Wynn

[lemonjello]

Anybody have an opinion on WYNN here?

Even though it just blasted up I'm thinking higher.

[Runner]

Anybody have an opinion on WYNN here?

Even though it just blasted up I'm thinking higher.

WYNN has really melted up here and looks very bullish. I don’t buy breakouts but I come up a price target of around 104 longer term. Nice eye as I might see how it acts during a pullback.

[Runner]

This is were it first caught my eye but hindsight is 20/20... http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=46780&postcount=275

[alice4321us]

They issued $6 dividend for sharholders on record as of 23 Nov payable on Dec 4. Now does that mean if I buy shares of wynn on 22 Nov and hold it for a couple days and sell. I would get 6/share regardless??

[skiracer]

They issued $6 dividend for sharholders on record as of 23 Nov payable on Dec 4. Now does that mean if I buy shares of wynn on 22 Nov and hold it for a couple days and sell. I would get 6/share regardless??

I think that 6 divy will bring alot of people like yourself out of the woodwork to buy just for the 6 between now and Nov. 23. That alone will be pushing the price up somewhat but watchout on Nov. 24 after everyone of record has their check because they usually fall afterwards and you might end up paying more initially during the period in front of the divy and getting less for the stock after the divy. It looks attractive at first glance but be careful. I would wait until as close to the date as possible if I were going to make the play. I think you can go right up to the wire.

[New-born baby]

Anybody have an opinion on WYNN here?

Even though it just blasted up I'm thinking higher.

Nice pop, but I would not buy WYNN at this price. One reason is the "Long Tail Up" on the PnF. It is a warning that the stock is setting up for a short.

WYNN has a very bullish chart, but the danger suggests an option play is much safer. And Alice, once that $6 divy is paid, the stock price will adjust South at least $6, and probably $10+.

[alice4321us]

I will wait till 22nd to buy and will seel first thing on 24th.

[skiracer]

I will wait till 22nd to buy and will seel first thing on 24th.

I would be real careful here with this one. I think it is setting up for a decent short play very soon. I would be watching it for a short side play rather than anything long right here.

[JohnHenry]

From my reading and what I was asking when ALJ was paying an ex-dividend back in August.

For Wynn, you have to purchased the stock by November 21 (Tuesday) and hold it through December 4th to get the $6 dividend per share. So on the day of the paid dividend, what ever the closing price was for December 1 will be offset by minus $6 for December 4 (Monday) opening price.

I think most people will drive the prices up for the new comers and they will exit without taking the dividend. But I could be wrong….anyone?

http://smartdividend.com/?p=206

[alice4321us]

From my reading and what I was asking when ALJ was paying an ex-dividend back in August.

For Wynn, you have to purchased the stock by November 21 (Tuesday) and hold it through December 4th to get the $6 dividend per share. So on the day of the paid dividend, what ever the closing price was for December 1 will be offset by minus $6 for December 4 (Monday) opening price.

I think most people will drive the prices up for the new comers and they will exit without taking the dividend. But I could be wrong….anyone?

http://smartdividend.com/?p=206



I am not sure if that is true, I have held stocks for a day or two to get the dividend and then gotten out. I think you Hold WYNN on Nov 23 and get the divy.

[rrrhumba]

I agree with NBB and StkyTreat on this one. I think you would be setting yourself up for an assured loss as the price will be adjusted and the "agile" bail out pre-divy. This isn't just a nice pop in the price. It's a very out of the ordinary move. What ever the price was before the divy announcement, that's where it will be before the average investor can get his money out.
Playing the short sounds like a good idea.
rrrhumba

[New-born baby]

QUOTE=rrrhumba;71871]I agree with NBB and StkyTreat on this one. I think you would be setting yourself up for an assured loss as the price will be adjusted and the "agile" bail out pre-divy. This isn't just a nice pop in the price. It's a very out of the ordinary move. What ever the price was before the divy announcement, that's where it will be before the average investor can get his money out.
Playing the short sounds like a good idea.
rrrhumba[/QUOTE]


And the short would be to SELL the DEC out of the money calls. Right now, the DEC $90 call is selling for only $.90 more than the stock price, while the put is outlandish! The $90 PUT is a whopping $5.40. That means that if you bought the stock here at $93.50, and then paid $5.40 for a $90 put, you'd be in the hole $7.80 per share just to get $90 back when the ex-divy comes.

The best play is to sell the out of the money calls for NOV or DEC or JAN and let WYNN eat dirt.

[lemonjello]

Bailed on WYNN a few hours ago after a nice ride.

It's still got crazy potential minting money in its Macau operations. I'll wait for now.

[New-born baby]

Bailed on WYNN a few hours ago after a nice ride.

It's still got crazy potential minting money in its Macau operations. I'll wait for now.

Do you realize that WYNN has the cheapest options of all the stocks in the option universe? Interpretation: nobody believes this one is going much higher.

[lemonjello]

Are you saying WYNN is going up or down?

What's valuation are you talking about? Do you trade that theory? Does it make money?



Do you realize that WYNN has the cheapest options of all the stocks in the option universe? Interpretation: nobody believes this one is going much higher.

[New-born baby]

Are you saying WYNN is going up or down?

What's valuation are you talking about? Do you trade that theory? Does it make money?

Lemon,
One way to scan for stocks moving up is looking for the cheapest puts around. When I say "cheapest," I mean lowest cost per dollar value. The vice versa works, too. Here we have a high dollar stock, WYNN, at $93+, and the option for $90 DEC call (more than one month away) sports a tiny time value of $.90. It is the cheapest time value you can buy in the entire market at this time: no exceptions. So it signals that nobody believes WYNN is going to be worth $90 on the third Friday in DEC.

Does the system work? Why of course! People make money selling this info to suckers, er, customers. Ever heard of Dr. J? Of "Stockoptions.com?" How about the world famous "heat seeker" options plays? No? Then click HERE :D (https://iplacereports.com/index.asp?sid=6YX351)

[lemonjello]

Najarian? 'nuf said.

Just looked at the option chain :eek: the puts are fat and the calls are thin. LOL. That just tells me you should be selling the puts and buying the calls and that most of the people are usually wrong. :cramersmiley:

If you've got cash laying around you could short 1000 shares and sell Dec 90 puts against it / buy the Dec 90 calls and come out about 3k ahead in 30 days on about 50k margin or about 6% return on one month on virtually no risk assuming there would be no net effect from the dividend adjustment (not sure if that's true since the div adj on options for big div has special rules.)

Thoughts?

Lemon,
One way to scan for stocks moving up is looking for the cheapest puts around. When I say "cheapest," I mean lowest cost per dollar value. The vice versa works, too. Here we have a high dollar stock, WYNN, at $93+, and the option for $90 DEC call (more than one month away) sports a tiny time value of $.90. It is the cheapest time value you can buy in the entire market at this time: no exceptions. So it signals that nobody believes WYNN is going to be worth $90 on the third Friday in DEC.

Does the system work? Why of course! People make money selling this info to suckers, er, customers. Ever heard of Dr. J? Of "Stockoptions.com?" How about the world famous "heat seeker" options plays? No? Then click HERE :D (https://iplacereports.com/index.asp?sid=6YX351)

[DSteckler]

Short sellers of stock owe the dividend, if short on the record date.

[lemonjello]

Wouldn't everything be adjusted down for the divy? If you have to pay the divy and the stock moves down and the option strikes are all adjusted down $6 by the exchange you would be in the same position as before except you would be up 6k on the short which you would eventually have to kick out. The original 3k lock would still be in tact.

Short sellers of stock owe the dividend, if short on the record date.

[DSteckler]

Strike prices are not adjusted for an ordinary dividend.

[lemonjello]

Is $6 an ordinary divy? I've seen the option rules at one point on this, I'm guessing they will be adjusted by exchange. I'm sure a call to a reputable option broker would give you the answer post haste.

Strike prices are not adjusted for an ordinary dividend.

[New-born baby]

Strike prices are not adjusted for an ordinary dividend.

Dave is correct.

I've seen dogs like WYNN and FRO. Big divys. Big hits once the divy payout hits the market. Shorting the stock is risky. PUTS are too expensive. WYNN will fall much more than the $6. In fact I assume the last couple of days before the ex-date will be down days. Lots of folks are jumping on board now simply for a quick ride up, but they'll leave the train before the ex-date. A naked call sold the day before the ex-date is the safest play. And it'll have to be out of the money or else they will call you on it as soon as it becomes breakeven for them.

[lemonjello]

Are you and Dave POSITIVE that it's an ordinary dividend that won't be adjusted in the strikes?

Not that I'd say anything, but I've already noted that Dave shouldn't be messing with options in Doc's thread. Math problems.

:cramersmiley:

Dave is correct.

I've seen dogs like WYNN and FRO. Big divys. Big hits once the divy payout hits the market. Shorting the stock is risky. PUTS are too expensive. WYNN will fall much more than the $6. In fact I assume the last couple of days before the ex-date will be down days. Lots of folks are jumping on board now simply for a quick ride up, but they'll leave the train before the ex-date. A naked call sold the day before the ex-date is the safest play. And it'll have to be out of the money or else they will call you on it as soon as it becomes breakeven for them.

[New-born baby]

Are you and Dave POSITIVE that it's an ordinary dividend that won't be adjusted in the strikes?

Not that I'd say anything, but I've already noted that Dave shouldn't be messing with options in Doc's thread. Math problems.

:cramersmiley:

Dave's a good man. And I agree with him that the strikes do not get adjusted down. They don't do that for XOM; they won't do it for WYNN.

I think WYNN returns to $77.50 minus! after the divy within 90 days.

http://img133.imageshack.us/img133/926/chart1nx2.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Okay Lemon. You want it bad? You'll get it bad. You want it real bad? You'll get it real bad :D

Here's a play for you:
Buy WYNN. ANY price will do. Doesn't matter.

SELL the JAN 07 $75 call for (currently) $17.50. You get the divy; you get your money back in JAN. IF WYNN looks to fall further, adjust the strike lower. This is how I would play it.

EDIT: here's your solution. Buy the stock and sell the JAN 07 $85 call. You can do this and earn a time premium of $.20 per share. Now that protects you down to $85, and if you sell TWO calls per share, you'll come out smelling like a rose.

[lemonjello]

Since you and Dave are nice guys and are 100% positive that there is no strike adjustment, I'm sure you all wouldn't mind placing a small bet.

How about a $1000 donation from you to the Salvation Army in my name if I win and I'll do the same for you if you win.



Dave's a good man. And I agree with him that the strikes do not get adjusted down. They don't do that for XOM; they won't do it for WYNN.

[lemonjello]

BTW, this bet is also open to Dave or any other senior member of the MM site.

:cramersmiley:

Since you and Dave are nice guys and are 100% positive that there is no strike adjustment, I'm sure you all wouldn't mind placing a small bet.

How about a $1000 donation from you to the Salvation Army in my name if I win and I'll do the same for you if you win.

[New-born baby]

Since you and Dave are nice guys and are 100% positive that there is no strike adjustment, I'm sure you all wouldn't mind placing a small bet.

How about a $1000 donation from you to the Salvation Army in my name if I win and I'll do the same for you if you win.

Thanks, but no thanks. I don't bet. :D

Hey, did you check out those $85 calls?

[lemonjello]

Don't think of it as a "bet", think of it as a charitable wager or a defense of your option expertise - they don't make these wagers in LV. :cramersmiley:

Any other takers? Dave? Defend your option expertise!


Thanks, but no thanks. I don't bet. :D

Hey, did you check out those $85 calls?

[DSteckler]

Since you and Dave are nice guys and are 100% positive that there is no strike adjustment.

I never said that. I said an ordinary dividend payout does not affect the strike price.

The SSF for WYNN is being reduced by $6 but the stock options are not. OPRA has a 10% threshold requirement before making a change and since $6 is less than 10% of the stock price, there will be no reduction or adjustment in the strike prices.

[lemonjello]

Why did you even mention an "ordinary dividend" for the $6 WYNN divy. Obviously you thought it was.

So you are saying this is not an "ordinary divy" but is still not being adjusted.

Is that the case?

I never said that. I said an ordinary dividend payout does not affect the strike price.

The SSF for WYNN is being reduced by $6 but the stock options are not. OPRA has a 10% threshold requirement before making a change and since $6 is less than 10% of the stock price, there will be no reduction or adjustment in the strike prices.

[lemonjello]

Ok. Time is up, the betting window is closed.

BTW, I've already made a nice donation to the Salvation Army. I highly recommend it. :cramersmiley:

[DSteckler]

Why did you even mention an "ordinary dividend" for the $6 WYNN divy. Obviously you thought it was.

So you are saying this is not an "ordinary divy" but is still not being adjusted.

Is that the case?


I was talking about options adjusting for dividend payouts in general, not WYNN specifically. Option strike prices will be adjusted if the stock's dividend, regular or special, is 10% or greater than the stock's price.

[IIC]

OK...I went to The WYNN today...Here's my report:

1) A "Wannabe" Bellagio...Nice flowers and fountains...but no comparison

2) Don't buy a drink...They cost more than my hotel room at The Excaliber

3) Nice marble modesty shields between the urinals...And check this...They have these "No Splash" pads in the urinals.

4) They need to post instructions on how to turn the faucets on...These are not your normal run of the mill motion sensors...After I figured it out I helped out 3 other guys get their hands washed.

5) Eat before you get here...You know how all the other fancy dancy hotels have at least one coffee shop...Well, the WYNN sorta has one...But with menu items over $30 I wouldn't really call it a coffee shop. Heck, the entree's in the nice restaurants were only $40.

6) They set up the shops so that you always come to a dead end and have to walk by all of the shops over again...Not a bad idea...But who can afford to buy anything anyway??? My wife saw a nice $1,200 pair of shoes...And I saw my first 40 karat diamond...Although I'm sure they have the same thing at Imposters over at Mandalay Bay for about 99% less...And then the have a Ferrari Dealership inside...But they didn't even have price tags on the little collector cars...I guess if you have to ask you can't afford it.

7) $300 minimum on the Blackjack tables!!!...And that was in the main casino...Wonder what it is over in the High Roller Area???...Maybe Dave knows???...However, they did have a few $15 min. tables.

8 )Except for the Poker Room...It was least crowded place I've been to so far...Maybe it is because they don't allow strollers in the hotel...What the heck kinda rule is that?...What???...Rich people don't have kids???

[lemonjello]

Nice report. That reminds me of something Wynn said on the conference call - something like - the small group of tables on the floor of the Macau casino is more profitable than their operations in LV. That's the general idea anyway. Operations in Macau could start taking away business from LV eventually if not already has done.

Macau is where it's at for Wynn. Unless China decides to clamp down it's going to be golden there for a long time.

I'm waiting for a pull back here. LVS might be an option too. Wynn + Macau + Asian gamblers = $$$$$$$$$.


OK...I went to The WYNN today...Here's my report:

1) A "Wannabe" Bellagio...Nice flowers and fountains...but no comparison

2) Don't buy a drink...They cost more than my hotel room at The Excaliber

3) Nice marble modesty shields between the urinals...And check this...They have these "No Splash" pads in the urinals.

4) They need to post instructions on how to turn the faucets on...These are not your normal run of the mill motion sensors...After I figured it out I helped out 3 other guys get their hands washed.

5) Eat before you get here...You know how all the other fancy dancy hotels have at least one coffee shop...Well, the WYNN sorta has one...But with menu items over $30 I wouldn't really call it a coffee shop. Heck, the entree's in the nice restaurants were only $40.

6) They set up the shops so that you always come to a dead end and have to walk by all of the shops over again...Not a bad idea...But who can afford to buy anything anyway??? My wife saw a nice $1,200 pair of shoes...And I saw my first 40 karat diamond...Although I'm sure they have the same thing at Imposters over at Mandalay Bay for about 99% less...And then the have a Ferrari Dealership inside...But they didn't even have price tags on the little collector cars...I guess if you have to ask you can't afford it.

7) $300 minimum on the Blackjack tables!!!...And that was in the main casino...Wonder what it is over in the High Roller Area???...Maybe Dave knows???...However, they did have a few $15 min. tables.

8 )Except for the Poker Room...It was least crowded place I've been to so far...Maybe it is because they don't allow strollers in the hotel...What the heck kinda rule is that?...What???...Rich people don't have kids???

[Runner]

WYNN has really melted up here and looks very bullish. I don’t buy breakouts but I come up a price target of around 104 longer term. Nice eye as I might see how it acts during a pullback.

I wonder if this will P/B and push to tgt or blast through it?

[lemonjello]

Weekly chart still looks strong. WYNN or LVS worth a shot here. Interesting they didn't pull back with the developing countries stocks much. In 3 or 4 years these stocks could be 5-10 baggers. MACAU MACAU MACAU. 2008 Olympics. What if all the Asian gamblers that now go to Vegas decide to hang at the new Asian strip?