Sector Action

[Runner]

I’m starting this thread where I can jot down some thoughts on sector action. I will be focusing on this purely from a TA perspective. The thoughts here are genuine and do not represent info from the gurus. The focus will be made on long term and short-term bases. My analysis will be wrong on several occasions and this is a given as I’m just not that good. Anyway I think it will be a nice log that I can refer back to.

[Gwhiz]

WHat are your thoughts on commodities?
IMO that gold is about to either break out or drop dramatically, waiting on the sidleines till it stays above 60

[Runner]

My first sector of interest is Telecom Domestic. I also added volume bars to this chart for those of you who like looking at volume. Here is a Macro look into the sector. First you’ll notice this guy has been basing out or running sideways for over 4 years. It is currently making multi year highs. I’m longer term bull in this sector right now.
http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/1127/telelb8.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Metals and Mining:
I’m longer term Bear in this sector on a macro basis as per monthly chart. I’m bull here on a micro level and think short-term profits might be made here.
http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/1551/metalsminingaa1.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I’m short-term bull in the Oil & Gas Refining group right now. I still would like to see a little upward acceleration in the group. However it is trying to recover off the lows.
http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/6708/oilgasho3.png (http://imageshack.us)
Energy does have some R to work through and I thus far like the fact it has worked itself past the inflection point. I would also like to see some acceleration to the upside here.
http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/2130/energysp7.png (http://imageshack.us)

[RL]

Runner great thread hope you stay with It. Wish I had the computer savy to do the things so many of you can do. If I did would start a contest to see who could reach $100,000,000 first. starting with $5000 and either by compounding a certain percentage or the $5000.However I have no clue on how to keep score or enter It as Rob for our POTW contest:confused:

[skiracer]

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/5663/vwoda5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img357.imageshack.us/img357/9418/iihcv5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[lemonjello]

Great thread idea. One good thing about ETFs, you don't check them in the morning and find they've gapped up or down against you very often. I think ETFs are the way to go.

[billyjoe]

Runner great thread hope you stay with It. Wish I had the computer savy to do the things so many of you can do. If I did would start a contest to see who could reach $100,000,000 first. starting with $5000 and either by compounding a certain percentage or the $5000.However I have no clue on how to keep score or enter It as Rob for our POTW contest:confused:

Ray,
Did you see the guy on the news who started with a paper clip on ebay and ended up with a house?

-------------billyjoe

[RL]

Ya I saw that Billy thought I might start with a staple watca think:confused:

[billyjoe]

Ray,
I think a paper clip is one trade better than a staple, but that's just my opinion. By the way, will your staple fit a tot2000 stapler? If so I might be able to use it.

-----------billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Runner,
In doing TA on sectors do you look at the chart exactly as if it were the chart of a stock and interpret it the same way? What is the best time period for basing a sector chart? Thanks

---------billyjoe

[Runner]

Runner,
In doing TA on sectors do you look at the chart exactly as if it were the chart of a stock and interpret it the same way? What is the best time period for basing a sector chart? Thanks

---------billyjoe

Billyjoe, I do look at sector charts the same as stocks. I like looking into longer term charts first. This mostly is from a monthly chart. Then a move down in times frames to a daily. If I see a bigger picture pattern in the monthly that is bullish it normally has more weight then a daily chart. The telecoms chart is longer term bullish to me right now..

[Runner]

Ski thanks for posting the ETF chart. I'm liking TTH right now and may look for a longer term trade in it. Here is a monthly chart of it
http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/2236/tthmr8.png (http://imageshack.us)
TTH has the following AT BCE BLS CBB CTL EQ LVLT Q S T TDS VZ WIN

[Runner]

WHat are your thoughts on commodities?
IMO that gold is about to either break out or drop dramatically, waiting on the sidleines till it stays above 60
I'm not very bullish in the GOLD groups right now. I don't like the gap down..

[Runner]

Here is an interesting longer term pattern. I'm longer bull here on a bust up through the upper trend line.
http://img306.imageshack.us/img306/9485/semiequipmateqg6.png (http://imageshack.us)

Weekly gives closer view of action
http://img306.imageshack.us/img306/6962/semiequipmateweeklytx5.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Computer Peripherals is trying to breakout to the upside.

http://img431.imageshack.us/img431/9927/computerhardwareje0.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img239.imageshack.us/img239/3650/computerhardwaredailyrx7.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I forgot to turn on the volume bars...

[Runner]

Metals and Mining:
I’m longer term Bear in this sector on a macro basis as per monthly chart. I’m bull here on a micro level and think short-term profits might be made here.
http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/1551/metalsminingaa1.png (http://imageshack.us)

WOW several stocks in this group melted up today. Remember your commodity related stocks trade independent of the broader market Indices.

[Runner]

Using the bottoms up approach I’m finding some set ups to the long side in the following groups.

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 4 stocks
Independent Oil & Gas 3
Commo Equuipment 2
Apparel Stores 2

[Runner]

I’m short-term bull in the Oil & Gas Refining group right now. I still would like to see a little upward acceleration in the group. However it is trying to recover off the lows.
http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/6708/oilgasho3.png (http://imageshack.us)
Energy does have some R to work through and I thus far like the fact it has worked itself past the inflection point. I would also like to see some acceleration to the upside here.
http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/2130/energysp7.png (http://imageshack.us)

Energy is trying and I'm beginning to see set ups. I think short term profits might be made here.

[Runner]

Midweek RSI group scan. Numbers indicate percent change over last 2 weeks

http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/9894/grouprsi10256kv8.png (http://imageshack.us)

[peanuts]

Midweek RSI group scan. Numbers indicate percent change over last 2 weeks

Can you share the negatives as well, please?

[Runner]

Can you share the negatives as well, please?
Group down rsi
http://img307.imageshack.us/img307/1912/grouprsidown10256ij6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[billyjoe]

Runner,
Don't know if you've done this yet. Could you post charts of perhaps the top 5 sectors or groups with the S&P 500 performance over the same time period ? It seems to me that the top sectors would prove to be more stable in a short time span than the S&P , but I could be wrong. Thanks

------------billyjoe

You can use comparison with any index you think is significant . S&P seems to be one that would be relevant.

[Runner]

Runner,
Don't know if you've done this yet. Could you post charts of perhaps the top 5 sectors or groups with the S&P 500 performance over the same time period ? It seems to me that the top sectors would prove to be more stable in a short time span than the S&P , but I could be wrong. Thanks

------------billyjoe

You can use comparison with any index you think is significant . S&P seems to be one that would be relevant.

Billyjoe, I can do that. What time frame would you like the "look back" to be? I normally will use the highs and lows of the S&P for the scan.

[Runner]

Here is a delta scan using the S&P highs on 5/8/6 to current. During this time the S&P has increased by 3.98%. The following sub-groups have been tracking very well.

Major Airlines 23.78%
Telecom Services-Domestic 21.65%
Reit-Residential 19.92%
Toys & Games 19.00%
Reit-Healthcare Facilities 18.80%

I’ve been Bull in Telecom for a good while. Heck I’m looking to change cable services and went to BLS’s site last night and was impressed with BellSouth.

[Runner]

Billyjoe, should you have a particular groups chart you would like posted just give me a shoot. I've always believed being in the right group is about 1/2 the battle. Most disagree with this but that is ok. We all do things differently.

[billyjoe]

Runner,
How about S&P vs. insurance for the last 12 months and maybe commercial real estate. Thanks

----------billyjoe

[Runner]

Runner,
How about S&P vs. insurance for the last 12 months and maybe commercial real estate. Thanks

----------billyjoe

Billyjoe, the S&P500 has increased 8.55% since 1/3/6. Insurance sector has increased 7.93%. It does track pretty close to the S&P. I expect It to pullback if the S&P should do the same. Real Estate is currently up 21.17% for the year.

[billyjoe]

Billyjoe, should you have a particular groups chart you would like posted just give me a shoot. I've always believed being in the right group is about 1/2 the battle. Most disagree with this but that is ok. We all do things differently.

Runner,
You know how they say 80% of the stocks go down as the market drops? I agree that if you're in the right group you can do better especially by adapting to the best group's movements. That is if you want to be in the market at all during a downturn.

--------------billyjoe

[Runner]

Your spot on Billyjoe. You can often get your best shorts out of the high flyers after a nice thrust down. I normally don’t play the tops as the bull can bite your butt.

[Runner]

My end of week scans did not look very impressive and this will force me into a more defensive posture going forward from this point. I'll be looking for signs of weakness in the near term. As for long side Commodity related stocks may be a play. I'll be monitoring the Indices to see how they will act during a pullback.

[Runner]

Here is a list of groups that are setting up on the long side

Oil & Gas Equip and Services 4
Indep. Oil & Gas 3
Ind. Metals & minerals 3
Steel & Iron 4

[peanuts]

Here is a list of groups that are setting up on the long side

Oil & Gas Equip and Services 4
Indep. Oil & Gas 3
Ind. Metals & minerals 3
Steel & Iron 4

Runner, this is very interesting for me. USLM (one of my stocks) has oil and gas wells in the Barnett Shale formation, they mine minerals (lime, limestone, and aggregate), and they supply alot of product to Steel... I like the list of groups that you have up there.

What do you think? USLM is ready, baby!!!

[Runner]

Runner, this is very interesting for me. USLM (one of my stocks) has oil and gas wells in the Barnett Shale formation, they mine minerals (lime, limestone, and aggregate), and they supply alot of product to Steel... I like the list of groups that you have up there.

What do you think? USLM is ready, baby!!!
Peanuts, we shall see I've got some studying to do with my initial punch out list. X stopped me out today but I see a few others in the group setting up long.

[Runner]

Scan returns show a lot of wide range bars. This just confirms my cautious stand. As for the S&P500 the longer term uptrend remains in Tact. The Nas is testing the longer term trendline. Dow30 still in a longer term uptrend.

[billyjoe]

Runner,
I can't find a current housing index chart. How much longer until we bottom out on this one or has it already happened? Thanks

-----------billyjoe

[IIC]

Runner,
I can't find a current housing index chart. How much longer until we bottom out on this one or has it already happened? Thanks

-----------billyjoe

What kind of housing index chart are you looking for?

[Websman]

Runner,
I can't find a current housing index chart. How much longer until we bottom out on this one or has it already happened? Thanks

-----------billyjoe

Judging from the real estate market in my area, I don't think we've gotten close yet. property is still at a stand still. Nobody can afford it.
It has gotten to a point where a family with an average income cannot afford a home.

[billyjoe]

What kind of housing index chart are you looking for?

Doug,
Anything along the order of the PHLX housing index . For some reason I can't find it after June '06.

----------billyjoe

[IIC]

Doug,
Anything along the order of the PHLX housing index . For some reason I can't find it after June '06.

----------billyjoe

That's funny...I was just looking around for you and that is the one I found...here's a chart link: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HGX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28298770047

And here are the components: http://www.phlx.com/products/sectors/hgxcomp.htm

[IIC]

BTW...If you are looking for index charts, this page at stockcharts has a lot of them...You do not have to be a subscriber to access it:

http://stockcharts.com/symsearch?$

[Runner]

Runner,
I can't find a current housing index chart. How much longer until we bottom out on this one or has it already happened? Thanks

-----------billyjoe

Billyjoe, here is the weekly and daily chart of the PHLX. Notice the daily needs to get over the red line. Where it goes from here is any body's guess. I don't follow this index much.
http://img187.imageshack.us/img187/9839/housingeg5.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img187.imageshack.us/img187/7531/housing2df9.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I've looked over all 237 sub group charts and notice many right at the bottom the their trend lines. I'm not reading much into this action yet but if the down slide continues many groups could be in trouble. For now the trend is still up. The Drug Related Products group looks like it is in a first thrust down. Transitional shorts might be coming in this group. Drug Stores is another weak looking group. Hospitals look sick. I have not looked into the groups for set ups yet.
http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/8684/drugslm7.png (http://imageshack.us)

[dmk112]

Sectors: I like...GOLD, METALS and OILS.

I think we may be in store for a correction here in the non-commodoties.

[Runner]

Sectors: I like...GOLD, METALS and OILS.

I think we may be in store for a correction here in the non-commodoties.

DMK that is where I'm focusing. I messed around and missed GLD the other day.

[dmk112]

DMK that is where I'm focusing. I messed around and missed GLD the other day.

Utilities too...I messed up too with D. I missed the order by some pennies...Sometimes I think I obsess too much over the perfect entry and tha's how I miss some good ones. It broke up nicely today.

[Runner]

Utilities too...I messed up too with D. I missed the order by some pennies...Sometimes I think I obsess too much over the perfect entry and tha's how I miss some good ones. It broke up nicely today.

I think it is funny how often we lose dollars farting around with pennies..LOL

[Runner]

Well several on my Friday's list did well today. I did not buy any as It has been a very busy day. I just got back from an awesome concert. My wife and I went to see America. Old group and I bet many on this forum remember this group from the late 60's.

I do not see much from my scans going into next week. Here was my target list for today.

ACI STLD RES NDAQ GLDN PETD PBR XTO PCU FST PXJ

[IIC]

Well several on my Friday's list did well today. I did not buy any as It has been a very busy day. I just got back from an awesome concert. My wife and I went to see America. Old group and I bet many on this forum remember this group from the late 60's.

I do not see much from my scans going into next week. Here was my target list for today.

ACI STLD RES NDAQ GLDN PETD PBR XTO PCU FST PXJ


I remember AMERICA...but from the 70's...They sang "Horse With No Name"...On the first part of the journey...blah blah blah...I liked that song

[Runner]

I remember AMERICA...but from the 70's...They sang "Horse With No Name"...On the first part of the journey...blah blah blah...I liked that song

Doug, "Horse With No Name" was the final song they sang tonight. I thought you would remember them as they are from California. They kept the same sound and same members except the bass player. They also will be releasing a new album in Jan called "Here and Now".

[Gwhiz]

the gold industry has BEEN breaking out.

THoughts on REITs?

[IIC]

Here are the MG Sectors sorted by 3 mo % performance:

http://img429.imageshack.us/img429/2401/mgsectors11306py9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

If you would like to break it down by group and then by group components you can do so starting here: http://trimurl.com/87F ...IIC

[Runner]

the gold industry has BEEN breaking out.

THoughts on REITs?

Which one? Many have busted down out of channels

[Runner]

Here are the MG Sectors sorted by 3 mo % performance:

http://img429.imageshack.us/img429/2401/mgsectors11306py9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

If you would like to break it down by group and then by group components you can do so starting here: http://trimurl.com/87F ...IIC

I can break it down further. This is a scan using the S&P500 from its current top to current day. During this slight pullback the S&P500 has lost 1.78%. The following Majors have increased over same period.
Metals & Mining .93%
Chemicals .46
Diversified Services .02

Largest drop was in Retail -4.76%

[skiracer]

One of my favorite groups along with CSN and CNSY sometimes. Was it "Ventura Hwy". One of my favs.

[Runner]

One of my favorite groups along with CSN and CNSY sometimes. Was it "Ventura Hwy". One of my favs.

Ski, the concert was awesome. We had great seats right up in the front. What I like about America is they are still true to their style and sound.
http://www.venturahighway.com/index.php?&MMN_position=1:1

[dmk112]

The OILS bounced really nicely on Friday (without me :() although I do still have some calls in the XLE so it's not too bad.

[IIC]

the gold industry has BEEN breaking out.

THoughts on REITs?

Depends on your goals...as a fairly conservative long term strategy REIT's are a good bet for maybe a 12% annualized gain.

But if you are looking at 1-3 years I would suggest that you investigate different REIT sectors. Just off the top of my head I think those that invest in Apartment Buildings should do well the next couple of years as housing affordability, even w/ prices dropping, will keep apartment vacancy rates low...Not to mention all the people that get foreclosed...They'll have to move somewhere and unless a bunch of apt. renters snap up foreclosures I think apartments will do well.

Speaking of apartments, I live in West LA...A new complex opened up on a major street (Venice Blvd) not all that far from me. I would not call it a "Prime" area like Wilshire Blvd. or Century City...It is probably 5 or 6 miles from the beach...The 3 bedrooms are going for $2,895mo...It seems to be filling up pretty fast too....Doug(IIC)

[Runner]

Well the last few days I’ve been trying to get my new DLS service working with my router and about got the thing worked out. I only need to configure my new bellsouth e-mail. Man I had no clue how intense setting up a router could be.

Here is current RSI standing on percent bases for the groups (look back 2 weeks).

Top:
Broadcasting-Radio
Marketing Services
Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
Telecom Services Foreign
PERSONAL Service
Semi-Specialized
Cement
Semi-integrated Cir

Bottom:
Surety & Title Insurance
Reit-Residential
Discount Variety Stores
Reit Office
Retail
Grocery Stores
Reit Retail

[Runner]

Here is the RSI scan from the Majors:

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/6126/majorsal6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[billyjoe]

Home builders today warned that the housing slowdown shows no sign of stopping. Stocks of major builders had little reaction a sign that weakness is already priced into the stocks.

----------billyjoe

[Runner]

The Residential Construction group is currently in a first thrust down. This group may offer some shorting after next pullback. Notice the break of the wedge..
http://img380.imageshack.us/img380/6264/residentialconstructiontx5.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

The Aluminum group is currently in a nice trend accelerated mode. We will watch for longs during next pull back. The trend meets my criteria on cleanness and bull power.
http://img469.imageshack.us/img469/9781/aluminummn7.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Many group charts look like my high speed drawing. This could cause one to get suspicious on the long side. Or wait for the group to break out to the upside. I'm always cautious of groups pausing or stalling near old highs.

http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/5040/exks7.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Thanks for the posts on housing and aluminum. Aluminum I find to be very interesting. AA is not moving anywhere. Of course, in my opinion, I think it is a crummy company. But what company is the top aluminum producer in the eyes of that Eagle, Runner?

[peanuts]

The Aluminum group is currently in a nice trend accelerated mode. We will watch for longs during next pull back. The trend meets my criteria on cleanness and bull power.
http://img469.imageshack.us/img469/9781/aluminummn7.png (http://imageshack.us)

RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS

Did I get my point across??? :D

[Runner]

RS does look pretty good. Here are a few leaders from this group

CENX ACH AL NX TG

NB I think AA might be trying to turn and we shall see.

[peanuts]

Runner,

Hey bud, what do you think of the Electronics sector? I've been looking at WEX and BHE for next week. I'm wondering if you see strength in the sector? Thanks a millioin (I hope ;) )

[Runner]

Electronics bottomed in 2002 and since has climbed 113%. First chart is a monthly and shows a retest of the lower channel line. I would like to see this sector break above upper channel. I would become very bullish on the bust out over upper channel. Monthly or longer term would plant me in wait and see mode.

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/6001/electronicsud5.png (http://imageshack.us)

Weekly chart does raise some caution on the long side or entry. I don’t like how it stalled and could not push on higher. It has however been consolidating or going sideways for about 9 weeks.

http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/7420/electronics1ow8.png (http://imageshack.us)

Here is the daily. I left the overlay on from the weekly. Notice the sideways action in the sector. This just does not have enough momentum for me at this time. I do how ever like the fact it is still above the 89ema.

http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/5878/electronics2uu4.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Metals and Mining:
I’m longer term Bear in this sector on a macro basis as per monthly chart. I’m bull here on a micro level and think short-term profits might be made here.
http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/1551/metalsminingaa1.png (http://imageshack.us)

The steel group did offer some short term gains. I'm still bull here but I'm noticing some signs of caution in the group. I don't recommend opening new long positions in this group until it takes out old highs and pulls back. Short Positions may present an opportunity but currently I see no set ups.

http://img387.imageshack.us/img387/4072/steelsm4.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I’m short-term bull in the Oil & Gas Refining group right now. I still would like to see a little upward acceleration in the group. However it is trying to recover off the lows.
http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/6708/oilgasho3.png (http://imageshack.us)
Energy does have some R to work through and I thus far like the fact it has worked itself past the inflection point. I would also like to see some acceleration to the upside here.
http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/2130/energysp7.png (http://imageshack.us)

Oil & Gas did offer short term gains on the long side. I did like the nice retest of the trend line. It currently is near Resistance and I do not recommend long positions here.

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/1152/oilgastj2.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

My first sector of interest is Telecom Domestic. I also added volume bars to this chart for those of you who like looking at volume. Here is a Macro look into the sector. First you’ll notice this guy has been basing out or running sideways for over 4 years. It is currently making multi year highs. I’m longer term bull in this sector right now.
http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/1127/telelb8.png (http://imageshack.us)

Telecom has been in P/B mode pretty much since posting it here. I'm still longer term bull in this group.

[peanuts]

I LOVE THIS THREAD!!!!! Keep it up Runner. You're helping me out so much, bud.

I'm starting to see the turn in steel also. The winter projections are worse than I thought.

The good news, is that the Chinese glut was a one time thing that was done to avoid paying an export tax on steel and processing metals which took place after September. China is adding alot of taxes, and reducing tax incentives on many of their exports. Steel was one of the early products to see this move by the gov't.

The future impact of Chinese steel imports should not be as severe as this one-time over-supply.

[Runner]

Here is an interesting longer term pattern. I'm longer bull here on a bust up through the upper trend line.
http://img306.imageshack.us/img306/9485/semiequipmateqg6.png (http://imageshack.us)

Weekly gives closer view of action
http://img306.imageshack.us/img306/6962/semiequipmateweeklytx5.png (http://imageshack.us)

Semi Equip chart still looks interesting to me. Notice the lower trendline has been acting as good support, same for the top as far as resistance. I say let the group show its hand before entering into the group. I do believe a nice move is coming and direction is unclear to me at this time. A bust up or down might equal distance to old highs in either direction.

http://img381.imageshack.us/img381/573/semielectds2.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I LOVE THIS THREAD!!!!! Keep it up Runner. You're helping me out so much, bud.

I'm starting to see the turn in steel also. The winter projections are worse than I thought.

The good news, is that the Chinese glut was a one time thing that was done to avoid paying an export tax on steel and processing metals which took place after September. China is adding alot of taxes, and reducing tax incentives on many of their exports. Steel was one of the early products to see this move by the gov't.

The future impact of Chinese steel imports should not be as severe as this one-time over-supply.

Peanuts thanks for your kind words...

[Runner]

The Aluminum group is currently in a nice trend accelerated mode. We will watch for longs during next pull back. The trend meets my criteria on cleanness and bull power.
http://img469.imageshack.us/img469/9781/aluminummn7.png (http://imageshack.us)

I'm beginning to see set ups on the long side...

[lemonjello]

I second peanuts - keep up the good work runner. Great thread.

[Jim Smith]

best thread on this site......

[Runner]

lemonjello and Jim thank you for your kind words. I wont mention individual stocks much here but just some groups that I think look interesting.

[Runner]

I’m beginning to see some possible long set-ups in the GOLD group at this time. This might offer a possible 2nd entry for us that missed the first one. I’m also beginning to see shorts setting up in the APPAREL STORES. Several stocks within this group are beginning to wedge up.

[IIC]

I LOVE THIS THREAD!!!!! Keep it up Runner. You're helping me out so much, bud.

I'm starting to see the turn in steel also. The winter projections are worse than I thought.

The good news, is that the Chinese glut was a one time thing that was done to avoid paying an export tax on steel and processing metals which took place after September. China is adding alot of taxes, and reducing tax incentives on many of their exports. Steel was one of the early products to see this move by the gov't.

The future impact of Chinese steel imports should not be as severe as this one-time over-supply.

I didn't know that...thx for the heads up Peanuts...Doug

[Runner]

Semi Equip chart still looks interesting to me. Notice the lower trendline has been acting as good support, same for the top as far as resistance. I say let the group show its hand before entering into the group. I do believe a nice move is coming and direction is unclear to me at this time. A bust up or down might equal distance to old highs in either direction.

http://img381.imageshack.us/img381/573/semielectds2.png (http://imageshack.us)

This group chart is currently poking over the upper trendline!!

[skiracer]

I LOVE THIS THREAD!!!!! Keep it up Runner. You're helping me out so much, bud.

I'm starting to see the turn in steel also. The winter projections are worse than I thought.

The good news, is that the Chinese glut was a one time thing that was done to avoid paying an export tax on steel and processing metals which took place after September. China is adding alot of taxes, and reducing tax incentives on many of their exports. Steel was one of the early products to see this move by the gov't.

The future impact of Chinese steel imports should not be as severe as this one-time over-supply.

It is a great thread and the best way to play the strong sectors and the strong stocks in those sectors is to be abreast of which sectors and groups are showing strength at the moment and which ones aren't. Runner has done a fine job with it and it is definitely worth paying close attention to.

[Runner]

The following groups have outperformed the S&P500 during the Month of December over the last 3 years.
http://img300.imageshack.us/img300/6853/outperformmv8.png (http://imageshack.us)

[IIC]

Runner...can you give me a coupla tix in the Synthetics group?...thx...Doug

[Runner]

Runner...can you give me a coupla tix in the Synthetics group?...thx...Doug

Sure Doug here they are:

PONR ALB ROC ESL CMP HUN IFF WLM CCC ICOC LNDC TORM SHI GGC AWC LDL POL RHA NCX ARJ NL NLC BZ VHI TRX MTX SQM PX BF IPHS

[IIC]

Sure Doug here they are:

PONR ALB ROC ESL CMP HUN IFF WLM CCC ICOC LNDC TORM SHI GGC AWC LDL POL RHA NCX ARJ NL NLC BZ VHI TRX MTX SQM PX BF IPHS

Coupla = 2...LOL

Thanks again...Doug

[Runner]

Since the group is small I thought I'd give the entire list as I have it..

[stocks54]

Great thread. Keep it up. Do you guys like any particular stock in the synthetics group?

Best Regards,
Stocks54

[IIC]

Great thread. Keep it up. Do you guys like any particular stock in the synthetics group?

Best Regards,
Stocks54


Well...I own ICOC.

Here are some little charts of the group:

PONR, ALB, ROC, ESL, CMP, HUN, IFF, WLM, CCC, ICOC, LNDC, TORM, SHI, GGC, AWC, LDL, POL, RHA, NCX, ARJ, NL, NLC, BZ, VHI, TRX, MTX, SQM, PX, BF, IPHS

http://trimurl.com/9HL

http://trimurl.com/9HM

[stocks54]

Thank you.

[IIC]

Thank you.


No Problemo Stocks...BTW...Good to to see you are still among the living...How about some more posts... :)

[stocks54]

IIC,

I am 95% invested in Elan (mainly options).

I had great paper profit on my option twice duing 2006 but greed stopped me from taking some profit of the table.

I think I need to rethink my investment strategy.

Stocks54...

[IIC]

IIC,

I am 95% invested in Elan (mainly options).

I had great paper profit on my option twice duing 2006 but greed stopped me from taking some profit of the table.

I think I need to rethink my investment strategy.

Stocks54...

I've been thru that many times...best to trim on the way up...or at least safer...Doug

[stocks54]

If there is increas in ELN PPS before Jan 07 expiery I will book some prfit and look for other opportunity.

I am trying to stick to my plan this time around.

[peanuts]

RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS

Did I get my point across??? :D

I guess that Cramer got my point ;)

[lemonjello]

Good call on the metals guys. Now. How much further?

[Runner]

Good call on the metals guys. Now. How much further?

Who knows with any certainty. I've not looked at a chart all last week and will need to get back on track. I noticed I was early to my GOLD play and got a quick stop out before the real move.

[Runner]

I’m seeing a lot of groups got a nice wide range bar down today and this puts me in a defensive posture. Not reading much into today’s action alone but I will be looking for transitional set-ups going forward. Many groups have busted down out of their channels on a daily. If we continue to thrust down for a few days we might see some set ups on the short side.

[skiracer]

Here's something regarding gold and silver sectors that I found interesting. I'm still holding the gold ETF GLD from 46. Looking for a breakout in both gold and silver and some related stocks in those two baskets AEM being one of them. I've been holding 1000 shares of GLD since last May and if gold breaksout and goes to 69/70 range from todays levels as I expect it could, I'll be exiting the position before years end or sooner.

http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/1555/goldandsilvercr9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img451.imageshack.us/img451/1240/goldandsilver2wk8.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img451.imageshack.us/img451/8550/goldandsilver3aj7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Ski, thanks for the metals update...

[Runner]

The Office Supply group appears to be trying to roll over. Nice sideways action for a few months and then a nice thrust out of the range. I don’t see any set ups in the group yet but maybe next bump up or retest of gap might offer a short play…

http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/2061/officesuppliesqc1.png (http://imageshack.us)

[peanuts]

I am seeing strength in the oil and natural gas service stocks, today. If this continues to Friday, we might be in for another rally in the sector, soon. The size of which would be the real question...

[Runner]

I am seeing strength in the oil and natural gas service stocks, today. If this continues to Friday, we might be in for another rally in the sector, soon. The size of which would be the real question...

I personally would wait for the energy groups to prove they can bust through old highs before I'd get to excited about them.

[peanuts]

I personally would wait for the energy groups to prove they can bust through old highs before I'd get to excited about them.

you are right. I should have said, "bounce", not "rally" I have doubts whether old highs will be taken out en mass.

[Runner]

I see possible short-term gains on the long side in the following groups:

Application Software (3)
Farm & Construction Machinery (3)
Residential Construction (3)
Cement (2)
Steel & Iron (3)
Gold (2)

[Runner]

I’m beginning to see some possible long set-ups in the GOLD group at this time. This might offer a possible 2nd entry for us that missed the first one. I’m also beginning to see shorts setting up in the APPAREL STORES. Several stocks within this group are beginning to wedge up.

I was wrong here with Apparel stores..

[Runner]

Here are my Delta Scans of groups outperforming the S&P500 from last top on 11/22/06 to current day. During this time frame the S&P was down .47%. Once again commodity related groups move out in front. Oil and or Energy in general is looking pretty good and we might be interested in entering on a pull back. Peanuts caught the strength yesterday and we shall see how they handle a p/b.

http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/5580/delta1129ba8.png (http://imageshack.us)

[peanuts]

Here are my Delta Scans of groups outperforming the S&P500 from last top on 11/22/06 to current day. During this time frame the S&P was down .47%. Once again commodity related groups move out in front. Oil and or Energy in general is looking pretty good and we might be interested in entering on a pull back. Peanuts caught the strength yesterday and we shall see how they handle a p/b.

http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/5580/delta1129ba8.png (http://imageshack.us)

Runner, I combined a list of some of the stocks from the top sectors and then looked at some fundamentals and then the charts... WNR was by far, the best-play candidate if the strength in Oil and Natural Gas continues. Today, it brokeout from a very large Cup and Handle:

http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/4356/wnr112806ly3.png

NRG was a close second place

[Runner]

I like this group above the R-line. I think it could move to old highs here on a break...

http://img244.imageshack.us/img244/8427/farmconcg1.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Runner, I combined a list of some of the stocks from the top sectors and then looked at some fundamentals and then the charts... WNR was by far, the best-play candidate if the strength in Oil and Natural Gas continues. Today, it brokeout from a very large Cup and Handle:

NRG was a close second place

WNR may pullback some this morning a give a great opportunity to enter near the breakout level.

[New-born baby]

WNR may pullback some this morning a give a great opportunity to enter near the breakout level.

$27.63 is the breakout level. I'd be looking around that area--say, about $27.88 for an entry.

[peanuts]

$27.63 is the breakout level. I'd be looking around that area--say, about $27.88 for an entry.

I put in an order at $28 even

[peanuts]

WNR may pullback some this morning a give a great opportunity to enter near the breakout level.

XCO is also looking very nice in this sector

[Runner]

I see possible short-term gains on the long side in the following groups:

Application Software (3)
Farm & Construction Machinery (3)
Residential Construction (3)
Cement (2)
Steel & Iron (3)
Gold (2)

Few pop outs in the groups!!

[Runner]

The Office Supply group appears to be trying to roll over. Nice sideways action for a few months and then a nice thrust out of the range. I don’t see any set ups in the group yet but maybe next bump up or retest of gap might offer a short play…

http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/2061/officesuppliesqc1.png (http://imageshack.us)

Sec triggers short

[Runner]

I put in an order at $28 even

Peanuts, I have order in at exact same price..lol

[New-born baby]

Peanuts, I have order in at exact same price..lol

And both of ya won't get filled today. lol

Well, I bit the bullet and bought the dog anyway. I like this chart. What does Runner say: don't let a few pennies keep you from a big dollar profit.

[Runner]

And both of ya won't get filled today. lol

Well, I bit the bullet and bought the dog anyway. I like this chart. What does Runner say: don't let a few pennies keep you from a big dollar profit.

NB, you might be right but then again you might be wrong. I'll need to leave for a while and if it gets filled great. If not no biggie. I;m sure more will. Hey did you notice HOV, tol today?

[New-born baby]

NB, you might be right but then again you might be wrong. I'll need to leave for a while and if it gets filled great. If not no biggie. I;m sure more will. Hey did you notice HOV, tol today?

I hope you get your shares and BIG $$$$ profit, Runner.
TOL and HOV are moving up on the idea that interest rates will move South. GOLD stocks moving up, too.

[Runner]

Another thing I like to do and have not posted it much is run the same scan through the ETF's. Now we all know ETF's have baskets of stocks with in a sector and so by running this simple scan it lets you see what ETF's or baskets are perfoming stronger then the S&P. Here is tonights list
http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/3906/etf113006kh8.png (http://imageshack.us)

[mimo_100]

I just found this link to an interesting website. They attempt to predict the future using chart analysis and anything else. It tries to predict the market, the price of gold, oil, commodities, and interest rates. What do you think of this?

http://www.astrocycle.net/LongWaves.shtml (http://www.astrocycle.net/LongWaves.shtml)

Tim

[peanuts]

Peanuts, I have order in at exact same price..lol

I was stubborn and I did not get my order filled because I decided that I only wanted to pay $28. I hope it is not a mistake.

I went through some breakout scans of mine and Financial Services closed strongly yesterday. Some in the group that came up on the scan are these:
ACAS AHL ENH FFG MCGC RVSB

[New-born baby]

NB, you might be right but then again you might be wrong. I'll need to leave for a while and if it gets filled great. If not no biggie. I;m sure more will. Hey did you notice HOV, tol today?

Today you get your chance, if you still want it. Down $1.03 in the premarket.

[Runner]

I’m noticing the market is at a possible inflection point right here. Currently I believe the risks going long in non-commodity stocks outweigh the rewards. I don’t like the stall out prior to the S&P 500’s highs. I’m still a Bull but a concerned bull at this juncture. I’m not sure the strength I’m seeing in commodity stocks is a positive factor for this current rally.
I still think transition shorts are in the making and will be watching for confirmation on this thought.

I more likely then not I will not enter long positions next week as I will await a bust out of old highs in the Indices and change my thought process should this occur. Aggressive shorts might have entered today on a trigger off the drifting action. I have not a clue where we go from here but I’ll be looking for shorts.

Have a great weekend!!

[dmk112]

I’m noticing the market is at a possible inflection point right here. Currently I believe the risks going long in non-commodity stocks outweigh the rewards. I don’t like the stall out prior to the S&P 500’s highs. I’m still a Bull but a concerned bull at this juncture. I’m not sure the strength I’m seeing in commodity stocks is a positive factor for this current rally.
I still think transition shorts are in the making and will be watching for confirmation on this thought.

I more likely then not I will not enter long positions next week as I will await a bust out of old highs in the Indices and change my thought process should this occur. Aggressive shorts might have entered today on a trigger off the drifting action. I have not a clue where we go from here but I’ll be looking for shorts.

Have a great weekend!!


I agree Runner... OILS look good! It may be shorty time very soon..

[lemonjello]

All the oil service and drillers look good HP, RIG, HAL, BHI

even ANDW and FLR.

Looks like the stock market is pointing to higher oil.

[lemonjello]

Interesting - it seems to correspond to this chart I posted in the Skulduggery thread -

http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/8105/spxgldfq7.png (http://imageshack.us)

Runner - can you do a real ewave count on this chart?


I just found this link to an interesting website. They attempt to predict the future using chart analysis and anything else. It tries to predict the market, the price of gold, oil, commodities, and interest rates. What do you think of this?

http://www.astrocycle.net/LongWaves.shtml (http://www.astrocycle.net/LongWaves.shtml)

Tim

[Runner]

I think where you have the THREE might be a FIVE

[lemonjello]

Any ideas where EW would say it is going from here?


I think where you have the THREE might be a FIVE

[skiracer]

I think where you have the THREE might be a FIVE

I could agree with your take Runner. If that were a 5 then the chart would be finishing a c down and this next wave would be the start of a 1 up.

[lemonjello]

Now that would be a good thing. IMO further down would indicate stagflation - bad. Next leg up indicates inflation controlled, $ strong, market and economy strong.

I could agree with your take Runner. If that were a 5 then the chart would be finishing a c down and this next wave would be the start of a 1 up.

[skiracer]

Now that would be a good thing. IMO further down would indicate stagflation - bad. Next leg up indicates inflation controlled, $ strong, market and economy strong.

Lemon,
Do you think the dollar could continue down from here and gold, which tracks inversely to the dollar, move up and the markets trend up at the same time. Would a weakening dollar make our products ( exports) more economical thus attractive but at the same time be a negative factor towards foreign investors buying our bonds and treasuries. To be honest I don't know if I want the dollar to strengthen to much. Also, so much depends on the geo-political situation in the middle east.

[lemonjello]

Ski,

Tough questions. My opinion -

I guess that's possible - I shouldn't have written $strong, but $stable. At this point I think mechanisms will start kicking in to hold the $ above it's previous lows (see the skullduggery $ chart). IMO there seem to be two likely diametric outcomes implied by the SPX/GOLD chart - stagflation - inflation goes up, economy(SPX) slows down (very bad) (chart goes down) and growth with the $stable or moving up (very good) (chart goes up).

There are also some other scenarios like weak gold and economy (SPX) tanking even faster - deflation, depression (very very bad) (chart could go up). I think Bernanke, as he's mentioned, would start dropping $100 bills from helicopters before that happened.

Can gold keep going up and the economy stay strong based on increased exports? IMO it can but not to extremes - some inflation, the $ stays down and exports increase.

Will the Asians stop buying US bonds? I don't see how growth in China (or India, Vietnam, etc.) can slow down for a long time given their population and drive. The Asian banks always sound like they're going to stop holding $ and buying US bonds, but they are sort of locked in and keep doing it anyway. The bond market will make the call and it seems to be saying lower rates.

There are a lot of question marks, like the middle east, the inverted yield curve, which everyone ignored in 2000 btw, but IMO if the $ stabilizes here or a little lower things don't look so bad. Besides what if we slowly pulled out of the middle east and used the "war money" to develop alternate energy sources or provide everyone in the US with medical insurance or some other crazy idea.

Look at the builder stocks - They predicted the downturn in housing over a year ago and have stopped dropping at their long term trend line - TOL for instance. Greenspan thinks the housing sector drop is over. Not bad if true.

This economy has taken some incredible hits the last seven years and bounced back so I'm cautiously optimistic.


Lemon,
Do you think the dollar could continue down from here and gold, which tracks inversely to the dollar, move up and the markets trend up at the same time. Would a weakening dollar make our products ( exports) more economical thus attractive but at the same time be a negative factor towards foreign investors buying our bonds and treasuries. To be honest I don't know if I want the dollar to strengthen to much. Also, so much depends on the geo-political situation in the middle east.

[Runner]

I’m noticing the market is at a possible inflection point right here. Currently I believe the risks going long in non-commodity stocks outweigh the rewards. I don’t like the stall out prior to the S&P 500’s highs. I’m still a Bull but a concerned bull at this juncture. I’m not sure the strength I’m seeing in commodity stocks is a positive factor for this current rally.
I still think transition shorts are in the making and will be watching for confirmation on this thought.

I more likely then not I will not enter long positions next week as I will await a bust out of old highs in the Indices and change my thought process should this occur. Aggressive shorts might have entered today on a trigger off the drifting action. I have not a clue where we go from here but I’ll be looking for shorts.

Have a great weekend!!


I’m still waiting to see which direction the wind blows. I can say I’ve been noticing many sectors beginning to show signs of drifting sideways. I’m not Bear yet and still think downside plays might pay off. It has not been easy shorting as of late with the market all bulled up. One thing about shorting off current levels you will know if you’re wrong by looking at the price. If it pops over old highs take your medicine and move on.

Thus far this week I have ran across some shorting opportunities but the scans have not returned much in either direction. I do plan to track my sector list of those groups that have outperformed the S&P over the last 3 years for the month on December. I’ll post the results after each week.

[Runner]

Week 1 S&P +.94%

http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7746/decsector1pi3.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I'm starting to see bullish signs in Health related stocks

[Runner]

He is a chart of the Home Health Care. What I like about this chart is a pop out of the base. Now I’m not going to run out and buy any here, as I’d like to see a nice orderly P/B with trigger. This pattern is one of my favorites, as I like the first pullback after a base.

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/3407/healthcareej3.png (http://imageshack.us)

[dmk112]

Runner-what do you think about the OILS...in particular the XOI?

I like the b/o yesterday but it looks like it may be a false one? what u think?

[Runner]

Runner-what do you think about the OILS...in particular the XOI?

I like the b/o yesterday but it looks like it may be a false one? what u think?
DMK, I remain Bull here until chart shows otherwise...

[Runner]

I'm becoming bullish in the DRUG STORE group. I like how the group has bounced off new lows and may be changing character.

[Runner]

Week 1 S&P +.94%

http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7746/decsector1pi3.png (http://imageshack.us)

Thus far during the month of December the S&P has managed to drop .15%… Choppy action their to say the least. Here is the performance the group scans thus far for month of December.

http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/9245/decsectoriike7.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I'm becoming bullish in the DRUG STORE group. I like how the group has bounced off new lows and may be changing character.

By the way thus far for the month of December Drug Stores leads all 239 groups I track with a 10.78% gain. Home Health care is up about 7.67%

[Runner]

List of groups that have outperformed the S&P500 every Jan since 2003

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/2351/jangrouplisthv6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

This is a monthly look at CATV Systems. Notice this chart is moving out to the upside here. I’m longer term bull in this group going into 2007..

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/6631/catvtb6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

This chart looks interesting and I'd become bull on a bust through the Double R...

http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/5179/medicalpractrc3.png (http://imageshack.us)

Gann squares confirms the double R @ 50% suggest awaiting bust before getting excited here…

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/3928/medicalpract1tg0.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Thus far during the month of December the S&P has managed to drop .15%… Choppy action their to say the least. Here is the performance the group scans thus far for month of December.

http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/9245/decsectoriike7.png (http://imageshack.us)



During the month of Dec the S&P500 climbed 1.55%. Here are the group results.

http://img122.imageshack.us/img122/2790/decgroupsfinlb8.png (http://imageshack.us)

Here is the Dec top group chart...

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/6519/insurancecz8.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Commodities have been taking a good butt kicking as of late. Here is SILVER. it is in trouble. Might be worth a play on the short side on a bounce..

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/3014/silverec1.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

List of groups that have outperformed the S&P500 every Jan since 2003

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/2351/jangrouplisthv6.png (http://imageshack.us)

First week of Jan the S&P was down .49%. Here the results…

http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/7668/janweek1ls9.png (http://imageshack.us)

[peanuts]

First week of Jan the S&P was down .49%. Here the results…

http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/7668/janweek1ls9.png (http://imageshack.us)

What do you think about WTS?

[Runner]

I show WTS is in the Industrial Equip & Components group. I like CRDN the most in that group right now.

[peanuts]

I show WTS is in the Industrial Equip & Components group. I like CRDN the most in that group right now.

OK, thanks, I agree.

What do you think about WLT?

[Runner]

OK, thanks, I agree.

What do you think about WLT?

Peanuts, WLT look good as it is in an up trend. That wide bar a few days ago has me concerned. I’m also just not that crazy about getting long at this time. I’ve noticed a lot of wide bars but not sure if this was due to the extended holidays. I personally would not open a position in WLT

[Runner]

Commodities have been taking a good butt kicking as of late. Here is SILVER. it is in trouble. Might be worth a play on the short side on a bounce..

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/3014/silverec1.png (http://imageshack.us)

A few stocks in the group

SSRI PASS SIL SLW

[Runner]

Steel has fallen out of a base and so for now my bias is bear for this group


http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/9950/steel3an8.png (http://imageshack.us)

[dmk112]

Runner, this is pretty much all commodities...the grizzlies came after them. oh boy

[Runner]

http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/677/mmry9.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/6307/mg528ey0.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I think tech is looking interesting. I'll wait on the P/B's as I'm not a break out trader. It also appears as if the Nasadaq is trying to regain leadership. I like the prospects of this chart and will look within the the groups for possible longs

http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/6752/mg810dv3.png (http://imageshack.us)

[peanuts]

over the last 2 weeks:

I am seeing continued strength in Financials and Healthcare

I am seeing new strength in Real Estate, Retail, and Basic Materials

I am seeing re-newed strength in Steel

I am seeing increasing weakness in Oil and Natural Gas, and Transportation (that's odd)

[Runner]

I hear you Peanuts. I’ve been bull in Healthcare and what I find interesting is thus far the tech heavy Nasdaq is the only one breaking out of the range. I still think follow through is key. I have not paid much attention to steel or oil. I’m going to put oil back on watch..

Take a look at small/mid caps and notice they have not yet cleared their ranges yet..

[Runner]

Group standings for Feb thus far the S&P is up a whooping .27%

http://img300.imageshack.us/img300/4724/jangrpdz0.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Here is Feb’s list of groups that have outperformed the S&P500 since 2003 for the month of Feb:

http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/1718/febgrouplistkb9.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Here are stocks from the groups posted turned back as “TRUE” as of close today.
I have all 326 stocks out of the entire Feb list that I will run through my scans
AN
AVY
BAX
BCR
BDX
BIG
BXP
CBG
CCL
CIEN
DG
DHI
DVN
GM
JWN
KG
KMB
MHS
NAV
NTAP
PDCO
PH
RAI
TGT
TIN

Groups showing most returns;;
(3) Med Instruments & Supplies
(3) Discount Variety Stores
(3) Paper & Paper Products
Have a good month!!

[Runner]

EOM of group list, During Jan the S&P increased 1.41%

http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/2875/eomjanjv9.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Here are stocks from the groups posted turned back as “TRUE” as of close today.
I have all 326 stocks out of the entire Feb list that I will run through my scans
AN
AVY
BAX
BCR
BDX
BIG
BXP
CBG
CCL
CIEN
DG
DHI
DVN
GM
JWN
KG
KMB
MHS
NAV
NTAP
PDCO
PH
RAI
TGT
TIN

Groups showing most returns;;
(3) Med Instruments & Supplies
(3) Discount Variety Stores
(3) Paper & Paper Products
Have a good month!!

Following stocks have dropped off scan
CIEN CBG PDCO DVN JWN BXP TIN EOP PH BDX

Current list
BIG
GM
MON
DHI
NTAP
BSX
CCL
BAX
KG
IP
TGT
PAI
PCL
BCR
AVY
AN
KMB

[Runner]

The Feb list has 326 stocks in all the groups. Here is a list with Jan’s percentage increases...
http://img250.imageshack.us/img250/8682/toppercentrk0.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Following stocks have dropped off scan
CIEN CBG PDCO DVN JWN BXP TIN EOP PH BDX

Current list
BIG
GM
MON
DHI
NTAP
BSX
CCL
BAX
KG
IP
TGT
PAI
PCL
BCR
AVY
AN
KMB

Look at that! The General made Runner's scan! GM is on the move.
Toyota has recalled 9.3 million cars since 2004--hey, that's 3 million per year.
http://autos.aol.com/article/safety/v2/_a/striving-for-perfection/20070126112809990001

[Runner]

Look at that! The General made Runner's scan! GM is on the move.
Toyota has recalled 9.3 million cars since 2004--hey, that's 3 million per year.
http://autos.aol.com/article/safety/v2/_a/striving-for-perfection/20070126112809990001

NB, that is funny. Anyway did you know I have a position in GM...hehe I have not been getting many returns with high volatility for a good while.

[Runner]

http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/9504/feb1stweekir0.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

group stocks

BIG GM JWN BSX NTAP EOP IP BAX KG BOL PCL SYK BCR AVY KMB

(5) MED INS & sUPPLIES
(3) PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS

[New-born baby]

NB, that is funny. Anyway did you know I have a position in GM...hehe I have not been getting many returns with high volatility for a good while.

Toyota quality is a myth.

Look at X, Mr. Runner. Look at X.

[Runner]

Toyota quality is a myth.

Look at X, Mr. Runner. Look at X.

NB, I can’t post the steel guys, as this would violate my group research. My small list of groups have outperformed the S&P every Feb since 2003. Not the most exciting groups but thus far this delta scan has proven successful over the past.

If your in X good job as it has been smoking crack as of late.

[peanuts]

This article may be a clue as to why Steel and Paper have been hot recently...

Steel sector gets trade action it sought on China

By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:04 PM ET Feb 2, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Heads of the nation's biggest steel companies heard their repeated calls for trade action on China answered Friday, with the U.S. saying it would file a complaint at the World Trade Organization over China's subsidies to its materials sector.
U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab said the Bush Administration's case would charge China with illegal export subsidies for factory goods including steel, wood and paper. See full story.
The filing is good news for the sector, said independent steel industry analyst Michelle Applebaum.
Flush inventories have been the biggest reason for the recent downturn in U.S. steel prices, she said, "and they got flush because of imports."
China tends to pay attention to trade cases, she said, though she cautioned, "these types of things start and don't always end."
The U.S. steel sector, joined by Luxembourg-based Arcelor Mittal, has complained for months that the Chinese steel industry has been flooding the U.S. market with cheap steel in violation of global trade laws restricting dumping -- or selling products at below cost -- and subsidization of its industries.
The industry's main lobbying group, the American Iron and Steel Institute, on Friday called the filing an "important first step" but also urged more enforcement of current duties on Chinese imports.
"The filing, while significant, only touches the tip of the iceberg of the full range of subsidies being provided to steel and other manufacturing industries in China," said Nancy Gravatt, spokeswoman for the AISI.
On Tuesday, Arcelor-Mittal executive Louis Schorsch had asked Congress and the White House to "focus on strategies that defend and enforce our trade laws," in light of what he called "surging steel imports." Schorsch, CEO of Arcelor-Mittal Steel's flat products-Americas division, also chairs the AISI.
Steel sector: Imports hurt Q4
Steel imports, estimated to have reached an all-time last year, contributed to a steel glut in the fourth quarter that weighed on prices and undercut earnings at U.S. steel producers. Imports had increased after a shortage of domestic supply, fueled by increased manufacturing demand, drove up prices earlier in the year.
Finished steel imports from China rose 133% last year, with the country providing the single-largest source of steel imports to the United States for six straight months, estimates the AISI.
And even as steel makers have forecast that leaner stockpiles will drive up demand and prices this quarter, they have said such a turnaround hinges on import levels.
"Whether a decline in North American service center inventory levels occurs in earnest depends on import levels, and more specifically, Chinese imports," said U.S. Steel CEO John Surma in an earnings conference call on Tuesday.
"We will have to wait and see if additional pressure on China, but only from the U.S. government but also from the European Union, will facilitate resolution of the Chinese over the production issue," he said.
U.S. Steel forecast better demand for its flagship flat-rolled steel product in the first quarter, echoing rosier outlooks from steel maker Nucor Corp.
Nucor, whose CEO Dan DiMicco has called China the "most serious abuser" in contributing to global overcapacity in the steel industry, said last week that a first quarter inventory rebound would "depend on a continued decrease in imports from the record levels of 2006."
And while imports are likely to be down this quarter, analyst Applebaum cited lingering worry that Chinese production will once again outpace demand, contributing to oversupply and price volatility.
Accusations about cheap Chinese imports hit a fever pitch last fall, as imports and inventories continued to rise at U.S. warehouses, sparking a reversal in steel prices.
But the industry was dealt a set-back in December when a federal trade agency voted to drop special tariffs on carbon steel flat products from four of six countries whose tariffs were under review, arguing that they are no longer needed to protect U.S. steel makers. See full story.
Although Chinese imports weren't a focus, the industry has said such tariffs were still needed to keep out unfair imports -- particularly from China.
Steel and paper companies' shares were little changed after Friday's announcement. Shares of most major U.S. steel producers held onto losses, keeping with a broad sell-off in the metals sector, with the exception of U.S. Steel. The largest U.S.-based steel company was last up nearly 1.7% after hitting a new high of $85.94 during the day

[Runner]

This article may be a clue as to why Steel and Paper have been hot recently...

Steel sector gets trade action it sought on China

By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:04 PM ET Feb 2, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Heads of the nation's biggest steel companies heard their repeated calls for trade action on China answered Friday, with the U.S. saying it would file a complaint at the World Trade Organization over China's subsidies to its materials sector.
U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab said the Bush Administration's case would charge China with illegal export subsidies for factory goods including steel, wood and paper. See full story.
The filing is good news for the sector, said independent steel industry analyst Michelle Applebaum.
Flush inventories have been the biggest reason for the recent downturn in U.S. steel prices, she said, "and they got flush because of imports."
China tends to pay attention to trade cases, she said, though she cautioned, "these types of things start and don't always end."
The U.S. steel sector, joined by Luxembourg-based Arcelor Mittal, has complained for months that the Chinese steel industry has been flooding the U.S. market with cheap steel in violation of global trade laws restricting dumping -- or selling products at below cost -- and subsidization of its industries.
The industry's main lobbying group, the American Iron and Steel Institute, on Friday called the filing an "important first step" but also urged more enforcement of current duties on Chinese imports.
"The filing, while significant, only touches the tip of the iceberg of the full range of subsidies being provided to steel and other manufacturing industries in China," said Nancy Gravatt, spokeswoman for the AISI.
On Tuesday, Arcelor-Mittal executive Louis Schorsch had asked Congress and the White House to "focus on strategies that defend and enforce our trade laws," in light of what he called "surging steel imports." Schorsch, CEO of Arcelor-Mittal Steel's flat products-Americas division, also chairs the AISI.
Steel sector: Imports hurt Q4
Steel imports, estimated to have reached an all-time last year, contributed to a steel glut in the fourth quarter that weighed on prices and undercut earnings at U.S. steel producers. Imports had increased after a shortage of domestic supply, fueled by increased manufacturing demand, drove up prices earlier in the year.
Finished steel imports from China rose 133% last year, with the country providing the single-largest source of steel imports to the United States for six straight months, estimates the AISI.
And even as steel makers have forecast that leaner stockpiles will drive up demand and prices this quarter, they have said such a turnaround hinges on import levels.
"Whether a decline in North American service center inventory levels occurs in earnest depends on import levels, and more specifically, Chinese imports," said U.S. Steel CEO John Surma in an earnings conference call on Tuesday.
"We will have to wait and see if additional pressure on China, but only from the U.S. government but also from the European Union, will facilitate resolution of the Chinese over the production issue," he said.
U.S. Steel forecast better demand for its flagship flat-rolled steel product in the first quarter, echoing rosier outlooks from steel maker Nucor Corp.
Nucor, whose CEO Dan DiMicco has called China the "most serious abuser" in contributing to global overcapacity in the steel industry, said last week that a first quarter inventory rebound would "depend on a continued decrease in imports from the record levels of 2006."
And while imports are likely to be down this quarter, analyst Applebaum cited lingering worry that Chinese production will once again outpace demand, contributing to oversupply and price volatility.
Accusations about cheap Chinese imports hit a fever pitch last fall, as imports and inventories continued to rise at U.S. warehouses, sparking a reversal in steel prices.
But the industry was dealt a set-back in December when a federal trade agency voted to drop special tariffs on carbon steel flat products from four of six countries whose tariffs were under review, arguing that they are no longer needed to protect U.S. steel makers. See full story.
Although Chinese imports weren't a focus, the industry has said such tariffs were still needed to keep out unfair imports -- particularly from China.
Steel and paper companies' shares were little changed after Friday's announcement. Shares of most major U.S. steel producers held onto losses, keeping with a broad sell-off in the metals sector, with the exception of U.S. Steel. The largest U.S.-based steel company was last up nearly 1.7% after hitting a new high of $85.94 during the day

Peanuts, maybe this is why IP has been on crack as of late...

[peanuts]

Peanuts, maybe this is why IP has been on crack as of late...

Runner, though I would seriously doubt that Steel has a significant effect on the Paper industry, and vice versa, I would also, at the same time, suggest that all basic commodities ride a common tide. Paper and Steel have seen common results, and dividing them is leading to folly.