Lyehopper's Roundup....

[Lyehopper]

As many of you know I started a Metals Mfg Company (CNC Machine Shop) way back in 1985.... That's my real job.... But that ain't my passion.

http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/6852/lyesroundup3qw.png (http://imageshack.us)


My passion?.... I am a beef cattle farmer in the heart of the Blue Ridge Mountains of South Western Virginia.... NO I DID NOT SAY "WEST VIRGINIA."... I own a little 470 acres place that I call "Lyehopper Hollow Farm." I lease another 1,000+- acres that I also farm. I have one full time employee and a few part timers during "hay season."... I raise commercial Black Angus and Black Simmental influenced beef cattle. How do you make money raising cows you might ask?... Well, it's simple, You buy low and sell high.... Or you buy high and sell higher.... Or you develop a group of brood cows that (if fed properly) will have superior milk production and mothering instincts .... you breed them to good production bulls and hope they raise you a very fat and healthy calf that weighs as much as possible at weaning time.... 600 pounds (six weight) @ eight months old is a good target. I sell my calves at a VA State graded sale at a place we call.... The liveSTOCK market. Get it? YEAH!!!! Farmers buy and sell stock all the time.... Now on to the stockSTOCK market.... I have traded stocks since 1988. I have learned the hard way fellas and I am in this thing to retain earnings and grow my wealth. I work way too hard to invest foolishly and I do not become emotionally attached to any stock (and that goes for cattle too)....

The purpose of this thread is to showcase stocks that I like. Many of the stocks I will mention on this thread are ones that I actually trade. Those who know me here know that I trade both long and short. So both long and short trades will be featured.

Now I like $$$Mr Market$$$ and I am the first to admit that he is HUUUUGE in the stock picking world.... BUT.... I plan to start my own track record of HUUUGE gainers right here on this thread.

My strategy is a little different from Ernie's.... Here's what I plan to do....

(1) I will be trading long and short
(2) I will NOT hold my losers indefinitely.
(3) I will attempt to trade stocks with decent volume.
(4) I will use TA to time my trades entry and exit.
(5) I will ask for advice from YOU on many trades before I make my move.
(6) I will not limit myself to 15% gain.... I may take more.... Or Less.
(7) I will use criteria that I have developed to identify my plays.
(8) I will post a log of my trades here for all to see.
(9) I will go in and out of the same stock on occasion for separate trades.

Above all I want this to be a fun thread. Feel free to speak your mind and post anything here you'd like.

[New-born baby]

Sounds great, Lye-Baby. Let's get with the program and start posting your shorts! You ARE going to short this bearish market, aren't you? :D

[Lyehopper]

I bought CVGI today and the highest I paid was $19.10 (I'll use $19.10 on my thread trade log).... My POTW entry was $18.98.

Tell me what you think.... Do you hate or love it?.... Do you think TA says good or bad entry? Let me hear it.... What do you think of this companies fundamentals?

[Lyehopper]

Sounds great, Lye-Baby. Let's get with the program and start posting your shorts! You ARE going to short this bearish market, aren't you? :D
Actually I'm what you might call "cautiously Bullish".... I am bullish on certain stuff and bearish on certain stuff. I am holding both long and short positions right now.

Remember.... I choose my short plays on fundamentals and other dd first.... and TA second NBB.... I am short NRPH from $30.75 to $30.60.... So I'll use $30.60 as my log entry. What do you think?

[spikefader]

Excellent stuff Lye! I'm gonna be an avid reader fer sure.

Good luck!

I can see the HUGENESS already :D

[spikefader]

You ARE going to short this bearish market, aren't you? :Dlol are we on the same planet NB! hehe

[IIC]

I'm glad to see you do this new thread Lye...Now I can keep track of you.

As far as the market...I am Intermediate Bearish....Long Term Bullish...Best, Doug

[spikefader]

I bought CVGI today and the highest I paid was $19.10 (I'll use $19.10 on my thread trade log).... My POTW entry was $18.98.

Tell me what you think.... Do you hate or love it?.... Do you think TA says good or bad entry? Let me hear it.... What do you think of this companies fundamentals?At best I only like it until the descending triangle resistance on the 2-year weekly chart around 21.20ish. I can't see the r/r in it myself, but good luck anyway!

[Lyehopper]

At best I only like it until the descending triangle resistance on the 2-year weekly chart around 21.20ish. I can't see the r/r in it myself, but good luck anyway!
To understand my interest in this stock one must dig deeper than the chart.

To Look at CVGI and go no further than it's chart is like being served a big hot slice of Mrs. Lyehoppers pecan pie with a scoop of vanilla ice cream on top.... and only eat the ice cream.... A CRIME!!!! I tell ya!.... A CRIME!!!! is what that would be.LOL

[spikefader]

Lye, first let me say how much I like your short bias for NRPH. Cool lookin' channel bust in Feb, followed today with a symmetrical triangle breakdown. That's good for perhaps a target of 24.00; what's that...22% profit for you. Good luck with it dude.
one must dig deeper than the chart
Ah huh! Of course! :) And I do hate to put a TA downer on your first pick dude; so I apologize!! I'll throw it at ya just as a headsup and I'll await a bust of those patterns before I get warm and fuzzy about it hehe

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/7969/cvgimar21c1ny.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

It's similar in many ways to that dog PACT hehe which I note has still failed to perform and I'm wondering when it'll give up and drop to 3.00 like I expect it to. Stubborn thing! must have OK fundies hehehe Do you still like that one?

Best to ya.

[Peter Hansen]

As many of you know I started a Metals Mfg Company (CNC Machine Shop) way back in 1985.... That's my real job.... But that ain't my passion.

http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/6852/lyesroundup3qw.png (http://imageshack.us)


My passion?.... I am a beef cattle farmer in the heart of the Blue Ridge Mountains of South Western Virginia.... NO I DID NOT SAY "WEST VIRGINIA."... I own a little 470 acres place that I call "Lyehopper Hollow Farm." I lease another 1,000+- acres that I also farm. I have one full time employee and a few part timers during "hay season."... I raise commercial Black Angus and Black Simmental influenced beef cattle. How do you make money raising cows you might ask?... Well, it's simple, You buy low and sell high.... Or you buy high and sell higher.... Or you develop a group of brood cows that (if fed properly) will have superior milk production and mothering instincts .... you breed them to good production bulls and hope they raise you a very fat and healthy calf that weighs as much as possible at weaning time.... 600 pounds (six weight) @ eight months old is a good target. I sell my calves at a VA State graded sale at a place we call.... The liveSTOCK market. Get it? YEAH!!!! Farmers buy and sell stock all the time.... Now on to the stockSTOCK market.... I have traded stocks since 1988. I have learned the hard way fellas and I am in this thing to retain earnings and grow my wealth. I work way too hard to invest foolishly and I do not become emotionally attached to any stock (and that goes for cattle too)....

The purpose of this thread is to showcase stocks that I like. Many of the stocks I will mention on this thread are ones that I actually trade. Those who know me here know that I trade both long and short. So both long and short trades will be featured.

Now I like $$$Mr Market$$$ and I am the first to admit that he is HUUUUGE in the stock picking world.... BUT.... I plan to start my own track record of HUUUGE gainers right here on this thread.

My strategy is a little different from Ernie's.... Here's what I plan to do....

(1) I will be trading long and short
(2) I will NOT hold my losers indefinitely.
(3) I will attempt to trade stocks with decent volume.
(4) I will use TA to time my trades entry and exit.
(5) I will ask for advice from YOU on many trades before I make my move.
(6) I will not limit myself to 15% gain.... I may take more.... Or Less.
(7) I will use criteria that I have developed to identify my plays.
(8) I will post a log of my trades here for all to see.
(9) I will go in and out of the same stock on occasion for separate trades.

Above all I want this to be a fun thread. Feel free to speak your mind and post anything here you'd like.




Lye we look forward to your stock picks. Needless to say you do lead an interesting llife. I hope that Mad Cow scare in Alabama did not have any affect with your beef sales. Have a great day .

Pete

[Rob]

What do you think of this companies fundamentals?I always give more weight to fundamentals than to T/A, which is why I like CVGI. Just look at these numbers:
http://img49.imageshack.us/img49/2626/cvgire5bl.png
That's what I call robust growth. The fact that sales dropped by $5¾ million from Q3 to Q4 in '05 is a cause for a little concern, however it is still almost double the same quarter's sales in '04. The cyclical nature of the auto parts industry might keep the multiple lower than that of companies with similar growth in other industries, but at only 7.6 x earnings, this looks like a safe buy to me. I'm going to look at it a little more closely and maybe pick some up myself. Thanks, Lye.

[New-born baby]

lol are we on the same planet NB! hehe
We are if you live in the oil patch with me. lol.

[gerihearne]

congrats on the thread, nice to read your interesting stories along with your stock picks ...
i'll be a regular at this water cooler
cordially,
geri

[mrmarket]

This thread will be one of the forum's must reads...go Lye...go Lye...it's your birthday....

[Lyehopper]

I am currently out of this stock but I have traded it since The summer of 2003 and I know it pretty well.

I was looking for a 0.618% retracement ($28.38) to re-enter this stock.... But I'm ready to go ahead and jump back in.

KEEP A KEEN EYE ON THIS STOCK NOW!!!!

I'll post my new entry today.

[Lyehopper]

I always give more weight to fundamentals than to T/A, which is why I like CVGI. Just look at these numbers:
http://img49.imageshack.us/img49/2626/cvgire5bl.png


That's what I call robust growth. The fact that sales dropped by $5¾ million from Q3 to Q4 in '05 is a cause for a little concern, however it is still almost double the same quarter's sales in '04. The cyclical nature of the auto parts industry might keep the multiple lower than that of companies with similar growth in other industries, but at only 7.6 x earnings, this looks like a safe buy to me. I'm going to look at it a little more closely and maybe pick up up myself. Thanks, Lye.

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!! that pie was GOOOOOD.... "won't it" Rockin'Rob?!....lol

[Lyehopper]

I am currently out of this stock but I have traded it since The summer of 2003 and I know it pretty well.

I was looking for a 0.618% retracement ($28.38) to re-enter this stock.... But I'm ready to go ahead and jump back in.

KEEP A KEEN EYE ON THIS STOCK NOW!!!!

I'll post my new entry today.
I just took an initial position (at market).... $31.20.... I'll add shares on any pullback. I'll accumulate up to $35.

Watch for a pullback for a good entry today.

[Lyehopper]

I'm not "featuring" this stock yet but it's worth mentioning. ECOL.... It is in the same business as $$MM$$'s BEL. I have owned it a long time and I LOVE IT!

ECOL is currently breaking out of a nice cup/handle base and could go.... uuuuuuummmmm.... Well I ain't sure how high it could go. But a double from here would be SWWWWEEEEET!!!! It's up over 30% this year. It's my pick of the year in IIC's (POTY) contest (visit his thread.... it's good).

I'll "feature" it and officially "log it" when I'm adding shares.

[Lyehopper]

I just took an initial position (at market).... $31.20.... I'll add shares on any pullback. I'll accumulate up to $35.

Watch for a pullback for a good entry today.
This is when I call in the calvery.... OK fellas. I like PARL (long) I love the fundamentals and they are making money hand over fist.... But stocks don't always move streight up so a good entry is essential. And the market is flashing bearish signals at us....

I thought PARL should retrace to the low $28's.... but I entered it with a small position today @ $31.20 thinking it was gaining momentum.... only to see it pullback and develop an intraday decending triangle. TA experts! Post your opinions of PARL.

Assuming you liked it.... When would YOU enter this stock? and why?

[DSteckler]

<< Assuming you liked it.... When would YOU enter this stock? and why? >>

Above 31.75, the recent intraday highs on the 60-minute chart. I'd plan on exiting around 33.75, the 200-bar MA on this chart.

[New-born baby]

This is when I call in the calvery.... OK fellas. I like PARL (long) I love the fundamentals and they are making money hand over fist.... But stocks don't always move streight up so a good entry is essential. And the market is flashing bearish signals at us....

I thought PARL should retrace to the low $28's.... but I entered it with a small position today @ $31.20 thinking it was gaining momentum.... only to see it pullback and develop an intraday decending triangle. TA experts! Post your opinions of PARL.

Assuming you liked it.... When would YOU enter this stock? and why?

Gotta love those Virginia cowboys! Once a bull starts to buck, they start to cry! I'll take you to a real rodeo out in Cheyenne, WY sometime. LoL.

PARL: this ain't no bull, LYE. This is a bear. You want proof? I'll give you proof. 1st target: $22--lower than the chart even goes that I posted here.
2nd target: $19. Yeah, it's ugly. Look at these--
http://img458.imageshack.us/img458/9543/chart11sd.gif (http://imageshack.us)

http://img384.imageshack.us/img384/8397/file19ev.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

I'll tell you what I'd do, LYE-BABY. I would protect myself by selling calls. Forget the puts--that cost money. Sell the calls and relax. And if that neckline breaks--sell the stock, too, and get out of the way. She's a-gonna stink bad, baby. Bad.

Oh no. I just checked Yahoo and found out that PARL has no option chain. Time for another plan. Well ya know, if it ain't long, its short. Ya know what I mean, Vern?

[gerihearne]

when u get around to it, was wondering if u are still watching jah ...
no hurry, just curious, i had it on my screen for awhile after u mentioned in one of the threads, then took it off recently ... never bought it

cordially,
geri

[Lyehopper]

when u get around to it, was wondering if u are still watching jah ...
no hurry, just curious, i had it on my screen for awhile after u mentioned in one of the threads, then took it off recently ... never bought it

cordially,
geri
I still like JAH.... I own it....

[Lyehopper]

Gotta love those Virginia cowboys! Once a bull starts to buck, they start to cry! I'll take you to a real rodeo out in Cheyenne, WY sometime. LoL.

PARL: this ain't no bull, LYE. This is a bear. You want proof? I'll give you proof. 1st target: $22--lower than the chart even goes that I posted here.
2nd target: $19. Yeah, it's ugly.
LOL.... thanks NBB.... I was checking my herd last spring when my hat flew off while riding my Polaris MV-7 ATV (I must have been doing 45mph through that pasture).... I stopped abruptly, turned the bars tight, goosed that 700cc engine and spun around (doughnut style) in the pasture to go back and get it.... Those agressive tractor tires on that thing grabbed traction in an indention in the ground and quickly whipped back, catipulting me about 15 feet through the air.... Landed square on my back.... WHAM! I weigh 305 pounds.... OOOOFFFFF!!!! I was knocked out for a couple of minutes. When I came to and realized that I was alive and my back wasen't broken, I layed back down in the pasture and laughed hysterically, my cows walked over to get a better look and were gawking at me like I was crazy.... Hey fellas!!!! those darned "4-wheelers" will kill ya faster than a freakin rodeo bull!

So let me guess NB-Baby, You ain't exactly a Paris Hilton Fan?....jejeje

Thanks for the TA DUDE!!!!

OK! Who else wants to weigh in on PARL? Spike?, IIC?, Ski?, Rob?, Runner? DMK?, TFred? Jim?.... Anyone else?

Steckler.... likes it above $31.75

NewBorn.... Hates it.... PERIOD.

[New-born baby]

LOL

So let me guess NB-Baby, You ain't exactly a Paris Hilton Fan?...

Is she from VA? I don't understand how Paris Hilton fits in with . . . does she own PARL? I don't know much about her, except that she doesn't have any morals, and occasionally one of her boyfriends slaps her around.

OK! Who else wants to weigh in on PARL? Spike?, IIC?, Ski?, Rob?, Runner? DMK?, TFred? Jim?.... Anyone else?
Steckler.... likes it above $31.75

NewBorn.... Hates it.... PERIOD.

Nah, I don't hate it. I did my taxes today and I see I traded PARL 3x last year for profit. I just read charts. Half the time I buy companies that I know nothing more about them than their symbols and the fact that the chart looks good. I'll post one more PARL chart and show you that a stop would be a good thing in this case: no option chain. Uh oh Mildred!

Hey, for your sake, I hope I am dead wrong on this one. I never root against a friend. :D

Look at this chart: volume stick with the bottom edge at $30. That support has been tested twice in the past 5 days. It has held (as one would expect) but the third time and the bulls are too tired to hold the line. The volume is
running out (look at the sticks). When that $30 line fails, she falls faster, probably fairly quickly to $26 or so. And then that sets PARL up for the $22- marker.

Put a stop under it. Even Paris Hilton can't hold this one up.
http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/4483/file13eh.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

Lye we look forward to your stock picks. Needless to say you do lead an interesting llife. I hope that Mad Cow scare in Alabama did not have any affect with your beef sales. Have a great day .

Pete
So far live cattle prices are stable. Good thing about that case is: the cow never made it off the farm and into a processing plant. She was pretty old too. The beef you normally buy is only about 14-18 months old.

Monday, March 13, 2006

United States Discovers New BSE Case

Earlier today, the USDA announced that a cow in Alabama had tested positive for BSE. Further information on the herd of origin of this animal is currently being investigated. Below is a statement from the United States Department of Agriculture regarding this latest case.

Statement by USDA Chief Veterinary Officer John Clifford (DVM)

Regarding Positive BSE Test Results
March 13, 2006

“We received a positive result on a Western blot confirmatory test conducted at the USDA laboratories in Ames, Iowa, on samples from an animal that had tested “inconclusive” on a rapid screening test performed on Friday, March 10.

“The samples were taken from a non-ambulatory animal on a farm in Alabama. A local private veterinarian euthanized and sampled the animal and sent the samples for further testing, which was conducted at one of our contract diagnostic laboratories at the University of Georgia. The animal was buried on the farm and it did not enter the animal or human food chains.

“We are now working with Alabama animal health officials to conduct an epidemiological investigation to gather any further information we can on the herd of origin of this animal. The animal had only resided on the most recent farm in Alabama for less than a year.

“We will be working to locate animals from this cow’s birth cohort (animals born in the same herd within one year of the affected animal) and any offspring. We will also work with Food and Drug Administration officials to determine any feed history that may be relevant to the investigation. Experience worldwide has shown us that it is highly unusual to find BSE in more than one animal in a herd or in an affected animal’s offspring. Nevertheless, all animals of interest will be tested for BSE.

“Under USDA testing protocols, surveillance samples are sent to contract laboratories for screening tests. If the sample is found to be inconclusive on the screening test, it is then shipped to our National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) in Ames, Iowa, for an additional rapid test and two confirmatory tests: the immunohistochemistry (IHC) test, which is conducted by APHIS scientists, and the Western blot test, which is conducted by scientists with USDA’s Agricultural Research Service. USDA considers an animal positive for BSE if either of the two confirmatory tests returns a positive result.

“In this instance, the inconclusive result from the contract lab in Georgia was confirmed through a second rapid test at NVSL. Now, the Western blot test has returned a positive result, and that is sufficient for us to confirm this animal to be positive for BSE, which is why we are making this announcement today. The IHC results are still pending and we will release those results as soon as they are available, which we expect to be later this week .

“I want to emphasize that human and animal health in the United States are protected by a system of interlocking safeguards, and that we remain very confident in the safety of U.S. beef. Again, this animal did not enter the human food or animal feed chains.

“While epidemiological work to determine the animal’s precise age is just getting underway and is ongoing, the attending veterinarian has indicated that, based on dentition, it was an older animal, quite possibly upwards of 10 years of age. This would indicate that this animal would have been born prior to the implementation of the Food and Drug Administration’s 1997 feed ban. Older animals are more likely to have been exposed to contaminated feed circulating before the FDA’s 1997 ban on ruminant-to-ruminant feeding practices, which scientific research has indicated is the most likely route for BSE transmission.

“By any measure, the incidence of BSE in this country is extremely low. Our enhanced surveillance program was designed as a one-time snapshot to provide information about the level of prevalence of BSE in the United States. We have conducted surveillance in the United States since 1990 and following the initial positive in December 2003, we developed an enhanced surveillance program. Since June 2004, all sectors of the cattle industry have cooperated in this program by submitting samples from more than 640,000 animals from the highest risk populations and more than 20,000 from clinically normal, older animals, as part our enhanced BSE surveillance program. To date, including the animal in today’s announcement, only two of these highest risk animals have tested positive for the disease as part of the enhanced surveillance program.

“As we approach the conclusion of our enhanced surveillance program, let me offer a few thoughts regarding surveillance going forward. I can assure you that we will continue to base our maintenance surveillance testing on international guidelines. Though the nature and extent of maintenance surveillance has not yet been finalized, the incidence of BSE in this country remains extremely low and our interlocking safeguards are working to protect both human and animal health and we remain very confident in the safety of U.S. beef.

“As we move forward with the epidemiological investigation that has been initiated today into this case of BSE, we will continue to be very transparent in sharing information with the public and with our trading partners around the world.”

[New-born baby]

Speaking of Paris, after you brought her up, Lye-baby, I Googled "Paris Hilton bullriding" to see if I could get a picture for you, and I turned up this:

Paris Hilton in 50 years (http://www.i-am-bored.com/bored_link.cfm?link_id=13367)

PARL chart--ugly as it is--looks better.

[Lyehopper]

Is she from VA? I don't understand how Paris Hilton fits in with . . . does she own PARL? I don't know much about her, except that she doesn't have any morals, and occasionally one of her boyfriends slaps her around.

Nope she ain't from VA.

PARL's hottest selling perfume is her brand. And you owned this stock last year?.... You really don't research the companies you buy do ya dude? I thought you did FA and product research and all kinds of dd.... Well.... I've seen you right many many times so I ain't discounting what you've offered here....Thanks!

btw.... great short in the POTW!!!!

[Lyehopper]

Speaking of Paris, after you brought her up, Lye-baby, I Googled "Paris Hilton bullriding" to see if I could get a picture for you, and I turned up this:

Paris Hilton in 50 years (http://www.i-am-bored.com/bored_link.cfm?link_id=13367)

PARL chart--ugly as it is--looks better.

LOL!!!! LOL!!!!woooohoooo!!!!

[New-born baby]

Nope she ain't from VA.

PARL's hottest selling perfume is her brand. And you owned this stock last year?.... You really don't research the companies you buy do ya dude? I thought you did FA and product research and all kinds of dd.... Well.... I've seen you right many many times so I ain't discounting what you've offered here....Thanks!

btw.... great short in the POTW!!!!

DD? ME?! NAW! If I want FA I just ask Jiesen. That guy can crunch numbers so good and so fast, why, I couldn't even type in the symbol but that he has all the work done. "Why buy the cow when the milk is free?"

[spikefader]

This is when I call in the calvery.... OK fellas. I like PARL (long) I love the fundamentals and they are making money hand over fist.... But stocks don't always move streight up so a good entry is essential. And the market is flashing bearish signals at us....

I thought PARL should retrace to the low $28's.... but I entered it with a small position today @ $31.20 thinking it was gaining momentum.... only to see it pullback and develop an intraday decending triangle. TA experts! Post your opinions of PARL.

Assuming you liked it.... When would YOU enter this stock? and why?PARL: ah, what an enigma it is dude. Here is the short setup I posted a couple weeks ago somewhere that caught the +11% short in a day: http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/8956/parlshortmar88mw.jpg

And looking at the daily today, I must say that I'm neutral considering all things. The weekly is another matter all together. What a fine chart. I see the bullish bias, but with the daily so iffy right now, I'd have to give a neutral bias for it, with strong recommendation you put a stop where marked on the daily. There will be other times for a long if that fails. It has a chance for a run to 44.00 if it can hold these levels. Do or die dude. Good luck.

http://img104.imageshack.us/img104/4372/parlmar213og.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/4961/parlweeklymar219oq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

PARL: ah, what an enigma it is dude. Here is the short setup I posted a couple weeks ago somewhere that caught the +11% short in a day: http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/8956/parlshortmar88mw.jpg

And looking at the daily today, I must say that I'm neutral considering all things. The weekly is another matter all together. What a fine chart. I see the bullish bias, but with the daily so iffy right now, I'd have to give a neutral bias for it, with strong recommendation you put a stop where marked on the daily. There will be other times for a long if that fails. It has a chance for a run to 44.00 if it can hold these levels. Do or die dude. Good luck.


Great call on that SHS Spike. I was hoping for a retracement to around $28 to buy back in. The big thing with PARL is it's earnings and sales growth are awesome. BUT.... there is a heavy short interest too. Once it finally does make it's solid move I think it will rise past $50..... But hey NBB could be right too.... it might start that run from $19.LOL

I'll hold my initial position for now and watch it closely. If I add shares I'll post. If I dump it I'll post.

Thanks fellas for the input.... Here's how it stands for PARL

Lyehopper... Bullish
Steckler...... Cautiously bullish (wants to see 31.75 hold)
NB-Baby...... Bearish
Spikefader.... Neutral to bullish

[DSteckler]

Lye, change me to neutral and bearish if PARL closes below its 200DMA.

[Lyehopper]

Lye, first let me say how much I like your short bias for NRPH. Cool lookin' channel bust in Feb, followed today with a symmetrical triangle breakdown. That's good for perhaps a target of 24.00; what's that...22% profit for you. Good luck with it dude.
Ah huh! Of course! :) And I do hate to put a TA downer on your first pick dude; so I apologize!! I'll throw it at ya just as a headsup and I'll await a bust of those patterns before I get warm and fuzzy about it hehe

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/7969/cvgimar21c1ny.jpg (http://imageshack.us/)

It's similar in many ways to that dog PACT hehe which I note has still failed to perform and I'm wondering when it'll give up and drop to 3.00 like I expect it to. Stubborn thing! must have OK fundies hehehe Do you still like that one?

Best to ya.
Spike.... I still watch PACT but I haven't traded a long time. It does have pretty strong fundamentals, but it's stuck in the mud. I would be interested in a little position @ $7.00 (insiders bought it down there last year).... It would be one you'd have to be willing hold long term though.

[Adman]

Spike.... I still watch PACT but I haven't traded a long time. It does have pretty strong fundamentals, but it's stuck in the mud. I would be interested in a little position @ $7.00 (insiders bought it down there last year).... It would be one you'd have to be willing hold long term though.

There are too many better stocks to choose over Pacificanet. You are right, the fundies are OK, but there is not enough to compell me, (or a lot of others, apparently), to go in.
Take a look at OPTC, ANTP or ARRS. All look like they can bring you back some decent returns.

DISCLOSURE: I am long in OPTC.

[Lyehopper]

There are too many better stocks to choose over Pacificanet. You are right, the fundies are OK, but there is not enough to compell me, (or a lot of others, apparently), to go in.
Take a look at OPTC, ANTP or ARRS. All look like they can bring you back some decent returns.

DISCLOSURE: I am long in OPTC.
Thanks ADman........ I'll check em out.

[teflon]

Sorry to hijack this thread but I've been meaning to ask this for a while...excuse the stupidity of my first post on this forum, that is if the answer happens to be very obvious:

How are you displaying the volume off the side of your charts? Is this option supported in the free charting? It's damn handy.

Thanks.

[Lyehopper]

GEHL is a stock that I have held for some time. My average cost is in the mid $20's.... But I added shares today up to $31.46 so I will use $31.46 as my trade log figure. GEHL manufactures construction and farm machinery. You want the "next JLG"?.... I just gave it to ya.

[DSteckler]

Take a look at the weekly chart on GEHL, Lye. Cup and handle.

[IIC]

Sorry to hijack this thread but I've been meaning to ask this for a while...excuse the stupidity of my first post on this forum, that is if the answer happens to be very obvious:

How are you displaying the volume off the side of your charts? Is this option supported in the free charting? It's damn handy.

Thanks.

I just logged off and used freecharts...yes it worked...click Vol By Price...IIC

[Lyehopper]

Take a look at the weekly chart on GEHL, Lye. Cup and handle.
Yep.... I like to read weekly charts over daily charts Dave. GEHL is RIPE!

Look at the weekly on NRPH. Notice the volume increase and "churn" over the past few weeks.... Any sucker rally on this thing is a good short entry.... This suka's gonna fall.

[Lyehopper]

I took this little pullback on profit taking and added shares to one of my favorite stocks..... and thus I introduce my #5 HUUUGE pick....
ECOL (long) @ $20.00....

[Gatorman]

Lyehopper:
Am looking forward to your new thread. Am especially interested in the rationale you use for your picks.

[Lyehopper]

PARL: ah, what an enigma it is dude. Here is the short setup I posted a couple weeks ago somewhere that caught the +11% short in a day: http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/8956/parlshortmar88mw.jpg

Hey Spike I just figured out why I never saw that short setup on PARL that you "posted somewhere".... You posted it on what, March 7th?.... On your Blog. You "neglected" to post it here on $$Mr Markets$$$'s HUUUGE forum dude. SO the hundreds of people that would normally have benifited from that fine TA probibly missed it just like I did. What gives dude?

[Lyehopper]

Here are my open "featured" positions.

NOTE: I have actual positions in all the stocks I "feature" on this thread.... Stay tuned!.... More to come.

http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/3340/roundup322063dn.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Lye-baby,
That GEHL chart looks great. Just wish they had an option chain.

PARL: right at the 200 day and the price by volume support. Topping tails two days in a row. Very low volume today=a lot of people on the sidelines waiting for PARL to show which direction it is really going to go. I can feel the suspense! :D

http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/8905/file13wr.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Here's a look at PARL's momo to BBD and MYGN:
momo comparo (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=45767&postcount=92)

[Gatorman]

Here are my open "featured" positions.

NOTE: I have actual positions in all the stocks I "feature" on this thread.... Stay tuned!.... More to come.

http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/3340/roundup322063dn.png (http://imageshack.us)
Lye:
Perhaps I missed it somewhere but I did not see a comment regarding the total
number of stocks you plan to include in your portfolio. Do you have a projected number?

[Lyehopper]

Lye:
Perhaps I missed it somewhere but I did not see a comment regarding the total
number of stocks you plan to include in your portfolio. Do you have a projected number?
Well I have been known to hold 15 (or more) positions in my personal portfolio. Some I will feature here and some I won't. I would estimate having a max of about ten open positions or less featured here at a time. I hope to start posting "closed positions" pretty soon.... and hopefully they are for a gain.lol

[Gatorman]

Well I have been known to hold 15 (or more) positions in my personal portfolio. Some I will feature here and some I won't. I would estimate having a max of about ten open positions or less featured here at a time. I hope to start posting "closed positions" pretty soon.... and hopefully they are for a gain.lol
Thanks. Will keep tuned in for the other choices.
Am especially interested in what you chose to short. That is an area that I have tread only lightly over the years and am not yet at a comfort level with shorting.
I, also, try not to hold more than 10 positions since I find it very difficult to keep track of more than 10 at a time with the type of in-depth review I think is necessary.

[Lyehopper]

Thanks. Will keep tuned in for the other choices.
Am especially interested in what you chose to short. That is an area that I have tread only lightly over the years and am not yet at a comfort level with shorting.
I, also, try not to hold more than 10 positions since I find it very difficult to keep track of more than 10 at a time with the type of in-depth review I think is necessary.
I hold some stocks that I'll not touch for a very long time. For example the local (regional) bank that I do business with.... I own a pretty good chunk of it. They are publically traded but volume is very thin. I buy all my shares directly from insiders. I own large positions in some other thinly traded stocks that I won't mention here for obvious reasons. And the others I'll keep to myself are just too boring for this HUUUGE forum.lol

BUT.... another stock I already own is lookin' really good to me.... and I might add shares today. Just depends.... If I do add shares I'll feature it.

[Gatorman]

I hold some stocks that I'll not touch for a very long time. For example the local (regional) bank that I do business with.... I own a pretty good chunk of it. They are publically traded but volume is very thin. I buy all my shares directly from insiders. I own large positions in some other thinly traded stocks that I won't mention here for obvious reasons. And the others I'll keep to myself are just too boring for this HUUUGE forum.lol

BUT.... another stock I already own is lookin' really good to me.... and I might add shares today. Just depends.... If I do add shares I'll feature it.
What I was referring to was my trading portfolio. I also hold some stocks that are "buy and hold" type investments as opposed to "trading" stocks.
The trading stocks have to be closely monitored but the other, as a general rule, do not have to be given that type of scrutiny.

[Lyehopper]

What I was referring to was my trading portfolio. I also hold some stocks that are "buy and hold" type investments as opposed to "trading" stocks.
The trading stocks have to be closely monitored but the other, as a general rule, do not have to be given that type of scrutiny.
Yeah Gator I'm about the same as you dude. I can only watch about ten "trading stocks" at a time.... or less.

[Lyehopper]

Well I just added shares of JAH @ $32.95.... I really love JAH.... They make crock pots!!!! (and a zillion other things you use every day) How can ya go wrong with crock pots?!!!! http://www.jardencorp.com

Did you fellas know that you can make YOUR VERY OWN GoJi brandy in a simple crock pot?.... well SURE YA CAN!!!!.... NOW just try to tell me this thread ain't educational....lol

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/8458/still0gz.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://www.happymountain.net

[dmk112]

I bought CVGI today and the highest I paid was $19.10 (I'll use $19.10 on my thread trade log).... My POTW entry was $18.98.

Tell me what you think.... Do you hate or love it?.... Do you think TA says good or bad entry? Let me hear it.... What do you think of this companies fundamentals?

I don't see anything in it, why did you buy it?

[Lyehopper]

Well fellas.... I'm off to see....

http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/263/gt0vn.png (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

A light hidden under a basket is of no use. Hey Spike I just figured out why I never saw that short setup on PARL that you "posted somewhere".... You posted it on what, March 7th?.... On your Blog. You "neglected" to post it here on $$Mr Markets$$$'s HUUUGE forum dude. SO the hundreds of people that would normally have benifited from that fine TA probibly missed it just like I did. What gives dude?yeah, but Lye, ya gotta lift the basket up! :D

But seriously, I think at the time I posted the PARL short setup I was pressed for time is all.

Give me your email address and I'll add it to the distribution list so you get an email for every post dude.

[Lyehopper]

I don't see anything in it, why did you buy it?
Because they make alot of money and I think it will go up.... Why would you NOT buy it?

[New-born baby]

How are you displaying the volume off the side of your charts? Is this option supported in the free charting? CENSORED CENSORED CENSORED.

Thanks.
Teflon--
I think Lye-baby missed your post, so I'll answer. :D
1. go here to Stockcharts (http://stockcharts.com/)
2. Enter a symbol--how about PARL?
3. Under the chart, you'll have options of what indicators you want to use.
Use "price by volume"
http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/3404/chart18lj.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Rob]

Give me your email address and I'll add it to the distribution list so you get an email for every post dude.Spike, trust me, that wouldn't help. :)

[Websman]

Great thread Lye!

Just as I expected, I made some profound discoveries that I will be incorporating into the VTP. Also, a European expnsion is a possibility.

[mimo_100]

Hey Lye,



I’m working my way through the new SharpCharts2 update at StockCharts.



Since we both own PARL, I thought I would see what the “Area” Chart Attribute looked like versus the “Candlestick” we normally use. It is a lot easier to spot a head and shoulders. What do you think?



Tim




http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/5892/parl20060324area4ej.jpg

[Websman]

I bought PARL yesterday at 31.05. Today is looking encouraging. :)

[Lyehopper]

Spike, trust me, that wouldn't help. :)
I gave Spike my email Rob.... what?.... You know by experience that I don't check my email right?....hehehe....

I like to read Spike's "stuff".... fuzzy or not.je....je.... I just like it over HERE.lol.... But I think I understand what he's thinkin' and I guess if I put as much energy into something like he has in his charts and setups and stuff that I'd want it organized in a nice consolidated place too. I just didn't want him to forsake the forum because of some member "personality conflicts" that tend to happen on a public forum like this.... I don't think he will. Plus, he don't want me to send Webs after him.

btw.... adding GEHL

[Lyehopper]

Hey Lye,

I’m working my way through the new SharpCharts2 update at StockCharts.

Since we both own PARL, I thought I would see what the “Area” Chart Attribute looked like versus the “Candlestick” we normally use. It is a lot easier to spot a head and shoulders. What do you think?

Tim
Hey Tim.... I don't think a SHS pattern is an issue in PARL's chart dude. I don't see a serious breakdown.... Remember why it retraced in the first place.... a "non event" imo.

It seems to have found support @ the MA 200.... If it breaks that it should bounce pretty quickly off the 0.618% fib retracement line (around $28.32).

btw.... what size is that chart you posted dude?.... Karel's gonna pound you over that HUUUUGE thing.lol Try to keep it 700 pixels or less (wide). If they are too big they crowd $$MM$$'s sponsers advertisements off the side of the screen.... And we can't have that. You know how HUUUUGELY important that "penny stock report" is now don'tcha?....jejeje

[Adman]

I bought PARL yesterday at 31.05. Today is looking encouraging. :)

Interesting looking company. Everything I read about it was good. How does the VTP like it? From what I can see, about 12 analyst are on it, with half of them putting strong buys on it with rest putting out buys.

[Lyehopper]

I bought PARL yesterday at 31.05. Today is looking encouraging. :)
Looks like a good entry Webs!

[Websman]

Interesting looking company. Everything I read about it was good. How does the VTP like it? From what I can see, about 12 analyst are on it, with half of them putting strong buys on it with rest putting out buys.

Yes, PARL is very interesting, especially considering the fact that this company is associated with Paris Hilton. Of course, Paris has nothing to do with the companies fundamentals, but the fact that she is involved does, to a certain degree, have an affect on this stock. Therefore, I had to incorporate this into the VTP vectors, in order to obtain an accurate assessment of the future price action.

I ran quite a few variables through the system and came up with almost the same result each time. On average PARL had a very high ranking, although it does show that there may possibly be some more price volatility in the short term, before we see a trend upwards towards my $40 short term and $65 long term targets.

I am keeping an eye on the short term indicators for any possible sell off conditions, in order to maximize profits. I sold PARL before I went on vacation at $31.41, knowing that I would be able to buy it back two weeks later at a lower price. I bought back in yesterday at $31.05. Of course the VTP indicators were showing a possible retracement to $29. If I hadn't been out of the country, I would have taken advantage of that price point. I usually go cash when I'm out of town.

I will probably hold my position through next week, as it is possible that the indicators may turn even more positive, indicating that the price is ready to make a quick return to the upper 30 range as a result of short covering, especially considering the large amount of short interest in PARL.

[IIC]

Interesting looking company. Everything I read about it was good. How does the VTP like it? From what I can see, about 12 analyst are on it, with half of them putting strong buys on it with rest putting out buys.

Actually I sorta...kinda...like PARL for the future...But Adman...You've been around...Do you listen to analysts?...In many cases I consider them a contrary indicator...Afterall...Don't you have to flunk a test to become an Analyst??? ...LOL

[Lyehopper]

Yes, PARL is very interesting, especially considering the fact that this company is associated with Paris Hilton. Of course, Paris has nothing to do with the companies fundamentals, but the fact that she is involved does, to a certain degree, have an affect on this stock. Therefore, I had to incorporate this into the VTP vectors, in order to obtain an accurate assessment of the future price action.

I ran quite a few variables through the system and came up with almost the same result each time. On average PARL had a very high ranking, although it does show that there may possibly be some more price volatility in the short term, before we see a trend upwards towards my $40 short term and $65 long term targets.

I am keeping an eye on the short term indicators for any possible sell off conditions, in order to maximize profits. I sold PARL before I went on vacation at $31.41, knowing that I would be able to buy it back two weeks later at a lower price. I bought back in yesterday at $31.05. Of course the VTP indicators were showing a possible retracement to $29. If I hadn't been out of the country, I would have taken advantage of that price point. I usually go cash when I'm out of town.

I will probably hold my position through next week, as it is possible that the indicators may turn even more positive, indicating that the price is ready to make a quick return to the upper 30 range as a result of short covering, especially considering the large amount of short interest in PARL.
Now fellas!!!! that's what I call an analysis!!!!

VTP FOREVER!!!!
WOOOOO-HOOOOOO!!!!

WEBSMAN!!!! YOU ARE HUUUUGE!!!!

[Lyehopper]

Here are my open "featured" positions.

Note: I hold actual positions in the "Featured" stocks on this thread.

http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/9826/roundup324064kk.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Don't you have to flunk a test to become an Analyst??? ...LOL

Why, of course! Haven't you ever heard the expression, "If you can't do, teach. And if you can't teach, then teach teachers?" If you can't trade, become an analyst. And if you can't become an analyst, work for the SEC. :D

[Websman]

Here are my open "featured" positions.

Note: I hold actual positions in the "Featured" stocks on this thread.



http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/9826/roundup324064kk.png (http://imageshack.us/)



Well done Lyehpper. I'm thinking of buying a couple of those myself.

[Lyehopper]

Well done Lyehpper. I'm thinking of buying a couple of those myself.
Just don't buy that last one dude.lol

[dmk112]

Because they make alot of money and I think it will go up.... Why would you NOT buy it?

Not all companies that make money go up, as a matter of fact alot of them go down. Right now it's a hold for me, the stock has gone no where in over a year and a half. I just think there are others out there that are more bullish. IMO

NICE THREAD THOUGH, KEEP IT UP DUDE.

[dmk112]

I do like JAH as it broke the downtrend.
NRPH still may have some legs left.
ECOL - cwh play?
GEHL - not much there, in a trading range right now.
PARL - may be hurt for a while

good luck dude.

[Lyehopper]

Not all companies that make money go up, as a matter of fact alot of them go down. Right now it's a hold for me, the stock has gone no where in over a year and a half. I just think there are others out there that are more bullish. IMO

NICE THREAD THOUGH, KEEP IT UP DUDE.
Thanks for reading the thread DMK.

Well, it's been my experience over the past 17 years that most stocks go "UP" and "DOWN". Stocks that are growing and make money just appeal to me that's all.... Call me crazy and "old fasioned" but if (For EXAMPLE) I were gonna invest in your's or Ernie's or Rob's or Ski's or Web's* private companies?.... I'd want to see the earnings and sales growth. Why would I look at buying a publicly traded company any differently?

I agree that there are many more "bullish" charts out there. I wasn't necessarily looking for bullish charts though. I'm looking for stocks that are worth alot more than they cost at the present time.... and ones that (next year) you'll be saying.... WOW!!!! look at that bullish chart! that thing is up over 60% in the past six months DUDE!!!!

What stocks are you buying DMK?....

oh btw.... I'm short NRPH and it has a pretty bullish chart.lol

*I might invest in Web's private company reguardless of the possibility for profitability.... why did I type this?.... must be that microchip he implanted in my brain.jeje....hic.je....errrrrrr.jeje,oui

[dmk112]

What stocks are you buying DMK?....




For one, I like CPST. (Don't look at the fundies LOL).

Here's the chart. I posted this back in Feb aniticapting a b/o but it took a while.

http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/6702/cpstdaily032606triangle6nk.png

[Lyehopper]

For one, I like CPST. (Don't look at the fundies LOL).

Here's the chart. I posted this back in Feb aniticapting a b/o but it took a while.

http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/6702/cpstdaily032606triangle6nk.png
You are right DMK. The fundamentals do SUCK!

BUT.... They have one of the coolest products I've seen lately! I LIKE IT DUDE.... I'd love to own about fifty of those generators. I'd run them in series and start my own little (modular) power company.LOL They will run off Bio-Diesel or Diesel#2.... Wonder it they could build one that'll run on ethanol?..... hmmmmmmmm.

Boy! Too bad I can't buy some of this company for what it worth... 0.78 cents per share.hehehe

You might be on to something here dude, chart looks great.

[Lyehopper]

The more dd I do on this product the more I like it.LOL

I'm gonna call these guys on Monday and get a quote on a system to run my MFG Company on.... The turbine exhaust gases (heat) can be captured and used for both heating and cooling of the facility! Any excess electricity gererated can be sold to the utility company and THEY MUST BUY IT FROM YOU AT CURRENT RATES!!!! AWESOME!!!! These guys even have a system running at a huge pig-farm....LOL.... They capture the methane gases from the manure, compress it and burn it in two of these capstone mircoturbine gererators and make their own power and they capture the exhaust (gases) heat and further use it as well.... Why have I never heard of this product?

This will be HUUUUGE some day!

[Websman]

*I might invest in Web's private company reguardless of the possibility for profitability.... why did I type this?.... must be that microchip he implanted in my brain.jeje....hic.je....errrrrrr.jeje,oui

Lye, I'll need $250,000 by Friday, in order to conduct more VTP research.

[dmk112]

The more dd I do on this product the more I like it.LOL

I'm gonna call these guys on Monday and get a quote on a system to run my MFG Company on.... The turbine exhaust gases (heat) can be captured and used for both heating and cooling of the facility! Any excess electricity gererated can be sold to the utility company and THEY MUST BUY IT FROM YOU AT CURRENT RATES!!!! AWESOME!!!! These guys even have a system running at a huge pig-farm....LOL.... They capture the methane gases from the manure, compress it and burn it in two of these capstone mircoturbine gererators and make their own power and they capture the exhaust (gases) heat and further use it as well.... Why have I never heard of this product?

This will be HUUUUGE some day!

CPST is one of those companies that went to a $100+ in the tech bubble and then became a near penny stock. I bet there are some that are still holding from those levels too, poor chaps.

[IIC]

The more dd I do on this product the more I like it.LOL

I'm gonna call these guys on Monday and get a quote on a system to run my MFG Company on.... The turbine exhaust gases (heat) can be captured and used for both heating and cooling of the facility! Any excess electricity gererated can be sold to the utility company and THEY MUST BUY IT FROM YOU AT CURRENT RATES!!!! AWESOME!!!! These guys even have a system running at a huge pig-farm....LOL.... They capture the methane gases from the manure, compress it and burn it in two of these capstone mircoturbine gererators and make their own power and they capture the exhaust (gases) heat and further use it as well.... Why have I never heard of this product?

This will be HUUUUGE some day!

Not as hot a deal as it sounds Lye...I managed a Bank Data Center from 1985-1992...It was a co-gen plant built in 1983...12.6mw capacity with 3 Alison 501's and 2 Murray Steamers rated 1.8mw each...2 1600 Ton absorbers with 3 Tane 750 ton centrifigals as back up...Anyway, there was a huge legal battle between the Utility and the Bank after I left...(No...it wasn't my fault)...But besides that, the maintenance costs after a few years was cost prohibitive...and it was not as reliable as everyone thought before my time who was sold a bill of goods....Doug

[Lyehopper]

Not as hot a deal as it sounds Lye...I managed a Bank Data Center from 1985-1992...It was a co-gen plant built in 1983...12.6mw capacity with 3 Alison 501's and 2 Murray Steamers rated 1.8mw each...2 1600 Ton absorbers with 3 Tane 750 ton centrifigals as back up...Anyway, there was a huge legal battle between the Utility and the Bank after I left...(No...it wasn't my fault)...But besides that, the maintenance costs after a few years was cost prohibitive...and it was not as reliable as everyone thought before my time who was sold a bill of goods....DougHey IIC, I know about co-gen plants and have knowledge basic electric power generation.... My father worked for Carolina Power and Light (now PGN) for 36 years....

You guys were using very old technology dude.... This company didn't start till 1998.... Have you seen one of these MicroTurbine Gernerators?.... One (1) moving part and NO oil or wet bearings AT ALL.... You run smaller generators in a "bank" (in series).... Trust me.... I'll find out if it's a "hot deal" or not dude.... http://www.capstoneturbine.com (http://www.capstoneturbine.com/)

[Lyehopper]

Lye, I'll need $250,000 by Friday, in order to conduct more VTP research.
Just wired the money.... Our "people" should have the "PH" implant installation finished by this time next week dude.... VTP R&D funding will be practically limitless after that.

[Gatorman]

Lyehopper:
Nice moves today in all of your stocks with PARL leading the group. It will be interesting to see what they do the rest of the week.

[New-born baby]

PARL is over the hump with today's action. A profitable stop under it and Lye-baby is guaranteed $$$.

[Lyehopper]

Thanks fellas.... I agree that PARL is lookin' ready to roll. My short play is still "red" but I hope that'll soon change. Let's see how things shape up from here.

btw... I hope to add a position to the portfolio this week.... It very well may be a short play too.

http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/9492/roundup327066ul.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Websman]

Thanks fellas.... I agree that PARL is lookin' ready to roll. My short play is still "red" but I hope that'll soon change. Let's see how things shape up from here.

btw... I hope to add a position to the portfolio this week.... It very well may be a short play too.



http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/9492/roundup327066ul.png (http://imageshack.us/)
Nice work! The profits are going to be huge this year. The hard part is trying to figure out what to do with all the money. jejeje

[Lyehopper]

I just shorted SIRF @ $36.50.... I think it could retrace to $22.... We'll see.

[New-born baby]

I just shorted SIRF @ $36.50.... I think it could retrace to $22.... We'll see.

Just looked at the chart. You are a little early--anticipating the big drop?--but I think SIRF is sick and headed south. The chart looks just like BBD: head and shoulders, and almost ready to break the neck. Now what tomorrow SIRF open $1 lower like BBD did. If neck at $36 breaks, we're look for $28. Where did you get $22?

[Lyehopper]

Just looked at the chart. You are a little early--anticipating the big drop?--but I think SIRF is sick and headed south. The chart looks just like BBD: head and shoulders, and almost ready to break the neck. Now what tomorrow SIRF open $1 lower like BBD did. If neck at $36 breaks, we're look for $28. Where did you get $22?
Here's how I got the $22 target NBB....

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/2808/sirf2bs.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Gatorman]

Just looked at the chart. You are a little early--anticipating the big drop?--but I think SIRF is sick and headed south. The chart looks just like BBD: head and shoulders, and almost ready to break the neck. Now what tomorrow SIRF open $1 lower like BBD did. If neck at $36 breaks, we're look for $28. Where did you get $22?
NBB:
Money flow looks terrible. If it breaks the 50 day at 35.60, it could certainly drop hard. Not sure it will fill that gap.
I still have trouble seeing a head and shoulders. Where do you draw the neckline?

[New-born baby]

NBB:
Money flow looks terrible. If it breaks the 50 day at 35.60, it could certainly drop hard. Not sure it will fill that gap.
I still have trouble seeing a head and shoulders. Where do you draw the neckline?

Here's a chart.
Note there is a major formation--head and shoulders--and a minor formation (the "M"). The "M" formation gives us a short target of $33. The Head and Shoulders targets just $28. A retracement all the way down to $22 is not seen via any chart formation: weekly or daily. Lye is using the Fib--that may be right. As always, we have to wait and see. :D
http://img133.imageshack.us/img133/4887/chart16os.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Gatorman]

GEHL continues to look good even though CAT did not. GEHL might end up being the best of them all.
PARL also continues to show promise.

[peanuts]

Lyehopper,

Are you familiar with Market America? I ran into a guy in the airport and his son is trying to introduce me to the system. Can you tell me anymore about it? I am only asking because of your Goji comment attached to all your messages.

Thanks

[New-born baby]

GEHL continues to look good even though CAT did not. GEHL might end up being the best of them all.
PARL also continues to show promise.

PARL's promise may not be as promising as you might think. I took a closeup of the last couple of days of PARL's price movement, and you can see that PARL made a bearish engulfing candle. That hints at a reversal.

Bearish Engulfing Candle w/ Paris Hilton (http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/1971/file28gy.png)

Read this quote about how long it takes Paris Hilton to make her grand entrance . . . .

Bearish Confirmation
Bearish reversal patterns can form with one or more candlesticks; most require bearish confirmation. The actual reversal indicates that selling pressure overwhelmed buying pressure for one or more days, but it remains unclear whether or not sustained selling or lack of buyers will continue to push prices lower. Without confirmation, many of these patterns would be considered neutral and merely indicate a potential resistance level at best. Bearish confirmation means further downside follow through, such as a gap down, long black candlestick or high volume decline. Because candlestick patterns are short-term and usually effective for 1-2 weeks, bearish confirmation should come within 1-3 days.

read it for yourself here (http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlestickbearreversal1.html)

Having said that, the Point and Figure chart has a price target of $19 (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=PARL,P)

[Lyehopper]

Lyehopper,

Are you familiar with Market America? I ran into a guy in the airport and his son is trying to introduce me to the system. Can you tell me anymore about it? I am only asking because of your Goji comment attached to all your messages.

Thanks
Peanuts.... I have no idea what Market America is.... and I have never actually seen nor eaten a GoJi. I did however find a place that will sell me GoJi plants if I ever want to attempt growing me some....

The "GoJi thing" is a joke left over from an old thread started by a spammer back last year. If you dig back several pages into the old threads you might find it.

[Lyehopper]

PARL's promise may not be as promising as you might think. I took a closeup of the last couple of days of PARL's price movement, and you can see that PARL made a bearish engulfing candle. That hints at a reversal.

Bearish Confirmation
Bearish reversal patterns can form with one or more candlesticks; most require bearish confirmation. The actual reversal indicates that selling pressure overwhelmed buying pressure for one or more days, but it remains unclear whether or not sustained selling or lack of buyers will continue to push prices lower. Without confirmation, many of these patterns would be considered neutral and merely indicate a potential resistance level at best. Bearish confirmation means further downside follow through, such as a gap down, long black candlestick or high volume decline. Because candlestick patterns are short-term and usually effective for 1-2 weeks, bearish confirmation should come within 1-3 days.
I'm not sure what it'll do yet either. At what point would you be bullish on PARL?

[New-born baby]

I'm not sure what it'll do yet either. At what point would you be bullish on PARL?


Basically, when the chart says so. That is not right now. You may have noticed that the red stick Tuesday was much taller than the black volume stick Wednesday. It moved up on lower volume; it sold off on higher than avg. volume. That's bearish.

I am just saying that you would do well to protect yourself with stops. No option chain is available for any kind of hedging. So you have to be wise here or you could lose money.

[Gatorman]

Basically, when the chart says so. That is not right now. You may have noticed that the red stick Tuesday was much taller than the black volume stick Wednesday. It moved up on lower volume; it sold off on higher than avg. volume. That's bearish.

I am just saying that you would do well to protect yourself with stops. No option chain is available for any kind of hedging. So you have to be wise here or you could lose money.
While it's ultimate direction has certain questions, it has shown a 3.81% gain in 2 weeks.

[Lyehopper]

Basically, when the chart says so. That is not right now. You may have noticed that the red stick Tuesday was much taller than the black volume stick Wednesday. It moved up on lower volume; it sold off on higher than avg. volume. That's bearish.

I am just saying that you would do well to protect yourself with stops. No option chain is available for any kind of hedging. So you have to be wise here or you could lose money.
I'm with ya dude.... I've traded this stock for a long time and it can dump on you mighty fast.... and it can zoom on you while your back is turned too. If you like PARL It pays to have only a small percentage of your portfolio exposed it.

Remember the short interest if outragously high in PARL. That can be a two edged sword.

ALL THOSE WHO READ THIS THREAD ALSO REMEMBER.... I may sell and or cover part of.... or all of any position I own and fail to post it here in real time. So don't use my model as a real life guide.

[Websman]

I'm with ya dude.... I've traded this stock for a long time and it can dump on you mighty fast.... and it can zoom on you while your back is turned too. If you like PARL It pays to have only a small percentage of your portfolio exposed it.

Remember the short interest if outragously high in PARL. That can be a two edged sword.

ALL THOSE WHO READ THIS THREAD ALSO REMEMBER.... I may sell and or cover part of.... or all of any position I own and fail to post it here in real time. So don't use my model as a real life guide.

I sold my PARL this morning...too bad, I could have got a little more out of it.

If I'm patient I should be able to catch another drop, in order to profit once again. I love the volatility this stock has. I've made a nice profit two times in a row, in just a matter of a couple of weeks.

Will she drop tomorrow? Only the VTP knows...jejeje

[Lyehopper]

I sold my PARL this morning...too bad, I could have got a little more out of it.

If I'm patient I should be able to catch another drop, in order to profit once again. I love the volatility this stock has. I've made a nice profit two times in a row, in just a matter of a couple of weeks.

Will she drop tomorrow? Only the VTP knows...jejeje
Looks like you made a wise move Websman.... Well Sir.... seems that I've got one star on my list. The others ain't exactly shinnin' quite yet.jejeje

http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/958/mygehl0dt.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Maybe you can get Spike to draw up a short scenario for PARL . . . .

[spikefader]

Hey Lye and NB,

PARL lovers may not like this hehe, but here are a few thoughts on PARL versus EFA, which I'm long and green, and superdooper bullish on at the moment. At stockcharts you can get the ratio chart between/relative to 2 issues.......neat huh?!

Anyway, these charts suggest that maybe a short PARL long EFA combo would leverage some magic.


http://img118.imageshack.us/img118/7804/efaparlapril45kh.gif (http://imageshack.us)

But looking at PARL all alone, I see it had a channel long yesterday, which was confirmed by a 5-minute tweezer pattern. The hard stop for that play was 31.30, which got cut like wet paperbag on volume this morning.

In my humble opinion I think it's about to show us some bearishness, and thus I caution longs to exit now and wait for brighter days, or hedge for when 28.82 fails. But I do still think PARL's weekly is strong, so it's yet to get into serious bother. In my view 28.00 is a MUST hold area. If it doesn't, say hello to potential for 19.00 pretty quick.

Congrats on GEHL Lye! I think that's goin' to 41.00ish within the next 3 weeks or so. Consider profit-taking the upper weekly channel tag though.

Good luck, and keep postin'!

[Lyehopper]

Thanks Spike.... I have shed most of my PARL shares and hold only a very small position now (I won't close it out and chalk it up to a loss [here] till I'm 100% out though). I'm not so bullish on it presently and wouldn't add shares right now. I do however think that after it finishes retracing that it'll be a hot long play.

GEHL is a great company and has a lot of upside potential. Up another 4% this morning and volume is increasing pretty good too. Any pull back now is a buying opportunity imo.

HEY SPIKE! Run me something on my two short plays! I'd really like your opinion dude!

Anyone elso want to kick in and post a chart on NRPH and SIRF (short)....????
Ski?.... Runner?.... NBB?.... Rob?.... Anyone?

[Lyehopper]

GEHL is a great company and has a lot of upside potential. Up another 4% this morning and volume is increasing pretty good too. Any pull back now is a buying opportunity imo.
GELH is now up 8.5% AGAIN !!!!.... HUUUUGE!!!! Wish I had played it in the POTW..... DOH!!!! Was lookin' for a pullback to enter it.lol

[spikefader]

Congrats on GEHL dude. I knew I liked that for a reason hehe. It's gonna hit 41.00 today and not 3 weeks lol

Awesome call Lye.

[spikefader]

HEY SPIKE! Run me something on my two short plays! I'd really like your opinion dude!

Anyone elso want to kick in and post a chart on NRPH and SIRF (short)....????
Ski?.... Runner?.... NBB?.... Rob?.... Anyone?Sure dude. SIRF and NRPH huh...

OK, NRPH I think is goin' to 38.00 my bias for that holds while 30.00 holds, which is 13% lower and I'd wanna stalk that one before I'd actually trade it long. It's workin' on a fresh channel turn up just today, from the 35.00 high.

Count-wise, 28.50 was a 'c' completion, and the test a month later passed nicely, with price impulsing up from it, and it's now in a fuzzy 3rd or 5th impulse up. Money flow has been very nice on the daily, and while 35.00 is resistance and smart money sells resistance, I'd pass on it. I think she's a bull.

On the weekly, I count that it's in a 5th up. So the break over 35.00 will be the final impulse on the weekly. Any longs will be selling the pop breakout at the next weekly upper channel tag. I really doubt that one will boom the weekly; it's been very strong......but it is a pharma and who knows... After the 5th on the weekly it'll trade very tough for a month or two, favoring shorts. I think you're a bit early with your short, and should wait to anticipate the 5th completion OR wait for the 'a' first and short into the 'b' and look for a 'c' failure if you're FA a bear on it. But for me, I'd be a buyer of the weekly 'c' corrective, based on the money flow and volume by price.

I also note P&F are showing a double top breakout just yesterday.

Good luck with it though. Now for SIRF, there's a good short dude. Nice call. I like today's intraday pop to 36.05 double top to target 28.00, a nice 22% target with stop over hod. Money flow weak lately, the SHS up top, bearish weekly and monthly candles up top, and if you want more out of it to the downside, you can logically target 23.35 gap support from Sept 05, which is 35%.

Good luck Lye! Love the thread man. You can pick some great stocks dude! Valuable resource to the forum indeed.

[spikefader]

... Congrats on GEHL Lye! I think that's goin' to 41.00ish within the next 3 weeks or so. Consider profit-taking the upper weekly channel tag though. Good luck, and keep postin'!
lol. Dude, wow huh. So much for 3 weeks. Only needed 2 days! lol

Time to take it off and buy the dip.

Triple toppy intraday today. Smart folk got out at the 40.65 double top.

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/9804/gehlapr5tag4zd.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

Fellas.... I have trimmed back on all of my "featured" positions (including GEHL) I still have "token" positions in all of them. I am holding a "decent" position in GEHL but I've sold about half of it....

I'll keep all of the featured positions open for now (for the sake of the thread) but I would advise extreme caution right now.

SIRF is above it's MA50 but I think will fall again. Stalk for a good short if it gets to 39.

PARL is weak.... Stay away right now.

GEHL might sell off some now.... But it's a good one.

CVGI should trade flat.

JAH is acting weak. Ain't sure what'll happen here.

NRPH is just CRAZY (and dangerous to short)

ECOL should retrace further before it resumes it's rise too. If it consolidates within the next 4-6 weeks I'll rebuild my position. It's paying a dividend later in the month btw.

Ain't a bad time to have ca$h imo....

Now I might change my mind after lunch today.LOL.... BUT.... If I go heavily back into any of these I'll try to post what I'm doing.

[peanuts]

PARL is weak.... Stay away right now.



Lyehopper,

I just went against your advice. Please do not take this as a challenge, or my attempt to disrespect your opinion. Check out this chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PARL&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=5&id=p84003648639

I'm not much of a TA guy, but I see a few things about today's action. I think you have called a bottom, and I'll explain why I think this. With the parameters I have set up, the RSI and MACD gives me a great indicator of topping and bottoming behavior (I got the parameters from a true TA trader that is successful). With just about all the stocks I put into this chart, I see the bottoms as they are happening. It occurs when the RSI is below the 30 line. If this corresponds with the MACD in a sharp decline with increasing spread, the bottom is about 90% accurate.

of course, when you look at Sept action, the bottom was called several times before it really hit at 21.97.

Also, it seems that $28 is acting as a nice support level.

This is only my opinion, but I've back it up with a few shares as well. Looking for 31 and that's it. ;)

Great call on GEHL by the way. I was hoping to get in within the last week, but it wasn't until yesterday that all the funds cleared. By the time I went to put in my order, it was too late.

[Lyehopper]

Lyehopper,

I just went against your advice. Please do not take this as a challenge, or my attempt to disrespect your opinion. Check out this chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PARL&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=5&id=p84003648639

I'm not much of a TA guy, but I see a few things about today's action. I think you have called a bottom, and I'll explain why I think this. With the parameters I have set up, the RSI and MACD gives me a great indicator of topping and bottoming behavior (I got the parameters from a true TA trader that is successful). With just about all the stocks I put into this chart, I see the bottoms as they are happening. It occurs when the RSI is below the 30 line. If this corresponds with the MACD in a sharp decline with increasing spread, the bottom is about 90% accurate.

of course, when you look at Sept action, the bottom was called several times before it really hit at 21.97.

Also, it seems that $28 is acting as a nice resistance level.

This is only my opinion, but I've back it up with a few shares as well. Looking for 31 and that's it. ;)
I hear what you're sayin' Peanuts but I don't like the high volume today and PARL has broken the MA200 and could contuinue to sell off. I'm not ready to jump on it hard just yet. On the positive side it did quickly bounce off of the 61.8% retracement line today ($28.32) so maybe it can rally from here.

[New-born baby]

I hear what you're sayin' Peanuts but I don't like the high volume today and PARL has broken the MA200 and could contuinue to sell off. I'm not ready to jump on it hard just yet. On the positive side it did quickly bounce off of the 61.8% retracement line today ($28.32) so maybe it can rally from here.

I know--I have said it too many times already--PARL to $19.00. Bears live below the 200 day--don't you forget it :D--and bulls above it. I would not suggest buying PARL until Paris Hilton can get above that 200 day average.
I could also give you 5 more reasons not to buy this one now, but I am going to make you ask me, just in case you don't want to know :D

He cried when I read your post that you might buy PARL here . . . .
http://img342.imageshack.us/img342/8168/matthew20lz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

I know--I have said it too many times already--PARL to $19.00. Bears live below the 200 day--don't you forget it :D--and bulls above it. I would not suggest buying PARL until Paris Hilton can get above that 200 day average.
I could also give you 5 more reasons not to buy this one now, but I am going to make you ask me, just in case you don't want to know :D

He cried when I read your post that you might buy PARL here . . . .

Be sure to tell "Little NBB" that Lye didn't jump back on PARL just yet. Maybe that'll help him sleep all night long tonight.lol

Now if PARL pops 20% tomorrow on HUUUUGE volume.... I'll be cryin'....

btw.... Matt's one good lookin' little fella NB.... Looks like he's got red hair.

[Websman]

I'm still out of PARL. I tried to buy some on Tuesday, but promptly sold it on Wednesady for a small loss...glad I did. Of course, I was going against the VTP when I bought it to start with. Bad Vulcan...jejeje

[peanuts]

I know--I have said it too many times already--PARL to $19.00. Bears live below the 200 day--don't you forget it :D--and bulls above it.

I could also give you 5 more reasons not to buy this one now, but I am going to make you ask me, just in case you don't want to know

He cried when I read your post that you might buy PARL here . . . .

Handsome Kid!

I think I know your other 5 reasons:

1. If I sell PARL, he will stop crying
2. Who wants to smell like a Hilton?
3. Everyone's had a piece of Paris, $29 is expensive, price of the stock should be the price of a drink
4. you don't get a copy of the video when you buy, do you?
5. Why buy a hotel princess when you can buy the Superbowl Quarterback for pennies (DRMS.ob)???

I'll be here all night, folks.

[New-born baby]

Lye-baby,
No redheads in my house at this time; he's a brown head. One blondie and five dark brown heads. Three of my children have black eyes; one blue, one hazel, one brown :D

Peanuts, my friend:
You are a nice guy; I hope you don't mind me giving you five reasons to avoid PARL long at this time.

1. Below 200 day is shorters territory.
2. Head and shoulders formation broke today on 1.5x normal volume.
3. PnF chart--a computer generated target of $19.
4. STOs all agree that this isn't the bottom.
5. Weekly chart shows bearish descending triangle with broken baseline.

PARL should retest the broken neck and fall for the $19 target.
Peanuts, if you take this long, the best to you. I'll probably take PARL short tomorrow, either stock or options.
http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/2339/chart11fr.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[dmk112]

PARL - tough call there. It is right on the trend line way back from 2005. If it breaks, then I would run. The trade is valid with today's low in tact.

http://img305.imageshack.us/img305/6194/fx0000110608pm4620065gm.png

[Lyehopper]

DMK with another opinion! I LOVE IT!

And his chart is much prettier than yours is NBB.... look at the colors! I gotta go with DMK dude!jejeje

btw....DMK what software do you draw your charts on.... TC2000?

[New-born baby]

DMK with another opinion! I LOVE IT!

And his chart is much prettier than yours is NBB.... look at the colors! I gotta go with DMK dude!jejeje

Lye,
Sounds like you are a getting to be a very, very sophisticated investor--those pretty colors tell it all! jejeje But it isn't the colors, but the prices that are important on a chart.

Go back and review this and you won't think that PARL is on trend:
PARL LOSING MOMO (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=45767&postcount=92)

[dmk112]

DMK with another opinion! I LOVE IT!

And his chart is much prettier than yours is NBB.... look at the colors! I gotta go with DMK dude!jejeje

btw....DMK what software do you draw your charts on.... TC2000?

LOL...yea LYE its TC2000

[mystiky]

Cramer pumped FIZ a few days ago, and it has gone from 11.60 to now over $15.

How is the chart looking? I am thinking of going long at some point, but it really seems out of hand right now. Is it possible we see around $13.50 on a dip? I really dont feel comfortable about chasing it.

[peanuts]

Peanuts, my friend:
You are a nice guy; I hope you don't mind me giving you five reasons to avoid PARL long at this time.

1. Below 200 day is shorters territory.
2. Head and shoulders formation broke today on 1.5x normal volume.
3. PnF chart--a computer generated target of $19.
4. STOs all agree that this isn't the bottom.
5. Weekly chart shows bearish descending triangle with broken baseline.

PARL should retest the broken neck and fall for the $19 target.
Peanuts, if you take this long, the best to you. I'll probably take PARL short tomorrow, either stock or options.

I am always open to suggestions, and I appreciate them whether they support or refute my opinions. You make a good argument, and I do not doubt the figures your charts display. I'm just shooting for 31, and I think I will get it.


As a side note, is anyone playing the Sealy IPO today? symbol ZZ I've got a few at 18 and set another limit buy at 17.47. IPO price was $16, giving mkt cap just under 450 million. I think the current owners of the stock know that it's worth more and will run up the price to 23 before they start to sell... a mkt cap of 644 million... a fair price IMO

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Sounds like you are a getting to be a very, very sophisticated investor--those pretty colors tell it all! jejeje But it isn't the colors, but the prices that are important on a chart.

Go back and review this and you won't think that PARL is on trend:
PARL LOSING MOMO (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=45767&postcount=92)
Don't forget the fundamentals on this one NB-Baby.... I'm adding back a few shares today.

[New-born baby]

Cramer pumped FIZ a few days ago, and it has gone from 11.60 to now over $15.

How is the chart looking? I am thinking of going long at some point, but it really seems out of hand right now. Is it possible we see around $13.50 on a dip? I really dont feel comfortable about chasing it.

Sticky--
It seems overextended in my opinion. The chart shows a "long legged doji" on yesterday's action. The action was such that the bears pushed the bulls more than halfway back. I think FIZ will pull back starting late today or early Monday. That just my opinion from looking at the chart.

New issues are hard to judge because we have no history to look at/

[New-born baby]

Don't forget the fundamentals on this one NB-Baby.... I'm adding back a few shares today.

Best to you, Lye. You probably will do well daytrading this one. Just remember: what we have today is a retest of the broken neck. That's a normal reaction, and Monday you should see a hard sell off, I think.

[spikefader]

Lye,
...review this and you won't think that PARL is on trend:
PARL LOSING MOMO (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=45767&postcount=92)"Momo trendlines" by NB!! I love it; another TA buzzword created! hehehe. I need to see more of the momo trendline technique :D

[New-born baby]

"Momo trendlines" by NB!! I love it; another TA buzzword created! hehehe. I need to see more of the momo trendline technique :D

$pike,
You use the momo trendlines yourself. Just review some of your charts where the trend has moved higher. You usually mark such moves with a "boom." :D
Where do you think I picked up this technique? Nowhere else but Spikefader's Scientific Stock Analysis. :D

[noshadyldy]

PARL is an ALPHA KING sell.

[Runner]

Lye,
Sounds like you are a getting to be a very, very sophisticated investor--those pretty colors tell it all! jejeje But it isn't the colors, but the prices that are important on a chart.

Go back and review this and you won't think that PARL is on trend:
PARL LOSING MOMO (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=45767&postcount=92)

NB, I use trendlines all the time. If you extend your momo lines on your charts you will often see where support often turns into resistance. This is often the case with trend acceleration.

[Runner]

Here is my micro look into PARL. Notice the consolidation zone and double bottom it put in. Now notice target zone for this move. Pretty darn close. Nice sell off from top. The trend is in question right now as it did put in a lower low. If it drops any from here I’m Bear on it (short term), if it takes out last small reaction high I see a possible double bottom would be in effect with target around last highs.
http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/9011/parl8er.png (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

$pike,
You use the momo trendlines yourself. Just review some of your charts where the trend has moved higher. You usually mark such moves with a "boom." :D
Where do you think I picked up this technique? Nowhere else but Spikefader's Scientific Stock Analysis. :D:) hehe well to be accurate those "booms" are related to price action through regression channels, but same principle to a trendline I guess; only they are more complex to calculate width and slope. But I like your twist on the 'boom' principle and encourage more work on these 'momo trendlines' hehe. A google search reveals it's a term that's yet to be a subject of any search engine pages. So that makes you an original artist! :D

"momo trendlines" on google (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22momo+trendlines%22&btnG=Google+Search)

Regards,
Spike

[peanuts]

Best to you, Lye. You probably will do well daytrading this one. Just remember: what we have today is a retest of the broken neck. That's a normal reaction, and Monday you should see a hard sell off, I think.

I'm changing my mind more often than Cheech in Amsterdam... I got out of PARL today at 29.25, made about $150 LOL... note the name

Took that money and put it in GFIG @ $55.47... looks less risky, but not as profitable: CHART (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GFIG&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=5&id=p99560705876)

Others that I selected, but did not buy: CRED, OXPS, TWP, CNX

Just felt like sharing...

[Websman]

I'm changing my mind more often than Cheech in Amsterdam... I got out of PARL today at 29.25, made about $150 LOL... note the name

Took that money and put it in GFIG @ $55.47... looks less risky, but not as profitable: CHART (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GFIG&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=5&id=p99560705876)

Others that I selected, but did not buy: CRED, OXPS, TWP, CNX

Just felt like sharing...

I've bought PARL 3 times in the past two months. Twice for a profit and once for a small loss.

The VTP is indicating a further drop at this time, but I will buy back when the VTP vectors turn bullish.

[New-born baby]

:) hehe well to be accurate those "booms" are related to price action through regression channels, but same principle to a trendline I guess; only they are more complex to calculate width and slope. But I like your twist on the 'boom' principle and encourage more work on these 'momo trendlines' hehe. A google search reveals it's a term that's yet to be a subject of any search engine pages. So that makes you an original artist! :D

"momo trendlines" on google (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22momo+trendlines%22&btnG=Google+Search)

Regards,
Spike

Spike,
Bought $45 PUTs on QQQQ Friday at $2.70. Looking for QQQQ to return to support around $40.25 or so in the next few weeks. Spike, its a good buy. The premium is only .10. That's two and one half month's option for a mere .10. I thought you might want to play this one.

[peanuts]

Spike,
Bought $45 PUTs on QQQQ Friday at $2.70. Looking for QQQQ to return to support around $40.25 or so in the next few weeks. Spike, its a good buy. The premium is only .10. That's two and one half month's option for a mere .10. I thought you might want to play this one.

I would really like for you to teach me how to trade options. That is a completely new field to me. I did not pay attention in class. So many people tell me that options are the way to make "free" money.

help me to win, please

BTW: how do companies account for the options expense?

[New-born baby]

I would really like for you to teach me how to trade options. That is a completely new field to me. I did not pay attention in class. So many people tell me that options are the way to make "free" money.

help me to win, please

BTW: how do companies account for the options expense?

Let's start with this: would you care to list for me stocks that you currently own that are optionable right now?

Do you have a margin account?

Are you allowed to daytrade or not?

Can you post your answers on "Options: Low cost investing?"
Thanks!

[DSteckler]

So many people tell me that options are the way to make "free" money.

So many people are idiots.

[Lyehopper]

So many people are idiots.
LOL!!!!.... Dave I give that my vote as the "HUUUUGE quote of the week"....

[New-born baby]

LOL!!!!.... Dave I give that my vote as the "HUUUUGE quote of the week"....

Dave is HUGE! PERIOD! :D :D

I bet that when Dave played football, he was the middle linebacker in the mold of Dick Butkis. Just stuff 'em as they come through the line! :D

[DSteckler]

Never played football. Well, that's not entirely accurate...I played "football" (soccer) as a fullback in high school. And few got past me!

[IIC]

Peanuts...There is a place for options in investing...But a free lunch is not one of them...I could tell you horror stories from actual people I know and I could tell you a few success stories to...but not nearly as many...Doug

[spikefader]

lol Yup agree with Dave. Options are the hardest of all speculative vehicles in my humble opinion.

Sure, they have the potential to be the most rewarding, but you've got to know what you're doing.

[dmk112]

Hey how 'bout that CPSTS!! :D :D :D

[Lyehopper]

Hey how 'bout that CPSTS!! :D :D :D
Giving a little back today but still pretty HUUUUGE!!!! WTG DMK!!!!

I knew I liked that company dude.lol

[Lyehopper]

PARL is an ALPHA KING sell.
Yep.... Looks like it is. DRAT!

Looks like short is the place to be right now.

[New-born baby]

PARL is an ALPHA KING sell.

I think that all of the MM types got out of the way of this falling star. I am glad for that. I am writing because I want to mention that the chart warnings paid off. (Just a cheap plug for TA :D)

[Lyehopper]

I think that all of the MM types got out of the way of this falling star. I am glad for that. I am writing because I want to mention that the chart warnings paid off. (Just a cheap plug for TA :D)
Here's a Fibonacci Retracement run on the two year daily.... Target look familiar NBB?

Problem is.... I still like this stupid company.lol

http://img57.imageshack.us/img57/7964/parl10yf.png (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Here's a Fibonacci Retracement run on the two year daily.... Target look familiar NBB?

Problem is.... I still like this stupid company.lol

http://img57.imageshack.us/img57/7964/parl10yf.png (http://imageshack.us)

I guess your in love with that senseless girl Paris. lol

[peanuts]

I'm changing my mind more often than Cheech in Amsterdam... I got out of PARL today at 29.25, made about $150 LOL... note the name

Took that money and put it in GFIG @ $55.47... looks less risky, but not as profitable: CHART (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GFIG&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=5&id=p99560705876)

Others that I selected, but did not buy: CRED, OXPS, TWP, CNX

Just felt like sharing...

Glad I got out with a profit!!! Now I just need GFIG to explode, and I really made a great trade...

I guess her sunglasses aren't going to be a big hit.

Should I short?

[Lyehopper]

Actually I can't stand Paris Hilton. But I like PARL's balance sheet.

Changing gears.... ESLR is a good short right now NB-Baby.... Check it out.

[New-born baby]

Actually I can't stand Paris Hilton's balance sheet.

Changing gears.... ESLR is a good short right now NB-Baby.... Check it out.

Yeah, ESLR looks like she in a swan dive, but she has an option chain that is pretty good for a low dollar stock. I might make an option play on this one.

EDIT: just checked things out and I figure that this one is too late for me. Patience to wait for the "perfect" setup. :D

[Lyehopper]

Yeah, ESLR looks like she in a swan dive, but she has an option chain that is pretty good for a low dollar stock. I might make an option play on this one.

EDIT: just checked things out and I figure that this one is too late for me. Patience to wait for the "perfect" setup. :D
I posted a few hours too early.... ESLR is NOW a good short! LOL!!!!

Seriously.... It is..... I think.... I have not taken a poisition yet though.

[Lyehopper]

There are too many better stocks to choose over Pacificanet. You are right, the fundies are OK, but there is not enough to compell me, (or a lot of others, apparently), to go in.
Hey Adman.... Is today's action in PACT "compelling"?lol

I figured PACT would do this sooner or later.... Too bad I didn't hold any before this pop.

[New-born baby]

PARL is down to $21.30 in the after hours trading, according to Interactive Brokers . . . glad you are out the door :D

[Websman]

PARL is down to $21.30 in the after hours trading, according to Interactive Brokers . . . glad you are out the door :D

I saw the same quote, but I don't think it's right.

Of course, I took my profit twice and ran...

[DSteckler]

After-hours low is $27.30.

[peanuts]

PARL is down to $21.30 in the after hours trading, according to Interactive Brokers . . . glad you are out the door :D

yeah... should've shorted when I sold. say that four times, fast

[DSteckler]

I say again, tonight's AH low was $27.30.

[Lyehopper]

It's off and running off today's low.... I've seen this before.

Buy it!

[Websman]

It's off and running off today's low.... I've seen this before.

Buy it!

Too bad I wasn't at home to buy it... But, I'm still stalking it..jejeje

[peanuts]

It's off and running off today's low.... I've seen this before.

Buy it!


price target? thanks

[Lyehopper]

ECOL should rally again now....

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060418/20060418005946.html?.v=1

[New-born baby]

It's off and running off today's low.... I've seen this before.

Buy it!
No, no, no :D You are supposed to SELL into any strength on a declining stock. :D

[Lyehopper]

No, no, no :D You are supposed to SELL into any strength on a declining stock. :D
What happens if the stock is experiencing a reversal? I guess it pays to "know the stock". Let see if PARL hit bottom yesterday. I think it did.

[New-born baby]

What happens if the stock is experiencing a reversal? I guess it pays to "know the stock". Let see if PARL hit bottom yesterday. I think it did.

Lye,
I apologize for the negative post on PARL on your thread. I didn't intend to rain on your party--just wasn't thinking. :D
You are correct that PARL bounced off of support here yesterday, and significant support at that. And the Fast STO says that this could be the bottom, and the RSI says 'it might be,' too. The Point n Figure still says PARL has to see $19 for the very bottom.

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I apologize for the negative post on PARL on your thread. I didn't intend to rain on your party--just wasn't thinking. :D
You are correct that PARL bounced off of support here yesterday, and significant support at that. And the Fast STO says that this could be the bottom, and the RSI says 'it might be,' too. The Point n Figure still says PARL has to see $19 for the very bottom.
No appology necessary NBB. You were posting your opinion. I respect and encourage that dude. Plus PARL could do as you say. I just picked up a little on the bounce yesterday but I ain't married to it.lol

Now what does your TA say about my ECOL?.... Takin' some profits there this AM.

[New-born baby]

ECOL:TA says she's hitting $24 pretty quick, and longer term--$38.50.

PARL: Hit significant resistance yesterday and bounced as expected. Now has significant resistance at $29. IF current support (see chart) fails, not much between current price and $19.

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/3825/chart14js.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

ECOL:TA says she's hitting $24 pretty quick, and longer term--$38.50.

PARL: Hit significant resistance yesterday and bounced as expected. Now has significant resistance at $29. IF current support (see chart) fails, not much between current price and $19.

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/3825/chart14js.gif (http://imageshack.us/)
BUT.... What does PARL's weekly chart tell ya? You don't often look at the weekly do ya NBB? Personally?.... I'd way rather study weekly charts than daily.

[New-born baby]

BUT.... What does PARL's weekly chart tell ya? You don't often look at the weekly do ya NBB? Personally?.... I'd way rather study weekly charts than daily.

I do look at the weekly . . . PARL's weekly tells me it has lost its MoMo . . . it is in the process of rolling over . . . PARL bounced off of support yesterday, as you would expect, but watch out Monday . . . :D Did you notice that PARL is moving up on lower volume today? That's bearish. Stocks that roll over normally experience this type of action. No stock just drops to the floor, but see/saws its way down to the bottom. Look at that chart I posted. PARL has given false signals higher about five times in a row now. (from $38 down to today's prices).

The good thing about the Lyehopper is that he knows how to hop out of the way if he needs to. :D Sorry to beat Paris to death here . . . .

[Lyehopper]

I do look at the weekly . . . PARL's weekly tells me it has lot MoMo . . . it is in the process of rolling over . . . PARL bounced off of support yesterday, as you would expect, but watch out Monday . . . :D The good thing about the Lyehopper is that he knows how to hop out of the way if he needs to. :D
LOL yep.... I'm ready to "hop" on SIRF short again (at resistance).... Gotta swing trade this thing (short) very cautuiously! It could pull a ESLR on ya if you're not carefull. That stinkin' thing (ESLR) bit me in the butt earlier. I think SIRF short above $39.50 might be good for 5%. But if she breaks $40 Cover your arse.... and QUICK!....lol

Seriously! might be some nice short plays sitting up right now. While the "masses" buy everything in sight, look for what might be ready to sell off.

[New-born baby]

Seriously! might be some nice short plays sitting up right now. While the "masses" buy everything in sight, look for what might be ready to sell off.

I agree about the shorts--next week the market tumbles, imo, because the expiration is over. Usually we have a run up to expiration, and a tumble the week after . . . .

SIRF: I am long the stock, as I post somewhere on MM. Sitting pretty via the option chain, so no sweat for me as long as SIRF is above $30 lol.

Looking at SIRF chart, resistance says she stops just under $40. I sold the May $45 calls naked because I don't think she gets there, but I could be wrong. I have been wrong before.

PARL: today's volume at 12:30 EST is 84k shares.
Normal daily volume is 385k per day, or 60k per hour.
LOW.

Suggest you short the QQQQs by buying the JUN $45 PUT. QQQQ has significant resistance at $43. You'll be able to buy the put there at $2.10--if QQQQs get to $43 before Friday close. Don't think it will . . . . In any case I'd be looking to buy those puts by Friday's close. This thing moves nickle for nickle with the price, so for $210 you control $4300 worth of stock. All you need is for the NAZ to fall after you buy the stock. And if she doesn't, wait until tomorrow. :D

[spikefader]

I agree about the shorts--next week the market tumbles, imo, because the expiration is over. Usually we have a run up to expiration, and a tumble the week after . . . .
....
Yeah, but we don't usually have an impulse off a 'c' long area on the DOW though NB. Caution shorts is my fresh call. You'll have to be nimble with shorts, trying to time them relative to those impulses, but why fight the tide? We're goin' up says the charts hehe

Good job with ECOL Lye! And I agree with NB re PARL. SIRF, I agree with you. hehe

Best!

[spikefader]

BUT.... What does PARL's weekly chart tell ya.....I'd way rather study weekly charts than daily.
Yep, great point. PARL's weekly chart shows fantastic money flow, and it's at support areas. I just don't like the SHS I see, nor the broadening shape.

http://img128.imageshack.us/img128/8531/parlweeklyap194sv.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[DSteckler]

Yep, great point. PARL's weekly chart shows fantastic money flow, and it's at support areas. I just don't like the SHS I see, nor the broadening shape.

http://img128.imageshack.us/img128/8531/parlweeklyap194sv.gif (http://imageshack.us)

I don't know what money flow indicator you're looking at but the weekly Volume Flow Indicator has been trending lower since 3/3 and turned distributive on Friday.

PARL also broke below the rising intermediate-term trendline (connect the week-ending 5/6/05 and 10/28/05 bars) last Friday and has failed to get back above it.

[spikefader]

I don't know what money flow indicator you're looking at

It's Chaikin Money Flow indicator that one; and yep, that's been trending back to the zero line since March too....the zero line support reaction gonna be interesting to note.

[Lyehopper]

Here's a weekly chart and a different angle on it. I'm out of PARL folks. @ $28.25.... My first closed "featured" trade is a loss. I'll post it later.

http://img357.imageshack.us/img357/2720/parl28qn.png (http://imageshack.us)

[DSteckler]

It's Chaikin Money Flow indicator that one; and yep, that's been trending back to the zero line since March too....the zero line support reaction gonna be interesting to note.

The weekly Chaikin Oscillator has been trending lower since late February. The oscillator plots the difference between two exponential averages of the Accumulation Distribution. The Accumulation Distribution uses the relationship between the open and close of the bar, and the range of the bar, to weight and characterize the volume as Accumulation (buying) or Distribution (selling). The indicator fell below zero (Distribution) the week ending 3/10/06.

[spikefader]

What happens if the stock is experiencing a reversal? I guess it pays to "know the stock". Let see if PARL hit bottom yesterday. I think it did.This post prompted me to check the daily again. And it's a channel long yesterday, but no pattern to confirm so that's a whisper of caution on the long side to me.

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/2596/parlap190tv.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[B.J]

I was in PARL from 30 to 38, and back down to 30 for no gain :D

Lye and Spike, agree with you both. I wouldn't touch it now. I'll wait until it clears the upper trend line (30-31 range), and see if it settles in on a higher low.

But, that downtrend is bona-fide.

[dmk112]

BJ, where have you been dude??

[B.J]

BJ, where have you been dude??
Lurk mode mostly. I've gone to a little more of a buy and hold. Watching charts and swing trading is fun, but it takes a lot of spare time.

Still love this forum. congrats on TZOO.

[Lyehopper]

.....might be some nice short plays sitting up right now. While the "masses" buy everything in sight, look for what might be ready to sell off.
ESLR is sliding today.... Didn't have my eye on it so I missed this nice 7-9% move down. I'll wait for it to recover a bit.

ENER is down over 5%.... Don't have a short position.

I'm short SIRF from above 39.50.

What are you fellas stalking short?

[jiesen]

If I were to look for a short right now, SIRF would definitely make it to the top of my short list. Being long MSPD, I would consider it an effective hedge (if SIRF jumps 20%, MSPD should jump 30%).

I believe SIRF's initial burst of revenue growth is coming swiftly to an end. I could be wrong... but that's my initial impression of it.

I should probably just bail out of my MSPD right now, but I like owning it.

[billyjoe]

Lye,
Are these reports about the new Gehl oil sands ex-tractor true ? You simply set the extractor depth guage (current max. 10 feet) , drive over the sands and the oil is deposited in massive rear tanks. The coolest feature is the mini- refiner that deposits finished product into the gas tank and oil reservoir enabling the machine to run 24-7.

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Are these reports about the new Gehl oil sands ex-tractor true ? You simply set the extractor depth guage (current max. 10 feet) , drive over the sands and the oil is deposited in massive rear tanks. The coolest feature is the mini- refiner that deposits finished product into the gas tank and oil reservoir enabling the machine to run 24-7.

billyjoe
I thought that I was the only GEHL retail shareholder privy to that info BillyJoe.... I'm sure it'll come out in the next CC though.

GO GEHL!!!!

http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/4425/gehl7sp.png (http://imageshack.us)

HEY!!!! Look at my ECOL runnin' again today!!!!

[Lyehopper]

This was a stupid trade.... Thank goodness I only had a small position. This is a local company that I watch.... and I SWEAR it's gonna fall eventially.

I just can't seem to buy a speculative stock with no sales.... Looking at NRPH's chart makes me think that maybe I should learn to.lol.... BUT!!!! When I see it's time for NRPH to crash.... I'll short this thing thru the basement! But for now.... My second closed featured trade is a loss.... I'll post details later.

[Lyehopper]

I'm taking my ECOL profits @ 24.55 (Actually I sold most shares higher this morning)

My third closed "Featured Trade" is for a gain.... I'll post details later.

[Lyehopper]

I'm closing my GEHL position for now.... I'll buy it back soon.

I actually sold most of my shares above 39.50 but I'll use 38.89 for the trade here.

My fourth closed "Featured Trade" is for a gain.... I'll post details later.

[Lyehopper]

My SIRF short trade is about to pay off.... Fellas!!!! watch this Doggy drop.

I'm adding to my short position on any rally attempts this morning. I've got a ton of dry powder for this trade too.jejeje

[Lyehopper]

For one, I like CPST. (Don't look at the fundies LOL).

Here's the chart. I posted this back in Feb aniticapting a b/o but it took a while.

http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/6702/cpstdaily032606triangle6nk.png
Hey DMK.... Great call on CPST. I knew I liked that company.lol

Since you posted it here less than a month ago it's up nearly 20%!!!! HUUUUGE!!!! dude!

What's your next 20%er? Post it here PLEEEEESE?!!!!!

[billyjoe]

Lye,
Just did some quick research on ECOL since I knew nothing about the company. I won't name the sources in most cases.
1. service x rates it at outperform
2. ranks at 80% or more in most categories vs. peers
a.more profitable than peers
b. less long term debt than peers
c. utilizes assets more than peers
d. revenue growth better than peers (average 24% last 5 years)

3. negative earnings surprise last quarter -11%
4. ranks 17th of 110 companies in pollution control

Momentum Investor Rates it at 68% which is very good
Small Cap Growth (Motley Fool) gives it a 76%
P/E Growth Peter Lynch rates it at 87% which is outstanding

One analyst said it was overvalued at 25, but gives it a buy recommendation
Another rates it as undervalued

Projected growth is 23% for next year
Sales growth has been 71% for the previous 12 months

Pollution cleanup has to be a growing industry. Billyjoe gives it a longterm "buy".

billyjoe

[IIC]

Lye,
Just did some quick research on ECOL since I knew nothing about the company. I won't name the sources in most cases.
1. service x rates it at outperform
2. ranks at 80% or more in most categories vs. peers
a.more profitable than peers
b. less long term debt than peers
c. utilizes assets more than peers
d. revenue growth better than peers (average 24% last 5 years)

3. negative earnings surprise last quarter -11%
4. ranks 17th of 110 companies in pollution control

Momentum Investor Rates it at 68% which is very good
Small Cap Growth (Motley Fool) gives it a 76%
P/E Growth Peter Lynch rates it at 87% which is outstanding

One analyst said it was overvalued at 25, but gives it a buy recommendation
Another rates it as undervalued

Projected growth is 23% for next year
Sales growth has been 71% for the previous 12 months

Pollution cleanup has to be a growing industry. Billyjoe gives it a longterm "buy".

billyjoe

Look for Pollution Control to be BIG in China in the next 10 years...Doug

[Lyehopper]

Pollution cleanup has to be a growing industry. Billyjoe gives it (ECOL) a longterm "buy".
I agree BillyJoe.... I hope I didn't sell too soon. I didn't like the lack of volume on that pop Friday. I'm hoping to buy it back on a pullback.

[Gatorman]

Lyehopper:
Am waiting for the next installment of the "Roundup."
When are you going to start "restocking" the portfolio?

[New-born baby]

I agree BillyJoe.... I hope I didn't sell too soon. I didn't like the lack of volume on that pop Friday. I'm hoping to buy it back on a pullback.

ECOL: has a target of $47.50. Seriously my friend, I can't figure out why you got out. Here's a plan: re-enter with half the amount of shares you originally had, and let them ride.

[New-born baby]

Lye,
Just did some quick research on ECOL since I knew nothing about the company. I won't name the sources in most cases.
1. service x rates it at outperform
2. ranks at 80% or more in most categories vs. peers
a.more profitable than peers
b. less long term debt than peers
c. utilizes assets more than peers
d. revenue growth better than peers (average 24% last 5 years)

3. negative earnings surprise last quarter -11%
4. ranks 17th of 110 companies in pollution control

Momentum Investor Rates it at 68% which is very good
Small Cap Growth (Motley Fool) gives it a 76%
P/E Growth Peter Lynch rates it at 87% which is outstanding

One analyst said it was overvalued at 25, but gives it a buy recommendation
Another rates it as undervalued

Projected growth is 23% for next year
Sales growth has been 71% for the previous 12 months

Pollution cleanup has to be a growing industry. Billyjoe gives it a longterm "buy".

billyjoe

BillyJoe,
I'd like to know what company is #1 in pollution control, and what company is #110. Could you please tell me?

[IIC]

BillyJoe,
I'd like to know what company is #1 in pollution control, and what company is #110. Could you please tell me?


I only have 42 stocks listed in my Pollution group...BTW, I think Pollution Control stocks will be hot in China...Doug(IIC)

[New-born baby]

I only have 42 stocks listed in my Pollution group...BTW, I think Pollution Control stocks will be hot in China...Doug(IIC)

Doug,
I hear you . . . I think you know what you are talking about. So what is #1, and what company is #42? :D

[IIC]

Doug,
I hear you . . . I think you know what you are talking about. So what is #1, and what company is #42? :D

I don't have a rating system on each stock in each group although TMI looks nice...I also just happened to post a chart of FTEK on my thread...it could be interesting...Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

BillyJoe,
I'd like to know what company is #1 in pollution control, and what company is #110. Could you please tell me?
You didn't ask me.... but that never stopped me before.lol

My database has 45 companies grouped in "Pollution Control".... Ranked by VST Vector the overall best company currently is ECOL.... The last one (that is not a BB stock) is HDSN.... the one right above it is BEL. NOTE: there seem to be a lot of very small BB companies in this space.

Make you a deal NBB.... Give me your most honest straight forward opinion and TA on ECOL, JAH and SIRF and I'll post the entire group sorted anyway you'd like.jejeje

btw.... Thanks BillyJoe!!!! great work there dude.

[Lyehopper]

I don't have a rating system on each stock in each group although TMI looks nice...I also just happened to post a chart of FTEK on my thread...it could be interesting...Doug(IIC)
Your avatar is freakin' me out Doug! I thought I saw SIRF @ $50 in it and I almost choked on my oatmeal cookie.

Edit: TMI is listed second to ECOL in my Database in Pollution Control Services....

FTEK is in Pollution control "Equipment" not "Services".... My datedase shows 24 stocks in the "Equipment" group.... My favorite one there is CECE.... but FTEK looks good too..... AND.... it just closed that 14.88 gap (to the penny!) on Friday and may very well move back up now.

[New-born baby]

You didn't ask me.... but that never stopped me before.lol

My database has 45 companies grouped in "Pollution Control".... Ranked by VST Vector the overall best company currently is ECOL.... The last one (that is not a BB stock) is HDSN.... the one right above it is BEL. NOTE: there seem to be a lot of very small BB companies in this space.

Make you a deal NBB.... Give me your most honest straight forward opinion and TA on ECOL, JAH and SIRF and I'll post the entire group sorted anyway you'd like.jejeje

btw.... Thanks BillyJoe!!!! great work there dude.

Okay, tonight I will do just that for you, Lye-baby. Gotta keep preparing for church right now . . . . :D Oh, yeah, I forgot: my opinion is always straightforward :D

[New-born baby]

You didn't ask me.... but that never stopped me before.lol

My database has 45 companies grouped in "Pollution Control".... Ranked by VST Vector the overall best company currently is ECOL.... The last one (that is not a BB stock) is HDSN.... the one right above it is BEL. NOTE: there seem to be a lot of very small BB companies in this space.

Make you a deal NBB.... Give me your most honest straight forward opinion and TA on ECOL, JAH and SIRF and I'll post the entire group sorted anyway you'd like.jejeje

btw.... Thanks BillyJoe!!!! great work there dude.

ECOL: still can't figure out why you dumped this one. HOT STOCK!
1st target: $31
2nd target: $47.50.

Last time ECOL broke out, it took three months to reach its peak, and then about 2 weeks later it double topped at the same money . . . .

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/5876/chart13sr.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

You didn't ask me.... but that never stopped me before.lol

My database has 45 companies grouped in "Pollution Control".... Ranked by VST Vector the overall best company currently is ECOL.... The last one (that is not a BB stock) is HDSN.... the one right above it is BEL. NOTE: there seem to be a lot of very small BB companies in this space.

Make you a deal NBB.... Give me your most honest straight forward opinion and TA on ECOL, JAH and SIRF and I'll post the entire group sorted anyway you'd like.jejeje

btw.... Thanks BillyJoe!!!! great work there dude.

JAH:
PnF still doesn't like this one. Says PARL and JAH are both candidates for a $19 bottom . . . .at least we can say that current resistance is strong at $33.37. Yes, the daily sports a cup with handle and a $34 target. I don't like this one: sorry :(

[New-born baby]

You didn't ask me.... but that never stopped me before.lol

My database has 45 companies grouped in "Pollution Control".... Ranked by VST Vector the overall best company currently is ECOL.... The last one (that is not a BB stock) is HDSN.... the one right above it is BEL. NOTE: there seem to be a lot of very small BB companies in this space.

Make you a deal NBB.... Give me your most honest straight forward opinion and TA on ECOL, JAH and SIRF and I'll post the entire group sorted anyway you'd like.jejeje

btw.... Thanks BillyJoe!!!! great work there dude.

SIRF:currently rangebound between $35 and $39.75. Until either the support or resistance breaks, you should trade with the ranges, i.e., buy $35, sell $39.75. PnF says she's going to break that $35 support and fall down to $28.
Well, that $35 support is quite substantial. It can bust alright, but it isn't going to bust easily. Having said that, I would also say that if a stock keeps hammering its support base, it eventually shatters. SIRF has hammered it 4 times. Monday needs to be an up day for SIRF or else $28 might be in vogue again.
http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/5515/chart15ll.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Yup. I know it. It's unwelcome. But I can't resist posting on PARL's FRI action.
Burnt toast, ya know. Smoking in the toaster right now, and it won't pop up.

http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/7554/chart19js.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

Yup. I know it. It's unwelcome. But I can't resist posting on PARL's FRI action.
Burnt toast, ya know. Smoking in the toaster right now, and it won't pop up.

http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/7554/chart19js.gif (http://imageshack.us/)
No dude! I ain't in denial about any stock. You'll recall that I sold PARL a few days back. Great call btw NBB! You-Da-MAN!!!! You are HUUUUGE!!!!

Now I'm worried about SIRF. Very dangerous to hold this puppy thru earnings I think....

Plus I see a "tweezer" intraday bottom. hmmmmmmmmmmm. Comments fellas on SIRF short right here?.... (reports tomorrow after the bell)

[New-born baby]

No dude! I ain't in denial about any stock. You'll recall that I sold PARL a few days back. Great call btw NBB! You-Da-MAN!!!! You are HUUUUGE!!!!

Now I'm worried about SIRF. Very dangerous to hold this puppy thru earnings I think....

Plus I see a "tweezer" intraday bottom. hmmmmmmmmmmm. Comments fellas on SIRF short right here?.... (reports tomorrow after the bell)

Lye-Baby:
PARL--I know you aren't in denial about PARL . . . just thought you were in love, that's all. :D No, seriously, PARL's a great short right now.

SIRF: support is extremely strong at $35--unless earnings are absolutely horrible, I don't know if she'll bust it. . . I am long the stock with $35 calls sold at $4.40--that's $39.40 for it . . . if support at $35 fails, no problem. Sell the $30 calls and clean up :D I just couldn't bring myself to short this one right now. But you could do this: the $45 calls are selling for $50--and this thing isn't going to take out the $45 marker without GooG style earnings. JMHO>

[Lyehopper]

Lyehopper:
Am waiting for the next installment of the "Roundup."
When are you going to start "restocking" the portfolio?
I hope to post something new soon....

I sold ECOL too early.... I hate it when I do that.

I'm spooked by this market Gator. I'm afraid to be a bull and I'm afraid to be a bear.... I HATE THIS MARKET RIGHT NOW!!!! Reminds me of 2000. I'd love to see a rate cut.... but on the other hand oil prices are driving inflation and I don't see a cut while that's going on. AND earnings are still coming in strong driving the market upward. This is just screwed up! I feel like becoming a day trader here.

What's your take on this?

I guess if ya want to play it safe.... Ca$h is a safe play dude.lol

[Lyehopper]

I'm out of this trade too. My gut says don't hold thru earnings here. I'll post details of all my closed "featured" trades as soon as I get time.

[billyjoe]

Lye,
I feel your pain. I'm sitting on 10 winners and 2 mini losers right now. My question is can I go all to cash and duplicate this performance starting from scratch or will I be kicking my own but for being so stupid.
In the early 90's all my $$ were in mutual funds , as the market continued to rise I was getting jumpy. At DOW 3500 I called my rep, but they said to hang on and at DOW 11000 I was on top of the world. The "correction" following cost me about 40% of total holdings. HELP ME LYE !

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Lye,
How about creating the Lyehopper Bad Times Portfolio? It could contain stocks that will thrive when everything else is going to hell. Let's see, some gold, oil, pollution , security, weapons, nuclear energy, elecricity. What am I missing?

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I feel your pain. I'm sitting on 10 winners and 2 mini losers right now. My question is can I go all to cash and duplicate this performance starting from scratch or will I be kicking my own but for being so stupid.
In the early 90's all my $$ were in mutual funds , as the market continued to rise I was getting jumpy. At DOW 3500 I called my rep, but they said to hang on and at DOW 11000 I was on top of the world. The "correction" following cost me about 40% of total holdings. HELP ME LYE !

billyjoe
And the problem with a correction in this kind of market is.... It'll hit ya quick and it's hard to react.... Ca$h BillyJoe.... Ca$h.... OR at very least, get the heck out of your margin.

[New-born baby]

And the problem with a correction in this kind of market is.... It'll hit ya quick and it's hard to react.... Ca$h BillyJoe.... Ca$h.... OR at very least, get the heck out of your margin.

Relax guys. Just short the QQQQs. BUY the JUN $45 puts and watch her fall down. Go pass go, collect $200 :D

SHORT GM. What a dead dog.

[Lyehopper]

What am I missing?
"The GoJi".....lol

Seriously.... how about CEDC? Plus I like their weekly chart dude.

Great idea BillyJoe! Let me think about this thing some more.

[Rob]

CEDC? You and I both made a bundle on that one a few years ago, didn't we, Lye? Is it looking strong again?

BTW ... check your PM's, dude.

[Shadow]

I'm spooked by this market Gator. I'm afraid to be a bull and I'm afraid to be a bear.... I HATE THIS MARKET RIGHT NOW!!!! Reminds me of 2000. I'd love to see a rate cut.... but on the other hand oil prices are driving inflation and I don't see a cut while that's going on. AND earnings are still coming in strong driving the market upward. This is just screwed up! I feel like becoming a day trader here.

I second that opinion. I'm about ready to run for cover.
Just call me wimpy.

[New-born baby]

Aren't you glad you left SIRF? You'll be more glad when earnings come in because, the way this stock is acting, it is going up.

[Lyehopper]

CEDC? You and I both made a bundle on that one a few years ago, didn't we, Lye? Is it looking strong again?

BTW ... check your PM's, dude.
Yep we did.... nuttin' like profiting from alcoholic Eastern Europeans....jejeje.... and if I recall correctly, it was one of your HUUUUGE picks too Rockin'Rob.

Dude.... Check out that volume surge on Friday.

[Lyehopper]

I have been buying this stock for while. I just added shares @ $4.35 so I'll make it a featured pick here. I will be holding it thru earnings tomorrow.

Rob just sent me a custom program to keep up with my picks. I'll post them in a few minutes.

Rockin'Rob, you are HUUUUGE!!!! Thanks Again!

[spikefader]

Comments fellas on SIRF short right here?.... (reports tomorrow after the bell)Dude, I think it's a great short, as per the setup I posted here (http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/04/sirf-try-surfing-off-this.html). It's now down to 38.00 so that 2% risk has increased to 5% risk if your stop is over resistance at 40.00. I'd be taking 2% risk with it personally. But while 40.00 holds I think it's a shot duck. Good luck.

[Lyehopper]

Here's is a current update of my featured trades here. I will post two seperate charts later tonight with the totals for my open and closed trades. Only the closed trades are total'd on this chart.

My average return for the five closed trades....

4.47%.... total average return

430.11%.... annualized return

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/1040/roundup424060xi.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

Dude, I think it's a great short, as per the setup I posted here (http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/04/sirf-try-surfing-off-this.html). It's now down to 38.00 so that 2% risk has increased to 5% risk if your stop is over resistance at 40.00. I'd be taking 2% risk with it personally. But while 40.00 holds I think it's a shot duck. Good luck.
I tend to agree Spike.... But there's this big HUUUUGE "what-if" hanging out there..... The Report!!!! It could be a coin toss here, I've seen em go both ways..... If a fella could accurately predict earnings plays using TA..... he'd be a Kazillionare.lol

Hey!!!! now there's a new hot thread.... AND FUN!!!! "Predicting earnings plays using TA".... Who wants to start it?.... Spike?

[billyjoe]

Lye,
Interesting that you should mention ACTU. It first appeared in week 3 of my cheap stock thread last Nov.28th at 3.35 and is also on my list this week at 4.65. Another stock that was in week 2 (Nov.19th) at 4.98 and still is on this week at about 7.00 is SPIL . The cheap stock port averaged over 30% during a 10 week period ending in late January.
I've got 9 stocks in my current test portfolio and am tracking them for a 5 week period. So far they're doing very good. If it shows great gains this time, I'm going to be buying and probably be holding in 10 stock blocks. Haven't determined a maximum # of stocks or exactly how to shuffle in new candidates yet. ACTU was the only stock on the list with two ** , but I can't remember what it meant.

billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Lye-baby.
BUY SIRF and sell those $35 MAY calls at $4.60 . . . then you won't lose any money on it. :D

[billyjoe]

Lye,
As far as earnings go , I think price stability in a cheap stock , especially one selling for as low as 4.50 such as ACTU is very significant. No big drops over a 6 month period tells me the stock has more than hype going for it.
billyjoe

[spikefader]

I tend to agree Spike.... But there's this big HUUUUGE "what-if" hanging out there..... The Report!!!! It could be a coin toss here, I've seen em go both ways..... If a fella could accurately predict earnings plays using TA..... he'd be a Kazillionare.lol

Hey!!!! now there's a new hot thread.... AND FUN!!!! "Predicting earnings plays using TA".... Who wants to start it?.... Spike?Good idea for a blog! hehe, but no, if someone wants to throw a thread up here I'll refrain.

But on SIRF, yep, sure earnings are tricky. They can also pay nicely. If I were you, I'd be shorting the pop on earnings up around 39.15-39.50 area. I am. :D

And if it's OK Lye, if you don't want it, I'll take it in POTW sometime this week! :D

Updated short chart for SIRF here (http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/04/sirf-short.html)

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Interesting that you should mention ACTU. It first appeared in week 3 of my cheap stock thread last Nov.28th at 3.35 and is also on my list this week at 4.65. Another stock that was in week 2 (Nov.19th) at 4.98 and still is on this week at about 7.00 is SPIL . The cheap stock port averaged over 30% during a 10 week period ending in late January.
I've got 9 stocks in my current test portfolio and am tracking them for a 5 week period. So far they're doing very good. If it shows great gains this time, I'm going to be buying and probably be holding in 10 stock blocks. Haven't determined a maximum # of stocks or exactly how to shuffle in new candidates yet. ACTU was the only stock on the list with two ** , but I can't remember what it meant.

billyjoe
When I started buying ACTU I ran a search to see who had ever mentioned it here. I found where you had it in the "Cheap Stocks" thread and IIC had it in his "MoMo" a few times. Never have seen it really singled out though.

BillyJoe?... What do you think of the Earnings TA deal dude?.... Now that would be a fun thread.... and allow us to focus on stocks that are currently reporting or are about to report earnings. I like it ALOT!

[Lyehopper]

Good idea for a blog! hehe, but no, if someone wants to throw a thread up here I'll refrain.

But on SIRF, yep, sure earnings are tricky. They can also pay nicely. If I were you, I'd be shorting the pop on earnings up around 39.15-39.50 area. I am. :D

And if it's OK Lye, if you don't want it, I'll take it in POTW sometime this week! :D

Updated short chart for SIRF here (http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/04/sirf-short.html)
I already have a pick dude (another earnings play)....

First come first served dude.... Ain't no manners in the POTW.lol.... Go for it!

[spikefader]

hehe thnx dude.

[billyjoe]

Lye,
I don't believe it's possible to predict earnings using TA . Even if you could, it would probably backfire. Haven't you had stocks that seemed to tank after great earnings report? If we could predict earnings and load up buying based on prediction, results could be disastrous. Just last year, FDG had a great report and tanked just because the report stated there was a shortage of special tires needed for the coal hauling trucks that would last at least 18 months. Starmine has earnings prediction surprises and whisper numbers. If you buy based on those numbers you'll find the surprise is already priced into the stock and therefore not a surprise. It's a crap shoot IMO.

billyjoe

[spikefader]

Lye,
I don't believe it's possible to predict earnings using TA . Even if you could, it would probably backfire. Haven't you had stocks that seemed to tank after great earnings report? If we could predict earnings and load up buying based on prediction, results could be disastrous. Just last year, FDG had a great report and tanked just because the report stated there was a shortage of special tires needed for the coal hauling trucks that would last at least 18 months. Starmine has earnings prediction surprises and whisper numbers. If you buy based on those numbers you'll find the surprise is already priced into the stock and therefore not a surprise. It's a crap shoot IMO.

billyjoeBut at the end of the day all trading is a crapshoot billyjoe, I mean ya never know which way a stock is going to go, whether it's earnings or not, and no matter how much TA might support the move. Perfect lookin' TA, and perfect counts, and perfect VTP picks (jeje) will just fail a certain percentage of the time. Noone can argue or debate this point. It is the nature of speculation. And I think any TAer who thinks they can predict anything is smokin' bat doo-doo.

But ..... I'd rather trade in the direction of the TA than not. That's one edge I think I have, and that edge allows me to leverage another edge, i.e. applying great risk/reward parameters, where I draw my line in the sand and control the trade to a specific plan. There's the battle; how good is your plan and how good do you execute against it. It's not the uncertainty of post-earnings price movement that is the problem. The problem is accepting that nothing is certain, even if the news is outstandingly good. The fact remains that deep pockets may have got the whisper of the good news in the month leading up to it, bought into it heavy and run the price up that month, with the very intention of selling hard into the strength of optimistic chasers, perhaps the little people who buy simply because the report is good, not thinking about where it sits TA-wise, whether it's at resistance, certainly not knowing what the big boys are doing with the stock. Cuz those deep pockets do arguably control what happens afterhours. Or if there are no big boys interested in the stock, then it's down to the battle between every other market participant and where the majority lies, and how strong their intent is, and normal market price discovery. And there is absolutely no way to know what the majority is gonna do. The majority isn't how many traders believe something, how many forum participants think the good news should be bought or sold, the majority is whoever has the bigger volume to move and with what kind of intent. And we can't know that for any issue. So thus is speculation.

The only real significant difference with earnings is the increased volatility that is naturally a consequence of lighter traded volume and emotional orders that people tend to submit. Specialists take advantage of that, and retail traders without experience are usually the victims.

Afterhours can be madness...and so slippage is gonna be more if you're using market orders, or you may have to get cute with price and play the support resistance game to get out at a good location if you're using a stop limit order and price pops over it or under it depending on whether you're short or long.

I personally have come to believe the best way to play earnings is to be flat going into the announcement (or very well hedged), and then use outrageous bids or asks at extreme areas; volatility bands are good for this. And when the volatile move that usually follows earnings releases does come, you're sitting at the extreme ranges, that you've defined your risk and target areas, and thus you have an edge over others. What you're doing is looking to catch the reversal area for the nice 1-evening trade, or if you're real clever and catch the reversal area well you can swing it for days and make great profit.

And a perfect example of what I'm talking about is AMD the other day. See this post (http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/04/amd-earnings-play-tonight-short-side.html), and this post (http://spikefader.blogspot.com/2006/04/amd-almost.html) for details. This chart (http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/4010/amdalmost8ah.gif) shows the pop up on earnings, that got sold. And it was good for a +17% short move in 2 days. Just missed that one, but it is a good example of what I'm talking about. I used TA to form the bias on the chart, I set up the plan to exploit the volatility, with defined risk of 4%, a r/r of 7.8, and 2-day target after heavy selling. I was $0.20 off and missed, but the plan was perfect in all other aspects.

So if you were to ask me if you can use TA to predict earnings I'd say of course not.

But ask me if one can use TA to trade earnings? Then I think you know my answer to that one. It's just another trade with another clever plan. Lord knows how it's gonna turn out.

Best to ya!

[billyjoe]

Lyehopper,
Hope you can answer this question. What's the difference between corn liquor and ethanol ? Can either be safely consumed ? Ethanol costs about .93 / gallon to produce. We drank something in college that burned with a pale blue flame , but it was costly. How much does it cost to produce a gallon of Goji Brandy?

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lyehopper,
Hope you can answer this question. What's the difference between corn liquor and ethanol ? Can either be safely consumed ? Ethanol costs about .93 / gallon to produce. We drank something in college that burned with a pale blue flame , but it was costly. How much does it cost to produce a gallon of Goji Brandy?

billyjoe
I guess the biggest difference the amount of love and attention given to the mfg process BillyJoe.... Remember, brandy is distilled from fruit.... Whiskey is distilled from grain.... Fruit costs more than grain. So brandy costs more than whiskey. I've never drunk any ethanol but I sent Webs a jar of it.... Ask him how it was.jejeje

Now.... If you're makin' grain alchohol for .93 per gallon (at what proof does it cost .93 I wonder?) you've probibly got a little bigger operation than your basic Bedford County 30 gallon copper pot.

[IIC]

We drank EverClear grain Alcohol in college...190 proof...They don't sell it in CA...But they did in NE...as I recall...it wasn't cheap...IIC

[New-born baby]

Lye,
When you sober up, take a look at SIRF. Aren't you smart--to dump that one?
Nice $1.24 pop this morn. "

No, I am not shorting this one right now.

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
When you sober up, take a look at SIRF. Aren't you smart--to dump that one?
Nice $1.24 pop this morn. "

No, I am not shorting this one right now.
Hic!.... I'm is schmart.... I loooooove you maaaaaan.

Seriously.... I think it'll tank after hours today.... but I'm a little skeered right now to trade er short.

[New-born baby]

Hic!.... I'm is schmart.... I loooooove you maaaaaan.

Seriously.... I think it'll tank after hours today.... but I'm a little skeered right now to trade er short.

You could be right. In fact, I'd like to see a pullback. She's at resistance now. If that resistance can hold, I'll feel pretty good at it all.

Tried to short PARL; no shares available to short with IB.

[Lyehopper]

Yep about 50% of PARL's float is sold short.... If it ever breaks out on HUUUUGE volume it'll be another TZOO rocket....

Look at my ACTU....jejeje

[Lyehopper]

It'll rise to right below $40 today on moderate volume.... After hours it'll spike up about 4% above $40.... Then base about ten minutes.... and CRASH!... Longs gotta hate that gap this morning.... That's a warning sign if there ever was one imo.

[New-born baby]

It'll rise to right below $40 today on moderate volume.... After hours it'll spike up about 4% above $40.... Then base about ten minutes.... and CRASH!... Longs gotta hate that gap this morning.... That's a warning sign if there ever was one imo.

Pulling back now.
Question: why not take the $5 for the MAY $35 calls, and watch SIRF pullback. Then you could cover at a profit . . .

[spikefader]

NB, SIRF is goin' down! hehe seriously, I dunno.

But Lye's plan back there is perfect I think. Short the pop is definately the way I'm reading it. I feel pretty good about waking up to nice POTW green tomorrow anyway. I'll have my boxing glove ready just in case though hehe

[Lyehopper]

I bought PARL again just now....jejeje

I'm speculating a little here.... but I think it's moving back up.

[New-born baby]

NB, SIRF is goin' down! hehe

I agree. I was urging Lye-baby to sell SIRF $35 calls "naked." Cover 'em up later when she dumps further. An alternate play, and safer, is to sell the $45 MAY calls naked for $80. Lots of resistance between here and $45, don't you think?

[New-born baby]

I bought PARL again just now....jejeje

I'm speculating a little here.... but I think it's moving back up.

PARL? Here?
Look at that volume--almost non-existent.
When does Paris report earnings, anyway?

I think your call on SIRF is going to be right on. The stock is dying a slow death this afternoon :D

[billyjoe]

Lye,
Just found the discussion about groups on Ski's thread , I was not able to get to the computer in early April. Can you tell us some of your thinking and strategy in using group strength to select potential stocks? IBD seems to suggest picking from the top 20% of groups , but it seems that a group making an accelerating advance in standing would show more strength. Thanks

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

PARL? Here?
Look at that volume--almost non-existent.
When does Paris report earnings, anyway?

I think your call on SIRF is going to be right on. The stock is dying a slow death this afternoon :D
PARL is one of thos stocks you just got to be familiar with. I'll bet I've made a hundred trades on this thing in the past three years.

I'd rather see a stock faking weakness before earnings than rally right up to the wire. The weaker it looks this afternoon..... the more likely it explodes and runs up past resistance after hours..... Take a look at ACTU faking weakness here. I'd sell it if it kept running up before the close today.... Actually I like this selling.

[spikefader]

It'll rise to right below $40 today on moderate volume.... After hours it'll spike up about 4% above $40.... Then base about ten minutes.... and CRASH!... Longs gotta hate that gap this morning.... That's a warning sign if there ever was one imo.I think it'll pop to around 39.80-40.20 area and then sell hard. My bias for that is +4% over 40.20; while price stays over that area and I'm neutral.

[Lyehopper]

I think it'll pop to around 39.80-40.20 area and then sell hard. My bias for that is +4% over 40.20; while price stays over that area and I'm neutral.
Initial pop is down....

[Lyehopper]

SIRF could rally here Spike.... seems like a lot of green picking it up @-5%

[spikefader]

Initial pop is down....Yup, and a pop down is bad for it. Afterhours chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/SIRFplunge.html)

[Lyehopper]

ACTU's first pop is up..... hmmmmmmmm... maybe it will rally too.LOL!!!! Well!!!! since I own it what do ya want me to say?

This earnings action is fun!.... We need that earnings thread!

[spikefader]

SIRF could rally here Spike.... seems like a lot of green picking it up @-5%I think it's toast down to $26.00 in 3 days. Considering whether short at 38.00 from here would be worth it....

Daily Chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/SIRFAP24.html)from the other day

[spikefader]

ACTU uh oh (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/ACTUAp25.html)

[Lyehopper]

ACTU uh oh (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/ACTUAp25.html)
Not to worry.... Read the report.... This little company is HOT!.... The CC starts in ten minutes @ 5:00 EST.... Oughta listen to it dude.

[spikefader]

SIRF: oh boy......now hitting 32.20! lol

Chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/SIRFdown2.html)

[Lyehopper]

I think it's toast down to $26.00 in 3 days. Considering whether short at 38.00 from here would be worth it....

Daily Chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/SIRFAP24.html)from the other day
AHHHHHHHH!!!! goin your way now dude!!!!

SEE ain't this fun! CRASH you Puppy.... CRASH!!!!..... oh sorry NBB

[spikefader]

jeje yup. 34.00 failed, so this is a shot duck I think. Now the 4 up to the 35.00 resistance perhaps.......and if I'm really lucky it'll do the 5th and then gap down lol

[spikefader]

Not to worry.... Read the report.... This little company is HOT!.... The CC starts in ten minutes @ 5:00 EST.... Oughta listen to it dude.Shoo! I just realized ACTU is a Creme of the Crop 6 participant! Of course it's gonna be OK lol! Seriously though, I think 4.00 would be an absolute steal for it, and it traded down there and is bouncing now...

[New-born baby]

AHHHHHHHH!!!! goin your way now dude!!!!

SEE ain't this fun! CRASH you Puppy.... CRASH!!!!..... oh sorry NBB

No sweat to me==yet! We shall see what tomorrow brings. Selling calls thicker than bugs on your bumper!

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Just found the discussion about groups on Ski's thread , I was not able to get to the computer in early April. Can you tell us some of your thinking and strategy in using group strength to select potential stocks? IBD seems to suggest picking from the top 20% of groups , but it seems that a group making an accelerating advance in standing would show more strength. Thanks

billyjoe
Vector-Vest allows me to view industry groups just as I would individual stocks (charts and FA). Basically I try to find a group that's exhibiting similar qualities that I like in a stock.... Then I search within the group for stocks that "turn my crank". Many times I look for groups that are just begining their move up or that are technically promising.

I'll revisit this topic later on and post some examples.... If I forget just remind me BillyJoe. Seems that I forget alot of things lately.

[New-born baby]

jeje yup. 34.00 failed, so this is a shot duck I think. Now the 4 up to the 35.00 resistance perhaps.......and if I'm really lucky it'll do the 5th and then gap down lol

Spike,
I know this is a lot of trouble, but could you draw a chart with target on SIRF for me, pretty please? I need to figure out where to have my beagle look for this shot duck :D PnF says $28 . . .

[Lyehopper]

I ticked at myself for not holding this SIRF short play. Technically it was a nobrainer imo.... AND I spotted it about three weeks ago too!

But hey!.... I learned something....

Bright side.... Ain't too late to profit from this stocks slide. I'll wait for a proper entry.

Spike! Keep posting activily here on SIRF.... I want your opinion of a great entry now..... btw HUUUUGE call on that Diamond bearish top with broadining bearish pattern dude. HUUUUGE!!!!

[spikefader]

Spike,
I know this is a lot of trouble, but could you draw a chart with target on SIRF for me, pretty please? I need to figure out where to have my beagle look for this shot duck :D PnF says $28 . . .Hiya NB. I'll do a fresh one for you, but in the meantime here is the targeting chart I did recently (http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4248/2541/1600/SIRF%20Ap14.jpg).

[New-born baby]

Hiya NB. I'll do a fresh one for you, but in the meantime here is the targeting chart I did recently (http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4248/2541/1600/SIRF%20Ap14.jpg).

Spike,
You are absolutely wonderful! I have gained so much good from you--I thank you. :D

[Lyehopper]

Spike,
I know this is a lot of trouble, but could you draw a chart with target on SIRF for me, pretty please? I need to figure out where to have my beagle look for this shot duck :D PnF says $28 . . .
Hey NBB.... Here's the link to my origional thoughts on SIRF.... Scroll down a few posts and you'll see a chart with my Fibonacci Retracement/Gap target.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?p=46330&highlight=sirf+short#post46330

[New-born baby]

Hey NBB.... Here's the link to my origional thoughts on SIRF.... Scroll down a few posts and you'll see a chart with my Fibonacci Retracement/Gap target.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?p=46330&highlight=sirf+short#post46330

Thanks, Lye-baby.
Now please pop on over to "Options' thread and watch how I am playing this loser :D IF SIRF falls down to $30, I stand to make $3 per share on her.

[Lyehopper]

Thanks, Lye-baby.
Now please pop on over to "Options' thread and watch how I am playing this loser :D IF SIRF falls down to $30, I stand to make $3 per share on her.
Groovy dude.... I gotta start doin' that.

[spikefader]

I ticked at myself for not holding this SIRF short play. Technically it was a nobrainer imo.... AND I spotted it about three weeks ago too!

But hey!.... I learned something....

Bright side.... Ain't too late to profit from this stocks slide. I'll wait for a proper entry.

Spike! Keep posting activily here on SIRF.... I want your opinion of a great entry now..... btw HUUUUGE call on that Diamond bearish top with broadining bearish pattern dude. HUUUUGE!!!!Thanks for the props, dude. :)

Yup, it's easy to look for the boxing glove in times like this. You had it and you gave it up to protect yourself from something you thought was very real; risk of volatility against you. And it's wise to be flat or hedged for earnings plays. So if you'd hedged, you'd be out the cost of the calls and that would have reduced this 10% gain some. Anyway, just put it down as an educational expense and modify the fear factor in future. But that said, being flat is still a position and you only lost opportunity in order to take a protective stance. And this still has 26% profit from these levels in my current view, so you've lossed only a third of the trip; you caught the slow bus while brave souls drove in the sportscar with the nut at the wheel. :D

Now today, the market sold the pivot hard on volume, and the fuzzy count has this morning's high up near the pivot as the 'c'. My stop on this short bias sits above that 'C' at 35.64.

The next valid short play today is the intraday pivot of 35.33 with sub 1% risk to target 26% is r/r of 26 and real nice.

If that setup fails there is sure to be better entries today and I'll post if I see 'em!

And don't forget that ze market might just hit the combined buy button on such a big overnight discount, so don't get too loose with stops everyone.

From experience, earnings flops like this do have a tendancy to trade frustratingly from this point in time for the next couple of hours until all the chop is out of it and it acts slippery for the last few hours. So ya got plenty of time, and you'll probably see several strong shows of strength you'll be able to leverage. So stalk those patient trades like the cool cats yall are :D

As I type, it's selling pretty hard from that pivot still; boy, it looks sick. But patience!

[New-born baby]

Thanks, Lye-baby.
Now please pop on over to "Options' thread and watch how I am playing this loser :D IF SIRF falls down to $30, I stand to make $3 per share on her.

I should say it this way, IF SIRF is between $30 and $35, I stand to make at least $3 per share.

[spikefader]

And I do note everyone that there is 23.35 gap support from Sept 05, which is 31% below current prices. Plenty of time to make the bus :D

[New-born baby]

And I do note everyone that there is 23.35 gap support from Sept 05, which is 31% below current prices. Plenty of time to make the bus :D

lollololololol
Is this the next BEL? I mean, $2.60 for a bottom?

[spikefader]

OK, this is an aggressive short setup at 34.00 volume resistance, to coincide with a smaller fuzzy 'c'. With 1% stop which sits just above that last price resistance. Great r/r that.

http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/SIRFAp26.gif

[Lyehopper]

OK, this is an aggressive short setup at 34.00 volume resistance, to coincide with a smaller fuzzy 'c'. With 1% stop which sits just above that last price resistance. Great r/r that.

http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/SIRFAp26.gif
AHHHHHHH!!!!! I don't beleive it!!!! LOOK FELLAS!!!! no link!.... SPIKEFADER POSTS AN ACTUAL CHART!!!!! YEE HAAAAAAAAAAA!!!! lol.... just ribbin'ya dude.jejeje

[spikefader]

Here's the setup I'm lookin' at:

http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/SIRFAp26short.gif

[New-born baby]

Spike,
I have SIRF calculated for a $34.55 high between now and the close. Reverse head and shoulders forming now. Realize that's a rough estimate, but that will give us some idea where to look.

[spikefader]

AHHHHHHH!!!!! I don't beleive it!!!! LOOK FELLAS!!!! no link!.... SPIKEFADER POSTS AN ACTUAL CHART!!!!! YEE HAAAAAAAAAAA!!!! lol.... just ribbin'ya dude.jejeje:D Ya, charity starts at home jejeje

[Lyehopper]

lollololololol
Is this the next BEL? I mean, $2.60 for a bottom?
Nope.... It's the next OVTI (look at OVTI early March 2004).... It's just too expensive right now.... Jump on it hard after this retracement is done.... maybe this fall or early next year after interest in it waines....

[spikefader]

OK, NB, thanks. I'm gonna read over your thread for sure to pick up whatever nuggets of gold you lay out there :D

OK, tested the '4', popped over it, and current prices present the 1% risk play. It's one of those jumping mouse moments :D

[alice4321us]

So much interest in SIRF. Can anyone start a thread on SIRF only. Would be easy to track the posts.

[spikefader]

http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/smart%20mouse.jpg Who's gonna go in for the cheese? :D

http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/SIRFAp26shortb.gif

[New-born baby]

SIRF is building a base at $34 from which to move higher.

[New-born baby]

Here's the 1 minute chart for today. If it breaks the neck . . . .
http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/5976/chart13nc.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

I say we try to get Lye's thread to 100K today. jeje

SIRF is building a base at $34 from which to move higher.C is a C until it ain't. I note the symm triangle since the drop last night; with price sitting right on the volume support area of 34.00. Base or cliff? One of the two, no doubt. Intraday resistances at 34.50 and then the pivot 35.33. The pivot is stalk territory for another 1% risk if this C fails. If 34.00 price support gives it up, the potential sets up for slippery selling the next 2-3 days. I'm goin' to meditate now so I'll be back later to see how many posts yall have gotten this up to hehehe

[New-born baby]

I say we try to get Lye's thread to 100K today. jeje

C is a C until it ain't. I note the symm triangle since the drop last night; with price sitting right on the volume support area of 34.00. Base or cliff? One of the two, no doubt. Intraday resistances at 34.50 and then the pivot 35.33. The pivot is stalk territory for another 1% risk if this C fails. If 34.00 price support gives it up, the potential sets up for slippery selling the next 2-3 days. I'm goin' to meditate now so I'll be back later to see how many posts yall have gotten this up to hehehe

There are lots of traders watch this action this morning! Which way to go. Which way to go.

This baby is a dead mice. It is going to collapse after a show of strength. "Dead mouse bounce."

[spikefader]

Perhaps NB. It sure ain't actin' like a bullish stock. Failed ascending triangle intraday, with the C at 34.40 holding fast after 3 tests of it. But there may be games today for SIRF, with stops being run only to have breakouts sold into. If it ever gets to the pivot, that's a real nice place for people who don't like the 'C' short play to consider exposing to 1% risk. The numbers are way in your favor. And frankly, NB, I really think you're on the wrong side of this and wish you best of luck to extricate yourself. I do note reg channel support at 33.00 area... but I think it's gonna trend down for the rest of the week.

[alice4321us]

Has anyone looked at IIIN. this thing has been falling for days now. I seems to keep falling of the cliff. Charts anyone?

[DSteckler]

An extended Wave 3 of an impulse move lower, Alice. Expect support between 35 and 39.

[alice4321us]

An extended Wave 3 of an impulse move lower, Alice. Expect support between 35 and 39.

Thanks Dave. Lets see some charts now. NBB/Spike/Lye.

[Lyehopper]

Thanks Dave. Lets see some charts now. NBB/Spike/Lye.
say please....

http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/4403/iiin6ur.png (http://imageshack.us)

[alice4321us]

say please....

http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/4403/iiin6ur.png (http://imageshack.us)


Lye

Didn't say "please" But THANK YOU for the chart. :)

[billyjoe]

Lye,
I think the word is out on Gehl's Oil Sands Ex-Tractor.

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I think the word is out on Gehl's Oil Sands Ex-Tractor.

billyjoe
LOL.... Did you tell?

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I think the word is out on Gehl's Oil Sands Ex-Tractor.

billyjoe
Hey BillyJoe.... Read the Yahooo board for GEHL dude.jejeje

Seem that our bud Jim Crammer plugged GEHL as an "Ethanol play"?.... Well I guess it could be in a "round-about way".... Some corn producers might own a GEHL manure spreader I guess.LOL!!!! WoooooHooooo!!!!

Just wait till he finds out about the Oil Sands Ex-Tractor....

[billyjoe]

Lye,
Crammer just doesn't do his homework like us, ha , ha .

billyjoe

[lemonjello]

BAC looks good here buyback, breakout, interest rates hikes could slow - whadda yous guys think?

[Lyehopper]

BAC looks good here buyback, breakout, interest rates hikes could slow - whadda yous guys think?
It's ok I guess Lem, a solid bank.... But I like companies with a higher growth rate. and higher RV than BAC....

Keep any eye now on CVGI and JAH....

PARL too.... just be very careful with this one.

[New-born baby]

BAC looks good here buyback, breakout, interest rates hikes could slow - whadda yous guys think?

If chart patterns mean anything to you, you have a cup with handle breakout targetting $57. That bull flagpole is a powerful sign that the chart pattern is good.

[Lyehopper]

PARL's ready to bust wide a$$ open fellas (imo). I tried to short it again.... shares just ain't there!

If we get a short squeeze here on heavy volume?.... you got another TZOO....

4.5 million shares are sold short and hardly any shares available to borrow to contuinue the downward pressure. AND fundamentally a powerhouse stock worth $60 on clearance sale for $27 and some change.jejeje.... I got me a sweet position well below $27.

Volume is lackluster.... You'll notice that 1,000 shares bought will elevate the price over 1% and it takes 5k sold to bring it back down 1%.... I've seen it do this before right before a big volume break out.

If you want to buy it, let the price come to you.... Don't buy it with market orders. AND BE FREAKIN' PATIENT!!!!

NOTE: this is a VOLITILE STOCK!!!! It will bite you in the butt!!!! You are warned!!!! Be careful!

[skiracer]

PARL's ready to bust wide a$$ open fellas (imo). I tried to short it again.... shares just ain't there!

If we get a short squeeze here on heavy volume?.... you got another TZOO....

4.5 million shares are sold short and hardly any shares available to borrow to contuinue the downward pressure. AND fundamentally a powerhouse stock worth $60 on clearance sale for $27 and some change.jejeje.... I got me a sweet position well below $27.

Volume is lackluster.... You'll notice that 1,000 shares bought will elevate the price over 1% and it takes 5k sold to bring it back down 1%.... I've seen it do this before right before a big volume break out.

If you want to buy it, let the price come to you.... Don't buy it with market orders. AND BE FREAKIN' PATIENT!!!!

NOTE: this is a VOLITILE STOCK!!!! It will bite you in the butt!!!! You are warned!!!! Be careful!

Lye,
You get everyone excited with the first few paragraphs of your post and then when they are ready to buy into what you're saying you say be I'd be real careful of the snake that could be hiding in the grass.

[alice4321us]

say please....

http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/4403/iiin6ur.png (http://imageshack.us)

This thing dropped almost 10% today ?? Any more room for this.

[DSteckler]

This thing dropped almost 10% today ?? Any more room for this.

See my post from yesterday, Alice.

[alice4321us]

See my post from yesterday, Alice.

Dave

Thanks for that. I missed to Thank you too!!

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
You get everyone excited with the first few paragraphs of your post and then when they are ready to buy into what you're saying you say be I'd be real careful of the snake that could be hiding in the grass.
I put the words be careful in the title of my post. So you should have read the post with that already in mind.

I think this is the first post you've made to my thread. Thanks for visiting. Why haven't you posted sooner?.... Too much "blabbering" here for you dude?

How's the ECOL workin' out for you Ed?.... I "blabbered" alot about that stock too.

[spikefader]

Hey alice! Always respect a gap down on volume. Also respect a "c" failure. IIIN has fallen out of the ugly tree and may be hitting every branch on the way down. Long is wrong right now. Stops save lives. Chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/IIINAp27.html).

Good luck!

[Lyehopper]

Here are my open and closed trades....

Average return for my closed trades is 4.47%

Annualized return is 430.11%

http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/6202/roundup427060bm.png (http://imageshack.us)

[gerihearne]

Here are my open and closed trades....

Average return for my closed trades is 4.47%

Annualized return is 430.11%

http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/6202/roundup427060bm.png (http://imageshack.us)

Lye, 430+ ... Mrs. Lye must be really lovin' u this year :)
Congrats
g

[DSteckler]

Lye, 430+ ... Mrs. Lye must be really lovin' u this year :)
Congrats
g

LOL! Annualized returns are meaningless.

[Lyehopper]

LOL! Annualized returns are meaningless.
This is true.lol Hopefully Geri understands what "annualized" actually means.... and that there is no real 430% gain here.

But it's kinda fun to see how quickly a particular gain was acheived don'tcha think Dave? Annualizing the gain kinda puts it in perspective imo.

Also.... The lists of my featured trades in no way reflect my actual portfolio performance. I have a pretty diverse portfolio and it would make no sense to post a play-by-play of every trade I make or every stock I own.

Example: I Re-entered ECOL in my real portfolio after I sold it here.... and I didn't post it. I also sold off a % of shares of ECOL after the initial breakout. I didn't post it here.... I also entered my initial position of ECOL at a much lower price than I posted here...

I just want to feature a limited number of trades (long and short) that I have researched and actually traded in real life and feel that they would make profitable trades for others. I'd also like to track the trades publicly and see what kind of performance I can get.

Anyone can post an endless supply tickers to watch. I wanted to make my thread a little different, I wanted to post my gainers and my losers and reflect my decision process as well.... You'll notice that my SIRF short trade was closed before earnings were released because I got cold feet, I did that in real life too....lol.... and I kicked my butt for it because I was right to predict the stocks slide....

That's one thing that I like about $$MM$$.... He lists his trades for all to see and keeps a track record (and he likes to track annualized returns too).... $$MM$$'s picks are "transparent", what you see is what you get.... That's why he's HUUUGE!!!!

[Lyehopper]

Lye, 430+ ... Mrs. Lye must be really lovin' u this year :)
Congrats
g
Actually Geri, Mrs Lye could care less about my stock trading. She loves me because.... uhhhhh.... well?.... I ain't exactly sure why she loves me.... but I'm pretty sure she does.... Crap!.... now you got me wondering.... It's Friday, I really need to take her out for a good time tonight.... don't I? Thanks Geri!

[Lyehopper]

Here are my open and closed trades....

Average return for my closed trades is 4.47%

Annualized return is 430.11%



http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/6202/roundup427060bm.png (http://imageshack.us/)


CVGI and JAH are moving up nicely now. I'm currently adding shares of both of these in my real life portfolio.

You can't argue with earnings and sales growth.... These two are real winners fellas.

[DSteckler]

JAH looks nice, Lye.

[gerihearne]

Actually Geri, Mrs Lye could care less about my stock trading. She loves me because.... uhhhhh.... well?.... I ain't exactly sure why she loves me.... but I'm pretty sure she does.... Crap!.... now you got me wondering.... It's Friday, I really need to take her out for a good time tonight.... don't I? Thanks Geri!

Please allow me to take a few shots at this: .... Mrs. Lye loves you because you're a big strong bear (when you're not a bull :). You're opinionated, but will listen to other sides of an issue, you're extremely generous (we know this by how openly you share your stock tips), and most important to Mrs. Lye, I'm only guessing, is your sense of humor. You are funny.

hmmm ... ask her if I got it right .. i'm curious :)

now you got me thinking .. maybe i belong in the relationship business, not the financial business :) :)

[New-born baby]

Lye,
I hope you got out of the way of this one. GEHL just dumped $4.78 off the top of their skid loader's bucket. Miss earnings?

[Jim Smith]

Another blown call by Cramer.....he said to buy GEHL this week.

[New-born baby]

Another blown call by Cramer.....he said to buy GEHL this week.

You just need to know how to use Jimmy Eugene: fade him always.

[Lyehopper]

Another blown call by Cramer.....he said to buy GEHL this week.
BillyJoe and me were talking about that a few posts back....

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=1289&page=30&pp=10

It seems Goof Ball Crammer thinks that GEHL is a good Ethanol play.LOL!!!! What an idiot! After the mention GEHL poped 6% after hours. I figured that the short sellers would swarm all over it after that.

I have been out of GEHL since I posted here that I sold it.

Nothing has changed at GEHL and it's still one of my favorites. I'll build me a new position when the smoke clears from Crammer's mention of the stock. I'd love to see it @ $28 again. We'll see.

[Websman]

BillyJoe and me were talking about that a few posts back....

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=1289&page=30&pp=10

It seems Goof Ball Crammer thinks that GEHL is a good Ethanol play.LOL!!!! What an idiot! After the mention GEHL poped 6% after hours. I figured that the short sellers would swarm all over it after that.

I have been out of GEHL since I posted here that I sold it.

Nothing has changed at GEHL and it's still one of my favorites. I'll build me a new position when the smoke clears from Crammer's mention of the stock. I'd love to see it @ $28 again. We'll see.

Cramer would make a great inmate. He seems to possess some traits that would make him popular in the shower...

[billyjoe]

OK Lye,
You got me on the middle name. I forgot to read the small print "without clues". I'm not disclosing my Christian middle name , but wouldn't you be shocked if it really was what some have called me......Jehoshaphat !!

billyj

[Lyehopper]

OK Lye,
You got me on the middle name. I forgot to read the small print "without clues". I'm not disclosing my Christian middle name , but wouldn't you be shocked if it really was what some have called me......Jehoshaphat !!

billyj
I've called you that many times, under my breath.

[spikefader]

Here are my open and closed trades....

Average return for my closed trades is 4.47%

Annualized return is 430.11%

http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/6202/roundup427060bm.png (http://imageshack.us)

Awesome stuff Lye congrats and thnx fer sharin' your picks.

On those numbers here is your equity curve, and goes to show you, one can be wrong 60% of the time and still make money! Ya just gotta cut the losers short!

Can't wait to see your next play.

http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/Lye%27s%20equity%20curve.gif

[IIC]

I don't mean to be nitpicky...but what is your formula to figure annualized returns?...Doug

[Lyehopper]

I don't mean to be nitpicky...but what is your formula to figure annualized returns?...Doug
How is asking a question "nitpicky".... Is there a part "B" that I havent heard yet?

Answer: I don't know, it's automatically figured by my HUUUGE custom computer program.... Ask Rob.... he wrote the program for me. But be warned!!!! you might wanna check your math again. It's been my experience that Rockin'Rob's smarter than "the average bear".

[Lyehopper]

Have you fellas seen this yet?.... Funny!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipJTqCbETog&eurl=&watch2

[DSteckler]

Lye, that's a hoot!

[Lyehopper]

I own this stock somewhat higher.... but I added to my position under $3.60 this morning. So I'll feature it at $3.60.

[Karel]

Lye, that is window dressing, but that clip is outrageous, so who cares!

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

Here's a chart of FUEL.... I hope to sell it for a 20% gain in less than two weeks. That is unless I sell it for a 10% loss first.lol.... Actually if I were smart I would have bought it Friday.... I saw that it finished the retracement Friday but I failed to react. drat!

http://img387.imageshack.us/img387/4576/fuel11fe.png (http://imageshack.us/)


As a side note.... Watch GEHL fellas.... I'll post a chart showing my buyback target in a little while.... When it finishes retracing I won't miss this one.

[Lyehopper]

Lye, that is window dressing....
I guess you could call it that Karel. jejeje

[mrmarket]

Have you fellas seen this yet?.... Funny!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipJTqCbETog&eurl=&watch2


That was clever..and the girls were hot.

[billyjoe]

Lye,
Vectorvest loves GEHL for what it's worth.

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Vectorvest loves GEHL for what it's worth.

billyjoe
So do I dude.... I really hope to buy it back just a little lower though.

ACTU is a good buy today imo.

[Lyehopper]

Are you fellas watching JAH?.... up another 4% today.

[Gatorman]

Are you fellas watching JAH?.... up another 4% today.
Nice volume too.

[Lyehopper]

Below $26 was a gift!.... Go PARL go!!!!

[Websman]

Below $26 was a gift!.... Go PARL go!!!!

Dang! I missed it....but it's not too late, I'll catch this %$@#@$#@$!

[dmk112]

Below $26 was a gift!.... Go PARL go!!!!

I would be selling this stregth, it's going to 22...IMO

[stenzrob]

I would be selling this stregth, it's going to 22...IMOSomeday, the shorts may get really badly hurt in PARL. In the meantime, though, holding any significant long position is simply too painful for me. Too many other small dips on the way down have looked like gifts, only to turn out to be another bag of flavored coffee (an unwelcome gift).

I lightened up my PARL position into the strength today at a net loss, keeping some so I don't kick myself too hard when some announcement or something is made that squeezes the shorts so hard that they squeal like the pigs that they are.

Used the proceeds to buy more FTEK.

[Lyehopper]

I would be selling this stregth, it's going to 22...IMO
Before or after earnings?.... What's your reasoning on it DMK?

If it goes to $22 after earnings?.... It'll crash on down to $15 or $16 I think.... It will do that or rally to $50.

[stenzrob]

If it goes to $22 after earnings?.... It'll crash on down to $15 or $16 I think.... It will do that or rally to $50.I don't know much about options, and don't play them, but isn't there some strategy with options that provides a profit if the stock moves a lot in either direction, but is a losing strategy only if it stagnates?

[IIC]

I don't know much about options, and don't play them, but isn't there some strategy with options that provides a profit if the stock moves a lot in either direction, but is a losing strategy only if it stagnates?

Straddle...Straggle...Strangle...Some name like that...Buy puts and calls on the same stock...Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

I don't know much about options, and don't play them, but isn't there some strategy with options that provides a profit if the stock moves a lot in either direction, but is a losing strategy only if it stagnates?
No options on PARL....

[jiesen]

that was an excellent call on CNXS a few days ago, Lye. wish I'd have picked up a few more shares then...

[Lyehopper]

that was an excellent call on CNXS a few days ago, Lye. wish I'd have picked up a few more shares then...
"Q" is a very wise investor.jejeje

[Lyehopper]

SNIFFFFFFF! what's that smell?...... ahhhhhhh! sweet PARL!....hehehe

[B.J]

SNIFFFFFFF! what's that smell?...... ahhhhhhh! sweet PARL!....hehehe
Excellent Lye! I'm thinking about buying on the next dip.

[Lyehopper]

I really like this little stock.... Should quietly move on up from here. 30% gain should be no problem.

[dmk112]

@PARL - just don't see it holding at these levels...where's the support dude?? But earnings change everything overnight so who knows. Are ou going to be holding through them?

[Lyehopper]

@PARL - just don't see it holding at these levels...where's the support dude?? But earnings change everything overnight so who knows. Are ou going to be holding through them?
Yep.... call me crazy.... But I just gotta do it dude....

[IIC]

OK...Rob seems to be back in circulation...So Rob, what is your "Annualized" Formula???...Makes no sense to me...thx...Doug(IIC)

[Rob]

(1+p)^(365/n)-1

where p = percentage gain and n = number of days.

Is there something wrong with it?

[Lyehopper]

(1+p)^(365/n)-1
You see Doug, we (in the "inner-circle") use these kind of formulas all the time for complex VTP searches.... Webs favorite key on his computer is the ^ ....

^^^^VTP FOREVER^^^^

[IIC]

(1+p)^(365/n)-1

where p = percentage gain and n = number of days.

Is there something wrong with it?

Well...maybe I'm confused here???

First of all you have the wrong G/L %'s for the 2 shorts...You used the close as the denominator instead of the open.

Now...Here is how I figure the annual percentage if we are to use 365 rather than the number of trading days available:

p*(365/n)

Lets take GEHL as an example:

23.62*(365/31)=278.11

And if you argue that he really only held it for 30 days then it is still only 287.38%

Am I missing something?...Doug(IIC)

[Rob]

First of all you have the wrong G/L %'s for the 2 shorts...You used the close as the denominator instead of the open.Here's the way it works: when there's an S in the L/S column the program takes the "open" price and puts in in the Proceeds column, since you are actually in receipt of funds from a sale when you open a short position. Then when you close it (i.e. you buy to cover), it enters the total closing price in the Cost column. Pretty cool, eh? From that point, it works just the same: Percent Gain = (Proceeds-Cost)/Cost.

Now...Here is how I figure the annual percentage if we are to use 365 rather than the number of trading days available:Of course you use 365. That's what "annual" means. You could use 365.25 if you want to split hairs. But if you buy 10,000 worth of XYZ on July 20 one year, and sell that same stock for 20,000 on July 20 the following year, then that equals 100% annual gain.

p*(365/n)

Lets take GEHL as an example:

23.62*(365/31)=278.11

Your formula does not compound the gain. This is similar to the objection Scifos raised on the way the POTW calculations are done. I agreed with Scifos at the time but said I would continue doing it the same way as Lye had been doing it, i.e. no compunding. But when you figure a compounded annualized return, each successive increment figures in the gains (or losses) from the previous one.

Back to the way the short gains are figured, I think you are correct that something is being misfigured, but I think it's the way it's been figured on the POTW. (Lye and I have been discussing this on the phone, but I had to cut it short because my wife was expecting a call. I'm calling Lye back again after I enter this post.)

When a short position is opened, there is no cost to you, only gains. The cost comes when you COVER. If you short 100 shares of a $1.00 stock and cover at $.50, your total cost is $50, and your total gain is $50, a 100% gain, right?

[billyjoe]

Wouldn't this work : TDY/TDH X %Gain or loss = annualized gain (or loss)

TDY= trading days in the year

TDH= trading days held

billyjoe

[skiracer]

I've always figured it that if you start the year on Jan. 1 with $100,000 in your trading account and you end the year with $125,000 in that account then you made $25,000 profit or $25,000 / $100,000 = 25 % gain. I like to keep it simple an if you have more than what you started with then you made a gain an if you have less than you started with then you made a loss for the year. I think alot of people make it to complicated by trying to make it look better by fooling around with the numbers.

[IIC]

Wouldn't this work : TDY/TDH X %Gain or loss = annualized gain (or loss)

TDY= trading days in the year

TDH= trading days held

billyjoe

Well...IMO it would...But Rob's post really enlightened me...Now I know how IBD comes up with all those wild-ass Percentage claims.

I'll give Rob the Short thing...but "componding" is not the actual annualized gain...it is a projected annualized gain assuming the same set of circumstances.

Maybe I should go back on My IIC Top 10 thing where I tell you what you would have made if you bot all of them at Monday's open and sold at Friday's close...As of 4/28 (I don't the 5/7 figure yet) it was +23% YTD...But if I assume you compounded each week it would be 1 million percent...LOL

[IIC]

I've always figured it that if you start the year on Jan. 1 with $100,000 in your trading account and you end the year with $125,000 in that account then you made $25,000 profit or $25,000 / $100,000 = 25 % gain. I like to keep it simple an if you have more than what you started with then you made a gain an if you have less than you started with then you made a loss for the year. I think alot of people make it to complicated by trying to make it look better by fooling around with the numbers.

I don't want Rob to take this personally...Because now I understand what he's doing...And it's not directed at him...But your post reminds me of one thing that my Dad always told me: "Liar's figure...But figures never lye"

[Lyehopper]

I don't want Rob to take this personally...Because now I understand what he's doing...And it's not directed at him...But your post reminds me of one thing that my Dad always told me: "Liar's figure...But figures never lye"
Figures never lye?.... You daddy's old saying is very strange....


Lye is a caustic solution used for glass and soap making. It may be:

sodium hydroxide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium_hydroxide) (soda (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soda) lye) or
less commonly, potassium hydroxide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_hydroxide) (potash (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash) lye).

Lye is a caustic solution used for glass sodium hydroxide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium_hydroxide) (soda (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soda) lye) or

less commonly, potassium hydroxide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_hydroxide) (potash (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash) lye).

[IIC]

Well...IMO it would...But Rob's post really enlightened me...Now I know how IBD comes up with all those wild-ass Percentage claims.

I'll give Rob the Short thing...but "componding" is not the actual annualized gain...it is a projected annualized gain assuming the same set of circumstances.

Maybe I should go back on My IIC Top 10 thing where I tell you what you would have made if you bot all of them at Monday's open and sold at Friday's close...As of 4/28 (I don't the 5/7 figure yet) it was +23% YTD...But if I assume you compounded each week it would be 1 million percent...LOL

Well...I just looked...the 23% is compounded...I don't personally do the math...So I didn't notice before.

[Rob]

I did a little searching around on the net, and I found a few items of interest.

Calculating annualized returns:
Investopedia.com (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/apy.asp) (This one shows the formula like the one I used.)
invest-faq.com (http://invest-faq.com/articles/analy-comp-return.html) (So does this one.)
gummy-stuff.org (http://www.gummy-stuff.org/petrovski.htm) (This one has a cool calculator you can use.)
If you want to see more, click here (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=formula+%22annualized+return%22&btnG=Search).

Now, with regard to calculating the return on a short position, according to this page (http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/maxreturnshortsale.asp) on Investopedia.com you're supposed to figure the return on the short using the PROCEEDS of the initial sale as the denominator, which is not the way I have it on Lye's Roundup spreadsheet. I kind of disagree with the logic, but I can switch it to work that way if that's the way it's conventionally figured.

[IIC]

Figures never lye?.... You daddy's old saying is very strange....


Lye is a caustic solution used for glass and soap making. It may be:

sodium hydroxide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium_hydroxide) (soda (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soda) lye) or
less commonly, potassium hydroxide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_hydroxide) (potash (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash) lye).
Lye is a caustic solution used for glass sodium hydroxide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium_hydroxide) (soda (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soda) lye) or

less commonly, potassium hydroxide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_hydroxide) (potash (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash) lye).


Oop's...Guess I made a spelling error...LOL

But I looked up caustic at Dictionary.com and it also means:

Corrosive and bitingly trenchant; cutting. See Synonyms at sarcastic (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=sarcastic).

BTW...Who gave you your nickname???

[Rob]

. . . you're supposed to figure the return on the short using the PROCEEDS of the initial sale as the denominator . . .By the way, that's the we HAVE been doing it on the POTW.

[Lyehopper]

Oop's...Guess I made a spelling error...LOL

But I looked up caustic at Dictionary.com and it also means:

Corrosive and bitingly trenchant; cutting. See Synonyms at sarcastic (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=sarcastic).

BTW...Who gave you your nickname???
Your Mama.....






























JUST KIDDING DOUG-E-FRESH!!!!JEJEJEJEEEEEEEE....errrrrrrrrrr....causti c

Actually last year I posted a little story here about that somewhere.

Lyehopper Hollow is an actual place on my farm. And I call my farm Lyehopper Hollow farm. I took up the handle Lyehopper several years ago on Yahoo.

[Rob]

Lyehopper Hollow is an actual place on my farm.And the correct pronunciation is "Lyehopper Holler."

[IIC]

UNBELIEVABLE!!!

I put in Lyehopper Hollow in Google...And My thread comes up as the 1st Listing:

http://img315.imageshack.us/img315/2245/lyehopper7qd.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[billyjoe]

Lye,
If Gehl made a lyehopper, what material would they use to prevent corrosion ?

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Doug,
Lots of you guys are becoming famous. Spikefader and Mr.Market also come up #1 in google. Who else ?

billyjoe


p.s. Quasi-Ernie has already skyrocketed to #1 on google , amazing !

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
If Gehl made a lyehopper, what material would they use to prevent corrosion ?

billyjoe
316 stainless steel....

[Websman]

Doug,
Lots of you guys are becoming famous. Spikefader and Mr.Market also come up #1 in google. Who else ?

billyjoe


p.s. Quasi-Ernie has already skyrocketed to #1 on google , amazing !

Vulcantraders .com comes up if you put in Vulcan traders, and if you put in Websman, I come up first...

[Lyehopper]

And the correct pronunciation is "Lyehopper Holler."
Nope ain't even that way Rob.... You gotta use a Montvale/Thaxton accent.... It's more like one word and really the "h" in hopper is silent.... Lyeoppaholla

As in....

(Neighbor sons) "Mr Lye?.... You don't mind if we run our coon dogs up lyeoppaholla tonight?.... you can come too if ya want?"

(Me) "No.... go right ahead fellas.... just ya'll be carefull and shut my gates."

[Rob]

It's more like one word and really the "h" in hopper is silent.... LyeoppahollaYeah, that's that lowlands, piedmont accent. My people come from up around Wise, Russell and Scott counties and speak with the highland accent. For those who've never been around this neck of the woods, there really is a difference, but it's kind of hard to explain it.

If that kind of stuff interests you though, go down to your local library and pick up a book called "Albion's Seed." I read it about 8 years ago or so. It's an awesome, awesome book.

[Lyehopper]

I did a little searching around on the net, and I found a few items of interest.

Calculating annualized returns:
Investopedia.com (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/apy.asp) (This one shows the formula like the one I used.)
invest-faq.com (http://invest-faq.com/articles/analy-comp-return.html) (So does this one.)
gummy-stuff.org (http://www.gummy-stuff.org/petrovski.htm) (This one has a cool calculator you can use.)
If you want to see more, click here (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=formula+%22annualized+return%22&btnG=Search).

Now, with regard to calculating the return on a short position, according to this page (http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/maxreturnshortsale.asp) on Investopedia.com you're supposed to figure the return on the short using the PROCEEDS of the initial sale as the denominator, which is not the way I have it on Lye's Roundup spreadsheet. I kind of disagree with the logic, but I can switch it to work that way if that's the way it's conventionally figured.
I agree that your way is the textbook correct method Rob.... But since you've got to change my spreadsheet for the short calculations anyhow.... Here's how I'd like my annualized return figured. Take a look at $$$Mr Market$$$'s personal home page. See how he figures his annualized returns? I want to be like $$$Mr Market$$$ because he's HUUUUGE!!!! So I want my return's calculated like his are....

[Rob]

But since you've got to change my spreadsheet for the short calculations anyhow.... Here's how I'd like my annualized return figured.Lawdy, lawdy! This seems like the opportune moment to bring this (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?p=42262) up. heh heh

I'll get you straightened out, Lye.

[Lyehopper]

Yeah, that's that lowlands, piedmont accent. My people come from up around Wise, Russell and Scott counties and speak with the highland accent. For those who've never been around this neck of the woods, there really is a difference, but it's kind of hard to explain it.

If that kind of stuff interests you though, go down to your local library and pick up a book called "Albion's Seed." I read it about 8 years ago or so. It's an awesome, awesome book.
There are many distinct southern accents that I know of. My folks are from eastern NC and that's what I speak.lol.... While my accent's pretty flat and fits in fine in Bedford County VA, it's very different from my fellow cattlemen in Southern Campbell County (Lynchburg) area.... They have the most unique southern accent I know of.... They say aboort for about.... and hoorse for house.... You know what I mean Rob?....lol

[Lyehopper]

Lawdy, lawdy! This seems like the opportune moment to bring this (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?p=42262) up. heh heh

I'll get you straightened out, Lye.
LOL!!!!.... Did I forget that?.... How about this week dude!?

See Skiracer and Ray Long!!!! you two ain't the only ones I've left hangin'.... Sometimes ol Lye needs a gentle reminder.jejeje

[IIC]

There are many distinct southern accents that I know of. My folks are from eastern NC and that's what I speak.lol.... While my accent's pretty flat and fits in fine in Bedford County VA, it's very different from my fellow cattlemen in Southern Campbell County (Lynchburg) area.... They have the most unique southern accent I know of.... They say aboort for about.... and hoorse for house.... You know what I mean Rob?....lol

This is America...Speak Spanish or Mandarin...Or at least English...What happened down South? How did they come up with your own language anyway?

[billyjoe]

Lye,
It's too bad these accents are dying out as people are not staying in one place long enough let alone generations in the same place. Of course being from north central Ohio , I have no accent. While working at a school in Wooster, Ohio (Amish Country) I started noticing several different Ohio accents. Each year would bring in a new class of mostly rural Ohio students. After a while I noticed a distinct Columbus accent as well as another accent from around Chillicothe Ohio (60 miles south of Columbus). Steubenville (far east central Ohio) is also very noticeable. My favorite accent I call the Kittanning Pa. accent. About 40 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, very similar to the Pittsburgh accent but they use what I call English terms that I had never heard before such as calling your rear end your "bum".
If anyone is interested in this I'd suggest a book called Moe Berg Catcher, Spy. This guy was a linguistic genius , a major league catcher, of whom it was said he could speak 7 different languages, but couldn't hit in any of them. He took secret movies of Tokyo before WW2 and spoke Japanese. He once faked his way past soviet police by flashing a red Texaco star. He reportedly spoke to a person exiting a cab in New York City and by their accent identified their small home town of 500 somewhere in the South.

billyjoe

[IIC]

Lye,
It's too bad these accents are dying out as people are not staying in one place long enough let alone generations in the same place. Of course being from north central Ohio , I have no accent. While working at a school in Wooster, Ohio (Amish Country) I started noticing several different Ohio accents. Each year would bring in a new class of mostly rural Ohio students. After a while I noticed a distinct Columbus accent as well as another accent from around Chillicothe Ohio (60 miles south of Columbus). Steubenville (far east central Ohio) is also very noticeable. My favorite accent I call the Kittanning Pa. accent. About 40 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, very similar to the Pittsburgh accent but they use what I call English terms that I had never heard before such as calling your rear end your "bum".
If anyone is interested in this I'd suggest a book called Moe Berg Catcher, Spy. This guy was a linguistic genius , a major league catcher, of whom it was said he could speak 7 different languages, but couldn't hit in any of them. He took secret movies of Tokyo before WW2 and spoke Japanese. He once faked his way past soviet police by flashing a red Texaco star. He reportedly spoke to a person exiting a cab in New York City and by their accent identified their small home town of 500 somewhere in the South.

billyjoe

You don't have an accent??? Well...I was born in California...I don't have an accent either...But what is this???...We all think we don't have an accent...But we all do...We just don't notice our own.

We also use diferent words...For example, I went to college in Nebraska...The accent except for the Farm hicks seemed the same to me...But one word I used to use when I went to the store was Market...I would say I'm going to the market...I got razed about that...They said grocery store...I said market. I think some back east said Super.

[DSteckler]

Fascinating book, Billyjoe. I read it a few years ago.

[billyjoe]

Doug,
I go to the store and buy pop . I'd never ask for soda and just by accident know what fraps and grinders are.

billyjoe

[Rob]

Okay, I'm revamping this thing, and another interesting question presents itself. The question hinges on whether it's possible to lose more than 100%. It is impossible to lose more than 100% on a long position, but not so on a short. So I'm figuring that if there's an "L" in the L/S column, the max annual loss will be 100%, however there will be no such restriction if there's an "S" in the L/S column. What do you say to that? Hmm?

[IIC]

Doug,
I go to the store and buy pop . I'd never ask for soda and just by accident know what fraps and grinders are.

billyjoe

Well...we call it "soft drinks"...or the generic "coke" no matter what it is.

One time my wife, son and I were at the LA Zoo in the 80's...At the snack bar this old guy w/ an obviously Eastern accent asked for a frankfurter...It was pretty funny...The High School girl working the counter had absolutely no idea what he was asking for...Until I blurted out..."He wants a Hot Dog"

[Rob]

Well, people from Pittsburgh, which used to be called Fort Duquense (sp?), say things like you'ns when they mean y'all, and they call rubber bands "gum bands," and stuff like that. And when they go out of the house, they say they are going ott the hoss.

When I lived in the Twin Cities, it was strange to me that they called Cokes "pops." And if a Minnesotan wants to go with you somewhere, he will say, "Can I go with?" Uh, excuse me, but isn't "go with" a transitive verb clause? Where's the object? :)

And L.A. is the only place I've ever been where I've heard the term "swap meet." They're "flea markets" just about everywhere else.

[billyjoe]

Rob,
I've lost 100% on a long position and !00% on a mutual fund and if you factor in brokers fees (before discount brokers) it was well over 100%. In both these cases there was fraud involved and one was settled with about 12% returned in a settlement. Without fees , it would be hard to lose more than100%. Theoretically, sure, annualized you could lose more than 100%, but it would be hard for a position to hit 0 during a one week period. They'd have to suspend trading , investigate, etc. I'd like to hear from anyone who lost more than 100%.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Well, people from Pittsburgh, which used to be called Fort Duquense (sp?), say things like you'ns when they mean y'all, and they call rubber bands "gum bands," and stuff like that. And when they go out of the house, they say they are going ott the hoss.

When I lived in the Twin Cities, it was strange to me that they called Cokes "pops." And if a Minnesotan wants to go with you somewhere, he will say, "Can I go with?" Uh, excuse me, but isn't "go with" a transitive verb clause? Where's the object? :)

And L.A. is the only place I've ever been where I've heard the term "swap meet." They're "flea markets" just about everywhere else.

I just hate it when people do that with "transitive verb clauses and leave out the object. You can never distinguish what they mean when they do that.

If you're in LA and someone starts talking about a "swap meet" they're probably not talking about flea markets Rob.

[Rob]

I just hate it when people do that with "transitive verb clauses and leave out the object. You can never distinguish what they mean when they do that. Heh heh. Well it does sound funny when you're not used to it.

If you're in LA and someone starts talking about a "swap meet" they're probably not talking about flea markets Rob.Well I lived there for sixteen years, and I was under that distinct impression! :) Gee, now I wonder what they really meant all those years.

[billyjoe]

Darn it Rob,
You tricked me. You can have an annualized compound gain to infinity since you are compounding the $$ and growing the amount using the new money. You can't compound a loss past 100% since the money is all gone there's nothing left to use to lose more than everything. Then again, you could compound a short loss and with your final trade end up owing more than you have, right?

billyjoe

[Rob]

Yeah, BillyJoe. That's what I'm talking about. If you go long on GOOG at $400 * 100 shares, the most you can lose is $40k. But what if you short it and it goes to $1,000 before you cover? In that case it's going to cost you $100,000 to cover. Then, using the short calculation formula:

(40k - 100k) / 40k = -60k / 40k = -150% !

[IIC]

I just hate it when people do that with "transitive verb clauses and leave out the object. You can never distinguish what they mean when they do that.

If you're in LA and someone starts talking about a "swap meet" they're probably not talking about flea markets Rob.

Yes they are...They are the same thing...Although...We have it right...Originally, they were markets for people to swap this for that...But later they became markets for sellers of used junk and evolved into markets for sellers to hawk new junk...But the thing is...They were never markets for vendors to sell fleas...So we are right in CA...The rest of the country is wrong

[Rob]

Doug,

Even in northern CA they call 'em flea markets. In my experience, "swap meet" is strictly a So. Cal. thing.

[billyjoe]

Rob,
Thanks, you don't know how close I was to getting mad and leaving the forum forever. Now I'll have to hang around for a few more years.

billyjoe

[IIC]

Doug,

Even in northern CA they call 'em flea markets. In my experience, "swap meet" is strictly a So. Cal. thing.

Northern CA is a bit different...They got all the water and we got Me

[Rob]

Everyone wants you to hang around, BillyJoe!

Lyehopper, I think you need to send BillyJoe a jug of that private reserve Goji Juice.

[Rob]

Northern CA is a bit different...They got all the water and we got MeNow let's see .... who got the better deal? LOL

[IIC]

Now let's see .... who got the better deal? LOL

Hey...their water is all polluted anyway...There is no way I'd drink the water out of my tap...Although I think mine comes from the Colorado River anyway...You ever seen the Colorado River??? Pass me another Rocky Mountain Brewski Ray

[billyjoe]

Lye,
If out of the kindness of your heart you send me a jug of Goji , please send it with the "bone strengthener" additive.

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Here are my closed and open "featured" trades....

http://img427.imageshack.us/img427/1820/roundupclosed54061vj.png (http://imageshack.us/)

http://img427.imageshack.us/img427/518/roundupopen54060dj.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

Is that better Doug-E-Fresh?.... I think it is.... And thanks for caring enough to question the math dude! You are HUGE!

THANKS! Rockin"Rob for the hard work and this program!!!! You are HUUUGE!!!!

[IIC]

Is that better Doug-E-Fresh?.... I think it is.... And thanks for caring enough to question the math dude! You are HUGE!

THANKS! Rockin"Rob for the hard work and this program!!!! You are HUUUGE!!!!

Oh...I dunno know...Rockin' Rob was just getting me to start thinkin' Southern Math...Maybe he should change it back

[Rob]

Here are my closed and open "featured" trades....

http://img427.imageshack.us/img427/1820/roundupclosed54061vj.png (http://imageshack.us/)



http://img427.imageshack.us/img427/518/roundupopen54060dj.png (http://imageshack.us/)
Dang it! When I set the page for the closed trades to have a maximum loss of 100% on a long position, I obviously forgot to do the same on the page for the open positions! I'll have to repair it and send you another one. It's always somethin'.

[skiracer]

Dang it! When I set the page for the closed trades to have a maximum loss of 100% on a long position, I obviously forgot to do the same on the page for the open positions! I'll have to repair it and send you another one. It's always somethin'.

When you deal in annualized returns aren't you in a sense counting two things before the fact. The first is that you are assuming that you are going to continue to do as well as you have up to this point, which is purely conjecture and not based on anything factual and second you might be counting your money before you leave the table. I see people talking about it all the time in effect to make their average gains or losses to date, which is the only reality, look better by projecting them out on the same curve to the end of the year. None of us know what the end of the year results are going to be today or three months from now or at the end of the year until we get there an to annualize these returns out that far at this point is fun an a great goal to shoot for but unrealistic in the assumption that it will end up that way. Any sharp bookmaker would be happy to give anyone a price on them realizing those gains over the remainder of the year.

You've had a great period to date but the present open positions at this point indicate what I am talking about. Not to say that they couldn't go off, which I'm sure you're expecting them to do, but to maintain a 54.56% annualized gain is quite a feat to maintain over the remainder of the year.

It's strange that you never see an average annualized loss percentage when an individual is down X percentage points about 5 months into the year. No one ever says that I expect to lose this much if I continue to pick the shit that I have been trading the remainder of the year.

These annualized gain projections are a pet peeve, did I just say that, of mine an I everytime I find myself counting my gains or money before I leave the table the worm seems to find a way to turn on me. I guess that's my penance for great health, wealth, and looks.

I want everyone here to do well an end up in the black at the end of the year but I would venture to say that no one here on this board will end up this year with a gain of 50% or more overall for the entire year. And by that I mean 50% more than what they started the year with in their trading accounts in simple unadulterated mathematical terms.

[Lyehopper]

......to annualize these returns out that far at this point is fun an a great goal to shoot for.....
I agree....lol

It's strange that you never see an average annualized loss percentage when an individual is down X percentage points about 5 months into the year. No one ever says that I expect to lose this much if I continue to pick the shit that I have been trading the remainder of the year.
You shall see just that in my thread.... My "featured picks" (just like $$MM$$'s) are HUUUUGLY transparent.

These annualized gain projections are a pet peeve
Is that like a pet rock?....jejeje.... Hey Ski! Here's why I like annualized returns.... It's a snapshot into how quickly the qain was realized. look at my pick FUEL for example. I'm only down a little over -3%.... but the trade is young.... thus my annualized loss is HUUUUGE! over -240%!!!!.... It's a two edged sword dude.... Simply put, I think it's fun to look at the annualized return, I like fun things and that's why I included it in my stats.

[IIC]

I want everyone here to do well an end up in the black at the end of the year but I would venture to say that no one here on this board will end up this year with a gain of 50% or more overall for the entire year. And by that I mean 50% more than what they started the year with in their trading accounts in simple unadulterated mathematical terms.

Why would you think that?...After the first month of the year it looked like it was going to be pretty easy...But now I'm not up as much as I was at the end of January so I might not make it myself this year...But I know people who are already up over 50% YTD.

Personally, I am still confident that I will earn over 50% if I keep the errors to a minimum...Of course that's always a big "If"

Back in 2003 I was up 56% near the end of September...Then all hell broke loose as you might recall...I made a conscious decision that I would hold everything unless I lost 1/2 of my profits...Not a very smart decision...But I stuck to my plan and by the end of Sept. I was in cash and was up only 27% YTD...But I came back and had a very good 3 months...Ended the year +68%...So it's possible...

Let's take Mickey for example...As I recall he actually owns BWNG...Now I don't know what he actually paid for it and I don't know what % of his portfolio is in it...but if he backed up the truck he should be up way over 50% YTD.

Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

Why would you think that?...After the first month of the year it looked like it was going to be pretty easy...But now I'm not up as much as I was at the end of January so I might not make it myself this year...But I know people who are already up over 50% YTD.

Personally, I am still confident that I will earn over 50% if I keep the errors to a minimum...Of course that's always a big "If"

Back in 2003 I was up 56% near the end of September...Then all hell broke loose as you might recall...I made a conscious decision that I would hold everything unless I lost 1/2 of my profits...Not a very smart decision...But I stuck to my plan and by the end of Sept. I was in cash and was up only 27% YTD...But I came back and had a very good 3 months...Ended the year +68%...So it's possible...

Let's take Mickey for example...As I recall he actually owns BWNG...Now I don't know what he actually paid for it and I don't know what % of his portfolio is in it...but if he backed up the truck he should be up way over 50% YTD.

Doug(IIC)

I'm not saying it's impossible Lye but for anyone trading on a daily or weekly basis where they are making at least two trades a week I think that a 50 % increase of your trading capital from start of year to end of year is very hard to do an to sustain that % over the course of the year is going to be very hard to do. Some people who will only take about 5-10 positions over the course of the year will have a much better chance of doing it but in my opinion it's very hard to do. If you were to limit all your losses to a miminum of 3-7% would your losing positions outnumber your gainers. It comes down to having a large % of winning positions vs the losing positions even when cutting the losses very short. At cutting the losses off at an average of 6-7%, which is my average and letting the winners run out as best as you can, it becomes almost impossible to post that kind of % gain over the year. Especially if, like me, your making 150 to 175 trades per year.

[IIC]

I'm not saying it's impossible Lye but for anyone trading on a daily or weekly basis where they are making at least two trades a week I think that a 50 % increase of your trading capital from start of year to end of year is very hard to do an to sustain that % over the course of the year is going to be very hard to do. Some people who will only take about 5-10 positions over the course of the year will have a much better chance of doing it but in my opinion it's very hard to do. If you were to limit all your losses to a miminum of 3-7% would your losing positions outnumber your gainers. It comes down to having a large % of winning positions vs the losing positions even when cutting the losses very short. At cutting the losses off at an average of 6-7%, which is my average and letting the winners run out as best as you can, it becomes almost impossible to post that kind of % gain over the year. Especially if, like me, your making 150 to 175 trades per year.

Now how could you get me confused w/ Lye???

I didn't say it was easy to make over 50%...But w/ 1700+ members here I would think there would at least be a few.

[DSteckler]

How can an annualized loss on any stock be worse than 100%? The most you can lose (non-margined, excluding commissions) is 100% of your investment.

[IIC]

How can an annualized loss on any stock be worse than 100%? The most you can lose (non-margined, excluding commissions) is 100% of your investment.

It's Southern Math

[Rob]

How can an annualized loss on any stock be worse than 100%? The most you can lose (non-margined, excluding commissions) is 100% of your investment.That's my point, where a long position is concerned, and that's why I sent Lye a corrected spreadsheet. It is possible, however, to lose more than 100% on a short position, as I've already explained.

[Lyehopper]

It's Southern Math
Which is not to be confused with redneck math.... "Pie are not square. Pie are round. Cornbread are square." ....

[Rob]

Which is not to be confused with redneck math.... "Pie are not square. Pie are round. Cornbread are square." ....LOL ... When I lived in So. Cal., "swap meet" country, one of my favorite places to eat pizza was a place on Ventura Blvd. called "Barone's." I don't know whether it's still there or not, but they made their pizza pies in a big, square pan—well, rectangular anyway. Give me a Barone's sausage, pepperoni, and onion pizza, a bottle or two of good, stout ale, and I'm in hog heaven.

[Lyehopper]

LOL ... When I lived in So. Cal., "swap meet" country, one of my favorite places to eat pizza was a place on Ventura Blvd. called "Barone's." I don't know whether it's still there or not, but they made their pizza pies in a big, square pan—well, rectangular anyway. Give me a Barone's sausage, pepperoni, and onion pizza, a bottle or two of good, stout ale, and I'm in hog heaven.
I'm with you there! Nothin' like a really good dish pizza pie.... When ever Mrs Lye and me go to "the windy city" we always go to "the" Origional Pizzeria Uno downtown. There are these old ladies in the back making these greasy, perfect deep dish pizzas (I think they make em round). I intentially skip breakfast and wait till about 2:00 in the afternoon (I like to be so hungry that I'm a little dizzy) to go there and eat the pizza for lunch.... MAN!!!! it's GOOOOOD!

[Rob]

LOL!!!!.... Did I forget that?.... How about this week dude!?

See Skiracer and Ray Long!!!! you two ain't the only ones I've left hangin'.... Sometimes ol Lye needs a gentle reminder.jejejeThis week, Wednesday or Thursday works for me, although I have a suspicion Thursday may not be good for you. BTW, it doesn't really have to be Frankie Rowland's. :) My Friday and my Saturday this week are already dedicated to two graduation affairs.

[Lyehopper]

BTW, it doesn't really have to be Frankie Rowland's. .
How about Pizza?....LOL!!!! Let me check with Mrs Lye and see how her week looks.

[Lyehopper]

Watch.... PARL and FUEL.... Both up nicely today.jeje

ACTU is primmed to pop....

ECOL still strong too.... I still have a position in real life but I wish I had held it in this portfolio.... oh well....

[EMphase]

Hey
I just wanted to warn you about CVGI because it seems very risky in my opinion. If I had your position @ 19.00$ I would take the small profit now and wait to see whats going to happen. CVGI is currently inside a huge triangle, that seems to be a bearish symmetrical triangle unfortunately because we can count 5 descending waves before the triangle. Of course, there is still a little possibility that the triangle is a bullish one but it's not worth the risk in my opinion. If the price breaks 21.00 then it was bullish and buy but if it breaks 18.00 sell short that thing asap according to the chart below.

http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/CVGI.gif

[Lyehopper]

Hey
I just wanted to warn you about CVGI because it seems very risky in my opinion. If I had your position @ 19.00$ I would take the small profit now and wait to see whats going to happen. CVGI is currently inside a huge triangle, that seems to be a bearish symmetrical triangle unfortunately because we can count 5 descending waves before the triangle. Of course, there is still a little possibility that the triangle is a bullish one but it's not worth the risk in my opinion. If the price breaks 21.00 then it was bullish and buy but if it breaks 18.00 sell short that thing asap according to the chart below.
Thanks for the TA dude.... Have you looked at this company's fundamentals? I bought it because I like their growth and I think they are well managed and I beleive the stock is a good value.

What do you think of PARL's chart?.... Would you buy or sell?

[Rob]

Lye, I was just looking at
PARL's chart, since it's
currently at the head of
the class in the POTW.

Do you have a target, at
which you will unload?

[Lyehopper]

Lye, I was just looking at
PARL's chart, since it's
currently at the head of
the class in the POTW.

Do you have a target, at
which you will unload?
If it goes the way I want.... I see $50+

[EMphase]

Thanks for the TA dude.... Have you looked at this company's fundamentals? I bought it because I like their growth and I think they are well managed and I beleive the stock is a good value.

What do you think of PARL's chart?.... Would you buy or sell?

Lye, checking again I'm not sure if it's that triangle bearish anymore because there is an alternate count that could make it bullish but there is one thing that holds: waiting 21.00$ will confirm it's bullish. Until then I will just wait and see. The lack of historical data on that stock makes it hard to learn more about that triangle.

[Lyehopper]

Lye, checking again I'm not sure if it's that triangle bearish anymore because there is an alternate count that could make it bullish but there is one thing that holds: waiting 21.00$ will confirm it's bullish. Until then I will just wait and see. The lack of historical data on that stock makes it hard to learn more about that triangle.
You didn't answer part "B".... What do you think of PARL's chart? and.... Would you buy or sell it?

[Lyehopper]

I have decided not to post the annualized returns right now.... Maybe later.

http://img359.imageshack.us/img359/1237/roundup5806closed9yy.png (http://imageshack.us)


http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/9462/roundup5806open3mc.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Websman]

Nice job on PARL Dude! Too bad I missed it.

[IIC]

I have decided not to post the annualized returns right now.... Maybe later.



http://img359.imageshack.us/img359/1237/roundup5806closed9yy.png (http://imageshack.us/)



http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/9462/roundup5806open3mc.png (http://imageshack.us/)





You could post them at the end of the year. Although now I'm going to give Rob another project.

Now these are purely fictional numbers used for illustration purposes only.

At the beginning of the year Mr. Investor starts with $10,000 in his account.

he buys this and sells that over the course of the year. However, in June he adds $5,000 to his account and in October he adds another $4,000....He buys and sells more stocks with that money.

On December 31st he sells everything and his account balance sits at $25,000.

Now...what was his annualized percentage gain that year?

Thanks, Doug(IIC)

[billyjoe]

Doug,
Here's my thinking on this problem. Had all the money been invested for 12 months the annualized return would be simply 25,000/19,000 = 31.57%.
Since only 10,000 was invested for the entire year and 5,000 for 7 months (June 1st) 4,000 for 3 months (Oct.1st), you actually are invested for 22 months resulting in 12/22 X 31.57 = 17.22%. It's probably not correct but an attempt.

billyjoe

[Rob]

I don't know. What am I? A freaking accountant or something?

[Rob]

I have decided not to post the annualized returns right now.... Maybe later.Lye, how come? Is it not working right?

I meant to ask you anyway because when I got done with it, I saved it and then sent it to you--at least I'm pretty sure I did. But later, when I closed it, I got the prompt asking me if I wanted to save it before closing it, and that only happens when you've made changes since the last save. So I thought there was a chance that last one I sent you had some inconsistencies in it.

[IIC]

Doug,
Here's my thinking on this problem. Had all the money been invested for 12 months the annualized return would be simply 25,000/19,000 = 31.57%.
Since only 10,000 was invested for the entire year and 5,000 for 7 months (June 1st) 4,000 for 3 months (Oct.1st), you actually are invested for 22 months resulting in 12/22 X 31.57 = 17.22%. It's probably not correct but an attempt.

billyjoe

That's not bad to estimate...But there is a formula...I used to know how to do it...If I could find the Instruction Book for my financial calculator I could do it.

[IIC]

I don't know. What am I? A freaking accountant or something?

Lye said you were...IIC

[Lyehopper]

Lye, how come? Is it not working right?

I meant to ask you anyway because when I got done with it, I saved it and then sent it to you--at least I'm pretty sure I did. But later, when I closed it, I got the prompt asking me if I wanted to save it before closing it, and that only happens when you've made changes since the last save. So I thought there was a chance that last one I sent you had some inconsistencies in it.
No, I got it Rob.... Thanks!.... I was just looking at the annualized returns and I think that even though it's impossible to lose more than 100% on a long trade the annualized return should show long losses in excess of 100% to make it average out more realistically. Does that make any sense?lol

[Lyehopper]

Lye said you were...IIC
I did not.... I said Rob was a genius.... not an accountant!

[Rob]

I did not.... I said Rob was a genius.... not an accountant!And I'll even deny that one too.

p.s. Lye, check your email.

[Lyehopper]

IRIS up 24%.... I once owned this stock.... sigh!

[Rob]

IMCL's having a nice day. :) New 52-wk. high. (See my msgs. in the Quasi-Ernie thread from this a.m.)

[Lyehopper]

A very successful lawyer parked his brand new Lexus in front of the office, ready to show it off to his colleagues. As he started to get out, an elderly farmer driving a pickup truck came along, too close to the curb, and completely tore off the driver's door of the Lexus.

The counselor immediately grabbed his cell phone, dialed 911, and it wasn't more than a couple of minutes before a policeman pulled up.

Before the cop had a chance to ask any questions, the lawyer started screaming hysterically.... His new Lexus, which he had just picked up the day before, was now completely ruined by "that damned redneck in a pickup truck".... and would never be the same, no matter how the body shop tried to make it new again.

After the lawyer finally wound down from his rant, the cop shook his head in disgust and disbelief.

"I can't believe how materialistic you lawyers are," he said. "You are so focused on your possessions that you neglect the most important things in life."

"How can you say such a thing!?" asked the lawyer.

The cop replied, "My God, don't you even realize that your left arm is missing? It got ripped off when the truck hit you!"

"My God!" screamed the lawyer...... "WHERE IN THE HELL IS MY ROLEX!!!!"

[stenzrob]

This sounds somehow familiar.

regards ... stenz

[Rob]

LOL! Lye, here's one of my favorite lawyer jokes:

---------------

A doctor and a lawyer got into a car accident, on a small country road. The lawyer had figured that nobody else would be on the road, and had raced through a stop sign. The doctor, on a cross street, had no time to react and couldn't have missed the lawyer if he had tried. Fortunately, neither driver was hurt.

The lawyer, seeing that the doctor was a little shaken up, helped him from his battered car and offered him a drink from a hip flask. The doctor accepted, took a deep drink, and handed the flask back to the lawyer. The lawyer held the flask for a minute or two, and gave it to the doctor again. The doctor took another swig. He again returned the flask to the lawyer, who closed it and put it away.

"Aren't you going to have a drink yourself?" asked the doctor.

"Not now," answered the lawyer. "I'll have something after the police leave."

[billyjoe]

Lye,
Although it was a mild winter , it got so cold one day I saw a lawyer with his hands in his own pockets.

billyjoe

[stenzrob]

from http://www.lawlaughs.com/

The local United Way office realized that it had never received a donation from one of the town's richest citizens, a very successful lawyer. A local volunteer was sent to solicit his donation. The volunteer approached the lawyer, commenting, "our research shows that even though your annual income is over a million dollars, you have never helped support our organization. Wouldn't it make you feel good to give back to your community through The United Way?"

The lawyer paused for a moment, then sternly stated, "Did your research show that my mother is dying after a long, painful illness and has huge medical bills far beyond her ability to pay?"

Surprised, the United Way volunteer mumbled, "Uh, no."

"Well then, did your research show that my brother is a disabled veteran? That he is blind? That he is confined to a wheelchair and is unable to support his wife and six children?"

The United Way representative tried to express sympathy, but the lawyer cut him off.

"Did your research tell you that my sister's husband died in a dreadful traffic accident?" The lawyer's voice was loud and indignant. "Did it tell you that her husband's death left her penniless, with a mortgage and three small children who she can't afford to care for?"

The United Way representative felt embarrassed to have assumed that the man was selfish, and stammered apologetically, "I had no idea."

The lawyer sternly concluded, "And they are my family. My flesh and blood. If I don't give any money to any of them, why in the world should I give any to you?"

[Lyehopper]

Who else here is feeling this way besides me?....LOL!

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/9027/bears5ji.png (http://imageshack.us)

[IIC]

Who else here is feeling this way besides me?....LOL!



http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/9027/bears5ji.png (http://imageshack.us/)
Nice one Lye...LOL...But Naz STRONG Support held...Currently 2313...There is some Moderate Resistance at 2330...Overall, I'm neutral on the NAZ here...So I won't jump ship just yet...My Crystal ball says we open down...but make a moderate move later on Thursday...IIC

[dmk112]

The NAS is still playing 'catch-up' to the DOW...and I think that's a good thing.

[Rob]

Who else here is feeling this way besides me?....LOL!



http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/9027/bears5ji.png (http://imageshack.us/)
I know what you mean, Lye. But after thinking about it some, I guess what I'm really feeling is more like ...
http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/6664/2595238945d07453a7eq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

I know what you mean, Lye. But after thinking about it some, I guess what I'm really feeling is more like ...


http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/6664/2595238945d07453a7eq.jpg (http://imageshack.us/)


You feel like old oxidizing galvanized barn siding?

WOW dude! you do need a steak dinner!...jejeje

[Rob]

You feel like old oxidizing galvanized barn siding?Yeah, man. Hey, when I looked at that picture, I thought it could be that back warehouse at the old Havener building you used to use. lol

WOW dude! you do need a steak dinner!...jejejeHow 'bout Sunday at 5:30, dude? I'm buyin' the first round of adult beverages. That ought to help knock some of that rust off.

[Lyehopper]

I just shorted ENER @ $54.84.... I think it's gonna slide fellas.

[Lyehopper]

Yeah, man. Hey, when I looked at that picture, I thought it could be that back warehouse at the old Havener building you used to use. lol

How 'bout Sunday at 5:30, dude? I'm buyin' the first round of adult beverages. That ought to help knock some of that rust off.
Sounds good.... I'll talk to Mrs. Lye and PM you.... or call you to confirm. How do you like Montano's dude?.... We ate there last night and I got this Brazillian dish with a big fat (bone in) porkchop and seasoned collard greens with blackbeans and rice.... DUDE!!!! was it ever good!

Look at my two short plays dude.... ESLR and ENER....jejeje

[Lyehopper]

Just tried to short more ESLR and I can't get any freakin' shares! CRAP!.... I'll keep tryin'!

[Lyehopper]

I have lightened up on all of my long featured trades.... but FUEL and ACTU.

PARL.... I have only a very small position left.
JAH.... I had a huge position.... Trimmed to only 25% of the origional position now.
CVGI.... I have cut the position in half.

FUEL.... I have only a small posiotion here but Im looking to add.
ACTU.... I added shares yesterday, I'm not ready to give up on ACTU yet.

Looking seriously at more short plays... I'll keep all the trades open here till I exit completely.

[Lyehopper]

Building a tripple bottom ($4.06).... I'm adding here ($4.15)

Look at the nice cup/handle forming on the two year chart.... SWEET!

[spikefader]

Gettin' close to cutting ACTU loose. It's been a disappointment thus far. If 4.00 doesn't hold it's Uh Oh Mildred...

[Lyehopper]

Gettin' close to cutting ACTU loose. It's been a disappointment thus far. If 4.00 doesn't hold it's Uh Oh Mildred...
If this thing does sell off?.... Keep it on your radar for a bottom dude.... It'll be HUUUUGE! someday imo.

[spikefader]

If this thing does sell off?.... Keep it on your radar for a bottom dude.... It'll be HUUUUGE! someday imo.Yeah, like MOVI! hehe remember that one (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=45097&postcount=30)! It's up 70% from that post :D Today's chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/MOVIMay11.html). No, I don't own it any more! Don't ask me why I took it off my list.....

http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/8007/crying7jd.jpg

I do have it in my Marketocracy Fund though...maybe I can still catch Karel before the year is out.

[Lyehopper]

Yeah, like MOVI! hehe remember that one (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=45097&postcount=30)! It's up 70% from that post :D Today's chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/MOVIMay11.html). No, I don't own it any more! Don't ask me why I took it off my list.....

http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/8007/crying7jd.jpg

I do have it in my Marketocracy Fund though...maybe I can still catch Karel before the year is out.
LOL!!!! Yep that was a great call dude.... that's the way I feel for not holding my SIRF short.... AND for not selling PARL on Monday! Waaaaaaaaa!.... BUT my ENER short this morning makes up for some of that.... NOW If it'll JUST break on down from here.

Hey Spike! Hit me with an ENER chart and lemme see if I'm readin' this thing right.

[spikefader]

Hey Spike! Hit me with an ENER chart and lemme see if I'm readin' this thing right.
Hmm dude....ENER....she's lookin' bullish to me. Here's today's chart...there is the SHS over 2 days, but the daily looks support areas.
http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/3636/enermay110mf.gif

[Lyehopper]

Hmm dude....ENER....she's lookin' bullish to me. Here's today's chart...there is the SHS over 2 days, but the daily looks support areas.
http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/3636/enermay110mf.gif
Yeah I see what you mean.... but this stock is so freakin' overvalued that it's STUPID!.... We're lookin' at a $50 stock that's worth about $5.... It needs to crash!

I guess I could have shorted about 90% of the stocks out there and made money today so I won't toot my horn too loudly but I really want to see this particular stock sell off. I have shorted it numerous times. I've made money and I've lost money on it too.... I just want to be there with a position when that big ol MFLX type crash happens!LOL!

[spikefader]

Yeah I see what you mean.... but this stock is so freakin' overvalued that it's STUPID!.... We're lookin' at a $50 stock that's worth about $5.... It needs to crash!

I guess I could have shorted about 90% of the stocks out there and made money today so I won't toot my horn too loudly but I really want to see this particular stock sell off. I have shorted it numerous times. I've made money and I've lost money on it too.... I just want to be there with a position when that big ol MFLX type crash happens!LOL!LOL Yep, it may need it! lol But bubbles occur all the time, where worthless stuff is overinflated, based simply on the insanity of market participants. Price action never ceases to amaze me. Price discovery is an crazy thing. What you value as X, someone else may value at 10X. And frankly, whatever ENER is worth the chart is clearly bullish. Check this monthly chart (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/ENERMay11monthly.html) out. We are in a 3 up!

But keep stalking it, it will one day reveal its weakness; just like SIRF and MFLX etc. I wanna see you nail it!

[noshadyldy]

This lawyer died and went to hell. (that could be the end of it right there but actually the story continues.) Being accustomed to the finer things in life, he wanted to make a few improvements. He immediately raised issue with several of the inhumane conditions and in short order had air conditioning installed. He then reassessed and also had a cool inground pool built, a refrigerated beverage stand, and an amusement area erected. Things were pretty good and the inmates were happy for a change. The head guy down there just looked the other way as he thought this would be good for "recruitment." Sure enough, word of this reached the heavens. God issued a statement and command to reverse conditions immediately. The devil said "fagit it, enrollment is up!" God said, "Stop this right now or I'll sue!!!" The devil chuckled and said, Oh yea... just where are YOU going to get a lawyer?"

[Lyehopper]

I just bought BMD (long) for $8.16....

This is a non-typical Lyehopper play.... I'll call this a speculative pick and a "round-about" Oil-Sands play.

I've traded BMD a few times before and I think it's a good time to buy a few shares.

[Lyehopper]

I have lightened up on all of my long featured trades.... but FUEL and ACTU.

PARL.... I have only a very small position left.
JAH.... I had a huge position.... Trimmed to only 25% of the origional position now.
CVGI.... I have cut the position in half.

FUEL.... I have only a small posiotion here but Im looking to add.
ACTU.... I added shares yesterday, I'm not ready to give up on ACTU yet.

Looking seriously at more short plays... I'll keep all the trades open here till I exit completely.
I added FUEL today.... It hit my target and reversed within a nickle. My goal is sell for 15-20% gain.... (my origional shares [here] were purchased @ $3.60)

http://img432.imageshack.us/img432/5207/fuel26jg.png (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

FUEL has Uh Oh Mildred (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/FUELMay12.html) qualities....but good luck Mr. Lye.

[Lyehopper]

Here are my open and closed "Featured" positions as of Friday....

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/7324/roundup51406open0va.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Websman]

Nice!!! The VTP is doing well....

[billyjoe]

Lye,
Can I start panic-ing about ACTU yet ?

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Can I start panic-ing about ACTU yet ?

billyjoe
Ask Spike....LOL!

Seriously, If the market tanks nothing is safe dude. Please don't wait for me to trade a stock here to make a decision. Example: I still hold PARL on this thread and in real life I own only a very very small position still.

Let me direct you to this post (#454) I made Friday.... http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=1289&page=46&pp=10

For the record.... I'm kinda bearish.... I'm looking for more good short plays right now....

[Rob]

Let me tell y'all how huge Lyehopper is:


Last night Mrs. Rob and I went to Outback Steakhouse with Lyehopper & Mrs. Lyehopper. And even though I had said here repeatedly that I was buying the first round of drinks, and even though I physically took the cash out of my wallet and tried to hand it to him, he would not take it! Man, that's huge of a fella to do that, don'cha think?


I was amused when Lyehopper was asking the waitress about how much money the restaurant takes in in gross sales on an average day. And later he handed her a business card and said to call if she was looking for another job, 'cause he's looking for a new sales girl. LOL! That's Lye, never afraid to mix business with pleasure!

Edit: Oh yeah, I had a 14 oz. New York strip that was pretty awesome! I think Lyehopper had the prime rib, (was it 20 oz.?) and he gave the waitress very explicit instructions on how it was to be cooked. lol

[mimo_100]

Let me tell y'all how huge Lyehopper is:


Last night Mrs. Rob and I went to Outback Steakhouse with Lyehopper & Mrs. Lyehopper. And even though I had said here repeatedly that I was buying the first round of drinks, and even though I physically took the cash out of my wallet and tried to hand it to him, he would not take it! Man, that's huge of a fella to do that, don'cha think?


I was amused when Lyehopper was asking the waitress about how much money the restaurant takes in in gross sales on an average day. And later he handed her a business card and said to call if she was looking for another job, 'cause he's looking for a new sales girl. LOL! That's Lye, never afraid to mix business with pleasure!

Edit: Oh yeah, I had a 14 oz. New York strip that was pretty awesome! I think Lyehopper had the prime rib, (was it 20 oz.?) and he gave the waitress very explicit instructions on how it was to be cooked. lol


I go to the Outback a few times a year -- I like to order the 14 oz. ribeye -- and chopped salad with blue cheese vinegarette -- it is great -- especially if you start off with a nice Austrailian shiraz.

[Lyehopper]

I was amused when Lyehopper was asking the waitress about how much money the restaurant takes in in gross sales on an average day. And later he handed her a business card and said to call if she was looking for another job, 'cause he's looking for a new sales girl.
Remember that she brought up the subject of sales and how it was their biggest sales day of the year (she was excited to be there and not all frustrated because of the crowd).... When I asked her a question about their sales she was focused on what I was asking and she came back with an answer from her manager. She said their goal was $28k in sales for yesterday. What other waitress would even take my question seriously?.... I liked that about this gal.. Plus my steak came back perfect. She was respectful (saying yes sir and no sir) and she was cute yet she wasn't "skanky looking".... she even had only one set of holes in her ears. She seemed modest and serious and I think she was a quick thinker with attention to detail. She was more interested in doing a good job than looking cute for the male waiters and bus-boys.... Notice that I didn't give her the card till I paid her for the meal. I wanted to observe her "hustle" and see how well she did.... I gave her a 25% tip.... She was WAY above average, I'd say she'll make a dandy (focused) inside salesperson.... LOL!

[Lyehopper]

My ENER short covered @ 46.69....

[Lyehopper]

I shorted BWNG this morning above $12.51.... I'll feature the pick @ $12.51

[Lyehopper]

FUEL has Uh Oh Mildred (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/FUELMay12.html) qualities....but good luck Mr. Lye.
90% of the stocks on my screen have "uh oh Mildred" qualities right now dude! The bear is back....

[spikefader]

My ENER short covered @ 46.69....Well done dude. You're HUUUUGE :D No way I saw that comin'!

90% of the stocks on my screen have "uh oh Mildred" qualitieslol you got that right.

[Lyehopper]

I just bought a boat load of GEHL....jejeje..... http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

pick #14.... GEHL (long) @ $28.47

http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/8563/gehl35dw.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

I'm rebuilding my PARL position.... added shares under $26.30 today....

[Lyehopper]

90% of the stocks on my screen have "uh oh Mildred" qualities right now dude! The bear is back....
I've been avoiding posting about FUEL today.... Go ahead and say it Spike.... "TOLD YA SO".....LOL!

I'm still holding it. Stay tuned to see how I get out of this!

[rickflyboy]

Lye,
Thanks for this pick. On its last climb I made a easy $8 per share. I could have made even more If had bot @ $28 with you. I got in @ $31+ and out @ $40.

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Thanks for this pick. On its last climb I made a easy $8 per share. I could have made even more If had bot @ $28 with you. I got in @ $31+ and out @ $40.
Be carefull Rick.... This market is killer right now and fear is rising.

Here's the funny thing.... I normally gage the market to what I see happening in my own business'. We are on target for another sales record this sales month and my backlog is still growing.

Now, If this "shockwave" can lower and stabilize commodity prices and interest rates start to slide again?.... this market is off and running again by Q3-Q1.... So while I'm looking to short a few junk stocks that are way out in left field.... I'm also looking for (value/growth) bargans.... GEHL is a freakin' bargan right here and I've got (buy) limit orders set all the way down to $28.28...

[New-born baby]

Be carefull Rick.... This market is killer right now and fear is rising.

Here's the funny thing.... I normally gage the market to what I see happening in my own business'. We are on target for another sales record this sales month and my backlog is still growing.

Now, If this "shockwave" can lower and stabilize commodity prices and interest rates start to slide again?.... this market is off and running again by Q3-Q1.... So while I'm looking to short a few junk stocks that are way out in left field.... I'm also looking for (value/growth) bargans.... GEHL is a freakin' bargan right here and I've got (buy) limit orders set all the way down to $28.28...

Lye,
$17 price target of GEHL. Really my friend.

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
$17 price target of GEHL. Really my friend.
Don't see it my friend....

[Websman]

Lye,
$17 price target of GEHL. Really my friend.

That couldn't be right... The VTP shows a $19 price target gor GEHL.

[Lyehopper]

That couldn't be right... The VTP shows a $19 price target gor GEHL.LOL!.... KMA webs!

[Websman]

LOL!.... KMA webs!

KMA??? I would only do that if we were locked in a cell together...jejeje

[Lyehopper]

KMA??? I would only do that if we were locked in a cell together...jejejeLOL!.... You are a strange dude Websman! Hey I found your favorite long lost video.... The true inside story of ADman and The Stock Boy....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-nKwycdJ_0&search=Follies%20CBS%20Columbia%20Business%20Schoo l%20Glenn%20Hubbard%20Ben%20Bernanke

[Websman]

LOL!.... You are a strange dude Websman!
You'd be strange too if you'd have spent as much time behind bars as I have.

[New-born baby]

That couldn't be right... The VTP shows a $19 price target gor GEHL.

Then, of course, I must defer to the imminent VTP :D

I don't mean to sound like a party pooper, but I myself am trying to exercise caution in this time.

[Websman]

Then, of course, I must defer to the imminent VTP :D

I don't mean to sound like a party pooper, but I myself am trying to exercise caution in this time.

I'm doing more than exercising caution, I'm in 100% cash.

[spikefader]

...Time to take it off and buy the dip. Triple toppy intraday today. Smart folk got out at the 40.65 double top.

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/9804/gehlapr5tag4zd.gif (http://imageshack.us)

And the dip is in progress :D 30% from where I posted jejeje Ya GOTTA love those profit-taking tags dudes! Just quickly charted GEHL up and crashing channel action in the last month (channel from the top), and double top back there, and the symm triangle breakdown, so bearish bias until it shows something impressive. Looks like it wants 21.00 support to me.
http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/9992/gehlmay170ce.gif

[New-born baby]

Look at this price action and mark it down, people. TOPPING ACTION LOOKS LIKE THIS:

See that gapping action higher? See how it gapped up after an extended run? And how that it gapped up to form a double top? TOPPING ACTION OFTEN LOOKS JUST LIKE THIS. Look and learn. And look and next time leave Dodge when it gaps up like this.
http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/7656/chart11gp.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Yeah NB. Plus that gap down on volume. Those events must be taken with a boatload of appreciation.

[Lyehopper]

Look at this price action and mark it down, people. TOPPING ACTION LOOKS LIKE THIS...... Look and learn. And look and next time leave Dodge when it gaps up like this.
What do you mean "next time" dude?lol....Did you not know that I sold the last of my GEHL shares on 4/21/06.... http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=1289&page=20&pp=10

My average profit on my GEHL trades this year were nearly 50%.... Remember when I was singing GEHL's praises and buying it in early Jan "06"?.... Here are some of those old posts....

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?p=36766&highlight=GEHL#post36766

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=679&page=191&pp=10&highlight=GEHL

NOTE: After I sold GEHL in late April I stated that my target price to buy GEHL again was $28.50.... I started building a new position today below that price.

[spikefader]

Fine trading on GEHL dude, excellent exit, even if it was 12 days after the profit tag hehe just kiddin.....nice dude, very nice.

[IIC]

I want my old Lye avatar back...IIC

[Lyehopper]

Fine trading on GEHL dude, excellent exit, even if it was 12 days after the profit tag hehe just kiddin.....nice dude, very nice.I started to sell GEHL shortly after you posted that Spike. I sold 80% of my shares above $39.50 (with limit orders) over a few days.... I closed the position on 4/21 and posted it here....

I will build my new GEHL position the same way.... Gradually.... I started buying below $28.50 yesterday and I will patiently build this new position over the next few weeks. I don't expect a huge rally right now but I do suspect the stock has bottomed or nearly bottomed ( I have limit buy orders in place down to about $28 now). I still like GEHL's business and they are manufacturing at max capacity and looking to further grow. I think the stock is worth $50.

[Lyehopper]

I want my old Lye avatar back...IICI want my 3% interest rates back....

[Rob]

I want my 3% interest rates back....Lyehopper, I know a dude who can get you money for 3% ... a day.

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/897/gangstersmall1vk.jpg (http://imageshack.us/)


Edit: p.s. Who's that on your avatar? Bernanke? Why are there some kind of large flying insects mating on the side of his head?