C long/short spotting - should we have a dedicated thread?

[spikefader]

I'm thinking about opening a thread dedicated to spotting stocks that are currently in the 'c' correction move following the EW 5th impulse patterns.

An example is in the ELN chart below, where you can see the pink 'c'. Since that 'c' area, price has impulsed nicely up to today's high of 16.47, a move of over 25%, and it is arguably only done 1 impulse up at this stage.

Y'all know I like 'c' longs; I'm forever referring to them. I think they are excellent areas of support when a stock is impulsing up and excellent areas of resistance when stocks are impulsing down. And the flip side is if those "c" areas break, then it's a great way to identify potential reversals to the original impulse direction.

If you're interested in seeing a thread dedicated strictly to specific 'c' long or 'c' short entries, calling them live when we see them, vote yes.

If you think c longs suck bilge water, vote no.

I think this would be a pretty cool site resource, and if enough people vote yes I'll try to keep a running list of active 'c' longs and shorts and post charts depicting any successful moves of those called out.

Here's that example chart.
http://img468.imageshack.us/img468/5268/elnjan58xq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I would only be interested in the count off daily or longer term charts.

[ParkTwain]

Does EW pertain to a stock having less than $100K daily dollar volume?

[Lyehopper]

See that little dog run?

[mimo_100]

Spike,

I was also thinking of starting thread listing the "winners" that many have discovered and written about on this board. Your example, ELAN, has been recommended for a long time. There are quite a few stocks that still have a lot of "juice" in them.

There are many others, we only have to ask people to post.

I don't mean to hijack your thread, but what do you think about this?

See that little dog run? (what does this mean?????) (laughing)

Tim

[Lyehopper]

Spike,

I was also thinking of starting thread listing the "winners" that many have discovered and written about on this board. Your example, ELAN, has been recommended for a long time. There are quite a few stocks that still have a lot of "juice" in them.

There are many others, we only have to ask people to post.

I don't mean to hijack your thread, but what do you think about this?

See that little dog run? (what does this mean?????) (laughing)

Tim
Read Karel's new "Sticky".... This could be the new $$MM$$ catch phrase....jejeje

[sekto]

i think its a great idea -=]

[Websman]

See that little dog run?

Run doggy run!!! TICK

[Websman]

I didn't vote, because I don't actually have an opinion on this one. It takes all I can do to keep up with everything here already. Of course it would be a very informative thread.

But, I would say do it only if you feel you have enough time and you enjoy it. If it gets to be a chore it'll be no fun.

[spikefader]

Well great! There's some interest out there. I see there's 15 votes for yes, making up 94% of the vote! :) I'll ignore that one lonely, miserable, in-need-of-an-uppercut 'no' vote. lol (just messin'; TA ain't for everyone, and that's cool too).

Rather than start another thread, I'll just keep it in this one. Karel, is it possible to trim/change the title to something apt. "C Spotting" is probably as good as anything....

Now here's the deal: This isn't gonna be a one-man show. I'm encouraging everyone to contribute with heads up. If you happen to see the pattern (12345ab and in a c) just post the ticker and I'll do the chart for it and track it for a while.

Don't call em too soon, and don't call em too late. Call em during the 'b' or 'c'. And this is only going to be successful if we all commit to looking for them. They are a distinct pattern. There's got to be 5 clear impulse waves and then the 3 correctives:

http://img365.imageshack.us/img365/2773/12345abc0pz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

If it doesn't look like that then ignore it. Let's be picky and patient. Don't try to fit a square peg into a round hole!

Does EW pertain to a stock having less than $100K daily dollar volume?I think it does. The higher the volume the better imo though. Thin issues can bite and slip.

I would only be interested in the count off daily or longer term charts.
Yep, I think that would be best too.

I was also thinking of starting thread listing the "winners" .... stocks that still have a lot of "juice" in them....I don't mean to hijack your thread, but what do you think about this?
I'm all for threads that are a resource and will be used. I suspect you'd end up with a loooong list there though. And everyone looks for different things so there'd be a mix and blend. But I'd probably read it and contribute. You'd have to limit the number of submissions though. Maybe best 2 from everyone on a monthly basis or sumfin. That way you don't end up with a list of 1000 that's just too much to be helpful.

[Runner]

Spike, was just looking over some charts from the Nasdaq 100. Here is a monthly on WYNN.
http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/7992/wynn3wv.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

http://img475.imageshack.us/img475/5446/brcm1qo.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/7234/tlab6ws.png (http://imageshack.us)
booming action on this little puppy

[Runner]

Still toying through the Nas 100. I don’t want to take up too much space on the thread. I realize these do not fit the criteria you’ve mentioned. I guess we shall see how they plan out in this year. If these charts posted pop the resistance I feel they will have some pretty good upward momentum.
http://img464.imageshack.us/img464/6802/ntap4dc.png (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Spike, was just looking over some charts from the Nasdaq 100. Here is a monthly on WYNN.
http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/7992/wynn3wv.png (http://imageshack.us)
Thanks Runner.

Here's the daily:

http://img319.imageshack.us/img319/1905/wynninc8wy.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

One might be tempted to chase this 3rd with a stop under 2?? But ideally, the first 'c' failed, and that makes me hesitant. Plus the fact that back in April there was a high vol gap down, and WYNN is currently at that resistance area. I think I'd pass on this one now, until perhaps the monthy confirms, then look for the next daily 'c' that pops up??

[Runner]

Spike is it a double or triple three? If this does happen look at the monthly chart where possible target is. Could it set up short with about $20. profit?

[spikefader]

Spike is it a double or triple three? If this does happen look at the monthly chart where possible target is. Could it set up short with about $20. profit?double, triple, quadruple?? lol I dunno. FYI: Don't ask for anything beyond 'c' or test/failure of 'c' from me. That's as far as my EW goes. Simple and it works for me :D

My channel bias is long for WYNN. As is the current simplistic count.

[spikefader]

PARL: close to b completion now??

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/5792/parljan168wm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

From MSL to MSH off last bottom I plot 1.618 fib target for PARL @ 36.22

[New-born baby]

Spike:
I like this idea, and it ought to be on a sticky right up at the top of the chart (IMHO). Another thread I thought about was "Triangles." That is, asking folks to post any and all triangles on the charts they find. I think that would be profitable.

[spikefader]

Spike:
I like this idea, and it ought to be on a sticky right up at the top of the chart (IMHO). Another thread I thought about was "Triangles." That is, asking folks to post any and all triangles on the charts they find. I think that would be profitable.Yep, a triangle thread would be awesome. I'd encourage anyone who's looking to contribute to the forums and not doing anything yet to start a thread dedicated to triangles.
Perhaps one of the new guys or gals?? How bout it people?

[spikefader]

MDR in the 'b'.

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/5237/mdrjan17inab7yu.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[kingofthehill]

spike what do you see on ELN

[Runner]

http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/7234/tlab6ws.png (http://imageshack.us)
TLAB trigger today

[spikefader]

spike what do you see on ELNIt's still impulsing up; just not too sure of the daily count. Seems like it's maybe in a small 5th after that 'c' long posted; or just in a 3rd of 5 (with smaller subwaves up to 3 of 5).

EDIT: And on an intraday basis today, looks like it's coming off a 'c' long right now at 16.51.

[spikefader]

Thnx Runner. TLAB daily a bit messy count-wise. But definately one to watch cuz it'll be in line with that long-term chart!

[DSteckler]

<< a triangle thread would be awesome. >>

One of Robb's favorite patterns is the symmetrical triangle. I'm sure he'd contribute however he's been posting the links to them on his thread.

[IIC]

<< a triangle thread would be awesome. >>

One of Robb's favorite patterns is the symmetrical triangle. I'm sure he'd contribute however he's been posting the links to them on his thread.

Yes...I've noticed that...Doug

[spikefader]

ALKS in the 'c'

http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/6209/alksjan170jl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[sekto]

hey spike thats a lot of Gaps, and Gaps intimidate me. Are u not worried about this because they were gaps on High Volume which makes them safe?
I have no intention to buy with that many gap ups but am interested in seeing ur opinion on the gap issue. Thanks!

[spikefader]

ENG: b completion?
http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/3672/engjan171uo.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

hey spike thats a lot of Gaps, and Gaps intimidate me. Are u not worried about this because they were gaps on High Volume which makes them safe?
I have no intention to buy with that many gap ups but am interested in seeing ur opinion on the gap issue. Thanks!Try to avoid attaching emotion to any type of pattern, including gaps. Instead, assign calm logic and respect for probable outcomes. I suspect that's it's just a bit of fear of the unknown that generates that feeling of intimidation. I encourage you really read up on gaps and invest some time.... really learn to appreciate their significance. They are excellent things to take advantage of once you overcome the intimidation and fear that they 'might' fill against you. Bottom line is your disciplined use of stops or diversification should eliminate fear of too much pain beyond your limit.

Get into the habit of looking for gaps for every stock you consider. Go back, years back, and see if you can find any in stocks you have traded. You may be surprized how many you find remain unfilled. Runaways can last for months (even years).

Look at HANS back in March 05, huge volume gap up from 22.25 that remains unfilled today, despite HANS trading up to over $100.00 or +450% from that gap. HANS has other runaways at 50.00, 57.00, 86.00, and 94.50. Now if one avoids trading HANS cuz it's got gaps is scratching a bullish monster off your list of potentials.

RMBS another example (sheesh look at that thing go this month!), has a gap from Nov 02 at 6.50 that remains unfilled. Price soared to 36.00 since, then back to 10.00, then now again back to 36.00 again, and that little old 6.50 gap is still there unfilled.

ALKS had a gap back in August 02 that took 4 months to fill after a move of +100% from the gap. ALKS again, back in Feb 2000 had a gap up that ran to +100% over 16 trading days and took 6 weeks to fill.

So it's clear that big % moves can follow runaways. Some people argue they happen half way through a move. I don't agree with that assumption. I think they have potential to happen early in a move. But bottom line is there is really no knowing when one will fill. Volume is a hint. Massive volume, like ALKS lately (or RMBS lately), is a key that the gap could remain unfilled for months and months.

But whenever they do fill, one thing IS clear, a runaway gap is a bullish thing. Use it as weight to attach to a chart, not as a fear factor to scare you away.

Just keep on finding those great r/r setups for a trade, consider the potential up and downside, always remember the gap is there, build your plan around it, set the downside limit, put your orders in, execute it, and get back to stalkin' the next one if you stop out, fearless but always disciplined and protecting yourself.

With ALKS, I'm actually half expecting that 3rd gap to fill/be tested during the 'c' down. If it gets down there, I'm expecting 21.57 gap support to be very very solid. I actually doubt it'll get that low, but if it does, that'll be a good buy point with a stop at 20.85 (the other side of the gap fill). That's only 3.3% risk at great support, to target another 5 waves up (maybe as much as 45% profit in that impulsive move). You may prefer to wait for an intraday pattern, like inverted SHS or double bottom to confirm an entry near that gap support, and set a sub 1% stop, which makes for an even better r/r.

I think $50.00 isn't out of the question for ALKS, and it could be huge dude! But let's not get ahead of ourselves....little steps, little steps.
Wait for the 'c' down, then the intraday confirming pattern, patience, stalk it, wait for right moment and pounce, fearless and disciplined.

I'll post a setup if I see one for it. I encourage others to watch it too, and post a heads up if I miss it.

[spikefader]

ALY coming off 'c' and into 1. Intraday 16.30 buy is sub 2% risk if you place your stop under the 'c'.

http://img65.imageshack.us/img65/8357/alyjan189rj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

I love this thread.... I bet I've marked up 20 charts since I started reading this. I'm starting to see the LIGHT!!!!

btw.... #1 LLH Spikefader (candidate) was born Sunday Morning. I checked him out closley this morning.... He's solid black.... birth weight = 82 pounds.... After he gets a belly full of milk he runs around like a maniac and jumps straight up in the air like he has springs in his feet.lol

I'll know if he's "the one" in about 8 months.

[mimo_100]

ALY coming off 'c' and into 1. Intraday 16.30 buy is sub 2% risk if you place your stop under the 'c'.

http://img65.imageshack.us/img65/8357/alyjan189rj.jpg (http://imageshack.us/)

How far under the "C" should the stop be placed??

[spikefader]

FCBP: 'c' is done.

http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/3571/fcbpjan186so.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

How far under the "C" should the stop be placed??I like 'em tight. If you don't like tight under 'c', then make it tight under the 'a'. Just make it a good r/r equation.

[spikefader]

MDR (see http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=37323&postcount=22)
is in the 'c' down now.... watching for intraday pattern around maybe 47.00...

[spikefader]

ALY:
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=37462&postcount=33
+10% in a day, and it's just gettin' started.
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=ALY&t=1d&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,%5EDJI&a=v&p=s

[spikefader]

MDR looks like the 'c' is in now. I'll look to buy the intraday pivot tomorrow I think...

[DSteckler]

ALY:
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=37462&postcount=33
+10% in a day, and it's just gettin' started.
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=ALY&t=1d&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,%5EDJI&a=v&p=s

Spike, you're ABC is incorrect, assuming you're referring to the daily chart. ABC is a corrective wave and the low of B has to be lower than the low of A. Your chart shows it higher.

[spikefader]

...the low of B has to be lower than the low of A......lol sheesh, no pleasing some people! ~roll eyes~ lol Dave! Ya gotta be kiddin' me right?! That's it ain't it....you're just messin' with my head cuzz yer a crazy old fart lol

Seriously dude; cut some slack. I thought I'd made it pretty clear.....I'm not following strict EW rules. Take those rules and throw 'em out yer window.

Like that great old fart's song by Frank Sinatra (the legend that he is)............"I did it myyyyyyyyyyyy wayy"!

[DSteckler]

<< I thought I'd made it pretty clear.....I'm not following strict EW rules. >>

Sorry, I didn't realize you were making it up as you went along. Why not call it a Z wave? And why call it Wave 1 - 5 since you're not following strict EW rules - why not call it Wave Green through Wave Purple?

<LOL!>

[spikefader]

Well aaaaaalrighty then.........nice thread crappin', thanks.

Sorry to say you've just plummetted down several notches on my respectometer, Mr. Steckler.

How bout you take yer chuckles and fun elsewhere. Prolly the best thing doncha think? Thanks fer comin', love yer work, please vote in the poll on your way out......

[Runner]

Gentlemen will be gentle men, come on dudes this is not necessary. I thought for a minute I was on the YHOO forum. Dave this is Spikes Thread and let him do his own thing. I’ve learned a great deal from Spike in the short time I’ve known him. Dave, I hope to say the same for you. Most of us are here to learn and share ideas.

Spike has made it clear that he does not follow EW as per Prechter. Hey who cares about correct labeling? In fact most Wavers can’t agree on what time it is. I would ask if Dave can post a chart on Runners thread that is the correct wave count on the S&P-500. I’d really like to see the chart. Cycle may have started after last huge tanking around 2002 and so that might have us 4 years in the cycle?

I once had a very wise man once tell me sumfin that has stuck with me. He said, “ learn how to step on a man’s shoes with out messing up his shoeshine”. If ya think about it for just a second it makes sense.

[Shadow]

I once had a very wise man once tell me sumfin that has stuck with me. He said, “ learn how to step on a man’s shoes with out messing up his shoeshine”. If ya think about it for just a second it makes sense.

ROFL....sorry guys....maybe you didn't mean for me to
laugh....but thanks anyway.... I needed one today. :)

I totally agree with Runner.

But I have heard another wise man say "How big an 'ole
boy are you?"

ROFL......... carry on gentlemen.

Shadow

[Karel]

Gentlemen will be gentle men, come on dudes this is not necessary. I thought for a minute I was on the YHOO forum. Dave this is Spikes Thread and let him do his own thing. ...
Well, yes, but I think Dave supposed he was just being helpful. And when Spike says he doesn't follow EW theory exactly, what rules is he following? Or no rules? Is it just the picture on the first page of this thread ( 1 longer raise - 2 shorter drop - 3 longer raise - 4 shorter drop - 5 longer raise - a longer drop - b shorter raise - c longer drop )? Or is it a bit more specific, like (also according to the figure): a doesn't drop below 4, c does?

And the EW theory took a lot of research, whatever its value. If this isn't EW, why is it supposed to work? Is it a "good enough" approximation? Is it to establish the validity of Spike's approach? Or is it just to cheer at each success scored this way? All may be valid reasons for this thread, and there may be others, but it would be nice to establish what is what, so the experts can avoid messing up each other's shoeshine.

And I think Dave's comment ("that is not a b") still is interesting, not along the lines of "I know my theory better than you", but to see what this means for the bottom line, i.e. $$$.

Regards,

Karel

[skiracer]

Well, yes, but I think Dave supposed he was just being helpful. And when Spike says he doesn't follow EW theory exactly, what rules is he following? Or no rules? Is it just the picture on the first page of this thread ( 1 longer raise - 2 shorter drop - 3 longer raise - 4 shorter drop - 5 longer raise - a longer drop - b shorter raise - c longer drop )? Or is it a bit more specific, like (also according to the figure): a doesn't drop below 4, c does?

And the EW theory took a lot of research, whatever its value. If this isn't EW, why is it supposed to work? Is it a "good enough" approximation? Is it to establish the validity of Spike's approach? Or is it just to cheer at each success scored this way? All may be valid reasons for this thread, and there may be others, but it would be nice to establish what is what, so the experts can avoid messing up each other's shoeshine.

And I think Dave's comment ("that is not a b") still is interesting, not along the lines of "I know my theory better than you", but to see what this means for the bottom line, i.e. $$$.

Regards,

Karel

Karel,
Decently put Karel but not so much in defense of Spike's take on the EW theory but more so on the way he has set up his take on what he's been putting out here in his posts. He's always stated that he stretches the theory to a point, not where it is completely off base an out of line, but to where it is very close to what the theory spells out. Sometimes each of us in their take on any analysis sees it a specific way an others may or may not agree. The bottom line is that no one here is saying to buy on their recommendations or analysis but to point out a setup that may or may not follow thru. It's been working for Spike an alot of us for quite some time now and like ascending triangles, symetrical triangles, rising wedges, or any number of various chart formations it's all meant as that persons take on it. How we interact when we disagree is another thing. We're all strong personalities here and all apparently have strong beliefs in how we look at our analysis. Perhaps we have to look at how we disagree and how we state our disagreements to further a more positive dialogue. My own opinion is that on the large part Spike EW analysis has brought alot of people here on this forum to where they have learned some of the basics of EW theory and can now understand some of how it works and what is going on in trying to use it for themselves. To strengthen their own education on it then each individual should go out and either pick up a book on it or perhaps take a free online seminar on it. I have posted a number of times on a site where anyone can get a free education on the basics and some advanced work on EW. It is up to the individual to teach themselves more if they want it to be able to know the differences in an analysis. But anyway it's all good and lets keep the dialogue flowing in a positive manner.

[Runner]

http://img475.imageshack.us/img475/5446/brcm1qo.png (http://imageshack.us)
This is now in day 3 from trigger line off daily chart

[spikefader]

ALKS in the 'c' today. And intraday right now it's right near that gap support of 23.48. Long here, 23.50 with stop under lod is 3% risk. Not bad.

[Karel]

Hi all, I just closed the poll. It would seem we already have such a thread. :)

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

ALKS in the 'c' today. And intraday right now it's right near that gap support of 23.48. Long here, 23.50 with stop under lod is 3% risk. Not bad.
ALKS chart. I note price may be searching for lod - potential double bottom setup with an expanding channel long today.
Remember: this 'c' very well may search for gap support 21.68, that's the next play if it takes out today low.

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/9711/alksjan205rv.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I'm leaving ALKS alone. My plan failed on it and will pass. I don't like the gap down against the trend. Good luck with it Spike!

[spikefader]

I once had a very wise man once tell me sumfin that has stuck with me. He said, “ learn how to step on a man’s shoes with out messing up his shoeshine”. If ya think about it for just a second it makes sense.
Thanks Runner. That's an excellent proverb.

I guess the intent of stepping on those shoes in the first place is key. Sometimes they do it accidentally as they are merely seeking to get closer to another. Sometimes it's without malice cuz the person wants to get in front of you as you're walkin' to danger, to save you and steer you right. And then there's the flipside to those; sometimes people just enjoy messin' up shoeshine cuz they enjoy the reaction they get. Other times it's to maliciously scuff an impressively shined up pair of shoes. Comes down to whether it's intentional or accidental I guess.

I think it's safe to say Stickler has scuffed my shoes.

His silence since his ridicule speaks volumes about his intent....and character for that matter.

Anyway, onward cuz it's all good - well, most of it anyway....

OK, where were we? Oh ya, simplicity, and profiting from it. I'm lookin' at BEL impulsing again....and off a 'c' area. I'll draw up a chart.

[spikefader]

BEL lovin' it.
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/565/beljan209ek.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Thanks Runner.

That's an excellent proverb.

I guess the intent of stepping on those shoes in the first place is key I guess. Sometimes they do it accidentally as they are merely seeking to get closer to another. Sometimes it's without malice cuz the person wants to get in front of you as you're walkin' to danger, to save you and steer you right. And then there's the flipside to those; sometimes people just enjoy messin' up shoeshine cuz they enjoy the reaction they get. Other times it's to maliciously scuff an impressively shined up pair of shoes. Comes down to whether it's intentional or accidental I guess.

I think it's safe to say Stickler has scuffed my shoes.

His silence since his ridicule speaks volumes about his intent....and character for that matter.

Anyway, onward cuz it's all good - well, most of it anyway....

OK, where were we? Oh ya, simplicity, and profiting from it. I'm lookin' at BEL impulsing again....and off a 'c' area. I'll draw up a chart.

Spike, you’re a winner in my book. You keep-on- keeping on!!

[Karel]

Thanks Runner. That's an excellent proverb. [...]
Errm, spike, it is an excellent proverb, but the way I read it, you're supposed to apply it to yourself. If there is any applicability. In the third person it just doesn't work as well.

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

Errm, spike, it is an excellent proverb, but the way I read it, you're supposed to apply it to yourself. If there is any applicability. In the third person it just doesn't work as well.

Regards,

Karel

Once many years ago.... After an evening of heavy brandy consumption.... I stepped on my own shoes and ruined them.

Hey Spike! Maybe steckler is just.... drunk. That just might explain why he won't play our rough and tumble POTW huh?.... Notice how I entered his pick SILC anyhow.jejeje

[spikefader]

lol Lye, many years ago?? .... ya right! yuck yuck yuck.

Collateral damage during heavy nights......yup, I think we all got stories like that one. Mine involve the cops and ERs lol Doh! Memories of a sinner's life coming back to haunt me! lol

Well if he is drunk he sure types well. Only a seasoned alcoholic can manage that feat!!! ...... But if he were drunk, where's the bravado and Dutch Courage to enter into the competition??? hehe See that little dog run! lol

[spikefader]

MDR looks like the 'c' is in now. I'll look to buy the intraday pivot tomorrow I think...MDR earlier chart http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=37323&postcount=22
Long here 49.35. sub 2% risk.

(http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

FCBP: 'c' is done.

http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/3571/fcbpjan186so.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Impulse you little doggy! 'c' long proves itself again.
http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/8363/fcbpimpulse9yb.jpg

[RL]

When will the c thread start? I'm Itching to start trading.

[The Photon]

si si spike bring it!! -

[spikefader]

When will the c thread start? I'm Itching to start trading.
si si spike bring it!! -

Oh...ya.....I had thought to keep it in this current thread. Should I start a whole new one?

Karel, wat wilt u me doen?
(http://www.worldlingo.com/en/products_services/worldlingo_translator.html)

[Karel]

Oh...ya.....I had thought to keep it in this current thread. Should I start a whole new one?

Karel, wat wilt u me doen?
(http://www.worldlingo.com/en/products_services/worldlingo_translator.html)
I want to hit you over the head for mangling our beautiful language! :) (Your Dutch translates back as: What do you want to do to me) It appears that Dutch has some peculiar difficulties. A better translation would have been: Wat wil je dat ik doe? = Wat do you want that I do? (informal "je" instead of formal "u" please! I am not your broker!) Or: Wat zal ik doen? = What should I do?

Now, Peijnenborg, what about an answer? Well, I think there is a lot of discussion here already, so why not keep it here? If the poll starts to bore you, I think it could even be removed.

Regards,

Karel

[RL]

Spike why not keep It where It Is?

[jiesen]

how about taking a poll to decide where to put it?

[mimo_100]

how about a compromise -- leave this thread for ongoing discussion,
then start a new thread just for entries and exits.
Tim

[spikefader]

...I think it could even be removed....Removed!!!???!!! lolol oh Karel! heh, you strike a deep wound to the hearts of us 'c' connoisseurs for not seeing the value! lolol :)
Perhaps it's because of my failure to define rules and precise methodology and specifically identify why "it is supposed to work". Frankly, I thought there were enough examples in the charts I've posted in my thread to at least raise interest, which is what appears to have occurred with an overwhelming percentage if you look at the poll results :D

But I'm not seriously fussed Karel. I can keep all this mess in my thread if you want. I thought I might encourage others to act as spotters and throw the symbols up if they happen to see one. I like to see 'em. There's enough of them occur out there, and enough that work wonderfully.

The suggestion it can be removed if I get bored with the thread is a little dismissive of what others have voted for. This thread wasn't designed for me; but the rest of the forum dude. In the face of the poll results, in the face of the encouraging replies, and in the face of a suggestion it become a sticky is somewhat dismissive and inconsiderate of the broader MM audience Karel, not to mention you hurt my feelings ~waaaaahhahahaha~ hehe

http://cache.corbis.com/agent/13/16/44/13164422.jpg jejejeje (it's contagious that laffter)


But seriously, I don't think I need to define strict terms cuz the pictures speak for themselves. If someone wants to work out the statistics, have at it. Anyone willing to do an in-depth system analysis of the likelihood of success, volunteers are welcome. The purpose of this thread is as the title clearly indicates. It's a heads up thread so that maybe a few of us knuckleheads can make a few bucks. In my view a 'c' is a valid entry area, and defines a strong and logical low risk stop location in a very simple manner. It ain't rocket science.

Sure, it's breakin' all the rules, but shoo, sometimes rules just gotta be broken......when they are just ridiculously complicated and uncertain for sure, which is what strict EW is in my view.

Great risk/reward and potential for impulse move is all I'm lookin for. I'm sure not looking to impress Academia. If they don't get impressed by what I see as obvious then Academia needs an uppercut.

Make 'em pretty dudes!

[spikefader]

I want to hit you over the head for mangling our beautiful language! :) heh, a thousand apologies my friend. It was not my intention. I cannot boast my language skills at all. I used that silly translator thingy just fer fun. I typed in proper English and it spits out that. Who designs these things! lol Maybe ya get what you pay for; it was free obviously hehe

Is there a good one you can recommend? I don't wanna learn Dutch yet lol

[Karel]

Hi spike, rest assured: I was just talking about removing the poll, not this thread! Bless me! What do you think?

I wouldn't know about a good place for Machine Translation English > Dutch. Perhaps the one you used is good enough. I guess that when you use sentences with lots of concrete words, things will be alright. ("When you mix concrete, don't add too much sand" > "Wanneer u beton mengt, voeg teveel zand niet toe"; crummy, but understandable). Short sentences without concrete words might backfire.

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

OPLK in the 'b'

http://img66.imageshack.us/img66/8365/oplkjan241ha.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Hi spike, rest assured: I was just talking about removing the poll, not this thread! Bless me! What do you think?

I wouldn't know about a good place for Machine Translation English > Dutch. Perhaps the one you used is good enough. I guess that when you use sentences with lots of concrete words, things will be alright. ("When you mix concrete, don't add too much sand" > "Wanneer u beton mengt, voeg teveel zand niet toe"; crummy, but understandable). Short sentences without concrete words might backfire.

Regards,

KarelAhhh! I think poorly! lol Apologies for doubting you! hehe

OK, yes, remove the poll. I think it suffices that we've observed the results were 95% yes.

Thnx fer the language comments.
"When you mix concrete, joint too much sand not" hehe

[alice4321us]

OPLK in the 'b'

http://img66.imageshack.us/img66/8365/oplkjan241ha.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

What should be the entry and exit price for this.

To enhance my knowledge, do we buy in b or c or after c completes. How to know if c is complete.

Thanks

[alice4321us]

SHS formation. Neckline break a 81. Any charts would be helpful.

[spikefader]

GNTA setting up.

http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/6497/gntajan24c4ds.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

CIB late to the party. Still worth bidding for though. Bid just over 'c' and stop placement just under 'c'. It's Vulcan-like logic! :D 1% risk to target 35.00ish, and the weekly 5th up, for 18% profit; r/r of 18 is very nice.

http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/693/cibjan24c1uj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

GNTA setting up.

http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/6497/gntajan24c4ds.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Spike ya think BBH is looking ready?

[spikefader]

What should be the entry and exit price for this (OPLK).
To enhance my knowledge, do we buy in b or c or after c completes. How to know if c is complete.
Thanks
Hi alice,

I think entry very much depends on how you like to trade and your tolerance for risk. For OPLK, it's still in the 'b' so where that finally finishes will affect where you start lookin really. It may still shoot to new highs, not give the 'c', and ruin the pattern, in which case you just let it go. Assuming it finished the 'b' tomorrow and drops for the 'c', I'd start looking around 15.38 for an intraday pattern to take shape. I'll be watchin this one, so I'll post any entry I see.

For these 'c' longs these are the options that come to mind:

1) Try to anticipate the 'c' completion. Meaning you're trying to catch the end of 'c' at the lowest point as price bounces. There's a bunch of ways you can try and do that, e.g. patterns or channels, or divergences, indicators or whatever. I prefer patterns. I also like tight stops and have the time and inclination to search. You on the other hand may not have the time to do that, so perhaps intraday FIB numbers or pivot points that are definable the night before can work too.
2) You can wait for the 'c' to prove it's in by daily candle prices start making higher highs then bid low and hope price comes back; it may not and you miss it.
3) You can wait for the 'c' bounce intraday, then for price to start finding intraday support and higher highs, you may even prefer to wait a day or two for the perfect pattern or reason to enter. Remember though, buy weakness at support and don't chase price and be impatient unless there's a bull flag or something to justify chasing it. Perhaps at an intraday pivot, S1 or S2, intraday bullflags, impulse correctives, intraday 'c' long, or whatever pattern or indicator you prefer.

The problem with option 1) above is you may anticipate wrongly or too soon and stop out. The problem with 2) is price has moved up and away from the optimum 'c' area and you expose yourself to more risk if you chase it.

Goes without saying that 'c' longs do fail! So just stop out and dust off, move on and stalk the next entry.

Good luck with any 'c's you take alice! Post the details or charts if you like; the thread is as much yours as it is mine. :D

[spikefader]

MDR earlier chart http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showp...23&postcount=22 (showpost.php?p=37323&postcount=22)
Long here 49.35. sub 2% risk.
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=37323&postcount=22http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/8717/mrdjan20day5ia.png (http://imageshack.us)


MDR another successful launch from the pad.
http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/230/mdrjan24impulse11vx.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Spike ya think BBH is looking ready?Setting up now isn't it?

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/2803/bbhjan248ko.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

GFIG 'c' might be done.

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/8003/gfigjan246kb.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

I think it's time I put in a chart that shows what can happen when a 'c' long fails. It's for OWENQ back earlier last year.

This is for anyone who takes one of this funky 'c' long entries and watches it break the 'c' support and holds on in hope that it recovers.

BE WARNED: c failures can lead to big moves, like in the chart below. If you're experiencing red hope, replace it with red fear of losing more. Just take the hit, stop out, dust off and look for the next setup. -2 to -4% loss is a TON better than -50% or worse.

Make the r/r ratio really nice, and the numbers on your side, and the stop outs won't matter once you nail a few really nice 5 wave moves.

And if you're holding a winner, and get the fear of losing that profit, i.e. green fear, replace it with green hope of making more!

http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/1250/cfailure2cu.jpg

[spikefader]

Re http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=38594&postcount=6381 from my thread, HANS setting up here for lovely risk of only 0.7% if you bid S2 and stop under 'c' at say 89.50.

http://img364.imageshack.us/img364/1681/hansjanuary252bl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Hey folks! Here's another example of failing to underestimate the power of a 'c' failure.

I took GM short in the Port of the week competetion Monday morning, no stop cuz I'm really bearish on GM. lol Doh!

Getting my head handed to me! And I deserve it....

So learn this lesson everyone! When 'C's fail, they can fail BIG. HUGE even! lol :D So make 'em pretty.

http://img390.imageshack.us/img390/2874/gmouch0te.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

OPLK.

alice,

Today's thoughts on OPLK:

http://img390.imageshack.us/img390/2885/oplkjan257qc.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

FCBP update:
re this post http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=38391&postcount=61

http://img390.imageshack.us/img390/5842/fcbpjan255ea.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Setting up now isn't it?

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/2803/bbhjan248ko.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Spike what would you say your average time in position from your C entry? How does this entry line up with the intraday chart in relation to your EW. Example you enter off the beginning of C on the daily, but you intraday chart is showing a completion of 5

thankX for the chart..

[Runner]

Spike what’s ya think of the Amex Biotech Index?

[spikefader]

...How does this entry line up with the intraday chart in relation to your EW. Example you enter off the beginning of C on the daily, but you intraday chart is showing a completion of 5
thankX for the chart..
Hey Runner, I'm confuzzzzzzzed lol I'm not understanding this question. Are you saying this: "How does a 'c' long entry line up with an intraday chart for entry (meaning trigger)?" or said another way, "What do you look for on an intraday chart before you take a 'c' entry?". Is that what you're asking? Are you citing that BBH chart count re the completion of 5??

Also, your example of "enter off the beginning of C" is early. You wanna be entering at the end of C.

LOL Sorry if I'm making no sense. It's been a long day :D

[spikefader]

Spike what’s ya think of the Amex Biotech Index?Cool chart. The weekly shows the 725.70 was an upper reg channel profit-taking tag.....
Here's the daily. See how the pink 'c' and green 'a' corresponded with channel longs!
Clearly bullish bias. Long-term I'm seeing 865.00 for it.
http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/8628/btkjan265yu.jpg

[Runner]

Spike, sorry for all the confusion ..lol I wanted to try to prove a point that I think is very valuable to being on the right side of the trade. I chose BIO as my example. Ideally you want to find stocks within the sector that is mirroring the Index or sector chart. I have found that the more wind you have at your back the better.

[Runner]

Spike I think TLAB may be a C play off the daily chart. Nice P/B to support. One thing I was concerned about is the possible formation on a S/H/S on the daily. How do you see the daily on TLAB?

[New-born baby]

Spike I think TLAB may be a C play off the daily chart. Nice P/B to support. One thing I was concerned about is the possible formation on a S/H/S on the daily. How do you see the daily on TLAB?
Runner,
I am posting to compare what Spike/Runner say vs. my chart below.

I couldn't EW my way out of a paper bag, so I couldn't spot a "c" long without you or Spike pointing one out with a magnifying glass. So here's how I look at that TLAB chart. My view is that today is pivotal. The STOs all say that TLAB hasn't bottomed here, as well as the s~h~s setup that you pointed out. I see $9.80 or lower as the bottom for the lab. But today the chart could reverse, (IMO), if TLAB is able to jump up off the current $10.50 support. I would have to wait for the STOs to confirm the bottom for me.

http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/633/chart19kx.gif

[spikefader]

Spike, sorry for all the confusion ..lol I wanted to try to prove a point that I think is very valuable to being on the right side of the trade. I chose BIO as my example. Ideally you want to find stocks within the sector that is mirroring the Index or sector chart. I have found that the more wind you have at your back the better.Well shoo Runner lol my head hurts now! lol

"Right side of trade" I agree. The wrong side sucks bilgewater! heh

Does one measure that right side by "Ideally mirrororing" a sector chart? Obviously you (Runner) do. And if someone forced me to answer whether that's smart, I'd be fooling to disagree; cuz it goes against logic ... or at least one side of logic, but there's another side to logic, that I'll express.

Stocks often run opposite to what its sector is doing; sometimes expectedly (sometimes inexplicably). But either way, price action in the chart and reactions to support and resistance are the key to the puzzle. Show me any chart that runs opposite its sector (including the one you've provided in your first question - BBH vs $BTK) and I'm sure there's a S/R price action story to tell. With your 2 examples, Runner, it's clear that BBH is selling harder on the down days, falling through more supports relative to the index. The obvious conclusion that jumps to mind is that it's a dog. But without looking at the longer-term charts for it and doing full analysis on the chart I'm not prepared to try and explain the 'why'. But bottom line, the 'why' is real and it's weaker. Now if a count happens to set up for it, then based on that issue weakness don't you think it presents an arguement that it's one day soon gonna offer a nice short?

Perhaps on a weak $BTK that'll happen, then perhaps the BTK may sudden git bearish unexpectedly. It might be gonna drop for the green or pink C and who knows, it may even fail both of them (remember the weekly profit-taking tag). Should THAT happen, then I'd expect BBH is gonna be a shot duck.

But bottom line to summarize that is that he BIO index isn't gonna save a crappy bio stock that screams "short me" "short me" "I'm a dog" hehe

And residing above ALL of that is the fact that all one can do is find those great r/r setups that put the numbers on your side. Any bias I have for a market or sector is exactly that.....bias. If you eliminate any trade based on sector bias, in the face of a great count, and then the count proves right and bias proves wrong, then you've not only missed a great trade, but if one is stubborn thinking "I should have been right', then you're left befuddled until you're prepared to admit you were wrong to assume anything about the market. Meanwhile the one you've let go cuz it wasn't "in line" with a sector index may prove over the weeks following that you were a knucklehead to presume anything other than what was in the stock's chart in the first place.

The market within a specific issue will do what it wants to do; in the face of broader sector or market bias.

Assume nothing, expect nothing, plan for everything, be positive and decisive.

Thanks fer the thoughts, Runner. It's an interesting debate.

[spikefader]

GNTA 'c' is in now. Man I don't like that weekly money flow. I think I'll pass on it.

[spikefader]

OPLK 'c' appears in, daily higher high.

Long here 16.46 just under pivot.

Risk with 2% stop (under 'c') to target impulses to +25% area. r/r of 12.5 pretty good.

I also note intraday yesterday on a 1 min chart, there's 5th down move and abc 'c' short failure type pattern around current levels, so this is 'c' resistance yesterday that is now support logic.

http://img226.imageshack.us/img226/5920/oplkcentryjan260am.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/5188/oplkimpulsesintraday0ty.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Runner,
I am posting to compare what Spike/Runner say vs. my chart below.

I couldn't EW my way out of a paper bag, so I couldn't spot a "c" long without you or Spike pointing one out with a magnifying glass. So here's how I look at that TLAB chart. My view is that today is pivotal. The STOs all say that TLAB hasn't bottomed here, as well as the s~h~s setup that you pointed out. I see $9.80 or lower as the bottom for the lab. But today the chart could reverse, (IMO), if TLAB is able to jump up off the current $10.50 support. I would have to wait for the STOs to confirm the bottom for me.

http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/633/chart19kx.gif

NB, I just got home and have you checked out what happened to TLAB?

[Runner]

Well shoo Runner lol my head hurts now! lol

"Right side of trade" I agree. The wrong side sucks bilgewater! heh

Does one measure that right side by "Ideally mirrororing" a sector chart? Obviously you (Runner) do. And if someone forced me to answer whether that's smart, I'd be fooling to disagree; cuz it goes against logic ... or at least one side of logic, but there's another side to logic, that I'll express.

Stocks often run opposite to what its sector is doing; sometimes expectedly (sometimes inexplicably). But either way, price action in the chart and reactions to support and resistance are the key to the puzzle. Show me any chart that runs opposite its sector (including the one you've provided in your first question - BBH vs $BTK) and I'm sure there's a S/R price action story to tell. With your 2 examples, Runner, it's clear that BBH is selling harder on the down days, falling through more supports relative to the index. The obvious conclusion that jumps to mind is that it's a dog. But without looking at the longer-term charts for it and doing full analysis on the chart I'm not prepared to try and explain the 'why'. But bottom line, the 'why' is real and it's weaker. Now if a count happens to set up for it, then based on that issue weakness don't you think it presents an arguement that it's one day soon gonna offer a nice short?

Perhaps on a weak $BTK that'll happen, then perhaps the BTK may sudden git bearish unexpectedly. It might be gonna drop for the green or pink C and who knows, it may even fail both of them (remember the weekly profit-taking tag). Should THAT happen, then I'd expect BBH is gonna be a shot duck.

But bottom line to summarize that is that he BIO index isn't gonna save a crappy bio stock that screams "short me" "short me" "I'm a dog" hehe

And residing above ALL of that is the fact that all one can do is find those great r/r setups that put the numbers on your side. Any bias I have for a market or sector is exactly that.....bias. If you eliminate any trade based on sector bias, in the face of a great count, and then the count proves right and bias proves wrong, then you've not only missed a great trade, but if one is stubborn thinking "I should have been right', then you're left befuddled until you're prepared to admit you were wrong to assume anything about the market. Meanwhile the one you've let go cuz it wasn't "in line" with a sector index may prove over the weeks following that you were a knucklehead to presume anything other than what was in the stock's chart in the first place.

The market within a specific issue will do what it wants to do; in the face of broader sector or market bias.

Assume nothing, expect nothing, plan for everything, be positive and decisive.

Thanks fer the thoughts, Runner. It's an interesting debate.

Spike very interesting view you raise. Yes stocks do run opposite of the sector in fact those stocks are known as cockroaches. The question is how long does the cockroach run until it gets hit with some raid?,,lol. Just kidding, yes I feel when the sector is trending you have a better chance of success instead of fighting the sector in general. I’m sure many can find the ace that proves my view wrong. I guess that’s what makes this game so interesting is the numerous ways one can profit from the market.
I’ll follow the BIO stocks for a while and see what happens.

[spikefader]

Spike I think TLAB may be a C play off the daily chart. Nice P/B to support. One thing I was concerned about is the possible formation on a S/H/S on the daily. How do you see the daily on TLAB?Yep, I would have thought the same, but ....NB, I just got home and have you checked out what happened to TLAB?
look at it go......LOL nice call!

[New-born baby]

Yep, I would have thought the same, but ....
look at it go......LOL nice call!

This "C" long stuff--I think I might profit by learning it, don't you? :D

[Runner]

This "C" long stuff--I think I might profit by learning it, don't you? :D
NB, things only work when they work and the rest of the time we try it make something work that won’t work and thus try to force it to work and lose money in the process !LOL

Just kidding we ya!

[spikefader]

Re http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=38594&postcount=6381 from my thread, HANS setting up here for lovely risk of only 0.7% if you bid S2 and stop under 'c' at say 89.50.

http://img364.imageshack.us/img364/1681/hansjanuary252bl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)HANS traded down below yesterday's S2 I see. I'm long from today's pivot 91.78. Stop under C is 2.5% risk.
[/url][url="http://imageshack.us"]http://img477.imageshack.us/img477/3051/hansjan268vc.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Best with it spike 14 day Volatility is about $9.27 So hope you got that perfect entry!

[skiracer]

NB, things only work when they work and the rest of the time we try it make something work that won’t work and thus try to force it to work and lose money in the process !LOL

Just kidding we ya!

Runner,
You're absolutely right on. These things work only when they work. It's a great signal to watch for a good setup but nothing is for sure. We should keep a score on how many work vs fail. And when they fail they usually fail much worse than when they work with any type of setup not just these c longs.

[Runner]

Spike I think RHAT put in one of those C things. I saw it a short a few days ago and looks like day 2 of the c formation

[Runner]

Runner,
You're absolutely right on. These things work only when they work. It's a great signal to watch for a good setup but nothing is for sure. We should keep a score on how many work vs fail. And when they fail they usually fail much worse than when they work with any type of setup not just these c longs.
When ya really think long and hard is it all just an educated guess from the cup of noodles to the flying saucer?? I’ve been only trading one thing as of late and that is pullbacks well a pull back can always pull back more..hehe

[spikefader]

Thanks Runner. Hey ski, that's a great idea. Tracking win probability and average historical win/loss ratio would allow the equity curve calculation (simulator) (http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html). Once ya get that math expectancy number then you've got more ammo for proof that it's a winning concept. But shoo, I don't no stinkin' calculator! C longs rock dudes. hehe

[Runner]

Spike, thus far the stocks I put on page 2 of your thread are doing well. I think BRCM is getting read for the move with earnings or sumfin. I’ll run the S&P 500 monthly list this weekend and see what might be shaking..

[spikefader]

Spike I think RHAT put in one of those C things. I saw it a short a few days ago and looks like day 2 of the c formationGreat spotting Runner, thanks. I'll do a chart later tonight. Today's action confirms the 'c' at 26.50. I've just finished calculating potential entry points and corresponding risk reward, and the pivot buy at 28.12 leaves 5.7% risk if you put your stop C. S1 of 27.68 leaves 4.2% risk. S2 of 27.02 lays 1.9% risk, so S2 looks like a great r/r play. I've set an alarm for it anyway. On the chart, I really like that breakaway gap down there in September on volume and look at the large three-year weekly cup and handle (handle is this current ABC correction). I don't think 34.00 is out of the question, which is 26% profit target and a r/r of 13.6 with that S2 buy limit location. I think that's an awesome trade plan right there. Thanks for the heads-up.

[Runner]

I’ll keep my eyes open spike and pass them on to ya for a complete C wave check up. I was thinking confirmation was in today… Until then have a cheerful day!!

Ruunner signing over and out!!

[spikefader]

Long here 16.46 just under pivot.
Risk with 2% stop (under 'c') to target impulses to +25% area. r/r of 12.5 pretty good.

Into the 1 today :D

http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/2381/oplkjan269eg.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

This "C" long stuff--I think I might profit by learning it, don't you? :Dlol
http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/6062/clonglaff1vi.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Thanks Runner. Hey ski, that's a great idea. Tracking win probability and average historical win/loss ratio would allow the equity curve calculation (simulator) (http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html). Once ya get that math expectancy number then you've got more ammo for proof that it's a winning concept. But shoo, I don't no stinkin' calculator! C longs rock dudes. hehe

I'm not knocking the specific setup but there are a lot of variables involved. Like any setup you follow there will be a percentage that fail. Like Bulkowski has percentages on all of his chart paterns which give a better idea of what to expect from them if they are truly what he explains them as. I just thought it would be neat to follow a few dozen c long setups to get an idea of the number of positive outcomes vs failures. Like if you tracked the next 48 of them that fulfilled your analysis of what you're looking for specifically to see how many of them broke to the upside vs the number that didn't and how many held that break to the upside. What % gain off of a "c" down could you expect from the setup. If you could place a number or length on the "c" down what could you expect the breakout up to produce to call it a decent breakout off the c down. Might be better to just produce a list of the next 25 or 30 c long setups and see how they perform over the next couple of weeks. Another thing is how long do they get to either break up or fail after diagnosed as a c long. You would have to provide some parameters to judge them within. Just thought it would be interesting.

[spikefader]

Yep, all good thoughts there ski.

[Runner]

Spike, I have a simple question to ask you. From signal of C entry what is the average time that position is open?

[spikefader]

Spike, I have a simple question to ask you. From signal of C entry what is the average time that position is open?Oh goodie! I like easy questions :D heh

If you consider stop outs, failed patterns exits, time-wasting wash and the added subwave variable I'd estimate the average time is a week. If you don't include the variables and want the average of that perfect 5 wave move off a 'c' then it's I think 3 weeks is a fair answer.

[Runner]

Oh goodie! I like easy questions :D heh

If you consider stop outs, failed patterns exits, time-wasting wash and the added subwave variable I'd estimate the average time is a week. If you don't include the variables and want the average of that perfect 5 wave move off a 'c' then it's I think 3 weeks is a fair answer.


Ok Spike, ya making me scratch my head. Given both situations you mentioned what is average time in position? Now here is an added twist. What also is average gain/loss rate?

Since inception of the C push what is the hit rate. Example 50 trades open 32 wins and 18 losses.

[spikefader]

Shoo Runner. You're makin' me scratch my head! lol What point are you building up to make this time? Just spit it out and let's debate it hehehe

[New-born baby]

lol
http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/6062/clonglaff1vi.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Spike,
Apparently! But like everything else the Lord does, the blessing only fall upon those who believe. After seeing TLAB today, I BELIEVE! :D

[spikefader]

hehe Ain't it the truth. CERS is a better example though. That was C long entry.

[spikefader]

CELG sets up with C confirmed today.

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/4539/celgcisinjan272yg.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

BGO in the C down.

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/9023/bgojan27inthecdown7rm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

CELG and RHAT impulsing today; a day late to the party on these now - I just scratched 'em off the stalk list.

BGO confirms the 'c' low at 3.57. Today's pivot is 3.65. Thats around 2% risk with stop under 'c'. Got an alarm set there myself.

ALKS clearly showing the 1 up now :D Currently +4.25%.

HANS gives a little push today, yet to prove it's an impulse, but +3.25% so far is goot and izza perfecto enteree yesterdeee. :D

OPLK weakness today; stop out for even. Broke the 'c' on weakness this morning and gave intraday V bottom. Anyone still long should seriously consider bailing now with this +2% profit.

MDR +5% today and perhaps doing a 2; still mainting pattern and green hope calls for a 3 soon.

OK, calling all 'c' downs. Post any 'c' downs you see occurring today. The more eyes lookin' fer these the better! Come on folks, I know you're scannin' charts out there!! :D Lurkers and newbies welcome to post!

[spikefader]

HANS presenting another buy opp down near the 89.60 'c' area. Stop under 'c' sub 1% is wise.
EDIT: Now bouncing off 86.15 weekly gap fill support. Failed the 'c' now, so stalk mode for it gets over 'c' again.

[spikefader]

BGO in the C down.

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/9023/bgojan27inthecdown7rm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)BGO impulsing without coming back for a patient entry I see.

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/4127/sharpchartv05servletdriver6uz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)



So how would you have snagged this impulse? If you wanna follow the money and trend, use an hourly 20-day chart, wait for bullish psar and MFI of 70 showing money flowing into it. Trigger was yesterday at 3.78. You'd be sitting in 5.5% profit with stop to even. All great in hindsight, but it's worth pondering anyway as a trigger entry. You'd still be in if you'd done that with a 2% risk stop too....

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/5316/bgointra1hu.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Setting up now isn't it?

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/2803/bbhjan248ko.jpg (http://imageshack.us)In the 'c' now.

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/2366/bbhjan307ij.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

ALY:
"ALY coming off 'c' and into 1. Intraday 16.30 buy is sub 2% risk if you place your stop under the 'c'."
http://img65.imageshack.us/img65/8357/alyjan189rj.jpg

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=37462&postcount=33
+10% in a day, and it's just gettin' started.

And the impulse journey continues....now up 12.3% and all time highs.
http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/4797/alyjan304at.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Spike, ABC is incorrect....ABC is a corrective wave and the low of B has to be lower than the low of A. Your chart shows it higher.
:) seems simplistic counting proving (yet again) that nothin' has to be...

[spikefader]

Thanks Runner (monthly WYNN abc posted).
Here's the daily:

http://img319.imageshack.us/img319/1905/wynninc8wy.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

One might be tempted to chase this 3rd with a stop under 2?? But ideally, the first 'c' failed, and that makes me hesitant. Plus the fact that back in April there was a high vol gap down, and WYNN is currently at that resistance area. I think I'd pass on this one now, until perhaps the monthy confirms, then look for the next daily 'c' that pops up??Looks like this 3 of 3 of 5 up is confirming the monthly now..... Wait for the 5abc and buy the next 'c'.
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/4145/wynnjan308ia.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Spike, what ya think of bio stock AMGN? Might be near support..?

[spikefader]

Yep, clearly at price support. Wouldn't take it long meself though; money flow ain't too good.

[spikefader]

GNTA 'c' is in now. Man I don't like that weekly money flow. I think I'll pass on it.
http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/6497/gntajan24c4ds.jpg
http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/3259/gntajan307gl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
2.00 was a great entry afterall......

[sekto]

great call spike! Keep em comin =]

[spikefader]

HANS presenting another buy opp down near the 89.60 'c' area. Stop under 'c' sub 1% is wise.
EDIT: Now bouncing off 86.15 weekly gap fill support. Failed the 'c' now, so stalk mode for it gets over 'c' again.
OK, in review, 1st HANS long got as good as +4% before the pattern failed and stopped out for a push today; 2nd opportunity at 'c' stopped out -1%.

All things considered, only cost -1% for 2 attempts at that perfect 'c' entry; pretty cheap if ya ask me.

Now that 'c' has failed I'm striking if from the stalk sheet as other potentials get added today, including CRED, ISV, FNX which are acting impulsive and close to correctives starting.

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/6295/hansjan30cfails3kn.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

other potentials get added today, including CRED, ISV, FNX which are acting impulsive and close to correctives starting. and here are their charts....
http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/6046/watching8ra.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Spike, what ya think of bio stock AMGN? Might be near support..?

Spike,
Take another look at AMGN: broke through the price support at $73.13 (from the weekly chart in early Oct). Today, AMGN bounced up to retest that support-now-turned-resistance $73.13 line. It was rejected and pulled back.

My thinking: AMGN is right now set up for a short. My read says $60 is very possible. It broke through a lower DESCENDING Triangle support line.

Do you agree?
http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/2131/chart11fi.gif

[spikefader]

Spike,
Take another look at AMGN: broke through the price support at $73.13 (from the weekly chart in early Oct). Today, AMGN bounced up to retest that support-now-turned-resistance $73.13 line. It was rejected and pulled back.

My thinking: AMGN is right now set up for a short. My read says $60 is very possible. It broke through a lower DESCENDING Triangle support line.

Do you agree?
http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/2131/chart11fi.gifHey NB. I can't fault your bearish thoughts on it. I think there's enough in the chart to offer that AMGN is at risk of lower than higher in weeks ahead - but there are some bullish things in the chart too (i.e. weekly channel long last week with an hourly bullish island reversal).

Bottom line is I'm not impressed enough either way to want to trade it.

For Runner's observation I was merely confirming that I saw it at weekly price support from '01 and '03, but like I said before, I wouldn't take it long on that basis.

On your weekly chart, it resembles more a 'c' failure than a triangle - see chart notes as to why. But yes, based on that chart in isolation it appears bearish is the correct bias. But you know me, I like looking at longer-term charts cuz the way I see it you cannot ignore major price support from years ago. That's very relevant info to add to the s/r equation.

Other thoughts; I see gap support at 72.00 (from 7/19/05) that failed last week, but that failure was immediately addressed by bulls with a little island reversal on the 5 day hourly (chart below too); for whatever value an hourly chart is at this point in time hehe (perhaps of higher value when it's used to confirm the weekly channel long??).

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/8517/amgnjan300uh.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/945/amgnislandjan300zr.jpg

http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/7014/amgnweek6iy.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

AKAM in the 'c'. Stalkin' fer entry below '4' dudes.

http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/3430/akamjan31c1lk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[DSteckler]

AKAM is below its 20-day EMA. Assuming it closes below, you'd want to buy on today's close or tomorrow's open.

Why is that, you ask?

Because four of the last five times (on the daily chart) it traded below the EMA, the next day the stock made a positive move and within a couple of weeks, made a new high. On the fifth time it closed slightly lower the day after and then took off.

[spikefader]

Thanks for that 20 ema idea! Such simplicity just might work I tell ya! :)

I'll look at the closing price eod and see if there's a nice tight -2% support stop for it.

And something of interest about the 20 ema thing; isn't it neat that the reaction bounces at those areas coincided with 2s, 4s, 'a's or 'c's!

And the biggest moves occurred after c's and 2's. C's offered the biggest gains, a welcome observation.

[Runner]

amgn going off in pre-m

[spikefader]

amgn going off in pre-mheh yup, she is.

Note to self: weekly channel longs at strong price support with bullish island reversals on the hourly are good sometimes for +12% in a couple days hehe :)

[spikefader]

AKAM in the 'c'. Stalkin' fer entry below '4' dudes.
http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/3430/akamjan31c1lk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)...you'd want to buy on today's close or tomorrow's open. AKAM:
OK, today's pivot of 21.65 is a sub 2% risk play. It's also the '4' support area.
http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/7483/akamfeb19zc.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[sekto]

I like INSM and chart shows it now in C
Of course you're the expert spike so ill let you decide.

http://images3.pictiger.com/images/c4/bbd35e256b18933247552105c194cac4.png (http://www.pictiger.com/)

[spikefader]

INSM: sekto! You're brilliant dude! hehe

Look at that monthly chart over 10 years. That's Pick of the Year material! :D Big volume, cup with handle goin' on. I think a weekly close over 3.16 will be the prelude to some big gains for it this year.

I'm seeing huge support at 2.00. Money flow not the best on the daily, but weekly is better, and vol by price support is good on both the daily and the weekly too.

Thanks dude. It's on the stalk sheet.

[spikefader]

ISV 'a' alert. Pretty big 2 day discount......down to 1.30, I may nibble for the 'b' up....

CRED in the 'a' too.....

[spikefader]

INSM entry:
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/8104/insmclong9ya.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/1030/insmfeb20bs.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
EDIT: added daily.

[spikefader]

TSAI in the 'c'
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/4390/tsaiinthecfeb28xr.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

MDR another successful launch from the pad.
http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/230/mdrjan24impulse11vx.jpg (http://imageshack.us)Stop out for even on MDR (long from 49.35) as the pattern fails. No harm; next!

[spikefader]

FCBP: 'c' is done.

http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/3571/fcbpjan186so.jpg (http://imageshack.us)For thread info and stats, +8.5% on this setup, entry 55.43 exit today 60.14 (5th up on the daily).

http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/8589/fcbpexit9id.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

ISV 'a' alert. Pretty big 2 day discount......down to 1.30, I may nibble for the 'b' up....
In and out today for a quick 11%. Stalking for the 'c' for a swing long.

http://img434.imageshack.us/img434/7286/isvfeb2botthea1cd.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[TFred]

Greetings,

Spike ,you da man,I gotta get some EW knowledge.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

ALKS in the 'c' today. And intraday right now it's right near that gap support of 23.48. Long here, 23.50 with stop under lod is 3% risk. Not bad.

Stopped out even; the 3 failed today. No harm; next! :D

http://img419.imageshack.us/img419/7153/alksfeb25kj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

CERS c done now.

Suggested play is long intraday pivot 13.92 with stop under yesterday's lod; about 2% risk.

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/9786/cersfeb31bt.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

DDD in the 'a'

http://img342.imageshack.us/img342/9974/dddfeb38fk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

CELL in the 'c'

http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/9681/cellfeb33bc.jpg

[spikefader]

TRLG in the b
http://img308.imageshack.us/img308/8827/trlgfeb37wk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

STIZ just about finished the 'a' may be worth a play for the 'b' risking 3% under lod.

http://img448.imageshack.us/img448/8620/stizfeb32cz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

NRPH; missed this one today.

http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/5808/nrphfeb31ca.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

EPEX long setup now. 'c' is done.

http://img325.imageshack.us/img325/4702/epexfeb31ci.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

ISV 'c' long sets up with handsome r/r.

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/8280/isvfeb68gm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

EPEX didn't return to the pivot, so here's today's play.

http://img324.imageshack.us/img324/9079/epexfeb62vd.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

CRED in the 'b' up.

[spikefader]

LPX set up:
http://img415.imageshack.us/img415/4741/lpxfeb66ja.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[DSteckler]

If Friday's high had been 5 cents lower, today would have been an island reversal. Nice bounce Friday off the 20-day EMA with followthrough today.

[spikefader]

Stop out for even on MDR (long from 49.35) as the pattern fails. No harm; next!MDR a previous 'c' long that stopped out even, sets up today with a fresh count. 2% risk at today's pivot.

http://img326.imageshack.us/img326/8497/mdrfeb64an.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

MDR door opens:
http://img304.imageshack.us/img304/1050/mdrintra8qs.jpg

I'm nibbling down near the pivot. 2% risk. Putting for birdie. :D

http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/6664/mgoingforanmdrbirdy8eo.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

EPEX didn't return to the pivot, so here's today's play.

http://img324.imageshack.us/img324/9079/epexfeb62vd.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img343.imageshack.us/img343/5145/trigger7se.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img307.imageshack.us/img307/9256/epexintra1mh.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

ARP setting up:

http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/3910/arpfeb6inthec0es.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

EPEX takes its 2% stop as it heads to test the 'c' low of 30.82 which is under S2 today. If that holds I'll stalk another entry.

[spikefader]

MDR door opens:.....2% risk. Putting for birdie. :D

http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/6664/mgoingforanmdrbirdy8eo.jpg (http://imageshack.us)MDR:
http://images.usatoday.com/sports/golf/_photos/2005-08-14-tiger-miss.jpg missed the birdy putt and give up my 2%. Next!

[spikefader]

EPEX taking another shot with 2% risk at these levels near 'c' support. Inverted SHS to support, down near S2 intraday.

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/525/epexfeb72pa.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

EPEX -2%. Next. Maybe a 'c' short? Anyone see any?

[spikefader]

NG pounce time?

http://img277.imageshack.us/img277/7480/ngclongfeb71ai.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

EPEX -2%. Next. Maybe a 'c' short? Anyone see any?

Spike,
Its cold here in the Midwest, but warm in NYC where the Natural Gas (NG) traders are. So they are selling NG like water. Wouldn't want to take a long on a NG stock until the cold snap reaches NYC.
I am heavily into NG, oil and coal stocks, and my screen was very red all day. I am bullish on energy, just not today, unless I was buying the close.

If you are looking short, F, it seems to me, offers a good play.

[spikefader]

Thnx NB.

Just doin' the 'c' wild thang with EPEX; failure makes in a valid short I suppose :)

NG I was talkin' about NovaGold, basic materials/gold, not Natural Gas.

Thnx fer 'F' though; I'll look at it. Wanna find some 'c' shorts cuz I've been focussing on the long side of late.

[Runner]

http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/7234/tlab6ws.png (http://imageshack.us)
Little over 20% in this little TLAB stop....hehe

[Runner]

Spike, here are a few more stocks that have been beat up pretty good. Some have completed the ABC off monthly chart.
TYC TXN NTRS INTC HD MRK MSFT FITB BSX ORCL SYMC

If ya get a chance let me know what ya think of them. Remember looking off monthly and have yet checked out the weekly.

[spikefader]

Thanks a mil Runner! I'm gonna take a close look at these and stalk 'em all. You rock!

[spikefader]

INSM 'c' is done!

http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/2664/insmcdone5th.gif (http://imageshack.us)

This actually set up the other day with an inverted SHS with neckline break at 2.36 (posted) while it was still in the 'c' down and the intraday pattern failed.

But here it is again, confirming the 'c' is done today. You'll note this is the long I took in POTW today on the return to S1.

I am very bullish on the long-term pattern too. Cup with handle, all A-B-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-A-R-D!!

http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/9021/insmfeb88sj.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[mimo_100]

Spike,

You wanted us to look out for opportunities.

Well, take a look at NUAN -- I count it in an "A" wave right now.

Tim

[spikefader]

Thanks mimo! You rock!

Added to the stalk sheet. Wow, look at that money flow! New highs today I note.

[spikefader]

CHNR in the 'b'
http://img436.imageshack.us/img436/7866/chnrfeb97df.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

ENG c done?
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/8048/engfeb96uo.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

DDD in the b
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/10/dddfeb94uu.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

GRZ c done
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/5116/grzfeb90qg.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Just took a position in MIND. Looks to have bottomed off that last c wave down and turning up. I'm in at $18.70

[spikefader]

Just took a position in MIND. Looks to have bottomed off that last c wave down and turning up. I'm in at $18.70Great call ski. Joining you. Good luck dude.
http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/1784/mindfeb102oa.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

ENG juicy.

http://img490.imageshack.us/img490/7893/engfeb106xt.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

DDD in the c

http://img282.imageshack.us/img282/974/dddfeb108rc.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

CYMI tempting r/r 8.5.

http://img282.imageshack.us/img282/7831/cymifeb100mq.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

CHNR a volatile one.

http://img282.imageshack.us/img282/2508/chnrfeb106rv.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

http://img282.imageshack.us/img282/3587/mindintra0bm.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

CHNR a volatile one.

http://img282.imageshack.us/img282/2508/chnrfeb106rv.gif (http://imageshack.us)
And the bullish break, and +3% already if you took the trade.
http://img473.imageshack.us/img473/6916/chrnintra2yg.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

CHNR now +10% :D
http://img250.imageshack.us/img250/4651/chnrintra7fc.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Spike, I think AAPL is puting in a C. Might bounce from here?

[Runner]

Here my chart on Apple
http://img358.imageshack.us/img358/3111/aapl3ae.png (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Spike, I think AAPL is puting in a C. Might bounce from here?Yup, great observations there Runner. I just did a quick count and it's got 5 distinct waves up from 48.00 with subwaves in each, and now the abc you've noted. Good spotting. Neckline break of the intraday SHS down at 64.10 was the gold medal entry.

Intrday pivot of 66.19 might be worth taking, with a 2% stop at 64.85 that's under some price support.... If you target 79.00 then the r/r makes it a nice 10.
http://img450.imageshack.us/img450/3051/aaplfeb105zt.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Hey Spike ya think HANS is a short?

[spikefader]

CERS sets up long now
http://img449.imageshack.us/img449/8295/cersfeb105bs.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Spike:
What's your Target on CERS? I picked up some at $12.33 . . . .
I'd like the experts target and stop, pretty please with sugar on top! :D

[spikefader]

OK folks ......

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/1241/ratings6ce.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

OK folks ......

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/1241/ratings6ce.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Spike,
You've acquired 5 stars already. Can't give you anymore, can we? :D

[kc14526]

Spike:
What's your Target on CERS? I picked up some at $12.33 . . . .
I'd like the experts target and stop, pretty please with sugar on top! :D

I appreciate these posts as well! It would also help to know expected targets for all of those patterns so we know when to take our profit and run.

Thanks very much!

[spikefader]

Spike:
What's your Target on CERS? I picked up some at $12.33 . . . .
I'd like the experts target and stop, pretty please with sugar on top! :Dhehe just a monkey at the wheel! But certainly Sir! I'm thinking 24.20ish....
I view today's drop as just another handle to buy.

http://img376.imageshack.us/img376/2838/cerstarget5qd.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

A 2 bagger??!!! Oh if it will be so!

Thanks for the tune-up! :D
Out AAPL: what a bull! Almost, and should have, turned around and went long it. DOH!

[spikefader]

I appreciate these posts as well! It would also help to know expected targets for all of those patterns so we know when to take our profit and run.

Thanks very much!Kewl.

OK, you want to be targeting optimistically but realistically.......and I think it's a regular occurrence (at least in current conditions) that you'll see another 5 impulses. And 5 more waves is good for at least 15% I think; sometimes more, sometimes less; depends on the chart. Price resistance will vary from chart to chart naturally, but good point. I will try to remember to add a price resistance target off a weekly or monthly chart as well as assuming at 15% or better 5 wave target.

Now if you're really nimble, you might like the setups posted and risk 2% buy your system or routine only target 4-10% in the 1st or 3rd waves, exit and hop on another. All depends on what you are comfortable doing, how many positions you want to manage, and how much time you give them.

Many will fail or come back to tag your breakeven stop out, some will run real nice; maybe even a big gap up you can enjoy on volume that you throw into your long-term port. Some will start off well, then stall and break the impulsive nature of the chart....then it's time to hop off I think.

[spikefader]

Spike:
CERS...and stopforgot to address the stop. OK, a stop under low of day from your entry is 5.1%, which is good considering the target. I wouldn't hold it long if it drops below today's low. There will be another buying opp for it soon enough; maybe the gap or gap fill....
Remember, 'c' hasn't confirmed that it's in yet (by trading higher than yesterday's high).

[Runner]

sPIKE, using a 13 min intraday chart I think CERS needs to clear 12.40 area before it is out of the woods.
http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/4409/cers1ad.png (http://imageshack.us)

[TFred]

Greetings,

For a good laugh .check this out.

http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/1397/drl3vi.png (http://imageshack.us)

Could you staighten me out Spike,I do like the triangle that appears to be breaking up.

cordially Tom

[TFred]

Greetings,

As far as a play,Im considering buying support Monday,with a stop around 11.50,and a target of 14.

R/R = Risk .25 reward of $2.25

cordially Tom

[Runner]

Here is CERS group chart.
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/1856/bio4xj.png (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Spike,
You've acquired 5 stars already. Can't give you anymore, can we? :D

Spike,
You surprise me. Don't you know the answer already. Ok, I'll give you three stars!!! LOL. You're not going to be putting up a "is Spike a legend" thread are you? You'll be going over to the dark side next.

[spikefader]

lol; DRL is actually a good one in review. A chance for me to provide the laff hehe That's my simpleton count anyhoo.

Shows how a 'c' failure can can turn around a gap down on volume, and turn it into an impulsive bull. That gap down and support at 8.00 shows where it exhausted the sellers....

Channel wise, bulls took out the 11.70 channel shorts, so bias is long. Nice numbers for that play of .25 for 2.25 I think.

http://img324.imageshack.us/img324/9370/drlfeb101sa.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

CERS sports a round top.
http://mysite.verizon.net/resppzq7/roundingtop.html

Picture perfect, wouldn't you say?
http://img276.imageshack.us/img276/1854/chart10yq.gif

Could make a c failure still. Not concerned about it. The option chain is
incredibly strong.

BNT took a tremendous beating this week. I'm long gone, but I still watched the beating. :D

[spikefader]

Spike,
You surprise me. Don't you know the answer already. Ok, I'll give you three stars!!! LOL. You're not going to be putting up a "is Spike a legend" thread are you? You'll be going over to the dark side next.Good Lord no! lol It ain't about that fer sure. I'm just a monkey at the wheel!!! heh

But seriously, some folk may not seen much value in this stuff so I just want some feedback as far as reality on how many people are a) reading this mess and b) what they're getting out of it. I know there were plenty of yes votes for the thread, but now it's been going a while I see there were only 3 votes, so I'm tryin to get a bigger number of opinions. Why? Frankly, it takes a lot of time to do all this stuff and it'd be nice to know just how 'worthwhile' it's considerd by others. I know how good the setup is. I'm wondering how many other people are seeing the value too.

[New-born baby]

Good Lord no! lol It ain't about that fer sure. I'm just a monkey at the wheel!!! heh

But seriously, some folk may not seen much value in this stuff so I just want some feedback as far as reality on how many people are a) reading this mess and b) what they're getting out of it. I know there were plenty of yes votes for the thread, but now it's been going a while I see there were only 3 votes, so I'm tryin to get a bigger number of opinions. Why? Frankly, it takes a lot of time to do all this stuff and it'd be nice to know just how 'worthwhile' it's considerd by others. I know how good the setup is. I'm wondering how many other people are seeing the value too.

Spike,
I know you work like a dog. All of us pups out here appreciate it very much. We just never took the time to vote. I hadn't. I saw that there were five stars on it, and that settled it for me. I figured someone else had already settled the matter. :D In any case, keep up the great work!

[spikefader]

CERS sports a round top.
http://mysite.verizon.net/resppzq7/roundingtop.html

Picture perfect, wouldn't you say?
http://img276.imageshack.us/img276/1854/chart10yq.gif

Could make a c failure still. Not concerned about it. The option chain is
incredibly strong.

BNT took a tremendous beating this week. I'm long gone, but I still watched the beating. :D
Nice observation NB!

http://mysite.verizon.net/resppzq7/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/roundingtop.jpg

Yeah, BNT; sad failure that one. But they will do that. It's by keepin' em tight that we save ourselves! Grats on takin' the pain dude. Never easy.

[Runner]

Spike, here are a few more stocks that have been beat up pretty good. Some have completed the ABC off monthly chart.
TYC TXN NTRS INTC HD MRK MSFT FITB BSX ORCL SYMC

If ya get a chance let me know what ya think of them. Remember looking off monthly and have yet checked out the weekly.
I think ORCL is positioning to make a move. It is a thick stock and so you won’t get 20% returns in 20 days but I’ll keep an eye on it.
http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/3240/orcl9nt.png (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

CRED; might be worth a play at 22.95. Not really liking the SHS up top though....

http://img422.imageshack.us/img422/8261/credfeb108qx.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[DSteckler]

But does he play Fizbin?

[spikefader]

NG pounce time?

http://img277.imageshack.us/img277/7480/ngclongfeb71ai.gif (http://imageshack.us)This one failed for -2.2% yesterday.

[spikefader]

INSM 'c' is done!

http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/2664/insmcdone5th.gif (http://imageshack.us)

This actually set up the other day with an inverted SHS with neckline break at 2.36 (posted) while it was still in the 'c' down and the intraday pattern failed.

But here it is again, confirming the 'c' is done today. You'll note this is the long I took in POTW today on the return to S1.

I am very bullish on the long-term pattern too. Cup with handle, all A-B-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-A-R-D!!

http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/9021/insmfeb88sj.gif (http://imageshack.us)INSM update

http://img450.imageshack.us/img450/7985/insmfeb116lk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Hey Spike ya think HANS is a short?Yep; it's got a failed 'c' pattern, and channel short on Thursday. That high volume gap just exhausted itself and I'd be looking for gap fills now....

[spikefader]

BGO in the C down.

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/9023/bgojan27inthecdown7rm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)In review:
http://img467.imageshack.us/img467/258/bgofeb115dx.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

In the 'c' now.

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/2366/bbhjan307ij.jpg (http://imageshack.us)previous chart also http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/2803/bbhjan248ko.jpg

IN REVIEW:
I recall a discussion about BBH (maybe Runner??) about this one, and how it was in opposition to the sector and maybe not such a good trade. As it turns out, for whatever reasons, whether sector weakness or market weakness, or whatever (I actually haven't looked at the sector chart), that no matter what reasons that oppose the trade, ya gotta just trade the chart. Me, I trade what the chart is saying; not what the sector is doing or the market is doing. Stocks very often move contrary; and this is a classic example. All ya gotta worry aobut it putting the r/r numbers on your side, and sit back and see what the market hands you. In this case, you'd still be holding short with stop to even now.

I missed the thing; dunno why, just distracted I guess....

http://img467.imageshack.us/img467/3810/bbhfeb117bd.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Spike, I’m expecting a possible bump up in the BBH. If you draw a trend line connecting the lows and highs you’ll see how this channel has been playing out in the past. I see the BBH as being in a clearly defined downtrend. If the lower trend line is violated then Now we all know no guarantees for the future.hehe

My sub sector chart on BIO stocks has been clearly bearish. Yes many stocks will defy the sector trend. My group chart is made up of 169 bio stocks. I still think it helps to have the wind at your back. If the sector is falling out of bed I’ll pass on the trade even if the lone ranger looks good. Yes this may mean I miss a great trade but the wind is not at my back and therefore I’ll look elsewhere.

I agree once a trade is in progress you forget about everything else going on and only focus on the chart, but just me.. What causes a group to run? Is it not the big dogs jumping on board? What causes a group to crash? Is it not the big dogs cashing out? Is their any merit to looking at sector charts? I say yes because then you’re not just looking at one stock but a combination of every stock in the group.

[Runner]

CERS sports a round top.
http://mysite.verizon.net/resppzq7/roundingtop.html

Picture perfect, wouldn't you say?
http://img276.imageshack.us/img276/1854/chart10yq.gif

Could make a c failure still. Not concerned about it. The option chain is
incredibly strong.

BNT took a tremendous beating this week. I'm long gone, but I still watched the beating. :D
Hey NB, I think your right on this rounding top in CERS..I guess we shall see if the Bulls support the 50dma..

[New-born baby]

Hey NB, I think your right on this rounding top in CERS..I guess we shall see if the Bulls support the 50dma..

Yup, Runner, if this thing dips below Friday's low, kiss 'er goodbye, as she's going to tumble. I wouldn't like to see it return to $9.68 . . . .

[spikefader]

Yeah, good points Runner. And never truer words said: "No guarantees for the future". Ya nailed it. The more we try to predict, the more vulnerable we become to being proven knuckleheads fer tryin'! I guess it always comes back to trade what ya see and be prepared to turn on a dime :D And that's what's great about drawing r/r lines in the sand, and makin' stops tight. GM a recent reminder for me heh

I'll revisit BBH in a couple weeks and see how it tracked.

[Runner]

Folks, I’m doing a little follow up on Spikes recommendations with his C long calls. I’ll plot the day Spike posted the signal and the top or most profit that might have been made. Understand we never sell at the peak or buy at the bottom.

01/18/06 ALY long @ 16.30 Peaks 10.64% on 1/31/06
01/20/06 ALKS long @ 23.50 Peaks 5.78% on 02/01/06
01/20/06 MDR long @ 49.35 Peaks 6.59% on 01/24/06
01/26/06 OPLK long @ 16.46 Peaks 8.39% on 01/31/06
01/26/06 HANS long @ 91.78 Peaks 1.46% on 01/27/06
02/02/06 INSM long @ 2.36 Peaks –9% on 02/06/06
02/03/06 CERS long @ 13.92 Peaks .64% on 02/06/06
02/10/06 CHNR long @ 15.20 OPEN
Well this was the best I could come up with. Now this was taken only from a daily chart and I’m sure I missed several of Spikes set-ups. Also this does not tally spikes entry price. So the percentages are approximate.

Overall I think Spike has done a fine job folks with his C plays and is worth more investigation as to the profitability of the system. I do however think some would require being at the screen all day to monitor the action from an intraday perspective. Also if you’ll notice an important trait Spike uses. He always gives the r/r on each trade. Now all one would need to apply is the size of the position to apply for the trades. Using aggressive position management you can see his system is a success. In a questionable market might be wise to tread a little lighter then in a full-blown Bull!!

Spikefader, ya da man!!

[skiracer]

I like the concept and think it does work. I'm able to sit and watch the screen all day either in my home office or field site office and you really do have to be in front of the screen realtime to make the decision when it presents itself. Also to be able to see a failure, an I think they happen almost as often % wise as do the spikes up, and to be able to make the exit is crucial. I think the key is to be there in front of the screen to catch the c wave bottom and the move up when it begins or the failure if it goes that way. I still think it would be neat to follow a number of these setups for a couple of weeks and to see what the %'s are of winners vs failures. Somewhat like Bulkowski has done with his chart formations.

[spikefader]

Hey Runner; cool dude! Thnx fer doin' that tracking. Interesting numbers from that perspective. And you've prompted some thoughts I'll share for anyone still interested in 'c's after the fairly average results of late.

What should we be thinking about the 'c' system? What about its success/failure rate, the percentage win to expect, the average winner, and how to leverage it for success.

Firstly, I ask myself what is it about 'c's that are so attractive? For me, it's always been the big moves that have proven to follow them. Many many times in the Scientific thread I've chart up stocks that showed impressive moves coming off a 'c'; certainly enough to raise my own interest in them and try to employ them to look for that multi-wave move. For a long time I've focused on channels to look for perfect entries, and I remain convinced that they are in a league all of their own. A channel long with confirming intraday pattern is hard to beat when it moves nicely. But since observing the 'c' thing, it was clear that it was potentially just as good. In fact, curiously, 'c's and 'a's would occur on the very same day as a channel long. Go figure! Pretty cool huh. So one might ask, "What is it about those days?" And the answer is simple. It's a solid support area that gets bought. Channel longs, 'c's, FIBS, fans or an indicator, or price divergences or whatever. It doesn't really matter that much, cuz bottom line it's support ....... and if you join in on support that is bought, you get rewarded for it.

And THAT's the crux of the 'c' issue as I see it. Support is support until it isn't, and the smartest money in the world buys support and admits defeat early when wrong, and that same smart money holds the winners to fruition until it either meets a logical target or shows a reason to get off. A channel long is a channel long until it isn't, a 'c' long is a 'c' long until it isn't, support is support until it isn't. Do we know when or how often support is going to fail? Of course we don't know.....who does?? All you can do is support the support where it sets up for you, and bail at support failure or future resistance where it sets up for you. Hopefully that involves logic and good management, and your account increases not because you're the best winner, but because you're the best 'manager' of the losers. The profit is gained by applying sound money management and risk control. It's ALWAYS been about that, and WILL always be about that.

So bottom line is the WORTH of the 'c' long isn't the vital question guys! I think it's already proven to be a support point. We should just accept that and move on. The vital question is how do we trade around that support level? And the answer is the same as every other support level; you trade it with common sense and discipline.

The vital question involves the r/r and the discipline you apply to the support the chart shows you. Everything else in the equation is market force, and that, my friends, is beyond our prediction. Sure, we might have a good idea about it; but the market will humble the most stubborn trader who thinks he knows where the market is going. If there's one thing I know it's that I don't know where the market is going. Give me a chart, I'll put a bias on it, and I'll trade it, and rely on the r/r numbers to get me right. If I'm reckless to r/r and trade management, I'm headed for negative numbers.

So with all that in mind, examining 'c' long success or failure and trying to weigh up whether it's worth investing in, is a lot more complex than tabulating numbers of highs or % moves from entries that I've happened to see and post about recently. While that's interesting stuff Runner, I don't think one can draw too much from it. One might be tempted to look at the numbers and say, OK, I'm going to fit a model to the numbers I've seen the last 2 months. So you might be tempted to say, OK, I'm gonna target only 5% cuz that's the average I see. But what you're doing is basing your entry off a good r/r number but not sticking to that plan. So what that would mean then is you have to change, i.e. reduce, the risk allocated if you're only targeting 5% so that your r/r remains good. But if you do that, you may well get stopped out a whole lot more, or you may miss a whole lot more 'c' moves cuz your limit is down near low of day or whatever, while price rockets off without you because you can't afford big stops if you're targeting only a 5% move. Personally, I don't see the need to target shorter. My expectation is for a series of impulses and reward 10 times my risk. And to keep the logic unflawed then I'm going to have to provide the opportunity for them to get to that original target. Otherwise my logic and management and risk control is flawed, right?

Getting more specific to recent 'c' long calls recently, I think the only recent 'c' that has worked for another 5 waves is CERS, which I took as my Pick of the Year at $9.70, and gave a 52% high on that trade in just 16 trading days and has retraced to give another 'c' entry at $12.30 this past Friday. Here's the chart for that one:
http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/4302/cerscworked8be.gif

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/2524/cerswin8dm.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Right now, the stats of 'c's in this thread don't really reflect much success. There have been a handful of stop outs for -2%, and many more pushes for breakeven, after getting to as high as 13% for ALY (runner I think your 10% figure is miscalculated??) and +10% for a couple others. INSM gave that gap down through the stop area, but I used discretion to add into the weakness and not take the hit, and now it's open with 4% green and a chance to be a real winner.

But it's just a matter of time before several do react nicely and do the 5 impulse thing. And THAT's where the great money resides. I think one might be tempted to look at the numbers thus far and say, "Dude, just target 5% and move on". But I don't like the idea cuz you'll miss out on those CERS 52%+ winners, and targeting short like that is going to increase the churn and the trading costs and the effort required. Bottom line is that someone might only want to allocate a couple of 'c's into their broader trading style, and pass on others that present while they patiently wait for their targets. And so if that's true, as it is for me, the numbers are kind of meaningless. My point is that hunting for perfect 'c' entries with great r/r numbers is the key. Once you get them, and they go green, then allocate green hope to the trade, and see what happens. It might turn into a CERS or a VPHM (remember how many 'c's that bounced off for another 5). And if it's the case where you're only going to allocate room in your port for say two 'c' longs and you've maybe tried for 10 times to get 2 good ones, during which time you've stopped out 6 times for even, and 4 times for -2, totaling -8%, and you're now passing on every 'c' that you see while you give the two you do hold a chance to give you far in excess of the -8% that you've endured to get those 2 SuperStocks, so to speak. They may give you 50% each, so you've made 100% and it's cost you 8%. And while you're holding those 2 you endure the correctives, and broader market weakness, while the 'c' system ISN'T seeing much success, and it matters not to you cuz you're not trading it for the time being. Your winners are keeping you out of market chop, ya know?

And it the above is how it happens for you or me, then our actual success is not reflected by the system numbers that someone else may compile during cruddy times. Ski may use discretion to pass on some 'c's that present for his own discretionary reason, and I may too (like I did with GNTA - doh that 'c' moved for +65%), and ski may take the GNTA entry that I passed up on, and his system results are going to be different/better than mine for not taking that one.

And so it gets back to this:

This thread is merely a 'c' long heads up thread. It was never intended to 'prove' the worth of the setup. I know it's a great setup; I've seen 'c's turn into enormous winners over the months that I've talked about them. Market conditions are going to vary and have an impact on the setup, sometimes they'll just fire off with not many failures...other times, there will be lots of failures and only one or two firing off. And the difference....the edge....the profit-making quality within 'c' longs (or shorts) is how you apply your risk control to them. If you keep sub 2% stops, and be disciplined in the face of failing setups, and stay focused and quietly patient, then it's just a matter of time until you nails a couple of great entries, and let them sit in your port for the month or two that they turn into fantastic trades that blow your socks off. If you have an r/r of 10, that means you can afford 9 failures for every 10 setups and still be breakeven, less commission and slippage, of course. So your strike rate can be a pitiful 10% and still do OK..........and for the times when your strike rate is 50% with a bunch of impulses ..... it's party time, dude, cuz Mildred is gonna wanna go celebrate! :D lol

Make 'em pretty!

[New-born baby]

Keep a callin' 'em, Spike! I'm a believer! Go CERS! (up, that is) :D

[skiracer]

Keep a callin' 'em, Spike! I'm a believer! Go CERS! (up, that is) :D
NB,
My previous post wasn't suggesting that I didn't think the c wave setup doesn't work. I think it's a great point for a possible entry if you catch it when the timing is right. I also agree with everything Spike stated in his post about the r/r factor and the tight stops. With any position limiting the losses to a minimum and letting the winners run are the key factors. It's the same with any chart formation that you may think is going to move in the direction you're looking for it to go in. None of them are guaranted and the larger percentage will not work out the way you want them to. It's the management of the trade and your money that counts moreso than the chart formation or setup. I was just suggesting monitoring a number of general c wave setups to see what percentage worked out to get an idea and not to say that this is what you can expect. Just like symetrical triangles, ascending and decending triangles, bear and bull flags etc. Not all of them work out but there is a generalized percentage that will do what you expect them to. Some chart formations are closer to the true definition of what they are supposed to look like and some aren't but being closer to the true accepted definition of any chart formation may provide the better setup and result. There are always variables to consider in every instance. Like being in front of the screen to monitor the play has got to be better than setting a trigger and stop and going off to work and hoping for the best. The generalized acceptance of anything without considering all the variables will have an adverse affect more times than not. Your stating that you are a believer is exactly what I was getting at. For anyone to accept the setup as worthwhile is one thing but to think that they are all going to go in the direction that you expect them to isn't going to work out over the long run. But anyway the farthest thing in my mind was to knock the formation. I like the setup and the possibilities it brings. I was just curious as to how the percentages would work out if some number of them were closely monitored over a few weeks time. I bought MIND Friday afternoon off of a c wave setup
which looks to be working out. Hopefully it will continue to go in the right direction.

[spikefader]

Ski, I got what you meant; I didn't take it as a knock of the formation and I doubt NB did; I think he was merely being his usual positive self :D And you're right, ski, it's just another setup in the world of setups. Trade 'em according to your tolerances. Or pass on it cuz it doesn't suit your personality or whatever. Or pass on 'em cuz it's complete EW nonsense. It matters not to me; I just wanna make successful smart moves that turn a profit. 'c's are good cuz of the high expectation; and let's face it, impulsive up behavior is better than meandering boredom that doesn't move much. Impulses are the ones that will hand you 50% in a month, whereas setups in congestion or choppy stocks or spikey stocks aren't gonna do that. The 'c' presents an ideal potential to be exploited.

[spikefader]

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/8994/lightbulbexplode9hm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Hey!!!

You know what might be a cool idea! Focus on the really brilliant stocks.......what better than MM's latest data dump!!! (filtered to get the low volume and poor money flow ones out of course) :D

Yep, I like that idea!!!!!!!!! ........so what I'll do for something different and to improve the results (??) is focus only on THOSE.........and then just patiently track and wait until any 'c's present themselves.

So far we've got MM's Top 5, MM's winner, the Creme of the Crop, and now I could do MM 'c' Longs! What's a good name for them.........maybe MMC's?
Name suggestions welcomed!

[Runner]

My purpose of my last post was not to judge the C set-up or grade it in any means. You cannot get a feel for a system in 2 weeks or 2 months IMO. I thought the point was clear that I thought Spikes C calls have been pretty darn good. NB, I wish you well on CERS but that set up was not my cup of tea. I’ve never been good at picking bottoms and so if CERS is getting ready I feel it will offer another opportunity.

One common denominator in the stocks that surge 50% in one month and that is volatility. Heck look at CHNR it supports a whopping 250 over last 50 days. If your looking for the ones that really pop think Volatility >25.

Spike, keep up the great work as I enjoy this thread…

[spikefader]

Thanks Runner, glad you're enjoying the ride. I know I'm havin' fun finding these 'c's....especially when they pop :D

And ya, your point was clear, and thanks fer the compliment dude. I guess I went on a tangent with my own thoughts on it.

[spikefader]

OK, just finished doing the filtering to MM's The Canada Flag Day Data Dump and here's the list that's primed for 'c' long spotting. I've kept the higher volume stocks, and deleted any with really abismal looking money flow. I'll confine any calls to these 64 stocks and see how it goes.

ADAM AGII AIRM ARP ATLS BAS BLDR BLK BNT BTUI CBG CELL CEO CHRW CME CONN CRED CTRN ELP EPEX ERS ESCL EXBD FORM GIL GOL GRS HIS HLEX HLF HOLX HUBG HURC ICE ISE ISIL IVAC JLG JOYG KOMG LKQX MESA NETL NWRE OXPS PARL PETS PTR RBAK RMD RVSN SCSS SKM SMSC TEN TRAD TSU UEPS USG VRTX WCC WHQ WIRE ZIGO

[New-born baby]

Ski, I got what you meant; I didn't take it as a knock of the formation and I doubt NB did; I think he was merely being his usual positive self :D

Ski:
No offense taken. Man, I try hard not to take offense at anything; surely not from an experienced and successful trader who is trying to help me! :D

[Runner]

Still toying through the Nas 100. I don’t want to take up too much space on the thread. I realize these do not fit the criteria you’ve mentioned. I guess we shall see how they plan out in this year. If these charts posted pop the resistance I feel they will have some pretty good upward momentum.
http://img464.imageshack.us/img464/6802/ntap4dc.png (http://imageshack.us)
NTAP goes of after the bell! Target upper channel around 42

[Runner]

[QUOTE=Runner]Spike, I’m expecting a possible bump up in the BBH. If you draw a trend line connecting the lows and highs you’ll see how this channel has been playing out in the past. I see the BBH as being in a clearly defined downtrend. If the lower trend line is violated then Now we all know no guarantees for the future.hehe

QUOTE]
I think the bump in BBH has about run out.

[Runner]

Longer-term corrective C has been put in on T and it stands a good chance that the business cycle is changing.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/9143/t5dg.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Spike, ya think MIND might be trying to put in a C on the daily chart? I'm not clear on this one....

[spikefader]

NTAP goes of after the bell! Target upper channel around 42Exhaustion gap to double top on the daily?

[Runner]

You very well be right Spike about NTAP. Now if it tests the gap and gets bot this would be a positive as buyers step in. On the other hand if it stumbles here could have been just a sucker punch for bag holders!! hehe

[spikefader]

Longer-term corrective C has been put in on T and it stands a good chance that the business cycle is changing.
http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/9143/t5dg.png (http://imageshack.us)Thnx dude. You're offering some great long-term eyes to the thread! :D

T looks like it's in a 3 within a bigger 3. Worth stalkin'.

[Runner]

Holy molly Spike did you check out the daily chart of T. This might be worth looking for a pullback buy

[spikefader]

I think the bump in BBH has about run out.
BBH; I just did an alternate count for it. May still have the 5 down....and I actually like this count better becuz the 1 to 2 and 3 to 4 are clearly impulsive, which they're supposed to be right?

http://img393.imageshack.us/img393/5554/bbhfeb186vl.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Holy molly Spike did you check out the daily chart of T. This might be worth looking for a pullback buyYeah, a drop to 27.00ish would likely be a 2'c' long with a great target on the upside.

[Runner]

Nice chart of the BBH Spike.

[alice4321us]

Spike/Runner

Is APPL ready for a fall this week?

[spikefader]

Spike/Runner

Is APPL ready for a fall this week?Just mentioned AAPL as a 'c' long recently:
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=41024&postcount=199
You may get a 2 down soon.....

http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/7057/aaplfeb180lh.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I think AAPL is a real nice short candidate right here. Look to go short @ 69.25 with stop 72.92. If gap down at open wait to see if it reverses to the upside. If gap open look to fade. Once trade moves in favor trail stop. Initial target for now is 62.90. I’m thinking AAPL may be in a larger correction and if this assumption is correct it very well may have more downside too it.
It could be in a 4 of 5 of first leg in the corrective wave. Now as you are aware the big question is IF. Take this info with a grain of salt, as shorting has been my weakness last year….

[spikefader]

I think AAPL is a real nice short candidate right here. Look to go short @ 69.25 with stop 72.92. If gap down at open wait to see if it reverses to the upside. If gap open look to fade. Once trade moves in favor trail stop. Initial target for now is 62.90. I’m thinking AAPL may be in a larger correction and if this assumption is correct it very well may have more downside too it.
It could be in a 4 of 5 of first leg in the corrective wave. Now as you are aware the big question is IF. Take this info with a grain of salt, as shorting has been my weakness last year….Here's the weekly chart as I see it. Below 62.90 I'd switch to neutral.
http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/8420/aaplfeb197tz.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

http://img420.imageshack.us/img420/7109/aapl3jp.png (http://imageshack.us)
Spike, nice pick up. I had not even looked at the weekly chart. It does look questionable here. Now off the daily notice the 20EMA had acted as nice resistance from the last bump. One thing is for certain it did pop the down trend channel. If it does drop it very well may retest lows? Spike do you feel the risk outweighs the reward on AAPL?

[spikefader]

Spike do you feel the risk outweighs the reward on AAPL?
Yeah for me personally I just can't help but wanna trade in the direction of the bias I hold. I guess this being the 'c' thread I wanna be lookin' fer 'c' longs and hold that bias until the pattern fails.

Right now AAPL has confirmed the 'c', and showed a nice gold entry at 64.00ish http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=41024&postcount=199

and it's acted pretty bullish since then; getting +10% (fantastic call on your part by the way dude; hugeness!) from the neckline break entry. So while that 64.00 entry holds now I would be green hoping it that any resistance merely gets taken out cuz we're into impulsives up now.... only time will tell if impulses will occur or the c pattern fails.

So the short answer is yes, I feel the risk of further impulses up outweighs looking for the reward of a 2 down move.

[Runner]

I think AAPL is a real nice short candidate right here. Look to go short @ 69.25 with stop 72.92. If gap down at open wait to see if it reverses to the upside. If gap open look to fade. Once trade moves in favor trail stop. Initial target for now is 62.90. I’m thinking AAPL may be in a larger correction and if this assumption is correct it very well may have more downside too it.
It could be in a 4 of 5 of first leg in the corrective wave. Now as you are aware the big question is IF. Take this info with a grain of salt, as shorting has been my weakness last year….

AAPL triggers @ 69.25

[Runner]

AAPL triggers @ 69.25
Well I can admit I was off in left field with AAPL. I thought it was going down.. hehehe I know one thing for sure it won’t be the last time I’m proven wrong for the world to see!!!

[alice4321us]

Well I can admit I was off in left field with AAPL. I thought it was going down.. hehehe I know one thing for sure it won’t be the last time I’m proven wrong for the world to see!!!


Is it only me, I still see AAPL is a good short from here at 71.50 area with a stop around 73.15. Any thoughts from Pros??

[spikefader]

alice,

As far as the 'c' play goes, it's in its '3' up....so my bias remains long while the pattern holds.....but good luck if you take it anyway. Should it fall out of it's pattern, and get under 62.90 I'd be bearish.

[spikefader]

ICE was on the MM 'c' list too.....and worse, I actually watched this one in the 'c' and then didn't look for the entry.... Shoo; it even offered that 2% risk entry at 50.00 yesterday....

http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/2131/icefeb243xu.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

HURC sets up.

Gap seems like it wants to hold. Pretty bullish candle there.......

http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/7346/hurcfeb25c2qt.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[DSteckler]

Lots of short covering there.

[spikefader]

HURC: the pattern at the 'c' completion seems to be on the 3 min:

http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/1913/hurcpattern8qi.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[alice4321us]

ESRX/VRSN looks to be a short candidate. Spike/Runner any charts, entry points you fellas can suggest.

[spikefader]

ESRX/VRSN looks to be a short candidate. Spike/Runner any charts, entry points you fellas can suggest.I've done the chart from a 'c' perspective since this is the 'c' spotting thread you've posted in.

I'd be looking to short the top of 'b' (anticipation entry) if you are so sure it's a short and you're looking for the pink 'c' to fail.......or alternatively wait for the 'c' to fail, and look for your good r/r entry then. Or alternatively, you could wait for that big volume gap up recently to fail....and once that gap support fails, take the short with stop over the gap resistance.

http://img426.imageshack.us/img426/6093/vrsnfeb288me.gif (http://imageshack.us)

On the 3 year daily chart I see there's that big descending triangle formation, that broke down last July and August. And now the 24.50 area is clear resistance. You could short the closing price today, but with stop over the recent high that makes the risk 5.66%. Target price for the triangle is 13.00 or so, which is 47% profit. So your r/r is 8.29, which is pretty good. Or alternatively, look to short into any strength tomorrow; perhaps R1 or R2, or on a failure down, and pull back up to the intraday pivot.

There's a few options for ya....but I'm not so sure I'd be looking short for it myself. At least while price is over the 23.12 gap support.

Good luck!

[Runner]

I think ORCL is positioning to make a move. It is a thick stock and so you won’t get 20% returns in 20 days but I’ll keep an eye on it.
http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/3240/orcl9nt.png (http://imageshack.us)
ORCL is currently sitting near upper channel and may try to poke out and run…I’m Bull back to lower channel….

[Rob]

Spike,

If point C doesn't need to be below point A, we may have one here ...

http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/7240/exfo6sj.png (http://imageshack.us/)

Whaddya think?

[spikefader]

Spike,

If point C doesn't need to be below point A, we may have one here ...

http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/7240/exfo6sj.png (http://imageshack.us/)
Whaddya think?Never thought about doin' it with line value only....neato!

But my concern would be the weekly here;

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/6862/exfomar242xn.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

So I dunno....

Definately a stock to watch; clearly bullish and boomin'! :D

Thnx.

[DSteckler]

OCPI in the same group is also moving nicely today.

[Runner]

http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/7234/tlab6ws.png (http://imageshack.us)
Follow-up
http://img433.imageshack.us/img433/9954/tlab0fl.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Spike, was just looking over some charts from the Nasdaq 100. Here is a monthly on WYNN.
http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/7992/wynn3wv.png (http://imageshack.us)

Follow up

http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/3549/wynn1mg.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Follow-up
http://img433.imageshack.us/img433/9954/tlab0fl.png (http://imageshack.us)what the tlabbb

[Runner]

Price objectives met on all from page 2 of this thread…..

[spikefader]

EXFO lovers. (a few posts back shows the 12345).

Check out the weekly chart today if you get a chance. It's done the 'C' now and would be a very nice long to stalk!