Jim's cycle trades

[Jim Smith]

starting to figure out how to navigate this site.....so, I'll just start a new thread and keep everything here....I am poluted in oil stocks like XOM, CVX, APA and HAL....I expect the dollar to get slammed and oil to rally....Everyone will be looking at Iran, the proverbial man behind the current, but I see this oil situation is an anti dollar play....ORCT is my top tech play for the next six weeks....I am watching for a correction in the markets into option expiration....after that, I'll be looking to play semiconductors again with a target on the SMH at $45.

Since I am new here, a little discussion about myself and strategy:
* I look for repeating year over year patterns supported by current technical indicators. That's way oversimplified however.
* My holding period often doesn't go beyond a few days. But sometimes, I'll try for longer periods. Patience is one of my weak areas.
* I will take positions on in size usually no less than 1000 shares.
* I am not afraid to concentrate my portfolio either in one position or sector.
* I was one of the early day traders in the country. I had to suffer an extensive IRS inquiry due to my prolific trading numbers. They thought I was a drug dealer laundering money.
* I own commerical realestate that was featured in the Wall Street Journal back in 1987 and I once wrote a good size letter to James Cramer at Realmoney.com, which he posted on the site, as I ripped him a new one and he wanted to respond. I don't like Cramer.

[Karel]

Hi Jim, and welcome! Yes, putting all your cycle trades in one thread definitely is a good idea! Thank you!

Regards,

Karel

[Jim Smith]

MEE is on my watch list.....broke the downtrend a few days ago on decent volume....could get back to old highs quickly, IMO....no position yet.

[Lyehopper]

Hey Jim! We'll get along just fine, I don't like Cramer either. I watched him last night.... It was imbarassing. He has become a complete idiot, throwing chairs around and screaming.... I told my wife (who likes to watch the food network) that he's trying to be the "Emeril Lagasse" of the financial shows. Now he has a live studio audience and guests, next he'll have a freakin band..... SHEEEESH!!!!.... What ever happened to Louis Rukeyser?

[Jim Smith]

XOM is my biggest position....I believe this stock will make $77 and it won't take long....I think this Iran situation is about to take off.....I now believe Goldman's super spike call is not far off.

[Jim Smith]

Today was a nice sucker punch to the face.....It wouldn't have been so bad if I hadn't gotten greedy by playing the long side of OXY, ouch.....

[IIC]

Welcome Jim...here's hoping I can qualify for an IRS inquiry soon ;)...Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

XOM is my biggest position....I believe this stock will make $77 and it won't take long....I think this Iran situation is about to take off.....I now believe Goldman's super spike call is not far off.

Jim,
I actually like your reasoning and the play on XOM. I was looking at the Feb. 62.50 and 65 calls and the Aprill 62.50 and 65 calls. What is your opinion on those options in regard to your feelings on XOM in general as per your post.

[New-born baby]

* I own commerical realestate that was featured in the Wall Street Journal back in 1987 and I once wrote a good size letter to James Cramer at Realmoney.com, which he posted on the site, as I ripped him a new one and he wanted to respond. I don't like Cramer.
ANYBODY that doesn't like Jimmy Eugene Cramer is a friend of ours . . .
welcome!

[New-born baby]

MEE is on my watch list.....broke the downtrend a few days ago on decent volume....could get back to old highs quickly, IMO....no position yet.

Just fresh off of a double bottom--why wouldn't it take off? :D Nice call.

[dmk112]

Just fresh off of a double bottom--why wouldn't it take off? :D Nice call.

Would of loved to be in around 38... Looks like a 1-2-3 Reversal.

[DSteckler]

<< Looks like a 1-2-3 Reversal. >>

Not a Cooper 1-2-3-4. RS rank = 27, just a liiiitle short of 95 <g>.

[Jim Smith]

TRI is trading above the 100 day sma on decent volume.

[Jim Smith]

FLSH bounced off the 30 day ema which has provided support in the past.

[DSteckler]

Got stopped out of FLSH last week.

[Jim Smith]

the TLT looks like it's trying to racquire the 200 day ma...I think long rates are headed lower....Housing stocks may also get back in gear.

[Jim Smith]

MBT up against the downtrend line on the daily....good volume.

[DSteckler]

<< I think long rates are headed lower....Housing stocks may also get back in gear. >>

So do I, Smitty. I've been long Rydex US Gov't Bonds (RYGBX) for about a week now and housing stocks for a few months. Long NVR @ 682.50.

[Jim Smith]

NGPS....broke a downtrend on the weekly.....triangle pattern is wide....could have tremendous upside.

[DSteckler]

NGPS also made a stochastic pop today.

[Jim Smith]

ODSY....recent pullback contained at the 200 week moving average.....took a position long.

[Jim Smith]

I still fear a run in crude oil going into March due to Iran....I like the major integrated oils here because, they have the oil. They may decline a bit Tuesday if nothing happens over the weekend....I'll use any weakness to increase positions.

[Jim Smith]

Oil remains the place to be IMO,,,,,also, NGPS is soaring and it's broken out of a huge triangle pattern....also long ORCT and SYNA.....

[Jim Smith]

anyone playing XOM options should focus on the April series, IMO

[Jim Smith]

NGPS acting extremely well....my guess is that the hedge funds see this massive triangle breakout and are adding.....also, FRK is at the bottom of a large symmetrical triangle nicely visible on the weekly chart....if FRK breaks here, I believe it will ultimately fall to $27.....

[Jim Smith]

So, Bin Laden is alive or speaks from the grave? Whatever the case, I think the terrorists are about to try to use our markets to pick up a little pocket money...In August before the 9/11 attacks, I remarked on the EI board I saw serious put option buying in many stocks....No one wanted to keep that discussion alive then, but I bought AA puts on a hunch something big was coming....And it did....I think they're going to try and ramp the oil stocks like they did last February either with rhetoric or overt action.

[Jim Smith]

AES...wow, do I like this triangle....my target is $23, soon.

[Jim Smith]

FRK just broke the symmetrical triangle.....there's 10 down from here.

[Jim Smith]

JNJ long....right here on the 50 day I am betting that over the weekend JNJ says BSX, good luck with GDT.....I believe the shares will rally to $65 in early Feb.

[Jim Smith]

Still love the oil stocks....MBT is up against a downtrend line so it bears watching for a breakout.....FLSH still has upside, IMO......But energy is what I am keying on....I believe the Dow is going back to 11000 in February.

[Jim Smith]

Watching for an opportunity to get back into the semi group either the SMH or maybe something specific like FLSH or AMD.

[Jim Smith]

The word I get from JNJ is that JNJ owns some key patents on GDT products so even if they lose to BSX, they'll tie this up in litigation

[Jim Smith]

I really like the JNJ Mar 60 calls here.

[Jim Smith]

YRCW...took a long position....moving above the 200 day ma....

[Jim Smith]

I believe we're going back to 11000, this time a bit higher...Say 11100.....Love material stocks and energy.....watching JNJ for a long play as they did the expected and backed away from GDT....FLSH had good numbers....N, CLF, BHP are watch list buys

[Jim Smith]

GMR....looking to take a new position here on the long side....I realize my posts don't generate a lot of excitement.....could be because I don't provide charts.....never learned how and the learning curve is steep for me. but as the JNJ call goes, sometimes I get great information

[hilss]

I've been reading your input Jim... keep them posts coming... I don't post often, but I read a lot... I'm still learning...

[New-born baby]

GMR....looking to take a new position here on the long side....I realize my posts don't generate a lot of excitement.....could be because I don't provide charts.....never learned how and the learning curve is steep for me. but as the JNJ call goes, sometimes I get great information

Jim,
You are dead wrong if you think your posts don't generate a "lot of excitement." I am reading each one with interest. I was considering posting a note about how glad I am that you, Robb, and Dave are here at the MM site. I am loving it. I read your JNJ post, almost entered the stock yesterday, and this morning she's up over $60 already. I agree: she's going to make a move.

GMR: have followed this one in the past. Tanker Company. Her sister co. FRO is moving like crazy. I was waiting/hoping for a pullback all the way to $35 on FRO, but $37.18 was the low, and I did not enter the stock. Now she's gone.

If you want more excitement over here, besides just posting "I like GMR" or some company, give us a little more of why you like it. And if you want, I'll post a chart here and there (if you don't want, I won't :D).
Thanks!

[Jim Smith]

CHK...this stock is starting to look like a massive bear flag on the weekly chart....It's on support right now....if it breaks, this could fall all the way to $18.....they've got tons of leverage from recent acquisitions.....all you need to see is that the CEO has sold even 1 share, and this stock might take a dump.....he's been buying like a wild man and owns something like 5% of the company.

[Jim Smith]

shorted CHK....it's broken the trendline.....could get seriously ugly

[Jim Smith]

APA.....another chart with a look of a bear flag....the weekly shows a cleaner picture.....another couple points down to support, then $52?

[Jim Smith]

I don't know, but APA is starting to remind me of the nasdaq crash beginning from the top of March 2000....it's way early yet, but in a year, this stock might be much lower.

[Jim Smith]

bought APA Jan 2007 75 strike puts....looks like a hedge fund did too as I only bought 10 contracts.....I am betting that this chart is a repeat of the Nasdaq comp chart of March 2000 forward.

[Jim Smith]

no wonder I couldn't win with these oil plays, I was way on the wrong side....I think nat gas can make $6 this summer....look where CHK and APA were when nat gas was $6 in late 2004....ain't pretty.....now it might be time to go long chemicals that were crushed when nat gas was high....maybe Dow or LYO....also, if gasoline is coming down, discretionary spending rises.....thinking casinos and good specialty retailers like AEOS or ANF.

[skiracer]

no wonder I couldn't win with these oil plays, I was way on the wrong side....I think nat gas can make $6 this summer....look where CHK and APA were when nat gas was $6 in late 2004....ain't pretty.....now it might be time to go long chemicals that were crushed when nat gas was high....maybe Dow or LYO....also, if gasoline is coming down, discretionary spending rises.....thinking casinos and good specialty retailers like AEOS or ANF.

Jim,
I like your logic on areas that were beaten down when others were rising and visa versa. I look for those signals myself. I don't know where you live but here at the NJ shore the gas prices were down under $1.80 three or four weeks ago and now have begun to go back up substantially. I paid $2.49 a gallon this morning. That's a pretty big jump in a couple of weeks. One natural gas play I like is NJR. It's a smaller company that I have been accumulating for the past 30 years in a DRIP account. Own a considerable amount of it and every couple of years it splits around $47/48 area an I fill up and then it goes
back up to $48/49 again over the next couple of years and splits again. Been doing this reqularly for quite some time now. Company is the largest property owner in NJ and really the only game in town for natural gas in NJ.

[New-born baby]

no wonder I couldn't win with these oil plays, I was way on the wrong side....I think nat gas can make $6 this summer....look where CHK and APA were when nat gas was $6 in late 2004....ain't pretty.....now it might be time to go long chemicals that were crushed when nat gas was high....maybe Dow or LYO....also, if gasoline is coming down, discretionary spending rises.....thinking casinos and good specialty retailers like AEOS or ANF.

Don't forget Walmart :D LOL

[Jim Smith]

Major bear flag breakdown in APA....haven't seen anything like this since nasdaq comp in Sept of 2000.....

[Jim Smith]

As I mentioned, one group to watch is the casino stocks......WYNN is close to a major breakout of the November high....could make $70 fast.

[Jim Smith]

GS breakout....my target is $145...long

[Jim Smith]

CY is in a breakout....I believe this can make $24.

[Jim Smith]

PFE breaking a 2 year downtrend today

[Jim Smith]

My Happy Valentine>>>> SPX to 1314 on V-day

[Jim Smith]

Oil is the play imo....And I am not just saying that cuz they're up this morning....long XOM and CHK here....XOM had blowout earnings and CHK had a favorable story in Barron's this week.....According to my work, the february up cycle is about to repeat...We're going to get help from Opec which meets 1/31/06.....

[Jim Smith]

WYNN.....H/S breakout....target is $82

[Jim Smith]

MGM....I believe this will close a chart gap at $42.50 in a week....close to breaking 4 month downtrend

[Jim Smith]

NKE looks like a broadening top to me

[Jim Smith]

ORCT....attempting breakout of what looks like larget H/S continuation pattern....

[Jim Smith]

MEE....coal stocks will rally with nat gas, imo.......MEE is in a 5 point box right now...I expect this to be resolved to the upside taking MEE to $47.50 by the end of the month...I am playing this one with Mar 40 calls.

[Jim Smith]

over 100% invested in oil and gas stocks coming into today....I am huge and I am eating all the finest meats and cheeses on this day.....LOL

[DSteckler]

Smitty, you eat all that meat and cheese and you'll be swimming in oil and gas by the end of the day! <VBG>

[DSteckler]

MEE looks nice, Smitty. Good pick-up.

[Jim Smith]

NKE shorted.....using in the money options.

[Jim Smith]

WLL...long....ascending triangle....I believe this will be $52+ by the end of FEb.....got a good mention in Barron's for a value play....break up value said to be $58 per share with no exposure to dangerous territories....

[Jim Smith]

CRZO recently broke out of a symmetrical triangle 10 points wide....lots of potential upside here.

[Jim Smith]

WYNN....long with options....

[Jim Smith]

Brown shoe revolt.....long TBL, short NKE

[Jim Smith]

LAB.....broke a 4 year downtrend.

[DSteckler]

Yellow, chocolate, or black? <g>

[Jim Smith]

staying the course with energy through the month of February....CHK is my largest holding and I think there's a chance it could rally to its convertible conversion price of $44 near term....also, WLL is another major holding.....jumping on coal with MEE and JRCC....

[Jim Smith]

USNA long....back above the 50 day ma......

[Jim Smith]

PFE....took a long position looking for $30

[Jim Smith]

HET long....as I mentioned here not long ago, gaming stocks would rock...WYNN is already rocking.

[Jim Smith]

TRC long...bull flag breakout....$50 target

[Jim Smith]

gonna rename my thread "Jim's dead thread".......LAB up 9% over night trade....TRC caught the bull flag.......I am not gonna say I made 15% on X number of trades.....I am gonna say what my position is......PFE...6600 shares at $26.....my end of month target is $30.30......I sold 9700 shares of CHK today.....I left money on that table....
I can't cut and paste charts, I barely have time to post....I post what I see and I base my targets on what happened this time last year....I make sure that current technicals support the position....

[mrmarket]

What's the matter Jim? Feel like wood? I read your stuff.

[sisterwin2]

I read it also

[RL]

Jim I'm on your link everyday. Was getting ready to e-mail and ask If you could give your hold time on your choices.I'm just not good enough to figure how long I should hold, because I'm on Ameritrade and It Is IRA money can not day trade unless I use margin I do not want to do that.

[Jim Smith]

COMS....just below the 200 week moving average and looking to break through....Add that Cramer gave this a sell, sell, sell and you have the making of something special on the long side.....Fred Hickey likes this stock and I respect that guy more than I respect the Brioni suits that Cramer wears......Hickey was the one buying AMD in the teens.

[Jim Smith]

EW....the stock appears to be putting in a h/s bottoming pattern....it's against the neckline now...it moved above the 200 day ma yesterday....target is $46.85

[DSteckler]

Nice move on EW yesterday.

[Jim Smith]

COMS acquires majority stake of Huawei.....now that company's numbers fall to COMS bottom line.....above the 200 week ma now....now is the time to jump on, IMO.

[Jim Smith]

NCR....sold a test lot this morning and the MM stepped in front of the NYSE bid by a half penny to grab my shares....that told me this stock is headed higher....long.

[Jim Smith]

TRC...moving above the pivot....

[Jim Smith]

PAL....palladium is cheap relative to platinum

[Jim Smith]

EXM.....looking to break a downtrend....positive divergence in relative strength...long

[DSteckler]

What about the volume, Jim?

[Jim Smith]

looked at the uptrending weekly channel on the SPX....we failed to follow through on on Wednesday's action and got turned away at the top rail.....I suspect this means we'll travel down to the bottom rail of the channel over the next 2+ months......I am in cash now. Looking to get long again around SPX 1210.

[Jim Smith]

PFE....morgan stanley sees what I am seeing I guess and put a $30 target on PFE.....ALso, I believe GOOG is a short to 360

[Jim Smith]

GOOG short....IMO, this stock is going down to its chart gap around $332 over the next couple months

[Jim Smith]

GOOG....100 day ma is breached.....200 day ma is down around the chart gap, how convenient.....staying short a paltry 300 shares.

[Jim Smith]

TBL...these boots are made for walking....hanging above the 200 day ma....

[Jim Smith]

MRK....don't look now, but this stock is acting rock solid....dare I say $42.50 over the next few months?

[Shadow]

MRK....don't look now, but this stock is acting rock solid....dare I say $42.50 over the next few months?

Be careful on this one.

They are starting the 3rd trial.

Also, union negotiations are just starting. First wave is
ugly; which is usually the case. Contract expires in
mid May. Watch carefully; you can make some $ on
this one and it can also be a pit viper.

Good luck
Shadow

[Jim Smith]

CHK being kept above the trendline.....I believe there's an end of month ramp job coming which will take CHK to $41.

[Jim Smith]

DD....a lot of insiders are coming into a ton of stock here.....I am on the look out for a Feb/March ramp job

[Jim Smith]

on the lookout for some classic manipulation here on DD.....wow, a lot of guys got stock two days ago at $39.30....now watch the market makers work this baby up towards $44 so these guys can unload.......playing the March 37.50 calls.

[Jim Smith]

long the oil sector...CHK, XLE, XOM....

[Jim Smith]

DD...here comes the ramp job to let all those execs out who got grants at $39.30....also, PFE goes ex div tomorrow.....

[Jim Smith]

sometimes listening to CNBC pays off.....I heard the chic say that there was huge speculative long interests in oil, equal to last September.....I sold CHK.

[Jim Smith]

this is a real life trading experience: Today, I had 3000 shares of PFE at $25.18 plus 1000 shares of DD and 20 DD call options. At around 11.20 am the wife calls from the mall and says you wanna have lunch? And me, trying to be a devoted husband, say sure. Actually I felt my PFE was on auto pilot and the time away might do me good....So, while eating lunch, my PFE goes intraday parabolic and tops out at 12 noon and instead of cashing out + $1700, I close out the day down $575....Michael Douglas had it right in "wall Street" , lunch is for wimps....There will be no more lunches. IMO, if you don't find yourself experiencing similar things from time to time, you're not trading, you're investing.

[ParkTwain]

Investing is what a trader without stops (i.e., a poor trader) is doing, as you say you demonstrated today. :) But really, I would say you should broaden your definition of trading by a good measure. $$MM$$ is a trend-following, fundamentals-oriented trader, but he doesn't use a stop because he is actually performing an extended experiment. And his trading experiment has been >80% successful, which is a remarkable win rate anywhere along the "trading" spectrum. He could improve his annual rate of return by using both price and time stops, but those are intentionally not a part of his chosen experiment.

I would say that "investing" is the set of actions taken to gain a return based on an analysis of the earnings potential (and therefore the "value") of the asset purchased. Trading (what I call "speculation" in the most general sense) is the set of actions taken to gain a return based on anticipation of a change in price of the asset purchased.

[Jim Smith]

I got your POT right here.....Potash that is....trading above the 200 day ma like a champ and Nat gas is under pressure....NG is a chief input in the fertilizer biz....I believe the next 10 points on POT is up to $105.

[Jim Smith]

POT up nearly 3 points.....PFE up 5% and you get the dividend.....giving you pearls here.....also mentioned shorting GOOG at 398 the day of the AMZN earnings....anybody out there?

[Jim Smith]

shorted the IWM...I think small caps can slide 10% going into April

[Jim Smith]

This is a dead thread......when a thread discussing the wearing attire of Ernie gets more play, I give up......I can't help you folks.....

[Websman]

This is a dead thread......when a thread discussing the wearing attire of Ernie gets more play, I give up......I can't help you folks.....

Come on dude...we just like to have a little fun while we're trading. :)

[DSteckler]

<< I think small caps can slide 10% going into April >>

The relative performance of the IWM had lagged the SP500 from August through mid-November but it turned up around November 22 and since then the IWM has been on a tear. Until it's relative performance rising trend line is broken to the downside, money flow still favors the small fry.

[skiracer]

this is a real life trading experience: Today, I had 3000 shares of PFE at $25.18 plus 1000 shares of DD and 20 DD call options. At around 11.20 am the wife calls from the mall and says you wanna have lunch? And me, trying to be a devoted husband, say sure. Actually I felt my PFE was on auto pilot and the time away might do me good....So, while eating lunch, my PFE goes intraday parabolic and tops out at 12 noon and instead of cashing out + $1700, I close out the day down $575....Michael Douglas had it right in "wall Street" , lunch is for wimps....There will be no more lunches. IMO, if you don't find yourself experiencing similar things from time to time, you're not trading, you're investing.

Jim,
I can relate to what you experienced today with your wife. I leave the house pretty early an usually get home after 6 pm most days. Then I'm in front of the computer doing my thing with the stocks and the two businesses we're running so my wife an I see each other but don't spend that much quality time together during the week days. Sometimes she'll call me an ask to meet her for lunch an I always try to meet her even when I have to rearrange everything to do so. It's love ya know an I hate that guilt trip when I have to say no. But it seems that everytime I make the concession to meet her when I should be tending to business something goes wrong or a problem crops up especially when I'm stalking a stock for entry or exit without a buy order or stop loss in place. It never fails. What would I do without her though?
Jim, I scan everyone of your posts plus everyone elses. I don't know what you're looking for but give it some time here. You can't expect everyone to follow and respond to everything that you post. Most of the people posting here are not traders like yourself where they are making moves everyday or as many as you apparently are. Maybe you have to give them alittle more of an explanation of your setups or the reasoning behind them.

[RL]

Jim I had gone to the store one day for 6 pack and get gas.Came home sat down to the pc and was out $385. It sure sucks

[RL]

Just put your stock picks on one of my dart boards, don't leave me know.

[Jim Smith]

TBL....as I mentioned here days ago, these boots are made for walking.....TBL is up 7+%.....

[RL]

Jim am I too late to get In or should I wait for a little pull back?

[Jim Smith]

TBL...I would wait.....

LAB....ding ding ding....another winner brought to you here days ago....I said it broke a 4 year downtrend.

[Jim Smith]

CHK....major bear flag on weekly chart ....easily visible....downside target is $19....short with impunity.

[RL]

Thanks for your quick reply plan on following your picks however I'm not on margin so must by to hold at least 3 days

[Jim Smith]

LAB....smacked down by 200 week moving average....to me, the 200 week is the mason dixon line seperating true bull from true bear

[Jim Smith]

APA...another major bear flag in the making.....under $70 gets you $52.

[Jim Smith]

Chemicals win when energy loses....DD mentioned here using March call options.....on it's way to $44.....insiders got major grants at $39.30 just in time for the market makers to mark it up so they can bail out.

[Jim Smith]

this inverted yield curve will weigh on investors minds....

GOOG...set your buy orders at $320 as that chart gap gets filled.....then ride it up to $400.

[Websman]

Great stuff Jim. Thanks!

[RL]

Jim any take on BFT or LTM

[Jim Smith]

Jim's number one rule of trading:

When a stock doesn't do what you expect, and more importantly, WHEN you expect it, SELL.

[Jim Smith]

LTM>> May go sideways again for a spell before moving up again....Looks bullish to me

BFT>> Near peak from August of 2003. Moved off the 200 week ma on solid volume.
short term overbought....Worth holding, I won't add unless the summer 2003
peak is taken out.

[Jim Smith]

a couple defensive picks for a market that might get a little defensive for you long only players: PG and CLX.

[RL]

Thanks Jim much appreciated

[Jim Smith]

APA and CHK falling like bricks out a window.....These charts remind me of the nasdaq in September 2000 right before the crash.

[Jim Smith]

NTES....worth watching for a long trade....showing decent relative strength suddenly....the 10 day ma is providing some support.

[Jim Smith]

chemical stocks trying to hang on and worth watching for a long side play.......PFE will get pinned on the 25 strike.....I tried shorting PFE yesterday smelling the sell a division rat that caused the ramp .....

[Jim Smith]

AAPL....way too many puts front month....this is way oversold on stochastics....I bet, next week this gets a good pop.

[DSteckler]

NTES is trading between the 38.2% retracement level and the 50% retracement level, using the 2005 high and the 2006 low as endpoints. It needs to clear the 50% level, around 75.

[Jim Smith]

IWM going down .....IMO, this group will underperform the SPX and Dow.....but, they're all going down

[Jim Smith]

AAPL...taking a shot long....way oversold, way too many puts with expiration next week....my bet is a rally, maybe all the way to the 50 day moving average.....

[Jim Smith]

DIA....long dated puts....the weekly chart is showing some really scary symmetry....I think it's time to break out the Dow 10,000 hats again, they might just come back into vogue....bought the June 112 dia puts.

[Jim Smith]

Warning, warning danger Will robinson.....The weekly Dow chart is showing a lot of symmetry and I am concerned that we may be setting up a water fall decline into April for the Dow jones if the mirror image symmetry persists....my bet is that it does.

[Jim Smith]

AAPL is maybe my favorite bounce play,,,,,mucho front month puts outstanding....stochastics big time oversold and turning up.....

[Lyehopper]

Jimbo.... keep an eye on PARL dude. it's runnin.

[Jim Smith]

AAPL....working on a hammer

[New-born baby]

Warning, warning danger Will robinson.....The weekly Dow chart is showing a lot of symmetry and I am concerned that we may be setting up a water fall decline into April for the Dow jones if the mirror image symmetry persists....my bet is that it does.

PROTECT ME, WILL ROBINSON! AAAAAAHHHAAAAAAA!!!
http://img314.imageshack.us/img314/1725/chart15th.gif (http://imageshack.us)

I got out of my AAPL short when she started acting too bullish!

[Jim Smith]

DD...this is classic manipulation, imo.....insiders got free stock and the MMs are going to work it higher so insiders get out.....this one is fairly easy

[Jim Smith]

AAPL....what a pearl brought to you by Jim's cycle trades.....

[spikefader]

AAPL...taking a shot long....way oversold, way too many puts with expiration next week....my bet is a rally, maybe all the way to the 50 day moving average.....Nice entry that one, during the inverted head formation....no more than sub 1% pain on your entry based off the post time. Congrats dude. You're HUUUUUUGE! :D

[spikefader]

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/6782/pearl0mo.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[SledDawg]

Nice call on AAPL, Jim. In just after you at 64.15, out at 67.56, in at 67 :) News on PLAY integrating wireless into DMP chipset helped...

Thank you!

[Jim Smith]

potential AAPL target is 0.618 x 23.50 range = 14.52 + 62.9 = $77.42....I will say that I think this is the maximum possible move near term, imo....and there's plenty of resistance points between here and there....But, CNBC has the AAPL hype machine ready to roll.....

[DSteckler]

<< Nice entry that one, during the inverted head formation >>

What inverted head formation? Are you looking at an intraday chart?

[Jim Smith]

Using DD as my tell on the market.....IMO, this market isn't ready to tank until DD reaches $44....This stock missed earnings yet works higher.....Some will say cheap oil means better earnings for DD...maybe....but, I say let's manipulate this higher so some fat cats can get out....When DD reaches $44, you better be looking for the market exits....IWM underperforms the Dow....whoa, no surprise here....

[spikefader]

<< Nice entry that one, during the inverted head formation >>

What inverted head formation? Are you looking at an intraday chart?http://img456.imageshack.us/img456/9448/aaplintra24gl.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Jim Smith]

TM....my favorite Jewish guy, Doug Kass, says he's even worried about TM because of the consumer.....whoa nelly, Doug nailed this one, imo....TM is just begging to be shorted...

[DSteckler]

http://img456.imageshack.us/img456/9448/aaplintra24gl.gif (http://imageshack.us)

That's what I thought. I saw the same chart but wanted to make sure I was on the same page as you guys.

[New-born baby]

TM....my favorite Jewish guy, Doug Kass, says he's even worried about TM because of the consumer.....whoa nelly, Doug nailed this one, imo....TM is just begging to be shorted...

Looking at the daily and weekly, I would short the first charge up to $104 that TM makes--if it gets that high again. Next support is $100.

[skiracer]

I was looking at the daily. What a sloppy chart. I see alot of red bars in the volume. I'm surprised it's held up this long. It does look to be begging to be shorted.

[gerihearne]

potential AAPL target is 0.618 x 23.50 range = 14.52 + 62.9 = $77.42....I will say that I think this is the maximum possible move near term, imo....and there's plenty of resistance points between here and there....But, CNBC has the AAPL hype machine ready to roll.....

Jim, can you share a few of your good trades this week? Any bad?
And does AAPL look good for the week ahead?
There's a lot of action on this thread ...
________
TX300 (http://www.cyclechaos.com/wiki/Aprilia_TX300)

[Jim Smith]

Let me preface this by saying patience is NOT my strong suit. I am in the 12 step patience program and I can't get past step one.

Best trades: long PFE, didn't hold to catch the 5%+ move the very next day! Short the IWM but I was one day too early and got stopped out....DD long, still in this one.
I didn't make money this week because of a lack of patience, nothing else.
AAPL looks good to me as I interpret Friday as a hammer bottom...Nice volume on a day where it makes a new low for the move but finishes well into the prior day's bar.
Long AAPL, DD and DIA puts.

[spikefader]

Let me preface this by saying patience is NOT my strong suit. I am in the 12 step patience program and I can't get past step one.

Best trades: long PFE, didn't hold to catch the 5%+ move the very next day! Short the IWM but I was one day too early and got stopped out....DD long, still in this one.
I didn't make money this week because of a lack of patience, nothing else.
AAPL looks good to me as I interpret Friday as a hammer bottom...Nice volume on a day where it makes a new low for the move but finishes well into the prior day's bar.
Long AAPL, DD and DIA puts.Good for you. You're able to declare openly that your patience needs work. You probably won't want to do this cuz of the size you trade, but if you posted all your entries real-time or soon thereafter, attaching your r/r to the trade and where your hard exit and target is, your patience would improve. Not only that, but other forum members would be seeing what you're seeing and expecting out of the trade and maybe hitch a ride if they like it for themselves. Guarantee it would help discipline and patience. There's just something about accountability in front of peers that will drive you to focus.

[Jim Smith]

IWM....back in the old upward channel, but near the top....I am looking for a 10% correction into late April

[Jim Smith]

D...shorted....here's another bear flag pattern....target is $63...

AAPL....out....Looks like long plays are quick trades while short plays are turning into investments.

[spikefader]

AAPL....out....Looks like long plays are quick trades while short plays are turning into investments.64.20 may be worthwhile long.....it's the neckline support from Friday's intraday inverted SHS pattern. Under lod is -2% from that point. Pretty tempting play there.

[Jim Smith]

VPHM....shorted shares....under the trendline....there's a chart gap all the way below $12.

[Jim Smith]

AAPL...long on the take out of yesterday's high

still short CHK, APA and VPHM plus short IWM.

[Jim Smith]

The Dow Jones is NOT topped out till Dupont makes $44....put that in your day planner.....

[spikefader]

The Dow Jones is NOT topped out till Dupont makes $44....put that in your day planner.....How do ya figure? DD has it's moments of insanity to DOW movement......

http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/5640/dd4mq.jpg

[Jim Smith]

I think they're porking everybody in this market....here comes are bull market top coming to a market near you in Q1....That's SPX 1315 and Dow Jones 11375

[Jim Smith]

Spike, my methodology involves repeating last year's moves....DD, take the percentage close this day last year to the early march 2005 top.....Apply that % move to today's close....I bet it comes out to $44.....I love it when it comes together like that.

[spikefader]

Interesting theory... measured moves and historical patterns are certainly valid things in my book. But then again, so are significant bearish pattern failures like the DOW is doing though....

[Jim Smith]

Spike....

VPHM, calculate the % change from this day in 2005 to May 1 of 2005....It's like a 43% decline and apply that % decline to what I think will be the closing price of 19.50....look at a one year daily chart and tell me what you see.....Hint, chart gap at $11.15

[Jim Smith]

MRK still looks good.....my target remains $42.50....It may pull back a bit to the $35 strike.

[Jim Smith]

IP....International Paper seems to have made a spike bottom....At least it looks more like a spike on the weekly chart....If it breaks out of the pivot, it has a long ways to go >>>> $42.60

[New-born baby]

IP....International Paper seems to have made a spike bottom....At least it looks more like a spike on the weekly chart....If it breaks out of the pivot, it has a long ways to go >>>> $42.60

Here's the daily. Yesterday it broke out of a minor double bottom.
http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/7863/chart16xi.gif

[Jim Smith]

EBAY....shorted at the broken uptrend test evident on the weekly chart.

[Jim Smith]

closed EBAY short when it moved above the resistance line.....will watch for now.

[Jim Smith]

MRK....long....

EBAY....I think my lines were a little off on that weekly chart.....watching

IGT....shorted shares.

[Jim Smith]

DD....still looking at this stock for market cues....DD is going to $44.

[Jim Smith]

NUE....close to b/o....long

[Jim Smith]

NUE...I think can make $86 near term

[Jim Smith]

APPX....up on an earning report.....recently bounced off the 200 week ma....I think this can make $40 in two months.

[Jim Smith]

BRCM....put on a short here.....I think this can do a slow burn till it closes a chart gap around 68/69

[Jim Smith]

GM....it could just be me but this stock looks like a head and shoulders bottom shaping up.

[New-born baby]

GM....it could just be me but this stock looks like a head and shoulders bottom shaping up.

GM has a head and shoulders pattern for sure. And the target is marked on the chart below. 20% reward, for a small risk.
http://img367.imageshack.us/img367/9629/chart11op.gif

[Jim Smith]

long GM....it's been years since i've owned this one

[New-born baby]

long GM....it's been years since i've owned this one

I bought it after the first head and shoulders, and sold just before the ex-date because I knew she would retrace. I think it is a good choice. The risk/reward ratio is 5:1 IF you put a stop at the neck of $21.30.

[Jim Smith]

I am ready for my labotomy cuz PSYS looks just too sweet.

[spikefader]

Spike....

VPHM, calculate the % change from this day in 2005 to May 1 of 2005....It's like a 43% decline and apply that % decline to what I think will be the closing price of 19.50....look at a one year daily chart and tell me what you see.....Hint, chart gap at $11.15I'm not sure I follow. Is your logic because there is previous decline of 43% somewhere in price history that it's reasonable to assume the identical % decline will occur at some point in the future? If so, what's the trigger?

[Jim Smith]

yes spike that's exactly right....VPHM tested the broken trendline yesterday at $20.50, that's the stop loss.

[spikefader]

yes spike that's exactly right....VPHM tested the broken trendline yesterday at $20.50, that's the stop loss.Gotcha. Looks like you're strict with downside risk while targeting long; a great thing to do. And if it works dude what more does one need :D Does the pattern have to match or something for you to seriously consider it, or is it fib timebased or sumfin?

[Jim Smith]

The pattern has to match in terms of TIME.....time is the most important thing to me.

[Jim Smith]

When the Dow jones tries to snuggle up against it's old highs....It's going to be the drug stocks in the group that will do the heavy lifting, IMO...

JNJ....long looking for $63

[Jim Smith]

Wild Oats (OATS) will intersect WFMI at what price?

[Jim Smith]

NVAX....breaking out of a symmetrical triangle.....also bouncing off the 200 week moving average.

[DSteckler]

NVAX looks nice, Smitty.

[Jim Smith]

PWAV....long....I've got a feeling they're getting a ton of business from India and China

[Jim Smith]

NTES...long

[Jim Smith]

liking the drug stocks.....Long MRK, JNJ and TEVA

SHorting chip stocks and currently short BRCM

[Jim Smith]

MRK wins federal Vioxx trial......I think a lot of smart money was bet on MRK Friday.....I expect MRK to make the move to $40 then $42.50, the 200 week moving average....Other drug stocks may move up in sympathy....long JNJ, MRK and TEVA.

[mrmarket]

I took 80 MG of Zocor for 2 years. It fried my brain and ruined my back...almost made me a cripple.

[DSteckler]

Ernie, stop eating so much meats and cheeses and you won't need Zocor!

[Jim Smith]

telephone equipment redux.....I am reading this book entitled "confessions of a wall street analyst". Basically it talks about analysts becoming rock stars as wall street firms needed them to secure banking relationships with foreign telecom companies seeking to go public. We saw what happened when a slew of telecoms found themselves with $$$ looking to spend: CSCO, TLAB etal soared....Now we have telecoms stengthening again, I don't know why....But I am playing the equipment plays ie PWAV on a hunch India and CHina are spending big time.

[Lyehopper]

Won't you give us a pick in the POTW this week Jim?.... Long or Short.... We'd love to have you play.

[Jim Smith]

Dow Jones appears to be forming a megaphone.....beware the megaphone.

[Rob]

What ever happened to Louis Rukeyser?I used to love watching Rukeyser. His stupid puns were awful, but somehow they were okay when he said 'em. The only thing I didn't like on his show was the dwarves or the elves or whatever they were.

[Gatorman]

Originally Posted by Lyehopper
What ever happened to Louis Rukeyser?

Whatever it was, it was medical in nature. As I recall, they said on his show that he was scheduled to have back surgery and would be slow in recuperating. A series of guest hosts replaced him for awhile.
Then they indicated he would not be returning to his show. I, too, enjoyed his shows, especially the panel of guests which included some of the best Wall Street had to offer such as Cohen, Birinyi, Marsden, etc.
The PBS replacement has little to offer.

[Jim Smith]

IGT....put this short back on....feels better this time around

[Jim Smith]

CLF...long at 91.90

[Jim Smith]

thinking there's pain ahead for casino stocks.....shorted HET ahead of earnings on the intraday test of the 20 day ma.....

[Jim Smith]

OATS....shorted.....thinking it closes the chart gap before moving again

[Jim Smith]

SGMS short.....tight leash

[Jim Smith]

YRCW....long....could rally 10% fairly quickly

WLP & UNH....long both

[Jim Smith]

JNJ speculation.....March 60 calls at 40 cents.

[Jim Smith]

IFN....pennant formation....$53 target on a breakout.

[DSteckler]

I sold IFN last week and moved over to IIF. Wish I had stayed in IFN.

[Jim Smith]

CVS....long

[New-born baby]

I sold IFN last week and moved over to IIF. Wish I had stayed in IFN.

This stock ought to be in the pick of the year contest.

[spikefader]

CVS....longI like this one. Good luck dude.

http://img118.imageshack.us/img118/7920/cvsfeb238sj.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Jim Smith]

CPRT..breaking out of large symmetrical triangle

[Jim Smith]

OATS....looks strong......long and looking for a good size move

[Jim Smith]

CSCO....bought some March 20 calls at 35 cents.

[Jim Smith]

ITWO...long

[skiracer]

CSCO....bought some March 20 calls at 35 cents.
Jim,
I bought those same calls myself this morning. I was just wondering what you plan is on them. What are you looking for and how long do you think you could realistically hold them. They could be in the money here shortly. Would appreciate picking your brain on this trade. Thanks, Ed.

[Jim Smith]

well, if last year repeats, CSCO could make $21.80

[Jim Smith]

ALDN and ITWO.....long both

[Jim Smith]

OATS....I think this is going to $30 quickly.

[DSteckler]

OATS looks nice, Smitty. Was a Cooper buy today.

[Jim Smith]

Looking for the Dow jones to reach 10300 by the end of april......I believe Wednesday is a bounce day.....ANF could be a good bounce play....I believe GOOG will close that chart gap at $320 in a few weeks.....AAPL looks like a great short to me with a target of $54.....Still long OATS.....

[skiracer]

Not a bad little reversal on those CSCO calls either today. Are you still holding them?

[Jim Smith]

I bought CSCO common and blew out the calls......CSCO is a $23.50 stock this year.

[Jim Smith]

OATS is making me nervous.....It should have taken out Monday's high....My system says when a stock doesn't do what you expect, WHEN you expect it, sell......OATS just might be a better buy near $15 and I am over loaded with it.

[Jim Smith]

MAGS....weekly chart shaping up to be a double bottom

[Jim Smith]

AAPL....shorting it into the ground

MHS broke out of what appears to be a symmetrical triangle.

[skiracer]

Just sold those CSCO March 20 calls at .85. In at .35 out at .85. Nice trade over 24 hrs. Thanks Jim for bringing them to my attention.

[Jim Smith]

I think the nasdaq has seen a near term top.....I believe we'll go down and test that trendline from the 4 year lows around 2125 on the comp.

[New-born baby]

Just sold those CSCO March 20 calls at .85. In at .35 out at .85. Nice trade over 24 hrs. Thanks Jim for bringing them to my attention.

Yes, Jim, Nice Call! Now please post a few more. How about STI? $75 calls.

[Jim Smith]

AAPL has issues, imo....I think those who wanted an Ipod have one....heck, I have two and I am no early adopter.

[Jim Smith]

PWAV is one I like.....going to do good business in CHina and India

[skiracer]

Jim
Your avatar. Is that you or a picture of John Erlichman from the Nixon administration. Looks alot like Erlichman.

[DSteckler]

Geez, Ski...don't you ever watch HBO? That's Tony Soprano.

[Jim Smith]

LOL....I can assure you, I don't look like Tony Soprano or that Avatar for those of you without HBO.

[skiracer]

Geez, Ski...don't you ever watch HBO? That's Tony Soprano.

Dave,
I'm probalby the only guy in the United States that has never saw one episode of the Sopranos. Now that you mention it I do recognize the actor.
Some of my best friends have an are living the reality so the show doesn't hold that much interest for me.

[Jim Smith]

OVTI getting dismantled ah.....sticking with my though that we've seen a short term top in the nasdaq.....2125 to 2130 is my downside target.

[Jim Smith]

Dow Jones target is 10200 over the next two months, IMO.

[Jim Smith]

APA long for a trade.....tight leash

[Jim Smith]

MAGS....long....breaking out of long base

[Jim Smith]

TAP....watching closely with the intent of bellying up to the bar.

[Jim Smith]

just poured me a tall one......tight leash on TAP

[Jim Smith]

Yesterday was a one day wonder IMO.....looking for an 8% correction across the board.....my advice, start drinking heavily....Molson/Coors that is.....

[Jim Smith]

$TNX breaking out....bond yields rising out of symmetrical triangle....Get ready for some PE compression.

[Jim Smith]

BWA is flirting one too many times with a 3 year trendline.....looking for $46/47 downside target.

[Jim Smith]

ENWV.... a speculation trade.....above the 100 day moving average first time in a long time

[Jim Smith]

checking into PSYS..........long

[Jim Smith]

ICE ICE baby

[Jim Smith]

CIEN....above the 200 week moving average on huge volume

[spikefader]

ICE ICE babyheh Jim, don't remind me! hehe I was stalkin that one in the 'c' thread and then got distracted and missed the entry! (thus the Duh in the pic)............and yeah, not bad for a MM data dump gem either (canada day dump recently)! I told ya those dumps finds some absolute gems! hehe Speaking of dumps......he's got another one already....I better check it out quick!

http://img453.imageshack.us/img453/3461/icefeb245zc.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Jim Smith]

H&S formation on the NDX....be careful


TAP looks sweet.

[Jim Smith]

PWEI....potential breakout play here..

[Jim Smith]

PWEI....gone......long and looking for $30 near term....ROE of 90%? Yowzaaa

[Jim Smith]

I know we don't talk stocks around here cuz we're busy planning a trip to AC where no one will show up ......But PWEI is on a break out mission....I've seen folks spend a lot of on line time planning conventions in the past....And no one went.

[DSteckler]

Kicking myself for the day I sold it.

[New-born baby]

PWEI....potential breakout play here..

Has anybody ever told you that you look like Gene Hackman?

[Jim Smith]

Dude, that's tony soprano.....The only I thing I have in common with the Soprano character is we're both in the garbage business.

[New-born baby]

Dude, that's tony soprano.....The only I thing I have in common with the Soprano character is we're both in the garbage business.

I guess you've figured out that I don't own a TV. Who is Tony Soprano? Besides a garbage man? Never mind: I'll google search him out.

[Jim Smith]

shorting AAPL

[Jim Smith]

AAPL has a date with $55 minimum....slowing consumer spending.....higher interest rates.....AAPL stores will drag on the bottom line the way Gateway country stores dragged on GTW.....AAPL is a survivor but not at this price.

[Websman]

Sure I told you to bite me on the ELN thread, but you still have some great ideas. Keep up the good work dude!

[New-born baby]

AAPL has a date with $55 minimum....slowing consumer spending.....higher interest rates.....AAPL stores will drag on the bottom line the way Gateway country stores dragged on GTW.....AAPL is a survivor but not at this price.

I agree. I shorted AAPL a couple of weeks ago and it worked nicely, but those AAPL buyers came back in in a big way. But the bulls have to be getting tired. That's a lot of weight overhead.

[Adam]

Come on Jim, I got fifty for you if there's a under 50% attendance at the convention......we'll hit the tables?

[Robbb24]

Jim don't give up on COH yet....still looks like its forming a handle in its pattern. Volume trends remain favorable.

[IIC]

I know we don't talk stocks around here cuz we're busy planning a trip to AC where no one will show up ......But PWEI is on a break out mission....I've seen folks spend a lot of on line time planning conventions in the past....And no one went.

Jim...Why do you think nobody will show up??? We made it at a location near where many members live...I woulda preferred a 3 day cruise or Vegas...But I agree that not many would show up to those.

I've set up meets in the past and made them where the most live and there has been pretty good attendance %-wise.

So...Can we count on you being there? I don't think it would be so bad if only 20-30 showed up plus spouses, friends, kids or whoever. I'd love to meet other members...Don't be a downer...I'd like to meet you too...Best, Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

Jim...Why do you think nobody will show up??? We made it at a location near where many members live...I woulda preferred a 3 day cruise or Vegas...But I agree that not many would show up to those.

I've set up meets in the past and made them where the most live and there has been pretty good attendance %-wise.

So...Can we count on you being there? I don't think it would be so bad if only 20-30 showed up plus spouses, friends, kids or whoever. I'd love to meet other members...Don't be a downer...I'd like to meet you too...Best, Doug(IIC)

Doug,
He has to show up now. Me and Adam took him up on that bet. I want and need that $50.

[Jim Smith]

I think this rising interest rate environment is going to put a kink in the usual 4 year presidential cycle which generally indicates strength into April/May....

JOYG....short

[Jim Smith]

where do you go when you feel the Dow is headed to 10,000? I think you short brokerage stocks.....

[Jim Smith]

IFN....carved out a perfect technical top at $53 which I mentioned was the target here.....this ETF sells for substantially more than its NAV....the short entry was Friday of course, but another 10 points down won't surprise me....I am a buyer there....Remember, markets are more correlated when they fall than when they rise.

[Jim Smith]

FWLT....carving out a symmetrical triangle.... downside break yields 10 more points...

[Jim Smith]

ENWV....mentioned this one here a buck ago.....

[Jim Smith]

I have the SOX dropping to 445, the bottom of the channel, over the next six weeks....

[Jim Smith]

TAP......4 points in 7 days after I mentioned it here Mar 2nd.....I am huge, but no meats or cheese for me, cholesterol is too high.

[spikefader]

TAP......4 points in 7 days after I mentioned it here Mar 2nd.....I am huge, but no meats or cheese for me, cholesterol is too high.Hey Jim. Congrats on the win. Nice 7% in 7 days. Definately some hugeness in that trade. I especially like the fact that the position only felt sub-1% pain before taking off; that's the hugest of all in my book. They are the kind of entries I love dude. Keep em coming and thanks for contributing.

The only thing I think your posts and the threads would benefit from is the r/r you're assigning and where's your stop.

Keep pickin' those winners! :D

[Jim Smith]

I don't use price stops, I use time stops....

[spikefader]

I don't use price stops, I use time stops....That's an interesting concept Jim. What are your rules or practise for that? Any exceptions to the rule?

Say for example you enter a position and it moves immediately against you, what do you do? And how does that plan change with increased volatility and movement against you? Do you have a maximum pain emergency exit?

Thanks in advance.

[Jim Smith]

The rule is fairly simple. If I expect a stock to move on a certain date, and it doesn't, I sell....If I expected the move to be up, but it was down on that date, and vice versa, I sell.....

[Jim Smith]

FO....I am watching this one with the intent of buying......no position yet.

[Jim Smith]

HITK....on my buy list....I think it can make $35+ over the next six weeks.....recent earnings were good....Recent bounce off the 40 week ma and closed on the 10 week ma....

[Jim Smith]

HITK....long 1200 shares at $26.50......I should have made this my POTW given the gap apple saw this morning.

[Jim Smith]

HITK.....adding more at $27.16.....my six week target here is $35+

[Lyehopper]

Hey Jimbo.... What do you think of JAH?

I just started buying it.

[Jim Smith]

FO....could make you a fortune....this is a top play idea for me over the next six months....looking for 20% upside.

[Jim Smith]

JAH....nice,,,,just moved back above the 100 day moving average today for the first time.....this goes on my screen with buy implications

[Jim Smith]

Gosh dang it Lyehopper that JAH chart was more potent and quicker acting than Viagra.....had to jump on some shares....thanks for mentioning.

[Jim Smith]

CRDN....short...

[Jim Smith]

SKS has a $4 special dividend coming payable May 1st for shareholders of record April 14th....thinking that this stock moves up into that record date....

[Lyehopper]

...... that JAH chart was more potent and quicker acting than Viagra....
Yeah it "WAS".... needs a bit more "foreplay" I guess?lol

[Jim Smith]

NKE short....

[Jim Smith]

This market is going to remain dicey until the SOX moves to the bottom rail of its ascending channel around 442, imo

[Jim Smith]

IP....seems to be breaking out of a head and shoulder bottoming pattern.

[Jim Smith]

IP long....looking for $42+.....

[Jim Smith]

WLT....long off the 10 week ma

[Jim Smith]

GOOG....macd divergence.....long.....$600 target.....LOL....long anyway

[New-born baby]

GOOG....macd divergence.....long.....$600 target.....LOL....long anyway

Are you playing NTES?

[Jim Smith]

I like NTES too, but GOOG is in my wheelhouse

[Jim Smith]

LM .....long.....It just feels like Cramer is going to pump Legg Mason all the way to $135 for Friday's expiration.

[Jim Smith]

Whoa Nelly, I found a roulette play.....LM Mar 130 calls for 25 cents.....all aboard for an all or nothing play.....25 cents gets you $5 bucks thanks to cramer.

[Jim Smith]

GOOG back above the 200 day.....long shares and the Sept 380 calls.

[Jim Smith]

YHOO.....looking ok here....a buy above $32....target is $38.50 by Memorial day.

[Jim Smith]

DXPE.....broke out of a large ascending triangle base.....looks like $40 is the measured target....now $28.50

[Jim Smith]

COHR...acting well.....chart gap at $37.40, I think it gets filled.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH....little stock with a big product.....new medical device for detecting heart problems....getting medical reimbursement.

[Jim Smith]

SSCC....another potential head and shoulders bottom pattern.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH....can I pound the table on this? They've got this $30K machine for determing which patients get a certain heart problem....the test costs $75 .....AET already said they'll reimburse for it....this feels like a BLTI all over again.

[Jim Smith]

NCTY....long

[Jim Smith]

SKS.....acting well into its record date for the $4 special dividend.

[RL]

Jim what Is blti all over again

[Jim Smith]

CAMH.....they have a new machine for diagnosing heart defects....Aetna approved reimbursement tuesday for the procedure, now the stock is flying.

[Jim Smith]

FO....through the 200 day ma for the first time in a long time

[Jim Smith]

ISRG....on the move....the 30 day ema is key, imo

[Jim Smith]

CHUX....cup and handle breakout

[Jim Smith]

OATS....catching fire..

[Jim Smith]

EK moving up.....


and where are all the posters?

[Jim Smith]

OATS crossed over the 0.618 Fib number today......it's $28.50 now.

[mrmarket]

EK moving up.....


and where are all the posters?

You don't need posters...your stuff is a good read. Check your thread views between each of your posts and you'll see how big your "fan club" is. It's what I call "the ratio stat". You have about 5100 reads for 314 posts, so about 17 people look in on each post (about average for the board).

That's pretty good, it's like standing by the office cooler and have 17 people listen to you all day.

[Smurf123]

Jim, keep posting, your info is much apreciated.

[Lyehopper]

You don't need posters...your stuff is a good read. Check your thread views between each of your posts and you'll see how big your "fan club" is. It's what I call "the ratio stat". You have about 5100 reads for 314 posts, so about 17 people look in on each post (about average for the board).

That's pretty good, it's like standing by the office cooler and have 17 people listen to you all day.
I read every post you make Jim....

[Jim Smith]

MGM.....bull flag breakout.....target is $42.40

[Lyehopper]

MGM.....bull flag breakout.....target is $42.40
Good one dude.... thanks

[Jim Smith]

LIZ....outside day....back above the 200 day ma...

ARO....breakout too

[Jim Smith]

CAMH.....Their product will be the subject of a Morgan Stanley conference scheduled for 3 pm Monday........

[Jim Smith]

The decision on medicare reimbursement for the CAMH cardio test will be delivered Tuesday March 21st.....I think Aetna feels this is going to be approved and therefore decided to get out in front by approving reimbursement last week.

[TFred]

Greetings Jim,

Very Impressed by you info.Can you give a heads up on how you screen your data,and find these gems?I have only a couple dozen I keep an eye on,how do you screen for your selections.Thanks in advance,

cordially Tom

[Jim Smith]

I am just a tape reader....Though the CAMH play came from a broker friend of mine....I never would have caught CAMH because it's a bulletin board play.....But I watch CNBC with the mute on for purposes of tape reading....Then, I have two monitors with one devoted to charts....I watch intraday, daily, and weekly charts.....I do run screens with the help of Schwab's streetsmartpro.....not bad for a free screener....I have started buying IBD on Sunday's and go through their top 100 picks....I simply look for year over year repeating patterns....what I want to know is, was the stock falling or rising this time last year and what's the technical picture like this year.

[Jim Smith]

BID is pulling back a bit following that great earnings report...I think this one's a buy with a target of $28.50 next month.

[dmk112]

Jim,

Do you think Tony is dead?

[Jim Smith]

Do you think Tony is dead?


Only if he demanded another raise from HBO.

[Lyehopper]

Hey Jimbo.... Need another HUGE pick in the POTW. OTC BB stocks are not allowed. Sorry dude....

btw.... I put that in the origional 2006 rules because my database and portfolio tracking software did not track OTC BB's when I was scorekeeping. You can find the current rules on a link at the bottom of any of Rob's posts.

[Jim Smith]

MER....short....looks like a MACD negative divergence........tight leash.

[Jim Smith]

BID and SGP are new longs......targets are $28 and $21 respectively

[RL]

Jim thanks for DXPE looking good right now

[RL]

Jim just bought SGP what Is your take on CELL

[Jim Smith]

CELL looks pretty good....I see this stock has a tendency to consolidate for fairly long stretches.....it might be nearing the end of its current consolidation....

[Jim Smith]

BOT.....long.....

[Jim Smith]

SINA....breaking a two + year downtrend on solid volume

[Adman]

BID and SGP are new longs......targets are $28 and $21 respectively

I have been very, very bullish on SGP for some time now. I am in three times in the past 5 weeks for a cost basis of 18.46.
I have a mid-year target of 23.
Additionally, I have 50 of the April 20 calls, which I got at a dime. Anyone who gets into Schering now, will be a very happy player come summer.
As I stated several times: This is my only, serious US pharm play out this year.

DISCLOSURE: Obviously, I have an interest in SGP.

[Jim Smith]

ERS....nice symmetrical triangle breakout

[DSteckler]

Nice one, Smitty. Wish I hadn't sold it a few weeks ago.

[Jim Smith]

PALM....worth watching for a long side play....tried for the triangle breakout but turned back....

[Jim Smith]

on the lookout for a possible significant reversal here in the major indicies.....maybe all the way back to the January lows.

[DSteckler]

on the lookout for a possible significant reversal here in the major indicies.....maybe all the way back to the January lows.

The SPX is making two consecutive outside days...very bearish.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH received approval for medicare reimbursement for the cardio test......I am expecting this stock to triple by the end of the year.

[spikefader]

Hey Jim, when did that buddy of yours advise buying CAMH?

I see it's dropped 30% in 2 days. Do you own this?

[Jim Smith]

I do own CAMH.....MY friend from Merrill told me about it when it was about a buck.....he says look for $10 by year's end.....this is a stock of the year candidate

[Jim Smith]

PAL....looks to be trying to break out of a falling flag pattern....$14 is the target.....

[Jim Smith]

SKS....don't forget $4 special dividend for holders of APril 14....I expect a run to recent highs into that dividend.

[Jim Smith]

BID....on its way to $28...

MGM, nice move......giving you pearls on this site.

[Jim Smith]

YHOO.....picked up 2000 shares yesterday and catching an upgrade.....finally a good break goes my way....IMO, the shares repeat last year's move at this time....That is it gets to $35 by early April, then $39 early June......these analysts use TA as well as fundies but most won't admit it.

[Jim Smith]

TASR is looking like a nice little cup and handle here.....

[Jim Smith]

GIGM.....long....I don't generally like to buy preopen but had to dip a toe in

[Jim Smith]

CAMH is a $10 this year, IMO>>>>>they're product for determining who may need a implantable defribilator won reimbursement from medicare....now doctors have incentive to invest in the machines and do the tests.....this is a one off move, imo.....meaning, once the docs have the machines, there's not much revenue from the consumables to keep the stock soaring......the money is made now on the initial ramp of equipment buying.

[Jim Smith]

CMED.....completed a secondary today.....picked up shares in the low $28 area....

[Jim Smith]

LLY....setting up a cup and handle.....we're at resistance right here.

PAL continues firm with palladium breaking out....

[Jim Smith]

TWPG....long

[Adman]

TWPG....long

Tower Group is OK, but I like MIG a little better.

[Jim Smith]

TWPG....Thomas Weisel partners group

[Jim Smith]

SOSA....this is my early hurrican season call.

[Jim Smith]

JOYG....negative MACD divergence......shorted above $60

[Jim Smith]

BUCY.....shorted at 71.44

[Jim Smith]

DIGE....a roll over candidate.....short at 41.85

[Jim Smith]

NUAN....breakout....long


giving you pearls here.

[RL]

Sure glad you came In with a long play I just do not playing short

[RL]

Jim bought DXPE back on 3/15 Its made a nice move. Do you think any more In It?

[Lyehopper]

NUAN....breakout....long


giving you pearls here.
You're a Saint Jimbo.... A Saint!....lol

Thanks dude.

[Jim Smith]

DXPE triangle measures to $40

[Jim Smith]

my cycle works says buy oil service on weakness Wednesday....avoid semiconductors into late April.....avoid CSCO till it drops a dollar.....buy YHOO and GOOG.....buy SOSA and GLBL, I think those will have a great summer....buy HET on Wednesday's pullback...buy GIGM and MGAM, gambling rules......avoid brokers....accumulate CAMH....in oil service, currently long EOG, LUFK, HAL, APA, CHK....short AAPL with impunity....

[New-born baby]

my cycle works says buy oil service on weakness Wednesday....avoid semiconductors into late April.....avoid CSCO till it drops a dollar.....buy YHOO and GOOG.....buy SOSA and GLBL, I think those will have a great summer....buy HET on Wednesday's pullback...buy GIGM and MGAM, gambling rules......avoid brokers....accumulate CAMH....in oil service, currently long EOG, LUFK, HAL, APA, CHK....short AAPL with impunity....

Thanks Jim for the advice. AAPL short has been very nice. :D

[Jim Smith]

PRKR might just blow straight up

[Jim Smith]

bought the GOOG June 380 calls yesterday ......back above the uptrend line

[Jim Smith]

bought DIA puts

[New-born baby]

bought DIA puts

At what strike? At what Price? If you don't mind telling . . .

[Jim Smith]

BUCY....taking another shot at the short side

[Jim Smith]

HP....head and shoulders b/o.....could rally 10 points

[Jim Smith]

shorting this dow is futile......no more of that for me ....

[Jim Smith]

YHOO....today, could be the start of it's mini run to $35+

[Lyehopper]

Your POTW play (BKHM) is lookin' strong Jim....

I picked up some myself dude. Thanks.

[Jim Smith]

imo, MOT will be trading at $35+ by year's end.....these razr phones are read hot....everybody wants one......this situation reminds me of apple a few years back.

[Jim Smith]

the triangle breakout on the 10 year indicates a target yield of 5.83%....another 100 basis points on top of what we have now.....we could be in for some pain over the next few weeks.

[Jim Smith]

ISRG....could jump another 20 points

[New-born baby]

the triangle breakout on the 10 year indicates a target yield of 5.83%....another 100 basis points on top of what we have now.....we could be in for some pain over the next few weeks.

Jim,
Please give us your prognosis of what kind of pain we may have to endure. Falling market? Rising interest? Inflation? etc

Thanks

[RL]

Jim do you think I should bail on DXPE with maybe hard times coming?

[Jim Smith]

thinking a 5% correction could occur going into April.......but, the four year mid term election cycle says we could rally into May......

[Jim Smith]

FMCN.....breaking out of ascending triangle......$67+ is the measured target.

[Jim Smith]

AGE....b/o yesterday.....measures to 58, the old all time high

[Jim Smith]

LPNT....long at 31.34.....MACD divergence with last move down on daily chart

[Jim Smith]

ADSK looking like an interesting long play here.

[Jim Smith]

PRKR....strong preopen....gave you this pearl last week.

[Jim Smith]

SWY......bought long at 25.46

[DSteckler]

PRKR....strong preopen....gave you this pearl last week.

Nasty reversal. News?

[Jim Smith]

no, news on PRKR.....my friend at Merrill called his stock loan department, they said there's no PRKR available for shorting.....so, my guess is we saw a short covering rally

[Jim Smith]

FOXH seems to be breaking out here.

[Jim Smith]

GOOG....it seems obvious that we've seen the bottom, at least near term.....now we're above the 100 day moving average.

[Jim Smith]

GOOG....for those interested, try to buy around Wednesday's low.....IMO, Friday's employment number will be all about nothing and the general market will rally.....GOOG should be good for $420 Friday

[Jim Smith]

SWIR.....moving above the 50 day....long at 12.25

[Jim Smith]

CAMH.....we successfully tested the recent lows, so far.....the safe play would be to buy above $2.39 and even $2.52......But, I believe the bottom is in and I am buying more here.....NIce article in businessweek on line saying how patients are afraid of these implantable defribilators and how doctors will order every test in the book to show whether the patient will benefit or is at risk of sudden cardiac death....

[Jim Smith]

MOT....this is the next AAPL.....mot lets NOK have the low end of the market....MOT is the innovator.....I believe MOT goes to $39 this year.

[Jim Smith]

CSCO....not yet.....let this come in more.....$20.30 is your buy point.

[Jim Smith]

time to pull in the horns.....this stock market likely to weaken into earnings season, IMO.....watching CSCO as a tell.....

CAMH is a buy with a stop below $2.11

[Jim Smith]

I am here to tell you don't be surprised if the S&P doesn't suffer a Soprano style knee capping taking it down to the 200 day moving average over the next 2+ weeks.

[Jim Smith]

VIX breakout.....I am betting that the VIX makes 18+ near term.....I expect the SPX and Dow to tag their 200 day moving averages near term

[gerihearne]

MOT....this is the next AAPL.....mot lets NOK have the low end of the market....MOT is the innovator.....I believe MOT goes to $39 this year.

Jim, anything change in the last few days .. do u still feel MOT is a solid buy?

Graciously,
Geri

[Jim Smith]

yeah, MOT is a very solid buy....if the market tanks as I expect, then MOT can fall to 22.25....buy a little MOT here and a little on any pullback due to market weakness.....NOK's report spells good things for MOT, imo....higher ASPs for a company making a commodity style phone? That's ringing the dinner bell for MOT, imo....MOT is the AAPL for 2006 because the innovator should benefit the most from a demand for higher quality phones, imo.

[gerihearne]

Thanks Jim. You have a lot of ideas on this thread.
I've been trading 6 months. Looks like this is a good time to buy :)
Warmest,
g

[Jim Smith]

PENN....long.....I may have made a mistake closing PENN as my POTW.....BEBE came through in the clutch last week and I think it's entirely possible that PENN will come through as well....this could run to $48, this week.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH now finding support at the 30 day ema.....this is my personal play of the year....medicare agreed to pick up the cost of the test, so did Aetna....St Jude medical said ICD sales were off so they missed estimates....Now, I can see the CAMH test being advocated by the ICD makers as a means of helping to calm prospective patients as in the more information the better the decision. An MD turned money manager for Merrill has a $15 year end target on this.....I own 14,000 shares.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH continues to firm up....

CLRK...sexy little story in IBD today.....feels like a very solid opportunity

KRY....the pullback was an opportunity to speculate in Venezuelan gold and Hugo Chavez's interest in capitalism.

[Jim Smith]

MZT....bladder cancer test that works.....stock is soaring last several days.

SSCC....big cup and long handle.....$19 is the target.

[Jim Smith]

AAPL...imo, this stock remains a short to $55

[New-born baby]

AAPL...imo, this stock remains a short to $55

They are set to split the stock 2:1--and to beat earnings--I think that news may push the stock higher. But I have seen a stock split announcement run a stock down: CCJ for example.

[Jim Smith]

DSCO....flying ah....could be back on track

[Jim Smith]

Intel is close to a buy, IMO


BBBY....wait for this to get below $37, then buy buy buy

[Jim Smith]

CC....back to $42 in a year, imo

[Jim Smith]

ELN.....back in it.

[Jim Smith]

They're just not going to let this market come in....IMO, it should have come in badly, but it held......I read in IBD that some money was leaving land speculation and coming back into stocks....ready for the echo bubble? IMO, this is all about the devine right of money......the key to wealth near term, invest in what China and India need.

[Shadow]

BBBY....wait for this to get below $37,
then buy buy buy

I've had my eye on this one too. I'll be right there with you
buying.

Shadow

[Jim Smith]

SSCC...long

[Jim Smith]

Gotta pound the table on CAMH now....closed above the 20 day ma.....I think we'll see $3 then wait for the news on a study coming in two weeks.....

GIGM....I think this is a double by the 4th of july.....It's my firecracker special....
COHR....took some in and believe we'll see $42 by mid summer.

[Jim Smith]

CSCO should enter my wheelhouse tomorrow....I am looking for $20.40.....late spring target is $24.

[Jim Smith]

here's an ethanol play the market hasn't caught onto YET>........POT

Do you know how hard corn crops are on the soil? I am a farmer from way back....Corn is brutal on the soil you have to rotate the crops because of it....there's going to be a shit load of demand for fertilizer....pardon the pun....I see POT jumping 50%

[DSteckler]

Chart looks like crap....<VBG> EPS estimates for the upcoming quarter are -11% vs. year ago.

[Jim Smith]

LOL,,,,,yeah, POT looks a bit iffy.....but, if found support at the 100 day moving average.....you just can't grow corn without a ton of fertilizer.....many tons

[Jim Smith]

CSCO is the tell.....Cramer has it right.....CSCO to $25.....stay long this market until CSCO hits $25, then bolt......we're going to rock until Memorial day

[New-born baby]

LOL,,,,,yeah, POT looks a bit iffy.....but, if found support at the 100 day moving average.....you just can't grow corn without a ton of fertilizer.....many tons

I like the looks of POT. It's a gambler's play . . . .
1. Right at resistance at the close. IF POT can bust that $90 resistance tomorrow, we are looking at a target of $116. Intermediate target is $98 . . .
with an option chain of pure gold! The $90 MAY call is $4.50 . . . .
2. If you like this stock, sell that APR $90 PUT and see if they won't pay you to own this one . . . they'll give you $1.55 to take it off their hands by Friday . . . and if POT moves higher, as I suspect, you'll have to formulate another plan to acquire this stock. :D
3. IF it busts that $90 resistance, look at the support you'll have under it. Tremeeeeeeendous price by volume support, senor :D

4. IF POT drops below $84, time to head for the exits or find some kind of a port for the head and shoulders top-type storm to follow . . . :( The daily and weekly are both saying they can turn on you like a shoplifter with a knife . . . .You best look at this second chart before you buy . . . there is real danger here, Cheri.

Or a real chance to profit. You see, that JAN $90 call is selling for $11.30. IF POT can't bust resistance and breaks the neck, it's free money . . . .
One of the things bothering this stock is the oil price. That's right, they use petroleum to make fertilizer.

http://img300.imageshack.us/img300/5613/chart16ch.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Weekly shows symmetrical . . . .
http://img119.imageshack.us/img119/4161/chart11ja.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[mrmarket]

here's an ethanol play the market hasn't caught onto YET>........POT

Do you know how hard corn crops are on the soil? I am a farmer from way back....Corn is brutal on the soil you have to rotate the crops because of it....there's going to be a shit load of demand for fertilizer....pardon the pun....I see POT jumping 50%


Very true.

[Jim Smith]

NLY....coming out of a nice long base....if the fed is done, this stock, and most interest rate sensitives, should do well.

[Jim Smith]

GOOG.....long the June 390 calls.....I believe this is a $600 stock

[mrmarket]

GOOG.....long the June 390 calls.....I believe this is a $600 stock


could be Vegas money for me...I'll take a look.

[Jim Smith]

MWY.....tremendous insider buying

[Jim Smith]

LAB....I mentioned this one here at $11....

[gerihearne]

Jim, this is a great thread.
You're giving us pearls ...
you the man!

((personally, if i had some money not tied up .. i'd throw it on goog and pot))

love your posts,
geri

[Jim Smith]

WEBX....long

[Jim Smith]

ALL....bought in the pre market.....I expect a repeat of last year with a run into mid July then you gotta get out for the hurricane season....there's 8 more points here....plus, you'll get at least one dividend.

[Jim Smith]

NTRI....cup and handle breakout

[Jim Smith]

INTC....is there a more dispised stock? I am seeing a divergence in MACD and this stock's price....put me down for a big move UP UP UP.....target $25.....plus, there's a crap load of April 20 puts that need killing.

[Jim Smith]

my low priced option gambler's special: Buy the Intel July 22.50 call at 30 cents.....whoa nelly.

[Jim Smith]

VRTX.....big breakout I think this has 10 up

[Jim Smith]

Intel......expectations were pretty low and the shares are up on earnings.....I am long the July 20 calls look for $25

[Jim Smith]

POT....imo, this stock sees $126 by the end of summer.....I really like Sept calls....Wow, are they expensive.....

[IIC]

NTRI....cup and handle breakout

NTRI is #2 on the IIC 100...VTRX came up late last night and it was too late to post...But it is on tonight's KILLER watch list

[Jim Smith]

I don't want to sound like an alamist but this is looking to me like 1920's Germany....The fed is printing dollars like mad. They stopped reporting M3. As I have learned this is where the Fed open market operations are revealed. They may raise rates but they're buying treasuries and flooding the market with cash. Gold is telling you this, forget what Kudlow says....Oil is telling us this too....This market is going to fly, speculators will make a fortune. The problem is, the bottom half of society will lose out badly....."This is the end, my only friend the end........"

[Jim Smith]

TRMB....bought at $45.14

[Jim Smith]

CAMH valuation potential as I see it:

12 million tests annually....$75 in consumables per patient is $900 million.
Current market cap is $163 million. Assuming valuation given equal to 1x annual revs:
900/163 = 5.52....Therefore, the ultimate value could be 5.52 x $2.75 current price or
$15 per share....I am not counting machine sales as that would be a one time $450 million occurence.

[df21084]

Jim,

How about a synopsis on CX? What's your impression?

Thanks.

[Jim Smith]

CX...volume up on the pullback....still just profit taking but it could turn into more.

[Jim Smith]

HERO....cup and handle breakout....long

[DSteckler]

Sure it's not a SUB or GRNDR?

<BG>

[Jim Smith]

holding GOOG calls into the close.....

[Jim Smith]

Congrats to me and whoever else strapped them on for some GOOG calls.....Ernie, I thought you were buying GOOG calls for Vegas.

[Jim Smith]

Where is everyone? Silver futures margin requirements raised.......speculators are getting crushed.....get ready to buy buy buy

[gerihearne]

MOT....this is the next AAPL.....mot lets NOK have the low end of the market....MOT is the innovator.....I believe MOT goes to $39 this year.

picked up mot at 22.25 yesterday ...
hope mot gets the momo :)

gh

[Jim Smith]

ALL is my favorite play now......It's my favorite because I think it's going back to it's old highs, quickly, and with little downside risk......But GOOG is going to be favorite today.

[Jim Smith]

SWIR....I do like this stock

[Jim Smith]

LAB.....I think this company finds a way to rip off share holders again.....got to join em to beat them...

[Jim Smith]

ALL....I own so much of this stock, my next dividend should pay for all my insurance for the year....cars and home.

[Jim Smith]

SWIR.....see you at $22.50 by memorial day.....It's my flag waving special

[Jim Smith]

My fire cracker special, GIGM, continues to rock on.

[Lyehopper]

SWIR.....see you at $22.50 by memorial day.....It's my flag waving special
Lovely weekly chart on SWIR dude.... Strong breakout too.... I like it!

[Jim Smith]

DSCO.....there's a chart gap at $7 and that's where this one is headed.....49% in three months.

[Jim Smith]

POT....too legit to quit.....I think there's a pending deal with China coming out....do some homework on this one.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH....I mentioned I was buying at $2.20....A merrill lynch guy I know says his money manager is looking for $15, by year's end......That's ambitious....But, it's been there before.

[IIC]

My fire cracker special, GIGM, continues to rock on.

Posted on 4/14:

IIC Top 10 Under $10

GIGM,LPSN,ININ,CDE,ARGN,DTLK,NTCT,CYB,CBJ,SWB

Little Charts:

http://trimurl.com/4Z0 (http://trimurl.com/4Z0)

[Jim Smith]

I own GIGM from that group.

[IIC]

I own GIGM from that group.

It is # 1 again this week...I think I should buy it...Good eye...I also like ININ...Can't seem to get the timing down though

[Jim Smith]

CAMH.....This is shaping up to be too sweet.....Are any of you playing this with me?

[IIC]

CAMH.....This is shaping up to be too sweet.....Are any of you playing this with me?

Well...you got me to look at it...Love that chart...I will place it on watch and read up...But I thought you didn't like the cheapies???

[Jim Smith]

Normally, I don't touch the cheapies......But this story is too good. The medicare reimbursement is great....But, the real story could turn out to be that the rhetoric from ICD makers like St Jude and Metronic could turn supportive of the test. Plus, my friend at Merrill lynch hasn't steered be wrong yet on these low priced plays.....The last was IOTN at $1.50.

[gerihearne]

CAMH.....This is shaping up to be too sweet.....Are any of you playing this with me?

i put in a buy order for 2.50 .. never went down that low ...

cordially,
geri

[Jim Smith]

The Indian wedding season probably played a role in the last $100 run in gold....I am looking for a pull back over the next month

[Jim Smith]

Alright, where is everybody? If we had as many eyes on the market and posts like POTW, this site would improve immensely........POTW is for fun, it doesn't count folks.....lets have more posts on relevant stock ideas.

[scifos]

Alright, where is everybody? If we had as many eyes on the market and posts like POTW, this site would improve immensely........POTW is for fun, it doesn't count folks.....lets have more posts on relevant stock ideas.

Any comment on this:
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=48728&postcount=99 (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?p=48728#post48728)
Since 1999 its beaten the pants off of the Naz.

[Jim Smith]

you're in good hands with ALLstate.....I expect ALL to repeat last year's run into mid July.....then dump before the hurricane season.

[Jim Smith]

PEIX....bought at $34.75.....this may be the only time Pres Bush helps me specifically.

[Jim Smith]

I see Cramer is pounding the table on CSCO.....I said on this thread that the next rally is not done until CSCO trades at $23.50.....

[mrmarket]

PEIX....bought at $34.75.....this may be the only time Pres Bush helps me specifically.


Oh..you coming to Atlantic City with us?? Still riding my May 30 calls.

[New-born baby]

PEIX....bought at $34.75.....this may be the only time Pres Bush helps me specifically.

I own this one too. But today's candlestick is far less than inspiring. Big danger here: HUGE volume, but a gravestone doji. One thing is for sure: incredible resistance at $35. Still kicking myself for not taking it all off the table at $35.20 today when I had the chance. OOOOOFFFFF! Shorters will be in this one tomorrow.

This is just a pause on its way to higher ground. But note that awesome resistance at $35.

[DSteckler]

I own this one too. But today's candlestick is far less than inspiring. Big danger here: HUGE volume, but a gravestone doji. One thing is for sure: incredible resistance at $35. Still kicking myself for not taking it all off the table at $35.20 today when I had the chance. OOOOOFFFFF! Shorters will be in this one tomorrow.

This is just a pause on its way to higher ground. But note that awesome resistance at $35.

That's not a gravestone doji.

http://www.daytradersbulletin.com/html/cs19.html

[RL]

Jim what do you think about WHQ?

[Lyehopper]

That's not a gravestone doji.

http://www.daytradersbulletin.com/html/cs19.html
Dave, you misunderstood NBB.... He meant gravestone "GoJi"....

[DSteckler]

Aha. I hate it when that happens....<g>

[Jim Smith]

WHQ,,,,what's not to like?

[DSteckler]

WHQ,,,,what's not to like?

The fact that its ROE, ROI and ROA all lag both its industry group and sector.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH.....looks like a bear flag setting up with today's drop.....if it occurs as indicated, this stock might fall all the way to $1....I am out.

[Jim Smith]

Intel is perking up.....a very dispised stock coming to this market's emotional rescue?

[Jim Smith]

GIGM....continues to move up

[DSteckler]

GIGM....continues to move up

Sorry I ever sold mine!

[Jim Smith]

TSN....moved out of a base on improved volume....a buy on today's morning broad market weakness, imo......my target is $17.35 in four weeks......This might be the type of "go to" stock the market seeks out when high beta plays are abandoned short term.

[Jim Smith]

CSCO....again, this rally ain't done till CSCO trades between 23.50 and $24

[Jim Smith]

POT....ready to break a huge downtrend.....watch that $94 number

[Jim Smith]

POT is off to the races.....this is my number one play on ethanol......

GIGM is my number one % gainer for the summer.

ALL is my number one safety first, gains second play for the summer.

[Jim Smith]

TSN.....theres' a call and a half.....anyone get on that one? I love these TSN June 15 calls......they'll be worth $2.50

[Jim Smith]

INTC....I believe this has bottomed for now....In fact, the alliance with Apple is really important to Intel, imo....We've come full circle in PCs....First the innovation, then the commoditization and next is innovation all over again....Now, Dell can't make money, but Apple can....Intel made a brilliant move with Apple....I look for Intel to trade to $23.50 by Memorial day.

[Jim Smith]

ALL.....I am in good hands with Allstate....with 7300 shares, it's by far my biggest position....I expect $65 in mid July. This stock trades below 10x this year's earnings....Plus, I'll get that dividend in June....GIGM just chugs higher, on it's way to $13.50 in two months....CAMH trying to regroup, earnings report Tuesday.....POT is testing its broken trendline, I think there's a CHina deal coming. Buying foreign market exposure to take advantage of this dollar meltdown....Gold could make $1000.

[skiracer]

ALL.....I am in good hands with Allstate....with 7300 shares, it's by far my biggest position....I expect $65 in mid July. This stock trades below 10x this year's earnings....Plus, I'll get that dividend in June....GIGM just chugs higher, on it's way to $13.50 in two months....CAMH trying to regroup, earnings report Tuesday.....POT is testing its broken trendline, I think there's a CHina deal coming. Buying foreign market exposure to take advantage of this dollar meltdown....Gold could make $1000.

I'm in the gold ETF from $46. I was thinking $600 was possible by year end but gold closed at $653.00 today. What would $1000 mean to the markets an everything else. Where would oil be if gold went to $1000.00.

[RL]

Jim glad to see your post, I'm In GIGM also took It In the POTW. DXPE broke 40 do you think there Is more to go or maybe I should wait for a pull back and buy more?

[Jim Smith]

DXPE is a stud....wow,,,,,I have no target on that one.......Oil is going to $100....I am long SU....those oil sands are pure gold.....170 billion barrels equivalent.....Canada is the place to be....exchange your US dollars for Canadian dollars.....Vancouver is one of the most beautiful places in north america.....Are Mexican people coming to America at the same time Americans want to move to Mexico? Wow, that's a switch....If Mexico had property rights I could believe in, along with road runner high speed internet, I'd consider the move myself.

[IIC]

Geez...seems like every time I read your thread I'm reading about stocks in the IIC 100...DXPE was # 2 this past week...Maybe we pick stocks the same way Jim ;)

Anyway...I don't know about cable internet in Mexico...But I've used DSL down there and it was pretty fast...Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

Geez...seems like every time I read your thread I'm reading about stocks in the IIC 100...DXPE was # 2 this past week...Maybe we pick stocks the same way Jim ;)

Anyway...I don't know about cable internet in Mexico...But I've used DSL down there and it was pretty fast...Doug(IIC)

The only decent thing about Mexico is the Michoacan state. A very high grade weed grows there with big long buds that are a very deep rich brown and quite pungent. Although Humboldt county California is now just as high a quality an almost no seeds but lacks that rich brown earthy character that the Michoacan comes by naturally. A nice place to visit but I wouldn't want to live there.

[spikefader]

DXPE is a stud....wowYou said it dude. It was a boomer a month ago (http://webpages.charter.net/spikefiles/SpikesCharts/DXPE%20Mar%2028.jpg).
...DXPE was # 2 this past week... ;)..nice call.
...If DXPE can bust out of the $25 resistance it could run like Shaun Alexander in the open field... You sir, get the Crystal Ball Award of the week!

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/8313/potwtuesintraday8al.jpg

...Tragedy of the week is dmk's DXPE. Kind of what happened to my TOTG last week, only I had the sense to get out. dmk decided to let 'er ride, and boy, he's gotta be feelin' cruddy right now. Chin up dude. Was a great pick. Just not so great an exit hehe.
http://img118.imageshack.us/img118/9664/potwthurseod4xk.jpg

[IIC]

DXPE is # 1 on the IBD 100 next week...I'll run the IIC 100 scan in the morn.

Spike...Thx...But scans are not a "CALL"...I just have my criteria entered and I simply press a key....And out they pop...Doug(IIC)