Tatnic's Terrific Trades

[mrmarket]

Tatnic now has his own thread where he will share with us his winning trades. Thanks Tatnic!

[New-born baby]

I have anxiously awaited this new thread! Tatnic, put 'em down for us to watch! I really like it when one posts his reasoning about how to pick and enter/exit a trade. Please put up some picks for us! and Thanks!

[Websman]

Bring on the huge picks!

[Tatnic]

Tatnic now has his own thread where he will share with us his winning trades. Thanks Tatnic!

Hot off the presses....TMB

[Tatnic]

Hot off the presses....TMB

Sorry I didn't see this thread earlier...in the future, as soon as my alerts pop up I'll post them here. I may or may not buy them, and it goes without saying that it's up to you to see if they're to your liking. I did buy TMB this am and I don't believe the breakout is too far along to get some here. But to be honest, it could easily drift back a little for those who want a lower price.

This is strictly a technical breakout trade that I set an alert for based on the weekly charts.

[Tatnic]

I have anxiously awaited this new thread! Tatnic, put 'em down for us to watch! I really like it when one posts his reasoning about how to pick and enter/exit a trade. Please put up some picks for us! and Thanks!

ok NB and Webs, thanks encouragement, again I just noticed the thread so my apologies for not responding sooner.

TMB was set at 39.5 as an alert (and I based this on the weekly prices and its basing over the past few months...if you check those prices you'll see what I saw). Since its not really the end of the week I'm sticking my neck out here somewhat because it could pull back below its breakout level. But that's one heck of a strong looking chart IMO. Why? Because of how long its based and how tight the weekly bollingers have become.

BUT, there's a slight problem here...the volume is not huge and this could come back to screw things up. So its not an A+ breakout--it still has a day and a half of a shortened week so the volume may be somewhat misleading here and could make up the slack.

Fundamentally, I do recall checking them but this is not a fundamental play....strictly a breakout. I just recall that the fundies did not rule of a position.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TMB&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18092879425

[Tatnic]

Here's one I got back in early December on chance. It wasn't on my alert list but I was thinking about solar stocks and pulled up the chart. It had already started to break out the week before (last week of Nov, '06) so it wasn't too far along. NOtice how the bb's had constricted nicely, and how on the b/o the adx and volume both ramped up? The rsi has started ramping a few weeks before the breakout. The price level that I thought looked critical on the weekly was just over $38, because that was the highest weekly close going back several months. And you can see how the spike in volume coincided with that level being broached.

Also notice how the price retraced after the b/o, but stayed above the 10 week and then shot off again. That's the sign of a really strong breakout. The 30 ema is supposedly the line in the sand but it varies from stock to stock.

This stock is way ahead of itself IMO so it could retrace easily back towards the 10 week.

woops...I forgot to post the chart link:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WFR&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p40641150511

[Tatnic]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QCOM&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p40641150511

ok...this one broke out last week and really accelerated. But after such a huge move, its stalled here.

Even though it was a great b/o, w/ lots of volume, moving abouve resistance, etc...the bollinger bands were not as constricted as I like to see them. So don't be surprised to see this one rest some more and it digests its strong move last week.

[Tatnic]

...just noticed that they're perking up here..broke out of a fairly large triangle but I think they need to clear 490 and stay above it before more individual charts start breaking out. But its time to start building a list...any ideas would be appreciated (I bet peanuts has a few good ones already on his watch list). I bought IMOS a while back and like the looks of it, although I was sweating a little last week when it retraced sharply.

So please share some ideas and lets put 'em on a watch list.

[Tatnic]

Got an alert today but the stock has already expended quite a bit of fuel on its last move up, so there's no volume left. And it doesn't look like it will close over my resistance level of $34 tomorrow. Even if it did, it really doesn't have the volume I'd like to see for a sustained breakout on the weeklies.

[New-born baby]

GREAT POSTS, TATNIC!!!!.

I like your thread. Keep up the great work~

[jiesen]

Yeah, great stuff, Tatnic! It's about time we got back to serious stock talk around here!;)

[mrmarket]

Thanks tatnic....I like it!

[Tatnic]

...as soon as I posted about the sox perking up, Diod popped up on my alerts. I bought a little but I may be guilty of pushing things here. Its a breakout for sure, but if the sox do not clear 490, I'll most likely put a short leash on Diod.

[Tatnic]

Thanks tatnic....I like it!

You're welcome you guys. I'll try to stay current but cannot promise anything but an honest effort. I might post some trades from the past, good and bad to share what I think went wrong or right.

Along that vein, I'm about a whisker away from declaring defeat on my oih puts trade. My magic level will be a close today over $140 will get me out, for a loss. If the stock is over $140 by 3:50pm, I'm out. It will represent a loss of around 0.5% of port. value. But my stop loss for OIH is based on the $140 level and not a set %. (My position size was more closely correlated to portfolio size and max. loss per position). I've been dabbling in trading these oih puts over the past month or so and my record will be a slight gain if I get out this afternoon. To summarize, its not been worth the effort and strain.

But, if OIH does close today above 140, then oil/gas stocks should do well for the next few weeks. I'm guessing I'll start seeing more of them pop up on my alerts.

[stenzrob]

...as soon as I posted about the sox perking up, Diod popped up on my alerts. I bought a little but I may be guilty of pushing things here. Its a breakout for sure, but if the sox do not clear 490, I'll most likely put a short leash on Diod.
Tatnic, I've been following the sox lately also. WFR and DIOD had both shown up on one of my screens a while back and I never bought either one. I bought some AEIS yesterday at $20.30 and MKSI today at $25.06. Also holding some TSRA since 29 Jan, which is only slightly different sector than WFR, AEIS and MKSI.

Do you know where I can find a listing of which stocks actually comprise the SOX?

regards ... stenz

[Tatnic]

Tatnic, I've been following the sox lately also. WFR and DIOD had both shown up on one of my screens a while back and I never bought either one. I bought some AEIS yesterday at $20.30 and MKSI today at $25.06. Also holding some TSRA since 29 Jan, which is only slightly different sector than WFR, AEIS and MKSI.

Do you know where I can find a listing of which stocks actually comprise the SOX?

regards ... stenz

I noticed that AMSC looks very nice here.

To answer your question Rob, here's something from yahoo:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5ESIS

[Tatnic]

I noticed that AMSC looks very nice here.

To answer your question Rob, here's something from yahoo:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5ESIS

Here's another one from yahoo (smh). I haven't found the actual phillie sox index components but you can start to see a pattern

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=SMH

[stenzrob]

Found it.
http://www.streetauthority.com/terms/index/semiconductor.asp

Thanks for those others, that are actually tradeable ETF's.

[Tatnic]

Got an alert today but the stock has already expended quite a bit of fuel on its last move up, so there's no volume left. And it doesn't look like it will close over my resistance level of $34 tomorrow. Even if it did, it really doesn't have the volume I'd like to see for a sustained breakout on the weeklies.

I just noticed that EBAY has formed this pattern (inverse head and shoulders) on the weekly charts. But it has to break above that neckline (around $34) with volume. If it does, the pattern measures around 11 points or a target of $45, give or take.

[spikefader]

I just noticed that EBAY has formed this pattern (inverse head and shoulders) on the weekly charts. But it has to break above that neckline (around $34) with volume. If it does, the pattern measures around 11 points or a target of $45, give or take.
I'm liking EBAY long side these days.

http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/2223/74518789rh1.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/1750/28303359bt8.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/8521/30669529tt9.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/7076/24625018ez9.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/5291/75647421vx0.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/4024/10398781ns3.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Tatnic]

I noticed that AMSC looks very nice here.

To answer your question Rob, here's something from yahoo:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5ESIS

did I mention that AMSC looks good here? I don't own it currently and am trying to not get carried away by this overly optimistic market, but this chart is right where I like to see them. So it may warrant a "just in case" position.

[Tatnic]

...as soon as I posted about the sox perking up, Diod popped up on my alerts. I bought a little but I may be guilty of pushing things here. Its a breakout for sure, but if the sox do not clear 490, I'll most likely put a short leash on Diod.

the sox just could not close last week above that level of 490. Looks like more backfilling is in store.

[Tatnic]

...I'm guessing by the reaction this mornings after their earnings release that their margins were not marvelous. I stated months ago on another thread where this stock was being pumped and pumped some more, that the street would not push the price up until they showed marked improvements in their margins. I haven't listened to the conference call or see their numbers but the tape tells the story.

[Tatnic]

...I'm guessing by the reaction this mornings after their earnings release that their margins were not marvelous. I stated months ago on another thread where this stock was being pumped and pumped some more, that the street would not push the price up until they showed marked improvements in their margins. I haven't listened to the conference call or see their numbers but the tape tells the story.

MY BAD! I thought I had read last week that earnings were to be released b4 the market opened today.....that's incorrect. They're to be released after today's close, so watch the extended hours quotes to see how the numbers were taken. If the stock pops, then the numbers (ie margins) have improved and the stock could break out strongly. If not, then its more of the same.

[peanuts]

MY BAD! I thought I had read last week that earnings were to be released b4 the market opened today.....that's incorrect. They're to be released after today's close, so watch the extended hours quotes to see how the numbers were taken. If the stock pops, then the numbers (ie margins) have improved and the stock could break out strongly. If not, then its more of the same.

What is the best way to play this bit of info? Thanks

[Tatnic]

What is the best way to play this bit of info? Thanks

I'd wait and see how the market reacts. There's a 3rd possibility, that nothing much will happen.

[Tatnic]

This bodes watching, ie the market's reaction.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070226/hong_kong_us_greenspan.html?.v=4

[Tatnic]

did I mention that AMSC looks good here? I don't own it currently and am trying to not get carried away by this overly optimistic market, but this chart is right where I like to see them. So it may warrant a "just in case" position.

any one get any of this? The fundamentals are meaningless...its the chart stupid.;)

[mrmarket]

Tatnic's thread is rapidly becoming the most popular investment column on the internet. Way to go dude.

[peanuts]

Tatnic,

I know you love charts... tell me what you think of this: (company witheld)

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/815/chartug8.png

[IIC]

Tatnic's thread is rapidly becoming the most popular investment column on the internet. Way to go dude.


Heck...Even I like his thread

[IIC]

Tatnic,

I know you love charts... tell me what you think of this: (company witheld)


http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/815/chartug8.png




Let me guess...that looks like WHT

[peanuts]

Let me guess...that looks like WHT

damnit, Doug.... I said "TATNIC" :mad: hehehe

Well.... what do YOU think of the chart?

btw: how'd you know? Did you look up issues advancing greater than 15%, sort the share price, and then scan thru the charts of the resulting stocks?

[IIC]

damnit, Doug.... I said "TATNIC" :mad: hehehe

Well.... what do YOU think of the chart?

btw: how'd you know? Did you look up issues advancing greater than 15%, sort the share price, and then scan thru the charts of the resulting stocks?

My crystal ball knows all.

But I took the long way way out although not as long as your way...One of my Fave scans is MACD 2,13,12 crossovers...I put in a price range based on your chart and only 4 came up.

Interesting chart but I would like to know why it moved?...Unfortunately, this is my busiest week of the year (hopefully) so I don't have time to check it out.

[Tatnic]

Tatnic,

I know you love charts... tell me what you think of this: (company witheld)

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/815/chartug8.png

I like the colors and the way those lines go up and down. Seriously, as a rule, I don't look at daily charts and I don't very often bother with anything under $5 (I did buy some small stuff last week but due to its very speculative nature, I didn't post them). Also, there appears to be quite alot of overhead nearby so....but if it goes up and makes you money then its all good.

I feel more comfortable looking at a bigger picture. If you pull up any of the charts I posted from last week you'll see how I like them parameter-wise: Weeklies, 40/2 bollingers, rsi, adx, 10 sma, 30 ema, and volume over the past 1/2 year. That's just the beginning, but its a start.

[Tatnic]

damnit, Doug.... I said "TATNIC" :mad: hehehe

Well.... what do YOU think of the chart?

btw: how'd you know? Did you look up issues advancing greater than 15%, sort the share price, and then scan thru the charts of the resulting stocks?

OK...so now that I know its WHT, I pulled up a weekly and I don't like it here. To me it looks like it could base for quite a while longer so I'd rather see it build a nice base with decent support and then eventually break strongly out of that base above resistance, with volume. That's not to say that this chart can't pop here but to my eye its got some time left in the basing stage (one could argue that its still in the downtrend phase and you wouldn't get much opposition from me on that claim--its in the gray area right now and to be in a basing stage is an improvement).

Some other things I don't like are the descending ma's...the majority of the time you can't get a strong move in the opposite direction of the slope. Not always, but most of the time.

[Tatnic]

Tatnic's thread is rapidly becoming the most popular investment column on the internet. Way to go dude.

thanks for the accolades MM but me thinks you got a little carried away on that claim.

[Tatnic]

...what happened? Well, for starters one of their top people left the firm. The chart is at very important support and may have already lost its grip. No position here...watching this level for clues.

[Tatnic]

MY BAD! I thought I had read last week that earnings were to be released b4 the market opened today.....that's incorrect. They're to be released after today's close, so watch the extended hours quotes to see how the numbers were taken. If the stock pops, then the numbers (ie margins) have improved and the stock could break out strongly. If not, then its more of the same.

Well, the stock is up pre-market but the company still has not released any numbers other than their "preliminary" sales. No profit info and they now say they can't make the deadline once again. I see there are some brave souls who don't care about the lack of info but I for one wouldn't want to be left holding the bag when the real numbers finally come out.

[Tatnic]

This bodes watching, ie the market's reaction.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070226/hong_kong_us_greenspan.html?.v=4

Boy that old dude still has power over the markets. I don't know if it was his comments alone that started this but it given that his comments were made in hong kong, and the next day their market collapsed is pretty significant and telling.

Anyway, I'm getting very defensive here, writing calls and buying index puts. We're still not that far from all time highs so I could be wrong, but I'm feeling quite defensive now.

[peanuts]

Boy that old dude still has power over the markets. I don't know if it was his comments alone that started this but it given that his comments were made in hong kong, and the next day their market collapsed is pretty significant and telling.

Anyway, I'm getting very defensive here, writing calls and buying index puts. We're still not that far from all time highs so I could be wrong, but I'm feeling quite defensive now.

I wish I had the article to link to, but I read this morning that it was massive Chinese funds which all sold today in order to pay first quarter dividends by the end of March.

Who knows? :confused:

I've moved mostly to CA$H, personally. I was thinking of taking some time off, anyway.

[Tatnic]

I wish I had the article to link to, but I read this morning that it was massive Chinese funds which all sold today in order to pay first quarter dividends by the end of March.

Who knows? :confused:

I've moved mostly to CA$H, personally. I was thinking of taking some time off, anyway.

Probably not the end of the world, but we really got over-extended...nothing wrong with going to cash. I did a quick and dirty check on the qubes...the average "correction" over the past 3 years has been around 11%, and has lasted an average of around 11 weeks. Again, I may be too early with talk of a correction, this market has a mind of its own.

[Lyehopper]

I wish I had the article to link to, but I read this morning that it was massive Chinese funds which all sold today in order to pay first quarter dividends by the end of March.

Who knows? :confused:

I've moved mostly to CA$H, personally. I was thinking of taking some time off, anyway.

Why not short something?

[IIC]

China and Big Mouth Greenspan...I thought he retired???

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/02/27/ap3467501.html

[Lyehopper]

China and Big Mouth Greenspan...I thought he retired???

I was thinkin' the SAME THING!.... Wonder what he shorted last week? :cool:

[Tatnic]

...futures ticking up somewhat. Yesterday's meltdown was blamed not only on greenie, but on a computer glitch that exaccerbated the move. I'm pretty sure we ain't seen the last of selling...I'm thinking those who got caught holding the bag yesterday will be looking for an opportunity to unload during any little rallies that come along.

[Tatnic]

...futures ticking up somewhat. Yesterday's meltdown was blamed not only on greenie, but on a computer glitch that exaccerbated the move. I'm pretty sure we ain't seen the last of selling...I'm thinking those who got caught holding the bag yesterday will be looking for an opportunity to unload during any little rallies that come along.

If you haven't unloaded or found some protective shorts, your time is running out.

[peanuts]

If you haven't unloaded or found some protective shorts, your time is running out.

QID is testing overhead resistance from earlier today, right now... looks like it wants to go higher

[Tatnic]

QID is testing overhead resistance from earlier today, right now... looks like it wants to go higher

Good eye....I agree with you that this is a good one to watch....and a good one to buy for insurance since it pays double the downside. But if you're wrong, then you lose twice as much, kinda like buying puts on the qubes.

My guess is that if we have a true stage 3 downturn, that it won't be a text book decline...expect alot of give and take. For instance, Bernanke was out today trying to calm things down after his predecessor screwed things up yesterday. I'm guessing that the markets will weigh greenie's opinion much heavier than Ben's. Boy isn't this interesting!?

[peanuts]

Good eye....I agree with you that this is a good one to watch....and a good one to buy for insurance since it pays double the downside. But if you're wrong, then you lose twice as much, kinda like buying puts on the qubes.

My guess is that if we have a true stage 3 downturn, that it won't be a text book decline...expect alot of give and take. For instance, Bernanke was out today trying to calm things down after his predecessor screwed things up yesterday. I'm guessing that the markets will weigh greenie's opinion much heavier than Ben's. Boy isn't this interesting!?

Ya, I caught a few minutes of the news from the standard station, and they sure were kissing Ben's butt on TV... I wonder what they were saying off the air, though.

[Tatnic]

If you haven't unloaded or found some protective shorts, your time is running out.

HOly molie...naz futures of 28 pts. so far this am. The whole world is red, except for the iceland exchange and a few others.

[Tatnic]

...is one of the big keys here. 455 was the key level. If it can close above that today then maybe, maybe the market will get out of its funk.

Greenie's attempt at a mea culpe yesterday helped a little but I think the damage was done and is most likely irreparable. Take that Bernanke.

[Tatnic]

...is one of the big keys here. 455 was the key level. If it can close above that today then maybe, maybe the market will get out of its funk.

Greenie's attempt at a mea culpe yesterday helped a little but I think the damage was done and is most likely irreparable. Take that Bernanke.

Here are what I see as important closing levels today on the indices:

naz--2400 (currently at 2399 just before 11 am)

dow--12,200 (currently at 12,237.................)

spx--1400 (currently at 1401........................)

all nice round numbers. We may actually close above one or more of these levels today, but that just seems to be delaying the inevitable..ie these levels will not hold for long.

I can't iimagine that too many will want to hold too much over the weekend, so I expect these levels to all be broken by the close. If all close comfortably above these levels, then maybe the governor (in this case, the FED governor) has issued a reprieve! Seems like wishful thinking to me.

[Tatnic]

....and pick some shorts. No time to be buying stocks. Remember that the AVERAGE downdraft lasts about 3 months, give or take, so that means around Mother's day (which ironically was when last years meltdown was just getting started) start watching for signs of improvement. My own gut tells me that given the incredibly bullish rise we just had, that the fall will be equally impressive so there's absolutely no need to be impatient.

[Tatnic]

I've been playing with some models based on Swenson's book. What I've found is very interesting and has to do with bad timing more than anything. (This model portfolio had 32.5% US Treasuries, longer term, with a mixture of small caps, REITS, foreign equities and some emerging markets...all based on Swenson's mix and methodology of selling winners and buying laggards in the port)

I set up the model going back just over 10 years and 8 months (I would prefer to set it up for a 30 year period but cannot find quotes for that). Since its inception, a buy and hold strategy has produced decent returns vs. the actively managed approach (adjusting the mixture of funds monthly), but still lags the active approach by just over 6/10% point (yearly, compounded return). The actively managed yearly return was around 11.6% to date, buy and hold 11%.

But if you change the model so that it starts right before the Asian meltdown of '98, the actively managed approach yields 3% points higher (again, yearly compounded returns) than the buy and hold strategy.

And if you set the model to start during the '02 recession, on April 30th of 2002, the active approach yields a yearly return of 7.5% points better than the buy and hold (13.2% vs. 5.7%).

The conclusion is that bad timing can be overcome (after about 5 years) if the account is actively managed. The model assumed that tax consequences were not part of the equation...ie in an IRA or similar account. And I further concluded that over the long run, an actively managed account produces slightly better returns than a buy and hold account and more importantly will be more RESILIENT than a buy and hold portfolio.

Previously I had concluded that a buy and hold approach was better than the actively managed approach, but this conclusion was based on bad quotes which skewed the model.

[Tatnic]

Yesterday right before the close I bought some more index puts. Why? Because when you shorting you've got to get prices at or near important price levels. We closed right at important levels (see my post from last week). The other day we got right down to the top of my next important level, but the market had just gotten too oversold already to make any new lows, so it bounced off those levels and is now up to the last breached support, now turned resistance, or so the theory goes. We'll see how the day turns out. If I'm wrong I'd rather be wrong at a point I know is important so I can call Uncle quickly.

[Tatnic]

Dow 12,000 was important support. Naz 2330~2340.

I haven't checked the sp500 but if you got 2 out of 3 breaking support that's significant, and I'd venture a guess that sp500 and others have either broken or will be week's end.


Yesterday right before the close I bought some more index puts. Why? Because when you shorting you've got to get prices at or near important price levels. We closed right at important levels (see my post from last week). The other day we got right down to the top of my next important level, but the market had just gotten too oversold already to make any new lows, so it bounced off those levels and is now up to the last breached support, now turned resistance, or so the theory goes. We'll see how the day turns out. If I'm wrong I'd rather be wrong at a point I know is important so I can call Uncle quickly.

[Tatnic]

I don't believe I've made more than a couple of trades over the past month or so. Bought some oil/gas stocks (fto and tlm). And I haven't been looking at any shorts either which could be a mistake...I think I'll start looking a little about now. But to be honest, unless you are day-trading, its been hard to find decent shorts that will maintain their downdrafts long enough to make any serious money....why bother?

I can find stocks that I'd feel comfortable buying, many that I would not want to own, but I have not found a list that can make me any decent money on a regular basis on the short side. IN the past I thought IIG was such a candidate,but further review has not proven that to be true. Its in too much demand, for whatever reason(s), and so far has just been a sucker short. That could change obviously, but so far the bears have been burned in that one (me included).

The home builders had been good short candidates....I just missed my chance with them and as of right now they look like they want to be bouncing from these levels. Of that bunch, NVR stands head and shoulders above them all...it has really never participated in the downtrend and is as respectable looking as many stocks out there.

Commodity plays have been taking a breather here lately, I hardly think they're done, just resting.

I've started a "new" paper port of 30 stocks (62.5%) and the rest index bond funds (U.S. treasuries). I started it at the beginning of '07 and am interested to see how it compares to the hedge fund universe (which for the year 2006 had returned just under 12%...nothing too exciting, more like mutual fund returns). So far this paper port is up around 10.5% ytd, and I expect it to post in excess of 25% yearly returns. Its a very simple buy and hold port, no trading or rebalancing at all, just buy at the beginning of the year and hold.

If you're interested in some of the other paper ports I've put together over the past few years, I think I posted them here on this site somewhere. One of the best ones performance-wise was a paper port of 10 dividend paying stocks that I found and started right during the meltdown last June. Its currently up just a hair over 32% in less than a year's time. The other dividend port I put together around thanksgiving is up around 15% when I checked the other day.

I'm guessing that the reason these dividend ports are up as much as they are is that people want the security of dividend paying stocks so they flock to them and drive up the prices. The dividends are not that high...I believe the net payout is just over 5~6% but I'm going by memory here.

[billyjoe]

Tatnic,
I'm interested in dividend ports and am buying several these past few months : Here are 4 I like and the yields which are real nice when compounded in an IRA.

RPM---3.22%
MO----4.91
NLY---4.98
CNE--14.95-----they are paying monthly and the shares are multiplying fast

RPM is my only loser at about 7%, but I'm confident in its rebound.

--------------billyjoe

[Tatnic]

Tatnic,
I'm interested in dividend ports and am buying several these past few months : Here are 4 I like and the yields which are real nice when compounded in an IRA.

RPM---3.22%
MO----4.91
NLY---4.98
CNE--14.95-----they are paying monthly and the shares are multiplying fast

RPM is my only loser at about 7%, but I'm confident in its rebound.

--------------billyjoe

I think you need to find a few more to help balance out the laggards. The only one I'd recommend out of that bunch is MO, its been very steady and reliable over time, even with the occasional lawsuit scare. The reason I don't like the others is that I prefer a balance of dividends with capital gains appreciation over time. I see that one of those has cut its dividend on a pretty regular basis, you want to see them increased and the price increasing as well.

[Tatnic]

OK...since we last spoke, about a hour or so ago, I found a list of dividend paying stocks that I think will do ok over the next year. Some of these are under great accumulation and should pull back, but that's why I think its important to have at least 10 stocks so the average return is decent. I'd bet that over the next year this bunch combined will return high 20's~low 30's. By that I mean the dividend and capital appreciation combined. Some may double but there will be laggards too.

FRO
BPT
NAT
PCU
GMR
SFL
AB
SPH
TNH (HOLY COW)
PTNR
ARLP

[Tatnic]

OK...since we last spoke, about a hour or so ago, I found a list of dividend paying stocks that I think will do ok over the next year. Some of these are under great accumulation and should pull back, but that's why I think its important to have at least 10 stocks so the average return is decent. I'd bet that over the next year this bunch combined will return high 20's~low 30's. By that I mean the dividend and capital appreciation combined. Some may double but there will be laggards too.

FRO
BPT
NAT
PCU
GMR
SFL
AB
SPH
TNH (HOLY COW)
PTNR
ARLP

I can already predict which ones will depreciate in value...bpt for one. Of course I can't predict the future but that seems to be the trend with that trust. I had never heard of TNH until I ran that screen this am...man!!

[jiesen]

OK...since we last spoke, about a hour or so ago, I found a list of dividend paying stocks that I think will do ok over the next year. Some of these are under great accumulation and should pull back, but that's why I think its important to have at least 10 stocks so the average return is decent. I'd bet that over the next year this bunch combined will return high 20's~low 30's. By that I mean the dividend and capital appreciation combined. Some may double but there will be laggards too.

FRO
BPT
NAT
PCU
GMR
SFL
AB
SPH
TNH (HOLY COW)
PTNR
ARLP

yeah, I agree that TNH looks good. I like ARLP as well, and still own it from when it was a $$MM winner... High dividend payers rock!

[Tatnic]

yeah, I agree that TNH looks good. I like ARLP as well, and still own it from when it was a $$MM winner... High dividend payers rock!

Considering that over the past two centuries, give or take, over 63% of the gains from equities has come from dividends (from Robert Arnott.."Dividends and the Three Dwarfs"...2003).

[Tatnic]

...here's one with potential, USG.

If we get a bad hurricane season, which I think we will, then this one may bounce 30%~50% from this level ($48). No position...yet. One could start a position here fairly safely with a stop at 45-7/8 and see what happens. Or you could wait until the weekly rsi pops up above 50. Its really, very deeply oversold at this level so I would be inclined to take a chance on the first play, ie buying here with stops just under 46.

[Tatnic]

...here's one with potential, USG.

If we get a bad hurricane season, which I think we will, then this one may bounce 30%~50% from this level ($48). No position...yet. One could start a position here fairly safely with a stop at 45-7/8 and see what happens. Or you could wait until the weekly rsi pops up above 50. Its really, very deeply oversold at this level so I would be inclined to take a chance on the first play, ie buying here with stops just under 46.

Add CAT to that list...I think it could bounce 12%~15$ from here($72).

[billyjoe]

Tat,
Warren Buffet believes in USG. Stocking up at under 50, Berkshire Hathaway owns over 17 million shares as of Dec.31 '06. See Sept. story in Seeking Alpha.

--------billyjoe

[Tatnic]

Tat,
Warren Buffet believes in USG. Stocking up at under 50, Berkshire Hathaway owns over 17 million shares as of Dec.31 '06. See Sept. story in Seeking Alpha.

--------billyjoe

In this case I'm basing my opinion on price action alone, with some fundamental bias, ie the pending hurricane season. Its a mixed feeling having him like the same stock that I do since I don't think he's been all that hot over the past decade...mutual fund peformance basically. My recollection of his stock holdings brings on a big yawn....

[skiracer]

Nice stock and play Tatnic. I like it from here if it lives up to what I think it can and will do if the housing markets turn up. Hope you don't mind but I am going to post it over with my charts at StockCharts. I think this is a good time to be looking at some of the housing related stocks and builders in general. Some decent buys on beaten down companies.

http://img118.imageshack.us/img118/4909/usgtg1.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Tatnic]

[QUOTE=skiracer;80827]Nice stock and play Tatnic. I like it from here if it lives up to what I think it can and will do if the housing markets turn up. Hope you don't mind but I am going to post it over with my charts at StockCharts. I think this is a good time to be looking at some of the housing related stocks and builders in general. Some decent buys on beaten down companies.QUOTE]

Ski, be my guest. I think we'll need to adopt an investor mentality with this one however. Just because there's some decent volume coming in right here doesn't mean it will shoot up to 75 in a few weeks. And even though its basing for several months, like you point out, it could continue that vein. Buffet has often said that you should be prepared to see a new purchase drop 50% and not flinch. I think in this case <46 looks like decent support, but then there's the lower low of <43 to catch it. So maybe a partial position here with some left over for a test, or a break above resistance in the 57 area. That's a more conservative play.

[Tatnic]

...is OC, Owens-Corning. They should also be important in energy conservations, which offer a pretty decent return on investment.

Of course some of the best housing/construction plays have been MLM, VMC, USLM and FRK.

One thing I'm pretty certain about is that we're gonna see more violent weather, droughts/fires, hurricanes, etc., so we should always see demand in these "supplier" type stocks.

[peanuts]

...Of course some of the best housing/construction plays have been MLM, VMC, USLM and FRK.


Glad to see someone else realizing the strength in this sector. I'm 100% with you, Tatnic. Rocks and aggregates cannot be denied their place in history... I love how it has ALWAYS been a key economical element since man became industrious.

FRK is being bought by VMC, so you might want to scratch that off of your list.

Take a look at OGBY.pk They have got some old asbestos issues that should be cleared sometime soon... depends how long the lawyers can drag it out.

[Tatnic]

Glad to see someone else realizing the strength in this sector. I'm 100% with you, Tatnic. Rocks and aggregates cannot be denied their place in history... I love how it has ALWAYS been a key economical element since man became industrious.

FRK is being bought by VMC, so you might want to scratch that off of your list.

Take a look at OGBY.pk They have got some old asbestos issues that should be cleared sometime soon... depends how long the lawyers can drag it out.

I believe vmc bot frk.

Its interesting that these material stocks are also solar plays...maybe not along the lines of WFR but still, someone has to mine the ingredients.

[peanuts]

I believe vmc bot frk.

Its interesting that these material stocks are also solar plays...maybe not along the lines of WFR but still, someone has to mine the ingredients.

VMC is in the process of buying FRK, they haven't 'bot' them, yet.

[Tatnic]

I can already predict which ones will depreciate in value...bpt for one. Of course I can't predict the future but that seems to be the trend with that trust. I had never heard of TNH until I ran that screen this am...man!!

You know, its pretty obvious now that TNH is a short-term short. Its just too overdone at these levels. But if and when it corrects, I'm guessing that it won't last that long.

[Tatnic]

Pnuts mentioned this one a while back...it's putting in a pretty impressive move here and if my calc's are correct it has a ways to go. No position..., was short earlier but got stopped out. Stupid short in hind-sight.

[New-born baby]

Pnuts mentioned this one a while back...it's putting in a pretty impressive move here and if my calc's are correct it has a ways to go. No position..., was short earlier but got stopped out. Stupid short in hind-sight.

MM Forums is on a roll right now! Pete, Peanuts, Tatnic, Ski, and others are throwing the hot picks up on the board, so I thought I ought to throw up a chart for all to see. This CAS pick, well now, seems yesterday we had a nice triple top breakout, with a nice big $10 profit coming. So why not buy it right here at support like a good boy should?

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/9749/chart1xs1.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

You know, its pretty obvious now that TNH is a short-term short. Its just too overdone at these levels. But if and when it corrects, I'm guessing that it won't last that long.


I would not short this bull. It's like the sign on the fence at the bull pasture: "If you want to cross this pasture, you need to be able to run the 100 yard dash in 9.9 seconds. The bull can run it in 10.0." Leave this monster alone for now. It's in a three up, looking for four down and run to five up.

http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/3117/chart1mo6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

MM Forums is on a roll right now! Pete, Peanuts, Tatnic, Ski, and others are throwing the hot picks up on the board, so I thought I ought to throw up a chart for all to see. This CAS pick, well now, seems yesterday we had a nice triple top breakout, with a nice big $10 profit coming. So why not buy it right here at support like a good boy should?

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/9749/chart1xs1.png (http://imageshack.us)

Nice chart NB. From the chart it looks as if it might be starting a handle formation right here. Nice triple bottom cup base though. Almost a classic huh. Looks to be worthwhile to keep an eye on though.

[skiracer]

I would not short this bull. It's like the sign on the fence at the bull pasture: "If you want to cross this pasture, you need to be able to run the 100 yard dash in 9.9 seconds. The bull can run it in 10.0." Leave this monster alone for now. It's in a three up, looking for four down and run to five up.

http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/3117/chart1mo6.png (http://imageshack.us)

I would be looking for a short play here rather than a long position if I were going to trade it right now. Nice charts though. This is the kind of stuff we have to get back to here at Ernies. If everyone starts throwing up charts and ideas the commentary will flow.

[New-born baby]

I would be looking for a short play here rather than a long position if I were going to trade it right now. Nice charts though. This is the kind of stuff we have to get back to here at Ernies. If everyone starts throwing up charts and ideas the commentary will flow.

I agree with the chart comments, Ski. I would not be taking TNH long here either; it is just too strong to short, imho. In other words, I am leaving this one alone at this time. But yes, I love the scans, and I will be glad to throw up a few charts if I can find the time.

[New-born baby]

Here's one to watch, because I think it bull charges through the R.
http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/3365/chart1bh5.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Tatnic]

Here's one to watch, because I think it bull charges through the R.

I like FTO, HOC and VLO, all nice, fundamentally strong refiner plays. I chose FTO only because it recently broke out (32.5+/-), tested that level, and is bouncing here. Again, this is a "hurricane season" play for me.

[Tatnic]

I would not short this bull. It's like the sign on the fence at the bull pasture: "If you want to cross this pasture, you need to be able to run the 100 yard dash in 9.9 seconds. The bull can run it in 10.0." Leave this monster alone for now. It's in a three up, looking for four down and run to five up.

Yes...I agree. Its last "correction" of 33% lasted about 10 seconds.

[New-born baby]

Yes...I agree. Its last "correction" of 33% lasted about 10 seconds.

Don't exaggerate, Tat. I think it was only about 9 seconds. lol

[skiracer]

Here's one to watch, because I think it bull charges through the R.
http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/3365/chart1bh5.png (http://imageshack.us)

I like this chart and the stock. They are a player and if it shakes it out a little bit more it's a nice cup base. Needs a bit more handle and percentage wise it could breakout from above the line. Would be worth watching or buy at the end of the handle if you believe it will breakout. I know they are a player and were a leader when oil was peaking. This seems like a price that isn't going to be getting any cheaper if it does breakout above this line.

[Tatnic]

I like this chart and the stock.

I could have and probably should have just split my refiner position 3 ways and bought equal amounts of vlo, hoc and fto...then that way I take the timing issue out of the equation. All 3 are strong stocks and should do well in the long-run, ie the next 3~5 years I'd say.

[Tatnic]

...but a very interesting concept, ie using solar power to extract water from the atmosphere. (the ob stands for Oh brother).

Have had this one before but got bored with it. The company is selling stock left and right to keep their cash position up there, but the price keeps moving up anyway. I don't know the company well enough to guess whether or not they'll be around in the next 10 years, but the recent price action says something for them, ie fairly steady climb.

Worth a small position, but very speculative.

[Tatnic]

I could have and probably should have just split my refiner position 3 ways and bought equal amounts of vlo, hoc and fto...then that way I take the timing issue out of the equation. All 3 are strong stocks and should do well in the long-run, ie the next 3~5 years I'd say.

what's the matter with me....TSO should be in that august group.

[Tatnic]

...but a very interesting concept, ie using solar power to extract water from the atmosphere. (the ob stands for Oh brother).

Have had this one before but got bored with it. The company is selling stock left and right to keep their cash position up there, but the price keeps moving up anyway. I don't know the company well enough to guess whether or not they'll be around in the next 10 years, but the recent price action says something for them, ie fairly steady climb.

Worth a small position, but very speculative.

ok...I just dug a little deeper and conclude that wwat is not worth the investment to me anyway, at least not on any fundamental basis.

The only viable water-from-air extraction company is Aqua Sciences and they're private. I thought wwat fit this category but I'm not sure they do water from air tricks, I might have mixed them up with another company.

Now if Aqua Sciences goes public, then I'll be interested.

[Tatnic]

Buying some here...I like what they do and how well they've done over the years. Plus the chart is at a point I find attractive.

[Tatnic]

...something must be up, the price is taking off here.

[Tatnic]

...while I firmly believe that allocating corn acerage to ethanol production, while subsidizing that production no less, has got to be one of the dumbest ideas to ever come out of washington, I still think ANDE is a good buy right here while its starting to power up.

Lets see, if my rough calcs are correct, the price of E85 has to be at least 30% cheaper than gasoline to be on parr (because of the lower energy content)...and it really should be 40% cheaper given the damage it can do to engine components. Idiotic...and lets not even get into the economics of growing, harvesting, processing, shipping, distilling, etc of corn to convert it to ethanol, then re-load and re-ship it so it can be distributed to gas stations. And throw in the increased cost of other farm products because of this shift to ethanol production from corn, ie beer, meat, the two staples.

Now if we legalized the growing of industrial-grade hemp, without subsidies, then we could possibly have something viable. We're talking about a weed that can grow almost anywhere without tons of chemicals or labor, and its by-products can be used for dozens of industrial purposes (chemicals, fiber, paper, cloth, oils/resins, etc) including the production of ethanol and other biofuels. And your exhaust would smell great;) But since there's no wealthy companies and lobbyists pushing for this, it will never happen in this country. There are however plenty of drug companies who do not want to see industrial hemp production legalized, but they don't mind the proliferation of meth labs and all the damage and decay they caused.

[peanuts]

Though I agree with your comments regarding the current uneconomical production and distribution of ethanol, I think you need to add another variable to your calculation.

Corn can be grown year after year, and should be considered a renewable energy source.

Once oil is out of the ground, it is not replaced within one year, nor is the exploration and development of new wells on pace to balance the yearly reserve drawdowns over the next decade.

Your current calculations are only considering present value of commodities. I feel that it is important to consider adding a future value element to the equation, but I do not have the information to complete the equation. I do think that the price of oil will escalate beyond what we all think is possible, and at that time ethanol will seem like a no-brainer alternative. There must be a tipping point.

I like your stock pick of The Andersons (ANDE)

[Tatnic]

Though I agree with your comments regarding the current uneconomical production and distribution of ethanol, I think you need to add another variable to your calculation.

Corn can be grown year after year, and should be considered a renewable energy source.

Once oil is out of the ground, it is not replaced within one year, nor is the exploration and development of new wells on pace to balance the yearly reserve drawdowns over the next decade.

Your current calculations are only considering present value of commodities. I feel that it is important to consider adding a future value element to the equation, but I do not have the information to complete the equation. I do think that the price of oil will escalate beyond what we all think is possible, and at that time ethanol will seem like a no-brainer alternative. There must be a tipping point.

I like your stock pick of The Andersons (ANDE)

I believe you brought that to my attention last year...kudos to you.

Last year I got all excited after reading Peak Oil. I used to believe that $100/bbl oil was just around the bend, and even though I think oil prices will always carry a "terrorist" premium, I've given up worryiing about how high prices can go. We also have to add in the cost of mitigating global warming to any analysis, which if Murphy gets his way, will escalate beyond anything imaginable to us here in the year 2007. Good and bad...good for those willing to take a risk and invest in upcoming technology, bad for those who don't.

As for ethanol production, right now its a negative sum game with corn based ethanol. Unless we find a better substrate I don't believe ethanol will become the fuel of choice in the us. And I don't think it should if it means subsidizing corn production above all else. After all, its you and I that pay those subsidies (well, maybe not Lye, he probably gets his share of handouts).

[Tatnic]

Though I agree with your comments regarding the current uneconomical production and distribution of ethanol, I think you need to add another variable to your calculation.

Corn can be grown year after year, and should be considered a renewable energy source.

Once oil is out of the ground, it is not replaced within one year, nor is the exploration and development of new wells on pace to balance the yearly reserve drawdowns over the next decade.

Your current calculations are only considering present value of commodities. I feel that it is important to consider adding a future value element to the equation, but I do not have the information to complete the equation. I do think that the price of oil will escalate beyond what we all think is possible, and at that time ethanol will seem like a no-brainer alternative. There must be a tipping point.

I like your stock pick of The Andersons (ANDE)

Couple of comments. I've read parts of Peak Oil and when I first picked it up I was swayed by his arguement, esp. related to the giant fields in Saudi Arabia, but its also possible that with new (and expensive) technology, we can keep tapping those reserves. I just read an article in the Times not too long ago about a new use of steam to rejuvinate old wells (as being used in the US)...they claimed that many of the old, abandoned wells are perfectly viable now. And with new drilling technology, esp. deep ocean drilling, we can keep finding new reserves. But these new advances are very expensive so I'm guessing they'll insure that oil prices will stay lofty even though they open up new reserves. And we can't even begin to factor in the "terrorist" premium going forward, but I doubt that will ever go to zero. So I acknowledge that oil will never get real cheap but I also don't believe that ethanol will either. We can't expect our nation's working equipment to be powered by ethanol. A huge John Deere harvester won't run on ethanol....maybe biodiesel, but never ethanol. So it takes diesel to run the equipment to plant, harvest and distribute the corn and with the increased cost of energy, the cost of ethanol production will be tightly correlated to that increase. Its an energy intensive production, not efficient.

I have lived on farms and been around farms a good part of my life, and I know that growing corn is very hard on the soil. It cannot be done year after year without huge inputs of fertilizer. Farmers like to rotate their corn fields if possible with legumes one year (to add nitrogen and "green manure" to the fields), assuming they have that luxury of acerage. If not they walk the fertilizer to the fields and keep replanting corn, but after a certain point they have to stop and rejuvenate that field or it just isn't worth the cost of planting it from a yield standpoint. So while your statement about corn being a renewable resource is technically correct, it does not renew itself without huge inputs of resources, and growing corn is energy intensive. Sure you'll read articles about it being a net positive but don't believe them...they're wildly optimistic and biased in my opinion.

Last note....I was in Ohio a few weeks ago and saw that E85 was for sale in an Oberlin gas station, for a few pennies less than regular gas. I didn't see anyone pumping any but its not that simple. First of all your vehicle has to be equipped to do so, and unless you're totally ignorant of how to calculate gas mileage you wouldn't bother buying the stuff until it comes way down in price relative to regular (I'm assuming that 97% of the american public couldn't do the back of the envelope calc on the breakeven price, but that they could figure out their lousy gas mileage if they went through a couple of tanks). I just don't see how that will happen...its already subsidized to the hilt...are we going to subsidize it even more just to keep it on the market?

[Tatnic]

...from my list of Superstocks is BOOM, based on Friday's close.

[Tatnic]

...from my list of Superstocks is BOOM, based on Friday's close.


a few more "buys" from my list (I'm in the process of forward testing this so do your own Due Dilligence):

IIIN PMTI SIM VTR USNA NEU QSII TS SMSI NTRI GOOG DIOD

[Tatnic]

a few more "buys" from my list (I'm in the process of forward testing this so do your own Due Dilligence):

IIIN PMTI SIM VTR USNA NEU QSII TS SMSI NTRI GOOG DIOD

....Add GDP CLHB AKAM (GULP!)

[Tatnic]

....Add GDP CLHB AKAM (GULP!)

one last buy is CIB. That makes 16 buys to start off the month of May. Now here's the sells for May, or end of April to be more clear: FRG IPS SID WFR CLF MLM MTRX PCR PTNR RTI TNH...

My total list contains over 70 stocks, some of which would have been buys just a few weeks ago, so I guess the rest are classified as "holds".

My for-testing from this point on will look at weekly closes and maybe daily if I get ambitious enough. Not sure daily makes any sense really so I'll probably just stay with weekly.

[Tatnic]

one last buy is CIB. That makes 16 buys to start off the month of May. Now here's the sells for May, or end of April to be more clear: FRG IPS SID WFR CLF MLM MTRX PCR PTNR RTI TNH...

My total list contains over 70 stocks, some of which would have been buys just a few weeks ago, so I guess the rest are classified as "holds".

My for-testing from this point on will look at weekly closes and maybe daily if I get ambitious enough. Not sure daily makes any sense really so I'll probably just stay with weekly.

It should also go without saying that this is not a trading list. Out of all of those mentioned there are only a couple that could be "traded"...one is breaking out and one is breaking down.

[peanuts]

It should also go without saying that this is not a trading list. Out of all of those mentioned there are only a couple that could be "traded"...one is breaking out and one is breaking down.

I made some really good day trades in MLM on the long side today. I'm not sure why you had it listed as a sell in late April or May. Can you explain some more please? I really like this sector, and this stock in particular

[Tatnic]

I made some really good day trades in MLM on the long side today. I'm not sure why you had it listed as a sell in late April or May. Can you explain some more please? I really like this sector, and this stock in particular

I believe its getting ahead of itself and would be taking some profits and holding some. I don't own it at the time and I too like the company....I believe it just got ahead of itself.

[Tatnic]

one last buy is CIB. That makes 16 buys to start off the month of May. Now here's the sells for May, or end of April to be more clear: FRG IPS SID WFR CLF MLM MTRX PCR PTNR RTI TNH...

My total list contains over 70 stocks, some of which would have been buys just a few weeks ago, so I guess the rest are classified as "holds".

My for-testing from this point on will look at weekly closes and maybe daily if I get ambitious enough. Not sure daily makes any sense really so I'll probably just stay with weekly.

After further testing and refinement (I did mention that this is in the test phase), I really only have 8 buys for the month of may: CIB, CLHB, FTEK, GDP, IIIN, NTRI, TS, VTR.

The sells are no different.

[Tatnic]

After further testing and refinement (I did mention that this is in the test phase), I really only have 8 buys for the month of may: CIB, CLHB, FTEK, GDP, IIIN, NTRI, TS, VTR.

The sells are no different.

New buy signals for upcoming week: ANDE BOOM DIOD GOOG ICON QSII

stocks extremely overextended are jsda and tnh.

[Tatnic]

...boy oh boy, check out the volume on this one and tell me something's not up.

Ahem....I shouldn't have to tell anyone here with better than a 4th grade reading comprehension that I mean to check the weekly charts.

[Lyehopper]

...boy oh boy, check out the volume on this one and tell me something's not up.

Ahem....I shouldn't have to tell anyone here with better than a 4th grade reading comprehension that I mean to check the weekly charts.

Tatnic, One would think that a highly educated and intellectual Communist such as yourself would have enough freakin' brains to post a simple chart so we could see what you were talking about.

[Tatnic]

Tatnic, One would think that a highly educated and intellectual Communist such as yourself would have enough freakin' brains to post a simple chart so we could see what you were talking about.

You're better off to just enter the symbol in your own chart settings you bed-wetting facist. My settings are of little interest to you or anyone else.

[Tatnic]

...while Lye takes an hour or so to look up the definition of fascist (I probably spelled that wrong Lye, so that's why you can't find it), lets talk about CLHB.

I believe that going forward this year we'll see a bunch more devasting storms which will require huge sums of money to clean up after. Co's like CLHB, AW and some other waste management co's (I believe Lye even posted one months ago, STRL maybe,or ECOL?) should have a very busy year.

Even if you think global warming/climate change is a bunch of huey you can't help but notice the number of devasting tornados that have hit the heartland. And hurricane season hasn't even started in earnest. I keep watching the weather maps and the lower 48 that abuts the gulf is routinely in the red zone temperature-wise. I'm betting that the gulf is the hottest its even been.

[billyjoe]

Here's a nice song you'll both like :http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-lJu5ibAM8&mode=related&search=

-----------billyjoe

[Tatnic]

...this stock so far can't make my list but its in a good place to buy right here. Just don't expect a huge return on your investment. If you get 25%/yr from it be thankful.

[Tatnic]

...this one looks interesting. Some volume coming in and its just a hair above its 40 week. Its also down over 40% over the past year and just might make up some of that lost ground.

[Tatnic]

...just off the 40 week, which in the past has been decent support. Very volatile stock.

[Tatnic]

....that I had been forward testing since may 20th of last year is up over 34% for the year. Not too shabby.

[Tatnic]

...from my list of superstocks, is up over 21% year to date. Favorable winds for sure. The list contains 77 stocks but the port I'm testing only contains 38 (entering them as the "buy" signals hit...)....I haven't gotten too serious about culling but I need to look at that since some are up 80% ytd. I'm just as curious as to how such a port will perform as a buy and mold.

[Tatnic]

This is a long term gainer for me but God don't look at the balance sheet...its hideous.

[Tatnic]

This is a long term gainer for me but God don't look at the balance sheet...its hideous.


Pretty strong comeback after being down hard 2 days. Shouldn't be a surprise given copper's value.

[Tatnic]

a couple of trades entered Friday pm....GOOG and ICON.

GOOG is looking like it wants to make an all-time high soon, perhaps an earnings run as well.

ICON has a similar chart. Both of these were chart trades.

[Tatnic]

...this stock so far can't make my list but its in a good place to buy right here. Just don't expect a huge return on your investment. If you get 25%/yr from it be thankful.


Bingo...I like its movement so far, nice and steady (that post alert was when the stock price was hovering right around $34, right near its 40 week ma).

Lets face it, with gas prices as high as they are HMC will do just fine. They also have a fuel cell car under production and it will hit the streets next year I believe. They're also a big producer of solar power products and motor scooters and cycles. They're way in front of the pack at this point in time with high energy costs.

[riverbabe]

HOKU gapping down pre-market -5.2% just as you predicted, Tatnic.

FTEK just downgraded by Roth Capital, from BUY to HOLD.

[Tatnic]

HOKU gapping down pre-market -5.2% just as you predicted, Tatnic.

FTEK just downgraded by Roth Capital, from BUY to HOLD.

what goes up, must come down, eh? Here's a chart I like:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GROW&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p50336847936

[Tatnic]

...and another (to play this you'd short TLT):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p50336847936

[Tatnic]

HOKU gapping down pre-market -5.2% just as you predicted, Tatnic.

FTEK just downgraded by Roth Capital, from BUY to HOLD.

if anything, this just shows how clueless roth capital is....just a bunch of suits sitting around in an air conditioned office, oblivious of the world around them. China has, hands down, the most polluted air in the world. FTEK has just got a foot hold in there...I think they'll make a ton of money in China.

[riverbabe]

what goes up, must come down, eh? Here's a chart I like:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GROW&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p50336847936

I have been in and out of GROW several times. It's a financial but I like it! Thanks for reminding me. Chart looks very very good right now. Think I'll make a small wager today. River

Have bids in for GROW and CCC today. Hope they fill.

Yea! Just snagged both of em. Riv

[riverbabe]

...and another (to play this you'd short TLT):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p50336847936

Okay, I sees. Think I might have to study it til I understand how the index relates to the TLT. River

[Tatnic]

Okay, I sees. Think I might have to study it til I understand how the index relates to the TLT. River

its pretty close to the inverse since its the price of longer term bonds (20 years granted is not 10, but its closer than the 30 yr. price....price and yield are inversely related. Maybe not a mirror image but pretty close).

The yields actually dropped on friday...so Monday could be another wild day. But the trend does appear to be established at this stage on the yield chart.

[Tatnic]

I have been in and out of GROW several times. It's a financial but I like it! Thanks for reminding me. Chart looks very very good right now. Think I'll make a small wager today. River

Have bids in for GROW and CCC today. Hope they fill.

Yea! Just snagged both of em. Riv

GROW got taken down with the ship but its still right there around support (I would have liked to see it close above $25).

CCC could/can be volatile. I believe that when you buy it up here, away from the last breakout level you can almost expect a retracement back down towards it, ie it could safely retrace back under $9 and still be safely within its stage 2 move. So either set your stops wicked tight or wide and loose....depends on your position size really.

[Tatnic]

..sorry I didn't mention this one sooner but its strength is quite impressive lately, even in the face of a market swoon this week. Looking at the chart it looks to me like its cleared several different, important resistances levels and could keep on moving higher to eventually test all-tiime highs...but then again, I could just be wildly optimistic.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TASR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p50336847936

[Tatnic]

..looks to be breaking above resistance on the weekly.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UDRL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p50336847936

[skiracer]

..sorry I didn't mention this one sooner but its strength is quite impressive lately, even in the face of a market swoon this week. Looking at the chart it looks to me like its cleared several different, important resistances levels and could keep on moving higher to eventually test all-tiime highs...but then again, I could just be wildly optimistic.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TASR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p50336847936

I mentioned TASR back when the pick of the year contest was just beginning for this year. I liked it then and still like it now. It was in the low 8 range when I first mentioned it and entered it in the POTY contest. I bought a considerable amount then for a long term hold over the course of the year. Up over 4 points to date. Still think it will go to over 30 by the end of the year which would still make it a decent buy at these levels.

[Tatnic]

I mentioned TASR back when the pick of the year contest was just beginning for this year. I liked it then and still like it now. It was in the low 8 range when I first mentioned it and entered it in the POTY contest. I bought a considerable amount then for a long term hold over the course of the year. Up over 4 points to date. Still think it will go to over 30 by the end of the year which would still make it a decent buy at these levels.

I' ve probably said this a couple of times already, but I hardly look at anyone else's picks, well at least not from the standpoint of something to buy/short. I've learned (am still learning and adjusting) to develope my own system and if someone (who I respect) finds similar stocks that I like then it just reinforces my convictions.

I have noticed however that Peanuts tends to find stocks/companies that I like, usually before I finally spot them breaking out or whatever. But to single him out doesn't do justice to the many others here that are pretty decent at what they do (you included)...its just that he and I seem to like similar companies and charts, at least enough that I've noticed the similarities even if I don't mention them all.

[Tatnic]

...with a decent looking chart.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CFW&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p37044653561

[Tatnic]

...a very speculative small fry, moving up strongly here. They make lithium ion batteries for automobile applications. Don't know if they're considered a "player" in the industry, I don't think they're up there with the japanese battery makers. But a chart's a chart.

[riverbabe]

...a very speculative small fry, moving up strongly here. They make lithium ion batteries for automobile applications. Don't know if they're considered a "player" in the industry, I don't think they're up there with the japanese battery makers. But a chart's a chart.

In Feb. 2005 I bot ALTI at 4.58. In May 2005 I sold ALTI at 2.80. (sigh)

[mrmarket]

...a very speculative small fry, moving up strongly here. They make lithium ion batteries for automobile applications. Don't know if they're considered a "player" in the industry, I don't think they're up there with the japanese battery makers. But a chart's a chart.

Too speculative for my blood...but good luck!

[Tatnic]

Too speculative for my blood...but good luck!

the only fundamental reason to own this is if you think they have a good chance at making their battery work. Other than that its strictly a speculative chart play. I've got a small position that I would hope over time grows faster than the rate at which they sell stock or burn cash.

[Tatnic]

..another small fry with real numbers and a chart that's looking up. Not nearly as speculative as ALTI but just as volatile.

[Tatnic]

..another small fry with real numbers and a chart that's looking up. Not nearly as speculative as ALTI but just as volatile.

here's a daily chart...yeah, a daily. It needs to close up a dime or so today in order to kick it into a higher level.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=APT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p39235090769

[Tatnic]

...is this finally the long-awaited bounce? Its got some serious resistance to fight through, but its looking like the start of a good bounce.

[peanuts]

here's a daily chart...yeah, a daily...

welcome to the dark side of the force.

http://www.geocities.com/mi_zhe_fu/esb_vader42.jpg

[Tatnic]

welcome to the dark side of the force.

http://www.geocities.com/mi_zhe_fu/esb_vader42.jpg

geezzzz...pretty soon I'll be playing that damn weekly contest;)