PTSI [Archive] - Mr. Market's Stock Picking Forum

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mrmarket

09-26-2003, 08:10 AM

$$$MR. MARKET$$$ Loves PTSI
by: mr_market63 (42/M)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 04/15/02 04:08 pm
Msg: 277 of 300

I bought PTSI (P.A.M. Transportation) today at 24.84. I will sell it in four to six weeks at 28.88. Now you're probably all surprised by this pick, but let me give you my reasoning:

„h Momentum: PTSI stock price is up 234% in the last 12 months giving it an RS of 98.
„h Valuation: PE is 20.75. Even at this low PE, take this year¡¦s avg earnings estimate of $1.33, add $0.13 per share, which is how much they have beaten expectations the last several quarters, and this gives you $1.46. Multiply it buy 20.75 and you get $30.30/share.
„h Not much downside risk unless economy takes a dump, which it won¡¦t.
„h Well positioned for rotational inflow of funds from tech stocks.
„h Operating margins are 9.4%. This is very good for a staeady Eddy business like transportation.
„h Return on Equity = 15%
„h Revenues up 10% from last year

Here is some more info on PTSI:

P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc., organized in June 1986, operating through its wholly owned subsidiaries, is an irregular route, common and contract motor carrier. The Company is authorized to transport general commodities throughout the continental United States and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, pursuant to operating authorities granted by the former Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC), various state regulatory agencies and Canadian regulatory agencies. The freight consists primarily of automotive parts, consumer goods, such as general retail store merchandise, and products from the manufacturing sector, such as heating and air conditioning units. All freight is transported as truckload quantities.

This is primarily a bet on the economy recovering, and signs point to this actually occurring. Sales have grown an average of 15% over the last 5 years. The company has been profitable for each of the last 16 quarters.

Robert W. Weaver, President of the Company, commented, ``We are very pleased to report record results for our year ended December 31, 2001 - a year in which the industry and the Company endured numerous challenges. While many companies saw revenue and earnings decline, we finished with a 10% increase in revenues and a 15% increase in earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2001. For the quarter ended December 31, 2001 revenues increased 10.4% and earnings per share increased from $.28 to $.30. Fourth quarter earnings were impacted by a one time write-down in equipment values of $523,000, or the equivalent of $.04 per share. This write-down was primarily related to equipment acquired in the acquisition of Decker Transport, Inc. that did not have guaranteed residual values.''

The stock is experiencing very good accumulation recently even though it is at a resistance point. The great thing about low volume stocks is that good earnings or economic data can easily shatter these resistance points. There is no resistance in the area just above the stock price of $25.63

I am HUGE!!!!

$$$MR. MARKET$$$

mrmarket

11-24-2003, 02:50 PM

up over 5% today...here we go!

The Kid

11-24-2003, 04:11 PM

Huge One,

I don't see any news on this one recently. Why do you think it jumped 6% today?

the Kid

jiesen

07-26-2004, 07:48 PM

PTSI beat the earnings estimates by 0.04 today. maybe it's time for a turnaround in this one!

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040726/dam049_1.html

mrmarket

02-09-2005, 01:59 PM

Press Release Source: P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc.

P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. Announces Results for the Fourth Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2004
Tuesday February 8, 5:04 pm ET

TONTITOWN, Ark., Feb. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. (Nasdaq: PTSI - News) today reported net income of $1,829,955 or diluted and basic earnings per share of $.16 for the quarter ended December 31, 2004, and $10,655,684 or diluted and basic earnings per share of $.94 for the year ended December 31, 2004. These results compare to net income of $1,662,080 or diluted and basic earnings per share of $.15, and $11,490,725 or diluted earnings per share of $1.01 ($1.02 basic), respectively, for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2003.
ADVERTISEMENT

Operating revenues excluding fuel surcharges were $77,508,358 for the fourth quarter of 2004, a 4.4% increase compared to $74,235,660 for the fourth quarter of 2003. Operating revenues excluding fuel surcharges for the year ended December 31, 2004 were $309,474,540, a 5.4% increase compared to $293,546,854 for the year ended December 31, 2003.

Robert W. Weaver, President of the Company, commented, "Earnings per share reflect a year over year improvement for the fourth quarter but were not what we had expected. There is however, evidence of continued positive change in our operating fundamentals in driver recruiting and retention, utilization, and revenue per mile.

"The October driver pay increase and training incentive had a significant impact on both retention and recruitment. The student training program is running at full capacity. The driver recruiting department produced a net increase of 130 drivers in the fourth quarter. Driver wage increased three cents per mile, resulting in an approximate $1,000,000 after tax increase in driver wages for the quarter. Training cost increased significantly and is expected to benefit the Company in subsequent months.

"Revenue per total mile climbed from $1.08 per mile in the fourth quarter of 2003 to $1.18 per mile in fourth quarter of 2004. The increase in the fourth quarter of 2004 as compared to the third quarter 2004 was approximately 3.5 cents. A portion of this increase was the result of efforts to pass along the driver pay increase to the customer base and did not immediately coincide with the increase in cost.

"Fluctuations in fuel prices and the addition of new trucks utilizing the less efficient Federally mandated EGR engines caused our overall fuel expense to increase by 10.6% on a cost per mile basis. Fourth quarter 2003 cost per mile was 19.66 cents compared to a fourth quarter 2004 cost of 21.75 cents per mile.

"We expect that our continued focus on driver recruiting, freight rates, and utilization will contribute to improved earnings."

P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. will be holding a live conference call with certain financial analysts to discuss the earnings release, the results of operations, and other matters on Wednesday, February 9, 2005 at 2:00 p.m. CDT. (Please note that since the call will begin promptly at 2:00 p.m., you will need to join at least ten minutes prior to that time.)

The public will be able to listen and participate in the conference call telephonically by dialing (800) 310-1961. Please ask to be joined to the P.A.M. Transportation Services Fourth Quarter and Year End Earnings Release Conference call. An audio replay of the conference call will be posted on the Company's web site after the meeting (http://www.pamt.com/investing/audio.html ). In order to listen to the replay, you will need an internet enabled PC capable of playing back MP3 audio files. The Company assumes no responsibility to update any information posted on its Web site.

P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. is a leading truckload dry van carrier transporting general commodities throughout the continental United States, as well as in the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The Company also provides transportation services in Mexico through its gateways in Laredo and El Paso, Texas under agreements with Mexican carriers.

Certain information included in this document contains or may contain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements may relate to expected future financial and operating results or events, and are thus prospective. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, excess capacity in the trucking industry; surplus inventories; recessionary economic cycles and downturns in customers' business cycles; increases or rapid fluctuations in fuel prices, interest rates, fuel taxes, tolls, license and registration fees; the resale value of the Company's used equipment and the price of new equipment; increases in compensation for and difficulty in attracting and retaining qualified drivers and owner-operators; increases in insurance premiums and deductible amounts relating to accident, cargo, workers' compensation, health, and other claims; unanticipated increases in the number or amount of claims for which the Company is self insured; inability of the Company to continue to secure acceptable financing arrangements; seasonal factors such as harsh weather conditions that increase operating costs; competition from trucking, rail, and intermodal competitors including reductions in rates resulting from competitive bidding; the ability to identify acceptable acquisition candidates, consummate acquisitions, and integrate acquired operations; a significant reduction in or termination of the Company's trucking service by a key customer; and other factors, including risk factors, referred to from time to time in filings made by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or clarify forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

jiesen

02-17-2005, 06:34 PM

and so does Matt Moroun, apparently:

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/98/828.html

PTSI's director and largest shareholder has been taking this opportunity to increase his position by about 65,000 shares over the last 6 trading days. Average volume (3 month) is 11,000/day.

What's your take on this?

mrmarket

04-11-2005, 05:55 PM

PTSI Announces Stock Repurchase
Monday April 11, 4:05 pm ET

TONTITOWN, Ark., April 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. (Nasdaq: PTSI - News) announced today the Board of Directors has authorized the Company to repurchase up to 600,000 shares of the Company's common stock over the next six months. Under the stock repurchase program, shares may be purchased from time to time in open market or privately negotiated transactions, subject to market conditions, share price and other considerations.
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc., is a leading truckload dry van carrier transporting general commodities throughout the continental United States, as well as in the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The Company also provides transportation services in Mexico through its gateways in Laredo and El Paso, Texas under agreements with Mexican carriers.

mrmarket

06-02-2005, 04:18 PM

really a steal right now.

Websman

06-02-2005, 05:40 PM

really a steal right now.

I will certainly be taking a good look at this one tonight. I may have to steal some cheap shares!

jiesen

09-06-2005, 12:51 PM

really a steal right now.

Like OFG, they recognize that it's a bargain, and are acting appropriately by continuing to buy up to nearly 10% of their stock (on top of what they've already bought back):

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050906/datu034.html?.v=26

PTSI Announces Extension of Stock Repurchase Program
Tuesday September 6, 10:58 am ET

TONTITOWN, Ark., Sept. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. (Nasdaq: PTSI (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ptsi&d=t) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=ptsi)) has completed purchasing the 600,000 shares of its common stock covered by its stock repurchase program that it announced April 11, 2005, and has decided to extend the stock repurchase program to cover up to an additional 900,000 shares. The extended program is expected to continue for up to twelve months from today. Under the stock repurchase program, shares may be purchased from time to time in open market or privately negotiated transactions, subject to market conditions, share price and other considerations.

mrmarket

01-04-2006, 06:54 PM

Morgan Keegan Ups P.A.M. Transportation Services to Outperform
Cites the stock's valuation and demand trends in the company's industry.

Morgan Keegan upgraded P.A.M. Transportation Services (PTSI ) to outperform from market perform, citing the stock's valuation and demand trends in its industry.

Analyst Chaz Jones also thinks the company will benefit from lower fuel prices and recent improvements in the company's fuel surcharge program. Jones notes that although the company's third quarter earnings per share (EPS) are somewhat lackluster (largely due to a weak July, and accelerating fuel price trends), he believes the fourth quarter could prove to be a breakout quarter for the company. Jones notes that with the company's solid finances and outlook on cash flow, he sees limited downside risk to the stock price.

mrmarket

01-24-2006, 02:54 PM

don't look now but PTSI is up 25% in the last 3 months...

Jim Smith

01-24-2006, 03:35 PM

this is just under the 200 week moving average...if gets above this level, I will buy

jiesen

01-24-2006, 03:55 PM

don't look now but PTSI is up 25% in the last 3 months...

and HOLX is up 14% just today. what a monster!

Gatorman

01-24-2006, 05:03 PM

don't look now but PTSI is up 25% in the last 3 months...
Took a position today at 19.95. Looking for 22.94 before 2/7 reporting date. Tight time constraint but I think it will happen.

mrmarket

02-24-2006, 05:06 PM

Look at that little monkey go:

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/3m/p/ptsi

jiesen

02-25-2006, 03:56 PM

It's been just over 2 years since I bought PTSI, and while some may think that PTSI is lame just because it's taking so long to hit your target (and I have no doubt that it will), for me it's doing just fine.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=PTSI&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC

In the two years I've owned it, it's gone up over 20%, while the S&P is barely up 12%. It was an obvious bargain to me at $17.7, their book value is huge- currently over $15, and earning another $1.2 or so each year. Can't lose! And even in the toughest transportation market with fuel prices climbing, they still make money. They do an excellent job passing these costs on to the customer.

PTSI makes me happy.

jiesen

03-03-2006, 03:11 PM

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PTSI&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Look at this little dog run! Nearly back to the $25 original buy now.

jiesen

03-27-2006, 11:33 AM

well, whaddya know? that old PTSI position is finally in the green!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PTSI&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

mrmarket

04-26-2006, 04:26 PM

P.A.M. Transportation 1Q Profit Soars
Wednesday April 26, 3:05 pm ET
P.A.M. Transportation Services 1st-Quarter Earnings Surge on Increased Sales

TONTITOWN, Ark. (AP) -- P.A.M. Transportation Services Inc., which trucks various goods across the U.S. and eastern Canada, said Wednesday first-quarter profit soared 79 percent on increased sales.
First-quarter earnings leaped to $5.2 million, or 50 cents per share, from $2.9 million, or 26 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

Analysts expected earnings of 32 cents per share, according to a Thomson Financial poll.

Quarterly revenue rose 16.6 percent to $100.5 million from $86.2 million during the same period last year, largely due to a fuel surcharge. The surcharge climbed to $9.7 million in the first quarter compared to $6.1 million in the year-ago period.

Automotive freight comprised 54 percent of total revenue before the surcharge on improved pricing.

Shares of P.A.M. Transportation added 32 cents to $26.44 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq

billyjoe

04-26-2006, 06:17 PM

Is this the same PTSI that was the poster stock for Mr.Market dicers ? The stock that is up 46.82% YTD and over 100% from it's low since MM refused to sell? Too bad nobody's left over at IBD to post this. Gee ,I wonder if any other Mr.Market stocks will come back.

billyjoe

gerihearne

04-26-2006, 10:03 PM

Websman

04-26-2006, 10:42 PM

jiesen

04-26-2006, 11:46 PM

aace ... frgb ...

cbk...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CBK&t=1y

New-born baby

04-27-2006, 06:05 AM

The IBD forum became useless after Mr Market and myself were banned...

I heard a rumor on The Street that Wm. O'Neill is working to steal the secrets of the VTP and publish them in IBD.

jiesen

05-05-2006, 02:49 PM

c'mon PTSI! just a buck left until target is hit. you can DO it!

mrmarket

05-05-2006, 03:15 PM

I'll be sad..it will be like losing an old friend!

Rob

05-05-2006, 03:22 PM

I'll be sad..it will be like losing an old friend!On the contrary, it won't be sad at all, because then we will all look forward to basking in the glow of another HUGE data dump and another $$$ Mr. Market $$$ pick!!!

Rob

05-05-2006, 03:26 PM

I heard a rumor on The Street that Wm. O'Neill is working to steal the secrets of the VTP and publish them in IBD.Well, New-born, if that new VTP paradigm is going to emerge, it had better emerge soon while Webs still has a pair o' dimes! Get it? Paradigm? Pair o' dimes? Sorry, my Vulcan friend, I just couldn't resist ... :) :)

ParkTwain

05-09-2006, 12:23 AM

$$MM$$'s target: 28.90
Today's close: 28.25

Congrats again in advance on your pick.

I should have bought the latest upturn in PTSI when she passed 20/sh.

mrmarket

06-06-2006, 06:33 PM

PTSI up nice today in crappy market...this time it should hit the tape.

billyjoe

06-28-2006, 01:34 PM

Was doing some research on undervalued stocks and although PTSI wasn't one of the most undervalued , it is one of the highest rated stocks I've ever seen on Vectorvest with all 10 evaluations in the green. Don't know if I've ever seen that before. After doing some more DD I bought it today at 27.07 and won't worry about a small downturn. This stock is lightening in a bottle.
----------billyjoe

jiesen

06-29-2006, 11:27 AM

PTSI getting close again... only about $1 to go!

jiesen

06-30-2006, 05:02 PM

Got out at the close at 28.8 today. Bought this one at a good discount at 17.8 so made about 60% on it! So long, PTSI, been nice knowing you...

Thanks for the HUGE pick, $$MM! Hope you get your target for it next week, so we can have another!

peanuts

06-30-2006, 05:06 PM

mrmarket

06-30-2006, 05:22 PM

Actually PTSI did reach my target, but I was on the phone when the market closed and forgot to sell it. Hopefully I will punch out on Monday.

jiesen

06-30-2006, 06:04 PM

AWESOME!!!! Jiesen is HUUUUGE- 60% gain is very nice. Congrats!

Let me know your next pick :D

Sure thing, Peanuts. I have been and will continue to post each of my trades on this site as I make 'em. Likely my next pick will be the same as $$MM's, though. This system seems to be working out quite well so far.

And don't sweat it, $$MM, I'm sure PTSI will gap up another buck or so on Monday for ya.