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View Full Version : APOL ==> The Inauguration Day Winner!


mrmarket
01-27-2009, 12:07 AM
Remember that Star Trek episode when the Enterprise went to the strange planet to investigate an unusual force field? Ok, which episode didn’t have that scenario to start the story? Well this particular episode had them beam down and there was this dude dressed in a toga. He looked like he just came from a Sigma Nu party.

http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/7056/apollostartrekdw1.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

The only thing that didn’t make sense is that he couldn’t have been a Titan because his guns were so scrawny it looked like he had been doing curls with 5 pound weights. It also looked like you could peel potatoes on his shoulders and his legs looked like pipecleaners. What a loser! I would have squished that guy like a grape if I was on the Enterprise. I wouldn’t even want that guy to spot for me. I’d rather ask the girl at the gym who folds the towels.

In that episode, he said he was the god named Apollo. This was probably one of my least favorite Star Trek episodes. Speaking of Apollo, I kind of enjoyed the movie “Apollo 13”.

http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/2849/apollo13br3.jpg (http://imageshack.us/)


Oh yeah…now we’re talking. Houston, we have a problem. Did any of you know that there was an ABC Movie of the week called, “Houston, we have a problem”. The only thing I remember about it is that a fat guy took off his vest at the end of the movie and everyone clapped.

There’s lots of reasons to like Apollo. My favorite one is that fact that there is a school where anyone can go to college. It’s the University of Phoenix. That’s right. There are a dozens of University of Phoenixes all over the USA (not just in Phoenix). There are lots of hard working Americans who, for whatever reason, weren’t able to go to college right away but were certainly smart enough and deserving enough to get a good education. That’s why we have the University of Phoenix. We’re gonna to get educated and we’re gonna kick the world’s ass and fix that trade imbalance. That’s right, uh – huh…don’t walk away when I’m talking to you. Who needs to go to Columbia and pay all those tolls when the University of Phoenix wants your fannies in their seats. All you gotta do is pay. Get the picture? It’s a freakin money machine. MACHINE! TOUSAND!!

Today I bought APOL (Apollo Group) at 81.40. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 94.43. Here’s why I like APOL:

A weak U.S. economy, which has shed 1.9 million jobs this year, and increased global competition have forced more working adults to return to school to get a degree or bolster their resumes and skills. Apollo Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various educational programs and services at high school, college, and graduate levels. Apollo's flagship is the University of Phoenix with 140 campuses nationwide - 200 if learning centers are included - and it is the largest publicly traded firm in the space, which includes 20 other for-profit institutions.


They build schools, higher teachers, charge tuition and award degrees. Did you hear the news this week? A bazillion people got laid off. What a great time to further your education! You go to school, get your diploma and don’t miss any work doing it. Increasingly tenuous job security and a slew of never-ending layoffs has fueled a surge in enrollment for Apollo Group's education services. Apollo's strong free cash flow, healthy balance sheet, acyclical business model and identifiable growth drivers make the company attractive in the current volatile economic environment,

Apollo Group, reported earnings that blew past expectations. Its profits grew 24.9% in the company's fiscal first quarter, which ended on Nov. 30. The results were fueled by the increase in the enrollment of degree-seeking students, which jumped more than 18.0%, to 384,900. The recession appears to be the major impetus behind the surge in enrollment. Americans are seeking online degrees as they find themselves searching for new careers after layoffs and years of service in now-shrinking industries. Indeed, Apollo's stock was a strong performer from 2000 to 2003, while the rest of the market tanked. It recently broke out of a cup-with-handle base and is near a 52-week high after a strong earnings report.

Apollo reported its profits on the same day that the U.S. Labor Department announced that the unemployment rate in the United States had reached 7.2%. For the quarter, the company earned $180.4 million, or $1.12 per share, well ahead of the $139.9 million, or 83 cents per share, reported in last year's corresponding quarter. Sales rose 24.0%, to $970.7 million, from $780.7 million. ANAL-ysts expected a more modest profit of 98 cents per share, with sales of $912.4 million. They are such morons. That shows three quarters of earnings and two quarters of sales acceleration.

“Our year-end momentum carried into the first quarter of fiscal 2009 as we continue to benefit from the significant investments we have made over the past several years and we are very pleased with our results,” said Chas Edelstein, Chief Executive Officer of Apollo Group. “We reported year-over-year operating income growth of approximately 40% on 24% revenue growth, and Degreed Enrollment reached a record 384,900 students during the quarter. While we cannot quantify the significance of the current economy on our growth, we believe we are experiencing a positive impact, and we continue to generate meaningful cash flow. Additionally, our growth is directly impacted by the efforts of our thousands of employees and faculty who are dedicated to providing great academic service and support to our students.”

From the most recent conference call, I pulled out these nuggets about Apollo:

• We believe that, with our strong balance sheet and our access to capital, we can play an important role in service to the nation and our students, while building further value for our shareholders.

• As a percentage of revenue, instructional costs and services declined 380 basis points to 38.9%, obviously a significant improvement. A primary contributor was savings from lower negotiated contract costs from third-party vendors, particularly in financial aid processing. Processing costs in the area declined 48% year-over-year despite the increased volume and contributed 140 basis points of margin improvement.

• Cash and marketable securities, excluding restricted cash, totaled $821 million versus $511 million at August 31, 2008. We generated approximately $381 million of cash flow from operations during the first quarter, an 83% increase versus a year ago.

The balance sheet is in awesome shape. They don’t have any debt. They can’t fail. If you look at the earnings engine, it looks well oiled. Oh the oil! Oh the Oil!!

Gross margin is at 63.5% vs. Industry average of 28.2%. Return on Equity is 69.6% vs. Industry average of 27.3%. Return on Assets are 32.6% vs. Industry Average of 15.1% and Return on Investment is 68.7% vs. Industry average of 28.6%. Apollo’s earnings growth rate still exceeds its PE.

ANAL-ysts are projecting earnings of $3.80 per share for 2009 on earnings of $3.9 billion. Crack crack crack…do you smoke crack? $$$MR. MARKET$$$ knows the scoop. We’re going to see revenues of $4.0 billion which will spit out earnings of $4.42 per share. Yea this 442 is gonna overheat. Make up your mind girl we gotta get back out on the street. Using the existing PE of 26, this cranks out a share price of $114, which is well past my target.

Apollo Group's chief executive Chas Edelstein gave a careful acknowledgement of the connection. "While we cannot quantify the significance of the current economy on our growth, we believe we are experiencing a positive impact," Edelstein said. Positive impact?? You better believe it. The positive impact is going to be on my stock portfolio.

I am HUGE!!

Bring me your finest meats and cheeses!

$$$MR. MARKET$$$

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com

HYDROTURBINE
01-27-2009, 12:19 AM
should be no reason this stock does not trade to par

HYDROTURBINE
01-27-2009, 12:22 AM
Go apol....quarterly earnings yoy up up nice.

PALOALTOSKIDS888
01-27-2009, 12:42 AM
how to keep the business profitable.
Not to mention the Sterlings really
take pride in their operation, pps, reputation.

Apol positioned nice. GLTA

Peter Hansen
01-27-2009, 09:44 AM
Very nice chart ....notice how APOL is Above its 200 SMA and the 7 SMA is Above 30 SMA. Only negative that may occur is if the MACD goes negative!

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=APOL#chart5:symbol=apol;range=6m;indicat or=sma(7,30,200)+volume+macd+rsi;charttype=line;cr osshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefin ed

jiesen
01-27-2009, 10:41 AM
Nice pick, $$MM! I'm in at 82.4!

New-born baby
01-27-2009, 11:52 AM
I thought this was the one you'd pick, and I have to say, I like it. Here's to a winnah in less than four weeks, MM!!

yosberk
01-27-2009, 03:43 PM
but I just read a negative article on APOL, please read and tell me what you think, thanks
here is the link

http://www.citronresearch.com/

ajc3388
01-27-2009, 04:11 PM
in at 79.58. For those of you that place stops, what would you set it at here and why?

mrmarket
01-27-2009, 05:06 PM
but I just read a negative article on APOL, please read and tell me what you think, thanks
here is the link

http://www.citronresearch.com/

APOL has put this lawsuit behind them...details were noted in their conference call.

yosberk
01-27-2009, 05:10 PM
Thanks for the response

ajc3388
01-27-2009, 06:21 PM
sentiment over at stocktwits is rather bearish. lots of people looking to short if it drops to 78.60

mrmarket
01-27-2009, 06:45 PM
sentiment over at stocktwits is rather bearish. lots of people looking to short if it drops to 78.60


Well...we shall certainly see won't we??? Over the years the one thing that I have learned is:


I am HUGE!!!

New-born baby
01-27-2009, 07:51 PM
sentiment over at stocktwits is rather bearish. lots of people looking to short if it drops to 78.60


Market was hammered between the posting of the top 100 and the top five, and then the APOL winner. APOL chart has turned bearish in the meantime, with $67 target. Still, APOL is at a support right now at $79.83. Let's see if tomorrow (January 28th) the buyers come in here at support. When you look at the weekly, you've got a cup with handle. And a two week handle is not bad at all. Watch that support line at $78.60. If APOL moves up we could have a nice breakout and MM is huge!

If not, then yes, if $78.60 fails (the 50 ma), it calls for shorting, with the first target at $70, the second at $67, and a third at $63. Heaven forbid if $63 should bust, because it would be a nightmare. I am not looking for APOL to go THAT cold. But I could see $70 shortterm if it busts the 50 day. APOL has a good support at $75, another at $70 and a very strong one at $63. That would take a lot of hammering to bust $63.

.

mrmarket
01-27-2009, 10:36 PM
Insider sales are meaningless. People need money to buy the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip for Christmas.

mystiky
01-29-2009, 12:35 AM
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?apol

I agree, it's a buy in the very low $70's.

New-born baby
02-04-2009, 11:00 PM
Market was hammered between the posting of the top 100 and the top five, and then the APOL winner. APOL chart has turned bearish in the meantime, with $67 target. Still, APOL is at a support right now at $79.83. Let's see if tomorrow (January 28th) the buyers come in here at support. When you look at the weekly, you've got a cup with handle. And a two week handle is not bad at all. Watch that support line at $78.60. If APOL moves up we could have a nice breakout and MM is huge!



Well, buyers bought support at $78.60 on January 28, and we had a nice move up to $90. Today we stalled at $90. Market wouldn't cooperate with Mr. Market today. But if APOL can just bust $90, MM hits the target with ease. Right now we are faced with a double top on the daily, or we are faced with another cup on the daily. Time will tell. A breakout over $90 would be just what MM ordered.

For the Dow, we are sitting right dead on support--or maybe a little under it. On the weekly
if it plunges and holds under this 7955 level for two days, then we are looking at $6600 DOW. PnF says $7350 Dow is in the cards. I am getting contradictory signals from other indicators, as they are pointing to an up move on Friday. We shall see.

ajc3388
02-05-2009, 11:19 PM
was in at 79.58, out today at 83.70

Was up to 11% gain at the 89s, probably shouldve limited gains to 10% in a market like this. Dropped to +7% the next day. Panicked, and remembered the saying that professionals never let a profitable trade turn into a loss. Set an OCA order for stoploss at 83.70, or limit at 87. 83.70 was hit.

5.1% gain overall. thanks MM.

New-born baby
02-06-2009, 07:52 AM
was in at 79.58, out today at 83.70

Was up to 11% gain at the 89s, probably shouldve limited gains to 10% in a market like this. Dropped to +7% the next day. Panicked, and remembered the saying that professionals never let a profitable trade turn into a loss. Set an OCA order for stoploss at 83.70, or limit at 87. 83.70 was hit.

5.1% gain overall. thanks MM.


It ain't over for APOL. Watch the market today. The NYSE is working on a symmetrical triangle. A breakout up signals a very strong gain; a breakout down signals a deep loss to
probably the 7350 marker. My gut is bullish. I am thinking we are going to move up. I expect APOL move up if the market breaks out.

I would say to all readers that if APOL breaks over $90 on volume, that she's going to hit $99.80, and maybe a little more. APOL is locked in a trading range right now. Watch for the break above $90 or below $78.60, as I posted earlier. A break South signals a return to $70 or $67. The PnF chart turns bearish at a $82.00 or lower close. Or to look at it another way, $82.00 is a support to buy today if you believe in APOL. 15% of $82 is $12.30, and would give one a 15% target of $94.30 . . . . Not bad. Not bad at all. And I would not sell at $94.30; I would put a stop loss there and look for $99.00.

ajc3388
02-13-2009, 05:06 PM
Back in APOL at 81.53, between the 30 EMA and 10 SMA, zone for swing traders to enter, seems to have found support near the 80 area, a little under, and resistance isnt until ~88 range.

New-born baby
02-13-2009, 07:32 PM
Back in APOL at 81.53, between the 30 EMA and 10 SMA, zone for swing traders to enter, seems to have found support near the 80 area, a little under, and resistance isnt until ~88 range.

I hope you get a nice ride off of it.