EMphase's Vault of Secrets

[EMphase]

http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/banner.jpg

EMphase puts EMphasis on TA/FA!
My method of selecting stocks is first based on basic technical and fundamental filters/screenings. Once I found a stock that meets the basic criteras, I will make a complete technical analysis. I usually take position in the stock once I’m satisfied enough with the perspective / outcome of the stock and only if the momentum is great. I usually have a medium term perspective for my investments (1month-24months). I will then proceed by making a complete fundamental analysis if I plan on keeping the stock longer than the technical play I first based my « buy » decision on.

On this post, I will analyse:
- Stocks
- Indexes

http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/mindicators.jpg

[EMphase]

Symmetrical triangle on GCO with break out! Discussion on page 2 with explanations.

[EMphase]

Fundamental Analysis
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/mpaper.jpg

General
Management/Board of Direction, News, Industry, Economy.

Ratios
Current Ratio, Quick Ratio, Receivables Turnover, Inventory Turnover, Payable Turnover, Asset Turnover, Equity Turnover, Gross Profit Margin, Operational Profit Margin, Net Profit Margin, ROE, ROA, Debt/Equity, Interest Coverage, CFO/Debt, Retention Rate, Growth Rate, Price / Earning, Price / Book, Price / Sale, etc.

Others
NPV, EVA, CAPM, bêta, etc.

Technical Analysis
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/mwave.jpg

Elliott Wave Analysis
Too complicated to explain here. I highly recommend the purchase of this bundle pack of books to better understand the theory.

The Essential Elliott Wave Collection (20% discount off individual books)
Get the collection of books Bob Prechter calls "The Essentials" for anyone interested in the Wave Principle: Elliott Wave Principle – Key to Market Behavior, Prechter's Perspective and R.N. Elliott's Masterworks.
Our Price: $72.00 | More Info http://www.elliottwave.com/store/

Moving Averages
When the short one is crossing the long one "up", it means a wave 1,3,5,b is most likely starting or already started.

When the short one is crossing the long one "down", it means a wave 2,4,a,c is most likely starting or already started.

RSI (or Slow Stochastic)
70% overbought
30% oversold
50% break-up: positive signal
50% break-down: negative signal

Candlestick Patterns
When you know a wave is about to end, a candlestick pattern may give an extra hint. However the candlestick pattern without the understanding the Elliot Wave count behind it is not very reliable in my opinion.

Fibonacci retracements
Useful but only if you are using at the pivot points of the waves. Which means at the very beginning or at the very end of a wave. Anywhere else it's not useful and doesn't have predictable power.

Traditionnal patterns
Wedges, Flags, Triangle, Double Top, Double Bottom, H&S, reverse H&S, ETC. however there is a difference:
The traditional analyst will take anything that looks like a pattern by its name. For example, if a traditional analyst sees something that looks like a triangle, he will say it's a triangle and like some people here said... it's a triangle until it's proven it's not.

The Elliott Wave analyst must meet specific criteras to call a pattern by it's name. For example, something that looks like a triangle is a valid triangle only if it's a corrective pattern from wave 4 or B or if it's part of a double three or triple three. Also the triangle must contain 5 corrective waves of a smaller degree. If it doesn't have 5 waves (a,b,c,d,e) it's NOT a triangle. A triangle that meets all these criteras have PREDICTABLE power... Like this one on BBD.

Channels, Support & Resistances
These are very important tools for an EW analyst. However contrary to a traditionnal analyst, you can draw a channel using EW only if it meet certain criteras. If the criteras aren't met,the channel isn't recognized as the true channel.

Support and resistances appears on corrective patterns that are bounded within certain price ranges or also can be estimated on places where shares got accumulated for a certain period of time.

Measurements (price & time)
Measuring the lenght of a wave can have some great predicting power. For example, wave 5 often got at least the lenght of wave 1. So take the measure of wave 1 and report it on the chart starting from wave 4 and you will have a fairly accurate estimate for a minimal target. Thats just 1 example.

Volume & Volume by price
This is very important to confirm a break out of a pattern like a triangle. A break out can only be confirmed on stronger than usual volume.

Logarithmic charts
Very important. You can't count waves correctly without using a log scale.

Others
All of these can be used to help with the EW analysis but none of them are essential. Let's just say their use depends of the situation: MACD, DMI, % short interest, Put/Call ratio, P/E ratio, Earnings, Dividends, Splits.

[EMphase]

To be edited later on.

[EMphase]

Currently on my watchlist:
GCO

[EMphase]

To be edited later on.

[EMphase]

To be edited later on.

[EMphase]

To be edited later on.

[EMphase]

To be edited later on.

[EMphase]

To be edited later on.

[EMphase]

Genesco Inc.
I just have that passion about triangle patterns. Here is one I found today. The break out happened not too long ago and the pullback is now over.

I got a little trick that is useful to estimate the target both in price and time approximately for symmetrical triangles: Draw the triangle and annotate A,B,C,D,E to validate the pattern. Then draw a parallel resistance channel line starting from B. Just connect A with D and draw a line. The intersection of that line with the resistance channel is the approximative target for the impulsive wave 5.

Past example:
This is one of my most successful trades for symmetrical triangles. HELE in 2001-2002. View how accurate the price * time estimation was using my technique. I bought HELE @ 10.25. Many people said I had balls to trade a triangle that didn't break out yet but I knew what I was doing. Then the rest of the story is written on the chart below as you can see. HELE went up pretty fast. I had a target of HELE @ 14.25 - 14.50 at that time. I sold inside that range just at the top. HELE actually went a bit higher than my target but its neglectable.
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/HELE.gif

Current example:
HELE is a case of the past. Now let's see a possible an example right now of this with GCO. Target is approximately 48.00-50.00 $US and a timeframe of 1-1.5 month according to my price * time technique.

GCO itself is a fair stock with decent fundamentals. P/E: 14, ROE: 20%, Debt/Equity: 30%, Growth of sales and profits 15% / 20% respectively, 95% institutionnally owned, beta of 1.30. Compared to the industry, GCO is about average right now, nothing exceptionnal at short glance but yet strong enought in my opinion to feel safe/secure.
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/GCO.gif

PS: This technique only works with symmetrical triangles. This doesn't really apply for ascending triangles / descending triangles / reversed triangles or other shapes of triangles.

[Websman]

Very fancy work dude... I like to look for the triangle patterns.

Show us what else you have.

[New-born baby]

Like I said before, keep posting. I very much like the symmetrical triangle "forecasting" tool. Thanks for showing us how to do it. I know it works as I've seen someone else do it, but I did not know how they drew the lines. Very, very nice work. :D

[EMphase]

I'm in GCO today @ 41.95$. I'm not gonna bother with the very short term momentum such as waiting 42.00$ to break.

[mrmarket]

way cool. EM

[Lyehopper]

I'll be an avid reader of this HUUUUGE!!!! thread....

Please feel free to visit my thread "Lyehopper's Roundup" and critique my picks.

[EMphase]

What do you think of this company (GCO),Mrmarket? I know you like approximately this type of company: good long term price momentum and decent fundamentals. Seems to match the industry's number but yet a little bit on the undervalued side. Hopefully they can exceed their new estimates.

Genesco Inc. Reaffirms FY 2007 Guidance In-Line With Analysts' Expectations
2006 Mar 2 12:36 PM
Genesco Inc. announced that it has reaffirmed its fiscal 2007 guidance. The Company now expects sales of approximately $1.46 billion and diluted earnings per share to be approximately $2.62. The earnings per share estimate includes expected FAS 123 (R) stock incentive expense and the amortization of recently granted restricted stock totaling approximately $0.17 per share. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts' were expecting the Company to report fiscal 2007 sales of approximately $1.43 billion and diluted earnings per share to be $2.70.

[mrmarket]

What do you think of this company (GCO),Mrmarket? I know you like approximately this type of company: good long term price momentum and decent fundamentals. Seems to match the industry's number but yet a little bit on the undervalued side. Hopefully they can exceed their new estimates.

Genesco Inc. Reaffirms FY 2007 Guidance In-Line With Analysts' Expectations
2006 Mar 2 12:36 PM
Genesco Inc. announced that it has reaffirmed its fiscal 2007 guidance. The Company now expects sales of approximately $1.46 billion and diluted earnings per share to be approximately $2.62. The earnings per share estimate includes expected FAS 123 (R) stock incentive expense and the amortization of recently granted restricted stock totaling approximately $0.17 per share. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts' were expecting the Company to report fiscal 2007 sales of approximately $1.43 billion and diluted earnings per share to be $2.70.


It has shown up in my data dumps before, so it qualifies for a MM pick. However it's overall price momentum (up about 50% past 12 months) isn't quite what my top 5 picks generally muster. Also, without calculating it, the price chart would not have a high R^2 coefficient which would also keep it out of my top 5.

That doesn't mean it won't go up in price. It has good earnings growth and it's still cheap...two things I like in a stock.

[spikefader]

http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/banner.jpg I love the 'c'!

I don't think you should be doing "To be edited later" type posts. What's the reason?

[EMphase]

I want all the first posts page so all the good stuff can be found from the first page, at least the summary of each important topics. Thats obvious. I don't want my important posts to be lost somewhere in the posts jungle. It's easier both for me and the readers.

c?

[IIC]

I want all the first posts page so all the good stuff can be found from the first page, at least the summary of each important topics. Thats obvious. I don't want my important posts to be lost somewhere in the posts jungle. It's easier both for me and the readers.

c?

No it isn't...When your thread ends up with 10 pages nobody will even be looking at page one...Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

I want all the first posts page so all the good stuff can be found from the first page, at least the summary of each important topics. Thats obvious. I don't want my important posts to be lost somewhere in the posts jungle. It's easier both for me and the readers.

c?
You'll need to tell us when you fill in all of those empty pages or else we'll never read em dude.... btw.... this is just a freakin message board, not a book.jejeje

[EMphase]

The forums automatically load page 1. Some forums, if you already visited a topic will jump to the last page. It's not the case with this board so thats all fair practice. Don't worry they will be filled soon or later.

[IIC]

The forums automatically load page 1. Some forums, if you already visited a topic will jump to the last page. It's not the case with this board so thats all fair practice. Don't worry they will be filled soon or later.


Maybe you have some kind of magic internet connection because when I click on a thread the latest page appears...IIC

[Rob]

. . . when I click on a thread the latest page appears . . .Even when you click on the thread's title?

When I click the title, the first page/first message displays. However, when I click the little icon next to the name of the member who last posted, then the link takes me to the most recent post.

I like the way EM set this up. It'll always be easy to find the list, no matter how many superfluous posts (such as this one) are tacked on.

[IIC]

Even when you click on the thread's title?

When I click the title, the first page/first message displays. However, when I click the little icon next to the name of the member who last posted, then the link takes me to the most recent post.

I like the way EM set this up. It'll always be easy to find the list, no matter how many superfluous posts (such as this one) are tacked on.

When I click the title the last post appears...maybe there is some kind of Forum preference you can choose?...But no time to check now...Anyway I like it that way...IIC

[spikefader]

GCO is a good pick dude. Support play after a breakout is what I"ll wait for. Chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/GCOMay9.html). Thanks for the heads up.

[EMphase]

Your chart doesn't work on your link Spikefader.

I'm glad you like GCO. I'm happy with it so far and it's moving in the right direction.

[spikefader]

OK, just fixed that link. I note the breakout today; so I'm stalkin' fer a pattern with good r/r.

[EMphase]

The triangle already broke up according to EW. But I guess its very likely you will have the price confirmation you are waiting for.

[Rob]

This technique you describe is new to me, and it looks interesting. As a first stab at it, would you say this chart says 51 as a near-term target for WMT?

http://img56.imageshack.us/img56/3240/wmt1ok.gif (http://imageshack.us/)

Or is there something in this triangle pattern that makes it not a good candidate? I'd be interested in your take. Thanks.

[DSteckler]

E needs to be lower than C, Rob. Otherwise, it's still D.

[Runner]

E needs to be lower than C, Rob. Otherwise, it's still D.
E does not need to be lower then C in a contracting triangle. I think the chart is bullish check out the weekly chart of WMT.

[DSteckler]

E does not need to be lower then C in a contracting triangle. I think the chart is bullish check out the weekly chart of WMT.

Oh, I didn't realize he was charting an EW plot.

By contracting triangle, do you mean a symmetrical triangle? The latter is a type of the former.

[New-born baby]

I think WMT is a bear until she busts that $48 resistance. Descending triangle.

[DSteckler]

Resistance at 50 (the descending resistance line on the weekly chart) and 52 (the 200-week MA).

[EMphase]

WMT is definitely not a triangle for the short term. a,b,c,d,e needs to only contain 3 lesser degree waves.

WMT however had a descending triangle on a 6 years chart. Is the correction over? Not sure as the current little burst may just be a little pull back.

[lemonjello]

EM,

Got a take on when MFLX gets safe?

[EMphase]

Lemonjello, sorry I don't know. It's a falling knife. Next stop is probably 40.00$US.

GCO is doing nice. Spikefader, you got your signal today if the price stays above 43.00$US. Price is currently at 43.29$US.

[spikefader]

..GCO is doing nice. Spikefader, you got your signal today if the price stays above 43.00$US. Price is currently at 43.29$US.
Never fear spike's stalkin' is here :D
Still not ready for me. I seek perfection. Chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/GCOMay10.html)

[EMphase]

Update
On your graphic you are making it as an ascending triangle but imo it's a symmetrical triangle. Read the comments on the graphic below.
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/GCO2.gif

[spikefader]

Yep, qualifies as one of them too :D And the recent test of your top line coinciding with the 'c long' was a good support play. Were you watching it then? That's the area I'd react to a holler :D

[spikefader]

...Spikefader, you got your signal today if the price stays above 43.00$US. Price is currently at 43.29$US.I see yesterday it did close over 43.00, so are you saying that's your signal, i.e. the trigger, to buy it? At the close?
Never fear spike's stalkin' is here :D
Still not ready for me. I seek perfection. Chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/GCOMay10.html)
OK, now it's ready for me. 2.5% or so cheaper......my risk only 0.63%.
Entry Chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/GCOMay11.html)
And if it stops out, I shall keep making these kind of plays until I nail it, the chart changes bias, or I lose interest and find better setups to stalk :D

[EMphase]

I'm not sure it's going to stop at 42.50$. It might go lower such as 42.00$ before going up again. I want to buy more shares again but I will wait for tomorrow I think.

[spikefader]

Yep, it takes my risk and I'm back to stalking.

[EMphase]

Fibonacci retracement 38.2% is 42.45$, 50% is 42.00$ and 61.8% is something like 41.65$ IIRC. Maybe look for an entry point at 41.65$/42.00$ if 42.45$ doesn't hold. I think 42.00$ would hold it most likely thought.

[Lyehopper]

Fibonacci retracement 38.2% is 42.45$, 50% is 42.00$ and 61.8% is something like 41.65$ IIRC. Maybe look for an entry point at 41.65$/42.00$ if 42.45$ doesn't hold. I think 42.00$ would hold it most likely thought.
Here's the way I see the Fibonacci Retracement on GCO.... Note: This chart does not show today's price action (Low today was $42.38)

Given market conditions, I'd stalk to the 50% line.... There's a little $0.03 gap sitting dead on the line, did you fellas see that?.... Pretty nice stock, I'm researching further.

http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/1165/gco6oe.png (http://imageshack.us)

[EMphase]

Canadian & american outlook 2006
When I don't understand much what's happening graphically with the DJIA and the SP500, I have a little canadian secret: The SPTSX aka old TSE300. That index is the easiest index to understand graphically and by FAR. You will love it too! That index contains mostly financial, basic materials, some tech stocks, paper, oil & consumer products companies.

Usually that index follows alot what's going on in the US so it's relevant to predict what's going to happen in the US to some extend... Except that the canadian economy is better in general so expect that the lenghts of the waves to be of bigger intensity than the ones on the US market at least now since 2003.

Short term
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/SPTSX2.gif

Medium term
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/SPTSX1.gif

Long term
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/SPTSX.gif

SPTSX reached a top @ 12500 points and is now making a huge long term double top.
SPTSX finished an extended wave 5.
Conclusion: SPTSX is going back to the 11500-11750 range to touch the channel support within the next weeks. This means the US market will be that sluggish too. If the channel support is broken then SPTSX is going to 9500 points, which is the level of the 2nd wave of the extension. Extended 5's are nasty. Hopefully that channel support is going to hold!

[sisterwin2]

Canadian & american outlook 2006
When I don't understand much what's happening graphically with the DJIA and the SP500, I have a little canadian secret: The SPTSX aka old TSE300. That index is the easiest index to understand graphically and by FAR. You will love it too! That index contains mostly financial, basic materials, some tech stocks, paper, oil & consumer products companies. Usually that index follows alot what's going on in the US so it's relevant to predict what's going to happen in the US.

Medium term
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/SPTSX1.gif

Long term
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/SPTSX.gif

SPTSX reached a top @ 12500 points and is now making a huge long term double top.
SPTSX finished an extended wave 5.
Conclusion: SPTSX is going back to the 11500-11750 range to touch the channel support within the next weeks. This means the US market will be that sluggish too. If the channel support is broken then SPTSX is going to 9500 points, which is the level of the 2nd wave of the extension. Extended 5's are nasty. Hopefully that channel support is going to hold!


Is this why ELN has a increase today ya think? I cant seem to find anything to explain why 4% increase

[EMphase]

Is this why ELN has a increase today ya think? I cant seem to find anything to explain why 4% increase

ELN is in a defensive industry: drugs manufacturing and R&D. That industry is holding better than the market in general when the market is sinking.

[spikefader]

Canadian & american outlook 2006
When I don't understand much what's happening graphically with the DJIA and the SP500, I have a little canadian secret: The SPTSX aka old TSE300. That index is the easiest index to understand graphically and by FAR. You will love it too! That index contains mostly financial, basic materials, some tech stocks, paper, oil & consumer products companies.

Usually that index follows alot what's going on in the US so it's relevant to predict what's going to happen in the US to some extend... Except that the canadian economy is better in general so expect that the lenghts of the waves to be of bigger intensity than the ones on the US market at least now since 2003.

Short term
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/SPTSX2.gif

Medium term
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/SPTSX1.gif

Long term
http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/SPTSX.gif

SPTSX reached a top @ 12500 points and is now making a huge long term double top.
SPTSX finished an extended wave 5.
Conclusion: SPTSX is going back to the 11500-11750 range to touch the channel support within the next weeks. This means the US market will be that sluggish too. If the channel support is broken then SPTSX is going to 9500 points, which is the level of the 2nd wave of the extension. Extended 5's are nasty. Hopefully that channel support is going to hold!Good stuff Emphase. Thanks.

EDIT: Oh, and by the way, another GCO setup presented today. Details and chart at my blog for anyone interested.

[EMphase]

GCO is still "working as intended". It did a 100% retracement on wave 1. I didn't expect it to retrace -that low- but thats still fine and it was something that could happen. However if it breaks 40.00$ then it looks bad. I hope this won't happen but this time it looks like it's going to bounce back.

SPTSX canadian index is doing exactly what I said so far. It' sinking. It went lower than 11750 points. It's now at 11640 points. This means that the outlook isn't nice in the US.

[lemonjello]

EM

Jim Smith just posted that the Nasd comp broke a trendline that goes back to 2002. Does EW have a target on that? I remember Prechter was predicting a further fall sometime back.

[marketwavez]

HERE'S LOOKING AT THE WAVES IN THE NASDAQ
------------------------------------------------------------------------

The charts by Marketwavez are simply Elliott wave-counts that are believed to be what the given market is tracing out . Wave-counts are highly subjective and definitely not 100 % reliable... Wave-counts also vary from one person to another who may be analyzing the given market and also can vary based on the time frames that are being analyzed.....>>

2 CHARTS POSTED BELOW
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=39838&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=39839&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

[lemonjello]

Looks like EM has left the building. ;)

marketwavez,

Nice charts, but I was thinking back to 82. I'm definitely not an Elliott Wave expert, but aren't there 3 big waves up to 2000 and then there are supposed to be two waves down? If one down wave was from 2000 to 2002 then there's another down wave left in this cycle which would probably go below 1100. Or maybe that was already two waves down to 1100 and the Naz is already on another cycle up? Don't know. I just recall Prechter was predicting something like that (and was too early) and then the Naz target would be around 500 before it started up again. That sounds really bad, but it's already been to 1100 and back up. It could happen with something like another big Al Qaeda attack or Iran starts a Hormuz oil tanker turkey shoot with its supersonic silkworm missles. I never thought I'd see something like 9/11 or the Katrina debacle happen, so I wouldn't be suprised about anything at this point.

HERE'S LOOKING AT THE WAVES IN THE NASDAQ
------------------------------------------------------------------------

The charts by Marketwavez are simply Elliott wave-counts that are believed to be what the given market is tracing out . Wave-counts are highly subjective and definitely not 100 % reliable... Wave-counts also vary from one person to another who may be analyzing the given market and also can vary based on the time frames that are being analyzed.....>>

2 CHARTS POSTED BELOW
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=39838&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=39839&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

[marketwavez]

Looks like more Red ink for the Nasdsaq today ...

---------------------------------------------------

DOWN ANOTHER 28 POINTS SO FAR ........

[spikefader]

Here's the way I see the Fibonacci Retracement on GCO.... Note: This chart does not show today's price action (Low today was $42.38)

Given market conditions, I'd stalk to the 50% line.... There's a little $0.03 gap sitting dead on the line, did you fellas see that?.... Pretty nice stock, I'm researching further.

http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/1165/gco6oe.png (http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/1165/gco6oe.png)
Gap closed now Lye. 1.5% risk setup presents right here (http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/05/gco_22.html)

[ninner]

hey em what do u think of TALX and KEYW.....nice to have u aboard!!!

cheers

[IIC]

HERE'S LOOKING AT THE WAVES IN THE NASDAQ
------------------------------------------------------------------------

The charts by Marketwavez are simply Elliott wave-counts that are believed to be what the given market is tracing out . Wave-counts are highly subjective and definitely not 100 % reliable... Wave-counts also vary from one person to another who may be analyzing the given market and also can vary based on the time frames that are being analyzed.....>>

2 CHARTS POSTED BELOW
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=39838&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=39839&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146


HIGHLY Subjective is an Understatement...How about HIGHLY subject to what anyone wants to say?...Pretty much garbage IMO...not 100% reliable?...IMO not even 10% reliable...I think EW is hogwash...I'm not trying to put you or anyone else down...But I just don't buy it...I think he is a good marketeer...That's about it...Best, Doug

[spikefader]

HIGHLY Subjective is an Understatement...How about HIGHLY subject to what anyone wants to say?...Pretty much garbage IMO...not 100% reliable?...IMO not even 10% reliable...I think EW is hogwash...I'm not trying to put you or anyone else down...But I just don't buy it...I think he is a good marketeer...That's about it...Best, Douglol not tryin' to put anyone down! lol

Hey Doug.......what are you feelings on Spike's Fuzzy C at least being a volatile pivot point? Throw in some good r/r and management and that'll make you some bucks won't it?

[ninner]

charts in general can be very subjective...there are lots of ways to intrepret them.

cheers all

[IIC]

lol not tryin' to put anyone down! lol

Hey Doug.......what are you feelings on Spike's Fuzzy C at least being a volatile pivot point? Throw in some good r/r and management and that'll make you some bucks won't it?

I have no idea???...I just do what I do...But I'm sure that most have absolutely no idea what I do...I've had quite a few people that know me fairly well ask me..."What the h*ll do you do anyway"?...Guess I'm not very good at explaining...But I look at a lot of different things and make a lot of trades based on various reasons depending on my immediate goals...Doug

[marketwavez]

Nothing is 100% - Nothing ...


No trading method including Elliott Waves or not ... is 100%
Is this not the truth ?-

Please don't acuse me of being a great marketer for saying this .
These words are common sense - not marketing ....

Elliott Waves is Just a trading method -Thats all ! ....
It has it's good points and its not so good points .
Just like what ever the trading method that you are currently utilizing . Yes, .....The same can be said ....

Your current trading method that you are using is also Subjective and definately not 100% ...
The situation is the same , One is not better than the other.

Your trading plan is not better than Elliott waves and Elliott waves is also not better than what ever Trading method you are currently using .

It does'nt matter if you ageree or not - These words are not here for everyone . Some people will never apreciate what's being said here . Some people just don't get it and never will !
This is the truth of the matter

So , Here's the bottom line -

PLAN YOUR TRADE- ....... and .......TRADE YOUR PLAN ............


Looking for the Holy Grail ? The closest thing that exists to this is called -
Risk to Reward - coupled with what's called Position Sizing.......
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[marketwavez]

THIS STYLE OF TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE ......

We are not all the same ......... We are all built differently .

We all have different experiences and more importantly don't see the charts or the world the same way . This is why if you gave the same chart data to 10 diffrent people who interpret the Elliott Wave you will come up with diffrent wave counts .

Does it mean someone has the wrong wave count? ..... No !
It doesn't mean this at all ......

It's all a matter of perception . -in which some times is greater than reality , by the way .

So , here's the bottom line ,
----------------------------------------------------------
- It doesn't matter what your Wolf wave count is .
- It doesn’t matter what your Elliott wave count is .
- It doesn't matter what your Gartley count is .

All wave counts are Subjective.............(So is your current trading method )

What matters is Price Action .
( and the ability to analyze time )

Tracing out Elliott Waves - Wolf Waves- and Gartleys is
not a competition to see who has the right wave count .

These wave structures mean nothing without applying sound
Risk to Reward principles, which in the long run is the key
to success in the market .

-Please do not confuse Risk to Reward with Money management....
though similar, Money management is a subject on to its own .
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The charts by Marketwavez are simply Elliott wave-counts that are believed to be what the given market is tracing out . Wave-counts are highly subjective and definitely not 100 % reliable... Wave-counts also vary from one person to another who may be analyzing the given market and also can vary based on the time frames that are being analyzed.....


I leave you with my trading motto for now
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Professionals are concerned with Risk to Reward

- Everybody else is concerned with being right all the time .

[Runner]

HIGHLY Subjective is an Understatement...How about HIGHLY subject to what anyone wants to say?...Pretty much garbage IMO...not 100% reliable?...IMO not even 10% reliable...I think EW is hogwash...I'm not trying to put you or anyone else down...But I just don't buy it...I think he is a good marketeer...That's about it...Best, Doug
Doug, I’ll need to disagree with you on the part that EW is garbage. The problem is most who criticize a methodology never study it and or stick with it long enough. I bet this happens every day where people try something new and they get chopped up and continue to find something new and continue to get chopped up.. Now as far as subjective any chart you post or talk about to anyone is subjective to ones perception. I think EARNINGS are subjective to false BS. YES that’s right how many companies do you think are feeding you a big bag of crap? I bet you a dime to a donut ENRON is not the last you will read about. But hey this is my subjective approach to things…. These big dogs for the most part, are crooks and I’m not getting caught up about earnings and all that other crap. But hey that is what makes this so interesting. My methodology does not need to be popular and I could care less what others think. I will not downgrade your methods or anyone else’s as being garbage.

[lemonjello]

Not to mention little ripoffs like tech companies that back date their executive stock options grants to catch the lowest price and once again rip-off the shareholders.

About EW - there are people that make a lot of money trading using fundamentals and/or charts/technicals usually both together. I wouldn't dismiss the chart or technicals out of hand.

I'm no expert on EW but some of the things I've picked up from reading a Prechter book seem to come very close to real events. I definitely wouldn't be suprised to see the Naz go a LOT lower on this cycle down - which is something Prechter predicted from EW if I remember correctly.

May not happen, but as I mentioned above - who expected 9/11, etc. (not the US gov't obviously). If the Iranians close off tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf - the entire world economy would go into an uncontrolled crash as the price of oil went to $1000. It's a pretty good guess they have the missles set up already - what if some Iranian guy drinks too much Turkish coffee and accidentally hits one of the buttons? It could happen. ;)



...how many companies do you think are feeding you a big bag of crap? I bet you a dime to a donut ENRON is not the last you will read about. But hey this is my subjective approach to things…. These big dogs for the most part, are crooks and I’m not getting caught up about earnings and all that other crap. But hey that is what makes this so interesting. My methodology does not need to be popular and I could care less what others think. I will not downgrade your methods or anyone else’s as being garbage.

[marketwavez]

Theres no such thing as an Elliott Wave expert ....
Wave counts are going to vary based on who's counting it
and the time frames being used .

--------------------------------------------------------

There is only the understanding of Risk to Reward
to apply to your trading method of choice .
This is what keeps you ! Along with position sizing ......
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Most people selling and telliing Elliott Waves .... Don't really understand this either .

[marketwavez]

Lets look at the dow


This is an alternative count -........you dont have to agree with it to appreciate what its saying

the dow jones - begininng of a 5th wave
with a ......

Diamomnd Top Fornmation



Diamond tops are rare as it is ....... but there it was -was for all to see
----------------------------------------------------------------
how may people had this perspective on the Dow ? ( 2 ) charts posted ....

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=39709&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146


http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=39713&u=marketwaves&a=marketwaves&id=1146

[New-born baby]

If the Iranians close off tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf - the entire world economy would go into an uncontrolled crash as the price of oil went to $1000. It's a pretty good guess they have the missles set up already - what if some Iranian guy drinks too much Turkish coffee and accidentally hits one of the buttons? It could happen. ;)

It is not the coffee; it is the mosque; it is the religion; it is the ayatollahs; it is the Koran, with its 120 verses that say that unless you worship Allah, you must die. That's the problem and it will not go away.

[IIC]

Doug, I’ll need to disagree with you on the part that EW is garbage. The problem is most who criticize a methodology never study it and or stick with it long enough. I bet this happens every day where people try something new and they get chopped up and continue to find something new and continue to get chopped up.. Now as far as subjective any chart you post or talk about to anyone is subjective to ones perception. I think EARNINGS are subjective to false BS. YES that’s right how many companies do you think are feeding you a big bag of crap? I bet you a dime to a donut ENRON is not the last you will read about. But hey this is my subjective approach to things…. These big dogs for the most part, are crooks and I’m not getting caught up about earnings and all that other crap. But hey that is what makes this so interesting. My methodology does not need to be popular and I could care less what others think. I will not downgrade your methods or anyone else’s as being garbage.

OK...You're right...Sorry for the thoughtless comment...Doug(IIC)

[Runner]

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/1855/ewsp5007ea.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Hear is another possibility I’m contemplating as far as EW counts. I think it is possible that we are or currently in the B from the 2000 top (S&P). I think the bottom in 2002 is possibly the A. If this is true then we very well could see a nasty C move to the downside. Not sure on this as my EW is fuzzy (as Spike says) to say the least. If (big question mark) my theory is close I think we slide this summer and this could get pretty ugly. Please feel free to advise me on my thought process as I view this as still part of the bigger corrective move from the 2000 top……

If we rally up and clear the 2000 highs I’ll then admit my wrong way of thinking.