Doctor Jack's Stock Medicine

[mrmarket]

I found Jack Haddad over on Myspace.com. He is a very savvy / investor trader. I have set up this thread for him to post his ideas on. Go for it Jack, and welcome!

[peanuts]

I found Jack Haddad over on Myspace.com. He is a very savvy / investor trader. I have set up this thread for him to post his ideas on. Go for it Jack, and welcome!

An endorsement from the HUGE one.... I will look forward to gaining knowledge and $$$$ from the upcoming advice

Welcome

[Jack Haddad]

An endorsement from the HUGE one.... I will look forward to gaining knowledge and $$$$ from the upcoming advice

Welcome

I thank you all wholeheartedly, and look forward to learning from you as well. I'm adamant of the belief that posting trades (be it hypothetical/paper or real) in as close ot real time as possible is of paramount importance; that said, I will do my best to post so on this forum.

Though I'm primarily a market technician, I do believe that a company's fundamentals play a role in disciplined trading. For further review of this topic and technical versus fundamental analysis, please see my article at: http://falkincommunity.blogspot.com/2006/02/jack-haddad-january-guest-writing.html

All the best,
Jack Haddad, MD, MBA, CMT

[diogenes]

Welcome!
Always good to see more active posters.

[Jack Haddad]

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=TSO&num1=7&cobrand=&mode=stock

The above 6-month chart on TSO is very interesting. Note the inverse head-and-shoulder pattern which spanned from Feb 15 to March 8. This has cuased the stock to propel to a a 52 week high of 75. Thereafter, the stock has recently trended down to test the intermediate term support of 65, but was noty successful in breaching the 6 months support of 60.75.

At this hour, the stock has gained strength on the hourly...and since horizontal support stands a good support at 62.50, I did the following: Purchased shares at 65.40, and wrote the June 65 strike calls for 2.85/contract. I feel this strategy provides a good hedge for the time being. I will update all changes/executions later.

[mrmarket]

Crack spreads will open up this summer..it will be a good time to be a refiner.

[Rob]

Welcome, Dr. Jack! I will also be looking forward to your analyses. I'm particularly interested by the fact that you posted (in the other thread) about ImClone. IMCL is a stock that I am currently holding a long position on, as well as some June $40 calls. While I'm more of a fundamental-type, I do like to examine technical trends/patterns as well.

ImClone has a very real catalyst looming on the horizon right now. The annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) is scheduled to take place the first week in June, where the results of several key clinical studies are going to be released. From my limited understanding of these things, I'm inclined to believe there are going to be some positive results unveiled there that will be seen as fuel for growth in Erbitux sales--not the least of which is one that may indicate some inroads into Avastin's market share in 1st line metastatic colorectal cancer. Other types of cancer for which Erbitux may prove effective include non-small-cell lung (the biggie) and pancreatic.

Even most technical traders will agree that news trumps charts every time. Well there is news soon to break here.

[DSteckler]

The above 6-month chart on TSO is very interesting. Note the inverse head-and-shoulder pattern which spanned from Feb 15 to March 8.

That's a continuation H&S, not an inverse H&S. The difference is: 1) the former is a consolidation or continuation formation whereas the latter is a reversal formation; and 2) volume in the former follows no pattern whereas in the latter, the left shoulder sees the lightest volume and volume gets higher as the pattern unfolds, with the heaviest volume in the right shoulder.

With TSO there was no pattern to volume in that time period. In fact, volume was very light near the top of the right shoulder.

[Jack Haddad]

Welcome, Dr. Jack! I will also be looking forward to your analyses. I'm particularly interested by the fact that you posted (in the other thread) about ImClone. IMCL is a stock that I am currently holding a long position on, as well as some June $40 calls. While I'm more of a fundamental-type, I do like to examine technical trends/patterns as well.

ImClone has a very real catalyst looming on the horizon right now. The annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) is scheduled to take place the first week in June, where the results of several key clinical studies are going to be released. From my limited understanding of these things, I'm inclined to believe there are going to be some positive results unveiled there that will be seen as fuel for growth in Erbitux sales--not the least of which is one that may indicate some inroads into Avastin's market share in 1st line metastatic colorectal cancer. Other types of cancer for which Erbitux may prove effective include non-small-cell lung (the biggie) and pancreatic.

Even most technical traders will agree that news trumps charts every time. Well there is news soon to break here.

Thank you, Rob. If youre interested, I published an article on IMCL 2 weeks ago. Here is the link: http://www.avcg.net/news/newsandarticles_article.asp?DID=103

[mrmarket]

Does Martha Stewart still own shares of Imclone?

[Jack Haddad]

That's a continuation H&S, not an inverse H&S. The difference is: 1) the former is a consolidation or continuation formation whereas the latter is a reversal formation; and 2) volume in the former follows no pattern whereas in the latter, the left shoulder sees the lightest volume and volume gets higher as the pattern unfolds, with the heaviest volume in the right shoulder.

With TSO there was no pattern to volume in that time period. In fact, volume was very light near the top of the right shoulder.

Though I welcome your input on this, I respectfully disagree.

[DSteckler]

Though I welcome your input on this, I respectfully disagree.

What is your basis for disagreement?

[Jack Haddad]

Does Martha Stewart still own shares of Imclone?

No. Also, to my knowledge, she has been barred by the SEC for 12 months from participating in any new security transactions following her conviction.

[mrmarket]

Jack...I loved your article. Good job!

[Rob]

Does Martha Stewart still own shares of Imclone?I don't think so. (Is she even allowed to?) But Carl Icahn owns ~10% of outstanding shares as a result of recent large purchases.

Edit: just read the article. Good stuff, Jack!

[Jack Haddad]

What is your basis for disagreement?

My disagreement is beyond the scope of this forum. Here, I simply like to post stock trades in as close to real time as possible. Occasionally, when matters get dull, I will discuss technical analysis in anatomical terms.

[DSteckler]

<< If you have an interest in earning a CMT or DITA, the best place to start is by contacting the MTA. >>

Jack, the MTA is no longer the organization to contact for the DITA certification because the MTA is no longer a member of IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysis). The American Association of Professional Technical Analysts (AAPTA) is a Developing Society of IFTA (with membership anticipated late this year) and now the contact organization in the U.S. for IFTA activities.

The DITA certification was replaced with the CFT (Certified Financial Technician) certification in 1996.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought INTC at 17.87, and wrote the June 15.50 calls at .80 cents/call. I will be accumulating shares in a dollar -cost -average pattern at the proper pivatol points.

[Jack Haddad]

<< If you have an interest in earning a CMT or DITA, the best place to start is by contacting the MTA. >>

Jack, the MTA is no longer the organization to contact for the DITA certification because the MTA is no longer a member of IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysis). The American Association of Professional Technical Analysts (AAPTA) is a Developing Society of IFTA (with membership anticipated late this year) and now the contact organization in the U.S. for IFTA activities.

The DITA certification was replaced with the CFT (Certified Financial Technician) certification in 1996.

Thanks for the update. I didn't the change has occured.

[DSteckler]

My disagreement is beyond the scope of this forum. Here, I simply like to post stock trades in as close to real time as possible. Occasionally, when matters get dull, I will discuss technical analysis in anatomical terms.

I'd love to discuss it with you in a private message then, if you'd like. This board offers private messages. I'm a technical analyst and enjoy discussing the subject with others who are skilled in the field.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought INTC at 17.87, and wrote the June 15.50 calls at .80 cents/call. I will be accumulating shares in a dollar -cost -average pattern at the proper pivatol points.

Correction, I meant the June 17.50 calls.

[New-born baby]

Jack,
You are very welcome here, and I look forward to all your posts. Best to you always!

[Jack Haddad]

Jack,
You are very welcome here, and I look forward to all your posts. Best to you always!

Thank you.

[Jack Haddad]

Based on the current technicals, the 6-month chart is showing a solid support of 5.85, though the short and intermediate terms are quite bullish. On May 16, the gap up from 10.93 to 11.70 is very bullish. If the stock close above 12.50, then it stand s a good chance in challenging the 13.75 resistance.

Purchased shares at 11.37, and sold open the June strike 10 calls at 1.80/contract.

[DSteckler]

Based on the current technicals, the 6-month chart is showing a solid support of 5.85, though the short and intermediate terms are quite bullish. On May 16, the gap up from 10.93 to 11.70 is very bullish. If the stock close above 12.50, then it stand s a good chance in challenging the 13.75 resistance.

Purchased shares at 11.37, and sold open the June strike 10 calls at 1.80/contract.

What stock are you talking about?

[Jack Haddad]

What stock are you talking about?

HOM, sorry.

[DSteckler]

HOM should find support at its 20-day EMA...it has every time since February.

[jiesen]

Welcome to the forum, Jack! I look forward to reading all about your picks!

[Jack Haddad]

Intel's restructuring plan which was announced last April is a conglamerate move-- the most significant change since the 1980s-- When the giant chip maker abandoned its main memory chip business to focus on microprocessor chips. The company's broad revamp is aiming for savings. It's a methodical and strategic exercise, rather than an across-the-board cut. For example, the company may look at exiting their high-end microprocessors, dubbed Itanium, on which intel has spent well over 1 billion to develop since 1994. It might also unload its flash memory and communications businesses-- which are all losing money.

Theyre also increasing their long-term investment design in microprocessors. The company is accelerating the timetable for introducing a major design change to its chips to every two years; in the past, Intel has taken 5 to 6 years to introduce a major change to its chip architecture. It's last major design, Pantium 4, was introduced in 2000. Design changes are more than just simple speed upgrades; rather, they involve a complete redesign of how a chip operates. The company will employ several engineering teams that work on different generations of chips in parallel. Currently, Intel has more than 1000 people working on designs for a new kind of product, the Ultra Mobile PC. These are small portable computers, such as Samsung's upcoming Q1, that weigh less than 2 pounds and run the full windows operating system. This new development approach explains why Intel has increased its work-force so dramatically to 103, 700 employees, compared with 87, 100 a year earlier.

Ladies and gentlemen, this strategic move in development is likely to put heavy pressure on rival AMD, which has one-tenth the number of employees that Intel has. I have in the past interviewed fab supervisors, and senior engineer managers at Santa Clara headquarters who told me that Intel executes best when it's under pressure or when it's under a level of danger.

[Jack Haddad]

Today's market strength is strong, but I assure you that there will be pockets of profit taking-- which should provide volatility on a similar calibar that we witnessed this past monday. EBAY is over-extended here. From 33.00 to 33.88, I saw huge blocks covering their short positions. As to INTC, a close above the 17.90 mark is a welcoming sign sustainability.

Happy trading all.

[Jack Haddad]

Welcome to the forum, Jack! I look forward to reading all about your picks!

Thank you.

[IIC]

Welcome Doc.

BTW...speaking of Martha http://www.eonline.com/News/Items/0,1,19115,00.html?fdnews

Best...Doug(IIC)

[sisterwin2]

Welcome Dr. Jack,

I too look forward to reading your picks/post. I am gathering from your post that other then profit taking we may have seen the worse?

enjoyed your write-up.

Good luck and keep posting. Us not so smart pickers need all the help "I" can get. (for free esp.)

[spikefader]

Welcome Jack.

Re the inverted head and shoulders, you're both wrong......jejeje it's really just impulsiveness off a Fuzzy C corrective jejejeje

I'm not kidding either; it really is..but I am kidding really...there are inverted SHS formations, the best looking one from Feb 21 to March 28. But those were preceded by the W at 58.00, so why not throw that into the TA debate too jejeje

And if any Fuzzy C lovers and followers can chart that one for TSO correctly I'll give you an Award of the Day :D And I'll give a hint....there are subwaves to look for and the 'a' is lower than the 'c'. And the 'c' is right where the guys are debating the inverted SHS area; it's one of the shoulders. Shoo, I've surely made it too easy. IIC won't do it, I know that much. He still can't see the value in 'em :D hehe

Anyway Jack, look forward to the thread.

[Runner]

http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/7510/tso8rq.png (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/7510/tso8rq.png (http://imageshack.us)Top marks for effort goes to Runner! Star of the moment hehe

You need to go back in time to the previous set of 5 up. The 5 up you have is the move up off the 'c' I was talking about. So step back 8 weeks. I think that first bar on your chart is the fuzzy 'c', I'll have to check tomorrow...but the 'c' I'm talking about failed initially...then boom, recovered and put in the 5 waves that you labelled.

Hey what's that light blue colored thing on your chart? It happens to be right at another 'c' corrective area.....

[Tatnic]

HOM should find support at its 20-day EMA...it has every time since February.

Interesting company...

[Jack Haddad]

AMD has finally awakened from a week's slump; as I stated yesterday, it was oversold on the weekly charts. If the 32.20 resistance is taken out, the stock has a good chance at establishing a higher support landmark than the current 6-month 29.50 to 30.00

[Jack Haddad]

Exited BA at 83.63. The resistance of 84.50 is scarring me a little. The stock has enjoyed a tremendous run from 70 to 89 in the last 3 months; i think it's out of gas here. Though long-term indicators remain bullish, I'm looking for a short opportunity set-up.

[Jack Haddad]

In the first quarter of 2006, Yahoo generated 29 cents for each daily page view, up from 25 cents the year before and double the level of 2003. Yahoo's search results and internet advertising business has been the recent talk in an extensive presentation betwen Yahoo's executives and analysts. A new advertising technology platform, which will be available towards the end of this summer, will be more lucrative as Yahoo delivers more relevant advertising to people who have used its search engines.

Moreover, Yahoo's new geo-targeting capabilities in the new ad platform could make it more competitive than Google. Yahoo would increase the quality of its search results by incorporating the knowledge of its users. Yahoo siad theyre going to include information from del.icio.us, (its social bookmarking service), and flickr (its photo-sharing site) into its results.

[Jack Haddad]

Technically, the gap down from 40 to 34 back in middle of January of 2006 will fill back violently. The 6- months support landmark is solid at 32.00. For those considering a position while hedging the underlying shares, the 32.50 strike price of september and October is rich in premium. Also, deep in the money hedging on calls for strike price 30 for the months of June throughought August present a great opportunity to earn a premium while waiting for the stock to arise from the summer months of stagnation.

Yahoo's potential upside could be dramatic, especially considering the fact that it's trading at 15 times its estimated 2006 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Words around several brokerage firms have been circulating in speculation that if YHOO remains cheap for much longer, MSFT might buy it-- a megadeal that would rock the on-line world and reward investors.

[Jack Haddad]

Damn, there is a huge gap between the current resistance of 18.27 and the next one of 19.60.

Any thoughts here?

[DSteckler]

The daily chart may be showing a final wash-out below
a 2006 trendline with another high-volume gap-down day, along with 4-month's worth of positive divergence showing on MACD. The weekly chart also shows positive divergence on MACD with higher-lows between 2002-2006, and price currently at 78.6% retracement of the 2002-2003 range.

The monthly chart currently shows RSI cycling low to a point where large reversals occurred in 2002 and 2004. The monthly also shows INTC at the confluence of its 200-month MA and 2001 lows, lows which are still the left-shoulder of a potential very large inverted H&S pattern (although beginning to lose symmetry).

One potential news catalyst for INTC's resurrection is that the company is reported to begin shipping its next-gen 65-nm fab processors next quarter but some are speculating as early as mid-summer.

[Jack Haddad]

Fundamentally speaking, AApl sold 8.5 million ipods in its fiscal second quarter-- a 60 percent leap from the same period a year ago. Also, Apple's computers are less than 5% of the total US market; that said, can you begin to phantom the remaining growth potential?! Accoring research firm NPD, AAPl gained more market share by climbing frmo 71% in december of 2005 to nearly 84% in march of 2006. No wonder why they have already spent 120 million on a new data center to support the second campus that they bought for nearly 500 million. This campus will house as many as 3, 500 employees, said their CFO. Their plan to build a 50-acre second campus signals that their frowing dominance, particularly in the digital era, shall continue.

[Jack Haddad]

The daily chart may be showing a final wash-out below
a 2006 trendline with another high-volume gap-down day, along with 4-month's worth of positive divergence showing on MACD. The weekly chart also shows positive divergence on MACD with higher-lows between 2002-2006, and price currently at 78.6% retracement of the 2002-2003 range.

The monthly chart currently shows RSI cycling low to a point where large reversals occurred in 2002 and 2004. The monthly also shows INTC at the confluence of its 200-month MA and 2001 lows, lows which are still the left-shoulder of a potential very large inverted H&S pattern (although beginning to lose symmetry).

One potential news catalyst for INTC's resurrection is that the company is reported to begin shipping its next-gen 65-nm fab processors next quarter but some are speculating as early as mid-summer.

Thanks...Furthermore, I wonder how their energy chips (Woodcrest, Monroe, and Kenroe) are going to pan out when theyre released in August, September, and November, respectively; theyre supposed to be 40% more energy efficient and much faster then their current ones.

I've been in close touch with several of their top level managers and employees. They all concede that AMD has finally gained on their competetive turf-- both a cost as well as a technology advantage! INTC"S Santa Clara Fab Building, known as D2, must go! The company admitted that its operation is too costy and too expensive to re-tool.

[Lyehopper]

Welcome to the forum Jack. Do you have experience with bovine veterinary practices?

Have you ever used "The VTP" to assist you in sorting and timing your trades?

And thirdly.... I'd like to invite you to play the POTW with "us" (about 30 of your fellow $$MM$$ members) weekly.... You can find the contest on BillyJoe's "Portfolio of the week" thread. Rockin'Rob is the current scorekeeper and a set of rules can be found at the bottom of any of his posts.... mmmm Hmmmm.....

[Jack Haddad]

Fundamentally speaking, AApl sold 8.5 million ipods in its fiscal second quarter-- a 60 percent leap from the same period a year ago. Also, Apple's computers are less than 5% of the total US market; that said, can you begin to phantom the remaining growth potential?! Accoring research firm NPD, AAPl gained more market share by climbing frmo 71% in december of 2005 to nearly 84% in march of 2006. No wonder why they have already spent 120 million on a new data center to support the second campus that they bought for nearly 500 million. This campus will house as many as 3, 500 employees, said their CFO. Their plan to build a 50-acre second campus signals that their frowing dominance, particularly in the digital era, shall continue.

Moreover,traditionally, Apple has always found a strong customer base among school districts and universities. However, with Apple's new MacBook laptop containing Intel's chip, they are beginning to gain in the US education market. This move will dramatically boost sales of Apple's sales-- which make up less than 5% of the US market.

The technicals may seem ill momentarily, but this is one stock that I would be afraid to short.

[peanuts]

Moreover,traditionally, Apple has always found a strong customer base among school districts and universities. However, with Apple's new MacBook laptop containing Intel's chip, they are beginning to gain in the US education market. This move will dramatically boost sales of Apple's sales-- which make up less than 5% of the US market.

The technicals may seem ill momentarily, but this is one stock that I would be afraid to short.

I like apples. What's a good price to get in? In a few years, it won't matter what price I buy at today... but in the few weeks after I buy, I don't want to second guess my decision. Know what I mean?

[Jack Haddad]

Welcome to the forum Jack. Do you have experience with bovine veterinary practices?

Have you ever used "The VTP" to assist you in sorting and timing your trades?

And thirdly.... I'd like to invite you to play the POTW with "us" (about 30 of your fellow $$MM$$ members) weekly.... You can find the contest on BillyJoe's "Portfolio of the week" thread. Rockin'Rob is the current scorekeeper and a set of rules can be found at the bottom of any of his posts.... mmmm Hmmmm.....

As an orthopedic surgeon, I have very little association with Bovine veterinary practices. Nevertheless, familialarity with the farms and patterns of disease in their area and the potential to provide a cost-effective method of disease surveillance is of prime importance...

I don't use VTP in any of my trade decisions. And I will consider your invitation in regards to the POTW. I just have 1 zillion things that I'm doing.

[Jack Haddad]

Purchased AAPL at 63.33 for a scalp; oversold on the hourly.

[Jack Haddad]

I like apples. What's a good price to get in? In a few years, it won't matter what price I buy at today... but in the few weeks after I buy, I don't want to second guess my decision. Know what I mean?

LOl... I'm in for a 30 to 40 cent scalp. We'll see. If my trade does not pan out, then I will hold the position and hedge it. Once again, I never set stop losses-- a gesture which goes against the priniciple of many seasoned professionals.

[Jack Haddad]

Purchased AAPL at 63.33 for a scalp; oversold on the hourly.

Exited AAPL at 63.54

[peanuts]

Exited AAPL at 63.54

Do you have multiple accounts? How do you get around the round trips? I thought you could only have 5 in and outs per 5 days

[Lyehopper]

Nevertheless, familialarity with the farms and patterns of disease in their area and the potential to provide a cost-effective method of disease surveillance is of prime importance....
I wholeheartedly agree.... Surveillance, Inoculation and Quarantine is essential.... A healthy herd is a happy herd.... A happy herd is a productive herd.

I don't use VTP in any of my trade decisions.
The VTP takes some time to understand Doc, so I see why you aren't currently using it.....

And I will consider your invitation in regards to the POTW.
GREAT!.... Look forward to your picks in the POTW.... Now Doc?.... About that bum shoulder of mine.... Can rotator cuff damage ever heal? or am I doomed to live with this pain forever.... OH! and speaking of pain relief.... Have you ever had a taste of "The GoJi"?

[Jack Haddad]

Do you have multiple accounts? How do you get around the round trips? I thought you could only have 5 in and outs per 5 days


I do. In addition to the hedge fund and my personal account, I manage small proprietary accounts/endowments. As to to the 4 intra-day trades per week, I believe youre referring to PDT (pattern day trader), no? So long as you have 25k or more in an account, you can trade without limitations or reservations.

[peanuts]

I do. In addition to the hedge fund and my personal account, I manage small proprietary accounts/endowments. As to to the 4 intra-day trades per week, I believe youre referring to PDT (pattern day trader), no? So long as you have 25k or more in an account, you can trade without limitations or reservations.

oh, OK, how many accounts do you manage? Are you sitting in front of 5 monitors or something?

Yes, PDT, that's what I was referring to. I try to avoid that.

[Jack Haddad]

oh, OK, how many accounts do you manage? Are you sitting in front of 5 monitors or something?

Yes, PDT, that's what I was referring to. I try to avoid that.

At Merrill, I use three. At home, I use 7.

[Jack Haddad]

I wholeheartedly agree.... Surveillance, Inoculation and Quarantine is essential.... A healthy herd is a happy herd.... A happy herd is a productive herd.


The VTP takes some time to understand Doc, so I see why you aren't currently using it.....


GREAT!.... Look forward to your picks in the POTW.... Now Doc?.... About that bum shoulder of mine.... Can rotator cuff damage ever heal? or am I doomed to live with this pain forever.... OH! and speaking of pain relief.... Have you ever had a taste of "The GoJi"?

In order to ascertain healing, I have to ask if you had received conservative treatments or surgical interventions. Also, what is the degree of the rotator cuff tear? My first line of treatment immediately following the injury is RICE (rest, ice, compression, and elevation), regardles of the severity of the injury. Thereafter, I would compare the results between the base-line MRI of your initial visit to the post-follow up appointment. If the inflammation has not decreased, I would place you on prednisone- a powerful anti-inflammatory. I would also assess the range of motion of your joint. If youre a high power athlete who makes a living secondary to a sport, then I would operate immediately. I always recommend that patients exhaust every conservative mean before resorting to any surgical procedure. Physical therapy and weight bearing exercises have also proved very efficacious in clinical research trials.

[mrmarket]

About 6 weeks ago, I was doing bench press exercise and was
completing my 5th rep at 335 lbs when it felt like something
inside "pulled" away from my left elbow. I was able to finish the
rep but since then have had pain doing any kind of arm extension
exercise (with the exception of shoulder presses. It is also very
painful when I rotate my wrist inward, while outward rotation has no
pain).

Anyway I went and got an X-Ray and my doc said the bones were ok but
that I probably partially tore a tendon. He said these things heal
on their own. Now I'm getting bummed out because I can't work out
with any heavy weights and my triceps are shrinking rapidly!

Anyway, how long does it typically take for these injuries to heal
are there any ways to accelerate the recovery. Can anyone direct me to a good physical therapy program?

[Jack Haddad]

Purchased 5 blocks at 63.33 and sold 500 June 62.50 calls for 2.60/contract. The stock has not participated in the recernt 3-day rally and is due for a pop-- all the reason to guarantee my deep in the money hedge and pocket a nice premium return upon June option expiration in three weeks.

[Lyehopper]

In order to ascertain healing, I have to ask if you had received conservative treatments or surgical interventions. Also, what is the degree of the rotator cuff tear? My first line of treatment immediately following the injury is RICE (rest, ice, compression, and elevation), regardles of the severity of the injury. Thereafter, I would compare the results between the base-line MRI of your initial visit to the post-follow up appointment. If the inflammation has not decreased, I would place you on prednisone- a powerful anti-inflammatory. I would also assess the range of motion of your joint. If youre a high power athlete who makes a living secondary to a sport, then I would operate immediately. I always recommend that patients exhaust every conservative mean before resorting to any surgical procedure. Physical therapy and weight bearing exercises have also proved very efficacious in clinical research trials.
Both of my shoulders hurt.... But the right one is worse. I've had no surgery but I was given some exercises by a therapist to do once and I do them sometimes but I don't see how that helps. As a farmer I constantly do physical labor and there's no way around that for me.

No single event is responsible for the damage. In the early 90's I was heavily into archery. I shot a 70# pull compound bow (sometimes over a thousand times per week) for a few years. Finally the pain caused me to back off on the weight of the pull and later I just stopped it completely. 800Mg Ibuprofen seems to dull the pain but I hate to take it regularly. I think I may be predisposed to joint problems because my sister (Age 51)and my mother both have major knee problems (Mama refuses any treatment as she hates doctors). My sister has had one knee replacement done and is scheduled for the second. My knees don't give me a lot of problems (yet) but my elbows, feet and ankles hurt some, The Ibuprofen seems to help that some too. I guess at 43 years old I'm just falling apart.LOL

btw.... I'm 6'2" and weigh about 300#'s.... Maybe if I lost 60 pounds that might help my feet and ankles....

[Jack Haddad]

About 6 weeks ago, I was doing bench press exercise and was
completing my 5th rep at 335 lbs when it felt like something
inside "pulled" away from my left elbow. I was able to finish the
rep but since then have had pain doing any kind of arm extension
exercise (with the exception of shoulder presses. It is also very
painful when I rotate my wrist inward, while outward rotation has no
pain).

Anyway I went and got an X-Ray and my doc said the bones were ok but
that I probably partially tore a tendon. He said these things heal
on their own. Now I'm getting bummed out because I can't work out
with any heavy weights and my triceps are shrinking rapidly!

Anyway, how long does it typically take for these injuries to heal
are there any ways to accelerate the recovery. Can anyone direct me to a good physical therapy program?

The mechanism of the injury you described is very strange... Usually, injuries resulting from bench press exercises commonly involve the Pectoralis major (chest muscle). The location and manner in which you described your pain, it appears that you have injured the extensor tendons of either your upper or lower arm. Where is exactly the pain centered? Is it below or above the elbow joint? The fact that youre able to perform inward rotation of your wrist without experiencing pain, I'm more inclined to suspect that it's your lower extensors.

I have several concerns here... First, since a fracture was successfully ruled out, I would have ordered an MRI to rule out the possibility of any soft tissue injury (muscle, tendon, cartilage). An X-ray does not reveal soft tissue damage with the exception of increased density, indicative of injury. However, an MRI is the "gold-standard" for viewing muscles and tendons because these stuctures are highly vascular in nature. So, you need an MRI to assess the exact location of your injury. One may palpate for physical signs, but ultimately an MRI is needed. Bare in mind, it's difficult to obtain one, especially at money -profit organizations (kaiser and most HMOs) because docs who are employed at such institutions are given incentive bonuses for reducing operational costs. An MRI runs between 700 to 3000 dollars.

Second, who saw you? Was it primary care specialist? An ER doc? Or an orthopedist? An orthopedist with a sports medicine fellowship is best qualified for your type of injury.

I'm located in San Jose, CA. We have several world-renowned physical therapy center-- Palo Alto Medical Foundation is one that I highly recommend.

Keep me posted on your progress.

[peanuts]

I'm located in San Jose, CA. We have several world-renowned physical therapy center-- Palo Alto Medical Foundation is one that I highly recommend.


Do you know a Dr. Cindy A., recently had a boy, anesthesiologist, worked at Stanford?

This could be a small world

[Jack Haddad]

Tol is particularly attrative at the levels because it will most likely be snatched by another company. And the CEO indicated so several weeks ago in a Barron's article. I like the housing sector because trading at 6.5 times 2007 estimated earnings is a steal! I'm carefully looking to spot consolidation/basing so that I could establish a longer hold core. The hourly chart has strengthened, and I'm so tempted to buy on strength at these levels. Shorterm support may hold at 27.50.

[Jack Haddad]

Do you know a Dr. Cindy A., recently had a boy, anesthesiologist, worked at Stanford?

This could be a small world

No I don't. I'm mainly affiliated with hosptials of the north and east bay area.

[Jack Haddad]

Tol is particularly attrative at the levels because it will most likely be snatched by another company. And the CEO indicated so several weeks ago in a Barron's article. I like the housing sector because trading at 6.5 times 2007 estimated earnings is a steal! I'm carefully looking to spot consolidation/basing so that I could establish a longer hold core. The hourly chart has strengthened, and I'm so tempted to buy on strength at these levels. Shorterm support may hold at 27.50.

Decided to go with HOV instead. Snatched 3 blocks at 32.90 and wrote 300 June 30 calls for 3.40 in hope that my shares will get called away. I'll take
.50/contract for a return.

[DSteckler]

Tol is particularly attrative at the levels because it will most likely be snatched by another company. And the CEO indicated so several weeks ago in a Barron's article. I like the housing sector because trading at 6.5 times 2007 estimated earnings is a steal! I'm carefully looking to spot consolidation/basing so that I could establish a longer hold core. The hourly chart has strengthened, and I'm so tempted to buy on strength at these levels. Shorterm support may hold at 27.50.

Resistance at the 20-day EMA (turned TOL back in late April and early May). It needs to close above the EMA to get things rolling again.

[spikefader]

Interesting reading thus far Jack, thanks for sharing. Your first AAPL trade...is that price you quoted a typo or has Karel changed the clock settings for post times? I guess I'll find out when I post this heh.

Jack, do you trade futures too?

Oh, and edit: What are you thoughts about significant bottom being in now?

EDIT: The post times are off; Karel's new java changes must have resent my options or something? Anyway karel, I like the new changes; much more efficient and faster is what I've notices. Thanks; you're huge.

[Jack Haddad]

Both of my shoulders hurt.... But the right one is worse. I've had no surgery but I was given some exercises by a therapist to do once and I do them sometimes but I don't see how that helps. As a farmer I constantly do physical labor and there's no way around that for me.

No single event is responsible for the damage. In the early 90's I was heavily into archery. I shot a 70# pull compound bow (sometimes over a thousand times per week) for a few years. Finally the pain caused me to back off on the weight of the pull and later I just stopped it completely. 800Mg Ibuprofen seems to dull the pain but I hate to take it regularly. I think I may be predisposed to joint problems because my sister (Age 51)and my mother both have major knee problems (Mama refuses any treatment as she hates doctors). My sister has had one knee replacement done and is scheduled for the second. My knees don't give me a lot of problems (yet) but my elbows, feet and ankles hurt some, The Ibuprofen seems to help that some too. I guess at 43 years old I'm just falling apart.LOL

btw.... I'm 6'2" and weigh about 300#'s.... Maybe if I lost 60 pounds that might help my feet and ankles....

It appears that your shoulders are the victim of an over-use syndrome; perhaps, you conduct a particular task which requires you to use the same range of motion on your shoulders repeatedly. For example, you stated bowing. Or maybe it's another routine farming activity. These days, we see a lot of kids with first metacarpal- joint (joints of the thumb) pain due to hours spent on playing video games. The game's joystick require the user to constantly move their thumbs, resulting in over-use syndrome of that joint.
Similarly, we see it in adults who are addicted to hand-held electronic gadgets.

Though youre experiencing pain, I encourage you to still exercise the joints. I prefer weight bearing exercises against resistance. Studies show that weight bearing exercises stimulate the chondrocytes (bone cells responsible for bone formation) which increase your bone and cartilage matrix. Also, resistance exercises stimulate the health of your bones and joints because of the electromagnetic charge effect. When bone is compressed or pressured, you generate negative ion charges. Have you heard of the PEMF (pulsed electromagnetic field stimulation) technology? It has been used in the orthopedic community for nearly 20 years. I'm currently conducting clinical trials on a new device invented by a russian scientist. Youre welcome to read our literature review. Here is the link:

file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Owner/My%20Documents/article.html

[Jack Haddad]

Interesting reading thus far Jack, thanks for sharing. Your first AAPL trade...is that price you quoted a typo or has Karel changed the clock settings for post times? I guess I'll find out when I post this heh.

Jack, do you trade futures too?

Oh, and edit: What are you thoughts about significant bottom being in now?

EDIT: The post times are off; Karel's new java changes must have resent my options or something? Anyway karel, I like the new changes; much more efficient and faster is what I've notices. Thanks; you're huge.

I'm not aware of any error in price which I posted on both AAPL transactions, the earlier scalp and the latter 5 blocks.

AS to futures, I'm not involed in them. Maybe in the future to come.:) And are you referring to a merket bottom in general or a particular index bottom?

[sisterwin2]

WOW, not only sharing his picks but free medical assessments too.
You should open a business of ortho with free stock picks for those who are compliant!

[Jack Haddad]

WOW, not only sharing his picks but free medical assessments too.
You should open a business of ortho with free stock picks for those who are compliant!

I hear ya Dena...LOL If I ever leave medicine completely to commence my own proprietary hedge fund, it will be due to two reasons: 1. Non-compliant patients, and 2. Administrative members (two -year business degree, if that) on an insurance company panel who dictate to me what procedure my patients need and dont need. I'm sick and tired of being humiliated like that; these crooks are essentially practicing medicine without a license while I spent nearly 4 years of undergrad, 4 years of medical school, 5 years of a surgical residency, and 1 year of followship. LOL...

Have a great weekend everyone.

[Lyehopper]

Anyway karel, I like the new changes; much more efficient and faster is what I've notices. Thanks; you're huge.
I especially like the red X's!!!! They bring an element of "mystery" to the forum....

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/7586/x9bc.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

I hear ya Dena...LOL If I ever leave medicine completely to commence my own proprietary hedge fund, it will be due to two reasons: 1. Non-compliant patients, and 2. Administrative members (two -year business degree, if that) on an insurance company panel who dictate to me what procedure my patients need and dont need. I'm sick and tired of being humiliated like that; these crooks are essentially practicing medicine without a license while I spent nearly 4 years of undergrad, 4 years of medical school, 5 years of a surgical residency, and 1 year of followship. LOL...

Have a great weekend everyone.
Gosh Jack!..... And to think.... You could have become a cattle farmer with a C minus high "skrool" grade average like I did..... And you wouldn't have all those headaches dude!.... Now I don't want you to think I'm stupid or anything.... I did get an "A" in metal shop once....

[peanuts]

Oh, and edit: What are you thoughts about significant bottom being in now?


You didn't ask me, but I want to chime in here: I don't know about a bottom recently, it is possible, but what I want to bring to the table is this: Goto stockcharts and put in the 13 day moving average and look at SPX, INDU, and COMPQ... not one of them was able to surpass the 13 day moving average today... We need to blast through them on Monday or I would be worried that another "bottom" might happen...

I am also concerned that we are green on lower volume.

here a link to the chart I use: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=5&id=p65139022196

damn market has me spooked

[Websman]

As an orthopedic surgeon, I have very little association with Bovine veterinary practices. Nevertheless, familialarity with the farms and patterns of disease in their area and the potential to provide a cost-effective method of disease surveillance is of prime importance...

I don't use VTP in any of my trade decisions. And I will consider your invitation in regards to the POTW. I just have 1 zillion things that I'm doing.

Cool...an Orthopedic surgeon!

Ok Jack...Here's my story. At the young age of 14 (1979) I had an operation performed on my left knee By Dr Robert Goodman in Lexington Kentucky. The injury consisted of an avulsion of the tibial tubercle with rupture of the medial collateral ligament. There was also some disruption of the posterior medial aspect of the capsule.

After I was prepped for surgery, Dr Goodman made an 8" lazy s-incision over the medial aspect of the left knee, which was carried down to the level of the retinaculum. The retinaculum appeared to be intact, but there was a small puncture hole about the size of a finger tip on the posterior medial aspect of the capsule which went right through retinaculum into the joint space. Then the incision was carried on through the retinaculum and was reflected by blunt dissection. At this time, it was obvious that I had an avulsion of the deep part of the medial collateral ligament in its lower third portion. At this time attention was turned to the joint and a 6 cm parapatellar incision was made through the retinaculum, capsular and synovial structures. At this time it was obvious that I had a small 1 cm trinagular avulsion of the anterior tibial tubercle with base being anteriorly. The anterior cruciate was intact other than being disrupted at this point and a repair was then undertaken. At this time then two drill holes were made with a 7/16th drill approximately 1 1/2 cms below the joint line and medial to the patellar tendon. Then through a pole wire technique a 0 silk suture was passed through and then looped through the anterior cruciate ligament twice and then with the leg in approximately 10 degrees of flexion and internally rotated the anterior cruciate and the bony avulsion was then back in position. The synovial structure was repaired with 2-0 plain and capsular structures were reapproximated with 2-0 chromic. Then attention was turned to the medial collateral ligament. A small Boyd staple was then passed through the deep portion of the medial collateral ligament and replaced upon the medial femoral condyle. This concluded repairs and the joint was closed up in the ordinary manner.

So...I had this procedure and was told that my knee would be 100% again. To this date I have not gained full flexibility of this particular joint, plus on occasion, I suffer from serious cramping of my knee at night. Other than that, it works fine.

Dr Jack...this operation was performed quite a few years ago. Would you consider the techiniques I just described as being antiquated or obsolete? Is it possible to ever regain full flexibility in this joint?

Just wondering...

By the way, Welcome to the board. Enough of the medical talk...Let's talk trading!

[Lyehopper]

Cool...an Orthopedic surgeon!

Ok Jack...Here's my story. At the young age of 14 (1979) I had an operation performed on my left knee By Dr Robert Goodman in Lexington Kentucky. The injury consisted of an avulsion of the tibial tubercle with rupture of the medial collateral ligament. There was also some disruption of the posterior medial aspect of the capsule.

After I was prepped for surgery, Dr Goodman made an 8" lazy s-incision over the medial aspect of the left knee, which was carried down to the level of the retinaculum. The retinaculum appeared to be intact, but there was a small punture hole about the size of a finger tip on the poterior medial aspect of the capsule which went right through retinaculum into the joint space. Then the incision was carried on through the retinaculum and was reflected by blunt dissection. At this time, it was obvious that I had an avulsion of the deep part of the medial collateral ligament in its lower third portion. At this time attention was turned to the joint and a 6 cm parapatellar incision was made through the retinaculum, capsular and synovial structures. At this time it was obvious that I had a small 1 cm trinagular avulsion of the anterior tibial tubercle with base being anteriorly. The anterior cruciate was intact other than being disruptered at this point and a repair was then undertaken. At this time then two drill holes were made with a 7/16th drill approximately 1 1/2 cms below the joint line and medial to the patellar tendon. Then thorugh a pole wire technique a 0 silk suture was passed through and then looped through the anterior cruciate ligament twice and then with the leg in approximately 10 degrees of flexion and internally rotated the anterior crucite and the bony avulsion was then back in position. The synovial structure was repaired with 2-0 plain and capsular strucutres were reapproximated with 2-0 chromic. Then attention was turned to the medial collateral ligament. A small Boyd staple was then passed through the deep portion of the medial collateral ligament and replaced upon the medial femoral condyle. This concluded repairs and the joint was closed up in the ordinary manner.

So...I had this procedure and was told that my knee would be 100% again. To this date I have not gained full flexibility of this particular joint, plus on occasion, I suffer from serious cramping of my knee at night. Other than that, it works fine.

Dr Jack...this operation was peformed quite a few years ago. Would you consider the techiniques I just described as being antiquated or obsolete? Is it possible to ever regain full flexibility in this joint?

Just wondering...

By the way, Welcome to the board. Enough of the medical talk...Let's talk trading!
I'm very impressed that Dr. Goodman used both standard and metric measurements while doing your surgery. This proves his versatility I think.... Or maybe he studied in Europe or Asia.

[lemonjello]

According to my diagnosis, your problem obviously results from an alien implant! Do you feel as if you've recently been "probed"?

-Alien Probing Sequence -

http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/6728/cartmanprobe6nn.jpg (http://imageshack.us) http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/6270/cartmanprobeflame7ru.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Yours in extra-terrestrial medicine,

Dr. Jello

Cool...an Orthopedic surgeon!

So...I had this procedure and was told that my knee would be 100% again. To this date I have not gained full flexibility of this particular joint, plus on occasion, I suffer from serious cramping of my knee at night. Other than that, it works fine.

Dr Jack...this operation was peformed quite a few years ago. Would you consider the techiniques I just described as being antiquated or obsolete? Is it possible to ever regain full flexibility in this joint?

Just wondering...

By the way, Welcome to the board. Enough of the medical talk...Let's talk trading!

[skiracer]

I'm very impressed that Dr. Goodman used both standard and metric measurements while doing your surgery. This proves his versatility I think.... Or maybe he studied in Europe or Asia.

I am quite impressed myself with both of those techniques. Utilizing both standard and metric measurements while doing surgery is like rubbing your stomach and patting your head at the same time. A large number of surgeons never attain that degree of sophistication in hand to eye coordination yet with the degree of ambidextrous manipulation of both the right and left sides of their brains in pursueing dual measurements at the same time on the same patient. I'm convinced that Dr. Goodman did in fact study in Europe, specifically Paris, an that he left a small vial of parfume somewhere in Webs anatomy leaving him with that unsatiable desire to keep returning to Paris. We all know of his lingering infatuation with Paris and his trips there. There is one known cure for all stiffiinning of the joints but is so rare nowadays that only the very rich or powerful can get their hands on it. It's known as Dr. Gura's two ball compound but it is in very limited supply now.
Perhaps a jug of VSOG (very special old goji) might do the trick.

[Karel]

... EDIT: The post times are off; Karel's new java changes must have resent my options or something? Anyway karel, I like the new changes; much more efficient and faster is what I've notices. Thanks; you're huge.Thanks, I'll inform Richard of your compliments: he did the upgrade. When you are logged in (and you were logged in) and the times seem off, check the options in the User CP for the time zone setting.

When you are not logged in, you get to see the standard board time, which was off (Greenwich Mean Time). I have changed it to Eastern Time (GMT-5), with DST.

Regards,

Karel

[IIC]

Geez...Sounds like everyone is falling apart around here...Lucky Doc joined before we lost a few.

Anyway, my personal philosphy is "Don't get sick and Don't get hurt"...I have a personal mantra which I say out loud to myself 20x three times a day:

"Everyday In Every Way I'm Getting Better And Better"

Last time I was sick was in 1981 when I got the flu...Last time I got hurt was 1973 when I pulled a hamstring...Mind over Matter...Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

I am quite impressed myself with both of those techniques. Utilizing both standard and metric measurements while doing surgery is like rubbing your stomach and patting your head at the same time. A large number of surgeons never attain that degree of sophistication in hand to eye coordination yet with the degree of ambidextrous manipulation of both the right and left sides of their brains in pursueing dual measurements at the same time on the same patient. I'm convinced that Dr. Goodman did in fact study in Europe, specifically Paris, an that he left a small vial of parfume somewhere in Webs anatomy leaving him with that unsatiable desire to keep returning to Paris. We all know of his lingering infatuation with Paris and his trips there. There is one known cure for all stiffiinning of the joints but is so rare nowadays that only the very rich or powerful can get their hands on it. It's known as Dr. Gura's two ball compound but it is in very limited supply now.
Perhaps a jug of VSOG (very special old goji) might do the trick.LOL!!!! You are indeed very wise "Dr. Gura".... Your ability to discern and unravel complex matters such as this are only surpassed by your extraordinary stock picking prowess.... This insightful post will be instrumental in moving you up a notch in the "inner circle".jejeje....errrrrrrrr.hic....je

[Lyehopper]

Geez...Sounds like everyone is falling apart around here...Lucky Doc joined before we lost a few.

Anyway, my personal philosphy is "Don't get sick and Don't get hurt"...I have a personal mantra which I say out loud to myself 20x three times a day:

"Everyday In Every Way I'm Getting Better And Better"

Last time I was sick was in 1981 when I got the flu...Last time I got hurt was 1973 when I pulled a hamstring...Mind over Matter...Doug(IIC)
I made a special flat trailer hitch that fits in the "Reese" receiver on my F-350. The hitch is very heavy duty and extends out about an extra foot further than a regular hitch. I use it to tow my "Tube Line Bale wrapper" http://www.tubeline.ca/ , my hay wagons, grain wagons etc.... I was wrapping haylege till about 11:30PM yesterday (Thursday) evening. I was tired and it was dark and the plastic wrap had just run out on my wrapper. I got out of my tractor and as I walked around the back of my truck to get a box of plastic film.... I hit my shin on that #&%@ hitch and fell forward into the hayfield. OOOOOOUCH!!!! There is an indention in my left leg STILL....

Doug, if you haven't been hurt since 1973 it's because you don't get out enough DUDE! You need to come down here and work for me for a few weeks..... I'll bet you've never been kicked by a five-weight steer right in the thigh before have you? Boy! Some fellas just live a sheltered life I guess.

[spikefader]

I especially like the red X's!!!! They bring an element of "mystery" to the forum....

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/7586/x9bc.png (http://imageshack.us)
People always focus on the negatives! Shoo! jeje

[spikefader]

I'm not aware of any error in price which I posted on both AAPL transactions, the earlier scalp and the latter 5 blocks.

AS to futures, I'm not involed in them. Maybe in the future to come.:) And are you referring to a merket bottom in general or a particular index bottom?It was a simple forum issue Jack. I was an hour out so disregard my question.

I was referring to bottom in general for INDU COMPX and SPX. I have TA reason to believe that we have a major bottom in and just wondered about your own thoughts.

And by the way, your AAPL trade prompted me to look at it, and I think it's a gem right now. Thanks for the heads up.

[skiracer]

LOL!!!! You are indeed very wise "Dr. Gura".... Your ability to discern and unravel complex matters such as this are only surpassed by your extraordinary stock picking prowess.... This insightful post will be instrumental in moving you up a notch in the "inner circle".jejeje....errrrrrrrr.hic....je

Well thank you Lye. It is so wonderful to be recognized. To move up a notch in the VTP inner circle will be up there with all of the most significant accompolishments in my lifetime. to quote Sally Fields, "they do love me".

[skiracer]

LOL!!!! You are indeed very wise "Dr. Gura".... Your ability to discern and unravel complex matters such as this are only surpassed by your extraordinary stock picking prowess.... This insightful post will be instrumental in moving you up a notch in the "inner circle".jejeje....errrrrrrrr.hic....je

Well thank you Lye. It is so wonderful to be recognized. To move up a notch in the VTP inner circle will be up there with all of the most significant accompolishments in my lifetime. to quote Sally Fields, "they do love me".

[IIC]

I made a special flat trailer hitch that fits in the "Reese" receiver on my F-350. The hitch is very heavy duty and extends out about an extra foot further than a regular hitch. I use it to tow my "Tube Line Bale wrapper" http://www.tubeline.ca/ , my hay wagons, grain wagons etc.... I was wrapping haylege till about 11:30PM yesterday (Thursday) evening. I was tired and it was dark and the plastic wrap had just run out on my wrapper. I got out of my tractor and as I walked around the back of my truck to get a box of plastic film.... I hit my shin on that #&%@ hitch and fell forward into the hayfield. OOOOOOUCH!!!! There is an indention in my left leg STILL....

Doug, if you haven't been hurt since 1973 it's because you don't get out enough DUDE! You need to come down here and work for me for a few weeks..... I'll bet you've never been kicked by a five-weight steer right in the thigh before have you? Boy! Some fellas just live a sheltered life I guess.

Now why would I want to get in the way of some dumb cow? However, in Yellowstone in 1969 I touched a wild bear...Nothing happened...Doug

[Websman]

I usually get injured at least once a year. This past year, I dropped 6 feet off of a ladder after the step broke on me. I was brusied from head to toe. The year before I broke a finger with a pipe wrench...jejeje

[RL]

If It looks dangerous I let my bride do It,The last time I was hurt was this past new years In my stocking feet reached for a beer slipped kicked the fridge and broke a toe.Now when I want anything I just order my wife to get It for me my jaw has still not healed one time I did touch a Skunks tail.

[billyjoe]

Lye,
Last year I had a similar encounter with a hitch and it was more painful than childbirth.
billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

I usually get injured at least once a year. This past year, I dropped 6 feet off of a ladder after the step broke on me. I was brusied from head to toe. The year before I broke a finger with a pipe wrench...jejeje
LOL!.... You sound like me dude. I walked into a cross member in my barn at about forhead level last year at full stride and about broke my freakin' neck (I was carring something and I was looking down and forgot to duck, It knocked me to my knees)..... I was also thrown from my four wheel'r last year (700cc). I flew through the air and fell flat on my back. It knocked me out for a while. I came to and laughed as I layed on the ground because I couldn't beleive I was actually alive.

I have twelve weaned steer calves (about seven-weights) in a barn lot and I feed then grain every day. I just fed them before I came to the house for lunch just now. I pour the grain in a long feed trough and they line up in a row to eat.... A crazy thought came to me as I watched them eating. I thought how easy it would be to just run up behind one and jump on his back "Steve McQueen style" and see how long I could stay on.LOL!.... I thought about for about a minute and then I laughed to myself.... I decided I'm just too old for that kinda stuff anymore.... So I didn't.

[IIC]

You guys should be more careful...Now I could see Webs gettin' hurt once in a while...Never know when Bubba might go wacko when someone slurps his soup in the prison mess hall...But I think Lye oughtta retire.

I've been in many close calls over the years though...One time I bot this book about hiking trails in the San Gabriel Mountains...It was 1990 and my son was 10 so I picked an Easy one...When we got to the trailhead there was a sign that said something like DANGER...Trail washed out...DO NOT ENTER!!!

Well we did anyway...I had on some old tennis shoes and we got to a point where the trail was sorta gone...It was about a 300 foot drop to one side so I told him to be careful. Wouldn't you know it...I slipped and started sliding towards the edge...Fortunately I grabbed a little plant. So I'm laying there asking him to grab my other hand but he wouldn't do it. I was able climb up on my belly and all was OK...When we walked back to the car I asked him why he wouldn't grab my hand?...He said..."Because I wasn't gonna go over the cliff with you".

I've had a few other hiking "Near Disasters" but never actually got hurt.

I just remembered that I cut my hand on a knife in 1983 and had to go to the emergency hospital for some stitches. The only other times I had to go to the emergency room was when I got stung by some Portuguese Man 'O Wars in Galveston and I got bit by a dog both in 1961...I had to get shots both times....Doug

[Websman]

LOL!.... You sound like me dude. I walked into a cross member in my barn at about forhead level last year at full stride and about broke my freakin' neck (I was carring something and I was looking down and forgot to duck, It knocked me to my knees)..... I was also thrown from my four wheel'r last year (700cc). I flew through the air and fell flat on my back. It knocked me out for a while. I came to and laughed as I layed on the ground because I couldn't beleive I was actually alive.

I have twelve weaned steer calves (about seven-weights) in a barn lot and I feed then grain every day. I just fed them before I came to the house for lunch just now. I pour the grain in a long feed trough and they line up in a row to eat.... A crazy thought came to me as I watched them eating. I thought how easy it would be to just run up behind one and jump on his back "Steve McQueen style" and see how long I could stay on.LOL!.... I thought about for about a minute and then I laughed to myself.... I decided I'm just too old for that kinda stuff anymore.... So I didn't.

Dude, I just got off the roof...being it's a metal roof, I have to check the screws every few years to make sure they're tight. I didn't get hurt this time, but I'm soaked in sweat. I'm not afraid of work.

Maybe we can have a calve riding competion sometime. I might do a little better, since I'm half your size.
Yea...that's it. A Vulcan calf rider competition.

Dang... I think we've hijacked the Doc's thread. Sorry Doc. LOL

[Jack Haddad]

You didn't ask me, but I want to chime in here: I don't know about a bottom recently, it is possible, but what I want to bring to the table is this: Goto stockcharts and put in the 13 day moving average and look at SPX, INDU, and COMPQ... not one of them was able to surpass the 13 day moving average today... We need to blast through them on Monday or I would be worried that another "bottom" might happen...

I am also concerned that we are green on lower volume.

here a link to the chart I use: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=5&id=p65139022196

damn market has me spooked

We had 3 consecutive rally days last week... Come this Tuesday, I'd like to see another 1.2 to 1.5 percent increase in any of the indexes (preferably the Dow) on heavier volume before I can say that a lower bottom is due.

[Jack Haddad]

Cool...an Orthopedic surgeon!

Ok Jack...Here's my story. At the young age of 14 (1979) I had an operation performed on my left knee By Dr Robert Goodman in Lexington Kentucky. The injury consisted of an avulsion of the tibial tubercle with rupture of the medial collateral ligament. There was also some disruption of the posterior medial aspect of the capsule.

After I was prepped for surgery, Dr Goodman made an 8" lazy s-incision over the medial aspect of the left knee, which was carried down to the level of the retinaculum. The retinaculum appeared to be intact, but there was a small puncture hole about the size of a finger tip on the posterior medial aspect of the capsule which went right through retinaculum into the joint space. Then the incision was carried on through the retinaculum and was reflected by blunt dissection. At this time, it was obvious that I had an avulsion of the deep part of the medial collateral ligament in its lower third portion. At this time attention was turned to the joint and a 6 cm parapatellar incision was made through the retinaculum, capsular and synovial structures. At this time it was obvious that I had a small 1 cm trinagular avulsion of the anterior tibial tubercle with base being anteriorly. The anterior cruciate was intact other than being disrupted at this point and a repair was then undertaken. At this time then two drill holes were made with a 7/16th drill approximately 1 1/2 cms below the joint line and medial to the patellar tendon. Then through a pole wire technique a 0 silk suture was passed through and then looped through the anterior cruciate ligament twice and then with the leg in approximately 10 degrees of flexion and internally rotated the anterior cruciate and the bony avulsion was then back in position. The synovial structure was repaired with 2-0 plain and capsular structures were reapproximated with 2-0 chromic. Then attention was turned to the medial collateral ligament. A small Boyd staple was then passed through the deep portion of the medial collateral ligament and replaced upon the medial femoral condyle. This concluded repairs and the joint was closed up in the ordinary manner.

So...I had this procedure and was told that my knee would be 100% again. To this date I have not gained full flexibility of this particular joint, plus on occasion, I suffer from serious cramping of my knee at night. Other than that, it works fine.

Dr Jack...this operation was performed quite a few years ago. Would you consider the techiniques I just described as being antiquated or obsolete? Is it possible to ever regain full flexibility in this joint?

Just wondering...

By the way, Welcome to the board. Enough of the medical talk...Let's talk trading!

As you stated, the surgery was performed nearly 25 years ago. With respect to the torn Medial collateral ligaments, I never heard of a Boyd Staple. The repair of choice is to use a monofilament K-wire in a figure 8 and anchor the torn ligament to the bone; I wouldn't anchor it to the femoral chondyle but to the posterior aspect of the femur's ridge... There is more stability there.

Have you had an MRI recently? It will be interesting to view the alignment of the joint. My guess is that you probably have internal tibial rotation of the lower leg and external femoral rotation, causing a transverse stress on your knee joint? I also wonder if there are any arthritic changes present (osteophyte production).

[skiracer]

You didn't ask me, but I want to chime in here: I don't know about a bottom recently, it is possible, but what I want to bring to the table is this: Goto stockcharts and put in the 13 day moving average and look at SPX, INDU, and COMPQ... not one of them was able to surpass the 13 day moving average today... We need to blast through them on Monday or I would be worried that another "bottom" might happen...

I am also concerned that we are green on lower volume.

here a link to the chart I use: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=5&id=p65139022196

damn market has me spooked

Peanuts,
What reasoning brought you to the 13 ma as a line in the sand. Most accepted moving averages as major resistance or support lines are the 50 and the 200. I also like an use the EMA 20 as a support/resistance line in my decision making process. I would like to hear why you chose the 13 day simple moving average.

[peanuts]

Peanuts,
What reasoning brought you to the 13 ma as a line in the sand. Most accepted moving averages as major resistance or support lines are the 50 and the 200. I also like an use the EMA 20 as a support/resistance line in my decision making process. I would like to hear why you chose the 13 day simple moving average.

I use the 13 day for short term movements. Do an experiment yourself on it. It's not something I religiously follow, but it has really helped to me determine good price points to watch for on all charts in a short term time frame. Also, I use a 7 day RSI for this same reason, and a 150 day moving average for quarterly reports price timing. I really don't know how this stuff works. I am subconsciously familiar with using these indicators. I have used them for over a year, and I can't remember any literature of why exactly they work. They work for me because I am familiar with the patterns by now. I've been using it every day for 1+ years. The 13 day on all 3 indices raises my eyebrows, because that means that over the past 2 weeks, the indices average is just about where they closed on Friday... thier closing prices are at a key inflection point for a short term move, whether up or down. If down, I think we can take out the recently made "bottom." If higher, it may confirm the recent bottom as the long term bottom. It will be an important point for me to watch.

You are corrrect on the 50 day and 200 day as standard. However, 10 day MA counts in only 2 weeks. A 13 day does more, because it catches the 3 days prior to the moves made in the 10 days used in a 10 day MA. That's another reason for using the 13 day MA. It adds in the factor of, "what was going on before the recent avg."

[Rob]

I see the momentum of the conversation has somewhat shifted to bragging about injuries. Well check this out. See the picture below? That is a granite structure that rises about 500' above the adjacent lake. It's called "Elephant Rock" in Alpine Co., CA.

http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/8590/sunsetlake9uq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

In 1972 at the age of fifteen, two friends and I scaled that sucker. On the way back down, about 1/3 of the way, one of the others dislodged a watermelon-sized boulder that struck me on the left collar bone and sent me the 2nd 1/3 of the way down in a matter of seconds. There is no way I should have survived, but a narrow ledge abruptly broke my fall. With several broken bones and bleeding profusely, I raised my head and tried to breathe but couldn't, and I passed out. The others, who were then about 125' above me or more, thought surely I was dead. I don't know how much time had passed, but the next thing I knew they were right next to me. It was still too steep for them to carry me, and I had to climb the rest of the way down myself with minimal assistance.

They carried me to the Ford station wagon we had come in, and I bled all over the upholstry on the way to the hospital, which I have been told was about 75 miles away. I'll spare you the agonizing details of my painful emergency room experience, during which I was awake the whole time. Afterward, I had to sleep in a sitting position for a month because I couldn't breathe when I laid flat on my back. I was messed up pretty bad. Some people say I still am.

p.s. Jack, I agree with whoever the poster was who said "sorry" because it appears we have "hijacked" your thread, but I just wanted to relate this in the context of the other tales of the painful.

[skiracer]

I use the 13 day for short term movements. Do an experiment yourself on it. It's not something I religiously follow, but it has really helped to me determine good price points to watch for on all charts in a short term time frame. Also, I use a 7 day RSI for this same reason, and a 150 day moving average for quarterly reports price timing. I really don't know how this stuff works. I am subconsciously familiar with using these indicators. I have used them for over a year, and I can't remember any literature of why exactly they work. They work for me because I am familiar with the patterns by now. I've been using it every day for 1+ years. The 13 day on all 3 indices raises my eyebrows, because that means that over the past 2 weeks, the indices average is just about where they closed on Friday... thier closing prices are at a key inflection point for a short term move, whether up or down. If down, I think we can take out the recently made "bottom." If higher, it may confirm the recent bottom as the long term bottom. It will be an important point for me to watch.

You are corrrect on the 50 day and 200 day as standard. However, 10 day MA counts in only 2 weeks. A 13 day does more, because it catches the 3 days prior to the moves made in the 10 days used in a 10 day MA. That's another reason for using the 13 day MA. It adds in the factor of, "what was going on before the recent avg."

I was just curious as to your explanation why you use the 13 day. If it works for you to a positive result in positioning yourself for setups then that's all that counts. I can understand an appreciate your reasoning. Personally I like a longer period but in reality 20 days vs 13 days isn't that big of a time difference. I would like to hear anyone else's take on what ema's or ma's they prefer and why.

[IIC]

I forget where I read this...but seems to me that somebody suggests 13/50 sma crossovers as a good scan for new ideas...I tried it but didn't really come up with much...IIC

[Jack Haddad]

I see the momentum of the conversation has somewhat shifted to bragging about injuries. Well check this out. See the picture below? That is a granite structure that rises about 500' above the adjacent lake. It's called "Elephant Rock" in Alpine Co., CA.

http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/8590/sunsetlake9uq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

In 1972 at the age of fifteen, two friends and I scaled that sucker. On the way back down, about 1/3 of the way, one of the others dislodged a watermelon-sized boulder that struck me on the left collar bone and sent me the 2nd 1/3 of the way down in a matter of seconds. There is no way I should have survived, but a narrow ledge abruptly broke my fall. With several broken bones and bleeding profusely, I raised my head and tried to breathe but couldn't, and I passed out. The others, who were then about 125' above me or more, thought surely I was dead. I don't know how much time had passed, but the next thing I knew they were right next to me. It was still too steep for them to carry me, and I had to climb the rest of the way down myself with minimal assistance.

They carried me to the Ford station wagon we had come in, and I bled all over the upholstry on the way to the hospital, which I have been told was about 75 miles away. I'll spare you the agonizing details of my painful emergency room experience, during which I was awake the whole time. Afterward, I had to sleep in a sitting position for a month because I couldn't breathe when I laid flat on my back. I was messed up pretty bad. Some people say I still am.

p.s. Jack, I agree with whoever the poster was who said "sorry" because it appears we have "hijacked" your thread, but I just wanted to relate this in the context of the other tales of the painful.

Rob, no need to apalogize for anything... In fact, I welcome additional medical questions/postings; they compel me to stay charp edged on the medical literature.

[Jack Haddad]

According to James Welsh, The Financial Commentator, in the nest 2 years, 25% of all mortgages will be increased with some as much as 50%! I'm beginning to see that here in the Silicon Valley, Santa Clara County. 15,670 default notices were issued in the past 3 months to homeowners-- very freightning. Also, the default rate in Santa Cruz, CA has risen to a scandelous 62.8% from the same period last year, according to county records.

It's a shame how banks lured everyone into a borrowing spree with teaser rates and other promotions. Almost everyone borrowed agianst their primary home to either purchase a second investment home, pay credit card bills or renovate their homes. In sum, the consumer is over-extended with debt. I keep telling everyone that thus far we had one bubble-- which is the collapse of the nasdaq in 2000. We still have 2 more-- the housing bubble and the consumer debt bubble!

Contrary to the above statistics, hedge funds have been buying into oversold distressed homebuilders. According to Research Director at Rochdale Securities and SAC Capital, hedge funds are taking stakes in homebuilding stocks. Tontine Partners took a 9.98% stake in Beazer Homes USA , just six weeks after the Atlanta builder announced an aggressive 200 to 250 million share repurchase program for 2006. Others with outsize cash hoards, up to 10% to 14% of their market caps, are following suit. Centex, Toll Brothers, Brookfield Homes, and Pulte Homes have all announced plans to buy back shares.

I still think the entire sector is severely undervalued at 7 times 2006 estimated earnings. That said, trading opportunites with TOL, and HOV are presenting an excellent set-ups.

Comments? Opinions?

[rivercitydan]

Builders have a glut of homes created by overbuilding and now higher rates. I see that a Kansas City builder is offering a new prepaid lease on a BMW if you will buy one of his homes.
The homebuilders have gotten cheaper that is for sure. If you are in tol, or beazer you have seen half or more of your money disappear. My experience indicates that there is more downside on both of these issues. Of course they will bounce these issues periodically to suck you in. The truth is that when they kill them they kill them irregardless of earnings. Hedge funds alone have enough money to bounce these issues, and sell the bounce to you. I will wait and be patient for prolonged sideways movement and true signs of bottoming. There is no hurry in my opinion. The market environment is grossly negative, contrary to what you hear. By mid to late summer you will see how
bad it can get.

RCD

[DSteckler]

The relative group strength of the Builders - Residential/Commercial group has been improving the last few weeks, rising from 4 to 11 (I'm using a three-week lookback on RS). This coincides with several days of lows around 80.25 - 80.75.

In the group, TOL is the 5th best performing stock and HOV is the 12th best performing stock (out of 24 companies). Earnings estimates for the next two quarters are much better in TOL than HOV.

LEN, which has a higher RS rank within the group than HOV, also has better estimates. ROE for LEN is about the same as HOV but cash flow per share is better ($9.22 vs. $8.05) and LEN's P/E is lower. OTOH, HOV's float is 1/4 that of LEN's so a push into the sector will give a bigger bang in HOV than LEN.

The homebuilder's index ($HGX) completed a five wave impulse move down (4/7 - 5/24) and may be starting a corrective wave up.

[Websman]

As you stated, the surgery was performed nearly 25 years ago. With respect to the torn Medial collateral ligaments, I never heard of a Boyd Staple. The repair of choice is to use a monofilament K-wire in a figure 8 and anchor the torn ligament to the bone; I wouldn't anchor it to the femoral chondyle but to the posterior aspect of the femur's ridge... There is more stability there.

Have you had an MRI recently? It will be interesting to view the alignment of the joint. My guess is that you probably have internal tibial rotation of the lower leg and external femoral rotation, causing a transverse stress on your knee joint? I also wonder if there are any arthritic changes present (osteophyte production).

I got all this info from a copy of the original report that I have. I got it a few years back after I began waking up at night with the severe cramps in my knee. I figured it might be a good idea to keep a copy of it, in case I ever had to have the knee worked on again. When I lay my knee the wrong way, the muscles feel like they're getting stretched too far and get in a bind.

As far as the Boyd staple...It must be obsolete. All I know is that it's listed in the report. I may have to do some research on it.

I haven't had an MRI as of this date, but it would be interesting to find out if your intial suspicions were true. What you said about the stress on the knee joint makes sense.

I doubt I would ever consider having my knee operated again, unless it got worse. I consider the loss of flexibility and the cramps a minor inconvenience...It could always be worse. At least I have a leg that works... LOL

[Lyehopper]

As far as the Boyd staple...It must be obsolete. All I know is that it's listed in the report. I may have to do some research on it.
Webs.... I called Dr. Goodman.... He said he borrowed the stapler from his second cousin whose name is Boyd.... Thus the reference to a "Boyd Staple" in the report. He sent me this picture and said he didn't have stainless staples back then but they were indeed zinc plated and they should have lasted for 20 years before you would start to experience pain from it. He said if you come back into the office he could repair it by drilling a 1 13/16 inch diameter hole below your kneecap 25.4 mm deep and re-staple it with a stainless steel staple.... Says he still is using Boyd's old stapler.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/5340/stapler4rs.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Websman]

Webs.... I called Dr. Goodman.... He said he borrowed the stapler from his second cousin whose name is Boyd.... Thus the reference to a "Boyd Staple" in the report. He sent me this picture and said he didn't have stainless staples back then but they were indeed zinc plated and they should have lasted for 20 years before you would start to experience pain from it. He said if you come back into the office he could repair it by drilling a 1 13/16 inch diameter hole below your kneecap 25.4 mm deep and re-staple it with a stainless steel staple says he still is using Boyd's old stapler.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/5340/stapler4rs.png (http://imageshack.us)


If I could get you to do it, I could save a bunch of money...

We could use Goji for the anesthetic.

[Lyehopper]

We could use Goji for the anesthetic.And the Antiseptic.... No germs can survive being doused with "The GoJi".... Makes a great mouthwash too.... PLUS you get to swallow it after rinsing!

[IIC]

According to James Welsh, The Financial Commentator, in the nest 2 years, 25% of all mortgages will be increased with some as much as 50%! I'm beginning to see that here in the Silicon Valley, Santa Clara County. 15,670 default notices were issued in the past 3 months to homeowners-- very freightning. Also, the default rate in Santa Cruz, CA has risen to a scandelous 62.8% from the same period last year, according to county records.

It's a shame how banks lured everyone into a borrowing spree with teaser rates and other promotions. Almost everyone borrowed agianst their primary home to either purchase a second investment home, pay credit card bills or renovate their homes. In sum, the consumer is over-extended with debt. I keep telling everyone that thus far we had one bubble-- which is the collapse of the nasdaq in 2000. We still have 2 more-- the housing bubble and the consumer debt bubble!

Contrary to the above statistics, hedge funds have been buying into oversold distressed homebuilders. According to Research Director at Rochdale Securities and SAC Capital, hedge funds are taking stakes in homebuilding stocks. Tontine Partners took a 9.98% stake in Beazer Homes USA , just six weeks after the Atlanta builder announced an aggressive 200 to 250 million share repurchase program for 2006. Others with outsize cash hoards, up to 10% to 14% of their market caps, are following suit. Centex, Toll Brothers, Brookfield Homes, and Pulte Homes have all announced plans to buy back shares.

I still think the entire sector is severely undervalued at 7 times 2006 estimated earnings. That said, trading opportunites with TOL, and HOV are presenting an excellent set-ups.

Comments? Opinions?

See a little contadiction in your post Doc...I agree w/ your statements in the first 2 paragraphs...

Now let's take the rest...Hedge Funds are sharks...If they don't eat up Mr./Ms Individual Investor and spit them out...Then they are No Where...Builders offer DT opps...But anyone who wants to buy/hold any of them should send their $$$ to that Nigerian Prince spammer.

It always happens...They build till the demand is gone...Unfortunately when the demand is gone there are still plenty of projects unfinished...It happened circa 83 and 92...It is happening again...I am waiting till next year to get some nice Distressed RE...It should be very easy as it always has been...Best, Doug(IIC)

[DSteckler]

Hedge Funds are sharks...If they don't eat up Mr./Ms Individual Investor and spit them out...Then they are No Where

Not all hedge funds work that way, Doug.

[IIC]

Not all hedge funds work that way, Doug.

C'mon Dave...When is the last time you saw a Hedge Fund Manager walk a little old lady across the street?

On a more serious note...Is there now a registration or licensing requirement for hedge fund managers? How about managers of private investment funds or joint ventures?...thx...Doug

[Jack Haddad]

The relative group strength of the Builders - Residential/Commercial group has been improving the last few weeks, rising from 4 to 11 (I'm using a three-week lookback on RS). This coincides with several days of lows around 80.25 - 80.75.

In the group, TOL is the 5th best performing stock and HOV is the 12th best performing stock (out of 24 companies). Earnings estimates for the next two quarters are much better in TOL than HOV.

LEN, which has a higher RS rank within the group than HOV, also has better estimates. ROE for LEN is about the same as HOV but cash flow per share is better ($9.22 vs. $8.05) and LEN's P/E is lower. OTOH, HOV's float is 1/4 that of LEN's so a push into the sector will give a bigger bang in HOV than LEN.

The homebuilder's index ($HGX) completed a five wave impulse move down (4/7 - 5/24) and may be starting a corrective wave up.

As fas as TOL is concerned, the current stock price would seem to discount 15% annual cash flow shrinkage for the next five years, with just GDP-level growth forevermore after that.

[Jack Haddad]

Since 2003, Hansen's shares have risen from 2 to 130. And recently the stock skyrocketed to 183. It was 130 on April 18, 2006, little over a month ago. Earnings and revenues have also soared, from 28 cents to an expected 3.95 this year! For the three months ended 31 March 2006, Hans's revenues totaled $119.7M, up from $60M. Net income totaled $21.1M, up from $8.8M.

I particularly like the fundamentals of the stock, especially the 5 -year annualized revenue growth rate which stands at roughly 37.5%, and the EPS growth rate at almost 70%.

Technicals are very bullish, more so on long-term basis. The stock is 23% above the 50-day EMA of 148.52, and above the 13-day EMA of 176.00 as well. The 1-month chart shows support at 174.50 However, that gap on May 9, 2006 from 153 to 165 is a little concerning... But shorts keep piling on this stock without any success. They have pointed to Hans's lack of sophistication in its dealings with Wall Street as a reason to sell it short. The current short float is at almost 23%, 3.75 million shares. I attribute Hans's success partly due to their limited coverage on Wall Street (only one analyst follows it) and also management's refusal to have an investor relations department. I attribute these gestures to the company's focus on business operations rather than stockholders' satisfaction. I'll be looking to buy shares, should an opportunity presents itself.

[DSteckler]

C'mon Dave...When is the last time you saw a Hedge Fund Manager walk a little old lady across the street?

Saturday afternoon...and she doesn't like being called old!

On a more serious note...Is there now a registration or licensing requirement for hedge fund managers?

If they have 14 or more clients, then yes.

[Runner]

Dr. Jack, what are your thoughts of this article? http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060522.htm

[Runner]

I think I’m going to pick up some of HSGFX as I like the fact that they hedge and or also short positions when market conditions are unfavorable. I’ve not really been a longer-term investor and would welcome comments on HSGFX. I’ve got some free cash in my Scottrade account that needs to be put to use. I do not use this account for short term trading.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/pdf/diligence.pdf

[DSteckler]

The problem with that fund is that you you have no control over how hedged the portfolio is (if at all). If you want to hedge your portfolio, you're better off in a Rydex or Profunds inverse market fund.

[Jack Haddad]

Dr. Jack, what are your thoughts of this article? http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060522.htm

Several points in the article made by Hussman invite reflection and debate...

1. The author points to the fact that stepping out of the market on a price/peak multiple of 19 while waiting for the markets to plunge 30% before returning would benefit the investor in capturing all of the market's longterm returns. This school of thought goes against the priniciple of hedging. It is my adamant opinion that one should not be sidelined at any given time if he/she practices hedging as a way to safeguard positions. Besides, the author refers to a multiple of 19, but relative to what?

2. He states that his Strategic Growth Fund is fully hedged and that he is not concerned about valuations and future forecasts. First, what are the hedging techniques that he employs (long/short equities, arbitrage plays, distessed securities, etc..)? Second, regardless of how certain the hedging techniques may be, examining valuations on a periodic basis is a "rule of thumb" to ascertain the pan out of your strategies.

[Runner]

Dr. Jack, you bring up some great points. Here is how he explains his hedging of the fund.

Typically, the Fund uses option combinations. Buying a put option on a stock index,
and simultaneously selling short the call option having the same strike price and
expiration, is equivalent to an interest-bearing short sale valued at $100 times the
underlying index. So for example, if the S&P 100 Index is at 500, buying a put option
and selling short the corresponding call option (regardless of the specific strike price
or expiration chosen for the pair) is equivalent to selling short $100 x 500 = $50,000
worth of S&P 100 stocks.
The most defensive position held by the Fund is a fully hedged stance where the
entire value of stocks held by the Fund is offset by a short sale of equal value in
major market indices. So for example, if the market falls by 10% and the stocks held
by the Fund fall by 5%, a fully hedged position would result in a positive return of
about 5%. In contrast, if the market falls by 10% and the stocks held by the Fund fall
by 15%, the Fund would experience a loss of about 5% despite being fully hedged.
Similar examples apply to market advances. In either case, the return of a fully
hedged position is driven by the difference in performance between the stocks we
own and the indices we use to hedge, not by absolute market direction.

[Runner]

The problem with that fund is that you you have no control over how hedged the portfolio is (if at all). If you want to hedge your portfolio, you're better off in a Rydex or Profunds inverse market fund.

Dave, thanks for the info..

[Jack Haddad]

Dr. Jack, you bring up some great points. Here is how he explains his hedging of the fund.

Typically, the Fund uses option combinations. Buying a put option on a stock index,
and simultaneously selling short the call option having the same strike price and
expiration, is equivalent to an interest-bearing short sale valued at $100 times the
underlying index. So for example, if the S&P 100 Index is at 500, buying a put option
and selling short the corresponding call option (regardless of the specific strike price
or expiration chosen for the pair) is equivalent to selling short $100 x 500 = $50,000
worth of S&P 100 stocks.
The most defensive position held by the Fund is a fully hedged stance where the
entire value of stocks held by the Fund is offset by a short sale of equal value in
major market indices. So for example, if the market falls by 10% and the stocks held
by the Fund fall by 5%, a fully hedged position would result in a positive return of
about 5%. In contrast, if the market falls by 10% and the stocks held by the Fund fall
by 15%, the Fund would experience a loss of about 5% despite being fully hedged.
Similar examples apply to market advances. In either case, the return of a fully
hedged position is driven by the difference in performance between the stocks we
own and the indices we use to hedge, not by absolute market direction.

It appears that he is leveraging through a combination of spreads and calander type plays. I would need to know the specifics of his options' strike prices to calculate the intrinsic/decay value. Only then, I could judge if his leveraging techniques are sound or are as he promises.

[DSteckler]

Several points in the article made by Hussman invite reflection and debate...

All of which are no doubt answered in the prospectus.

[Jack Haddad]

Rob, your stock is above 40.00, an important psychological landmark.

[Jack Haddad]

The triple digit loss on the DOW is very healthy will invite bargain hunting once more. While I believe the intraday low has not maxed out yet, I'm looking at several scalp set=ups here-- BA, and INTC

[Rob]

Rob, your stock is above 40.00, an important psychological landmark.It's also good for my June 40 calls, which were out of the money when I bought 'em. I'm watching it like a hawk and expecting more than the usual volatility, as the 2006 ASCO meeting (http://www.asco.org/ASCO/Downloads/Publications/2006_FPA.pdf) is scheduled to kick off on Friday.

[Jack Haddad]

Purchased 2 blocks at 33.12, and wrote 200 June 32.50 calls at 1.45

[Lyehopper]

Hey Dr. Jack!!!! You have till 3:59pm today to enter your pick in the POTW. Remember you can enter ca$h initially.... that will get you in the game and allows you two stock plays any time this week (long or short).

Note: A link to the "Rules" can be found at the bottom of any of "Rob's" posts.

[Jack Haddad]

Hey Dr. Jack!!!! You have till 3:59pm today to enter your pick in the POTW. Remember you can enter ca$h initially.... that will get you in the game and allows you two stock plays any time this week (long or short).

Note: A link to the "Rules" can be found at the bottom of any of "Rob's" posts.

Humm, thanks for the offer. I'd like to stick and concentrate on my trades in real life.

[Lyehopper]

Humm, thanks for the offer. I'd like to stick and concentrate on my trades in real life.
It only takes about ten seconds to post a play Jack....

I always play my real life picks in the POTW. So do many of the other fellas. Karel, Jiesen and Rockin'Rob usually play repeat stocks each week that they hold (or trade) in real life.

Now Doc! If we were 13 years old again and I invited you over to play some good old "rough and tumble sandlot tackle football".... Would you decline because you might get your trousers dirty?.... I won't tell your mom.... I promise!.... As a matter of fact.... I've got an old pair of wranglers I'll let you wear. COME ON!!!! it'll be fun dude!

[Jack Haddad]

It only takes about ten seconds to post a play Jack....

I always play my real life picks in the POTW. So do many of the other fellas. Karel, Jiesen and Rockin'Rob usually play repeat stocks each week that they hold (or trade) in real life.

Now Doc! If we were 13 years old again and I invited you over to play some good old "rough and tumble sandlot tackle football".... Would you decline because you might get your trousers dirty?.... I won't tell your mom.... I promise!.... As a matter of fact.... I've got an old pair of wranglers I'll let you wear. COME ON!!!! it'll be fun dude!

LOL...lol...

[DSteckler]

COME ON!!!! it'll be fun dude!

Lye, you're looking at the difference between those of us who do this for a living and those who do it for fun.

[Lyehopper]

Lye, you're looking at the difference between those of us who do this for a living and those who do it for fun.
I have fun while making a living Dave.... That's why it's called a "living"....

[DSteckler]

I have fun while making a living Dave.... That's why it's called a "living"....

Lye, my point was that those of us who do this for a living don't pick a single stock in a contest to have fun.

[peanuts]

http://img344.imageshack.us/img344/2866/aapl3gw.png (http://imageshack.us)

going long here, looking for 62.14 by EOD

[Lyehopper]

:) Lye, my point was that those of us who do this for a living don't pick a single stock in a contest to have fun.
Why not?....

And why are you speaking for the Doctor here Dave?

Are you two fellas somehow "above" entering a simple stock pick in this friendly little game with a bunch of rank amateurs? Would you play a round of golf with me Dave?.... or must I submit a financial statement and a copy of my collegiate accomplishments first before you would be seen in association with me?

[Jack Haddad]

http://img344.imageshack.us/img344/2866/aapl3gw.png (http://imageshack.us)

going long here, looking for 62.14 by EOD

Just be careful here... The hourly and the 30 min charts are both weak. What is your strategy in the event your trade does not pan out? Do you plan to hold or have you set a stop loss limit?

[peanuts]

Just be careful here... The hourly and the 30 min charts are both weak. What is your strategy in the event your trade does not pan out? Do you plan to hold or have you set a stop loss limit?

100% at risk. no stop loss is set. I will wait until something better shows up until I get out or meet my target. But looking for it to reach it by the end of the day.

I don't yet fully understand options to play that hedge.

[DSteckler]

:)
Why not?....

And why are you speaking for the Doctor here Dave?



Speaking for myself, Lye. I know a number of pros who do this for a living won't enter stock contests.

[spikefader]

I know a number of pros who do this for a living won't enter stock contests.
http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/3605/scared6zk.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

Speaking for myself, Lye. I know a number of pros who do this for a living won't enter stock contests.
Hell, I already knew you were a puss and wouldn't play Dave.LOL.... I was asking the freakin' Doc to play here DAVE not you.... He actually posts the prices he buys his picks at so I assumed he surely wouldn't be afraid to pick a stock with his peers. And actually.... I think he'll wind up playin' with us just because of that fact.

Purchased 2 blocks at 33.12, and wrote 200 June 32.50 calls at 1.45

btw.... Great entry into EBAY today Doc.... would have made one helluva POTW pick.jejeje.... Had you posted at the same time on the POTW thread you would have been entered at the current open tick of the time stamp on the post. Of course it wouldn't beat my STLD short this week.... but it would have made a decent play nonetheless.... SsSsSssss.

[Websman]

Dave won't enter the POTW because he's afraid of being beat by a Vulcan...

[peanuts]

100% at risk. no stop loss is set. I will wait until something better shows up until I get out or meet my target. But looking for it to reach it by the end of the day.

I don't yet fully understand options to play that hedge.

doh!

I don't like them apples

[Lyehopper]

doh!

I don't like them apples
Learn to play short Peanuts.... Don't buck the market's trend dude.

[sisterwin2]

http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/3605/scared6zk.gif (http://imageshack.us)

jejejejejejejejejeje

[Jack Haddad]

The selling is to continue in the first 45 min of trading tomorrow, and thereafter, a bounce from the intraday lows should provide a good opportunity for some scalp trades.

Nevertheless the trend is still intact. This coming Friday is paramount for the health of the market as the May's payroll numbers come out. Today's sell off was pretty steep and oversold in my opinion. I was expecting bargain hunters to step the buying spree in the last hour, but to no avail. The sell-off was due to a decrease in the CPI numbers which came below expectations... But, believe me, the market needed a reason to trigger a sell- off after a 3-day rally from last week. If the payroll numbers prove to be abnormaly anemic (low), the selling will continue...and should the selling accelerate on heavy volume, we could easily breach technical support and fall out of trading range into a lower platform.

[IIC]

Speaking for myself, Lye. I know a number of pros who do this for a living won't enter stock contests.

The reason stock pros won't enter contests is because they don't know how to explain to their customers why they don't win the contests...I wasn't born yesterday Dave....Doug(IIC)

[IIC]

Doc...So far...I think you are good guy and most likely a very good investor...but I keep seeing you post things like...POST YOUR TRADES AND GIVE THE PRICE YOU PAID...or something like that.

Problem is...This is a Forum...People generally don't sit here and wait for a post(I don't anyway)...which comes up slow anyway. What you are asking is for a Live chat room...I'm in some and that's where I post my stuff within 1-3 mins. It is just not practical in a Forum setting.

If the people here want a Mr. M Forum...I've got a dormant one...No charge...Doug

[IIC]

The selling is to continue in the first 45 min of trading tomorrow, and thereafter, a bounce from the intraday lows should provide a good opportunity for some scalp trades.

Nevertheless the trend is still intact. This coming Friday is paramount for the health of the market as the May's payroll numbers come out. Today's sell off was pretty steep and oversold in my opinion. I was expecting bargain hunters to step the buying spree in the last hour, but to no avail. The sell-off was due to a decrease in the CPI numbers which came below expectations... But, believe me, the market needed a reason to trigger a sell- off after a 3-day rally from last week. If the payroll numbers prove to be abnormaly anemic (low), the selling will continue...and should the selling accelerate on heavy volume, we could easily breach technical support and fall out of trading range into a lower platform.


Maybe...Maybe Not...Maybe investors don't like Paulson...Maybe they don't like all those Caribbean crooked hedge funds buying up Treasury Notes...Did you notice the repo pool is at the highest level ever?...Where would we be if not for that?...There is a lot more going on behind the scenes than what the Wall Street Journal prints...Doug(IIC)

[DSteckler]

The reason stock pros won't enter contests is because they don't know how to explain to their customers why they don't win the contests...I wasn't born yesterday Dave....Doug(IIC)

Maybe you were born two days ago?

It's because if a pro buys or sells a stock that he or she recommends on a bulletin board contest, the SEC will be all over them like white on rice.

[IIC]

Maybe you were born two days ago?

It's because if a pro buys or sells a stock that he or she recommends on a bulletin board contest, the SEC will be all over them like white on rice.

I don't see the difference in posting in a contest and posting in just a plain old message on a board???

[Jack Haddad]

The gap down from this morning filled... I'm looking for a short scalp opportunity.

[spikefader]

It's because if a pro buys or sells a stock that he or she recommends on a bulletin board contest, the SEC will be all over them like white on rice.
So don't recommend your pick.
Or how about you pick a stock that you are not trading? A theoretical pick.

And IIC makes a good point ........ you use your very active thread to post many picks you are trading. And yet no fear there.... Not passing the smell test.

[Jack Haddad]

The gap down from this morning filled... I'm looking for a short scalp opportunity.

Entered a short position on EBAY at 33.05... Let's see how this goes.

[Lyehopper]

I don't see the difference in posting in a contest and posting in just a plain old message on a board???
I agree IIC.... Why would the SEC jump on a "pro" for posting a stock recommendation in the POTW thread and not mind that you did the same on another thread. The argument Dave is making is just ridiculous. I'm real sure that the SEC has undercover cyber spies monitoring the POTW so they can catch Steckler and Doc playing the POTW.....SHEESH!

DAVE! Here's an idea.... PM your picks to Rockin'Rob and he'll enter you under an "assumed name" kinda like we do Quasi-Ernie. No paper trail, no way to prove the pick actually came from you. AND.... When the SEC questions me under the big spotlight and tortures me with a cattle prod I'll swear that.... "I KNOW NOTHING!!!! NOTHING!!!!"

[Jack Haddad]

So don't recommend your pick.
Or how about you pick a stock that you are not trading? A theoretical pick.

And IIC makes a good point ........ you use your very active thread to post many picks you are trading. And yet no fear there.... Not passing the smell test.

Since the pick has not been executed in real life (hypothertical/paper), volatility of that trade does not impact the market at all. Therefore, I refuse to get accustomed to such an imaginary and silly simulations.

[DSteckler]

And IIC makes a good point ........ you use your very active thread to post many picks you are trading.

What leads you to believe I'm trading anything I post about? Except for the occasional stock, that is, like the ELN short.

[Jack Haddad]

A new daily low for AAPL is imminent. A close below 60 will compell AAPL to test a support of 58.25

[Rob]

. . . Therefore, I refuse to get accustomed to such an imaginary and silly simulations.Doc, do you play golf?

[Jack Haddad]

Entered a short position on EBAY at 33.05... Let's see how this goes.

Covered short at 32.77

[Jack Haddad]

Doc, do you play golf?

No, But I'm very tempted to gice a try. I'm astonished as to how many youngsters are getting into the game these days. I had a 12-year old patient who told me that it's all about muscle memory.

[Jack Haddad]

Something is unsually holding INTC up. Is there something in the brewing (release of their Woodcrest due any day)? Woodcrest is supposed to INTC's biggest gun release against AMD's duel -core. If the server paltorm does not receive a favorable market reaction, INTC s finished from a competitive stand-point.

[Rob]

No, But I'm very tempted to gice a try. I'm astonished as to how many youngsters are getting into the game these days. I had a 12-year old patient who told me that it's all about muscle memory.Well, I was merely driving at the point that something which may legitimately be viewed as "silly" can nevertheless hold certain value, even if only for recreation purposes. With my investment style I tend to view a much longer time horizon than one week, but participating in a weekly pick contest has certainly given me pause to look at trading from a different perspective. Maybe a different segment of the brain evaluates short-term vs. that which evaluates long-term investments; if so, a weekly pick contest will exercise that synaptic pathway, similar to the "muscle memory" spoken of by your young patient.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 3 blocks at 31.57, and wrote 300 calls at 2.00

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 3 blocks at 31.57, and wrote 300 calls at 2.00

The calls were June 30

[Jack Haddad]

Well, I was merely driving at the point that something which may legitimately be viewed as "silly" can nevertheless hold certain value, even if only for recreation purposes. With my investment style I tend to view a much longer time horizon than one week, but participating in a weekly pick contest has certainly given me pause to look at trading from a different perspective. Maybe a different segment of the brain evaluates short-term vs. that which evaluates long-term investments; if so, a weekly pick contest will exercise that synaptic pathway, similar to the "muscle memory" spoken of by your young patient.

My issue is not with respect to duration of trades, rather with engaging in something (simulator trading) that is not real... and because it's fiction and imaginary, I'm afraid that it will obscure my centration/discipline and result in bad trading habits. That's all. Trading/investing/stock picking is serious business!

[spikefader]

Since the pick has not been executed in real life (hypothertical/paper), volatility of that trade does not impact the market at all. Therefore, I refuse to get accustomed to such an imaginary and silly simulations.Pffft. Come on Jack, do it for your brothers and sisters here at MM. Sure, you sound like a big fish in a little pond, but imagine you've just got 10k to trade with in POTW and size doesn't matter, nor even winning, but just improving the group numbers so we can beat Karel's mechanical fund performance. Who knows, you may even win a few if you're lucky. Please don't shy away from the bonding experience it offers us forum members. Let it be a little imaginary and silly....

[spikefader]

What leads you to believe I'm trading anything I post about? Except for the occasional stock, that is, like the ELN short.I actually don't believe a whole lot of what you post Dave.

[Jack Haddad]

Something is unsually holding INTC up. Is there something in the brewing (release of their Woodcrest due any day)? Woodcrest is supposed to INTC's biggest gun release against AMD's duel -core. If the server paltorm does not receive a favorable market reaction, INTC s finished from a competitive stand-point.

Folks, shorted INTC at 18.13. The daily strength relative to the breadth of today's market just does not make sense to me. The stock is defying the laws of gravity.

[skiracer]

Pffft. Come on Jack, do it for your brothers and sisters here at MM. Sure, you sound like a big fish in a little pond, but imagine you've just got 10k to trade with in POTW and size doesn't matter, nor even winning, but just improving the group numbers so we can beat Karel's mechanical fund performance. Who knows, you may even win a few if you're lucky. Please don't shy away from the bonding experience it offers us forum members. Let it be a little imaginary and silly....
Doc,
Besides you get two trades a week, if you need to escape one, to recoup or embellish on the first one. An it gives us a chance to whup some pro ass. Actually the odds are against you as there will be almost 25 or so to 1 that one of us beats you. Maybe you better stay out of it.

[Jack Haddad]

A new daily low for AAPL is imminent. A close below 60 will compell AAPL to test a support of 58.25

Selling has intensified on heavy volume. Not good for AAPL here.

[Rob]

Folks, shorted INTC at 18.13. The daily strength relative to the breadth of today's market just does not make sense to me. The stock is defying the laws of gravity.Jack, maybe the subject of this article I found on Forbes.com has something to do with it (emphasis mine):

--------------------------------------------------------

Survey Suggests Higher IT Spending In 2006
Mary Crane, 05.31.06, 8:31 AM ET

Information-technology spending budgets are likely to increase, on average, 5.2%, year-over-year, in 2006 and 4.8% in 2007, according to a recent Merrill Lynch survey of 75 U.S. and 25 European chief information officers.

Overall IT spending growth should increase 7% to 8% in 2006, wrote Merrill analyst Richard Farmer, driven by a healthier small- and medium-business market which, according to distributors like Ingram Micro (nyse: IM - news - people ) and Tech Data (nasdaq: TECD - news - people ), have outpaced overall IT spending over the last couple of years.

So what are the CIOs spending their bigger budgets on?

Farmer said the highest-growth areas included laptops, applications software, networked storage, networking equipment and security.

The survey also found that 89% of the respondents said Apple’s Boot Camp, which allows Windows XP to run on Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people )-based Mac computers, won’t impact future Mac purchases. The other 11% said they will change their spending plans less than 1%.

The bottom line, Farmer said, was that most CIOs are unwilling to pay a premium for Mac computers.

In the overall server market, the survey found, Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ - news - people ), IBM (nyse: IBM - news - people ) and Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news - people ) were winners over Sun Microsystems (nasdaq: SUNW - news - people ). CIOs perceived these companies’ products to be more power efficient -- a quality 28% of the survey respondents said mattered in their purchasing decisions -- than Sun.

Farmer said Sun’s poor showing was likely due to the recent introduction of its more power-efficient platforms like the new T1 Niagara servers, which he said were still in the "tire-kicking stage."

But the survey offered some good news for Sun Microsystems. About 75% of the survey respondents said they think Sun’s Solaris operating system is better on x86 servers than Linux.

"Although it’s too early to call a trend, we have heard anecdotally of instances where Solaris is replacing Linux," Farmer said. "This would be bullish for Sun if it became widespread."

Finally, in the ongoing market-share battle between number-one chipmaker Intel and its number-two rival, AMD, Farmer said 80% of the CIOs surveyed expected no change in their chip preference for server purchcases. Still, a weighted average of the survey responses showed a small 1.4% shift in AMD’s favor.

--------------------------------------------------------

That, coupled with the horrendous beating INTC has taken in recent months--maybe that could account for it.

[Jack Haddad]

Folks, shorted INTC at 18.13. The daily strength relative to the breadth of today's market just does not make sense to me. The stock is defying the laws of gravity.

Covered short at 18.00

[Lyehopper]

My issue is not with respect to duration of trades, rather with engaging in something (simulator trading) that is not real... and because it's fiction and imaginary, I'm afraid that it will obscure my centration/discipline and result in bad trading habits. That's all. Trading/investing/stock picking is serious business!
Doc.... I don't understand why you and Jack bother posting on this forum.... Seems you fellas are way too professional and serious for us. Seems like posting here is a big waste of your time. What do you gents get out of the $$MM$$ experience anyway?

[Jack Haddad]

Jack, maybe the subject of this article I found on Forbes.com has something to do with it (emphasis mine):

--------------------------------------------------------

Survey Suggests Higher IT Spending In 2006
Mary Crane, 05.31.06, 8:31 AM ET

Information-technology spending budgets are likely to increase, on average, 5.2%, year-over-year, in 2006 and 4.8% in 2007, according to a recent Merrill Lynch survey of 75 U.S. and 25 European chief information officers.

Overall IT spending growth should increase 7% to 8% in 2006, wrote Merrill analyst Richard Farmer, driven by a healthier small- and medium-business market which, according to distributors like Ingram Micro (nyse: IM - news - people ) and Tech Data (nasdaq: TECD - news - people ), have outpaced overall IT spending over the last couple of years.

So what are the CIOs spending their bigger budgets on?

Farmer said the highest-growth areas included laptops, applications software, networked storage, networking equipment and security.

The survey also found that 89% of the respondents said Apple’s Boot Camp, which allows Windows XP to run on Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people )-based Mac computers, won’t impact future Mac purchases. The other 11% said they will change their spending plans less than 1%.

The bottom line, Farmer said, was that most CIOs are unwilling to pay a premium for Mac computers.

In the overall server market, the survey found, Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ - news - people ), IBM (nyse: IBM - news - people ) and Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news - people ) were winners over Sun Microsystems (nasdaq: SUNW - news - people ). CIOs perceived these companies’ products to be more power efficient -- a quality 28% of the survey respondents said mattered in their purchasing decisions -- than Sun.

Farmer said Sun’s poor showing was likely due to the recent introduction of its more power-efficient platforms like the new T1 Niagara servers, which he said were still in the "tire-kicking stage."

But the survey offered some good news for Sun Microsystems. About 75% of the survey respondents said they think Sun’s Solaris operating system is better on x86 servers than Linux.

"Although it’s too early to call a trend, we have heard anecdotally of instances where Solaris is replacing Linux," Farmer said. "This would be bullish for Sun if it became widespread."

Finally, in the ongoing market-share battle between number-one chipmaker Intel and its number-two rival, AMD, Farmer said 80% of the CIOs surveyed expected no change in their chip preference for server purchcases. Still, a weighted average of the survey responses showed a small 1.4% shift in AMD’s favor.

--------------------------------------------------------

That, coupled with the horrendous beating INTC has taken in recent months--maybe that could account for it.

A very possible effect, Rob. I have been on the phone frantically with other managers and none of us have a clue. I hope there isn't some hidden crooked analyst upgrade.

[gdb]

He will not play your game so you throw a fit?

I for one welcome Jack's insight on this forum. The more the merrier. His trades are telling me all I need to know concerning the caliber of trader he is.

He gave his reasons for not wanting to participate in the POTW. With all due respect, your posts are adding nothing to his thread. How about changing subjects?

Doc.... I don't understand why you and Jack bother posting on this forum.... Seems you fellas are way too professional and serious for us. Seems like posting here is a big waste of your time. What do you gents get out of the $$MM$$ experience anyway?

[Jack Haddad]

He will not play your game so you throw a fit?

I for one welcome Jack's insight on this forum. The more the merrier. His trades are telling me all I need to know concerning the caliber of trader he is.

He gave his reasons for not wanting to participate in the POTW. With all due respect, your posts are adding nothing to his thread. How about changing subjects?

Thank you kind, sir.

[skiracer]

He will not play your game so you throw a fit?

I for one welcome Jack's insight on this forum. The more the merrier. His trades are telling me all I need to know concerning the caliber of trader he is.

He gave his reasons for not wanting to participate in the POTW. With all due respect, your posts are adding nothing to his thread. How about changing subjects?

He's been here about two weeks and you can tell exactly what kind of a trader he is already. Amazing. I posted 4 trades over the last 3 weeks that gained close to 30 % , and make about $8000, that don't hardly get a mention but Doctor Jack is the one getting the message out there regarding his plays. I haven't seen anything that I would write home about yet. I have nothing against the guy but please spare me. What's wrong with wanting to get the guy involved with our little game. It's the same level playing field for everyone and professional or not I would put my game plan against his anytime just to see how we do against one another for the fun of it. None of us here are afraid or embarrassed with how our picks do each week. No one's going to call him a stupid shit if he comes in last. It's just a friendly community with a friendly competive game going on. What's the big deal. I would like to see him put one up there that's good enough to win it all and take the top spot one week. Otherwise keep a record of his buys to document just how well they are doing. Anything else is you know what and doesn't hold water in my book. By the way you should put up a pick for the game. Every week that you lose should make you that much more persistent in finding a stock that will evertually take that top spot. An if you also own it, which in my opinion is the only way to play any of your picks, makes it that much better.

[Lyehopper]

He will not play your game so you throw a fit?

I for one welcome Jack's insight on this forum. The more the merrier. His trades are telling me all I need to know concerning the caliber of trader he is.

He gave his reasons for not wanting to participate in the POTW. With all due respect, your posts are adding nothing to his thread. How about changing subjects?
This post is very reminiscent of "The Stock Boy" and "Adman"....

Hey gdb.... What are you contributing to the forum? You've posted three times (total) on this HUUUUGE forum.... and two of those posts were negatively directed at me.

Why don't you play the POTW gdb? Are you a "professional" that's afraid of being locked up by the SEC too? Did your sister attend Princeton by any chance?

The "Docs" refusal to answer my post directly tell me something about the caliber member he is proving to be....

[Lyehopper]

He's been here about two weeks and you can tell exactly what kind of a trader he is already. Amazing. I posted 4 trades over the last 3 weeks that gained close to 30 % , and make about $8000, that don't hardly get a mention but Doctor Jack is the one getting the message out there regarding his plays. I haven't seen anything that I would write home about yet. I have nothing against the guy but please spare me. What's wrong with wanting to get the guy involved with our little game. It's the same level playing field for everyone and professional or not I would put my game plan against his anytime just to see how we do against one another for the fun of it. None of us here are afraid or embarrassed with how our picks do each week. No one's going to call him a stupid shit if he comes in last. It's just a friendly community with a friendly competive game going on. What's the big deal. I would like to see him put one up there that's good enough to win it all and take the top spot one week. Otherwise keep a record of his buys to document just how well they are doing. Anything else is you know what and doesn't hold water in my book. By the way you should put up a pick for the game. Every week that you lose should make you that much more persistent in finding a stock that will evertually take that top spot. An if you also own it, which in my opinion is the only way to play any of your picks, makes it that much better.
Hey Gura! You need to create a member ID that braggs on how dandy a trader you are dude.lol.... You could even make it a female member who also thinks you're a sexy hunk!.... You could call her "The Stock Girl".... SsSsSsSssssss

[Websman]

Hey Gura! You need to create a member ID that braggs on how dandy a trader you are dude.lol.... You could even make it a female member who also thinks you're a sexy hunk!.... You could call her "The Stock Girl".... SsSsSsSssssss

Hahaha!!! Nothing gets by you Lye! That's why I made you my first VTP inner circle member.

[Lyehopper]

A very possible effect, Rob. I have been on the phone frantically with other managers and none of us have a clue. I hope there isn't some hidden crooked analyst upgrade.
You're stumped!.... You've "frantically" been on the phone with other "professionals" trying to understand INTC's 1% rally today?LOL!.... That's funny! No wonder you won't play the POTW!

Nice SHort play on INTC today Doc!.... You are HUUUUGE!!!!

[Jack Haddad]

Have a good afternoon, everyone.

[billyjoe]

Lye,
I don't think there's a Jack X gdb connection and if there is you've got powers far above those of mortal men.

billyjoe

[spikefader]

gdb,

Quit being a drama queen. No fits in here yet.

I think Lye's questions are valid and reasonable, and I wish Jack would reconsider, and I wish Dave had minded his own business during early discussions. No-one should take this "heat" as a fit by Lye, me, ski, or anyone else....but rather as enthusiastic encouragement/disappointment that such a high calibre trader backs away from what we in the POTW have come to see as much more than a competition. And I'll cut you some slack for not knowing about that, gdb, cuz you're a newbie poster (perhaps long-time lurker) who doesn't contribute. And personally, I think senior members who have contributed to this forum should stand up and question these weak excuses as to why so-called 'pro's are too frightened to enter. It's about more than the game; it's about credibility. Besides; it's rude to refuse such a polite invitation jejeje

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I don't think there's a Jack X gdb connection and if there is you've got powers far above those of mortal men.
I am a Vulcan with an implanted microchip you know?

[billyjoe]

Lye,
You're a Vulcan too ? That explains a lot. By the way are you still sticking with ACTU ? Hope so. I've still got high hopes for that one if I'm allowed to say "hope".

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
You're a Vulcan too ? That explains a lot. By the way are you still sticking with ACTU?
I am not a Vulcan by birth like Websman is.... I'm a Vulcan by microchip implant.

I have a nice little position of ACTU still BillyJoe. I have positions in all of my open featured trades. I need to update my list I guess. Maybe Friday.

[skiracer]

Hey Gura! You need to create a member ID that braggs on how dandy a trader you are dude.lol.... You could even make it a female member who also thinks you're a sexy hunk!.... You could call her "The Stock Girl".... SsSsSsSssssss

I'll call her Skiracer's Sexy Sassy Stockslope Stockpicking Slammer or SsSsSs for short. I need to see Dave and Jack put up a couple of those pro picks. I really need to see if we, as a group, can rise to the occassion and be competive with the pros. I think that this group can be very competive on the whole.

[billyjoe]

I've never told you about my awesome trading partner "billysue". She had 12 consecutive great picks when I had 12 straight losers. You guys better be nice to her if she ever decides to post here.
billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

I've never told you about my awesome trading partner "billysue". She had 12 consecutive great picks when I had 12 straight losers. You guys better be nice to her if she ever decides to post here.
As long as she plays your POTW BillyJoe I'll be real sweet to her. My Mother-in-law's name is BillySue LOL!!!! and she's from WVA...LOL!!!!!.... Hey! I didn't tell you fellas about that little West VA gal who's sweet on me did I?.... Her name is LyePrancer. She's got a hot lil Fibonacci retracement that'll knock your socks off!!!!...... oh..... sorry fellas..... wasn't s'posed to tell y'all about all that.

[lemonjello]

"Pros" publish stock picks constantly - CNBC talking-head stock touts posing as experts and pushing the stock in their own portfolio or sell side analysts sending out their upgrades/downgrades to the institutional clients before they pump the very same opinions down the pipe to the retail investors a little later and then the newswires a little later yet and so on. Of course CNBC has no intention of tracking any guru's picks and results since that would clog the dual pipelines of stock touting and ad revenues. Sell side analysts have people tracking the accuracy of their recs these days but you have to pay up for it.

A nice read about the same subject is - Trading with the Enemy - by a guy who worked for Mr. CNBC Booyah.


I don't see the difference in posting in a contest and posting in just a plain old message on a board???

[IIC]

What leads you to believe I'm trading anything I post about? Except for the occasional stock, that is, like the ELN short.


I'm going thru this thread one post at a time...so excuse me if I resond to something that is answered in a later post as I have not gotten there yet...

OK Dave...So are you saying that the SEC lets it slide..."On Occaision"?

[IIC]

Since the pick has not been executed in real life (hypothertical/paper), volatility of that trade does not impact the market at all. Therefore, I refuse to get accustomed to such an imaginary and silly simulations.

C'mon Doc...how do we know if you bot the stock or not?

BTW...I'm curious???...Are you ignoring my posts?...I never seem to see an answer to them...Doug(IIC)

[IIC]

Doc.... I don't understand why you and Jack bother posting on this forum.... Seems you fellas are way too professional and serious for us. Seems like posting here is a big waste of your time. What do you gents get out of the $$MM$$ experience anyway?

Yeah...I was wondering that too???

[IIC]

This post is very reminiscent of "The Stock Boy" and "Adman"....

Hey gdb.... What are you contributing to the forum? You've posted three times (total) on this HUUUUGE forum.... and two of those posts were negatively directed at me.

Why don't you play the POTW gdb? Are you a "professional" that's afraid of being locked up by the SEC too? Did your sister attend Princeton by any chance?

The "Docs" refusal to answer my post directly tell me something about the caliber member he is proving to be....

Geez Lye...We must be on the same wavelength...I was thinking the EXACT same thing...Doug

[IIC]

Fun is Fun...and this thread is not Fun...In fact, I think it is a waste of time...Good Luck Doc...Or whoever you REALLY are...Doug(IIC)

[billyjoe]

Doug,
I did have a hard time finding "experts" who actually picked a stock for the POTY contest and many of those aren't talking about those picks anymore. A typical quote would be " well I threw out a lot of promising stocks, but don't really recall one I said would dominate this year".
Coincidentally, one of the celebs that has a terrible pick in our contest just e-mailed me wanting $130 for his newsletter naming the must own stocks for today's economy.

billyjoe

[IIC]

Doug,
I did have a hard time finding "experts" who actually picked a stock for the POTY contest and many of those aren't talking about those picks anymore. A typical quote would be " well I threw out a lot of promising stocks, but don't really recall one I said would dominate this year".
Coincidentally, one of the celebs that has a terrible pick in our contest just e-mailed me wanting $130 for his newsletter naming the must own stocks for today's economy.

billyjoe

I've been told that I "Throw spahgetti up against the wall and buy what sticks"...It was intended as a put down...But I took it as a compliment...Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

The difference here at this forum lies in the fact that we aren't a group of novices that haven't been around the block a few times ourselves an aren't intelligent enough to pour piss out of a boot. Our knowledge an experience levels are above the average stock pickers who listen to what most of the talking heads are pushing and who don't have the ability to discern the difference between the straight skinny and the dribble that most of them are putting out. That's probably the biggest difference in what is going on here and what is going on at most other forums. Keeping that level of quality intact takes speaking out and questioning others about what they are posting. At times that questioning and speaking your mind will certainly bring on disagreement among the parties but it's what keeps this forum operating on the level that it does and separates the wheat from the chaff. Having the grit an ability to withstand the questions and demands when someone else takes issue with your posts is going to be the standard for what it takes to function here with the rest of us. There are always other options to consider if the climate becomes unbearable but that remains up to each individual to weigh in their own minds. Those of us who have been posting here for longer periods of time have been able to accept this as a fact of life and have learned to live with how things go here. Those that can't have moved on to more accomodating environments that are more suitable to their personalities and motives.

[gdb]

Geez Lye...We must be on the same wavelength...I was thinking the EXACT same thing...Doug

Brilliant deduction Holmes!

Did MM or did MM not invite JH himself? If he did in fact find JH on myspace and extend an invitation to this board, what are the odds JH is in fact Adman?

This must be a case of "brilliant minds" thinking alike. :rolleyes:

If you feel the need to respond please do it in your own thread. Thanks a bunch fella.

BTW, before you go trying to think again, I am not Jack Haddad. Happy trading.

[Karel]

What about getting on topic again, folks? This is Jack's thread. Feel free to criticize, but stop short of making a mess.

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

Brilliant deduction Holmes!

Did MM or did MM not invite JH himself? If he did in fact find JH on myspace and extend an invitation to this board, what are the odds JH is in fact Adman?

This must be a case of "brilliant minds" thinking alike. :rolleyes:

If you feel the need to respond please do it in your own thread. Thanks a bunch fella.

BTW, before you go trying to think again, I am not Jack Haddad. Happy trading.
Why did you send me a nasty and cutting private message this morning gbd?.... And why won't you receive private messages in return?.... There's a name for that, I think.

All I did was invite the "Doc" to play a friendly game. What's wrong with that? btw.... What stocks do you like? Why don't you participate in the general forum gdb?

[billyjoe]

Lye,
You ran the Doc off just as I was about to make my move for free orthopaedic advice, dammit.

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
You ran the Doc off just as I was about to make my move for free orthopaedic advice, dammit.
Sorry BillyJoe.... Your orthopedic problems are probably too "silly" for the "Doc" anyway dude....

Maybe Webs and me can help you.... Answer these questions so we can evaluate your condition.

(1) Have you had an MRI lately?
(2) Do you have any "Boyd Staples" in your knee that are over twenty years old?
(3) Does your current doctor know and readily use the metric system?

[billyjoe]

Lye,

1.) No MRI either it or my leg would explode, too much metal

2.) Boyd Staples used to live next door to me ,he became one of the "staples singers"

3.) My doctor says he's 100% American and will stick to inches and feet


billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

....My doctor says he's 100% American and will stick to inches and feet
Sounds like you're in good hands.... If you experience much pain just take two 800mg Motrin followed by four HUUUUGE swallows of 'The GoJi" and call me in the morning....

[Rob]

Dear Dr. Jack,

I don't know if you've become disillusioned to the point of leaving, but I hope not. I know you're probably feeling as though you've just been jumped. Who wouldn't? Anyway, all you did was decide not to join the POTW contest, and I was a little surprised at the reaction you got here--a bit excessive in my view. Please just chalk it up to a bit of over-exuberance on the part of those who really enjoy the contest. It's only because they really want[ed] you in there. If you think about it, it's sort of a back-handed compliment.

[Rob]

p.s. If I were Ernie, I'd be a little torqued off that someone who had just joined the board on my invitation got blasted right off the bat like that.

[mrmarket]

p.s. If I were Ernie, I'd be a little torqued off that someone who had just joined the board on my invitation got blasted right off the bat like that.


It's ok by me..you guys ARE the forum. I happen to think that Dr. Jack is intelligent and a pretty nice guy. If he sees no upside in posting here, that's really up to him. If you guys want him back, you'll ask nicely I suppose.

What I'd really like to see is more of the regulars starting their own threads. This way the one on one dialogue stays a little more contained.

[The Stock Girl]

I for one want Dr. Jack to return. I visited his myspace blog and I think he's totally cute!

[Rob]

Verrrry funny, whoever you are.

[Jack Haddad]

Folks, relax! I was in meetings since 7am. Now, let's trade!

[Jack Haddad]

Purchased 5 blocks at 63.33 and sold 500 June 62.50 calls for 2.60/contract. The stock has not participated in the recernt 3-day rally and is due for a pop-- all the reason to guarantee my deep in the money hedge and pocket a nice premium return upon June option expiration in three weeks.

Bought back 500 June 62.50 calls at 1.60 and wrote the 500 June 60 calls at 3.10

[Rob]

Folks, relax! I was in meetings since 7am. Now, let's trade!Glad to hear it, Doc. Now ... about your refusal to participate in the POTW ... heh heh, just kiddin'.

[lemonjello]

You might want to include the stock symbol in the body of the post so it is quoted. There have been so many miscellaneous posts since the original.


Bought back 500 June 62.50 calls at 1.60 and wrote the 500 June 60 calls at 3.10

[Rob]

You might want to include the stock symbol in the body of the post so it is quoted. There have been so many miscellaneous posts since the original.Jello, I had the same thought, but if I'm not mistaken, I think he's talkin' EBAY, a stock I owned for several years and did quite well with. I unloaded (I think) in April '04 in the $36 range.

[Jack Haddad]

You might want to include the stock symbol in the body of the post so it is quoted. There have been so many miscellaneous posts since the original.

I will do so from now on...Thanks for the notice.

[Rob]

Of course! EBAY isn't even close to that price. DUH! At least I'm still flexible enough to stick my foot in my mouth.

[Jack Haddad]

INTC's strength is the exact opposite of yesterday. weak! It cannot afford to trend down to its 17.73/17/77 lows from last week.

[spikefader]

INTC's strength is the exact opposite of yesterday. weak! It cannot afford to trend down to its 17.73/17/77 lows from last week.
INTC has potential to slip to 16.00 rather quickly.....and a weekly close at that level would make it start to resemble Burnt Toast.

[Jack Haddad]

I'm going to do what I hate most: speculate! I would say yesterday's and today's rally thus far are a sell. I'm going to bet on locking profits before tomorrow's resume of lower lows.

Comments/opinions?

[alice4321us]

I'm going to do what I hate most: speculate! I would say yesterday's and today's rally thus far are a sell. I'm going to bet on locking profits before tomorrow's resume of lower lows.

Comments/opinions?

I think tomorrow will be a negative day. First day of the month has usually been a Green day.

AAPL seems to be topping here.

[Jack Haddad]

INTC has potential to slip to 16.00 rather quickly.....and a weekly close at that level would make it start to resemble Burnt Toast.

As to technicals, a rapid drop to 16 from the current levels is not indicated. However, I could see it occuring if the company warns by reducing 2nd quarter estimates or guides lower for remainder of the year. If 17.75 is breached, next support is at 17.35 to 17.50

[Jack Haddad]

Rob,

Your IMCL is doing nicely today. It has surpassed the 40.00 which in my opinion was the pivatol point as well as an important psychological landmark for the stock to move higher.

[Rob]

Jack, this weekend will be a critical one with regard to ImClone's future. It all hinges on the trial results to be made public at the ASCO meeting in Atlanta, which starts tomorrow. I see today's activity as somewhat encouraging, but short of definitive.

[skiracer]

I'm going to do what I hate most: speculate! I would say yesterday's and today's rally thus far are a sell. I'm going to bet on locking profits before tomorrow's resume of lower lows.

Comments/opinions?

Jack,
I think there is alittle more gas left in the tank for tomorrow. Today looks like it will turn out to be an accumulation day. I like that and the fact that the DOW is bumping up against resistance at it's 20 EMA an it's 50 MA. Looks good for breaking those. It it does and holds it today then tomorrow has a decent chance for more of the same as today. What I don't like about Fridays, especially in the summer, is the take the money and run mindset that most of these hedge guys feel obligated to do every Friday afternoon. On the whole I'm still uncertain about the general continuance of an uptrend. Lots of mixed signals, both good and bad, on the economic front.
I'm holding one short-term long position, besides my long term position in GLD, in HOM which I bought yesterday at $10.44. It's looking good for today as it is up .50 from my entry at this moment. I like the stock and the position an was thinking the same thoughts as you were earlier about taking the gains off the table this afternoon but my target is in the $12/12.50 range, preferrably $12.50, and the position is looking strong today so I'm going to give it some room to breathe until tomorrow to see which way the wind blows in the morning. It's up on big volume today so it's earned a shot at tomorrow. I think you could be a little premature in exiting any of your positions that have held up and shown strength thru today. You could always bring a stop up close and see what the morning brings. You might be pleasantly surprised. I know I don't have to tell you this but I'll remind you anyway. Trade only what you see and not what you think.

[Websman]

Oh. Thank the Vulcans you're still here Dr Jack!

I was thinking that my knee problem was hopeless. Now, about that Boyd staple...

[Jack Haddad]

Jack,
I think there is alittle more gas left in the tank for tomorrow. Today looks like it will turn out to be an accumulation day. I like that and the fact that the DOW is bumping up against resistance at it's 20 EMA an it's 50 MA. Looks good for breaking those. It it does and holds it today then tomorrow has a decent chance for more of the same as today. What I don't like about Fridays, especially in the summer, is the take the money and run mindset that most of these hedge guys feel obligated to do every Friday afternoon. On the whole I'm still uncertain about the general continuance of an uptrend. Lots of mixed signals, both good and bad, on the economic front.
I'm holding one short-term long position, besides my long term position in GLD, in HOM which I bought yesterday at $10.44. It's looking good for today as it is up .50 from my entry at this moment. I like the stock and the position an was thinking the same thoughts as you were earlier about taking the gains off the table this afternoon but my target is in the $12/12.50 range, preferrably $12.50, and the position is looking strong today so I'm going to give it some room to breathe until tomorrow to see which way the wind blows in the morning. It's up on big volume today so it's earned a shot at tomorrow. I think you could be a little premature in exiting any of your positions that have held up and shown strength thru today. You could always bring a stop up close and see what the morning brings. You might be pleasantly surprised. I know I don't have to tell you this but I'll remind you anyway. Trade only what you see and not what you think.

Yea, the rally held solid grounds. It didn't sell towards the last 30 min. Tomorrow's payroll numbers could be spun off anyway you can think of. Let's see what tomorrow brings. As of now, my technicals show an intact uptrend, but weak market sentiment.

[Jack Haddad]

Have a good day everyone.

[The Stock Girl]

.........my technicals show an intact uptrend
mmmmmmm Doc!....... are we allowed to talk like this in here here $$$Mr. Market$$$?

[billyjoe]

Stock Girl,
Start your own thread. You look smart to me.
billyjoe

[Websman]

The Vulcans love Stock Girl...

[mrmarket]

The Vulcans love Stock Girl...


Must be Amok time...

[Websman]

Must be Amok time...


Vulcans have needs too...

[jcohen918]

Hello everyone, I am Jordan. I have been reading Dr. Haddad's myspce blogs for quite some time and this is my first post here.

A family friend of mine owns a decent amount of Juniper. He saw an article on TheStreet.com saying a bunch of insiders were dumping shares after it rallied up $1.54 today. Does anyone know anything about there being any truth to this? I haven't seen the article or been able to find it, but maybe someone on here has.

The first of many future posts,
Jordan

[lemonjello]

Got a link to the article?

Hello everyone, I am Jordan. I have been reading Dr. Haddad's myspce blogs for quite some time and this is my first post here.

A family friend of mine owns a decent amount of Juniper. He saw an article on TheStreet.com saying a bunch of insiders were dumping shares after it rallied up $1.54 today. Does anyone know anything about there being any truth to this? I haven't seen the article or been able to find it, but maybe someone on here has.

The first of many future posts,
Jordan

[billyjoe]

Jordan,
Insider selling isn't always bad news. Sometimes they just need the money and what better time to get it than after a big move up. 290,000 insider shares have been sold since Jan. 1st not counting today. That is much less than for previous 6 month periods going back last 1 1/2 years.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

mmmmmmm Doc!....... are we allowed to talk like this in here here $$$Mr. Market$$$?

Doug,
This has to be you Doug. What a pervert. I love it.

[IIC]

Doug,
This has to be you Doug. What a pervert. I love it.

It does sound like something I would do, doesn't it?...But I didn't...Although I have a few likely suspects in mind...Doug(IIC)

[spikefader]

Doug,
This has to be you Doug. What a pervert. I love it.hehe My first thought was Lye, but that's too obvious. It's probably Webs or maybe even dmk hehe

[spikefader]

As to technicals, a rapid drop to 16 from the current levels is not indicated. (INTC)The technicals I'm lookin' at indicate it jejeje

[skiracer]

hehe My first thought was Lye, but that's too obvious. It's probably Webs or maybe even dmk hehe

Spike,
I was thinking Doug because the address is LA.

[spikefader]

Spike,
I was thinking Doug because the address is LA.hehe yep, I looked at that exact same thing and then thought "Naaaah, Doug wouldn't put LA" hehe but then he's so clever he might try reverse psychology on us all and so ya.....maybe it is Doug lol

[Websman]

hehe My first thought was Lye, but that's too obvious. It's probably Webs or maybe even dmk hehe


Nope it ain't me...Must be Lye.

[The Stock Girl]

hehe yep, I looked at that exact same thing and then thought "Naaaah, Doug wouldn't put LA" hehe but then he's so clever he might try reverse psychology on us all and so ya.....maybe it is Doug lol
Why speculate boys? Can't you just accept me for who I am?

[skiracer]

hehe My first thought was Lye, but that's too obvious. It's probably Webs or maybe even dmk hehe

Speaking of DMK, we haven't heard anything from him lately. Hope everything is ok. Check in DMK.

[Jack Haddad]

Why speculate boys? Can't you just accept me for who I am?

I accept whom ever you may be, boy, girl, or both... So long as you have sound knowledge and judgment, you pass in my book.

[IIC]

hehe yep, I looked at that exact same thing and then thought "Naaaah, Doug wouldn't put LA" hehe but then he's so clever he might try reverse psychology on us all and so ya.....maybe it is Doug lol

I don't think she types w/ a Southern drawl...so that leaves out WEBS, LYE and ROB...IIC

[Websman]

I don't think she types w/ a Southern drawl...so that leaves out WEBS, LYE and ROB...IIC
Don't forget Runner who is from Alabama, and Gatorman who is from Florida...

[skiracer]

I accept whom ever you may be, boy, girl, or both... So long as you have sound knowledge and judgment, you pass in my book.

Jack,
You are so mature.

[Websman]

Jack,
You are so mature.

That's because he doesn't partake of the Goji.

[skiracer]

That's because he doesn't partake of the Goji.
Maybe that's what it would take to get a POTW pick out of him.

[Websman]

Besides....What's wrong with my southern accent?

[IIC]

Don't forget Runner who is from Alabama, and Gatorman who is from Florida...

Wait a minute...I thought Runner was from Georgia???...And Peanuts seems to know some hot chicks in Alabama...Gator Guy...I don't know if I really consider Florida "The South"...But then that would leave you out too Webs.

But...Anyway...I don't think any of the other 3 would pull a stunt like this...Peanuts might have it in him after the bashing he got when he first joined...But Nah...He's too nice a guy to pull it off IMO....And he got the last laugh w/ GV anyway.

Ya know...I got bashed when I first joined...But it was only because I kept posting in BOLD...I made up some cr*p about needing new glasses in response...LOL...Although it was true that I had an eye checkup appointment that day and did get new specs....My first bi-focals...And Geez...They sure are expensive...You get the blended...then they have 3 levels of thickness...I got the thinnest...Over $500 and I even had a coupon....That was the day after T-Giving 2003...Got a new pair since and I think I'll got get another one next month.

Seems like getting bashed when you new is a ritual around here...Too bad Jack is not a dermatologist...Maybe he'd have thicker skin???...Doug(IIC)

[IIC]

So far Jack seems to be ignoring me...Let me try again...

Jack...who discovered the Cup w/ Handle Pattern and when? From the articles I found you seem to be quite the expert.

Geez...I always try my best to answer questions on my thread...IIC

[Rob]

Jack...who discovered the Cup w/ Handle Pattern and when?I'm not Jack, but can I guess? Was it Nicolas Darvas in the early-to-mid 50s?

[IIC]

I'm not Jack, but can I guess? Was it Nicolas Darvas in the early-to-mid 50s?


No it wasn't...Not a bad guess though....Livermore would be a good guess too.

WON actually named the pattern circa 1965ish...But it was perfectly described in an earlier book by someone else...although it was called another name.

[Jack Haddad]

The numbers for the month of May came in at 75,000 compared to the expected 175,000, the weakest gain since hurricane-depressed October. However, the unemployment rate slipped to a five-year low of 4.6 percent, the Labor Department said on Friday.

[Jack Haddad]

TSO is on fire this morning...If oil remains strong for the upcoming week, the stock would challenge the 73.20 resistance.

[Jack Haddad]

Shorted at 30.97 The hourly was getting weaker after the gap up to 31.40

[Jack Haddad]

Shorted at 30.97 The hourly was getting weaker after the gap up to 31.40

Covered at 30.79

[Jack Haddad]

Bought at 30.61

[The Stock Girl]

So far Jack seems to be ignoring me...Let me try again.
You seem lonely IIC, I'll converse with you. You like riddles don't you? Now speaking of active communication, can you tell me a four letter word meaning intercourse?

[Jack Haddad]

Sohrted INTC at 18.12

[Rob]

. . . can you tell me a four letter word meaning intercourse?I know that one: T-A-L-K

[Lyehopper]

Sohrted INTC at 18.12
What's your target to cover INTC?

Do you ever trade anthing longer term?

Do you only trade Larger Cap stocks?

Are you a Dan Zanger subscriber?

[Jack Haddad]

Sohrted INTC at 18.12

Covered at 17.98

[IIC]

I know that one: T-A-L-K

Excellent Rob:

Main Entry: speech
Part of Speech: noun 1
Definition: talk
Synonyms: accent, articulation, communication, conversation, dialect, dialogue, diction, discussion, doublespeak*, doubletalk, enunciation, expressing, expression, gab, gas, idiom, intercourse, jargon, jive, language, lingo, locution, mother tongue, native tongue, oral communication, palaver, parlance, prattle, pronunciation, prose, speaking, spiel*, tone, tongue, utterance, verbalization, vernacular, vocal expression, vocalization, vocalizing, voice, voicing

[Jack Haddad]

What's your target to cover INTC?

Do you ever trade anthing longer term?

Do you only trade Larger Cap stocks?

Are you a Dan Zanger subscriber?

The duration of my trades depend on how my trades pan out. Remember, I don't set stop limit losses. As to market cap, I prefer mid to large.

[Lyehopper]

Covered at 17.98
I know a fella who lives in the Silicon Valley who trades much like you do Doc. He daytrades Mega Caps for about 1/2%+ per trade.... He trades with about a million dollars plus margin. He does very well too. He's a Dan Zanger follower.

[Lyehopper]

Doc.... Keep an eye on basic steel. I'm short AKS right now.

Look at X.... There's a 2% short play today for ya dude.

[Jack Haddad]

Doc.... Keep an eye on basic steel. I'm short AKS right now.

Look at X.... There's a 2% short play today for ya dude.

Of steel, I used to trade Zeus heavily... But, it was too chaotic. The entire sector had a tremendous run and is due for a pullback.

[Jack Haddad]

Google is relatively inexpensive based on several measures of value:

A. The stock is trading at 38 times the 8.89 dollar per share that analysts on average expect the company to earn in 2006 and 28 times 2007 earnings of 12 dollars per share! Compared with Yahoo's price-earnings ratio of 57 for this year and 42 based on next year's, Google is cheap! Market leaders such as Google can justifiably trade at P/Es ranging from 50 to 60. For example, a 600 dollar one year target price assumes 2007 earnings per share of 11.98 and a P/E ratio of 50.

B. PEG ratio is another manner in which Google's value may be measured. The faster the growth, the more justifiable a high P/E. In Google's case, the expected growth is 31% per year for the next 5 years. So its PEG is 1.2 based on this year's earnings forecast and 0.9 based on next year's. Generally, a PEG ratio close to 1 is considered cheap! A leading growth company like Google should trade at a PEG of 1.5 to 2.0. For example, a 600 one year target is based on a PEG of 1.6. By contrast, Yahoo's PEG is 2.5 on 2006 profit estimates and 1.9 on next year's.

C. If you want to take your analysis to a higher level of sophistication and complexity, forget the P/E ratio. Because various accounting maneuvers can distort reported earnings, many analysts rely on purer measure of profitability that goes by the acronym EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amoritization).

D. Also, enterprise value (a company's stock market capitalization plus outstanding debt minus its cash holdings) is a better measure than a stock market value alone of how investors value a company; that said, if you describe Google's enterprise value by its Ebitda based on 2006 estimates, you get 23. The number by itself is meaningless, but compared with Yahoo's 34, it seems to suggest once again that Google is reasonably priced.

[Rob]

Jack, again I agree whoeheartedly! Which is why I am also long GOOG. It's just a matter of time.

Thank you for posting that.

[Jack Haddad]

Jack, again I agree whoeheartedly! Which is why I am also long GOOG. It's just a matter of time.

Thank you for posting that.

And the larger the short float, the better for longs.

[sisterwin2]

You seem lonely IIC, I'll converse with you. You like riddles don't you? Now speaking of active communication, can you tell me a four letter word meaning intercourse?

and i worried about my pic

[Jack Haddad]

Folks, today, INTC is erupting higher against the Dow!!! When I couple the last few days's behavior, it appears that INTC is silently being accumulated... and is about to smike the short float. I have witnessed this behavior in the past (when a stock trades against market sentiment), and it has resulted in massive short covering propelling the stock higher.

Other factors playing role are the release of their Woodcrest Core duel server patform which is not only better than AMD's but 120 dollars cheaper. Shorts, please be aware.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought at 30.61

Wrote 100 June 30.00 calls at 1.55/contract to hedge against my shares which I nought earlier at 30.61

[Jack Haddad]

HOM just took a dump; thank goodness my shares were hedged with the June 10 calls!

[IIC]

First thing that pops into my mind when I think of HOM is....zzzzbest carpet cleaning...IIC

[Jack Haddad]

Everyone, have a wonderful weekend and be safe!

[IIC]

Stocklemon on HOM:
http://www.stocklemon.com/
Not sure how long that stays up...so here is a copy FWIW:

June 2, 2006

Stocklemon Reports on Home Solutions of America



Is Home Solutions a Natural Disaster Waiting to Happen? Stocklemon Reports on (Amex:HOM)

What is Home Solutions?

Home Solutions was a dormant company and had no operations during most of 2002. Between then and the present, they have spent $50 million in cheap stock and expensive debt to acquire 5 small building services companies – $1.5 to $16 million apiece. These 5 companies comprise 100% of the present day HOM, which, in an astounding feat of new math, is now conferred a fully diluted market cap of over $440 million!

Over the past year, the stock has made a major move as investors flocked to it as a potential benefactor of the Hurricane Katrina clean-up. Yet, Stocklemon cautions investors, that they not worry about the potential for another hurricane but rather they should be concerned about a tsunami of insider selling and a business model that has an ominous sense of déjà vu’.

Lets Get To the Nitty Gritty

While the stock is up from $2 in a year, let us see if the business has improved equally as well.

In June of 2005, the quarterly revenue was $16 mil and the stock was $1.36. In March of 2006, a scant 9 months later, the revenue was $19 mil and the stock has visited $14 and is now $11.

…But it gets better

In just under 15 months, the shares outstanding have gone from 16 million to north of 40 million. Therefore, during that same 15-month period, the market cap is up from $27 million to $440 million, a 1600% increase!

Stocklemon notes that during the last 4 reporting periods, a problem with accounts receivable is emerging. Consider the following table:


Mar-06
Dec-05
Sep-05
Jun-05

Revenues
19,280,000
22,342,000
20,376,000
16,055,000

Receivables
20,857,000
20,585,000
16,742,000
9,501,000

Days sales in Receivables
97.4
82.9
73.9
53.3




Receivables compared to sales has marched steadily higher – one common measure, days sales in receivables, is up over 97 from a too-high 53 in the most recent quarter. That’s over a full quarter’s revenue. The company commented in its 10-K (period ending December) that 52% of that receivable came from one (unidentified) customer. There was no further comment in the March quarter, but any exposure buried in that receivable number could negatively impact reported earnings.

Additionally, the profits reported in the last quarter are “cashless” – that is, the cash flow statement ate up 80% of the net income. If that receivables ratio doesn’t clean up, and quickly, some serious questions are going to be asked about whether HOM is in fact truly profitable or not.

On Balance

HOM’s balance sheet looks more like a $40 million company than a $440 million one. Absent the goodwill and intangibles, there’s about $40 million in assets and $10 million liabilities.

With competition from other vendors both larger and smaller, the company’s success depends entirely on dramatically expanding both revenues and margins in a market space that by its nature is low-margin and highly competitive. Barriers to entry, anyone?

This is Our Favorite

On May 15, 2006 HOM stated that their 2006 revenue guidance is $160-$165 million. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060515/earns_home_solutions_of_america.html?.v=1



To meet the guidance that the company just issued, they are going to have to average $46.6 million for the next 3 quarters. Meeting that guidance requires each of the next three quarters to rake in revenues more than double the highest revenue quarter in the company’s history.

Then, just two weeks after this “lofty” guidance comes out, the CEO “sold” (or should we say dumped) over $6 million worth of stock, the President of the company sold $5.3 million, and the President of one of their largest subsidiaries filed to sell 200,000 shares as well.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=HOM

Home Solutions CEO is Frank Fradella

Prior to being the CEO of Home Solutions Mr. Fradella was the Chairman/CEO and COO of American Eco-Corp.

http://www.homcorp.com/index.php/investor/details/frank_fradella

American Eco was also a roll up in the outsourcing of services to construction management industries.. They built the company through acquisitions as well.

http://www.highbeam.com/library/docfree.asp?DOCID=1G1:17648183&ctrlInfo=Round20%3AMode20b%3ADocG%3AResult&ao

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_1996_March_14/ai_18092447

American Eco was a rollup just like Home Solutions

American Eco also put out lofty revenue targets and announcements about big revenue deals

http://www.highbeam.com/library/docfree.asp?DOCID=1G1:17793216&ctrlInfo=Round20%3AMode20b%3ADocG%3AResult&ao

http://www.highbeam.com/library/docfree.asp?DOCID=1G1:18544053&ctrlInfo=Round20%3AMode20b%3ADocG%3AResult&ao

American Eco is now Bankrupt and trades at $.0001

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ECGOQ.PK

CEOCast

The main “promoter” behind HOM seems to be CEOCast who touts the stock in a series of emails that it sends to its subscribers. For its investor relations emails, CEOCast receives $7500 a month plus 50,000 shares of stock. Stocklemon first introduced our readers to CEOCast as they touted World Information Technolgy as their special situations alert.

http://www.stocklemon.com/articles/02_04_04.html

The following month that stock was halted by the SEC.

The spokesman for CEOCast is Michael Wachs. His actual role in the company is understandably a topic of debate -- Mr. Wachs has pleaded guilty to bank fraud in the past and served 11 months at Club Fed. He has reinvented himself as an IR Guru -- with 50,000 shares plus $7.500 a month, he is obviously doing something right. http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Press/enforcement/1998/19980206/Attachment.pdf

Conclusion

At the very least, the insider's run to the bank with mountains of cheap stock seems premature. If the company is truly just now perfectly positioned to reap the benefits of massive hurricane-related remediation work, what’s their hurry? If, on the other hand, the business has been “groomed” for the appearance of growth – rolling up low margin companies into a huge ball of cashless profits, the worst case scenario is far more ominous.

Mania and hysteria are not sound reasons to buy a stock. Just because you believe that the word “hurricane”, “bird flu”, or “China” is attached to a stock, there is no substitute for good homework. Before running up the market cap of this company above half a billion dollars, investors should consider doing their own HOMework.

Cautious Investing To All.

[Runner]

Doug, I watched the Enron story last week…

[billyjoe]

Doug,
That is bad news. A person could have made a fortune shorting IIG after the stocklemon expose. At the same time it was really hot on the IBD boards and some here liked it as well. It might be time to cash in my HOM or maybe I'll give it another week.

billyjoe

[IIC]

Doug, I watched the Enron story last week…

IMO...those guys should be locked up and they should throw away the key...I may not be the nicest guy around but I am honest and ethical.

Unfortunately we only hear about the one's that get caught...But IMO there are a lot of crooks out there...Doug

[IIC]

Doug,
That is bad news. A person could have made a fortune shorting IIG after the stocklemon expose. At the same time it was really hot on the IBD boards and some here liked it as well. It might be time to cash in my HOM or maybe I'll give it another week.

billyjoe

I was just presenting it because HOM was mentioned here...I don't know if Stock Lemon is right or has any influence...I read it this morn...That's what made me think of Barry Minkow (zzzzzBest)

[IIC]

Hey Doc...

What do you think about the Gov't announcing things like "Seasonally Adjusted"???

I think it is a crock...What do you think???

[skiracer]

HOM just took a dump; thank goodness my shares were hedged with the June 10 calls!

Jack,
Explain the trade please. Do you own the stock and sold the June (homfb) 10calls. At what price was your entry on the stock and if you sold the calls at what price?

[Jack Haddad]

Hey Doc...

What do you think about the Gov't announcing things like "Seasonally Adjusted"???

I think it is a crock...What do you think???

Are you referring to interest rates?

[Jack Haddad]

Jack,
Explain the trade please. Do you own the stock and sold the June (homfb) 10calls. At what price was your entry on the stock and if you sold the calls at what price?

May 25, 2006 12:32 PM
Subject: RE:HOM
Body: Purchased shares at 11.37, and sold open the June strike 10 calls at 1.80/contract.

[IIC]

Are you referring to interest rates?

Actually...I was thinking about the employment numbers...There is quite a room for error in "Seasonally" adjusted numbers...which I also take that there is quite a bit of room for manipulation of those numbers....I prefer to look at the "Raw" or "Not Seasonally" adjusted numbers...It is what it is...IIC

http://www.bls.gov/ncs/ect/ectsfact.htm

[skiracer]

May 25, 2006 12:32 PM
Subject: RE:HOM
Body: Purchased shares at 11.37, and sold open the June strike 10 calls at 1.80/contract.

Jack,
What are your thoughts on that article from Stocklemon.com regarding HOM that Doug posted the other day?

[Jack Haddad]

Jack,
What are your thoughts on that article from Stocklemon.com regarding HOM that Doug posted the other day?

I don't pay any attention to such articles that are without scrutiny or strict monitoring of an independent peer review panel. I like facts that can examined, and if found distorted, can be held liable.

Here is a link of an article on HOM which contradicts everything stocklemon.com wrote. The article was submitted for publication by Home Solutions od America, INC. themselves. They welcome any comments/criticism you may have. That's the kind of literature that hard-core pressed scientists like me appreciate, and not some websites that are posting information for some secondary gain.

http://www.avcg.net/news/newsandarticles_article.asp?DID=106

[Jack Haddad]

Garnett & helfrich Capital, a venture buyout company in San Mateo has expressed an interest in playing a role with Intel's communication and application processors-- which are both for sale as part of the 90-days restructuring plan of Intel's money-losing businesses.

This gesture may very explain why Intel was trending up against the Dow for the last 3 trading sessions, while AMD lost nearly 2.20 points. The sale of money-losing businesses has always been considered plausible with analysts.

Moreover, Intel's Menroe Chip was evaluated by several analysts and was given high remarks. The chip will be out and shiiping beginning tomorrow.

[Jack Haddad]

Folks, CEO Terry Semel has agreed on an annual salary reduction from 600,000/year to 1 dollar/year through 2008 in exchange for 6 millions of the company's stock options at an exercise price of 31.59 (last Wednesday's closing price). Also, as part of this renegotiated salary contract, Semel will be eligible to receive a bonus of up to one million stock options annually through 2008.

Aside from the bullish fundamentals and technicals, which I will be commenting on later in excruciating details, I consider this gesture very tenacious and assuring of higher share prices to come!

[New-born baby]

Folks, CEO Terry Semel has agreed on an annual salary reduction from 600,000/year to 1 dollar/year through 2008 in exchange for 6 millions of the company's stock options at an exercise price of 31.59 (last Wednesday's closing price). Also, as part of this renegotiated salary contract, Semel will be eligible to receive a bonus of up to one million stock options annually through 2008.

Aside from the bullish fundamentals and technicals, which I will be commenting on later in excruciating details, I consider this gesture very tenacious and assuring of higher share prices to come!

Yes. Yes, indeed.

[skiracer]

I don't pay any attention to such articles that are without scrutiny or strict monitoring of an independent peer review panel. I like facts that can examined, and if found distorted, can be held liable.

Here is a link of an article on HOM which contradicts everything stocklemon.com wrote. The article was submitted for publication by Home Solutions od America, INC. themselves. They welcome any comments/criticism you may have. That's the kind of literature that hard-core pressed scientists like me appreciate, and not some websites that are posting information for some secondary gain.

http://www.avcg.net/news/newsandarticles_article.asp?DID=106

I don't either. Thanks for the link.

[IIC]

I don't pay any attention to such articles that are without scrutiny or strict monitoring of an independent peer review panel. I like facts that can examined, and if found distorted, can be held liable.

Here is a link of an article on HOM which contradicts everything stocklemon.com wrote. The article was submitted for publication by Home Solutions od America, INC. themselves. They welcome any comments/criticism you may have. That's the kind of literature that hard-core pressed scientists like me appreciate, and not some websites that are posting information for some secondary gain.

http://www.avcg.net/news/newsandarticles_article.asp?DID=106


C'mon Jack!!!!...Everything I read about you on the net is positive...You certainly may be a great investor...But you gotta a ways to go as far as naivete...That is a paid PR announcement...Doug(IIC)

[Jack Haddad]

C'mon Jack!!!!...Everything I read about you on the net is positive...You certainly may be a great investor...But you gotta a ways to go as far as naivete...That is a paid PR announcement...Doug(IIC)


No no, let there be no mistakes here.

[IIC]

No no, let there be no mistakes here.


LOL...Well...At least I finally got a dialogue w/ you...I thought I was invisible on your thread...Nice to know that you finally recognized that I do exist...Thanks.

As far as HOM...I have no idea whether or not anything Stocklemon said is true...I am not at all interested in HOM myself anymore anyway.

But that site you posted is an IR/PR site...I know them well.

So now we know each other...Let's get down to biz...I was just givin' you a hard time(Sort of an initiation process...Not that I'm in charge of it or anything)...Just my nature...Now let's forget the nonsense and make some bux...AND BTW...WELCOME JACK...Best, Doug(IIC)

[Jack Haddad]

Based on most recent regulatory filings, industrila companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 with the most cash, in billions, are the following:

1. Exxon Mobile 36.5
2. Microsoft 34.8
3. Johnson & Johnson 17.2
4. Pfizer 15.5
5. Cisco Systems 15.0
6. Motorola 14.6
7. Aetna 14.4
8. Merck 12.4
9. IBM 12.3
10. Hewlett Packard 11.9

[Jack Haddad]

AMD is an interesting play here. The short term indicator is bearish, especially after closing below the 30.65 to 30.70 pivatol point. The 6-months chart reveals a support of 29.00. For those who are looking for a swing short trade, initiate a position on a gap up come tomorrow.

However, fundamentals are quite bullish for the long run. The company said that it will increase its capacity at its primary manufacturing center in Germany fourfold from its 2005 levels by the end of 2009. AMD now holds 26% of the lucrative U.S. server-chip business and 48% of multicore processors. Most significantly, AMD's gross margin passed Intel's for the first time last quarter -- 58.5%, vs. 55.1%.

Once could accumulate the shares and hedge with covered calls. The august and september 30.00 strikes are very premium juicy. By the time those options expire, the stock would have created a support and reverse trend to the upside.

[IIC]

FWIW...I mentioned something similar in the POTW thread over the weekend...From Briefing this morn:

9:01 ET Home Solutions responds to inquiries regarding acct receivables, guidance, stock sales (HOM) 9.71 :Co responds to investor inquiries concerning its Accounts Receivable and other matters. In executing its disaster relief work from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which the co classifies as recovery services, many of the receivables are paid over longer time periods due to govt agencies and insurance cos reimbursing claims for work performed. As a result, receivables have increased in absolute dollars and in DSO's, although at a more favorable rate than the restoration and recovery industry overall. The co expects the DSO's to decrease throughout the year as its business shifts to build-back work during Q2 and throughout the balance of the year. During Q2, the co has already collected insurance-backed receivables, valued at $1.5 mln that were over 150 days old. Over the past two years, the co has experienced bad debt expense related to receivables of less than 1% of revenue. The co's $10 mln credit facility remains unused. The co also says it remains confident that it will meet or exceed its recently updated outlook. Co says that "Since the conclusion of the Mayoral election, work has increased in New Orleans." Finally, the co notes that recent sales of stock by the C.E.O. were the first such sales by the executives since the co's inception. The sales were conducted for diversification and estate planning purposes. In connection with the sales, Mr. Fradella exercised options to acquire an additional 1.6 mln shares at a cost of $2.8 mln, significantly increasing the number of shares he directly owns.

[Jack Haddad]

Decided to go with HOV instead. Snatched 3 blocks at 32.90 and wrote 300 June 30 calls for 3.40 in hope that my shares will get called away. I'll take
.50/contract for a return.


Added 3 blocks at 30.73, and sold the 300 june 30.00 calls at 1.40/contract. The 30 min chart is oversold. Today's drop, though steep, is well hedged by the calls I wrote earlier on 5/26/06

[Jack Haddad]

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=TSO&num1=7&cobrand=&mode=stock

The above 6-month chart on TSO is very interesting. Note the inverse head-and-shoulder pattern which spanned from Feb 15 to March 8. This has cuased the stock to propel to a a 52 week high of 75. Thereafter, the stock has recently trended down to test the intermediate term support of 65, but was noty successful in breaching the 6 months support of 60.75.

At this hour, the stock has gained strength on the hourly...and since horizontal support stands a good support at 62.50, I did the following: Purchased shares at 65.40, and wrote the June 65 strike calls for 2.85/contract. I feel this strategy provides a good hedge for the time being. I will update all changes/executions later.

Sold 3 blocks of TSO at 70.54, and bought back 300 June 65.00 calls at 6.10 for a gain of 1.85 points. I could have held until epiration. However, TSO has a habit of retreating close to its strike price 10-14 days before expiration day. Also, I needed to free some capital for other plays.

[Jack Haddad]

For those who wish to play this stock for a trade: If you want your shares unhedged, buy above the pivatol mark of of 31.10 and look for the resistance of 32.50. However, current support is at 30. I bought 3 blocks at 30.54, and wrote the June 30 calls at 1.15/contract. Energy stocks shall do great in the months to come.

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=PTEN&num1=13&cobrand=&mode=stock

[Jack Haddad]

Bought TSO at 69.30 for a scalp

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 5 blocks at 27.30-27.40, and wrote 100 july 30 calls for .65/contract, and 400 july 25 for 3.10/contract. I believe in this stock more than ever.

[DSteckler]

Bought 5 blocks at 27.30-27.40, and wrote 100 july 30 calls for .65/contract, and 400 july 25 for 3.10/contract. I believe in this stock more than ever.

If you liked it at 50 you'll really like it at 40, and love it at 30....<g>

[Jack Haddad]

Bought TSO at 69.30 for a scalp

Wrote 35 June 30.00 calls at 1.20/contract.

[studentofthemarket]

Folks, CEO Terry Semel has agreed on an annual salary reduction from 600,000/year to 1 dollar/year through 2008 in exchange for 6 millions of the company's stock options at an exercise price of 31.59 (last Wednesday's closing price). Also, as part of this renegotiated salary contract, Semel will be eligible to receive a bonus of up to one million stock options annually through 2008.

Aside from the bullish fundamentals and technicals, which I will be commenting on later in excruciating details, I consider this gesture very tenacious and assuring of higher share prices to come!


1 buck a year through 2008. Hmmm This is 2006, so he's giving up 3x600,000 - 6 bucks(if you consider the contract starts with the 2006 salary), of which I'd imagine he's already gotten nearly 300k because we're nearly halfway through the year) = 1.79999 etc. M in actual salary, for 6 million options. And you think this is some great thing? The stock price goes up a buck,and he's like $4M to the good. And that doesn't count the potential bonus options that could be as much as 3M total for the period. So suddenly he's $3M to the good on TOP of the $4M he gets base? And all the price has to do is go up a little bit over the next 3 years? Unless his required holding period is like 10 years. This is a joke.

Just how is this swell news for the shareholder? This guy just got one of the sweetest deals around and people think that is assuring of higher share prices? ya all it has to do is go up a buck. Hell even less than a buck and he's rolling in money. compared to what he was earning in salary over the same time period.

this is a giant warning siren! It Looks like he's going all out there. but based on the info quoted above. There's nothing tenacious or assuring about it.

Yahoo investors are more likely to BooHoo than Yahoo.

Not to mention the fact that if the Repubs bumble and the tax the INTERNET folks get into office, the whole online commerce world will get turned upside down.

anyway, that's my take.

studentofthemarket

[Jack Haddad]

1 buck a year through 2008. Hmmm This is 2006, so he's giving up 3x600,000 - 6 bucks(if you consider the contract starts with the 2006 salary), of which I'd imagine he's already gotten nearly 300k because we're nearly halfway through the year) = 1.79999 etc. M in actual salary, for 6 million options. And you think this is some great thing? The stock price goes up a buck,and he's like $4M to the good. And that doesn't count the potential bonus options that could be as much as 3M total for the period. So suddenly he's $3M to the good on TOP of the $4M he gets base? And all the price has to do is go up a little bit over the next 3 years? Unless his required holding period is like 10 years. This is a joke.

Just how is this swell news for the shareholder? This guy just got one of the sweetest deals around and people think that is assuring of higher share prices? ya all it has to do is go up a buck. Hell even less than a buck and he's rolling in money. compared to what he was earning in salary over the same time period.

this is a giant warning siren! It Looks like he's going all out there. but based on the info quoted above. There's nothing tenacious or assuring about it.

Yahoo investors are more likely to BooHoo than Yahoo.

Not to mention the fact that if the Repubs bumble and the tax the INTERNET folks get into office, the whole online commerce world will get turned upside down.

anyway, that's my take.

studentofthemarket

Let's allow time to expire and tell us something.

[Jack Haddad]

Purchased 5 blocks at 63.33 and sold 500 June 62.50 calls for 2.60/contract. The stock has not participated in the recernt 3-day rally and is due for a pop-- all the reason to guarantee my deep in the money hedge and pocket a nice premium return upon June option expiration in three weeks.

Bought back 500 calls at .80/contract and wrote 500 June 57.50 at 3.40/contract. Testing the 59.25 os last week's low is imminent!

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 5 blocks at 27.30-27.40, and wrote 100 july 30 calls for .65/contract, and 400 july 25 for 3.10/contract. I believe in this stock more than ever.

Sold 1 block at 27.67, and covered 100 July 30.00 calls at .80/contract to take some profits off of the table.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 1 block for a scalp on the gap down at 26.60

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 1 block for a scalp on the gap down at 26.60

Sold at 26.76

[IIC]

HOM trashed again...True or not...I don't think this is helping the stock:

http://www.stocklemon.com/06_06_06.html

[DSteckler]

There's gonna be some serious lawsuits over this one.

[sisterwin2]

I remember when I first bought into HOM..... was doing well then they did something that I cant even remember.......... but something like sold block of stock for way lower then I paid. I sold. I bet if I went back reading about home on this forum it is there plan and simple.

I have not trusted HOM since. I am glad some of you made money off of it though.

Too much playing as a kid to remember the details and at the time I didnt undetstand what they did... anyone remember?

[Jack Haddad]

Sold 1 block at 27.67, and covered 100 July 30.00 calls at .80/contract to take some profits off of the table.

Bought back the 400 July 25 calls at 2.40/contract.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 1 block for a scalp at 26.04 on an oversold hourly.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought back the 400 July 25 calls at 2.40/contract.


Sold open 400 July strike 30 calls at .45/contract. The selling is insane on this sector and I would like to maximize by taking advantage of the ride up. TOL is a likely merger or buying acquisition target.

[Jack Haddad]

Based on the current technicals, the 6-month chart is showing a solid support of 5.85, though the short and intermediate terms are quite bullish. On May 16, the gap up from 10.93 to 11.70 is very bullish. If the stock close above 12.50, then it stand s a good chance in challenging the 13.75 resistance.

Purchased shares at 11.37, and sold open the June strike 10 calls at 1.80/contract.

Covered 100 June 10.00 calls at .10

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 1 block for a scalp at 26.04 on an oversold hourly.

Out at 26.27

[Jack Haddad]

Covered 100 June 10.00 calls at .10

Wrote 100 July 7.50 calls for .90/contract. I'll take what I can get. This is not looking good.

[Jack Haddad]

Correction, I meant the June 17.50 calls.

Covered the June 17.50 at .35/contract.

[Jack Haddad]

If you liked it at 50 you'll really like it at 40, and love it at 30....<g>

Dave, the stock is still very cheap fundamentally, despite all of the trim in the yearly estimates.

[Jack Haddad]

It has indeed retreated from the 70.55, habitually. The US incentives and open talks with Iran is not good for high oil prices. But, I bought 1 block at 66.21 and wrote 100 June 65.00 at 2.40/contract.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 2 blocks at 38.40 and wrote 200 July 35 calls at 4.80

[Jack Haddad]

Today's upgrade in the wake of an SEC inquiry is just nuts! Shorted 1/2 a block at 8.37 and will dollar cost average if need to. Folks, this play is not for the weak-hand... hedge yourselves accordingly.

[grebnet]

Today's upgrade in the wake of an SEC inquiry is just nuts! Shorted 1/2 a block at 8.37 and will dollar cost average if need to. Folks, this play is not for the weak-hand... hedge yourselves accordingly.
What inquiry are you talking about ? I havent seen one.

[Jack Haddad]

What inquiry are you talking about ? I havent seen one.

My mistake, I meant "investor's inquiry" in regards to the 800k that the company lent to one customer.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 2 blocks at 17.43 on an oversold hourly ahead of the 9am research meeting occuring at Santa Clara Headquarters.

[Lyehopper]

Today's upgrade in the wake of an SEC inquiry is just nuts! Shorted 1/2 a block at 8.37 and will dollar cost average if need to. Folks, this play is not for the weak-hand... hedge yourselves accordingly.
I tried to short HOM since lunch today and could never get any shares dude.... How were you able to borrow the shares?.... Exactly how many shares is a "block" anyhow?

[billyjoe]

Lye,
Apparently it was difficult to purchase shares long in the 5.00 area yesterday.

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Apparently it was difficult to purchase shares long in the 5.00 area yesterday.

billyjoe
LOL!.... No doubt....

I was attempting to short "at market" and every time a notice would pop up "no shares of this equity are available to short".... I'll bet I tried twenty times over a two hour period. EDIT: Maybe stocklemon.com has all the short shares tied up....SsSsSsSsss!

Did anyone else short HOM (or attempt to) today?

[skiracer]

LOL!.... No doubt....

I was attempting to short "at market" and every time a notice would pop up "no shares of this equity are available to short".... I'll bet I tried twenty times over a two hour period. EDIT: Maybe stocklemon.com has all the short shares tied up....SsSsSsSsss!

Did anyone else short HOM (or attempt to) today?

I looked at it yesterday and today and got the basically the same response. I was wondering how he got the shares myself. Btw Lye, I hope that short position on WIRE works out for you. Giving a channel long signal on the weekly plus I think it could be a "c" wave completion working there right now with an impulse spike up waiting in the wings. This thing has given back quite a bit over the last week or so and will turn up with a vengenance when it does.

[IIC]

I tried to short HOM since lunch today and could never get any shares dude.... How were you able to borrow the shares?.... Exactly how many shares is a "block" anyhow?

I don't know about Doc...But I think of a block as 10,000 shares or more...Doug(IIC)

[billyjoe]

In the olden days we called 100 shares a block.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

I don't know about Doc...But I think of a block as 10,000 shares or more...Doug(IIC)

I would think that Doc thinks of a block as his typical max trade, like I use 1000 shares as a typical trade or position size, an anything less or more would be the percentage of that sizing. A half position would be 500 shares and a double position would be 2000 shares. I don't know what his trading capital is but the way he has been trading, according to his posts, his trading account would have to be over several million, which isn't improbable, but that's alot of money for an individual to be day and swing trading with on a daily basis. Especially if your open in 4 or 5 positions an each trade is a block of 10000 shares. His post at 11.31 am today was for two blocks @ $38.40. If each block were 10000 shares that's $768,000.00 on one trade. But he offsets it by selling 200 calls @ $4.80 which gives him $480 per contract x 200contracts = $98,000.00. The trade still costs him $670,000.00 plus whatever he is paying in commissions an that is only one trade. He had a few trades today an although I'm not clocking the guy I would bet without looking closely that he traded close to a couple of million today alone. But that's assuming that a block is equivalent to 10000 shares. That's alot of money. An even moreso is that fact of getting into an out of blocks of 10000 doesn't always happen that easily. Especially if you're short a position and the stock starts spiking up and you're looking to unwind the position.

[IIC]

In the olden days we called 100 shares a block.

billyjoe

How old are you???

I would call shs in the even 100's...e.g. 100,200,500...Round Lots...anything different; e.g. 289,671,805...Odd Lots...IIC

[IIC]

I would think that Doc thinks of a block as his typical max trade, like I use 1000 shares as a typical trade or position size, an anything less or more would be the percentage of that sizing. A half position would be 500 shares and a double position would be 2000 shares. I don't know what his trading capital is but the way he has been trading, according to his posts, his trading account would have to be over several million, which isn't improbable, but that's alot of money for an individual to be day and swing trading with on a daily basis. Especially if your open in 4 or 5 positions an each trade is a block of 10000 shares. His post at 11.31 am today was for two blocks @ $38.40. If each block were 10000 shares that's $768,000.00 on one trade. But he offsets it by selling 200 calls @ $4.80 which gives him $480 per contract x 200contracts = $98,000.00. The trade still costs him $670,000.00 plus whatever he is paying in commissions an that is only one trade. He had a few trades today an although I'm not clocking the guy I would bet without looking closely that he traded close to a couple of million today alone. But that's assuming that a block is equivalent to 10000 shares. That's alot of money. An even moreso is that fact of getting into an out of blocks of 10000 doesn't always happen that easily. Especially if you're short a position and the stock starts spiking up and you're looking to unwind the position.

Well...Doc can answer for himself then...I was just giving the generic def. of a BLOCK.

But how do you know if he's not margining himself to the hilt where possible?

But we both know that it is not proper forum ettiquette to give $ figures on your trades...so I wouldn't even ask Doc or anyone else how much they are trading anyway.

However, AND I'M NOT ONE OF THEM...I personally know people that throw around over a mil $ a day in dt's...and even on single trades...those people do exist....And I believe there are quite a few of them out there...Doug(IIC)

[DSteckler]

Guys, you're forgetting he's trading for a hedge fund.

[IIC]

Today's Stocklemon HOM report:
http://www.stocklemon.com/06_07_06.html

[skiracer]

Well...Doc can answer for himself then...I was just giving the generic def. of a BLOCK.

But how do you know if he's not margining himself to the hilt where possible?

But we both know that it is not proper forum ettiquette to give $ figures on your trades...so I wouldn't even ask Doc or anyone else how much they are trading anyway.

However, AND I'M NOT ONE OF THEM...I personally know people that throw around over a mil $ a day in dt's...and even on single trades...those people do exist....And I believe there are quite a few of them out there...Doug(IIC)

I agree with you Doug. I'm not disputing your definition of a block trade as 10000 shares. I was just putting a numerical value on what he is doing. It's probably way over a million an I'm sure there are plenty of people out there with more than him who are doing this everyday. Dave's post puts it in a better perspective when you realize that he is trading for a hedge fund with a very large trading account. He must have much better outlets and sources than any of us as he got the shares he wanted in shorting HOM. I didn't see any available yesterday or today.

[Rob]

I always see his posted trades as implying that a block is 10,000 shares because the numbers of call contracts he writes, in order to hedge his positions, always seem to be 100 x the number of blocks. 100 x 100 = 10,000.

[jcohen918]

Can anyone give me their input on GNBT. It was a momentum play / swing trade for me during the Bird Flu speculation a few weeks ago. Please leave me your thoughts.

[Jack Haddad]

Today's upgrade in the wake of an SEC inquiry is just nuts! Shorted 1/2 a block at 8.37 and will dollar cost average if need to. Folks, this play is not for the weak-hand... hedge yourselves accordingly.

Covered at 7.54

[Jack Haddad]

I tried to short HOM since lunch today and could never get any shares dude.... How were you able to borrow the shares?.... Exactly how many shares is a "block" anyhow?


A block is 10,000 shares

[Jack Haddad]

Well...Doc can answer for himself then...I was just giving the generic def. of a BLOCK.

But how do you know if he's not margining himself to the hilt where possible?

But we both know that it is not proper forum ettiquette to give $ figures on your trades...so I wouldn't even ask Doc or anyone else how much they are trading anyway.

However, AND I'M NOT ONE OF THEM...I personally know people that throw around over a mil $ a day in dt's...and even on single trades...those people do exist....And I believe there are quite a few of them out there...Doug(IIC)

Thank you, Doug... Btwen my personal and management fund acount, I cannot specify the trades for discretionary reasons. But, 1 block is 10,000 shares.

[billyjoe]

Geez , I really am an old timer.

billyjoe

[jcohen918]

I had posted earlier about GNBT, and Dr Jack had given me his insight on the company's standing in the overall market right now, which was very helpful.

If Dr Jack or anyone else has any input or opinions on it I would appreciate it. I am writing a paper for a summer class on GNBT and need to get as many people's opinion as possible. I have already quoted Dr Jack in my paper.

[Jack Haddad]

Added 1 block at 17.10 The stock is a bragain, and the more negative sentiment, the more I buy!

[lemonjello]

Hi Dr. Jack,

I am writing a college paper on making millions in the stock market on $25 per day.

Can you do most of my work for me? Thanks in advance.

[jcohen918]

I appreciate your concern about my paper, but I want Dr Jack's opinion because I value it. He is very smart when it comes to the market and has experience. He sees things in the market and knows things about the market that I haven't yet experienced. I have only been trading part-time for 4 years. I've put myself through college at $32,000/year plus spending money... which is a little more than $25 a day thanks. His posts have been nothing but informative and have helped me mold my trading style similar to his which is why I take an interest. Maybe you should take an interest in his postings instead of finding someone else's postings to complain about and mock.

[Websman]

I appreciate your concern about my paper, but I want Dr Jack's opinion because I value it. He is very smart when it comes to the market and has experience. He sees things in the market and knows things about the market that I haven't yet experienced. I have only been trading part-time for 4 years. I've put myself through college at $32,000/year plus spending money... which is a little more than $25 a day thanks. His posts have been nothing but informative and have helped me mold my trading style similar to his which is why I take an interest. Maybe you should take an interest in his postings instead of finding someone else's postings to complain about and mock.

Wow...You're slight bit confrontational wouldn't you think there kid. You keep that up and I'll never let you become an inner circle member of the VTP.

[DSteckler]

Webs, is an inner circle member anything like an innie bellybutton?

[mrmarket]

GNBT might have potential, but it's not for me. I don't like buying stocks until the companies are profitable.

[IIC]

Hey JC...welcome to the forum. Anyway, FWIW, I believe you will find not only a lot of good stock ideas here...But you are also going to run into a lot of humor. We are all different...So what might be funny to some may not be so to others.

And some people just want to be all biz...But I'll tell 'ya...If investing is not fun...I wouldn't bother...Obviously, it is more fun when I'm on a roll...But even when I'm losing it is still fun...When it stops being fun, then I'll go do something else...Just a suggestion...Best, Doug(IIC)

[New-born baby]

I had posted earlier about GNBT, and Dr Jack had given me his insight on the company's standing in the overall market right now, which was very helpful.

If Dr Jack or anyone else has any input or opinions on it I would appreciate it. I am writing a paper for a summer class on GNBT and need to get as many people's opinion as possible. I have already quoted Dr Jack in my paper.

I just checked the chart on GNBT. It is a bearish chart. The Point and Figure chart says GNBT may move all the way down to $0.00. I am not be mean; I am telling you what the computer generated chart says. IF I were to buy this stock, I would not want to own it IF the price moved below $1.65. That is the bottom support right now. IF I did buy this stock and it moved up, I'd put a trailing stop under it so that I would not lose my profit. In other words, you have a risky play in GNBT. Best wishes.

Here's the PnF:
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/2043/chart17od.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Here's the bearish daily:
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/8497/chart22sq.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Websman]

Hey JC...welcome to the forum. Anyway, FWIW, I believe you will find not only a lot of good stock ideas here...But you are also going to run into a lot of humor. We are all different...So what might be funny to some may not be so to others.

And some people just want to be all biz...But I'll tell 'ya...If investing is not fun...I wouldn't bother...Obviously, it is more fun when I'm on a roll...But even when I'm losing it is still fun...When it stops being fun, then I'll go do something else...Just a suggestion...Best, Doug(IIC)

Excellent advice there Dougy. Investing is a LOT of fun!

[jcohen918]

I'm sorry for jumping the gun and over reacting. I am trying to finish up my last summer class and start my career soon. I have been trading for a while, but finally will get to showcase my skills once I start for a hedge fund in september. I didn't mean to jump down everyone's throat, I was asking for ideas and opinions... whether its was from Dr Jack or not. I wanted everyone's input, not negativity. Apologies to all.

[Jack Haddad]

It is very evident now that Intel's price cuts are hurting AMD. Intel has priced its Pentium D and Celeron products below AMD's Athlon and Sempron. That said, vendors remain confident about a seasonal pick-up during the third-quarter due largely to Intel's new processor and platform launches, as well as price cuts.

Furthermore, Intel sold 14.7% of the world's microchips last year, according to Gartner, almost twice the share of No. 2 ranked Samsung Electronics and exponentially more than the 1.7% global share that AMD held. It will spend $5.6 billion on R&D this year, compared with $5.1 billion last year and $4.8 billion for 2004. AMD's R&D spending is expected to be around $1.1 billion this year, flat with last year and up from $934 million for 2004.

I understand the frustration that longs have experienced since January 17,2006 (When INTC surprised the street by dissapointing on both revenues an earnings without a prior warning). But, the stock is so unvervalued and cheap now that every dip is a buying opportunity.

[Jack Haddad]

I just checked the chart on GNBT. It is a bearish chart. The Point and Figure chart says GNBT may move all the way down to $0.00. I am not be mean; I am telling you what the computer generated chart says. IF I were to buy this stock, I would not want to own it IF the price moved below $1.65. That is the bottom support right now. IF I did buy this stock and it moved up, I'd put a trailing stop under it so that I would not lose my profit. In other words, you have a risky play in GNBT. Best wishes.

Here's the PnF:
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/2043/chart17od.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Here's the bearish daily:
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/8497/chart22sq.gif (http://imageshack.us)

I view today's upside as a chance to take out the 2.10 resistance. If 2.10 is taken out, the stock is in good shape to test the next resistance of 2.60. Thereafter, it looks like that gap on March 27, 2006 from 3.57 to 3.37 may fill and propel the stock higher. Shorterm is very critical...At 1.85, it appear that the stock closed on an inflection point. I would watch it very carefully tomorrow during the first 30min of trading.

[Jack Haddad]

I view today's upside as a chance to take out the 2.10 resistance. If 2.10 is taken out, the stock is in good shape to test the next resistance of 2.60. Thereafter, it looks like that gap on March 27, 2006 from 3.57 to 3.37 may fill and propel the stock higher. Shorterm is very critical...At 1.85, it appear that the stock closed on an inflection point. I would watch it very carefully tomorrow during the first 30min of trading.

In regards to the fundamentals, the book value per share comes to about .35 cents. Here is what I found troubling: their total cash per share is .24 versus a total debt/equity of .19 Theyre in too much debt; that coupled with a negative operating cash flow of -9.00 million is not a stock I would prefer to invest in.

It's also interesting to note the price differential between different institutions and top company holders. Mutual fund holders are: Reynolds Fund which bought 40,000 at .04 on 3/31/06. Apex MID-CAP Growth Fund has 2,000 at .00 3/31/06. Imagine if they decide to dump their shares?! But, their shares are nothing compared to Polygen Investment Partners LLP who own 534,085 at .60

It appears that the above positions were as recent as 3/31/06. Is something magic about that date? I don't think these institutions are likely to dump soon

[Rob]

. . . the stock [INTC] is so unvervalued and cheap now that every dip is a buying opportunity.Jack, the Jan. '08 $20 calls sold for as low as $1.80 yesterday and closed at $1.95. To me that sounds like a reasonably safe speculative buy. It's less than five weeks since INTC last closed above $20, and $20 is only 15.6 x earnings over the past 4 quarters. ... Thoughts?

http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/3121/intcchart5vg.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Jack Haddad]

Jack, the Jan. '08 $20 calls sold for as low as $1.80 yesterday and closed at $1.95. To me that sounds like a reasonably safe speculative buy. It's less than five weeks since INTC last closed above $20, and $20 is only 15.6 x earnings over the past 4 quarters. ... Thoughts?

http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/3121/intcchart5vg.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Rob, very interesting. However, I try to refrain from buying calls alone becuase of the decay in the time value, especially in the presence of the MM crooks. I only like buying calls when theyre deep in the money because they depreciate very little, and theyre easier to dollar coast average.

[Jack Haddad]

Sold open 400 July strike 30 calls at .45/contract. The selling is insane on this sector and I would like to maximize by taking advantage of the ride up. TOL is a likely merger or buying acquisition target.


Sold 4 blokcs at 27.48, and bought back the 400 July 40 calls at .70. All in all, my transaction on TOL resulted in a .50/contract x 400 gain on the calls, and .08 cents gain per share. Ot of TOL completely until further notice.

[jcohen918]

Thanks to everyone for giving me their input on GNBT. Appreciate it.

[jcohen918]

Thanks to everyone for giving me their input on GNBT. Appreciate it.

[Lyehopper]

I'm sorry for jumping the gun and over reacting. I am trying to finish up my last summer class and start my career soon.
Great!.... I'm looking for industrious farmhands. Does working outdoors, driving tractors, building fences, shooting coyotes and groundhogs and castrating bull calves sound appealing?.... If so, I have JUST THE JOB FOR YOU!

[hotty21]

"It's also interesting to note the price differential between different institutions and top company holders. Mutual fund holders are: Reynolds Fund which bought 40,000 at .04 on 3/31/06. Apex MID-CAP Growth Fund has 2,000 at .00 3/31/06. Imagine if they decide to dump their shares?! But, their shares are nothing compared to Polygen Investment Partners LLP who own 534,085 at .60



I apologize if I sound amateurish, but I checked the mutual fund holdings and it seems that Reynolds Fund bought 40,000 at a total cost 153,500 which comes to about $ 3.07 and not .04. Similarly the cost basis of all other buyers comes to about the same price $ 3.

Please feel free to comment, just my observation.

Great Board and Thanks to all !!

PS: I think that this is my first real post here.

[Jack Haddad]

I apologize if I sound amateurish, but I checked the mutual fund holdings and it seems that Reynolds Fund bought 40,000 at a total cost 153,500 which comes to about $ 3.07 and not .04. Similarly the cost basis of all other buyers comes to about the same price $ 3.

Please feel free to comment, just my observation.

Great Board and Thanks to all !!

PS: I think that this is my first real post here.

No problem. Here is a public link that confirms the numbers I stated. My proprietary system (which I wish I could provide) also confirms the very exact dates and figures.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=GNBT

[hotty21]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=GNBT

Jack:

Thats the link I used in the first place. Let me understand from the example:

Holder: POLYGON INVESTMENT PARTNERS LLP
Shares: 534,085
% Out .60
Value* Reported: $1,639,640
Date: 31-Mar-06

I see that you are using the 0.6 as $ value (which is % Out- I am not even sure what that means) and I am using the $ value by dividing the Value Reported by # of shares.

[IIC]

No problem. Here is a public link that confirms the numbers I stated. My proprietary system (which I wish I could provide) also confirms the very exact dates and figures.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=GNBT

C'mon Doc...Let us in on your Proprietary System...I won't tell anybody..Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

C'mon Doc...Let us in on your Proprietary System...I won't tell anybody..Doug(IIC)
The GoJi is made with a proprietary system DEF.... Bet you didn't know that did ya?

[IIC]

The GoJi is made with a proprietary system DEF.... Bet you didn't know that did ya?

I'm tired of gettin' the runaround on the Goji and VTP...If you guys want the world to know...Then all you gotta do is tell me...I've got 251,031 on my email list...IIC

[Lyehopper]

I'm tired of gettin' the runaround on the Goji and VTP...If you guys want the world to know...Then all you gotta do is tell me...I've got 251,031 on my email list...IIC
Sorry Doug-E-Fresh.... both are very top secret..... AND.... proprietary.

[IIC]

Sorry Doug-E-Fresh.... both are very top secret..... AND.... proprietary.

That's nice...But who the h*ll is ever gonna pay to subscribe to a site that Says..."STAY TUNED" for over 6 months???

What you really need is a Great Domain name.

And I just happen to own quite a few domain names.

My suggestion is that You and Webs make an offer on this one:

Breakouts.com

Min. Bid is $500k...But since you are a good guy...I'll sell it to you this weekend at a 10% discount...Email me for my Paypal username ...I see $450k in my account... It's your's.

Check the registry...It is a GREAT name...Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

That's nice...But who the h*ll is ever gonna pay to subscribe to a site that Says..."STAY TUNED" for over 6 months???

What you really need is a Great Domain name.

And I just happen to own quite a few domain names.

My suggestion is that You and Webs make an offer on this one:

Breakouts.com

Min. Bid is $500k...But since you are a good guy...I'll sell it to you this weekend at a 10% discount...Email me for my Paypal username ...I see $450k in my account... It's your's.
Check the registry...It is a GREAT name...Doug(IIC)
Well.... we just don't want to rush anything here Doug.

Now I would buy breakdance.com but breakout.com? I don't know?

btw.... I own Lyehopper.com but it ain't for sale.

[IIC]

Well.... we just don't want to rush anything here Doug.

Now I would buy breakdance.com but breakout.com? I don't know?

btw.... I own Lyehopper.com but it ain't for sale.

So I see you own it till 2015...Seems like a waste of $$$ to me...;)

BTW...It is Breakouts(plural)...Nobody wants just one b/o

[Jack Haddad]

Jack:

Thats the link I used in the first place. Let me understand from the example:

Holder: POLYGON INVESTMENT PARTNERS LLP
Shares: 534,085
% Out .60
Value* Reported: $1,639,640
Date: 31-Mar-06

I see that you are using the 0.6 as $ value (which is % Out- I am not even sure what that means) and I am using the $ value by dividing the Value Reported by # of shares.

The % out can be misleading...More often than not, it's used as a form of derivative hedge as the fund sees fit. Don't pay attention to it. Go by the 60 cents as a dollar value for shares acquired.

[Jack Haddad]

This post will attempt to refute the unwarranted downgrade by Friedman, Billings Ramsey & Co. analyst Jim Reddoch, following the late-stage clinical trial results of Erbitux that were released on June 6, 2006.

Both Fridman, Billings Ramsey & Co and Citigroup cited the following concerns as justification for downgrade:

1.Though the response rate for the drug in combination with chemotherapy hit 52 percent versus 38 percent for patients treated with chemotherapy alone, survival rates did not significantly differ between the two groups.

2. The data calls into question Erbitux's long-term value and could diminish the likelihood of an acquisition with a significant premium.

3. Competition is now a factor in regards Genentech's Avastin, which would not be able to replace in front-line treatment, except under certain circumstances.

In addressing the analysts' concern regarding the insignificant survival rates between the two groups in the study, It's important to note that the study involved 238 people, though it was originally meant to enroll 2,200. results were obtained from a cancer and leukemia Group B randomized clinical trial (CALGB-80203) of ERBITUX in the treatment of patients with previously untreated metastatic colorectal cancer.

The number of subjects tested is considered a small population and is well below the average of 560-- which the majority of phase 3 clinical trials enroll. Because enrollment was closed at 238 patients, the results represented only 11% of the intended power to account for an evolving standard of care. Simply stated, the survival and progression free survival endpoints were not sufficiently powered to reach statistical significance. Therefore, it very clear that the powering of the trial was inadequate to draw firm conclusions. That said, analysts from both firms were wrong in advising clients that results from this study could foreshadow other similar studies on Erbitux in combination with other treatments. This assumption is not only un-scientific, but also without constructive criticism. Allen Venook, M.D., Professor, Clinical Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, was the principle investigator in the study.

As to ERBITUX's long-term value being in question, the documentation of trials on the drug's efficacy puts this matter to rest. In the most recent study, Markus Borner, M.D., of the Institute of Medical Oncology, Inselspital, Berne, Switzerland, presented preliminary results from a Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research randomized Phase II study of capecitabine and oxaliplatin with or without ERBITUX as first line treatment of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. Objective response rate was the primary endpoint of the study. A total of 74 patients were recruited for the study and evaluable for preliminary response after follow up for at least nine weeks. Following a median of four treatment cycles, response rates were 43% (21/44) in the chemotherapy alone arm and 61% (23/44) in the combination ERBITUX and chemotherapy arm. The rate of disease control was 76% and 87% in the chemotherapy and chemotherapy plus ERBITUX arms, respectively.

On a different note, ERBITUX have pushed the stock's value up 25 percent over the last 8 weeks. I continue to think that Imclone has an underappreciated cancer pipeline. The company is also in the midst of several other developments, working on drugs targeting cancer ranging from pancreatic to ovarian. This asset is not fully appreciated by many investors, in my view, and I continue to believe that the Street is overly pessimistic on the potential for Imclone to be acquired. I expect peak sales of Erbitux in the U.S. to top $1 billion. The company is also in the midst of several other developments, working on drugs targeting cancer ranging from pancreatic to ovarian.

[Jack Haddad]

Dr. Sumit Dhanda of Bank of America Securities held conversations with multiple clients in regards to Intel. He maintains a "buy" rating of 25 on the stock, as Intel's new chip producsts scheduled for release in the third quarter takes back market share loss from rival AMD.

Dr. Dhanda expects intel's current inventory to be completely flushed by the end of the third quarter, as the launch of new desktop processors (Conroe, Merom, and Woodcrest) hit the market.

Furthermore Dr. Dhanda's conversations with a large AMD chipset supplier suggest that sales for AMD chipsets in the second quarter are tracking to a roughly 15% sequential decline.
Conversations with several server players (including Tyan, Inventec and other channel contacts), corroborate his view that Intel has made significant improvements in its next generation server solution (Woodcrest).

[Jack Haddad]

According to Wells Capital Management; Factset; Thomson Financial/Baseline, the following list of large caps are resonably priced based on their P/E rations and median price.

Ticker Price Chg* Current Median**
ExxonMobil XOM $58.82 2.4% 9.6 15.7
General Electric GE 34.40 –6.6 16.9 19.3
Citigroup C 49.95 4.8 11.4 12.1
Microsoft MSFT 22.04 –13.6 16.6 23.1
Bank of America BAC 48.85 6.5 10.7 11.4
Wal-Mart WMT 47.04 –1.5 15.6 25.2
J&J JNJ 61.17 –8.1 16.2 19.6
Procter & Gamble PG 53.24 –4.0 18.6 21.9
Pfizer PFE 23.91 –14.5 11.9 17.3
AIG AIG 60.23 9.1 10.6 15.7
Altria Group MO 70.95 4.7 13.3 11.3
JP Morgan Chase JPM 42.25 19.1 11.9 12.2
Chevron CVX 57.17 4.4 7.4 11.7
Cisco Systems CSCO 19.91 2.6 17.5 24.4
IBM IBM 79.15 5.5 13.4 18.1
Google GOOG 386.51 31.9 38.7 52.2
Wells Fargo WFC 68.23 11.2 13.3 13.9
AT&T T 26.59 13.4 12.7 15.5
Intel INTC 17.39 –35.3 18.5 25.2
Coca-Cola KO 43.38 –1.7 18.6 23.5
ConocoPhillips COP 60.52 10.8 6.4 8.9
PepsiCo PEP 60.30 7.9 20.0 21.6
Verizon VZ 31.84 –9.1 12.1 13.8
Wachovia WB 54.44 8.4 11.3 12.4

[spikefader]

pm June 1; As to technicals, a rapid drop to 16 from the current levels is not indicated. The technicals I'm lookin' at indicate it jejejeOnly about a buck to go until that burnt toast area doc jejeje
http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/3193/intcjune119hs.gif
2 days ago;..INTC surprised the street by dissapointing on both revenues an earnings without a prior warning..But, the stock is so unvervalued and cheap now that every dip is a buying opportunity.For a scalp maybe lol. Long is wrong for swing trades or investments, doc. The bias is clearly down. Please post the technicals, if any, that you rely on for INTC.
Dr. Sumit Dhanda of Bank of America Securities held conversations with multiple clients in regards to Intel. He maintains a "buy" rating of 25 on the stock....
Regarding Dr. Sumit Dhanda's maintaining his buy rating, I'm sure he is lol. The fact that they disappointed and it's sold hard, catching many unawares.....and now your recent posts that try to talk it up in the face of a broken chart make me wonder. Being bullish on this stock right now is absolutely wrong, and I hope anyone reading Jack's thread considers the chart at a deeper level. Now is no time to be "hoping". For long from $25.00 is red hope dude. And that ain't what traders or investors should let happen. But either way, doc, best of luck with your bias.
Like I said earlier, a daily close under $16.00 give it Burnt Toast qualities....and a weekly close under $16.70 and there is very high probability that it's toast to $10.00, and any strength should be sold into at resistance. What it needs is a flush down to 16.00 and massive buying on volume from that point. Then I might reconsider my bias. Until that happens, INTC bear suit is firmly zipped up, and I caution longs. Best to ya.

[Lyehopper]

Spike, speakin' of "old gaps".... There's a gap in INTC's chart @ $11.17 from 9/16/96 and one @ $9.63 from 8/1/96.... SsSsSsSsSssssss!

[DSteckler]

<< "If you can walk, you can dance. If you can talk, you can sing" Zimbabwean proverb >>

And here I thought you were quoting a verse from Safety Dance....<BG>

[Jack Haddad]

Only about a buck to go until that burnt toast area doc jejeje
http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/3193/intcjune119hs.gif
For a scalp maybe lol. Long is wrong for swing trades or investments, doc. The bias is clearly down. Please post the technicals, if any, that you rely on for INTC.

Regarding Dr. Sumit Dhanda's maintaining his buy rating, I'm sure he is lol. The fact that they disappointed and it's sold hard, catching many unawares.....and now your recent posts that try to talk it up in the face of a broken chart make me wonder. Being bullish on this stock right now is absolutely wrong, and I hope anyone reading Jack's thread considers the chart at a deeper level. Now is no time to be "hoping". For long from $25.00 is red hope dude. And that ain't what traders or investors should let happen. But either way, doc, best of luck with your bias.
Like I said earlier, a daily close under $16.00 give it Burnt Toast qualities....and a weekly close under $16.70 and there is very high probability that it's toast to $10.00, and any strength should be sold into at resistance. What it needs is a flush down to 16.00 and massive buying on volume from that point. Then I might reconsider my bias. Until that happens, INTC bear suit is firmly zipped up, and I caution longs. Best to ya.

You sell your shares and I'll keep buying them.

[Jack Haddad]

In its 38 years of operations, Intel fought of many threats. In 1991, IBM, Mototola, and Apple formed the "PowerPC" alliance to create chips that will challenge Intel's and Microsoft's. Intel responded with chips that adopted some of the alliance's technical ideas. In 1997, Intel rival Cyrix created chips that enabled computer maker Compaq to pioneer the cheaper 1, 000 dollar PC. Intel responded with a low-cost Celeron chips. In 2000, Transmata announced a lower-power laptop microprocessor that emphasized longer battery life over performance. Intel repsonded with its Centrino campaign that combined laptop microprocessors and wireless internet. In 2003, AMD undermined Intel's Itanium chips by launching low-power Opteron chipsthat balanced speed, power consumption, and efficiency. Intel responded to the Opteron with power-efficient microprocessors (Merom, Conroe, and Woodcrest) due in June 26, 2006, August 2006, and September 2006, respectively.

[Jack Haddad]

This is a classic example of how Intel responds when it is cornered or is under a level of danger. Their Woodcrest chip server is shceduled to be released on June 26, 2006, 3 months ahead of newly revised time.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060609/intel_chip_plans.html?.v=3

[Jack Haddad]

Fred Cooper, Toll's senior vice president of finance , said that controlling land is key to Tol's growth. He told analysts and shareholders last thursday at an annual conference that the company's approach is to first put land under option with a relatively small deposit and take it through an often times lengthy and complex approval process for building. Then Toll buys it and takes title. About 51% of the 91, 000 lots controlled by Toll are optioned and the rest are owned. Toll plans to grow the number of its selling communities to 295 at the end of fiscal 2006, up from 230 the previous year.

During the annual event, Toll said that the company plans to continue to grow the number of its selling communities and buy back more shares. So far this quarter, Toll has repurchased about 1.65 million shares through the close of last Wednesday. And about a quarter of the firm's shares are held by insiders.

[IIC]

IMO...Anyone who listens to Dhanda is in Deep Chip(sic)

[spikefader]

Spike, speakin' of "old gaps".... There's a gap in INTC's chart @ $11.17 from 9/16/96 and one @ $9.63 from 8/1/96.... SsSsSsSsSssssss!
hehe You be right dude. Hey you wanna see something real interesting?! Check this out from 1972. Yup; yer eyes don't deceive ya hehehe
http://img112.imageshack.us/img112/2493/intcgaphistory1yb.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

<< "If you can walk, you can dance. If you can talk, you can sing" Zimbabwean proverb >>

And here I thought you were quoting a verse from Safety Dance....<BG>I can't get that song outa my head now dude. hehe Thanks a million.

[spikefader]

You sell your shares and I'll keep buying them.When's the wedding dude? jejeje
It is what it is until it isn't as far as the technicals. And looking at both AMD and INTC charts it's a no-brainer that AMD has the stronger chart. And look when I do the AMD:INTC ratio charts. Clearly bullish folks. And the flip side of the equation (INTC:AMD) is hardly inspiring.
http://img116.imageshack.us/img116/6933/amdtointcjune122ga.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Jack Haddad]

According to Bank Credit Analyst (a research firm based in Montreal), major declines in emerging markets involving foreign stocks since 1990 have lasted 45.6 weeks and were brought down by 34% from the peak. Last month, funds investing in foreign stocks sustained record outflows of 2.2 billion, according to AMG Data Services. Hedge funds in the US that invest in emerging markets have reported an average of 14% decline in returns for the month of May. Morgan Stanley Capital Index, a widely followed emerging markets index, fell by 15% in the last 4 weeks. If the research data base by Bank Credit Analyst holds any merit, shares in emerging markets could easily plunge an additional 25% over the next 3 to 4 months.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 2 blocks at 17.16

[Rob]

Bought 2 blocks at 17.16You wrote no calls this time?

[jcohen918]

Bought Intel at 17.10 this morning,

[jcohen918]

I have kept an eye on PTN for quite some time now. They are in the final stages of hopefully an approval for a drug that is a female viagra. Decent revenues, but the bottom line is nothing to brag about.. but any small biotech spends alot on R&D etc to get the product moving... etc. Any opinions?

[Rob]

Dude, I am female Viagra! ;) ;) ;) heh heh (Now come on, guys, before you start trashing me, ask yourselves: Do you think he was joking?)

[Jack Haddad]

You wrote no calls this time?
No calls, Rob. I may later.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 2 blocks at 17.16

Sold 2 blocks at 17.20

[Rob]

INTC so far today seems to be defying gravity. Interesting.

1st edit (3:06): Of course, no sooner do I get through saying that that it's "bombs away!!!"

2nd edit (3:35): And then, as soon as I wrote that 1st edit she takes off again. That's why I don't day trade. http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/7310/cramersmiley4hc.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Jack Haddad]

INTC so far today seems to be defying gravity. Interesting.

1st edit (3:06): Of course, no sooner do I get through saying that that it's "bombs away!!!"

2nd edit (3:35): And then, as soon as I wrote that 1st edit she takes off again. That's why I don't day trade. http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/7310/cramersmiley4hc.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Yes, Rob. Did you notice today's huge volume versus yesterday's anemic one? I didn't think much of yesterday's .40 sell-off on low volume. However, today's upside on heavy volume without any appearant news is something to cheer for.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 2 blocks at 17.16

Sold 2 blocks at 17.67

[Jack Haddad]

Folks, sell into this rally. There will an intraday pullbackinto the negative as we approach 11:15amtoday.

[Jack Haddad]

Folks, sell into this rally. There will an intraday pullbackinto the negative as we approach 11:15amtoday.


Besides today's upgrade of INTC, AMD and the general seconductor sector by Goldman is very impersonal. I'm selling

[Rob]

Folks, sell into this rally. There will an intraday pullbackinto the negative as we approach 11:15amtoday.http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/3665/172735127qt.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Party Pooper!

[Jack Haddad]

http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/3665/172735127qt.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Party Pooper!

Thank you, Rob. I love illustrations to help season my otherwise boring posts.:)

[Jack Haddad]

AAPL is fast approaching scalp territory, folks. Keep an eye on it.

[Jack Haddad]

Folks, sell into this rally. There will an intraday pullbackinto the negative as we approach 11:15amtoday.


This is "irrational exuberane at best! The market is bouncing higher in early trading in the wake of higher inflation numbers that almost guarantees another Federal Reserve interest rate increase.

[Jack Haddad]

Shorted 1 block of INTC at 17.74

[alice4321us]

Shorted 1 block of INTC at 17.74

I expect this to close near the Low of the Day. What are your thoughts Jack?

[Jack Haddad]

Shorted 1 block of INTC at 17.74

Covered 1 block at 17.64

[Jack Haddad]

Shorted 2 blocks at 17.74

[Jack Haddad]

Shorted 2 blocks at 17.74

Covered at 17.64

[Jack Haddad]

Shorted 2 blocks at 17.74

[Jack Haddad]

I expect this to close near the Low of the Day. What are your thoughts Jack?
Alice, I was particularly happy that it closed above the dialy resistance of 17.70. Had it closed below the daily opening of 17.57, I would have worried.

[Jack Haddad]

Today's strength (TOL) is challenging the monthly resistance of 26.90 to
27.10. Though outer bar reversals are quite evident, the stock is
severely oversold on a technical basis ad undervalued fundamentally. The entire sector trades at a discount of 7 times 2006 earnings. The trim im estimates for the remainder of the year has laready been factored in in the share price. The stock is down a staggering 60% from the 52 week high of 57.50. Moreover, TOL's cloe alliance with many Joint Venture Capital Firms is aiding them in buying and elling land very quickly to flip profits for the company

[DSteckler]

Shorted 2 blocks at 17.74

Still short? A close above the 20-day EMA could signify a change in short-term trend direction.

[Jack Haddad]

Still short? A close above the 20-day EMA could signify a change in short-term trend direction.

Dave, I'm still short. I just don't trust the stock too much yet. Besides, those two short blocks, at worse, will hedge my long blocks.

[DSteckler]

You're also long? I thought you were short only right now?

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 3 blocks at 31.57, and wrote 300 calls at 2.00

Bought back 300 June 30.00 calls at .40 and wrote the July 30.00 for 1.65

[Jack Haddad]

You're also long? I thought you were short only right now?

I have been holding a long core way before I came to this board.

[DSteckler]

I have been holding a long core way before I came to this board.

Priapism, eh?

<VBG>

[Jack Haddad]

I and many of my fellow colleague managers are advising clients to sell this rally. Technicals at this time remain uncertain due to very oversold conditions. The downtrend on the Dow which began as a result of Dow breaching 10078 is till intact. I'm not regarding today's upside as a reversal in the trend. I'll be looking for short set-ups on particular picks (BA), and also some very undervalued stock which have not moved much in the last couple of days (EBAY).

[Jack Haddad]

Yesterday, the company bought 560k shares betwen 17.33 to 17.50 pre-trading hours; that explains the heavy volume of 111 million. I'm not thrilled about INTC's behavior to support a bullish trend. Today's upside is particularly questionable on below average volume.

[Websman]

I and many of my fellow colleague managers are advising clients to sell this rally. Technicals at this time remain uncertain due to very oversold conditions. The downtrend on the Dow which began as a result of Dow breaching 10078 is till intact. I'm not regarding today's upside as a reversal in the trend. I'll be looking for short set-ups on particular picks (BA), and also some very undervalued stock which have not moved much in the last couple of days (EBAY).

I must agree with you Jack. Two up days do not make a rally.

[Jack Haddad]

I must agree with you Jack. Two up days do not make a rally.

I agree...

[Jack Haddad]

ADBE lower estimes or 2006 profit and revenue on weaker demand for its content-creation products. The stock is a strong sell fundamentally and will retest lower lows and breach the 52 week. It's unfortunate that one cannot short in after-hours trading.

[Jack Haddad]

I remain convinced that were in a bear market rally. I estimate that the Dow at 11,000 is a major wall of resistance, and the S&P 500 would be 1240-1255. Also, financial stocks are in a major trouble. Take a look at the 3-month chart of C, BAC, PNC, WB, JPM, STI, and CBH. Theyre a screaming sell. And, of ourse, do not forget about emerging markets-- The sell-off ain't over yet.

[df21084]

Based on most recent regulatory filings, industrila companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 with the most cash, in billions, are the following:

1. Exxon Mobile 36.5
2. Microsoft 34.8
3. Johnson & Johnson 17.2
4. Pfizer 15.5
5. Cisco Systems 15.0
6. Motorola 14.6
7. Aetna 14.4
8. Merck 12.4
9. IBM 12.3
10. Hewlett Packard 11.9

Is this a good thing, or is this a bad thing? Should one expect companies with lots of cash to buy back shares and/or increase dividends, which I think is a good thing, or are they sitting on boat-loads of cash because there's no potential for a better ROI than a money market account?

I would appreciate any and all responses.

[DSteckler]

Is this a good thing, or is this a bad thing? Should one expect companies with lots of cash to buy back shares and/or increase dividends, which I think is a good thing, or are they sitting on boat-loads of cash because there's no potential for a better ROI than a money market account?

I would appreciate any and all responses.

Companies sitting on a boatload of cash rarely go out of business. OTOH, a stock is only useful to a shareholder under on of two conditions: 1) it goes up in price and/or, 2) it pays a dividend greater than money market's yield.

Just because a company is loaded with cash doesn't necessarily do any good for the shareholder if the price per share doesn't go up and/or they don't pay a dividend.

[Rob]

That's true, Dave. My thought, though, was that if the coffers of the world's biggest companies are bulging with cash, this is eventually going to be a boon to the technology sector, as a tidal wave of tech upgrades sweeps over the horizon. The question is: how soon?

[DSteckler]

That's true, Dave. My thought, though, was that if the coffers of the world's biggest companies are bulging with cash, this is eventually going to be a boon to the technology sector, as a tidal wave of tech upgrades sweeps over the horizon. The question is: how soon?

MSFT was "forced" into declaring a dividend because they were sitting on a load of cash and institutional shareholders were clamoring for them to do something with it.

[Rob]

MSFT was "forced" into declaring a dividend because they were sitting on a load of cash and institutional shareholders were clamoring for them to do something with it.I remember that. I think I may have been holding some MSFT shares at the time; either that or I had just recently bailed. If I remember correctly, at the time they had about $40 billion in cash. It was a few years ago.

[df21084]

Companies sitting on a boatload of cash rarely go out of business. OTOH, a stock is only useful to a shareholder under on of two conditions: 1) it goes up in price and/or, 2) it pays a dividend greater than money market's yield.

Just because a company is loaded with cash doesn't necessarily do any good for the shareholder if the price per share doesn't go up and/or they don't pay a dividend.

Right. A company isn't forced to take any action regarding its cash position. Warren Buffett is sitting of gobs of cash, but BRK doesn't pay a dividend. I suppose that I'm curious as to what Dr. Jack's post was implying, if anything.

I'm glad that Dr. Jack posts on this site. I'm just not sure what, if anything, I should do with the information. (I'm just trying to learn, so I hope nobody misinterprets my posts.)

[Jack Haddad]

Bought back 500 calls at .80/contract and wrote 500 June 57.50 at 3.40/contract. Testing the 59.25 os last week's low is imminent!

Bought back 500 June 57.50 calls at .45/contract, and wrote 500 july 55.00 calls at 5.00

[Jack Haddad]

Wrote 100 June 30.00 calls at 1.55/contract to hedge against my shares which I nought earlier at 30.61

Bought back 100 June 30.00 calls at .05 and wrote 100 July 27.50 calls at .95/contract

[Jack Haddad]

Purchased 2 blocks at 33.12, and wrote 200 June 32.50 calls at 1.45

Bought back 200 June 32.50 calls at .05 and wrote 200 July 32.50 at .80/contract.

[Jack Haddad]

Decided to go with HOV instead. Snatched 3 blocks at 32.90 and wrote 300 June 30 calls for 3.40 in hope that my shares will get called away. I'll take
.50/contract for a return.

Bought back 300 June 30.00 calls at .05, and wrote the July 25.00 at 4.60

[Jack Haddad]

It has indeed retreated from the 70.55, habitually. The US incentives and open talks with Iran is not good for high oil prices. But, I bought 1 block at 66.21 and wrote 100 June 65.00 at 2.40/contract.

Bought back 100 June 65.00 calls at .05 and wrote the July 60.00 at 6.30

[Jack Haddad]

Since June 2003, Oracle has purchased close to 20 software companies ( PeopleSoft, Oblix, Retek, TripleHop, Times Ten, ProfitLogic, Context Media, i-flex, G-Log, Innobase, Thor Technologies, OctetString, TempoSoft, 360Commerce, Seibel Systems, SleepyCat, HotSip, Portal Software, and Demantra). Also, since 2003, Oracle has increased from 9.50 billion to 14 billion in revenues in sales for the year ending in May 2006; that said, this begs the question: has this growth increase been the result of merger acquisitions or true organic growth?!

Comments/opinions?

[Jack Haddad]

The book-to-bill ratio in regard to chip-tool orders reported in May was 1.12, suggesting that the market is expanding. Anything above 1.0 is highly regarded. This marks the 4th consecutive month where the ratio stood above 1.0 This simply means that chip-tool companies received $112 in orders for every $100 in sales. The San Jose Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International Group said that orders rose 3% to 1.65 billion in May from a revised 1.6 billion in April.

[Jack Haddad]

Less than six years after the worst bear market in many investors' memories, people were eagerly dabbling in some of the world's riskiest markets (India, China, South America) in a craze fueled by hopes of recouping money lost when the technology bubble burst. Many of those sufferers are now in double-digit losses. Let's learn a leson all over again.

[Jack Haddad]

The close on last Friday of 18.32 closed above the 20EMA channel-- which is quite important. Far more critical, is the breach of the 18.36 resistance made on May 19, 2006. If we breach through that level, then 18.75 shall be the next wall. On 6/13 and 6/14, the high volume was impressive, and we need continued interest in the stock to keep the volume up. It will be very intereting as we approach the July 19 earnings announcement; It appears that were currently experiencing is an "earning-run-up" type of upside.

According to my check, Intel should warn for the second quarter announcement. However, a lot of that may have already been baked in the stock price.

[Jack Haddad]

According to Robbie Bach, manager of the Xbox video game business, Microsoft is developing a music and video device to compete with Apples iPod and creating its own music service to rival Apples iTunes.

[Jack Haddad]

Although Covello's upgrade by Goldman Sachs on INTC seems impersonal as a result of a broad semiconductor upgrade, Im adamant of the belief that INTCs current share price of 18.30 has baked all the bad news (including a potential warning call for the second quarter earnings). The stock trades at a discount 15 times 2007 earnings, and has plenty of liquid cash to help it survive the slump that it has endured since January of 2006. Because the downside potential is very limited, I would recommend an accumulate with a dollor-cost-averaging fashion hedged by covered call options.

Moreover, the slew of new chips due this summer (Woodcrest, Conroe)have both received great reviews from industry analysts; that said, market share loss to AMD should at the very least be halted or reversed.

[IIC]

According to Robbie Bach, manager of the Xbox video game business, Microsoft is developing a music and video device to compete with Apples iPod and creating its own music service to rival Apples iTunes.


That's what they say:

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=31&art_id=qw1150665665852B253

But as I recall MSFT's last venture into that arena about 2 years ago was somewhat of a disaster...Doug(IIC)

[Jack Haddad]

That's what they say:

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=31&art_id=qw1150665665852B253

But as I recall MSFT's last venture into that arena about 2 years ago was somewhat of a disaster...Doug(IIC)

Theyre calling this one the "killer Ipod."

[Jack Haddad]

An analyst from UBS by the name Tom Thornhill makes the case for INTC, Thornhill, argueing that the compnay has improved its competitive position versus Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and seems poised to show improving gross margins and operating margins for 2008.

While I agree with INTC's competitive improvement against AMD from the stance point of releasing new and better performing chips, I'm not finding any evidence yet of improving gross margins and operating costs. At times, it's beyong me how someone can make such a judgment call without proof of any balance sheet documentary.


Mr. Thornhill also states that INTC is accelerating year-over-year processor unit growth trends (I agree), sustaining growth with less volatility (strongly disagree).

Folks, I understand that INTC has lost nearly 7 points from the January 18, 2006 folloowing the release of their 4th quarter; that said, I totally concur that the stock is oversold. However, one must take into account several items: 1) The company has reduced their revenues by nearly 2 billion from the record 10.5 billion. Furthermore, aggressively trimming down prices on their Pantium D and Celeron chips in access of 60% is not going to help their revenues and gross margins, 2) exceptance of their new chips of Woodcrest, Conroe, and Merom is yet to be demonstrated by the consumer at large, and 3) market share loss to AMD still is a lingering issue.

All in all, this recent run-up in the last 4 days should be taken advantage of. As far as I'm concerned, it's merely a run-up in anticipation of earnings. It's very possible that we see a sell-off two weeks before earnings, either due to profit taking or a very likely warning on reduced 2nd quarter estimates.

[DSteckler]

Theyre calling this one the "killer Ipod."

They can call it anything they want...but that doesn't make it so.

[IIC]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Haddad
Theyre calling this one the "killer Ipod."


They can call it anything they want...but that doesn't make it so.

Yeah...I call my watchlists "IIC's Killer Watchlists"...make a killing or get killed...LOL

[Jack Haddad]

Prospective research conducted by Hitwise reveals that Yahoo! Finance is the most popular personal finance Web site in the U.S. with 34.9 percent share of the market. The next most popular personal finance Web site was MSN MoneyCentral with a 13.67 percent share, followed by CNN Money with a 4.50 percent share. By comparison, Google Finance ranked number 38, capturing only 0.28 percent of all visits to major financial sites.

[IIC]

Prospective research conducted by Hitwise reveals that Yahoo! Finance is the most popular personal finance Web site in the U.S. with 34.9 percent share of the market. The next most popular personal finance Web site was MSN MoneyCentral with a 13.67 percent share, followed by CNN Money with a 4.50 percent share. By comparison, Google Finance ranked number 38, capturing only 0.28 percent of all visits to major financial sites.


Google's Finance stuff is a little weak at this point. But as another related side note... Alexa.com which rates the traffic at 16.6 million plus websites shows the following rankings(Not for the Finance sections)

Here are the Top 500 in the World:

http://www.alexa.com/site/ds/top_500

Here are the Top 100 in the US(visits from US users)

http://www.alexa.com/site/ds/top_sites?cc=US&ts_mode=country&lang=none

This Forum is in the Top 4.3%
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/main?q=mrmarketishuge.com&url=mrmarketishuge.com

[DSteckler]

Prospective research conducted by Hitwise reveals that Yahoo! Finance is the most popular personal finance Web site in the U.S. with 34.9 percent share of the market. The next most popular personal finance Web site was MSN MoneyCentral with a 13.67 percent share, followed by CNN Money with a 4.50 percent share. By comparison, Google Finance ranked number 38, capturing only 0.28 percent of all visits to major financial sites.

I think Clearstation is excellent:

http://clearstation.etrade.com/

[Jack Haddad]

I think Clearstation is excellent:

http://clearstation.etrade.com/

Yea, that it is one of my favorites. I also like the layout on CCNmoney.com

[Jack Haddad]

The month of May has rendered steep losses for gold and silver. It was only in the first week of May that gold hit a 27-year high of 730/ounce. How could such a slump ensue?
Moreover, Price Water Coopers, a global professional services firm, just published an analysis of the world's 40 largest mining companies (ABX, NEM, FCX) which revealed several bearish signs for gold mining companies that are in the brewing. Equally surprising to most industry analysts is that Gold's technicals are a "buy".

The study by the organization mentioned above cited the following:

1) Massive capital spending by miners-- which is worrisome because extra spending results in increased production. In 2005, capital expidenture grew 31% to 31 billion. According to New York- based Commodity-Consulting Company, 63 million of gold was produced in 2005.

2) Increases in unit costs and concern over increased volatility-- which is factual evidence that companies are mining in regions that would not have been profitable at lower metal prices. This will result in additional supply and inventory pile-up that could crush gold prices.

But, from a technical perspective point of view, Gold is in a classic buying area, as it’s recent sharp decline having halted exactly at its 200-day moving average and in a zone of strong support. What is believed to have happened in the last couple of weeks is that, after a steep decline, we witnessed a classic example of “capitulation” where weak hands lose their nerve and throw in the towel.

In examining the 1-year chart, one can point very at the capitulation in the last 3 to 4 weeks followed by 2 days of stabelized prices. Gold has reacted back to its 200-day moving average, and it is way below its 50-day moving average, deeply oversold and is currently just above a zone of strong support. It should be pointed out, however, that it is not likely to go straight back up from here. The vicious plunge last week took its toll on sentiment and so gold is likely to thrash around for a while forming a base area, probably between about $540 and $590, which may continue for some weeks or even a month or two, which will will allow the 50-day moving average to drop down towards the 200-day. Any retreat towards $550 short-term will be regarded as a major buying opportunity, which will have the advantage that a fairly close stop can be employed to limit downside.

Gold's recent parabolic advance looks decidedly tame compared to the late spike of the 70s. Barron's stated that fact as well in their May 22nd edition of 2006. When you take inflation into factorization to equal the 1980 peak of 850 in real terms, gold would have to rise to 2500/ounce. At its recent peak, it was only about 220/ounce above its 1983 and 1987 highs. That said, breaching above the 1983 and 1987 peaks was a major technical support event. Should gold drift lower in the near future, it could be expected to provide even stronger support.

[lemonjello]

That's some good analysis you did there doc.

The month of May has rendered steep losses for gold and silver. It was only in the first week of May that gold hit a 27-year high of 730/ounce. How could such a slump ensue?
Moreover, Price Water Coopers, a global professional services firm, just published an analysis of the world's 40 largest mining companies (ABX, NEM, FCX) which revealed several bearish signs for gold mining companies that are in the brewing. Equally surprising to most industry analysts is that Gold's technicals are a "buy".

The study by the organization mentioned above cited the following:

1) Massive capital spending by miners-- which is worrisome because extra spending results in increased production. In 2005, capital expidenture grew 31% to 31 billion. According to New York- based Commodity-Consulting Company, 63 million of gold was produced in 2005.

2) Increases in unit costs and concern over increased volatility-- which is factual evidence that companies are mining in regions that would not have been profitable at lower metal prices. This will result in additional supply and inventory pile-up that could crush gold prices.

But, from a technical perspective point of view, Gold is in a classic buying area, as it’s recent sharp decline having halted exactly at its 200-day moving average and in a zone of strong support. What is believed to have happened in the last couple of weeks is that, after a steep decline, we witnessed a classic example of “capitulation” where weak hands lose their nerve and throw in the towel.

In examining the 1-year chart, one can point very at the capitulation in the last 3 to 4 weeks followed by 2 days of stabelized prices. Gold has reacted back to its 200-day moving average, and it is way below its 50-day moving average, deeply oversold and is currently just above a zone of strong support. It should be pointed out, however, that it is not likely to go straight back up from here. The vicious plunge last week took its toll on sentiment and so gold is likely to thrash around for a while forming a base area, probably between about $540 and $590, which may continue for some weeks or even a month or two, which will will allow the 50-day moving average to drop down towards the 200-day. Any retreat towards $550 short-term will be regarded as a major buying opportunity, which will have the advantage that a fairly close stop can be employed to limit downside.

Gold's recent parabolic advance looks decidedly tame compared to the late spike of the 70s. Barron's stated that fact as well in their May 22nd edition of 2006. When you take inflation into factorization to equal the 1980 peak of 850 in real terms, gold would have to rise to 2500/ounce. At its recent peak, it was only about 220/ounce above its 1983 and 1987 highs. That said, breaching above the 1983 and 1987 peaks was a major technical support event. Should gold drift lower in the near future, it could be expected to provide even stronger support.

[Jack Haddad]

That's some good analysis you did there doc.

Thanks....

[Jack Haddad]

China's lack of freedom of press and expression is once again reminding all of us of their unease with the information highway. Both SINA and SOHU have been blocked by authorities in Beijing, apparently due to their failure to effectively block access to sites with content the government considers offensive. Is this rediculous or what!?

[Websman]

China's lack of freedom of press and expression is once again reminding all of us of their unease with the information highway. Both SINA and SOHU have been blocked by authorities in Beijing, apparently due to their failure to effectively block access to sites with content the government considers offensive. Is this rediculous or what!?

I've spent some time in China and I can tell you from personal experience that most of the younger people would love to leave there.

[peanuts]

China's lack of freedom of press and expression is once again reminding all of us of their unease with the information highway. Both SINA and SOHU have been blocked by authorities in Beijing, apparently due to their failure to effectively block access to sites with content the government considers offensive. Is this rediculous or what!?

I go China about 1-2 times a year. Last time, just for the hell of it, I typed in "Tianamen Square" in a search engine. The only thing that came back as a response were tourism sites.

I did not try a search for "falun gong"

The chief export of Chuck Norris is pain.

[Jack Haddad]

Aside from strong fundamentals, Technicals are pointing to a new 52 week high. Today's volume is pretty heavy. If 15 is breached, look for 16.25 till you have any resistance

[Websman]

I go China about 1-2 times a year. Last time, just for the hell of it, I typed in "Tianamen Square" in a search engine. The only thing that came back as a response were tourism sites.

I did not try a search for "falun gong"

The chief export of Chuck Norris is pain.

Peanuts, have you rode on the Bund Tunnel tram in Shanghai? Someone must have smoke a few when they designed it...it has all kinds of images and flashing lights as you go through the tunnel.

[Jack Haddad]

Between June 12 to 16, Richard Emmitt( General Partner and Director at American Medical Sciences Holdings), purchased a total of 650,000 shares for $16.24 per share. He now owns a total of 1.3 million shares or approximately 2% of the company's outstanding shares. On June 13, another director at the company, Thomas E. Timbie, also bought 5,000 shares for approximately $16.32 each, doubling his holdings in the company.


Does anyone has an opinion on this? It appears that shares have lost nearly 18% since June 5th, after the company announced that it had agreed to pay $715 million for San Jose, Calif.-based Laserscope, a maker of lasers for use in surgery. The stock is currently trading only slightly above its 52-week intraday low of $15.05 from October. This may bea nice technical bounce, no?

[Jack Haddad]

I've spent some time in China and I can tell you from personal experience that most of the younger people would love to leave there.

I concur 100% with you. My parents visited 18 months ago. Aside from the history, they praised nothing about the country. All teens there are immitating the west in any way they can-- coloring their hair, listning to pop and rock music,etc....

[peanuts]

Between June 12 to 16, Richard Emmitt( General Partner and Director at American Medical Sciences Holdings), purchased a total of 650,000 shares for $16.24 per share. He now owns a total of 1.3 million shares or approximately 2% of the company's outstanding shares. On June 13, another director at the company, Thomas E. Timbie, also bought 5,000 shares for approximately $16.32 each, doubling his holdings in the company.


Does anyone has an opinion on this? It appears that shares have lost nearly 18% since June 5th, after the company announced that it had agreed to pay $715 million for San Jose, Calif.-based Laserscope, a maker of lasers for use in surgery. The stock is currently trading only slightly above its 52-week intraday low of $15.05 from October. This may bea nice technical bounce, no?

My brother in law is a urologist in DC area. I was just there the other week and we were talking stocks. He recently did a lot of research on laserscope (the company) and being that he liked what he saw, he purchased prior to the announcement... made a hefty amount to date, but knew nothing about the buy-out. He was on to something, American Medical Sciences Holdings must be on to something, and I think you are too.

Where do you think a good entry point will be? I haven't done enough research, technically, to give any kind of opinion.


Chuck Norris once visited The Virgin Islands. It is now called The Islands.

[Jack Haddad]

My brother in law is a urologist in DC area. I was just there the other week and we were talking stocks. He recently did a lot of research on laserscope (the company) and being that he liked what he saw, he purchased prior to the announcement... made a hefty amount to date, but knew nothing about the buy-out. He was on to something, American Medical Sciences Holdings must be on to something, and I think you are too.

Where do you think a good entry point will be? I haven't done enough research, technically, to give any kind of opinion.


Chuck Norris once visited The Virgin Islands. It is now called The Islands.

I honestly am confused here. The technicals, if they have any merrit, point to a new 52 week low. Fundamentals have not changed a bit. The compnay is cheap relative to its industry peer. Further assuring, the stock is trading at near par valu on PEG basis. I'm so tempted here to buy at current levels.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought back 100 June 65.00 calls at .05 and wrote the July 60.00 at 6.30

Sold 1 block at 64.81, and bought back the july 60 calls at 6.00/contract. All in all, my net gain on 10,000 shares on this block was 1.25/share

[Jack Haddad]

Sold 1 block at 64.81, and bought back the july 60 calls at 6.00/contract. All in all, my net gain on 10,000 shares on this block was 1.25/share

All I have remaining in TSO is 3000 shares from 69.30

[Jack Haddad]

I honestly am confused here. The technicals, if they have any merrit, point to a new 52 week low. Fundamentals have not changed a bit. The compnay is cheap relative to its industry peer. Further assuring, the stock is trading at near par valu on PEG basis. I'm so tempted here to buy at current levels.


The AMMD purchase of Laserscope surgery center will be accretive to cash earnings per share in 2007 and accretive to reported earnings per share in 2008 and beyond. Unfortunately in this day and age, making an acquisition that will benefit earnings in two years is just too long for many investors in the environment that we are in today. Therefore, the stock is not reacting to the recent insider buying.

[DSteckler]

<< This may bea nice technical bounce, no? >>

Perhaps. AMMD bounced off its 200-week MA, at 15. The Volume Flow Indicator continues to weaken, however, (it went negative a coule of weeks ago) and this week's low is lower than the previous low made the week of October 28. If looking for a bounce I'd be quick on the trigger to sell at the first sign of weakness.

[Jack Haddad]

<< This may bea nice technical bounce, no? >>

Perhaps. AMMD bounced off its 200-week MA, at 15. The Volume Flow Indicator continues to weaken, however, (it went negative a coule of weeks ago) and this week's low is lower than the previous low made the week of October 28. If looking for a bounce I'd be quick on the trigger to sell at the first sign of weakness.

Thanks, Dave.

[Jack Haddad]

Purchased 3 blocks at 15.50 When a solid track record like Vertical Group is buying AMMD, I want to be on their side. The group has a solid track record with other investments, including Wright Medical Group, Lifecore Biomedical and Ventana Medical Systems. Vertical Group also recently spent $7 million to boost its stake in Ev3 by 500,000 shares (see Inside Scoop, "Vascular Firm Gets Another Injection," May 13, 2006). Vertical Group has traded this stock in the past. They last sold American Medical shares from November 2003 to December 2004. In eight separate transactions, Vertical Group sold approximately 785,000 shares at average prices ranging from $11.01 in November 2003 to $21.42 in December 2004 (prices are split-adjusted).

[Jack Haddad]

It's a buy here with heged calls. The projected growth of 25% at 23 times forward earnings is achievable.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=ebay

[Jack Haddad]

It's a buy here with heged calls. The projected growth of 25% at 23 times forward earnings is achievable.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=ebay

Sorry, I meant EBAY. Though YHOO is undervalued as well.

[Rob]

It's a buy here with heged calls. The projected growth of 25% at 23 times forward earnings is achievable.Which one, Doc? YHOO? or EBAY? (The link is to EBAY info.)

[Jack Haddad]

Folks, INTC is a strong sell. Yes, I understand that I should not make a powerful and certian statment like that, but the 18.60 daily resistance failed again after the first attempt on 6/19/06. Besides, look at the anemic volume.

[peanuts]

Purchased 3 blocks at 15.50 When a solid track record like Vertical Group is buying AMMD, I want to be on their side. The group has a solid track record with other investments, including Wright Medical Group, Lifecore Biomedical and Ventana Medical Systems. Vertical Group also recently spent $7 million to boost its stake in Ev3 by 500,000 shares (see Inside Scoop, "Vascular Firm Gets Another Injection," May 13, 2006). Vertical Group has traded this stock in the past. They last sold American Medical shares from November 2003 to December 2004. In eight separate transactions, Vertical Group sold approximately 785,000 shares at average prices ranging from $11.01 in November 2003 to $21.42 in December 2004 (prices are split-adjusted).

I initiated a mid-term position at 15.28 about 5 minutes ago. Small enough to matter, but not big enough to care.


Chuck Norris does not sleep, he waits.

[Jack Haddad]

Which one, Doc? YHOO? or EBAY? (The link is to EBAY info.)
it is EBAY

[Websman]

Folks, INTC is a strong sell. Yes, I understand that I should not make a powerful and certian statment like that, but the 18.60 daily resistance failed again after the first attempt on 6/19/06. Besides, look at the anemic volume.

I'll have to see if there are shares available to short...

[Rob]

it is EBAYCool, Doc. I like EBAY. Here's a chart.

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/4782/sc8mt.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/7310/cramersmiley4hc.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Jack Haddad]

[QUOTE=Rob]Which one, Doc? YHOO? or EBAY? (The link is to EBAY info.)[/

It's Ebay

[Jack Haddad]

According Bear Sterns and data from released from ComScore, Google could grow sequential net revenues north of 11%, to $1.7 billion. The have raised their net revenue estimate to $1.7 billion from $1.63 billion.

[Jack Haddad]

With BBY announcing that they will be selling Apple Macs, Apple's growth in the second quarter may be inhanced. With the company’s new product pipeline and an improving competition position, with an OS update coming by year end, Apple is well-positoned to outperform over the next several quarters.


Meanwhile, Rebecca Runkle of Morgan Stanley said that she expects a bunch of new Apple product soon, including a new Nano, a Mac Pro to replace the PowerMac, a new video iPod and possibly an upgraded operating system-- All of which should help accelerate revenue momentum in C2H06.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 1 block at 25.16 and sold 100 July 25.00 calls for 1.45/contract. After a nearly drop of 40% since Feb of 2006, the stock has reached a fair value. I also believe that the price war between INTC and AMD will boost PC demand in the second half of the year. At $25.16, AMD shares trade at 15 times 2007 GAAP earnings estimate of $1.65.

[Jack Haddad]

This coming Monday, Intel launches the Woodcrest processor at 10:00am pacific time. Industry analysts include the following:

A. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)
B. Operating system vendors (OSVs)
C. Independent software vendors (ISVs)
D. Industry alliances and standards bodies

This dual-core processor launch is significant because it is the first product built on the new Intel Core microarchitecture, and is manufactured using the company’s industry-leading 65-nm process technology. Early reviews and analyst reports show Woodcrest has a strong competitive advantage over server processors from AMD. Later this summer, Intel will extend its energy-efficient performance leadership with additional dual-core, 65-nm products -- the Conroe and Merom processors for desktop and mobile platforms.

[Jack Haddad]

Talks have been circulating at Merrill lately in ragards to a 50 billion plus hostile takeover of YHOO by MSFT. It has been the view of Merrill that Googles ongoing traffic share gains and greater focus on building a software platform (recent spreadsheet launch and Adobe partnership) increase acquisition probability. Consequently, such a takeout would highly increase YHOO's and EBAY's stock valuations.

[Jack Haddad]

Sandy Ward and John Aiken, head of research at Majestic Research, advised against Apple (AAPL), citing slowing growth in iPod revenues. The see second quarter iPod sales of 7.3 million units, which would be significantly below even the recently reduced estimates of other analysts, which are running 500,000 to 1 million units higher. While this may be true, how much of this news had already been baked in the price of the stock? I think quite a bit.

[DSteckler]

Talks have been circulating at Merrill lately in ragards to a 50 billion plus hostile takeover of YHOO by MSFT.

I've been waiting for something like this to happen. I always assumed EBAY was also in their gunsights.

[RL]

DR. Jack Is time to buy INTC and EBAY?

[Jack Haddad]

Technically, I like EBAY more than INTC. Fundamentally, INTC is posed to really benefit higher by year-end. Both are good to own.

[Jack Haddad]

Bought 5 blocks at 14.62, and wrote the 500 July 15 calls for .20/contract.

Outstanding fourth quarter results provided Oracle with some justification for the flurry of acquisitions completed over the past 18 months. Revenue increased 25%, including a 32% rise in the new software license category. Much of the 83% increase in application license revenue was due to the Siebel acquisition, but organic growth of 56% was impressive also. Oracle generated $4.2 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2006, nearly a 30% increase versus last year. Similar to last year, Oracle spent significant working capital in the fourth quarter. Yet because working capital was a generator of cash in the first nine months of the year, working capital usage for the full year was negligible. Since Oracle does not pay a dividend and capital expenditures are modest ($241 million), virtually all of cash from operations becomes free cash flow. Share repurchases totaled $2.1 billion in fiscal 2006. This was a substantial increase compared to the $1.3 billion in fiscal 2005. Moreover, the company intends to buy back $1 billion of stock in each quarter for fiscal 2007. While $4 billion in annual share repurchases is substantial, our concerns are mitigated by our estimate for free cash flow of nearly $5.6 billion.


Oracle is also stealing market share from SAP in applications, IBM in database, and BEA in middleware. Theyre doing that by emphasizing technological advantages.

[Jack Haddad]

I've been waiting for something like this to happen. I always assumed EBAY was also in their gunsights.

Dave, based on MSFT's search/advertising capabilities, their concentration on mobile devices and video games gadgets, YHOO may be a better fit. As for number crunching, Justin Post of Merrill whomm I have spoken to last Friday released a very sound statistics to justify YHOO's takeover. "Based on acquisition premiums ranging from 30-47%, our analysis suggests that Microsoft can acquire Yahoo! (from $40-45/share) using cash and debt as acquisition currencies and suffer minimal EPS dilution ($0.01-0.04). We estimate the same range of dilution for an eBay acquisition, although acquisition would have less strategic benefits, in our view."

[RL]

for your answer on EBAY and INTC going to buy both

[Jack Haddad]

Added 1 block of EBAY at 28.48