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View Full Version : Who Else wants 500%+ in 4 yrs?



Peter Hansen
10-25-2007, 09:16 PM
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud says it is possible .........LISTEN UP!

Here are his points!
1. Shares of Homebuilders SOAR the most just AFTER new home prices start to fall.
2. New home prices have only fallen TWICE in in our generation...from 1979-82 and from 1989-92.
3. Home prices fell during bad times. In 1981, mortgage rates peaked at 20%, and unemployment peaked near 10%.
4. Who in their RIGHT minds would buy homebuilders .when NOBODY was buying homes?
5. Now listen CAREFULLY ...shares of HOMEBUILDERS soared by more than 1000% during the 1979-82 period!
6. Shares of homebuilders soar BEFORE home prices hit bottom.
7. The SAME thing happened during the 1990-1991 recession. New home prices fell but shares of HOMEBUILDERS SOARED rising more than 500%.

We are now seeing the SAME setup.

Today homebuilder's shares are just as cheap as they were in 1982 and 1990 trading at a HUGE discount to book value.
Investor are just as afraid of the future of homebuilding as they were in 1981 and 1991.
New home prices are falling. Waiting for home prices to bottom is nOT the right way to go. By then it is too late ya missed it.
Sounds crazy....but NOW is the time to step up and buy Homebuilder shares.

I am not myself buying yet .but I feel STEVE may be right?

I like the bigger builders DHT TOL and KBH .....ANYONE have other prospects?

Thank you and lets all come up with some homebuilder stocks u think are the safest.

IIC
10-25-2007, 11:08 PM
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud says it is possible .........LISTEN UP!

Here are his points!
1. Shares of Homebuilders SOAR the most just AFTER new home prices start to fall.
2. New home prices have only fallen TWICE in in our generation...from 1979-82 and from 1989-92.
3. Home prices fell during bad times. In 1981, mortgage rates peaked at 20%, and unemployment peaked near 10%.
4. Who in their RIGHT minds would buy homebuilders .when NOBODY was buying homes?
5. Now listen CAREFULLY ...shares of HOMEBUILDERS soared by more than 1000% during the 1979-82 period!
6. Shares of homebuilders soar BEFORE home prices hit bottom.
7. The SAME thing happened during the 1990-1991 recession. New home prices fell but shares of HOMEBUILDERS SOARED rising more than 500%.

We are now seeing the SAME setup.

Today homebuilder's shares are just as cheap as they were in 1982 and 1990 trading at a HUGE discount to book value.
Investor are just as afraid of the future of homebuilding as they were in 1981 and 1991.
New home prices are falling. Waiting for home prices to bottom is nOT the right way to go. By then it is too late ya missed it.
Sounds crazy....but NOW is the time to step up and buy Homebuilder shares.

I am not myself buying yet .but I feel STEVE may be right?

I like the bigger builders DHT TOL and KBH .....ANYONE have other prospects?

Thank you and lets all come up with some homebuilder stocks u think are the safest.


I think you may be right...But I also think you are too early

New-born baby
10-25-2007, 11:43 PM
Pete,
Great idea. Chartists won't be able to find the stocks for you. It'll take some FA work here.

I'd say we need the companies with the most cash and land reserves: in CA. Yes, CA.

Peter Hansen
10-26-2007, 05:38 AM
IIC yes I feel you ae right ......perhaps it is best to monitor some selected building Stocks and see when they begin their upswing.
New Born wow never though of california.....but U are right....with all those destructive files .....and tons of money in those affluent San Diego and Malibu communities ,building will commence in SHORT order .....these people take action ......unlike the New Orleans community which still looks like a garbage dump after several years !
Now lets have some research....come up with good building stocks here so we will be ready to pull the trigger at the appropriate time!

New-born baby
10-26-2007, 06:48 AM
IIC yes I feel you ae right ......perhaps it is best to monitor some selected building Stocks and see when they begin their upswing.
New Born wow never though of california.....but U are right....with all those destructive files .....and tons of money in those affluent San Diego and Malibu communities ,building will commence in SHORT order .....these people take action ......unlike the New Orleans community which still looks like a garbage dump after several years !
Now lets have some research....come up with good building stocks here so we will be ready to pull the trigger at the appropriate time!

$0.25 of every $1.00 made in the USA is made in CA. That's why IIC is so rich. I cannot explain how he got so "good looking."

Peter Hansen
10-26-2007, 07:13 AM
$0.25 of every $1.00 made in the USA is made in CA. That's why IIC is so rich. I cannot explain how he got so "good looking."

Perhaps a few moons back that handsome postman in IIC's neighborhood ......made a few "special" deliveries LOL

billyjoe
10-26-2007, 08:25 AM
$0.25 of every $1.00 made in the USA is made in CA. That's why IIC is so rich. I cannot explain how he got so "good looking."

New-born,
He used some of that money for botox and plas surgery. I think I spotted him "before" on nip and tuck or one of those California reality shows. If anyone can post his before and after pictures we could see what he actually had done.

------------billyjoe

studentofthemarket
10-26-2007, 04:30 PM
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud says it is possible .........LISTEN UP!

Here are his points!
1. Shares of Homebuilders SOAR the most just AFTER new home prices start to fall.
2. New home prices have only fallen TWICE in in our generation...from 1979-82 and from 1989-92.
3. Home prices fell during bad times. In 1981, mortgage rates peaked at 20%, and unemployment peaked near 10%.
4. Who in their RIGHT minds would buy homebuilders .when NOBODY was buying homes?
5. Now listen CAREFULLY ...shares of HOMEBUILDERS soared by more than 1000% during the 1979-82 period!
6. Shares of homebuilders soar BEFORE home prices hit bottom.
7. The SAME thing happened during the 1990-1991 recession. New home prices fell but shares of HOMEBUILDERS SOARED rising more than 500%.

We are now seeing the SAME setup.

Today homebuilder's shares are just as cheap as they were in 1982 and 1990 trading at a HUGE discount to book value.
Investor are just as afraid of the future of homebuilding as they were in 1981 and 1991.
New home prices are falling. Waiting for home prices to bottom is nOT the right way to go. By then it is too late ya missed it.
Sounds crazy....but NOW is the time to step up and buy Homebuilder shares.

I am not myself buying yet .but I feel STEVE may be right?

I like the bigger builders DHT TOL and KBH .....ANYONE have other prospects?

Thank you and lets all come up with some homebuilder stocks u think are the safest.



Oh for god's sakes. my reply just went into the bit bucket after I was logged in. @#$#@@#$#

point by point dismantling of this fool.

1. So, lower earnings makes share prices go up. if a builder is getting a smaller sale price, his margins/profits are decreasing. Wow, amazing. apparently this is hte only industry where you get increasing stock prices with lower earnings/profits.

2. So what. OTOH, home prices only fall if nobody will buy them at the current price. sounds like amazing thinking there. This guy must be a genius.

3. he said they fell in bad times, but he states that only 1 of the times was bad times, What was the cause for the other time?

4. >>Who in their RIGHT minds would buy homebuilders .when NOBODY was buying homes?
<<

Good question. This isn't like a dogs of the DOW thing. These are companies that are going to get their clocks cleaned. People are walking away from contracts, subcontractors are filing lawsuits to collect money. This is going to get so ugly, it is going to be unreal when all is said and done. This guy hopes you aren't in your right mind and buy some crappy going bankrupt homebuilder stocks from him and his clients because he was a goof and got them in at the peak.

5. he wants us to listen carefully to his nonsense to bail him out. What was the economy doing in that time period? it was expanding. take a look at retail sales expectations. do you see any expanding? I didn't think so.
Ford's plants here were idled for a couple weeks. How's that for expansion.

6,7. not worth commenting on. This guy is looking for a greater fool.

Check on your local MLS, prices are dropping. how anybody can expect to buy stock in a company that is earning less, and thinking it will go up, is a damn fool.

Home prices haven't come close to bottoming yet. Demographiclly sales had to drop. The rate of household formation( potential homebuyers) has been dropping for a while now. Eventually everybody that wants a house has one. Even people that couldn't/shouldn't have bought houses have done so.

the lawsuits haven't even begun yet. what about those amenities? the builder is going to get forced to put those in, for the benefit of the 5 families in the development, the other 400 lots will remain empty. OUCH!!! no doubt that will cause share prices to rise some more.

Buy at your own peril. OTOH, just send me the money. you'll get the same return 0, but I'll be richer for it. :)

Student.

studentofthemarket
10-26-2007, 04:33 PM
IIC yes I feel you ae right ......perhaps it is best to monitor some selected building Stocks and see when they begin their upswing.
New Born wow never though of california.....but U are right....with all those destructive files .....and tons of money in those affluent San Diego and Malibu communities ,building will commence in SHORT order .....these people take action ......unlike the New Orleans community which still looks like a garbage dump after several years !
Now lets have some research....come up with good building stocks here so we will be ready to pull the trigger at the appropriate time!


about 1600 houses were destroyed. I heard a builder interviewed on the radio the other day. the last major fire out there, building in some areas didn't get going for about 3 years. people wanted to change their houses, the foundations had to be cleared, etc. some of those places will have to have the roads etc. rebuilt.

Peter Hansen
10-29-2007, 05:40 AM
Student ....I am sure no one will pour money into these home builder stocks just yet ....basically we will observe and check the charts........I will NEVER buy a stock trending down in hopes that it will go up!
Student.... Tell me..... have you ever been a member of the OPTIMIST club?.....LOL have a great day !

Peter

jiesen
10-29-2007, 06:58 PM
over last year's Q3 income:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071029/20071029005512.html?.v=1

maybe the stock can rise 5x from here as well...