New Kid in Town -- My market strategy for maximizing profits

[The Kid]

Hi there. New Kid to these parts. I look forward to sharing stock thoughts, strategies and profits with all of you. :)

While I am sure we are all here because we enjoy a little fun with our financial advice, and would love to one day meet the Huge One himself, to shower him with fine meats and cheeses to thank him for all the money we have made through all his wise investment picks 8) , I am sure the majority of you are mainly here for one objective -- to make money, lots of it. :D With that in mind, I will share with you my own personal plan for maximizing my profits based on the Huge One's selections. :idea:

I realize that many people on the internet make selections after some sort of information has peaked their interest. That info. may have come from a news story, a trend, or any number of variable sources. Most likely the internet selector of a particuliar stock was not the only one to see/hear the info. With that in mind, instead of buying when the great Huge One buys a stock, I will wait a day or two until the stock 'let's off a little steam.'

Now, I know many of you are laughing at me saying that I will miss the boat with that strategy on some of the high-fliers that just keep taking off. I understand that. If I had not come to this website, I would not even know of their existence. My practice is a simple one that reduces risk if the recommended stock is a dog (though I would never expect that of the Huge One's selections :oops: ,) while allowing me to maximize profits if the stock does see the appreciation (15% gain) predicted by the esteemed creator of this website. Following along? :?: If you look at the last three stocks selected on this website, CLSR, CCBI and DHI, you will see that all three of them have fallen below the price at which the Huge One purchased them, yet have not yet reached the projected 15% gain sell point. If you like the advice offered for buying the selections, it would be logical to believe that buying them NOW would make even more sense. Isn't buy low(er), sell high, good sound financial advice?

In other words, I will never buy a stock at a price above that paid by the Huge One. I will buy the stock at a lower price, but before it reaches his target price. This practice will allow me to limit my downside potential and make sure that I never but at the exact top of a momentum play.....which, as many of you know, is a sad, sad thing when it happens to you. :( As stated above, I understand that if the recommended stock continues to rise from the moment the Huge One buys it, I will not get in on the fun and money-making. But if there is a dip, and the stock still rises to the 'announced' level, I will make even more money on that stock then the Huge One himself. :oops: While I humbly say that I would be a little embarassed by that prospect, I can assure you it is an occurrence I (and my stock account) would love to see happen over and over again. :D :lol:

With all that in mind, and to conclude my first (long-winded) post on this wonderful web-site, following my own personal plan, here are the stocks I purchased near close today (Monday - 11/10/03.) Feel free to track my progress and comment on my strategy.

Purchased CCBI @ 19.29 -- That is 4 1/2% less than the $20.20 that the Huge One paid. I can see a 15% gain at $22.18 and get out, or wait until the Huge One's target of 23.30 before I sell -- at which point I would have an almost 21% gain! :shock:

Purchased DHI @ 39.20-- That is 2 1/2% less than the $40.23 that the Huge One paid. I can see a 15% gain at $45.08 and get out, or wait until the Huge One's target of 46.42 before I sell -- at which point I would have made more than 18% profit.

Good luck and happy investing! :)

The Kid



NOTE - I EDITED THIS ON 11/25 TO CORRECT THE TITLE TO READ 'MARKET' AND NOT 'arket' AND TO CORRECT THE USE OF BOLD IN LAST TWO PARAGRAPHS. NOTHING ELSE WAS CHANGED.

[casinoboy3]

Purchased CCBI @ 19.29 -- That is 4 1/2% [/b]less than the $20.20 that the Huge One paid. I can see a 15% gain at $22.18 and get out, or wait until the Huge One's target of 23.30 before I sell -- at which point I would have an almost 21% gain! :shock:

The Kid

haha on my first day of investing I buy this stock and it goes down 8%. (did it in the morning) I hope it'll go back up!

[stenzrob]

Kid,
Let's assume that half of MR_Market's picks go up after he buys them, and half go down by some amount. If you miss the half that go up entirely, you would have to do twice as well on the ones you got into cheaper.

And why wouldn't your logic work one more time, "I will buy the MR_Market picks only after The Kid does, and only for a lower price." Wouldn't this logically lead to even better results?

And why did you buy at the point that you did, just because it was cheaper than the HUGE entry point? Was there some technical reason for your selecting that buy point?

I'm always ready to learn from the experiences or thoughts of others, and there is no disrespect intended here, but I just don't see where your method is so much a method as it is a convoluted way to point out that the HUGE picks don't always go straight up.

[the_daqman]

is that you Bec :?:

[tx_damnyankee0]

Gotta be Bec :wink:

[Karel]

Well, who knows; a first post and a poll too is a bit strange, but who cares. It isn't a very illogical observation for someone who only just has learned about MrMarket's picks, although this anonymous person @ yahoo.com obviously has some more thinking to do, as explained by stenzrob.

Regards,

Karel

[The Kid]

Stenzrob,

No disrespect was taken. :) I, the new kid on the block, can obviously not speak for any other members here, but I can speak for myself -- and I am here for one reason -- to make money. :D I am not here to engage in silly internet ego battles nor to show off who has a bigger willy (in this case, stock portfolio. :oops: ) I am here to learn, share, express ideas and selections (often with people MUCH more knowledgable than I) and...to make money! 8)

With that in mind, I answer your questions. First, I don't agree with your very first sentence which assumed that half the Huge One's selections would go up and half go down immediately after he bought them. I hate to assume much of anything when dealing with the market. I know many people who assumed an awful lot back in June of 2000 and now wish they had not.

Remember, the plan offered by me in my initial post is exactly that.....a plan. I apologize if I called it a strategy, for it really is not. In my plan, according to what I have seen of the limited number of the Huge One's stocks I have followed, many of them have indeed gone down in the hours/days after he bought them. As I said, I am not here to argue. If you wish to go back and check his last ten - fifteen selections and see this, feel free. I believe more have gone below his purchase price before reaching his 15% gain 'sell' price than have gone straight up to that mark. Therefor, I disagree with your first assumption.

As for re=applying my plan and someone getting in below the price that I bought a given stock at, that, with all due respect, is just plain silly. Obviously, and I am sure you know this, there is a law of diminishing returns as far as to following that advice. Keep carrying out that scenario and if Mark buys below Jim (or tries to), and Sally buys below Mark, and Kimani tries to buy below Sally, and Bartholomew buys below Kimani, and Bartholomew attempts to buy below......well, I guess you get the idea. Eventually poor Kaneesha is trying to buy the same stock at 1 penny, a price so low it would probably never happen and if it did...I think we would all admit at that point that the stock is (was) a dog. :(

Which brings me to your third point. I admit there is no formula or statistic or computer-generated buy point at which I enter. It is purely a 'feel' thing. I understand you place an awful lot of technical analysis into your selections and I truly appreciate your diligence, however you must admit that if making money in the market was as simple as throwing numbers in a computer, well, then you wouldn't be here right now, would you? If that is all that was involved, you would already be as rich as you wanted and you would be living on the same island as the man who invented the pet rock. :lol:

No, as we all know, there is an emotional side of buying and selling as well. If you want to call my 'feel' point at where to get in a 'convoluted way of saying not all of the Huge One's stocks will rise after he buys them', so be it. Call it that. :) I do not mind. I call it a 'feel'. If you ever figure out a way to take the emotional side, the 'feel' thing, the intangible, totally out of profitable trading, please let me know. I will gladly give you half my portfolio and easily get it all back with computer-driven trades in one day. :)

Lastly, you will note on your Stenz thread that I, using my 'plan', have just purchased VLGC at $1.84, about 8 1/2% below your entry point. If it moves a little later this afternoon, it is feasible that I could sell it at a 9% gain before you see one penny of profit. Feel free to argue with that. :wink:

Again, no disrespect intended in any of this. I understand that using my plan I will miss the rocketships that go-go-go! With the Huge One's advice, I would be selling at a 15% gain anyway. I like my lower downside/larger upside on the stocks I do buy over the 'what-ifs' if I occasionally miss a rocket that I would be selling (according to the Huge One's advice -- not yours) at 15%. (Getting back to your first point, you totally oversimplified the math by saying I would need twice the winners, etc. as percentages are the key here -- [/i]not numbers.)

I recognize and appreciate the stock-picking abilities of you and the Huge One. I follow it, do my own due diligence, throw in my 'feel', and make my selections. I have made profits on companies as large as Lucent (was there ever a bigger screaming BUY SIGN than when LU was at sevety-five cents a share?) and as small as that one you all hate to see -- Applied Digital Solutions, yes, ADSX. Call it a dog, but I made a lot on that perennial dog. :) :o My point is that I like your thoughts and expertise in computer-screening and I wish nothing better than for there to be NO ONE on this site in two years!! (Because we are ALL living on the same island as the man who invented the pet rock, drinking margaritas and passing the suntan lotion. 8) )

Happy and prosperous trading to all. :)

The Kid

[stenzrob]

Good luck with your plan.

[stenzrob]

First, I don't agree with your very first sentence which assumed that half the Huge One's selections would go up and half go down immediately after he bought them.
That's why I called it an assumption.
As I said, I am not here to argue.Yes, I can see that.
If you wish to go back and check his last ten - fifteen selections and see this, feel free. I believe more have gone below his purchase price before reaching his 15% gain 'sell' price than have gone straight up to that mark. Since your plan is based on the odds that it will go down after he buys it, it seems to me that it would be more in your interest to perform this research than it would be in mine, since I actually own zero of the HUGE picks.
As for re=applying my plan and someone getting in below the price that I bought a given stock at, that, with all due respect, is just plain silly. Obviously, and I am sure you know this, there is a law of diminishing returns as far as to following that advice.No sillier than only buying HUGE picks if they go down.
I think we would all admit at that point that the stock is (was) a dog. Ernie wouldn't bail, he would hold it for as long as it takes to get the 15%.
Which brings me to your third point. I admit there is no formula or statistic or computer-generated buy point at which I enter. It is purely a 'feel' thing. I understand you place an awful lot of technical analysis into your selections and I truly appreciate your diligence, however you must admit that if making money in the market was as simple as throwing numbers in a computer, well, then you wouldn't be here right now, would you?You're clearly familiar with my screen and my (admittedly sometimes inconsistent) methods for buying or selling candidiates from the list generated by the screen. Do you really believe that my TA is computer generated? The screen is generated by "throwing numbers into a computer", the buying and selling is based on my human interpretation of the market psychology for that stock as revealed by the price & volume. Do you hear me going on & on about MACD or stochastics or second differentials of the moving averages divided by the alpha rate of decay?! It's all about price & volume.
No, as we all know, there is an emotional side of buying and selling as well. ... If you ever figure out a way to take the emotional side, the 'feel' thing, the intangible, totally out of profitable trading, please let me know. I will gladly give you half my portfolio and easily get it all back with computer-driven trades in one day.You seem to correlate trading without emotion with using a computer to determine buy and sells. TA is not performed by computer, though secondary indicators are. I like to think that I do trade without emotion for the most part. It's just stocks and money to me. I don't "hope" that companies do well, I don't hold onto stocks if the chart doesn't support it. I will sell a stock that I have concluded won't outperform the market over the next two to three months and I don't care whether I'm up 5% or 150% or down 5% or 30%. I am only interested in having my money invested in the 5 or 6 stocks that I feel have the greatest chance of explosive price appreciation in that time period, going forward.
Lastly, you will note on your Stenz thread that I, using my 'plan', have just purchased VLGC at $1.84, about 8 1/2% below your entry point. If it moves a little later this afternoon, it is feasible that I could sell it at a 9% gain before you see one penny of profit. Feel free to argue with that.Yes, you already mentioned that this wasn't about ego or a pissing contest for you.

[talkingrobe]

The Kid,

I have a little different approach. I have my own picks long term and some in and out stocks.

Then I have MM HUGE picks. I try to buy after checking them out. Most of the time I get around to buying later on that day or the next. Sometimes that's good. Sometimes not. That is just because of timing.
If the stock takes off...well great! I just keep what I have.
If the stock goes down too much after I bought it (and I still like the stock). Then I have enough funds to buy more positions.
This way my percent is better at the target price. I also get in on the hot stocks.
So my last 4 trades were done at 20%+.

Strenzrob picks are good also. I buy some and wait to see what happens. I usually sell any position at 20%+.
That is just my comfort zone...nothing else.

Good luck,

[Risky]

Stenz...what's on the hotseat?

[The Kid]

Hey Risky,

Stenz has his own thread for asking him questions. :lol: :wink:

The Kid


(By the way, Stenz, I agree that your style of selecting stocks is not solely computer-generated. I apologize if it seemed that is what I insinuated. :oops: )

[MEA_1956]

Hey Risky,

Stenz has his own thread for asking him questions. :lol: :wink:

The Kid


(By the way, Stenz, I agree that your style of selecting stocks is not solely computer-generated. I apologize if it seemed that is what I insinuated. :oops: )
IMHO You are rude little KIDD that needs taken out behind the barn and have your Moma teach you a little respect and courtesy. It seems to me you are the only poster that has to offer an Apology in his post.===>MEA

[The Kid]

Mea,

You think that I need to be taught a little respect and courtesy? It was not me that wrote -

"Yes Earnie, and thank you. when he posts don't listen.===> MEA"

that disrespectful post lacking courtesy was written by you.

Since I do have respect, courtesy AND a sense of humor, I will not point out your spelling errors. I will point out, however, that I have never written anything about, or to, you, until prompted by your second post concerning me. If you are offended by my posts, I recommend that you kindly take your own advice and "don't listen." Any other chosen path may lead you to a road you do not wish to be on.

Happy stock-picking,

The Kid

[stenzrob]

It seems to me you are the only poster that has to offer an Apology in his post.===>MEA
I would like to apologize for not having apologized earlier.

[The Kid]

I just sold a small portion of my CCBI holdings at $20.74 I only got a partial order filled, then the stock slipped below the sell point -- Hate it when that happens.) Having bought it only seven trading days ago at $19.29 (see plan in first post,) I saw a 7 1/2% gain in a little over a week. That is to say half the target rate of 15% in far less than half the time. In my humble opinion, that is a successful trade. The annualized gains on seven and a half percent in seven trading days is, if I may say so myself :oops: , rather huge :shock: .

With thanks to the Huge One for turning me onto two of these stocks, I am currently looking into AXL, LU, ADSX and PRX.

Happy investing,

The Kid

[mrmarket]

I just sold a small portion of my CCBI holdings at $20.74 I only got a partial order filled, then the stock slipped below the sell point -- Hate it when that happens.) Having bought it only seven trading days ago at $19.29 (see plan in first post,) I saw a 7 1/2% gain in a little over a week. That is to say half the target rate of 15% in far less than half the time. In my humble opinion, that is a successful trade. The annualized gains on seven and a half percent in seven trading days is, if I may say so myself :oops: , rather huge :shock: .

With thanks to the Huge One for turning me onto two of these stocks, I am currently looking into AXL, LU, ADSX and PRX.

Happy investing,

The Kid

According to another poster on this board, if you don't get your 15% within four to six weeks, it is not a successful trade.

[stenzrob]

I just sold a small portion of my CCBI holdings at $20.74 WHY? Was there a technical reason, is the stock now fully valued, was this your target all along, or what? Your diary entry serves no purpose to me or anyone else if there is nothing I can learn from it.
Having bought it only seven trading days ago at $19.29 (see plan in first post,) I saw a 7 1/2% gain in a little over a week. That is to say half the target rate of 15% in far less than half the time.Looking at the chart, you could have done a lot better by selling for a 4% gain after only two days. I have bought stocks that have gone up 2% in the first ten minutes after I bought them - should I sell for the immense annualized gain? Once again, this is not even a plan, much less a strategy. My impression is that you're just somewhat randomly trading stocks picked by others.
see http://www.yourdictionary.com/ahd/p/p0065200.html
parasite:
1. An organism that grows, feeds, and is sheltered on or in a different organism while contributing nothing to the survival of its host.
2. a. One who habitually takes advantage of the generosity of others without making any useful return.
2. b. One who lives off and flatters the rich; a sycophant.
3. A professional dinner guest, especially in ancient Greece.

[The Kid]

"According to another poster on this board, if you don't get your 15% within four to six weeks, it is not a successful trade."

Huge One, I, and I would think you, politefully do not agree with the 'other poster' regarding this trade.


Stenz, my boy, are you calling me a parasite? :( I thought we were fast becoming friends. I have seen many others state their buys and sells and percenatges in here. Am I being held to a higher standard by you?

To answer your question, yes, I saw it was up more in less time. I debated pulling the trigger then. I didn't. I went in to the trade planning on following the advice on Mr. Market. However, having realized half the gain in less than half the time, I pulled out as I was not as huge as Mr. Market and others on CCBI. I still own it, just a smaller amount.

I am sorry I am not able to talk about stocks as proficiently and detailed as you can. I came to this sight to learn, listen and make money. I hope to stick around so that I can learn from others in here like you and Mr. Market. You two have apparently been very successful. I would like to be that $ucce$$ful.

Lastly, can you please do me a favor before you inconsiderately call me names again? Ask Mr. Huge how many members there are here at the website. Next, note how many views a lot of these threads get and how few replies/posts there are. Did it ever occur to you that the true parasites are the ones signing up, buying all the recommendations at the prescribed times, making money and NEVER contributing? Have you ever thought of that? They are the silent parasites.

I like to write. I like to talk. I like to listen. I like to trade stocks. I like to read your advice and that of others. But I don't like to be called names just because I like to place posts on a message board. Silly me. I thought that's what message boards were for. :oops:

[The Kid]

I have just sold half my DHI position at $42.97 this morning -- Monday. As posted earlier, I bought it twoo weeks ago on a Monday at $39.20. While I still LOVE the company, I sold my half position this morning as I have realized a 9 1/2 percent gain in only two weeks. Looking at the company's chart, that is a decent two week run-up for this very successful company in a short time. I still believe in the company and have a position, but I never shy away from a nearly ten percent gain in two weeks. Following the advice of the Huge One, I will now re-invest the money in PRX, another company I heard about here, and LU, which I have followed for a very long-time. Both have dipped around 8% in the last two weeks, providing what I believe to be good entry point.

Happy and prosperous investing to all. :)

The Kid

[Dave]

One easy way to maximize your gains on $$$MR. MARKET$$$'s picks is to simply follow the price closely and use a trailing stop-loss as they go up. Using this method you could continue to ride a stock with good momentum for some extra % gains with minimal risk. Just be careful to adjust things along with general market trends.

Dave

[The Kid]

Thank you, Dave.

I think I will do that with the rest of my DHI holdings, as I really like that company.

Continuing with my plan, I picked up the Huge One's selection, PRX, at $67.85 this morning. That is more than 6% off the price the stock was at when it was recommended on this website. As the fundamentals look very sound to me, I think I got it at a very nice price. If it continues, as predicted by the Huge One, to rise from here, I can get out with a 15% gain at $78.03 instead of waiting for $83.70 to experience the same 15% if I had bought it at $72.40.

With very quick research, it appears about 85% -- not 50% -- of the Huge one's selections this fall have gone down below the price he bought them at before gaining the 15% he looks for. Although this is only based upon recent data, I stand behind my method of waiting for his recommended stocks to slip a little before buying them.

His picks, obviously, have proven to be very $uce$$ful. All I am trying to do, as noted in the first post of this thread, is to expand my profit potential while down-sizing my risk on his selections. If I continue to buy his quality stocks using this plan, I think I will be able to thank him by buying him a huge tray of meats and cheeses for the holidays. 8)

Continued happy and prosperous investing,

The Kid

[The Kid]

Just sold my VLGC at $2.23. Since I got in at $1.84, I sold it for a sweet gain of more than 21% in less than two weeks. :) I know Stenzrob thinks this one could really fly, but 21% in thirteen days is an amazing annualized gain and I will take it.

I put the proceeds and those from more of my CCBI holdings (4% gain in three weeks) to a purchase of SSNC, a stock in the Huge One's Thanksgiving dump that I really like.

I note only a few people have voted in the poll above. :( Please feel free to. So far, in less than a month, my plan has been working out quite well. I post my trades not to boast or brag but just in case any of you wish to 'play along at home'. :D If any of the members wish to follow my plan (getting in to VLGC at $1.84, CCBI at $19.29, DHI at $39.20 and PRX at $67.85 all seem to be wise decisions now,) please feel free to. Not only would you be richer to have done it, but you don't have to worry about me calling you a parasite, as my stated goal when I joined is that we all become rich and live on the same island as the man who invented the pet rock. :lol: 8)

Happy Thanksgiving,

The Kid

[Dave]

I think if you back-test this a bit you will see how it may be flawed. The problem is, and I think Stenz said this as well, that if you wait for a pullback to buy, you can miss out on a solid winner. What can also happen is that the pullback can last a LOT longer than you want it to. I can give you a nice example: NCEN. I used the HUGE one's methods and picked this one, and bought it at a post-split price of around $26/share. I then sold at a post-split price of $29/share, and then it abruptly pulled way back to around $23/share. I thought, gee what a great time to buy! Well, I did, and 4 months later, I finally sold. During that time I missed out on 4 other winners that I would have bought had I not been "stuck" in NCEN at the time. I did not mind being "stuck" in NCEN, as it is a VERY solid company, but that pullback lasted a LOT longer than I had hoped. I guess what I am saying is, you win some, and you win some that take a lot longer than the other ones you win, but if it is working for you, that is all that matters!

I, for one, appreciate you posting your buys and sells, as most people don't do that.

-Dave

[The Kid]

Dave,

Thanks. I see your point, and acknowledge I may miss some high fliers with this approach. In your example, it seems you made your profit, buying at $26 then selling at $29, but then you wanted to re-load on the same stock. I am not sure if it still met the Huge One's criteria at that point. I understand what you are saying about being stuck in a stock, so I am currently holding six-seven so I can hopefully always get out of something if I NEED to buy another stock. From what I have seen, it seems most of the Huge One's stocks have gone down a little after he purchased them, so until proven otherwise, I will stick to the 'plan.' It has worked so far. :)

Happy Thanksgiving,

The Kid

[stenzrob]

It has worked so far.Indeed it has. Keep up the good work, Kid.

[The Kid]

Stenz,

As I am sure you know, it is so hard to 'read' people over the internet. Therefor, I am unsure if you were being complimentary (due to the recent results).....or sarcastic (due to the short period of time the results have accumulated.) Therefor, I will reserve comment on your comment. :lol: 8) :wink: :lol:

[Dave]

Stenz is a nice guy, I am sure he meant it as it reads. I might add one thing, and that is to make sure when your target stock pulls back some, it is not based on news. I would say that method would work well if you are careful and buy only the ones that pull back for no apparent reason, or along with the market but at a greater percentage. If you buy a stock that pulls back because of missed earnings, or perhaps a good but not great earnings report, then you may get stuck in it for 3+months. With NCEN, I got stuck because of a general pullback in mortgage-related stocks, even though the raise in rates and slowdown in refis did not affect NCEN's production. I am not smart enough to predict interest rates and such, or how the street will judge their affects on a stock, so there was little I could do.
A good example for this would have been HELE. It was bought prior to earnings, and was on a nice uptrend. They missed only slightly, and pulled way back. Had you bought at its lowest point or around 19, you could have sold shortly after for a nice gain, even though it is still 2.50 below the original buy-in price. Had you not picked that lowest point, you would be stuck in that one probably until next earnings report. Of course if you opted not to buy because it pulled back for a reason, then you would be safe and looking at the next one...

Sorry for the rambling and stuff, but I am hung over.

Dave

[stenzrob]

Just sold my VLGC at $2.23. Since I got in at $1.84, I sold it for a sweet gain of more than 21% in less than two weeks. :) I know Stenzrob thinks this one could really fly, but 21% in thirteen days is an amazing annualized gain and I will take it.
You're applying "mr market" style trading to "stenzrob" picks, which is not appropriate. My picks are designed to be home runs, but some will strike out. The key is, when that one sweet pitch right down the middle comes, you've got to swing for the fence, Kid. You got in cheaper than I did, but my patience may be paying off, since VLGC is up another 20% today on record volume. First I was patient sitting on it from $2.01 down to $1.75 because the trend was still valid, and now I will be patient to take my profit.

[The Kid]

Stenz, I hear ya. I know VLGC could be huge. I also know that unfortunately, I do not have unlimited cash. I really wanted to buy another stock yesterday, thus I had to sell something. Selling a very volatile stock I had made 20% on in two weeks seemed like the way to go. When I start looking backwards and having regrets about very profitable trades, that is when I am in trouble. As far as applying the Huge One's principles to one of your stocks.......well, I guess that is what makes it my trade. If I had made twenty percent on one of the Huge One's stocks in the same short time period, I would have been very happy. I am still very happy. VLGC....CBBI.....URBN......it don't make a difference to me, as long as the end result is CASH. :D

[stenzrob]

......it don't make a difference to me, as long as the end result is CASH.Amen, brother.

[The Kid]

I just saw the following quote from Mr.Market himself in a post on his "personal homepage and stock portfolio" thread.


What I do know is that if I sell all of the stocks that drop 8%, I would have made a lot less money than if I had held them to their 15% target.


I do not know if the Huge One voted in my poll in the first post of this thread, but after having read his own statement above, I wonder how he would have voted? Using my 'plan' from this thread's first post, it seems there are many of his picks which do indeed go down below his 'buy' price. Applying my plan would provide even HUGER gains on those stocks. Since we all know (see 44 straight 15% winners thread) that all his selections eventually go up 15% or more, I like my chances of making even bigger gains on the Huge One selections I get in on.

Once again, I realize I may miss a few high fliers, and I note that the recent WSBK pick has not yet (if ever) dropped below the 'buy' price. If you look at the last dozen picks, you will see that virtually all of them did indeed get below the 'buy' price before reaching the 15% sell target, thus enabling you, the investor, to make 17, 18, or 20% on nearly all of them if you sold them at the target price (after buying at below the 'buy' price.)

Once again, I thank the Huge One, Stenz and others to 'raising my consciousness' of these stocks :) .

Happy and prosperous investing to all,

The Kid

[The Kid]

With proceeds from a biotech company I've been holding which reached an 18-month high today (CRA) and some earlier proceeds from selling some of my CCBI holdings, I purchased LENS today at $11.97. I got around to buying it today after finally having enough time to do my research on Stenz's holdings. I wish I had done my research and picked up the stock about a week ago at %10.50, but c'est la vie. :oops: :) Having sold VLGC at a 21% profit after purchasing it at $1.84 thirteen days earlier, I really wanted to be in on another Stenz special. :D To me, of his current holdings, it came down to LENS, NTST (which just plain went up too much for me today to buy it. :( ) and VLGC (again.)

Beacoup kudos to Stenz for his VLGC pick which is doing great since I sold it. :oops:

Happy and prosperous investing to all,

The Kid

[Mi6op]

Welcome to the LENS bandwagon, every day I read more about this stock and fine it more and more appealing. I was goign to sell around $15 but think it has enough to make it to the 20 range.

[The Kid]

I think it will be a fun ride (that LENS bandwagon.)

In other news, my having purchased at $39.20 (following my plan,) my remaining DHI holdings have now hit a 15% profit ($45.08.) I really, really like the company and the news I've been hearing about the sector over the last ten days. With that in mind, I believe I will hold on until I see a 20% profit -- $47.04, which I feel the stock could reach by the end of this week.

The SSNC I bought (see SSNC thread) is up over 7% in four trading days. While not a Huge One selection (although it was in his most recent data dump,) I hope some of you followed me on that one. :)

[The Kid]

Who knew? It seems 12/02 or 12/03 would have been a nice little day to trade everything I owned. At that point, everything I owned was up, some almost to 15% levels, others at around 4 - 5% in less than a week. It is factual that if I had sold then, I would have more money in my account than I have now. I am currently down about 8% overall in my entire account in about a week (as one can tell, I can be an aggressive investor.) But unlike in the past, I am not panicking, as all the stocks I own are quality companies. I want to thank the Huge One and Stenz for opening my consciousness to many of these companies. I have full confidence that in the near future the companies they interested me in, along with others I have picked on my own, will be back on track. I thank them for giving me confidence since I now own more quaility stocks than I used to. I've played the fool before. It's a fine role for a court jester, not a good one for an investor.

[The Kid]

I couldn't resist buying more DHI after it dropped off, on what I deem as little if not no news. It fell more than 8% and was below what I originally bought it for. So I sold my remaining CCBI at about a 7 1/2% profit and bought more DHI at $38.95. I aslo sold my PRX for a small 3 1/2% gain just to have some cash around in case I see what I deem is another bargain soon.

[stenzrob]

From cbs marketwatch movers & shakers yesterday,
"Shares of homebuilders declined after mortgage provider Washington Mutual (WM) warned of an earnings shortfall as fourth-quarter mortgage volumes were expected to be half that of the third quarter. Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) fell nearly 8 percent despite reporting late Monday fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that rose above year-earlier levels and topped expectations, and raised its 2004 outlook. Among other homebuilders, Centex (CTX) fell almost 5 percent, Toll Bros. (TOL) dropped more than 5 percent, Lennar (LEN) lost almost 4 percent and Pulte Homes (PHM) gave up nearly 5 percent."

This from today,
"11:39am 12/10/03 Homebuilders extend slide amid mortgage demand concerns (TOL, HOV, CTX, DHI, LEN, WM) By Tomi Kilgore

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Shares of homebuilders continued to slide amid concerns of declining mortgage demand, despite recent better-than-expected earnings reports from sector heavyweights. Toll Brothers (TOL) dropped $1.70, or 4.3 percent, to $37.75 after reporting fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $1.19 a share, a nickel a share above consensus analyst expectations. The stock had slumped 5.2 percent on Tuesday after Washington Mutual (WM) said fourth-quarter mortgage volume was expected to be half that of third-quarter levels. The stock and has now dropped 12 percent since closing at an all-time high of $43 on Dec. 1. Hovnanian (HOV) , which reported better-than-expected earnings late Monday, was last down $4.29, or 4.8 percent, at $84.71, after losing 7.7 percent on Tuesday. Centex (CTX) was down $3.83 at $103.68, D.R. Horton (DHI) gave up $2.18 to $40.20 and Lennar (LEN) lost $3.37 to $92.24, after losing $5.29, $2.09 and $3.89, respectively, on Tuesday"

This is why O'Neill says to pay attention to the individual stock, it's industry, and the market in general. If homebuilders are now out of favor, you're unlikely to see much gain from DHI soon.

[The Kid]

Thanks Stenz, but I did see those reports as I was watching CNBC most of the day. I think dropping 8% was more of a knee-jerk reaction. I knew of the reduction in mortgage demand before I re-upped, buying more shares of DHI. I just really like what I see in the company. I could be wrong here, only time will tell. When I said not much news, I meant specifically concerning DHI. I do, of course, understand that the mortgage news could greatly impact the amount of homes being built etc. I personally think that by the time it may/does, I will have made my fifteen percent. (Unless everybody who has made their money with homebuilders over the last four-five years decides its time to exit at once.... :( )

[RL]

I also bought mor of DHI today. As long as people buy homes the builders will make money. In many ways It,s a better investment than stocks. Andthere Is no foreign competition.