MY PICK IS ELN [Archive] - Page 3 - Mr. Market's Stock Picking Forum

noshadyldy

01-27-2006, 11:30 AM

Noshadylady,
I didn't catch that Lehman article. What did it say?

Elanhttp://charts.prophet.net/servlet/ChartServer?symbol=ELN&price.display=0&duration=5d&interval=5&frequency=0&width=162&height=120&service=forbesTear Sheet (http://www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?tkr=ELN) Chart (http://www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/AdvancedChart.jhtml?symbol=ELN) News (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=ELN) http://images.forbes.com/media/assets/spacer_grey.gif

Biogen Idechttp://charts.prophet.net/servlet/ChartServer?symbol=BIIB&price.display=0&duration=5d&interval=5&frequency=0&width=162&height=120&service=forbesTear Sheet (http://www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?tkr=BIIB) Chart (http://www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/AdvancedChart.jhtml?symbol=BIIB) News (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=BIIB) http://images.forbes.com/media/assets/spacer_grey.gif

http://images.forbes.com/media/assets/spacer_white.gifhttp://images.forbes.com/media/assets/spacer_white.gifLehman Brothers analyst Richard Silver downgraded Elan (nyse: ELN (http://www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?tkr=ELN) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=ELN)- people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=ELN)) stock to “underweight” from “equal-weight” citing “overextended” valuation following a meeting with management of Elan’s partner Biogen Idec (nasdaq: BIIB (http://www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?tkr=BIIB) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=BIIB)- people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=BIIB)) concerning the companies’ multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri.

“In our opinion, at nearly $17 per share, Elan’s valuation more than fully reflects a successful upcoming FDA panel meeting, market re-entry, and future peak sales well in excess of even the most optimistic scenarios,” for Tysabri, the analyst said in a report Thursday.

In Feb. 2005, Biogen and Elan pulled the multiple sclerosis drug from the market.

Silver said that if Tysabri does return to the market, neurologists may be reluctant to broadly prescribe it due to the responsibility of the required strict patient monitoring.

The analyst added patients taking Tysabri face the risk of missing early signs of the rare but life-threatening side effect of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, a brain disorder linked to the drug.

spikefader

01-27-2006, 01:01 PM

I don't hear any mumbling about earnings release on 1/31 before open. Any quibbles about holding so much over earnings?Shady, great question! Make sure you hedge appropriately with puts.

Consider out of money March 7.50 strike puts (.ELNOU) currently 0.25x0.30.
Buy 1 put (??) for every 100 shares and be prepared to just eat the cost of em if it rallies from earnings. The insurance is worth it on any large position cuz if it plunges on bad news you'll be makin' money to cover the loss on the shares. And if it rallies then the cost of the puts have only cost you a small amount of your equity, which will be recovered if the stock rallies 3% from the news. Anything on top of that is creme.

Said another way, if you buy 10 puts for 1000 shares you hold, the puts cost you $300. If it tanks, you're covered, and the stock only needs to run +3% to pay for the cost of the puts that hedged you in times of uncertainty, i.e. earnings.

Now, I'm assuming 1 put for every 100 shares is gonna do it, but others may have thoughts on whether it will with out of money puts.

Opinions??

I decided to hold my long and will hedge myself and see what the market hands me.

kingofthehill

01-27-2006, 04:47 PM

Before you read the excerpt, remember that Davy's is Elan's stockbroker. Davy's Vice Chairman of it's board is K Mc; and he serves as Chairman of Board of Elan.

The excerpt from Beechlawn's post of Davy's flash ( thanks Beechlawn) is

"The emergence
of its AD pipeline will provide the key catalyst for the shares, one that investors
are only beginning to evaluate and that carries significant potential upside. "

Jack Gorman the analyst who wrote that is not given to going out on a limb.

Once the US tree stumps (ANALysts) begin to understand what is being said ( possibly the Wyeth analysts will tell them), Elan should see some serious commentary changes.

noshadyldy

01-30-2006, 12:13 PM

Thanks so much for that great advice. I would if I could. I've never set my account up to do options; never felt comfortable with them. That's changing and I will be modifying my trading account.

For now, I pulled out. I DO NOT trust earnings. I fear that much moolah has gone into the tysabri battle and may show a crummy impact on earnings. Just my feelings, that and the fact that the last two earnings weren't so hot either.

I'll be back in real soon though.

spikefader

01-30-2006, 12:54 PM

Sure noshady, any time.

I must commend your discipline favoring on the side of safety. You are a very clever lady! The temptation to benefit from a pop just isn't worth the risk on earnings I think - unless hedged well. Good luck with that next entry! :D

kingofthehill

01-31-2006, 06:46 AM

ELN beats by .05 Rev + 140m vs 127m

Elan trims losses, confident of Tysabri comeback
Tue Jan 31, 2006 04:52 AM ET

(Adds share price, analyst comment, details, background)
By Paul Hoskins

DUBLIN, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Elan (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a smaller-than-expected fourth-quarter loss on Tuesday, saying it was well placed for a return to profitability and confident its suspended multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri would make a comeback.

"Elan is optimistic about the return of Tysabri," it said in a statement ahead of a March 7 meeting of U.S. regulators to determine the fate of a drug that is seen as key to the Ireland-based company's future after a brush with bankruptcy in 2002.

Elan's (ELN.L: Quote, Profile, Research) net loss was $0.14 per share in the three months to the end of December, almost half the $0.27 per share loss seen in the same period of 2004 and better than the $0.185 median forecast of 10 analysts polled by Reuters.

That brought its full-year loss to $0.93 per share versus analyst forecasts of $0.985 a share and a $1.01 loss in 2004.

Revenues for the fourth quarter were $140.4 million compared to expectations of $127 million and $123.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2004. Full year sales rose to $490.3 million from the $481.7 million achieved in 2004.

"The progress we have made in improving our operating leverage will accelerate our return to profitability," Elan Chief Financial Officer Shane Cooke said. The company was forced to slash costs following Tysabri's withdrawal.

The outcome of the March 7 Food and Drug Administration meeting to weigh up the MS treatment's risks and benefits is the main concern for investors, analysts say, but in the meanwhile Tuesday's results showed the company to be in good shape.

"Elan this morning reported a strong set of results for the ongoing business ... driven by a combination of stronger revenue coupled with better-than-forecast cost control," said Ian Hunter, analyst at Goodbody stockbrokers.

WELL-POSITIONED

Tysabri, co-developed with U.S. partner Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , was withdrawn last February after a patient died from the rare brain and spinal-chord infection progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML).

Two further cases later emerged, one of which was fatal.

Nevertheless, Elan (ELN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it was well-positioned for a Tysabri relaunch and that it planned to spend $150 million to $170 million in 2006 on developing and marketing the drug.

Elan's planned investment assumes a potential re-marketing in the United States in the second quarter of 2006 and a possible European launch in the second half of this year.

Elan shares, which slid from over 20 euros to 2.30 euros in the wake of Tysabri's suspension, were up 2.1 percent at 12.15 euros in Dublin by 0925 GMT versus a flat Irish market .

The stock was 3.0 percent stronger at 12.21 euros in London.

Adjusted to exclude costs related to getting Tysabri back on the market, Elan said its loss before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA loss) was $216.9 million in the year to the end of December.

The company had set itself a goal of an adjusted EBITDA loss of $240 million to $260 million while analysts had expected an adjusted core loss of $245 million.

Elan said it expected negative 2006 EBITDA, excluding Tysabri related revenues, of $150 million to $175 million. As for revenues next year, Elan forecast that even without Tysabri they would exceed $500 million versus $490.3 million in 2005.

skiracer

01-31-2006, 07:02 AM

noshadyldy

01-31-2006, 09:12 AM

I'm holding 2000 shares from $13.85 which is my fourth trade in this stock over the last 6/7 weeks. Up close to 6 points with those four trades and was real close to taking the small change and running on this last position. Decided to take a chance on love and stuck with the position through the earnings report. Looks good from what they reported but still have to wait and see what the reaction is in the pre-market an at the open.
This report was decidedly better that what was kind of expected so hopefully it will bolster some positive support over an above the expectations of the return of Tysarbi. It's a move in the right direction.
Starting to move in the pre-market already. Just might see a nice momentum spike on this eps report today.

Yes, and as soon as reaction is determined, I'm squeezing back in. I already feel all squiggly and eager. Picture that comes to mind is the body movements and sweet expressions of anticipation on my four boys (Gabby, Black Jack, Oliver, and Casper...yes, they're CATS) as I'm trying to squeeze between them to set down their breakfast. Gosh, I love them!
ok, enough "sharing". GAME ON!

skiracer

01-31-2006, 09:32 AM

Yes, and as soon as reaction is determined, I'm squeezing back in. I already feel all squiggly and eager. Picture that comes to mind is the body movements and sweet expressions of anticipation on my four boys (Gabby, Black Jack, Oliver, and Casper...yes, they're CATS) as I'm trying to squeeze between them to set down their breakfast. Gosh, I love them!
ok, enough "sharing". GAME ON!

I'm a big cat person myself and can appreciate your feelings. About 6 months ago we lost our treasure Nissa. Things around here haven't been the same since we lost her and my wife isn't near being ready to bring another one in yet. She's just becoming able to talk about it without crying. We lean towards the long haired ones. Nissa was what they call a Maine Coon. Tri-colored and very big cat.
Let's hope this eps report propels ELN higher today.

spikefader

01-31-2006, 12:54 PM

kingofthehill

01-31-2006, 02:05 PM

4.5 million people have ALZHEIMER'S disease

http://www.tixx.com/essner.wma

this is just a short clip of the interview this morning on CNBC, NICE work Joe K on CNBC getting Esssner to talk about ALZ and mention THIER PARTNER ...ELAN

this stock can be $50.00 year end if Elan & WYeth are on track like they say they are ....'

listen to the audio clip

noshadyldy

01-31-2006, 02:29 PM

Oh Spike! That is just too darn cute!!!!
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
SKI, if you haven't seen it already, I replied to you privately.

noshadyldy

01-31-2006, 04:02 PM

CLOSED NEAR HOD.

SHAZZAMM!!!! OH GLORIOUS DAY!!!!
(AS ROBIN WILLIAMS WOULD SAY)

skiracer

01-31-2006, 04:37 PM

Nice to see that ELN price movement dudes.

Ski, you got some closet ELN tradin' goin' on dude. 6 points! Shoo, I wish I could be watchin' ya do it too. Ah well, I guess I'll just sit on my lazy butt now and hold this thing and see if I can catch you and Webs over the weeks ahead :D

And I like cats too. Who couldn't like this?!?
http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/2289/catcute6pt.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Cute picture Spike. I'm a big cat and dog lover. Something about the cats that I like with their independence and aloofness. I've been in an out of ELN about 4 trades now with this latest one from $13.85. Somewhere around 6 or more points total gain over the 4 trades especially with todays action. I almost bailed yesterday in front of the eps report but set a tighter stop late yesterday and figured I'd let it ride. Actually thought they were reporting after the close today an was surprised when I caught the report numbers on Briefing.com early this morning. Almost bought more this morning when it was still around $14.70/$14.80 but let it go. Have to be happy with todays action. Don't really know where I'm going with this position. I hate to give it back an I was thinking today at first was alot of momo guys but it did hold almost at the HOD on very high volume so maybe not an it will hold tomorrow. I'm thinking maybe to let it go and ride it out from now until the decision on Tysarbi comes down. It's not like I haven't taken a decent amount of gain out of it already but I will be placing a stop around $15.25/15.50 an honoring it. Can always re-enter at some point. $16 to $20 is the same to me as $20 to $24 as long as it moving up. You're back in nice shape with it again from that $12.62 entry. Just great an I love it.

Websman

01-31-2006, 05:20 PM

CLOSED NEAR HOD.

SHAZZAMM!!!! OH GLORIOUS DAY!!!!
(AS ROBIN WILLIAMS WOULD SAY)

It does feel good doesn't it?

I suppose I might as well let out some emotion also...

YEEEEHHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

kingofthehill

02-01-2006, 03:45 PM

spike what does your chart say ?

spikefader

02-01-2006, 04:05 PM

spike what does your chart say ?It's all good :D, 'cept the count has me confused today. Is this a 'b' up? Sheesh I dunno.

But channel-wise, it's clearer. Anyone wanting aggressive long tomorrow, take the pivot. If you're targeting 27.00 and still want a nice r/r then you don't wanna risk more than about 5% on it. Too rich for my blood, but maybe someone has tolerances considering we are likely looking at a 5th up on the weekly.

http://img380.imageshack.us/img380/1821/elnfeb15fc.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

(http://imageshack.us)

noshadyldy

02-03-2006, 10:06 AM

spikefader

02-03-2006, 12:14 PM

Well Cap'n.. the boat was sinkin', wanted to protect my ass ets, so I jumped, ya know. Now i'm out here with nothing but my water wings an' I can't find the dingy!!!

What to do, Cap'n Spike? WHAT TO DO????http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.giflol hilarious.

OK, today's 2% risk play for it. How long is this 'c' gonna be? Lord knows; just play the numbers til ya get it right.

Today, if it were me I wouldn't chase this now....but bid 15.22 S2 and be patient. If you miss it, wait for 'c' confirmation and then take the next day's intra pivot if you can find a good logical 2% risk stop under it.

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/6297/elnfeb34bc.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

noshadyldy

02-03-2006, 12:27 PM

Thanks Spike! You're the Best!

skiracer

02-03-2006, 01:25 PM

Well Cap'n.. the boat was sinkin', wanted to protect my ass ets, so I jumped, ya know. Now i'm out here with nothing but my water wings an' I can't find the dingy!!!

What to do, Cap'n Spike? WHAT TO DO????http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Noshadylady,

Premature "exit"ation. Patience and take your time to see which way the wind is going to blow. Better to wait until at least 10 AM on these situations to get a better feel for what's going on. A high percentage of these gaps up or down at the open usually end up coming back to the opening price or yesterday's closing price.

noshadyldy

02-03-2006, 02:22 PM

Websman

02-03-2006, 04:04 PM

Thanks, Ski. Good point and I will remember it. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif ( i jus get so noivous!)

Emotion is a traders worst enemy... This is all covered in my VTP. However, Noshady...You are a superior trader. :)

spikefader

02-03-2006, 04:32 PM

noshadyldy

02-04-2006, 01:30 AM

Will wait a minute guys. Don't be too critical here. We don't exactly know noshady's entry point and plan. She could have been following her plan perfectly and is now hearing criticism because of it. If she was trading her plan, then she should be commended with highest honors.

Personally, I think noshady was wise to feel red fear and protect capital, since today's drop could quite easily have done a full 'c' that extended below the 'a', and she would be regretting not following her rules/gut instinct, whatever it was.

Ski, the problem with waiting to see which way the wind blows is that the wind can blow mighty hard for mighy long, and it's foolish to pretend that ain't gonna happen with ELN when it's in a 'c' down. 'c' downs are corrective right? So why hold through a correction? I'm sure noshady is happy to buy lower (or higher for that matter) if she has to.

So I commend you noshady, on excellent action today (assuming that there was some technical reason for you to have red fear)

Personally, considering recent price action, I've decided to tighten my plan up and protect my gains now. If today's low doesn't hold I'll be taking profits, stepping aside and waiting for 'c' to confirm or try to nail it lower.

Heh webs, what does VTP stand for anyway?

*********
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Such an incredible gentlemen you are, Spike. You're my "champion."

As for my reasons well.. weekend coming up fast, market sliding, major indexes had dipped below their 50dma, fear indicator deeper into fear, and this trade was made with 1000 shares averaging 14.00. It went to 16. I didnt want to risk handing it all back like so many times before (VPHM acts the same way but not as bad and on a lighter scale so does RWC which is good for some swings.) Anyway, as I was saying... the idea of stop at even doesn't always appeal to me. In this case, I wanted to keep a good portion of it, figuring I could jump in when it didn't look quite so volatile.

And webs, as for my quip "i'm just so noivous." ponder that I am not always serious when I am joking. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif Sometimes I'm just funnin! And as for your statement of me being an oustanding trader.... since it's obvious to all that that is not true, you must be feeling chivalrous. Thank you.
Anyway, I'm beat.
Goodnight websboy
goodnight ski boy
goodnight Spikeboy. (YOUR my hero http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon12.gif )
don't forget to turn out the lights and lock the back door.

kingofthehill

02-04-2006, 02:11 PM

I see the stock trading sidways from here till the week before the hearing March 7th FDA meeting

skiracer

02-04-2006, 02:25 PM

Noshadylady,

Premature "exit"ation. Patience and take your time to see which way the wind is going to blow. Better to wait until at least 10 AM on these situations to get a better feel for what's going on. A high percentage of these gaps up or down at the open usually end up coming back to the opening price or yesterday's closing price.

Wasn't chastising her. Just trying to give her a heads up on how these gaps up and down at the open work out in the first half hour. Big % of them return to the opening price in that first half hour after the gap up or down. My own personal feelings are now that the FDA is getting ready to make some kind of a decision on the drug the tension will be building and the desire to be in for any spikes up will be heightening. Although Friday was a great day to get out at $15.40 or so and buy back in at $14.90 or so. But she did good and it's always good to make sure you get your gains out. I'm holding 4 points in my pocket already so I'm letting this last position ride it out until the FDA decision comes down. My bet is that they give it some kind of an approval if not a 100% ok to resume it's use. After all this time now is not exactly the time to be out of it being that we are getting so close to some decision. I don't think it is going to tank or drop real big from here especially with the recent eps report showing strength. This was a volitaile week throughtout the markets and that played a factor in it. Always good to exercise control and patience before reacting.

noshadyldy

02-05-2006, 12:06 AM

[QUOTE=skiracer]Wasn't chastising her.

Boys! Boys! PLease don't fight. <grin>
Actually you both have excellent points and I feel really special that both of you took the time to try to help me. It's so tricky with this one these days. And I am back in already and didn't do too badly at all. But I am the one that kept having those dreams I told you about that ELN takes off like a rocket and I'm pounding on my keyboard trying to reenter as this nationally televised stock event takes place. Listening to the commentators on TV during this, it reminded me of when a shuttle takes off. Let's hope it's not the Challenger.
Anyway, No offense taken anywhere. I truly appreciate the guidance and feedback whenever you are feeling generous enough to give it.
I really do feel very lucky to have you guys that try to help me.
Margie

spikefader

02-05-2006, 04:06 PM

skiracer

02-05-2006, 04:25 PM

:) @ no shady.

Ahhhhhh it's all good :)

But Ski, with respect, I disagree that the 'wait and see' at 10am despite a plan to protect profits is the best way to approach it. If price action on a gap down takes you out to protect profits, so be it. Temptation to hold in hope and 'wait and see' may be a receipe for disaster. Hope is exactly the sort of emotion that one has to resist, no matter how many % of the time a gap fills.

But perhaps it was the light-hearted and funny water wings post that projected to ski the exit was hasty and not according to a plan.

As noshady has shared, she had a plan and stuck to it. So well done dudette! :D

Actually that hold off until at least 10 AM strategy really only applies to initial buys whether long or short. Once you're in the position as Noshadylady was you should be sitting with a well placed stop on the position beforehand so the possibility of exiting the position because of getting stopped out is a distinct possibility. As you stated she did well for herself by protecting the gains. You an I on the other hand are still holding and just gave back from $15.95 to $15.27 while we sat on our hands. On my 2000 shares I just gave back $1360.00 over last Thursday and Friday. Jeez, who am I giving advice after that. She is a dudette! Yes that's the story, it was those water wings that took me off base. I've always been a softie for those water wings.

noshadyldy

02-05-2006, 04:36 PM

Oh my... (the warmest of smiles coming over my face)
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
GROUP CYBER HUG WITH YOU TWO GUYS!

m

spikefader

02-06-2006, 01:58 PM

:) noshady you be so nice! Backatcha.

Just took my 18% profit from ELN and will look for the 'c' completion entry...it doesn't look like it's near done yet.

spikefader

02-09-2006, 01:23 AM

I see today's action of ELN shows another -4% from my exit....And I've just done the weekly chart and it whispers a 'c' drop to 12.90ish, perhaps a fresh weekly channel.....who knows, maybe 'a' will hold.... but I doubt it since the SHS target is under price support (that 1st chart is a 15 day 90min).

I'm looking for a further 11% drop from current levels, which will be a very attractive support area.

This move now is corrective, and wisdom says stand aside and stalk another entry. Mildred ain't happy, but at least that 18% will buy her some new shoes :D hehe

http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/4154/elnshsfeb97kk.gif (http://imageshack.us)15-day 90 min chart

http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/6106/elnweeklyfeb85rx.gif (http://imageshack.us)

skiracer

02-09-2006, 07:13 AM

I sold the position off yesterday at $14.52. I had it at $15.95 and must be a chumperino to let it go that far without bailing. Just gave back nearly $3000. That's more than I made on the trade. The same old hope in one hand and shit in the other. See which one fills up first. I can't believe that I let 1.43 points get away from me at this stage in my developement. Spike an uppercut please. No make that a double with a goji backup. If it goes below $14 and farther it will make for another beautiful entry. My actions on this trade are a prime example of what not to do when you have the gains in your hand. I've been the biggest advocate of taking them off the table when you have them and then I go and do this. An I have no justification for staying in the trade to this point other than thinking that it was going to turn. Webs and Lye I called you guys on this before so please give me your best uppercut.

sisterwin2

02-09-2006, 08:05 AM

sisterwin2

02-09-2006, 08:06 AM

5 to 6 thousand, I mean

skiracer

02-09-2006, 09:11 AM

Ski, do you not have faith for March 7th? I am in at 10.90 and really want to hold till the MS drug is on the market. I saw my Doc yesterday and he let me know that when its back on the market he wants me on it. I will have MRI's done today for another Base line. My Doc is over the MS clinic at John Hopkins. He has much faith in the drug for those who can not take Avonex. I bet there are at least 5 to 5 thousand of us who go to his clinic. '

Oh, I forgot your a pure chartist, right?

Dena,
I basically trade on the technical side using charts as my primary tool. I try to hit the peaks and valleys when the chart indicates it. Sometimes I outsmart myself and sometimes I'm downright stupid as with this last position in ELN. I give advice and then don't practice what I preach sometimes. I really do hope that the drug makes it back on to the market for people like yourself. Other than that I'm could care less about the stock or the company. It's just another trade. In this last case I let it get away from me which was pure unadulterated stupidity on my part. Instead of taking advantage of an opportunity to take $4000 off the table I end up with $1340.00. I sincerely hope that the drug gets the required approvals for your sake. I'll be watching it closely for another entry opportunity.

kingofthehill

02-09-2006, 10:42 AM

Elan (Buy, Closing Price $14.40)
European rights to Prialt sold for a good price.
Analyst: Ian Hunter
Elan this morning announced that it has sold its rights to Prialt in Europe to the Japanese pharmaceutical company Eisai. The drug, which was launched in the US market in early 2006, is used for the treatment of severe, chronic pain and is administered by intrathecal pump. Elan is retaining the product rights in the US. Under the terms of the deal, Elan will receive $50m in cash on the closing of the deal and a further $10m in two years time or earlier if Prialt is launched in key European markets prior to early 2008. The deal also included a further $40m payable to Elan, contingent on Prialt achieving revenue related milestones in Europe. We see this as very good deal for Elan, given that it is receiving $50m up front for a product that only sold $6.3m in its initial year in the US market and for which we were forecasting sales of $7.2m in FY06. Our current value for the drug on a DCF basis is in the $25.5m to $31.3m range and with the US rights retained, more than half of this value remains with Elan.

sisterwin2

02-09-2006, 11:02 AM

Dena,
I'll be watching it closely for another entry opportunity.

This statment is enough to make me stay in...

Any hey, when I clear 1000$ best believe you will read it here

Websman

02-09-2006, 04:06 PM

I will be selling either on March 7th or the week before, depending on the share price.

You can pretty much figure that Tysabri IS coming back ,which in my Vulcan opinion, means that the share will already have Tysabri's return priced in. After I sell, I will watch the share price for a while for an entry at a lower price.

If the Alzheimers thing works out ELN will be very huge, but that should take a bit longer.

These all all just a Vulcan opinion though...

spikefader

02-15-2006, 07:59 PM

Chart update folks.

http://img425.imageshack.us/img425/8058/elnfeb156tk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Websman

02-15-2006, 08:10 PM

UPDATE 2-US FDA allows limited Tysabri study use
Wed Feb 15, 2006 3:46 PM ET

(Recasts; adds additional FDA comments, analyst quotes)

By Lisa Richwine

WASHINGTON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Biogen Idec <BIIB.O> and Elan Corp. <ELN.I> <ELN.N> can resume use of their multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri in patients who had been taking it as part of a study, U.S. regulators said on Wednesday.

The Food and Drug Administration said it "remains very concerned" that patients who take Tysabri may develop a rare, potentially fatal brain infection. Officials will decide in late March if widespread sales may begin again.

The companies voluntarily pulled Tysabri from the market in February 2005 after a small number of patients developed a brain and spinal cord infection known as progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML. Two patients with PML died.

"The currently available information (is) not adequate to clearly define the level of risk or the exact circumstances when this risk occurs," the FDA said on its Web site.

The agency noted that the injectable drug "is a very effective product" for MS, a progressive autoimmune disorder that can cause blurred vision, weakness, poor muscle coordination, and loss of memory and mental function.

The FDA said it was reasonable to resume clinical trials of Tysabri, with close monitoring for side effects, so researchers could gain information to better understand the risks.

The companies said they would resume trials of Tysabri as a stand-alone treatment within weeks.

"This is a positive signal the FDA is more comfortable with this drug than many people have thought," said Matt Stephani, a portfolio manager for Idex Great Companies.

Stephani said he still thought the drug had the potential for sales of more than $1 billion a year. If approved, he said Tysabri would most likely be cleared for use as a stand-alone medicine, rather than in combination with existing drugs such as Biogen's own Avonex. He said serious safety problems were seen in patients who took both drugs, not in those who took Tysabri alone.

Christopher Raymond, an analyst with Robert W. Baird & Co., said a mid-year relaunch of Tysabri already was factored into Biogen Idec's earnings guidance, so the resumption of use in trials was "probably not a surprise."

He forecast worldwide sales of $23 million this year, $120 million in 2007 and $175 million in 2008.

"From what we hear, patients are clamoring to get this drug back on market, but the willingness of neurologists to take this risk with their patients is harder to gauge," Raymond said.

An FDA advisory committee is scheduled to meet March 7 to discuss whether Tysabri should return to the U.S. market. The panel's opinion is important because the FDA usually follows recommendations from advisory committees.

Biogen shares rose as much as 4 percent on news that trials could soon resume. In late-afternoon trading, Biogen was up $1.33, or 3 percent, at $45.71. Elan shares rose as much as 8.2 percent and were up 57 cents, or 4 percent, at $14.66 on the New York Stock Exchange.

spikefader

02-15-2006, 08:20 PM

Ya know it's a bit concerning that the pop got sold hard...and after hours it traded down to 14.25.....
If it were genuine bullishness I would have expected it to close at it's highs, and trade up after hours, possibly gap up on volume tommorrow.....but instead it hits its head right on channel resistance, gives a channel short, and a wicked hourly candle that doesn't hint bull. If it loses 14.16 support I think it's in some trouble...

But I note that the 'c' was confirmed today by that pop. That means 'c' support is the low 4 days ago at 13.85. That's crucial support boys and girls. If that fails, ya got 'c' failure and potential for 10.00 in a hurry.

Gotta say; the chart action lately has sucked bilge water. :(

kingofthehill

02-16-2006, 07:14 AM

im nor oworried about the phoney after hours hedge trading with elan you can see that all the time, i buy when these fools throw out free stock.

$30.00 plus by year end

from Davy:
Elan (ELN US)
FDA removes clinical hold on Tysabri—an incremental positive
Previous close: $14.54 Target: $18.00 (31/01/06; previously $13.00, issued 09/08/05) Analyst: jack.gorman@davy.ie
The FDA has finally lifted the clinical hold that was placed on Tysabri at the end of February last year. This now allows
Elan/Biogen Idec to resume dosing in the open-label safety trials which had commenced and were part of the original
submission for the product. Though this is a separate FDA decision to a commercial re-launch, it is nonetheless an
incremental positive for the product as the advisory committee meeting approaches.
That the FDA could lift the clinical hold ahead of any decision on re-launch is understandable, given that clinical trials are a
much lower-risk and controlled way of exposing patients to drug treatment. Patients who enrolled in the Phase III MS
programme and participated in the safety evaluation are eligible for the study—this could be up to 2,000 patients. We would
anticipate a high percentage will enrol.
One should also note that the advisory committee meeting is likely to extend into March 8th, due to the large number of
patients planning to speak in the public forum.
Meanwhile, Biogen Idec has reported its results. Avonex revenues grew by 12% in Q4, to $413m. Full-year Avonex sales
increased 9% to $1.54bn. In 2005, US sales were $939m (flattish) and international sales increased 22% to $604m

spikefader

02-16-2006, 11:36 AM

im nor oworried about the phoney after hours hedge trading with elan you can see that all the time, i buy when these fools throw out free stock.
$30.00 plus by year end
lol that "after-hours phoney hedge trading" almost a year ago wasn't too phoney; overnight smash of -67%. I find it difficult to believe you could ever dream to say that afterhours price movement is phoney. Dude!

The way I'm seeing it is bulls have a hoop to jump through today. The r/r sits in favor of bears from these levels. Just took some short 14.65 with 1% risk to target 31%. r/r is 31!!! Shoo.

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/8715/elnfeb168tr.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Websman

02-16-2006, 08:55 PM

lol that "after-hours phoney hedge trading" almost a year ago wasn't too phoney; overnight smash of -67%. I find it difficult to believe you could ever dream to say that afterhours price movement is phoney. Dude!

The way I'm seeing it is bulls have a hoop to jump through today. The r/r sits in favor of bears from these levels. Just took some short 14.65 with 1% risk to target 31%. r/r is 31!!! Shoo.

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/8715/elnfeb168tr.gif (http://imageshack.us/)

That's a very risky short dude...jejeje

spikefader

02-16-2006, 10:04 PM

That's a very risky short dude...jejeje

lol....yes, almost as risky as a long right now :D lol

But seriously, it's a valid short setup; channel short, descending triangle (with "phony" afterhours breakdown I see hehe). r/r is pretty nice so I feel good about the plan.

King, just tell me to hush if yall don't appreciate me posting this bearish stuff.

http://img117.imageshack.us/img117/7838/elnintrafeb169nr.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Websman

02-16-2006, 10:05 PM

lol....yes, almost as risky as a long right now :D lol

But seriously, it's a valid short setup; channel short, descending triangle (with "phony" afterhours breakdown I see hehe). r/r is pretty nice so I feel good about the plan.

King, just tell me to hush if yall don't appreciate me posting this bearish stuff.

http://img117.imageshack.us/img117/7838/elnintrafeb169nr.gif (http://imageshack.us/)

No problem Spike. It's ok to be wrong. Just be sure to set your stop tight. jejeje

spikefader

02-16-2006, 10:27 PM

No problem Spike. It's ok to be wrong. Just be sure to set your stop tight. jejeje
http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/3723/hilarious3ve.gif (http://imageshack.us)

noshadyldy

02-17-2006, 10:13 AM

spikefader

02-17-2006, 10:37 AM

Spike,
You're set up for a potential 31% gain (on your short) yet your target line extends down to approx. 14.15 or so. You do mean you expect it to go to 10ish, no? And why 10ish? because of 200 dma? larger stockchart shows probable decline to 13.20.
please don't stop being voice of contradiction to the perpetual cheerleaders. I love that side of things but am painfully aware that this serpents head can turn and bite in a flash. lets never get too comfortable when handling something like that.
thanks.
Hiya noshady! Very wise to not get too comfortable! It's really dangerous to marry a stock and convince yourself of a bias; it makes seeing the other side of the equation much harder. Hard to react to stuff when one is devoted cheerleader ya know?

That green target line wasn't my short target, it's merely the green triangle target. My target I based on where I saw solid support, and there is also supporting triangle target for that too; see below chart.

This morning you've got a breakdown from the inside day yesterday, down to 14.13, which is below all that vol by price support that came in after that news release.... which ain't a good thing fer bulls.

http://img424.imageshack.us/img424/8948/elnshortfeb179dv.gif (http://imageshack.us)

I was also messin' around with fibs last night for ELN, and noticed the 50% resistance at the recent high....and now perhaps a logic support area for my short is the 50% retrace back down.

http://img424.imageshack.us/img424/3761/elnfibs5em.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Good luck folks! Make 'em pretty.

Runner

02-17-2006, 10:38 AM

Bull’s better step in ELN as it threatens to fall out of the channel. MA’s are tight and so a nice move out might be in the near future.

Nice chart work Spike!

noshadyldy

02-17-2006, 12:22 PM

noshadyldy

02-17-2006, 12:31 PM

Spike,
I just noticed that you do not drag your channel lines out to the far edge. At what point do you stop the drag and why? That seems to make the difference but does not make sense to me. Have I been doing this wrong all along, being led astray by strayed lines? All this time? Who's job was it to watch me anyway???

spikefader

02-17-2006, 01:47 PM

I'll be so dipped! Spike, when I saw your chart from stockcharts, I compared it to mine, as i said, mine showed the lower channel going to 13.20 ish. I tried every which way (I wish I could get it to copy and post). but no matter what, my lower line does not agree with yours. Lets see... I started from the lowest point in the oct/nov block. Put the marker right on the lowest point and carefully drug it to the edge. Nope! in stockharts2 it now shows 13.00.
Furthermore, what is confusing me is if your's is accurate, why wouldn't you be concerned,as a short, that it bounced right off "your" lower channel of 14ish?

Do you have any idea why my charts are differing from yours like this? Anyone else with differing charts.

Spike,
I just noticed that you do not drag your channel lines out to the far edge. At what point do you stop the drag and why? That seems to make the difference but does not make sense to me. Have I been doing this wrong all along, being led astray by strayed lines? All this time? Who's job was it to watch me anyway???

OK, noshady, you are probably using log scale, as opposed to linear scale, which is what I prefer. You will see the option underneath price plot attributes. I think that will make the difference for you.

Re: concern for a short, yes, that was a major channel long that you speak of, however since then, there was a minor channel short (refer to chart), and the intraday descending triangle yesterday confirms the short setup, and other price action and volume notations I've made adds support to the logic that short is the correct bias.

But while 13.85 stands as support, especially considering it is a 'c' long, then medium-term and long-term Bulls still have a few legs to stand on. However, if 13.85 fails, there goes the legs and ELN long is a very risky play, considering the triangle projection down to $10.00.

As to your last post about dragging channel lines out to the far edge, what I do is drag the channel until I see a channel long or a channel short day, and then stop the channel there, and place the arrow there so that everyone can see that it was a channel day. If I continued to drag the channel beyond that point one wouldn't know that it was a channel day. But as far as finding the price for the current channel location, one must drag it to the current day. Does that make sense?

Websman

02-20-2006, 09:52 PM

21/02/06

Alzheimer’s drugs to show profit

By Geoff Percival
ELAN could be well-positioned to start profiting from its anti-Alzheimer’s products over the next decade, with two of its drugs for treating the degenerative disease potentially delivering combined annual sales of around $5 billion (€4.18bn) by 2015.

Goodbody Stockbrokers has forecast that, on current market price levels, the two Alzheimer's drugs in which Elan is collaborating with Wyeth Pharmaceuticals with the production names AAB-001 and ACC-001 could generate sales of $2.7bn (€2.26bn) and $2.2bn (€1.84bn) respectively by 2015.

The two drugs are in Phase II and Phase I of development respectively and could, potentially, be approved for market within four years.

In total, Elan has varying degrees of interest from full production to royalty/property rights in five Alzheimer's drug products.

It still has property rights to an Alzheimer's treatment, which is currently in Phase II of development by the US-based pharmaceutical company Ely Lilly.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/pport/web/business/Full_Story/did-sgyPHxAwGxcLcsgDQQ5wn3uAIg.asp

noshadyldy

02-20-2006, 09:56 PM

Thanks Spike, Yes it does make sense. Perfect sense.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

spikefader

02-24-2006, 02:23 PM

Hiya ELN fans.

Chart update fer yall.

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/1889/elnfeb244vh.gif (http://img232.imageshack.us/my.php?image=elnfeb246xu.gif)

TFred

02-24-2006, 04:50 PM

Hiya ELN fans.

Chart update fer yall.

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/1889/elnfeb244vh.gif (http://img232.imageshack.us/my.php?image=elnfeb246xu.gif)

Greetings Spike,

That triangle target looks like volume support as well,are you still holding short?

cordially Tom

spikefader

02-24-2006, 04:58 PM

Yep still holdin'. Stop to even of course and ride it out.....unless of course something significant happens in the meantime to change the bias.

http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/7001/elnfeb24wedgebreak7qm.gif (http://imageshack.us)

sisterwin2

02-24-2006, 05:34 PM

kingofthehill

02-26-2006, 05:05 PM

Sunday Business Post
By Eamon Quinn, business editor
Elan confident of Alzheimer's breakthrough

"Elan's head of global research, Lars Ekman, has spoken of his confidence of a potential early breakthrough in its trials into Alz's disease.
"Elan is conducting two so called Phase 11 trials with drugs giant Wye into AAB-001 treatment which is seeking not only to control but also to reverse the devasting memory loss which the disease wreaks on patients.
"Elan in the past has said that important data signals from the trias would be ready in early part of 2007.
"But in an interview with the Sunday Business Post, Ekman said that the results coulc be delivered as early at this year.
"'I am very enthusiastic for two reasons,' Ekman said. 'First because of the unmet need and second as a scientist I am driven by data. When you have strong data in animal models which is then confirmed in man then your confidence goes up. We have been in clinical trials for about two and half years'.
"Meanwhile, Elan is waiting for clearance from the US FDA next mth on whether it can resume sales of this Multible sclerosis drug Ty. A year ago Elan shares collapsed....

"On Alzmr's, Ekman said the was "Confident" about the coutcome of the trials ointo AAB-001 programme. 'I have never been more intrigued by any programme I have been involved in, including Ty, over the last 25yrs' he said.

"Industry estimates suggest that 12 million patients in western countries have Alzmrs. In the US, the cost of treating 4.5 million patients have been estimated at $100 billion a year"

On the front pages of Money & Markets

Websman

02-26-2006, 05:09 PM

A successful Alzheimer drug would be huge. We could see ELN skyrocket in the next few....uh...uh...we....uh...What was I talking about???

Websman

02-26-2006, 05:09 PM

If ELN dips back around 13.50, I'm loading up... :)

spikefader

02-28-2006, 10:28 AM

http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/4235/wileystop3ug.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

02-28-2006, 12:38 PM

ELN intraday showing where the resistance is....

Caution longs.......remember folks, the 'c' has failed now.... and 'c' failures have a high potential to lead to significant moves... pay that due caution when considering your stop location and total trade plan.

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/7567/elnintrafeb282ce.gif (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

02-28-2006, 12:45 PM

http://img501.imageshack.us/img501/9861/elndayfeb282ms.gif (http://imageshack.us)

TFred

02-28-2006, 01:38 PM

skiracer

02-28-2006, 01:46 PM

Greetings Spike,

As someone late to the short setup,is this r/r valid,short now a 13.28,stop 13.50 with a 10.00 target?

Risking .22 to capture 3.28,almost 15/1 reward,does the chart support that stop?

cordially Tom

I wouldn't get to crazy with this drop. You never know it could go to $10 but I would bet it will stabilize before that and present a great buying opportunity. Might be alittle late to the party but try it and keep a real tight leash on it. I'm waiting for the bottom to present itself for that long play.

spikefader

02-28-2006, 02:03 PM

Greetings Spike,

As someone late to the short setup,is this r/r valid,short now a 13.28,stop 13.50 with a 10.00 target?

Risking .22 to capture 3.28,almost 15/1 reward,does the chart support that stop?

cordially Tom
Dude, sorry I couldn't answer quicker. Yes, that's a wonderful trade setup. Stop just over the 13.50 resistance......and look at it now.....falling hard on volume. Hope you took it!

spikefader

02-28-2006, 02:10 PM

I love it ski; it's what makes a market huh! Dunno why you bet it's gonna hold..... I guess 'c' failures haven't made an impression on you??
http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/9083/elnintrafeb28a9pp.gif (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

02-28-2006, 02:11 PM

and there goes the low dudes...... Uh oh Mildred!

spikefader

02-28-2006, 02:16 PM

http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/2044/eln129wf.gif (http://imageshack.us)

TFred

02-28-2006, 02:19 PM

noshadyldy

02-28-2006, 02:27 PM

EYHEA! OH GLORIOUS DAY!!!!!!!

so would the proper cheer of shorts for KA CHING now be

GNIHC AK (sound German or actually more like a fur ball ) or just KC (for short)http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Jim Smith

02-28-2006, 02:28 PM

ELN looks to be repeating last year's collapse like clock work.....This is why I look at year over year chart comparisons.....History has a funny way of repeating.

spikefader

02-28-2006, 02:35 PM

Greetings Spike,

I missed it,should have had the guts to trade the setup,I need to look fro a little strength to sell into.Was ready to pull at 12.50,and down she dropped before my eyes.

cordially TomI'd let it go for now dude....I think ya missed the bus and it's gonna be hard to trade from here I think.........maybe sell the fib retraces from 13.50 to the low, which are 12.68 (50%) and 12.49 (38.2%).

Volume suggestive we may have seen the low for today.....I'd stalk it a while longer if I were you......while I see what I can make of the count.....perhaps look for a 'c' short somewhere.....

spikefader

02-28-2006, 02:39 PM

OK, what have we got here......... ELN is doing an expanding daily channel long, and there is a distinct inverted SHS forming now.....the R shoulder forming as I type. A setup long is buy 12.10 with stop under lod, which is only 1.8% risk....

I'd caution against shorting this for now......

spikefader

02-28-2006, 02:43 PM

ELN long setup: Not sure I see the r/r as worth it......

http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/2481/elnfeb283yv.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/2600/elnintra281mw.gif (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

02-28-2006, 02:47 PM

OK, I covered here taking 16% profit on the short. I'll look to reshort it if it sets up.

TFred

02-28-2006, 02:48 PM

Greetings,

Gotta love volatility,someone with ''chops'' is making money.

cordially Tom

DSteckler

02-28-2006, 02:49 PM

When did you short it, Spike?

spikefader

02-28-2006, 02:56 PM

For shorter's interest, ELN now at the 38.2% retrace area and stalling a bit.......

perhaps a play is short 12.45 with .15 stop to target new lows to target 10.00 pretty good r/r there.

spikefader

02-28-2006, 03:00 PM

Here's the setup.....you're obviously aiming for the inverted SHS to be overcome by the fact that it's still a 'c' failure gap down day on high volume and for the next hour may dribble down to lows.....

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/2897/elnfeb281min2ad.gif (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

02-28-2006, 03:03 PM

http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/9265/elnfill4xn.gif (http://imageshack.us)

skiracer

02-28-2006, 03:10 PM

spikefader

02-28-2006, 03:11 PM

When did you short it, Spike?14.65 after the news got sold. Risk at the time was 1%.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=41619&postcount=1049

noshadyldy

02-28-2006, 03:15 PM

stockcharts now bearish to projected 8.00. states double bottom failure of today's date

spikefader

02-28-2006, 03:19 PM

This is almost exactly what it did the last time is fell to these areas. Stopped and bottomed around $12.20/12.40 area and reversed. Went on for some considerable gains after that. If I remember correctly your entry was $12.58 or so that day. I like it long from here but will wait for tomorrow. This is real cheapo right now.
Well the count was very different ski. Back then it was a 'a' correction. Today, it's following a 'c' failure gap down on volume. And this time there is volume by price overhead to fuel the drop... I'm not so certain it's gonna bounce from today's low......12.88 should resist hard.

I'm going to stalk that area for another entry. That'll be the 61.8% retrace of that last impulse down, and also the inverted SHS target area. Tom, that 12.88 area might be worth 2% risk to target 10.30 for r/r of 10.3......

spikefader

02-28-2006, 03:55 PM

12.88 .... worth 2% risk to target 10.30 for r/r of 10.3......
Short 12.84 and I'll give it 4% risk for now.

spikefader

02-28-2006, 04:02 PM

ELN intra TA

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/3296/elnintraobs6fv.gif (http://imageshack.us)
there is a little neckline break
http://img492.imageshack.us/img492/5104/elnneckbreak2tu.gif (http://imageshack.us)

noshadyldy

02-28-2006, 04:53 PM

Websman

02-28-2006, 05:04 PM

Isn't March 7th suppose to be the big day of announcement? Seems awful close to the date here for all these shannanigans to be going on. I'm short since 14.59 but sure don't want to get caught holdn' da bag! KABOOM!

Trading will now be halted for the two days of the conference. It could be good or it could be bad. The VTP indicators are presently showing a downtrend. I'm not going to risk it either way.

spikefader

02-28-2006, 05:09 PM

KABOOM........I'm short since 14.59 !
hehe noshady!!!!! :D Awesome decision that one! Well done and congrats! woohoo.
http://img493.imageshack.us/img493/3632/star21jr.gif http://img493.imageshack.us/img493/381/party7zg.gif

Isn't March 7th suppose to be the big day of announcement? Seems awful close to the date here for all these shannanigans to be going on.but sure don't want to get caught holdn' da bag!
lol ya shannanigans alright. Gap down on high volume......now trading down after hours to 12.50......hmmmm it looks sick.....is some bad news on the way??

I'll be looking to tighten this stop tomorrow....and I don't think I'll hold short through announcement news, noshady.

Sorry for all the bearish stuff goin' on right now any longs.....Webs, King, sisterwin......I'm assuming you're all holding long. 10.00 will be a good place to add I think. Too far under 10.00 support and I'd be concerned about it falling to 6.00......eesh.
http://img493.imageshack.us/img493/2922/uyck0zk.gif

Websman

02-28-2006, 05:14 PM

Sorry for all the bearish stuff goin' on right now any longs.....Webs, King, sisterwin......I'm assuming you're all holding long. 10.00 will be a good place to add I think. Too far under 10.00 support and I'd be concerned about it falling to 6.00......eesh.
http://img493.imageshack.us/img493/2922/uyck0zk.gif

No problem Spike. It's time for me to take my huge profit and move on. I unloaded half of my position last month and will dump the rest tomorrow.

Besides, I could use the extra cash so I can continue my VTP research.

noshadyldy

02-28-2006, 05:17 PM

Trading will now be halted for the two days of the conference. It could be good or it could be bad. The VTP indicators are presently showing a downtrend. I'm not going to risk it either way.

WHAT???? TRADING HALTED???? IS THAT SOME KIND OF A JOKE?????? DON'T SEE ANYTHING ON THAT. WEBS, IF YOU'RE M AKING THIS UP, I'M COMING DOWN THERE AND GIVING YOU A MASSIVE SWIRLY!!!!!

spikefader

02-28-2006, 05:23 PM

Elan Stung by Research Report (http://www.thestreet.com/_mktwrm/stocks/biotech/10270901.html?cm_ven=CBSM&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA)
while 92% of doctors believe the drug could be a valuable therapy to patients, only 59% think it should return to the market

The survey involved 140 neurologists, 27% of whom have prescribed Tysabri.

At most, doctors expect to use the drug in 10% of MS patients

Only 6% of physicians would use Tysabri as a first-line therapy on newly diagnosed patients
Explains the volatility down today......

spikefader

02-28-2006, 05:25 PM

lol noshady. It ain't halted!! hehe It's still meandering down after hours to 12.43....

Websman

02-28-2006, 05:26 PM

noshadyldy

02-28-2006, 05:51 PM

I will be halted for two days starting March 7th... Not today.

4:30PM Elan announces suspension of trading of its shares on March 7 for up to 2 days (ELN (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=eln&d=t)) : Co announces it has agreed with the Irish Stock Exchange, the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom, and the New York Stock Exchange to suspend trading of its securities during the scheduled FDA Advisory Committee meeting to review Tysabri, commencing March 7, for up to two days.

OOOHHHHH! I Misread, thought you were saying it was halted NOW. err.. never mind.

I had my swirly dunking hand all geared up and everything!

But on another note, what good does it do to halt trading? The answer seems logical,even to this nonvulcan womanoid, but trading was halted for that tragic 9-11 disaster also. Alot of good that did. Market still reopened in the toilet.

kingofthehill

02-28-2006, 07:43 PM

there was an article planted by TEVA a competing MS drug to all media outlets today it was refuted late in the day ... but some damage was done.. i heard that a very positive NEJM article will be out sometime Wed.

the crazy ride continues..........

skiracer

02-28-2006, 08:10 PM

I've said it before an I say it again it's strictly news driven. You can throw the charts and TA out the window on this stock until that decision is made.
This morning Piper Jaffray issues a lowering of their guidance from $15 to $14 and says that out of 192 neurologists, how many neurologists are there in the US, 92 % believe the drug could be beneficial in some manner and 59 % say it should not return given the risks of it happening again. On that number the stock falls $1.25 or 8.96 %. They interview 192 neurologists. Is that a consensus?
If in the morning some other brokerage or analysist comes out with another survey on a more positive note or anything positive there will be another rush to get back in. I think everyone is looking at their gains and getting antsy now that it's getting down to the wire. Preservation of capital. I don't think that $10 couldn't happen but I don't see it happening an as much as I rely on the TA side of all of this I don't see where it means as much as the newsbreaks with this stock.

stocks54

02-28-2006, 11:43 PM

It's going to be hard seeing all the profit evaporate.

jiesen

03-01-2006, 12:43 AM

But on another note, what good does it do to halt trading? The answer seems logical,even to this nonvulcan womanoid, but trading was halted for that tragic 9-11 disaster also. Alot of good that did. Market still reopened in the toilet.

In this case, the halt is to prevent any shenanigans and the resulting legal boondoggles that might ensue if some joker decides to prematurely leak news out of the FDA panel meeting into the market.

spikefader

03-01-2006, 01:09 AM

I've said it before an I say it again it's strictly news driven. You can throw the charts and TA out the window on this stock until that decision is made.
ski, eekads man! Haste thou lost thou mind! lolol

Seriously though, charts don't lie; only people do! And the chart was whispering what happened today for days......the TA has been pretty spot on for it recently....my entry the other day was pretty close to perfect dude; 1% risk and scooped 16%. Today's channel long with SHS was good for an intraday run (not that I saw the r/r value), and then the 12.88 resistance area was pretty good TA that had me +3% afterhours at one stage and open with green hope on it....

Throw TA out the window!!!! I think not! hehe

sirtuck

03-01-2006, 01:30 AM

Eyetech Eye Drug
04:26 2004-08-28
Eyetech Pharmaceuticals Inc. (EYET.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said trading in its common stock was halted on Friday before a U.S. advisory panel meets to review its experimental drug to stop vision loss in elderly patients.
A panel of outside experts that advises the Food and Drug Administration will review the drug, called Macugen, which is injected into the eye to treat age-related macular degeneration, a disease that destroys all eyesight except peripheral vision.
Eyetech and Pfizer Inc. (PFE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) are developing the medicine, informs Reuter.
Nasdaq - commentary - research) was halted for most of the day Friday because of a Food and Drug Administration advisory committee meeting to review the small, New York-based biotech's experimental eye disease drug.
The panel meeting follows a staff report by the FDA Thursday that concluded the company's drug Macugen, has "a favorable safety profile and is an effective treatment."
Eyetech is collaborating with Pfizer (PFE:NYSE - commentary - research), the world's largest drugmaker, whose stock was not halted.
In a brief statement late Friday afternoon, Eyetech said the panel did not take a formal vote, "in accordance with the rolling submission process." The company provided no further information on the meeting, but said it and Pfizer were "pleased to have the opportunity to meet with the FDA and its advisory committee and look forward to further dialogue with the agency
Eyetech added $1.66 to $40.60 when shares finally opened for trading late in the session. Shares jumped more than 11% Thursday in heavy volume -- about 12 times their daily average of about 574,000 shares.
The disease -- called wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) -- distorts, diminishes and destroys eyesight. Tests of the drug Macugen suggest greater hope in retarding the progress of a disease for which the few current treatments are often meager, expensive and impermanent.
The staff report also says the panel should ask several key questions when reviewing Macugen. Most importantly, it said the experts should determine if sufficient data has been submitted. It also says the panel should decide if additional analyses of current data are needed.
A favorable opinion by an FDA advisory committee doesn't guarantee approval by the full agency, but the FDA usually follows the advice of its advisors.
As its name clearly states, the biggest cause of wet age-related macular degeneration is advancing age. It is the "single leading cause of irreversible severe vision loss in developed countries," the FDA report says." [Wet AMD] "remains an area of high unmet medical need and is a major public health issue in an aging population." The disease affects an estimated 1.6 million Americans and is growing at about 200,000 U.S. patients per year, reports the Street.
According to Forbes, Biotech company Eyetech Pharmaceuticals Inc. said it is optimistic about the Food and Drug Administration's advisory panel review for its age-related blindness treatment Macugen.
"The meeting couldn't have gone better," said Eyetech spokeswoman Karin Hehenberger.

kingofthehill

03-01-2006, 06:34 AM

Elan (Buy, Closing Price $12.70 ); Tysabri impacts the immune system - not new news
Analyst: Ian Hunter T +353-1-6410498 E ian.g.hunter@goodbody.ie

Elan and Biogen Idec’s share prices fell yesterday as Teva circulated copies of a paper that University of Texas researchers propose to
present at this year’s American Academy of Neurology meeting in April, that claims to show that Tysabri can deplete immune-system
cells as much as HIV. The manuscript has been submitted to a scientific journal but ***has not yet been accepted***.

No data are yet available
as to: (i) which patient population this refers to; (ii) over what period of time the immuno-suppression was recorded; (iii) what percentage
of the patients showed that strong degree of immuno-suppression; and (iv) how the depletion compares to other like-action drugs. As
the action of Tysabri is, by nature, immuno-suppresive, some degree of depletion in immune system cells would be expected. Indeed,
the effect of the drug on the immune system will have been one of the main factors studied in depth during the extensive safety review
carried out on the 3,000 patients formerly on Tysabri and will be addressed during the Advisory Committee meeting. We remain
comfortable that the drug will return to the market as more than just a second line treatment.
Share trading to be suspended during Advisory Committee meeting on the 7 th and 8th of March
In separate news, Elan announced last night that it has agreed with the Irish Stock Exchange, The UK Financial Services Authority and
the New York Stock Exchange to suspend trading of its securities over the period that the FDA Advisory Committee is sitting to review
Tysabri on 07 and 08 March. Biogen Idec had already announced similar action a couple of weeks ago.

kingofthehill

03-01-2006, 10:01 AM

Good detail on TEVA's repulsive behavior in this - Rx1

Drug's approval dwarfed by worries over another
By Penni Crabtree
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
March 1, 2006

Shares of Biogen Idec fell about 6 percent yesterday despite the biotechnology company gaining regulatory approval for a new use for its top-selling cancer drug, Rituxan, as a treatment for rheumatoid arthritis.

The additional approval for Rituxan – a drug developed by San Diego's former Idec Pharmaceuticals and co-marketed with South San Francisco's Genentech – was overshadowed by speculation about the fate of another Biogen Idec drug, the multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri. A key advisory committee of the Food and Drug Administration will deliberate next week about whether to recommend Tysabri's return to the market.

The drug, co-marketed by Cambridge, Mass.-based Biogen Idec and Irish drugmaker Elan Corp., was withdrawn last year after it was linked to a rare but often fatal brain disorder called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML. The disease is caused by the activation of a virus that is commonly found in healthy adults but usually remains dormant; three patients who took Tysabri developed PML, and two of them died.

A flurry of news – reports by wary Wall Street analysts that downplayed Tysabri's ultimate utility and a negative scientific paper on Tysabri circulated by a rival drug company – contributed yesterday to the companies' stumbling stocks.

Shares of Elan, which like Biogen Idec maintains a research hub in San Diego, fell 9 percent, or $1.25, to close at $12.70. Biogen Idec's share price lost $2.85 to close at $47.25.

A report yesterday by Piper Jaffray analysts speculated that Tysabri's use by physicians will be limited if the product returns to the market. A survey of 140 neurologists found that only 10 percent would prescribe Tysabri for their patients, and then only for those who fail other available treatments.

A summary of a research paper, posted on the Web site of the American Academy of Neurology, concluded that Tysabri can deplete immune-system cells as much as HIV. PML typically afflicts AIDS patients because they have weakened immune systems.

Tysabri's effect on the immune system might similarly increase patients' risk of contracting the PML-associated virus, the researchers said in the study. The study will be presented at the academy's annual meeting April 5 in San Diego.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, the Israel-based maker of a rival multiple sclerosis drug, Copaxone, circulated copies of the abstract yesterday to the media through an outside spokesman. That action raised hackles at Elan, which is counting on Tysabri's return to shore up its fragile fortunes.

“Other competitors will try to do everything they can to bring about criticism,” said Lars Ekman, head of research and development for Elan. “These are speculative exercises done by the competition, positioned and designed to undermine a new drug.”

Biogen Idec spokeswoman Amy Brockelman said it would be “inappropriate” for the company to comment because of the American Academy of Neurology's policy to embargo the data until it is presented at the April 5 meeting.

The risk of contracting the rare brain disorder can be managed by monitoring patients and not giving it to those with impaired immune systems, according to the companies.

“This is an immunosuppressant drug and it suppresses the immune system,” said David Blaustein, who owns shares of Elan and manages health care investments at Suttonbrook Investments in New York. “It means the drug is working. It doesn't mean Tysabri equals AIDS.”

CONTINUED

skiracer

03-01-2006, 11:55 AM

ski, eekads man! Haste thou lost thou mind! lolol

Seriously though, charts don't lie; only people do! And the chart was whispering what happened today for days......the TA has been pretty spot on for it recently....my entry the other day was pretty close to perfect dude; 1% risk and scooped 16%. Today's channel long with SHS was good for an intraday run (not that I saw the r/r value), and then the 12.88 resistance area was pretty good TA that had me +3% afterhours at one stage and open with green hope on it....

Throw TA out the window!!!! I think not! hehe

Sorry but I'm not buying into that Spike. But everyone's entitled to their own opinion and when I'm wrong I'm the first one to admit it. I've said it a number of times that what is driving this stock right now are the news breaks.
I'm not saying the TA side doesn't have any merit right now. It always does. I just think the news is the main contributing factor presently. If you took a look at the 10 min. chart over the last 3/4 days the Parabolic SAR has been tracking bullish under the candles. But that drop yesterday was triggered by a newsbreak and nothing else. There's no way you could convince me of anything else. I thought it was a bargain yesterday at the low of the day around $12.20 to $12.50 and right now it's trading over $13.00 on 10 million shares. That's almost more than average daily volume before 12 pm.

spikefader

03-01-2006, 02:44 PM

what's driving this stock is news....that drop yesterday was triggered by a newsbreak and nothing else.It's another interesting subject we've stumbled into ski, thanks. Prompted some thoughts that I'll share.

Triggered is a good word. And yes, it makes logical sense that bad news SHOULD trigger people to sell...but logic isn't something you can count on from the market. It has insane and illogical moments.....like the times bad news gets bought or great news gets sold hard. Yep, your assumption that the bad news is the driver of this move or good news is the driver of upward moves would convince naive market participants and observers. But I don't see myself ever being convinced that a person is able to conclude with absolute certainty and correctness that a piece of news is the sole reponsible factor in stock price movement. I guess that's where my problem is with your argument ski. I agree news has a part to play, and one cannot discount it as a driver. But let's not discount the basic wonderful speculative fundamental principles that drive price too; support, resistance, and volume. Where do they fit in with recent ELN bearishness? Where do they fit in when trying to figure out what is driving a stock?

Ski is saying the news is the main driver of failure of support and dropping price. Perhaps it was. Perhaps it wasn't. I wouldn't presume to know that.......and I don't think anyone can presume that....especially when we see good news get sold and bad news get bought.....

Was the news being reflected in the chart before it hit the Street? Now that's a curious question. We know how humans work....I'm sure some people got wind of bad news before the public....perhaps the chart was merely reflecting those 'in-the-know' traders who were selling early......

What I have said with confidence for a while now is that TA revealed the bias in a clear fashion, and the potential for support to fail was high. The channel short day resisted and sold, the symetrical triangle pattern targeted lower, the volume selling after pop was characteristic of a weak stock, the descending triangle provided the great r/r entry, the rising intraday wedge I charted, and it's breakdown, another price action that pointed lower......the bias has been clearly short for ELN lately. I think it's a mistake to ignore that stuff.

My humble and friendly observation ski is that you are drawing a conclusion you aren't really in a position to conclude. I would never deny you the right to offer your opinion, and it's great that you do cuz it gets me thinking about truth in markets.....but false assumptions I will point out, for my own benefit and for anyone else reading.... Forget being wrong or right....and let's find the truth. :)

And the truth as I see it is ELN could have easily rallied on bad news (how bad was it anyway? I dunno, FAers speak up please); and it would have rallied on mildly bad news and ignored it had ELN been a truly bullish stock at the moment....but it HASN'T been bullish, and bad news getting sold isn't surprising to me in the least, because yes, it helps to explain the move....
But frankly there are many other forces going on behind the scenes that we DON'T know about that can be driving it....like perhaps funds need to exit large positions before the halting on the 7th......perhaps there was a fat fingers order entry error that led to the stops being taken out......perhaps a bunch of things. One cannot assume to KNOW it was news alone. News is clearly 1 driver of stocks.......but you can't assume to know which way it's gonna go.

And thus it gets back to support is support until it isn't.

Best to ya ski, thnx fer prompting the thoughts.

skiracer

03-01-2006, 03:02 PM

If that newsbreak hadn't hit the wires yesterday I doubt that ELN would have fallen as hard as it did. I agree with your analysis from the daily and weekly charts that there was a genuine bearish short term bias. I firmly believe that news drives the markets and stocks to a pretty good degree but I'm in no way trying to put it above good old fashioned TA. From watching this stock over the last several months I have seen it rise and fall, but rise mostly, on positive news breaks. But I'm in no way saying that you're wrong in your views either. Dialogue an exchange of ideas is always good.

Websman

03-01-2006, 04:30 PM

After careful consideration I changed my mind and held onto my ELN shares...good decision. It's good to see the truth coming out about Teva's dirty tricks. :)

mrmarket

03-01-2006, 08:10 PM

Websman

03-01-2006, 08:13 PM

The Titans are considering throwing some sock drawer money into this for March 15 calls....

If the drug wasn't going to be approved, why would they waste their time hearing it?? If I'm right...free money!

Good point. I may have to check into some calls myself. I'll use the profits to gamble with in Atlantic City.

Runner

03-01-2006, 09:52 PM

Found this link about Tysabri
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=healthNews&storyID=2006-03-02T021455Z_01_ARM208056_RTRUKOC_0_US-TYSABRI-MS-SOME-RISK.xml&archived=False
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/health/3694943.html
http://www.forbes.com/lifestyle/health/feeds/hscout/2006/03/01/hscout531307.html

spikefader

03-02-2006, 04:26 PM

Short 12.84 and I'll give it 4% risk for now.Took my 4% hit on this short earlier today. Back to stalkin' the snake.

Websman

03-02-2006, 04:47 PM

The drop in price is presenting a great buying opportunity. I may pick some more shares up in the morning. :)

Biogen, Elan's Tysabri Is Worth Rare, Fatal Risk, Patients Say

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Barron, a 48-year-old former operator of a nuclear power plant, was so crippled by relapses in his multiple sclerosis that he couldn't stand up without help. The drug Tysabri allowed him to take walks with his wife again.

Then a year ago, Biogen Idec Inc. and partner Elan Corp. suspended sales of Tysabri after just three months on the market because of a link to a fatal brain infection. Barron will travel across the U.S. next week from his home in Arizona to join other patients demanding that federal regulators allow sales to resume and let patients choose whether to risk the side effects.

``I have friends in wheelchairs, using canes, committing suicide,'' Barron said in a Feb. 24 telephone interview. He plans to attend a Food and Drug Administration advisory panel meeting in Gaithersburg, Maryland. ``Most of us are pro-Tysabri because we failed all other therapies.''

The decision the FDA faces highlights the debate over patients' rights to a treatment with a severe side effect versus the agency's responsibility to protect them, said bioethicist Arthur Caplan. Study results suggesting Tysabri is twice as effective as other treatments made it the best hope for multiple sclerosis patients in 10 years and a potential $3 billion-a-year seller for Biogen and Elan.

The regulators ``pay more attention to safety than to efficacy, the desperation of patients or patients' right to bear the risk,'' said Caplan, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, in a Feb. 24 telephone interview. ``There is a certain amount of paternalism in public policy.''

The FDA's decision, due later this month, will hinge in part on recommendations from the panel of experts meeting March 7 and 8. The agency expanded the meeting to two days from one to allow enough time for public comment.

Testing Resumed

The agency on Feb. 15 cleared Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Biogen and Irish partner Elan to restart testing of Tysabri in patients for the first time since sales stopped. That raised hopes the agency may allow marketing to resume.

Deborah Knobelman, an analyst with Piper Jaffray & Co. in New York, said in a Feb. 28 note to clients that she expects the FDA to either approve Tysabri for limited use only or agree to approve it pending the completion of the resumed safety trials. She based her prediction on a survey of 140 neurologists that found 57 percent said Tysabri's efficacy is worth the risk of developing the brain infection only for patients who failed other MS therapies.

Caplan predicts the advisory panel will vote against Tysabri's return because ``there is no easy way to control the risk.''

The panel of experts will focus on whether Tysabri's benefits outweigh its risks and, if so, whether the drug's side effects can be managed. The committee also will consider what restrictions should be placed on Tysabri's use if sales resume.

2.5 Million Affected

Biogen and Elan introduced Tysabri in November 2004 to treat a neurological disorder that erodes muscle coordination and balance, sometimes leading to damaged vision and paralysis. Multiple sclerosis affects about 2.5 million people worldwide. Severe cases result in permanent disability, including partial or complete paralysis.

Tysabri, given as a once-a-month intravenous infusion, was the most expensive multiple-sclerosis therapy on the market, costing about $23,000 a year.

About 8,000 patients took the drug, including participants in clinical trials, by the time the companies voluntarily suspended sales on Feb. 28 last year. Biogen and Elan said the decision was based on one fatal case of the brain infection, called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, in people taking Tysabri and a suspected second case.

The companies' shares plummeted that day, wiping out about $17.8 billion of combined market value.

Share Price

Biogen's shares declined 30 cents to $46.95 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. Elan fell 39 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $10.80 in Dublin.

A study by University of Texas neurologists, posted in summary form on a conference Web site this week, suggested Tysabri can deplete the immune system as much as HIV. Tysabri works against multiple sclerosis by suppressing immune-system cells. The same effect may raise the risk of complications such as the PML infection.

A safety review by the companies last year ultimately concluded that three people had contracted PML and two died. No test exists for PML. The risk of contracting it is about 1 in 1,000, according to a study released yesterday by the New England Journal of Medicine.

Patients Group

``There is no such thing as a perfect drug,'' said Barron, who founded MSpatientsforchoice.org to argue that the decision on whether to take the risk should be left to patients and their doctors. ``This drug is the closest thing there is to a cure for MS.''

Barron says his group, which is paying travel expenses for about 10 MS patients, holds fundraisers and takes no money from Biogen, Elan or other pharmaceutical companies.

A survey of 800 MS patients released this week by the National Multiple Sclerosis Society and Harris Poll found most would consider using Tysabri under certain conditions, such as if their current treatment wasn't working or a reliable test existed for PML. The Society plans to release detailed results after the FDA advisory panel's meeting.

The companies say Tysabri should be cleared again because the treatment reduces multiple sclerosis relapses by more than two-thirds and delays disability. Current therapies, such as Biogen's Avonex, reduce relapses by one-third, studies showed.

Risks

The risks can be managed, partly by advising patients with impaired immune systems not to take the drug, said Biogen's Burt Adelman, the executive vice president in charge of medical research and regulatory affairs, in a Feb. 9 interview.

Tysabri also shouldn't be taken in combination with other MS therapies, Adelman said. In two of the reported PML cases, the patients were taking Tysabri in combination with Biogen's Avonex, a multiple sclerosis drug introduced in 1996.

PML occurs when an infection called the JC virus evades the body's immune defenses and penetrates the central nervous system. There it eats away the protective coating of nerve fibers, called myelin, causing irreversible brain damage.

Multiple sclerosis is caused when an abnormal immune-system response attacks the myelin. Tysabri, an antibody-based medicine, was designed to prevent that assault by suppressing immune cells. Researchers theorize that Tysabri may subdue defenses meant to keep the JC virus out of the brain.

It's a risk that Cheryl Bloom is willing to take. A 53-year- old landscape designer in Eagle, Idaho, who was diagnosed with MS in 2001, Bloom says she's paying her own expenses to attend the FDA advisory panel meeting next week.

``This drug worked for me, and I want to be able to have the choice to make an informed decision,'' Bloom said. ``There are risks in every drug.''

To contact the reporter on this story:Angela Zimm in Boston at azimm@bloomberg.net

noshadyldy

03-02-2006, 06:02 PM

Where do pets come from?

A newly discovered chapter in the Book of Genesis has provided the answer to "Where do pets come from?"

Adam and Eve said, "Lord, when we were in the garden, you walked with us every day. Now we do not see you any more. We are lonesome here, and it is difficult for us to remember how much you love us."

And God said, I will create a companion for you that will be with you and who will be a reflection of my love for you, so that you will love me even when you cannot see me. Regardless of how selfish or childish or unlovable you may be, this new companion will accept you as you are and will love you as I do, in spite of yourselves."

And God created a new animal to be a companion for Adam and Eve.

And it was a good animal.

And God was pleased.

And the new animal was pleased to be with Adam and Eve and he wagged his tail.

And Adam said, "Lord, I have already named all the animals in the Kingdom and I cannot think of a name for this new animal."

And God said, " I have created this new animal to be a reflection of my love for you, his name will be a reflection of my own name, and you will call him
DOG."

aoladp://MA12666412-0001/wheredop.gif
And Dog lived with Adam and Eve and was a companion to them and loved them.

And they were comforted.

And God was pleased.

And Dog was content and wagged his tail.

aoladp://MA12666412-0002/file000.gif
After a while, it came to pass that an angel came to the Lord and said, "Lord, Adam and Eve have become filled with pride. They strut and preen like peacocks and they believe they are worthy of adoration. Dog has indeed taught them that they are loved, but perhaps too well."

And God said, I will create for them a companion who will be with them and who will see them as they are. The companion will remind them of their limitations, so they will know that they are not always worthy of adoration."

And God created CAT to be a companion to Adam and Eve.

aoladp://MA12666412-0003/file001.gif

And Cat would not obey them. And when Adam and Eve gazed into Cat's eyes, they were reminded that they were not the supreme beings.
aoladp://MA12666412-0004/file002.gif
And Adam and Eve learned humility.

And they were greatly improved.

aoladp://MA12666412-0005/file003.gif
And God was pleased.

And Dog was happy.

aoladp://MA12666412-0006/file004.gif
And Cat didn't give a shit one way or the other.

aoladp://MA12666412-0007/file005.gif

skiracer

03-02-2006, 06:28 PM

I love cats. We lost our last one awhile back and my wife just isn't ready for another one yet. But she is softening up an I can't see it being to much longer. I can't wait. Nothing like a little kitten running around the house.

Websman

03-02-2006, 06:42 PM

noshadyldy

03-02-2006, 06:47 PM

I hope you do have another little one soon, SKI. I just love them too.
Although I must say, none of mine were ever aloof like the stereotypical cat is portrayed. Mine have all been love bugs from the very start, or soon turned into them. Even the ones that never knew a home before. I remember when I got Black Jack. He didn't quite "get" the human relationship thing. He was sweet and went along with it as best he could, but you could tell he wasn't quite comfortable with it. He actually looked puzzled by it. Afterall, didn't humans treat cats mean? They certainly never cared for him, never gave him a home or loved him. When I adopted him from the pound (estimated to be only a year old and listed as a stray) he was very very sick, had given up, and was just lying there in his cage on his side. Well, a couple of trips to the vet, and lots of lovin and he is just "the cats meow", big and beautiful! And as for the not knowing what to do with that human relationship thing, he's been one of my best cat students yet, and has mastered it magnificently. He's my love and he knows it. He's proud and happy now, and INCREDIBLY affectionate. Just like I like 'em.
Give your wife my warmest regarding the hurt she carries. It will always be there to some extent, you will always miss the ones that have passed over, but there are so many more that need to be loved. And I can smell a big heart clear across the country, SKI. You and your wife will make some lucky cat very very happy.

And for those of you who are getting annoyed at my babbling about cats, as my sainted Polish grammy would say, "tough shitzki!" http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

skiracer

03-02-2006, 06:57 PM

My dog had a cat cornered in the back yard late last night. At first I thought she might have had an alligator cornered, so I grabbed my rifle. It was dark and I couldn't really see much...I had the gun cocked and ready to fire, until he jumped the fence. That's when I realized it wasn't a gator...of course, I've seen some alligators that are 8 feet long in our lake, so if it would have been a gator it wouldn't have been good...jejeje

At first I was going to say it's so nice to have a little pussy running around the house but didn't want to sound depraved. Can you swim in that lake with the gators in it. There was a time a few years back where we had two labs and two cats. My wife an I lean towards the bigger long haired Maine Coon types that are both outdoor an indoor cats. We let them out whenever they want and they stay out as long as they want. Anyway we had one called Critter who was a tri-colored Lynx type that was pretty good sized. I got him from a dairy farm. He was born and living in an old manhole when I first saw him an I took him at a real young age from the litter and he was as wild as you can imagine. One day when he was a couple of years old the male lab who was a pretty good size himself gave Crit some crap and Crit jumped on his head and beat him up pretty good. I had to pry the damn cat off the dog's head and shoulders. One of Crit's favorite things was to catch a squirrel and rip the top of his head off an eat the brains and then leave the carcass by the door of our car. People say this is their way of showing affection and love. We had that cat for 14 or 15 years and never ever would come around and lay on either one of our laps. Would sleep at the foot of the bed at night but that was as close as he would get. I love their don't give a shit attitudes.
You're right about some cat or two are eventually going to luck out and come into a great and loving environment. My wife is a softie when it comes to the animals. They get treated better than me except on paydays when she's looking for her money.

Jim Smith

03-02-2006, 06:57 PM

I say dump ELN and buy MYGN.......it's insane that this thread has more posts than Jim's cycle trades that gave you TAP today....NTES last week.....I can't believe this thread isn't on the back page of the newspaper lining a bird cage.....How much hope and hype is being wasted here?...

spikefader

03-02-2006, 07:05 PM

Jim it's those kind of posts that make me wanna flick yer bald head and tell you to snap out of it.

DSteckler

03-02-2006, 07:07 PM

Jim it's those kind of posts that make me wanna flick yer bald head and tell you to snap out of it.

ROTFLMAO!!! Too funny, Spike!

Damn...I just snorted Sprite out my nose. LOL!

Jim Smith

03-02-2006, 07:08 PM

dmk112

03-02-2006, 07:14 PM

ROTFLMAO!!! Too funny, Spike!

Damn...I just snorted Sprite out my nose. LOL!

Lol, cofee just came out of mine...ahhaha

dmk112

03-02-2006, 07:15 PM

Webs, good luck with this one but I think today was your chance for an exit...it may get ugly before it gets better just a warning.

noshadyldy

03-02-2006, 07:16 PM

skiracer

03-02-2006, 08:38 PM

[One of Crit's favorite things was to catch a squirrel and rip the top of his head off an eat the brains and then ......

GOOD MERCIFUL ST FRANCIS, PROTECTOR OF ALL ANIMALS (including sweet little squirrels)!!!! I could've lived happily for the rest of my life without ever having read THAT!

That's what I loved about him. He had that killer instinct in his genes. It could be 20 below 0 an he would still go out to hunt. It's their nature you know with the big cats on down. Survival of the fittest.

skiracer

03-02-2006, 08:39 PM

look how busy this thread is......it didn't take 10 minutes for a reply....and, I don't have a bald head......that's an avatar of tony soprano.....I can't take seeing ELN anymore, it's garbage......I want stock discussion and lots of it.....

Jim,
What's your take on FLOW from this point? Still holding those March $22.50 calls on CSCO. Bought 50 more contracts today at .05. If it goes back above $21 it'll be cool. Are you still holding the stock?

Websman

03-02-2006, 09:36 PM

noshadyldy

03-03-2006, 12:17 PM

look how busy this thread is......it didn't take 10 minutes for a reply....and, I don't have a bald head......that's an avatar of tony soprano.....I can't take seeing ELN anymore, it's garbage......I want stock discussion and lots of it.....

No offense dear, but you do realize that this is the "ELN" board don't you????

kingofthehill

03-04-2006, 06:31 AM

Spike whats your take ....

spikefader

03-04-2006, 06:37 PM

Spike whats your take ....
Still looking for 10.00 out of it. But I wouldn't be holding long or short for the halt and announcement unless appropriately hedged. Good luck dudes!

http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/6681/elnmar41lu.th.gif (http://img216.imageshack.us/my.php?image=elnmar41lu.gif)

kingofthehill

03-04-2006, 08:21 PM

Sunday Irish Times March 5th 2006

Special report: Market lays bet on Tysabri verdict

LAS VEGAS may be the home of gambling in America, but action at the Holiday Inn in Gaithersburg, Maryland, this week is attracting the attention of some high-rollers indeed.
The hotel’s ballroom is getting a final clean this weekend ahead of the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) two-day public meeting on Elan’s and Biogen’s multiple sclerosis drug, Tysabri, which was withdrawn from the market 12 months ago on safety grounds. The panel’s recommendation should prove pivotal as to whether the FDA will allow the drug to be relaunched. Trading in shares in both companies will be suspended during the meeting.
Elan and Biogen are not the only ones having another roll of the dice. The spread-betting firm WorldSpreads says that it has seen a marked pick-up in punter interest in Elan ahead of the meeting.

“Just two weeks ago, we were only dealing with two or three trades in Elan a week. It’s now 15 or maybe even 20 a day,” said David Lynch, a senior dealer at the firm. “It’s mainly small or medium players that are trading it and there are definitely one or two among them that were badly hit a year ago.”

The 70%, one-day slump in Elan’s share price last February left ordinary shareholders licking their wounds, but it was those who had taken out spread bets or contracts for difference who felt most pain. These fellows, after all, had effectively borrowed up to 90% of the money that punted on the stock.

This time round punters are not being allowed to take on such risk. WorldSpreads is demanding 60% of the money up front from clients betting ahead of this week’s crucial meeting. “Some of our competitors are calling for 100% up front,” said Lynch.

While the market has become increasingly jittery, with Elan shares having swung between €10.16 and €12.14 over the past two weeks, Lars Ekman, the group’s head of research and development, has been the epitome of coolness.

“I believe the drug will be approved because of its unparalleled efficacy and overall safety profile,” said Ekman.

Elan and Biogen have agreed to pitch Tysabri as a treatment on its own, rather than for use alongside other immunosuppresant drugs. The three clinical patients who developed an extremely rare brain infection — progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML — after using Tysabri had also been on Avonex, another Biogen drug. Two of the patients died.

“No patient has yet (developed) PLM on monotherapy. That’ll be very clear on the label,” said Elman, whose team spent last summer conducting an extensive safety review on the treatment.

The two drug-makers received a boost in the middle of last month when the FDA gave them the go-ahead to resume clinical trials for Tysabri.

While advisory panel meetings are normally one-day events, it has been extended to two days to allow for the large number of patients who want to make testimonials on the need for Tysabri to be returned to the market. It is also understood, however, that the widower of one of the PML fatalities will argue for restricting access to the drug.

Analysts largely expect the FDA to give Tysabri the thumbs-up by the end of this month — albeit with restrictions on its use — but nobody is pegging the $3.5 billion (€2.9 billion) peak sales target that was bandied about when the drug was first launched.

Opinion on sales is more divided now. While some Dublin analysts are pencilling in peak sales in the region of $1.8 billion (€1.5 billion), some US brokerages, such as giant Lehman Brothers, believe that they would barely hit $500m.

Ekman is too smart to be drawn in on the peak sales debate. “We have not given a number. We have said which patients should benefit — about 100,000 in Europe and the US that have been on and left other therapies. There is nothing left for them.”

Does the group have a plan-B should Tysabri be rejected by the FDA? “If you take Tysabri out of Elan’s fourth-quarter results last year, it was still Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) positive.”

Tysabri, in fact, was a spin-off of Elan’s Alzheimer’s programme. Elan and partner Wyeth hope that one of their treatments for the degenerative disease — AAB-001 — will move into phase three clinical trials later this year. They expect their second drug — ACC-001 — to progress to phase two, and clinical trials to start on a third later this year.

Goodbody Stockbrokers recently forecast that the first two drugs could account for half of what it predicts will be a $10 billion drug market within the next 10 years. It is currently worth $3 billion.

Ekman is even more bullish. “A $10 billion market? That's conservative. I think the companies who are out first with a disease-modifying drug (for Alzheimer’s) will have an outstanding opportunity. We are very well positioned to become that first company.”

More hype, more hope? Conservative investors might be inclined to have next week’s high-stakes event out of the way before laying their chips on the table to have a punt on the Alzheimer's programme.

sisterwin2

03-05-2006, 01:24 AM

Still looking for 10.00 out of it. But I wouldn't be holding long or short for the halt and announcement unless appropriately hedged. Good luck dudes!

http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/6681/elnmar41lu.th.gif (http://img216.imageshack.us/my.php?image=elnmar41lu.gif)

Love you guys for teaching me about stops!!

kingofthehill

03-05-2006, 08:11 PM

An open letter to the membership of the National Multiple Sclerosis Society from Joyce Nelson, President & CEO

March 5, 2006—People with multiple sclerosis must have more choices for safe and effective treatments. The National MS Society is relentless in our pursuit of this goal.

It is our strongest hope that the FDA, after considering the safety issues associated with Tysabri®, will determine that such issues are manageable and that Tysabri can return to the market.

To that end, the National Multiple Sclerosis Society has worked on multiple fronts to assist the FDA with its work:

We advocated for the speediest possible review of Tysabri. As a result, the FDA accelerated the process to the fastest extent the law would permit.

In order to assure that the FDA received feedback from every individual who wished to be heard on this issue, we dedicated a month-long front-page link from our website, which attracts over 14.5 million visits a year, to the FDA comment page. We also provided information on submitting testimony and participating in the hearings in person. As a result of the outpouring from all comments received, the FDA extended its hearing proceedings from one day to two, and expanded its usual one to two hour public comment period to six.

In order to make sure that the hopes and concerns of people with MS were being heard in the FDA process, in December 2005, the National MS Society commissioned an online survey of people with MS to better understand their views concerning Tysabri and its possible return to market. The Society shared the comprehensive results of that survey with the FDA, who will include these results in their deliberations.

In order to assure that the best possible reviewers serve on the FDA panel, the National Multiple Sclerosis Society met with FDA officials and submitted a recommended list of reviewers who, in our opinion, bring to the table a comprehensive and balanced understanding of the issues associated with the return of Tysabri to the market. We do not know if any of these candidates will ultimately sit on the review panel, but the FDA accepted these recommendations for consideration.

Dr. John Richert, Vice President of Research and Clinical Programs, will present testimony at the hearings March 7-8 and will attend the full deliberations, along with other Society officials. Dr. Richert's statement will be made available on our website after his testimony on March 7.
Since Tysabri's initial introduction to the market and its subsequent recall, the Society has provided the most current and comprehensive information available to its membership on this important issue.

During this time, a number of Society members have become actively engaged in advocating for specific outcomes. We encourage and support each of our members in their right to take an individual stand on this issue, and we support the rights of members to form ad hoc groups to support their opinion.

We have maintained respectful communications with these members. For example, as a result of the work of MS Patients for Choice, Society members had the opportunity to register for the webcast of the hearing at a fraction of the full cost.

The Society has a responsibility to give voice to all people affected by MS—those hoping for more effective treatment and those concerned with having safe treatment choices. Thus, despite the urgings of individuals, industry representatives and ad hoc groups representing all points of view on this matter, the National Multiple Sclerosis Society has not, and will not, dictate to the FDA what its answer should be.

Having provided the best possible information and feedback to the FDA, we support the process that has been designed to review Tysabri. If, after this safety review is complete, the FDA recommends Tysabri's return to the market, we will applaud the addition of this treatment to our arsenal. If the FDA does not approve Tysabri's return to the market, or if it does so with significant restrictions, we will work tirelessly to find ways to satisfy the safety concerns so that more effective treatments can be readily available for the benefit of people with MS.

dmk112

03-05-2006, 10:51 PM

spikefader

03-05-2006, 11:05 PM

Spike, just wondering when and if (i'm sure you did) close out your position on ELN?Yep, I did. The first short I took +16% http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=42919&postcount=1084 and the second short looked good as it went +3% AH, but then opened higher and I took my -4% exit http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=43342&postcount=1120
Now I'm lurkin'. I may short for a daytrade tomorrow if it sets up right but if it doesn't I may consider bidding low after it after the halt is over and see if I can't buy support well. I dunno where for sure yet, but contemplating 10.25 for a nibble so I don't get too hurt if it acts wrong at the open. I'll try to post anything I'm seeing. Who knows....it may just gap up after the halt and run like a little monkey....but I'd be a very uncomfortable long if I weren't hedged well....the chart, she's a whisperin' lower to me....

spikefader

03-05-2006, 11:09 PM

Love you guys for teaching me about stops!!:) Glad to hear it sister! One obviously saved you from some pain. Good fer you and thnx fer sharin'. One can always reenter! :D

Websman

03-06-2006, 07:02 AM

I'll hedge myself by selling 2/3 of my ELN off today. I already sold 1/2 off on when it doubled. je,je,je

skiracer

03-06-2006, 07:31 AM

I'll hedge myself by selling 2/3 of my ELN off today. I already sold 1/2 off on when it doubled. je,je,je

Webs,
Here's a variable. After two days they come out and say, " our evidence is inconclusive and we need more time", which would be in line with everything else they do when it comes time to make a decision on something important. Then they reschedule the announcement for sometime in August. I say it's 50/50 they make they specifically make the announcement one way or another.

noshadyldy

03-06-2006, 10:19 AM

Now I'm lurkin'. I may short for a daytrade tomorrow if it sets up right but if it doesn't I may consider bidding low after it after the halt is over and see if I can't buy support well. I dunno where for sure yet, but contemplating 10.25 for a nibble so I don't get too hurt if it acts wrong at the open. I'll try to post anything I'm seeing. Who knows....it may just gap up after the halt and run like a little monkey....but I'd be a very uncomfortable long if I weren't hedged well....the chart, she's a whisperin' lower to me....[/QUOTE]

I was thinking the same to place low bid in and just see. I may also buy a small position before todays close just in case the monkey does run.This stock is acting so very strange. I still believe this is going to be 'A REEEELY BIG SHEW... REELY BIG!" (just dated myselft there) So I may just buy low and forget about it for a longish' hold investment.
(spike, If you gonna wear that cat suit, I'll take you in on any cold night. Even let you nap on my bed along with BlackJack and Casper.)http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif (oliver and Gabby prefer to sleep downstairs) Robert (my husband) sleeps outside. hehehe

spikefader

03-06-2006, 10:35 AM

Shorted it at these levels folks. r/r is 17
http://spikefader.wordpress.com/2006/03/06/eln/

Websman

03-06-2006, 12:34 PM

Sold all of my ELN for a huge profit...jejejeje

spikefader

03-06-2006, 01:10 PM

Sold all of my ELN for a huge profit...jejejejeCongratulations Webs! Dude it was a Huge trade worthy of some accolades.

http://img317.imageshack.us/img317/7672/applause2ib.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/1041/thumbsup5up.gif

http://img376.imageshack.us/img376/5259/vulcanhuge1et.gif (http://imageshack.us)

jiesen

03-08-2006, 11:31 AM

of course, if PRX's Flonase battle is any indication, the stock will drop 3% from this news when it resumes trading...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060308/ms_drug.html?.v=2

FDA Panel Supports MS Drug's Market Return
Wednesday March 8, 11:24 am ET FDA Panel Unanimously Supports MS Drug Tysabri's Return to U.S. Market

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A Food and Drug Administration panel said Wednesday the agency should allow multiple-sclerosis drug Tysabri back on the market.

The drug's manufacturers, Biogen Idec Inc. and Elan Corp., pulled the drug in February 2005 after two patients developed a rare brain disorder, known as progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML, and one died. A third patient was later discovered to have PML and also died.

The 12-member panel voted unanimously to support the drug's return.

The FDA usually follows its panel's advice, but isn't required to do so. The agency is expected to make a final decision by the end of the month.

Lyehopper

03-08-2006, 12:22 PM

Congratulations Webs! Dude it was a Huge trade worthy of some accolades.

http://img317.imageshack.us/img317/7672/applause2ib.gif (http://imageshack.us/)
http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/1041/thumbsup5up.gif

http://img376.imageshack.us/img376/5259/vulcanhuge1et.gif (http://imageshack.us/)
Yo Spike.... We shall see if Webs "bucking the VTP" was such a HUUUUGE!!!! move or not.je....je....je

skiracer

03-08-2006, 12:30 PM

Yo Spike.... We shall see if Webs "bucking the VTP" was such a HUUUUGE!!!! move or not.je....je....je

Webs may have suffered from premature exitation on this one. After holding from so long to have exited right at the wire. But who knows.

spikefader

03-08-2006, 12:33 PM

hehe ya.....hey what is the VTP's reading on ELN right now? I note Webs indicated the VTP said it was in a bearish trend recently, then he went long ELN for a couple pennies for POTW, and now sold his full position for something like +100% profit (which no one else has congratulated him for I see :().......so can the VTP predict the bias of this surely volatile opener?

spikefader

03-08-2006, 12:36 PM

Webs may have suffered from premature exitation on this one. After holding from so long to have exited right at the wire. But who knows.
hehe well I know he sufferes from premature vanity jeje Actually after all the confidence in ELN he has expressed lately I was shocked when I saw he closed it. But who knows how the mind of a Vulcan works...one can only guess and wonder. :D

Lyehopper

03-08-2006, 12:49 PM

.......so can the VTP predict the bias of this surely volatile opener?
Sure.....................

spikefader

03-08-2006, 04:00 PM

Lye, you got a quote for ELN dude? I'm seeing a pop myself......15.80?!

spikefader

03-08-2006, 04:09 PM

Stalking a short myself......... hehe
http://img314.imageshack.us/img314/3625/elnmar85oe.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

skiracer

03-08-2006, 04:10 PM

I saw $15.70.

Websman

03-08-2006, 04:12 PM

The VTP saw this move up. I only sold because of the fact that I'm very busy right now and had to go to cash. I'm working on a real estate deal which is taking all my time.

spikefader

03-08-2006, 04:28 PM

FYI: Shorted 15.56 here. I'll give it a couple % risk to target a gap fill or sumfin.

Websman

03-08-2006, 04:33 PM

It's amazing, but the VTP showed ELN climbing to $15.91, before it pulled back. It actually climbed to $15.92. I was only a penny off. This system is getting better every day.

mystiky

03-08-2006, 05:49 PM

spikefader

03-08-2006, 05:50 PM

FYI: Shorted 15.56 here. I'll give it a couple % risk to target a gap fill or sumfin.And it takes my 2% and I retreat to stalkin. So who is long this puppy tonight?

New-born baby

03-08-2006, 06:17 PM

Calling all chartists....

Does anyone think that ELN might close above $17.50 by next Friday (March 17), which is options expiration?

Me thinks that it will be very hard to get above that $17 resistance. I am thinking of playing with some $17.50 puts.

Comments, thoughts?

Mystiky:
I would not be looking to buy any puts. As you approach $17.50 the price drops, and I do expect ELN to head up to that $17 resistance.

I would not want to write a $17.50 put, because if ELN drops to $15, you'll have to buy it at $17.50.

So my opinion is that ELN is not in a good place to write or buy a put.

My view is that ELN formed a breakaway gap today. It knocked its head up against that $16 resistance mark. It might shake its head for three or four days to work that bump off, but then she starts to climb again. It may bust $17 or $17.50 by Mar 17. Wherever max pain is, that is where she'll settle.

If you own ELN, you could sell the MAR $17.50 calls, or write them naked if you wish. Another play would be to sell the MAR $15 put.

mystiky

03-08-2006, 06:45 PM

I like your idea of some "naked" $17.50 calls. I think that if I can get them at .45 or even .50 cents on a gapup tommorow, I might go for some there.
The premium there looks better than the puts.

However, if I see any of the analysts start giving ELN targets of like $20+, then I will stay away from the $17.50's and perhaps try to sell some $20 calls, which I really doubt ELN will touch in the next 6 trading days. Either way, I expect a gap-up tommorow.

And yes, I do realize what a naked call is, and how risky it can be!

Thanks for the input!

Mystiky:
I would not be looking to buy any puts. As you approach $17.50 the price drops, and I do expect ELN to head up to that $17 resistance.

I would not want to write a $17.50 put, because if ELN drops to $15, you'll have to buy it at $17.50.

So my opinion is that ELN is not in a good place to write or buy a put.

My view is that ELN formed a breakaway gap today. It knocked its head up against that $16 resistance mark. It might shake its head for three or four days to work that bump off, but then she starts to climb again. It may bust $17 or $17.50 by Mar 17. Wherever max pain is, that is where she'll settle.

If you own ELN, you could sell the MAR $17.50 calls, or write them naked if you wish. Another play would be to sell the MAR $15 put.

skiracer

03-08-2006, 06:56 PM

Mystiky:
I would not be looking to buy any puts. As you approach $17.50 the price drops, and I do expect ELN to head up to that $17 resistance.

I would not want to write a $17.50 put, because if ELN drops to $15, you'll have to buy it at $17.50.

So my opinion is that ELN is not in a good place to write or buy a put.

My view is that ELN formed a breakaway gap today. It knocked its head up against that $16 resistance mark. It might shake its head for three or four days to work that bump off, but then she starts to climb again. It may bust $17 or $17.50 by Mar 17. Wherever max pain is, that is where she'll settle.

If you own ELN, you could sell the MAR $17.50 calls, or write them naked if you wish. Another play would be to sell the MAR $15 put.

Strictly conjecture guys. No one knows what this stock will bring to the table tomorrow but one thing I can assure you of is that alot of it is momo money which will be heading for the exits into any strength it shows from the basic retail guys plowing their money into it. Patience and playing the waiting game is the only move right now. 20 million shares in a very short period of time this afternoon the minute they opened it back up. After this afternoon it's gambling for the next few days. Better to wait to see which way the wind is going to blow. Buying the puts now while they are down and cheap might be the most reasonable thing to do. But remember they are not the easiest instrument to unload when you're trying to get out of them an everyone else who had the same idea is trying to do the same thing.
I thought Spike's play made sense with a close to even stop the most you could lose would be about .31 points at 2% and get to take a shot at the momo guys getting out in the morning.

Tormentos

03-08-2006, 11:24 PM

I'm still long (entry at 14.10), and will be holding out for the next couple days. I made most of my money from the runup between $6 and $16. I now have a much smaller position so I am going to hold and see how things pan out.

spikefader

03-08-2006, 11:37 PM

ELN is in an awkward place right now for me. I'm neutral on it.

Channel short on the daily today, and that's quite a gap there, and not on impressive volume. Weekly money flow is red and price stalled near price resistance....I'm going to need to see more out of it before I put the bull suit back on myself.

But having said that, it is a boomer on weekly chart, and I don't see channel resistance until 20.00 now... so if it can get over that resistance on volume days then I'd have to reconsider.

King. Are you a happy chappy? Full report please! hehe

stocks54

03-08-2006, 11:46 PM

I am in for long run. I might buys some 08 LEAPS and forget about it.

New-born baby

03-09-2006, 07:40 AM

I like your idea of some "naked" $17.50 calls. I think that if I can get them at .45 or even .50 cents on a gapup tommorow, I might go for some there.
The premium there looks better than the puts.

However, if I see any of the analysts start giving ELN targets of like $20+, then I will stay away from the $17.50's and perhaps try to sell some $20 calls, which I really doubt ELN will touch in the next 6 trading days. Either way, I expect a gap-up tommorow.

And yes, I do realize what a naked call is, and how risky it can be!

Thanks for the input!

Mystiky,
Naked calls are not as risky if you do one or both of these things:
1. Stand by the computer screen and watch the action. If ELN moves up to the $17.50 range, you buy the stock and still have a small profit.
2. Set an alarm on your www.InteractiveBrokers.com account and when the stock reaches your buy point, it automatically buys the stock to cover it for you.

No, I am not ashamed of plugging IB! :D

New-born baby

03-09-2006, 07:44 AM

I am in for long run. I might buys some 08 LEAPS and forget about it.

Stocks,
JAN 08 $10 calls for ELN are selling for $6.50, barely a time premium at all on the stock. Incredibly cheap! But you have to be convinced that ELN is a winner, i.e. going to move up $1 :D hehehe Hey, if you are with www.interactivebrokers.com, buying a call cost 75 cents. Compare Scottrade at $7+1.25 per contract.

No, I am not ashamed of pumping IB! :D

mystiky

03-09-2006, 09:32 PM

Well, I was going to sell some March $20 naked calls today at the open for .15 -- but, it never hit my target. I wish that ELN would had gappend up to like 16.50 for the open.

So, nothing for me.

Mystiky,
Naked calls are not as risky if you do one or both of these things:
1. Stand by the computer screen and watch the action. If ELN moves up to the $17.50 range, you buy the stock and still have a small profit.
2. Set an alarm on your www.InteractiveBrokers.com account and when the stock reaches your buy point, it automatically buys the stock to cover it for you.

No, I am not ashamed of plugging IB! :D

DSteckler

03-09-2006, 09:56 PM

<< Well, I was going to sell some March $20 naked calls today at the open for .15 -- but, it never hit my target. I wish that ELN would had gappend up to like 16.50 for the open.

So, nothing for me. >>

It's questionable whether you would have gotten 15 cents even had ELN gapped to $16.50.

New-born baby

03-09-2006, 09:57 PM

Well, I was going to sell some March $20 naked calls today at the open for .15 -- but, it never hit my target. I wish that ELN would had gappend up to like 16.50 for the open.

So, nothing for me.

Mystiky,
Like I said in my earlier post, ELN will probably need three days to clear the knot off of its head. By that I mean that ELN bumped up against the $16 resistance, and usually that means a pullback for perhaps three days. What happened today was a shakeout of some weak holders, people just glad to get their money back out of this dog, er, stock. Did you see the volume today? HUGE. Even more than yesterday's abnormal spike. Maybe next Tuesday she starts upwards again in earnest--for awhile. That $17 resistance is also very significant, so I don't expect you to have any trouble with a $20 call in one week's time. Of course anything could happen, but with the current market conditions, I doubt it.

noshadyldy

03-12-2006, 09:36 AM

Yike! Had another one of those ELN dreams last night! It shot up $9 in a flash and there I was not being able to remember if I was last in or out. What a nightmare!

spikefader

03-12-2006, 03:16 PM

Yike! Had another one of those ELN dreams last night! It shot up $9 in a flash and there I was not being able to remember if I was last in or out. What a nightmare!lol
I seriously think you'd be better having dreams about BEL noshady. That's still good for at least a triple I think. Just need to snag a good entry and hope it acts right from the get go...just like I am always sayin' lol. It's those perfect entries ya gotta let run.

noshadyldy

03-12-2006, 05:34 PM

Wow, Spike! I took a look at BEL. Looks wonderful. Definitely give a holler when you think the waters right. Thanks!

lak

03-13-2006, 02:08 PM

Yeah BEL looks good indeed.......

spikefader

03-20-2006, 12:43 PM

Gee, this thread seems abnormally quiet. Wassup ELNers?! Not much joy in the chart, which I'll attach for your viewing dipleasure. I think support play 13% lower than current prices is wisdom at this stage. Stop for that play would be under the gap up day.

http://img393.imageshack.us/img393/3825/elnmar200th.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
If you gonna wear that cat suit, I'll take you in on any cold night. Even let you nap on my bed with BlackJack and Casper.http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
hehe I'm sure there's a fair amount of this (http://www.spikefader.web1000.com/catpurr.wav) goin' on at your house :D Aren't cats cool!

noshadyldy

03-20-2006, 01:11 PM

[hehe I'm sure there's a fair amount of this (http://www.spikefader.web1000.com/catpurr.wav) goin' on at your house :D Aren't cats cool![/QUOTE]

Great sound track there! And your right. All my "furry men" sound like that.http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

kingofthehill

03-20-2006, 06:29 PM

16:32 ELN Elan closes sale of rights to Prialt in Europe to Eisai (14.82 -0.19)

Co announces that it has completed the sale of the rights to Prialt in Europe to Eisai Co. Under the terms of the sale, Elan received approximately $50 mln at the closing and will receive a further $10 mln on the earlier of two years from closing or the launch of Prialt in key European markets, and may receive an additional $40 mln contingent on Prialt achieving revenue related milestones in Europe. Elan retains the product rights in the United States

stocks54

03-22-2006, 03:15 AM

From Reuters.com

"FDA to extend review on Tysabri - companies
Wed Mar 22, 2006 2:40 AM ET
LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has told drug firms Elan (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) and Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) it will extend its regulatory review of their Tysabri treatment for multiple sclerosis by up to 90 days, the companies said in a statement.

The decision comes after a panel of independent experts earlier this month unanimously urged the return of the drug, abruptly pulled from the market last year after it was linked to a life-threatening side effect. "

Man.. This is going to hurt. 2 months ago I had healthy profit (on paper) in ELN based on all my options. That's all wiped off.

Greed is going to hurt me again. Why didn't I buy PUTS...

New-born baby

03-22-2006, 09:46 AM

ELN taking a fall today. Sorry about that. Jim Smith is right: go find a hot shot stock somewhere else. I know: sounds like heresy, doesn't it? But ELN is going to continue to struggle until the issue is fully resolved.

stocks54

03-23-2006, 03:12 PM

Thanks NBB. Now all I am left with are LEAPS and some stocks. I hope FDA surpise us by approving the drug before 90 days.

stocks54

03-24-2006, 05:22 PM

From Reuters.com

WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) - A review of Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Elan's (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) bid to return multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri to the market "continues to be a high priority," the Food and Drug Administration said on Friday.

The FDA had delayed a decision for 90 days, the companies said on Wednesday.

The agency said on Friday it had extended the review because Biogen submitted a new plan to manage serious side effects from the drug.

"This application continues to be a high priority. The agency is working intensively to complete review of this new information and will attempt to do so before the end of the 90-day extension period," an FDA statement said.

Tysabri was pulled abruptly last year after three patients developed a life-threatening brain infection and two of them died. Earlier this month, a panel of FDA advisers voted unanimously to recommend the drug return to the market.

kingofthehill

04-06-2006, 09:03 PM

New Data on TYSABRI @American Academy of Neurology meeting

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Press Release Source: Biogen Idec and Elan Corporation, plc

New Data on TYSABRI(R) Demonstrate Significant Effects on Health-Related Quality of Life Measures in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis
Thursday April 6, 7:45 pm ET
Data presented at American Academy of Neurology Annual Meeting also Show Impact on Measures of Visual Function and Disability Progression

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 6, 2006--Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB - News) and Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN - News) announced today that in Phase III multiple sclerosis (MS) studies TYSABRI® (natalizumab) showed significant effects on pre-specified health-related quality of life (QoL) measures, in addition to those previously reported on disability progression, relapse rate and MRI. Data presented this week at the annual meeting of the American Academy of Neurology in San Diego, CA also showed a significant impact on additional pre-specified measures of disability progression, including visual and cognitive function.

"MS is a debilitating disease that significantly reduces the quality of patients' lives by causing symptoms like fatigue, pain, and diminished emotional well-being. We have never before observed positive findings on our quality of life measures in a Phase III MS study. The TYSABRI study data show not only significant reductions in relapses and disability, but also suggest improved quality of life. This is very encouraging," said Richard Rudick, MD, Director of the Mellen Center for Multiple Sclerosis Treatment and Research at the Cleveland Clinic, who presented the QoL findings at the AAN meeting.

TYSABRI Shows Improvement in Quality of Life Assessments

In the two Phase III TYSABRI clinical trials, AFFIRM and SENTINEL, QoL was assessed using three different measures, the Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life Inventory (MSQLI), the Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36), which is a component of the MSQLI, and a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). The MSQLI is an MS-specific battery of 10 scales that measure disease impact on QoL including, fatigue, pain, sexual function, bowel and bladder function, visual impairment, mental health and need for social support. SF-36 is comprised of 36 questions designed to assess patients' physical and mental well-being. General well-being was also measured using the VAS.

In the AFFIRM monotherapy study, patients in the TYSABRI-treated group realized a significant improvement in physical measures of the SF-36 compared with a decline in the placebo-treated group (p=0.003). A significant improvement was also seen in the mental component of the SF-36 in patients treated with TYSABRI compared with a decline in the placebo-group (p=0.011). Significant benefits were also seen using the VAS (p=0.007). Improvements on quality of life measures were also observed in the SENTINEL study, in which TYSABRI was added to AVONEX® (Interferon beta-1a).

TYSABRI Impacts Measures of Visual Function

In another analysis of the AFFIRM and SENTINEL data, patients treated with TYSABRI had a reduction in the risk of visual decline as measured by contrast testing compared to control. Loss of visual function is one of the most common causes of disability and lower QoL in MS patients. Low contrast letter acuity was a pre-specified endpoint in both studies. Recent studies have demonstrated that low contrast letter acuity (perception of light gray letters of progressively smaller size on a white background) is a more sensitive measure of visual dysfunction in MS than traditional measures.

TYSABRI Impacts Measures of Disability Progression

The primary efficacy endpoint of AFFIRM and SENTINEL at two years was the rate of disability progression sustained for three months as measured by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Additional measures of disability included the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC), which consists of three tests that evaluate ambulation, upper extremity dexterity and cognitive function.

In AFFIRM, treatment with TYSABRI led to a 42% reduction in the risk of disability progression compared to placebo (p=0.0002). TYSABRI was also associated with significant delay in progressing to EDSS of 4.0 (ambulatory with moderate disability) and 6.0 (requiring a cane, crutch or brace). TYSABRI treatment also had a significant impact on all subscales of the MSFC, including the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT), a measure of cognitive function (p=0.005).

TYSABRI Phase III Safety

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare and potentially fatal, demyelinating disease of the central nervous system has been reported in patients receiving TYSABRI. PML occurred in two MS patients who had received TYSABRI with AVONEX and in one Crohn's disease patient who had recently received an immunosuppressant. In placebo-controlled trials of

TYSABRI in MS, the incidence and rate of other serious infections were balanced between TYSABRI-treated patients and controls. Serious infections reported in TYSABRI-treated patients included pneumonia, urinary tract infection and appendicitis. The overall incidence and rate of common infections were also balanced between treatment groups. Commonly reported infections included upper respiratory tract infections, influenza, urinary tract infections, and gastroenteritis. Herpes infections were slightly more common in patients treated with TYSABRI. The incidence and rate of other serious and common adverse events in clinical trials were similarly balanced between treatment groups. Serious events that occurred in TYSABRI-treated patients included hypersensitivity reactions, including systemic reactions, depression, and cholelithiasis. Common adverse events reported include infusion reactions, headache, fatigue, and arthralgia.

Biogen Idec and Elan had previously voluntarily suspended TYSABRI from the U.S. market and dosing in all ongoing clinical trials based on reports of PML. Biogen Idec and Elan completed a comprehensive safety evaluation of more than 3,000 TYSABRI patients in collaboration with leading experts in PML and MS. The results of the safety evaluation yielded no new confirmed cases of PML beyond the three previously reported.

On March 8, 2006, the Peripheral and Central Nervous System Drugs Advisory Committee of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) voted unanimously to recommend reintroduction of TYSABRI as a treatment for relapsing forms of MS. The companies anticipate action by the Agency regarding the reintroduction for TYSABRI in the U.S. on or before June 28, 2006. The companies' application for approval of TYSABRI as a treatment for MS is also under review with the European Medicines Agency.

On March 29, 2006, the companies announced they have enrolled and dosed the first patients in the TYSABRI monotherapy safety extension study program in MS. Patients who previously participated in the Phase III MS trials and subsequent safety evaluation are eligible to be screened for entry in this open label multi-center study. Sites throughout Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Israel are expected to enroll patients.

kingofthehill

04-25-2006, 01:27 PM

sooner or later we will get paid for this wonderful drug .........

Earnings Preview:Biogen Idec
Monday April 24, 2:34 pm ET
Biogen Idec First-Quarter Earnings Tied to Avonex, Rituxan Sales

NEW YORK (AP) -- Biogen Idec Inc. reports earnings for the fiscal first quarter on Wednesday. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.
OVERVIEW: In early March, a Food and Drug Administration advisory panel recommended that the agency let Biogen and partner Elan Corp. resume sales of multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, however the agency delayed making a final decision until June on the drug, which was pulled from the market because of a link to an often-fatal brain infection. At the end of March, Genentech and Biogen Idec Inc. applied to get cancer drug Rituxan approved as part of a first-line treatment regimen for a certain type of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

EXPECTATIONS: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect the company to earn 46 cents per share on revenue of $635.8 million.

ANALYST TAKE: Prudential analyst Ron Ellis, who rates Biogen "Overweight," raised his earnings estimate to 48 cents from 46 cents on revenue of about $427 million, driven by sales of multiple sclerosis drug Avonex and Rituxan. However, Baird analyst Christopher Raymond, who rates Biogen "Neutral," estimates earnings per share of 49 cents without substantial growth in Avonex sales.

WHATS AHEAD: The delay for the Tysabri re-release depends on the FDA's evaluation of the company's risk management plan to monitor the drug. Raymond believes that instances of the brain infection will resurface regardless and may cause physicians to use the drug as a second-line treatment.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: Shares of Biogen rose 3 percent over the quarter to close at $47.10 on the Nasdaq March 31. The stock has traded between $33.18 and $50.72 over the past 52 weeks.

noshadyldy

05-12-2006, 02:06 PM

HELLO! Get a load of the volume on ELN!!! money money money money money
and it's MINE!!!AAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHHAHAH!

sisterwin2

05-12-2006, 03:29 PM

whats the story...... just because Canadian stocks are doing better then us stocks today?

noshadyldy

05-12-2006, 03:40 PM

Hello Dena,
No I don't think its got anything to do with that. The volume is 400% above it's 22 day average and some huge blocks going through. I just think we're getting closer to announcement date and maybe someone who knows someone said something. But hey, don't quote me. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Gains are slipping now but hey, not to worry. They'll "make more."

kingofthehill

05-12-2006, 08:32 PM

I see this stock at $20.00 by late summer

noshadyldy

05-13-2006, 10:59 AM

I see this stock at $20.00 by late summer

Why so conservative, King? The announcement is due in June and I would expect a bit more than a $4 or so pop from that. If I really thought $20 was target, I'd take my money and go buy more gold.

spikefader

05-13-2006, 11:45 AM

HELLO! Get a load of the volume on ELN!!! money money money money money
and it's MINE!!!AAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHHAHAH!lol Congrats on the pop noshady and all ELN lovers. While it is at resistance at this level there is a channel turn up and some room to the upper channel to 17.00. May it boom through that resistance for yall.

noshadyldy

05-13-2006, 12:00 PM

spikefader

05-13-2006, 12:40 PM

Spikey, ol buddy, ol pal!!! How are ya baby??? It's been a while.
(been more subdued lately myself as some hard times came my way personally, but things are starting to turn upwards now.)
Cyber hugs to you my friend.I'm real sorry to hear that noshady :( Prayin' fer ya that it's all fixed up! I'z bin good thank ya. Blessed in fact. Certainly more than I deserve. Have a great weekend!

noshadyldy

05-13-2006, 12:54 PM

Thanks Spike. As a matter of fact, when I finished posting and went upstairs, it occured to me that I should've asked you to say a prayer for me. Guess we're a bit kindred since you gave me exactly what I unspokenly needed and wanted.
Thanks again and I'm so very glad that you are doing well.

kingofthehill

05-15-2006, 03:59 PM

Charles Schwab

Price Alert
For Monday, May 15, 2006 as of 3:41PM EDT

Alert Triggered for Elan Corp PLC:

ELN Reached a New 52 Week High at $16.87

ELN rose 6.1% to a new 52 week high of $16.87. During the last
52 weeks, ELN's price has ranged from $6.08 on June 2, 2005 to
today's high of $16.87.

Additionally, over the last 12 months, ELN has increased 131.18%
while its peers in the Pharmaceuticals industry decreased 7.72%.

Please note you will receive only one "New 52 Week High" alert
per day for Elan Corp PLC.

sisterwin2

05-15-2006, 06:10 PM

Nice to see it hold up on such a ugly day.....

GOOOOOOOOOOO ELN

Websman

05-15-2006, 06:17 PM

Spikey, ol buddy, ol pal!!! How are ya baby??? It's been a while.
(been more subdued lately myself as some hard times came my way personally, but things are starting to turn upwards now.)
Cyber hugs to you my friend.

Life deals some tough blows, but you can't keep a Noshady Lady down. :)

sisterwin2

05-15-2006, 07:57 PM

Webbs..... are you still in ELN.

Did I ever tell you that you have the cutest little pointed ears?

Websman

05-15-2006, 08:30 PM

Webbs..... are you still in ELN.

Did I ever tell you that you have the cutest little pointed ears?

I sold ELN a while back, but I may stalk it for another entry...

So you like my ears huh??? Wow!

sisterwin2

05-16-2006, 06:48 AM

I sold ELN a while back, but I may stalk it for another entry...

So you like my ears huh??? Wow!

Be sure to post it if its a long.... oh hell, also if its a short buy.

I have held on to this stock since I have vested interest in the new MS drug.
I know its a emotional buy that is below your thinking, but would help me to gauge my interest. MY Doc runs the MS unit at UVBM and he is very interested in this drug coming back on the market for those of us who can not take the Beta class drugs.

truthfully, about the ears. Nawwwww, but the eye brows are a hit.

kingofthehill

05-16-2006, 03:04 PM

ELN is rocking huge fund bought 10 million shares last quarter

Websman

05-16-2006, 04:12 PM

ELN is rocking huge fund bought 10 million shares last quarter

Hmmm...I guess I should have held my shares.

noshadyldy

05-16-2006, 06:33 PM

Life deals some tough blows, but you can't keep a Noshady Lady down. :)

Thank you, Webs.
You say some of the nicest things.http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

so you really aren't holding ELN? Bummer. Hope you manage to sneak in before it's too late.

kingofthehill

05-16-2006, 06:43 PM

Wellington MGT manages over 400 BILLION $$$$ they bought 10 million shares of ELN in the last reporting peroid ...thats HUGE NEWS...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Studies bloom on Alzheimer's as Boomers age
- Erin Allday, Chronicle Staff Writer
Monday, May 15, 2006

The long race to develop a cure, or even a viable treatment, for Alzheimer's disease is quickly turning into a sprint as the Baby Boomer generation heads toward old age and the country faces what could be a health care disaster if the disease is allowed to run rampant.

Scientists nationwide are edging in on possible causes of Alzheimer's, a devastating neurological disease that attacks short-term memory first and destroys brain cells until sufferers can no longer recognize loved ones or take care of themselves, and eventually die from complications such as pneumonia.

But even as an avalanche of research and exciting new areas for investigation developed in the past five years, there have been clinical failures and frustrating setbacks. No one yet knows what, exactly, causes Alzheimer's, and there are only four drugs on the market now to treat it -- none of them very effectively.

Still, there are positive signs. At least two major pharmaceutical companies are in the final stages of clinical studies for drugs that focus on the protein that most scientists think is the likely cause for the disease. A South San Francisco lab is also redesigning a vaccine that failed in a clinical trial four years ago, but some scientists still believe it could stop Alzheimer's.

"The major question still remains: What causes Alzheimer's disease? To know that will take us a very long time, but you can treat a disease without knowing exactly what causes it," said Tony Wyss-Coray, an associate professor of neurology at Stanford University School of Medicine.

"With the population aging, Alzheimer's is going to ruin the health care system. But I think there is really hope that something will work in the next two to five years. It will not completely prevent the disease or reverse it, but it will have an effect on the disease process."

Scientists will meet at Stanford today for an annual Alzheimer's Association conference to discuss the latest research and treatments, from imaging techniques to detect the disease at its earliest stages to upcoming clinical trials and techniques for caring for sick individuals.

About 4.5 million Americans have Alzheimer's now, although that number could be far larger if it included the millions of people who are in the early stages of the disease and have yet not had it diagnosed. And the oldest Baby Boomers, now in their 60s, are heading into the decades when Alzheimer's is most likely to strike.

About 5 percent of people ages 65 to 74 have Alzheimer's disease, and by age 85, people have a nearly 50-50 chance of suffering Alzheimer's, the National Institute on Aging says. The number of new cases is growing every year, and by 2050, the affliction could strike 14 million Americans.

Alzheimer's is a particularly upsetting disease, and nearly every American is familiar with its debilitating effects, either first-hand from taking care of a parent or grandparent, or from watching the disease take down public figures such as President Ronald Reagan and actor Charlton Heston.

"It scares the bejesus out of people," said William Fisher, chief executive of the Alzheimer's Association for Northern California. "If what's between your ears is compromised, that's a fundamental difference. It's not like losing your backhand or your knees giving out. It's a hard thing for people to talk about. They don't even want to think about it."

Alzheimer's was discovered a hundred years ago by a German doctor who studied a rare type of Alzheimer's that hits people in their 30s and 40s. The more common disease that affects the elderly has been around probably for hundreds of years, or even thousands of years, but it is mostly a result of decades of health-care progress that allows people to live much longer.

It was only about 35 years ago that serious research into Alzheimer's started, and it wasn't until the 1990s that scientists started developing real theories on where to focus treatments. The first drug to treat Alzheimer's was approved by the FDA in 1993.

"I think with Alzheimer's, we're now at where we were with cancer in the '70s," said Charles DeCarli, an associate professor of neurology at UC Davis Medical School and director of the university's Alzheimer's Disease Center. "We have a sense of the problem, we know where we'd like to be in 20 years, but we don't know how we're going to get there. We're not having a big impact."

That has to change, and fast, DeCarli said. "Alzheimer's kills you. Your five- or seven-year mortality is about 50 percent," he said. "If you're 60 years old, that's a big deal. We're not playing around here."

Indeed, Alzheimer's research has accelerated in the past five years, and new studies are released just about every week. The National Institutes of Health report 95 studies worldwide related to Alzheimer's are either actively recruiting participants or are expected to begin recruiting soon.

"What we're seeing now is an explosion in understanding Alzheimer's that is underpinned by the last 30 years or so of very, very fundamental, basic science," said Marcelle Morrison-Bogorad, director of the National Institute on Aging's Neuroscience and Neuropsychology of Aging Program. "Now we have second- and third-generation research."

Alzheimer's research received about $650 million this year in federal funding -- more than double the funding 10 years ago, although this year was the first in a decade that funding didn't increase.

Nearly every major pharmaceutical company in the world has some sort of drug therapy in the works. The disease is potentially big business for the pharmaceutical industry, and everyone is racing to come up with the first major advance in treatment, said Howard Fillit, executive director of the Institute for the Study of Aging in New York who also serves on an advisory board for Neurochem, a Montreal pharmaceutical company that is in the final testing stages of a drug to treat Alzheimer's.

"Five years ago," he said, major pharmaceutical companies "did-n't think enough was known about Alzheimer's, and it was too risky to develop drugs. They were wary of getting into it."

But a lot of the major companies "see that clearly there's a market out there now," he said. "They are getting involved, and the venture capitalists are looking for good opportunities.

"Alzheimer's is the most important disease of the 21st century. Clearly, we need to be making a lot more investment in drug discovery research both in academia and in industry."

Recent research has been aided by the "brain decade," when scientists in the 1990s made major progress into understanding the brain and the billions of chemical processes that take place in our minds.

Scientists also created a new kind of transgenic mouse model that allowed them to genetically modify lab mice so they would carry a type of Alzheimer's that is pathologically similar to the disease humans have, opening up new areas of research.

No one yet knows what exactly causes Alzheimer's disease, but scientists agree that one of the most likely causes is a protein called amyloid that, when broken into smaller pieces, builds up in the brain and leaves messy piles of plaque that pollute the space between neurons, or brain cells. For years, the prevailing theory was that this plaque disrupted communication between neurons and ultimately killed brain cells.

But recent research suggests that it isn't the plaque that interrupts communication between neurons, but individual amyloid protein molecules that float between cells. The plaque buildup, argue some scientists, may be a mostly harmless side effect of Alzheimer's, not the cause. The individual protein pieces "hit nerve cells like cruise missiles," attacking the energy centers of the neurons, said Lennart Mucke, director of UCSF's Gladstone Institute of Neurological Disease.

Whether it's the plaque or the protein missiles that cause Alzheimer's, there is little doubt among scientists that amyloid is an important research target -- how to destroy it, stop it from interfering with neuron functions, or prevent it from building up in the brain in the first place.

Other research areas also look promising. Scientists are studying another protein, apolipoprotein E4, which carries with it a higher risk of developing Alzheimer's. "ApoE" proteins maintain and repair neurons.

There are three common types of inherited apoE -- E2, E3, and E4 -- and E4 is the only one that seems to lead to Alzheimer's. Scientists at Gladstone are looking at a treatment that would alter the E4 so it behaves more like the E3 protein and doesn't attack brain cells.

A third focus for research is inflammation in the brain, which can cause blood vessels to constrict and limit the amount of blood carried to the brain. Depending on the type of inflammation, it can either start chain reaction that leads to amyloid-beta buildup, or in some cases prevent that buildup.

The ultimate therapy for Alzheimer's probably will involve a cocktail of drugs -- much the way doctors treat cancer and AIDS -- that attack the disease from several different points, scientists said.

"The diversified portfolio idea is very sensible," Mucke said. "We often end up treating patients with different drugs. I think we will end up treating Alzheimer's in a similar fashion."

Both Neurochem in Montreal and Myriad, a pharmaceutical company based in Salt Lake City, are in final, stage-three trials toward developing drugs that would be the first to attack the protein at the center of Alzheimer's disease, instead of just treating the symptoms.

A therapy developed by the South San Francisco lab of Elan Pharmaceuticals that would vaccinate people against amyloid buildup has been redesigned and is once again in clinical trials. In 2003, Elan was forced to halt its study of an Alzheimer's vaccine after the tests caused serious brain inflammation in 15 patients.

After mouse therapy looked so promising, Gladstone's Mucke said, Alzheimer's research has been plagued by disappointing study results and human trials that fail. It's a notoriously difficult field of study, he said, because so little of the brain is understood, and because the population most afflicted often suffers from other age-related diseases that confuse research data.

"In general it's not easy to come up with effective treatments for any disease," Mucke said. "The problem with Alzheimer's is it affects an age group when other diseases exist and muddle up the picture.

"The last 20 years have resulted in a much greater understanding of the causes of the disease. It's just not been easy to develop drugs that are effective and safe. There are very promising therapeutic entry points. We have to push to the finish line."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alzheimer's disease: destroyer of thoughts and memories

More than 50,000 Americans die of Alzheimer's disease annually. This neurological disease takes away a person's ability to remember, speak, move and control his or her life. Research into the mechanism of the disease is continuing, and one key theory is it involves the interruption of the neuronal networks by sticky clusters of protein fragments called amyloid beta peptides. Researchers are expecting the total number of U.S. cases to rise from 4.5 million today to more than 14 million by 2050.

Amyloid beta: Brain cells secrete a protein called amyloid. When this protein is broken into pieces, a section known as amyloid beta is created. Amyloid beta is thought to be at the center of what causes Alzheimer's disease.

Amyloid plaque: Lumps of amyloid beta that build up around neurons in the brain were once thought to be the cause of Alzheimer's. Many scientists now think the plaque could be a mostly harmless side effect.

Oligomers and protofibrils: When amyloid beta pieces don't form into plaque, they can create much smaller clusters. Many scientists now think these oligomers and protofibrils attack neurons, disrupting communication between cells and eventually killing them.

Neurons: Humans have billions of these nerve cells in the brain.

Synapses: Tiny gaps between neurons. Brain cells communicate by sending chemical messengers, called neurotransmitters, through synapses to cause responses in the brain.

Sources: UCLA School of Medicine, The J. David Gladstone Institutes

John Blanchard / The Chronicle

Page A - 1
URL: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/05/15/ALZHEIMERS.TMP

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
©2006 San Francisco Chronicle

Websman

05-16-2006, 06:48 PM

Thank you, Webs.
You say some of the nicest things.http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

so you really aren't holding ELN? Bummer. Hope you manage to sneak in before it's too late.

I guess I'm a nice guy...sometimes.

I'll try to sneak back in if I catch catch a down day, but ELN is looking red hot!

Websman

05-16-2006, 06:51 PM

ELN price target = $27.50. I hope it makes it for Y'all, (yea, I have a southern accent) and I hope I find an entry before it does.

sisterwin2

05-19-2006, 07:31 PM

ELN price target = $27.50. I hope it makes it for Y'all, (yea, I have a southern accent) and I hope I find an entry before it does.

this is great to hear.. Seems to have held up well this pass week. Also JSDA. The week didnt end so badly.

spikefader

05-19-2006, 08:33 PM

ELN is poppin'! I'll be buyin' 17.62 (http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/05/eln_19.html) on Monday me finks! This is impulse 3 up dudes and dudettes! Ya got volume support under it, ya got green money flow, ya got my green light. Now yes, ya got a major trendline right at today's high but that trendline is toast imho.......and new highs for this on Monday and it should impulse nicely.

My short-term target is 35.00 and long-term target of 70.00.

Congrats to all the believers! Cinderella Story :D

http://img45.imageshack.us/img45/7615/mediumchampagnepop0cs.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

05-22-2006, 03:09 PM

Here is the play folks:
http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/05/eln_22.html

DSteckler

05-22-2006, 03:34 PM

Here is the play folks:
http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/05/eln_22.html

Looks like a better short than long, to me.

spikefader

05-22-2006, 03:53 PM

Looks like a better short than long, to me.Do you short into impulse 3s very often?

DSteckler

05-22-2006, 03:58 PM

Do you short into impulse 3s very often?

I short into long upper shadow bars where downside volume has been higher than upside volume and the indicators are overbought.

spikefader

05-22-2006, 04:09 PM

I short into long upper shadow bars where downside volume has been higher than upside volume and the indicators are overbought.OK, I'll mark you down as short from 17.58. How big a stop would you like jejeje

Runner

05-22-2006, 04:10 PM

I don't see a short in ELN yet. Dave where is your trigger? Dave are you a day trader?

DSteckler

05-22-2006, 07:08 PM

I'm a swing trader, Runner. A short trade is based on the bar or formation action. BTW, the bow tie can also be used for shorts by reversing the setup criteria to:

1. The MAs shift from proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA) to proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's high must be higher than yesterday's high.

3. Tomorrow, place a sell short order 1 - 2 ticks below today's low good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's low good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades above its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop above the highest bar in the setup.

Runner

05-22-2006, 07:26 PM

Dave, I don’t see the bow tie formation in ELN. I do see it in the Nasdaq composite index, but the moving average lines are still in tact on ELN… I’m I looking at this bow tie thing wrong? I’m not sure I’m following coopers pattern.

I also see what your looking at regarding the daily bar close today was weak, but I need more then just one day bar to set up as a short. Anyway Dave are you saying ELN is a short under today’s close by .10? Not sure if this is what your keying on. Where is your trigger line of entry for shorting ELN?

DSteckler

05-23-2006, 09:42 AM

sisterwin2

05-23-2006, 11:53 AM

ELN is not a bow tie short. I was speaking in generalities, saying that the bow tie can be used to identify short prospects as well as long prospects.

I think you guys will jinx ELN talking shorting it......pls refrain from that word with ELN

Joking of course.

DSteckler

05-24-2006, 11:51 AM

Daily stochastic rolling over to the downside from an overbought position. Will look to cover at or near the 20-day EMA, currently at 16.19.

spikefader

05-24-2006, 06:38 PM

I know ELN lovers are going to like the large Fuzzy count.
http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/05/eln-major-count.html
Stalker long at this time after the "ain't actin' right call (http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/05/eln-aint-actin-right.html)"

billyjoe

05-25-2006, 12:40 PM

Kingofthehill, Webs,Spike, and others,
Nearly 2 1/2 years of posting has me convinced or maybe brainwashed. I'm in at 17.70.

billyjoe

spikefader

05-25-2006, 01:59 PM

Kingofthehill, Webs,Spike, and others,
Nearly 2 1/2 years of posting has me convinced or maybe brainwashed. I'm in at 17.70.

billyjoeWell you picked a good day for it bro. Good luck! May the entry be perfect!

Sets up right here 17.96 with very good r/r with nice intraday pattern. 2% risk to target 35.00 or 70.00. Hard to beat that. I'm long (http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/05/eln_25.html). Go ELN! hehe

NY4Ever

05-25-2006, 02:30 PM

Most I see for ELN is 19 - 20. It is more important to know when to sell than when to buy. Take profits now.

DSteckler

05-25-2006, 02:32 PM

I agree with Garbo on this one. The bias is still to the downside. And a target of 35 anytime soon is unrealistic, IMO, barring news.

spikefader

05-25-2006, 04:07 PM

I note there is was a very nice minor channel long yesterday to go along with the double bottom intraday yesterday...a perfect one at that. There's the crucial line in the sand for me. Nice ascending intraday triangle late today.....moving into that major trendline resistance. Long entries today lookin' sweet; green hope with stop to even if/when it hits +4%.

Oh....and I'll ask again Dave....how big a stop do you want on that short of yours? Was doin' ok at +6% too ...

DSteckler

05-25-2006, 04:31 PM

One tick above the high of entry day.

sisterwin2

05-25-2006, 05:01 PM

I have been in since 10.9 then added again at 13.88, not long after that it began to fail me. I held on out of pure "wishing" for the MS drug to come back on the market.

I have to admit I think 70's are a bit of a dream for me... I do think 30's are very possible. I am going to stay for the long run.

GO GO ELN

DSteckler

05-25-2006, 05:54 PM

One tick above the high of entry day.

That's a buy stop limit, BTW.

spikefader

05-25-2006, 08:52 PM

I have been in since 10.9 then added again at 13.88, Almost +50% on your average; Congrats! :D

kingofthehill

05-26-2006, 06:48 AM

this is just the start of the run back to $30...my target is $40.00 by April 2007

sisterwin2

05-26-2006, 07:38 AM

Almost +50% on your average; Congrats! :D

Yes.... darn close to 50%. I really owe it all to you with showing me how to read ema/sma and patience. I think your the one who shared the swing trade site with me.

If you have a site the teaches options that would be helpful also. I keep getting confused on put/calls. I dont get the sell to close/ sell to open concept either. I fear actually pressing that button to say trade.

Did you get in on BDK yet? I must of miss the 84 price. I should have put a trigger trade in.

Tatnic

05-28-2006, 07:26 AM

Most I see for ELN is 19 - 20. It is more important to know when to sell than when to buy. Take profits now.

For those of you that haven't figured it out already, mygn is the only stock to own, not ELN;)

ELN is not a short here....it may not go to $40 this year but I'd be willing to bet it sees $20 before it sees $15.

spikefader

05-28-2006, 02:40 PM

Yes.... darn close to 50%. I really owe it all to you with showing me how to read ema/sma and patience. I think your the one who shared the swing trade site with me.

If you have a site the teaches options that would be helpful also. I keep getting confused on put/calls. I dont get the sell to close/ sell to open concept either. I fear actually pressing that button to say trade.

Did you get in on BDK yet? I must of miss the 84 price. I should have put a trigger trade in.I think you must be thinking of someone else re the help with reading averages, sisterwin2. ema/sma is not something I focus on normally... and not sure which site you're talkin' about either. But anyway, glad to hear this forum is doing positive things for your trading! NB has posted some cool options sites recently, perhaps advance search and put his username in would find them?? Or go over to the options thread and flick back through the pages.. Yep, fear is a hard one to shake. If you make the dollar amount ridiculously low that should remove a lot of the fear factor. Then it's not so much about winning or losing large sums of money, or even being wrong or right about the direction....and it's more about executing according to the good plan you've made. Then after sufficient practice and when you're doing well with your method, up the ante. When it's not workin', down the ante. Find the balance between what's at risk and the emotions that risk forces out of you. Eventually with experience and when good trade habits have been established by your discipline you will find trading much easier. Best to ya!

Runner

05-30-2006, 01:34 PM

Spike, great TA call on ELN.....

spikefader

05-30-2006, 04:00 PM

Spike, great TA call on ELN.....
Thanks Runner.

Runner

05-30-2006, 09:40 PM

I’m beginning to see a channel develop on ELN and thus far both channels are pointing to higher ground. Today’s high marks the 3rd time upper channel has been tested. A break above upper channel would be a nice bullish move for ELN and a return move to lower channel may offer entry signal. Sector action also has been improving and this stock thus far has a bullish look to it. I also think 25.38 area may offer some stiff resistance.

kingofthehill

06-01-2006, 03:06 PM

Spike......................nice Call

sisterwin2

06-05-2006, 03:20 PM

there goes my 50%

spikefader

06-05-2006, 03:32 PM

Thanks King; it was good while it lasted heh
Good 2% risk setup presents here at 16.64 as I type. Channel long on daily, intraday 1min double bottom. Stop under lod.

Runner

06-05-2006, 03:49 PM

Thanks King; it was good while it lasted heh
Good 2% risk setup presents here at 16.64 as I type. Channel long on daily, intraday 1min double bottom. Stop under lod.
I do see a mini uptrend trying to forum on the 1 min. chart. Needs to take out 16.96

Runner

06-05-2006, 03:52 PM

bands down to Zero line. Needs a pop up here. Trendline being tested as I write.

DSteckler

06-05-2006, 03:56 PM

Sounds like it was an extreme case of sell the news.

Runner

06-05-2006, 04:00 PM

1 min trend is failing as price is now below it. Expect test of LOD. I also notice prior uptrend line is now acting as R

spikefader

06-05-2006, 04:07 PM

Sounds like it was an extreme case of sell the news.Yep, I read earlier that the drug was approved, and it popped, and then the 'restricted sales' news hit and it fizzled. Buy the rumor, sell the news still works well I see.

Runner

06-05-2006, 04:11 PM

Oh I think it is only right to express caution when trading a 1min chart. It always helps to look at higher time frames when trading a 1 min chart. I don’t personally trade 1 min. charts anymore. 60 min chart 15 min is now as low as I go, nothing wrong with getting in on a nice entry off the 1 min, but my experience with them has not been very well. Why such a large time frame you might ask. Well I trade in the direction of the larger degree time frame. If 60 min indicators are moving up most times I’m in good shape with the shorter time frame.

billyjoe

06-23-2006, 02:07 PM

My loss is now <5% should I bail ? Is ELN's goose cooked ? Has it shot it's wad ?
Is the party over ? Has the fat lady sung ? Is it the end of the road? Is it "good night Irene" ? That's all she wrote ?
--------billyjoe

Websman

06-23-2006, 02:10 PM

spikefader

06-23-2006, 03:27 PM

Well that last 2% risk setup failed, and since it's improved technically in my book.

I actually just posted a buy entry yesterday (http://technicaltrading.phpnet.us/technicalanalysis/?p=49)billyjoe. It's green by 1% and some green hope there.

Today I posted (http://technicaltrading.phpnet.us/technicalanalysis/?p=54) that I see the pivot as a good buy location with a 2% stop risk attached.

The long-term fuzzy is still lookin' good for ELN and I'm bullish on it while it's over 14.82.

Good luck all.

billyjoe

06-26-2006, 03:39 PM

Spike,
I'm not comfortable with ELN . Seriously thinking about selling and buying EGY.
-----billyjoe

spikefader

06-26-2006, 04:07 PM

Spike,
I'm not comfortable with ELN . Seriously thinking about selling and buying EGY.
-----billyjoeGo for it. ELN looks really bullish to me. Fresh buy signal today on the hourly (http://technicaltrading.phpnet.us/technicalanalysis/?p=83)and very bulllish band action lately. TA points up. Good luck with EGY if you take it. Caution with that tweezer top today though. I think ELN has the better chart right now.

DSteckler

06-26-2006, 06:51 PM

EGY is stronger technically than ELN, because the former has been rising on average or above average volume, while the latter has been rising on volume only about 50% of ADV.

billyjoe

06-27-2006, 04:58 PM

Good news. I got out of ELN @ 17.07 for a < 5% loss. Bad news. I didn't buy EGY and it went up. Good news . Kids have EGY in their accounts.
--------billyjoe

spikefader

06-27-2006, 05:09 PM

That's a respectable loss billyjoe. Good discipline. ELN dropped for the push and then presented another perfect long entry today (http://technicaltrading.phpnet.us/technicalanalysis/?p=92). I'm very bullish on it but will be happier when it gets back over 16.90, the major long-term trend line.

spikefader

06-29-2006, 11:22 PM

Dave and billyjoe, you were right on the money dudes. Good calls.

To the topic of ELN, that perfect entry gave the b/e stop and presented another inv.SHS yesterday, and a triple bottom today. I'm long and green and a hopin' machine! Click the chart to be taken to the full post details.
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/2614/elnjune29ii7at7qf.gif (http://technicaltrading.phpnet.us/technicalanalysis/index.php?s=eln)

How many excited ELN bulls out there?? Stand and be counted. I know noshady is one of 'em, and King of course...I've forgotten something I'm sure.

jiesen

06-30-2006, 03:36 AM

spikefader

06-30-2006, 03:45 AM

I'm bullish on ELN, but not in it anymore, and not planning on it right now. I'm too heavily into that sector as it is... I think the ones I've got right now are all better prospects than ELN. PRX is so far undervalued it's just silly. This one's going to take off for sure- Thursday's Norvasc approval just may be the spark to do it, too.That's a pretty ugly monthly SHS and bearish neckline break for PRX this month dude. But it's in an area of potential reversal at least; it's right at monthly bollinger band support, so it's a good place to be looking to support it long. But it can't afford a monthly close below 17.80 or it's starting to look toasty.

billyjoe

06-30-2006, 07:18 AM

spikefader

06-30-2006, 08:38 AM

Spike,
Like jiesen it wasn't that ELN was a bad stock, it's just that there's so many others with better prospects. My son is up 92% on EGY in his Roth and that makes me feel very good. Now his MSFT is moving up and I know it may be very conservative but he's got 45 years to wait.
--------billyjoeNice. EGY actually just made the cut in a fresh parabolic port this morning too. Aggressive buying up here, but hey, it's parabolic and in an impulse 3 up, and the market is a bull! :D

stocks54

07-02-2006, 03:35 AM

New-born baby

07-02-2006, 07:21 AM

Hello Spike,

My portfolio has 90 % ELAN. I know it's kind of foolish and very risky BUT I think this is the only way to increase capital. If everything works out good than we will see quite a gain in ELAN PSS in next two years.

I have my fingers crossed.

Note: Thanks to kingofthehills for bringing this stock to our attention.

Best Regards,
Stocks54
Stocks,
Crossed fingers generally doesn't make a good indicator of future stock performance. Couldn't you diversify into a few other charts that look explosive for at least a little margin of safety? ELN is a wild stock. Kinda like a bull in a ring. If you can ride it for 8 seconds, you might win the big bucks. On the other hand, it could trample you, too. I like to watch bull riding, but I never sit on a bull because everyone of those guys, sooner or later, get bucked off and stepped on.

I truly hope things work out for you. Best wishes.

stocks54

07-02-2006, 08:38 PM

NBB,

Thanks. I am planning to sell some options and hedge my position with some insurance so that if something goes wrong I am covered.

I totally agree that it's very risky play and if (IF) something goes wrong like it did on Black Monday I will be done big time. I think it's my greed to make money more quickly. I am going to slowly start taking out some of it and diversify a bit. I definately think PRX might be a good pick for long term (Reason: Mr. Market's pick at very discounted price).

Best Regards,
Stocks

jiesen

08-27-2006, 07:40 PM

http://www.forbes.com/2006/08/25/wyeth-elan-0825markets12.html?partner=yahootix

Alzheimer's Treatments Show Potential: Analyst
Scott Reeves (javascript:fdcBioWindow('scottreeves')), 08.25.06, 10:28 AM ET

New disease modifying agents for Alzheimer's disease are showing promise, a Cowen and Company analyst believes.
Encouraging results have been seen from MAb therapeutic vaccines from Wyeth (nyse: WYE (http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=WYE) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=WYE) - people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=WYE)) and Elan (nyse: ELN (http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=ELN) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=ELN) - people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=ELN)), Neurochem's Alzhemed and Myriad Genetics' Flurizan, according to Cowen analyst Ian Sanderson.
More than 40 compounds are in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease and about half are disease modifying agents.
"We believe Alzheimer's disease treatments will be an important investment theme for the next several years as successful agents could gain broad combination use and drive a $10 billion to $15 billion market by 2015," Sanderson said.

kingofthehill

09-08-2006, 08:16 AM

Just wanted to let you know im alive and well and im buying more Elan .........dont "forget" this stock will have a nice run in 2-4 months time...or sooner...lol

Websman

09-08-2006, 04:19 PM

Just wanted to let you know im alive and well and im buying more Elan .........dont "forget" this stock will have a nice run in 2-4 months time...or sooner...lol

It's time for me to take a second look for a possible re-entry. I doubled my money once on ELN. Maybe I can do it again. :)

Websman

09-22-2006, 11:23 PM

I bought ELN back at around $15.23 per share. I may add to my position on a puulback. I believe it's just a matter of time before we see $30.

Websman

09-24-2006, 09:01 PM

ELN is looking much better. Watch this doggie run this week...jejeje <TICK>

stocks54

09-24-2006, 11:52 PM

It's about time. I have been patiently waiting for it to go to $30. I can’t wait any longer……

Websman

09-25-2006, 05:41 PM

It's about time. I have been patiently waiting for it to go to $30. I can’t wait any longer……

It's a long wait, but the ride will be a wild one...

Websman

09-26-2006, 08:26 PM

Yet another chance to pick up some cheap shares of ELN. I may buy some more if the price drops some more...

It seems that this analyst is "worried" about Tysabri...LOL What a joke

Analyst Worries About Tysabri
By Althea Chang (http://apps.thestreet.com/cms/email/tscEmailStory.do?storyId=10311217&authorId=1100525&storyUrl=/newsanalysis/biotech/10311217.html)
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
9/26/2006 11:40 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/biotech/10311217.html (http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/biotech/10311217.html)

Tysabri, the multiple sclerosis treatment from Elan (ELN) and Biogen Idec (BIIB) , appears to be getting hit by the strict safety rules that accompanied the drug's reapproval by regulators, according to one analyst.

Deborah Knobelman of the research firm Piper Jaffray slashed her estimate for worldwide Tysabri sales to $21 million for this year, down from her previous $123 million expectation. According to her feedback from doctors, physicians' adoption rates of the drug were slower than she had anticipated in the U.S. because of safety concerns, reimbursement procedures and patient-monitoring requirements.

Tysabri was recleared by the Food and Drug Administration earlier this year after being taken off the market for fear it could be linked to a potentially fatal brain illness. Before the drug could again go on sale, its makers had to agree to meet a number of criteria dealing with safety monitoring for side effects.

"The current, and in our view, overvalued, [Elan] stock price is not reflective of our new 2006 Tysabri estimates," Knobelman wrote in a research report. "Even if Tysabri revenues reach $1 billion (our peak sales assumption), the stock's current valuation reflects almost double Tysabri's peak potential. We believe [Elan's] Q3 report will reflect our lowered estimates, which might close the stock price's valuation disconnect."

Knobelman maintained an underperform rating on Elan's shares, with a price target of $10. The stock was trading down 14 cents, or 0.9%, at $15.73 Tuesday. Biogen Idec's shares fell 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $44.64.

jiesen

09-27-2006, 12:15 AM

Webs, I'm meeting with a friend of mine who's a director of business development at ELN this Friday for dinner. Any particular question(s) you'd like me to bring up?

Websman

09-27-2006, 05:41 PM

Webs, I'm meeting with a friend of mine who's a director of business development at ELN this Friday for dinner. Any particular question(s) you'd like me to bring up?

Heck yea Dude! How about getting some good insider info and then PM it to me...jejeje

Seriously though, see what kind of info you can get him to give up. Explain to him that you and a few others hoping to profit from his company.

Maybe King could think of some specific questions. King? Oh King?

Websman

09-28-2006, 07:04 PM

First good news, then bad, then good.... This stock is schizophrenic!!! BWAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!

BRING IT ON BOYS!!!!!!!!!!!!

YEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Websman

09-30-2006, 02:34 PM

First good news, then bad, then good.... This stock is schizophrenic!!! BWAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!

BRING IT ON BOYS!!!!!!!!!!!!

YEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Maybe bipolar would be a more proper term for ELN...

jiesen

10-01-2006, 03:52 PM

Heck yea Dude! How about getting some good insider info and then PM it to me...jejeje

Seriously though, see what kind of info you can get him to give up. Explain to him that you and a few others hoping to profit from his company.

Maybe King could think of some specific questions. King? Oh King?

We didn't discuss any insider information, but I did find out about the small Canadian biotech working with ELN on their next Alzheimer's vaccine candidate. She recommended taking a look at Transition Therapeutics (TTH.TO) while it's still under $1. The clinical data for this drug looks good enough for ELN to commit $200M to its development, and if it works, the upside for both ELN, and especially TTH will be HUGE.

I took a quick look at the TTH, and so far like very much what I'm seeing. Not only do they have the Alzheimer's drug, but several other diabetes, MS, and HCV drugs in development. I'll look more into these guys, but please read their latest report yourselves, and let me know what you think of TTH:

http://www.transitiontherapeutics.com/ir/financial_reports/3q2006.pdf

TTH hompage:
http://www.transitiontherapeutics.com/company/index.php

Websman

10-01-2006, 04:39 PM

TTH.TO looks good but Ameritrade shows that it's not available for trading. :(

spikefader

10-16-2006, 08:57 PM

It's that time again folks!

ELN about to take off imho.

Charts can be viewed at http://www.technicaltrades.net/2006/10/16/eln-intraday-c/ and http://www.technicaltrades.net/2006/10/16/eln-bullish/

Good luck all!

http://www.technicaltrades.net/wp-content/ELN-triangle.gif

Websman

10-16-2006, 09:16 PM

spikefader

10-17-2006, 10:44 AM

Sounds great! I got in on Sept 14th at $15.23. My patience should pay off. :)
Just joined you at $15.60. Let's ride this gem up together! :D My risk is a little over 4%.
http://www.technicaltrades.net/wp-content/ELN%20-%20Candle%20All_15m%202006-10-17%20094116.GIF

All aboard!!
http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/2751/peconductorni4.jpg

Runner

10-17-2006, 11:10 AM

I like the set up into support. I might risk .83 cents on it. I'll also look for entry off a 60 min chart. Nice eye Spike.

billyjoe

10-17-2006, 11:28 AM

OK boys , I'll try her again. Have order in @15.51. Volume is very low today. If I get fooled again it's shame on me.

----------billyjoe

spikefader

10-17-2006, 11:46 AM

I like the set up into support. I might risk .83 cents on it. I'll also look for entry off a 60 min chart. Nice eye Spike.

Thnx, and good luck, Runner. I'm broader market very bearish intraday and see high potential for some fast and volatile correctives now. Looks like Dow has put in a big 5th with subwaves 5th now. Earnings disappointments tonight will likely fuel the drop.

I'd feel a whole lot better about this ELN long if it was supported by my market bias, but ya can't have everything :D

I will note that I count a long-term fuzzy C at 14.33...so failure of that support will be very bearish for ELN. Here's a fuzzy count from earlier in the year that shows the pink fuzzy C at 12.00ish, which is also important support naturally. I'm about to redo the count now to highlight that $14.33 zone.

http://img67.imageshack.us/img67/2306/elnmay24dailycount1ox.gif

riverbabe

10-17-2006, 11:59 AM

I also like the TA setup here. The short term catalyst for breakout should be the earnings report before the bell on 10/25 with a great earnings projection due to TYSABRI sales in Canada?

I'm joining you today for the ride up!

Runner

10-17-2006, 12:37 PM

Great job on your charting Spike. I took 1/2 position and I'll give it 1R.85. Oh WMT finally violated that tough 48.00 area but we shall see.

spikefader

10-17-2006, 12:46 PM

Great job on your charting Spike. I took 1/2 position and I'll give it 1R.85. Oh WMT finally violated that tough 48.00 area but we shall see.
Thanks.

WMT; yer HUUGE! hehe

You've got the neckline break I see :D

Nice trade that's actin' right! May she drop to that $42.00 to $40.00 support area in a jiffy!

http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/2030/wmtcandle2m3d1d20061017114304ws8.gif (http://imageshack.us)

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/6595/4481tj1.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Runner

10-17-2006, 12:57 PM

Spike, I was even thinking WMT might offer another entry on a rejected retest around 48.00.

dmk112

10-17-2006, 04:45 PM

Spike, I was even thinking WMT might offer another entry on a rejected retest around 48.00.

When do they report?

dmk112

10-17-2006, 04:51 PM

Just joined you at $15.60. Let's ride this gem up together! :D My risk is a little over 4%.
http://www.technicaltrades.net/wp-content/ELN%20-%20Candle%20All_15m%202006-10-17%20094116.GIF

All aboard!!
http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/2751/peconductorni4.jpg

Spike, what do you think of some options for this one? Trying to limit my risk incase this thing tanks as it has in the past. I'm thiking of November 15 calls, or January 17.5

spikefader

10-17-2006, 06:12 PM

Spike, I was even thinking WMT might offer another entry on a rejected retest around 48.00.Yep, you called it. lol

spikefader

10-17-2006, 06:16 PM

Spike, what do you think of some options for this one? Trying to limit my risk incase this thing tanks as it has in the past. I'm thiking of November 15 calls, or January 17.5Haven't looked at the premiums or charts but I'd think Jan 17.50s are the way to go. I can't imagine ELN flatlining from the triangle break that's coming......

Runner

10-17-2006, 08:03 PM

Yep, you called it. lol

Spike, It was suppose to go the other way....hehe!!

Websman

10-17-2006, 08:08 PM

OK boys , I'll try her again. Have order in @15.51. Volume is very low today. If I get fooled again it's shame on me.

----------billyjoe

Nice call Billyjoe! 15.51 was the low of the day. I hope you got a fill...

billyjoe

10-17-2006, 09:04 PM

Nice call Billyjoe! 15.51 was the low of the day. I hope you got a fill...

Webs,
I didn't get it. The ask never dropped below 15.52 as far as I can tell. You never know. I've already sold at a level a stock supposedly never reached so maybe I can buy at a low never reached. Tomorrow..tomorrow... just a day awaaaay.

-----------billyjoe

skiracer

10-17-2006, 09:56 PM

Real nice call off the low of the day today guys. I might be joining you tomorrow. Looks ready to go off from here and still a good entry right here at todays closing price.

http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/5715/elnio7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Websman

10-17-2006, 09:59 PM

Real nice call off the low of the day today guys. I might be joining you tomorrow. Looks ready to go off from here and still a good entry right here at todays closing price.

Looking forward to you joining us Ski!

skiracer

10-17-2006, 10:01 PM

Looking forward to you joining us Ski!

Yea it looks good for something to happen now Webs. Maybe tomorrow.

billyjoe

10-18-2006, 11:52 AM

Webs,
My limit expired I didn't put "good 'till cancelled". Could have gotten it for 15.41 today. Now back to the drawing board. Maybe today.

-------------billyjoe

riverbabe

10-18-2006, 12:43 PM

I got in today at 15.50 in one account and 15.47 in another. Holding the 50 dma. Looking good. :)

billyjoe

10-18-2006, 01:55 PM

Still not in , but big spender that I am, raised limit to 15.52. Spike and Ski, the chart looks good but it doesn't matter if the report on 10/25 is bad. If it is bad we might not be able to get out in time even with limits*. That's my worry.

------------billyjoe

* "ECN (Electronic Comm. Network) is a computerized trading network to display and execute limit orders. Buyers and sellers may experience significant delays before orders are filled and some orders may not be executed at all."

billyjoe

10-18-2006, 05:12 PM

Ski,
Got the ELN @15.52 . Hope we all make some $$$.

------------billyjoe

skiracer

10-18-2006, 05:44 PM

Ski,
Got the ELN @15.52 . Hope we all make some $$$.

------------billyjoe

Billyjoe,
I was watching it all day. It is now on my watchlist after today. I like the play but am just lurking right now to see which way the wind is going to blow. I love the daily chart and there is a nice symetrical triangle forming there over the past month and a half which is coming to a head along with the bolinger bands tightening up. Something is going to give here and I feel it is to the long side.

spikefader

10-20-2006, 12:56 AM

Spike and Ski, the chart looks good but it doesn't matter if the report on 10/25 is bad. If it is bad we might not be able to get out in time even with limits*. That's my worry.
I hear ya. If ELN hasn't done something impressive by earnings I'm going flat.

Tatnic

10-20-2006, 09:49 AM

going by my gut here...I get the impression that the stock will see single digits again. HOrrific numbers and mgmt.

Tatnic

10-20-2006, 10:33 AM

going by my gut here...I get the impression that the stock will see single digits again. HOrrific numbers and mgmt.

sorry about that...I thought I was in the pick of the day thread.

billyjoe

10-23-2006, 05:08 PM

I've got a bad feeling about ELN down almost 3% today on high volume. Seems somebody might have advance warning.

------------billyjoe

Websman

10-23-2006, 08:45 PM

I've got a bad feeling about ELN down almost 3% today on high volume. Seems somebody might have advance warning.

------------billyjoe

Nothing to worry about Billyjoe. It was merely panic selling because of a press release. This particular story was old news and an exact version of it had already been released a couple months ago. I suspect it was planned by some of the big boys, so they could cover their short positions or possibly get some cheap shares.

I'm not a bit worried. The sell off was not that bad.

Here's the bogus article...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20061023:MTFH40689_2006-10-23_18-47-56_N23386807&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Patients, doctors still leery of Biogen's MS drug
Mon Oct 23, 2006 2:48 PM ET

By Toni Clarke
BOSTON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Doctors are proving more leery than many had expected about prescribing the multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, which was relaunched in July after being suspended because of safety concerns.
Over the past month or so, analysts have drawn down their 2006 sales forecasts as it becomes clear that doctors wary of the risk of the rare but potentially fatal brain disease PML are reserving the drug as a treatment of last resort.
The drug, which is made by Biogen Idec Inc. <BIIB.O> and Irish partner Elan Corp. Plc <ELN.I> <ELN.N>, had been expected by some analysts to generate sales this year of more than $100 million, but those figures have dropped dramatically.
Ian Hunter, an analyst at Goodbody stockbrokers in Dublin, said on Monday that he has cut his full-year Tysabri forecast to $25.7 million from $78 million, in part because of continuing safety concerns and the complexity of reimbursement systems in Europe.
A survey of 63 neurologists conducted by Reuters Primary Research indicates that in 2006 Tysabri will be used in less than 1 percent of multiple sclerosis patients -- translating into revenue of under $30 million.
Since July, only 47 of more than 8,500 patients treated by the physicians surveyed by Reuters had used Tysabri, even though more than 700 patients had discussed using it, according to the report.
And more than 75 percent of the patients who had used Tysabri prior to its 2005 suspension have decided not to use it since its reintroduction, the survey showed.
In taking the rare decision to allow a withdrawn drug back onto the market, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration was partially influenced by calls from patients who said they were willing to take the risk of contracting progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML, because of the potential benefits of the drug.
"It turns out in real life that a lot of patients and doctors are taking a wait-and-see attitude," said Ben Weintraub, author of the Reuters survey.
About 250,000 to 350,000 Americans have been diagnosed with MS, a degenerative disease of the nervous system that can lead to muscle weakness, blurred vision and, ultimately, disability. Many benefit only partially from current treatments, which include Biogen's drug Avonex.
Tysabri's ultimate sales potential will depend, to an acute degree, on whether there are any more cases of PML, analysts say. Most of the respondents to the Reuters survey said they would stop using Tysabri altogether if two new PML-related deaths were associated with Tysabri.
"Most people say its going to be a $1 billion drug eventually," said Steve Brozak, an analyst at WBB Securities. "But more time is needed. Time buys you information." (Additional reporting by Paul Hoskins in Dublin)

billyjoe

10-23-2006, 09:09 PM

Websman

10-23-2006, 09:14 PM

Webs,
Good point. I didn't find that article. Didn't look in the right place. How can we get the clout to plant articles when they can be used to our advantage? Let's see some more VTP press releases. Maybe they'll try to post some more rotten old news tomorrow. That might be a big tip off.

------------billyjoe

I've seen this pattern over and over with ELN and many other stocks. It gets to be very obvious. I don't know how they get away with it, but they do.

Runner

10-23-2006, 10:50 PM

Yesterday I tightened my stop on ELN from 1R to .50R. Not impressed hard stop in at 15.05. If not stopped tomorrow I may use a discretionary call on it and close the position out.

jiesen

10-24-2006, 04:15 AM

I've seen this pattern over and over with ELN and many other stocks. It gets to be very obvious. I don't know how they get away with it, but they do.

Actually, Webs, it's pretty simple. The pattern you see is caused not only by planted stories, but also leaks. While I'm sure there are stories planted, it's far easier to imagine one leaking to the trading floor without much of a conspiracy needed for coverup. So, using Occam's razor, we can assume that's all it is most of the time.

This phenomenon is a good reason for novices to stay out of the "news play" trades. Unless you're one of those "in the know" and by definition participating in illegal activity, you are at a severe disadvantage to those who are. By sticking with longer-term horizons, you should be able to avoid this disadvantage.

Still, it always sucks to see criminals getting away with your money.

Websman

10-24-2006, 09:27 PM

Yo, you see whats I mean my Vulcans??? Y'all see the games them Wall Street boyz be tryin' to play with us? They think we be stupid, but we ain't no fools. Who they think we is?

AP
Biogen, Elan Drug Effective in Crohn's
Tuesday October 24, 9:12 am ET Biogen Idec and Elan Present Data Showing Effectiveness of Tysabri in Crohn's Disease

NEW YORK (AP) -- Biogen Idec and Elan Corp. said Tuesday data from a long term study of their multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri maintained remission rates in Crohn's disease patients treated over a two-year period.
The study involved 90 patients and showed 86 percent were still in remission after two years of continuous treatment. Also, a subpopulation of 22 patients who had previously taken infliximab therapy showed an 82 percent remission rate after two years.
Crohn's disease causes inflammation of the digestive tract and the welling causes pain and can result in frequent diarrhea. The results from Cambridge, Mass.-based Biogen and Ireland-based Elan come on the heels of a competitor's study, showing its rheumatoid arthritis drug was effective in maintaining remission rates in Crohn's patients.
On Monday, Abbott Park, Ill.-based Abbott Laboratories said Humira met its endpoints in a late stage clinical trial by showing a decrease in symptoms and factors associated with Crohn's. The study involved 325 patients who had previously used infliximab treatments.
Both companies are presenting the data at the American College of Gastroenterology's annual meeting in Las Vegas and the United European Gastroenterology Week in Berlin.
American depositary shares of Elan fell 23 cents to $15.43 in pre-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange, after closing Monday at $15.43.

stocks54

10-25-2006, 02:17 AM

All set for some exciting time with ELN. Let's see what they have to say about patient waiting in queue to get Tysabri...

spikefader

10-25-2006, 10:48 AM

ELN crossed my line in the sand today. My 4% risk taken and the daily has descending triangle nature to it now. Needs to do something impressive for me to consider it long again. I do note that it's still above the last Fuzzy C at 14.33 though.

skiracer

10-25-2006, 10:59 AM

riverbabe

10-25-2006, 11:01 AM

Out of ELN with 3% loss. Risk level too high for me now for short term.

spikefader

10-25-2006, 11:25 AM

Yep ladies and gents, risk too great on the long side now.

I calculate on TA-basis that short intraday S1 15.29 with tight stop is a wonderful r/r trade. Details at http://www.technicaltrades.net/2006/10/25/eln-6/

Weekly chart below, more at my site:
http://www.technicaltrades.net/wp-content/ELN-Oct25-week.gif

Sorry bulls; it is what it is.

Best of luck all.

Websman

10-25-2006, 05:32 PM

The price action today was pure manipulation... ELN closed up .17 at 15.68.

I rode it out. Still in at 15.23...

spikefader

10-25-2006, 11:48 PM

The price action today was pure manipulation... ELN closed up .17 at 15.68.

I rode it out. Still in at 15.23...Ah the manipulation conspiracy! hehe I dunno whether it's manipulation or merely normal market mechanics. If I had your entry I'd still be in too Webs :D Sadly it's not to be.....the train was going backwards! lol Good luck with it Webs. I'm a bystander for now.

riverbabe

10-26-2006, 11:45 AM

The price action today was pure manipulation... ELN closed up .17 at 15.68.

I rode it out. Still in at 15.23...

Amazing reason and logic Vulcan! I sure couldn't have predicted it! Nice going and good luck!

Websman

10-26-2006, 05:07 PM

If I had your entry I'd still be in too Webs :D Sadly it's not to be......

Yes...my entry was good, wasn't it? jejeje :cramersmiley:

billyjoe

10-26-2006, 05:35 PM

Yes...my entry was good, wasn't it? jejeje :cramersmiley:

Webs,
It's funny how a person's entry point can change ones entire view of a stock.
-----------billyjoe

Websman

10-26-2006, 05:43 PM

Webs,
It's funny how a person's entry point can change ones entire view of a stock.
-----------billyjoe

LOL So true Billyjoe. I'm probably going to hold onto my shares for a while, unless my system starts to show a bearish indicator.

Runner

10-26-2006, 05:45 PM

LOL if anybody finds a broker that pays you for your entry let me know!!!

jiesen

12-04-2006, 12:11 PM

We didn't discuss any insider information, but I did find out about the small Canadian biotech working with ELN on their next Alzheimer's vaccine candidate. She recommended taking a look at Transition Therapeutics (TTH.TO) while it's still under $1. The clinical data for this drug looks good enough for ELN to commit $200M to its development, and if it works, the upside for both ELN, and especially TTH will be HUGE.

I took a quick look at the TTH, and so far like very much what I'm seeing. Not only do they have the Alzheimer's drug, but several other diabetes, MS, and HCV drugs in development. I'll look more into these guys, but please read their latest report yourselves, and let me know what you think of TTH:

http://www.transitiontherapeutics.com/ir/financial_reports/3q2006.pdf

TTH hompage:
http://www.transitiontherapeutics.com/company/index.php

TTH.TO is now a double from where I found it (at 0.9). Sure wish I had taken the time to figure out how to get some of that Canadian gem... Scottrade wouldn't let me buy it, and I don't have a Canadian account set up.:(

New-born baby

12-04-2006, 02:30 PM

TTH.TO is now a double from where I found it (at 0.9). Sure wish I had taken the time to figure out how to get some of that Canadian gem... Scottrade wouldn't let me buy it, and I don't have a Canadian account set up.:(

I'll tell you how: IB.

jiesen

12-04-2006, 05:25 PM

I'll tell you how: IB.

coulda shoulda woulda... Doh!:eek:

jiesen

12-04-2006, 05:26 PM

coulda shoulda woulda... Doh!:eek:

now I'm seriously considering seriously considering switching.

Websman

12-04-2006, 06:13 PM

now I'm seriously considering seriously considering switching.

I read that IB is going public. Might be worth checking out.

kingofthehill

06-15-2007, 01:20 PM

22.89 june 15th

stocks54

06-15-2007, 01:55 PM

Kingofthehill,

Do you think we will hit 30+ by the year end?

Stocks54

spikefader

06-15-2007, 02:52 PM

22.89 june 15th
Long live ELN! haaaaaarrrrrrrrrrr That last short setup was good for about 20%. But now she's headed for 30.00 resistance!

Looks like it's in a weekly 3 up. Scuttlebutt ELN thread (http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/viewtopic.php?p=2557#2557) for those interested.

Remember the inverted SHS that started the recent move?

http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/userpix/2_ELNFeb15day_1.gif

Some nice charts there now........and it's a +93 rating at Scuttlebutt! :)

http://img164.imageshack.us/img164/9520/74383412kl1.gif (http://imageshack.us)http://img164.imageshack.us/img164/6884/66817069iq5.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img164.imageshack.us/img164/9431/85036759dj1.gif (http://imageshack.us)http://img164.imageshack.us/img164/7228/85541391ta4.gif (http://imageshack.us)

sisterwin2

06-15-2007, 04:52 PM

:o It is about time this stock pay off a bit for me.... now if I would just cash out at the right time.

riverbabe

06-15-2007, 06:05 PM

Long live ELN! haaaaaarrrrrrrrrrr That last short setup was good for about 20%. But now she's headed for 30.00 resistance!

Looks like it's in a weekly 3 up. Scuttlebutt ELN thread (http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/viewtopic.php?p=2557#2557) for those interested.

Remember the inverted SHS that started the recent move?
Some nice charts there now........and it's a +93 rating at Scuttlebutt!

Hot darn! Lookin' real good! Hey, I still got a little cash sitting around earning 1.05%....!!! And the kracken's gettin' DXPE too.

Sister! Nice call. :) River

New-born baby

06-15-2007, 07:07 PM

Hot darn! Lookin' real good! Hey, I still got a little cash sitting around earning 1.05%....!!! And the kracken's gettin' DXPE too.

Sister! Nice call. :) River

River,

Just this polite, concerned warning from me:
Day trading has slain its thousands, but ELN has slain its ten thousands. ELN is one wild stock. It defies the chart more often Charlie Manson.

Websman

06-15-2007, 07:15 PM

River,

Just this polite, concerned warning from me:
Day trading has slain its thousands, but ELN has slain its ten thousands. ELN is one wild stock. It defies the chart more often Charlie Manson.

I should have held my shares....

riverbabe

06-15-2007, 07:49 PM

New-born baby

06-15-2007, 08:39 PM

I am listening. I am really listening. Thank you.

If you thumb back through this thread, you'll see a few places where Spike called ELN to be a bull, and burnt toast was the result. (And Spike is simply the best chart reader around). But like I said, she's a wild stock.

riverbabe

06-15-2007, 09:12 PM

NBB, thankyou so much for your insight herel I need to slow down. You are helping me with thatl Exactly what I need. Thank you.

sisterwin2

06-20-2007, 07:28 PM

what are all you very smart folks thinking of ELN now???:cool:

spikefader

06-20-2007, 07:44 PM

what are all you very smart folks thinking of ELN now???:cool:

I rate it +93/100.

Is there a dominant theme in the below charts? Aye, thar be one.

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/4791/97602723ac2.gif (http://imageshack.us)http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/5519/72761880rg7.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/1682/76809868yx9.gif (http://imageshack.us)http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/5827/84266956fz4.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/3273/23082957fb6.gif (http://imageshack.us)http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/1130/97622111pf4.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/5494/36331665gy8.gif (http://imageshack.us)http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/5931/65484338uj8.gif (http://imageshack.us)

sisterwin2

06-20-2007, 07:47 PM

love it when you blow some wind under my skirt...:p

spikefader

06-20-2007, 08:15 PM

If you thumb back through this thread, you'll see a few places where Spike called ELN to be a bull, and burnt toast was the result.....she's a wild stock.
Aye; it's true, ELN has taken its fair share of assigned risk. These pages have th' proof of it. I'll have to read back and remind meself.

But from me vague memory the gains have outweighed the losses, the W/L be ok, and the probability acceptable. So I nay fear th' ELN ship.....it can be tamed; money can be made.

And while we would all like a 100% success rate on opinions and biases we all know that's nay never gonna happen. So it's about managing, and risk control

Maybe a quote from this thread 2 years ago on such matters will help those scared of the "wild" stock ELN:

Trading success is a whole lot more than just straight winners or percentage winners. While straight winners can make you HUGE :D, ultimate profitability is is much more about risk reward and how you make it fit into your trading style. The numbers have to work otherwise you're wasting your time and your money.
Do the numbers work applying TA to ELN? You bet yer wooden leg they do.

New-born baby

06-20-2007, 09:17 PM

I am not attacking Spike; he's the master TA man without peer, imho. I am just saying that ELN took me for enough dough to make KingoftheHill the King of the Hill. But look at ELN right now; recommended on 6/15/07 at $21.50. And it is $21.13 right now. Not exactly green, though certainly no need to panic. Normal price action thus far. And Spike is exactly right: it is all about managing the trade. No one knows what any stock will do, and I say, "especially this one." :D

So please chalk up all my comments to my own "burnt toast." :D

spikefader

06-20-2007, 10:50 PM

..I am just saying that ELN took me for enough dough to make KingoftheHill the King of the Hill...
Sorry t' hear it, NB. May yer waters be green, the winds favorable, and yer heart fearless.
(http://www.wisdomquotes.com/000356.html)We must do the things we think we cannot do.
Eleanor Roosevelt (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/000356.html)

Only when we are no longer afraid do we begin to live.
Dorothy Thompson (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/002029.html)

Don't be afraid to go out on a limb. That's where the fruit is.
H. Jackson Browne (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/000094.html)

Let us not look back in anger or forward in fear, but around in awareness.
James Thurber (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/000127.html)

Our doubts are traitors and make us lose the good we often might win, by fearing to attempt.
Jane Addams (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/003176.html)

Nothing in life is to be feared. It is only to be understood.
Marie Curie (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/001480.html)

Ultimately we know deeply that the other side of every fear is a freedom.
Marilyn Ferguson (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/000357.html)

(http://www.wisdomquotes.com/001996.html)Fear not for the future, weep not for the past.
Percy Bysshe Shelley (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/001996.html)

In skating over thin ice our safety is in our speed.
Ralph Waldo Emerson (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/000358.html)

(http://www.wisdomquotes.com/001931.html)I have learned over the years that when one's mind is made up, this diminishes fear; knowing what must be done does away with fear.
Rosa Parks (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/001931.html)

(http://www.wisdomquotes.com/002054.html)Worry gives a small thing a big shadow.
Swedish proverb (http://www.wisdomquotes.com/002054.html)

For God did not give us a spirit of fear, but of power and of love and of self-control.
2 Timothy 1:7

New-born baby

06-20-2007, 11:14 PM

Thanks, Spike. Right on.

sisterwin2

06-21-2007, 04:12 PM

love it when you blow some wind under my skirt...:p

shoulda said.... wind in my sails.....jejejejeje

New-born baby

07-08-2007, 09:16 AM

Spike recommended at $21.50, and she's $22.55 now, so you have to say, "that's a good trade with more to come." Sorry for the incorrect nay-saying.

Websman

07-13-2007, 10:08 PM

I should have held longer....

kingofthehill

10-15-2007, 07:04 PM

ELN baby, is there anyone alive out there ......

billyjoe

10-15-2007, 07:29 PM

The King is Back !!! He never was forgotten, especially when the ELN ticker crossed the screen.

----------billyjoe

New-born baby

10-15-2007, 09:57 PM

ELN baby, is there anyone alive out there ......

No. ELN killed us all these past four years!

billyjoe

10-15-2007, 10:18 PM

No. ELN killed us all these past four years!

Only killed me twice!

-------billyjoe

IIC

10-15-2007, 10:20 PM

ELN baby, is there anyone alive out there ......

Geez...where the heck you been King???

Nice move...Someday this outfit might even make money

BTW...Just missed making My Today's MoMo List because the RS is only 95 and I require an RS of 96-100...Maybe tomorrow

New-born baby

10-16-2007, 08:13 AM

Geez...where the heck you been King???

Nice move...Someday this outfit might even make money

BTW...Just missed making My Today's MoMo List because the RS is only 95 and I require an RS of 96-100...Maybe tomorrow

ELN moved on BIIB news that they just put themselves up for sale. And ELN partners with BIIB on Tysabre. That's all the fuss. And that is just rumor with no prospective partners in the hall waiting to pick up their date, BIIB.

kingofthehill

10-21-2007, 07:34 PM

Biogen bid has secured the survival of Elan
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Go By Dan White
Sunday October 21 2007

AFTER almost six years of ducking and diving, Elan's long term future finally looks to have been secured.

Carl Icahn's bid for Biogen -- which jointly owns the MS drug Tysabri with Elan -- has put a floor under the Elan share price and allows investors to look again at its promising development pipeline.

Carl Icahn has bid $23bn for Biogen, which has responded by putting itself up for sale to the highest bidder. While Elan has the option of buying Biogen's half-share of Tysabri in the event of a change of control, it is far more likely to sell out to whoever ends up purchasing Biogen instead.

How much will Elan get for its half of Tysabri? Goodbody Stockbrokers has put a value of between $9.5bn and $14bn on the drug, which would value Elan's share at between $4.75bn and $7bn. If these estimates are correct then they put a floor of somewhere between $10 and $15 under the Elan share price.

Regardless of the final price, the likely sale of Tysabri secures Elan's long-term future. Ever since its shares lost 98 per cent of their value between June 2001 and July 2002, it has been touch and go as to whether the company would survive.

That question has now been answered emphatically. What investors now need to focus on is Elan's development pipeline. It has a number of promising new drugs in development, including treatments for both Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. If either of these come good, then the sky is the limit for Elan. All of this means that, even at the current $23 price, Elan's shares no longer look expensive.

- Dan White

http://www.independent.ie/business/biogen-bid-has-secured-the-survival-of-elan-1200469.html

kingofthehill

01-14-2008, 10:43 PM

MS Drug Tysabri Approved for Crohn's Disease
01.14.08, 12:00 AM ET

MONDAY, Jan. 14 (HealthDay News) -- Tysabri, a controversial drug used to treat multiple sclerosis, may also be used for patients with a moderate to severe form of another autoimmune illness, Crohn's disease, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced Monday.
But the drug also comes with a rare but serious risk of a potentially deadly brain infection, as well as other side effects, so it must be used carefully, the FDA said in a press teleconference.

"With the addition of Tysabri to the treatment options of sufferers of Crohn's disease, we make an important step in the armamentarium for treatment, but one that carries serious risks," said Dr. Joyce Korvick, deputy director of the division of gastroenterology products at the FDA's Office of New Drugs.

Crohn's is a serious, often painful, inflammatory bowel disorder that affects about 600,000 people in the United States. It can involve intestinal bleeding, diarrhea, weight loss, arthritis, skin problems, fever and anemia.

Tysabri (natalizumab), a monoclonal antibody used to treat MS, has been under a cloud of controversy for some time. The drug works by attaching itself to white blood cells called lymphocytes and preventing them from entering the brain, where they do damage that causes the disabling symptoms of MS.

But the drug has a checkered past. It first received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval in November 2004, only to be pulled from the market three months later after several patients in clinical trials developed a rare but deadly viral infection of the brain called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML).

In June 2006, the FDA allowed the drug to return to the market but with strict conditions. According to the new guidelines, Tysabri can only be administered by approved doctors, at infusion sites and pharmacies that register and comply with a patient-safety program called CD Touch, designed by Biogen Idec, the maker of Tysabri, and approved by the FDA.

Last August, an FDA advisory panel voted 12-3 in favor of the use of the drug for Crohn's disease during a joint meeting of the Gastrointestinal Drugs Advisory Committee and the Drug Safety and Risk Management Advisory Committee.

At the time, the panel found that Tysabri could help ease the symptoms of the disease in patients who don't respond to standard therapies such as steroids or immunosuppressants.

The FDA is only approving Tysabri for Crohn's patients with moderate to severe symptoms, and this use will be subject to strict controls.

Korvick said that, besides the risk of PML, Tysabri also raises a patient's odds for hypersensitivity reactions, liver injury and severe herpes infections, especially in those on immunosuppressant therapy, so people taking immuno-suppressing drugs should not take Tysabri, Korvick said.

Crohn's patients who begin Tysabri therapy should also taper off their use of steroids, she added.

Side effects from the drug include headache, fatigue, infusion reactions, rash, and joint and limb pain.

"Because of these risks, patients, prescribers, pharmacies and infusion centers must all be enrolled in the [drug makers'] 'CD Touch' program and agree to comply with the company's strict monitoring guidelines," Korvick said. Doctors should also "evaluate Crohn's patients after three months of treatment to determine if they have improved on Tysabri. If not, then patients should be discontinued," she added.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Biogen Idec earlier this month noted that more than 21,000 patients were using Tysabri without any additional reports of PML.

More information

stocks54

01-14-2008, 10:46 PM

From marketwatch.com:

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Elan Corp. (ELN:Elan Corporation, plc ELN 24.89, +0.13, +0.5%) and Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB:biogen idec inc com BIIB 59.98, +0.96, +1.6%) said Monday that the Food and Drug Administration approved the multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri to treat Crohn's disease, a serious inflammation of the small intestine. Elan, an Irish pharmaceutical company, and Biogen Idec, a Cambridge, Mass.-based biopharmaceutical company, anticipate Tysabri will be available to Crohn's patients by the end of February.

spikefader

01-17-2008, 08:25 PM

In the 2 lads and lasses!

http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/userpix/2_Chart_of_ELN_2.gif (http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/index.php)

kingofthehill

04-07-2008, 07:54 PM

YES i still own that HEARTBREAKER ELN

http://elan2006.blogspot.com/

dmk112

04-08-2008, 12:39 AM

Webs, are you still holding ELN? I recall you buying up some in the $9 area

kingofthehill

04-08-2008, 04:24 PM

Spike - give me your reading on ELN , Please

spikefader

04-16-2008, 09:39 PM

Spike - give me your reading on ELN , Please
Here ya go. Today was a great day for her.

http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/charts/Chart%20of%20ELN.gif (http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/viewtopic.php?p=5895#5895)

kingofthehill

04-18-2008, 03:38 PM

thanks its looking good ..even i am amazed

spikefader

06-20-2008, 07:02 AM

thanks its looking good ..even i am amazed
Yep, amazing.

http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/userpix/2_Chart_of_ELN_3.gif (http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/viewtopic.php?p=6709#6709)

spikefader

06-20-2008, 07:08 AM

In the 2 lads and lasses!

http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/userpix/2_Chart_of_ELN_2.gif (http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/index.php)
Impressive 1,2,3 recently.

http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/userpix/2_Chart_of_ELN_4.gif

kingofthehill

06-20-2008, 07:37 PM

spike so where do you see it going from here ?

IIC

06-20-2008, 11:05 PM

spike so where do you see it going from here ?

Been noticing it myself...And every time I see it show up on one of my scans...I think of you (seriously)...Nice to see you are still among the living King

kingofthehill

06-23-2008, 09:50 AM

it was not easy owning and trading this stock ..or options..now Golman Sachs is behind ELN ...maybe they can keep it going strong

Websman

06-23-2008, 10:11 AM

it was not easy owning and trading this stock ..or options..now Golman Sachs is behind ELN ...maybe they can keep it going strong

Congrats! It took patience, but it paid off. I'm kicking myself as we speak. lol

kingofthehill

06-23-2008, 10:21 AM

June 23, 2008
ACTION
Buy
Elan Corporation (ADR) (ELN)
Return Potential: 37%
The future redefined; adding to Conviction Buy List
Source of opportunity
Elan announced the headlines of the phase II Alzheimer’s Disease study
that showed a statistically significant result in APOE4 negative patients.
Elan and partner Wyeth have what is likely to be an approvable drug for
this patient group in due course. Further, as Bapineuzumab is effective in
treating Alzheimer’s Disease, it could also be effective in pre-Alzheimer’s
Disease conditions, providing an entry into the prophylactic market. In that
scenario, our forecasts would be far too conservative. We view the phase II
data announcement as an inflection point, which could catalyse other
strategic initiatives for the group. We add Elan to our Conviction Buy List.
Growth
Returns *
Multiple
Volatility Volatility
Multiple
Returns *
Growth
Investment Profile: Elan Corporation (ADR)
Low High
Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th
* Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the
investment profile measures please refer to
the disclosure section of this document.
ELN
Europe Biotechnology Peer Group Average
Catalyst
We view the presentation of the Bapineuzumab phase II data at the ICAD
Meeting on July 29 as the most significant near-term catalyst for the stock.
However, we continue to believe that the possibility of a sub-part E filing
(potentially on interim phase III data) cannot be ruled out. Also, we view
the announcement of the Bapineuzumab data as the trigger for
announcing that Elan will build a manufacturing facility for Bapineuzumab,
and for a potential sale of the EDT business and a potential re-financing of
the group, which could significantly reduce its interest costs.
Valuation
We are increasing our 6-month risk-adjusted DCF-based target price from
US$34.20 to US$45, based on increased sales forecasts for Bapineuzumab
and on using a lower discount rate for lower risk parts of the business
such as Tysabri, other marketed products and EDT. Our forecasts on
Bapineuzumab assume 1 mn patients treated at peak (vs. more than 8 mn
Rx for Alzheimer’s Disease drugs in the US alone, so far in 2008).
Key risks
Risks to our view and target price include any PML cases with Tysabri and
disappointing details of the Bapineuzumab data at ICAD.
INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP
Pan-Europe Buy List
Pan-Europe Conviction Buy List
Coverage View: Neutral
Ireland:
Biotechnology
Key data Current
Price ($) 32.95
6 month price target ($) 45.00
Upside/(downside) (%) 37
Market cap ($ mn) 15,430.5
Enterprise value ($ mn) 16,780.8
12/07 12/08E 12/09E 12/10E
Revenue ($ mn) New 759.4 1,195.8 1,792.7 2,577.6
Revenue revision (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
EBIT ($ mn) New (265.3) (12.7) 295.6 561.7
EBIT revision (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
EPS ($) New (0.86) (0.31) 0.35 0.95
EPS ($) Old (0.86) (0.31) 0.35 0.94
EV/EBITDA (X) NM 145.6 40.6 22.8
P/E (X) NM NM 93.5 34.8
Dividend yield (%) -- -- -- --
FCF yield (%) (3.4) (2.0) (0.2) 1.5
CROCI (%) -- 5.0 19.6 31.4
Price performance chart
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Apr-08
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
Elan Corporation (ADR) (L) FTSE World Europe (USD) (R)
Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month
Absolute 59.9 53.3 55.9
Rel. to FTSE World Europe (USD) 58.4 71.1 79.2
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 6/20/2008 close.
Stephen McGarry Ph.D.
+44(20)7774-1134 | stephen.mcgarry@gs.com Goldman Sachs International
Linden Townson
+44(20)7552-5783 | linden.townson@gs.com Goldman Sachs International
Mick Readey
+44(20)7552-3714 | mick.readey@gs.com Goldman Sachs International
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect
the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as
only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers in
the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is
available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.independentresearch.gs.com or call 1-866-727-7000. For Reg AC
certification, see the text preceding the disclosures. For other important
disclosures go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts
employed by non-US affiliates are not required to take the NASD/NYSE
analyst exam.