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View Full Version : AXR ==> The Independence Day Winner!



mrmarket
07-06-2006, 04:08 PM
Remember back in the 1960ís when you saw some guy sitting in your kitchen talking to your parents about this great investment opportunity that couldnít go wrong? For $10.00 down and $10.00/month, they could own this great property somewhere that they could one day sell for millions?

Perhaps the property looked something like this:

http://www.newmexico.org/MEDIA/IMAGES/691-Rio%20Rancho.jpg

Or maybe like this:

http://www.laurenherman.com/assets/images/View-from-driveway.jpg

Either way, that guy in the checkered suit wasnít all wrong. Sure, the property your parents bought was probably deemed worthless about 20 years after they bought it. As for that nice salesman? Like Ken Lay, heís probably dead by now. However, what that salesman, your parents, and the early internet investors had in common was that they had the right idea, but they were just a little ahead of their time.

Take for example the city of Rio Rancho, New Mexico. It was founded in the 1960ís on land purchased for pennies an acre back in the late 1800ís. What your parents didnít know is that the city of Rio Rancho is actually located only a few miles from the enormously popular and ever expanding largest city in New Mexico => Albuquerque. Now that Albuquerque is busting at the seams, the most sensible place for people to live has become the city of Rio Rancho.

I bought AXR (AMREP Corporation) today at 49.80. I will sell it in 4 Ė 6 weeks at 57.45. Hereís why I like AXR:

AXRís stock is up 90% over the last 12 months yet its PE is only 16. Look at this chart:

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/a/axr

AMREP Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate, fulfillment services, and newsstand distribution businesses. It develops both residential lots and sites for commercial and industrial use, as well as secures entitlements for development tracts for sale to homebuilders. As of April 30, 2005, the company owned approximately 19,550 acres of land in Rio Rancho, 55,000 square foot of office building, and a 30,000 square foot commercial rental property in Rio Rancho, as well as 2 tracts of land properties located in Colorado. Its fulfillment services include magazine subscription fulfillment services, lettershop and graphics arts services, customer telephone support, list services, and product fulfillment services. The magazine subscription fulfillment services comprise processing new orders, receiving payments, preparing and mailing renewal and statement notifications, maintaining subscriber lists and databases, processing Internet orders, and printing forms and promotional materials. The list services comprise maintaining client customer lists, merging rented lists with a client's list, and sorting and sequencing mailing labels. The company receives, warehouses, processes, and ships merchandise as part of its product fulfillment services. AMREP distributes automotive, men's sophisticates, comics, puzzle, romance, and sports magazines for publishers.

Now Iím not going to spend a lot of time discussing the magazine subscription fulfillment services business, called Kable Media Services. I really canít trust a business that doesnít know how to spell ďcableĒ. I love cable. I love clicker. I love football. I love beer.

Having said that, this part of the business actually pulled in almost one half of AXRís net income last year and Kable is now the second largest subscription fulfillment company in the United States. What is fulfillment? Itís not eating all the chips you want and washing it down with the coldest beer on the planet. Magazine fulfillment is the process of getting an order into the hands of a consumer. It involves employees taking an order by telephone, through the mail or over the Internet. Kable employees then sort and scan the mail, process the order, create the bill or renewal notice and provide customer service support. Finally, a mailing label is created and the item is sent to the customer. Kableís business represented about $100 million of the $135 million of AXRís annual revenue. I would expect demographic growth will continue to drive revenue growth for Kable. There will also be some increase in earnings velocity attributable to web design services most recently being offered by Kable. Having access to customer addresses, emails, and phone numbers via the magazine fulfillment service should dovetail well with future internet offerings.

But magazines and fulfillment isnít what makes AMREPís stock so exciting to me. No, what I like about AMREP is that this company effectively IS the city of Rio Rancho. The city of Rio Rancho is 65,000 acres of which 20,000 acres is owned by AMREP. Thatís right, AXR owns 1/3 of the land of this small city which is in the embryonic stages of hyper growth.

Consider:
ē Existing population of Rio Rancho is 74,000 people. Median age is 35 yrs old. 4 year growth rate has been 18.5%. Estimated 2010 population is 125,000.
ē Rio Rancho has a top rated school system. Go to Myspace.com and search on all of the kids from Rio Rancho. For the most part they seem to be very bright, interesting and admirable youths. Test scores are well above national/state norms. A 2nd High School is scheduled to be completed in 2009. The University of New Mexico West and New Mexico Highlands University are within the city limits.
ē Rio Rancho is in the Northwest quadrant of the Albuquerque Metropolitan area. The only reasonable place left for Albuquerque to grow is West and Northwest.
ē In Money Magazineís Americaís Best Places to Live, Rio Rancho scored #83 of 1,321 places studied and received the highest scores on jobs/economy and arts/leisure.
ē Home sale prices are rising. Record setting home construction continues.
ē Rio Rancho offers a variety of recreational activities including golfing, swimming, and ice skating, with multiple parks and playgrounds. A new 47 million dollar, 6,500 fixed seat event center will open in October 2006. Rio Rancho will be getting a minor league ice hockey team to play there.
ē Plans for a new City Centre downtown area, destined to become New Mexicoís premier commercial/retail/dining and entertainment venue, are underway. A new 60,000 sq ft City Hall building is planned for opening in June 2007.
ē 1,720 building permits were issued in 2004, vs. 1,224 permits in 2003. Plans for redevelopment projects under way in Rio Rancho call for mixing high-density residential with commercial, retail and public uses such as schools, community centers, parks, open space and trails.
ē Only about 25 percent of Rio Rancho's 103 square miles is developed or under development. There is room to grow bigÖreally big.
Rio Rancho's population is growing so fast you can almost see it happening.

"We're getting 25 new people a day, 365 days a year," a resident said. "They're building 275 to 280 new homes a month here."

''There used to be lots of coyotes when we first came out,'' said Fred Schueler, a retired commercial artist from Ohio who moved here with his wife in 1979. ''But now houses are springing up all over, and the development has chased them away. We still like it out here a lot, but I'm glad that we bought when we did.''

Big deal, another southwest America growth story? It wouldnít mean anything to me unless you remember again that AMREP is sitting on 30% of the land for this expansion. In 2005, AXR completed a large sale of commercial property for the site of a Wal-Mart store. If you donít think Wal-Mart knows what they are doing before they go into a town, you are smoking crack. Have you ever seen a Wal-Mart store close down? This is right on the heels of a 2004 sale of property at the Northern tip of Rio Rancho to none other than Home Depot (the first one in Rio Rancho). These mega retailers donít build boxes unless they see growth potential.

Also in 2005 AMREP built a spec 30,000 foot property for its own account which they will be leasing out. Chances are they will grow this end of their business as well.

Ok $$$MR. MARKET$$$, youíve pitched the growth story. Why is this stock worth more than $49.80/share?

Start with earningsÖearningsÖearnings. In June, AXR reported net income of $10,389,000, or $1.56 per share, for its fiscal year 2006 fourth quarter ended April 30, 2006 compared to net income of $4,743,000, or $0.72 per share, in the same period of fiscal 2005. Fourth quarter 2006 revenues were $47,846,000 versus $36,152,000 in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005.

For all of fiscal 2006, the Company reported net income of $26,050,000, or $3.93 per share, compared to net income of $15,525,000, or $2.35 per share, in fiscal 2005. The 2006 results consisted of net income from continuing operations of $22,494,000, or $3.39 per share, and net income from discontinued operations of $3,556,000, or $0.54 per share, versus net income from continuing operations of $15,588,000, or $2.36 per share, and a net loss from discontinued operations of $63,000, or $0.01 per share, in the prior year. Fiscal 2006 revenues were $148,296,000 compared to $134,506,000 in fiscal 2005. The Company's fourth quarter and full year 2006 net income and earnings per share were all records for any quarterly or annual period.

While the earnings are pretty impressive, the real story is in the balance sheet. Itís pretty simple. A call to several Rio Rancho realtors revealed that the average Rio Rancho undeveloped acre was going for $30,000. If you take AMREPís 20,000 acres and multiply it by $30,000 per acre, you get $600,000,000. If you divide this by the 6.6 MM shares outstanding, you get a share price of $91, just for the land value alone. The $91 figure doesnít even include the Kable business or the fact that land prices will most certainly be appreciating in Rio Rancho.

I donít know how AXR is valuing their land holdings, but it isnít at market prices, thatís for sure. I was going to call the CFO and ask him, but I was too lazy. The rest of the balance sheet is in great shape. AXR has no long term debt and their current assets exceed current liabilities.

On December 7, 2005, the Company's Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend of $3.50 per common share payable on January 9, 2006 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 19, 2005. The Board indicated that the Company's financial condition, substantial cash position and anticipated cash flow, particularly from its real estate operations, in relation to its current capital requirements were major factors in its determination to reward shareholders with this special cash dividend, which follows a special dividend of $0.55 declared on July 13, 2005, and other special dividends of $0.40 and $0.25 per share that were declared following the close of AMREP's fiscal years ending April 30, 2004 and 2003. The Company said that the Board may consider special dividends from time-to-time in the future in light of conditions then existing, including earnings, financial condition, cash position, and capital requirements and other needs.

The $3.50 payout is about a 7% dividendÖnot too shabby at all. This ainít Halloween candy they are handing out. This extra cash is coming from land sales. I expect more, and bigger, in the future. With 20,000 acres, they wonít be running out of land to sell really soon.

Remember the Pink Floyd album, ďThe WallĒ? We donít need no education. Jim Wall is the man who put the "vision" in the City of Vision. The chairman, president and CEO of AMREP, Wall came to Rio Rancho in 1968. "We started with the bare ground," he recalled, and started building inexpensive houses for retirees from the East Coast and a handful of younger people from Albuquerque looking for affordable housing. But even then, Wall had his eye on the future.

"We realized early on that to be anything more than a bedroom community to Albuquerque, we had to establish our own economic job base," he said. The businesses providing those jobs derive revenue from selling a product or service outside the city in which they are located, and collect new dollars to infuse into the local economy. Those jobs, in turn, foster retail businesses and other services.

"Everyone is concerned about the problems that go along with development," Wall observed. "But those are the good problems to deal with. A shrinking population, a shrinking tax base, those are the hard things to deal with."
The economic development torch has been passed to the Rio Rancho Economic Development Corporation. AMREP Southwest has returned to its roots selling land and no longer builds homes. "The time has now come for other builders to come and take their roles building the city," Wall said. "But we will always be the master developer." The city now is the fourth largest in the state, Wall noted, and predicted to be the second largest by 2020.

"We've called ourselves the City of Vision and obviously, our vision focuses on the future," he said. "I always look forward and I see us on the brink of developing into a major city."

My vision is the kah-ching Iím going to get when I see this stock hit my target. I donít need no stinking coyotes or roadrunners or Home Depots. Just give me cash. I am HUGE!

Tell me what you think of this pick..and this write up.

$$$MR. MARKET$$$

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com

lemonjello
07-06-2006, 04:12 PM
Nice write up!

peanuts
07-06-2006, 04:15 PM
great write-up

the upsidedown squiggly is a sure bet... ~

mrmarket
07-06-2006, 04:34 PM
AXR has been in 10 previous MM data dumps AND was in IIC's watchlist!

lemonjello
07-06-2006, 04:58 PM
Some guy on the Yahoo board says it will be going on the IBD list soon with an 99 EPS rank and a 98 RS rank, but the low volume kept it off.

If that's the case it would definitely help achieve 15% muy pronto.

I wonder where someone would put a stop on AXR?

jiesen
07-06-2006, 05:19 PM
fantastic writeup, $$MM! I'm going to check into this pick tonight, and if I like it as much as you do, I'll be buying some tomorrow with my PTSI proceeds.

You are HUGE!!!

Lyehopper
07-06-2006, 05:27 PM
I like it $$$Mr Market$$$.... Nice Pick! http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif And Good entry too!

You'll ca$h out of this one pretty fast imo.

billyjoe
07-06-2006, 05:34 PM
Mr.Market,
I am shocked . This is the last stock I thought you'd pick. Therefore, it probably will reach 15% before I'm out of shock.
---------billyjoe

spikefader
07-06-2006, 06:07 PM
.....what is fulfillment? Itís not eating all the chips you want and washing it down with the coldest beer on the planet...
lol

Good support play Ernie, and +15% allows for the R shoulder move up. http://www.technicaltrades.net/?p=117

Nice writeup dude! Good luck.

Those looking for a TA-based entry, there's the inside day today. Do a buy stop limit at 50.80 (above today's high) with 5.5% stop under today's low at say 48.00 (below the inside day).

Or you could be more conservative and wait for that 50.80 price and bid at a discount at intraday price support say at the pivot at 49.10 and reduce your risk to 2.2% with the same stop. The latter is what I'd be doing.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/633/goodluck9fn.jpg

Websman
07-06-2006, 06:16 PM
After running a special "short term gain" scan through the VTP, I now realize what a genius you are Mr Market. I now understand the method to your madness. Although AXR may not be the best long term pick, I must remind myself that you are looking for nothing but a short term 15% gain.

The VTP shows that you bought AXR at an excellent point to achieve your intended result. I fully expect that you will see a 15% gain within a two week time frame. Come to think of it, I may go ahead and pick up a few shares myself.

shavens123
07-06-2006, 07:23 PM
as of friday afternoon...the ibd database will update for july and it will be eligible for the ibd 100...with its current ratings it will be up near the top of the list...this will surprise alot of people...monday could be very fun......

Peter Hansen
07-06-2006, 08:13 PM
Years ago went to a promotion dinner for Rio Rancho Estates . They did use a soft sell approach, and you were allowed to leave after a film presentation and dinner. They did not use the rubber hose method to get you to sign on the dotted line. I thought to myself .....who would buy those BS lots .....Little did I know? Oh well it was held in the Gene Boyles Resturant in Clifton NJ ..and the beef was good !

mrmarket
07-06-2006, 09:41 PM
It might be worthwhile if some of you sleuths do your due diligence on AXR by calling realtors in Rio Rancho to check undeveloped lot prices. As I indicated, $30,000/acre seemed to be the average.

Also if anyone else can find out what basis they used to value their land on their balance sheet. I believe the FASB standard is lower of cost or market but its been 20 yrs since I've taken accounting.

Runner
07-06-2006, 10:15 PM
MM, nice write up on AXR. I just checked my FA scans and this stock comes up as number one on both screens. I plot 65.00 as possible target for 06. Looks as if you also got a pretty good entry today. Using my limited FA this company appears solid.

I also noticed it only has 6.6 mil shares outstanding.

shavens123
07-06-2006, 10:31 PM
the main stock tables updated tonight...axr is now on the main tables and eligible for tomorrows ibd 100....top 5 baby....rocket shot...

studentofthemarket
07-06-2006, 10:45 PM
does anybody know what/ if any water constraints there might be?

That is thing that gives me pause in SW development.

student

mrmarket
07-07-2006, 06:29 AM
does anybody know what/ if any water constraints there might be?

That is thing that gives me pause in SW development.

student

If they can do it in Vegas, with its population, Rio Rancho is a snap.

Karel
07-07-2006, 10:42 AM
OK, Huge One, I am in! Today at 49.55. Limit order to sell at 57.45 in place!

Regards,

Karel

jiesen
07-07-2006, 10:42 AM
Excellent pick, $$MM! I'm in with you at 49.9.

mrmarket
07-07-2006, 11:31 AM
Looks like I finally got a good entry...

Lyehopper
07-07-2006, 11:39 AM
Looks like I finally got a good entry...
Yes you did!.... I'm playin' with you on this one too $$$Mr. Market$$$.... Should happen quick. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

billyjoe
07-07-2006, 02:18 PM
Mr.Market,
You and Lye must have put some big bucks into this one , volume more than doubled and price way up. Keep 'er going.
-------------billyjoe

DSteckler
07-07-2006, 03:00 PM
Nice call, Ernie.

mrmarket
07-07-2006, 03:09 PM
does anyone else see the same long term value that I do? I could care less about the short term chart action. I was looking for someone to tell me that I wasn't valuing their land holdings properly....

Websman
07-07-2006, 04:15 PM
Look at that little doggie run! <TICK>

lemonjello
07-07-2006, 07:21 PM
If my maff is correct, I think your $600,000,000 could be too hi.

Gross margin on land sales last 10Q - 47%
RE inventory on last 10K - $52,906,000

Approx retail land value = $100,000,000

By my reading only a portion of the 20k acres are under current development.

Who cares tho, it looks like it's on its way to make 15% in a crappy market!

Anyone confirm it made the IBD 100?

Thanks to Spike for the nice stoppage info.





While the earnings are pretty impressive, the real story is in the balance sheet. Itís pretty simple. A call to several Rio Rancho realtors revealed that the average Rio Rancho undeveloped acre was going for $30,000. If you take AMREPís 20,000 acres and multiply it by $30,000 per acre, you get $600,000,000.

shavens123
07-07-2006, 09:04 PM
could easily go to top 3 in a week or so.....

New-born baby
07-08-2006, 06:52 AM
MM,
Did I miss something? You bought at $49.80

1.15 X $49.80= $57.27

OR

$49.80 X 15% = $7.47, when added to $49.80 = $57.27

Your target price is $57.45. Is the difference commisions?

mrmarket
07-08-2006, 07:47 AM
MM,
Did I miss something? You bought at $49.80

1.15 X $49.80= $57.27

OR

$49.80 X 15% = $7.47, when added to $49.80 = $57.27

Your target price is $57.45. Is the difference commisions?


something like that

lemonjello
07-09-2006, 06:02 PM
Dearest Lemonjello,

Thank you for wading thru the complicated footnotes of the 10K and 10Q and providing that fine bit of concise, insightful financial analysis regarding the retail land value. Truly, you are a gentleman and a scholar. :)



If my maff is correct, I think your $600,000,000 could be too hi.

Gross margin on land sales last 10Q - 47%
RE inventory on last 10K - $52,906,000

Approx retail land value = $100,000,000

By my reading only a portion of the 20k acres are under current development.

lemonjello
07-09-2006, 06:09 PM
Gentle Lemonjello,

Why it was a pleasure to provide some humble assistance for a fine and pleasant gentleman such as yourself.

With highest regards,

Lemonjello



Dearest Lemonjello,

Thank you for wading thru the complicated footnotes of the 10K and 10Q and providing that fine bit of concise, insightful financial analysis regarding the retail land value. Truly, you are a gentleman and a scholar. :)

Hany
07-11-2006, 08:07 AM
This little guy was caught up in selling yesterday. Needless to say, Ernie's analysis completely makes sense and this is an undervalued stock. I have to say that the timing right now is perfect. I bought in at $50.70.

DSteckler
07-11-2006, 08:40 AM
this is an undervalued stock.

What makes it an undervalued stock?

studentofthemarket
07-11-2006, 10:05 AM
This little guy was caught up in selling yesterday. Needless to say, Ernie's analysis completely makes sense and this is an undervalued stock. I have to say that the timing right now is perfect. I bought in at $50.70.


it is trading at 47.35 now. your timing is awesome.

otoh, my ibca pick is going up today. To be honest I didn't buy any more though. I got stopped out of it a couple weeks ago. I'm rather surprised it is still going up. but it was the strongest of the Huge ones top 5 or so.

student.

DSteckler
07-11-2006, 10:08 AM
Student, are you here to add anything of value or just to snipe?

Lyehopper
07-11-2006, 12:14 PM
Hey Lemon!.... "They" say a person who talks to himself ain't necessarily "crazy"..... UNLESS he actually answers himself back!.... SsSsSsSsSsssss!

DSteckler
07-11-2006, 03:50 PM
Today's action broke the short-term support line and tody's low tested the intermediate-term support line. Heavy downside volume suggests this is institutional selling.

Runner
07-11-2006, 04:21 PM
Folks in my short time here at MMís site Iíve noticed he does not concern himself with market timing. In essence MM is a true fundamentalist. He is not concerned about today or yesterday. I think he invests into stocks with strong earnings and strong balance sheets. Sure he will wait for many to recover and some might not. I canít fault MM as he has a system and seems to follow it. I think most of us one this site are swing traders or day traders. We donít see things the same as a strong FA guyÖ MM, your awesome in sticking with your plans!!

lemonjello
07-11-2006, 04:33 PM
Maybe that explains why I saw a MM pick go down today! :eek:




Hey Lemon!.... "They" say a person who talks to himself ain't necessarily "crazy"..... UNLESS he actually answers himself back!.... SsSsSsSsSsssss!

mrmarket
07-11-2006, 05:09 PM
Folks in my short time here at MMís site Iíve noticed he does not concern himself with market timing. In essence MM is a true fundamentalist. He is not concerned about today or yesterday. I think he invests into stocks with strong earnings and strong balance sheets. Sure he will wait for many to recover and some might not. I canít fault MM as he has a system and seems to follow it. I think most of us one this site are swing traders or day traders. We donít see things the same as a strong FA guyÖ MM, your awesome in sticking with your plans!!


There is more than one way to skin a cat. At the end of the day, the value of my IRA portfolio is many times what it once was.

Hany
07-11-2006, 05:58 PM
it is trading at 47.35 now. your timing is awesome.

otoh, my ibca pick is going up today. To be honest I didn't buy any more though. I got stopped out of it a couple weeks ago. I'm rather surprised it is still going up. but it was the strongest of the Huge ones top 5 or so.

student.

Hey Student,

The market is offering this company stock on sale right now and when the sale ends, it will get valued properly again. There is a lot of turbulence right now because Q2 earnings season started badly due to Alcoa and investors are worried about world politics. How does that affect this stock? Fundamentally nothing but a stock is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Right now, Mr. Market is in a bad mood. I'll wait for him to get into a good mood. IBCA is a good choice too.

skiracer
07-11-2006, 06:08 PM
There is more than one way to skin a cat. At the end of the day, the value of my IRA portfolio is many times what it once was.

Ernie,
We all hit the skids occassionally and have a loser or two an it doesn't mean a thing. You are without a doubt the greatest host ever an a great trader with a solid discipline. There aren't many that can match your overall record, credentials, and stature in my mind. And besides that what man doesn't have his ups and downs over the course of time. You're the best and thanks for everything you have brought to this forum and provided us with. You take your lumps and wear criticism as well as anyone I know while learning in the process an are a credit to the investing community. You don't owe us or anyone any explanations or have to defend your trades in my mind. Keep it in mind that most everyone here has made money on any number of your picks.

mrmarket
07-11-2006, 09:37 PM
Ernie,
We all hit the skids occassionally and have a loser or two an it doesn't mean a thing. You are without a doubt the greatest host ever an a great trader with a solid discipline. There aren't many that can match your overall record, credentials, and stature in my mind. And besides that what man doesn't have his ups and downs over the course of time. You're the best and thanks for everything you have brought to this forum and provided us with. You take your lumps and wear criticism as well as anyone I know while learning in the process an are a credit to the investing community. You don't owe us or anyone any explanations or have to defend your trades in my mind. Keep it in mind that most everyone here has made money on any number of your picks.


Ski....thanks for the kind words. Your contributions to MY forum, greatly exceed any I have made myself. Having said that, I really only meant to say that there is more than one way to skin a cat....

Maybe a better way to say it is the story of the tortoise and the hare. The day traders and TA guys love to jump around. Within the milliseconds that they live in, they each have their own systems and theories that they refine and personalize, and hopefully make money.

I try to catch a wave and ride it. Sometimes the wave takes me to the shore...other times it breaks a little funny. But in either case, the wave I jump on almost always has some energy underneath it that will eventually propel it to where I want to go.

Or maybe the gamblers will enjoy this analogy...the blackjack player counts the cards and adjusts his bet when the deck favors his position (the daytrader / TA)..making hundreds of bets an hour

The sports bettor studies for a week the offenses/defenses, tendencies and exploitation pontentials and sifts through the point spreads of hundreds of games to find the best value and only THEN does he plunk down the one best bet for that week.

Most of the time you win...sometimes you lose. But as long as you have confidence in your system and understand the basis for your success, it's good to be consistent in your approach.

mrmarket
07-11-2006, 09:39 PM
Hey Student,

The market is offering this company stock on sale right now and when the sale ends, it will get valued properly again. There is a lot of turbulence right now because Q2 earnings season started badly due to Alcoa and investors are worried about world politics. How does that affect this stock? Fundamentally nothing but a stock is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Right now, Mr. Market is in a bad mood. I'll wait for him to get into a good mood. IBCA is a good choice too.


I'm not in a bad mood. I liked AXR more because of its balance sheet than because of its momentum traits. If the Rio Rancho land value dropped in the last few days please let me know...I didn't hear anything about it.

billyjoe
07-11-2006, 09:55 PM
Mr. Market,
I always remember the comments of an investor who said "thank God the real estate values of each individual's home isn't posted daily, there'd be panic in the streets as the prices went up and down"

----------billyjoe

Websman
07-11-2006, 09:55 PM
AXR is a bargain! I need to buy it.

Runner
07-11-2006, 09:56 PM
Well what is your perception of the markets? Well for all it is different we perceive things in a different way. I often think of the markets as the sea. It moves with power sometimes and other times it is calm. It drifts through time and moves in a rhythm. We all in a way try to get in rhythm with the markets. We stand on the shore and watch the waves moving ever some gracefully in and out up and down. Some times when you stand on the beach and have your toes in the water you can feel the power. Do we move head on into the waves or do we try to swim out and then put our backs to the wave and ride it? Often when we get out of sync with the market we get frustrated and try even harder. Often this compounds the problems and our account feels the heat.

The sea cannot be predicted as the same for the markets. Face it the markets move in a random fashion and even the best set-ups fail and do things you least expect. Probabilities are what we look at before jumping in the water. How far is it across this logon? Many people have drowned because they miss calculated the distance from one point to another in a sense it happens every day in the market. We try to access the information at hand and formulate a plan and enter into the water and attempt to get in sync with the rhythm of the market. Part of this plan is to minimize losses through using stop orders to prevent us from becoming drowned from the sea.

A stock moving in a nice wave is likely to continue this wave until the wave has no more energy. Many people try to fight the wave and end up out of rhythm and canít figure out why they loss. Others get on the wave and emotions or perceptions tell them to get off and the wave just started and they would yield huge profits had they rode the wave.

In a sense we all are the captains of our ship with the same maps. We all navigate across the sea with guided precision. We try to avoid the rocks and choppy waters. We all have a different boat and some are larger then others and some have more advanced navigational equipment. The sea could shallow a large ship just the same as a small one. It does not care. One thing is the same for all and that is the map. The chart tells one where the stock has been and based off this we attempt to determine where it is going.
Is the past a preview of the future? Well no guarantees here remember the market is random and it does what it does. It flows in and out and youíre either on the shore waiting or your on the wave or your fighting the wave.

jiesen
07-11-2006, 10:51 PM
I'm not in a bad mood. I liked AXR more because of its balance sheet than because of its momentum traits. If the Rio Rancho land value dropped in the last few days please let me know...I didn't hear anything about it.

http://www.zillow.com/search/Search.htm?addrstrthood=1344+NW+Loma+Del+Cielo&citystatezip=87048&mode=search

I'm no expert, but prices seem to be holding up pretty well in that neck of the woods. Of course the last few days wouldn't show up on this thing, though...

BTW, I do panic every time I check this and see my home's value fall (or rise). :P

mrmarket
07-12-2006, 07:20 AM
Well what is your perception of the markets? Well for all it is different we perceive things in a different way. I often think of the markets as the sea. It moves with power sometimes and other times it is calm. It drifts through time and moves in a rhythm. We all in a way try to get in rhythm with the markets. We stand on the shore and watch the waves moving ever some gracefully in and out up and down. Some times when you stand on the beach and have your toes in the water you can feel the power. Do we move head on into the waves or do we try to swim out and then put our backs to the wave and ride it? Often when we get out of sync with the market we get frustrated and try even harder. Often this compounds the problems and our account feels the heat.

The sea cannot be predicted as the same for the markets. Face it the markets move in a random fashion and even the best set-ups fail and do things you least expect. Probabilities are what we look at before jumping in the water. How far is it across this logon? Many people have drowned because they miss calculated the distance from one point to another in a sense it happens every day in the market. We try to access the information at hand and formulate a plan and enter into the water and attempt to get in sync with the rhythm of the market. Part of this plan is to minimize losses through using stop orders to prevent us from becoming drowned from the sea.

A stock moving in a nice wave is likely to continue this wave until the wave has no more energy. Many people try to fight the wave and end up out of rhythm and canít figure out why they loss. Others get on the wave and emotions or perceptions tell them to get off and the wave just started and they would yield huge profits had they rode the wave.

In a sense we all are the captains of our ship with the same maps. We all navigate across the sea with guided precision. We try to avoid the rocks and choppy waters. We all have a different boat and some are larger then others and some have more advanced navigational equipment. The sea could shallow a large ship just the same as a small one. It does not care. One thing is the same for all and that is the map. The chart tells one where the stock has been and based off this we attempt to determine where it is going.
Is the past a preview of the future? Well no guarantees here remember the market is random and it does what it does. It flows in and out and youíre either on the shore waiting or your on the wave or your fighting the wave.


That's heavy dude.

DSteckler
07-12-2006, 10:04 AM
Taking out the intermediate-term trendline. Holding the 50% retracement level, using the 1/12 low and the 6/26 high. Should it start trading below 43, expect a test of 39.

mrmarket
07-12-2006, 10:35 AM
remember the mantra:

value..value...value...

DSteckler
07-12-2006, 10:36 AM
If you liked it at 50, you'll really like it at 40...and love it at 30!

billyjoe
07-12-2006, 10:53 AM
Jiesen,
Zillow is scary. They have an aerial view of my house that is unlike anything I've seen. The number of rooms is wrong , the build date is 90 years too new , number of baths is wrong. Other than that they're close. I guess close counts with the auditor / county treasurer/ appraiser.
--------billyjoe

studentofthemarket
07-12-2006, 10:54 AM
If you liked it at 50, you'll really like it at 40...and love it at 30!


Bust my chops for sniping? ROFLMAOTMSH

Lyehopper
07-12-2006, 11:26 AM
Well what is your perception of the markets? Well for all it is different we perceive things in a different way. I often think of the markets as the sea. It moves with power sometimes and other times it is calm. It drifts through time and moves in a rhythm. We all in a way try to get in rhythm with the markets. We stand on the shore and watch the waves moving ever some gracefully in and out up and down. Some times when you stand on the beach and have your toes in the water you can feel the power. Do we move head on into the waves or do we try to swim out and then put our backs to the wave and ride it? Often when we get out of sync with the market we get frustrated and try even harder. Often this compounds the problems and our account feels the heat.

The sea cannot be predicted as the same for the markets. Face it the markets move in a random fashion and even the best set-ups fail and do things you least expect. Probabilities are what we look at before jumping in the water. How far is it across this logon? Many people have drowned because they miss calculated the distance from one point to another in a sense it happens every day in the market. We try to access the information at hand and formulate a plan and enter into the water and attempt to get in sync with the rhythm of the market. Part of this plan is to minimize losses through using stop orders to prevent us from becoming drowned from the sea.

A stock moving in a nice wave is likely to continue this wave until the wave has no more energy. Many people try to fight the wave and end up out of rhythm and canít figure out why they loss. Others get on the wave and emotions or perceptions tell them to get off and the wave just started and they would yield huge profits had they rode the wave.

In a sense we all are the captains of our ship with the same maps. We all navigate across the sea with guided precision. We try to avoid the rocks and choppy waters. We all have a different boat and some are larger then others and some have more advanced navigational equipment. The sea could shallow a large ship just the same as a small one. It does not care. One thing is the same for all and that is the map. The chart tells one where the stock has been and based off this we attempt to determine where it is going.
Is the past a preview of the future? Well no guarantees here remember the market is random and it does what it does. It flows in and out and youíre either on the shore waiting or your on the wave or your fighting the wave.
Yeah, that's pretty deep Runner.... http://new.wavlist.com/movies/318/pcu-laid.wav

DSteckler
07-12-2006, 11:27 AM
Broken link, Lye.

Lyehopper
07-12-2006, 11:54 AM
Broken link, Lye.
Should work now....

DSteckler
07-12-2006, 11:57 AM
LOL! What movie is that from?

Lyehopper
07-12-2006, 12:32 PM
LOL! What movie is that from?
PCU.... http://www.mutantreviewers.com/pmovie.html

mimo_100
07-12-2006, 01:25 PM
I ran a simulated McClellan Oscillator on AXR.

http://img56.imageshack.us/img56/8463/axrmccllellanoscillator9rr.jpg (http://img56.imageshack.us/img56/8463/axrmccllellanoscillator9rr.jpg)


The 10% trend peaked at 55.78622 on June 29. It is still in the green. However, the oscillator is now at 1.69518 and falling.

The price was 44.67 when I took this snapshot.

casinoboy3
07-12-2006, 05:16 PM
well it has almost reached 15% in less than a week... you are HUGE!!

Runner
07-12-2006, 06:48 PM
Yeah, that's pretty deep Runner.... http://new.wavlist.com/movies/318/pcu-laid.wav
LOL.. I think I wrote that in December 05 after kicking myself for being a knuckle head.

lemonjello
07-12-2006, 08:00 PM
Anyone still holding AXR who aren't as HUGE or have as much capital cushion as MM -

Let's consider what happens to the land value per share if it's not $91/share based on a $600 million estimate, but rather $100 million based on the estimate of $100 million extracted from the company filings indicated in my post above.

Using 6.6 million shares outstanding gives a RETAIL land value per share of about $15. Somewhat less. Consider also, the market seems to be GOING DOWN, this stock seems to be GOING DOWN. The next support is around 38.50. The actual float is 1.7 million per Yahoo. It could go even lower before it stops. Didn't we just see this type of behavior with hyper earnings stocks being kicked to the curb a few weeks ago with MFLX and so on.

Good luck everyone.

mrmarket
07-12-2006, 11:29 PM
Anyone still holding AXR who aren't as HUGE or have as much capital cushion as MM -

Let's consider what happens to the land value per share if it's not $91/share based on a $600 million estimate, but rather $100 million based on the estimate of $100 million extracted from the company filings indicated in my post above.

Using 6.6 million shares outstanding gives a RETAIL land value per share of about $15. Somewhat less. Consider also, the market seems to be GOING DOWN, this stock seems to be GOING DOWN. The next support is around 38.50. The actual float is 1.7 million per Yahoo. It could go even lower before it stops. Didn't we just see this type of behavior with hyper earnings stocks being kicked to the curb a few weeks ago with MFLX and so on.

Good luck everyone.

The company filings are showing the land value at "the lower of cost or market" which is the FASB standard. This company records earnings when it sells its land, because the revenue generated by the land sale exceeds the cost of the land that it holds on its books.

The point of my analysis is that the land on the balance sheet is UNDERVALUED and that is why this stock is cheap, in my opinion.

DSteckler
07-13-2006, 06:30 AM
Cheap stocks can get cheaper, Ernie. Your thorough analysis is very useful if you're buying the company, a la Warren Buffet, but will be for naught if the Street votes with its feet.

You're buying the stock, not the company, and that's where chart reading and money management (stop losses) comes into play.

mrmarket
07-13-2006, 09:48 AM
Cheap stocks can get cheaper, Ernie. Your thorough analysis is very useful if you're buying the company, a la Warren Buffet, but will be for naught if the Street votes with its feet.

You're buying the stock, not the company, and that's where chart reading and money management (stop losses) comes into play.


True..but ultimately a stock will reach its REAL value when the market wakes up and figures out what it is worth. A company can take itself private, buy back stock or pay special dividends to act as a catalyst.

Conversely, management can also steal from the shareholders...happens all the time.

DSteckler
07-13-2006, 10:10 AM
True..but ultimately a stock will reach its REAL value when the market wakes up and figures out what it is worth.

That's nice. Meanwhile, you can lose 50%+ of your investment by the time that happens.

To buy a stock with no regard to market timing/chart reading is foolish, IMO. You're seeing that happen with this latest pic.

DSteckler
07-13-2006, 10:10 AM
True..but ultimately a stock will reach its REAL value when the market wakes up and figures out what it is worth.

That's nice. Meanwhile, you can lose 50%+ of your investment by the time that happens.

To buy a stock with no regard to market timing/chart reading is foolish, IMO. You're seeing that happen with this latest pic.

mrmarket
07-13-2006, 10:40 AM
That's nice. Meanwhile, you can lose 50%+ of your investment by the time that happens.

To buy a stock with no regard to market timing/chart reading is foolish, IMO. You're seeing that happen with this latest pic.


How do you explain my track record?? Foolish? Go ahead..I'm waiting.

lalitha0
07-13-2006, 01:12 PM
Hi Mr. Market,
I am new to this board. I bought AXR around 50.00 and now it has lost 20%!

Do you think this will make up the 20% loss and gain another 15% in 4-6 weeks?

thanks,
lalitha:confused: :confused: :confused:

studentofthemarket
07-13-2006, 02:03 PM
Hi Mr. Market,
I am new to this board. I bought AXR around 50.00 and now it has lost 20%!

Do you think this will make up the 20% loss and gain another 15% in 4-6 weeks?

thanks,
lalitha:confused: :confused: :confused:

you're taking a vicious pounding on this stock. I'm not sure whether ernie slept through the lectures on Opportunity cost or what. But while he argues with DSteckler over his track record he's holding many positions that are under water in a HUGE way. That's money that could have been protected with a stop and redeployed in a better investment. If you have enough money you can buy any and all stocks and merely wait for them to go up. Then just sell when they do, and hold the rest forever no matter how low they go, and believe you are beating the market like a gong.

preservation of capital should be a primary concern for anybody that wants to work in the stock market. If you don't have any money you can't buy anything. I've gotten shaken out of a few stocks in the last year. Some that went on to bigger gains. WIRE and IBCA to name a couple. I didn't make as much as I might have over 17% or so on each, but I didn't lose any money either.

But given what is happening around the world right now, and think this stock is not only going to recover but then gain that much in 4-6 weeks is really wishful thinking IMHO. A wider war in the middle east is going to hurt everybody.


student

mrmarket
07-13-2006, 03:01 PM
Hi Mr. Market,
I am new to this board. I bought AXR around 50.00 and now it has lost 20%!

Do you think this will make up the 20% loss and gain another 15% in 4-6 weeks?

thanks,
lalitha:confused: :confused: :confused:


Since it has lost its momentum, it would be a stretch to make my target in 4 - 6 weeks...however, I still like its valuation and am content to hold it.

Of course, what YOU do with YOUR money should be YOUR decision (no one else's)!

mrmarket
07-13-2006, 03:06 PM
you're taking a vicious pounding on this stock. I'm not sure whether ernie slept through the lectures on Opportunity cost or what. But while he argues with DSteckler over his track record he's holding many positions that are under water in a HUGE way. That's money that could have been protected with a stop and redeployed in a better investment. If you have enough money you can buy any and all stocks and merely wait for them to go up. Then just sell when they do, and hold the rest forever no matter how low they go, and believe you are beating the market like a gong.

preservation of capital should be a primary concern for anybody that wants to work in the stock market. If you don't have any money you can't buy anything. I've gotten shaken out of a few stocks in the last year. Some that went on to bigger gains. WIRE and IBCA to name a couple. I didn't make as much as I might have over 17% or so on each, but I didn't lose any money either.

But given what is happening around the world right now, and think this stock is not only going to recover but then gain that much in 4-6 weeks is really wishful thinking IMHO. A wider war in the middle east is going to hurt everybody.


student

Student,

While I respect your insight, I must add that this, and my track record, has been analyzed and backtested over and over again. Many of these threads are archived in this forum.

The result has always been that since I pick stocks with sterling fundamentals, deploying stops would have resulted in me making LESS money than if I continue to hold these positions.

As far as beating the market like a gong, I have been. Haven't you been reading all of my sell emails? 81 of my last 82 trades have outperformed the S&P 500 over the same holding period...ain't nuttin wrong with dat.

mrmarket
07-13-2006, 03:29 PM
PTSI was a perfect example of this...down big..came back and beat the market

I can probably name 30 others if you're interested.

Websman
07-13-2006, 03:49 PM
Diversity, diversity, diversity....

Lyehopper
07-13-2006, 04:27 PM
Everyone here should be aware of $$$Mr Market$$$'s "buy and hold" style of investing....

If you can't tolerate a large loss then you should set some solid rules for selling.... and live by them.

billyjoe
07-13-2006, 04:44 PM
PTSI was a perfect example of this...down big..came back and beat the market

I can probably name 30 others if you're interested.


Student,
Ernie is correct I believe at least 31 of his picks dropped at least 8% and some way more before coming back to gain 15% or greater. Imagine the loss had he sold those 31 at an 8% loss instead of a 15% gain.
----------billyjoe

DSteckler
07-13-2006, 05:35 PM
Imagine the loss had he sold those 31 at an 8% loss instead of a 15% gain.
----------billyjoe

Imagine the gain had he bought them back lower than where he sold them.

Lyehopper
07-13-2006, 05:50 PM
Imagine the gain had he bought them back lower than where he sold them.
..... http://new.wavlist.com/tv/027/sf-dingo.wav

billyjoe
07-13-2006, 06:17 PM
..... http://new.wavlist.com/tv/027/sf-dingo.wav


Lye,
I don't get anything at new.wavlist.com

billyjoe

Websman
07-13-2006, 06:23 PM
As I vaguely said in a previous post, Diversification is an important factor in Mr Markets trading plan. One can afford to take a greater percentage loss if he diversifies his portfolio.

skiracer
07-13-2006, 06:58 PM
..... http://new.wavlist.com/tv/027/sf-dingo.wav

Very cool Lye. Is that last one from Saturday Night Live or the actual movie.

billyjoe
07-13-2006, 07:02 PM
Imagine the gain had he bought them back lower than where he sold them.
Dave,
Hindsight is usually 20-20. Why don't you tell us exactly what you would have done in the case of the "Mr.Market 31". For every one you'd sell at an 8% stop and not repurchase you've got a minimum 23% loss. Don't tell me you wouldn't have purchased any of them in the first place.

-----------billyjoe

DSteckler
07-13-2006, 07:09 PM
For every one you'd sell at an 8% stop and not repurchase you've got a minimum 23% loss.
-----------billyjoe

Why wouldn't you have repurchased them? For that matter, maybe the purchase was made at an extended price and should have been bought at a lower price in the first place?

billyjoe
07-13-2006, 07:16 PM
Why wouldn't you have repurchased them? For that matter, maybe the purchase was made at an extended price and should have been bought at a lower price in the first place?

Dave,
I don't understand. You seem to be saying any stock that goes down must have been bought at an extended price and should have been bought at a
lower price , but how would you know that until it has gone down ?

-----------billyjoe

DSteckler
07-13-2006, 07:33 PM
I'm not being too clear, Billjoe, so I apologize.

What I'm trying to say is that sometimes, it's better to sell at a small loss and repurchase at a lower price, than B&H.

Timing of the buy is also important. Ernie bought on 7/6. On that date AXR was struggling to stay above its 50DMA and was trading below its 20-day EMA. This is a technical sign that a stock is in difficulty (a better place to buy is when a stock is above the 20-day EMA, 50DMA and 200DMA).

The DMI crossover went negative on 7/5, a further sign of bearish action.

The Volume Flow Indicator had turned negative on above average volume on 7/5 after weakening since 6/29, a sure sign that distribution was underway. Frankly, I still wouldn't buy AXR because there's been no sign that the selling is drying up.

Am I criticizing Ernie's methodology? Not at all - his record speaks for itself. But just because you can make 15% on a stock doesn't mean you necessarily want to experience a 25% or greater drawdown beforehand.

skiracer
07-13-2006, 07:52 PM
I'm not being too clear, Billjoe, so I apologize.

What I'm trying to say is that sometimes, it's better to sell at a small loss and repurchase at a lower price, than B&H.

Timing of the buy is also important. Ernie bought on 7/6. On that date AXR was struggling to stay above its 50DMA and was trading below its 20-day EMA. This is a technical sign that a stock is in difficulty (a better place to buy is when a stock is above the 20-day EMA, 50DMA and 200DMA).

The DMI crossover went negative on 7/5, a further sign of bearish action.

The Volume Flow Indicator had turned negative on above average volume on 7/5 after weakening since 6/29, a sure sign that distribution was underway. Frankly, I still wouldn't buy AXR because there's been no sign that the selling is drying up.

Am I criticizing Ernie's methodology? Not at all - his record speaks for itself. But just because you can make 15% on a stock doesn't mean you necessarily want to experience a 25% or greater drawdown beforehand.

I agree with Dave completely an have been stating that same point, along with a few others, that limiting the loss at your initial maximum % and watch and wait for the stock to bottom or drop to wherever you think the point is that it will reverse and turn back up is a tried and true strategy. I bought HOM the first time an it went up and then started to drop. I lost most of the gains but exited for a very small % gain. It dropped on that news that Stocklemon.com put out that IIC (Doug) was spreading around the internet. I exited before I lost all the gains for a very small gain but still liked the stock and believed it could still go back to previous highs. Watched it drop and bought it back at what I thought was the bottom, around $6, and today it closed at $7.25. I'm up over $1.10 or so on 5000 shares. I didn't have 5000 shares the first time around because I bought at a somewhat higher price but the second buy was a bargain an my logic was that if it just went back to near $7 I make a nice gain. If I had held on from my initial entry the trade would still be in negative territory an I would be in a completely different frame of mind about the position. Dave is right in his logic. Not to say Ernie is wrong in any sense of the word. Ernie has his own discipline and strategy and lives by it. There are always two arguements to each concept. But Dave's points are correct and work just the way he says as I illustrated with the HOM position which is now up almost 21%. There is a very big difference.

diogenes
07-13-2006, 07:54 PM
I agree with Dave completely an have been stating that same point, along with a few others, that limiting the loss at your initial maximum % and watch and wait for the stock to bottom or drop to wherever you think the point is that it will reverse and turn back up is a tried and true strategy. I bought HOM the first time an it went up and then started to drop. I lost most of the gains but exited for a very small % gain. It dropped on that news that Stocklemon.com put out that IIC (Doug) was spreading around the internet. I exited before I lost all the gains for a very small gain but still liked the stock and believed it could still go back to previous highs. Watched it drop and bought it back at what I thought was the bottom, around $6, and today it closed at $7.25. I'm up over $1.10 or so on 5000 shares. I didn't have 5000 shares the first time around because I bought at a somewhat higher price but the second buy was a bargain an my logic was that if it just went back to near $7 I make a nice gain. If I had held on from my initial entry the trade would still be in negative territory an I would be in a completely different frame of mind about the position. Dave is right in his logic. Not to say Ernie is wrong in any sense of the word. Ernie has his own discipline and strategy and lives by it. There are always two arguements to each concept. But Dave's points are correct and work just the way he says as I illustrated with the HOM position which is now up almost 21%. There is a very big difference.

Which brings to mind the following question:
Has anyone ever examined the Maximum Adverse Excursion of Mr. Market picks?

casinoboy3
07-13-2006, 08:04 PM
Why not a stop at 15-20% loss? All of those 31 stocks fell 8%, but i don't think many of them fell 20% or more... a 20% stop would have prevented a loss from stocks like BEL, CNXS, MFLX, KBH, TOL, BBD, (and probably AXR soon) ect. which are over 30%+ now...

82 picks is amazing and most impressive, but I don't care if MM' current IRA value is 100x times what it used to be..... if the current holdings in MM's portfolio keep going the way they are now, the account will be worthless. Whose to say stocks like BEL, MFLX, KBH, etc will ever reach their target?

Another point that I think is important to consider is that there is no more room among the 15 holdings or so for picks like AXR.... assuming MM' IRA is fully invested invested of course. Back a couple of years ago when the streak was just getting started, there was room for "bad" picks to drop, lose value, or take their time to reach their target- because at the same time there were usually other picks reaching the targets and new ones being bought and sold for a profit all the time.

There is no room for that now. FRGB may reach 15% soon, but other then this, it could be awhile before anything reaches it target because they are so far in the red. Even in a bull market, some of these stocks have to double or triple in value before they reach the target and that's going to take awhile. Soon the portfolio is just going to be full of a bunch of losers when in reality MM's stock picking method does work and it could be used to find and make money off real winners. I know MM talked about selling some stocks and ending the streak to find better stocks. What ever happened to that?

I don't know if what I'm saying makes any sense, hopefully someone understands.... I myself am still in college and took advice on opening a roth IRA about 3 years ago. I was up 20% this year. Now, I'm well below where I used to be 3 years ago thanks to stocks like KBH, CNXS, MFLX, BBD, and AXR.

I read how important it is to "save early" and how "every year counts", but I practically just lost 3 years and I think that's pathetic. Like I said, the money is in a Roth, so it's not going to change the way I do anything now. But I don't know whether to continue with stocks or sell what I own and just put it all into ETF's and let it go. ............

skiracer
07-13-2006, 08:33 PM
Why not a stop at 15-20% loss? All of those 31 stocks fell 8%, but i don't think many of them fell 20% or more... a 20% stop would have prevented a loss from stocks like BEL, CNXS, MFLX, KBH, TOL, BBD, (and probably AXR soon) ect. which are over 30%+ now...

82 picks is amazing and most impressive, but I don't care if MM' current IRA value is 100x times what it used to be..... if the current holdings in MM's portfolio keep going the way they are now, the account will be worthless. Whose to say stocks like BEL, MFLX, KBH, etc will ever reach their target?

Another point that I think is important to consider is that there is no more room among the 15 holdings or so for picks like AXR.... assuming MM' IRA is fully invested invested of course. Back a couple of years ago when the streak was just getting started, there was room for "bad" picks to drop, lose value, or take their time to reach their target- because at the same time there were usually other picks reaching the targets and new ones being bought and sold for a profit all the time.

There is no room for that now. FRGB may reach 15% soon, but other then this, it could be awhile before anything reaches it target because they are so far in the red. Even in a bull market, some of these stocks have to double or triple in value before they reach the target and that's going to take awhile. Soon the portfolio is just going to be full of a bunch of losers when in reality MM's stock picking method does work and it could be used to find and make money off real winners. I know MM talked about selling some stocks and ending the streak to find better stocks. What ever happened to that?

I don't know if what I'm saying makes any sense, hopefully someone understands.... I myself am still in college and took advice on opening a roth IRA about 3 years ago. I was up 20% this year. Now, I'm well below where I used to be 3 years ago thanks to stocks like KBH, CNXS, MFLX, BBD, and AXR.

I read how important it is to "save early" and how "every year counts", but I practically just lost 3 years and I think that's pathetic. Like I said, the money is in a Roth, so it's not going to change the way I do anything now. But I don't know whether to continue with stocks or sell what I own and just put it all into ETF's and let it go. ............

I think that what you are saying makes plenty of sense. What I don't think you have realized yet is that you have to determine your own discipline and strategys. Following MM has proven to be great for most everyone here over the course of 3/4 years. There is nothing that says you have to do exactly as he does, buy what he does when he does, or hold through the times that he does. Your problem, if you want to call it a problem, is that when you are following MM's lead or anyone's lead and they go on a bad streak you can't say anything bad about their strategy because you followed it. Ernie never talked you or anyone else into buying on his lead. You followed what you thought was going to be a winner. You have to start studying the entire breadth of the markets. You should know about all of the different vehicles to trade and about both sides of analysis. Technical and fundamental analysis an how they can work together and by themselves. Until you do that and understand that in all of this you cannot blame anyone else for losing your money or the shape you are in because you followed their lead. You had better start studying and learning everything you can about all of this and learn to do it for yourself first before you follow anyone else. And don't be worrying about Ernie's portfolio. It's none of yours or mine or anyone else's business except for maybe Mrs. Ernie. Let Ernie worry about those losers he's holding the the money lost. You sound like you're at the end of your rope. You haven't experienced anything like what could happen to you in life much less trading. You are sounding like you could be close to giving in instead of analyzing what went wrong and what you could do to make it right. That makes you easy picking for millions of other traders out there in the markets everyday.

Runner
07-13-2006, 08:42 PM
Very nicely said Ski!!

rivercitydan
07-13-2006, 08:48 PM
I have never been a fan of holding losers. Big losers wipe out multiple small gains on winning positions. I follow stops religously, no matter what, if I love a stock, which I try to avoid, I will put the stock solds on a stop-gain watch list to purchase on the day it exceeds my previous stop-loss price. (computers make this possible) Oh, it rarely does. Or if it does it can be a year or two, a long time. When you have stocks that lose 50% to 90% you will rarely recover. Those % losses are devastating. As an example I once owned the homebuilders for at least two years when interest rates were at their lowest, but exited when several of the stocks in the group were breaking their support and moving averages. I still watch tol, kbh,ryl,etc. and am thankful that I followed those stops.
This is my business and it was inevitable that the builders were going to be hit when interest rates went up as much as they have. I have seen this happen at least 5 times in my career.I have been on the dark side since May 11. Yes, those stocks are cheap,cheap,cheap, but they can become cheaper and they will. The turnaround time can be a couple of years or longer, too long for me to wait. I do watch those stocks every day. We can only follow the market and at this time, it points dramatically down. Every day I look at those cheap stocks that I want to buy when the bleeding is over.

Ernie is a smart fellow and a great stock picker. I think he would be good at picking horses, sports games, and las vegas gambling. Ernie is a rare person in that he follows his philosophy and beats the market. Ernie's stock analysis is great and funny which I enjoy the most. That is not to say his performance cannot be improved.

Oh, and I never enter the market with new longs when the market is decidedly negative. Remember the market in the short term can be inbelievably irrational, but in the long term the market is based upon value.This downturn looks relentless, this could be a rampaging, bloody bear.


R/C/D

skiracer
07-13-2006, 08:59 PM
Very nicely said Ski!!

Well thank you Runner. These young kids nowadays.

casinoboy3
07-13-2006, 09:26 PM
Well thank you Runner. These young kids nowadays.

I completely agree with you.... I hope it doesn't sound like I am blaming anyone. I "blame" absolutely no one but myself for buying and selling the stocks I have in the past couple of years. I am not blindly following anyone here including MM. I have bought and sold plenty of my own picks, some good some bad. Even if I am losing money I am learning quite a bit.

Yes, it's stupid to follow anyones lead without DD and I know that. I don't do that. I do pay attention to MM's picks because of his track record. I'm not critizing his technique, I don't care what he does with his money nor do I "worry" about it. I was just throwing my thoughts out there about stops and the portfolio, just like everyone else on this board does.

That being said, I admit I don't have enough experience to know exactly what to do with my investments. I try to learn as much as I can going along. There are so many options out there as to investments but my problem is that I simply don't have enough money to be in and out of stocks every week, or sell when the market is bad, or put my money into this and take it out of that, and buy a few shares here, etc. Those transaction costs even at $10 a trade add up quickly and I hesitate buying and selling too often. I don't want to be a day trader I don't have time for that, nor do I think it would be profitable. I don't want buy something like SPY either, I wouldn't be content with market returns (maybe I should be). I'd rather buy and hold a stock. I like reading the reports, news, and following the action.. and I don't like stops. But at the same time that obviously presents a problem when they lose 50%+ of their value.

I'm not desperate and am certainly not at the end of my rope. Does anyone recommend any good books or anything I can look into that might help in my situation? I do want to learn as much as possible and I like investing. I'm just more frusterated by that fact that I don't know exactly what I'm doing then the fact that I've been losing some money. Even though this market sucks I guess I will still hold, I don't know if thats the smart thing to do or not but we'll find out. Anyway, thanks.

Runner
07-13-2006, 09:41 PM
Casinoboy, it is probably a good thing your losing money. I know this sounds twisted but here is my logic. If you just began to invest/trade and you made a bunch of cash you might think your bullet proof. This could then lead into some huge problems. I suggest you figure out a system that works for you and STICK with it. Donít worry about making cash right now that will come with time. Just try to follow a plan. Nothing is wrong with trading fewer shares in the beginning. This way your hits wonít be as bad. I think many make huge mistakes in the beginning by trading way too much money on any one position.

Trust me the market is not going anywhere and current conditions suck. Iíve not read many trading books and I will share one book I think is awesome ďTrade your way to financial freedomĒ, by Van K. Tharp. http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0070647623/103-7371612-8571029?SubscriptionId=0EMV44A9A5YT1RVDGZ82&n=283155

This one book opened my eyes on some crazy stunts I was pulling. Pay close attention to the position sizing chaperÖ

Runner
07-13-2006, 09:52 PM
Oh one last thing. For a short term trader one needs a low commission broker. You might look into Interactive brokers. Iím not sure what the min. is to open account, but 100 shares round trip is 2.00. If you donít trade much you might be fine with 10.00 round trip. I also think IB has a monthly fee of data access. I personally think IB blows the doors off Scotrade.. JMO

Lyehopper
07-13-2006, 10:48 PM
That being said, I admit I don't have enough experience to know exactly what to do with my investments. I try to learn as much as I can going along. There are so many options out there as to investments but my problem is that I simply don't have enough money to be in and out of stocks every week, or sell when the market is bad, or put my money into this and take it out of that, and buy a few shares here, etc.
Hey Casinoboy.... In the POTW contest this week?.... Did you know that a 15 year old boy with NO MONEY is ahead of 75% of the field by short selling a stock that he asked about here on this very forum (the members here told him not to buy the stock.... so he shorted it.lol).... He has NO experience AT ALL.... But guess what?.... He's involved in the forum, he posts and asks questions frequently.... He has a sharp mind AND HE'S LEARNING FAST!.... 15 years OLD!!!! I LOVE IT!.... Why aren't you playing the POTW on a weekly basis and posting on the threads here dude? He wondered about interest rates and yeild curves and so he walks to a bank near his home and asked the freakin' manager to explain (right after he called another bank and they thought he was crazy.LOL).... I'll bet you that this boy will be worth a few $Million by the time he's 30.... What's the difference in him and 95% of the folks who lose their a$$ in the stock market? He has a thirst for knowledge and experience.... He is a true student of the market!.... Give-em-HELL Stickey! http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

lemonjello
07-13-2006, 11:03 PM
Read my post again. I'm aware of the accounting standard. I am using the COMPANY'S OWN MARGIN NUMBER stated in the financial documents. Do you think they are faking up their margin numbers too make them too low? That would be a new one. Maybe the insiders are trying to manipulate the stock down and are going to slurp up the rest of the stock and go private.

Also, MM or anyone have a link to the backtested results of the MM method? I'm curious at this point.

In one of my earlier posts on here I mentioned that the MM record only goes from 2002 and was wondering how it would do in a 2000-type market. Although this type of approach works well in a bullish market, these same stocks tend to get taken out and shot in a bearish market.

Just an eyeball guessimate (not actually running the numbers thru a portfolio scenario) of the return gives about 30-50% per year since 2002 including clunkers which is very good. Is this close?

One thing that concerns me here is that people post these picks to various message boards and novice investors could end up burying their savings into one stock that tanks, not knowing about position sizing and portfolio management or that they may have to carry around a number of clunkers for a lot longer than 4-6 weeks. I see a lot of traffic on the MM picks threads. I know you're a nice guy MM and way too HUGE to want that to happen to people reading your board.

Good luck everyone.

BTW, I was stopped out of AXR earlier thanks to the stop provided by Spike. If it comes back thru again I might pick it up on the way up. ;)



The company filings are showing the land value at "the lower of cost or market" which is the FASB standard. This company records earnings when it sells its land, because the revenue generated by the land sale exceeds the cost of the land that it holds on its books.

The point of my analysis is that the land on the balance sheet is UNDERVALUED and that is why this stock is cheap, in my opinion.

Lyehopper
07-13-2006, 11:04 PM
Very cool Lye. Is that last one from Saturday Night Live or the actual movie.
That's a clip from a Seinfeld episode....

BillyJoe.... leave off the "new"....

mrmarket
07-13-2006, 11:42 PM
Imagine the gain had he bought them back lower than where he sold them.


That's brilliant Dave. If I knew it was going to rain, I would have brought my umbrella to work.

mrmarket
07-13-2006, 11:47 PM
I think that what you are saying makes plenty of sense. What I don't think you have realized yet is that you have to determine your own discipline and strategys. Following MM has proven to be great for most everyone here over the course of 3/4 years. There is nothing that says you have to do exactly as he does, buy what he does when he does, or hold through the times that he does. Your problem, if you want to call it a problem, is that when you are following MM's lead or anyone's lead and they go on a bad streak you can't say anything bad about their strategy because you followed it. Ernie never talked you or anyone else into buying on his lead. You followed what you thought was going to be a winner. You have to start studying the entire breadth of the markets. You should know about all of the different vehicles to trade and about both sides of analysis. Technical and fundamental analysis an how they can work together and by themselves. Until you do that and understand that in all of this you cannot blame anyone else for losing your money or the shape you are in because you followed their lead. You had better start studying and learning everything you can about all of this and learn to do it for yourself first before you follow anyone else. And don't be worrying about Ernie's portfolio. It's none of yours or mine or anyone else's business except for maybe Mrs. Ernie. Let Ernie worry about those losers he's holding the the money lost. You sound like you're at the end of your rope. You haven't experienced anything like what could happen to you in life much less trading. You are sounding like you could be close to giving in instead of analyzing what went wrong and what you could do to make it right. That makes you easy picking for millions of other traders out there in the markets everyday.

Ski...brilliant, cogent and spot on. You are a treasure on this board.

mrmarket
07-13-2006, 11:54 PM
Read my post again. I'm aware of the accounting standard. I am using the COMPANY'S OWN MARGIN NUMBER stated in the financial documents. Do you think they are faking up their margin numbers too make them too low? That would be a new one. Maybe the insiders are trying to manipulate the stock down and are going to slurp up the rest of the stock and go private.

Also, MM or anyone have a link to the backtested results of the MM method? I'm curious at this point.

In one of my earlier posts on here I mentioned that the MM record only goes from 2002 and was wondering how it would do in a 2000-type market. Although this type of approach works well in a bullish market, these same stocks tend to get taken out and shot in a bearish market.

Just an eyeball guessimate (not actually running the numbers thru a portfolio scenario) of the return gives about 30-50% per year since 2002 including clunkers which is very good. Is this close?

One thing that concerns me here is that people post these picks to various message boards and novice investors could end up burying their savings into one stock that tanks, not knowing about position sizing and portfolio management or that they may have to carry around a number of clunkers for a lot longer than 4-6 weeks. I see a lot of traffic on the MM picks threads. I know you're a nice guy MM and way too HUGE to want that to happen to people reading your board.

Good luck everyone.

BTW, I was stopped out of AXR earlier thanks to the stop provided by Spike. If it comes back thru again I might pick it up on the way up. ;)

Margins on the land sales can be cosmetically adjusted simply by selling the properties with the most expensive book values first. That makes good sense from a tax savings perspective although it would limit the earnings.

The only way to know what their land is really worth is to go to the town hall and get the records for who owns what. Then use some sort of real estate mechanism to assess the retail value.

Remember, this city is taking off like crazy. There is zero evidence that would indicate that any growth slowing is occuring. This WILL increase the value of their land holdings. Slam dunk.

lemonjello
07-14-2006, 12:06 AM
Do you seriously believe that they are manipulating earnings down for tax purposes!?! Can you name three serious exchange listed public companies that have manipulated earnings down for tax purposes? LOL.

There is also ZERO evidence that growth is NOT slowing. Are you kidding? Real estate values are tanking all over the Southwestern US. Coming soon to a city near you.

Do you have any idea what your picks have returned per annum in a portfolio? You should know if anyone does. Just give us a ballpark. Inquiring minds want to know!!!



Margins on the land sales can be cosmetically adjusted simply by selling the properties with the most expensive book values first. That makes good sense from a tax savings perspective although it would limit the earnings.

The only way to know what their land is really worth is to go to the town hall and get the records for who owns what. Then use some sort of real estate mechanism to assess the retail value.

Remember, this city is taking off like crazy. There is zero evidence that would indicate that any growth slowing is occuring. This WILL increase the value of their land holdings. Slam dunk.

mrmarket
07-14-2006, 12:32 AM
Do you seriously believe that they are manipulating earnings down for tax purposes!?! Can you name three serious exchange listed public companies that have manipulated earnings down for tax purposes? LOL.

There is also ZERO evidence that growth is NOT slowing. Are you kidding? Real estate values are tanking all over the Southwestern US. Coming soon to a city near you.

Do you have any idea what your picks have returned per annum in a portfolio? You should know if anyone does. Just give us a ballpark. Inquiring minds want to know!!!

Manipulation isn't the correct word. Think of it this way. They are sitting on land that they have sat on for a number of years. They can book whatever earnings they want by selling whatever piece of property they want. There is no more magic to it than that.

I think the demographic data I cited in my write up was very accurate and very current. Rio Rancho is a GROWING city...period.

Of course I know what my stock returns are....and I am quite happy with them.

DSteckler
07-14-2006, 06:55 AM
That's brilliant Dave. If I knew it was going to rain, I would have brought my umbrella to work.

www.weatherchannel.com

mrmarket
07-14-2006, 09:00 AM
www.weatherchannel.com

If your TA is designed to predict short term moves, why didn't it correctly predict AXR's 6% increase the day after I bought it?

DSteckler
07-14-2006, 09:25 AM
If your TA is designed to predict short term moves, why didn't it correctly predict AXR's 6% increase the day after I bought it?

What makes you think it didn't? Using a 30-minute chart, on 7/7 AXR broke back above its 20-bar EMA in the morning. That was a swing-trade buy signal. Near the close there was a bearish divergence between price and the stochastic, which was the exit signal. AXR has remained below the 20-bar EMA ever since.

Lyehopper
07-14-2006, 10:01 AM
What makes you think it didn't? Using a 30-minute chart, on 7/7 AXR broke back above its 20-bar EMA in the morning. That was a swing-trade buy signal. Near the close there was a bearish divergence between price and the stochastic, which was the exit signal. AXR has remained below the 20-bar EMA ever since.
Dave, I'll bet you would ask Ernie why he didn't bring his umbrella to work once you saw the rain falling. Then when he asked you where yours was?.... You'd say that you intentially left it at home 'cause your hair needed washing.

Why don't you tell us when to buy it Dave.... I'll be watching for your detailed TA and buy signal..... Here's my opinion.


http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/386/axr8xs.png (http://imageshack.us)

Lyehopper
07-14-2006, 10:14 AM
Here's my opinion.



http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/386/axr8xs.png (http://imageshack.us)
............. http://new.wavlist.com/tv/007/dangerus.wav :p

mrmarket
07-14-2006, 10:26 AM
What makes you think it didn't? Using a 30-minute chart, on 7/7 AXR broke back above its 20-bar EMA in the morning. That was a swing-trade buy signal. Near the close there was a bearish divergence between price and the stochastic, which was the exit signal. AXR has remained below the 20-bar EMA ever since.


You said you didn't like the pick, yet you could have profited by 6% in one day.

You aren't making much sense today, Dave.

DSteckler
07-14-2006, 11:32 AM
You said you didn't like the pick, yet you could have profited by 6% in one day.

I didn't and I don't, Ernie. It's made a much better short than a long. As a short it's down over 25% since 7/5.

DSteckler
07-14-2006, 11:44 AM
Nice bounce off the 61.8% retracement level, using the 1/12 low and the 6/27 high. A close or two above the 20-bar EMA (30-minute chart, around 41.35) will likely set up a test of the 50% level, around 44.

Lyehopper
07-14-2006, 12:03 PM
I didn't and I don't, Ernie. It's made a much better short than a long. As a short it's down over 25% since 7/5.
When it was up 6% you told Ernie AXR was a "Nice call" on 7/7/06....

Then after it fell on 7/11/06 you said it had fallen....

Then after it rallied two dollars this morning you said it had bounced upward....

Dave you are a pro!.... Yep! Definitly a pro!..... An after-the-fact Pro.... But a pro none-the-less.... http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

Lyehopper
07-14-2006, 12:07 PM
............. http://new.wavlist.com/tv/007/dangerus.wav :p
............. http://new.wavlist.com/tv/027/sf-dangerous.wav

mrmarket
07-14-2006, 12:46 PM
Dave, I'll bet you would ask Ernie why he didn't bring his umbrella to work once you saw the rain falling. Then when he asked you where yours was?.... You'd say that you intentially left it at home 'cause your hair needed washing.

Why don't you tell us when to buy it Dave.... I'll be watching for your detailed TA and buy signal..... Here's my opinion.


http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/386/axr8xs.png (http://imageshack.us)


Lye...

You are a genius. You called that bounce better than Red Auerbach ever could!

lemonjello
07-14-2006, 04:44 PM
Does someone have a link to these backtests?




While I respect your insight, I must add that this, and my track record, has been analyzed and backtested over and over again. Many of these threads are archived in this forum.

diogenes
07-14-2006, 05:23 PM
Does someone have a link to these backtests?


And as a secondary question:
What database was used for the fundamentals?
(Which of course leads to the whole, howdoes one account for the discretionary aspect question)

Lyehopper
07-14-2006, 05:51 PM
Does someone have a link to these backtests?
They're locked away in a vault down at VTP Central.... Webs has the key.

diogenes
07-14-2006, 05:56 PM
They're locked away in a vault down at VTP Central.... Webs has the key.

Haha...most amusing.

Websman
07-14-2006, 08:08 PM
Haha...most amusing.

Amusing but true...

New-born baby
07-14-2006, 10:22 PM
Lye...

You are a genius. You called that bounce better than Red Auerbach ever could!

Let's look at the AXR chart to see what we can expect in the next few weeks. First, AXR has performed exactly as expected on the chart. You can see it here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=58256&postcount=2611). So we here have the expected bounce. But what's likely to happen next? The weekly chart shows us that

1. Another head and shoulders top is forming. We have had enough recent experience with MFLX and BBD and now AXR to know that a head and shoulders top is not a place to take a long, and that the formation should be respected.
2. We also note that the support beneath today's close is very, very thin. It is not going to withstand a hammering.
3. It seems possible that AXR may bounce a little higher here, but it is most likely a false rally heading for lower prices. The rally should stall around $47 or so maximum. Dave may very well be correct in his $44 figure. Usually the right shoulder is lower than the left. His suggestion is probably going to prove to be spot on.

I would conclude that any hope that AXR is going to recover from this fall in Summer or even Fall 2006 is pretty unlikely. Yes, I could be wrong. But the chart, at this point, offers no such hope.

http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/7523/chart10kw.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Runner
07-14-2006, 10:42 PM
NB, you may be correct. Here is my trend read on AXR for what its worth.

Monthly- key reversal with possible tweezer bottom. Last months low needs to hold

Weekly- downward pressure on week of 7/7/06. Stock may be trying to find support off Junes low.

Daily- shows first pull back on 7/10 with trigger short @ 49.35. Trend then accelerated to the downside. Shorts very well may have noticed the support and began to cover today.

Watch for the drifting or possible wedging on the chart. If this occurs with out any bull power this one could give another leg out to the downside. Not to also mention the markets weakness may be setting up for the shorts on the next bounceÖ

Lyehopper
07-15-2006, 03:56 PM
....Another head and shoulders top is forming. We have had enough recent experience with MFLX and BBD and now AXR to know that a head and shoulders top is not a place to take a long, and that the formation should be respected.
It has not formed a right shoulder yet NBB.... And so what if it does, it'll need to move upward to form that shoulder.... AXR can form a right shoulder 11% off the $65 high and still give $$$Mr Market$$$ his 15% gain (thus my prior comment about his entry).... I think he'll get it pretty soon. It bounced quickly off the 61.8% line Friday on double volume.... I like AXR (long) here into the mid $50's and maybe $60. I'm trading it.

New-born baby
07-15-2006, 04:08 PM
It has not formed a right shoulder yet NBB.... And so what if it does, it'll need to move upward to form that shoulder.... AXR can form a right shoulder 11% off the $65 high and still give $$$Mr Market$$$ his 15% gain (thus my prior comment about his entry).... I think he'll get it pretty soon. It bounced quickly off the 61.8% line Friday on double volume.... I like AXR (long) here into the mid $50's and maybe $60. I'm trading it.

Lye,
Well, the right shoulder, if it forms one, has to be less than the head: so you are correct it is possible that AXR will rise to $60. My view is to look at the left shoulder ($47.50 or so), and guessimate the height of the right shoulder. Usually the right shoulder is lower than the left, but not always. A textbook example would be that the right and left shoulders are exactly the same height.

Here's a quote from Stockcharts:
Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.

Here's a quote from www.incademy.com:
The right shoulder is formed by a rally in the price to a level roughly equal with that of the left shoulder. Again it can be slightly higher or lower but definitely below the high achieved by the head.

www.recognia : ***************
Is volume important in a head and shoulders top?

Volume is extremely important for this pattern.

For a head and shoulders top the volume pattern is as follows.

Volume is highest when the left shoulder is forming. In fact, volume is often expanding as the uptrend continues and more and more buyers want to get in.


Volume is lowest on the right shoulder as investors see a reversal happening. Experts say low volume levels on the right shoulder are a strong sign of a reversal.


In the head portion of the price pattern, volume falls somewhere between the strength of the left shoulder and weakness of the right shoulder. Volume often increases when the neckline is broken as the reversal is now complete and downside pressure begins in earnest. In fact, Yager notes that one of the key characteristics she looks for in a Head and Shoulders Top is very high volume on the breakout.
Although volume is important, experts warn us not to get caught up in the precise number of shares being traded.1 What we're looking for are changes in the rate of trading.




What are the details that I should pay attention to in the head and shoulders top?

There are certain characteristics that experts like to see in the pattern.


1. Symmetry - The right and left shoulders should peak at approximately the same price level. In addition, the shoulders are often about the same distance from the head. In other words, there should be about the same amount of time between the development of the top of the left shoulder and the head as between the head and the top of the right shoulder. In the real world, the formation will seldom be perfectly symmetrical. Sometimes one shoulder will be higher than the other or take more time to develop. Experts warn, however, that if a shoulder reaches the level of the head, you're no longer looking at a head and shoulders top. *************


Best wishes with all of your trading, including this one. I am not trading it either long or short.

Lyehopper
07-15-2006, 04:27 PM
Lye,
Well, the right shoulder, if it forms one, has to be less than the head: so you are correct it is possible that AXR will rise to $60......

Best wishes with all of your trading, including this one. I am not trading it either long or short.
Come on!.... Where's your sense of adventure dude?!!!! LOL!

btw.... Great call on 7/10 for the (probable) 61.8% Fib Retracement bounce.... I didn't read the post till you re-posted the link. It reversed within.... What, 16 pennies of your prediction?....You are HUGE NBB!.... AND....Thanks for the TA. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=58256&postcount=2611

New-born baby
07-15-2006, 04:34 PM
Come on!.... Where's your sense of adventure dude?!!!! LOL!

It's old age, Lye. In my old age, I am becoming more and more careful with my trades. :D

lalitha0
07-17-2006, 09:48 PM
News:

Amrep Declares Special 85-Cent Dividend
Monday July 17, 6:41 am ET
Amrep Board Declares Special Dividend of 85 Cents Per Share

PRINCETON, N.J. (AP) -- Amrep Corp. said Monday its board declared a special cash dividend of 85 cents per share, payable Aug. 16 to shareholders of record at July 31.

This dividend follows special cash payouts of 55 cents, 40 cents, and 25 cents per share that were declared following the close of Amrep's last three fiscal years ending April 30, 2005, 2004 and 2003. In addition, the company also paid a special cash dividend of $3.50 per common share at the beginning of 2006.

Amrep's AMREP Southwest Inc. subsidiary is a landholder and real estate developer in New Mexico, and its Kable Media Services Inc. subsidiary distributes magazines to wholesalers and provides subscription fulfillment and related services to publishers and others.

I added more to bring my cost down.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Lalitha :)

studentofthemarket
07-18-2006, 10:40 AM
News:

I added more to bring my cost down.



Lalitha :)

WOW again. I did that once years ago. I'll never buy on the way down ever again. Even though there have been several instances where I'd have done OK in hindsight. I just won't ever do that again.

Your "average" cost, means nothing. The money you put in is what matters.

Good Luck to you.

student

casinoboy3
07-20-2006, 05:24 PM
This stock sucks.... I'm glad I don't own it anymore and I didn't lose another 10% today. I would like to short it.... which leads me to the question... I have an IRA with Ameritrade, it says I must sign up for a margin account before I can do that. What does that entail besides filling out some paperwork? I understand it is basically borrowing money, so I'm assuming its gonna cost me. Is it worth it? Thanks

Lyehopper
07-20-2006, 05:45 PM
This stock sucks.... I'm glad I don't own it anymore and I didn't lose another 10% today. I would like to short it.... which leads me to the question... I have an IRA with Ameritrade, it says I must sign up for a margin account before I can do that. What does that entail besides filling out some paperwork? I understand it is basically borrowing money, so I'm assuming its gonna cost me. Is it worth it? Thanks
You can't trade with margin with an IRA account.

What you need to do is open a separate account that is margin'd.... Then short sell till your heart is content.... I love to short sell personally, it's a lot of fun!

New-born baby
07-20-2006, 06:18 PM
I added more to bring my cost down.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Lalitha :)

Lalitha,
You just got caught in a bull trap. The divy announcement was bait to lead bulls into a trap. Many experts warn that one should never average down. And I would say never buy a momo stock that doesn't have options, because if it loses the momo, there just isn't any help at all.

lemonjello
07-21-2006, 10:23 PM
Considering the high percent - 70% - of insiders in this stock, I wouldn't call it a bull trap (usually something produced by market forces). Special dividends with controlling insiders followed by a drop is suspicious to say the least.

But hey, at least the drop seems to be decelerating.

Is it still on the IBD 100?

Good luck to AXR longs.



Lalitha,
You just got caught in a bull trap. The divy announcement was bait to lead bulls into a trap. Many experts warn that one should never average down. And I would say never buy a momo stock that doesn't have options, because if it loses the momo, there just isn't any help at all.

New-born baby
07-21-2006, 10:30 PM
Just another note to AXR longs: today's action saw AXR fall through another support, and that signals another fall to $30 or lower. The next really substantial support is $24.

Runner
07-21-2006, 10:38 PM
NB, I see possible strong weekly support on AXR around 23.15.

New-born baby
07-22-2006, 08:06 PM
NB, I see possible strong weekly support on AXR around 23.15.

thanks, Runner. You are more exact in stating the support lines than I am. I appreciate it :D

wweeaazz
08-03-2006, 12:30 PM
History shows the 200 dma provides pretty good support. Just thought this thread was looking a little dead.

mrmarket
08-08-2006, 10:10 AM
This stock does not suck...it is making a comeback right now!

DSteckler
08-08-2006, 10:25 AM
Major suckage, Ernie.

jiesen
08-08-2006, 10:41 AM
AXR R0x0R's

PWNT!!@@1

Gatorman
08-08-2006, 10:54 AM
AXR R0x0R's

PWNT!!@@1

For those of us that have no idea what your post means, please translate.

jiesen
08-08-2006, 10:59 AM
For those of us that have no idea what your post means, please translate.

AXR is an excellent stock, surely not bogus at all. It will own all.

jiesen
08-08-2006, 12:09 PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=KBH&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=axr+spf+mth+tol

AXR is indeed on a roll...

mrmarket
08-14-2006, 10:44 AM
up over 3% since Steckler defined AXR as "suckage".

wweeaazz
08-14-2006, 11:40 AM
And i'll have my 15% on this Mr. Market pick.

DSteckler
08-14-2006, 04:03 PM
up over 3% since Steckler defined AXR as "suckage".

Down 20% since MM touted AXR.

mrmarket
08-14-2006, 04:58 PM
Down 20% since MM touted AXR.


so you don't think it will reach my target?

mrmarket
08-16-2006, 09:57 AM
up 7.4% in 8 days since Steckler declared AXR as "suckage"....

wweeaazz
08-17-2006, 09:52 AM
Was i supposed to sell at 15% gain or keep holding?

Karel
08-17-2006, 02:18 PM
A 15% gain is according to $M$'s system, but if you bought one of his picks on a dip, you could reasonably place your target between that 15% and up to $M$'s target. The reason not to go higher is that you are ready for his next pick when he sells AXR. But as always: it's your money, do as you think best.

Regards,

Karel

mrmarket
08-17-2006, 05:03 PM
I'll sell AXR when it reaches my target price....it is up 11.5% in the nine days since DSteckler placed it in his "suckage" portfolio!

New-born baby
08-17-2006, 07:14 PM
I'll sell AXR when it reaches my target price....it is up 11.5% in the nine days since DSteckler placed it in his "suckage" portfolio!

Mr. Market,

I think you would profit handsomely if you could get Dave to place your entire portfolio into his "suckage" portfolio. Dave, could we entice you to look at BEL, FRGB, OFG, TOL, KBH, PRX, CBK, AACE, NUTR, NUS, CNXS, BBD, and MFLX? Your uncanny ability to lift a sagging stock might prove highly valuable for the security and economic interests of the United States. If you can hold the line for a few minutes, I have an incoming call from President Bush along with his economic advisors, and . . . wait, here's something really exciting and usual: Mr. BEARnard BEARnake is on the line! Dave, for the love of country: will you talk to them?

First up, here's the Gov. of Wisconsin:
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/3499/chart3ou5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

mrmarket
08-17-2006, 07:35 PM
LOL...NBB. I could use a little suckage right now.

New-born baby
08-23-2006, 02:31 PM
Wow. AXR has traded only 2.6K shares today, with 1.5 hours to go. Thinly traded stock.

DSteckler
09-06-2006, 03:57 PM
Major suckage today.

studentofthemarket
09-06-2006, 04:26 PM
... shoulda bought IBCA... that was my pick. :)

OTOH, AXR still might recover some day.

student.

mrmarket
09-07-2006, 09:15 AM
might be related to Intel layoffs....not sure if the plant in Rio Rancho is affected.

studentofthemarket
09-07-2006, 10:34 AM
might be related to Intel layoffs....not sure if the plant in Rio Rancho is affected.


I was pretty stunned to see that come out. That's a lot of people. OTOH, I've not read much about the distribution of those layoffs, are they all US. workers or what?

Perhaps they're going to get some more cheap Indian Engineers.


I don't know,

student

lemonjello
09-15-2006, 03:12 PM
Some insider buying going on.

mrmarket
09-18-2006, 10:29 AM
no one mentioned this yet??
================================


AMREP Reports Record First Quarter Results
Wednesday September 13, 6:00 am ET


PRINCETON, N.J., Sept. 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- AMREP Corporation (NYSE: AXR - News) today reported net income of $15,804,000, or $2.38 per share, for its fiscal 2007 first quarter ended July 31, 2006 compared to net income of $5,364,000, or $0.81 per share, in the first quarter of the prior fiscal year. Results for the first quarter of 2007, which set a record for any quarter in the Company's history, were entirely from continuing operations, while last year's results consisted of net income from continuing operations of $1,802,000, or $0.27 per share, and net income from discontinued operations of $3,562,000, or $0.54 per share. Revenues were $58,269,000 in the first quarter this year versus $30,014,000 in the first quarter of fiscal 2006.
Net income from discontinued operations in the first quarter of 2006 reflected the gain from the disposition of the primary assets of the Company's El Dorado, New Mexico water utility subsidiary, which were taken through condemnation proceedings.

Revenues of the Company's AMREP Southwest real estate subsidiary were $37,092,000 in the first quarter of 2007 compared to $7,689,000 in the same quarter last year. This substantial revenue increase was primarily due to increased sales of both developed and undeveloped lots in AMREP Southwest's principal market of Rio Rancho, New Mexico, where interest in the Company's landholdings did not appear to be impacted by the slowdown in housing that has been reported in many parts of the country. Revenues from the sale of developed and undeveloped lots increased from $6,150,000 and $1,259,000 in the first quarter of 2006 to $14,503,000 and $14,694,000 in the same period of 2007. In addition, revenues from the sale of commercial and industrial properties were $3,293,000 in the first three months of 2007 versus no sales of such properties in the first quarter of 2006. The average gross profit percentage on land sales increased from 36% in the first quarter of 2006 to 65% in the same period this year, primarily reflecting a greater proportion of sales of undeveloped lots in the first quarter of 2007. Revenues and related gross profits from land sales can vary significantly from period to period as a result of many factors, including the nature and timing of specific transactions, and prior results are not necessarily a good indication of what may occur in future periods.

First quarter 2007 revenues at AMREP Southwest also included $4,602,000 of interest and other income compared to $280,000 of such revenues in the same period of 2006. This increase was primarily due to $4,107,000 of gain on the sale of certain non-inventory real estate assets, including the Company's office building in Rio Rancho. When the results of these transactions are added to those from land sales, the pretax income contribution from AMREP Southwest increased from $1,729,000 in the first quarter of 2006 to $24,243,000 in the first quarter of 2007.

Revenues of the Company's Kable Media Services subsidiary were $20,827,000 in the first quarter of 2007 compared to $22,155,000 in the same quarter last year. This 6% decrease was the combined result of a $972,000 revenue decline (5%) in Kable's Fulfillment Services segment and a $356,000 revenue decline (10%) in its Newsstand Distribution Services segment. The revenue decline in the Fulfillment Services segment was primarily due to previously-reported customer losses at Kable's Colorado fulfillment operation that occurred in earlier periods but that still affected the comparison with last year's first quarter, while the revenue decrease in the Newsstand Distribution Services segment reflected a modest decrease in the distribution sales volume from existing customers and a decrease in the average commission rate earned by Kable, partly offset by commissions earned under a distribution arrangement with a new publisher client that commenced in the fourth quarter of 2006. Media Services operating expenses decreased by $343,000 (2%) in the first quarter of 2007 compared to the same period of 2006, primarily due to decreased expenses in the Fulfillment Services segment relating in part to reductions in variable expenses, including payroll and benefits. As a result of these factors, the pretax income contribution from Media Services decreased from $1,099,000 in the first quarter of 2006 to $596,000 in the first quarter of 2007.

AMREP Corporation's AMREP Southwest Inc. subsidiary is a major landholder and leading developer of real estate in New Mexico, and its Kable Media Services, Inc. subsidiary distributes magazines to wholesalers and provides subscription fulfillment and related services to publishers and others.



AMREP Corporation
and Subsidiaries
Financial Highlights
(Unaudited)

Three Months Ended July 31,
2006 2005
Revenues $58,269,000 $30,014,000

Net income:
Continuing operations $15,804,000 $1,802,000
Discontinued operations - 3,562,000
$15,804,000 $5,364,000

Earnings per share - Basic and Diluted:
Continuing operations $2.38 $0.27
Discontinued operations - 0.54
$2.38 $0.81

Weighted average number of common shares
outstanding 6,644,000 6,626,000

mrmarket
09-18-2006, 10:31 AM
"Revenue during the quarter grew to $58.3 million from $30 million. The company, which also develops land, said revenue from its Southwest real estate subsidiary skyrocketed to $37.1 million from $7.69 million on increased sales of developed and undeveloped lots in Amrep's principal market of Rio Rancho, N.M. Amrep said interest in its landholdings did not appear to be hurt by the housing slowdown in other markets."

Hany
09-18-2006, 11:02 AM
Up 6% right now. Who said that markets are efficient?

mrmarket
09-18-2006, 02:18 PM
Major suckage, Ernie.

up 21% in the six weeks since this call was made...

ringo69
09-18-2006, 02:43 PM
Sold today for 17% gain. Mr. Market you are HUGE!

New-born baby
09-18-2006, 02:48 PM
up 21% in the six weeks since this call was made...

Just noticed that AXR hit $47.83 today, which is the resistance of the previous left shoulder. AXR needs to take out that high with volume to be out of danger. It could be setting up for a real nice short right here. This one bears watching closely.

DSteckler
09-18-2006, 03:39 PM
up 21% in the six weeks since this call was made...

Now it's down only 5.5% since you bought it, Ernie.

dpchamp87
09-18-2006, 05:01 PM
Should be around $57; long way to go...

mrmarket
09-26-2006, 10:25 AM
Look at that little monkey go!

Rob
09-26-2006, 10:39 AM
Look at that little monkey go!

Reminds of a controversial comment that got ...


http://www.gamertagpics.com/messages/THEASSKICKER/Howard%20Cosell.jpg


... into a world of hot water. :)

peanuts
09-26-2006, 01:04 PM
What's the tally from the major suckage post? That was hilarious! :D

Dave has had some really great ideas... PCCC to name one. :)

New-born baby
10-02-2006, 10:06 AM
Let's see . . . just want to check the markets this morning.
Hmmm . . . I see that ASR is doing some major suckage this morning as it is up $2.33. Man, what a great call!

mrmarket
10-02-2006, 10:34 AM
Up 33% since declaration of suckage..

jiesen
10-02-2006, 01:44 PM
and up 10% so far just today! AXR is HUGE!!!

at this rate, we could have not only one, but two winners pop tomorrow morning!

mrmarket
10-02-2006, 02:41 PM
and up 10% so far just today! AXR is HUGE!!!

at this rate, we could have not only one, but two winners pop tomorrow morning!

you sees?.....

threadogie
10-02-2006, 02:57 PM
IBD #14 a Mr. Market summer pocket rocket blasts off!:D

New-born baby
10-02-2006, 03:01 PM
IBD #14 a Mr. Market summer pocket rocket blasts off!:D
Short it tomorrow?

hilss
10-02-2006, 03:02 PM
up 15% today alone!!!!!!! huge is an understatement.

bigbear
10-02-2006, 03:26 PM
Holy cow!! What's the story on Amrep today. I've been suffering thru the May June slump and did a little double down at low 40's (thank goodness). Just bailed this after at better than 19% and could have even done another % if I didn't panic :)

Anyone know what's caused the big rise today? I could find no current news. Is it time to short it now?

bigbear

jiesen
10-02-2006, 03:55 PM
Holy cow!! What's the story on Amrep today. I've been suffering thru the May June slump and did a little double down at low 40's (thank goodness). Just bailed this after at better than 19% and could have even done another % if I didn't panic :)

Anyone know what's caused the big rise today? I could find no current news. Is it time to short it now?

bigbear

The story is, AXR is HUGE!!!!!!! I just sold my shares for about a 14% profit. I'm not waiting for 15% tomorrow, I'll take what I'm given today, and if it goes back to 51 I might just take another stab at it.

Thanks again for yet another AWESOME pick, $$MM!!! You ROCK!

bigbear
10-02-2006, 04:20 PM
Maybe we can short tomorrow and cover and buy in again at $50 to $51?

bigbear

Karel
10-02-2006, 05:12 PM
Maybe we can short tomorrow and cover and buy in again at $50 to $51?
I am going to sell at 57.45 and sit pretty for the next HUGE $$$Mr.Market$$$ pick. My choice. Do what you like, it is your money. I really would appreciate it if the Huge One would not go out to drink a beer or play a round of golf (or both) this time. :)

Regards,

Karel

New-born baby
10-02-2006, 05:34 PM
I am going to sell at 57.45 and sit pretty for the next HUGE $$$Mr.Market$$$ pick. My choice. Do what you like, it is your money. I really would appreciate it if the Huge One would not go out to drink a beer or play a round of golf (or both) this time. :)

Regards,

Karel

I agree with the next hugest huge one around here :D

Websman
10-02-2006, 07:47 PM
Have you sold yet Huge One? Huh? Huh?? Huh???

jiesen
10-03-2006, 12:48 PM
It's back over 57 again, within spitting distance of your target, $$MM! You may want to be by your computer for the next hour or so.

jiesen
10-03-2006, 12:52 PM
just a nickel to go now...

New-born baby
10-03-2006, 01:06 PM
HELLO! YooooHoooo! Mr. Market! Wake up. It's time to sell your AXR now :D

jiesen
10-03-2006, 01:11 PM
HELLO! YooooHoooo! Mr. Market! Wake up. It's time to sell your AXR now :D

yep. Target achieved. Price is now 57.5

Karel
10-03-2006, 01:19 PM
I am out, too. And you guys (and gals) might watch the header...

Regards,

Karel

jiesen
10-09-2006, 10:30 PM
Up 33% since declaration of suckage..

AXR hit 62 on Monday... how much longer until the suckage position hits -100%?

jiesen
10-16-2006, 09:32 PM
AXR hit 62 on Monday... how much longer until the suckage position hits -100%?

with AXR at 66 this Monday, the suckage indicator is goin' Berzerk

New-born baby
10-16-2006, 10:02 PM
with AXR at 66 this Monday, the suckage indicator is goin' Berzerk

Yeah, AXR has had a nice run, but I think she's getting pretty ripe for a pretty strong pullback, don't you think?

jiesen
10-16-2006, 10:43 PM
Yeah, AXR has had a nice run, but I think she's getting pretty ripe for a pretty strong pullback, don't you think?

yeah, I would probably sell it now if I still had it... though what happens tomorrow is anybody's guess. at some point the stock will pull back- they almost always do. nevertheless, at $35 this stock was an incredible value, and one could have had almost a double by buying and holding it from the end of July until now.

spikefader
10-17-2006, 10:21 AM
Yeah, AXR has had a nice run, but I think she's getting pretty ripe for a pretty strong pullback, don't you think?Probably....but look at that reaction to the 2nd triangle break and test of trendline support!

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/8587/2618wm3.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/2857/8029ni8.gif (http://imageshack.us)

jiesen
10-18-2006, 10:26 PM
AXR is now officially a double from the lows at the end of July.
A short from below $36 will now show a -100% return. wiped out. ruined...

now that's what I call suckage.:cramersmiley:

bsideindy
10-20-2006, 10:28 AM
I really like this stock. I was in at 47, out at 66. Now with the pullback, I'm wondering what a good re-entry point would be? Maybe 52? I don't know anything about TA.

New-born baby
10-20-2006, 10:42 AM
I really like this stock. I was in at 47, out at 66. Now with the pullback, I'm wondering what a good re-entry point would be? Maybe 52? I don't know anything about TA.

Most folk would tell you not to fall in love with a stock. Made some good $$$ off of AXR? Leave it alone for a good long while. She is overbought, imo. :D

spikefader
10-20-2006, 11:15 AM
I really like this stock. I was in at 47, out at 66. Now with the pullback, I'm wondering what a good re-entry point would be? Maybe 52? I don't know anything about TA.Weekly gap at 49.44 is major support area, plus there's pattern support for it......

http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/5301/9389vt0.gif

But I do agree with newborn....take the money and sit on hands for the next great opportunity. This one might search for that lower triangle support, so if one does buy the gap, logical stop is tight under it.

http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/9233/axroct20cl5.gif (http://imageshack.us)

bsideindy
10-20-2006, 12:31 PM
thanks guys!

New-born baby
10-20-2006, 01:34 PM
thanks guys!

I think AXR is going to become a piece of burnt toast :D

lemonjello
10-20-2006, 05:53 PM
Due to the small float AXR can move in a light breeze. Up and Down.

threadogie
11-13-2006, 12:16 PM
Mr. Market sure can pick them, let your winner run. Now 73+ after the shakeout brakeout with a PE still around 13. Headed to 100. yeehaw!:)

jiesen
11-14-2006, 11:22 PM
Mr. Market sure can pick them, let your winner run. Now 73+ after the shakeout brakeout with a PE still around 13. Headed to 100. yeehaw!:)

and 83 today... holy suckage Batman! At this rate it'll get to 100 by Thursday.

casinoboy3
11-30-2006, 02:10 PM
I think AXR is going to become a piece of burnt toast :D

reached a high of almost 93 yesterday...

New-born baby
11-30-2006, 03:20 PM
reached a high of almost 93 yesterday...

Yes, I can be wrong. Today I sold AOB at $10.04 and it ran up to $10.59 afterwards. Yup. I can be wrong.

jiesen
12-05-2006, 11:10 AM
reached a high of almost 93 yesterday...

And 99 today! Boy, does AXR suck!

threadogie
12-05-2006, 11:16 AM
this week #1 @ IBD 100, +21% since my last post past the 73.80 buy pt after the shakeout rebound. Company is buying Palm Coast Data, a publishing services firm for $92 million. Only 1.7 million outstanding so throw SpiKe's TA out the window. Heehaw.

mrmarket
12-05-2006, 11:35 AM
You sees? I was right. It's all about the land....

jiesen
12-15-2006, 10:16 PM
And 99 today! Boy, does AXR suck!

Another couple weeks, another $30 up. Holy mackarel, this thing is unstoppable!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AXR&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

mrmarket
01-03-2007, 10:41 PM
you're taking a vicious pounding on this stock. I'm not sure whether ernie slept through the lectures on Opportunity cost or what. But while he argues with DSteckler over his track record he's holding many positions that are under water in a HUGE way. That's money that could have been protected with a stop and redeployed in a better investment. If you have enough money you can buy any and all stocks and merely wait for them to go up. Then just sell when they do, and hold the rest forever no matter how low they go, and believe you are beating the market like a gong.

preservation of capital should be a primary concern for anybody that wants to work in the stock market. If you don't have any money you can't buy anything. I've gotten shaken out of a few stocks in the last year. Some that went on to bigger gains. WIRE and IBCA to name a couple. I didn't make as much as I might have over 17% or so on each, but I didn't lose any money either.

But given what is happening around the world right now, and think this stock is not only going to recover but then gain that much in 4-6 weeks is really wishful thinking IMHO. A wider war in the middle east is going to hurt everybody.


student

you were saying?

jiesen
01-03-2007, 10:46 PM
you were saying?

What, do you mean that the war in the Middle East didn't destroy the value of the land in Rio Rancho, New Mexico? Inconceivable!

mrmarket
01-04-2007, 12:11 AM
I wasn't picking on Studentofthemarket or even Steckler...but if you want to dish it out, you ought to be able to stick around and take it too.

studentofthemarket
01-04-2007, 02:27 PM
I wasn't picking on Studentofthemarket or even Steckler...but if you want to dish it out, you ought to be able to stick around and take it too.

>>> my comment WRITTEN ON 7-13-2006 WAS....
But given what is happening around the world right now, and think this stock is not only going to recover but then gain that much in 4-6 weeks is really wishful thinking IMHO. A wider war in the middle east is going to hurt everybody.<<<,

Which for the record was written a good while back. And we didn't know then what we know now.

we didn't have a wider war in the Middle East, I suppose that might not be obvious. So once that didn't happen, my concern then isn't a concern any more.


OTOH, if you want to gloat about how you sold that stock way too soon, to help you achieve overall index performance on your portfolio, that is an option for you.

I'm a trailing stop guy now. Sure I've gotten shaken out. but I won't experience another 5 bucks to 55 bucks runup only to see it drop back to 15 bucks again.

happy new year one and all

student

mrmarket
08-24-2007, 04:24 PM
seems to be bouncing off of a floor now...boy what a value at this price!! Who's got big balls?