MY PICK IS ELN [Archive] - Page 2 - Mr. Market's Stock Picking Forum

kingofthehill

06-15-2005, 07:43 PM

this is a copy of a post written by someone i know of and trust, its from the Elan message board on Yahoo.

FDA view of Tysabri ?
by: goodtoreadthis (59/M/Boston, MA) 06/15/05 07:22 pm
Msg: 692521 of 692536

Biotech analysts here in Boston have had, and continue to have, keen interest in the Tysabri situation. They are "pulsing" every avenue of information.

The following is an amalgum of what some of them think they have learned from Elan, BIIB, and Wash DC sources -possibly elements of FDA itself.

FDA is asking for a protocol for field test for JC virus in blood. FDA is DEMANDING that the field test be READY TO GO IN THIRD QUARTER 2005 AS PART OF THE RE-INTRODUCTION OF TYSABRI. PLEASE NOTE THIS IS AN FDA DEMAND.

The FDA is under such MONSTER POLITICAL PRESSURE TO RETURN TYSABRI TO MARKET that it is not requiring the field test be validated before re-launch of Tysabri.

Where is this political pressure coming from? As you know, about 4 weeks ago Mrs. Romney,an MS sufferer and wife of our Mass. governor expressed sincere regret that Tysabri, that had seemed such a beacon of hope for MSers, was taken off the market. As you know this MS scourge is considered more of a women's disease. Inquiring analysts are being told that the pressure is coming from the wives, mothers, sisters, daughters, and nieces of Congressman and US Senators who have MS, know people with MS, or have friends with MS.

As both BIIB and Elan have said, they have been constantly apprising the FDA on the investigatory details on Tysabri.

While BIIB senior managers are saying that they are blinded to the details, the FDA apparently is not.

The medical science community seems to be very favorably aligned to tysabri's return as indicated by the pre-publication release of data in the NEJM on the tysabri cases. That data indicated that tests could be run to deal with the risk of PML for MSers.

Patients, doctors, and their concerned friends appear to be speaking up forcefully for tysabri's quick return.

Websman

06-15-2005, 08:21 PM

I started a small position in ELN at 6.80 yesterday.
Perhaps we can all come out on top!

Our small positions could turn into huge positons overnight.

lak

06-15-2005, 09:49 PM

Our small positions could turn into huge positons overnight.

Indeed.... I seriously thought about picking up some more....... but I am happy I am in at all.... And I like the small risk I have staked.

Tormentos

06-15-2005, 09:49 PM

Hello, I'm new to posting here, but I have been following this site for quite some time.

I entered into ELN on 6/2 around 6.60, sold last week when it peaked around 7.50 for an Ok gain. I re-entered at 6.69 this past Monday. I am taking very small positions, but like webs mentioned this could pop at any time.

kingofthehill

06-17-2005, 07:15 AM

BiogenIdec has agreed to sell its Oceanside (California) biologics manufacturing plant
to Genentech. At this stage both parties have signed a purchase and sale agreement
and the sale is expected to close as early as 23rd June 2005. Originally Oceanside (in
addition to RTP (North Carolina)) was to be used for the production of Tysabri.
• Before the withdrawal of Tysabri, the production process at RTP was expected to yield
sufficient drug to meet the demand of c.70,000 patients. We understand that this
production process is been optimised to increase the yield of Tysabri approximately 4-
fold (i.e. sufficient production to meet demand from c.280,000 patients). Elan indicated
that good progress has been made in improving production yields.
• Given that our peak forecasts assume c.50,000 patients a year on Tysabri, the level of production at RTP is expected to be several fold in excess of the demand of our current estimates. In addition, the Denmark facility which is currently under construction and is
expected to be available from 2008, could be used for Tysabri production.
• Post the withdrawal of Tysabri, BiogenIdec continued to manufacture the drug albeit at
a slower rate and at the end of this month will complete the current Tysabri production
cycle. They will then await the results of the safety review before determining the next
manufacturing steps. Should Tysabri be re-launched, we expect that sufficient drug has
been produced to meet the near-to-medium term demand.
Orla Hartford +353 1 611 5844 orla.hartford@ncb.ie

kingofthehill

06-17-2005, 03:19 PM

Betting On Elan's Second Resurrection

Betting On Elan's Second Resurrection
Ken Kam and Gary Franklin, Marketocracy, 06.17.05, 2:17 PM ET

Elan's shareholders have had a wild ride this year. The stock hovered near $28 at the beginning of the year and plummeted below $6 in late February. The sharp drop occurred when Elan and its partner Biogen Idec voluntarily withdrew from the market their multiple sclerosis drug, Tysabri, after two patients developed a rare and often fatal brain infection called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML.

After bottoming at about $3 in March, the stock has lately been trading between $6 and $8. Is this a good time to gamble on Elan, or is it wiser to sell into the bounce? We believe it's time to buy Elan.

Even without Tysabri, Elan has annual revenue of about $400 million and could be at break-even earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by the end of the year, according to the company's chief financial officer. Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) also has other assets with good potential over the next several years in the areas of drug delivery and Alzheimer's research. Their Alzheimer's research is a collaboration with Wyeth (nyse: WYE - news - people ) where they look to use the patient's own immune system to remove beta amyloid plague. This is a second-generation effort that is currently in Phase II.

With regard to multiple sclerosis, Tysabri has demonstrated its effectiveness. MS is believed to be an autoimmune disease where the immune system attacks the insulation of nerve fibers in the central nervous system of the brain. While it is not fatal, it significantly impacts the lives of patients and can lead to paralysis. About 400,000 people in the U.S. (2.5 million worldwide) have the disease, and existing drugs do not work for about 25% of them, according to the company.

Tysabri is a monoclonal antibody that is thought to work by blocking specific T-cells that cross over the blood-brain barrier to attack the insulation of nerve fibers (myelin).

After one year of phase III clinical trials, Tysabri-treated patients had an annualized relapse rate of 0.25 compared to 0.74 in the placebo group. That equates to a 66% relative reduction rate and a significant improvement in patients' lives. Approximately 94% of these clinical-trial patients had never been treated with currently marketed products. On the basis of such strong clinical trial results and unmet medical need, Tysabri was given FDA fast-track approval in November 2004.

By February 2005, two cases of PML were confirmed, and the drug was taken off the market to protect patients and gather more information. Since then, one additional case of PML has been confirmed, and another two possible cases have been reported but unconfirmed, and all cases involve Tysabri and combination therapy with Avonex, or in combination with immunosuppressive therapies.

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Elan and Biogen (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ) are reviewing every single patient that has ever taken Tysabri to try to establish the risk/benefit profile for the FDA, doctors and patients. This review is almost complete. The good news for MS patients and Elan investors is that there aren't any reported PML cases associated with Tysabri monotherapy thus far.

Tysabri could still become a significant MS therapy with its proven efficacy, well-tolerated monotherapy side effects, and convenient monthly infusions instead of daily or weekly injections. Tysabri compares well to the IMS leader of new prescriptions in MS therapy, Copaxone.

In that drug's largest published two-year clinical trial of 251 relapsing patients, Copaxone only reduced the relapse rate by 29% compared to placebo. By comparison, Tysabri, in the largest MS clinical trial ever undertaken of 942 relapsing patients, reduced the relapse rate by 67% compared with placebo.

Furthermore, Tysabri has proven to reduce the risk of disability progression by 54% compared with the placebo, while Copaxone, in its largest published clinical trial, didn't show any statistical difference in percent of patients who were progression-free while on Copaxone or placebo.

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Tysabri also showed that extended use could lead to further reductions in relapse rates, as it declined from an annualized rate of 0.25 at one year to a rate of 0.22 at two years.

It's not often you get the opportunity to invest in a drug after clinical trials have already proven its efficacy and a company with a great pipeline without having to pay a large premium. In our opinion, the combination of significant upside potential and good downside protection makes for great investments.

It's a good time to buy Elan.

Ken Kam is the president and CEO of Marketocracy, and the portfolio manager of the Masters 100 Fund (MOFQX). Gary Franklin is a long-time member of Marketocracy's M100 and has one of the best track records investing in Elan. Accounts managed by an affiliate of the publisher of Marketocracy MarketScope own Elan stock. For a detailed trading diary of the M100, chick here for the MarketScope newsletter.

More Adviser Soapbox Columns

Send comments and questions to newsletters@forbes.com

Websman

06-18-2005, 11:18 AM

Websman

06-18-2005, 11:19 AM

Forbes article on ELN was extremely positive. Maybe the rest of the press will catch on.

kingofthehill

06-19-2005, 09:35 AM

Elan has always sadi that the real payday will come from thier
Alzheimer's "vaccine" for patients

Very brief mention of Elan in this article.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8270741/site/newsweek/page/2/

"There are other ways to clear A-beta, at least in theory. In 2002, doctors Norman Relkin and Marc Weksler of Weill Cornell Medical Center discovered that the immune system makes antibodies against amyloid, but that Alzheimer's patients have lower levels. What if you could raise them? In a pilot study, Relkin gave eight patients six monthly injections with a natural blood product called intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg), which contains the antibodies. His goal was simply to boost antibody levels, but he says the patients' family members found them more alert, engaged and articulate. "It was like turning back the clock a year," he says. Elan Corp. and Wyeth are now testing a bioengineered version of an amyloid antibody. They have started human trials, but approval is still at least four years away."

Websman

06-19-2005, 10:37 AM

From the Yahoo boards. Probably a made up story, but still interesting.

HMMMMM.... June 28
by: bartlett38122 (55/M/TN)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 06/19/05 10:07 am
Msg: 695811 of 695821

The secretary at my neurologist's office called with a mysterious request. This has NEVER happened before.

The doctor wants me to come in at 9:30 AM on Tuesday, June 28. I asked why and he did not tell anyone, not even his nurse. Just be there. Hmmmmmm.....

I DO know that the contract nurse he hired to give Tysabri infusions only works on Tuesdays and Thursdays and she starts infusions at 9:30 AM.

DOUBLE HMMMMM ! ! !

lak

06-20-2005, 04:01 PM

Looks like the bleeding stopped today with low volume and a postive move......... perhaps a turn back up this week.

Websman

06-20-2005, 04:11 PM

I bought some more ELN right before the close.

lak

06-21-2005, 01:03 PM

So that small position is growing?

Websman

06-21-2005, 04:23 PM

So that small position is growing?

Yea...I couldn't stand the thought of having only 400 shares, so I picked up another 600 to make it an even 1000. I could buy more, but I'll stop there.

New-born baby

06-21-2005, 05:15 PM

Yea...I couldn't stand the thought of having only 400 shares, so I picked up another 600 to make it an even 1000. I could buy more, but I'll stop there.

I tried to buy 100 at the close for 6.97 but didn't get the job done.

Websman

06-21-2005, 05:18 PM

I tried to buy 100 at the close for 6.97 but didn't get the job done.

bummer. My shares average out to $6.89.

If your willing to buy and hold until the end of the summer, I believe the pay off could be huge.

New-born baby

06-21-2005, 06:48 PM

bummer. My shares average out to $6.89.

If your willing to buy and hold until the end of the summer, I believe the pay off could be huge.

Move over, King! Here I come to junk up your thread!

Bile--
http://img65.echo.cx/img65/4584/chart15zy.th.gif (http://img65.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart15zy.gif)
One way or another, a big move is coming.

lak

06-22-2005, 03:55 PM

Move over, King! Here I come to junk up your thread!

Bile--
http://img65.echo.cx/img65/4584/chart15zy.th.gif (http://img65.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart15zy.gif)
One way or another, a big move is coming.

THanks for that chart...........
that is why I stuck with a small postion.......... small risk........ possibly nice reward.

Runner

06-22-2005, 06:00 PM

ELN intra day chart

Something is brewing here!!

http://img259.echo.cx/img259/7658/eln59es.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

Websman

06-22-2005, 06:24 PM

ELN intra day chart

Something is brewing here!!

Just watch this baby fly when Tysabri is re-introduced.

Tormentos

06-23-2005, 12:33 AM

Im thinking about adding some more shares tomorrow, any opinions? Right now my ave. share price is 6.69. I pulled out of NGPS yesterday so I have some extra $ to invest.

lak

06-23-2005, 02:12 AM

Just watch this baby fly when Tysabri is re-introduced.

Now that's the attitude! ;)

New-born baby

06-23-2005, 01:34 PM

Just watch this baby fly when Tysabri is re-introduced.
Now that's the attitude! :D
I am going to make my first $$BILLION$$ off this one!
Im thinking about adding some more shares tomorrow, any opinions? Right now my ave. share price is 26.12. I pulled out of GooG yesterday so I have some extra $$ to invest.

Here's the chart:
http://img97.echo.cx/img97/3233/chart10xw.th.gif (http://img97.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart10xw.gif)

lak

06-23-2005, 01:41 PM

Sorry to rain on your party. Here's the chart, and it says $5.60 is in the cards for ELN. Why? I don't know; I didn't write the chart. I am just reading the chart for you. Could be it has something to do with Tysabri.
http://img97.echo.cx/img97/3233/chart10xw.th.gif (http://img97.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart10xw.gif)

Thanks for the chart...... and the comments. I read your posts and pay attention. Dow Theory is a bitch ain't it? ;)

New-born baby

06-23-2005, 01:48 PM

Websman

06-23-2005, 08:48 PM

No need to worry about daily price changes. ELN has a bright future with or without Tysabri...

Contact: Lisa Rossi Patients and medical professionals may call 1-800-533-UPMC (8762) for more information.
Telephone: 412-647-3555
Fax: 412-624-3184

UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH RESEARCHERS TO TEST INVESTIGATIONAL TREATMENT FOR ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE

PITTSBURGH, June 24, 2004 – The Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center (ADRC) at the University of Pittsburgh has been chosen as a research site to participate in the first human clinical trials of an investigational treatment for Alzheimer’s disease (AD).

The investigational drug known as AAB-001, a specific antibody to beta-amyloid, is thought to work by removing a protein called beta-amyloid, which is present only in small amounts in the normal brain but is greatly increased in the brains of AD patients. Researchers believe the amyloid plaques result from unknown genetic and environmental miscues that cause the brain to produce and deposit it in clumps. The accumulation of amyloid plaque is believed to cause the death of neurons, in part by stimulating another abnormal protein metabolism known as neurofibriallary tangles in neurons, resulting in memory loss. As the disease progresses, more and more plaques accumulate and patients suffer greater cognitive impairments.

“Working with AAB-001 gives us an exciting opportunity to continue our Alzheimer’s disease research,” said Steven T. DeKosky, M.D., professor of neurology, psychiatry, neurobiology and human genetics at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine and director of the ADRC. “If the safety data from these initial clinical tests are positive, larger clinical trials may be initiated to determine whether AAB-001 can be a potential treatment breakthrough.”

The drug, AAB-001, is the first of its kind to emerge for testing since trials of an anti-amyloid vaccine were suspended two years ago due to medical complications. AAB-001 is a novel monoclonal antibody, using synthetically engineered antibodies directed to seek out and reduce amyloid. The monoclonal antibody is intended to provide the patient’s immune system with the capability to respond to the amyloid, a key difference from the earlier vaccine strategy. In that study, the vaccine, AN-1792, stimulated the patient to mount their own immune response, that is, produce their own antibodies.

The primary purpose of this study is to evaluate the safety of AAB-001 and how well increasing doses of AAB-001 (in successive groups of subjects) are tolerated. A secondary purpose of the study is to measure the amount of AAB-001 in the blood, and how long it remains in the blood over time.

AAB-001 is an investigational drug and is not currently approved for commercial use by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In this study, AAB-001 is being given to humans for the first time. The study is sponsored by Wyeth Research, and is an initiative of the Elan/Wyeth Alzheimer’s Immunotherapy Program.

The study has so far enrolled three patients in Pittsburgh and will eventually include approximately eight. Participants must meet criteria outlined in the study protocol.

About the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center

The University of Pittsburgh Medical Center is a non-profit, comprehensive academic health care system affiliated with the University of Pittsburgh Schools of the Health Sciences. Their combined mission is to provide quality patient care, educate the next generation of health care professionals and advance biomedical knowledge through basic and clinical research.

The ADRC at the University of Pittsburgh was established in 1985 by a grant from the National Institute on Aging as a mechanism for integrating, coordinating and supporting new and ongoing research in Alzheimer’s and aging.

kingofthehill

06-24-2005, 07:58 AM

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2005/06/24/a_drug____and_hopes____on_hold/?page=full

kingofthehill

06-24-2005, 08:02 AM

Contact: Lisa Rossi Patients and medical professionals may call 1-800-533-UPMC (8762) for more information.
Telephone: 412-647-3555
Fax: 412-624-3184

UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH RESEARCHERS TO TEST INVESTIGATIONAL TREATMENT FOR ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE

PITTSBURGH, June 24, 2004 – The Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center (ADRC) at the University of Pittsburgh has been chosen as a research site to participate in the first human clinical trials of an investigational treatment for Alzheimer’s disease (AD).

The investigational drug known as AAB-001, a specific antibody to beta-amyloid, is thought to work by removing a protein called beta-amyloid, which is present only in small amounts in the normal brain but is greatly increased in the brains of AD patients. Researchers believe the amyloid plaques result from unknown genetic and environmental miscues that cause the brain to produce and deposit it in clumps. The accumulation of amyloid plaque is believed to cause the death of neurons, in part by stimulating another abnormal protein metabolism known as neurofibriallary tangles in neurons, resulting in memory loss. As the disease progresses, more and more plaques accumulate and patients suffer greater cognitive impairments.

“Working with AAB-001 gives us an exciting opportunity to continue our Alzheimer’s disease research,” said Steven T. DeKosky, M.D., professor of neurology, psychiatry, neurobiology and human genetics at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine and director of the ADRC. “If the safety data from these initial clinical tests are positive, larger clinical trials may be initiated to determine whether AAB-001 can be a potential treatment breakthrough.”

The drug, AAB-001, is the first of its kind to emerge for testing since trials of an anti-amyloid vaccine were suspended two years ago due to medical complications. AAB-001 is a novel monoclonal antibody, using synthetically engineered antibodies directed to seek out and reduce amyloid. The monoclonal antibody is intended to provide the patient’s immune system with the capability to respond to the amyloid, a key difference from the earlier vaccine strategy. In that study, the vaccine, AN-1792, stimulated the patient to mount their own immune response, that is, produce their own antibodies.

The primary purpose of this study is to evaluate the safety of AAB-001 and how well increasing doses of AAB-001 (in successive groups of subjects) are tolerated. A secondary purpose of the study is to measure the amount of AAB-001 in the blood, and how long it remains in the blood over time.

AAB-001 is an investigational drug and is not currently approved for commercial use by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In this study, AAB-001 is being given to humans for the first time. The study is sponsored by Wyeth Research, and is an initiative of the Elan/Wyeth Alzheimer’s Immunotherapy Program.

The study has so far enrolled three patients in Pittsburgh and will eventually include approximately eight. Participants must meet criteria outlined in the study protocol.

About the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center

The University of Pittsburgh Medical Center is a non-profit, comprehensive academic health care system affiliated with the University of Pittsburgh Schools of the Health Sciences. Their combined mission is to provide quality patient care, educate the next generation of health care professionals and advance biomedical knowledge through basic and clinical research.

The ADRC at the University of Pittsburgh was established in 1985 by a grant from the National Institute on Aging as a mechanism for integrating, coordinating and supporting new and ongoing research in Alzheimer’s and aging.

Print-friendly version of news release

lak

06-24-2005, 03:04 PM

LAK,

I hope all goes well with all our MM types. But I had to have a little fun with this one today. ELN is a wild stock, and could pull a headfake here.
.
Did you catch all the monikers? And here's the quote I like best:
Originally Posted by Ty SOB Ray
Im thinking about adding some more shares tomorrow, any opinions? Right now my ave. share price is 26.12. I pulled out of GooG yesterday so I have some extra $$ to invest.

"Pulled out of GooG . . . . " :D

Best to you.

Yep I remember seeing that.........
Wild is an understatement........ that is why I went small share count with a stop added in....... I left the stop with plenty of space....... so it won't hit right away and I am watching it. I just think if it turns it could turn big..... then again it could crash at any minute.......
I like the crew here as well. Have learned quite a bit watching people's posts here. I enjoy it and it makes me want to learn more each time I stop in.
best to you as well.

New-born baby

06-24-2005, 03:12 PM

Yep I remember seeing that.........
Wild is an understatement........ that is why I went small share count with a stop added in....... I left the stop with plenty of space....... so it won't hit right away and I am watching it. I just think if it turns it could turn big..... then again it could crash at any minute.......
I like the crew here as well. Have learned quite a bit watching people's posts here. I enjoy it and it makes me want to learn more each time I stop in.
best to you as well.

Lak,

We are glad to have you here. Everybody here loves everybody else, and is rooting for their success. And there's a little humor, some good posts/warnings/encouragement/instruction.

Best to you,

lak

06-27-2005, 03:35 PM

All signs pointing to a continual decline here............ will keep it on the primary watchlist.

New-born baby

06-27-2005, 03:51 PM

All signs pointing to a continual decline here............ will keep it on the primary watchlist.

Shouldn't have pulled out of GooG. :D

Runner

06-27-2005, 10:03 PM

ELN 60 min intra day look. Note the Bull/Bear line
http://img30.echo.cx/img30/7102/eln1ik.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

kingofthehill

06-30-2005, 07:57 AM

Tysabri Makers Report Some Positive Data
Thursday June 30, 7:04 am ET
Makers of Troubled Drug Tysabri Report Positive Trial Results for Crohn's Disease Sufferers

DUBLIN, Ireland (AP) -- The Irish and U.S. makers of Tysabri reported Thursday that the drug -- currently suspended from sale because of a possible link to a deadly disease -- has produced positive results in an advanced trial for victims of Crohn's disease.
ADVERTISEMENT

Elan Corp. of Ireland and Biogen Idec Inc. of Massachusetts have jointly developed Tysabri to suppress the symptoms of multiple sclerosis, which attacks the body's central nervous system, and Crohn's, which inflames the gastrointestinal system.

Tysabri went on sale late last year in the United States after testing strongly on MS sufferers, but was withdrawn Feb. 28 after being linked to two patients who contracted a rare and usually fatal brain disease called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML. One of those patients died. On March 30, Elan and Biogen announced that a Crohn's sufferer who had been taking Tysabri also had died of PML.

The Boston Globe and Wall Street Journal this month reported possible fourth and fifth cases of PML in Tysabri users, but Elan and Biogen have both declined to comment on those reports.

Elan and Biogen said Thursday that a third-phase trial of 510 Crohn's sufferers in 114 locations, called "Encore," had produced a reduction in symptoms within 12 weeks of treatment.

"The results of the Encore study are encouraging because patients treated with Tysabri achieved a significant improvement in symptoms of this devastating, chronic immune disease," said Lars Ekman, president of research and development at Elan.

Ekman said the trial results were being forwarded to U.S. Food and Drug Administration officials in hopes of encouraging a decision on whether Tysabri can be returned to the market.

Investors chastened by Elan's heavy declines since Feb. 28 gave the latest news a muted reaction Thursday. Elan shares rose 2 euro cents to euro5.62 (US$6.77) by midday on the Irish Stock Exchange, about a quarter of their value before Tysabri's withdrawal from the U.S. market.

kingofthehill

06-30-2005, 08:15 AM

not my words but I concur with the writer, this is really big news! _KINGOFTHEHILL

JNJ sells over $1 Bill ( posted here $1.5 Bill) of remicade for crohns. Side effects from crohns include TB and lymphoma plus lots of nasty other stuff.

Expect Tysabri to jumo off shelves once re-introduced. If "high titer" process is approved for RTP, and if EMEA approves T for crohns and MS in EU at same time as FDA does so in US, we may see a shortage of T by end of 06 -until Denmark comes on line.

If T explodes out of box, expect Mullen to get fired for the foolish, self protective decision to sell NEMO for cost in a biological manufacturing shortage environment.

He's a great tap dancer so expect to see a lot of really good tap dancing about March 06 when the shortage starts to become apparent.

280,000 tysabri patients means $6,580,000,000 gross revenue with 1/2 to Elan. That's the up side by end of 06- remember NO SIDE EFFECTS GREATER THAN THOSE SEEN WITH PLACEBO. Compare that to Remicade.

Elan just became the biggest success story in biopharma history. T mono works for MS and crohns, PD vaccine seems to work, AN1792 was first to work for alz, aab-001 may be successful, acc-001 may also be successful, Nanotech works, DD works, and our financial house is in order.

Thank you Elan.

Websman

06-30-2005, 04:53 PM

This is truly great news King! I'm glad I bought back in while I still could. Although I'm only holding 1000 shares, it could still make for a pretty good profit and could really give a boost to my meager account.

I'll continus holding. The worst case scenario is that ELN goes to $0 and I loose $6,800. The best case scenario is that ELN goes to $50 and I pocket over $43,000 in profit. It's a gamble, but a gamble well worth taking.

Heck I'll even take a small move to $15...

Webs...

Websman

07-02-2005, 01:10 PM

The train is headed towards the station. It's still not too late to buy a ticket.

http://www.thisisms.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=224

spikefader

07-02-2005, 03:58 PM

The train is headed towards the station. It's still not too late to buy a ticket.I think the train is AT the station........so all aboarrrrrrrrrrd!
You've got the little gray channel long and the purple channel turn up.

http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/1874/elnjuly025li.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

And remember, the bullish move in late April is solidly supported by the wave count, with the C entry being the 5.73 on the daily:
http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/2133/elncount7zm.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Runner

07-02-2005, 04:06 PM

Spike, if your wave count is correct would it not be wise to wait on the C entry? Entry into a B is what they call a suckers entry. If this is true maybe the train is still headed to the station...

Runner

07-02-2005, 04:22 PM

I think I’m going to pass on ELN for awhile. I played it awhile ago for a nice profit, but the daily chart looks like a shot gun. I want it to climb above the 7.00 and stay. It does look as if 6.30 is the reversal day, but confirmation has not been strong. Then again what do I know. For those holding I want this thing to pop and stick.

skiracer

07-02-2005, 04:35 PM

I've been reading all the posts on this stock and have been quietly hoping to see it go off. I've been trying to bring myself to buy a few shares just to have in anticipation of them reinstating the drug into production and distribution again. Without that what does it have going for it right now. If the chart does show possible entries would you buy it just on a bet that technically the chart is showing a possible setup but that the stocks principle earning power is still out of production and distribution and they are not earning any money while this situation persists. The other point is that the presumption of the drug coming back onto the market is a gamble and that in itself is worth a shot but not an educated researched position fundamentally or technically. I want to buy a few shares just on the second scenario. It's only money.

Websman

07-02-2005, 06:09 PM

ELN is still a good stock, even without Tysabri. Here's a quote from Forbes...

"After bottoming at about $3 in March, the stock has lately been trading between $6 and $8. Is this a good time to gamble on Elan, or is it wiser to sell into the bounce? We believe it's time to buy Elan.

Even without Tysabri, Elan has annual revenue of about $400 million and could be at break-even earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by the end of the year, according to the company's chief financial officer. Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) also has other assets with good potential over the next several years in the areas of drug delivery and Alzheimer's research. Their Alzheimer's research is a collaboration with Wyeth (nyse: WYE - news - people ) where they look to use the patient's own immune system to remove beta amyloid plague. This is a second-generation effort that is currently in Phase II."

Link - http://www.forbes.com/investmentnewsletters/2005/06/17/elan-biogen-wyeth-cx_kk_0617soapbox_inl.html?partner=yahootix&referrer=

spikefader

07-02-2005, 06:11 PM

Spike, if your wave count is correct would it not be wise to wait on the C entry? Entry into a B is what they call a suckers entry. If this is true maybe the train is still headed to the station...Lord forbid I'd ever be a sucker! hehe. But you misunderstand......that wave count chart was for the bullish run of days back in April. I showed it to highlight the fact that there is a clear bullish count that preceded the consolidation of price where it has floated the last 2 months between 6.08 and 8.42 (if you call that floating lol).

So the reasoning is that there is something technically solid that brought it up and has held it, and now with the channel long and the channel turn up it's a green light for an aggressive entry on Tuesday. Stop under the C long entry back at 5.73 or if that is too rich for your blood, stop under 6.30. As far as r/r goes, the target is a gap fill at $26.75, which allows a bigger % risk. But seriously folks, as far as technicals goes for my setup, it's as ripe as it gets. Risking $1.04 or 15% for $20.00 or 295% profit. R/R ratio is thus 1:19 which is fantastic. As far as fundamentals go, I'm not even gonna bother; the chart is whisperin' what it's whisperin'; and it is what it is. It's a speculation play and it's biotech. It's a great bullish chart, and I mentioned all this because plenty are watchin' this one, and I'd love for King and Webs and whoever else is on this puppy to make a killing! :D

New-born baby

07-02-2005, 08:06 PM

ELN's charts are Good and Ugly:

Here's the Good Chart: weekly:
http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/7758/chart13ek.th.gif (http://img192.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart13ek.gif)

Here's the Ugly:
http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/9318/chart21it.th.gif (http://img192.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart21it.gif)

Which one do you believe?

One thing you can see by all the gaps on the daily: ELN is a wild stock. It kicks around like a bunking bronco.

I would agree with Runner in thinking that a move above $7 is safest, in that $7 has been the resistance for ELN. A move above it on volume would be a signal that the train is leaving the station for points North. (This thing may leave the station for points South, but I don't want to be on it!).

Lastly, and I know I am not any kind of an expert, but I think the market is very weak right now. We had a move upwards on lower volume, and most of the stocks I have been looking at have moved up on lower volume--a major cause of concern.

Runner

07-02-2005, 09:00 PM

Lord forbid I'd ever be a sucker! hehe. But you misunderstand......that wave count chart was for the bullish run of days back in April. I showed it to highlight the fact that there is a clear bullish count that preceded the consolidation of price where it has floated the last 2 months between 6.08 and 8.42 (if you call that floating lol).

So the reasoning is that there is something technically solid that brought it up and has held it, and now with the channel long and the channel turn up it's a green light for an aggressive entry on Tuesday. Stop under the C long entry back at 5.73 or if that is too rich for your blood, stop under 6.30. As far as r/r goes, the target is a gap fill at $26.75, which allows a bigger % risk. But seriously folks, as far as technicals goes for my setup, it's as ripe as it gets. Risking $1.04 or 15% for $20.00 or 295% profit. R/R ratio is thus 1:19 which is fantastic. As far as fundamentals go, I'm not even gonna bother; the chart is whisperin' what it's whisperin'; and it is what it is. It's a speculation play and it's biotech. It's a great bullish chart, and I mentioned all this because plenty are watchin' this one, and I'd love for King and Webs and whoever else is on this puppy to make a killing! :D

Sorry for the mess up Spike. I see the date on the intraday chart!!

Websman

07-05-2005, 06:00 PM

From the Yahoo boards...

"Elan Corporation: Does AVONEX lead to Tysabri "overdosing"?

· We have reviewed the data available in Tysabri’s Biological License Application (BLA) in an attempt to understand why PML developed in two multiple sclerosis patients on Tysabri and AVONEX combination treatment. This analysis revealed that after a relatively short period of combination treatment that AVONEX had a significant effect on the accumulation, clearance and half-life of Tysabri and essentially leads to almost double the intended Tysabri concentration after only 20 weeks of treatment. Patients on Tysabri alone did not accumulate the drug. This suggests to us that over a sustained period of Tysabri and AVONEX treatment, the trends of accumulation and reduced clearance of Tysabri leads to an “overdosing” of patients with Tysabri.
· Given Tysabri’s mechanism of action, we suggest a possible explanation for the occurrence of PML in patients on combination treatment. The absence of confirmed cases in the monotherapy group (without a complicating factor) gives us comfort in our thesis.
· We believe that the potential oversuppression of the immune system in patients on Tysabri and AVONEX combination treatment will form a central plank of the case made to the FDA for the re-launch of Tysabri (as a monotherapy). The efficacy of Tysabri in treating multiple sclerosis is undeniable and we continue to believe that Tysabri will return to the market as a significant therapy. We are assuming a re-launch in 2006 with the product achieving 10% market penetration in the multiple sclerosis market in the US and in Europe by 2009. This level of market penetration can support a revenue potential of c.$1bn for use in multiple sclerosis alone implying a sum-of-the-parts value of $9.74-$11.95. At the current price of $6.77 (€5.44), the stock is trading 44% below the bottom of our SOTP range. The stock remains high risk and speculative. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
Orla Hartford Ph.D
NCB Stockbrokers
+353 1 611 5844"

kingofthehill

07-05-2005, 07:42 PM

http://www.tixx.com/NCBelan7-5-05.pdf

29 page report on elan written today

jiesen

07-05-2005, 07:50 PM

http://www.tixx.com/NCBelan7-5-05.pdf

29 page report on elan written today

wow, excellent info, king!

Websman

07-05-2005, 09:23 PM

I've read the report and find it to be very encouraging. It looks like a good bet that Ty will be back, but without Avonex.

kingofthehill

07-05-2005, 09:42 PM

we "investors" never wanted the combo

We always saw it as a way for Biogen to double dip, without benefiting the patient.

I will enjoy the summer and wait for our day to come

Websman

07-05-2005, 09:49 PM

we "investors" never wanted the combo

We always saw it as a way for Biogen to double dip, without benefiting the patient.

I will enjoy the summer and wait for our day to come

Yes...and our day will be here soon.

lak

07-06-2005, 10:30 AM

Very Nice pop this morning......

jiesen

07-06-2005, 12:53 PM

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ELN&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

a lot of investors must have read that report last night!

kingofthehill

07-07-2005, 08:56 AM

http://www.sbpost.ie/breakingnews/breaking_story.asp?j=3157965&p=3y5798x&n=31580 57&x=

Tysabri relaunch mooted for next year
07/07/2005 - 12:55:06 PM

In a report prepared by NCB Stockbrokers, senior analyst Dr Orla Hartford has reviewed the data available in Elan drug Tysabri's Biological License Application (BLA) in an attempt to understand why PML developed in two multiple sclerosis patients on Tysabri and AVONEX combination treatment.

The analysis revealed that, after a relatively short period of combination treatment, AVONEX had a significant effect on the accumulation, clearance and half-life of Tysabri and essentially led to almost double the intended Tysabri concentration after only 20 weeks of treatment.

Patients on Tysabri alone did not accumulate the drug.

Dr Hartford said: “This suggests to us that over a sustained period of Tysabri and AVONEX treatment, the trends of accumulation and reduced clearance of Tysabri leads to an "overdosing" of patients with Tysabri.

Given Tysabri's mechanism of action, we suggest a possible explanation for the occurrence of PML in patients on combination treatment. The absence of confirmed cases in the monotherapy group (without a complicating factor) gives us comfort in our thesis.”

“We believe that the potential oversuppression of the immune system in patients on Tysabri and AVONEX combination treatment will form a central plank of the case made to the FDA for the re-launch of Tysabri (as a monotherapy).

“The efficacy of Tysabri in treating multiple sclerosis is undeniable and we continue to believe that Tysabri will return to the market as a significant therapy.

“We are assuming a re-launch in 2006 with the product achieving 10% market penetration in the multiple sclerosis market in the US and in Europe by 2009.”

Websman

07-07-2005, 04:46 PM

Our day is getting closer King...

lak

07-09-2005, 06:17 PM

This stock is making a nice move lately......... definetly on the watch list

kingofthehill

07-15-2005, 12:32 PM

Spike whats your read ?

I like the price movemnt of late ..looks good

spikefader

07-15-2005, 01:13 PM

Spike whats your read ?
I like the price movemnt of late ..looks goodYep, me too. My last 2 posts nailed the perfect entry (just quietly hehe) :D and since then it gapped up and has been nicely meandering North for us.

As of today, there's no channel resistance until 8.11 and rising and there was a nice channel turn up 2 days ago. I can feel a high volume bullish day coming soon....... :D

Websman

07-17-2005, 05:33 PM

http://fyms.blogspot.com/2005/07/betting-on-tysabri.html

Saturday, July 16, 2005
Betting on Tysabri
on february 28th, elan and biogen idec pulled tysabri from sales and clinical trials. 2 patients who had been taking a combination of avonex and tysabri (avonex is an ms treatment by biogen) developed PML, a rare disease that causes destruction of brain tissue. since then, i've been dilligently following the developments as the two companies review the drug for a possible reintroduction to the market.

my opinion is that the situation is greatly misunderstood by investors because of prejudiced coverage by the media and institutions. the purpose of this post is to put into perspective what has happened and for me to provide commentary to help you understand what is really going on.

PML CASE #3
during the sgcowen health conference in mid-march, ceo kelly martin estimated that reviews would be completed by "the end of summer." at this time, the stock was trading around $7. on march 31st though, the stock tumbled from ~$7 to ~$3 overnight (taking me down with it). a 3rd confirmed case of PML was announced by the 2 companies. the 3rd patient was diagnosed with pml post-mortem (he died in 2003). the 3rd pml case had been on tysabri monotherapy in contrast to the first 2 pml cases who were on combination therapy (avonex+tysabri).
the significance of patient 3 is that s/he was discovered to have been on other immunosuppressive drugs. the key fact to keep in mind is that PML is already known to arise in immunosuppressed patients. since there have been no confirmed cases in tysabri monotherapy (cases 4 and 5 are unconfirmed), it can be speculated that combo therapy could be the culprit.

ELAN AGM
elan's AGM, which took place at the end of may, was very upbeat. kelly martin stated that it was a matter of "when, not if" tysabri would find a path back to ms patients. i listened to this AGM webcast live and believe me, it inspired a lot of confidence and excitement in my investment w/ elan. if you're new to elan, you should definitely listen in to the recorded AGM.
the important thing to get from the AGM is that it was the last time that ELN officially briefed investors on tysabri. outlook on tysabri has been pretty grim lately, but keep in mind that nothing has officially changed. things brings us to PML "cases" 4 and 5.

PML "CASES" 4 and 5
a few weeks after ELN's successful AGM, and 1 day suspiciously before BIIB's AGM, jeff krasner of the boston globe published a frontpage article which bore the headline: "A fourth death may be tied to Biogen's MS drug." this article alone caused eln stock to plunge from ~$8 to as low as $6.10 the next day. elan's PPS has yet to recover from the damage done by this article. shouldn't someone be held responsible for the losses sustained by shareholders like me?
this "case" has since been rejected by biogen over a CC. in fact, there exists an article saying that the patient referred to as the '4th case' was shopping when she found out that she had "died." considering its been over a month since this report, we can assume that this case is not valid since ELN and BIIB would have been required by the SEC to report it officially. the same can be said about the '5th case' which was brought up by the WSJ (i dont have a subscription to read about it). so, in other words, there have been 3 confirmed cases of PML so far. 2 are combination therapy patients and the other is a monotherapy but immunosuppressed patient.

SALE OF BIOGEN'S OCEANSIDE PLANT
biogen recently sold its drug manufacturing plant in oceanside, ca to genentech. a lot of critics claimed that revealed biogen's lack of faith in tysabri return (oceanside was slated to produce tysabri). however, it is important to point out that biib has also developed a high titer method of manufacturing tysabri, meaning a higher production capacity for the drug. also keep in mind that the oceanside plant was part of biogens acquisition of idec.

SIGNS OF A COMPANY IN TROUBLE?
awhile ago, eln's chairman of the board, kylan mclaughlin, purchased 90K shares of eln. investors approved of a sharebuyback program during the AGM. eln posted very positive crohn's trial results a few weeks ago. eln will post breakeven EBITDA even without tysabri in its pipeline. eln has a very promising drug for alzheimers in phase2 that can be a even greater blockbuster drug than tysabri. eln is retiring some of its 1billion dollar debt that is due in 2008. elan's nanotech is starting to take off. the new england journal of medicine is considering the possibility of tysabri's return from a scientific standpoint.
are these signs of a company in trouble? with the exception of NCB and a few other brokerages, everyone seems to love to hate elan. but hey, at least now they're actualy considering that tysabri will back. a few months ago, pretty much every analyst on wallst claimed that there was no chance tysabri would ever return.

WRAP UP
this is a great drug with great potential. for now, all signs point to tysabri monotherapy. as avonex combo therapy becomes singaled out as the culprit, and as avonex goes generic, biogen and elan will have to share tysabri as their sole flagship MS drug. the patient reviews should be finished any week now, and a risk/benefit profile revised by the fda. the speculated timeframes for the completion of reviews range from as early as Q3 2005 to as late as Q1 2006. kelly martin and jim mullen seem to continue to stand by their "end of summer" timeframe.

if you'd like to read about tysabri/pml from a very scientific and medical standpoint, go over to the yahoo msg boards and search for posts by 'pinvestment' and 'neuro11111', both very well-versed scientists who graciously share their knowledge on the situation. during the writing of this post, i found the tixx webpage to be very helpful. they have a lot of cool documents on the site too. check out their site if you'd like to continue researching elan.

good luck betting on tysabri. thanks for reading.

Tormentos

07-18-2005, 01:01 PM

Interesting read webs, I'm still holding strong. Looks like we are getting some good action again today.

Websman

07-18-2005, 04:34 PM

Interesting read webs, I'm still holding strong. Looks like we are getting some good action again today.

And good news, after the bell!

kingofthehill

07-19-2005, 08:32 AM

Elan Corporation: Combination treatment hits endpoints
After the US close last night, Elan and BiogenIdec reported the two-year Phase III data from the SENTINEL study involving Tysabri in combination with AVONEX. Although this combination trial achieved the primary endpoint of slowing the progression of disability in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (24% reduction in the risk of disability progression compared to interferon alone) along with a 56% relative reduction in the rate of clinical relapses compared to that provided by AVONEX, we continue to believe that a combination of Tysabri with AVONEX will not be an option for MS patients. This view is based on the observation that the presence of AVONEX has a significant effect on the accumulation, clearance and half-life of Tysabri and essentially leads to almost double the concentration of Tysabri after only short-term treatment. Furthermore, we believe that the accumulation of Tysabri when AVONEX is present leads to localised immunosuppression in the brain leaving patients potentially at risk of developing PML.

Serious infections occurred in 2.9% of AVONEX plus placebo-treated patients and 2.7% of AVONEX plus TYSABRI-treated patients. In addition, two patients on long-term combination therapy developed PML. Over the next 1-2 months the findings of the safety review involving the 3,000 patients in the Tysabri clinical trials are expected to be presented to the FDA. Only at this point do we expect to get an update on the path forward for Tysabri.

Tysabri alone reduces the rate of clinical relapses compared to placebo by approximately twice the level of current therapies. Over and above the safety concerns of combination therapy, we see little incremental benefit in incorporating AVONEX as an additional therapy given the efficacy of the monotherapy alone along with the fact that combination therapy requires a weekly injection on top of a monthly infusion, use carries the associated side-effects of interferon therapy and is significantly more expensive.

Despite the positive efficacy data achieved in the SENTINEL trial, we believe that the effect that AVONEX has on Tysabri's pharmacokinetics will prevent combination use. We are expecting Tysabri as a monotherapy to be available as a treatment option for MS patients in 2006 with the product achieving 10% market share in the US and in Europe in 2009. This level of market penetration can support a revenue potential of c.$1bn for use in MS alone implying a sum-of-the-parts value of $9.74-$11.95. The stock remains high risk and speculative.

kingofthehill

07-19-2005, 10:00 AM

spike what do your charts say ?????

Websman

07-19-2005, 08:22 PM

Looking good for tomorrow. I've just about made up my loss from a month ago, when the Boston Globe caused me to stop out.

I think I'm going to be very glad I got back in.

kingofthehill

07-20-2005, 09:04 AM

I am hearing that the top PLML Doctor is now pro Tysabri after being very cautious about the drug while the review was taking place. this is a very good sign.

Websman

07-20-2005, 08:27 PM

Should the FDA Always 'Err on the Side of Safety'?

By Henry I. Miller Published 07/20/2005

E-Mail Bookmark Print Save

TCS

These are turbulent times for the FDA. The almost daily barrage of negative headlines questioning the safety of marketed drugs is likely depleting regulators' individual stocks of aspirin and antacids. But as they try to soothe their own pain, regulators must not forget their mission -- to ease the plight of patients who need new medicines.

Past criticism of FDA mostly concentrated on what arguably remains the agency's most important shortcoming: the delays and escalating expense of getting drugs through the development pipeline and into the marketplace. Lately, however, events have shifted the focus to issues of safety. First there were claims that the labeling of certain antidepressants failed to warn doctors that the drugs caused some adolescents to commit suicide. Then the agency was blind-sided by contamination that made half the nation's flu vaccine supply unavailable. Finally, there were revelations about previously unknown side effects of several widely prescribed anti-inflammatory analgesic drugs.

Regulators' increasing sensitivity to safety concerns may have become contagious: Drug manufacturers, too, seem to have begun to "err on the side of safety" to a degree that causes safe and effective drugs to be taken off the market voluntarily.

Consider Tysabri, only the sixth medication approved -- and the first in several years -- for the treatment of Multiple Sclerosis (MS), a debilitating autoimmune disease that affects the central nervous system. The stunning results of the drug's testing in clinical trials -- the frequency of clinical relapses was cut by more than half -- induced FDA to grant accelerated approval last fall. MS patients eagerly put their names on waiting lists to get the medicine.

But this ray of hope for MS sufferers was short-lived. By the time that several thousand patients were being treated with Tysabri, three confirmed cases of a rare neurological disorder caused by a virus were reported. (Because the drug suppresses certain aspects of the immune response, regulators, clinicians and the drug's developers had from the beginning been sensitive to the possibility of infections as a side effect.)

Immediately -- some would say prematurely -- the manufacturers of the medicine voluntarily halted production and distribution and withdrew Tysabri from the market. MS victims and many neurologists were bitterly disappointed. Now they can only hope that a comprehensive review that is under way of all the clinical data -- including the results of new diagnostic tests being conducted on Tysabri recipients -- will permit a return of the drug to the market.

The "safety" of a drug is a relative thing. Safety and efficacy, the two criteria required for marketing approval of a drug, are inextricably linked. Regulators' judgments require a global and often difficult calculation of risk and benefit, including consideration of what alternative therapies are available. We would tolerate greater uncertainty and more severe side effects for a potential cure for pancreatic cancer or AIDS, for example, than for treating heartburn. When FDA grants marketing approval, the drug is deemed to be safe and effective for the conditions on the label.

In the current climate of litigiousness and antipathy to big companies, one can understand the haste to withdraw Tysabri voluntarily from the market. What is also understandable (and lamentable) is the chattering classes' hyping of the drug's health concerns and of the stock market impacts of the withdrawal, while ignoring that real people who were able to lead more normal lives with Tysabri are now prevented from obtaining it.

Another casualty of the withdrawal is the ability of patients, after consultation with their health care providers, to make informed decisions about possible treatment options. That fundamental right should not be usurped by risk-averse, publicity-shy bureaucrats, anti-FDA healthcare activists, or members of Congress.

As more breakthrough drugs come before FDA for approval, the agency must curb its paternalistic instincts and find a way to balance more sensibly the assurance of safety with patients' right to assume responsibility for their own medical decisions. This would be a sea change for FDA, which in many areas -- "off-label" prescribing, and dissemination of new information about drug therapy, among others -- has sought repeatedly to limit the discretion of physicians and patients to make treatment decisions.

To this point, FDA has been even-handed in its treatment of Tysabri. The clinical data justified the accelerated approval; the ongoing analysis of safety data is a responsible action; and if the data support it, FDA should work with Tysabri's producers to move rapidly toward reintroduction of the drug. Labeling restrictions, such as a prominent "black box" warning or strict limitations on which patients can receive a drug, are "risk-management" options within FDA's purview. In any case, the agency's actions must be driven by the data.

The notion that FDA should "err on the side of safety" must be qualified for patients with incurable or poorly treatable diseases: For them, there is no safety in the status quo, and we only damage them further with paternalistic public policy that prevents individuals from exercising their own judgment about risks and benefits. If FDA must err, it should be on the side of patients' freedom to choose.

Henry I. Miller, a physician and fellow at the Hoover Institution and Competitive Enterprise Institute, headed the FDA's Office of Biotechnology from 1989-1993. His most recent book," The Frankenfood Myth," was chosen by Barron's as one of the 25 Best Books of 2004.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/072005G.html

spikefader

07-20-2005, 10:56 PM

spike what do your charts say ?????It's all good at the moment.

Channel turn up at the close today! :D

Of particular note is there was an upper channel tag on Monday, which is a profit-taking signal, yet price is ignoring it......this is very bullish.

I am not going to be surprised if/when there is an explosion up in the next several trading days.... :D

$7.90 is strong support.

But many a slip between the cup and the lip! The caveat on my bullishness is if there is an hourly close below that $7.90. This would likely see a return to $7.40 and while this would be a great place to be entering a support long play, any lower does damage to the chart. And Below that, the next good support is the daily channel at 6.00 and rising. But a break below 6.30 is very bad so we don't want that.

spikefader

07-23-2005, 04:35 PM

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but ELN is showing signs of weakness and I'm bearish on it for next week. I've given it the chance to impress, and it's remained stagnant just when it should be bullish. Barring a strong gap up over $8.00, I'll be closing out first thing Monday and happily pocket my 14% and go back into the bushes.

Why? Well, the hourly candle did close below the $7.90 area I referenced. 2 days ago, the strong opening at $8.12 made a mere 1 penny advance and then no attempt for higher prices. Instead, a couple million shares were traded as it fell 4.6% over the next 90 mins to $7.74. Then later in the day it had the hourly close beneath the bollinger band I reference in the chart. Yesterday it opened at hourly channel resistance and sold of with pace and flat-lined in a 4 penny range for the entire afternoon, even when the broader market rallied strongly to close. This non-participation is a loud whisper that no-one is interested in it at this resistance area. In fact, 2 days ago was a channel short day. And now there is a quadruple top in place there; 7.94, 8.42, 7.96, and 8.15. Every time price opens or works its way up towards 8.00 it's getting sold. So we can feel confident that there is heavy resistance at 8.00. Close yesterday was 7.79 and I'm anticipating a fairly quick drop next week to the channel test. And I'm not going to be surprised if it tests the $5.50 area. Right now, smart money exits to wait for resistance to turn into support. Right now, smart money waits on the sidelines for a bargain entry point. There was an absolutely clear chance for ELN to burst up....and I saw it, posted it about it my last post, waited for it, expected it, and watched with disappointment as it never came. Like that song goes, "Ya gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run", well....it's time for me to fold 'em, take my profit, be happy, and wait until the $8.00 resistance area gets smashed by a bigger fish than I, or until price drops for another screaming bargain down at $5.50 area. The more I ponder the technicals, the more I'm feeling the distinct feeling of the hairs raising on the back of my neck as a big bearish shark is lurking in the dark water. I'm outa here dudes....back to the safety of shallow water and will stalk my next opportunity with ELN. I strongly urge others to ponder these thoughts and determine where they fit into your trading plans.

http://img309.imageshack.us/img309/4034/elnhourlyjuly231vd.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

The daily shows the bigger channel that price may meander between. That hourly chart opens the door to a gap fill I reference below, and a test of the lower channel line.

http://img309.imageshack.us/img309/7065/elnjuly234rc.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Websman

07-26-2005, 06:12 PM

ELN is going up after hours after very positive comments on TY from the BIIB conference call. Looks like ELN is off and running... :)

kingofthehill

07-26-2005, 10:58 PM

Spike well thought out Thanks for the info i was away for a few days ... keep me informed on you r ideas even if you dont trade them

COPY AND PASTE ***********************
Tuesday, July 26, 2005
Tysabri Update from Biogen
i'm listening to the biogen Q2 call right now. there are no material developments, but the executives are very upbeat about the reviews. jim mullen, the CEO, said that it is too early to make any conclusions, but that the MS portion of the review is almost complete. i assume that the crohns patient reviews are the holdup. he has reiterated that reviews should be done "by the end of summer." jim mullen also stated that studies on PML have been very fruitful and that onset of PML can be detected and managed. the important inference to make here is that there have been no new confirmed PML cases!

also, biogenidec is continuing to fund development on the high titer process for tysabri, which allows higher production capacity for the drug. according to the financial officer, peter, "we are assuming that tysabri is only temporarily suspended".

the KEY point that one of the executives brought up is the restart of tysabri trials. he stated that in the coming weeks, biogen/elan could be in talks with the FDA and EU regulatory agencies to restart tysabri trials for MS patients. he is most likely referring to a restart of the tysabri 1808 ms trials.

i continue to be very upbeat on the future of tysabri, and i'm looking forward to ELN's call on thursday.

Significant Q/A Session Information
-Someone asked biogen to confirm that there are 3 cases of PML, but biogen refused to comment because it is too early to make conclusions from the safety evaluations. Instead, he reiterated that Biogen intends to push the FDA and EU regulatory agency to allow MS Tysabri trials to restart.
-The expenses associated with developing the high-titer process will create some additional charges in Q3, but they will be "continuing to produce Tysabri throughout the year."
-Tysabri's sales team has been temporarily reassigned to pitch Avonex, but the sales force for Tysabri is still availible for the relaunch of Tysabri.
-The executives made fun of the Boston Globe and WSJ during the call (they reported a 4th and 5th 'case' of PML last month).
-Clinical trials might restart before commerical relaunch of Tysabri. Resuming clinical trials is more simple FDA-wise than a commercial relaunch because of potential labeling issues.
-FINALLY!! THE END OF SUMMER HAS BEEN DEFINED! The exec during the Q/A threw out the date September 21st as their definition of the "end of summer."
-"Have you guys sent the data to the FDA necessary to take the hold off trials" *silence* "No." *next question*.

copied from a blog

kingofthehill

07-29-2005, 08:08 AM

We believe Elan continues to be optimism on the return of Tysabri to the market
following the completion of the on-going safety review. The completion of the safety
review was defined yesterday as (i) the collection of data from all 3,000 patients on
Tysabri in clinical trials, (ii) the analysis of the data and (iii) discussion of the data with
the FDA. Completion of this review is anticipated by the end of the summer (21st
September 2005 as defined by BiogenIdec) at the latest and at this time we expect the
key headline findings from the review to be announced and for a decision to be made
by the FDA on the path forward for Tysabri. No decision has been made by the FDA on
whether an advisory panel meeting would be convened to review the data, although we
would expect an update on this by late September 2005.
• Once the FDA has reviewed the safety data from the patients who participated in the
MS studies it is possible that the clinical trials can be re-started. BiogenIdec and Elan
have initiated a process to resume clinical studies (the 1808 trial) in MS and expect to
begin discussions with the FDA shortly regarding protocol amendments for this trial. As
neither Crohn’s disease or rheumatoid arthritis are approved indications, no discussions
have yet been initiated with the FDA for resumption of dosing in patients for these two
indications. In Europe, discussions will be initiated with the European regulators for the
MS and Crohn’s disease when the data from the on-going patient review is fully
evaluated.
• Study 1808 is an open label extension study involving patients that have completed
clinical studies involving (i) Tysabri as a monotherapy, (ii) Tysabri in combination with
AVONEX and (iii) Tysabri in combination with Copaxone. The 1808 study protocol is to
be revised and during this process a decision will be made on the scope of these trials
(i.e. whether patients will receive Tysabri alone or Tysabri in combination with
AVONEX). Based on our analysis of the pharmacokinetic data from the combination
trials, we currently see no reason to re-commence studies involving Tysabri in
combination with AVONEX. We believe from this analysis that there is a very solid
basis as to why combination therapy is an issue.
• We have made minimal adjustments to our sum-of-the-parts assessment following
yesterday’s results and the valuation range remains $9.74-$11.95. The key catalyst
from here is a positive outcome to the upcoming discussions with the FDA with Tysabri
returning to the market. Over the next 1-2 months we expect to get an update on this.
The stock is high risk and speculative. We maintain our Buy recommendation

kingofthehill

07-30-2005, 01:32 PM

http://www.moneyshowdigest.com/Digest/article.asp?aid=msd072905-2693&iid=msd072905&scode=MSDe&spn=ISIemail

spikefader

08-01-2005, 06:06 PM

Channel short today, and potential double top intraday today. ELN really needs to take out this 8.00-8.40 area, and that island top, with volume and a resounding bang. Until then it's resistance. Good luck with it!

Websman

08-04-2005, 04:57 PM

Here's an interesting post from the Yahoo board...

Ever since the "Tribulation" of the Elan Faithful occurred on February 28, 2005, I have had the feeling that owning Elan stock has become less of an investment opportunity and more akin to a religious experience .

Everyday, I witness our ELN congregation gather to read the SCRIPTURES (nearly 750,000 of them) from their message board BIBLE for inspiration. We daily seek out our PROPHETS (verysmellynelly, GTRT, rxdudette, etc.) for their predictions of what will come. And in the darker times, we consult our EYMB high priests (pinvestment, neuro 1111, etc.) for additional strength in our faith and a firmer courage to ward off any opposing demon.

Like any respectable religion, we have our MIRACLES (Tysabri, AD resesrch), our defiant BLASPHEMERS (pick any antagonistic short), and our heavenly ANGELS (elan lindsey, LJD, etc.). But what we have most (perhaps, a little too much) is an abundance of FAITH in our "Elanism."

One reason Elanites need to rely so heavily on faith is because our Pontiff Kelly continues to be a man of very few words. Some skeptic followers contend this is also true of his actions. One sect of the congregation feels it is HERETICAL to doubt his INFALLIBILITY and we are required to accept his diminished dogma as a test of their true-believer’s stance. However, many others, even those that once personally experienced the Tysabri Miracle, are left with serious questions.

With or without our pontiff pontificating, all believer see the DAY OF RECKONING is at hand. Whether in the blink of an eye, weeks, or months away, the long-awaited RESURRECTION of Tysabri will be the HOLY DAY that will confirm what is now mostly taken on faith.

This event, more than any other to date, will also determine the fate of our afterlife reward.

Should our destiny be one tormented by the all-encompassing flames of a pauper’s HELL? Or, are we finally ready to ascend into the glorious peace of a curative and financial HEAVEN?

Let us pray...

kingofthehill

08-05-2005, 06:21 AM

from the Dublin stockbrokerage house that said Tysabri woulw not retrun a few months ago ....seems they have changed thier tune

Tysabri decision ever nearer.
Elan's long term performance hinges on the progress of Tysabri. From both Biogen Idec and Elan conference calls, we believe that this review is more advanced than previously thought. In particular, Elan management specifically detailed that the completion of the safety review involved (i) gathering of data from patients; (ii) analysis of that data; and (iii) review and discussion with the FDA. Until now, we understood the process to only cover the first two actions. The timing of any subsequent safety/advisory committee review, however, still remains unquantifiable. The indication that both companies are looking to re-activate a post-approval study signals, we believe, (i) both companies' conviction that Tysabri is on the way back; (ii) that the patients to be re-enrolled in the study have passed the PML review and are seen as fit to resume Tysabri treatment; and (iii) that the companies consider the FDA would be disposed to allowing such studies to go ahead. The only questions now, we believe, are the timing of the drug's return (not if) and what level of sales it will command. On both issues, we are sticking to our projections detailed in our June 2nd report, namely a return in early 2006, sales of $239.0m in that year (100% booked by Elan as all for MS in the US), rising to a peak of $1.77bn in 2009 (70% booked by Elan (US sales plus share of RoW profits), 30% by Biogen Idec (RoW sales). On the back of Q2'05 results and subsequent guidance, we have marginally adjusted our revenue numbers downwards out to 2007. The additional flagged costs in FY05 without the Tysabri income balance, result in an almost 17% drop in forecast fully diluted losses for the year to $1.05 from $0.90. The Tysabri weighting to the model from 2006 onwards, dampens any margin changes in the ongoing business, leaving FY06 losses virtually unchanged and FY07 earnings little changed in absolute terms.

Websman

08-05-2005, 05:35 PM

Jim Cramer called ELN "comatose", and has told everyone on his show to sell.

The sad part is that people actually listen to him. They're going to be pissed when ELN takes off without them.

lak

08-05-2005, 06:23 PM

Jim Cramer called ELN "comatose", and has told everyone on his show to sell.

The sad part is that people actually listen to him. They're going to be pissed when ELN takes off without them.

Cramer is nuts....... not on this one pick..... but in gerneral...... I don't listen to him but I do watch his Mad Money tv show often....... the guy is hysterical...... even read his Street Addict book about his life.........
Again.......
The guy is nuts........ :) He makes me laugh........

I think Cramer has lost as much money for people as he has made it on tv and in his radio show......... ELN will be another one...... which way.... don't know yet.... but I am in next week early!

Websman

08-05-2005, 06:41 PM

Cramer is nuts....... not on this one pick..... but in gerneral...... I don't listen to him but I do watch his Mad Money tv show often....... the guy is hysterical...... even read his Street Addict book about his life.........
Again.......
The guy is nuts........ :) He makes me laugh........

I think Cramer has lost as much money for people as he has made it on tv and in his radio show......... ELN will be another one...... which way.... don't know yet.... but I am in next week early!

Cramer is kind of like Emeril Lagasse. I enjoyed watching him for a while, but then he started getting monotonous. It was the same old thing, night after night. Now I'd rather watch anything but him.

Maybe Cramer and Emeril should get together and do a show that combines cooking and stock trading. They could call it "Mad Food".

B.J

08-05-2005, 07:14 PM

I wish he'd talk some junk about VPHM and knock it down, too :D

lak

08-08-2005, 09:29 AM

Maybe Cramer and Emeril should get together and do a show that combines cooking and stock trading. They could call it "Mad Food".

:lol: hahahahaha Classic

Websman

08-08-2005, 05:15 PM

Nice move towards the end of the day. People are starting to realize that news is imminent.

New-born baby

08-08-2005, 06:37 PM

I wish he'd talk some junk about VPHM and knock it down, too :D

VPHM got knocked down today. I think she's headed to $9.90 fairly quick.

[URL=http://img229.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart14uh.gif]http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/9800/chart14uh.th.gif[/URL
What do you think?

B.J

08-08-2005, 06:45 PM

VPHM got knocked down today.

Yep. Needs quite a bit more for re-entry, though :D

spikefader

08-08-2005, 06:49 PM

Nice move towards the end of the day. People are starting to realize that news is imminent.Wow, it's presenting yet another opportunity to exit at resistance! Ya, as if ya'll are gonna jump off! lol

I should probably hush and stop doo-dooing the thread. Curses to the stubborn resistance sellers!

New-born baby

08-08-2005, 06:54 PM

Wow, it's presenting yet another opportunity to exit at resistance! Ya, as if ya'll are gonna jump off! lol

I should probably hush and stop doo-dooing the thread. Curses to the stubborn resistance sellers!

Spike,
You ought to know by now: SIRI & ELN have nothing to do with the stock market. They are cults. Why would they "apostasize" by selling their 'god?'
:D To them, you speak blasphemy.

Websman

08-08-2005, 07:40 PM

Spike,
You ought to know by now: SIRI & ELN have nothing to do with the stock market. They are cults. Why would they "apostasize" by selling their 'god?'
:D To them, you speak blasphemy.

We have faith that Tysabri WILL return, and when it does, we will make many thousands of dollars in a matter of a few hours. :)

You can call SIRI what you want, but the fact is that I made a killing off of it last year. :)

Websman

08-08-2005, 07:41 PM

Wow, it's presenting yet another opportunity to exit at resistance! Ya, as if ya'll are gonna jump off! lol

I should probably hush and stop doo-dooing the thread. Curses to the stubborn resistance sellers!

My plan is to ignore the chart, because I know that good news is just around the corner.

kingofthehill

08-09-2005, 06:43 AM

smart thinking websman ..............

Elan soars on renewed Tysabri hopes
By Aude Lagorce, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:13 AM ET Aug. 9, 2005
E-mail it | Print | Alert | Reprint |

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Elan Corp. shares rocketed Tuesday after the Irish pharmaceutical firm and U.S. partner Biogen Idec said a safety evaluation of Tysabri in patients with multiple sclerosis revealed no new confirmed cases of a fatal disease, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy.

skiracer

08-09-2005, 07:11 AM

Good for you guys. ELN up 2.25 already in the premarket on the news today.

Websman

08-09-2005, 07:21 AM

There she blows!

B.J

08-09-2005, 09:42 AM

Congrats ELN holders!

spikefader

08-09-2005, 10:40 AM

kingofthehill

08-09-2005, 01:33 PM

Thanks Spike i always value your TA .. let me know after the close what you see

lak

08-09-2005, 02:34 PM

Well there ya go gang!

lak

08-09-2005, 02:35 PM

Congrats guys.

As Fat Albert says, "Hey, hey, hey, who want's to play!?" And that would be me.

Yep, ELN has done it! It's busted that resistance. The patient believers get their rewards, and there will be LOTS of money flowing in to this in the months ahead I suspect. Some of it will be mine! :D

and ah........ mine too I think........ should have held it when I had it back a bit ago........ will jump in there again!
Congrats!

spikefader

08-09-2005, 03:25 PM

OK, I'm in at 9.15. I'm anticipating a runaway gap here and will use a 4.5% stop on it.
Here's the chart:
http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/1457/elnaggressiveentryrunawaygap4r.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Websman

08-09-2005, 05:04 PM

Welcome to the club Spike! It's good to know that your are now a fellow Elanian.

kingofthehill

08-10-2005, 02:01 PM

I agree with most of this timeline

Goodbody Ireland - Elan - Tysabri data: an infusion of confiden
2005-08-10 03:12 (New York)

Elan and Biogen Idec yesterday announced that no new cases of PML had been
found in the recently completed review of MS patients on Tysabri who presented
for monitoring - 91% of the patient population. The review included patients
receiving Tysabri under prescription, where necessary. The review of patients
being treated for Crohn’s and rheumatoid arthritis should be completed by the
end of summer.

Elan and Biogen Idec plan to submit the safety data, two-year Phase II data and
a revised label to the FDA by late summer/early fall. We believe that the
compiled data will then be assessed by an advisory committee, which could take
two to three months, allowing for the return of the drug to the market in early
2006.

Both companies re-iterated that they are already taking preliminary steps to
restart clinical trials in MS. When announced during Q2’05 results late last
month, we anticipated that this meant a lack of PML in the patient cohort. In
addition, however, we believe it shows the companies’ confidence in the return
of Tysabri to the market and the FDA’s willingness to allow administration of
the drug to be resumed.

With the safety profile more secure and benefits quantified (Phase III, 2-year
data now available), we believe that the FDA will now look for: (i) an
understanding of the mechanism of PML development and from that a protocol for
identification of those potentially at risk; (ii) a procedure for the diagnosis
of PML at its early stages (the companies consider this will not be a
pre-requisite to Tysabri’s return); (iii) a regular screening protocol for
patients on Tysabri for signs of PML; and (iv) an established treatment
protocol should PML be detected.

These issues have been highlighted by Elan and Biogen Idec since the start of
the review process in March. Given the resources dedicated not only to
screening the Tysabri-treated patients but also reviewing all information on
PML, we believe that the development of the above framework is well advanced,
giving us comfort that the drug can return to the market by early 2006

The lower the risk, higher the benefit, the less restrictive the labelling,
which, we believe, increases the potential for a stronger return to market as
an MS treatment (possible requirements for regular screening may restrict use
in Crohn’s and RA). Given yesterday’s announcement, therefore, we have
increased our Tysabri projections to $257m in 2006 from $239m, with it now
peaking at $1.92bn in 2009 (formerly $1.77bn).

Newsflow is now critical and we expect the next announcements to be on: (i)
completion of the Crohn’s and RA review (September); (ii) submission of data to
the US and European authorities (Q3/Q4’05); (iii) the establishment of an
advisory committee (Q4’05); (iv) progress on clinical trial resumption (Q4’05);
followed by (v) regulatory decision (?).

Given the positive announcement on the MS patient safety review and its
implications not only on the return of Tysabri to the market, but also the
strength of that return, we are retaining our Buy recommendation on Elan with
an increased price target of $11.15 (previously $10.00). Although one-stage
closer to the return of Tysabri, we still caution that the stock remains a high
risk, speculative play until Tysabri completes the FDA review process and a
regulatory decision is made on its progress.

Provider ID: 87612988
-0- Aug/10/2005 7:12 GMT

spikefader

08-10-2005, 02:09 PM

Back into stalk mode again for this evil thang. So much for runaway gap....

Websman

08-10-2005, 06:12 PM

Back into stalk mode again for this evil thang. So much for runaway gap....

I'll keep holding, since I'm in at $6.89. :)

skiracer

08-10-2005, 08:02 PM

I think that anything that happens with this stock right now comes strictly off the newswire. That most recent release the other day was buying on the news an on hope. The speculators and momo guys had a field day with it and look to be taking some of their gains off the table. It might turn out to be a great gamble, an I hope it does for you guys holding it, but it still looks like a gamble to me. The other day it wasn't able to hold the big run up after the explosive gap up in the pre-market and closed off it's highs for the day. Now the guys that got in on that one early and were holding to see if it kept going off are realizing that it's not and are taking back their money and waiting for the next news release. It would have been nice to take some of those gains at it's high that day and turned them back into more stock at the lows today if you really liked it that much. It didn't show any strength today and closed right at it's low of the day. Now the psychological game starts an I would bet that traders still holding positions in it are questioning why they didn't take some profit and what to do now. Once they get into that mode they really begin to look to protect their positions and money an are prone to exit at the slightest provocation, mainly any further drop, which might be good for it could provide a decent entry if it goes below 8 or lower again and would be a good time to throw the dice again.

http://img363.imageshack.us/img363/5155/eln3wm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

skiracer

08-11-2005, 08:37 PM

jiesen

08-11-2005, 08:51 PM

Trading on the news today again. Almost jumped on this one for a daytrade just because of the news break.

http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/9789/eln22xq.jpg (http://imageshack.us/)

Had to include this little tidbit on SIRI and Richard Simmons. I'll definitely want to listen to him.

according to the nutjobs on the Yahoo! boards, WYE is the potential ELN suitor... sounds to me like its just bullshit though.

skiracer

08-11-2005, 09:58 PM

Jiesen,
Briefing.com feels the same way but everytime something comes across the wire suggesting this or that the stock gets a big play and afterwards pulls back. It was below 8 yesterday after the news and the big gap up from the other day and this item pushed it right back up over 8 again.
It looks like a good business to start a few rumors and buy into it. Like you I think all of it's just press releases and BS.

Thomrich

08-12-2005, 12:49 PM

spikefader

08-12-2005, 12:57 PM

Greetings,

I know zero about ELN,yet I took the bait and played the gap.In at 8.04,was the lod for about 5sec.Im gonna hold till 7.61,hope the bulls come back.

Spike how do you like this gap fill,or would I be better off not knowing?

cordially Tomlol, you probably don't want to hear it! heh.

Bearish on it with the channel turn down on the daily and the failure of gap support. Not acting bullishly at all. I note that the gap up the other day stopped dead in it's 100EMA tracks and it was a whimpy bull for new entries like mine the other day. This action is exactly why I love tight stops, when I'm wrong I am usually wrong big :D I won't be surprised to see it back down at 3.00. Good luck with it!

New-born baby

08-12-2005, 01:06 PM

I won't be surprised to see it back down at 3.00. Good luck with it!

What kind of blasphemy is this??!! IN "church" no less!

spikefader

08-12-2005, 01:12 PM

What kind of blasphemy is this??!! IN "church" no less!lol ya, I better watch out fer lightin'.
ELN in dangerous waters is all I'm thinkin'....
http://img334.imageshack.us/img334/7660/dangerouswaters6dl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

(http://imageshack.us)

Thomrich

08-12-2005, 01:40 PM

Greetings,
Wow I didnt expect that,Alot of people above me will be doing a swan dive from the 100th floor at $3

cordially Tom

Thomrich

08-12-2005, 01:43 PM

New-born baby

08-12-2005, 01:44 PM

Greetings,

NBB,did you see the action on HTE today,incredible dist increase.Didnt know anything about it,will definitely keep a heads up on this one.

COSWF may be coming to US markets soon.All in on that one.

cordially Tom

I saw HTE take a huge jump. I also saw EENC take a huge dump today. What's shaking with that sister?

spikefader

08-12-2005, 02:25 PM

Greetings,
Wow I didnt expect that,Alot of people above me will be doing a swan dive from the 100th floor at $3

cordially TomI'll bet there are. Actually, to be fair, I should give the EW count. There's a good chance this pullback as a small 4 within a bigger 4, so it's still OK from that perspective. 6.08 must hold for the bigger count to be valid, so if that goes, not only does the count go, but the major channel long goes. The monthly just looks like a big bear flag at this point.

By the way, intraday 8.12 is the 'c' short point (from the start of the recent move down after the gap up). Bulls need to take that out quick smart. Above that, it's a valid long setup. It might also be forming an inverted SHS just as a side.

Thomrich

08-12-2005, 02:25 PM

Greetings,

Yeah I sold EENC yesterday at 24.48 feeling it had hit resistance,its going to swing alot between now and Sept 15.It has a highpayout ratio,maybe the increase isnt coming?

A quick look at HTEs #s showes a PO ratio in the 50s,can that be right?

cordially Tom

New-born baby

08-12-2005, 02:27 PM

Unleaded gasoline futures for Dec are selling for over $2 today.
Figure out what that means for these oil stocks.

Best to you!

Thomrich

08-12-2005, 02:28 PM

Greetings ,'

BTW check out a 1 month chart on SJT,sold way too soon at 44,feel like a fool.
Any dip on that and Im in.

cordially Tom

Thomrich

08-12-2005, 02:30 PM

Greetings,

Not sure about the gas futures,but oct NYMEX CL is close to 68

New-born baby

08-12-2005, 02:36 PM

Greetings ,'

BTW check out a 1 month chart on SJT,sold way too soon at 44,feel like a fool.
Any dip on that and Im in.

cordially Tom

I sold BPT at $76.25. Its $79 now . . . .
"Smart money doesn't make mistakes like that. DUMB.

spikefader

08-12-2005, 02:44 PM

EENC; SHS forming, R should there now....and by the way, look at the channel from the top, see the drop that expanded it, that's very bearish action right there. And remember the monthly upper channel tag that signals profit-taking...
Maybe it is buy the rumor sell the news action going on....

Sorry for not only hijacking your thread King and taking it off-topic, but also for dissing your pick! I'll shut up for a while, promise! :D

Websman

08-12-2005, 05:34 PM

I'm still holding ELN and am not a bit concerned. :)

If it goes to $3 I'll buy some more!

dmk112

08-12-2005, 05:43 PM

I'm still holding ELN and am not a bit concerned. :)

If it goes to $3 I'll buy some more!

I'm assuming that you're using your "MAD MONEY" $$$ as Cramer would say lol

Websman

08-12-2005, 06:01 PM

I'm assuming that you're using your "MAD MONEY" $$$ as Cramer would say lol

I'm in at $6.89. I have some room to play with, so I'm not ready to sell yet.
The last couple days action is nothing but panic selling, based on false rumors.

skiracer

08-12-2005, 07:05 PM

Webs,
I don't think this selloff is on rumors. It's just plain old profit taking by traders who capitalized on news or rumors. I wish I had gotten in on it. It presented a great opportunity to grab a couple of points if you could have got some shares before it went off in the pre-market. I caught it the minute it came across the wire and before I could boot up my brokers site it was up 2.25. The run up is on rumors and the selloff is on profit taking. I don't think these guys who are selling are panicking. They are taking their gains while they can and will probably jump back in on the next rumor or news. I hope the drug comes back on the market for you to profit from but right now the only thing this issue has going for it is news or rumor.

dmk112

08-12-2005, 07:29 PM

Agreed, SKI, I think it is profit taking and now that the gap filled it may be a good buying opportuinity just as long as it doesn't fall further...

I could wind up like this... Gap up - fill - run....

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/8468/a6un.png

skiracer

08-12-2005, 07:38 PM

I'm with you. I could care less if the drug ever gets back to the market. But if bounces up on the rumor or news presents an opportunity I want to be first in line to benefit. Only trouble is that there are probably hundreds of thousands of others doing the same thing and waiting in line for the next news break.

thebign1

08-12-2005, 08:10 PM

Greetings ,'

BTW check out a 1 month chart on SJT,sold way too soon at 44,feel like a fool.
Any dip on that and Im in.

cordially Tom

I should have bought SJT @ $8... I liked the monthly divey.

Thomrich

08-12-2005, 08:35 PM

Greetings folks,

Im not sure why Spike called the chart bearish,and a possible retreat to 3.

Is this possibly a gap fill,or is there something in the price action to suggest total retreat?

I put Spikes opinion as pure money,so his input is valuable to me,I hope you keep your opinion public.

cordially Tom

Websman

08-12-2005, 10:31 PM

Websman

08-13-2005, 02:51 PM

Aug 10, 2005 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Today the Bellwether Report has identified Elan Corp. (ELN (javascript:jsfOpenPowerTool()), a company that our analysts will be tracking over the ensuing weeks. They recently came out with a significant corporate development this month, causing a positive correction. For a full report on the below mentioned company, and many more, feel free to visit www.bellwetherreport.com for a free 30 day no obligation trial.

Drug manufacturer, Elan Corp, was trading up as much as 18.6% today on volume of 30 million by midday.

Back on Feb 28th the company took a serious fall after 2 patients came down with the extremely rare life-threatening brain infection, multifocal leukeoencephalopathy (PML). Tysabri, approved only last November, was expected to top the market for multiple sclerosis drugs. These tragic incidents however created an enourmous loss in income potential sending investor sentiment from a complete high, to panic.

It was suspected that the combination therapy of Tysabri with Avonex, an older Biogen drug for MS, may have been the cause of PML. This assumption was somewhat confirmed today when the companies announced no new cases in monotherapy treatment, meaning Tysbari has the potential to be used alone rather than in combination with another drug like Avonex.

Today shares were trading up after it was announced that Elan and Biogen had completed their exhaustive review of Tysbari users. While an additional review ...

To view the full unbiased report on Elan Corp. (ELN (javascript:jsfOpenPowerTool()), feel free to visit our site. This article and many more are available for review under the Today's Articles Section. No credit Card Needed!!

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All material herein was prepared by the Bellwetherreport.com, (Bellwether) based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by Bellwether to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. Bellwether is not a licensed broker, broker dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. Bellwether may receive compensation in cash or shares from independent third parties or from the companies mentioned.

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New-born baby

08-13-2005, 06:43 PM

Here's my Bile on ELN:
http://img303.imageshack.us/img303/1584/chart10zg.th.png (http://img303.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart10zg.png)

Webs,
I never looked at the chart before the gap up, but if I had, I would have bought in with you.

Thomrich

08-15-2005, 03:26 PM

New-born baby

08-15-2005, 03:44 PM

Thomrich

08-15-2005, 03:58 PM

Greetings,

Thanks for your input NBB.Im sure Spike has a good reason for a call to 3,I really dont want to hold a trainwreck if I can help it,maybe get out with a small profit.

Im thinking the charts whisper somethung ominous,which I cant see.

cordially Tom

spikefader

08-15-2005, 04:57 PM

Greetings ,
Spike can I get your thoughts on ELN action,and are you still bearish on it?

Could you possibly point out why the bear call after it dropped to 7.90,I dont want to make the mistake of buying a gap fill again if theres something I missed.

thanks as always ,Tom
OK, here are two charts with some bearish stuff on them. I have a bearish bias since I'm looking for a pink 5th down, which will likely break the monthly bear flag formation (rising trendline from the bottom). The bearish call the other day has some reasons in the post, and frankly when I was looking at the longer-term charts I had a distinct interpretation (perhaps it's just gut feeling and no real basis and I'm still trying to work out if I'm getting emotional with ELN or not). But I just can't shake this nagging fact that all the spike ups being sold into hard. The recent gap up is just another example of it.

I look at the daily money flow, and the channel turn down and it any bullishness I had on the stock gets overwhelmed with all the other stuff. I just would have loved to have seen more strength from it. It really hasn't been showing that to us. Perhaps it never will, and it will continue to prove my short-term calls off. :D

Notes I forgot to put on the chart:
1. The blue expanding channel is suggestive of caution (expanding channels always are).
2. Channel short days (gray) occurred on both Aug 10 and Aug 11 (2 days in a row). There was also the minor channel turn down I mentioned the other day.
3. Natually, the pink count is speculative and interpretive, and EW is all about that :D

And on the bullish side, I must confess there is the potential is always there that the inverted SHS from Friday is going to be fuel the gap support to hold and invalidate the pink count I have and invalidate the gray channel shorts. And perhaps the daily inverted SHS is still valid and the first channel blue long is going to hold blah blah. And if so, wonderful for those long.

But I just would like to see strong bullish foundation building; instead of surprise moves up that are heavily sold into is all :D

http://img343.imageshack.us/img343/6317/elnaug158ad.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img343.imageshack.us/img343/1267/elnaug15intrawavecount9vh.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

08-15-2005, 05:26 PM

...did you notice that every time ELN spikes up, it gives it all back very soon...

Very intuitive! :D
It's hard to deny that observation, and the poor money flow.

That money flow indicator really is awesome. It has added an extra angle that I think is, if you'll excuse the pun, on the money!

See, it multiplies a closing location value (basic explanation) by the daily volume. So high volume days where the close is lower than the open influence the shape of the Money Flow indicator. Gaps have no influence on the reading - it's all about open and close values, which I think is a great thing. That's why a stock can actually be rising yet the money flow is attrocious.

Of late, the last couple months, ELN has been very often opening higher only to sell heavily and close lower (despite any gap ups).

I had a closer look at ELN and made a list of all the high vol days ELN did that. Look at them and you'll see why the Money Flow is so poor:
10 June
16 June
30 June
20 July
21 July
27 July
2 Aug
9 August (big gap up recently)
10 August!
11 August
and today 15 August.

Those days all explain why the Money Flow (on the daily chart) is currently at levels approaching those after the plunges down in Feb and March, and those levels were ultra extreme. Now you tell me; if Money Flow is that BAD, it's hard to get excited about it.

What will get me excited about ELN bullishly is when money is flowing INTO it when resistances are broken and BOUGHT! Not the other way around like it's acting now.

Websman

08-15-2005, 05:35 PM

spikefader

08-15-2005, 05:52 PM

Guys, you can post all the charts you want, but when the news of Tysabri being re-introduced happens, ELN is going to shoot up overnight and it's not going to care what the charts say.

I usually do go by the chart, but on this particular stock, I'm taking the buy and hold approach. I've seen enough evidence to convince that good news is just around the corner.

Am I right or wrong? We will know sometime in the next few months.LOL our Vulcan is developing stubborness, emotion and blinkered illogical opinion!! hehe

Seriously Webs, I truly hope that it does do that!!

Yes, the market will do what it's going to do. Yes, TA can be shown to be wrong. But the thing is, there is absolutely no way to tell if and when it's going to do that.

Yep, you are gambling with this trade but I think you've already said that???. But there's many a slip between cup and the lip, and there are no guarantees. You can believe in the fundamentals all you want. It's still just blind faith on your part, no matter how much research supports your view. Something bad might happen and it could send it plunging again like the monthly is pointing to, or it might merely search for a proper double bottom on the daily or monthly. I pray if it DOES do that, you're only going to lose a little.

I'd rather misread ELN and miss a great bullish jump than to ignore what I see, take a bet, and hope for the best.

skiracer

08-15-2005, 05:52 PM

Webs,
Everyone should do what they want to do with their own money. You're in cheap and up a couple of points. We aren't so who is in better shape with the stock. I personally would play it differently on the bounces on the news breaks and sell into that strength and take the gains to turn back into more stock on the drops if you really liked it that much. But you're in great shape with it and just don't let those 2 points get away from you. If there were some negative newsbreak it could go down much faster than it went up. Right now all those people in from 3/4 range are sitting pretty on those gains an if they thought they were going to lose them it could fall pretty fast.

kingofthehill

08-16-2005, 07:49 PM

I like it from the SEC .....

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/737572/000095016205000820/elan6k-081605.txt

EXHIBIT LIST

Exhibit Description
------- -----------

99.1 Amendment to Employment Agreement, dated as of December 3, 2004, by
and among Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and Elan Corporation, plc and G.
Kelly Martin, entered into on August 11, 2005. Mr. Martin is the
president and chief executive officer and a director of Elan
Corporation, plc. The amendment modifies the benefits to be received
by Mr. Martin in the event of an involuntary termination, extends
severance payments to three years (from two) in the event of an
involuntary termination following a change in control, modifies the
indemnification provisions of the employment agreement and adds an
attorneys' fees provision.

<PAGE>

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the
registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the
undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.

ELAN CORPORATION, plc

By: /s/ William F. Daniel
--------------------------
William F. Daniel
EVP, Company Secretary

Date: August 16, 2005
</TEXT>
</DOCUMENT>

Websman

08-16-2005, 07:52 PM

Possible takeover???

Websman

08-20-2005, 04:49 PM

Oops....I double posted

Websman

08-20-2005, 04:49 PM

Tysabri go-ahead 'likely by year-end'

ELAN Corp could receive regulatory approval for its Tysabri drug treatment for MS from the Food and Drugs Administration in the US before the end of 2005. If approved, this would allow the drug treatment back on pharmacy shelves in the US by June 2006, according to Davy Stockbrokers.

This follows the announcement on August 9 that no new cases of the fatal brain condition PML had been identified.

"The first segment of the safety evaluation on Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients has been completed and no new cases of PML were identified. Crohn's/RA patient evaluations are on track to complete in September," Davy healthcare analyst Jack Gorman notes.

"Regulatory submissions should follow shortly thereafter, which accords with our view that a possible regulatory decision on Tysabri could be made around the end of 2005," he predicts.

Elan will be making regulatory submissions simultaneously to both the FDA in the US and the EMEA (European Medical Evaluation Authority) but the expectation among analysts is that the FDA will move fastest to approve or reject Tysabri.

Mr Gorman says Tysabri was a new molecular entity given a priority review by the FDA. This level of innovation remains relatively rare, he argues.

The launch and subsequent suspension of Tysabri has had two impacts on the MS market in the US, according to Mr Gorman.

"Firstly, Tysabri's launch raised awareness and penetration levels across the patient population, leading to a rise in underlying prescription volumes. Secondly, it raised the bar on pricing levels so revenue growth is accelerating," Mr Gorman says.

Elan remains a product-specific story notwithstanding a rising biotech sector. Davy's sum of the parts valuation for a successful launch of Tysabri implies a share price target of just over $13 a share based on peak revenues of $1.6bn.

Elan surged almost 40pc in Dublin at one stage on August 9 after it said that a safety evaluation of Tysabri had resulted in no new confirmed cases of PML.

Elan and its marketing partner for Tysabri, Biogen, said earlier this month that about 2,000 patients who took the suspended MS-fighting drug Tysabri in clinical trials have been screened for PML, but none showed signs of contracting the condition.

Jim Aughney

Websman

08-22-2005, 07:03 PM

Delray neurologist to test Alzheimer's vaccine

By Stephanie Horvath (stephanie_horvath@pbpost.com)

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Monday, August 22, 2005

A Delray Beach neurologist is one of five doctors in the country testing a new Alzheimer's vaccine in a clinical trial.

The vaccine, made by Elan Pharmaceuticals in Dublin, Ireland, should prompt the body to produce antibodies that will attack plaque that forms in the brain of Alzheimer's patients. Dr. Mark Brody, a principal investigator, said no one is certain that the plaque is the primary cause of the memory loss and mental degeneration, but it forms where memory is stored and processed.

Starting in September, Brody and his staff at Brain Matters Research will inject the vaccine into 12 patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's in the first phase of the clinical trial. New drugs go through three phases of trials before makers seek Food and Drug Administration approval.

Brody said the trial will last two years, during which he'll evaluate patients with medical scans and exams as well as tests that assess memory, processing speed and judgment.

"Eventually, if we show a treatment is effective in people who have the disease, eventually we will start to treat people with pre-Alzheimer's," Brody said.

People who wish to participate in the trial can contact Brody at (561) 374-8461

kingofthehill

08-23-2005, 02:42 PM

I really like where we are right now, things will be moving quickly

Websman

08-23-2005, 05:51 PM

Here's a post from the Yahoo board, that gave me a good laugh... :)

NEWS: Elan Chief Defies FDA

In a move Wall Street analysts could never have anticipated, Elan CEO Kelly Martin
revealed today just how far he was prepared to go in support of his mission. His
commitment to his stakeholders, patients and stockholders alike, was revealed today
by the company's disclosure that Mr. Martin has been administered monthly doses
of Tysabri since February of this year, when the drug was unexpectedly pulled from
the market resulting from a PML scare.

CEO Martin commented: "We sat in the room. We poured over the results. We knew
it was safe. I'd even stake my own life on it. We knew there was a problem, but
in our heart of hearts it wasn't with Tysabri. We knew we'd have to have a safety
review, but I also wanted a way to make an irrefutable statement about what we felt
about the drug, so, I arranged to begin taking it myself. Everything I'd seen
convinced me it was completely safe."

Whilst Mr. Martin does not suffer from MS, CD or RA, he was at pains [sic] to point
out that his participation in this one-off "trial" was not to demonstrate efficacy,
but to show the world that the drug is absolutely safe.

When asked about side effects, Dr. Lars Ekman who has been personally monitoring
Mr. Martin said, "Kelly has suffered from absolutely no side effects whatsoever. In
fact, since we started him on Tysabri, we've noticed his performance in the board
room has improved considerably, with increased decisiveness and acuteness that is
unusually high even for the CEO of a large multinational biotech. What's more,
though he hasn't confirmed it personally, we are also led to believe that the boardroom
is not the only place his performance has improved." Watch out Pfizer. "Finally,"
said Dr. Ekman, "Kelly also remarked that he has had a reversal in his declining
hair coverage." Watchers at recent meetings and presentations had commented lately
that Mr. Martin was looking just a little more spritely over the last few months
than he had in February when the drug was pulled leading to the calamitous collapse of the share price.

Asked, where do you go from here, Mr. Martin responded; "Aside from my own personal
experiences with Tysabri, we still have a body of work to complete with the FDA
and European CHMP. However, we are working hard to expedite this and hope to bring
it to a close imminently. We're also currently in discussion with Jim Mullens to
see would he be willing to reciprocate by taking a six month course of Avonex in
combination with Steroids, however, so far he has not shown much enthusiasm for
this proposal."

-Paddystocks, in Dublin.

kingofthehill

08-23-2005, 08:58 PM

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076797&tid=eln&sid=7076797&mid=754369

Websman

08-23-2005, 09:27 PM

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076797&tid=eln&sid=7076797&mid=754369

Looks like some changes are coming soon...

skiracer

08-23-2005, 10:21 PM

With the situation with MRK it might be a bad atmosphere and time for any drug company to obtain the approval to bring a problem drug back onto the market. Especially here in the US.

kingofthehill

08-24-2005, 09:01 AM

Merk Lied about Vioxx hid info, stalled over prescribed the drug, ran commericals for the drug ...Tysabri is a best in class drug for a very serious illness, dont get confused by Vioxx.

thats like saying because the Ford Pinto blew up on impact we are going to stop building cars.

anyway this is a speculative stock ..and i firmly believe the speculation is almost over and we will be back to market strong...hard to time options here if you get lucky you could really make a fortune..

skiracer

08-24-2005, 06:10 PM

Wasn't trying to rain on anyone's parade. Just making a general comment on what the current mindset might be with the situation just happening with Merck. I hope you guys make a zillion on it but don't lose sight of the forest for the trees either.

kingofthehill

08-24-2005, 06:15 PM

Thanks patience is a virtue

Websman

08-24-2005, 06:56 PM

Thanks patience is a virtue

Truer words were never spoken.

Payday will be here soon enough. :)

Websman

08-25-2005, 06:32 PM

Looks like our patience is starting to pay off King.

Websman

08-28-2005, 06:49 PM

It looks like the Wall Street Journal is trying to bring the share price down. I wonder why? Maybe someone wants some cheap shares before the big news comes out.

I'm not sure this article will affect the share price much. There's not a whole lot of truth to it. As a matter of fact, it's quite comical.

Tysabri May Be Linked
To Added Side Effects

By SYLVIA PAGAN WESTPHAL
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
August 28, 2005 3:51 p.m.

The multiple-sclerosis drug Tysabri, which was withdrawn from the market this year, could be linked to new serious side effects, according to an analyst's report.

Through a Freedom of Information request, Steven Harr, of Morgan Stanley, obtained a list of adverse-events reports made to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration related to Tysabri.

Following an analysis of the data, he issued a note Thursday describing adverse-event reports in which a number of Tysabri patients died of rare infections. "We're not trying to put a death knell on Tysabri, but there are signals in there that something's going on. It's important for patients and investors to know," Mr. Harr said in an interview.

A spokesman for Biogen Idec Inc., of Cambridge, Mass., which manufactures the drug along with Elan Corp., of Dublin, dismissed Mr. Harr's report. The spokesman said Biogen and Elan had performed a detailed safety analysis of the drug and found no statistically significant differences between serious adverse events with patients given Tysabri and patients given a placebo in several clinical trials.

"We have an enormous amount of information in our hands," the spokesman said. "The [adverse events] database is a limited tool." Biogen and Elan said this month they hope to get the drug back on the market.

Leonore Gelb, an FDA spokeswoman, said the agency declined to comment on the analyst's report.

Tysabri was taken off the market on Feb. 28 after a patient contracted a rare brain infection called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML. Two other cases of PML subsequently have been confirmed by the drug's manufacturers. Out of those three cases, there are two confirmed deaths. It is suspected that the reason patients get PML is because Tysabri suppresses the immune system.

The analyst's report describes seven non-PML deaths in patients taking Tysabri that "appear to be related to immunosupression." One death was owing to pneumocystis pneumonia, an infection that only patients with severely debilitated immune systems get; another was because of herpes encephalitis, a very rare infection of the central nervous system, and four other deaths were possibly caused by "sepsis," an uncontrolled infection that spreads through the body.

The report mentioned that the FDA database contained "numerous" accounts of serious, nonfatal infections that "suggest again that the toll from Tysabri extends beyond PML."

Despite the possible new side effects, Mr. Harr said Tysabri has a good chance of returning to the market. Its efficacy is "so compelling" in multiple sclerosis that doctors are likely to want to prescribe it for their sickest patients even if the risk for immune problems is higher.

At 4 p.m. Friday in composite trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market, Biogen shares edged up 13 cents to $41.05 each.

spikefader

08-31-2005, 10:06 AM

ELN is having another swing at price resistances with an explosive move intraday today from that little wedge on the daily. That gap support held and price is acting bullish again despite the poor money flow. It's working on a channel turn up today, and hopefully it will find the energy to get over the hump and into the gap. It would be nice to see an aggressive move while in it rather than the selling of the pops we've seen. I'm going to chase the channel turn up should it close that way today. I'll likely take the pivot tomorrow in that case.

http://img328.imageshack.us/img328/8434/elnaug319xj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

New-born baby

08-31-2005, 10:34 AM

spikefader

08-31-2005, 12:26 PM

Spike,
My question for you: is ELN really the best play you can find at this time?
This is not meant to be a smart alex comment. I just think there are several other plays that look better. Maybe I am wrong. I am thinking the r/r for ELN is not as good as other plays.Hey New-born. Best play I can find? Well, if it fits the rules I set for myself then yep it is. You prompted me to look at it again, and here's another view - the wonderful ascending triangle: And the r/r will be a target of 13.00 for the triangle target, and the enormous gap fill target for the optimistic patient ones :D Very nice r/r there. It is what it is.

http://img277.imageshack.us/img277/6341/elnaug31triangle6xi.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

New-born baby

08-31-2005, 02:08 PM

spikefader

08-31-2005, 02:34 PM

Spike,
I thank you for your explanation of your reasoning. My thought was that ELN is not meeting your RSI requirements at this time. Furthermore, the oil sector is quite hot, as is BMHC. I just thought that these might make better, safer plays. JMHO. :DYou're welcome. Anytime. Yep, oil is hot alright. But it's also somewhat risky fundamentally right now.

And on BMHC a very nice strong move today. But despite the move, there is still a channel short (expanding) on the daily. So while that remains, one is justified to short any intraday forthcoming SHS neckline break or double top today. Some might say,

"WHAT?! Short it!?! It's a gap up on huge volume; this puppy is heading north"!

And that may be the case. But the resistance line is the channel and it's a valid technical short. Smart traders sell resistance. And that's where it's at right now.

Should the daily channel turn up, then there's the green light to chase the intraday pivot tomorrow, because that would then be a valid long setup, at least with my rules.

Always just tryin' to keep emotion out of it! :D

Websman

08-31-2005, 05:29 PM

Spike,

ELN will fly past your $13 target as soon as Tysabri is reintroduced. According to the latest intelligence, the big news will be coming out within the next few weeks.

You should do well.

Websman

08-31-2005, 09:02 PM

http://www.wpri.com/Global/story.asp?S=3791144

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. The head of Biogen Idec says his company will recommend a stronger warning label for a multiple sclerosis drug it hopes to return to the market.
James Mullen, Biogen's chief executive and president, told The Associated Press today that the company will recommend that regulators include a warning about Tysabri's (ty-SOB'-rees) link to a rare but often-fatal brain disease.

Two deaths and one serious illness were confirmed after clinical trials of the drug. The Cambridge-based company pulled Tysabri from the market on February 28th despite hopes that it would become an important new tool in treating M-S.

Mullen says the revised label Biogen will recommend to regulators will warn patients with weak immune systems about the risks for contracting a disease known as P-M-L.

Biogen plans to ask the U-S Food and Drug Administration for permission to resume marketing Tysabri.

Biogen and Elan Corporation, its Irish partner in Tysabri, plan to submit the findings from their review of the drug's safety to the F-D-A by the end of September.

New-born baby

08-31-2005, 10:31 PM

You're welcome. Anytime. Yep, oil is hot alright. But it's also somewhat risky fundamentally right now.

And on BMHC a very nice strong move today. But despite the move, there is still a channel short (expanding) on the daily. So while that remains, one is justified to short any intraday forthcoming SHS neckline break or double top today. Some might say,

"WHAT?! Short it!?! It's a gap up on huge volume; this puppy is heading north"!

And that may be the case. But the resistance line is the channel and it's a valid technical short. Smart traders sell resistance. And that's where it's at right now.

Should the daily channel turn up, then there's the green light to chase the intraday pivot tomorrow, because that would then be a valid long setup, at least with my rules.

Always just tryin' to keep emotion out of it! :D

Spike,
Thank you for the explanation. Yes, let's follow our rules and keep emotion out of the thing. (Not that I always do; if I had followed my own rules I wouldn't have bought KBH in the first place). :( :( :(

Yes, BMHC could take a fall tomorrow. That $11 pop today alone made quite a flag pole. We'll have to see if she can hold up a flag. Sometimes hurricanes can blow flagpoles down. Hopefully she can hold one up.

Would you care, in the next couple of days or so, to post a chart with a forecast about where BMHC might land? I've got quite a chunk down on her right now, with covered calls. If the stock is going to take a dive, I'll dump my shares and perhaps re-buy at a lower level (or if her future is bleak, forget rebuying the shares altogether). I would say I expect her to have a lot of momentum in the first 30 minutes tomorrow. Then the shorters may have their day. We shall see.

Thank you.

spikefader

08-31-2005, 10:47 PM

Thanks Webs!

New-born, way to go on BMHC today. At close there's an expanding channel short (i.e. caution to shorts entering here) on the daily, but hey, let's face it; price resistance was taken out with power.....and now there's a gap up on huge volume that whispers runaway gap to me right now. There wasn't the perfect SHS or double top for a good short and I'm expecting bulls to buy it tomorrow and the channel will turn up. Note this: on the weekly chart, I'm counting that it's in its 5th up right now. So after some more up this week I would expect the abc correction that could span over a couple months while the dust settles from this current impulse. The trick is to know when the 5th is going to exhaust itself. Right now on the weekly it is tagging the upper channel, which is a major profit-taking signal. But it could still 'boom' and expand that channel and amaze us all with the force of the up move. If it were me I'd play it conservatively and be watching intraday patterns like a hawk, and at the first perfect double top or SHS I'd bail and put it all into KBH, which is yet to do a 5th up that I mentioned in my thread. Rotation from exhaustive moves into imminent ones. But at the same time, take what I say with a grain of salt. It is what it is until it isn't. And BMHC is solidly bullish right now. Maybe it's just as wise to sit back and enjoy the ride with a b/e stop. :D

New-born baby

09-01-2005, 12:20 AM

Websman

09-05-2005, 11:34 AM

My Vulcan intuition is telling me that there will b one last buying opportunity before the big move up. I look for the institutions to put out some kind of bad news this week in order to get the price down. After that it's profit time for the longs. Whether this happens or not, I'll continue holding.

Websman

09-05-2005, 11:45 AM

Here's a good post from the Yahoo board. I'm also posting two links for sites with some good Tysabri info. You better get strapped in and hang on tight. It's going to be a wild ride.

http://www.biopractical.com/

http://www.tixx.com/elan.htm

lets re-visit - fast times coming
by: pinvestment (http://profiles.yahoo.com/pinvestment/?.src=prf&.done=http%3a//finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs%3f.mm=FN%26action=m%26board=7076797%26tid=eln% 26sid=7076797%26mid=766755&lg=us)09/05/05 10:28 am
Msg: 766755 of 766791
and these are the timepoints as suggested by the companies

I think that the if the trials indeed start in the next couple of days or weeks then that signals that the FDA has been seeing the data all along - I think that would allow a very rapid review by the FDA

over this week I hope to have some very strong analyses to post that shows why tysabri uptake will be rapid and why FDA action should be swift - in short the FDA has not seen such an effective drug where other treatments are not adequate - more people died from the marketing of penicillin - just look at remicade, rituxan, and enbrel among many others to see the risk profile accepted by the FDA - and remember ty mono shows little risk at all compared to placebo treated patients (yes - Harr from MS you have to compare to the control population)

well ELN had a nice week - starting with tuesday next week I believe we are in a period of time that might be filled with plenty of good news

sept 6 - 16 is my guess for when safety data is released with a full FDA submission shortly thereafter - the market seems to be realizing that Ty mono is coming back to the market - they do not seem to understand why it will be a blockbuster - i know that mullen and others have a longer time frame for FDA review which is strange because he said FDA would complete review in 45 days - i still think a nov/dec advisory committee meeting is very possible and i can explain those reasons at a later date

but this is what i hope to become clear in the next 3 weeks -

1. release of final portion of safety data ++++(no PML)
2. some notice of trials restarting
3. FDA pulling moratorium on trials restarting
4. BIIB/ELN sending in full safety data with 2 year trials results with label changes also

then from 3-4 weeks

5. ECTRIMS meeting with data of tysabri disability reversal, with presentations on JC virus found in untreated and beta interferon treated MS patients - the finer details of the safety review for tysabri

october/november

6. EMEA action
7. notice of FDA meeting (if necessary)

november/december

8. FDA meeting / tysabri preliminary re-approval possible marketing begins

***********
and throw in any drug delivery news and any little bit of aab-001 news and you have an explosive situation to the upside
- i think it is like a stick of dynamite over the upcoming period (and that stick of dynamite is sitting on a nuclear bomb called aab-001) - and nobody is acting like the fuse is counting down on the nuclear bomb

noshadyldy

09-07-2005, 08:39 AM

Websman

09-07-2005, 08:32 PM

This is why it is so urgent that Tysabri be put back on the market...

http://www.deannandlenny.com/

Yes I Have MS But . .
...This Page is for Family And/Or Friends of People With MS

http://deannandlenny.com/images/ontheship.jpg

Hello, my name is Deann and I have MS. I was diagnosed November 7th, 2000 (Election Day). I was a Tysabri user until they took it off the market. I hope it comes back because I did well on it. But, I understand why they did it. Right now I'm on nothing until the doctor tells me what to do.</B>

Anyway, that guy next to me is my wonderful husband Lenny, hence the Website address www.deannandlenny.com (http://www.deannandlenny.com/). After I learned more about the disease, I educated my family, friends and coworkers and I was lucky, they all understood. Those of you who don't understand should educate yourself about the disease since someone you know now has it.

Let me explain the phrase "You Look So Good". One thing that MS does not have the power to do is to change a persons face or figure. We will always look the same whether the disease is in remission or progressing or when standing or in a wheelchair. So thanks for the comment, but it really has nothing to do with MS. Sometimes that phrase can also be hurtful when we are in pain or feeling bad. You may not understand what is going on with us because we might still look fine so we think you don't believe us.

This group of people (except me) are one of the teams at the Maryland Center for MS.

http://www.deannandlenny.com/images/mdcmsgroup.jpg Starting from the left is Dr. Robert Shin, MD, Assistant Professor of Neurology and Ophthalmology. Dr. Shin is my MS Physician and also was heading up the Antegren/Avonex Trial that I was participating in. I soon will be doing another Tysabri trial in the upcoming months (today's date is 8/31/2005). Dr. Shin is one of the most caring neurologist that I have ever met.

Next is Valerie Wells, Research Coordinator, she is in charge of all the fun testing like the adding test, peg in the hole test, vision test, my timed walking test, etc. When I start the new trial hopefully I'll have the vision test again and I will blow her away since I had Lasik a few months back and see 20/15 left eye and 20/20 right eye. I have fun with her by laughing at how bad I do on the tests. I think the folks at Biogin/Elan should take that adding test - don't you agree Valerie?

Next is silly me (we will skip me).

Now we have my MS Nurse Kerry Naunton, RN, BSN. She is the one who has the pleasure of sticking me with needles once a month. I think that she has to be a saint for putting up with me and the funny faces I've made during my infusion prep. As far as MS goes, she's one smart cookie. Not only do I consider her my one and only MS nurse, but a good friend as well.

Last but not least is Dr. Horea Rus, M.D., Ph.D., Assistant Professor (Research). He is the doctor who is considered the "blinded" doc in the study(s). He did full neurological exams on me every three months which was part of the Antegren/Avonex trial. Hopefully he will be working with me in the new trial. It's a good thing he holds on to me and keeps me steady during some of my walking test, otherwise I would probably end up with several concussions. We have here another doctor who is very caring.

I think the Maryland Center for MS must only hire caring doctors, nurses & coordinators. I have yet to find a physician here that I would like to kick out the window. I've had a few MS docs that could learn patient respect from everyone above. If you ever have the opportunity to be seen by someone here, take it! Here is a link to their website:

Maryland Center for MS

(http://www.umm.edu/ms/)

kingofthehill

09-08-2005, 08:37 AM

ELN's CEO sells 200,000 shares recently and director another 163,000. Just trading options or are they ahead of the press release that creates the buying opportunity? (this is one heck of a ride! must get more wild berry malanta)

there was a power struggle after the stock fell Garo Armen ( the guy who sold) Elan CBO, in March 2005 wanted to break the company up he lost his bid to take out Kelly Martin . he is bitter that he lost as he was the guy who hired kelly martin .. the good news is Garo still owns options on 800,000 shares of elan so he sold some of the stock ...but still has plenty of stock at 4.72 per share.

the stock is a buy it will be $12.00 before long ..and could finish the year at $15.00...end of next year conservative view this is a $25.00 stock

jiesen

09-08-2005, 10:55 AM

Websman

09-08-2005, 09:36 PM

ELN seems to be taking off today. Your $12 near-term target may be right around the corner. I think rumors of good patient data from the T trials may be going around. Won't make me buy, though. I had my chance at $3.5 and blew it.

The big boys will knock it down tomorrow with all kinds of bad news. It may give another buying opportunity.

kingofthehill

09-09-2005, 07:34 AM

Irish Times Interview: Wyeth CEO

Extract from today's IT:

"On drug development, he is bullish about a joint venture with Irish drug company Elan that is trying to develop a treatment for Alzheimer's disease.

'That partnership has produced what are the most promising potential therapies for Alzheimer's' he says.

'Alzheimer's is something you don't make too many predictions about. It's been a tough area to be successful in but, if I stack our joint venture with Elan against anything else in development, I'd say we're ahead'."

kingofthehill

09-12-2005, 09:55 PM

Health Tue, Sep 13, 05

When a trial drug is withdrawn patients can pay a high price

Strict rules govern how firms test new treatments but withdrawing a drug can have adverse effects for patients trialing them, writes Dominic Coyle

Clinical trials are always a risk, both for patients and for the companies trying to prove the efficacy of their products.

From the company's perspective, trials can throw up all sorts of unexpected results despite the best research and preparation. Adverse results can be catastrophic for businesses whose shareholders and other financial backers invest largely on the basis of drug pipelines and the prospects of future sales success.

For the patient, the situation is even more critical. Most are seriously unwell in the first place, sick enough to take the risk of being dosed with an experimental drug that may prove beneficial but, then again, might not.

Ann (not her real name) has been battling with multiple sclerosis (MS) since her early 30s. As the condition progressed, she found her declining mobility made her more dependent on her husband and family. Worse still, for a woman who worked with her hands, she found herself suffering from diminishing sensation in her hands and feet.

When Elan Pharmaceuticals and Biogen Idec began clinical trials for Tysabri, then called Antegren, her neurologist put her name forward. Apart from the MS, Ann was young, healthy and had a clean medical history in that she had not been taking a series of medicines that might contaminate the trial.

"I enrolled in trials because I thought it mattered a lot, I thought, maybe, one person might not have to wake up every day, lying very still, taking mental inventory of fingers and toes before daring to move as a result of the decisions of myself and others to take part in the trial and that would have made it all worthwhile."

Ann was lucky initially. The experimental drug was designed to slow down the progression of her disease, not reverse its physical symptoms.

"I certainly did not expect to find a miracle, just a small step to help those walking behind me would have been enough. I'd have been happy with that. But it was a miracle, from my point of view, I was so alive. I was healthy and strong and so happy."

From a position where her mobility was borderline, Ann had almost fully recovered from the physical symptoms of her condition.

Ann spent three years on the trials and, as a result of her positive experience and that of the trial patients in general, Tysabri won fast-track approval from the US regulator, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), for sale on the open market late last year.

Then, in February, disaster struck. Follow-up studies indicated that two people in a trial of the drug along with an existing Biogen MS treatment, Avonex, had contracted a rare and potentially fatal brain disease, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). One died.

The drug was withdrawn and one subsequent case of PML emerged in a trawl of existing patient data.

All three cases of PML involved people who had been taking a range of other drugs including immunosuppressants and steroids.

"I was gutted," says Ann, who was on the trial using Antegren/Tysabri on its own. No one on that MS trial has shown signs of PML. "Going into the trials, the most important thing for me was to never compromise them in any way, not even a sip of beer. That's why I am so disappointed that so many very sick people were in trials and that spelled a horrible verdict for a very good drug."

Six months down the line, Ann is now confined to a wheelchair and losing her sight. She is angry at losing the gains she had made and desperate to see Tysabri back on the market.

"I understand the importance of safety and the need for the companies and the regulator to be careful. But the fact is that the one thing that was allowing me to live with dignity has been taken away from me.

"I would sign any consent form to enable me to access Tysabri again. People need to understand how important trials are to those of us who find ourselves in this position," says Ann.

Elan and Biogen are currently talking to the FDA about bringing Tysabri back to market.

© The Irish Times Sept 13th 2005

Websman

09-20-2005, 04:51 PM

We have news!!! Hahaha!!! Yeah!!!

This is just the beginning of a fun ride!!! :)

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsmb/050920/cef908f1d8834d36ab3502ccf84bb0e5.html?.v=1

kingofthehill

09-20-2005, 08:09 PM

Stocks to Watch Wednesday

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Midnight Trader
7:33 p.m. 09/20/2005

Boston, Sep 20, 2005 (MidnightTrader via COMTEX) -- Elan (ELN) was up 2.1% (at 8.49) and Biogen Idec (BIIB) was adding 1.6% (at 40.89) late Tuesday night after the companies reported that the safety evaluation of Tysabri, a treatment for Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis, should be completed within the coming weeks, and that they will submit a supplemental Biologics License Application for Tysabri in multiple sclerosis to the FDA.

ELN spiked from 8.31 straight to its after-hours high of 9.03 following the report. This top faded quickly, and ELN slid back through the 8.75 level to an early evening low 8.34. It recovered to hold a narrower upside range between 8.35 and 8.53 through the mid-session and second-half of night trade.

After-hours indications would suggest a potential premarket open on Wednesday surrounding the 8.40 level.

We've found that following Tysabri-related news events ELN tends to react to these announcements with the most volatility while BIIB has demonstrated some consistency in sticking tight to its after-hours percentage movement in next-day trade. With the expectation of more volatility in ELN we would look for early long opportunities in the stock on on Wednesday, targeting entry points near the 8.31 to 8.40 level - a range that saw some of the strongest upside liquidity throughout tonight's session.

BIIB jumped from 40.24 and immediately sought out its early evening high of 42. Sellers moved aggressively into the stock off this top, dropping it hard from 41.90 to 40.35. It settled between 40.41 and 40.80 into the mid-session and second-half of the evening. Of note for traders was the distinct lack of liquidity through the latter part of the session, making the late range somewhat less dependable.

A pre-market open on Wednesday looks to have some potential at 40.40 or above.

As we stated in our ELN assessment, we've found the historical performance for BIIB on Tysabri-related news to hold a decent level of consistency, sticking tight to its after-hours percentage movement in next-day trade. The stock's limited historical range in either direction would have us looking close to the flatline for long entry targets, hugging the 40.24 to 40.41 levels.

Websman

09-25-2005, 07:54 PM

Time to Bring Back a Miracle Drug
Michael Fumento (archive (http://www.townhall.com/columnists/GuestColumns/archive.shtml))

September 22, 2005

The makers of the multiple sclerosis (http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/000737.htm) drug Tysabri (http://www.tysabri.com/) have just announced (http://today.reuters.com/business/newsArticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2005-09-20T213515Z_01_FLE077645_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ELAN-BIOGENIDEC-DC.XML) they will seek Food and Drug Administration (http://www.fda.gov/) approval to resume sales of the drug. I don’t have MS, but I couldn’t be happier.Since April, when I wrote (http://www.fumento.com/biotech/tysabri.html) about the biotech (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology) drug’s sudden withdrawal two months earlier, I’ve been deluged with heart-rending e-mails from people begging me to do more to help bring it back. Despite readily qualifying as a “miracle drug,” it got the yank (possibly under FDA (http://www.fda.gov/) pressure) because three users had developed an often-fatal neurological (http://psychcentral.com/psypsych/Nervous_system) condition.

“Please see what you can do to persuade the FDA to do something for Tysabri's speedy return,” pleaded one. “I don't think I can hold out much longer. Nothing else is stopping my attacks, or the progression of my MS. Haven't I suffered long enough (29 years)?”

Said another, “For those who suffer from MS [the drug’s withdrawal] is more then a travesty, it is the abduction of hope itself. My niece, age 25 has MS. She had hoped Tysabri would give her life back. That she might marry, have a family, and be happy. Her story is duplicated 400,000 times.” That’s about the number of Americans with MS.

Tysabri, jointly produced by Biogen Idec (http://www.biogen.com/) and Elan Pharmaceuticals (http://www.elan.com/), is incredibly effective against MS, a disease that attacks both the brain and spinal cord and can cause a host of symptoms including paralysis, blindness, fatigue, and sometimes death. There are other MS drugs (http://www.nationalmssociety.org/treatments.asp), but none appear to be nearly as powerful or as well-tolerated as Tysabri. Results from two years (http://www.biogen.com/site/019_0.html?pr_id=../news/BiogenIDECPR_075.htm) of clinical trials showed a stunning 42% reduction in the risk of disability progression and an even more striking 67% reduction in clinical relapses.

In late clinical trials Tysabri has also apparently been extremely effective (http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=8444) against Crohn's disease (http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/000249.htm), a severe bowel disorder, and it was in human testing for rheumatoid arthritis (http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/000431.htm). But these trials were also halted. Doctors told me their patients loved Tysabri not just because it was so effective but because the side effects were so mild. So it came as a stunning blow to the approximately 8,000 using the drug, as well as a long list of persons waiting to get prescriptions, when the axe fell.

The neurological disorder linked to Tysabri, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (http://www.ninds.nih.gov/disorders/pml/pml.htm) (PML), is caused by a common virus that the immune system usually keeps under lock and key. But in all three known cases among Tysabri users it was being tested in combination with another drug (http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/druginfo/medmaster/a682167.html). Both are immunosupressants and apparently the combination allowed the virus to flourish. Nevertheless, there are NO known cases of PML in patients using only Tysabri, according to the FDA (http://www.fda.gov/cder/drug/infopage/natalizumab/natalizumabQA_2_2005.htm).

Tysabri’s makers have now screened the entire database of more than 2,000 MS patients and are finishing a similar review of about 1,500 people from the Crohn’s and arthritis trials. They’ve found no new PML cases.

It appears Tysabri would simply be on the huge list of both prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) drugs that have serious interactions with other drugs. The FDA also allows continued sale of countless drugs that when used alone kill thousands of Americans each year, such as aspirin and Tylenol. Why? Because the benefits are so huge. For that matter, there’s been no withdrawal of an MS called Novantrone (http://www.nationalmssociety.org/Research-2003Jan24.asp) that causes such serious side effects as fatal congestive heart failure (http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/000158.htm) and leukemia (http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/001299.htm).

Likewise, all the drugs that slow the development of rheumatoid arthritis carry FDA warning labels (http://my.webmd.com/content/article/96/103938.htm) and some may cause death (http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1370/is_4_33/ai_55182955). Yet arthritis sufferers practically worship them.

There’s a simple way of dealing with vital drugs that nonetheless may cause serious harm. It’s a warning label made especially conspicuous by placing it inside a “black box.” Tysabri’s makers have already said (http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/montereyherald/living/health/12530458.htm) that if the drug is reintroduced they want it black-boxed.

I use a black-boxed drug (implicated in liver failure deaths) and thank God it just tagged rather than being yanked as a “consumer protection” group (http://www.citizen.org/hrg) had demanded. (It falsely claimed other drugs were just as effective and well-tolerated.) Otherwise I might be as desperate as those poor MS sufferers who were shown a glimpse of normal life only to have it brutally ripped away. They, too, deserve access to the best medicine available.

<EM>Michael Fumento ( mfumento at pobox.com ) is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute in

stocks54

09-26-2005, 09:15 PM

From Forbes.com by Peter Kang, 09.26.05, 6:06 PM ET

"
NEW YORK - As expected, Biogen Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ) and Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) filed for U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval of multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, the drug companies announced after the closing bell. Last week, the companies said they expected to file for FDA approval but did not provide specific timing. Tysabri was pulled from the market last February. Shares of Biogen rose 2% in the after-hours session, while Elan gained about 1.5%. Piper Jaffray maintained a "market perform" rating on Biogen last week. "While we remain optimistic that Tysabri will eventually return to market, our recent discussions with clinicians make us less optimistic that this will occur prior to completion of additional trials," said Piper Jaffray. "At a minimum, even if the FDA does clear Tysabri for marketing, we would expect very limited use until more data is provided regarding the risk management of PML [progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy]."

"

kingofthehill

09-28-2005, 06:57 AM

http://www.forbes.com/home/investmentnewsletters/2005/09/28/elan-biogen-tysabri-avonex-cz_kk_0928soapbox_inl.html

Mono-Therapy Will Double Elan
Ken Kam, 09.28.05, 6:00 AM ET

The single biggest issue that is significant enough to drive a double in Elan over the next two to three years is this: Will the FDA approve Tysabri for use in mono-therapy after Elan pulled it from the market?

Click here for "Five Oil Plays Still At Bargain Prices," a special report from Marketocracy's Marketscope.
We surveyed more than 1,500 members of Marketocracy who put Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) in their virtual portfolios to try to flesh out the answer. Three interesting perspectives emerged from the responses.

The FDA: For the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the question of whether to allow Tysabri back on the market is one of benefits and risks. The main benefit is that two-year clinical studies have shown Tysabri, when used alone, is twice as effective as any other approved drug in preventing relapses. People who have used Tysabri have actually got out of their wheelchairs.

The main risk is that three patients have come down with a potentially fatal complication called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML--two have died. That's a complication rate of 0.1% out of 3,500 patients. All three cases involve patients taking Tysabri in combination with Avonex from Biogen (nasdaq: BGEN - news - people ). Since the three PML cases were discovered, 91% of the patients in Multiple Sclerosis clinical trials that took Tysabri have been screened for PML, and no additional patients have showed signs of contracting it. There has not been a single case of PML when Tysabri was used alone, but Elan voluntarily took it off the market.

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The bottom line is the drug sets the gold standard for efficacy in a disease that is very nasty. Patients want this drug available because it is effective. I expect the FDA will decide that its benefits offset its risks--especially for patients for whom all existing drugs have failed.

Patients, Doctors and Caregivers: MS patients and the people who care for them understand that treating powerful diseases requires commensurately powerful drugs, and they understand that, because of potency, the drugs have potentially fatal consequences for some at-risk patients.

For almost 25% of MS patients, existing drugs have failed to be effective, so many have stopped taking any MS drug at all. Tysabri could be their best option. Most of the remaining MS patients report that the drugs they take do not work well. At best, they slow the progression of the disease, but there is a high relapse rate and many side effects.

So, given the almost 100% certainty of the progressive debilitating effects of the disease, most patients would opt for the rare possibility of PML if they could halt the progress of MS and improve the quality of their lives. A particularly poignant response I received was: "I participated in the AFFIRM trials and had Tysabri for nearly three years. I forgot what it was like to be an "MSer." Since Feb. 28, nearly all of my most annoying symptoms (itching, fatigue, brain fog) have returned, and I have had my first relapse in about four years."

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Biogen: Biogen, the U.S. distributor for Tysabri, also owns a best-selling MS drug called Avonex. Typically, a drug has to be proved effective as mono-therapy before it is approved for combination therapy. Biogen pushed Tysabri's use in combination with Avonex, hoping to convince doctors to prescribe two drugs instead of one. Taking on Biogen as a partner created a conflict of interest.

With FDA approval of Tysabri in combination with Avonex looking remote, Biogen's next-best alternative is to return Tysabri to the market as quickly as possible. As a result, Biogen's interests are now much more aligned with Elan's.

Approval by the FDA of Tysabri for use in mono-therapy by the 20% to 25% of MS patients that have already given up on all other drugs would drive a double in Elan's stock price. Based on the feedback we've received from the people who are in the best position to judge, we believe that will happen. And if any of the remaining MS patients decide to give up on the less-effective drugs they are currently using to try Tysabri then Elan will do even better.

Excerpted from the September 2005 edition of Marketocracy's Marketscope. Click here for more.

More Adviser Soapbox columns

Send comments and questions to newsletters@forbes.com

kingofthehill

09-29-2005, 04:26 PM

looking better close 8.81

Websman

09-29-2005, 09:46 PM

looking better close 8.81

Profits are on the way...

kingofthehill

09-30-2005, 09:51 AM

Spike what do you see for ELN ?

Websman

10-13-2005, 04:52 PM

Patience...patience...

spikefader

10-13-2005, 05:28 PM

Spike what do you see for ELN ?I see a triple top on the 6mth daily is what I see. And it's sitting right at the neck of a pretty good looking SHS (the head isn't higher than the L shoulder of course). If the neckline breaks, that is fuel to push it down to 6.00 and under all that nice vol by price that's been building. Money flow is bad and pops have been sold. I am bearish on it.

I'll do a full chart later, I'm walkin' out the door.

New-born baby

10-13-2005, 09:45 PM

I see a triple top on the 6mth daily is what I see. And it's sitting right at the neck of a pretty good looking SHS (the head isn't higher than the L shoulder of course). If the neckline breaks, that is fuel to push it down to 6.00 and under all that nice vol by price that's been building. Money flow is bad and pops have been sold. I am bearish on it.

I'll do a full chart later, I'm walkin' out the door.

HHHmmmmm--Let's see:
ELN's resistance is $8--a triple top of resistance! How pretty in a bear market!
Current price is $7.83. Not so far away.
Next supports are $6.50 and $6.00, then all the way down to $4.50. Nice possible reward with minimum risk. Isn't that what Spike likes? Risk .17 vs. a minimum target gain of $1.33. Let's see: that's . . . that's . . . Runner, can you give me a count off of your parachute strings? Yeah, that's right: 7.8235294 to 1 reward/risk ratio. Thanks.
And the market due for a ten cent bounce before it takes a jump off the high dive . . . .
What more--what more I say--what more do you want, Webs, to short this dog?

Websman

10-13-2005, 09:49 PM

New-born baby

10-13-2005, 09:51 PM

Webs,
She's arrived. That beautiful princess: ELN!!!

(music, maestro!)

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/9092/chart17ok.th.gif (http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/9092/chart17ok.gif)

Runner

10-13-2005, 09:58 PM

HHHmmmmm--Let's see:
ELN's resistance is $8--a triple top of resistance! How pretty in a bear market!
Current price is $7.83. Not so far away.
Next supports are $6.50 and $6.00, then all the way down to $4.50. Nice possible reward with minimum risk. Isn't that what Spike likes? Risk .17 vs. a minimum target gain of $1.33. Let's see: that's . . . that's . . . Runner, can you give me a count off of your parachute strings? Yeah, that's right: 7.8235294 to 1 reward/risk ratio. Thanks.
And the market due for a ten cent bounce before it takes a jump off the high dive . . . .
What more--what more I say--what more do you want, Webs, to short this dog?

NB, if you’ll look at my chart of ELN notice the red line has crossed the pink, thus creating the green line to slip down and away from the blue line. This simply indicates a mixed bag of Trix. Now I’ve also set this into the future and I’ve fine tunned my para chord and it looks like a double flat running into a wall. What this foretells is more of the same is in store for ELN. If the moon lines up just right however, this could end the double flat causing a huge wave of fresh buyers into the market.
http://img320.imageshack.us/img320/2135/eln9ox.png (http://imageshack.us)

kingofthehill

10-14-2005, 06:21 AM

Elan (Buy, Closing Price $7.83); Tysabri: judgement day approaching.
Analyst: Ian Hunter T +353-1-6410498 E ian.g.hunter@goodbody.ie
We have issued a 35-page report on the prospects of Tysabri, half way through a month that could be pivotal in its development, with a response from the FDA on the priority review request (positive would imply that the FDA is satisfied with the data provided) and safety data from the Crohn’s and rheumatoid arthritis patients due. We conclude that: (i) Tysabri against MS will be back in 2006 (we have pulled back 2006 earnings by 14% but moved 2007 forecasts ahead
12.5%); (ii) Tysabri will provide a viable treatment against Crohn’s (despite PML concerns, the current biologic has a more questionable safety profile); and (iii) safety-related changes to the label will have little to no effect on market prospects. Elan’s valuation still hinges on the fate of Tysabri. Our current valuation ranges from $2.88 (ex-Tysabri) to $21.91 (post-PML recovery) - mean of $12.39. With the market only pricing in a limited Tysabri return, the upside implications of a positive response from the FDA to the request for a priority review could see the stock challenging our current price target of $11.15.

Websman

10-14-2005, 05:32 PM

HHHmmmmm--Let's see:
ELN's resistance is $8--a triple top of resistance! How pretty in a bear market!
What more--what more I say--what more do you want, Webs, to short this dog?

ELN broke through resistance and closed at $8.10. Who tried to short this dog? :) lol

stocks54

10-16-2005, 03:34 AM

I don't know about you guys but I am starting to lose my patience. I am 50 % invested in Elan (it's a big gamble lot's of call's and LEAPS). I just hope FDA grants priority on sBLA and we get some movement in stock price…

kingofthehill

10-16-2005, 01:37 PM

I feel confident we will get a priority review,

here is a very thorough report on Tysabri from Goodbodys research dated Oct. 14th 35 pages!!!

http://www.tixx.com/elan/goodoct2005.pdf

kingofthehill

10-17-2005, 09:52 AM

ok nice start to the day $8.45

Elan Corp. (ELN) surged 5.1% in Dublin after it and partner Biogen Idec didn't find any more cases of the fatal PML disease in patients taking its Tysabri drug for Crohn's disease or for rheumatoid arthritis

stocks54

10-17-2005, 03:32 PM

I feel confident we will get a priority review,

here is a very thorough report on Tysabri from Goodbodys research dated Oct. 14th 35 pages!!!

http://www.tixx.com/elan/goodoct2005.pdf

Thanks Kingofthehill.

Best Regards,
Stocks54

spikefader

10-17-2005, 06:27 PM

King, et al.
Posted charts today in my thread if you want to look.

LOL @ NB's picture. She's a beautiful dog. Allow me to introduce her to my bear :D

New-born baby

10-19-2005, 09:12 AM

NEWS FLASH!

NEWS FLASH!

ELN is falling this morning as per the chart! Spike's short is working!

kingofthehill

10-19-2005, 04:35 PM

I really like ELN for the next 10 days...

Priority review comes next week

and drug scripts are written again in December

Websman

10-19-2005, 05:15 PM

NEWS FLASH!

NEWS FLASH!

ELN is falling this morning as per the chart! Spike's short is working!

Spike did an excellent job! It might be a good plan to take profits though, before the FDA brings Tysabri back. :)

Websman

10-19-2005, 09:47 PM

Here's an article from the same idiot who printed a false headline about Tysabri. Now he's printing a positive article???

Study lifts prospects for return of Tysabri

Biogen, Elan say no more cases found of rare brain disease

By Jeffrey Krasner, Globe Staff | October 18, 2005

Biogen Idec Inc. of Cambridge and its partner, Elan Corp. (http://studio.financialcontent.com/Engine?Account=bostonglobe&PageName=QUOTE&Ticker=ELN), yesterday said they have completed a safety review of all the patients who took the multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri and did not find more cases of a rare brain disease that infected three patients.

The news bolstered prospects for Tysabri's return to the market in a limited fashion.

''The overall prognosis has improved for Tysabri," said Ian Sanderson, an analyst with S.G. Cowen Securities in Boston. ''It helps things a little bit."

Biogen Idec and Elan, its Irish partner in the drug, halted sales and dosing of Tysabri in February after one patient died of the disease, called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, and another was suspected of contracting it. Of the three patients confirmed with contracting the disease, two died.

Tysabri was approved last November to treat MS and was on sale for only three months. It was also being tested in patients suffering from rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease, an intestinal ailment. The final part of the review revealed yesterday confirmed there weren't any more cases of PML in the 1,500 patients participating in clinical trials for rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease.

''We're encouraged by the findings of the safety evaluation," said Amy Brockelman, a Biogen Idec spokeswoman. ''There's a significant unmet need in multiple sclerosis, and we hope to bring the product back to patients in need."

The two companies last month submitted a revised marketing plan to the Food and Drug Administration, including changed labeling language. The companies asked for ''accelerated review" of the revised plan.

The FDA has 30 days in which to decide whether it will accelerate the review. If it does, the agency would rule on Tysabri within six months, compared to about a year for standard review.

Sanderson said he believed Tysabri would ultimately generate annual revenue of $400 million to $500 million for the two firms. That is considerably higher than some earlier estimates of how Tysabri might perform if it was again approved for sale, but considerably lower than the billion-dollar blockbuster most anticipated when the drug was introduced.

Elan shares gained 16 cents to close at $8.26, an increase of 2 percent. Biogen Idec gained 61 cents to close at $38.63, an increase of 1.6 percent.

Jeffrey Krasner can be reached at krasner@globe.com.

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2005/10/18/study_lifts_prospects_for_return_of_tysabri/

jiesen

10-21-2005, 12:12 AM

http://www.nationalreview.com/murdock/murdock200510190831.asp

October 19, 2005, 8:31 a.m.
Show Me the Risk!
A drug’s a gamble? Put the decision in the hands of doctors and patients.

According to The Archives of Internal Medicine, pharmaceutical companies market a drug that kills some 7,000 Americans annually. These people don’t die instantly, but instead expire after slowly suffering gastrointestinal bleeding. Oddly enough, TV-news producers are ho-hum about this deadly medicine. The Food and Drug Administration has yet to prohibit it. Personal-injury attorneys aim their crosshairs elsewhere. No one seems much concerned about a lethal substance called aspirin.

That’s right. Aspirin — a drug so trusted that moms give the St. Joseph’s strain to their children — kills more than 580 Americans each month. And nobody cares.

Americans judge aspirin’s risks (widespread deaths) against its benefits (pain relief, improved cardiovascular health). Our verdict: We love it!

Compare this to the often much-lower death tolls associated with newer, more exotic drugs, like Lotronex, Propulsid, Tysabri, and Vioxx. Rather than aspirin-driven complacency, these drugs fuel voluntary product withdrawals, government mandates, screaming headlines, and massive jury awards.

Americans should think differently about drugs, their risks, and their rewards.

First, the 100-percent-perfect drug is as illusory as the perfect, crash-proof car or the perfect, flood-proof house. Patients and doctors must weigh unfortunate imperfections (even potentially fatal ones) against whatever physical and/or mental satisfaction drugs offer.

Second, while some Americans stand and cheer — usually in front of TV cameras — when a drug disappears from pharmacies, others are horrified to see medicines that have eased or eliminated their discomfort suddenly vanish from their lives. Let’s call this man-made disease “stranded-patient syndrome.”

GlaxoSmithKline introduced Lotronex for Irritable Bowel Syndrome in early 2000. After reported complications, including four deaths, plus heightened FDA scrutiny, GSK withdrew Lotronex, although the vast majority of IBS patients enjoyed it.

“I don’t want Big Brother in my medicine cabinet,” Edna Wakeham told the Chicago Daily Herald in May 2001. “I know the risks, and I would take it again, warts and all.”

Those risks were, frankly, infinitesimal. Looking at deaths alone in this exercise, among the 300,000 IBS patients who took Lotronex, four passed away. Rough division reveals that this drug was 99.9867 percent non-lethal. Contrast that to aspirin’s 7,000 deaths among 20 million people who use it daily to prevent strokes and heart attacks. This ratio shows lower non-lethality at 99.965 percent. According to the January 16, 2005, Health Sentinel, common surgical procedures are even riskier. Cardiac catheterization is only 99.8-percent non-lethal, while hip surgery is an even worse gamble at 99.7101-percent non-lethality. Yet these operations are routine.

No one proposes padlocking hospitals, either, despite the massive toll of nosocomial infections, or those acquired inside medical centers. According to Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Jeremiah Norris, such infections contribute to 88,000 deaths annually at a cost of $4.5 billion. Across some 20 million hospital patients each year, this yields an even more frightening 99.56 percent non-lethality rate.

Not unlike the Lotronex case, just three months after the FDA approved Tysabri, Biogen-Idec and Elan Pharmaceuticals withdrew their Multiple Sclerosis drug last February 28. Among Tysabri’s 8,000 users, three developed a rare neurological ailment called PML. Although two died, Tysabri still was 99.975-percent non-lethal; general anesthesia is less safe at 99.9729 percent non-lethal. Nonetheless, America’s 400,000 MS patients have lost this once-effective treatment. Of six FDA-approved MS drugs, five remain.

Janssen Pharmaceutical’s Propulsid treated heartburn and acid-reflux disease until its removal in 2000. This followed an FDA report of 80 deaths since Propulsid’s 1993 launch. Against 30 million prescriptions, this suggests 99.9997-percent non-lethality — breathtakingly near 100 percent.

“People who need Propulsid have to cut through more red tape than a drug company filing a patent for a new pill,” Senator Charles Schumer (D., New York) complained in November 2000. “These patients have no other options left and have painful disorders that demand treatment right away. They don’t have the luxury of waiting to get their hands on this medicine.”

In October 1998, Wyeth-Lederle launched RotaShield, a vaccine to prevent rotavirus diarrhea, an ailment responsible for 50,000 to 60,000 hospital admissions and between 20 and 40 deaths in America alone. However, Wyeth withdrew the drug from the U.S. market in October 1999 after the FDA associated it with sometimes-fatal bowel obstructions in one child among every 40,000 vaccinated. Wyeth soon pulled RotaShield from clinics and hospitals worldwide.

Rotavirus kills (http://www.vaccinealliance.org/Resources_Documents/Immunization_Focus/Download/rotavirus_2_txt.php) 1,622 children in the third world daily, according to the National Institute of Health. Despite RotaShield’s non-complication rate of 99.9975 percent, the bodies of children who suffered death by diarrhea kept piling up at a rate of 592,000 annually. In India, the retrovirus death rate stood at one child per 200, a non-lethality rate of 99.5 percent, according to the May 2000 issue of Immunization Focus. Meanwhile, experts fretted about the far-lower risk of vaccine-related intestinal blockage rather than the clear-and-present danger of rotavirus itself.

After foreign pediatricians and public-health administrators determined (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=16088803&dopt=Citation) that RotaShield’s benefits outweighed its costs, they persuaded the NIH to approve the drug once again in May 2004 to fight this disease in overseas nations that lack such things as soap and water, flush toilets, and readily available doctors. As one industry executive grimly observes: “Almost 3 million children under the age of 5 years died between the time RotaShield was removed from the market and the grant of a new license.”

What about Vioxx, the drug that launched 5,000 lawsuits? This shelved pain reliever has sandbagged Merck in litigation, soaked it in bad ink, and strapped cinderblocks to its stock price. Critics claim that 27,785 Vioxx users have died in cardiovascular episodes since its 1999 debut.

“Any estimates of harm from Vioxx are speculation,” a Merck spokesperson responds. “There are many risks for heart attack and stroke, including high blood pressure, smoking, high cholesterol, and genetics just to name a few. Thus, determination of whether Vioxx was responsible for any patient’s heart attack or stroke can only be made on a case-by-case basis.”

Still, across 9.28 million prescriptions, “big, bad Vioxx” is 99.7 percent non-lethal, even accepting these disputed fatalities. Those who long for Vioxx like those odds.

“When I was diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis in 1998, my life changed dramatically,” Dimitra Poulos told an FDA panel on February 17. “Socially, I could no longer sit in a movie theater or take a walk. Car trips to visit out-of-town family members were out of the question.” She continued: “But that was before Vioxx. I have taken Vioxx for over five years with absolutely no side effects. Vioxx gave me my life back…I have 40 Vioxx left. I have 40 days before my life and my abilities will be severely altered. I will assume all responsibility and sign any waiver. Please give me that option.”

“Pain matters,” explained Atlanta rheumatologist W. Hayes Wilson. “It may not kill you, but you may wish that you were dead.” He added: “We should try to figure out what is unique about the 1 to 2 percent of patients with very serious side effects rather than deprive the 98 to 99 percent of patients with significant relief from their arthritis pain who have not experienced a serious side effect.”

Let’s ditch the government decrees and corporate recalls. Drug makers should market whatever they wish, provided they frequently disclose the numbers of deaths and serious side effects associated with their products along with the numbers of people taking them. Patients and doctors should compare risks and rewards and consider individual circumstances instead of categorical edicts. Forbidding and mothballing drugs may protect those jeopardized by certain compounds, but doing so often amplifies the agony of others for whom the disease remains worse than the cure.

— Deroy Murdock is a New York-based columnist with the Scripps Howard News Service and a senior fellow with the Atlas Economic Research Foundation (http://www.atlasusa.org/) in Arlington, Va.

kingofthehill

10-21-2005, 04:05 PM

hang in there guys we will get paid nicely ...........

DJ FOCUS: Elan Investors Hoping For FDA Priority Review

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dow Jones Real-Time News for InvestorsSM
12:29 p.m. 10/21/2005

By Quentin Fottrell

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

DUBLIN (Dow Jones)--Elan Corp. PLC (ELN) is hoping a U.S. Federal Drug Administration decision due next week at the earliest will give priority review for its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, observers said Friday.

Elan and joint partner Biogen Idec PLC (BIIB) last month requested priority review status for Tysabri, which could result in action by the FDA 6 months from last month's submission date, rather than 10 months.

This could see Tysabri back on the market by March, rather than mid-summer 2006, say analysts, who expect the FDA to make a response by Wednesday though the FDA could also take another 30 days, an Elan spokeswoman said.

NCB Stockbrokers analyst Orla Hartford, who has a buy on Elan, said she's "hopeful" that the FDA will grant a priority review aimed at fast-tracking Tysabri's return to market "due to the unmet medical need in MS."

Elan and Biogen Idec suspended Tysabri in the U.S. Feb. 28 after two patients contacted the rare neurological disease PML. A third case was confirmed later. All affected patients were on combination therapy.

Before Elan's third-quarter results next Thursday, NCB's Hartford said focus will remain firmly on Elan's approximate $870 million net debt and, crucially, on priority status for Tysabri by the FDA.

In August, Elan said a safety study found no new PML cases in MS Tysabri patients and, this week, confirmed no new cases in those with Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis, completing its safety review of 3,000 patients.

Still, while most analysts who hold the stock are betting on Tysabri returning to market, some fund managers are still skeptical, saying Tysabri needs to be the much-hoped for blockbuster drug.

Anne Marieke Ezendam, who runs the global healthcare fund at Threadneedle Investments in London, said she's "convinced" Tysabri will come back to market, "but to a smaller market and not before summer of 2006."

"Elan's underlying cash burn on sales force and research is very high," she said. "Tysabri needs around $550 million per year in sales to offset Elan's current spending. I'm not sure if the market will support that."

Elan has also submitted Tysabri's two-year Phase III data, safety review data and its proposals for labelling/monitoring of Tysabri patients to the European Medicines Agency. No timeline has yet been given.

At 1626 GMT, Elan's shares were down 27 cents, or 3.8%, at EUR6.73 on the Irish Stock Exchange. The ISEQ Overall Index was down 1.2%. The shares have fallen from EUR20.30 after Tysabri was suspended in February.

After a volatile few years, the company seems to be continuing a focus on reducing costs and simplifying its business model and balance sheet, while also focusing on its key drugs, Tyasbri and pain drug Prialt, analysts say.

The safety review comes after a long and arduous recovery, which began with a change of senior management in 2002, when Elan's late former CEO and Chairman Donal Geaney resigned amid accounting troubles and a falling share price.

Company Web site: http://www.elan.com

-By Quentin Fottrell, Dow Jones Newswires; +353 1 676 2189; quentin.fottrell@dowjones.com

kingofthehill

11-02-2005, 08:00 AM

my comments first ...yes this is getting old ... i owned this stock from $4.00 to $30.00 bought alot more at $3.00 t0 5.00 ..and even some in the 8.00 range..but i am willing to wait it out till the US based brokers see the light ...KING

McLaughlin ups stake in Elan
Wednesday November 2nd 2005

ELAN chairman Kyran McLaughlin, left, has spent $401,000 (€337,000) to raise his stake in Elan, according to a Stock Exchange announcement.

The announcement says that Mr McLaughlin purchased an additional 50,000 shares at a price of $8.02 each.

Elan, which has a strong following in the US, has its shares traded in both dollars and euro.

The purchase brings Mr McLaughlin's Elan stake to 150,000 shares, representing an effective 0.35pc stake.

This year Elan's share price has recovered from a low point of €2.30 after earlier falling from a high of €22.40.

In Dublin yesterday the stock was up by over 1pc or 8c, closing at €6.85.

Websman

11-02-2005, 05:40 PM

Hmmm...insiders are buying? Now, I wonder why they would be doing that???

Websman

11-02-2005, 05:47 PM

Hahaha! Here's a good story from the Wall Street Journal.

MS Drug Shows Effectiveness
In Treating Crohn's Disease

Associated Press
November 2, 2005 5:15 p.m.

NEW YORK -- A multiple sclerosis drug that was pulled from the market for safety reasons has shown some effectiveness against the painful bowel disorder Crohn's disease, researchers say.

Tysabri didn't work very well against Crohn's in a short-term study but brought some relief to patients who continued receiving the drug for a year.

The makers of Tysabri halted sales of the drug in February, months after it was approved for MS, because of fears it may be linked to a rare brain disease. Three patients getting Tysabri got the disease and two died.

Elan Corp. and Biogen Idec Inc. recently said a safety review found no new confirmed cases of the brain disease in patients treated with Tysabri. They are seeking government approval to resume selling the drug, also called natalizumab.

An estimated 500,000 Americans are afflicted with Crohn's disease. The cause is unknown and there is no cure. Symptoms include abdominal pain, persistent diarrhea and fever. Drugs to control inflammation and suppress the immune system can bring some relief. Tysabri attaches to the immune cells and prevents them from reaching areas of inflammation.

In Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine, researchers reported the results of two company-funded international studies of Tysabri for Crohn's.

In the first test, 905 patients got three infusions of Tysabri or a placebo infusion over eight weeks. The two groups had similar rates of response and remission. In the second study, 339 patients from the first test who had improved with Tysabri were given either the drug or a placebo every four weeks for a year. Those who got the Tysabri had higher rates of sustained response (61% vs. 28%) and remission (44% vs. 26%).

Elan's Lars Ekman said the drug has now been tested in 1,500 Crohn's patients, including those in another yet-unreleased positive trial. "We remain very confident that Tysabri will be made available over time as a treatment alternative in Crohn's," said Dr. Ekman.

In an accompanying editorial, Daniel Podolsky of Massachusetts General Hospital said not enough is known yet about Tysabri's effectiveness against Crohn's to determine whether the drug is worth the risks.

Ellen J. Scherl of Weill Medical College of Cornell University, who had patients in the first study, said the research identified some types of patients who may benefit most from Tysabri. "It would be a loss for us not to have this as an option for patients," she said.

Copyright © 2005 Associated Press

spikefader

11-02-2005, 08:01 PM

Hmmm...insiders are buying? Now, I wonder why they would be doing that???Cuz they can't read a chart?? ~jk~

Hey, I'm sorry ELN believers. But I'm going to have a rave. Apologies in advance. It's all in good nature. I WANT you all to do well. And in that light, here are my thoughts. The chart I'll leave to the end. But on the fundy side - yes, you read it right - I was listening to an interview recently; a researcher interviewing an MS patient. Don't ask me for a reference; you'll have to take my word for it. Anyway, this person had terrible symptoms. Terrible. I feel for MS sufferers. It's really a crying shame. Anyway, my pity aside, this person was tough! They have endured everything from paralysis to blindness. Can you imagine.... I can't. Praise da Lord for my good health, and you should too if you have it. But anyway, I'm digressing. Back to my point. This vicitm, a reasonable person, with common-sense, and a desire to not become a quadraplegic, a wish toavoid those painful weekly treatment needle shots with products like Avonex or Betaseron. This person when they heard about Tysabri got excited about the once-a-month injections. But you know what?!? ........... This person still conveyed hesitancy and fear of Tysabri. Those less-common side effects really do scare potential users of Tysabri. Sure, it's showing so much more promise than Avonex or Betaseron, but those potential side-effects are real, and a lot more disturbing than Avonex. They are more Frightening! This person with serious MS symptoms still only gave a 50:50 chance that they would use Tysabri. So if serious MS victims are scared of this drug despite the low incidence of these bad side effects, how is ELN going to get that enormous amount of sales it needs for this to work out positive for shareholders? Right now, dudes, it's a big gray area, and does NOT set up bullishly in my view. Show me the sales. Show me the proof. Give me a chart that shows people buying gap ups, not selling them, and I'll be a believer.

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade or optimism, but come on, let's get real. WHEN is it going to prove itself? SEC fast track isn't going to change the fundies as I see them right now.

The chart:
Still the same old bearishness. There are better longs out there dudes. Why pin optimism on hope? Why not find winners like the Appreciable AAPL or the Gigantic GOOG?? Or if you like NC Health sector, the Humongous HSKA.

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/2599/elnnov26gd.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

WHEN is ELN going to deliver?!!
http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/2091/elnhaha9lm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Rant over, apologies extended.

Gatorman

11-02-2005, 08:16 PM

spikefader

11-02-2005, 09:04 PM

Spike:
Trying to keep with my selling goals, I recently sold AAPL for a 15% gain. Was in at 50.15 and out at 57.67. This might have been a bit premature. What are your thoughts about a good re-entry level?AAPL in HOLD/stalk mode now.
http://img74.imageshack.us/img74/7423/aaplreenter9sf.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Websman

11-03-2005, 05:40 PM

Cuz they can't read a chart?? ~jk~

Hey, I'm sorry ELN believers....Blah, Blah, Blah...

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade or optimism, but come on, let's get real. WHEN is it going to prove itself? SEC fast track isn't going to change the fundies as I see them right now....Blah, Blah, Blah...

The chart:
Still the same old bearishness.
Rant over, apologies extended.

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/3220/grinch29zr.jpg (http://imageshack.us/)

You're a mean one Mr Grinch...

(just joking, of course) :)

kingofthehill

11-07-2005, 08:55 PM

Elans 900lb gorilla of a partner will not hype, or talk about this wonder drug until the FDA green lights it back to market, why because Biogen needs to keep telling the story that thier worthless product AVONEX is the greatest thing for MS ... they have BILLIONS of reason to hide the truth till its reapproved, Biogen owns the license in the USA for Tysabri.

I am willing to wait

kingofthehill

11-11-2005, 01:32 PM

nice day above average volume and stock is trading at 9.23

Websman

11-11-2005, 05:34 PM

Spike??? Spike???

Where are you Spike??? Are you ready to put your bull hat on yet?

Let's hope ELN holds these gains next week.

skiracer

11-11-2005, 06:18 PM

Webs,
Take those gains anyway you can get them Webs. You own it from 6.89 and you've got the gains to prove it. Anyone that's not it in can only procrastinate about what they think it will do. Personally I don't believe in it but I don't own it either and wish I was in from where you are. There was a positive article on the drug this morning that came across the news wires about the FDA approving it later next year and again the bounce came off the news rather than true strength. But the proof remains in the fact that the stocks price is up over 9 now and you own it. So thumbs up to you for having the fortitude to hold on to your beliefs. Do you think it will retrace back under 9 to the mid or lower 8 range because if you do it might not be a bad idea to take some profit now because today was just momo players taking advantage of the news break and you can bet that they will be taking their profits next week. Good luck with it.

http://img326.imageshack.us/img326/4181/eln5ju.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

11-11-2005, 07:14 PM

Spike??? Spike???
Where are you Spike??? Are you ready to put your bull hat on yet?
Let's hope ELN holds these gains next week.Bull hat????!!!! Are you kidding me?! I'm stalking a short next week! haha

Keep on hoping dude. The chart doesn't matter.... haha

Seriously though, for me to get bullish on it, it has to get into the gap on closing basis and act bullish for a while and do impressive stuff.

It's been seriously beaten down, and at risk of falling from resistance. Take a look at the 10 yr monthly chart for it. It's a big bear flag. Why would anyone buy this at gap resistance now, major channel short, price resistances from 1995 with volume on the monthly that has been falling, with very poor money flow and price action the last few months. It's just not inspiring. I think the chart whispers that it's in jeopardy of going to zero. Tell me this: what will happen to the price if Tysabri gets rejected? How bad does ELN rely on it? What's the worst fundamental news that could come out? What if there's a scandal? I think longs are a gamble. Now bulls, SHOW me some spectacular stuff. Change my view. Until then I'll be Devil's Advocate for you believers. And I strongly suggest that if you're in big with this one, that you hedge in some way...especially at resistances like this.

Webs; do you have a stop on your ELN? Do you have a target? Didn't you say the other day you were closing yours soon? If you were thinking about it, this is the place to do it. You can always reenter once it PROVES it's worth it.

And of the other tickers I mentioned the other day, GOOG, AAPL, HSKA, check these out relative to ELN. They are outperforming stocks that you should believe in. Don't hope on the unknown dangerous ones, find the real gems. I don't think ELN is a gem. Forgive me :D

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=ELN&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=AAPL,GOOG,HSKA&a=v&p=s
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=ELN&t=6m&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=AAPL,GOOG,HSKA&a=v&p=s

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=ELN&t=1y&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=AAPL,GOOG,HSKA&a=v&p=s

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=ELN&t=5y&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=AAPL,GOOG,HSKA&a=v&p=s

Websman

11-11-2005, 10:03 PM

Ahhh, there you are Spike. I was hoping you'd bring me back down to earth. :) lol

kingofthehill

11-14-2005, 02:11 PM

ahemmm 9.86

spikefader

11-14-2005, 02:11 PM

Ahhh, there you are Spike. I was hoping you'd bring me back down to earth. :) lolWell how's this for down-to-earth: My short setup failed for -1% today and I'm a bull if it closes over 10.00. It's in the progress of doing exactly what it needed to do; act bullishly! May it fill the gap and make yall a kazillion! I'm stalkin it for a long now.

Websman

11-14-2005, 04:16 PM

I'm glad I held! :)

skiracer

11-14-2005, 05:09 PM

Good for you Webs, every Vulcan deserves a bone now an then.

kingofthehill

11-14-2005, 05:41 PM

WE’VE ONLY JUST BEGUN

sound catchy maybe i shoud write a song

kingofthehill

11-15-2005, 10:47 AM

nice run , what do you see spike

Websman

11-16-2005, 07:16 PM

So what's next for ELN? Do we keep running up or do we correct?

My initial Vulcan instinct tells me to look for a correction. I'll have to check the charts to confirm my suspicions.

kingofthehill

11-17-2005, 04:53 PM

yeahhhhhhhhhhhhh babbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Biogen Idec and Elan Announce FDA Acceptance of Supplemental Biologics License Application and Priority Review Designation for TYSABRI(R) in Multiple Sclerosis
Thursday November 17, 4:44 pm ET

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. and DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 17, 2005--Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB - News) and Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN - News) announced today that the supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) for TYSABRI® (natalizumab) for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been accepted and designated for Priority Review by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
The FDA grants Priority Review status to products that are considered to be potentially significant therapeutic advancements over existing therapies that address an unmet medical need. Based on the FDA's designation of Priority Review for TYSABRI in MS, the companies anticipate action by the Agency approximately six months from the submission date, rather than 10 months for a standard review. On September 26, 2005, the companies announced they had submitted the sBLA for the market re-entry of TYSABRI for MS and requested Priority Review.

The sBLA for TYSABRI in MS includes:

final two-year data from the Phase III AFFIRM monotherapy trial and SENTINEL add-on trial with AVONEX® (Interferon beta-1a) in MS;
integrated safety assessment of patients treated with TYSABRI in clinical trials; and
revised label and risk management plan.
"We are pleased that TYSABRI has received Priority Review designation, which we believe, reflects the unmet need in MS," said Burt Adelman, MD, executive vice president, Development, Biogen Idec. "We look forward to working with the FDA throughout the review process and are hopeful that we will be able to bring TYSABRI back to people living with MS."

"We believe that the acceptance of the sBLA for Priority Review is another step in our ongoing commitment to provide TYSABRI as a treatment option for MS patients in need," said Lars Ekman, MD, executive vice president and president, Research & Development, Elan. "We will continue to work closely with the FDA as they review the filing so that TYSABRI can be made available with an appropriate benefit-risk profile."

Websman

11-17-2005, 04:55 PM

Looks like tomorrow should be quite profitable, huh King? :)

Websman

11-17-2005, 04:56 PM

Watch the AH action!

BWAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

YEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

jiesen

11-17-2005, 05:10 PM

This is indeed great news for ELN, though I don't the AH action really reflecting it. Of course, this news is to be expected, just as Tysabri is expected to be back on the market, given that ELN is trading at more than $5. This news definitely increases my interest in the stock, though, and if it's still trading at $10 after the initial euphoria dies down, I may even pick up some shares again. When Tysabri is back on the market, $30 is practically a given.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051117/20051117005890.html?.v=1

Biogen Idec and Elan Announce FDA Acceptance of Supplemental Biologics License Application and Priority Review Designation for TYSABRI(R) in Multiple Sclerosis
Thursday November 17, 4:44 pm ET

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. and DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 17, 2005--Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=biib&d=t) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=biib)) and Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=eln&d=t) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=eln)) announced today that the supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) for TYSABRI® (natalizumab) for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been accepted and designated for Priority Review by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

The FDA grants Priority Review status to products that are considered to be potentially significant therapeutic advancements over existing therapies that address an unmet medical need. Based on the FDA's designation of Priority Review for TYSABRI in MS, the companies anticipate action by the Agency approximately six months from the submission date, rather than 10 months for a standard review. On September 26, 2005, the companies announced they had submitted the sBLA for the market re-entry of TYSABRI for MS and requested Priority Review.

The sBLA for TYSABRI in MS includes:

final two-year data from the Phase III AFFIRM monotherapy trial and SENTINEL add-on trial with AVONEX® (Interferon beta-1a) in MS;
integrated safety assessment of patients treated with TYSABRI in clinical trials; and
revised label and risk management plan.

"We are pleased that TYSABRI has received Priority Review designation, which we believe, reflects the unmet need in MS," said Burt Adelman, MD, executive vice president, Development, Biogen Idec. "We look forward to working with the FDA throughout the review process and are hopeful that we will be able to bring TYSABRI back to people living with MS."

"We believe that the acceptance of the sBLA for Priority Review is another step in our ongoing commitment to provide TYSABRI as a treatment option for MS patients in need," said Lars Ekman, MD, executive vice president and president, Research & Development, Elan. "We will continue to work closely with the FDA as they review the filing so that TYSABRI can be made available with an appropriate benefit-risk profile." On February 28, 2005, Biogen Idec and Elan announced that they voluntarily suspended TYSABRI from the U.S. market and all ongoing clinical trials based on reports of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare and potentially fatal, demyelinating disease of the central nervous system. Biogen Idec and Elan recently completed a comprehensive safety evaluation of more than 3,000 TYSABRI patients in collaboration with leading experts in PML and neurology. The results of the safety evaluation yielded no new confirmed cases of PML beyond the three previously reported.

spikefader

11-18-2005, 01:52 AM

Congrats on the good news dudes! I agree with jiesen though....the AH action was rather tame imo.

But I'm a bull! On the daily you've got a bull flag and probably a gap up tomorrow. Would be nice to see a huge volume day that will become a runaway for yall. I'd be looking for a nice bullish run to 11.50 that will make a 5th on the daily, then the abc and the c to maybe test the gap. 16.50 is very very likely after that. The really clever and patient people will buy the c long in a couple weeks. Hopefully that will coincide with a channel long and intraday pattern so I can hop on.

Where are my shades!

kingofthehill

11-18-2005, 07:29 AM

MORGAN STANLEY EQUITY RESEARCH

ELAN CORP. (ELN.N): TYSABRI GETS PRIORITY REVIEW - 17 Nov 2005 (12 pgs/ 68 kb)

Marc Goodman +1 (1)212 761 8403 Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
Louise Chen +1 (1)212 761 0039 Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
Michael Rockefeller +1 (1)212 761 6184 Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated

Quick Comment: ELN and BIIB announced after the market closed that the FDA has granted priority review status to the Tysabri sBLA for Multiple Sclerosis.

Our Takeaway: This is obviously positive news for ELN (and BIIB), and we believe is the main reason for the recent strength in the name. With the priority review, the two companies will remain on track to launch the drug by mid 2006 in the US, as a decision by the FDA is now expected in late March 2006.

The criterion for a priority review designation is unmet medical needs (e.g., underserved refractory MS patients). Thus we do not think that Tysabri’s priority review status means greater probability of an approval. With that said, we continue to believe that the drug has a very good chance of returning to the market. In addition, the designation might signal a certain favorable attitude towards the drug within the agency. Thus some may believe that the final Tysabri label might not be as bad as previously feared. However, we still believe the label will be restrictive.

With the stock trading above $10, we believe that the Tysabri peak sales embedded at this level are $650-700MM. If investors want to own the name now, they need to have conviction that Tysabri can be a $750MM+ drug, in our view. We continue to believe that Tysabri will not likely achieve peak sales significantly above $500MM. We won’t know until next summer.

Industry View: We maintain our In-Line view of the Specialty Pharma Industry.

kingofthehill

11-18-2005, 07:36 AM

Spike give me a new chart to read..Thanks

kingofthehill

11-21-2005, 08:10 PM

Sent: Friday, October 21, 2005 2:20 PM
To: Matthew Strobeck; Will Muggia
Subject: Elan/Biogen Observation

Dear Investors:

Though we are not as exposed to Elan/Biogen as we were in the past, we feel compelled to provide a quick update on Biogen Idec and Elan given two articles published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine. In July, three different case study articles were published in the New England Journal of Medicine on the patients (2- Multiple Sclerosis and 1- Crohn's) presumed to have succumbed to Tysabri induced Progressive Multifocal Leukoenchephalopathy (PML). Please recall that one of the Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients (from Colorado) reportedly died from the PML infection. In response to these articles, four neurologists drafted letters to the authors and the resulting correspondence was published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Interestingly, all four neurologists noted that the Multiple Sclerosis patient who died from PML, likely did not have Multiple Sclerosis. These neurologists state that after reviewing the Colorado patients history, medical records etc.. that this patient did not have MS because: 1) no oligoclonal bands were detected in two separate examinations of the cerebrospinal fluid, 2) several Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans obtained over many years never showed enhancing lesions and 3) neuropathology unequivocally proves that no MS lesions were ever detected (the presence of these lesions are the key hallmark of the disease). Based on this, the neurologists believe that this patient from Colorado may have had a subclinical nonfatal case of PML, which was misdiagnosed as MS. Strikingly, one of the original authors of the New England Journal of Medicine case study articles concurs with the potential misdiagnosis. Thus, this patient, likely should have never been enrolled in the MS study evaluating the use of Tysabri along with Avonex. These findings also bring into question the diagnosis/underlying condition of the other patients presumed to have developed PML due to treatment with Tysabri.

The suspension of Tysabri on February 28 was a prudent measure by both Biogen Idec and Elan to fully assess the situation and define the risk of PML to MS patients. However, these recent findings show the inherent variability/occasional errors that occur in the diagnosis and treatment of patients. If Biogen Idec and Elan can prove that this patient was misdiagnosed (which may be highly unlikely at this point) it could significantly change the risk profile of Tysabri. In the analysis we forwarded in early March, we cited the potential for misdiagnoses based on the strong safety data seen at two years in the monotherapy study and the known MS-like effects of PML in the brain.

It is astonishing how the public markets can jump to conclusions and formulate opinions, which at times are just not based on hard evidence. It does not matter now since the damage has been done, but we remain hopeful that Tysabri becomes available to the patients who desperately need it and that over time these issues around PML are resolved. We fully understand that being intellectually right; yet losing money is a bad outcome. However, our investment process has not and will not change.

Thanks again for your support.

Best,

Will Muggia and Matt Strobeck

William A. Muggia
President & Chief Investment Officer
Westfield Capital Management Company, LLC
One Financial Center, 24thFloor
Boston, MA 02111"

*************HUGE NEWS ******** these guys owned 42 million shares of elan before the stock fell>>>>>>>>>>

kingofthehill

11-22-2005, 06:32 AM

if Elan get this ALZ drug to market like i expect, we are talking to the moon stock price.........

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051121/ap_on_he_me/fighting_dementia

Websman

11-30-2005, 07:23 PM

King, you're the expert on drug companies around here... Tell me what you think about these guys. They supposedly have a new drug called Tripeptofen that they claim could be huge.

I'm skeptical, but intrigued at the same time. Here's a link to their website...

http://www.mpl-usa.com/opportunity.shtml

kingofthehill

11-30-2005, 11:29 PM

I have no idea but i will ask someone for you

on our favorite subject .........

BIIB has more Tysabri inventory than prior to original launch.

BIIB has greater production capacity than prior to original launch.

Tysabri has a greater documented efficacy ratio than prior to original launch.

Tysabri is much more well known than prior to original launch.

ELN has a much cleaner balance sheet than prior to original launch.

There are more infusion centers online than prior to original launch.

There is more insurance coverage available than prior to original launch.

We were trading at $27+ prior to original launch.

This is so simple.

swiped fromyahoo message board

kingofthehill

12-01-2005, 08:44 AM

I am on the record here .. I AM POUNDING THE TABLE FOR THOSE THAT FOLLOW ELAN TO BUY NOW THE NEXT 2-8 WEEKS WILL SEE US FLY ....

OK MERRY CHRISTMAS

TYSABRI IS GOING TO BE HUGE ....

READ WHAT THE CFO OF BIOGEN SAID YESTERDAY

Peter Kellogg, Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

"Well it's great to be here. I can tell you it's been a very interesting year for Biogen IDEC. This slide
is sort of interesting because at this time last year, we were doubling our sales force in neurology.
We had just finished communicating the one-year's data to the public in TYSABRI and we just
received TYSABRI approval. So it's been quite a year, as you can imagine. That followed with the
launch of TYSABRI and it was really, as you may recall, quite a sensational launch. We had, after
less than 3 months, 5,000 patients on drugs, 15,000 or more – actually more than that in the queue
and that's in the context of the U.S. market where there's about 200,000 patients on drugs. So less
than 3 months, already had a 10% market share of the very interesting MS market. So it was quite
a sensation. But unfortunately, a couple of new data points came up, a couple of events came up
in the MS community where we had to suspend the drug because these were safety issues that
came up that we had not seen in the clinical trials. And so we knew we had to pull the drug back,
do the research on what had happened to all the trial patients and get physicians to prepare a
proper risk-benefit profile for the drug."

Websman

12-01-2005, 04:06 PM

BUY!!! BUY!!! BUY!!!

spikefader

12-01-2005, 04:56 PM

http://bestsmileys.com/silly/1.gif

I think I'll wait for a support play, but thanks anyway.
http://img357.imageshack.us/img357/3764/elndec10ql.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

kingofthehill

12-01-2005, 05:03 PM

http://www.wsw.com/webcast/lz2/biib2/

Kellog says:
“Regarding a panel meeting for the FDA, we’re just waiting to hear if there will be one, we haven't requested, its really up to the FDA, however its been our expectation that there will be one. If you consider the amount of interest that there has been in Tysabri, and the amount of safety data that’s been accumulated and what the label should read and what kind of risk-mapping should be applied”

* Interesting – in response to a question about dialogue with the FDA re the sBLA the response was “there is always dialogue, so we are always talking from one topic to the next…some of the dialogue has been to redosing in the clinical setting, in the short term”…
Yet later when asked about dialogue re the Rituxan sBLA the respose was there was "no dialogue at all".!!
*Hmmmmmm

The question is how much capacity we have in RTP and how much inventory. In terms of capacity (over to Oscar?) - capacity is at 70,000 patients but with minor tweaking of the process that number is at about 100,000, and this is just the current process as it stands, … we have been working on a higher titre process and increasing that as multiples of about three at this point.. So you can imagine that’s gonna work in our favour but that’s gonna take some time before we actually get to that process.
In terms of the level of inventory that we have for Tysabri currently right now, we estimate that we currently have about 150,000 doses that are available should the product come back to market…(back to Peter) and we begin further production next year.

Later, in discussion about market research about Ty in the MS market, … “everybody including ourselves were a little bit stunned about the level of interest that came in….”

An interesting comment – in response to a question about the future risk of PML, what is the anticipated response of the companies, the agency? Kellog states “that is probably the heart of a lot of the discussion that is going on right now, …..blah, blah, blah, …what you do when it does resurface and how you handle it….the FDA is quite experienced with that (ie risk/benefit)”

The other guy then talks about the risk management/ label issue and someone in the audience says about “a plan, intervention, an 800 number..” and Kellog states (clearly) “that’s the kind of thing that’s being discussed right now”

So, what did I get from that?

Lots, including they can do 100,000 patients at the current plant and are gearing up for 3x that in the future. By the way, that’s PATIENTS, not doses!
So yesterday Biogen told the world that they are investing and planning for 300k patients!!! At present prices that’s 300k x 23k = $6.9b

(and some ANALysts are still wondering IF Tysabri is coming back!!)

And theyre working on the 800 number.

Could I suggest 1-800-DONT-DO-COMBO

(lots of egg on face in W/S very soon! WAKE UP!!)

Websman

12-01-2005, 06:32 PM

http://www.wsw.com/webcast/lz2/biib2/

(and some ANALysts are still wondering IF Tysabri is coming back!!)

And theyre working on the 800 number.

Could I suggest 1-800-DONT-DO-COMBO

(lots of egg on face in W/S very soon! WAKE UP!!)

Revenge will be mine sayeth the Vulcan... It's going to be a fun ride! Hahaha!

kingofthehill

12-05-2005, 06:14 PM

King says things are cooking real well ...great news could be a mere few days away

Websman

12-05-2005, 06:54 PM

King says things are cooking real well ...great news could be a mere few days away

Something seems to be up. Up .65 today.

spikefader

12-05-2005, 11:59 PM

Great!

Now ELN is at triple top with channel short today. Lord, please give these guys a breakout impulse! :D

kingofthehill

12-06-2005, 01:04 PM

Journal: Monday, December 05, 2005
• Buy 400 shares of Elan (ELN, news, msgs) at market.

All-Star Team Lab Performance
Round 13 $106,353.26

Lab Summary Page

Portfolio

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Track Ken's investments on All-Star Team's portfolio page.

Journal Entries

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Follow every buy and sell with All-Star Team's Transactions page.

Bullish on Elan after FDA action
Elan (ELN, news, msgs) has benefited from some good news. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Tysabri priority review status, which means the FDA will complete its review in six months instead of 10 months. The four extra months of sales will have a big positive impact on their 2006 revenues, but the really good news is that by granting a priority review the FDA has acknowledged that Tysabri addresses a big unmet medical need. In other words, there are lots of Multiple Sclerosis patients for whom all other drugs have failed, and who may benefit from Tysabri. I think this means that the chances of Tysabri returning to market next year are high.

At the start of this Strategy Lab round, the FDA had not yet accepted Elan's data, but after reviewing the clinical trial data I felt confident enough to initiate Elan as a small position. With the recent news, my confidence has grown, and I am increasing my position in Elan.

Not missing a second chance
I have found that the most profitable investment decisions I've ever made are not the first buy decisions, but the follow-on buys. From watching thousands of investors trade at Marketocracy, I've learned that many people are not comfortable adding to a winning position because they don't want to pay a higher price for the second block of stock.

I think that's a big mistake. When the market starts to tell me I'm right about a stock, I think it’s smart to add to that position. But I also don't want my portfolio to become overly dependent on a single stock. Adding 400 shares of Elan will make the position about 10% of the portfolio, which reflects my confidence in the stock.

kingofthehill

12-06-2005, 09:05 PM

The Times December 07, 2005

Elan keeps chief on board with improved contract
By Richard Irving

THE board of Elan, the Irish drugs maker, is to approve a new open-ended contract today for Kelly Martin, the chief executive.

The new agreement will tie the former investment banker to the company ahead of the expected relaunch of Tysabri, its multiple sclerosis treatment, next April. It will replace a three-year fixed contract that expires at the end of the month.

According to the latest report and accounts, Mr Martin earned just over $834,000 (£478,000) in salary last year. He also received 200,000 stock options with a weighted strike price of $7.47 in lieu of an annual cash bonus, which he waived.

Under the new deal, Mr Martin’s basic pay and benefits package is understood to be broadly in line with current levels. However, the new contract will include more performance-related share options, reflecting the board’s determination to ensure that Mr Martin oversees the relaunch of the firm’s most promising drug.

The company pulled Tysabri from pharmacy shelves in late February amid fears that the drug might be linked to progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare and often fatal brain disease.

Elan has since reviewed the case studies of three patients who appeared to contract PML while taking Tysabri, as well as additional data on more than 3,500 patients who had participated in trials of the treatment.

The information, which has since been lodged with the US drug regulator, appears to strengthen claims by the company that Tysabri is the most effective treatment available for multiple sclerosis.

Scientists have collated clinical trials over two years showing that 67 per cent of patients taking Tysabri experienced a reduction in debilitating relapses. The results are slightly better than Elan’s initial tests, which covered one year and considerably better than some analysts had hoped for.

The US watchdog has vowed to give Tysabri a priority review and a decision on its future is due next March.

It is expected that, because the latest data is better than that supporting Tysabri’s initial filing for approval, regulators will be minded to approve the medicine.

Current talks between regulators and Elan are understood to be focusing on what the company must do to ensure that doctors prescribing the treatment recognise immediately any symptoms that might suggest the early onset of PML.

Kelly Martin said yesterday that it was inconceivable that the drug would not be reapproved. He expected more than 25,000 patients who had pre-registered their intention to switch to Tysabri at the time of its launch in November 2004 to make the switch immediately the drug becomes available, despite the bad publicity.

The company expects to break even on Tysabri, which will sell for $23,000 per person per year, once it has signed up 20,000 patients.

Mr Martin added that a decision from European regulators was expected next June or July.

Copyright 2005 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions . Please read our Privacy Policy . To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from The Times, visit the Syndication website .

kingofthehill

12-07-2005, 09:00 AM

http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2005/mft05120617.htm

Investors in Irish biotech Elan (NYSE: ELN - News) are probably hoping that the second time's the charm. After some extensive work, the company and its partner Biogen Idec (Nasdaq: BIIB - News) have resubmitted their troubled multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri for FDA approval.

The two companies received a priority review designation from the FDA. As a result, their application will be reviewed more quickly, potentially shaving as much as four months off the normal time. The reason why the companies got this priority review for Tysabri shouldn't be ignored: The drug satisfies a significant unmet clinical need.

Readers without direct experience with multiple sclerosis may not appreciate just how debilitating it is, or the impact it has upon people's lives. There are few good options available for treatment, and patients don't always respond to them especially well. And for whatever safety problems there might be with Tysabri, the drug was quite effective for some patients.

We at The Motley Fool have talked a lot about Tysabri and the safety issues, and there's no need to rehash that. (The drug has been linked to a few cases of the rare neurological disease PML, or progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy.) The question now is how the FDA will respond. Will the companies' newly submitted data, safety assessment, and revised labeling be good enough for approval?

It's a tough call. On one hand, I'm sure the FDA wants to be sensitive to the needs of some very sick individuals, many of whom would likely be willing to assume whatever slight (but serious) risks go with Tysabri in exchange for the possibility of a better quality of life. On the other hand, the FDA has been a tough customer of late with some other drugs -- potentially holding up Bristol-Myers' (NYSE: BMY - News) experimental diabetes drug Pargluva for years by requesting more data.

FDA approval is now the name of the game. Even if the FDA slaps a serious black-box warning label on the drug, once it's approved, doctors have considerable latitude in how they prescribe it for patients. And considering that Tysabri can cost more than $20,000 per patient per year (and there are about 350,000 MS patients in the US), even capturing 10% of the market would be a very meaningful opportunity for Elan.

I said before that I thought the safety concerns would take away Tysabri's chance to be a blockbuster (generally defined as $1 billion in sales). Maybe I'll be right, maybe I'll be wrong. I'd be more than happy to write a follow-up piece a year from now saying I was wrong to doubt Tysabri's potential -- not because it means that Elan shareholders made money, but because it would mean that a lot of patients are seeing some real improvement in their lives. In any case, Elan shareholders should buckle their seatbelts. The next few months are apt to be a heckuva ride"

kingofthehill

12-07-2005, 01:23 PM

up 50 cents today

skiracer

12-07-2005, 01:39 PM

up 50 cents today

King,
You're beginning to make a believer out of me. Kicking myself for not putting a few thousand into it much earlier just for the hell of it. I done much worse things. Good luck with it. Hope it goes to $30 for you just for remaining steadfast in your beliefs.

kingofthehill

12-07-2005, 03:08 PM

Thanks for the kinds words the MS patients will be the only ones happier than me .. and rightly so.........

Websman

12-07-2005, 04:06 PM

What? Up $1.18 today? Looks like it's starting to happen.

spikefader

12-07-2005, 05:36 PM

What? Up $1.18 today? Looks like it's starting to happen.Yep! THIS is bullish action. This is the type of action that speaks volumes to me. It's 'booming' through channels now; a clear sign it wants higher. That's the type of action that will turn a bear into a bull. It's looking impulsive, and it's very early days for it. Daily money flow is just budding. Still plenty of time for bulls to stalk this one. Wouldn't a big gap fill be nice for the King and Co. :D

Websman

12-07-2005, 05:49 PM

Yep! THIS is bullish action. This is the type of action that speaks volumes to me. It's 'booming' through channels now; a clear sign it wants higher. That's the type of action that will turn a bear into a bull. It's looking impulsive, and it's very early days for it. Daily money flow is just budding. Still plenty of time for bulls to stalk this one. Wouldn't a big gap fill be nice for the King and Co. :D

Looks like a repeat of last year, when SIRI did the same thing for me.

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/jump.gif (http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/misc.php?do=getsmilies&wysiwyg=0&forumid=6#)

sisterwin2

12-08-2005, 08:34 AM

I bought in at 10.70... Hopeing that the Ms drug get out to the patients...

I have been branded with Ms now 5 yrs.. doing very well with just taking steriods. As soon as I got the final dx in 2000 I left 2001 for a dream trip to cruise the Caribbean for a few yrs. I did that now I'm back to work in a lower stress job and not so physical. I am putting my money where I want the results. I know I should never get emotional on my picks but this time I am going to. Only had 500$ extra bucks but I am in. If I loose the 500 I may loose much more. Good luck to all.

kingofthehill

12-08-2005, 08:59 AM

sisterwin2

12-08-2005, 02:58 PM

really see a Doc that understands Tysabri a top Southeastern USA Nero told me nearly all of his 4,0000 patients will be on Tysabri within 18 months of its re approval.

Tysabri reverses the lesions and is better taken in early stages than latter stage

Yes.... my neruo doc wants to wait for the drug. I am not sure how abreast he is with the drug but has mentioned it to me the last two visits.

I was on ( the name exscapes me) the injection weekly but so many side effects and my white count skyrocketed. He has hopes for Tysabri with me.

In the mean time I hope I make some money with the company.

Dena

Websman

12-08-2005, 08:49 PM

Spike, I'm thiking that $23 - 25 would be good price target for ELN. Would you agree or disagree. Thankyou for your help oh wise one.

P.S. If my post is a lttle noisy, it's because I'm posting this from a basketball game at the local high school. Hey, they scored again!!!

spikefader

12-08-2005, 09:26 PM

Spike, I'm thiking that $23 - 25 would be good price target for ELN. Would you agree or disagree.
That's a pretty good target. I'm just playin' with a pretty optimistic count in the chart below. I think it won't be that simple, but ya never know! :D

I think you'll have to be patient for gap fill and endure impulse corrections on the way up. 16.45 will likely resist well. I think we're in a weekly 3rd as well, so expect maybe 15.00 first, then correction back to 12.50ish, then 5th to 16.50ish, then that area is the weekly channel area that will resistant hard while it does corrective waves and decides whether the 'c' gets bought or it meanders around in corrective waves while more strength builds for a base to push to gap fill. The big question is it going to be an impulsive fill or a frustrating slow one. But it's lookin' great here.

Long-term, who knows......maybe in 5-10 years it'll be at 70.00.

http://img357.imageshack.us/img357/1821/elndec8target6vs.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

kingofthehill

12-13-2005, 09:25 AM

a great article on Tysabri

http://www.marketocracy.com/media/pdf/marketscope/CurrentMarketscope.pdf

kingofthehill

12-13-2005, 11:20 PM

spike what did you think about the trading today ??????/

spikefader

12-14-2005, 02:17 AM

spike what did you think about the trading today ??????/Beautiful price action! Probably was the 4 corrective wave and now the start of the 5th up to 16.45 price resistance from back in Aug 04. Minor channel long with confirming intraday inverted SHS and neckline break entry at 12.04. Stop tucked under lod for very nice r/r setup. Regret not watching it closer. Look for the 5th up dude!

kingofthehill

12-15-2005, 03:40 PM

update please spike ................huge volume today

Websman

12-15-2005, 04:10 PM

Oh look, I made some more money today...

spikefader

12-15-2005, 04:22 PM

Great!

Now ELN is at triple top with channel short today. Lord, please give these guys a breakout impulse! :D
Hah, the prayer the big guy worked! lol

Congrats King. Happy for you. 16.45 will resist heavily I think; it's price resistance, and weekly channel resistance. You'll hold through it, but for others trading it shorter term, either protective puts at that point or take profits and buy the c long setup should this waving continue and/or channel bust.

Very nice bullish action ain't it!

http://images.indymedia.org/imc/nyc/image/7/131489_hooray.gifand the crowd roars!

Websman

12-15-2005, 10:09 PM

Oh look, I made some more money today...

and a lot of it, I might add.

noshadyldy

12-16-2005, 11:42 AM

and a lot of it, I might add.

You're a very entertaining kinda guy, Webs. I'm happy for you! Go make more. (If YOU make more on ELN, "I" make more )

sisterwin2

12-16-2005, 05:12 PM

YEA HA>>> ELN go go go

Websman

12-16-2005, 05:17 PM

YEA HA>>> ELN go go go

Jim Cramer bashed ELN last night, so I'm not suprised it corrected some today. My prediction is that it will drop a little more on monday morning, before it continues it's wonderful climb up.

It almost makes me tear up, just thinking about it. All that money I'm making... It's awesome...sniff, sniff...excuse me...

Websman

12-16-2005, 05:20 PM

You're a very entertaining kinda guy, Webs. I'm happy for you! Go make more. (If YOU make more on ELN, "I" make more )

Money is always nice. http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/bananasmile.gif (http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/misc.php?do=getsmilies&wysiwyg=0&forumid=4#)

I hope we both make a lot of it.

By the way, Noshady. That new picture of yours rocks!

skiracer

12-16-2005, 05:33 PM

I sold mine off today at $14.25. In at $12.65 out at $14.25 over the course of this week. Can't ask for more than that. Just about made up that fiasco with HOM. I'm looking for it to consolidate some before it continues back up. Both daily and weekly giving channel short signals after todays close so it could easily fall back a little farther which I'm counting on. Also saw something about BIIB and Avonex sales dropping here in US but Tysarbi might get it's review in early March. I thought it would spike on that news but no dice.

sisterwin2

12-16-2005, 05:42 PM

Websman

12-16-2005, 05:54 PM

I have just got to share this.... I was on avonex for 9 months that I had to pay out of pocket. I began getting very sick and after fevers went to ER. I was admitted with extremely high white count.. they said from the avonex...

I am not believing the ones who died was totally from the new drug,

Just the truth,

From the info I've been seeing indicates that the PML deaths was more than likely a result of a combination of Avonex and Tysabri. There were no problems with Tysabri alone.

noshadyldy

12-17-2005, 08:30 AM

Money is always nice. http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/bananasmile.gif (http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/misc.php?do=getsmilies&wysiwyg=0&forumid=4#)

I hope we both make a lot of it.

By the way, Noshady. That new picture of yours rocks!

Thanks Webs, Taken at a Holloween party this past October. I was Medusa (note the gold things in my hair).
Anyway, a poem I just filtched off the AOL message board.

Twas the week before Christmas and all through this board
Was anticipation of approval from the FDA lord
The shorties were pumping and dumping their stock
While the longs were just holding, their price was in lock
With the FDA gurus locked up in their office
Just give us a tidbit so we can fill up the coffers
So what to my listening ear did appear
Hints of FDA approval would very soon be here
So, shorties good luck as you take a big hit
You will wish you were long in a wee little bit
And to all us longs as ELN goes outta sight
Merry Chrismas to all, and to all a good night!

skiracer

12-17-2005, 08:52 AM

I think it will eventually go off and close that gap but it's not going to go straight up and close the gap with out some peaks and valleys enroute. My plan from here is to catch those peaks and valleys. I think you'll see a bit more consolidation to around 13 before it continues back up to close that gap. It would have been nice to be in like Webs from $6.89 range or lower but you never know what is going to happen with the politics of burocraecy and the FDA's decision making process. Plus there are many other underlying factors with both companies involved. Protect those gains while you've got them. Cute poem.

kingofthehill

12-19-2005, 11:19 AM

spike .........eln

spikefader

12-19-2005, 01:21 PM

spike .........eln
A wonderful stock it is :D

Just took a long here at intraday support 13.36 with very tight stop on it. I want perfection! hehe

spikefader

12-19-2005, 01:40 PM

A wonderful stock it is :D

Just took a long here at intraday support 13.36 with very tight stop on it. I want perfection! heheOut for tiny -0.15% on that failure of support. Back to stalkin'......

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:03 PM

Spike what ya think on ELN here @ 13.08?

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:05 PM

I'm thinking off a daily it is at temp support. Could be wrong but we shall see!

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:10 PM

Coil off the 20 band appears to be working here on ELN. Spike could this have been the perfect entry?

noshadyldy

12-19-2005, 02:14 PM

Well,,, I must be greedier...err.. i mean more aggressive than others but my order is in for at $12.90. Besides, beings that santa knows who's naughty and who's nice and the fact that he's due, maybe he'll let me have that one, maybe even the order i've got in for more at $12.02 but not holding my breath. (woulda had to have been a whole lot naughtier...err.. i mean nicer for that one!) http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:15 PM

ELN now needs to take out the 15MA. It is acting as R here @ 13.26. It does seen as if my 5dma is trying to hook back up. This would be the first hook of the day thus far. STO now above the 20 band and sitting around 45. My 3 period shift is trying to indicate a small break.

I’m bullish this stock down to 13.00 off intra chart

spikefader

12-19-2005, 02:15 PM

Long ELN 13.22 at R shoulder with 1% stop

spikefader

12-19-2005, 02:17 PM

Ya, Runner, that tweezer bottom was the head, the neckline break at 13.26 is in now, and I think she rocks from here.

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:17 PM

There goes the 3 period shift!!

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:21 PM

My oder did not fill for some reason. I must have had it down to far!!

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:29 PM

I got order in off 15dma or 13.22.

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:31 PM

That time my order filled. Heck I thought I was in @ 13.08!!

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:35 PM

Using 1% model stop set 12.38.

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:48 PM

I think in the heat of battle I put my buy order in at 12.08 instead of 13.08. This is not the first time I've done this. I need to get on the ball here.

Runner

12-19-2005, 02:51 PM

I think here is where we see a slight bull bear fight. My MA’s are together here. The sto has moved up to 78. I call this the make it or break it point. We need a short panic. This would cause a nice pop.

spikefader

12-19-2005, 03:33 PM

Took my 1% hit and reentered 13.15 after that double bottom is in. I'll give this one 1% too.

Websman

12-19-2005, 04:01 PM

Got my order filled at $6.89. lol

skiracer

12-19-2005, 04:40 PM

Got my order filled at $6.89. lol

Webs,
Apparently you're smarter than the rest of us. I watched it fall today and was hesitant about re-entering yet. I'll opt to watch it in the am for an entry, although I did have the call right for today. Great entry on your part Webs.

Runner

12-19-2005, 04:49 PM

Got my order filled at $6.89. lol
lolo rub it in some more.... Really you da-man Webs. Heck your port is getting mega huge and everything you touch turns to gold!!

spikefader

12-19-2005, 05:17 PM

Got my order filled at $6.89. lolYep, and with that entry you should never sell it. I'm serious. You'll have eternal bragging rights. Your hugeness will perpetuate these boards for the rest of time. It's never going back to $6.89!! hehe. I seriously doubt it will get under $10 in the next 20 years. At the very least, hold it until you get a 10-bagger.
You'll thank me later. Now hush up and stop making us look bad :D

Websman

12-19-2005, 05:36 PM

Yep, and with that entry you should never sell it. I'm serious. You'll have eternal bragging rights. Your hugeness will perpetuate these boards for the rest of time. It's never going back to $6.89!! hehe. I seriously doubt it will get under $10 in the next 20 years. At the very least, hold it until you get a 10-bagger.
You'll thank me later. Now hush up and stop making us look bad :D

It makes me feel more confident in my trade when I see you guys buying it. I know if you're buying it's still climbing. :)

Here's to all of us making $$$!

dmk112

12-19-2005, 07:26 PM

This thing will be a penny stock if any news breaks on this wonder drug they have.. BECAREFUL!

skiracer

12-19-2005, 08:58 PM

This thing will be a penny stock if any news breaks on this wonder drug they have.. BECAREFUL!

DMK,
You know I felt that way about it from the beginning an it kept me out of it and from getting in on it early. Now I feel that it is going to make it back on the market and I just don't see them knocking it down for whatever reasons. They might have acted prematurely in passing judgement on it initially. I'm sure it has it's drawbacks for some peoples use of it but now it seems that more people will benefit from it than not.

Websman

12-19-2005, 10:20 PM

This thing will be a penny stock if any news breaks on this wonder drug they have.. BECAREFUL!

All evidence points to a quick return of Tysabri. I will more than likely sell on the news of it's return.

kingofthehill

12-19-2005, 10:39 PM

Sr Manager, Marketing: Biogen Idec

Job ID 287072
Position Type Full-Time Employee
Company Name Biogen Idec
Location Cambridge, MA
Salary Unspecified
Date Posted December 15, 2005
Experience 2-5 Years Experience

View Biogen Idec profile and job listings

Job Description
Led the TYSABRI US brand promotional efforts. Responsibile for the development and deployment of all promotional materials for TYSABRI. These would include the core sales aid, the patient brochure, the TYSABRI.com web site. Owner of the US brand promotional messages and for ensuring pull through all promotional materials and promotional channels. Primary owner of the advertising agency. Brand team link to Global, to Public Affairs and to Patient Promotional teams.

Qualifications
6 to 8 sales / marketing experience in pharmaceuticals or biotech marketing; ability to manage vendors and cross funtional teams (Promotional Review Committee); prior marketing / agency experience required. Strong leadership skills. Creative, strong communications skills.

Education
MBA or MPH

spikefader

12-20-2005, 10:07 AM

ELN. Took the 1% hit today. Long again at 12.93 anticipating the R shoulder of inverted SHS intraday. I'll get it right eventually.

Runner

12-20-2005, 10:07 AM

Closed eln for a scratch. This was my last trade of the year and I do not like the markets right now and will stop trading in this choppy environment.

noshadyldy

12-20-2005, 10:29 AM

well Fib retracement places 1st level retracement at or about 11.68 and 50% at 11.02. Maybe my other 12.02 will fill. Sure is a bumpy ride in this buggy.

spikefader

12-20-2005, 10:30 AM

Gee I love these 1% stop outs. If ELN is so good, why isn't it giving me the perfect entry?!

spikefader

12-20-2005, 10:31 AM

Long 12.56 S2 attempt.

noshadyldy

12-20-2005, 10:38 AM

Long 12.56 S2 attempt.

spike, where is the S2 coming from? I've just been looking at the Fibs based on low in mid october to high just 2 days ago.

dmk112

12-20-2005, 10:40 AM

ELN may be done for a while...it retraced that entire thrust upward that it did last week..

spikefader

12-20-2005, 10:41 AM

And added on the neckline break at 12.62.

It's a steep inverted SHS this one, but it's looking strong, so I may at last have the perfect entry!

spikefader

12-20-2005, 10:46 AM

spike, where is the S2 coming from? I've just been looking at the Fibs based on low in mid october to high just 2 days ago.
The S2 I'm looking at is the one generated by quotetracker. Anyone looking for pivots, it's under 'select indicators' in the upper indicators under 'pivots'. It places S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 on the intraday chart that you select it for. If you want it to apply globally, you've got to right click the chart and save the chart template as your default.

spikefader

12-20-2005, 10:47 AM

Now there's a better looking intraday inverted SHS. Anyone not long at this stage and looking, wait for the neckline break 12.69 and buy it. It is a valid good looking setup with stop under lod. Or you could buy here at 12.65 in anticipation of it.

spikefader

12-20-2005, 10:51 AM

And there goes the neckline and it should run now. My average 12.59 with a 2% stop on it now. I'm gonna go ponder this morning's action and make sure I'm correct holding bullish bias.

http://img495.imageshack.us/img495/6707/elndec20intra7fr.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

12-20-2005, 11:08 AM

http://img495.imageshack.us/img495/1581/elndec20intra20is.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Bears surely must be worried here. Price still holding here. People stalking ELN and looking for a setup with a sub 3% stop, this is it. This is 100% valid setup with great r/r. 3% risk to target the big gap fill at 44.17 or 247%. That's a r/r of 98! Now that's a huge r/r.

Even if you target short at the 16.45 price resistance that's within the big gap, that's still 29% profit with r/r of 11! Sweet dudes.

noshadyldy

12-20-2005, 11:38 AM

Thanks Spike!

Now I gotta tell you all 'bout a dream I had the other night, so pull up yer blankies and gather 'round. It was like the watching of ELN was a national televised event. The crowds were all gathered around these huge monitors and suddenly "it lifted." The announcer shouted "there she goes, she's off!" The stock started climbing and climbing, the crowds were literally cheering. It was like watching a space shuttle take off. (hope it's not the "challenger.") Anyway, I was momentarily "out" of the stock at that time and there I was frantically trying to get back in and my system locked up. I was pounding away at the keys and nothing happened. That's actually the second dream I had of that thing taking off and my being on the outside of it at the time. Needless to say, I'm always into it to some degree.
What a frightening dream, worse than the one where you get caught naked in a crowd. (oh who am I kiddin, that one's my favorite.) <grin>

Thomrich

12-20-2005, 12:01 PM

Greetings ,

Spike just thought Id let you know I shoulda left EENC alone as you suggested,got stopped out and it still is droppin.Lokks like 12s around the corner.

cordially Tom

spikefader

12-20-2005, 12:09 PM

ELN: I really would be surprised if this pattern fails. But I'm wondering where the volume is..... oh it'll probably show up when all the fat cats get back from lunch :D

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/7277/elndec20intra35min0je.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

12-20-2005, 12:30 PM

Are these charts helpful or should I move 'em to my thread and not hijack yours King?

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/491/elndec20intra44aj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

12-20-2005, 12:40 PM

The announcer shouted "there she goes, she's off!" The stock started climbing and climbing, the crowds were literally cheering. It was like watching a space shuttle take off......I was frantically trying to get back in and my system locked up. I was pounding away at the keys and nothing happened......Terrifying dream! hehe But I can think of a worse one; seeing ENE plunging, and pounding at the keys trying to enter a market order to exit your retirement ENE stock with nothing happening! Those crooks should be forced naked and whacked with sticks for every share that they manipulated with their wicked skullduggery. But more pleasant sights I can happily imagine :)

noshadyldy

12-20-2005, 12:52 PM

I'm wondering where the volume is..... oh it'll probably show up when all the fat cats get back from lunch :D
Right on Schedule! lunch over and price is moving again.
(off topic but ... anyone see the Family Stone? Go see it but tell wife to bring the hankies.I wasn't forewarned and was just short of resorting to use of my neighbors sleeve. It's a slow starter but then turns into a terrific movie.)
Ok where were we... oh yhea... GO ELN!

Runner

12-20-2005, 12:58 PM

Spike, awesome call here on ELN. I had to go to the dentist and said heck with this just get out. Well you made a very nice play on ELN off that s/h/s. Now let it rock on for you.

I had a feeling it was still under pressure and had not clue where it was going to stop. Hey Spike you got the perfect entry..lol

I’m out of here—finished the season slightly ahead of goal

Thomrich

12-20-2005, 01:00 PM

Greetings,

Diidnt mean to post EENC on this thread,thought I was on Spikes,sorry King.

cordially Tom

spikefader

12-20-2005, 01:03 PM

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/7711/elndec2030min8ia.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Tom,

:-( Bad luck bro. Dust off, analyse what you missed, note the important TA failures/lessons and modify if necessary. I wonder how that straddle would have paid. I didn't note the prices at the time, but it was definately the better option in 20/20 hindsight. Out of money or near money calls and puts, and this nice volatile move down rewards the play. Quick glance at those Jan 20 puts show 4.00x4.30 and they may have cost you 0.50 back there?? So that's a 9-bagger on them, and you offset the cost of the out of money calls for the straddle and you've still got a wonderful profit. Ah well, who was to know for sure it was gonna move....

But it sure looks in trouble now with that major bust.....

Best to ya.

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/549/eencdec20weekly4cp.th.jpg (http://img194.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eencdec20weekly4cp.jpg)

check out that money flow zero line reject; was the whisper....add to that the weekly gap failure, and there's your recipe.

spikefader

12-20-2005, 01:27 PM

And speaking of straddles, let's look at those quotes for Feb straddle position for ELN, the stock of the day :D

Straddle play here:
Long 7.50 strike Feb puts for $0.20
Long 20.00 strike Feb calls for $0.20

A fast 5 point bull move should net a 27 bagger on each???
A fast 5 point bear move should net a 36 bagger on each???
These are guesses.
A slow dribble stock price move will cost you minimal amount considering those premium prices. Say you buy 10 of each; it costs you $200 for the calls, $200 for the puts, add your commission of $20 (only one way cuz if they don't move you won't pay to sell 'em, and if it does move then you won't care about the 20 bucks exit fee haha). So all up, the play costs you $420. And if it actually MOVES one way or the other, you're in for perhaps $5,000 profit or +1100% after you deduct the losing part of the play. Pretty cheap way to get a r/r of 11 and an amazing profit. But it's gotta move. Snails will kill straddles, but when they're this cheap does it matter? When you're covered both ways it seems like a good play to me. Either the setup long here is right or it's wrong. Usually the setups I find are either big time right or big time wrong (which is why I love tight stops).

Let's see how it pans out; I'll revisit those quotes in a month or so...

noshadyldy

12-20-2005, 04:20 PM

very similar looking candlestick for today as to the candlestick the day before last weeks spike!!!!! Here's hoping!

Websman

12-20-2005, 05:36 PM

check out this ELN video that I found on the Yahoo board. I laughed my --- off when I saw it.

http://mm.dfilm.com/mm2s/mm_route.php?id=2739660

kingofthehill

12-20-2005, 09:04 PM

i like your idea spike im going to dabble in it

dmk112

12-20-2005, 09:27 PM

Spike, was that just a daytrade? Or are you still holding this?

skiracer

12-20-2005, 09:34 PM

Spike, was that just a daytrade? Or are you still holding this?

DMK,
What is your take on it and how it played out today.

dmk112

12-20-2005, 10:16 PM

DMK,
What is your take on it and how it played out today.

Looks like it worked out very well, I don't like the daily though...

skiracer

12-20-2005, 10:29 PM

Looks like it worked out very well, I don't like the daily though...

DMK,
Did you consider buying it or would you consider buying it now that it is exhibiting this strength or do you think it is on thin ice?

spikefader

12-21-2005, 01:59 AM

Spike, was that just a daytrade? Or are you still holding this?
Daytrade stocks!?! ha. Not any more. The only reasons you'll see me open and close a stock position in one day these days is a) I don't like the swing position I took b) I stop out or c) the bias changes for whatever reason. Stocks are for swingin' only; futures are for daytrading. They are great daytrading vehicles.

So yep, ELN is just another swing that happens to have a nice 112% target on it. I think the 4 down has completed and we're about to see a 5th within a bigger 3rd of 5. If that's true, my stop is safe cuz the impulse nature will drive it up for the next 5 days and any retrace abc move shouldn't touch me, and should the opportunity presents itself, I will add at 'c' if I'm able, since there will be one more bigger 5th up to the gap. Hopefully my count is right and it will run nicely away from my entry so I don't get tagged/shook out. In hindsight I should have worked hard to get a good entry when it broke over 10 (which was during 1 impulse up) and I would have entered the 2 (abc) down. But I didn't due to other distractions.

Anyway, having said all that, I'm targeting the gap fill up there, and the only way I'll exit early is if there's some ugly chart action that justifies closing it out, or if I'm stopped out for even. It got up to 4.6% profit today so I'd be crazy not to tighten the stop now. It's either the perfect entry or I don't want it now.

Daytrade ELN? Ya kiddin'! hehe.

dmk112

12-21-2005, 10:25 AM

DMK,
Did you consider buying it or would you consider buying it now that it is exhibiting this strength or do you think it is on thin ice?

Ski, I missed the initial entry on 12/14 so I let it go b/c I don't like to chase. The thing I don't like about it is that it retraced that whole move up that happened on the 15th. But Spike sees this as a wave completion so he may be right. I guess you can look to enter if it it shows more strength but not I. Just my thoughts.

skiracer

12-21-2005, 10:49 AM

Ski, I missed the initial entry on 12/14 so I let it go b/c I don't like to chase. The thing I don't like about it is that it retraced that whole move up that happened on the 15th. But Spike sees this as a wave completion so he may be right. I guess you can look to enter if it it shows more strength but not I. Just my thoughts.

DMK,
Actually it performed exactly as I called it and thought it would. I was looking for it to consolidate back to the $12.75/13 range an it did even better by going all the way back to $12.40. I already re-entered at $12.75 yesterday. Would have gotten in a little earlier but wanted to make sure it was going to hold up over the neckline break off that intraday SHS. Was just curious as to how you felt about it. I agree with Spike on his call with the EW counts. I think there is alot of momentum playing and profit taking going on with it with makes it even more volitaile. The next positive newsbreak on it will provide another impulse spike up. I took a nice gain on the first play I made on it. That's the way I'm playing in now, just trying to catch the peaks and valleys.

spikefader

12-21-2005, 11:27 AM

DMK,
Actually it performed exactly as I called it and thought it would. I was looking for it to consolidate back to the $12.75/13 range an it did even better by going all the way back to $12.40. I already re-entered at $12.75 yesterday. Would have gotten in a little earlier but wanted to make sure it was going to hold up over the neckline break off that intraday SHS. Was just curious as to how you felt about it. I agree with Spike on his call with the EW counts. I think there is alot of momentum playing and profit taking going on with it with makes it even more volitaile. The next positive newsbreak on it will provide another impulse spike up. I took a nice gain on the first play I made on it. That's the way I'm playing in now, just trying to catch the peaks and valleys.Don't want to split hairs here, ski, but I interpret 'consolidations' differently. Not sure how one can describe an impulsive move from 14.51 to 12.42 a consolidation. I look at the word consolidation as forming some kind of platform in a range, where price doesn't move much but meanders within a few percentage points, until it finally resolves itself into a trend.

But anyway, glad you took a bite of profit from it! Way to go.

skiracer

12-21-2005, 01:07 PM

Don't want to split hairs here, ski, but I interpret 'consolidations' differently. Not sure how one can describe an impulsive move from 14.51 to 12.42 a consolidation. I look at the word consolidation as forming some kind of platform in a range, where price doesn't move much but meanders within a few percentage points, until it finally resolves itself into a trend.

But anyway, glad you took a bite of profit from it! Way to go.

Spike,
I wouldn't want to split hairs either. But if you go back to these 3 posts, #'s 773,776,796 on this thread you can see exactly what I said about it consolidating or pulling back. I don't think it was anywhere near an impulsive move down as much as a pullback to different levels as it consolidated those previous gains. The weekly and the daily from the last few days before yesterday both signalled channel shorts. I specifically stated that I thought it was going to "consolidate" or pullback to the $13 range. I also stated the day that it closed just alittle above $13 that I thought it would could go further an it did fall further to a LOD of $12.40 before turning back up. You guys bought it several times during that drop and got stopped out until the $12.60 level where it held.
The truth is that it did drop from $14.50 range to $12.40 range like I thought it would after exiting it at $14.25. Call the drop anything you wish to label it. The only important thing is being on the right side of the moves regardless of how it got there. You an I have both stated numerous times how important it is to take profits when you have them in hand and to protect those gains with properly placed stops along the way. This is just another prime example of that type of a situation. I took the time to bring this 10 min. chart up of the last 3 days on ELN. Personally I think it did drop in a more stepped fashion that impulsively from the $14.25 level. Although yesterday from $13 to $12.40 I would agree that it did fall impulsively.

http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/7151/eln27dm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

12-21-2005, 01:46 PM

skiracer

12-21-2005, 01:53 PM

Ya, I think it's just semantics on the word consolidation, ski. I'll also be a pest and call semantics on the 'channel short' terminology you use, cuz I look at them as expanding booming action/profit-taking areas rather than channel shorts. I'm not playing a semantics game to be argumentative or to criticize past statements or bias AT ALL. I'm just trying to clarify and nail down terms so we're all on the same page is all. You were 100% correct to refrain from bullishness on ELN when you called that, and you were correct, and not only that but you took the profit, and it was all good :D

Sorry if I'm coming across as obnoxious, sometimes my specific brain annoys people.

Spike,
I think that I would be worse in those specifics than you. No big an I think that we are on the same channel over the long run. The content sometimes does get confusing with the words but being on the right side of the moves is the only important thing. Like yesterday with the call on the SHS and the neckline break. I made my play an entry on that call. I was waiting for what I thought was the right time and your analysis confirmed my making my entry at $12.75. Disagreeing and dialogue are never a problem with me.

Actually I'm not that well versed in the channel terminology and was more or less learning and picking up an education on the technical aspects of the channels through your posts. Basically I've been operating under the idea that when the candle or upper or lower tail touches either the upper or lower channel lines it is a signal of a possible reversal of the previous trend or movement. I was calling it a channel short or long in reference to the possible change in direction once it had touched the line. I didn't actually mean it to be a short play but a reversal of direction. I'm always eager to learn and accept the correct terminology and logic behind the analysis. You might have to post some definitions an explanations of the proper usage on all of those terms that you use so we are all more informed an use them in the correct form. Thanks Ed.

spikefader

12-22-2005, 10:46 AM

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/4148/elndec223dg.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Gettin ready to rumble. Bullish impulse price breakout intrady just occurred, and it's a movin'! :D Where are my shades?

noshadyldy

12-22-2005, 11:01 AM

ka ching!!

skiracer

12-22-2005, 11:04 AM

ka ching!!

Lets not count our chickens before they get out of the shell or put the horns on it.

spikefader

12-22-2005, 12:15 PM

hehe ya, but.....

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/9774/elndec22day8mj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

skiracer

12-22-2005, 12:19 PM

Runner

12-22-2005, 12:57 PM

Great job guys and gals. Nice action on ELN.

skiracer

12-22-2005, 01:51 PM

Great job guys and gals. Nice action on ELN.

I'll take it anyway I can get it but I think the momo and daytrading scalpers are messing with it today.

spikefader

12-22-2005, 02:02 PM

I'm kinda supersticious like counting your winnings when you're playing poker. But I was just kidding with her anyway. Whatever is going to be isn't going to change because of exhuberance. We're in good shape.
Spike, you used that terminology, "channel long", to designate a trend reversal signal right. Meaning it's signalling you would want to be on the long side of any play right now huh.
Yep, you got it. Those channel longs are where price falls, touches the channel and/or goes beneath it and causes it to expand. And the are very good signal on the daily to start looking for the intraday pattern to confirm your trend (minitrend) reversal attempt. The best ones are when the major long-term trend is in the direction that you're trying to go. And when they confirm the following few days where price trades above the high of that reversal day then your bias should be that way. But by that stage, you've missed the best r/r. But the essential ingredient to a channel long is the intraday pattern to confirm. If there isn't one, the chances of the channel long failing or price causing more expansion of it (while it searches for that reversal intraday pattern) are much much greater.

So with ELN now confirmed by trading higher than yesterday you wanna be on the long side of it. But just like everything else, patterns fail and this could too. It's merely the line in the sand I attempt to draw. There was an awesome intraday pattern at the bottom of it, so that's why I feel a whole lot better about the position.

Websman

12-22-2005, 05:18 PM

ka ching!!

Don'tcha just love it!!! Hahaha!

skiracer

12-22-2005, 05:31 PM

Don'tcha just love it!!! Hahaha!
Webs,
I only love it when I cash my chips in, then I know I have a winner when the money is in my hand. Other than that it's only paper and can turn just as easily. Never good to count your money when you're still at the table. That is unless you've protected it in some manner.

Websman

12-22-2005, 06:21 PM

Webs,
I only love it when I cash my chips in, then I know I have a winner when the money is in my hand. Other than that it's only paper and can turn just as easily. Never good to count your money when you're still at the table. That is unless you've protected it in some manner.

Always like Ski to bring me back down to Earth. Hahaha!

Of course, your honest comments are always welcome! :)

sisterwin2

12-22-2005, 06:43 PM

First, sure glad I got the kids a new pc for xmas.... this one is the one bought 8 yrs ago but I can still get on.

About Stops. I want to set a stop but dont want the norm up/down of the day to catch me too early. I dont want to sell unless on down trend consistantly. Not too sure with ameritrade how I do that. Should I set stop at say -5% of today high? Take CIB.... on trend up and I dont want to loose my 25% gain but dont want it to stop out too soon either.... does the question make sense?

Ty all and Happy Holidays still.

Dena

skiracer

12-22-2005, 07:27 PM

Always like Ski to bring me back down to Earth. Hahaha!

Of course, your honest comments are always welcome! :)

Webs,
Us late comers are alot more vunerable than you with that great early entry.
We don't have the cushion that you have. I'm looking to protect and keep what I've got. Seems that everytime I start celebrating before I actually cash in the worm turns on me. I guess thats my penance for good looks and health. No luck just good health and meant to work like a dog to get and keep what I've got. I can appreciate your feeling good about this stock and position. Go for it and good luck. You've earned it by getting in early and staying with it.

Websman

12-22-2005, 09:14 PM

I guess thats my penance for good looks and health.

I have the same problem. I'm too darn good looking, plus I'm healthy.

spikefader

12-23-2005, 12:17 PM

http://img286.imageshack.us/img286/8284/elndec234fk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

kingofthehill

12-23-2005, 12:20 PM

ok Spike tell me what that means in English

spikefader

12-23-2005, 08:26 PM

lol ok. no rocket science. I got this system with a 20-day chart using parabolic stop and reverse trend indicator (PSAR) which is the red dots you see. Principle being buy stocks in bull trend (dots below price). Then you match that with Money Flow Index, which signals buy if it hits 70 and sell if it hits 30. It's actually a very nice system.

So in English, ELN had a buy signal today at the open when it was in a bullish PSAR and money flow hit 70.

sekto

12-23-2005, 10:08 PM

im using stockscharts .com what do i set the money flow settings to? Thanks spike

spikefader

12-28-2005, 03:07 AM

im using stockscharts .com what do i set the money flow settings to? Thanks spikeYou can't set that chart up with stockcharts because it uses Chaikin Money Flow, which is distinct from QT's historical Money Flow Index (prophet.net charts)

You want to go over to http://www.prophet.net/analyze/sc.jsp and set up 20-day 60 min interval with psar and money flow index indicators. OR just click this tiny link and you'll get it the chart for ELN. http://tinyurl.com/8dddk

(then for other symbols, just go up to your address line in your browser and change the ticker from ELN to whatever you want and the settings remain.

http://charts.prophet.net/servlet/ChartServer?symbol=ELN&width=640&height=600&price.display=3&duration=20d&interval=60&price.scale=0&VOL=&hideevents=1&barsofar=1&PSAR=,,&MFI=,,&scheme=blugray&snapquote=1&service=ProphetSnapCharts&scsave=1&randomize=1.3544682093972942
(http://www.prophet.net/analyze/scauth.jsp?symbol=ELN&width=934&height=400&price.display=3&duration=20d&interval=60&price.scale=0&VOL=&hideevents=1&barsofar=1&PSAR=,,&MFI=,,&scheme=blugray&snapquote=1&service=ProphetSnapCharts&scsave=1&randomize=1.3544682093972942)

kingofthehill

12-28-2005, 11:52 AM

so spike what does your chart say

spikefader

12-28-2005, 12:07 PM

so spike what does your chart sayIt says bias still long with a green light to buy today's S1/yesterday's pivot of 13.65. The 20-day or 3-months chart clearly shows an obvious SHS formation with current prices forming the R shoulder. Cautious short-term traders should really be taking profits at this level to wait until that resolves, and people looking to tighten stops from here should use say 13.55 which is under the 30 min tweezer.

My stop remains at even.

http://img305.imageshack.us/img305/9277/elndec285yi.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Thomrich

12-28-2005, 09:43 PM

Websman

12-28-2005, 09:50 PM

skiracer

12-28-2005, 10:53 PM

I have the same problem Tom. I bought VPHM at 6.60 and sold for 9.90. Now it's at $20.

I wanted to dump ELN quite a few times, but I felt too strongly in it to sell. So far it's paid off, but it's not a profit until I actually close my position.

We'll find some more winners. hang around. 2006 will be a great year for us!

What is the problem in taking your gains. These stocks peak and valley over an over again as they move up in price. The idea is to catch them as they present the right setups again whether long or short. Webs has a great low entry in ELN and at this time it is realistic to hold tight for the big run up that is coming. But on the other hand as the peaks and valleys present themselves those opportunities can be taken advantage of in a realist manner. I was real late to the party and my first entry in ELN was 1400 shares at $12.65. I exited at $14.25 for a 1.60 gain on that trade. The stock pulled back and presented another entry at the mid $12.50 to $12.75 range. I jumped in again at $12.75 and rode it to $13.85 for another 1.10 gain on 2000 shares. Now it is pulling back again and closed today at $13.76. Two trades an up $4400 in a very short period of time and the money is in my hand and ready to go again. Why would anyone think it is two late to make a play now or even later. The problem lies in your mentallity towards what you're looking for. Most people are afraid to let go once they have the gains and afraid to get back in because they think it is to late once they are out. They have become prisoners of the stock and the position instead of them running the trade. What is the difference in being in from $6 to $10/12 or from $15 to 17.50/18 or $23.25/25.65. The real difference is in knowing exactly what you want and pursueing that goal and being happy with it once you have it. Then doing it all over again. MM does it in a different timeframe but once the target is hit it's done an over with an if the stock goes up another $50 after his exit then that's life but he's happy with accompolishing his target because he knew what he wanted out of it to start with and is satisfied with doing that. The price of the stock doesn't matter. What matters is the correct timing, if the setup is ready, and you have all the parts of your plan in order. Then being happy with that which most people aren't ready to do or accept.
The market gave us a gift today early in the morning. Spike mentioned it extensively an I mentioned stalking it yesterday. PETS spiked down to under $14 this morning presenting an unusual opportunity for an entry. I bought at $14.20 and $14.45. It closed today at $14.88. It topped out at $15.75 a couple of days ago an I'm looking for it to get back to at least that level and more. It's reporting eps either tomorrow or Monday so a close watch on it would be in order.

spikefader

12-29-2005, 02:30 AM

Greetings,
As someone who bought this at a gap support dip of $8.00,and sold for a measly 2% profit on fear,now I feel its too late to get back in.My 2k shares would be some nice money for someone in my income bracket.

Holding a winnner is my biggest weakness.BTW owned alot of PBT at 10.92 not long ago,sold way too soon.

cordially and happy New year to the crew,Tom
Hiya Tom.

You've prompted some thoughts that come to mind. Hope someone finds it helpful.

The best remedy for fear in trading is downsizing the allocation for the trade to the point of not caring about the financial aspect of it. I guarantee that you'll look at it differently; with less fear and more discipline. Get a discount broker like IB where commissions won't matter, trade ridiculously low share quantities, only for the best r/r plays you spot, be patient, be disciplined, and you'll be really able to leave fear at the door. Consider it an exercise in control and discipline. Set yourself the challenge to trade only setups with r/r of 10 or better, and be a stickler for perfection. If it doesn't act just perfectly, get out. Then repeat it over and over and over until you finally nail a perfect entry that moves fast for you, giving you the buffer to sit back, give it leash, forget the signals against you, with one rule in mind; stop to even, target your original r/r target you set. And in the meantime, while waiting for that target, exit ONLY when there is confirmed TA that screams bear. Sounds ridiculous, but honestly Tom, it will help you. You've identified the weakness yourself; fear. Take fear out of the equation and watch good discipline leap to the keyboard. Once you're on track and you're in the groove, THEN make them a bit larger in size, little by little, so you don't hardly notice it. The aim is to be in the groove trading size. And when you feel the fear creeping back in, drop the size again until it's gone.

As for targeting, personally, I think whether or not to hold a position in the face of short-term contra signals or patterns, and really look for an enormous move very much depends on the entry you get.

Those absolutely perfect entries that happen, with little or no immediate pain, but rather the entry was oh so easy and it moves fast in your favor...........now THEY are the ones to let run.

And for all the others; the ones that jump around, threaten your stop, not act right, THEY are the ones that need a shorter leash and it's proper to target or even exit conservatively.

Reastic targeting is pretty easy; spot the resistance, and target it. Upper channel on the weekly, gap way above, triangle or cup projection, 5th wave completion, whatever it is. Modify that target if there's reason to, and shorten it if there's reason to. And do it all without fear and regret. A controlled trade within the limits of realistic interpretation of both upside potential and downside risk managment is MUCH better than a trade filled with errors and misdirected or head and hand constricting fear.

See, when applied correctly, with the right bias, fear and hope can actually be constructive. It's putting the right spin on it that's the toughie for human beings. People fear at the wrong time, and hope at an even worse time. People fear losing profit, and hope losers will come back. What they should be doing is fearing the downside, and hoping for the upside. And the timed application of those emotions is critical. At time of entry fear of downside is crucial. When in red from entry, it gets even more important. But for some reason, fear is replaced by hope. Our silly heads and hearts go into denial and deceive us. And then when it's all good, and we're green, and we've got the great entry, fear replaces what should be hope. Fear of lost profits is what our brains fart out, instead of encouraging hope of success, and denial of little signals against us.

And it's ONLY by FORCING ourselves to direct that fear where we don't WANT to WHEN we don't want to do it, that we stand any chance of overcoming it. Wilfully saying NO, I'm not going to do that, I'm going to do this instead. Doing it over and over and over until finally, with the grace of a higher power and the faith that it really IS the right thing to do, that we can actually do it. It goes soooo much against the normal grain of human nature. But it can be done. Ain't easy, but it CAN be done. And if you can do it, then bing.....it's like a light going off in your head. Something just changes. Understanding is the reward; a little bit anyway. Understanding much more about ourselves, understanding of market participants and where fear and hope fit into support and resistance, a deeper understanding of the market and some of what drives it.

We should fear the DOWN side RISK from our entry, instead of being reckless or indifferent to it. We should do everything in our power to restrict the down side from our entry, NOT the upside from it. We should actively look for realistic and genuine troublesome reasons to exit soon after our entry, while it's still a budding seed, than to allow the seed to rapidly grow into a tree of complacency or hope to take root and lull us into a state of non-action and pathetic undisciplined frozeness.

I say let great entries and "green hope" for reasonable profit be the ones to actually take us to profitability ....and not poor entries, a bloodsoaked trade history, and a trading desk reeking of the "red hope" that poured from our skin for hours, days, weeks or months.

So yes, "green hope" is good, "red hope" is bad. "Red fear" is good, "green fear" is bad. Get it?! Cuz that sentence says a bunch. What we all WANT is to get the great entry, be saved from the anxiousness of "red fear" or worse, the hell of "red hope", granted the blessings of "green hope" and 'denial' of silly contra signal confustion, and happily get a stress-free ride to hugely profitable trades. That's what we WANT. What we GET more often than not is an ugly combination of the bad stuff, with faint glimmers of the good stuff. And it's only our impressive self discipline and clever exits that will save us from the bad stuff. That and good luck, special Vulcan powers, or the grace of God :D

See, if we can master the emotion, master the application of constructive fear and hope, and do all the rest; patient stalking of great r/r setups, applying the numbers, pressing the buttons at the right times, sitting idle when you feel like doing the wrong thing, admitting when you're wrong and taking our medicine, and accepting when you're right and waiting for the reward, and giving a great trade a great chance, and giving a bad trade no chance, and giving an uppercut when you deserve one.......do all THAT, and you're there. Do all THAT and those home runs WILL happen. It's just a matter of time, a matter of doing what doesn't come naturally, accepting those losses with gratitude, with a smile on your face, despite how the humans side of you is tempted to feel, a matter of quiet resolve and faith that it's only going to be truly over when the fat lady sings. And when she does your discipline and wisdom allows a healthy bottom line to buy that fat lady a drink when she's done.

Best to all.

skiracer

12-29-2005, 12:09 PM

ELN needs some kind of newsbreak of any positive nature right now otherwise all those anxious holders in from the mid $12.50 to $13 range are going to be bailing and waiting for the next news to hit the wires and then there will be another rush to get in. Although there may be another good buying entry coming up perhaps. Looks like there could be a small intraday SHS situation setting up. Stalking mode right now.

spikefader

12-29-2005, 12:26 PM

New preferred count. I think I bought the corrective 'a' and not the impulse 4.... I'm at risk of stopping out with a 'c' down.....considering action....

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/9171/elndec290th.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

12-29-2005, 01:56 PM

skiracer

12-29-2005, 03:06 PM

After pondering the ELN chart I've decided to hold it long. I got a great entry and will give it what it deserves. Stop remains at even and looking for a 'c' that doesn't breach the 'b' or my stop. If/when this 'c' long gets bought there could be a very very nice move people, so fasten seat belts :D

I thought earlier that we were going to get an intraday SHS pattern with a surge through the neckline but there just doesn't seem to be any interest in things today an it is just meandering around. I think we'll see it a bit lower before the end of the day today. There was that spike down to 13.43 earlier but at least that didn't hold and go farther.

Websman

12-29-2005, 04:06 PM

noshadyldy

12-30-2005, 09:45 AM

skiracer

12-30-2005, 10:08 AM

I closed half of my position at 13.65. I'll use that half to play ELN with. It's looking like I'll be able to buy back in at a lower price. :)

Still stalking for an entry...

This is much more fun when you're playing with the houses money! hahaha!

Now you'll make some more money with those gains at a cheaper entry price. I'm glad to see you sell half of it off.

New-born baby

12-30-2005, 10:35 AM

Now you'll make some more money with those gains at a cheaper entry price. I'm glad to see you sell half of it off.

Buy some puts and make some more dough.

sisterwin2

12-30-2005, 10:56 AM

Buy some puts and make some more dough.

I oh so want to try it....... I want to buy some Puts. This would be all new trading for me.

dena

skiracer

12-30-2005, 11:24 AM

I oh so want to try it....... I want to buy some Puts. This would be all new trading for me.

dena

Sisterwin
Before you go off and try something like fooling around with options you had better take a couple of online free seminars or tutorials. You really show have a good understanding on trading them and some basic knowledge on how they work and the risk involved. Try this site: www.cboe.com
They have an abundance of info regarding them and plenty or free tutorials dealing with options.

skiracer

12-30-2005, 11:29 AM

Buy some puts and make some more dough.

I don't see it going down enough to make it worthwhile making an options play with the puts. Maybe a few contracts as insurance. Spike had a pretty good idea awhile back on a straddle play which made sense. I think this is going to make another good buying entry on the long side. I'm stalking and waiting to see how far it will drop today. This week is shot and this afternoon is probably going to be boring with everyone getting out early for the holiday weekend.

sisterwin2

12-30-2005, 11:35 AM

Sisterwin
Before you go off and try something like fooling around with options you had better take a couple of online free seminars or tutorials. You really show have a good understanding on trading them and some basic knowledge on how they work and the risk involved. Try this site: www.cboe.com
They have an abundance of info regarding them and plenty or free tutorials dealing with options.

I know your right... I have been reading alot and just had to take a break. I get so overloaded that I have to let it settle in my brain for a bit. I will not jump in before I KNOW what I am doing. I took off today from work so I can sit and read while I am decided what to sell before the yr ends.

Looking at my port I have a few stocks that I only own 7 or 3 of. I have sold them while in need while out to sea in 2001 thru 2003. I am thinking about selling the rest that I have held over a year so I dont have to pay the big tax on them and start the yr 2006 with new knowledge that I have gain thru this site and my reading. I was wondering if others on this site have to buy such little amounts of stocks like I do, i.e, I norm only have about 500-1000 (every few months) bucks extra to play with at a time after I pay into my 401, house and boat payments? Let me see, I will start a new thread on this topic.

Happy new Yr all,

I really hate when the new yr comes around... hitting 50 yrs old on the 1st.

skiracer

12-30-2005, 11:51 AM

You're going to be 50 Jan.1,2006. Were you born near midnight for the first baby of the year award?

sisterwin2

12-30-2005, 11:55 AM

You're going to be 50 Jan.1,2006. Were you born near midnight for the first baby of the year award?

I was born at 12:07... first of hospital, 2nd in Baltimore. My parents got 2 yrs of free milk delivered to house. So that I could make life difficult for them, I was lactose intolerent as a child. hehhhee.... as my mother states. I continued like this for the next 18 yrs.

Dena

sisterwin2

12-30-2005, 11:58 AM

I closed half of my position at 13.65. I'll use that half to play ELN with. It's looking like I'll be able to buy back in at a lower price. :)

Still stalking for an entry...

This is much more fun when you're playing with the houses money! hahaha!

Are you saying that ELN will dip below your 6.whatever entry?

spikefader

12-30-2005, 12:00 PM

Spike,
when you speak of the SHS (and you will http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif ) oops just dated myself there,

do you refer to the one stating beginning of Dec, or the larger one beginning of November, where the SHS of Dec appear like bumps on the head?

If that is truly a larger SHS pattern starting in November, there could be quite the drop. Thoughts?
thanks.
mYep, the one with the pink 3 5 and 'b' in that previous chart. That one targets 10.80 and would stop me out. The neckline broke today, but it could be the 'c' that gets bought big time, breaks the SHS pattern, and we're off to another bullish 5 impulses, the fuel of which will be the fact that the SHS pattern failed. That's often good fuel. As I type I see bullish inverted SHS and impulses, so there's a chance the 'c' is in now.

Congrats on the profit Webs, good thing you held some for those bragging rights :D Honestly dude, I think you should keep a position in it until it gets to 60.00. It has the potential to be the trade of your life :) Print it out and put it on your wall. heh

As for puts, I wouldn't be buying any at this point. It's acting very very bullish people. The only way puts would make sense is if there is a solid 'c' long failure or some other price action/volume combo that destroys the charts. Right now, I think it's healthily climbing and worthy of trading long bias all the way to the gap fill. You want to buy puts, buy them on something vulnerable, like QSII or something really weak like GM. But just like every other trade, ya gotta time it well. Or yes Ski, a straddle would be great for sis's first option play. Something cheap, something with potential volatility either way, and that would provide some good experience as she watches and learns how premiums work, and the limitations (and advantages) of options. I agree with Ski, they need research and watching before trading. Put the option ticker in Quotetracker, along with the stock, and what how it trades, see the percentage moves, and how much you can make (and lose). But sis, don't be scared to trade options, but use them very very wisely. If you're exposed to a position and there is cause for concern, like with QSII, then buy out of the money puts that cost very little but allow you to sleep at night. Post the stock, the concern, the thoughts on which puts and why and I'll give you my opinion for what that's worth. Others here are a huge help too. The only dumb question is the one not asked. But options can be great vehicles to hedge, and many people never even learn what they are and remain heavily exposed in the market.

Anyway, back to ELN, the intraday SHS targets intraday R1 at 13.67. That'll be next resistance I think. It's above intraday pivot, so this is good.

People who were waiting for the 'c' long today, it was the break of that neckline at 13.41. That was the play. 2% risk for the big target gap fill. Nice r/r that.

sisterwin2

12-30-2005, 12:16 PM

Congrats on the profit Webs, good thing you held some for those bragging rights Honestly dude, I think you should keep a position in it until it gets to 60.00. It has the potential to be the trade of your life Print it out and put it on your wall. heh

thanks spike...... for a minute there I thought I was sooooooo far off track. I see ELN climbing to the 30's in the next 6 months. If it was going back to 6ish I was going to sink my boat and give up on trading forever.

spikefader

12-30-2005, 12:29 PM

thanks spike...... for a minute there I thought I was sooooooo far off track. I see ELN climbing to the 30's in the next 6 months. If it was going back to 6ish I was going to sink my boat and give up on trading forever.
lol ya, frustration will do that.

But seriously sister there's zero guarantee of ELN doing anything except what the market participants drive it to do. I'm bullish and will stay bullish until something significantly bearish happens to the chart, but I learnt a long time ago that any bullish chart pattern can turn into an ugly chart and hit every limb on the way down. If bad enough news hits a stock it can easily do that. So be flexible and fast to react. Otherwise hope can easily creep in. Right now there's 'green hope' for me, which is allowed. It's the 'red hope' you gotta watch out for.

sisterwin2

12-30-2005, 12:48 PM

lol ya, frustration will do that.

But seriously sister there's zero guarantee of ELN doing anything except what the market participants drive it to do. I'm bullish and will stay bullish until something significantly bearish happens to the chart, but I learnt a long time ago that any bullish chart pattern can turn into an ugly chart and hit every limb on the way down. If bad enough news hits a stock it can easily do that. So be flexible and fast to react. Otherwise hope can easily creep in. Right now there's 'green hope' for me, which is allowed. It's the 'red hope' you gotta watch out for.

I'm in at 10.90 with stops in place if fall to 12.80 right now. Love the ability to put stops in... have to work for living and cant sit at pc to watch all day. allows me to rest a bit.

spikefader

12-30-2005, 12:52 PM

OK, intraday I'm seeing we've done a 3 of 5 with a little abc entry for the 5th up. I'll do a chart. But anyone looking for an aggressive low risk entry, here is one, long here 13.67 with stop at 13.60 to target the 5th up.

spikefader

12-30-2005, 12:56 PM

http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/5161/elndec30intra4ab.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

12-30-2005, 02:37 PM

Kaboom :D

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/7926/elndec30boom6fx.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

12-30-2005, 02:53 PM

Today's action confirms the 'c' long on the daily is completed (see http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/9171/elndec290th.jpg).

Next opportunity to buy is the 5 min 'c' intraday long entry.

Watch it fly if it takes out that R shoulder on the 20-day SHS I referenced. The R shoulder high is 14.20. Breakout through that could be a very nice impulse

http://img518.imageshack.us/img518/7100/elnwavesdec307kp.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Websman

12-30-2005, 04:04 PM

skiracer

12-30-2005, 04:22 PM

I missed my chance to get back into ELN at a lower price, because I was at the hospital last night. My Neice broke her arm and had to have surgery to fix it. I may have missed that opportunity, but she's definetly more important than trading.

The good news is that I still hold enough shares to make this ride up lots of fun!

I missed it myself today. Was watching it on an off and left the office for a meeting around 2 pm when it was around $13.60 and didn't get back until 4 pm an it was at $13.93. There will be other opportunities, but today was a good one. LOD at $13.15. Would have been nice to enter anywhere above that on the reversal. I still think it is the momo guys pushing it. It'll be interesting to see what happens on Monday. Is the market open on Monday?
Spike had the neckline break on the SHS pinned down right on the money at around $13.67.

kingofthehill

01-03-2006, 01:20 PM

“The Wall at $14”; “People who have waited for the new tax year to sell are now doing so”; “Why the buyers step back”; “Chart shows major dive coming”; “We seem to have a hard time breaching and staying above 14”

What wall? The so-called “wall at $14” is only created by the specialists to fool most of the people some of the time, IMHO. To most folks, while the trading range of $13 to $14 since 12/15 seems to be stagnant, the wall at $14 overhead looms larger and larger. But to the selected few Chartists, they know that the wall at $14 had long been breached and the next price objective is $17.

How DID the wall at $14 break?

Since 12/15 while the chart has the look and feel of a “consolidation” in progress, a breakout had already occurred in terms of, you guess it, VOLUME. A total net BUY volume of 10,000,000 plus shares has been recorded during this so-called “consolidation” phase. No, it ain’t no consolidation. It spells ACCUMULATION with 10 millions plus shares staring at your face. According to the time-tested hypothesis of “Volume precedes price precedes news”, the wall at $14 had already been broken to the upside with plenty to spare.

Where does $17 come from? (Pease display the ELN chart using stockcharts.com)

Just take a look at the consolidation pattern from 12/15 to today. It has the look and feel of a flag formation, bound by $13-$14. What does a breakout from the flag of $13-14 imply? Answer: $17 in January/February! This is my calculation according to the pole-flag-pole measured move:

Price Target = previous pole length + breakout price at flag

Since the previous pole length is $3 (from $10 to $13 during 12/5 to 12/10), and the breakout price is $14, then

Price Target = $3 + $14 = $17

Addition supports to vaporize the wall at $14 myth are:

1. On the last day of 2005, ELN formed a long white candle. As I stated many times in the past, “Whenever a long white candle is formed, higher highs will immediately follow.” This is uniqueness in ELN’s chart and has NEVER failed.

2. Also, this long white candle is a classic “Bullish Engulfing” pattern. According to Candlestick Charting, when a long white candle completely engulfs (or contains within the open and close prices) the prior candle, it has bullish implications and immediate higher highs will follow.

3. During the so-called consolidation of $13-$14, major brokers and media such as Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and Forbes issued “SELL” recommendations repeatedly. Yet, according to volume analysis, the NET buy volume during the consolidating period was a whopping 10 million plus shares. This strongly suggests someone bought heavily while they badmouthed ELN.

What wall? There ain’t no wall.

$17 is a slam dunk, my friends.

Ask Michael. He knows.

Happy New Year to All.

DSteckler

01-03-2006, 01:43 PM

ELN was a Cooper 1-2-3-4 breakout today coming through Friday's high of 14.04.

spikefader

01-03-2006, 02:37 PM

lol King,
ya, what wall?!! Wall schmall! Get ready for the c long explosion is all I can say.

spikefader

01-03-2006, 10:55 PM

updated charts:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=34838&postcount=5827

kingofthehill

01-04-2006, 10:04 AM

http://www.forbes.com/2006/01/04/elan-biogen-tysabri-in_jd_0104gurusow_inl.html?partner=iaci&alias=/ht/nw

a MUST READ >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

kingofthehill

01-04-2006, 12:43 PM

Stock Of The Week
Loving Elan's Latest Comeback
John Dobosz, 01.04.06, 9:00 AM ET

Ken Kam, co-founder and chief executive officer of the amateur investor tracking and analysis service Marketocracy, recommends buying the American depositary receipts for shares of Irish biotechnology and drug delivery company Elan.

There are two ways to look at the performance of Elan’s ADRs in 2005: They were down 48.9% over the entire 12-month period, but they gained better than 365% off of their March 31 low of $3.00 per share. Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) closed Tuesday at $14.01.

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Elan lost nearly 90% of its value early in 2005 when it pulled multiple sclerosis treatment Tysabri off of the market in February after the deaths of two patients who had taken Tysabri in conjunction with another drug from Elan’s partner, Biogen Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ), and developed the rare but sometimes fatal brain disease, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML).

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Even after Elan has more than quadrupled in value in the past nine months, Ken Kam believes it’s still a good buy since, he says, Tysabri is coming back. On Nov. 17, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted Tysabri "priority review" status, which means that a decision on the drug’s return will be rendered within six months instead of the usual ten months.

Kam, who has a background as an entrepreneur and manager in the medical products industry, says two factors that should help Tysabri are that no patients taking just Tysabri came down with PML, and that existing drugs to fight multiple sclerosis don’t work for 25% of MS patients. For those 100,000 or so patients in the U.S., Kam says Tysabri can greatly improve their quality of life.

These facts, according to Kam, mean that there is no good reason to withhold Tysabri from this group of patients. He says the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will use this as their justification for returning Tysabri to the market as a monotherapy with a big "black box" warning about the risk of PML on the label.

“Wall Street is beginning to agree that Tysabri will return, but Merril Lynch and Citibank both recently reiterated their sell recommendations, both citing their belief that Tysabri will be hard to sell to physicians and MS patients until the risks of PML are better understood,” says Kam, who views the pessimism as a buying opportunity, especially in light of heavy “tax-motivated” selling toward the end of last month by people who held it early in 2005 and have “huge losses.”

“Lets look at Tysabri from the perspective of MS patients,” says Kam. “For the 100,000 that are not on any MS medication right now, the choice boils down to this: Tysabri can cut your risk of relapse by 50% without making you feel as if you always have the flu. There is a 0.1% risk of contracting PML if you use Tysabri in combination with other immunosuppressive drugs, but so far, no cases of PML have turned up in patients who took Tysabri alone. To put this risk in perspective, a recent study showed that the mortality risk for aspirin is 0.2%. So an MS patient who is comfortable with the risks of taking aspirin, ought to be comfortable with the risk of taking Tysabri.

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“Wall Street expects that Tysabri sales to these patients will be a slow ramp, but, if only 25,000 of them start to use Tysabri, they would generate over $600 million a year of sales, 50% of which would go to Elan,” says Kam, who also sees potential for treating the other 300,000 MS patients in the U.S. with Tysabri.

“One of the common side effects of competing drugs is constant flu-like symptoms. If you caught the flu this winter, you know how miserable it can be. Imagine how it would affect your life if you had the flu all the time. That is what life is like for many of these 300,000 MS patients. An important fact I noted from the clinical trial data and interviews with MS patients is that Tysabri does not seem to give MS patients these same flu-like symptoms.

“For this reason, many of the other 300,000 MS patients who endure these flu-like symptoms may switch to Tysabri, even if it means they have to stop taking their current drugs. If 10% of these patients switch to Tysabri, it would mean an additional 30,000 MS patients that Wall Street is not counting on. So, the potential market for Tysabri may be more than twice as big as Wall Street is expecting,” says Kam, who adds that he is beginning to hear of MS patients on existing therapies who have stopped dosage to clear their bodies in time for Tysabri’s likely release date in the early spring.

“The FDA granted Tysabri a priority review, so a decision is due by March 26, 2006,” says Kam. “We'll see soon enough whether Wall Street is right. If I'm right, Wall Street is in for a big upside surprise.”

doctor_j

01-04-2006, 01:09 PM

Hi everyone,

Just joined the blog and find it an absolutely great read! I am very new to the stock market so apologies for any stupidities you will find in my posts. I hope to start my lessons from the pros on this blog!

I like ELN very much and just recently took a position which is why I am posting my unrelated 1 cent here. Apologies if this is out of place but I thought the neuro-disease connection would be fitting.

Just wanted to trigger some discussion around a other stocks with neuro-biotech focus: Memory Pharmaceuticals (MEMY) and NeoPharm (NEOL).

MEMY has a very interesting pipeline of innovative drugs with huge potential. They only completed phase I for the lead drug (only safety) so still a lot of unknowns around whether the drug works. Theoretically it should. Management team seems to be very strong with a lot of neuro-pharm experience. The big magnet for me was the insider trading which showed millions of shares purchased by insiders in 09/05. Am I reading too much into this fact?

NEOL has one very exciting drug for the nastiest kind of brain tumor which kills 90% of people. They are now recruiting for their Phase III study and phase II was very promising (twice as many people survived as with the active comparator - Gliadel). Stock recently jumped on the good news from phase II and my sense they might soon be acquired.

Any thoughts?

Dr J

skiracer

01-04-2006, 03:03 PM

Runner

01-04-2006, 04:51 PM

Have a plan and trade it. No where you’ll get out before ya get in.

Runner

01-04-2006, 04:54 PM

skiracer

01-04-2006, 06:28 PM

Looks as if I got out of this one prematurely. It came within .2 of my stop. Heck I could have left it open went on vacation and still been in it with a little profit. Oh well we live with the decisions we make.

I think you're going to have a few more opportunities to get back in an out yet. I've been in an out twice over the last 3 weeks and missed the 3rd entry on the SHS move that Spike called out last Friday. I wasn't impressed with it yesterday or today being that it didn't have the strength to hold the move either day. I think we see it go under $14 again. I would love to see $13.75 for an entry. If you look at the daily you'll see a small ascending triangle forming so it could go off but I'm thinking down first. My own feelings are that the hedge fund and momo guys are playing with it knowing that everyone now thinks there is a strong possibility that the drug will ge re-instated soon and everyone wants to be in the stock when an if that happens. This is providing them a great opportunity to force the issue, get the retail guys back in and sell off into strength. Yesterday and today were prime examples of that type of play.

Runner

01-04-2006, 07:00 PM

Ski, notice how ELN seems to move in 3’s. Up 3 days down 3 days. Not sur if it means anything though..Almost has a bear flag look to it
http://img353.imageshack.us/img353/251/eln9cq.png

spikefader

01-04-2006, 07:40 PM

Hi Doctor.

Big welcome to ya!

Good luck with the ELN trade.

Don't like either of MEMY and NEOL sorry to say. Poor money flow right now, but I'm picky. But they got things going for them; MEMY runaway gap potential and NEOL at support. But I like a whole lot more than that. With so many good looking charts out there why risk playing with the weak ones ya know. Anyway, give us a heads up if they show some clear strength over several months!

Hey ski, I agree that lower prices may be offered. Not liking that double top area; never do! heh But I feel better about holding on when I look at the weekly. I think stop to even and let the market decide if I have to work hard again to get another entry. I want that gap fill. I DON'T want to bail just cuz there's a hurdle to jump over. I got green hope ya know! hehe I think my 'a' correction entry is safe and I don't feel like missing a gap n run move should one happen along the way.

doctor_j

01-05-2006, 04:58 AM

Thanks for your responses, spikefader, ski, runner. Guess the doctor in me looks too much into what might be and not what is.
As a side, which software do you use for looking at money flow?

kingofthehill

01-05-2006, 05:53 AM

Spike from the yahoo message board on ELN ..what is your take ..is this guy correct ..it does sound great

A New Year Gift!
by: teadowner 01/04/06 11:32 pm
Msg: 869598 of 869690

Today, I would like to send a New Year gift to all the ELN diehards. But before I unveil the gift, I would like to level set with you in what we have accomplished thus far:

For the last several months, we have come across several tools that allow us Chartists to “see” the future price of ELN. I know that there are beaucoup skeptics out there who insist upon that T/A could only reflect the past and not the future. Let’s call a spade a spade and review the past performance of these alleged “future seeing” tools:

Tool #1.

“Volume precedes price precedes news” has been proven to be correct time and time again. Enough said.

Tool # 2.

“Whenever a long white candle occurs, higher highs will follow” is 100% in 2005. I rest my case.

Tool # 3.

“Whenever a divergence exists between the volume and the price, a re-synchronization will occur to eliminate this divergence” has been perfect in 2005.

By now you should have known what to expect as a New Year gift from a Chartist.

Another tool of course! Here we go…..

Tool # 4.

Question: What is da missing link between the trading days on 8/25, 11/11, 11/14, 11/15, 12/7, 12/8, 12/9 and 12/13?

Answer: Huge Net Buy Volumes (NBV)! The numbers were 2.4M, 2.5M, 3.5M, 3.6M, 3.6M, 3.3M, 2.7M and 4.4M shares.

Question: What follows these huge NBV numbers?

Answer: A minimum price surge of 10%! No exceptions. Therefore, Tool #4 states:

“Whenever a net buy volume of 2.4M or more shares occurs, a minimum price surge of 10% or more will follow.”

BTW, didn’t we have a NBV of 2.9M shares today? I wonder what that means.

Place your bets my friends.

I stated several times before that I couldn’t tell the difference between double blind and double talk (vividly demonstrated by ML and Citigroup). But via data mining and patterns recognition, I begin to find logical explanations to what has happened and what will happen to the volume and price using T/A.

IMHO, the above PROVEN tools should allow darrellamello and other Chartists to “see” the future pps of ELN with ease. Please feel free to use them to your advantage. Should anyone still have doubts and want to argue, bash, smear or diminish the value of T/A, simply put me to IGNORE and get lost.

Best regards

PS.Monstrous thought: I “see” snowballing effect straight ahead when Tool #1 or #4 triggers the completion of the pole-flag-pole pattern to $17. Then a 50% filling of the BM gap to $18.25 will be within easy reach. After that, with zero technical resistance, a 100% filling of the BM gap to $26.75 will be a cake walk, IMHO.

PPS.What about news? Who cares! It is only an alibi for the already-occurred volume and price moves and an excuse for the so-called analysts in writing up their trash to justifying their obscene salaries.

skiracer

01-05-2006, 08:29 AM

Ski, notice how ELN seems to move in 3’s. Up 3 days down 3 days. Not sur if it means anything though..Almost has a bear flag look to it
http://img353.imageshack.us/img353/251/eln9cq.png

Runner,
It was that daily chart that I though was developing a small ascending triangle. As far as I can see the only engine driving ELN is the strengthening possibility of the re-instatement of Tysaribi. Fundamentally there is nothing else there right now to give support to why anyone should own the stock. But the belief that Tysaribi is going to be re-instated for use is what is causing all of the interest in the stock right now.
In my opinion those step patterns are the daytraders, momo guys, and anyone else in a myriad of players who are in an out of this stock of late driving it up an as more retail guys get in they sell off into that strength leaving the retail guys holding their positions. The luckier ones are the ones who are in from much lower levels and are holding steady while the others in anywhere from $13.50 are indecisive as to what to do not wanting to lose out on the possibility of another great newsbreak which would drive the stock up even further. This is just the way I see the play developing an if I'm wrong then I'm wrong. If you can devise a strategy to play these peaks and valleys and time it the right way you could profit or you could just buy in at these levels now an hold on in the hope that the drug gets re-instated at some time in the near term.

kingofthehill

01-05-2006, 09:31 AM

2 trades were posted yesterday of 750k each $14.40..thats not retail ...lol

spikefader

01-05-2006, 10:55 AM

Thanks for your responses, spikefader, ski, runner. Guess the doctor in me looks too much into what might be and not what is.
As a side, which software do you use for looking at money flow?I look at stockcharts daily charts with Chaikin Money Flow on them, and I also like Money Flow Index on a 20-day hourly candle chart that quotetracker has for their historical charts, which are actually provided by future source here

http://charts.prophet.net/servlet/ChartServer?symbol=qqqq&width=500&height=550&price.display=3&duration=20d&interval=60&price.scale=0&VOL=&hideevents=1&barsofar=1&PSAR=,,&MFI=,,&scheme=blugray&snapquote=1&service=ProphetSnapCharts&scsave=1&randomize=1.3544682093972942

spikefader

01-05-2006, 11:12 AM

Spike from the yahoo message board on ELN ..what is your take ..is this guy correct ..it does sound great
...allow us Chartists to “see” the future price of ELN...
...higher highs will follow” is 100% in 2005.......
...re-synchronization will occur to eliminate this divergence” has been perfect in 2005.
....Whenever a net buy volume of 2.4M or more shares occurs, a minimum price surge of 10% or more will follow.
...Place your bets my friends...
..I begin to find logical explanations to what has happened and what will happen to the volume and price using T/A...
....“see” the future pps of ELN with ease....
...a 100% filling of the BM gap to $26.75 will be a cake walk, IMHO...
... justifying their obscene salaries...
hehe I'm a skeptic on most of what is written, especially the "see the future" and this "will happen" descriptions. It's hype, and probably inaccurate. If there ever were a truth to this business, it is tht NOTHING is a sure bet. Holy Grail hunters are wasting their time. System developers are not as far as finding great systems that have potential to be profitable if used by disciplined people. Yes, there are very high probability winning systems out there. Yes, they make great money. But betting the house on that system being 100% correct is a mistake and it's just a matter of time before the user gets bitten and blows up their account.

So to answer your question is this guy correct??? I think he's on the money about that ELN gap filling, I think his bullish bias is correct....for now..and I'll think that way until the chart says otherwise. On his system???.....his own observation of "I begin to find logical explanations" is probably the most accurate thing he said. There are logical explanations to most things, and a system can embody that concept and define and display an edge. But r/r and management makes the true difference.
So for anyone looking to play ELN long, continue to stalk it, find those great r/r setups, and execute 'em to get in, and set your risk according to your tolerance.

Oh, and go ELN! :D

spikefader

01-05-2006, 11:15 AM

2 trades were posted yesterday of 750k each $14.40..thats not retail ...lolBuy signal on one of my favorite system triggers fwiw.
http://img490.imageshack.us/img490/1416/elnjan5208bz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

dmk112

01-05-2006, 11:31 AM

spike, the trigger is the 1st dot that appeared today?

spikefader

01-05-2006, 11:39 AM

spike, the trigger is the 1st dot that appeared today?oh no, it's when MFI hits 70 during a bullish PSAR. That is the trigger, which was yesterday's open/whenever that first 70 reading was delivered.

dmk112

01-05-2006, 11:53 AM

Spike, how do you define a bullish PSAR?

spikefader

01-05-2006, 12:13 PM

Spike, how do you define a bullish PSAR?Those red dots under price is bullish psar. When the dots flip to above price, it's starting a fresh bearish psar trend. So yesterday you can see the dots had been under price for 3 days...so the trend for those 3 days was bullish. But MFI didn't hit 70 until yesterday, so that's when the buy signal is. The concept is you want to be buying into a trend when money is flowing into it.

dmk112

01-05-2006, 12:21 PM

I C, thanks spike.

skiracer

01-05-2006, 01:27 PM

2 trades were posted yesterday of 750k each $14.40..thats not retail ...lol

King,
Not knocking you, anyone, or the stock. Only commenting on how I see this thing. I made $4400 on those 1st two trades in less than 2 wks. I'd be a hypocrite to badmouth the stock. I stated it was just my opinion an I could be right or I could be way off base with my comments. One thing for sure is that I will be back in an out of this stock again when I think the setup is right for me. Never intended to upset anyone. Just giving my opinion and certainly not making any calls one way or another. Really do believe the stock will fill that gap or most of it eventually and I will be on that boat.

dmk112

01-05-2006, 03:23 PM

spikefader

01-05-2006, 04:19 PM

How can you (or can you) use it for sell signals?You bet you can. Bearish PSAR with MFI that hits 30.

As with everything, r/r setups and discipline management cuz no system is perfect. But check out the stocks that move nicely and you'll see that 20-day characteristic about many/most of them. I wonder how they'd go with MM picks?! Someone should start at thread! lol

skiracer

01-05-2006, 10:03 PM

I think tomorrow I'll be looking for an entry. Let's see if it will drop a bit more first.

dmk112

01-05-2006, 10:09 PM

ELN almost looks like an anscending triangle now

skiracer

01-05-2006, 10:14 PM

ELN almost looks like an anscending triangle now

On the daily. I mentioned that yesterday in a reply to a post by Runner.
I'll be watching it real close tomorrow. What I don't like is that over the past few days the momo guys have been pushing it up in the mornings and then selling off into any strength in the afternoon. I'd like to see $13.75 but I have my doubts. I like it for tomorrow, but will wait to see which way the wind blows.

dmk112

01-05-2006, 10:20 PM

On the daily. I mentioned that yesterday in a reply to a post by Runner.
I'll be watching it real close tomorrow. What I don't like is that over the past few days the momo guys have been pushing it up in the mornings and then selling off into any strength in the afternoon. I'd like to see $13.75 but I have my doubts. I like it for tomorrow, but will wait to see which way the wind blows.

Sorry dude, I can't keep up with all the posts anymore! It's nuts! haha

13.65-13.85 would be nice.

skiracer

01-05-2006, 10:51 PM

Sorry dude, I can't keep up with all the posts anymore! It's nuts! haha

13.65-13.85 would be nice.

DMK,
Are you considering an entry?

Websman

01-05-2006, 11:00 PM

I'll add back to my ELN position if it drops back to 13.40.

dmk112

01-05-2006, 11:10 PM

DMK,
Are you considering an entry?

Yeps............

spikefader

01-05-2006, 11:26 PM

Sorry dude, I can't keep up with all the posts anymore! It's nuts! haha...lol I hear ya. What's going on! lol
I need a vacation...

spikefader

01-05-2006, 11:26 PM

ELN almost looks like an anscending triangle nowYuppers...

http://img425.imageshack.us/img425/9725/elnjan54ef.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

spikefader

01-06-2006, 01:12 AM

Nice! I like P&F hehe:D

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=eln,pstadanrbo%5 Bpa%5D%5Bd20060105%5D%5Bf1%213%21%21%212%2120%5D&pnf=y

kingofthehill

01-06-2006, 08:19 AM

Healthy wealthy and wise
Elan
Tysabri looks set for Q2 re-launch. Considerable upside in Elan story.

Although Elan is for now a Tysabri-specific story, the pipeline opportunity in Alzheimers Disease (AD) may become more tangible as we progress through 2006. Elan has been working with Wyeth on an innovative AD research programme since 2000. The programme is based on the scientific hypothesis that beta amyloid is a key factor in the development of AD. As such, drugs that target beta amyloid plaques may alter progression of the disease itself rather than providing symptomatic treatment. Two
products from this collaboration are currently in the clinic at Phase I and Phase II. During 2006, Elan/Wyeth will look for signals that are strong enough to propel both products into their next respective phases.

In the meantime, Tysabri remains in the hands of the regulatory agencies. The granting of priority review status in November 2005 underpins the fact that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) still considers Tysabri to be a very important drug in the MS space. This is the first step in a regulatory pathway which could mean Tysabri being re-launched in the US market by early Q2 2006. Our forecast re-launch of mid-2006 looks comfortable in this context.

We still think it likely that an advisory panel meeting will be convened during the review process. Given the notice that needs to be provided by the FDA to Elan and BiogenIdec on this, such a meeting would occur sometime in Q1 2006. In product-specific terms, the agencies must assess patient safety against patient choice, a balance we continue to believe falls in favour of the product's return.

Watch for Alzheimers newsflow at Elan.
We continue to use our revenue-based sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model as the primary method to assess valuation – this generates a target of just over 1300c (issued August 9th 2005; previously 870c, issued May 29th 2005) based on a Tysabri re-launch that meets our peak target of $1.6bn in revenues. There is considerable potential upside to this target for 2006, supplied by strong momentum on Tysabri and by progress in the AD programme.

Irish stock brokerage DAVY report on Elan

dmk112

01-06-2006, 12:11 PM

Looks like it won't be coming back down and breaking out already, I'm tempted to chase here.

spikefader

01-06-2006, 12:19 PM

Looks like it won't be coming back down and breaking out already, I'm tempted to chase here.Well on the daily you'd be buying during what I think is a 3 impulse up. Intraday there is 5 completion now and the abc might get back down to 14.50 R1 now support.... But shoo, if you do it, make your risk small, cuz that temptation to chase might bite if the 'c' fails.

spikefader

01-06-2006, 01:51 PM

...the abc might get back down to 14.50 R1 now support....'c' long off the intraday waves was 14.55.

Websman

01-06-2006, 04:04 PM

I'm glad I only trimmed my position and didn't sell out. :)

Let the profits keep rolling in!

YEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

dmk112

01-09-2006, 12:30 AM

Those red dots under price is bullish psar. When the dots flip to above price, it's starting a fresh bearish psar trend. So yesterday you can see the dots had been under price for 3 days...so the trend for those 3 days was bullish. But MFI didn't hit 70 until yesterday, so that's when the buy signal is. The concept is you want to be buying into a trend when money is flowing into it.

SPIKE,

Your system interested me so I decided to work on it a bit. I programmed those little dots that you see on the bottom, they appear when certain conditions are met with the PSAR and the MFI. This allows for easy spotting of buy signals (or sells). Where you see the dots circled in the chart is where the MFI is starting to trend and PSAR is bullish. They turn different colors depending where the MFI is, which is helpful by giving you a warning that a buy signal may come, when MFI hits 70 and PSAR is bullish, a bright green dot appears.

I'm still tweaking it but I wanted to see what you (or anyone else) thinks. From the chart for ELN it looks like it is quite successful. The 1st buy signal you see there (1st bright green dot starting from the left) came quite before the initial breakout.... Interesting?

http://img477.imageshack.us/img477/182/autotempelncandle3m10d1d200601.png

spikefader

01-09-2006, 01:10 AM

dmk112

01-09-2006, 09:06 AM

That's pretty cool dmk. Have you noticed whether the system is robust across most time frames?

I do like the hourly candles, but I suppose it would on momo stocks with say a 3 min like the one you show.

The chart you see is a daily. The "3M10D" is the length of the period. I checked the weekly and the signal continue al the way through but doesn't trigger as early. As far as hourly or minute charts I only have the ability to check it on intraday across only 5 days, I'm trying to figure out if I can do it for more days.

dmk112

01-09-2006, 09:19 AM

Here's the hourly for the last 5 days (I removed the PSAR and MFI indicators and just left the custom indicator so it's easier to see).

Looks like the buy signal came last friday(12/31) and we could of rode it until the PSAR turned bearish, almost a point out of the trade - what do you think? The friday that just passed (1/6), the MFI turned up, hence the dark green dot formed.

http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/7453/elncandleall60m200601090919022.png

spikefader

01-10-2006, 03:31 PM

ELN: a little 3 day ascending triangle is there now, and breakout targets 15.60. It's working on a channel turn up today too. If it closes like that, there's the green light for the intraday pivot buy tomorrow. I'm sure there's folks lookin' for an entry, and that's the next one I see, unless you like today's intraday 'c' long at 14.61 with a 0.75% stop. That's pretty nice....

spikefader

01-10-2006, 03:34 PM

dmk112

01-10-2006, 03:48 PM

dmk, that's interesting stuff. I politely call on you to post every single buy signal for ELN with that system until you either lose interest or it become obvious that the system sucks! hehe or if people boo you off the stage. lol

Spike, I'm still refining it. But just glanced on the daily of ELN and the buy signal is holding from 1/04 and a fresh buy signal today again.

Should finish it tonite.

Websman

01-10-2006, 04:15 PM

I'm still holding my half position and feeling very good about it. :)

spikefader

01-10-2006, 04:30 PM

intraday buy setup was this one:
http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/3039/elnjan10clong9vl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Websman

01-10-2006, 04:32 PM

intraday buy setup was this one:
http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/3039/elnjan10clong9vl.jpg (http://imageshack.us/)

That won't work for me. I need an entry at $12. lol

kingofthehill

01-11-2006, 10:28 AM

$15.30 nice real nice ...give me a chart

noshadyldy

01-11-2006, 10:36 AM

$15.30 nice real nice ...give me a chart

I dare say it again....

KAAAAAA CHINGGG!

kingofthehill

01-11-2006, 01:01 PM

spikefader

01-11-2006, 01:20 PM

That won't work for me. I need an entry at $12. lol$12.00!! It's never going back to $12.00! LOL -- I'm just kidding, because anything could happen.

However, that's below my "a" entry, and I highly doubt that I will get taken out now that we are getting impulsive off of a "c" long entry.

If I were you, webs (and anyone else for that matter), I would wait until the next impulse correction down. It looks as though we are in a 1 impulse up with sub waves, so look for the 2, 4, a, and c entries ever coming weeks. Or you could get aggressive, and chase the next channel turn up. You have missed the one I recently posted about.

I'm just shy of +23% today, and holding fast with green hope and a stop to even! :-)

spikefader

01-11-2006, 01:29 PM

Whenever a net buy volume of 2.4M or more shares occurs, a minimum price surge of 10% or more will follow."

Tool #4 is once again proven to be right on da money today.

Who says that the Chartists could not "see" the future?

I saw it.

SPIKE DO YOU AGREE???????haven't I already answer this one? :-) Seriously I hate being a skeptic, but there are always exceptions to a blanket rule such as this one. I prefer my methods for deciding on good risk reward entries rather than simply waiting for a high-volume day and hoping I get a 10% move in my favor
lol

Hiya noshady!! Good to see those big green letters! Keep up the good work! lol

Runner

01-11-2006, 02:39 PM

SPIKE,

Your system interested me so I decided to work on it a bit. I programmed those little dots that you see on the bottom, they appear when certain conditions are met with the PSAR and the MFI. This allows for easy spotting of buy signals (or sells). Where you see the dots circled in the chart is where the MFI is starting to trend and PSAR is bullish. They turn different colors depending where the MFI is, which is helpful by giving you a warning that a buy signal may come, when MFI hits 70 and PSAR is bullish, a bright green dot appears.

I'm still tweaking it but I wanted to see what you (or anyone else) thinks. From the chart for ELN it looks like it is quite successful. The 1st buy signal you see there (1st bright green dot starting from the left) came quite before the initial breakout.... Interesting?

http://img477.imageshack.us/img477/182/autotempelncandle3m10d1d200601.png
DMK, awesome call on ELN!!

Websman

01-11-2006, 04:53 PM

I'm just shy of +23% today, and holding fast with green hope and a stop to even! :-)

I'm just shy of 130%, and holding fast with pointy Vulcan ears! BWAAAAAAHAHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! YEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

I may only have a half position left, but it's still a good sized position. HAHAHA!!! I knew ELN would make me a killing! WHOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

HAAAAAAAAHAHAHAA....HA...uh... Haha...errr....uhhh...excuse me...I mean... It's logical that I've done so well. My profits are not bad.

kingofthehill

01-12-2006, 07:16 AM

ok guy and girls this is the real deal big push before approval.. time to load up ..and then take some profits after approval..

congrats all we are on the verge of greatness, JP morgan talk like they loved us Tuesday...after they load up they will tell the world...

you can listen to the first 2 mins of the JP MORGAN call

www.tixx.com/elan.htm

Websman

01-12-2006, 10:55 AM

It looks like ELN is holding over $16 so far.

noshadyldy

01-12-2006, 11:53 AM

ELN just loves to fill those gaps!

Websman

01-12-2006, 11:56 AM

ELN just loves to fill those gaps!

I expected it to fill the gap. Now, let's watch it go!

Websman

01-13-2006, 09:55 AM

Todays drop may give a good buying opportunity.

ParkTwain

01-13-2006, 12:19 PM

In today's Yahoo news:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/060113/153588.html
"The Market's Most Overvalued Stocks" (Morningstar)

//
Elan ADR
Price/fair value ratio: 533%
From the Analyst Report: "Elan is a broken company desperately trying to fix itself. Its success requires Tysabri's return to the market, but even then, the company faces an uphill path to become cash flow positive (let alone stay that way). We have incorporated some of the risks into our fair value estimate, but we would still require a hefty margin of safety before investing."
//

noshadyldy

01-13-2006, 12:33 PM

Doesn't surprise me. I was waiting for a news release that would bring ELN's price down. It was predictable to say the least. If it works, watch all the institutions fill their pouches like Squirrels at an all you can eat buffet.

Websman

01-13-2006, 12:44 PM

noshadyldy

01-13-2006, 12:46 PM

Truer words were never spoken. I think I'm in love with your brain Noshady!

lolololol! Pucker up Webs, sending a big juicy your way!

kingofthehill

01-13-2006, 01:26 PM

Spike your the KING,

great trade on the Feb 20's

you kicked ass they are worth 80 cents!!!!! now

ok time for you to pick another option play

kingofthehill

01-13-2006, 04:28 PM

From the Fundamentalist: "Elan is a broken company desperately trying to fix itself. Its success requires Ty's return to the market...one of the most overvalued stocks."

From the Chartist: “Buy with your eyes closed because of record Net Buy Volume!”

Who will be the BIG winner in a month or two? We’ll let the Market tell us.

The Fundamentalist often analyzes balance sheets without realizing that they had been doctored, skewed and tailored to fit the needs of the management. Where were these keen-eyed pencil-pushers when their Outperform company ENRON went under?

The Chartist analyzes the past patterns of the volume and price movements and tries to use statistical analysis to arrive at a probable outcome in the future. The Chartist leaves no stones unturned in finding correlations between volume, price and other events such as long white candle, divergences, velocity, momentum, gaps, money flow, MAs, MACD, OBV, NBV, NSV, short interests, presidential cycle, January effect and even the Gann’s Angles linking to the slope of the Chartist’s giant erection.

Why is Teadowner becoming bullish in ELN? Here is his little secret:

From 8/16 to 9/15, the NBV was 9.60M shares.
From 9/16 to 10/14, the NBV was 1.88M shares.
From 10/17 to 11/18, the NBV was 17.08M shares.
From 11/21 to 12/16, the NBV was 37.85M shares.
From 12/19 to 1/20, the NBV has been 31.20M shares. (With 4 more days to go)

Now, please print the following chart and try to link the NBV and pps together:

….hXXp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ELN,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUg!La12,26,9]&pref=G

From 8/16 to 9/15, the pps was flat between $8-$9. But the NBV rose to 9.6M shares, giving us a buy signal 2 full months BEFORE the breakout at $9.25.

From 9/16 to 10/14, the pps was still stagnant and the NBV slightly improved while the general market crashed to an October low.

From 10/17 to 11/18, the pps was still between $8-$9. But the NBV soared to 17.08M shares, almost 2X the previous high and thus giving us a second buy signal right BEFORE the breakout at $9.25.

From 11/21 to 12/16, the pps broke out to $14 plus as predicted by the previous NBV. In spite of heavy profit taking, new media bad-mouthing and major broker’s panning, the NBV rocketed to 37.85M shares, again 2 X the previous high. This NBV gave us yet another buy signal almost 1 full month BEFORE breaking out again at $14.25 while the fundamentalist screamed “overbought”.

From 12/19 to 1/20, with 4 more days to go, the pps has already broken out to recovery high of $16.36. The NBV stands at 31.20M shares, giving us chartists yet another buy signal, even though fundamentalist Westfield Capital threw in their hanky (not towels) by unloading 2M shares.

From the above, it becomes crystal clear that NBV always leads the pps. No exceptions! Yesterday, the NBV with a record one-day surge of 8.3M shares gave us a buy signal at $16.05. Do you want to bet against it?

Lastly, by sharing his little secret and providing his trading tools (4 in total), Teadowner therefore becomes expendable. All Chartist are welcome to use these tools and make independent decisions regarding Elan and other stocks. He has better things to do elsewhere than staring at the screen.

With a whopping NBV of 95.61M shares since August, what us worried?

Good luck to all.

PS. From the above chart…Q: What happened to the pps whenever OBV hit new highs or whenever the thick MACD line crossed the thin line to the upside or whenever a long white candle appeared? T/A only reflecting the past is total BS!

PPS. Morningstar has many blind followers. Today’s early NSV numbers said so. However a late day reversal from negative NSV to positive NBV of 1.61M shares indicates that volume speaks louder than the trash designed to shake the tree hard (about 400,000 shares fell for it this morning). Will scumbag Krasn

kingofthehill

01-15-2006, 08:57 AM

SPike what does the chart say?

spikefader

01-15-2006, 12:07 PM

Spike your the KING,
great trade on the Feb 20's
you kicked ass they are worth 80 cents!!!!! now
ok time for you to pick another option play

Cool! That reminds me; I was going to revisit the straddle(strangle) play from late Dec and see how it went. I'll search for the post now...

spikefader

01-15-2006, 12:20 PM

.....Long 7.50 strike Feb puts for $0.20
Long 20.00 strike Feb calls for $0.20
.....Say you buy 10 of each; it costs you $200 for the calls, $200 for the puts, add your commission of $20 (only one way cuz if they don't move you won't pay to sell 'em, and if it does move then you won't care about the 20 bucks exit fee haha). So all up, the play costs you $420......Let's see how it pans out; I'll revisit those quotes in a month or so...

OK, I see those 7.50 strike puts are still trading at 0.05x0.10, so if you hit the bid you'll get 50 bucks for the puts and the 20 strike calls traded up to 80c on Friday, so got as good as +800 bucks for them. Total of +$850, which is +$450 or roughly 112% return on the play in 3 weeks.

$1 a side commissions at a broker like IB drop that by 40 bucks, but still a very neat little return considering the outlay and the fact it was a hedged play....

And frankly, you'd be crazy to exiting this play yet. With still 5 weeks til expiry and ELN acting impulsively, and volume coming in, and good upside target, you'd be holding this one with stop to even and see what the market gives you.

I'll check back in on the quotes in a few weeks...

I'll do a chart now, and see where we're up to with the count.

spikefader

01-15-2006, 12:28 PM

SPike what does the chart say?OK, here it is. I think people looking to get on board would be wise to bid low for a lower black 4 entry to catch black 5 and pink 3 completion, take profits early and THEN look to re-enter at pink 4 completion to catch the 5th up, or just wait for the pink abc to come in a couple weeks. The problem with buying 4s is your chances of stopping out after a nice impulse and quick profit increases. Take the impulse, step aside and look for a 2, a, or c entry. They are the good ones. I think the c is THE best, followed by the 2. The others you have to be nimble with.

http://img446.imageshack.us/img446/4581/elnjan153no.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

kingofthehill

01-16-2006, 07:30 AM

there has not been any value given to Elans Alzheimer's disease vaccine drug since 2002 when the stock was $60.00..that seems to be changing rather quickly

Élan $16.02 BUY

Alzheimer’s Disease Research Gathers Pace
• In a Reuters interview on Friday Wyeth’s head of Neurology discovery said that the
company intends to expand on the number of Alzheimer’s disease products in clinical
development with Élan co-developing one of the Alzheimer’s products expected to
enter the clinic this year.
• Élan currently has two Alzheimer’s disease products in clinical trials with Wyeth as a
co-development partner. AAB-001 (a monoclonal antibody) and ACC-001 (an
immunoconjugate) are in Phase II and Phase I clinical trials respectively with Wyeth
expecting AAB-001 to receive FDA approval “as soon as 2009”. This would appear an
ambitious timeline with Phase II efficacy and safety data on AAB-001 not expected
until later in 2006/early 2007.
• To date no clinical data is available for AAB-001 and we have not factored in a material
contribution from this drug to our current assessment. Should data emerge that this
product can slow Alzheimer's disease progression, there is scope for a very significant
uplift in valuation.
• Click Here to access the Elan page on NCB’s online Irish Equity Stock Guide
Orla Hartford +353 1 611 5844 orla.hartford@ncb.ie

kingofthehill

01-16-2006, 08:21 AM

tHANKS SPIKE FOR THE CHART

Elan (Add, Closing Price $16.02)
Reporting date coincides with Wyeth, not Biogen Idec.

Analyst: Ian Hunter
On Friday after the markets closed, Elan announced that it will report its Q4'05 and full year results on Tuesday, 31 January. Biogen Idec is reporting results on Wednesday, 15 February. This implies that there is no new substantive information on Tysabri in the offing. The market is already awaiting newsflow on the timing of the sitting of an expected FDA review committee on Tysabri. The Administration will then make its decision on the return of the drug on or before 26 March. The reporting date is, however, the same as Wyeth, its partner in Alzheimer's research. The partners have one drug (AAB001) in phase II and a second (ACC001) in Phase I.

Websman

01-16-2006, 08:25 AM

$60 would make my portfolio look good...

kingofthehill

01-17-2006, 12:47 PM

SPike nice call on buying the dip...some run today

kingofthehill

01-18-2006, 03:40 PM

16.81 nice run

spikefader

01-19-2006, 11:23 AM

Well a short 5th handed to us :(
There's the corrective a. Anyone who buys this dip should be targetting short unless you wanna hold through a 'c' that will likely steal any profit you get buying a bounce here. Looks like 5th completion to me. Buy the 'a' completion to target end of 'b'. Stop under low if ya do! That's about 2% risk.

spikefader

01-19-2006, 11:39 AM

14.40, current levels is daily channel long territory. Start lookin' fer the pattern now....

noshadyldy

01-19-2006, 11:43 AM

noshadyldy

01-19-2006, 11:48 AM

Gee Spke, ya lost me without the pretty pictures and all. Bottom line, what's the projected bottom line? How low can she go?

The ol quick and dirty holding the index card against the screen suggests around $13. Whaddaya think, Spike?

Gotta get me a new pic. I ain't smilin!

noshadyldy

01-19-2006, 11:49 AM

14.40, current levels is daily channel long territory. Start lookin' fer the pattern now....

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
oh... we must have crossed in the "mail."

spikefader

01-19-2006, 11:52 AM

lol noshady
this is why selling 5ths is good. I was expecting a flush, but sheeeeesh.
here is the pattern to confirm the channel long 14.60 risking 4.3% with stop under lod.
http://img380.imageshack.us/img380/3411/elnjan193vi.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

noshadyldy

01-19-2006, 11:57 AM

Thanks, Pal!

spikefader

01-19-2006, 12:50 PM

5 minute pattern:

http://img380.imageshack.us/img380/6995/elnsetupjan191ef.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Websman

01-19-2006, 04:13 PM

Big drop for a small downgrade.

When I checked the price at work, I figured something bad had happened, since ELN had tanked over $2. I was pleased when I got home and saw that the all the fuss was nothing but panic selling over a little downgrade.

After the big runup, I suppose we were due for a big correction. Good thing I'm in at 6.89. :)

skiracer

01-19-2006, 06:32 PM

I just love it. Just when you think that it looks like everyone in the world is going to be fighting to get in on this stock because it looks like a sure bet on Tysarbi getting re-instated and there won't be enough to go around it sells off on 38 million shares. Never fails to amaze me. I took 2000 shares between $14.07 and $14.10 this morning and set a stop at $14.60 this afternoon. It can do whatever it wants to from here an I'm going to make a $1000. Saw a news release early this morning that it looked like a good play on either one of the two partners in this drug on the assumption that people were going to be fighting to get in on it before it went further up. At that time it was up .26 or so in the pre-market an I thought for sure it was going to go off bigtime today. Went out and came home around 10:30/10:45 it was under $16 and by 11:30/11:45 was at $14.06. No matter what the charts say these things never fail to amaze me. This drop will supply the incentive for alot of people to get in on the low price. My bet is that it goes back to over $16 or more from this consolidation.

Websman

01-19-2006, 06:41 PM

spikefader

01-20-2006, 02:07 AM

ski; nicely done :D

spikefader

01-20-2006, 11:39 AM

Potential Tweezer ELN. Great r/r here.

http://img472.imageshack.us/img472/5588/elnjan202li.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

noshadyldy

01-20-2006, 11:46 AM

I'd really hate to find out that my "index card up against the screen" method had any merit. But 13 ish looks possible. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon9.gif

spikefader

01-20-2006, 11:50 AM

Not liking the ELN action :( That tweezer ain't happening....

The channel long with 5 min inverted SHS pattern from yesterday failing now.....a bearish thing.

The insanity of ELN has returned again lol

Holding my position with green hope, and accordin' ta plan. Anyone looking long side from here better sit this out for a while.

spikefader

01-20-2006, 11:57 AM

I'd really hate to find out that my "index card up against the screen" method had any merit. But 13 ish looks possible. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon9.gifYup. As it's turned out that price resistance from August 04 is resisting very strongly. 12.50 is the 50 SMA, then 11.00 and 9.50 price supports.

A bearish market day is never a happy one, even when you're short futures :(

spikefader

01-20-2006, 12:07 PM

http://img472.imageshack.us/img472/3699/elnjan20intra5pf.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

noshadyldy

01-21-2006, 08:33 AM

Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/20/06 09:57 pm
Msg: 893509 of 893930
[posted by finance_n_strategy]

Forbes... it's what they DON'T SAY

SAID: "Elan Valuation Seen As 'Overvalued'"
NOT SAID: "I missed the boat at 8.40 and anything above that price to me means overvalued... however i hardly think it's overbought or that it won't go even higher."

SAID: “In our opinion, at nearly $17 per share, Elan’s valuation more than fully reflects a successful upcoming FDA panel meeting, market re-entry, and future peak sales well in excess of even the most optimistic scenarios"
NOT SAID: "At under $14 per share, Elan is a screaming BUY and I would mortgage my house, dip into the children's college fund, yadayadayada... What I didn't take into consideration is that sales will exceed even the most optimistic scenarios a lot sooner than anticipated and the price of the medication will be raised significantly which will add to the bottom line further."

SAID: "Silver said that if Tysabri does return to the market, neurologists may be reluctant to broadly prescribe it due to the responsibility of the required strict patient monitoring."
NOT SAID: "The reluctance is likely to be short-lived as doctors need to pay the bills somehow and besides... how strict can monitoring really be: (DOCTOR) How do you feel after starting Tysabri? (PATIENT) I feel better than I ever have! (DOCTOR) Works for me... see you again in a week. (PATIENT) Thanks, Doc.

SAID: "The analyst added patients taking Tysabri face the risk of missing early signs of the rare but life-threatening side effect of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, a brain disorder linked to the drug."
NOT SAID: "Patients not taking Tysabri face the reality of missing out on life entirely as the life-draining side effects of MS continue to take their toll."

Just an opinion :)

Also on the board was a mention that Lehman bought up shares?????? Comon.. can't be... Not in America! That's ILLEGAL!

Websman

01-21-2006, 09:15 AM

Well said Noshady!

spikefader

01-21-2006, 02:12 PM

heh, yup yup noshady. It's all cloak and daggers, or smoke and daggers.......or smoke, cloak and daggers lol

Whatever is said at the moment, or between the lines, or anticipated fundamentally, the chart is clear; to me anyway. The weekly chart boomed 6 weeks ago, there just this week a fresh weekly channel long, and an expanding channel long. The bias is long.

This kind of retracement (while quick and more than I personally expected to occur) is merely heavy profit-taking from that price resistance of 16.45 that presents a nice buying opportunity. Smart people will look for a decent pattern and make the good r/r entry.

It's a bit troubling that the inverted 5 min SHS I posted didn't hold. And there wasn't a good intraday pattern for it yesterday. But the volume is looking climactic I'm anticipating a bounce this coming week.

Some might think, "why didn't you take or lock in profits?" My bottom line is that this volatile price action is within the limits of my plan. For me, it's either gap fill and extremely nice % win, or stop out for a push. I drew my line in the sand and don't have to sweat trying to get another entry....yet heh. Yes, it will be disappointing if it stops out. It will be yet another ELN disappointment. But I shall be victorious eventually with it lol How do I know this? Cuz I put the numbers on my side, and it's just a matter of time :D

Websman

01-21-2006, 02:56 PM

I may consider adding back to my ELN position.

skiracer

01-21-2006, 03:04 PM

I've done very well with it on several swings an never ever thought I would see it this low again. Will be looking for another entry under $14 this Monday. Only wish I hadn't procrastinated Friday when it was $13.10 or so. Thought $14.10 was great on Thursday and it dropped another point before reversing back to $13.67. Could it do another big drop again on Monday to around $12.10. I don't think so but that would be a big surprise to alot of people and these stocks never fail to surprise an amaze me with their actions regardless of what the chart indicates. Over 78 million in volume between Thursday and Friday. This is a fabulous buying opportunity and Webs if you don't sell off everything else to raise some cash to buy it again at this level you will be regretting it come Wed. or Thursday of this coming week.

Websman

01-21-2006, 03:07 PM

This is a fabulous buying opportunity and Webs if you don't sell off everything else to raise some cash to buy it again at this level you will be regretting it come Wed. or Thursday of this coming week.

I've already sold everything else off... :)

I have plenty of cash and will more than likely buy some more. this is a great opportunity.

kingofthehill

01-22-2006, 08:25 AM

ok a couple of quick points

1 there will be a FDA panel review for TYSABRI March 7th in MD

2. the day before te panel March 6th the FDA insiders will publish thier written opinion of the drug. very important paper!

3. Jan 31st Elan should tal more about Alzhiemers disease vaccine they are workin on with Wyeth.

4. on or before March 26th the FDA will announce a yea or nay

FDA Advisory Panel on Tysabri Scheduled for March 7th

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is the link for the agenda:

http://www.fda.gov/oc/advisory/accal...43d030706.html

Since this is a government site the information can be posted here:

Peripheral and Central Nervous System Drugs Advisory Committee
Center Date Time Location
CDER March 7, 2006 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. Holiday Inn Gaithersburg
The Ballrooms
Two Montgomery Village Ave.
Gaithersburg, MD

Agenda:
The committee will discuss TYSABRI (natalizumab) biologic license application 125104/15; Biogen Idec Inc., for an indication in patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis to reduce the frequency of clinical exacerbations. The committee will discuss the risks (including progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy) associated with TYSABRI (natalizumab) administration, its efficacy in the treatment of multiple sclerosis relapses and/or disability, its possible return to the marketplace, and its proposed risk management plan(s).

Background material and meeting information will become available no later than one business day before the meeting (Simply scroll down to the appropriate committee heading).

Procedure:
Interested persons may present data, information, or views, orally or in writing, on issues pending before the committee. Written submissions may be made to the contact person by February 28, 2006. Oral presentations from the public will be scheduled between approximately 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. Time allotted for each presentation may be limited. Those desiring to make formal oral presentations should notify the contact person before February 28, 2006, and submit a brief statement of the general nature of the evidence or arguments they wish to present, the names and addresses of proposed participants, and an indication of the approximate time requested to make their presentation. Persons attending FDA's advisory committee meetings are advised that the agency is not responsible for providing access to electrical outlets.

FDA welcomes the attendance of the public at its advisory committee meetings and will make every effort to accommodate persons with physical disabilities or special needs. If you require special accommodations due to a disability, please contact Sohail Mosaddegh at least 7 days in advance of the meeting.

kingofthehill

01-23-2006, 09:22 AM

Remember: Orla Hartford is the one with the Phd. and pharma background. A little bit more qualified than the Silvers of this world.

Elan $13.66 BUY FDA Advisory Committee Date
• On March 7th 2006 the Peripheral and Central Nervous System Drugs Advisory
Committee will review TYSABRI (to be held at the Holiday Inn Gaithersburg, Maryland)
and provide a recommendation to the FDA for the re-launch of Tysabri for multiple
sclerosis in the US. The committee will focus on (i) the risks associated with Tysabri
including the PML risk, (ii) the proposed risk management plans, (iii) the efficacy of
Tysabri in the treatment of multiple sclerosis relapses and/or disability and (iv) the
subsequent return of Tysabri to the market. Given the concerns we have previously
raised about Tysabri in combination with AVONEX we also expect this issue to be
focused on by the committee.
• The members on the advisory committee are available on the following link:
http://www.fda.gov/cder/audiences/acspage/peripheralroster1.htm and include
neurologists, a statistician, an epidemiologist and a industry representative. While
overall we would expect this panel to recommend to the FDA the re-launch of Tysabri,
the risk of negative commentary ahead of the panel’s decision could generate negative
sentiment and weak share price performance.
• The re-launch of Tysabri is expected to coincide with the publication of the revised
label, which will highlight the two cases of PML in patients on combination therapy
and the risk of PML should a patient be immunosuppressed, along with further data
from the two-year Phase III clinical studies. We continue to believe that the FDA will
approve the re-launch of Tysabi as a treatment option for MS patients by the end of
March 2006.

Links provided:

http://www2.ncbdirect.com/EquityBook/HTML/ELN.htm

http://www.fda.gov/cder/audiences/acspage/peripheralroster1.htm