DHI ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Veterans Day Pick

[mrmarket]

Sometimes $$$MR. MARKET$$$ just loves to prove to the world that he’s oh so so good. Last week, the homebuilding stocks were downgraded by an ANALyst who decided they were priced too high due to the fact that our economy was heating up. The theory is that when the economy heats up, interest rates will rise and homes will no longer be affordable. Ho ho ho…you murder me.

I’ve got news for you, Mr. and Mrs. ANALyst. The economy is heating up because the job market is stronger, consumers are feeling better and they are willing to spend more money. The reason interest rates are going to go up is the very same reason why consumers are going to be MORE likely to buy homes, not less likely. It’s true rates will creep up, but the absolute rates are still very very very low. (I project average 30-year mortgage rates of 6.3% in 2004).

While the red hot pace of new home sales may leave some skeptical observers wondering if a significant slowdown may be in the offing, expect home sales to remain strong through the end of 2004. Mortgage rates will remain accommodating through the period, and the improving economy will leave consumers comfortable about taking the plunge to buy an expensive asset such as a home, even if interest rates move up modestly. There has never been a better time to own a home. Exceptionally low rates enable renters or those who own modest homes to afford their first home or something nicer than what they have. Do you remember when rates were in the teens? Guess what? People were buying houses then, also.

Today I bought DHI (D.R. Horton) at 40.23. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 46.42. Here’s why I like DHI:

DHI stock is up 138% over the last 12 months, yet its P/E is still a humble 11. It’s R^2 correlation coefficient, over the same period, is a rock solid 0.89 which indicates price momentum that has been incredibly steady.

DHI’s boss also agrees with $$$MR. MARKET$$$. "The best thing that could happen to D.R. Horton and the home building industry in general is for interest rates to go up about 200 to 250 basis points," said CEO Don Tomnitz. "I say Horton wins both ways if rates go down, that increases the pool of affordable buyers. If rates go up, the economy is doing well, and our second- and third-time home buyers are doing well."

DHI has recorded tremendous sales and profit growth over the past decade. They are the #2 US homebuilder. Its sales have risen at a compounded annual growth rate of 43% over that time, and its earnings per share have posted compounded gains of about 30%. DHI is, simply put, an earnings machine. They’ve proven, over a long period of time that they know how to grow their business and their formula works. Horton's excellent performance stems from an active takeover program plus a focus on internal growth. The company has also benefited from its concentration in demographically favorable areas such as California and Arizona. (Sorry to say, there will be more homebuilding in these areas due to the wildfires.) On top of these factors, Horton is benefiting from its large size and financial muscle, which give it a major advantage in obtaining big land holdings in desired areas. Expect these conditions to drive further growth in coming periods.


D.R. Horton's net sales orders jumped 21% to $2.41 billion in the fiscal third quarter ended Sept. 30, as orders rose 17% to 10,114 homes. ANALysts expect D.R. Horton to post a 41% profit rise to $1.30 a share in the fiscal fourth quarter. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ knows that they will do $1.41 a share next quarter.

ANALysts are projecting $4.33/share in 2004. Even with the paltry P/E of 11.26, this projects to a stock price of $48.76. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ projects 2004 earnings of $5.22 which will get the stock price to $58.88. These gains will be driven by a 10% increase in home closings, and a modest rise in average selling prices. In reality, the P/E will most likely expand as these homebuilders post quarter after quarter of magnificent earnings. Indeed, buyer-friendly mortgage rates will remain through 2006, so valuations for most major builders will expand to low double-digit forward price/earnings ratios.

Even though DHI is a mega Godzilla homebuilder, its structure is still entrepreneurial. Horton has 50 profit center managers who have control over their local markets and can land big bonuses if their profits are good. They work hard for themselves and, as a result, for the company.

DHI declared a quarterly cash dividend of 7 cents per share, a 17 percent increase over its payout in the same period a year earlier. Since reducing dividends is a Wall Street disaster, DHI clearly indicated to the world that they have full confidence in the company’s ability to generate free cash flow by stepping up their dividend. That’s not enough to convince anyone? Try this one. the Company has repurchased approximately $29.3 million (980,300 shares) of its common stock in its fourth fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2003. For the fiscal year then ended, common stock repurchases totaled approximately $58.9 million (2,652,800 shares). The Company has approximately $175.6 million remaining on its stock repurchase authorization.

Here’s the big boss gloating, “We are extremely pleased with the Company's double-digit sales increase. The excellent sales results in our fourth quarter, combined with our strong backlog, position the Company for a strong start to another record year in fiscal 2004." DHI’s backlog in June was $4.0 billion.

Key financial ratios also point to DHI as being a top tier performer. Return on assets is 8.4% while Return on Equity is 23%.

DHI is really an example of a great $$$MR. MARKET$$$ momentum stock. This stock is like a freight train moving faster and faster. True, eventually there will be macroeconomic conditions that will slow this train down, but while it is slowing down, its stock price will keep going up. There’s just too much inertia for anyone to step in front of this train and stop it right now. So nice try Mr. ANALyst…we’ll see you under the tracks. Next time, why don’t you pick Baylor to beat Oklahoma? You might have a better chance of being correct.

[jiesen]

Sounds like a winner. I'm in!

[The Kid]

Grown-Up Homebuilders Ready to Run, Analyst Says

By Meredith Derby
Staff Reporter
11/10/2003 03:39 PM EST
Click here for more stories by Meredith Derby


A wave of buying by large-cap investors looking for earnings growth is likely to lift shares in the homebuilding space, a Citigroup analyst said Monday in raising price targets on 11 stocks.

Other factors in the homebuilders' favor, according to analyst Stephen Kim, include mostly positive 2004 earnings revisions, easier order comparisons going into the first quarter and the group's habit of rallying in the winter.


Specifically, Kim believes the large-cap growth investor will be interested in the stocks now that several of the companies have market caps of $6 billion to $8 billion. Three years ago, he said, the largest homebuilder's market cap was about $1.2 billion.

In addition to the target price increases, Kim raised estimates on Hovnanian (HOV:NYSE - commentary - research) to $7.94 a share from $7.75 a share for 2003 and to $8.95 a share from $8.75 a share in 2004. The stock target price was raised to $115 from $98. Shares of Hovnanian were recently down $2.73, or 3.3%, at $79.89.

Earnings estimates on Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE - commentary - research) were also upped to $3.46 a share from $3.43 a share in 2003, and to $4.10 a share from $3.90 a share in 2004. Kim's price target on Toll Brothers stock is now $50, up from $41. Still, shares of the company were recently down 64 cents, or 1.7%, at $37.02.

Meanwhile, Kim lifted his Beazer Homes (BZH:NYSE - commentary - research) target price to $159 from $144; Centex (CTX:NYSE - commentary - research) to $149 from $121; [size=14]D.R. Horton (DHI:NYSE - commentary - research) to $56, from $45[size/] [b/]; KB Home (KBH:NYSE - commentary - research) to $101 from $92; Lennar (LEN:NYSE - commentary - research) to $128 from $109; MDC Holdings (MDC:NYSE - commentary - research) to $90. from $78; Pulte (PHM:NYSE - commentary - research) to $133, up from $116; Ryland (RYL:NYSE - commentary - research) to $123 from $108; and Standard Pacific (SPF:NYSE - commentary - research) to $72, up from $65.

"With fundamentals, technicals, valuation trends and sentiment all positively aligned heading into fiscal year 2004, we expect the homebuilding group to continue its unprecedented rally for a fifth consecutive year," Kim wrote in a research note.


The author of this article likes DHI to reach $56. If it does, getting in at $39.20 as I did yesterday at close, would be sweet. Then again, I will probably sell before then and get on board for another of the Huge One's selections. :)

[The Kid]

Joe Kiernan just reported at 10:45 AM (CNBC) that UBS-Warburg is also just out with a report today favoring home-builders stocks and investors' confidence in them. They have already had a nice run-up this morning (first hour and fifteen minutes of trading), but I would expect them (including DHI) to rise a little more throughout the day. Before the report, DHI was around 40.45.

Happy trading!

The Kid

[Pivot Hound]

i'm in at 39.40 Senor Market....
I also bought CCBI at 21.00....

hopefully your picks can make me some cash money too... :lol:

[carlton02]

Ernie
You are HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Send to you the finest meats and cheeses.
Hurray for you...
$43.39--if this keeps up you will have to pick another

Congradulations :lol:

[vish]

Nice call on DHI Ernie. Today, after the market closed they announced HUGE earnings (1.46 vs 1.30 expected). They also raised guidance for the year to 4.50 to 4.60 per share. Should be a nice move upward tomorrow (already up after-hours).

Vish

[shannonkeo]

LOOKS GOOD!!! Another great pick Ernie!!!


UPDATE - D.R. Horton 4th-quarter profit up 69 pct
Wednesday November 12, 5:28 pm ET

(Adds outlook, stock price)
NEW YORK, Nov 12 (Reuters) - D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE:DHI - News), the No. 2 U.S. home builder, on Wednesday reported quarterly earnings that rose 69 percent to their highest on record, as relatively low mortgage rates brought home ownership within reach of more first-time buyers.

Arlington, Texas-based D.R. Horton earned $230.7 million, or $1.46 a diluted share in the fiscal fourth quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with $136.4 million, or 92 cents a diluted share, for the same quarter of fiscal 2002.

Analysts, on average, expected the company to earn $1.30 a share, according to Reuters Research, with a dozen estimates ranging from $1.22 to $1.44 a share.

According to Professional Builder magazine, D.R. Horton is the No. 2 U.S. home builder ranked according to housing revenue. A large part of its customers are first-time buyers.

Fourth-quarter consolidated revenue rose 32 percent to $2.9 billion, from $2.2 billion. Home building revenue increased 32 percent to $2.8 billion with 11,527 homes closed during the quarter compared with $2.1 billion and 9,554 homes closed in the year-ago quarter.

The company ended the quarter with a backlog of 15,488 homes valued at $3.7 billion, up 29 percent from 12,697 homes, or $2.8 billion, at Sept. 30, 2002.

Looking ahead, the company said it expected diluted earnings per share for the fiscal first-quarter ended Dec. 31, 2003, to be in the range of 90 to 95 cents a share.

For the full year 2003, D.R. Horton projected earnings in the range of $4.50 to $4.60 per share and revenue in the range of $9.5 billion to $9.7 billion, or 41,000 to 42,000 homes closed.

Analysts on average expected the company to earn 90 cents a share in the fiscal first quarter and $4.31 for the full fiscal year 2004, according to Reuters Research.

Before the release of its quarterly results, shares of D.R. Horton, on Wednesday closed at $41.39, up $1.41, about 3.5 percent, on the New York Stock Exchange (News - Websites) . The stock reached its year-high price of $42.58 on Nov. 6, 2003 and its low of $16.82 on Dec. 11, 2002.

[The Kid]

The only thing huger than Huge is the HUGE revenues stated by DHI!! :D

Huge One, do you ever consider staying for more than a 15% profit, if, for instance, you see great quarterly results like Horton has just posted and the company reaches your 15% mark in a few days or a week?[/b]

[mrmarket]

The only thing huger than Huge is the HUGE revenues stated by DHI!! :D

Huge One, do you ever consider staying for more than a 15% profit, if, for instance, you see great quarterly results like Horton has just posted and the company reaches your 15% mark in a few days or a week?[/b]

Can someone else please answer this question for the Kid? I just want to see if any of you have learned anything from me.

[blakerj1]

well you certainly are making a believer out of me. I must admit I was somewhat skeptical when i joined but i got in on DHI and am very happy that i did. i applaud your pick and look forward to learning as much as i can from you.

It is a rare person that takes the time to help and teach others less knowledgeable and for that I am extremely grateful. THANK YOU.

I look forward to your additional posting, especially the explainations are most helpful. Again - THANK YOU

blakerj1

[jiesen]

No, Kid, he won't hang onto it past his target. He'll sell it at that point with prejudice, because that's what his model indicates.

I on the other hand may just hang onto this one with a stop at 15% and move it up as the stock rockets to 20% or 30%, because it looks like this one is a real winner to me.

[stenzrob]

Huge One, do you ever consider staying for more than a 15% profit, if, for instance, you see great quarterly results like Horton has just posted and the company reaches your 15% mark in a few days or a week?
Can someone else please answer this question for the Kid? I just want to see if any of you have learned anything from me.
As I understand the concept, the sale is made at 15% because after a year or more of steadily increasing in price, having great fundamentals and still being undervalued, 15% is all it's got left in it. Then, it's on to another great stock that has virtually identical characteristics to see if it still has another 15% left in it. Sorry, maybe somebody else should answer that one from a different perspective.

[shannonkeo]

From my understanding, the MM process is very systematic, hence the 15%. He is looking for stocks that have solid earnings that have showed growth and a have shown a high times series regression (momentum?). His 15% number is from experience, as is his estimate of 4-6 weeks.

There is ever changing things going on in the market that could make your "best" selection quite different a month from now, so it is best to sell a relatively "tired" stock, take your 15% profit, and look for a "fresh" one.

Finding stocks that are hot in growth and have good earnings are used foremost for preservation of capital (no penny stock here if I understand correctly). This growth stock with get you the 15% you want, and then move on. If this doesn't occur quickly, you will at least not have a "lemon", so capital will not be lost.

As I understand it, earnings, earnings, earnings!!!!

[JrInvestor]

No, Mr Market does not hold any longer after it hits his target of 15%, unless it goes higher before he has a chance to execute his trade. I have seen where Mr. Market has made a purchase and part of his analysis determined that there would be a great earnings report in a few days. The great earnings report materialized, price went up 15% or more, Mr. Market sold his position and said Thank you very much.
Mr. Market does what ALL short term traders should do. Determine a point at which you want to sell AND sell it. For short term holding, this is the correct way to trade. Short term holders that make a pre-determined decision to sell and then when it hits their target decide ah, maybe I will hold onto this, it seems as though it will go higher, are in for a surprise when the time comes that profits are wiped out because they did not sell at their orginal price.

Good Luck,

[mrmarket]

Nice try ladies....before you fumble this some more, let me answer it one more time:

I buy a stock because it is moving up in price very fast relative to its valuation. Since I only hold for a predetermined 15% gain, I really don't need to get into a stock early. I only want to hold it while it is moving up fast.

Many of you like to report, post haste, that a stock continues to go up after I have sold it. What you forget to remind yourself is that the NEW stock that I bought (with the compounded profits from my old stock) is moving up FASTER than the old stock that I just sold.

So even though the old stock continues to go up 100% more after I have sold it, I never feel I have left money on the table since I'm on a brand new fresh and faster horse....


got it??? then tell me that you understand....

[The Kid]

Huge One, I understand, although, with all due respect, I do not necessarily agree. :oops: Just for arguements sake, let's say DHI reported today that they had made an astronomical $15.00 a share in earnings last quarter, and had made that announcement in the middle of the trading day. Would you still sell at 15% when you see the thing skyrocketing? Are you SURE that your new horse is a better galloper than the recent one?

[Karel]

... Would you still sell at 15% when you see the thing skyrocketing? Are you SURE that your new horse is a better galloper than the recent one?
Hey Kid, what's the deal about being sure? Neither could you be sure about the opposite. With perfect hindsight, you will be sure which stock went faster. But that is no deal. (Unless you prefer hindsight over real money.) For me, the next pick doesn't need to be faster than the stock I sold. As long as these picks make a HUGE annualized profit on average, I am not complaining (see picture on the left). If you can do better, good for you, and please show us in real time.

MrMarket sells at 15% because 15% is a nice compromise between greed and ambition on the one hand, and caution on the other hand, for the stocks his model turns up (with a confirmed run-up). It will work for the great majority of those stocks, under almost every condition. Even when the conditions are extremely negative, you have a fair chance of beating the market, as MrMarket did in 2001-2002. Which leads me to the conclusion:

MrMarket is HUGE !!

Regards,

Karel

[The Kid]

Karel,

(I'm still laughing.) Please, no need to be so defensive of your hero. (Still laughing.) Trust me, I, like you, appreciate the Huge One's selections, his advice, this fine website...........otherwise I would not be here. :)

It was a simple question for him. :lol: Between the after-hours trading and before morning bell I just figured we could have a nice little discussion. I didn't realize you went around carrying his jockstrap, or in this case, his stale meats and cheeses. (Laughing again)

I realize that the main reason for his approach is discipline, plain and simple. If he were to allow even one stock to go above his target price, then who is to say he doesn't eventually allow another. Then, he could say, well since I made X amount more than fifteen percent on the last trade, he might settle for less than fifteen percent on another. Before you know it, the 15% is out the window as a rule and chaos and guessing reigns. I understand all of that. That is probably why, with discipline, he stays to 15% as a strict rule.

But I would have appreciated hearing him say that, and not a surrogate. I much prefer the words of the king to the jester. :lol:

I do not look at any of this as a contest, nor a pissing match. I, and I would think most of the members, are here for one reason -- to make money. Take the money out of the equation, and I think this would be a lonely website (although I do love the writing style of the Huge One, I am not a reader of blogs.) But please, rest assured, I mean no disrespect to you, him, nor this website. As you can see, I like to write and I like to trade. Did I come to the wrong website?

No offense, Karel, and thanks for my morning laugh.

[talkingrobe]

I had noticed that out of the last 12 stocks Mr.Market sold:
4 still had some run in them
3 are walking very slow
5 are running backwards

It doesn't sound like a good idea to hang on to them longer. I would go for the faster horse...

I have made about 20% on the last 4 trades. That is because I didn't get a chance to buy at the same time as Mr.Market. I still sold at his target or close to it.

Mr. Market is great!

[Cyberacorn]

What's better? A stock that gains 50% in 2 months or buying five different stocks over two months and realizing 10% gains each (after comm) and re-investing the gains in the next stock purchase. My math may not be great, but option one yields a 50% return and option two yields a 61% return.

I like the strategy Mr. Market uses. BTW, for those that are curious, using the 15% threshold will double your money every five trades.

Cheers,
CyberAcorn (holding DHI, LEND, and OHB among others)

[jonnieocean]

From my standpoint, homebuilders is one of the healthiest industries out there that I can understand. Remember the Buffett motto. Buy stocks that you can understand and know what they are in business for.
I know Ernie sells at around 15% gain but some stocks are just worth holding onto for a longer time. After a 15% gain, I would hold onto DHI and watch it everyday. If it drops 7%or more off of its high, get out of it. LAst Friday early in the day I sold all my homebuilding stocks after a more than good run up in that industry. They were dropping on heavy volume which means the "big boys" were shedding them. I saved myself several thousand dollars by selling early in the day instead of waiting for the markets close. I am back into homebuilders as of Tuesday and will maintain a close vigil for any selling on heavy volume. I believe this is called momentum trading. If you involve yourself in this type of trading, then it becomes a part time job and as such requires at least an hour or two each day the same as a part time job would.
Ernie makes damn fine picks but do your own research as well on any stocks you plan to trade.
Best regards,
Jon

[stenzrob]

Karel,

(I'm still laughing.) Please, no need to be so defensive of your hero. (Still laughing.) Trust me, I, like you, appreciate the Huge One's selections, his advice, this fine website...........otherwise I would not be here. :)

It was a simple question for him. :lol: Between the after-hours trading and before morning bell I just figured we could have a nice little discussion. I didn't realize you went around carrying his jockstrap, or in this case, his stale meats and cheeses. (Laughing again)

I realize that the main reason for his approach is discipline, plain and simple. If he were to allow even one stock to go above his target price, then who is to say he doesn't eventually allow another. Then, he could say, well since I made X amount more than fifteen percent on the last trade, he might settle for less than fifteen percent on another. Before you know it, the 15% is out the window as a rule and chaos and guessing reigns. I understand all of that. That is probably why, with discipline, he stays to 15% as a strict rule.

But I would have appreciated hearing him say that, and not a surrogate. I much prefer the words of the king to the jester. :lol:

I do not look at any of this as a contest, nor a pissing match. I, and I would think most of the members, are here for one reason -- to make money. Take the money out of the equation, and I think this would be a lonely website (although I do love the writing style of the Huge One, I am not a reader of blogs.) But please, rest assured, I mean no disrespect to you, him, nor this website. As you can see, I like to write and I like to trade. Did I come to the wrong website?

No offense, Karel, and thanks for my morning laugh.
No offense ?!
"Carrying his jockstrap ... stale meats and cheeses" ?
"prefer the words of the king to the jester" ?
Ernie's e-mail address is available; if you only wanted an answer to your questions, you could simply ask. My impression is that this is a "pissing match" for you. I, for one, found this post of yours to be in particularly poor taste.

[hysderek]

Intresting to compare these charts. or maybe not have a look.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=PTF&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=dhi

[carribean_mike]

I have decided to spilt my portfolio into four components.

1) various ad-hoc buy/sell strategies
2) Gold stocks
3) Mr. Market stocks
4) Stenz stocks

YTD Gold has been best performer. Gold is in a bull market - I just buy and hold.

Mr. Market picks are second. The primary reason is his 15% sell rule. Although I haven't consistently followed it - it continues to save my butt, since knowing when to sell is so much harder than buying.

[mrmarket]

Stenz...

"The Kid" = Bec1

Do the math and ignore the trolls.

[stenzrob]

I have decided to spilt my portfolio into four components.

1) various ad-hoc buy/sell strategies
2) Gold stocks
3) Mr. Market stocks
4) Stenz stocks

I am deeply honored to be included right up there somewhere just under "ad hoc".

[MEA_1956]

The only thing huger than Huge is the HUGE revenues stated by DHI!! :D

Huge One, do you ever consider staying for more than a 15% profit, if, for instance, you see great quarterly results like Horton has just posted and the company reaches your 15% mark in a few days or a week?[/b]

Can someone else please answer this question for the Kid? I just want to see if any of you have learned anything from me.
Yes Earnie, and thank you. when he posts don't listen.===> MEA

[JARM]

DHI stock is up 138% over the last 12 months, yet its P/E is still a humble 11. It’s R^2 correlation coefficient, over the same period, is a rock solid 0.89 which indicates price momentum that has been incredibly steady.

-------

Could someone please explain the "R^2 correlation coefficient" for me and how it is determined? Thanks in advance.

[mrmarket]

DHI stock is up 138% over the last 12 months, yet its P/E is still a humble 11. It’s R^2 correlation coefficient, over the same period, is a rock solid 0.89 which indicates price momentum that has been incredibly steady.

-------

Could someone please explain the "R^2 correlation coefficient" for me and how it is determined? Thanks in advance.

JARM

R^2 is a measure of the closeness of fit of a range of data to a straight line. Stocks with high correlation coefficients have prices that are moving up in a straight line. My theory is that the inertia of this price momentum is least likely to deviate over 4 to 6 weeks.

[DocDavidW]

I have been a MrMarket follower for over two years. Does that mean that I am obligated to buy and sell each stock when and where he does? Of course not. We are all free to try to beat his strategy (or at least match it). The thing that is unique about MrMarket is that he uses a predefined strategy. This means that his performance is determined solely by his strategy, not by any second guessing or fine tuning. What this demonstrates is is that his selection strategy consistently beats the market using a very simple sell strategy. By the way, he is not absolutely limited to 15% gains. If the stock gaps up, he will gladly accept the extra margin (as would any sane investor).

David

[The Kid]

I didn't know the guys on the old Board of Directors, and I don't know the guys on the new board of directors. All I do know, is that judging by the share price the last couple of days, somebody doesn't like the change. :cry:

(I can't seem to copy and paste the article for some reason, but they released a news release about putting four new independent directors in, and relieving six of their old duties. - summary)

[jiesen]

Ernie,

You've got 3 picks - AXL, DHI, and URBN hovering around the 14% mark, ready to blow past your target any day now. Looks like we're in for another week of profit taking! Congratulations on these excellent picks.

You are HUGE!!!!!!!

[mrmarket]

Reuters
D.R. Horton quarterly profit rises by a third
Wednesday January 21, 4:10 pm ET


NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE:DHI - News), one of the largest U.S. home builders, on Wednesday said quarterly earnings rose 66 percent, easily passing Wall Street's estimates, as the housing market's sizzle continued unabated.
Arlington, Texas-based D.R. Horton earned $185.6 million, or 78 cents a diluted share, in the fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 31, 2003, compared with $111.8 million, or 50 cents a diluted share, the prior year.

Analysts, on average, expected the company to earn 62 cents a share, according to Reuters Research, with 10 estimates ranging from 61 cents to 65 cents a share.

[jiesen]

as howard dean would say,

WAHOO!

[mrmarket]

as howard dean would say,

WAHOO!

Note how their revised estimates are now approaching the numbers that $$$MR. MARKET$$$ predicted.

[jiesen]

you are the MAN!

[casinoboy3]

66% is a third?
This might reach your target tomorrow. You are HUGE.

[scifos]

Nice, I got into DHI about a month before Mr.Market when it was at 25.23(price adjusted for split) but got out in early Dec at 29.07 but with another huge quarter of growth I'm thinking of getting back in at about $29 again. Can DHI reach 33.35 (+15% from $29) ?

[jiesen]

it not only can, but WILL gain another 15%, but perhaps not as quickly as the next -even better- $$MM pick will reach its 15% target... because that's what the model says, right $$MM?

see, I think I'm getting this, it's easy!

[scifos]

Yes, I have not found anything negative about DHI, and I think I have a few extra dollars around. But I'm also looking at PBR and wondering which one is better near term. Any opinions?

[mrmarket]

Yes, I have not found anything negative about DHI, and I think I have a few extra dollars around. But I'm also looking at PBR and wondering which one is better near term. Any opinions?

apples and oranges

[jiesen]

It's already a 17% profit for me, so I'm out!

Thanks again, $$MM, for this awesome, awesome pick.

YOU ARE HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!

[tscanlon]

Indeed I'm out with a 17% gain as well at 30.75. I too must toast Mr. Market on another $$HUGE$$ pick!

Any preference on the finest meats and cheeses to present to his HUGENESS???

[Karel]

POP! out at 30.95! Even whales feel small when MrMarket takes a dive!

[mrmarket]

I'm still in...I was asleep at the switch again. Maybe today it reaches 30.95?

[The Kid]

Huge One,

I'm like you. I fell asleep at the wheel on this one. I'm in twice, at $$39.30 and at $38.95 (Pre-split prices.) I forgot it split - duh :oops: - and wasn't thinking it was around the 15% gain level, which of course it is. I think I will wait for about $31 - $32 a share (post split price) and make almost 20%. As I have said before, I really like this company. But there are so many other Huge One selctions to buy! :)

Thanks again,

the Kid

[Karel]

I'm still in...
So much the worse for the whales :)

[The Kid]

I'll tell ya what, I just looked at this company again and I like what I see. I understand some people expect interest rates to rise, which in theory would slow down mortgage lending and thus home-building, but I don't think Mr. Greenspan is going to lower than any time soon, after listening to him the past two days on CNBC (yes, I am one of the few people who actually listens to his entire testimony before Congress. :oops: :( )

The way he supported permently installing the President's tax cuts in his testimony when questioned by Democrats, I really don't see him upsetting the tax-cut led economy revival by raising interest rates any time soon, at least for six months. And at that point, he may get some friendly persuasion from thos in the current administration to wait until after the election.

Having said all that, I still love the fundamentals of the company and I think I will actually hold onto it looking for a 20 - 25% gain or better. (I know that is against the guidelines set forth by the Huge One, but I really like this company.) I am currently up about 17% on my average share price of (post-split) $26.05.