LENS - A Stenz Pick

[stenzrob]

The suspense is killing me.

I posted some expectations for the upcoming LENS report on the Yahoo LENS board.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077560&tid=lens&sid=707 7560&mid=9260

I'm noticing today that the chart is also setting up very similar to how it did for the last report. Look at this 6 month chart.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=lens,uu[h,a]daolyiay[dc][pc50!d20,2!f][vc60]&pref=G

The previous earnings report was August 14th before the open - the stock closed up the day before, actually just barely setting a new high. The report was very good, and the stock opened with a gap up and ran about 33% in under three weeks.

Today, the day before a report is due in the morning, the stock closed near the high of the day, and just barely set a new closing high at $13.95. [i]If the same thing were to happen again after the report, this position could become very profitable, very quickly.

I'm curious if anyone has joined me on this one since I posted about it.

[carribean_mike]

I'm in - Let's hope for a good report in the morning. Picked up a few shares of SCKT also.

[rreferee]

Stenz,
I bought LENS at $12.76-that's a 9% gain already.


You are also HUGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!
Great pick!

[mcole74]

Hey, Stenz.

I joined you on this one. Got in at $11.69.
Thanks for the tip!

Wanted to get some SCKT... negative earnings scare me though... no problem with this in your scheme?

[stenzrob]

OOOOPS!

[stenzrob]

I will be holding LENS, they did nothing to disappoint, in my opinion. Revenues were up 90% over the year ago quarter, in the middle of their guidance. EPS also met their guidance.

Analysts may have expected more for guidance forward, but here, too, LENS has given guidance for the next quarter that will be record revenue.

Unlike some others that I have dumped for a loss or stayed out of when their revenue growth fell off (like GORX or CRIO), I will hold this one. My plan is to wait until the initial knee-jerk reaction is done, then look for a good point to add to my position.

[drchrislee]

Yea, it looks like a good time to buy in or more....unfortunately my money & portfolio is all tied up.

[Mi6op]

Sten, where can I read your synopsis on Lens and why you like it so much. With it being this low I may take a position tomorrow.

[stenzrob]

Sten, where can I read your synopsis on Lens and why you like it so much. With it being this low I may take a position tomorrow.
I don't write a $$$MM$$$ style synopsis. I like it for the same reason that I like any of my picks - very strong revenue growth. Until yesterday, it also had good price momentum.

[Mi6op]

Well I'm in at 10.08 hopfully you can atlest break even and I can take a little chunk of change and start building my war chest.

[stenzrob]

9:30AM Roth reits Buy on Concord Camera (LENS) 10.81 +0.15: Roth Capital reiterates their Buy rating and $14 target, saying the co's recently-filed 10-Q provides greater clarity regarding its change in accounting method for inventory; firm does not anticipate that this adjustment will have a meaningful impact on future gross margins, and as such they expect investor confusion over this issue will diminish in the near future, which could buoy the stock.

I was never confused. Nor were any of you, apparently.
I still plan to do better than breakeven, which would put some of you WAY into the black on this one.

[stenzrob]

from briefing.com InPlay this morning -
9:58AM Omnivision results bode well for Concord Camera - Roth Capital (LENS) 10.55 +0.04: Roth Capital reiterates their Buy rating and $14 target on LENS after a major supplier of CMOS image sensors to LENS, OmniVision, reported Q2 results substantially above Street ests; firm believes that OmniVision's stellar results are a leading indicator of LENS's digital camera ramp for the holiday season; also, OmniVision indicated that its new 3-megapixel CMOS image sensor is already shipping in volume, which could allay recent investor concern about LENS's 3MP product slate.

I'm still holding my position.

[Mi6op]

It seems that Lens is testing its "new" support level of around 10.90 or so. I think the holidays is going to be a wonderful time for the lens folk.

I see they came out w/ a new Polariod camera as well. Its called the Polaroid V35 retails for $20 and is targeted at generation y (i guess that's me i'm 22 and like cheap yet quality stuff). It has a wide range of abbilites for the $20 price tag and should move well this christmas.

[stocks54]

Strenz,

Which stock do you suggest the most. LENS or QVDX? The reason I am asking is I know you mentioned that QVDX has great potential. I am not how the equation changes with the possible QVDX/RWAV merger?

Thanks for sharing your insights.

Regards.

[stenzrob]

Strenz,

Which stock do you suggest the most. LENS or QVDX? The reason I am asking is I know you mentioned that QVDX has great potential. I am not how the equation changes with the possible QVDX/RWAV merger?

Thanks for sharing your insights.

Regards.
I like QVDX better; gross margins are higher, so if revenue continues to grow, earnings will grow much faster. I'm also not sure how the equation changes with the RWAV merger. I also still like LENS, and Roth Capital is pumping it again. Great example of how having even a slightly diversified portfolio means I don't really have to decide which one I like better.

6:51AM Concord Camera could be poised for more upside -- B-Week (LENS) 10.30: BusinessWeek highlights LENS due to its digital cameras being at least 50% cheaper than competitors', even though Concord is upping its average price for new high-resolution models from $70 to $100. Michael Kim of Roth Capital Partners says the co's ability to produce at far lower costs (mostly in China) lets it undercut rivals while maintaining profit margins. Mr. Kim expects fiscal 2004 earnings of $0.43 cents a share, on sales of $248.6 million, vs. 2003's 18 cents on $189.8 million. Gary Steiner of Awad & Associates expects the stock, to hit 15 in a year.

[stenzrob]

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_48/b3860118_mz027.htm

[stenzrob]

Roth Capital still pumping LENS - InPlay note this morning:

9:30AM Roth reits Buy on Concord Camera (LENS) 11.40 +0.04: Roth Capital reiterates their Buy rating and $14 target, saying their channel checks reveal that LENS's digital cameras have penetrated into Best Buy for the first time, greatly expanding the co's footprint in the consumer electronics channel; firm also believes that the addition of Best Buy could accelerate LENS's expansion into the consumer electronics channel, particularly given Best Buy's high profile position in the sector.

This stock will pay off for me, just behind schedule.

[mrmarket]

Roth Capital still pumping LENS - InPlay note this morning:

9:30AM Roth reits Buy on Concord Camera (LENS) 11.40 +0.04: Roth Capital reiterates their Buy rating and $14 target, saying their channel checks reveal that LENS's digital cameras have penetrated into Best Buy for the first time, greatly expanding the co's footprint in the consumer electronics channel; firm also believes that the addition of Best Buy could accelerate LENS's expansion into the consumer electronics channel, particularly given Best Buy's high profile position in the sector.

This stock will pay off for me, just behind schedule.



It looks good to me too, although I'm getting mighty thirsty...lol.

[stenzrob]

It looks good to me too, although I'm getting mighty thirsty...lol.LOL is right! How about Saturday 12/6, about 8pm?

[mrmarket]

It looks good to me too, although I'm getting mighty thirsty...lol.LOL is right! How about Saturday 12/6, about 8pm?

I'm sure I have some wrestling match, basketball game or some sort of thing I need to be at. Maybe in 10 years I can actually take you up on it....but seriously, if you're in the neighborhood, give me a jingle.

[Mi6op]

More good news that Concord picked up Best Buy as a distributor.

I read a good post on yahoo's message board for lens where a guy noted that the big wigs at LENS probably downplayed their projections so that the weak at heart would dump their stock, letting them buy in at $10-$11 so they could make an easy profit when it soars on the good news they probably expected in Q4 and beyond.

[Mi6op]

What camera brands does Concord make? Does it just use its own name? I saw they licensed Polaroid sometimes, but what else.

[stocks54]

I though with the increase is sale for LENS as indicated in the message board it should be climbing up.. but after hour indicates it at 11.23? Am I missing something???

[Mi6op]

I think it is profit taking from this recent run up from $10 in early November. From what I hear and see this might be a good time for people who think they missed the boat to jump in and accumulate more.

[Michaelk005]

Bought Lens at 11.70 today, good buy time with its latest dip, think it will hit 15 - $16 by end of month.

[Michaelk005]

Any thoughts on the low volume the last couple of days. seems to be hovering around 11.30$?

[stenzrob]

Nope. No comments on that. It usually takes several months for a stock to recover from the kind of hit it took after the last report, whether it was due to a misunderstading or not. I'm willing to be patient with it.

[Mi6op]

Just Read this on LENS's Yahoo Message Board:

"Bloomberg just reported an internal memo from Concord (LENS) that talks about how Dell Computer and Concord Camera/LENS are about to announce a New Years sales promotion to run from Jan. 5th to Jan. 23rd in which Dell will be purchasing 12,000 of Concord's Eye-Q 334OZ 3.1 megapixel camera as a bundle promo to computer purchases from Dell made during that period. It talks about a purchase order from Dell to Concord in the range of $1.4 million for the bulk of the cameras to purchaed up front with no risk to Concord of any being returned to Concord for credit due to any unsold. "


Don't know if this is true or not but it's good to know, I'm mulling buying more shares. I'm in at 10.08 but am unsure.

[stenzrob]

Since LENS had projected sales for the quarter of $70 to $75 million, it's hard for me to get excited about a DELL deal for $1.2 million that's probably at a lower margin to LENS than normal. Still interesting, good PR and all, but financially, machst nicht.

[Mi6op]

I don't know how many of you have seen what Concord makes and what the cameras look like. But yahoo has a nice shopping section w/ pictures and details. I searched for all Concord Models and here they are:

http://advanced.search.shopping.yahoo.com/shop/cdigicamera/__yltc=s:41258662,d:41258662,sec:finder,slk:search ?y=m&manufacturer=Concord+Camera&megapixels_from=& megapixels_to=&opticalzoom_from=&opticalzoom_to=&r ecordingmethod=&installedmemory_from=&installedmem ory_to=&minprice_from=&minprice_to=&keyword=

[MEA_1956]

I don't know how many of you have seen what Concord makes and what the cameras look like. But yahoo has a nice shopping section w/ pictures and details. I searched for all Concord Models and here they are:

http://advanced.search.shopping.yahoo.com/shop/cdigicamera/__yltc=s:41258662,d:41258662,sec:finder,slk:search ?y=m&manufacturer=Concord+Camera&megapixels_from=& megapixels_to=&opticalzoom_from=&opticalzoom_to=&r ecordingmethod=&installedmemory_from=&installedmem ory_to=&minprice_from=&minprice_to=&keyword=
Thanks Man Just found the perfect present for our youngest. A Concord Eye Q will do just fine for the little one, Plus it has a Retro look. ===> MEA

[Mi6op]

Happy to help you w/ your shopping. Especially if it's buying Concord Cameras!

[stocks54]

I am holding LENS and not sure what to do? I am new investor and pretty much follow Strenz's posting. I know he sold his position. Do we expect any movement in price???

[stenzrob]

I am holding LENS and not sure what to do? I am new investor and pretty much follow Strenz's posting. I know he sold his position. Do we expect any movement in price???Always expect movement, it's only a matter of which direction! What do you think, stocks54? It doesn't matter if you're a new investor, you're still entitled to an opinion.

I got mixed signals on several fronts from LENS, which is why I bailed. There was a change in accounting method, which messed up their last statement. There was a large expense for stock options, but the reason the options expense was so high was because the stock was up significantly for the year. Revenue is way up, but it didn't translate well to the bottom line. So valuation-wise, the price/sales ratio is low given the revenue growth, but the P/E is very high given the lackluster net earnings. The forward PE is reasonable, but that's based on estimated EPS.

Looking at a 3 year weekly chart,
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=lens,uu[h,a]waolyiay[df][pa9.2!c50!f][vc60]&pref=G
it's right at the point where it broke through to a new multi-year high back in August. Normally, this level might be expected to provide some support, but the selling has been pretty consistent, with high volume, since it peaked at $14 just before that confusing and disappointing report.

This all adds up to it being really easy to be confused and uncertain. There are two times when I will sell - one if I'm sure I should sell, and the other is when I'm not sure if I should sell or not.

You know what finally put me over the edge on this one? The Chairman/Pres/CEO makes 3.28M in salary, plus gets a bunch of options. The top five execs make about $6M, equal to the net profit last year for the corporation. That's too much. Plus, institutional ownership is around 65%. I've done best with stocks I've bought when this is much lower. I would rather be in it [i]before the institutions start buying, not before they start selling.

[stocks54]

Strenz,

Thanks for explaning it. I guess I got my emotions involved with stock. Example when you buy stock you think it will apppreciate by certain %. when it does not due to any reason you keep holding it HOPPING it will go up. BUT as you explanied if uncertain it's time to make hard decision. I definately was little concerned about CEO salary...

As always thanks for your help.

Regards,