The Independence Day Data Dump

[mrmarket]

Proud to be an American? How about making some good old American money on one of these fine stocks...


ABAX ABFS ABI ACR ADS AEOS AKAM ALJ AMX ANDE ANN ARD ARP ASFI AXR BAMM BAP BAS BHI BLK BLKB BOOM BOT BPT BRG BRLI BWP CATG CBG CCDC CELG CG CHAP CHH CHIC CHRW CLB CLDN CLMT CMI CNX COLB CRDN CRS CRV CSX CTCI CTRN CTS CTSH CTXS CWTR CXG CYBS DAKT DBRN DDE DIOD DRQ DSW EDP EGY EMCI ENS ETP EXPD EZPW FAL FCFS FLAG FMD FORM FSBK FSTR FTI FTO GATT.PK GDI GES GFIG GG GLG GMTC GOL GOOG GRMN GWR GYMB HANS HBHC HITT HLF HMSY HSR HUBG HWCC IAAC IBCA ICE ICLR IDCC ININ INT IRCE.PK ISE ITG ITRI JCOM JCP JLL JOBS JOYG KEX KMG KNAP KNOT LBIX LECO LFC LIFC LMS LRCX LVS MAN MCRI MED MGRP.OB MIKR MINI MVK MVMK.PK NEU NPSI NSS NTES NTG ODFL OII OMNI PCAR PCU PLCE PLLL PMTI PNFP PQ PRXI PSPT PTQMF.OB PTRY PWEI R RES RNWK RSAS RSTI SA SAFT SBUX SCSS SCST SEYE.OB SHG SIRO SMSI SNBI SPSS STRL SWFT SYX SZE TEX TGIS TLG TRBS TRMA TSAI TSCM TSO TTI TWGP TXU UACL UARM UCO UVIH.OB VCBI VIVO VLLY VOL VTNC WAB WCC WEBX WHQ WRLD XPRSA XTXI ZUMZ ZVXI

Tell me which one you like and why...I'll have my top 5 out soon.

[Rob]

Maybe these one-year charts will help you decide which ones look good to you (it's a 645k graphic file so it may take a couple seconds to load the first time):

http://img437.imageshack.us/img437/3478/idd6bo.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Karel]

I ran a top 3 today and got LECO, KNOT and DRQ. I'll pick LECO.

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Mr.Market,
I'm high on TTI and here's why.

One of the best performing stocks in the oil and gas equipment services division of the energy sector , it's weighted alpha is +125.76 over average for the group.
YTD price is up 98.82% and for the past 12 months 185.77%. Over 3 years it averages +64.72% gain.

3 year eps---56.78%
3 year total growth--359.70%
est. next year sales growth --28%
est. next year eps. growth----29%
MSN stockscouter rating---10
barchart medium & longterm indicators---100% buy
rated as a very safe investment
Vectorvest likes it so much it would marry it if possible
is on Doug's (IIC) watchlist
---------billyjoe

[Rob]

I think SAFT is an unbelievable value at 6.8 x earnings. Just look at how their sales and earnings have been growing:

http://img354.imageshack.us/img354/4058/saft4ya.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Also, the chart is showing an unmistakable uptrend over the past year with a strong, bullish MACD cross-over just a couple days ago:

http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/2123/saft6aa.gif (http://imageshack.us)

I'll go with SAFT.

I am huge! No autographs, please.

[Rob]

Here's another chart on why I like SAFT:

http://img319.imageshack.us/img319/5489/saft8hm.gif (http://imageshack.us)


Shoot, at 6.8 x earnings, you could buy it and then sell it when the P/E runs "all the way" up to 12x, and if the earnings are the same as they are today, the sale price would be 83.64, a 76% increase over today's 47.54 close! I really hate insurance companies, and that's probably one of the best reasons to own part of one.

[billyjoe]

Rob,
Like you , I'm not thrilled by the insurance industry. My mother had a small met life policy that she cancelled and by some quirk of fate , when it went public she got 25 shares for nothing. She was just within the cutoff date. I told her to get rid of it and take the money,but she holds on to stocks and now it's worth almost twice her GM stock , go figure.
---------billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Nice looking pick, Rob. I do note a few facts to be considered:
1. $50 is all-time high, and that was just eight weeks ago. That means
SAFT must bust through $50 resistance, or else its a double top, and
that is bearish. Don't get me wrong: it could smash through the
barrier, but I am just noting that it is there.
2. PnF has a target of $53, which is less than 15% from the current
price.
3. It has no option chain, so I won't trade this one. UGH!
But the chart looks very nice:
http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/1171/chart11eb.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

1. LECO has a bullish chart and an $81 target (currently $60). That's nice.
2. It also has a very recent bull flag and retest today. In other words, Wednesday would be a great day to buy this stock!
3. She's already trading at an all-time high and has no overhead resistance to worry about! NICE!
http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/3964/chart12pg.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[IIC]

Some nice looking ones there Ernie...But it wasn't hard for me to choose...First one...ABAX...Why???... Because it was listed first...I own it and I could use a 15% gain right now.

But seriously, I'll wait for your trimmed down list before I make a choice...Best, Doug(IIC)

[Peter Hansen]

GYMB great chart.....good concept........and is has been hitting 52 week highs ...

[spikefader]

Filtered your dump tonight Mr.M and wow, what a tough job to narrow it down to 10 let alone one. But my favorite is FAL.

The fully filtered Creme of the Crop are FAL, LBIX, FTO, EGY, CHRW, ADS, TXU, GRMN, CELG AND LVS. This will be a featured port in the parabolic site as soon as I get that up and running again (hopefully tonight).

Great dump though! Good luck with whichever gem you go with!

[spikefader]

Filtered your dump tonight Mr.M and wow, what a tough job to narrow it down to 10 let alone one. But my favorite is FAL.

The fully filtered Creme of the Crop are FAL, LBIX, FTO, EGY, CHRW, ADS, TXU, GRMN, CELG AND LVS. This will be a featured port in the parabolic site as soon as I get that up and running again (hopefully tonight).

Great dump though! Good luck with whichever gem you go with!
http://www.parabolicstockpicks.com/index.php/archives/category/mrmarket-stocks/
(http://www.parabolicstockpicks.com/index.php/archives/category/mrmarket-stocks/)
OK, the Parabolic site is back on line after that little host issue, and there's the link for the MM filtered port tonight. Some great looking charts in there and expectations are high.

[Rob]

I appreciate your feedback on the SAFT chart, New-born. Now allow me to make a case for SAFT vs. LECO if I may. Again I want to emphasize the P/E ratio.

When you buy a stock, you're buying future earnings. Some stocks have utterly phenomenal growth rates and can therefore support high P/E ratios. But as that growth slows the P/E ratio must follow suit. I think you already know this; I'm saying it for the benefit of those reading here who may not.

As you can see from these comparison graphs, SAFT's Y-O-Y and Q-O-Q earnings-per-share growth rates are more than twice that of LECO on average.

http://img83.imageshack.us/img83/9282/comp5vh.gif (http://imageshack.us)

According to MSN's Moneycentral Web site, LECO's P/E ratio is 19.4 vs. SAFT's at 6.8. So the bottom line is that in choosing LECO over SAFT, one would buying less than half the growth at nearly three times the price. It's like paying $2.85 for a cup of coffee less than half full vs. paying $1.00 for a full cup. Which would you buy?

[Peter Hansen]

Guys I love your stock analyses......it really helps me in my own stock analysis.....Great minds thinking together will reap greater results !

[New-born baby]

I appreciate your feedback on the SAFT chart, New-born. Now allow me to make a case for SAFT vs. LECO if I may. Again I want to emphasize the P/E ratio.
According to MSN's Moneycentral Web site, LECO's P/E ratio is 19.4 vs. SAFT's at 6.8. So the bottom line is that in choosing LECO over SAFT, one would buying less than half the growth at nearly three times the price. It's like paying $2.85 for a cup of coffee less than half full vs. paying $1.00 for a full cup. Which would you buy?

Rob,
I like your analysis; I'm impressed with your work. And I do like SAFY's chart for the present up to the double top. (I'll like it even more if it busts the resistance at the double top :D). I think it is worth a long right here :D

But my biggest difference between LECO and SAFY is that while SAFTY MAY make a chart formation that says "higher prices past the double top," LECO already has a riper chart with bigger target.

[Websman]

If this is truly the beginning of another uptrend in the market, I would say that just about anyone of Mr Markets huge picks should make money.

[billyjoe]

Spike,
Nice list but am having trouble finding AND.

----------billyjoe

[spikefader]

lol ya, thanks for picking that up billyjoe! For anyone who hasn't realized already, disregard that 'and' word; cuz it's a word and not a ticker :D billyjoe

[billyjoe]

My top 5 would be : TTI, FAL , FTO , TXU , LECO . FTO is in 3rd place in the celebrity division of the Pick of the Year Contest up 70.35% since Jan. 3rd.
------------billyjoe

[IIC]

Spike,
Nice list but am having trouble finding AND.

----------billyjoe


Maybe they changed it to THE

[billyjoe]

This is such a well formed aromatic dump the more you check into it you realize there's got to be 25 really great picks here. If I had the $$ to buy them all I would.

---------billyjoe

[skiracer]

I like MED. Have been trading in an out of it a few times of late. Looks to me to be getting ready for a decent move back above recent highs.

http://img376.imageshack.us/img376/7918/med6tu.png (http://imageshack.us)

Some nice stuff going on with revenues, earnings, and growth percentages over last qtrs. and years.

http://img372.imageshack.us/img372/6689/med27wj.png (http://imageshack.us)

[billyjoe]

Ski,
MED is another good one. I think the second dip in the chart came after stocklemon's comments which really wasn't anything like the goods they may have on HOM . They just thought MED was overvalued compared to others in the group. Maybe they wanted to short something for a few days.
---------billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Independence Day Dump stocks also appearing on barcharts 100 best stocks based on 1 year performance :AKAM CHAP CLDN DAKT DDE DRQ EGY EZPW
FAL FSTR GMTC HANS HSR IAAC ININ KNOT LBIX LFC MED NEU NTG OII OMNI PWEI SA SMSI TGIS TSCM TTI VOL XPRSA ZUMZ ZVXI

------------billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Independence Day Dump Stocks also appearing on MSN top 50 : ABFS ACR BRLI CHIC CMI CTCI CTS CTSH FAL FLAG-------FAL is the only stock appearing on all lists

----------billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

I like LMS....

[billyjoe]

Beware of lists ! Jim Jubak's List of 50 best stocks in the world with little risk has contained by his own admission : Enron , WorldCom , and Asia Pulp and Paper which was delisted.

----------billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Lye,
LMS ! ! I'm going to tell my aunt Agnes . She was executive secretary for Lamson Sessions working there I believe from 1938 - 1983 in Cleveland. She's 88 now and LMS has virtually changed it's entire product line in the last few years. She had a lot of stock at one time .Hope she didn't sell out during the bad years.
---------billyjoe

[mimo_100]

I ran my MSN high percent screener against the dump and here are the stocks that
were in both:

CCDC,DSW,EZPW,HMSY,ININ,NTG,OMNI,WRLD

I then ranked these and ININ ranked the highest.

--Tim

[Rob]

I then ranked these and ININ ranked the highest.I think Mel Tillis likes it too. ;)

[Gatorman]

Am going with a stock I have played several times over the past month in my personal portfolio. I also used it twice as my POTW pick. BRLI is my choice.

[peanuts]

Mr. Market,

You should pick either CHAP or NSS

I like the industry. Notice that steel has the biggest presence in your dump :D

Your final pick will be interesting

[diogenes]

For the “lazy” amongst us, i.e., me, is there any chance that the larger scans could be uploaded as .xls files?
Maybe they are and I just overlooked it?

[mimo_100]

For the “lazy” amongst us, i.e., me, is there any chance that the larger scans could be uploaded as .xls files?
Maybe they are and I just overlooked it?

Dio,

I just rope off the selection, then edit | “paste special” into excel. Choose text,
then the text import wizard will be available. The default delimiter is spaces, so just
keep clicking next until the finish button appears, then click finish.

The selection will populate the entire row. To put them in columns, just select the row, then edit | copy, then highlight a cell to copy to, then edit | “paste special”, then choose transpose. The entries will be running down in the column you selected.

Tim

[diogenes]

Thanks!
That is great.

[Rob]

As of about a half hour ago the dump's top 5 gainers today are: PRXI, MIKR, LBIX, TLG and HWCC.
The bottom 5 are: FORM, PWEI, AXR, KNOT and EGY.

[Rob]

In case anyone would like to know, here's a list of how the stocks from the Independence Day data dump are doing since the open on July 5. Those highlighted in yellow are Ernie's top 5 plus those single picks from the various forum participants:

http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/6383/dump6ra.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Robert,
Very nice work! But you know what came to my mind? MM's top picks averaged in the red, just like POTW.

[jiesen]

Robert,
Very nice work! But you know what came to my mind? MM's top picks averaged in the red, just like POTW.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EIXIC&t=5d

NBB, don't you mean: "...just like POTW, and the market in general over that time period." Let's take another look in 4-6 weeks and see if the top 5 beats the market or not, shall we?

[New-born baby]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EIXIC&t=5d

NBB, don't you mean: "...just like POTW, and the market in general over that time period." Let's take another look in 4-6 weeks and see if the top 5 beats the market or not, shall we?

Yes, I do mean "just like POTW and the markets in general over the last week." You are correcto! :D

What I am trying to say is that even good stocks suffered over this time period, and I am trying to point out how difficult it is to win POTW. We've been discussing on this forum that POTW hasn't produced an overall average profit. Rob's post points out that MM's top 200 stocks didn't produce an overall average winning percentage in a week, either. That doesn't mean MM is a bad stock picker; it means that just picking the top 200 stocks doesn't mean you are going to average a winning percentage in a week's time. POTW is not an easy thing to win, or even produce a winner, each week.

[DSteckler]

Ernst! Someone's selling off your stock this morning.

[New-born baby]

Ernst! Someone's selling off your stock this morning.

Dave,
Did you happen to notice that AXR is declining on huge volume? In the first 45 minutes of trading it exceeding average daily volume.

[DSteckler]

Sure did, NB. I wonder if someone put out a sell recommendation on another chat board?

[New-born baby]

Sure did, NB. I wonder if someone put out a sell recommendation on another chat board?

lol lol lol lol

[Websman]

Mr Market will get the last laugh... AXR will become yet another consecutive winner.

[studentofthemarket]

Just how are people using the word consecutive around here?

I thought I just read where the huge one sold a stock that he'd held on for 4 years. how does that jive with BBD which he just bought and is in the toilet? Oh wait it is only a "trade" when he sells?

Granted a trade is a round trip. But come on... buy any 50 stocks and just sell them someday in the future when they are higher than when you bought isn't exactly uber stock picking.

I guess peeps around here just have tons of cash so that being down 25% isn't a big deal.

scrounging for aluminum cans....

[billyjoe]

student,
I would urge you to study this forum for some time before coming to a hasty conclusion. The knowledge available here at no cost to you should prove to be invaluable in the future.
---------billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Just how are people using the word consecutive around here?

I thought I just read where the huge one sold a stock that he'd held on for 4 years. how does that jive with BBD which he just bought and is in the toilet? Oh wait it is only a "trade" when he sells?

Granted a trade is a round trip. But come on... buy any 50 stocks and just sell them someday in the future when they are higher than when you bought isn't exactly uber stock picking.

I guess peeps around here just have tons of cash so that being down 25% isn't a big deal.

scrounging for aluminum cans....

Hey, did you know that clean copper wire fetches $3 per pound up here in the cold North?

[lemonjello]

Hope it turns around tomorrow. It's going the wrong way. Got my stop in tho.

Mr Market will get the last laugh... AXR will become yet another consecutive winner.

[mrmarket]

Just how are people using the word consecutive around here?

I thought I just read where the huge one sold a stock that he'd held on for 4 years. how does that jive with BBD which he just bought and is in the toilet? Oh wait it is only a "trade" when he sells?

Granted a trade is a round trip. But come on... buy any 50 stocks and just sell them someday in the future when they are higher than when you bought isn't exactly uber stock picking.

I guess peeps around here just have tons of cash so that being down 25% isn't a big deal.

scrounging for aluminum cans....

81 of the 82 winners outperformed the overall market during the same time period that the stocks were held during the trade. So my question then is, "If anyone can do it, why isn't EVERYONE doing it???"

[skiracer]

81 of the 82 winners outperformed the overall market during the same time period that the stocks were held during the trade. So my question then is, "If anyone can do it, why isn't EVERYONE doing it???"

I'm up close to 40% for the year so far. Mostly on the ETF side where it's runniing around 23/25% range an on the stocks side about 13/15% The one big thing is that none of my capital is tied up in any stocks that are lagging or down. Everything in the trading portfolio is above my initial entry price.
I thought this latest group of 5 were nice but didn't like AXR at all for the low daily average volume. 38/39000 shares traded a day is just to little volume for me and yesterday's fall on 140.000 shares was a prime example of how volitaile those low volume stocks can be. These last two days are a prime example of what I am talking about. Hoping it goes well but can't escape the volitaility of those low volume picks.

[New-born baby]

I'm up close to 40% for the year so far. Mostly on the ETF side where it's runniing around 23/25% range an on the stocks side about 13/15% The one big thing is that none of my capital is tied up in any stocks that are lagging or down. Everything in the trading portfolio is above my initial entry price.
I thought this latest group of 5 were nice but didn't like AXR at all for the low daily average volume. 38/39000 shares traded a day is just to little volume for me and yesterday's fall on 140.000 shares was a prime example of how volitaile those low volume stocks can be. These last two days are a prime example of what I am talking about. Hoping it goes well but can't escape the volitaility of those low volume picks.

And don't forget: no options to offer any help at all.

[skiracer]

And don't forget: no options to offer any help at all.

No options wouldn't necessarily stop me from entering a position but the low volume is another thing and big at that in my opinion. It didn't take many shares yesterday to move it as much as it did. So yesterday was almost 3 1/2 times average volume. Had to be considered a big distribution day proportionally. It doesn't take much to move them in either direction. But when they are going up no one considers that they drop just as easily and quickly. Yesterday was a prime example of that volitaility in low volume stocks regardless of their value.

[Rob]

This past week was bloody awful in the market. If anyone's interested in how the stocks from the Independence Day data dump have done since July 5, here you go ...

http://img239.imageshack.us/img239/199/chartvi8.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Rob,
Thanks for the nice post. Yes, it was very bloody. And to think that 7 stocks "outperformed" [i.e., lower] AXR since the dump. Someday you'd think several of these charts will set up long soon.

Last on the list right now is TGIS.
TGIS: was $15.84, now $10.56, current target=$4.50

Not yet ripe for a long.

[nrugby]

Cud U Tel Me How And Which Wesites Offer To C The Charts On A Weekly Basis As U Posted For All The Stocks At Once.

Thanks In Advance

[New-born baby]

Cud U Tel Me How And Which Wesites Offer To C The Charts On A Weekly Basis As U Posted For All The Stocks At Once.

Thanks In Advance

I don't know where to go to see all the charts at the same time, but you can view 10 at once at http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/

[studentofthemarket]

This past week was bloody awful in the market. If anyone's interested in how the stocks from the Independence Day data dump have done since July 5, here you go ...




Good old IBCA. I'm still pissed about that stock. I got stopped out when that odd plunge happened. My original buy point was 29.40. GRRRRRR But it was my choice for the HUGE fab FEW.


student

[nrugby]

let me know which website did u use to post the weekly charts for independeence data dump.

thanks

[Rob]

let me know which website did u use to post the weekly charts for independeence data dump.

thanksHeya, nrugby, I didn't use any Web site. You know why? 'Cause as far as I know there isn't one you can do that on. I used my own ingenuity to come up with a way to do that. You know why? 'Cause I'm huge! That's why. Bring me your finest wines and spirits.

[Rob]

Hi, boys and girls. Another week has gone by, so I thought I'd once again bring you another update as to how the data dump stocks have done since the open on July 5. I've tried to account for those that have split (such as HANS) but if you notice any I've missed, please post it here. I would like to point out that out of 200 stocks in the dump, old Rob zeroed in on one (SAFT) that has outperformed 97% of the others in the 13 trading days that have transpired. Make of that what you will.

http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/627/dumpba3.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Rob]

Among the stocks in the Independence Day data dump, here are the top twenty best performing stocks last week only (i.e. since closing prices on 7/14):
01 CHIC
02 IAAC
03 EMCI
04 FLAG
05 SCST
06 PNFP
07 IBCA
08 BRLI
09 AMX
10 PTQMF
11 ISE
12 GFIG
13 RNWK
14 HSR
15 DAKT
16 HMSY
17 SAFT
18 SZE
19 BOT
20 ABI
And here are what the 5-day charts look like:
http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/5861/dumpuf5.png (http://imageshack.us)

[billyjoe]

Rob,
I wonder how many of the top 20 could have been picked by the chartists.
----------billyjoe

[Rob]

Rob,
I wonder how many of the top 20 could have been picked by the chartists.... or anybody for that matter. You see anything in those 5-day charts that looks particularly interesting? Anyone? I kind of like the looks of that IAAC and will be watching what it does on Monday. I haven't checked fundamental number one on that company yet, but that chart certainlny looks to be saying something.

[New-born baby]

... or anybody for that matter. You see anything in those 5-day charts that looks particularly interesting? Anyone? I kind of like the looks of that IAAC and will be watching what it does on Monday. I haven't checked fundamental number one on that company yet, but that chart certainlny looks to be saying something.

IAAC says that its good for another $3 pop. That's what is says :D

Thanks for the good work, Robert!

[lemonjello]

Good call on IAAC.

In order - SCST,IAAC,BRLI,RNWK. All the rest pointing down.

SCST looks very interesting for next few months.

On a positive note - looks like MFLX could be moving up in a month or so...

... or anybody for that matter. You see anything in those 5-day charts that looks particularly interesting? Anyone? I kind of like the looks of that IAAC and will be watching what it does on Monday. I haven't checked fundamental number one on that company yet, but that chart certainlny looks to be saying something.

[spikefader]

Rob,
I wonder how many of the top 20 could have been picked by the chartists.
----------billyjoe
... but my favorite is FAL.
I can only claim one billyjoe.

And the port average for the Creme of the Crop is -9.22% as of Friday's close. Not so Cremey this dump.

[New-born baby]

I can only claim one billyjoe.

And the port average for the Creme of the Crop is -9.22% as of Friday's close. Not so Cremey this dump.

Creme of the Crop has experienced total crop failure before. That's why I like to have a little crop insurance. I won't buy any momo picks that don't have a chain around their necks.

[Rob]

Here is my update of the stocks that made the Independence Day Data Dump. Doggone if ol' SAFT didn't pick up another 4.88% since last week. Lawd, why didn't I buy that one when I fingered it? Again, if there are any splits I missed, please let me know.

http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/7866/avp6.png (http://imageshack.us)

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/6162/byw9.png (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Creme of the Crop has experienced total crop failure before. That's why I like to have a little crop insurance...Crop has its own insurance though New-Born. Total crop failure can be expected from time to time and by applying strict risk control the long-term outcome will be positive. Since Creme of the Crop was born (Nov '05) Creme is +18%. The Naz is -4.8%, the S&P500 is only +4%, the Dow only +6%. And that's with a success rate of only 28.6%!! and 3 total crop failures.

Below is the equity curve after 7 Creme of the Crop system plays. Yes, 7 is a very small sample and insufficient to prove robustness, but thus far it looks very promising.


http://img119.imageshack.us/img119/1527/cremeofthecropequitycurveafter7ki8.gif
Creme of the Crop Stats
July 30 2006

Crop 1 15% closed; target hit
Crop 2 15% closed; target hit
Crop 3 -4% closed; crop failure
Crop 4 0% closed; breakeven stop
Crop 5 -4% closed; crop failure
Crop 6 0% closed; breakeven stop
Crop 7 -4% closed; crop failure

Total profit to date is +18%

Average system winner is 15%
Average system loser is -2.4%
28.6% winners
Win/Loss 6.25
Win Prob 0.286
Kelly value is 0.171
Math Expect: 1.073

[jiesen]

wow. AWESOME results, Spike! You da man!

Hopefully these results will continue, and this "Creme" system will pay out handsomely for many here at $$MM.

[mrmarket]

Hopefully I can rotate my "crop" a little more frequently so more "creme" can be rising!

[diogenes]

Hopefully I can rotate my "crop" a little more frequently so more "creme" can be rising!


I can recall the fast change over of HANS a tad over a year ago.

More winners to come soon, no doubt.

[New-born baby]

Hopefully I can rotate my "crop" a little more frequently so more "creme" can be rising!

We are all for that :D

[mimo_100]

Crop has its own insurance though New-Born. Total crop failure can be expected from time to time and by applying strict risk control the long-term outcome will be positive. Since Creme of the Crop was born (Nov '05) Creme is +18%. The Naz is -4.8%, the S&P500 is only +4%, the Dow only +6%. And that's with a success rate of only 28.6%!! and 3 total crop failures.

Below is the equity curve after 7 Creme of the Crop system plays. Yes, 7 is a very small sample and insufficient to prove robustness, but thus far it looks very promising.


http://img119.imageshack.us/img119/1527/cremeofthecropequitycurveafter7ki8.gif
Creme of the Crop Stats
July 30 2006

Crop 1 15% closed; target hit
Crop 2 15% closed; target hit
Crop 3 -4% closed; crop failure
Crop 4 0% closed; breakeven stop
Crop 5 -4% closed; crop failure
Crop 6 0% closed; breakeven stop
Crop 7 -4% closed; crop failure

Total profit to date is +18%

Average system winner is 15%
Average system loser is -2.4%
28.6% winners
Win/Loss 6.25
Win Prob 0.286
Kelly value is 0.171
Math Expect: 1.073


Spike,

Could you provide a link to the details on Crop #7? I went to your PSP page but could not find a list anywhere. Thanks.

Tim

[Rob]

Yesterday I put up charts of the top ten best performers and the top ten worst performers of the Independence Day dump for the past week. I wondered whether the good performers would outdo the bad performers today, on the upward momentum, or whether the bad performers would do better on the "bounce."

Interestingly, the poorly performing stocks from last week did almost twice as well today as the others.


The best last week, and their performance today:AKAM .... 8.25%
CLB ..... 7.35%
ICLR ... -2.29%
WRLD .... 0.00%
LMS ..... 0.47%
HWCC ... -3.49%
FLAG .... 0.93%
ALJ ..... 4.47%
HITT .... 5.82%
LBIX .... 3.33%

Avg. .... 2.48%
The worst last week, and their performance today:CHH .... -0.79%
EMCI .... 7.58%
HSR .... 13.67%
ININ ... 11.75%
WAB ..... 0.99%
MCRI ... -0.58%
IRCE .... 0.00%
PMTI .... 1.28%
MED ..... 4.87%
XPRSA ... 8.29%

Avg. .... 4.71%
Both groups together averaged 3.59%.

[Rob]

http://img414.imageshack.us/img414/5469/ayx6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Spike,

Could you provide a link to the details on Crop #7? I went to your PSP page but could not find a list anywhere. Thanks.

Tim Tim,

Crop 7 is actually PSP#10 (http://tinyurl.com/zzo2v). I gotta apologise to anyone who's confused by that. After 3 or 4 months of waiting for another MM data dump to filter I decided to create the PSP site and use the same filtering methods on more 'lists', such as the IIC 100, Barcharts Top (and bottom) 100, Zacks lists, and others. With a new site came the new name, Parabolic Stock Picks, which are more relevant 'keywords' for a site.

I probably should make all this clear at the PSP site and have a dedicated Creme of the Crop page and track system stats and equity curve there for anyone interesting in following Creme of the Crop, and put reference links back to this site.

Thanks for the prompting Tim!

[Runner]

Here's another chart on why I like SAFT:

http://img319.imageshack.us/img319/5489/saft8hm.gif (http://imageshack.us)


Shoot, at 6.8 x earnings, you could buy it and then sell it when the P/E runs "all the way" up to 12x, and if the earnings are the same as they are today, the sale price would be 83.64, a 76% increase over today's 47.54 close! I really hate insurance companies, and that's probably one of the best reasons to own part of one.
Very nice call Rob!!!

[Rob]

Very nice call Rob!!!Thanks, Running One. ;)

[Rob]

Hmm, SAFT is taking a 5+% hit so far today on no apparent news. Might be topping for the time being.