FA help...

[Runner]

Ok Guys I’m seeking some FA advise from the HUGE Mr. M’ers. I have a scottrade account and need to put this to work for a longer term type investing.

I do not have a clue on fundamental reasons why one should buy. I know earnings growth, PE, things and that is about all. I welcome your insight on some of these picks. Not interested in the TA stuff on these picks. I’m interested in why they might or might not be a good investment…


LVS NTRI DXPE HANS ARXT BJS FTEK FCL BUCY ISRG NIHD CWTR NSR..

[Runner]

I forgot this one LCAV.

[billyjoe]

Runner,
You must have run these all through Vectorvest. The first 5 are rated a buy, the last 8, a hold. The market gurus at Validea go for these : NTRI DXPE HANS BJS and FTEK. Riskgrades says they're all average risk, but Vectorvest has several at high risk. Barcharts has most all but CWTR as a long term buy. Will edit in more later.

billyjoe

[Runner]

Runner,
You must have run these all through Vectorvest. The first 5 are rated a buy, the last 8, a hold. The market gurus at Validea go for these : NTRI DXPE HANS BJS and FTEK. Riskgrades says they're all average risk, but Vectorvest has several at high risk. Barcharts has most all but CWTR as a long term buy. Will edit in more later.

billyjoe
Billyjoe, I don’t have Vectorvest I ran a simple yhoo scan with heavy on the earnings growth. Now what is it that makes a FA guy tic? You know about us swing traders. We care only about the chart. I have some interest in putting together a longer-term port. Where can I learn about this FA stuff? I’d even go with a book if it can’t be found on the web. I’ve been lost looking into web sites.

[billyjoe]

Runner,
Try to find sources that rate debt, profitability, use of assets:ROI ROA ROE , liquidity. So far the only ones I'd cross off would be CWTR and FCL. These have less debt than others in competing industries : LCAV LVS HANS BUCY NSR.
Most of your list utilize their assets well with above average return on investments, assets, and equity. High rated in those areas are :LCAV LVS NTRI DXPE HANS BJS FTEK ISRG NIHD NSR. That's a start. You've got some good ones in there , but you can't buy them all or can you? Just remembered, Fidelity has a consensus "buy" rating only on FTEK and NTRI and rate all the others at outperform.

billyjoe

[Runner]

Billjoe, I’m not following about finding sources that rate debt, profitability, and the other stuff you mention. I plan to open 4-5 positions in this account. Do you know of a web site that explains what you’re talking about?

[Runner]

I must be sounding like an idiot but this is all new to me.

[billyjoe]

Runner,
Although Fidelity isn't my broker, my online broker provides a Fidelity research service that has just about everything concerning debt, return, assets etc. I don't know if you can get it free from Fidelity. If you Google enough sites you probably can get all the information at no charge. When Fidelity rates these stocks, they're always compared to like stocks. It will say something like "more profitable than it's peers" "less profitable than peers" or it won't comment which might mean it's just average. Same comments used for liquidity, debt, recent price appreciation. They also give what they call a consensus opinion which seems to differ greatly depending upon Google, Yahoo, AOL Finance Etc. Sometimes the opinions are completely opposite. Also a weird thing I noticed with Vectorvest is they can say the same stock is overvalued and underpriced at the same time. How can that be ?

billyjoe

[IIC]

Runner...there all different degrees of FA analysis.

Before you jump in you need to decide what is fundamentally important?

How deep do you want to go?...Do you want to analyze balance sheets?...Then 'ya gotta learn how to read them.

Doc said this on his thread:

C. If you want to take your analysis to a higher level of sophistication and complexity, forget the P/E ratio. Because various accounting maneuvers can distort reported earnings, many analysts rely on purer measure of profitability that goes by the acronym EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amoritization).

Now I wouldn't call it a higher level...but it takes quite a bit of time.

You could look at ROE...But what about companies that are great at leveraging?...You'll miss out on those if you put too much weight on it. Plus...you'll have to figure out what is good in a particular industry...IBD tries to make it simple w/ giving it a 17% min. or something...But that is not always the case.

You may also look at what is happening in a particular industry...If it is good...Who are the best? Takes A LOT of reading...And then you have to try to sift out fact from fiction...That is very difficult.

I used to be quite the Fundamentalist...But not really so much anymore...I like cos. with good recent eps and good projections that seem technically ready. But I don't think there is some scan for Fundamentally sound stocks that have a high probabilty of long term advance. Personally...I think fundamentals are more difficult to interpret than technicals...I'm not an expert in either...But I try to combine them even on swing trades and longer term trades...Day trades are a different story in most case for me though.

Also...a long term Fundamentalist needs to have some pretty strong nerves...Take my WITS...bot at an average of 14.49 in April and June 2004...At one point it was in the 9's...I didn't even tell my wife about the drop until it came back. But I believed what I read...As a heavy trade I don't think I'd do that again...But even so...I'm only up about 50% in 2 years...And it really isn't a Hot company in a Hot Group...When i saw it dip down under 20 the other day my heart sank...To be honest it was tough...I thought to myself...2 years down the drain???...But I still believe I'll see my target of 100%.

Anyway...I'm sure this post is not much help...If technical trading is working for you...I'd suggest just sticking with it...Best...Doug(IIC)

[Runner]

WOW Doug sounds like something that will take a long time to master. I’ve even given the thought of mixing both a little FA and TA together. My swings have done well. I just wanted to diversify a little with a longer-term hold time. Most of my swings have gone on to capture some huge gains. I normally bail when my stop part of the plan hits. I’ve also thought of tracking these stocks in a watch list and capture the trend. I like the TA set up on DXPE above the down sloping upper trendline. I think if this stock can pop over the line it might trigger some interest. What do you think?

[Runner]

Runner,
Although Fidelity isn't my broker, my online broker provides a Fidelity research service that has just about everything concerning debt, return, assets etc. I don't know if you can get it free from Fidelity. If you Google enough sites you probably can get all the information at no charge. When Fidelity rates these stocks, they're always compared to like stocks. It will say something like "more profitable than it's peers" "less profitable than peers" or it won't comment which might mean it's just average. Same comments used for liquidity, debt, recent price appreciation. They also give what they call a consensus opinion which seems to differ greatly depending upon Google, Yahoo, AOL Finance Etc. Sometimes the opinions are completely opposite. Also a weird thing I noticed with Vectorvest is they can say the same stock is overvalued and underpriced at the same time. How can that be ?

billyjoe
Billy, I have not a clue why they would have them as overvalued and underpriced at the same time. It makes me wonder about the information they are providing. I’m thinking of running a little experiment with these stocks I’ve posted. Since you have told me they appear to be sound on the FA side. I’m going to track them and try to use some TA to pick up some gains.

I have been doing enough research tonight to be dangerous with this FA stuff.

[IIC]

WOW Doug sounds like something that will take a long time to master. I’ve even given the thought of mixing both a little FA and TA together. My swings have done well. I just wanted to diversify a little with a longer-term hold time. Most of my swings have gone on to capture some huge gains. I normally bail when my stop part of the plan hits. I’ve also thought of tracking these stocks in a watch list and capture the trend. I like the TA set up on DXPE above the down sloping upper trendline. I think if this stock can pop over the line it might trigger some interest. What do you think?


I grew up on FA...Probably since I bot my first stock in the late 60's...I don't think it's anything I will ever master...Too subjective going forward for that.

As I mentioned...I know something about a lot of things...But I'm a master of nothing.

"Whatever Works" is a good policy.

DXPE...good outfit here...Wait till the technicals signal a buy.

A talk about FA would be too long here...Plus I am a 2 finger typist

[Runner]

DXPE- possible long signal over 46.00
FTEK- last signal long was 15.30 on 6/01/06 stock up 8% since signal.
CWTR- looks like a short. Price is wedging up
ARXT- is in trend acceleration mode and near all time highs. A push over 49.83 could get interesting with the break out players.
LCAV- looking for gap support to hold.
NIHD- working on first higher low. No entry yet
BJS- looks like a short. Price is wedging.

[mrmarket]

When I get a chance today, I'll see if I can give you a quick rundown on each one..

[Runner]

When I get a chance today, I'll see if I can give you a quick rundown on each one..
Mr. M that would be great. I’ve also discovered a stock that I believe has been flying under the radar. It is IBCA. I don’t have time to discus it right now, as I need to leave for a while. Looking forward to your take on some of those FA stocks picks…

[IIC]

You could look at ROE...But what about companies that are great at leveraging?...


I screwed up...When I made the comment about leveraging I should have really been talking about Debt. High debt is not always bad...Think of it as good debt or bad debt.

If a co. borrows money for continuing operations...generally that would be bad...If they borrow money for new equipment which will produce more products in less time at a cheaper unit cost that could be good...assuming they can sell the increased number of units.

Also...margins...vary quite a bit from industry to industry...so I don't think you can use one standard %...Doug

[Rob]

DXPE- possible long signal over 46.00
FTEK- last signal long was 15.30 on 6/01/06 stock up 8% since signal.
CWTR- looks like a short. Price is wedging up
ARXT- is in trend acceleration mode and near all time highs. A push over 49.83 could get interesting with the break out players.
LCAV- looking for gap support to hold.
NIHD- working on first higher low. No entry yet
BJS- looks like a short. Price is wedging.Runner, I took your above list and created some graphical representations of their earnings (per share) growth over the past 8 quarters, expressed as percentages. These are quarter-over-quarter figures. The source for the numbers is MSN's Moneycentral Web site. A N/A on the source table translates to a 0%. (ARXT had quite a few N/A's.)

As you can see, some of the highest in terms of pct. avg. also have a great deal of volatility. I like to look at stuff like this. Thought I'd toss it out there for your perusal.

http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/5497/grpct0pf.gif (http://imageshack.us)


Edit: Just for grins and giggles, I did a graph on Google's earnings the same as with those above, and this is what resulted:

http://img456.imageshack.us/img456/2199/ggrpct4ii.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Hey Rob cool charts you have there. Looks like some of then might be slowing down.

[Runner]

Not sure about this but here is one way of looking at it http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060605.htm

[mrmarket]

Stock scouter gives you a good fundamental snapshot of some companies so you can quickly separate wheat from chaff:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/srs/srsmain.asp

[Runner]

Not sure about this but here is one way of looking at it http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060605.htm
Hey thanks for the link MM. Now explain how to separate the wheat from the chaff? MM what is your comments on this guys write up pertaining to earnings growth?

[studentofthemarket]

I must be sounding like an idiot but this is all new to me.

If this is all new to you, you need to take a breath and do some reading before you launch.

I would suggest you read.

Peter Lynch's first book
small stocks big profits, I think Perritt is the author
the Market Wizards books by Jack Schwager<sp>

Just to point out a few books I thought were interesting in the past.

I read many books before I formulated my current system. And that doesn't include my time spent on the Investor's Forum on CompuServe back in the preinterenet days. or Business Week, The Economist, IBD, etc.

Good Luck

[mrmarket]

Ok Guys I’m seeking some FA advise from the HUGE Mr. M’ers. I have a scottrade account and need to put this to work for a longer term type investing.

I do not have a clue on fundamental reasons why one should buy. I know earnings growth, PE, things and that is about all. I welcome your insight on some of these picks. Not interested in the TA stuff on these picks. I’m interested in why they might or might not be a good investment…


LVS NTRI DXPE HANS ARXT BJS FTEK FCL BUCY ISRG NIHD CWTR NSR..

For starters, I only like stocks that have shown 3 consecutive years of revenue and earnings growth. That means the only stocks I would consider are: NTRI, DXPE, HANS, BJS, FCL, CWTR and NSR. That doesn't mean that the other stocks aren't good investments, but its my way of weeding out stocks that are likely to continue to be good earners, which is the most important quality of stock price enrichment. More in a little while...

[Runner]

Well these FA stocks did not fare well today. Nothing did to hot anyway. Thanks MM for the info on 3 years of revenue and earnings growth.

Looking over my FA scan I noticed a few changes. CTSH SII RES NBR GOL have been added today.

[Runner]

Hey MM, I was just thinking about a stocks PE. What is considered to high? I was thinking this. Now if a stocks PE is real high and it disappoints the boys on the street this may have a seriously negative effect on this stock, thus resulting in a nice splash down.

[Runner]

…..And you thought you had a bad day.. Check out this paratrooper as he prepares to conduct a PLF (parachute landing fall)...

http://img358.imageshack.us/img358/3736/para1ql.png (http://imageshack.us)

[mrmarket]

Hey MM, I was just thinking about a stocks PE. What is considered to high? I was thinking this. Now if a stocks PE is real high and it disappoints the boys on the street this may have a seriously negative effect on this stock, thus resulting in a nice splash down.


Absolutely...and conversely if a stock has a very low P/E it's not to far to fall. Empirical studies done on the entire market have proven that low P/E stocks outperform high P/E stocks

I like lower P/E stocks. I'll only buy a high PE stock if its earnings AND revenue growth are accelerating.

[mrmarket]

Well these FA stocks did not fare well today. Nothing did to hot anyway. Thanks MM for the info on 3 years of revenue and earnings growth.

Looking over my FA scan I noticed a few changes. CTSH SII RES NBR GOL have been added today.

Runner..if you're using FA as your guide, what a stock does in a day, a week or a month really doesn't mean anything. What you have determined is that a stock is undervalued, relative to the market, and that eventually it will find its appropriate valuation.

[mrmarket]

When you look at NTRI, the first thing you see is its explosive revenue and earnings growth in the most recent quarter. The market loved it, driving its stock up to a PE of 60.

I tend to favor this stock because its stock price has been trending up for a 2 year period, meaning that it is not exactly a flash in the pan. But the question you have to ask is if its earnings growth will continue in order to support a valuation of 60? What's so special about their product, basically dried yucky food that people store in their closets for years.

So I guess I'm saying with NTRI, I just don't see it. It may indeed continue to go up, but why take a risk?

[mrmarket]

Now DXPE is a Mrmarket stock which I really like. It's in a nice boring industry that will grow with the economy, which seems to be doing well right now.

While it's trailing PE is kind of high (36), if you look at its projected PE of 18, it is very reasonably priced. If you look at its return on assets (ROA) of 11.5% and its return on equity (ROE) of 37%, it's easy to see how it will be able to sustain its impressive revenue and earnings growth.

You have to watch its balance sheet, since they have levered up a bit to support their infrastructure growth, but if you look at their cash flow you'll see that this debt is covered.

Put a check mark next to DXPE.

[mrmarket]

What can I say about HANS that hasn't already been said. It's tough for me to love this stock anymore as it seems to be following the same path that Snapple went on (hot independent, huge advertising and branding, new product that sizzles)....eventually to be absorbed by an old staid giant distributor to basically fade to black.

I'm sure the curtain hasn't closed on HANS yet but at a PE of 59, can you really afford to be wrong here? You have to love the growth story, but the first time they miss earnings, they'll get taken out back and shot and they will NEVER recover.

Not worth the risk anymore to me.

[mrmarket]

I really can't comment on BJS because its in the oil industry. However one can safely say that as long as oil prices stay where they are, or go higher, this stock will perform very well.

[mrmarket]

FCL is an industry story, the coal industry. It's still pretty cheap, trading at a PE of around 20. What makes it further attractive is the fact that its PEG ratio is only 0.7 meaning that as its earnings continue to grow, the stock price has not quite kept up with it so there is room for the stock price to accelerate, once the market catches on.

There is no reason to believe that coal prices will take a tumble anytime soon, so FCL looks to be in great shape from an earnings growth prospective. With cash flow increasing, they'll have more money to spend on production which should generate even more revenue.

With an ROE of 33% and YOY revenue growth at 30%, this stock is a nice safe play. Check mark.

[Runner]

10-4 MM, ok looking into NBR’s PE I notice that right now it is showing a 10-year low at 14.6. Now according to PE readings this stock should be cheap at 34.54. It also makes me wonder if long term investors will often sell the stock if it should get closer to its 10 or 5 year high. This might indicate a stock that is now run its race? Short term I’m not bullish in the energy sector but NBR looks attractive.

Here is my understanding thus far of the FA approach on NBR:

NBR-drilling Company

This company has increased sales over the last three years from 1,880>2,394>3,459 and is currently at a PE of 14.6 this also is a 10 year low.
Sales have also increased over the last three QTR’s from 893>1,017>1,163

Return on Equity is currently at 20.4 and the 5 year average is 12.2
This stock is projected to continue strong earnings going into 2007 with this year projected EPS 3.34 and next year 4.50.

Based on me limited exposure to FA here is what I see
Low P.E ratio compared to the 10 year average. Expected strong growth going forward and so I rate NBR highly as a possible buy when TA conditions improve.

[Runner]

WOW, thanks for taking the time to check these out for me MM.

[mrmarket]

CWTR has been in the MM top 5 before, so you know I have to like it. Unfortunately for me, I never bought this stock and its PE is now over 50. When I'm paying that much for a stock, I really have to like its product and understand just what it is that makes it that much better than its competition.

In the case of CWTR..it's a specialty retailer of women's stuff. Sure it is growing its revenues and earnings but I can't quite grasp why other companies won't be able to jump into this fun. It's forward PE is still as high as 30, which means even if it makes its numbers next year, its stock will still be expensive.

With only a 6% profit margin, they need to push a lot more volume of this stuff. I just can't see the growth that will sustain it right now. CWTR was a MM top 5 pick back in June 2004. I guess I should have bought it then. I can't really love it now.

[mrmarket]

I really can't figure out what this company actually does to make money. They seem to be successful at it, but since I'm too stupid to understand their business, I won't buy their stock, especially at a PE of 41.

[mrmarket]

I hope that gave you a little taste of the kinds of things I look at.

[billyjoe]

Runner,
Please tell us if you decide to buy any on your list.

billyjoe

[mrmarket]

10-4 MM, ok looking into NBR’s PE I notice that right now it is showing a 10-year low at 14.6. Now according to PE readings this stock should be cheap at 34.54. It also makes me wonder if long term investors will often sell the stock if it should get closer to its 10 or 5 year high. This might indicate a stock that is now run its race? Short term I’m not bullish in the energy sector but NBR looks attractive.

Here is my understanding thus far of the FA approach on NBR:

NBR-drilling Company

This company has increased sales over the last three years from 1,880>2,394>3,459 and is currently at a PE of 14.6 this also is a 10 year low.
Sales have also increased over the last three QTR’s from 893>1,017>1,163

Return on Equity is currently at 20.4 and the 5 year average is 12.2
This stock is projected to continue strong earnings going into 2007 with this year projected EPS 3.34 and next year 4.50.

Based on me limited exposure to FA here is what I see
Low P.E ratio compared to the 10 year average. Expected strong growth going forward and so I rate NBR highly as a possible buy when TA conditions improve.

Runner,

NBR is an energy play, so I really try to hold back commenting on it. However when I compare the drilling companies, I like to see how much money they make in different oil price environments. For example, how much money did they make when oil was $40, $50, $60 and now $70/bbl. You can compare these earnings with those of the other contract well service firms and determine which companies the oil guys go to when the going just started to get good. This gives you an indication of which company will be left standing if oil prices start to fade again.

If you love the oil business right now, this is a good stock to own. If you are skeptical about the oil business, then maybe this is too risky for you. You are right though, the low PE makes it easier to swallow.

There's no reason why good FA can't be used with TA.

[Runner]

I hope that gave you a little taste of the kinds of things I look at.
I will need to gather more knowledge of the FA side of things and may even buy a book to try to learn. I’ll also need to find out how to sift thru the chaff. I’ve thus far learned low PE is good and high does not mean bad but the stock may have run its race. I’ve learned a company that has increased sales over a 3-year period might be able to continue to increase these sales. I’m thinking this and could be wrong. If the pe has a 10 year history and is now at the lowest point in those 10 years this stock is attractive to investors as long as sales and earnings are strong.

[mrmarket]

I will need to gather more knowledge of the FA side of things and may even buy a book to try to learn. I’ll also need to find out how to sift thru the chaff. I’ve thus far learned low PE is good and high does not mean bad but the stock may have run its race. I’ve learned a company that has increased sales over a 3-year period might be able to continue to increase these sales. I’m thinking this and could be wrong. If the pe has a 10 year history and is now at the lowest point in those 10 years this stock is attractive to investors as long as sales and earnings are strong.


Nothing is a certainty...for example the homebuilders, even with record earnings and revenue growth, had stubbornly low PE ratios. Then the market finally decided that speculation in real estate had run its course and the homebuilders got hammered.

Having said that, these companies continue to make money, and I see management doing the following:

paying dividends, buying back stock, consolidations...all are good for stock prices.

[Rob]

I'll only buy a high PE stock if its earnings AND revenue growth are accelerating.I wholeheartedly agree with that, $$$ Mr. Market $$$. Here's an example that illustrates the power of revenue growth:

http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/5595/ebayio4rp.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Here is a brief look of the entire group that NBR is in

http://img456.imageshack.us/img456/6043/gasdrilling9cy.png (http://imageshack.us)

[IIC]

I will need to gather more knowledge of the FA side of things and may even buy a book to try to learn. I’ll also need to find out how to sift thru the chaff. I’ve thus far learned low PE is good and high does not mean bad but the stock may have run its race. I’ve learned a company that has increased sales over a 3-year period might be able to continue to increase these sales. I’m thinking this and could be wrong. If the pe has a 10 year history and is now at the lowest point in those 10 years this stock is attractive to investors as long as sales and earnings are strong.

Decreasing sales is not always bad...Depends why...A company that eliminates low margin products to spend more time selling high margin products can actually have increased eps as revenue declines. Or possibly, they have taken the lean and mean approach...eliminated lower producing sales staff...sales might decline overall...but eps could increase due to elimination of dead weight overhead...Just some food for thought...Doug(IIC)

[Runner]

DXPE 60 min chart looking interesting here and might offer a short term trade on the long side.

[Runner]

NTRI 60 min chart looks interesting here and may offer short term trade on long side.

[Runner]

Picked up a little GOL for short term trade.

[Runner]

Missed NTRI as it is doing well today...

[Runner]

NBR-weekly lower channel around 30.65. Stock under pressure today.

[mrmarket]

so much for the fundamental analysis!!

[Runner]

I like NBR, but one can’t argue with the current market trend. I’ll be searching for an entry MM. I guess maybe a FA/TA approach.

[Runner]

I see possible positive action in NRB. The 60 min chart is currently trying to pop out off the downtrend trendline channel. Daily showed a little better action as well. I’m not a bottom picker and will monitor this stock for an entry. Stock does have some R to work through.
http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/4903/nbr3oj.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Trend read on Energy:

Monthly flagged huge reversal this month and currently testing lows from March and April. Monthly lower trendline is currently being tested as well. Monthly suggests possible support around April’s lows.

Weekly shows wide range bar and test of prior lows. This weekly trend is still intact and currently sitting at a very critical area right here. Failure at these lows will spell possibly huge trouble.

Daily shows Energy gaps down after putting in new highs. This is mostly a huge caution flag for longs. Stock drifts up and sets up as a short off gap retest that failed. Sitting at support and this need to hold or this thing is in huge trouble.

Recap:
Monthly-Reversal to downside @ support
Weekly- Wide range bar sitting at critical support
Daily- huge sharp drop sitting at support

Based on review I do think a possible bounce in Energy is possible. How long will this be if it happens? I have not a clue.

[Runner]

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/1120/energy18tk.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img462.imageshack.us/img462/9456/energy20ny.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img462.imageshack.us/img462/3662/energy30jp.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Picked up a little GOL for short term trade.
trim gol trail rest.

[Runner]

stopped on rest on gol..

[Runner]

Hey MM, what up with my FA picks? They been farting around for a good while now.. Sorry about getting off topic with some of my short term trades. I just can’t see buying these jokers right now. This could have a huge negative impact…I only favor scalp plays and maybe short term trading at this time.

[Runner]

MM, I have a question for you. If one of your picks turned 15% today would you be buying another stock next week?

[Runner]

Here is another question to the general board. What parameters must the market be in for you to take your FA stock long? Like maybe the 200dma or 50 are something like that.

[IIC]

Here is another question to the general board. What parameters must the market be in for you to take your FA stock long? Like maybe the 200dma or 50 are something like that.

Not so simple...Look for the the best stocks in the best moving groups(Not necessarily the Top Groups...The Moving Groups) is a good idea IMO.

IBD groups are very laggard except for the Daily movers...That's why I have to keep them myself...Doug

[Runner]

My buddy said he has a TA book for me to read. I think it is from a guy named William O’neal. Have you herd of this guy?

[IIC]

My buddy said he has a TA book for me to read. I think it is from a guy named William O’neal. Have you herd of this guy?

HERD...Sounds like a bunch of mindless cattle...LOL

[Runner]

IIC, I’ve studied Dave Landry’s system for a good while and like his persistent pullbacks. I’ve got his disks and really like the simplicity of it. I’ve done very well with it but the system is very streaky as it is all momentum based. I need three primary set ups to go long. Market, sector, and stock before trigger point.

I’m getting interested in learning about the FA stuff as I normally can’t even tell you the name of the company or even what they really do.

[Runner]

HERD...Sounds like a bunch of mindless cattle...LOL
I just remember who that guy is. Mr. IBD sorry about that. I had the newspaper from those guys my first year. That darn daily market takes or big picture got me in trouble. They did not come out and say bear until the blood was over with..

[IIC]

IIC, I’ve studied Dave Landry’s system for a good while and like his persistent pullbacks. I’ve got his disks and really like the simplicity of it. I’ve done very well with it but the system is very streaky as it is all momentum based. I need three primary set ups to go long. Market, sector, and stock before trigger point.

I’m getting interested in learning about the FA stuff as I normally can’t even tell you the name of the company or even what they really do.

What is your definition of Trigger Point...I call it "Flash Point" myself...Sometimes "Action Point"...But what is that point?

I would have a hard time explaining my def....Because it may depend on my goal...Quickie trade...Swing trade...Intermediate...Long Term...Doug(IIC)

[Runner]

A trigger point is the place you plan to buy at. In the pullbacks it is normally .10 from prior days high. This does not mean you pull the trigger on everything that trips it. It also takes on some discretion..

[Runner]

I hear you and I think everyone has their own deal on how they do things. I’ve been in scalp mode as on late with MED being a real nice winner last week. GOL I lucked up on and held for a few days and got out today. Doug do you scalp off 1 min charts?

[Runner]

What is your definition of Trigger Point...I call it "Flash Point" myself...Sometimes "Action Point"...But what is that point?

I would have a hard time explaining my def....Because it may depend on my goal...Quickie trade...Swing trade...Intermediate...Long Term...Doug(IIC)
The reason I asked about the 1 min charts. I’ve done much better off 15-60 min then the 3. Not sure why that is but seems to have been working. I’d get to jumpy with each little tic and sell way to early or take a loss way to soon.

I’ve got to be careful with the scalps because it gets me out of sync with swings. I told myself this Year I would not do it and here I am scalping.

[IIC]

I hear you and I think everyone has their own deal on how they do things. I’ve been in scalp mode as on late with MED being a real nice winner last week. GOL I lucked up on and held for a few days and got out today. Doug do you scalp off 1 min charts?

Yes...But I have not made that many recently...36 in the last month to be exact...26 gainers...But did not make as much on them as I lost on my longer term holdings...But no prob...Sh*t happens...As long as it doesn't happen too often...Doug

[Runner]

Doug pretty good numbers as long as they are worth it. Your batting average seems great. 36/26=1.38.

[IIC]

Doug pretty good numbers as long as they are worth it. Your batting average seems great. 36/26=1.38.

Day Trades are much easier than longer term trades...But I don't put as much money into them...Doug

[Runner]

For some reason some of my FA picks have fallen off the scan. Here are the scan results as of close Friday

LVS NTRI DXPE RES HANS ARXT BJS FCL QSII ISRG GOL CTSH LCAV NSR

[IIC]

For some reason some of my FA picks have fallen off the scan. Here are the scan results as of close Friday

LVS NTRI DXPE RES HANS ARXT BJS FCL QSII ISRG GOL CTSH LCAV NSR

Nice list...But heed this advice which I post on my Stockcharts.com Public charts thing:

"Look for stocks with the BEST fundamentals when they are technically ready"

That's not the exact quote...But same thing...Best, Doug(IIC)

[Runner]

Wow my FA list has been really taking a whopping. I’m glad I did not buy any yet.

[IIC]

Wow my FA list has been really taking a whopping. I’m glad I did not buy any yet.

The good eps, high RS stocks on my lists as well as IBD's lists have taken a beating the last couple of weeks...These stocks overall tend to be volatile...Best to leave them alone for now IMO...Best, Doug

[Runner]

Since the Key reversal day in the S&P 500 on 5/11/06 this is how the FA stocks I selected based on Fundamentals have thus faired the dark clouds:

DXPE -36.87%
LVS -11.25%
NTRI -14.16%
RES - 30.65%
HANS - 15.35%
ARXT +7.67%
BJS -12.74%
FCL -29.06%
QSII +17.67%
ISRG -11.65%
GOL -20.37%
CTSH -13.39%
LCAV -14.99%
NSR -16.17%

Not a pretty sight and it just goes to show how some high flyers flop when a key reversal in the indices occur.

[Runner]

I was checking out some fA stuff and was wondering what some of you think of the fundamentals on CRDN? Is this stock a value play to 65?

[IIC]

I was checking out some fA stuff and was wondering what some of you think of the fundamentals on CRDN? Is this stock a value play to 65?

I would say it is...Doug

[billyjoe]

Runner,
CRDN looks very good , but most services have it rated as a sell. Maybe because of the current market they say the timing is bad. Vectorvest says sell although they say it has a value of 86.82 earnings growth rate 27% sales 95%, well above average safety. Rated outperform. Stockscouter gives it a 7 of 10. Barchart says sell.
-------billyjoe

[Runner]

Runner,
CRDN looks very good , but most services have it rated as a sell. Maybe because of the current market they say the timing is bad. Vectorvest says sell although they say it has a value of 86.82 earnings growth rate 27% sales 95%, well above average safety. Rated outperform. Stockscouter gives it a 7 of 10. Barchart says sell.
-------billyjoe
Billyjoe, I’m trying to figure this FA stuff without the distorted judgment from the experts. What do you think? I don’t trust the experts with buy and sell. IMO I think they do the opposite of what they recommend.

[Rob]

Since the Key reversal day in the S&P 500 on 5/11/06 . . . IMCL up 2.5% :)

[billyjoe]

Runner,
I'd seriously consider buying it , but wouldn't expect a significant gain in a few days. It could take months and I think it will be up considerably within a year. I've sold a ton of great picks too early, very few end up being dogs unless something unusual or illegal happens. CRDN appears to be legit.
--------billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Runner,
Did you ever Google stockscouter and click on top 50 fundamental stocks or top 50 technical stocks? Interesting stuff.
---------billyjoe

[Rob]

Runner,
Did you ever Google stockscouter and click on top 50 fundamental stocks or top 50 technical stocks? Interesting stuff.
---------billyjoeNo need to Google it ... just click this link (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/srs/srstopstocks.asp). :)

[Gatorman]

No need to Google it ... just click this link (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/srs/srstopstocks.asp). :)
If you use their Power Search tools, you can create a customized search such as VectorVest uses. The similarities are quite remarkable and the fact that it is free says a lot for the service.
I suspect the same author for both tools.

[New-born baby]

If you use their Power Search tools, you can create a customized search such as VectorVest uses. The similarities are quite remarkable and the fact that it is free says a lot for the service.
I suspect the same author for both tools.

Can it be any good at all? I see PARL didn't make the list. lol

[Runner]

Billyjoe, here is a suggestion on a very simple system. Pull up a weekly chart with 10 day simple moving average and 40. Chart settings for last three years.

Notice stocks that bounce nicely off the 40 and look to get long on crossover of the 10. Simple but yet effective. As stock moves in your favor trail stops under the 40. When you see a lot of daylight between the moving average this indicates the trend is in acceleration mode. Now the long signal happens when the 10 and 40 close the daylight and converge. Here was entry signal on this example. Most stocks right now do not look hot for using this trend following method.

Here is an example
http://img123.imageshack.us/img123/923/bgc1mo.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/782/bgc15qp.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Few things I like about GIL:

It appears to me GIL knows how to make money. During the last 10 years this stock has consistently turned a profit. The company is worldwide with its headquarters located in Canada. It currently has 11,000 employees worldwide.

What Do they DO? They simply manufacture T-shirts and sweatshirts. They plan to expand into the underwear and athletic socks as well.

Management:
Under Mr. Chamandy's leadership, Gildan has become the largest worldwide manufacturer and marketer of T-shirts, and the undisputed market leader in the North American imprinted T-shirt industry. Sales have increased from U.S. $224 million in 1999, Gildan's first fiscal year as a public company, to approximately U.S. $650 million projected for the Company's current fiscal year. During this time, the Company has achieved average annual growth in earnings per share of close to 30% and has maintained an average return on equity of close to 30%. The Company's shares are traded on both the TSX and the NYSE. The share price has increased from U.S. $1.75 at the time of its Initial Public Offering in June 1998 (after given effect to two subsequent stock splits) to over U.S. $33. Its equity market capitalization has increased from U.S. $70 million at the time of the IPO to approximately U.S. $2.0 billion.

The Company has announced a 5-year strategic plan to continue its sales and earnings growth. In addition to continuing to build on its leadership position in the North American market for imprinted T-shirts, sweatshirts and sports shirts, the Company's plans include penetration of the mass-market retail channel for these products, the introduction of complementary products such as men's and boy's underwear and athletic socks, and significant expansion into new international markets.

This management team knows how to turn a profit.. On June 20th they will acquire 100% control of the equity of Kentucky Derby Hosiery Co…Total deal is worth about US $45 million. Kentucky Derby has annual sales in excess of US $130 million.

I think this company is solid and set for further growth. I think I will pick up some shares for a LONG position. My fuzzy FA logic tells me it is a buy..

[Runner]

My very first FA port has the following

CRDN HDI K GILD MFLX and soon GIL. My biggest short-term winners are K, and CRDN. HDI and GILD are currently negative

[Runner]

Locked in profits on MFLX Still waiting on GIL. Nice few day hold on MFLX. Caught it at 29.00

[Rob]

Runner, I'm seriously considering a long position in CRDN. If you look at a chart stretching back over several years (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRDN&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63994006297), it looks like a huge no. 5 impulse wave could be in the offing.

[Runner]

Rob, I own some shares of CRDN from 44.20 with a 3.5-point stop built into my plan. I have a target of 65.00. I’m also trailing with volatility stop. Part of my FA plan is to not let a price free fall from me. We shall see how this all pans out as entry was not really based on a perfect set-up..

[Runner]

Open FA positions are now set tight as far as stops go.

[Runner]

LVS has been showing some signs of life as it has done a fine job riding the channel line up while making higher highs and higher lows. I do not own this stock at this time.
http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/3293/lvs2vq.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Thus far I’m pleased with my FA picks here is current points from entry

CRDN-10
HDI-3
K- 2
GILD-3

Thinking of locking in K and trailing CRDN a little tighter. I have not run my FA scan in awhile and will do so soon. I was gone for a while and no stops triggered.

[Runner]

FA updated list

LVS NTRI HANS HELX ARXT FCL SII EGY QSII ISRG CTSH SLB

[Runner]

FA updated list

LVS NTRI HANS HELX ARXT FCL SII EGY QSII ISRG CTSH SLB

some of these are setting up on the long side.

[Runner]

All my prior FA stocks got stopped out except GILD. I was planning on holding longer but needed to move into caution mode here...

[Runner]

FA stocks for consideration
ARD DVA PQ CTSH VPHM VDSI SWHC OMNI ELOS BJS QSII BEAV TXCO

[Runner]

DVA-ups income guidance
CTSH-Qtr revenue increase up 59% from year ago.
VPHM- expects 10-20% growth over 2005
VDSI- announced revenue growth of 35-45% over 2005
SWHC-ups guidance for 2007
BJS- ups guidance for 2007
QSII- Mr. Hussein who owns 17.4% of outstanding shares terminates litigation
BEAV- Acquisition of NY Fasteners, Increases Presence in Military/Defense Sector

[billyjoe]

FA stocks for consideration
ARD DVA PQ CTSH VPHM VDSI SWHC OMNI ELOS BJS QSII BEAV TXCO

Runner,
I'd take ELOS off the list . Down 29.84% YTD and now 16th of the 17 picks in Celebrity POTY contest. The first 3 places and the last 3 have been somewhat stable since Jan 3rd this year except ELOS has been losing ground. RS must be low although I haven't checked.

----------------billyjoe

[Rob]

Billy, I've been given to understand that ELOS is on JNJ's radar as a potential acquisition target, though I'm not sure of this claim's validity.

[Runner]

Runner,
I'd take ELOS off the list . Down 29.84% YTD and now 16th of the 17 picks in Celebrity POTY contest. The first 3 places and the last 3 have been somewhat stable since Jan 3rd this year except ELOS has been losing ground. RS must be low although I haven't checked.

----------------billyjoe

Billyjoe, you may be right with ELOS. I will say that technically this one has shown some improvements. Short term I see 26.84 as next floor of resistance.

[Runner]

Green line needs to hold here on ELOS
http://img55.imageshack.us/img55/8433/elosmn9.png (http://imageshack.us)

[billyjoe]

Billyjoe, you may be right with ELOS. I will say that technically this one has shown some improvements. Short term I see 26.84 as next floor of resistance.

Runner,
I guess it depends upon the time frame. It really doesn't look bad if you start in June. And it's 15th out of 17 in the YTD POTY contest, not 16th as I reported.

-------------billyjoe

[Runner]

FA stocks for consideration
ARD DVA PQ CTSH VPHM VDSI SWHC OMNI ELOS BJS QSII BEAV TXCO
txco looking pretty good

[Runner]

ARD is on fire

[IIC]

Geez...You and I must be on the same wavelength...TXCO and ARD

[Runner]

Billyjoe, you may be right with ELOS. I will say that technically this one has shown some improvements. Short term I see 26.84 as next floor of resistance.

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/8697/elosnp6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Here is how ELOS is ranked within its group

http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/969/rankelosil1.png (http://imageshack.us)

[billyjoe]

Runner,
Has been on an uptrend certainly since July. Last 4 weeks performance : 8/25-down 2.4% , 9/1-up 5.83%, 9/8-down 1.9%, 9/17- up 3.46%. As of 9/17 YTD is down 24.85% , but as of July 21 it was down 43.03% YTD , a nice 18.18% gain.

-----------billyjoe

[Runner]

Runner,
Has been on an uptrend certainly since July. Last 4 weeks performance : 8/25-down 2.4% , 9/1-up 5.83%, 9/8-down 1.9%, 9/17- up 3.46%. As of 9/17 YTD is down 24.85% , but as of July 21 it was down 43.03% YTD , a nice 18.18% gain.

-----------billyjoe

Billyjoe, I’m really not that much interested in how much it has been down in the past. I’m more interested in the future. I would not suggest buying here as it is about to bump into Resistance. It has gone up a few points since the retest. If you want some numbers this stock has gone up 37.33% since 7/21/06...

[Runner]

http://img236.imageshack.us/img236/4243/elospercentth5.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Here are some of my fa stocks from scan. I do not own any

CRDN ESV SPN CACB IAAC TSRA ALY ARD WCG

[peanuts]

Here are some of my fa stocks from scan. I do not own any

CRDN ESV SPN CACB IAAC TSRA ALY ARD WCG

I like CRDN, CACB, TSRA, and ALY

CRDN was part of the Earnings Growth Greenies

[Runner]

Billyjoe, you may be right with ELOS. I will say that technically this one has shown some improvements. Short term I see 26.84 as next floor of resistance.

It did hit that 26 area target. I do not own elos

[Runner]

I like CRDN, CACB, TSRA, and ALY

CRDN was part of the Earnings Growth Greenies

Peanuts, awesome job with your list. I must admit this is the first time I've seen them...

[billyjoe]

ELOS as of 12/1/06 @22.95 down YTD -28.44%. Was picked by Supernova Stock News Letter as stock of the year for 2006.

-----------billyjoe

[Runner]

ELOS as of 12/1/06 @22.95 down YTD -28.44%. Was picked by Supernova Stock News Letter as stock of the year for 2006.

-----------billyjoe


I got it Billyjoe..

[Runner]

Here are some of my fa stocks from scan. I do not own any

CRDN ESV SPN CACB IAAC TSRA ALY ARD WCG

Some of these look pretty good as of late!

[Runner]

Adding FTK and WHQ for FA list

[Runner]

ELOS as of 12/1/06 @22.95 down YTD -28.44%. Was picked by Supernova Stock News Letter as stock of the year for 2006.

-----------billyjoe


I guess the year is not over yet.. ELOS has had a few nice days...