View Full Version : Diogenes Decisions
mrmarket
07-23-2006, 09:47 PM
He mystifies and magnifies. He likes TA but also can pontificate on FA as well. Hear what Diogenes likes and dislikes, right here..right now....
diogenes
07-23-2006, 10:36 PM
Thanks-I wondered how the title would work out.
Anyway, currently looking over potential shorts from Cramer following this paper:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=870498
From the picks listed by billyjoe on the 20th that increased on last Friday and then looking at the stock scouter rating it looks like MTU and FUN might be the best to short
billyjoe
07-23-2006, 11:13 PM
diogenes,
I wonder if Cramer's disappearing returns can in any way be compared to the stocks first appearance in the IBD 100 ? I live near the headquarters of FUN and 2 of my kids work there. The fact that they are near a 52 week low and pay a div. of about 7.7% might not make them a good short. I'd have to agree with Cramer when he said "this ain't no six flags" (SIX)
---------------billyjoe
diogenes
07-24-2006, 11:32 AM
diogenes,
I wonder if Cramer's disappearing returns can in any way be compared to the stocks first appearance in the IBD 100 ? I live near the headquarters of FUN and 2 of my kids work there. The fact that they are near a 52 week low and pay a div. of about 7.7% might not make them a good short. I'd have to agree with Cramer when he said "this ain't no six flags" (SIX)
---------------billyjoe
The IBD connection would be interesting to look into.
Anybody know of any studies on the correlation between stock price and listing on the IBD 100?
Regarding FUN : I have no doubt that the if the company is a solid one in the long run it will be fine. It is just the short term period which seems a bit more capricious in judging stocks.
Lyehopper
07-24-2006, 12:56 PM
Diogenes, I'm glad to see you with your own thread. I'll be an avid reader.
btw.... What's the correct pronunciation of your handle?
Is it.... Di-au'-jen-eese?
diogenes
07-24-2006, 02:13 PM
Yes, that seems about right.
Of course if there are any sticklers for ancient greek out there, they would probably want a harsh “h” after the “au’” bit. However, who would really use that anyway?
For what it is worth my only open position at the moment is GW.
I have conflicting thoughts about this stock.
Since, it is a very small position relative to my small investment funds I have been letting it sit.
So, really the importance of being unimportant comes into play here.
Bought: More or less because I was really interested in the Fundamentals sometime last year, then poorman liked it, too.
I no longer follow the strategy that lead me to buy GW as it seemed best for a longer term holding than I am interested in.
diogenes
07-24-2006, 02:25 PM
Currently looking for a long position in either cg or orb (stolen from Park).
Looking at the correlation between the two and the 10 year t-bill shows a strong correlation between cg at .969 and not so strong on orb at .4928.
While correlation does not imply causation it is still something to think about.
Any thoughts on the two?
diogenes
07-24-2006, 10:37 PM
Okay, finally spent some time to find the MAE and MAXFE of 30 Mr. Market trades using yahoo data. I think that this data introduced some noise into the formulas, e.g., RIO seemed off.
Time interval: day that Mr. M bought the stock up to and including when he sold.
This is what I found:
Avg %:
MAE = -16.676%
Maxfe=31.4327%
Median%:
MAE=-14.5755%
MAXFE=19.5271%
Idea:
I think it might be worthwhile to look into what happens if one waited for a Mr. Market pick to fall via the median % of 14.5755 and then entered the trade.
Tickers used:
ARLP
asca
bmhc
cfc
chke
cib
cme
cmn
cmtl
deck
dhi
dw
flir
ggb
ggi
hans
har
holx
ptsi
hzo
ipar
mcri
pdx
qsii
rio
safm
snhy
spf
urbn
wire
wsb
diogenes
07-26-2006, 10:48 AM
Went long ORB yesterday at $18.11.
It was ranked higher than CG in my scan.
Scan outline (in general):
http://www.aetheling.com/MI/index.html
Stocks are culled from:
1. Mechanical Investing scan (from Valueline)
2. Mr. Market top 5
3. Picks posted by others (which are then looked into a bit more if they happen to come out on top during a scan).
Add. Info:
1. Look into possible correlations between a stock and:
1a. QQQQ
1b. Dia
1c. 10 year t-bill
Holding Period:
Approx. 3 weeks, or until stop is hit.
ParkTwain
07-26-2006, 09:58 PM
How would ORB look against something like LNT or AEPI or OCN, each of which has recovered from a previous deep dip not that long ago. Though OCN is now at a point of having a high "ceiling" of resistance way up in the high 20s (it's presently at 13.62).
Or as opposed to BAC which is now making new all-time highs? Or even something like EXC, which has had only one or two really bad (% loss wise) years out the last 20!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=exc
(At least you already admitted that you stole ORB out of one of my posts.)
diogenes
07-28-2006, 09:48 PM
N.B.: This is using data up to and including 7/28/2006.
Looking for a 3-4 week holding has AEPI at number one above ORB (number two) and the rest. It has a very nice and linear march upwards.
MSN Rating of 10 (I like a rating at least 8 ).
(Nothing on Value Line).
So, using the ranking method puts AEPI first on the consideration list, but the correlations mentioned above would have to be looked into before buying.
This is done in order to see what type of movement in stock price might occur over the holding period with respect to certain markets, e.g., qqqq.
Edit:
Stop would be based on volatility and time (one month).
diogenes
08-01-2006, 01:48 PM
Current interesting stocks according to running three Value Line Screens (Peg-nt, Exponential Growth, and GARCFS):
ISSX
KEA
ILMN
The screens are then ranked by price over 21 days with one year of volatility and, e.g., the highest ranking stocks are listed above.
See the page linked below for more information on the screens and a general idea about mechanical investing:
http://www.wikifaq.com/Motley_Fool_Mechanical_Investing_Board_-_Part_II
diogenes
08-26-2006, 11:16 AM
The below is a link to an excerpt/link review of impact of the Fed and equity prices.
My understanding has been that news generally means very little, but perhaps the Fed is the outlier in this respect. However, since the paper focuses on Greenspan how much of a role did the internet/computer expansion play, if any?
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/08/talk_is_cheap_b.html
The below is a link to an excerpt/link review of impact of the Fed and equity prices.
My understanding has been that news generally means very little, but perhaps the Fed is the outlier in this respect. However, since the paper focuses on Greenspan how much of a role did the internet/computer expansion play, if any?
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/08/talk_is_cheap_b.html
That's a very interesting site Dio...I was reading about Min. Wage. In CA it is now $6.75hr. It will go to $7.50 on 1/1/07 and $8.00 1/1/08. Unfortunately, I believe that only hurts lower income workers and those on a fixed income as companies will raise prices to more than compensate for the additional labor costs....I don't know about anyone else...But I'm not planning on receiving an 11% raise in January...thx...Doug(IIC)
diogenes
08-26-2006, 11:54 AM
That's a very interesting site Dio...I was reading about Min. Wage. In CA it is now $6.75hr. It will go to $7.50 on 1/1/07 and $8.00 1/1/08. Unfortunately, I believe that only hurts lower income workers and those on a fixed income as companies will raise prices to more than compensate for the additional labor costs....I don't know about anyone else...But I'm not planning on receiving an 11% raise in January...thx...Doug(IIC)
It should be noted that I think that min wage increase does not need to be a bad thing.
However, here is a response between a neo-classical (i.e. min wage= bad, always) to a paper that argues things from a different view:
http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2006/08/a_few_questions.html
diogenes
08-26-2006, 11:58 AM
Went long ORB yesterday at $18.11.
Holding Period:
Approx. 3 weeks, or until stop is hit.
Stopped out of ORB sometime ago; thus taking a loss.
Edit:
Two interesting looking stocks:
KAI
IWOV
diogenes
09-04-2006, 01:47 PM
Two interesting stocks:
Name-Stock Scouter Rating
SMP-7
AVT-8
Valueline- Timeliness was so-so on each of the stocks. However, the growth potential for each looks good.
I am putting off running correlation tests as the idea demands a bit more time to flesh out.
ParkTwain
09-05-2006, 09:20 AM
That's a very interesting site Dio...I was reading about Min. Wage. In CA it is now $6.75hr. It will go to $7.50 on 1/1/07 and $8.00 1/1/08. Unfortunately, I believe that only hurts lower income workers and those on a fixed income as companies will raise prices to more than compensate for the additional labor costs....I don't know about anyone else...But I'm not planning on receiving an 11% raise in January...thx...Doug(IIC)
You've got to be kidding about your concern, you're talking about the land of the undocumented worker for 150+ years. I argue to friends that Calif's wealth to a great extent has been based on the historic availability of below-market labor.
diogenes
09-09-2006, 09:05 PM
So another week has gone by. So we have some data to look at.
My ranking scheme uses past volatility from yahoo.
Now, I have been using a period of around one month, which seems to be fine for a week hold.
However, why not use one week's volatility to see how it works over a week?
So, using a week's volatility as a guide we get the following two:
PCCC
SMP
And a month's volatility gives us:
SMP
BDC.
diogenes
09-11-2006, 02:29 PM
Household saving at the current level… might be enough?
An abstract from this paper: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~scholz/Research/Optimality.pdf
“We solve each household's optimal saving decisions using a life cycle model that incorporates uncertain lifetimes, uninsurable earning and medical expenses, progressive taxation, government transfers, and pension and social security benefits. With optimal decision rules, we compare, household by household, wealth predictions from the life cycle model using a nationally representative sample. We find, making use of household-specific earnings histories, that the model accounts for more than 80 percent of the 1992 cross-sectional variation in wealth. Fewer than 20 percent of households have less wealth than their optimal targets, and the wealth deficit of those who are undersaving is generally small.”
Linked on Marginal Revolution 9/10/06
diogenes
09-16-2006, 08:26 PM
Some picks looking back over the past week:
RFMD
PCCC
HD
Of course the month look back still likes SMP.
You've got to be kidding about your concern, you're talking about the land of the undocumented worker for 150+ years. I argue to friends that Calif's wealth to a great extent has been based on the historic availability of below-market labor.
Strange that you would say that Park...Although as I recall you are from the East Coast...But Las Vegas is the "Land of Screwing Over The Low Wage Worker"
Lyehopper
09-17-2006, 08:55 AM
Strange that you would say that Park...Although as I recall you are from the East Coast...But Las Vegas is the "Land of Screwing Over The Low Wage Worker"
That's why I love purchasing Automated Machinery. You never have to "screw over low wage workers" again.... Come to think of it, CNC machinery has allowed me to cease "screwing over" some pretty highly paid workers too.... http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
diogenes
09-17-2006, 12:52 PM
From: Energy Economist: Petroleum Report - September 14, 2006
"Petroleum Report
If you were writing headlines this week they would start with "falling Prices" and be followed by something like this:
* Refineries back to normal operation
* Gasoline shortage in switch to ethanol fails to materialize
* Iranian oil interruption highly unlikely
* Petroleum stocks well above normal
None of the above could be considered anything but bearish and all of them are true. Actually, they have been true for months, but the market is finally realizing that is the case. Perception drives the market.
It is typical for refinery utilization to drop in September or October for Fall maintenance. Refiners often use the lower demand periods of Fall and early Spring to minimize the stocks they need to maintain supply to the end users while the plants are down. This year could see fewer refiners doing major maintenance because many Gulf refiners did extensive repair following the hurricanes, others had to reconfigure their refineries to produce the RBOB for blending with ethanol and the lower sulfur diesel. If this happens it could result in even lower margins for refiners.
For the next few months the year-over-year comparisons and even comparisons to the five year averages will tend to overstate the this year's activity. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 resulted in much lower than normal levels of refinery utilization. When looking at the data it might be better to emphasize stocks relative to the high end of the five year range."
Strange that you would say that Park...Although as I recall you are from the East Coast...But Las Vegas is the "Land of Screwing Over The Low Wage Worker"
I just looked at Salary.com...The median base pay for a blackjack dealer in Las Vegas is $14,294yr...$6.85hr...w/ bonuses it says $29,767...seems like a pretty hard job for that kinda dough to me.
Seems like a trade off in Nevada...Don't pay the majority much of anything and we won't make them pay State taxes. Although I'd imagine that a lot of workers end up giving much of their income back to the casinos anyway after hours.
Even Casino Host's median is only $47,000...although I'd imagine Dave's is up in the 99th percentile ;)
eliaskane
09-17-2006, 10:36 PM
Some picks looking back over the past week:
RFMD
PCCC
HD
PCCC is up more than 35% in one month, still going strong and near its high from the beginning of 2005. (My entry was $7.14). Any guesses on how much higher it's headed? Resistance around $12-13?
diogenes
09-18-2006, 01:24 PM
PCCC is up more than 35% in one month, still going strong and near its high from the beginning of 2005. (My entry was $7.14). Any guesses on how much higher it's headed? Resistance around $12-13?
Wow, nice gain for you.
I do not consider resistance etc, so maybe one of the t.a. focused fellows have something to say about resistance etc?
diogenes
09-23-2006, 06:53 PM
A couple of picks looking back over the week:
BEAS
AEOS
Over a month:
IIVI
Edit: This is not my normal scan.
ParkTwain
09-23-2006, 10:52 PM
There are many low-wage jobs in Vegas, to be sure. And there is a surplus of cheap labor to be found here. But plenty of hotel and casino jobs, those that are "customer facing" and driven by tips, are fought over and actually have waiting lists (valet at the Mirage). See this article about the recent controversy at the Wynn resort, where blackjack dealers can make $100k per year from all the tips. The company is now requiring that the dealers "share" 20% with their supervisors. The casinos don't understand that there are plenty of enterprises in other cities where the managers make less than those they supervise.
http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2006/Sep-22-Fri-2006/business/9802481.html
This controversy is another sign that the consolidation of the casino business along the Strip is having ever more consequences. Imagine being a toilet paper sales rep trying to sell into the MGM Mirage corporation? They control about 40% of the rooms on the Strip. How many palms get greased to get that account?
When I first visited Vegas, I was impressed at how hard most of the hospitality-related workers are working. Just like what you find in Manhattan.
ParkTwain
09-23-2006, 10:57 PM
This has historically been an iffy PC direct seller that was for a long time based in southern New Hampshire, though probably most of their operations happen elsewhere. That is not a great (i.e., high profit margin) business anymore. I think I read this month that they had acquired a particular firm that seems to have juice selling into large corporate accounts. But that "juice" can only go so far and so long given the nature of the business. I watched that chart develop, but I don't trust it given the underlying business. There is obviously something more to the story that I don't know about, or maybe the market thinks it knows something and is about to get its head handed to it.
Here is the article that I had read:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060727/20060727005235.html
They had acquired Amherst Technologies in October 2005, which has since juiced up their sales. But, I mean, they're a freaking PC wholesaler!
diogenes
09-24-2006, 12:28 PM
Ok, now back to my normal weekly scan:
BDC
TWX
HVT
PCCC
XRX
RFMD
diogenes
09-24-2006, 12:31 PM
This has historically been an iffy PC direct seller that was for a long time based in southern New Hampshire, though probably most of their operations happen elsewhere. That is not a great (i.e., high profit margin) business anymore. I think I read this month that they had acquired a particular firm that seems to have juice selling into large corporate accounts. But that "juice" can only go so far and so long given the nature of the business. I watched that chart develop, but I don't trust it given the underlying business. There is obviously something more to the story that I don't know about, or maybe the market thinks it knows something and is about to get its head handed to it.
(snip)
What I gather from Value Line and MarketGrader.com is that PCCC has some growth potential in the short term (more so VL on this part) and is taking in some Government Contracts.
diogenes
10-01-2006, 12:50 PM
Short term screen says:
OTEX
TNB
AVX
Longer term screen says:
PCCC
MS
TWX.
Anyone have any interesting ideas about fx markets?
Short term screen says:
OTEX
TNB
AVX
Longer term screen says:
PCCC
MS
TWX.
Anyone have any interesting ideas about fx markets?
Like that OTEX dio...would be nice to see a power move through 18 and a gap fill...Doug(IIC)
Anyone have any interesting ideas about fx markets?
Not really...But I heard about this FWIW...
http://fxmarketspace.com/
diogenes
10-02-2006, 05:21 PM
I hope OTEX works out for you (as it would then work out for me, too).
As for the link, I am currently using Dealbook 360’s platform etc and at the moment long GBP/SEK…and this is outrageous and sadly kinda fun.
I hope OTEX works out for you (as it would then work out for me, too).
As for the link, I am currently using Dealbook 360’s platform etc and at the moment long GBP/SEK…and this is outrageous and sadly kinda fun.
I lost .19 on OTEX...but I'm still keeping it on watch and may buy again soon...thx...Doug
diogenes
10-05-2006, 12:51 PM
I lost .19 on OTEX...but I'm still keeping it on watch and may buy again soon...thx...Doug
Not what I wanted to read, but I am sure you will make it up.
;)
diogenes
10-08-2006, 01:48 PM
A few picks for this week (actually more than expected) :
CY
GLYT
SR
TWX
RFMD
for a month:
TWB, CY,OTEX
From don's funds newsletter (free):
For more "Wall of Worry", I have included John Mauldin's latest newsletter "The Inflation of Expectations". We all know that the markets current rally is caused to some degree by the perception that the next move by the Fed will be to cut rates. John has something to say about that below:
" So why do we care about all the Fed speeches mentioned at the top of the letter? Because they are telling us that they will not cut rates if inflation does not come back into their comfort zone, EVEN IF UNEMPLOYMENT RISES".
"Those market participants looking for the Fed to come to the rescue in January or March are likely to be disappointed. Unless inflation slows more and faster than it looks like it will today, the Fed is on hold for some time, even as unemployment looks set to rise. Interestingly, because of the upward revisions, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, the lowest rate".
"This just doesn't have the feel of Goldilocks to me".
For the complete 10/06/06 newsletter by John Mauldin's Frontline Thoughts:
http://www.donsfunds.com/files/Mauldin_Inflation_of_Expectations100606.pdf
From Jason Kelly's website (http://www.jasonkelly.com/) weekly update:
The September employment report left the labor market looking fine and the odds of another interest rate hike low. However, strength in wages and salaries means that the odds of a rate cut are also low.
Econoday reported that "economic growth appears to be on a moderately healthy trend but it likely is going to be the middle to latter part of 2007 before interest rates might come down."
Jason Kelly is the author of “The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing,” which is a nice introduction to Fundamental Investing.
It should also be noted that he has a pdf sheet on his website for download that is a nice way to organize various stock picks.
Not what I wanted to read, but I am sure you will make it up.
;)
Win some...Lose some...That's the way it goes...As long as I make more on the winners than I lose on the losers...I'm OK...Best, Doug
ParkTwain
10-08-2006, 04:05 PM
OTEX's 3-year chart is replete with big gaps (I can see 10 by barely looking; only 2 of the 10 are gaps up). Very volatile stock on an intermediate basis.
OTEX trin' to fill the gap
diogenes
10-15-2006, 11:44 AM
Short term:
NEWP
OMG
TNB
BW
And for a bit more time:
OMG
OTEX
TNB.
Just a thought:
FX markets appear to behave, in the short term, in vary narrow ways.
So far, with a play account, it has been interesting.
Here is a website with some nice fx data:
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/
diogenes
10-23-2006, 10:54 AM
For this week:
TWX
AEP
CP
SR
For a few weeks:
IFS
NEWP
AEP
AVT
MS
diogenes
10-28-2006, 12:37 PM
List- Short Term:
Ticker-Implied Volatility [over 10 days]
KBALB-.21
CP-.24
BW-.32
SMP-.25
TWX-.088
Def: Implied Volatility at http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/iv.asp
Edit: Correlation for the above tickers with DIA over 1 year:
0.8365
0.6961
0.8670
0.5815
0.3310
See the below link for more info:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation
diogenes
10-28-2006, 12:38 PM
Just a thought:
FX markets appear to behave, in the short term, in vary narrow ways.
Mean-reverting seems to be the case here.
diogenes
11-05-2006, 12:16 PM
This week:
HAS 0.215
AVT 0.476
AL 0.347
For a month:
KBALB 0.266
HAS 0.311
CP 0.243
TWX 0.107
AL 0.317
SQA-A 0.235
diogenes
11-13-2006, 12:07 AM
Interesting paper, oddly enough free:
Commonality in the Determinants of Expected Stock Returns
-- Abstract --
"Evidence is presented that the determinants of the cross-section of expected stock returns are stable in their identity and influence from period to period and from country to country. The determinants are related to risk, liquidity, price-level, growth potential, and stock price history. Out-of-sample predictions of expected return, using moving average values for the payoffs to these firm characteristics, are strongly and consistently accurate. Two findings, however, distinguish this paper from others in the contemporary literature. First, the stocks with higher expected and realized rates of return are unambiguously of lower risk than the stocks with lower returns. Second, we find that the important determinants of expected stock returns are strikingly common to the major equity markets of the world. Given the nature of the tests, it is highly unlikely that these results may be attributed to bias or data snooping. Consequently, the results seem to reveal a major failure in the Efficient Markets Hypothesis."
http://www.quantitativeinvestment.com/research/common/commonal.html
N.B.
this is my addition.
diogenes
11-13-2006, 12:24 AM
Looks to have some interesting data, but I have not checked into it yet:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/index.html
This week:
Tkr: Vol:
IFS 0.339
OTEX 0.279
AW 0.379
TSG 0.125
MENT 0.257
HAS 0.179
diogenes
11-27-2006, 02:14 PM
It looks like Tharp has a new edition of “Trade your way to financial freedom” on the way. I think that it might be of interest.
Anyway VIX is a bit interesting at the moment.
http://www.iitm.com/Trade-Your-Way-to-Financial-Freedom.htm
diogenes
12-24-2006, 02:31 PM
Below is a link to a somewhat outdated study on S.U.E. (standardized unexpected earnings). Essentially, it seems that stocks that have “good news” on the way have a tendency to drift upwards prior to the actual release of the news and continue drifting up after the announced “good news.” Also, the converse appears to hold for stocks with “bad news.”
http://www.westga.edu/~bquest/2004/surprises.htm
Edit:
From http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~mbrandt/papers/working/ear.pdf
A trading strategy taking long positions in good-news stocks and
short positions in bad-news stocks produces an annual abnormal return of 6.3%.
N.B. This is a working paper and I have not read the entire paper, yet.
diogenes
01-16-2007, 12:27 AM
Neat website with a lot of neat info:
http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html
diogenes
02-07-2007, 04:33 PM
Various stocks that have caught my attention:
MKL
IW
ULGX
diogenes
03-04-2007, 03:33 PM
Basic postions:
Options:
Put DIA
Call GM (This for a year)
Eq:
Long PSPT
LONG MKL
Coming soon:
Long
IW, ALAN,AFT
Picks come from across models to reduce risk.
Basic postions:
Options:
Put DIA
Call GM (This for a year)
Eq:
Long PSPT
LONG MKL
Coming soon:
Long
IW, ALAN,AFT
Picks come from across models to reduce risk.
Wish you would post your thots more often...Doug
diogenes
03-06-2007, 07:52 PM
Wish you would post your thoughts more often...Doug
I will try to keep that in mind. ;)
Websman
03-06-2007, 08:50 PM
Wish you would post your thots more often...Doug
wish you could spell...sheesh. jejejeje :eek:
diogenes
03-06-2007, 09:57 PM
Interesting read about the move, last week, here:
http://www.jasonkelly.com/index.html
wish you could spell...sheesh. jejejeje :eek:
I like shortcuts
Websman
03-07-2007, 05:22 PM
I like shortcuts
Good point....
diogenes
03-19-2007, 09:45 PM
A few picks for a couple of weeks
WNR
BIG
TSO
HOC
MIR
Now, for a bit of option fun.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straddle
However, I must admit to be somewhat interested in how the pricing works out in incomplete markets and if option types impact the straddle.
That said, the straddle is a way to take advantage of a potential big move in the underlying.
A few picks for a couple of weeks
WNR
BIG
TSO
HOC
MIR
Now, for a bit of option fun.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straddle
However, I must admit to be somewhat interested in how the pricing works out in incomplete markets and if option types impact the straddle.
That said, the straddle is a way to take advantage of a potential big move in the underlying.
Take the long straddle or strangle...I've always found that very interesting and even made some bux doing that back over 15 yrs ago...But you can lose it all if the stock doesn't move.
diogenes
03-19-2007, 10:47 PM
Take the long straddle or strangle...I've always found that very interesting and even made some bux doing that back over 15 yrs ago...But you can lose it all if the stock doesn't move.
Well, yes; hence, the neat payoff diagram. :cramersmiley:
I should add the sensitivity to the greeks here will determine what a big move is.
diogenes
04-21-2007, 02:57 PM
Well, I have been somewhat low key in trading as a result having to pay for what I consider to be the worst broker: Zecco:
Let me count the ways:
1. Lost withholding papers twice
2. Margin account did not appear till about a month ago; yet it was set-up many months ago
3. Imaginary positions appeared in my account that really made it hard to trade around, .e.g, I closed out one position, but then it went long by twice the original amount, then changed to short the next day…
4. Account amounts turned up by a factor of four after hours for no reason
5. Account amounts turned negative after five by a factor of ¼
6. Margin Calls for positions that I did not have
7. Withholdings still…
This broker is not Huge.
skiracer
04-21-2007, 03:06 PM
[quote=diogenes;80786]Well, I have been somewhat low key in trading as a result having to pay for what I consider to be the worst broker: Zecco:
Let me count the ways:
1. Lost withholding papers twice
2. Margin account did not appear till about a month ago; yet it was set-up many months ago
3. Imaginary positions appeared in my account that really made it hard to trade around, .e.g, I closed out one position, but then it went long by twice the original amount, then changed to short the next day…
4. Account amounts turned up by a factor of four after hours for no reason
5. Account amounts turned negative after five by a factor of ¼
6. Margin Calls for positions that I did not have
7. Withholdings still…
And you still have an account with them after all of that?
diogenes
04-21-2007, 06:23 PM
Well, yes in the sense that I think there are withholdings that I need to get back (this is going slowly).
Yet, no in this sense that I have any positions with them that have not been closed out or in the process of being moved.
skiracer
04-21-2007, 08:04 PM
Well, yes in the sense that I think there are withholdings that I need to get back (this is going slowly).
Yet, no in this sense that I have any positions with them that have not been closed out or in the process of being moved.
I would report them to the SEC or whatever governing board takes care of that and get away from them as quickly as I could. There should never be any mistakes.
diogenes
04-22-2007, 10:33 PM
I would report them to the SEC or whatever governing board takes care of that and get away from them as quickly as I could. There should never be any mistakes.
Oh yes, no issue with that at all.
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