Jim's cycle trades

[spikefader]

.Spike...Thx...But scans are not a "CALL"...I just have my criteria entered and I simply press a key....And out they pop...Doug(IIC)
lol well I was gonna say "better late than never" but thought I'd say something nice instead lol Have a great weekend dude. Call or not, your top 100 has some gems.

[IIC]

lol well I was gonna say "better late than never" but thought I'd say something nice instead lol Have a great weekend dude. Call or not, your top 100 has some gems.


WHAT???...Better Late Than Never!!!...DXPE made its debut on the IIC 100 back on November 5th at # 11...I didn't go back further to see if it had appeared earlier though....I never get the credit...But I ALWAYS get the blame...Reminds me of my first wife...She took everything but the blame...Doug(IIC)

[Jim Smith]

GIGM rocking preopen on China deal.

[Jim Smith]

CSCO is my tell,,,,,,this market rallies till CSCO tags $24......Brokers should continue to correct with GS reachin $140.....I added the RTH today....I see the RTH in a large triangle and believe the break is to the upside.....also bought ANF, MZT and BEAV.

[Jim Smith]

let CSCO be your driver........it's the metaphorical dash board jesus......I am in good hands with Allstate, and you could be too......POT is rolling.

[Jim Smith]

TRMB.....breaking out from a bull flag

[Jim Smith]

NEU.....could make $72 fast on a breakout of the apparent ascending triangle.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH had blowout sales numbers.........no one is reading my thread?.....this is a snooze fest, my thread should be hopping...

[billyjoe]

JIM,
CAMH doesn't appear to be making any money, but just losing it at a decreasing rate.

billyjoe

[Jim Smith]

camh had a large non cash charge......CAMH is stock of the year.

[IIC]

camh had a large non cash charge......CAMH is stock of the year.

I read your thread.

What year are we talking about Jim??? ;)

http://trimurl.com/558

[wweeaazz]

camh had a large non cash charge......CAMH is stock of the year.
You said you were out of CAMH in post 483. Just sayin...

[Lyehopper]

You said you were out of CAMH in post 483. Just sayin...
Is that you Stock Boy? Say hi to your sister at Princeton for me!

[Jim Smith]

We're not investors here.....I did sell 16000 shares back then but bought back 5000 shares recently

[gerihearne]

CAMH.....looks like a bear flag setting up with today's drop.....if it occurs as indicated, this stock might fall all the way to $1....I am out.

i must have missed it ... wondering when u got back in ...

cordially,
geri

[Jim Smith]

I bought CAMH late last week.....16000 shares felt large when the bear flag occurred.....but my friend at Merrill convinced me that on the weekly chart, nothing bad had occurred. And he was right.....but, 16000 shares in such a relatively illiquid stock felt like too much.....so I bought 5000......I am going to watch the response to the CAMH earnings....I may buy back 10,000 shares today.

[Jim Smith]

RES....big volume breakout of cup and handle......could make $41

[wweeaazz]

Is that you Stock Boy? Say hi to your sister at Princeton for me!

unlike you. I was just stating that i do read Jim's thread, he stated he was out of CAMH and i hadn't seen anything saying he had reclaimed his position. Your response may be one reason that there isn't more conversation on some of these threads.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH bear flag seems to be the dominant theme today.....avoid for now..... I am out of this stock.

[RL]

Jim thanks for DXPE It's gang busters the best I have ever bought. In RES this morning, thanks for you posts.

[Jim Smith]

CSCO continues its firmness.....I think tech is good......

[Jim Smith]

NEU close to a breakout....and it could be explosive too

[Jim Smith]

NEU breakout....this could fly up 10 more very quickly

[RL]

What do you think Jim take my profit and wait for another move up or just let It ride? I'm talking about DXPE

[Jim Smith]

DXPE....take the profit.

[Jim Smith]

WEBX.....too legit to quit.....I have a $48 summer target.

[RL]

Thanks Jim this Is the largest gain I have ever had on one stock

[Jim Smith]

WEBX.....changing my mind here due to the divergence between the MACD and the stocks price.....not bullish anymore.

[Jim Smith]

ICE......continuation head and shoulders pattern.....target 95

[Jim Smith]

LOW.....broke 7 week downtrend and the 200 day ma......interest rates headed lower with 10 year going to 4.8%, imo......this will be a countertrend interest rate move but will happen fast......LOW to 70 minimum.

[Jim Smith]

DE....short....several days at the top here.......looking for $86

[RL]

Jim been waiting for your picks?

[Jim Smith]

I like GOOG......long the Sept 410 calls

ERS might retrace 50% of that drop.....that's around $49

CSCO....I like this one to $24.20....long this one too.
CAMH....hold 10 months for $35

[Jim Smith]

TLT....long.....betting that the rates on the 10 year fall to 4.8% or lower, fast.

[Rob]

CSCO....I like this one to $24.20....long this one too.I guess you're aware they're reporting earnings at the closing bell today. (Just thought I'd mention it on the slim chance that you aren't.) I like CSCO too, but not willing to pick it up this close to earnings.

[Jim Smith]

Yeah Rob, thanks....I am strapped in for the CSCO call.....I like the fact it's weak in front of the earnings report.

[Jim Smith]

Betting that the yield curve will invert and therefore a recession in 2007

[DSteckler]

TLT....long.....betting that the rates on the 10 year fall to 4.8% or lower, fast.

I sold Rydex Juno today (shorts bonds) and went long Rydex Inverse OTC (shorts the NDX).

[Jim Smith]

Holding 40 July CSCO calls.....my work said CSCO to $24.20 and this market rally wouldn't end till CSCO topped out.....CSCO is rocking on the earnings call.

[Rob]

CSCO is rocking on the earnings call.I'm watching that. Congrats on holding. CNBC reported that their $0.29 beat the highest forecasts, even though the avg. was $0.26. Hey, a win is a win.

[Jim Smith]

I think GOOG can see $525 by Memorial day..........What I am looking for is a significant countertrend move down in the 10 year treasury note yield.....I think a lot of stocks rally on this but then later sell off as the yield inversion folks take the field....
So, I like retail for a trade.....Love the CSCO.....MOT is a play I like......I think the NDX is going to RAMP.....I am long the TLT looking for 88.....

[Jim Smith]

Or, maybe there's no recession and we get a taste of 1923 Germany as folks lose confidence in the US dollar.......Stocks fly, bonds plummet, tangibles fly.....I don't know but Buffet doesn't want to hold US dollars and he's willing to send them to Israel.....Is that an indictment on the buck? Rather than hold US dollars, he sends them to a relatively unstable part of the world.

[mrmarket]

CSCO's stock price is off 80% of its all time high, yet its earnings and revenues are greater than when the stock was at its all time high. While 20% growth is probably not attainable for this behemoth, 10% growth looks very reasonable and very impressive.

I have to agree with Jim..CSCO is a steal right here.

[DSteckler]

CSCO has a saucer & handle pattern on the weekly chart. Pivot price is a close above 22.

[EMphase]

Hi Jim,
US dollar falling can be something allright for your economy at least for the short term. Of course you are losing buying power if you travel or if you invest in another country such as Canada but if you aren't doing it now, you may lose even more buying power so Warren Buffet investing right now for international firms is a sign that he does believe the US dollar will go down further. I share the same thoughts of Mr. Buffet. I am a canadian and I am currently investing in the US market but I'm hedging my positions with currency-based derivates (long canadian dollar) because I highly think that if I'm exposed to the currency risk, I'm going to lose some of my US profits.

A low US dollar means you will be able to export more outside of the United States by being more competitive versus other firms in other countries. So basically it would still be the time to invest in companies exporting. More export means higher aggregate demand which stimulates your economy. However you will have to watch for the inflation because if it happens it could get pretty nasty considering that the average americans got so much debt and increasing the interest rate based on a restrictive moneraty policy at that moment would cause large amounts of personnal/corporate bankruptcies, etc.

Also considering all this like you said interest rates reached the true bottom not too long ago. They can only stay there or start going up in the short future. Under these circomstances, this means that bond prices will most likely go down. Interest rate risks are going to be there so basically reduce the duration of your bond's portfolio by choosing high yields/high YTM/low maturity and possibly add embedded bond features.

[DSteckler]

<< embedded bond features. >>

You meant embedded bond futures, not features...correct?

[Jim Smith]

A slowly falling dollar helps exporters, I understand that......But a plummetting buck does not help......Right now everyone is saying gold is rallying because the Indians want to carry their wealth around with them.....Maybe, but I get a sense as well that much of the world is fed up with US dollars, much like they're fed up with Tom Cruise.

[DSteckler]

<< embedded bond features. >>

You meant embedded bond futures, not features...correct?

Or did you mean features of imbedded bonds?

[Jim Smith]

CSCO was a giant wet bite out of my behind.....I really think John Chambers is setting the market up to over deliver in the next earnings report......Of course that's cold comfort for my options positions which took a bath.

[Jim Smith]

TLT....so far, about the only call I am getting right....Though ERS is moving too.....Raising my stake in the TLT looking for a test of double bottom resistance at $88

[EMphase]

<< embedded bond features. >>

You meant embedded bond futures, not features...correct?

I was referring to an embedded put feature inside a bond. "A put feature limits the downside price movements of a bond when interest rates rises; loosely speaking price will not fall below the put price. This leads to the conclusion that the value of the putable bond will be less sensitive to interest rate changes than an otherwise identical option-free bond."

[DSteckler]

That's what I thought you meant.

For those unfamiliar with the term, "embedded bond" refers to callable bonds, putable bonds, structured notes, convertibles, caps, and floors. The option feature is embedded into the bond.

[Tatnic]

When goog could not hold its last spike above $400, I sold my remaining shares. No regrets...after all, you can only fit so much shit into a 5 lb. bag. No way goog's market cap keeps expanding like the universe.

[Jim Smith]

JNJ breaking a 1+ year downtrend.....looks interesting to me

[DSteckler]

Resistance ahead at 61, Smitty, the 200DMA.

[Jim Smith]

Looking for the $TNX to test the breakout yield at 4.80% over the next three weeks....I believe we'll see the Dow make a move for its high at 11800.....

[Jim Smith]

IFO building a cup and handle.

[dmk112]

JNJ breaking a 1+ year downtrend.....looks interesting to me

I think this thing has bottomed, although would like to have that 2nd bottom come down further...we'll see... you long?

[Jim Smith]

JNJ....long here....In fact, I believe the drug group is turning....that MRK chart also shows promise......

[Jim Smith]

$tnx....well, trying to predict a countertrend rally is fraught with danger.....IE that call on the TLT of mine sucked out loud.....I am watching and playing the drug group because money can't leave the market entirely and these stocks don't need a strong economy to flourish.

[Jim Smith]

JNJ....also, both of the bottoms over the last several months held above the 200 week moving average .....couple that with the broken downtrend line and I believe we'll see $65......Goldman sachs said fair value was $70 today.....all of a sudden, JNJ is looking like a safe port in the storm.

[Jim Smith]

IFO.....I mentioned here Tuesday as a cup and handle forming.....it was up 9% Wednesday on a hugely crapy day.....

[wweeaazz]

Jim, still long INTC? Thanks

[Jim Smith]

INTC.....not long......

MRK looks good long ......

IFO was a 20% gainer in two days,,,I mentioned here Tuesday..
This market is about to implode.....

[Jim Smith]

Dell is getting a move up on earnings, this all about options expiration, IMO.....

AMD,,,,gets a bump, I'd sell it...

Look at the weekly chart on the Dow and draw some trendlines....there's 700 points of risk here.

[DSteckler]

I'm concerned about DELL's decision to aggressively cut prices.

[spikefader]

I'm concerned about DELL's decision to aggressively cut prices.So am I. I just bought a laptop from them jejeje

[diogenes]

I'm concerned about DELL's decision to aggressively cut prices.


They are going after the gaming market with a lot of focus, from what I understand.
M. Dell has talked with some members of the gaming community about what Dell needs to offer to make them their computers a viable gaming machine. So, that could work out very well for them.

[DSteckler]

They are going after the gaming market with a lot of focus, from what I understand.

That's why they purchased Alienware. It was cheaper to buy them then develop competing hardware (Alienware's systems were favored by gamers over the XPS systems).

[Jim Smith]

NKE is on the bottom of a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart.....could go either way

[Jim Smith]

NKE has broken a large symmetrical triangle......

[Jim Smith]

TLT....I was just a day or so early on this trade.....Looking for a move up to 87 into next week.....I think this will allow for a snap back rally in the equities.....But, it's just a short opportunity.

[diogenes]

That's why they purchased Alienware. It was cheaper to buy them then develop competing hardware (Alienware's systems were favored by gamers over the XPS systems).

I am not so certain about that, as Dell has been talking to gamers, too, well after the AW purchase.
I think that the AW purchase might have had more to do with a way to introduce the AMD chip into their systems, without trouble with Intel.
As we see a continued shift in the XPS system configurations and the fact that Dell seems to be very interested in reviews of the XPS system within the gaming community, I suspect that this is a two-pronged approach rather than leaving AW to deal with it alone.

Edit: Looks like Dell now has AMD chips.

[RL]

Jim good place to buy IFO?

[Jim Smith]

no good place to buy IFO......damn good place to short NKE.

[Jim Smith]

Geez o pete.......The nasdaq comp broke the trendline all the way back to 2002

[gerihearne]

Jim, do u still like motorola?

Cordially,
Geri

[Jim Smith]

MOT.....no....there are better bounce candidates ......going to study some charts Sunday and post in the evening......

[Jim Smith]

Gold stocks might be bounce candidates....going to watch GG...

In general, many indexes are in the weekly channel and can drop much more just to reach the bottom rail of their respective channels.....ie the dow jones.

[Jim Smith]

I still expect the 10 year treasury to reach 4.8% yield by the early part of June.....Dance around there for short period, then start heading higher into 6.5% by next summer.

[Jim Smith]

A few things telling me we're in trouble.....the RTH is breaking out a large symmetrical triangle which tells me the consumer is in trouble.....treasuries are getting a flight to quality bid, I thought at first this would help equities and that's not working....the Nasdaq comp is breaking a four year trendline....the Dow Jones is still not where it can bounce...the IWM broke back into the channel but is high on the channel still.....Look at LOW....nice projections and earnings yet new lows for the move.....this market is looking for a recession, IMO.

[Jim Smith]

IFO showing incredible relative strength.....when the indexes do bounce, IFO could explode to $30

[DSteckler]

Nice call on IFO.

[Jim Smith]

GOOG....long....bouncing off the 200 day after spending several days hugging it....This was a huge runner this time last year....

[gerihearne]

under 2.00 ...

glad you posted concerns about it .. i never got in

cordially,
geri

[Jim Smith]

CAMH...the industry is hated....GE is trying to do a back door on their patents....not all of the insurers have jumped on board for reimbursement....Doctors still have not adopted this test enmasse.....There's a lot of risk here.....I suspect its dead money for the summer now....Watch for any close above that double bottom at $2.11

[Jim Smith]

Not surprised the Dow Jones can't rally....We broke back into the weekly channel and we're too close to the top rail to rally much....There's no way we're going back into the accelerated phase so we have more downside ahead just to have room in the channel to rally back too.

[Jim Smith]

Nasd comp broke trendline back to October 2002....I consider this pretty major.

[Jim Smith]

It's jungle warfare at the moment.....Real hand to hand combat.....I've been happy taking down $600 to $800 a day with quick intraday trading.

[Jim Smith]

looking for $63.50

[Jim Smith]

Pull up a chart going back to April 1st 2005 and connect that high with the peaks in 2006....that downtrend was broken and recently tested with a little pullback to the mid $59s......I like this stock chart and it's a defensive play.

[Jim Smith]

The Dow Jones is too close to the top rail of the old weekly channel....Much of this oversold nature of the market will be relieved with sideways action into late June when we'll dive again into the Fed meeting.

[DSteckler]

JNJ stopped cold at its 200DMA.

[Tatnic]

JNJ stopped cold at its 200DMA.

sure is hard to get excited about a mega-cap pharma with a puny dividend. I might recommend it to my grandmother, but she's dead.

[Tatnic]

Pull up a chart going back to April 1st 2005 and connect that high with the peaks in 2006....that downtrend was broken and recently tested with a little pullback to the mid $59s......I like this stock chart and it's a defensive play.

Jim...I'm surprised at you. You've come up with much better plays than this. But I could be too impatient...its about time for the entire health care sector to come to the damn party.

[Jim Smith]

Mentioned this last week around $18.....

[Jim Smith]

It's up 8+ in this lousy market since I mentioned it and my thread is on the bottom of page two....LOL....what 's the use of posting????

[jiesen]

Jim,
Your picks rock! You are Awesome!!!

[spikefader]

...what 's the use of posting????I've heard therapy can help the frustration you feel. Maybe the new doc can recommend someone. jejeje

[RL]

Jim I think your picks are great. However My post #574 on your thread I ask If IFO was at a good place to buy your ans. on post #575 was no good place to buy IFO ?

[spikefader]

Jim I think your picks are great. However My post #574 on your thread I ask If IFO was at a good place to buy your ans. on post #575 was no good place to buy IFO ?lol now that's funny. Hey Jim, that's the problem with your thread, always has been. You don't give a specific buy/stop/target plan when you throw these 'pearls' into the air. No accountability or transparency.......just bragging and complaining when you don't get many responses. I think you would be sooo much more interesting to follow if you drilled down on specifics. I would be a very interested reader, and I'm sure others would too.

[Jim Smith]

My top pick for the rest of the week.

[Lyehopper]

Jim I think your picks are great. However My post #574 on your thread I ask If IFO was at a good place to buy your ans. on post #575 was no good place to buy IFO ?
You weren't supposed to remember that Ray!....lol

It's up 8+ in this lousy market since I mentioned it and my thread is on the bottom of page two....LOL....what 's the use of posting????

Hey Jimbo.... IIC mentioned PWEI on 10/31/05.... You could have bought it @around $8 back then. I didn't see anyone hoist him onto their shoulders and shout HAIL DEF!!!! HAIL DEF!!! or even give him a pat on the back for posting the pick.... Nor did I see him bitch and complain about it. I can refer you to dozens of similar examples of great plays being mentioned early on this forum. Have you noticed any of them?

http://img490.imageshack.us/img490/4707/pwei4bp.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Rob]

Jim, IFO was an awesome find. You should have played it on the POTW. Gary picked it 20 min. before the close on Tues. and is mopping up the board with us. He's up >18% as I write this.

[Jim Smith]

I mentioned the breakout in the low $20s.....in tripled in six weeks

[Jim Smith]

could fall to $28

[Rob]

Serves 'em right for publishing pornographic catalogs. lol

[Jim Smith]

Ray, I mention stocks here.....I was afraid of the volatility of the general market but IFO bucked it....I mention the stocks I like, now you want me to tell you exactly when to buy too? Dude, it was holding its 10 day moving average like a champ....You can make that decision on your own.

[spikefader]

Ray, I mention stocks here.....I was afraid of the volatility of the general market but IFO bucked it....I mention the stocks I like, now you want me to tell you exactly when to buy too? Dude, it was holding its 10 day moving average like a champ....You can make that decision on your own.I note your heading there Jim. It reads "Ray...WTF am I supposed to hold your hand too?". You just go from bad to worse dude. Consider your forehead flicked!

[Jim Smith]

We've got busted flag patterns all over the place.

Signs are pointing to the major indexes testing their October lows.

[Jim Smith]

It's going to gap down $2.....But this bear flag says it's going to $25.50, imo.

[Jim Smith]

Several days ago, I mentioned AACE here....getting taken out for $30 today.


recently I mentioned JNJ as a play .....it's moving counter to the market and should continue to do so.....

[Jim Smith]

I think Thursday's action could be weak so I want to take a look at CI as a buy on weakness Thursday.....My target is $105 over the next month.

[Jim Smith]

on Thursday......

[Jim Smith]

I don't care how many times they attempt to rally this thing, the bear flag formation says S&P 1190 here we come.

[Jim Smith]

I haven't seen such clear bear flag patterns like this since Sept of 2000.....

Stand to the side and don't even think about listening to James Cramer.

[Tatnic]

It's jungle warfare at the moment.....Real hand to hand combat.....I've been happy taking down $600 to $800 a day with quick intraday trading.

lol...me thinks you're bluffing. YOu forget we go way back.

I'd be willing to bet you loaded up on puts right when the naz touched 2100.

[Jim Smith]

I was doing quick trading because it felt like the market was becoming risk averse.....

Questioning my prior draconian posts.....the IWM can rally to 73 before it slams into the old weekly channel top....the next time down in late June should tell the tale....

[Jim Smith]

bought some preopen.....I am going to take a shot with the idea that the 100 day moving average will again prove to be important support.

[Jim Smith]

I guess that imported inflation number has everyone spooked.....Yield curve looks inverted....Oil stocks weak despite firmer commodity price.....are these two things pointing to an expected recession?

[Jim Smith]

There's a double bottom at $2.11......I believe Wellpoint is about to make a decision regarding reimbursement for this test........very good speculation, imo.....an officer recently received an option grant priced at $1.87.....

[Jim Smith]

I think it's worth taking a position here.....

[Jim Smith]

not saying it's time to jump aboard, but teh BBH is green all day.....aside from that , don't disregard these broken bear flags.....This could be September 2000 all over again.

[lemonjello]

Sept 2000 was down, right? Do you mean broken - bull - flags?

don't disregard these broken bear flags.....This could be September 2000 all over again.

[Rob]

I think it's worth taking a position here.....I was just taking a look at it, but darned if could tell what you're seeing in it. What am I missing?

[Jim Smith]

Ok, so there was this big runup on nasdaq that ended in March of 2000....This was followed by a big woosh down into mid May....that was followed by a countertrend rally into September of 2000.....That formed the big flag waving the wrong way on the weekly charts....the next break was horrific.

[Jim Smith]

CI is now looking like a big bear flag......The downside into October could be horrific like $57

[Jim Smith]

Currently short QQQQ, IWM, CI, BGC, WFT, DO...

[Jim Smith]

This stock is just starting to break down from a huge bear flag on the weekly chart....I've started a short position at $40.37.....My downside target is $17.

[Websman]

This stock is just starting to break down from a huge bear flag on the weekly chart....I've started a short position at $40.37.....My downside target is $17.

Nice short pick Jim. All the VTP indicators show this one going down. I may short IRF myself. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

[Jim Smith]

Now that's timely.....QCOM is sitting on a multiyear trendline and then out out of the blue, they come out with some positive news....I don't expect it to have a lasting affect, but these guys get and A for effort.

[Jim Smith]

But the problem is not earnings but rather what the market wants to pay for earnings....with a rising rate environment, the market wants to pay less.....This is a secular bear market characterized by falling PE ratios, IMO.

[Jim Smith]

I am now just looking for stocks that have points that can be given up

[lemonjello]

Didn't NKE chart break down a few days ago and then they come out with the AAPL NKE agreement which popped the stock right on schedule to roast some people? Naw, they don't look at charts.

Now that's timely.....QCOM is sitting on a multiyear trendline and then out out of the blue, they come out with some positive news....I don't expect it to have a lasting affect, but these guys get and A for effort.

[Jim Smith]

Started new short positions in WLP, IWS and CLX

[wweeaazz]

Jim,

What you think 10,000-10,500 between now and Sept. ?

[Jim Smith]

The top of the old channel is 11200....It seems to be dancing with the 40 week moving average right now.....Real curious about today's volume at the close....this feels like a counter trend rally.....

[Jim Smith]

I am full of them lately......The Dow trades in a range with the recent lows holding and 11200 acting as resistance......here's the issue, there's so much money floating around, where's it going to go? It won't go to bonds as they're heading south....It won't go back to realestate anytime soon....so, we're left with equities and Picasso paintings......I am a big fan of Picasso's rose period.....

[Jim Smith]

as good a place as any to stop the advance....I bet we revisit the lows going into the Fed meeting.....but since everyone knows what the Fed is going to do, it may be anticlimactic allowing the markets to rally again after the meeting.

[wweeaazz]

Just curious, thanks...

[Jim Smith]

I need to clear my head.....and play some poker.

[Jim Smith]

this IFO was such a blow up that when I mentioned it as a buy potential you needed asbestos gloves to touch it....Yeah, it doubled from when I first mentioned it but look at it now....a real massacre....Look, I'll point them out...But I am watching this tape like a hawk and I didn't feel comfortable with the market volatility to say buy buy buy.....You can't shoot the messenger, unless he's Homer, aka Garbo. Ok, so lets look at longs.....how about SSRI or LM? These are on my watch list.....CAMH might just make us all rich but lets wait till $2.11 is taken out....Shorts, just about everything else going into June 29.....:cool:

[Jim Smith]

this is another long I like

[Rob]

Shorts, just about everything else going into June 29.....:cool:I hope you're wrong, but I don't have any evidence to the contrary.

I bought a bunch of LIFC for 4.75 in 2000, got tired of it and dumped it. That's what impatience got me.

[RL]

Jim do you think DXPE Is dead In the water or can It get back to the $40's? I made good on your sugestion of It.

[Jim Smith]

easier to call to make given Monday's weak opening for DXPE

[Jim Smith]

we need to watch this....I believe this stock drops to $30 by late summer...


also, LIFC was a nifty call made here three days ago...I believe it's played out now.

[Jim Smith]

Next week.

[Jim Smith]

could breakout and jump 8+ points

[Websman]

could breakout and jump 8+ points

looks like it made a decent move today.

[Jim Smith]

Looking for possible move to 1238 Friday.

[Jim Smith]

this could fly

[Websman]

this could fly

setting up right now...

[Websman]

setting up right now...

Hmmm....watch her drop. Buying opportunity coming soon.

[Websman]

Hmmm....watch her drop. Buying opportunity coming soon.

But not yet...she's dropping like a rock!

[Rob]

this could flyClick here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?p=56008) for some cool TZOO charts.

[peanuts]

Looking for possible move to 1238 Friday.

COMPQ is holding 13 day moving avg chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=5&id=p59780901539)
SPX is holding 13 day moving avg chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=5&id=p59780901539)
INDU is holding 150 day moving avg chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=5&id=p59780901539)

If these are held at the end of the day, I think we'll be OK for Friday



Chuck Norris owns the greatest poker face of all time. It helped him to win the 1983 Wolrd Series of Poker despite him just holding a Joker, a Get Out of Jail Free Monopoly card, a 2 of clubs, a 7 of spades, and a green #4 Uno card.

[Jim Smith]

Another play brought to you by Jim's cycle trades.

[jiesen]

thanks, Jim! you're awesome!

[IIC]

Another play brought to you by Jim's cycle trades.


Nice call Jim...Doug(IIC)

[spikefader]

Another play brought to you by Jim's cycle trades.Better late than never jejejeje
http://technicaltrading.phpnet.us/technicalanalysis/?p=51

[Jim Smith]

From the close of the week before the July 4th holiday through the end of july 2002, the S&P lost 21.6%......I am seeing a lot of busted bear flag patterns screaming caution: LM for one.

[wweeaazz]

Followed your short rec. on this one. Paying off, thanks. You've been awfully quiet...

[Jim Smith]

watch for SHFL top possibly test its 50 day ma next week.

[Jim Smith]

buy on weakness......damn, damn, damn, I had this on my watch list cuz it was snuggling up to the 30 day ema.....now it's above it on great volume...I am buying weakness as I believe this is a $100 stock in August.

[Jim Smith]

The guys I read that are looking for a plunge in the market don't answer one question, where does all the money go? Bond prices should continue to suffer. Realestate looks played out with higher rates. We have an excess liquidity issue here. My intuition is that there's a higher floor on this market than the doom and gloomers think. But, I can't advocate indexing. I think you'll find individual stocks that can soar. I would avoid consumer stocks, look what happened to NKE and ANF....Companies are awash in cash so suppliers to companies or countries like China and India are good. ...Just look at CLF. Tech is toast cuz I don't see the next hot thing ala Ipod. But China's oil demand is insatiable. Energy is hot going to get hotter. XOM is awash in cash, watch for acquisitions. I think the main theme is anti consumer pro industrial consumption.

[peanuts]

The guys I read that are looking for a plunge in the market don't answer one question, where does all the money go? Bond prices should continue to suffer. Realestate looks played out with higher rates. We have an excess liquidity issue here. My intuition is that there's a higher floor on this market than the doom and gloomers think. But, I can't advocate indexing. I think you'll find individual stocks that can soar. I would avoid consumer stocks, look what happened to NKE and ANF....Companies are awash in cash so suppliers to companies or countries like China and India are good. ...Just look at CLF. Tech is toast cuz I don't see the next hot thing ala Ipod. But China's oil demand is insatiable. Energy is hot going to get hotter. XOM is awash in cash, watch for acquisitions. I think the main theme is anti consumer pro industrial consumption.

Jim,

This is one of your best posts ever. Industrials and the companies that service them are the places to put your money... no matter what Lye tells you, Steel is a good place to be.


If you stare directly into the sun, you will have severe eye problems for life. If you stare directly at Chuck Norris, it will bring you death.

[Jim Smith]

MTWA heart test to be covered by Cigna. Announced 5:57 pm est

[DSteckler]

<< The guys I read that are looking for a plunge in the market don't answer one question, where does all the money go? >>

On the sidelines in cash. Money market rates aren't bad for a short-term holding.

[Jim Smith]

Kissing off the 50 day sma again....retail looks iffy except for JCP.....

[Jim Smith]

ANF in meltdown mode


CAMH gapping above a three month downtrend on good volume....I think you buy some of this and put it away.....I think this is a 10x winner.


Oh, and shorting ZUMZ was a baaaad call on my part....

[wweeaazz]

Thanks for the heads up. Out IRF @ 38.04 in SHFL @ 31.82

[Jim Smith]

I reserve the right to change my mind......Actually, I've alluded to the idea that this is a liquidity driven market.....Start believing in the devine right of money cuz one of the things I did pick up from my MBA program was a lot of money makes the price of other things go up. Money is the only thing that matters....


PS.... I believe IBD will say this was a follow through day validating the bull market.

[Jim Smith]

ICE: could be a cup and handle with 10 points upside
SPSX: I believe this gets back to $35 near term
CLF: I want to get back in on a test of the 50 day moving average.
BBH: Next sector to run?
DNA: A leader
CELG: broke out and ready to roll
CAMH: Time to build positions
OIH: Long and want to get longer
GSF: looking for a move to $65 over the next month.

[Jim Smith]

no group shall be left behind......it's time to load up

[Tatnic]

Smitty said:
<no group shall be left behind......it's time to load up>

Been waiting for the bios and other health care stuff to kick in. From what I understand, this is the time of year they normally start perking up. So I agree and anticipate a sharp rally up for the next 6 to 8 weeks. Out of the money august bbh calls look good on that assumption.

[Jim Smith]

definitely worth watching for a long side play....I am long the Amgen August 65 calls.

[billyjoe]

I bought CAMH late last week.....16000 shares felt large when the bear flag occurred.....but my friend at Merrill convinced me that on the weekly chart, nothing bad had occurred. And he was right.....but, 16000 shares in such a relatively illiquid stock felt like too much.....so I bought 5000......I am going to watch the response to the CAMH earnings....I may buy back 10,000 shares today.

Jim,
There are several posts on the IBD forums today under "another new pick by Mr.Market" with the above quote and no mention of Jim Smith. The quote is apparently attributed to Mr.Market and has his link at the bottom.
-------billyjoe

[IIC]

Jim,
There are several posts on the IBD forums today under "another new pick by Mr.Market" with the above quote and no mention of Jim Smith. The quote is apparently attributed to Mr.Market and has his link at the bottom.
-------billyjoe


Well...I can't find it...Where is it?

[IIC]

Nevermind...I knew I'd find it once I posted that I couldn't find it...IIC

[jiesen]

DNA: A leader
CELG: broke out and ready to roll
CAMH: Time to build positions


Hey Jim,

Your CAMH pick interests me. Can you do me (and all other interested lurkers here) a favor and give me your most thorough fundamental breakdown of this company, and compare the analysis to the same for XKEM and LJPC? I'm especially interested in your opinion w/r/t market cap vs assets, cash, current and potential income. The reason I mention these two are that LJPC is now my largest holding, and though I don't own any XKEM, I've been looking at it lately, and now regret not picking some up at 0.03 a while back, and at 0.05 last week even. I don't want to make the same mistake with CAMH, but can't as of yet justify the $100M+ market cap on such a meager income. It does look more interesting at the sub-$1 range though... I like this sector and the high flyers especially are fun to get into, but it's tough to really value these guys.

BTW, I agree with you about DNA, but I think CELG is getting to be overvalued now.

[IIC]

Oh thanks Billy...the first thing I see is a post by Louetta...One of my least favorite people on the Net...Forget her investing acumen...I have no idea if she's good or not...And I don't care...She goes around bashing people that she knows nothing about...Just like some others....At least I only bash people that I know something about.

Now I understand why my thread got so many page views today...Doug(IIC)

[billyjoe]

Doug,
I had forgotten about Louetta. Didn't it turn out that "she" was a 19 year old guy claiming to have decades of investing experience?

---------billyjoe

[IIC]

Doug,
I had forgotten about Louetta. Didn't it turn out that "she" was a 19 year old guy claiming to have decades of investing experience?

---------billyjoe

I don't know...But IMO she'd make a perfect wife for Homer...They could sit around all night tryin' to determine which one of them is the Biggest Sucker...IIC

PS: I'll bet anybody 20 bux that they can't come up w/ the post that made me dislike her so much (Email me the answer by 7/4/06 at 7am PDT or the quiz and 20 bux is closed)...In fact, I'll bet she couldn't either...I'll even give her a clue...It wasn't at IBD Forums...It was directed at me...And it was BS...Not that I am one to harbor ill feelings...But there is an old Mafioso saying that does apply to me..."The Bastards Never Forget"...One last clue...It was in 2004...Good Luck for the 20 bux...IIC

[skiracer]

I don't know...But IMO she'd make a perfect wife for Homer...They could sit around all night tryin' to determine which one of them is the Biggest Sucker...IIC

PS: I'll bet anybody 20 bux that they can't come up w/ the post that made me dislike her so much (Email me the answer by 7/4/06 at 7am PDT or the quiz and 20 bux is closed)...In fact, I'll bet she couldn't either...I'll even give her a clue...It wasn't at IBD Forums...It was directed at me...And it was BS...Not that I am one to harbor ill feelings...But there is an old Mafioso saying that does apply to me..."The Bastards Never Forget"...One last clue...It was in 2004...Good Luck for the 20 bux...IIC

I think the direct saying is, "Sicilians never forget (a grudge), being that the whole organized thing orginated in Sicily with the Sicilians.

I knew Louetta while I was at the IBD boards. She was definitely a woman. In fact her father worked in the industry with a large brokerage firm and she was doing an internship with that company while she went to college somewhere in the Philadelphia area. Actually she was pretty up on the stocks an investing in general having grown up in the community because of her fathers job.
She did have a nasty disposition at times an had a running battle with Poorman for quite a time before they worked things out and became friends or at least put up with one another. I remember she wouldn't enable anyone if she knew or felt they were wrong and would never compromise her feelings when she knew she was right. I always felt she was pretty decent an above board. What I liked best about her was her biting sarcasm. Perhaps a bit more pointed than yours Doug if that's imaginable. Maybe that's why you two couldn't put up with one another. Two alike signs will always repel.

[IIC]

I think the direct saying is, "Sicilians never forget (a grudge), being that the whole organized thing orginated in Sicily with the Sicilians.

I knew Louetta while I was at the IBD boards. She was definitely a woman. In fact her father worked in the industry with a large brokerage firm and she was doing an internship with that company while she went to college somewhere in the Philadelphia area. Actually she was pretty up on the stocks an investing in general having grown up in the community because of her fathers job.
She did have a nasty disposition at times an had a running battle with Poorman for quite a time before they worked things out and became friends or at least put up with one another. I remember she wouldn't enable anyone if she knew or felt they were wrong and would never compromise her feelings when she knew she was right. I always felt she was pretty decent an above board. What I liked best about her was her biting sarcasm. Perhaps a bit more pointed than yours Doug if that's imaginable. Maybe that's why you two couldn't put up with one another. Two alike signs will always repel.

Well Ski...I see your name is mentioned in at least one post over there...Maybe I'm jealous that mine wasn't...LOL

But it really has nothing to do with that...She posted something on another forum back in early 2004 to the effect that people better watch out for me because I had an ulterior motive to screw people over...That's not exactly what she said...But something to that effect...I'd like to invite anyone and everyone to post anything I said in the past 8 years on the Net which could be remotely construed as something that would SCREW PEOPLE OVER...

I don't think that anyone could do that...Not even her...Maybe you are right...biting sarcasm...I'll battle her any day on that front...Father in the Business???...What does that have to do with her?...If you only knew.

Two alike signs???...The day I admit that she is in my league is the day I give it up...Doug

[skiracer]

Well Ski...I see your name is mentioned in at least one post over there...Maybe I'm jealous that mine wasn't...LOL

But it really has nothing to do with that...She posted something on another forum back in early 2004 to the effect that people better watch out for me because I had an ulterior motive to screw people over...That's not exactly what she said...But something to that effect...I'd like to invite anyone and everyone to post anything I said in the past 8 years on the Net which could be remotely construed as something that would SCREW PEOPLE OVER...

I don't think that anyone could do that...Not even her...Maybe you are right...biting sarcasm...I'll battle her any day on that front...Father in the Business???...What does that have to do with her?...If you only knew.

Two alike signs???...The day I admit that she is in my league is the day I give it up...Doug

The point I was trying to make is how two positive or negative signs will repel from one another while a positive and negative will attract one another. I didn't mean anything by it. Just yoking.
Actually I thought she was pretty decent at picking timely stocks. I really didn't know her that well being that we never slept together. I just liked her take no shit attitude and her sarcasm. BTW what site are you guys talking about that my name was mentioned. And I never said nor implied that she was in your league with the comment about alike signs. I was leaning more towards opposites attract and visa versa.

[IIC]

The point I was trying to make is how two positive or negative signs will repel from one another while a positive and negative will attract one another. I didn't mean anything by it. Just yoking.
Actually I thought she was pretty decent at picking timely stocks. I really didn't know her that well being that we never slept together. I just liked her take no shit attitude and her sarcasm. BTW what site are you guys talking about that my name was mentioned. And I never said nor implied that she was in your league with the comment about alike signs. I was leaning more towards opposites attract and visa versa.

I saw your name mentioned at IBD Forums on the links suggested by Billy...But it really doesn't matter...And I hardly take offense.

True...they say opposites attract...If people are the same then they compete I guess....Yes...I agree that she is pretty good at sarcasm...I have no idea if she is a good investor or not because I never paid attention to anything she ever said except when she warned people to watch out for me...That was BS...I may not be the nicest guy around...But I am an upfront...honest guy...Take it or leave it...I speak my mind....She does not like people who say what they think...Unless they agree with her...So you see...We are very different

[IIC]

Ski....Here is the post that mentioned you:

Kat, MrMarket was banned from the forums by IBD. But his web site is quite interesting and free. Some of the oldtimers from this forum post there now (e.g., skiracer et al.), along with others that are very knowledgable. There is a wealth of information provided by the posters there so I tend to check it pretty frequently for new ideas.


Barb

[jiesen]

holy cow, look at that little monkey go!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CAMH.OB&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

[Jim Smith]

the downtrend was broken on a gap on very good volume....my friend from Merrill Lynch said his client with 80,000 shares was looking for the all time highs by year's end.....that's $15+.....and take that for what it's worth...but, the stock is acting well.

[jiesen]

though it's not making me any money, I must thank you for putting CAMH out there... it does indeed rock!

wish I could figure out what will make it worth $15+/shr, because I would sure like a piece of that action. For now, though, I'll probably be staying put.

[IIC]

the downtrend was broken on a gap on very good volume....my friend from Merrill Lynch said his client with 80,000 shares was looking for the all time highs by year's end.....that's $15+.....and take that for what it's worth...but, the stock is acting well.


Why does he think that?...IIC

[Jim Smith]

Go to Ragingbull.com and type in CAMH....those guys have all the news....it's way too technical for me.....but they developed a heart test that recently won approval for reimbursement from medicare and aetna and now cigna....as these HMOs get on board, the doctors will buy the $30K machine and the $70 consumeables per patient....there's lots of doctors out there that will buy....sales will ramp IMO going forward.

[Jim Smith]

long....I think this could takeoff towards $35....

[jiesen]

Go to Ragingbull.com and type in CAMH....those guys have all the news....it's way too technical for me.....but they developed a heart test that recently won approval for reimbursement from medicare and aetna and now cigna....as these HMOs get on board, the doctors will buy the $30K machine and the $70 consumeables per patient....there's lots of doctors out there that will buy....sales will ramp IMO going forward.

ok, well thanks for the tip! I'll definitely look into it on the RB board.

[DSteckler]

the downtrend was broken on a gap on very good volume....my friend from Merrill Lynch said his client with 80,000 shares was looking for the all time highs by year's end.....that's $15+.....and take that for what it's worth...but, the stock is acting well.

Sorry but barring a buyout, I can't see it.

[Jim Smith]

things seem to be falling apart here.

[peanuts]

things seem to be falling apart here.

Jim, you are too funny... your six hundredth and sixty sixth post is about SPX going to 1000.... ha ha ha ho hiccup hehehe ssSSsssSSsss

didn't you see that Lye mounted the bull again?

[Jim Smith]

looks good

[billyjoe]

Jim,
Are they bottom feeders ? MWY has lost 57.13% of it's value since Jan.3rd , dropping from 18.87 to 8.09 as of last Friday.

------------billyjoe

[Jim Smith]

If we're heading for SPX 1000, it probably isn't anytime soon....withdrawling earlier call.....

[Jim Smith]

pardon the pun.....MWY doesn't interest me

[Jim Smith]

Looks like it broke above the neckline....could have 10 to 11 points upside.

[Jim Smith]

enormous short interest being taken out and shot

[IIC]

enormous short interest being taken out and shot


TZOO is # 59 on the IIC 100

[Jim Smith]

through the 200 day ma.....long

[Jim Smith]

long DNA and CEPH

[DSteckler]

Looks like it broke above the neckline....could have 10 to 11 points upside.

Broke above it a few days ago but the bias is shifting towards a pullback.

[Jim Smith]

this stock has gone on nice runs starting in early July in 2002, 2004 and 2005......In 2003 is was caught near a top......Which way will 2006 go for AMGN? The BBH broke a downtrend back to December....I am watching AMGN closely.

[Jim Smith]

watched as the S&P held 1270......I think we can rally firmly.....also, long AMGN and DNA

[Jim Smith]

The weekly dow chart shows we rallied back up to top rail resistance......Took profits in DNA and closed AMGN for now.....only long CAMH for now.....had a great morning.

[Jim Smith]

ARE, UNH, MDT, CAMH, ALL, MET, STA, SPG.......long CAMH

[Jim Smith]

Humana agrees to pay for CAMH's heart test today.....CAMH hires a VP of sales and marketing yesterday....Now they're looking to hire a manager of accounts receivable in anticipation of greater sales.....It's time to get on board.

[Jim Smith]

broken bear flag....see DJI heading to bottom rail on weekly chart, fast.

[Jim Smith]

CEPH is acting so well....looking for $76 near term.

[wweeaazz]

NGAS looks good here i think. Does this fit your criteria for a cycle trade? Considering what it has done in the past from July through the end of year?

[Jim Smith]

I would not touch NGAS


I am short LRCX and CCJ.......long CAMH

[Jim Smith]

could have 10 points of downside.

[Jim Smith]

Target $27.50....Earnings mid day Wednesday.....I am short.

[Jim Smith]

I normally don't trade these but this has a very interesting story....Sales staff is ramping as HMOs approve reimbursement for the test.....

[Jim Smith]

looks like a huge H/S breakout.

[mrmarket]

I normally don't trade these but this has a very interesting story....Sales staff is ramping as HMOs approve reimbursement for the test.....

I've owned CAMH before and like it.

[Jim Smith]

Mentioned MRK long and LRCX short last week.....

[New-born baby]

Mentioned MRK long and LRCX short last week.....

LRCX: busted neck on head and shoulders top targets $34. Textbook perfect formation, neckline busted on volume. Excellent call. A real pearl.
http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/2369/chart1dy3.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[peanuts]

Mentioned MRK long and LRCX short last week.....

Thank you, Jim. What do you think of the possibilities that the action in LRCX was just a gap fill and the price may stabilize here, or even go up?

[Lyehopper]

Thank you, Jim. What do you think of the possibilities that the action in LRCX was just a gap fill and the price may stabilize here, or even go up?
Peanuts.... Posting a (marked up) chart with that would have been very nice....;)

[peanuts]

Peanuts.... Posting a (marked up) chart with that would have been very nice....;)

must I do EVERYTHING!?!? Fine, have it your way:

http://img122.imageshack.us/img122/4807/lrcxchartrw8.png

I even added a squigly comment... I just love to see those

[Jim Smith]

Loving the action here.....this is a longer term hold....

[Jim Smith]

long AMGN today

[Jim Smith]

MRK: I am looking for $49 by Thanksgiving
GRB: I think it can get back to its all time high early 2007
CAMH: Ditto on the all time high early 2007
AMGN: I have a $74 target mid August then higher in October
GLG: I like gold

[Jim Smith]

huge pennant formation....Breaking to the downside in after hours trading....measures down to around $54

[Jim Smith]

a bragging thread is more active.....sheesh


AMGN tested is broken downtrend dating back to Nov 2005 yesterday.
ISRG broke a huge symmetrical triangle to the downside yesterday
CHK is moving up from a head and shoulders bottom target is $35.70

[Jim Smith]

MHK has a negative DMI around 40....over the last five years, whenever the DMI negative reached this level, the stock rallied, somethimes 50%

[Rob]

Interesting way to look at the DMI, Jim. At any rate, great find on MHK this morning! It's up 8.5% right now as I'm looking at it.

[Jim Smith]

long.....there's some insider buying reported today as well

[Jim Smith]

for hip replacements....nothing new but USA Today helping the story go mainstream....also, medicare will take a break from cramming cuts down hospitals throats, it's an election year you know.....ZMH and SYK will roll

[peanuts]

http://img122.imageshack.us/img122/4807/lrcxchartrw8.png

I even added a squigly comment... I just love to see those

Got out of LRCX at 40.45 today. It may test 13 day MA at 40.83 and fall, so I'll take what I've got.

Thanks, Jim, I wouldn't have traded this if you didn't post. The squiglies never lie.

[mimo_100]

MHK has a negative DMI around 40....over the last five years, whenever the DMI negative reached this level, the stock rallied, somethimes 50%


I charted MHK and looked at the DMI (using stockcharts Wilder DMI)
It appears to spend most of its time below 40. What are you referring to?:)

Thanks.

Tim

[Jim Smith]

MHK negative DMI doesn't touch 40 exactly....Use the relative level compared to other peaks over the last several years.....They all have led to rallies.

[Jim Smith]

$45.35 breakout today.....this one has a long way to go

[DSteckler]

$45.35 breakout today.....this one has a long way to go

Extremely low volume, low ADX, and an overbought stochastic suggests the breakout is not sustainable. The last two times SYK rose above its 200DMA (January and March) it fell back below a few days later.

[Jim Smith]

watching for a throw back to the neckline of the head and shoulders bottom pattern.....I will be buying on the test.

[Lyehopper]

watching for a throw back to the neckline of the head and shoulders bottom pattern.....I will be buying on the test.
What are you talking about Jim?.... A "head and shoulders bottom pattern"?.... Are you looking at the intraday? What?.... A two day chart showing a left Shoulder yesterday?.... The head today.... And speculating where a neck line may form for a right shoulder?

Damn! it would be nice if you would post a chart with these comments dude.... It only takes a couple of minutes.

http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/1972/mrklr9.png (http://imageshack.us)

[DSteckler]

You just charted a H&S top, Lye, not a H&S bottom.

[Lyehopper]

You just charted a H&S top, Lye, not a H&S bottom.
Yeah I know Dave.... That's why I'm questioning Jim.... I see MRK no where close to testing an inverted SHS bottom. I thought maybe he made a mistake in his terminology or something. What? Is he targeting $37?.... If so, why not say so?

[Jim Smith]

Not MRK's intraday chart.....the weekly chart shows a H/S bottom breaking out at $37.50

[DSteckler]

Not MRK's intraday chart.....the weekly chart shows a H/S bottom breaking out at $37.50

I see it now. Looks like MRK stalled at the 200-week MA.

[Jim Smith]

But....the throw back I am looking for doesn't happen yet.....I'd be making a ton except for my Don Qixote immitation....I suspect many are fighting personal demons here. Tough tape.

[Jim Smith]

when the negative DMI on the weekly chart was as such a high level in the past, but bull move was huge....Oct 1998 the move was 88% up....July 2002, the move was 57% up....

[Lyehopper]

But....the throw back I am looking for doesn't happen yet.....I'd be making a ton except for my Don Qixote immitation....I suspect many are fighting personal demons here. Tough tape.
Actually I'm just trying to understand your cryptic posts Jim. You talked earlier about nobody posting on your thread.... yet some of your posts don't mean anything to anyone but you.... btw, I always read your thread and I think you're a good trader.... You just confuse me sometimes.

So explain the "throwback you're looking for"....

[Jim Smith]

there's a triple top on the weekly chart....the ultimate target has not been reached on the downside....if this triple top fails with a move above 74, the upside should be huge....I am going to give another 4 points away in hopes of a safer entry later.

[Jim Smith]

H/S continuation pattern in the making....waiting for $37 to get taken out.

[Jim Smith]

at 37.50.....that's on the weekly chart....first however, I feel the stock rips higher to $46.50 by mid August, then the throwback or pullback to the neckline into late September....then the final high at 49 around Thanksgiving.

[Jim Smith]

I think this stock is bullish right here and now.

[Jim Smith]

my timing is off.....therefore, with the possible exception of posts about AMGN and CAMH, all discussions on this thread about stocks must be considered total BS.

[Lyehopper]

my timing is off.....therefore, with the possible exception of posts about AMGN and CAMH, all discussions on this thread about stocks must be considered total BS.
LOL!.... confusing or not.... at least you're honest Jim.... :p

Short sellers are creating these wild swings I think.... Look at GEHL today for an example, the pop to 20% was driven by short covering.... Notice GEHL's short interest has been increasing month over month. There's some fast money to be made on well timed trades right now imo....

[wweeaazz]

[QUOTE=Jim Smith]I would not touch NGAS

Glad i touched it. So far at least...

[wweeaazz]

Just wondering if anyone has heard from Jim? I check this thread often and he has been gone for quite awhile.

[DSteckler]

He's fine.

[Jim Smith]

stock showing decent strength here.....SYK and ZMH are still acting well....CAMH acting poorly lately......However, I am all cash or daytrading when the opportunity presents itself....There's not much to post about and likely won't be till November.

[Jim Smith]

BTU looks to have completed a five wave pattern down....currently stuck under the 200 day ma, this is now on my watch list....also, ACI has also completed the 5 waves.

[New-born baby]

BTU looks to have completed a five wave pattern down....currently stuck under the 200 day ma, this is now on my watch list....also, ACI has also completed the 5 waves.


BTU and ACI: what would constitute a buy signal for you?

[Jim Smith]

I need to see the stock trade above the 200 day ma

[New-born baby]

I need to see the stock trade above the 200 day ma

Thanks, Jim :D

[Jim Smith]

eve and adam double bottom

[Jim Smith]

big H/S bottom on weekly.....I think it can make $33 in late January.

[Jim Smith]

20 points off the highs.....largest of the casino operators.

[Rob]

Good eye, Jim. Interesting charts.

http://img82.imageshack.us/img82/5648/bah1.png (http://imageshack.us)

http://img82.imageshack.us/img82/6703/aqh6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Jim Smith]

look at the weekly chart.....when ARO reacquired it's megaphone pattern, it rallied 63% of the megaphones widest part.....I put a number on BDK at $90 based on ARO's experience.

[Jim Smith]

shoulder from December 2004 at 86

[Jim Smith]

BDK is working on becoming a busted pattern.....these busted patterns are great performers.

[Jim Smith]

that's my bet......sometime in October.

[spikefader]

look at the weekly chart.....when ARO reacquired it's megaphone pattern, it rallied 63% of the megaphones widest part.....I put a number on BDK at $90 based on ARO's experience.shoulder from December 2004 at 86BDK is working on becoming a busted pattern.....these busted patterns are great performers.
My thoughts on BDK:
http://www.technicaltrades.net/2006/08/15/bdk-stalk-the-short/

[Jim Smith]

but, when those patterns fail like ARO did, wow, the profit was enormous....busted patterns often provide the best profit opportunities.

[Jim Smith]

there are so many chart readers these days I think the busted patterns are going to provide the best profits going forward.....ie, H/S patterns are obvious and therefore often doomed to failure....I think many folks give up on a chart once the pattern doesn't seem to play out as expected.....However, if they played the pattern failure, I think they'd ring the register with nice gains.


BDK got a new buy from Deutche bank today....looking forward to how it trades since it's between strikes and just a hair under the lower rail of the weekly symmetrical chart pattern.

[Jim Smith]

I think their numbers don't justify this selloff despite delivering less than a full earnings report....

[Jim Smith]

Looks to have closed a hair above the top descending rail....Lots of housing related data this week along with LOW earnings Monday....MHK could be ready for a 15% rally near term.....

[skiracer]

there are so many chart readers these days I think the busted patterns are going to provide the best profits going forward.....ie, H/S patterns are obvious and therefore often doomed to failure....I think many folks give up on a chart once the pattern doesn't seem to play out as expected.....However, if they played the pattern failure, I think they'd ring the register with nice gains.


BDK got a new buy from Deutche bank today....looking forward to how it trades since it's between strikes and just a hair under the lower rail of the weekly symmetrical chart pattern.

Sometimes it's hard to see the forest for the trees but that's a great idea about looking for the busted out patterns.

[Jim Smith]

The OEX simply ran out of gas when it reached the top rail on the weekly chart....The OEX was a relative strength leader....The dates of the rally match up with what occurred in July/August 2002.....Will September 2006 be a repeat of Sept 2002? There's plenty on the plate to worry about such as the middle east, oil and housing.....Can the market rally on worry alone? Yeah, if we were'nt over bought to begin with.....On the look out for a potentially horrific September selloff.

[Jim Smith]

increasing volume too

[Jim Smith]

early 2007

[skiracer]

early 2007

Jim,
I like gold to go to $700. I'm holding the ETF from $46 and just holding. $800 would be real nice. What are your thoughts on making it go to $800?

[Jim Smith]

I am using the 2005 chart and extrapolating......if we move the same % from now till Q1 2007, we'll be at $800.....the GLD is in a huge symmetrical triangle....I expect an upside breakout....The big move likely to occur when the fed reserve lowers interest rates to save the markets.....inflation be damned, the fed doesn't care.

[skiracer]

I am using the 2005 chart and extrapolating......if we move the same % from now till Q1 2007, we'll be at $800.....the GLD is in a huge symmetrical triangle....I expect an upside breakout....The big move likely to occur when the fed reserve lowers interest rates to save the markets.....inflation be damned, the fed doesn't care.

Interesting scenario. Lowering the interest rates to boost the markets again. How low do you think they will have to move down from todays levels.

[Jim Smith]

And the long bond will rise in rate......I actually expect gold to reach $1000 within 12 months.

[ParkTwain]

Until the gains in the Chinese economy begin to raise wage rates there (and that may some number of years in coming), there is deflationary pressure on wages and prices worldwide. THAT is why the Fed and all the other OECD-type central bankers will tend to be lowering rates for the foreseeable future. The Fed doesn't want to see to much of any kind of a recession in the U.S. because of what it could do to domestic price stability.

[Jim Smith]

they'll just monkey around with the measurement devices to show no inflation....In reality, we need to inflate our way out of debt...Or ask each US citizen to pony up $30K+ for our debt, forget that idea....So, they take the dough out the back door through inflation. The casino stocks, specifically domestic only or non Asia exposed, are acting like there's a consumer led recession coming....These stocks are actually quasi retail stocks, the ultimate retailer preying on the disposable incomes of the average consumer....

[peanuts]

...The casino stocks, specifically domestic only or non Asia exposed, are acting like there's a consumer led recession coming....These stocks are actually quasi retail stocks, the ultimate retailer preying on the disposable incomes of the average consumer....

Now THAT is an interesting way to look at domestic casino stocks. I like it- it makes sense. Did you read this somewhere, or think of it on your own? Do you know of any comparisons of past performance of domestic casino stocks and the condition of the US economy? Maybe some graphical examples? I think you're on to something, here. One thing, however, does having disposable income necessarily mean that it is going to casinos? I wonder what the disposable income/gambling revenue curve would look like...

Or even this thought: when the economy is bad, income isn't as "disposable," so people make better bets, and gambling revenue is down...

[Jim Smith]

The casino as retailer is my idea but I don't see it as that profound. And, gambling is addictive for many so for people to give up gambling they must be experiencing a crimp in the budget....HET looks to be headed to $50 where I would buy with both hands.....Some like PENN might really feel the crimp as their Argosy in Lawrenceburg Indiana isn't exactly a vacation destination in of itself. Vegas might feel near term heat with their local realestate market skidding. PENN has a giant boat coming to Indiana in 2008 so their expenses are climbing at a time the "drop" might be declining.

[Jim Smith]

guidelines now support the use of MTWA as a risk stratifier....the CEO believes this will bring the rest of the HMO's on board for reimbursement.

[Jim Smith]

guideline by AHS says MTWA test could be used as a risk stratifier identifying sudden cardiac death patients.

[Jim Smith]

I think domestic only gaming takes a hit near term.

[Jim Smith]

the OEX can't breakout and I suspect it won't....but, PENN doesn't want to go down so I am not forcing the issue.

[Jim Smith]

worth watching......no position.

[Jim Smith]

my biggest position


also, took WFR long on morning weakness.

[Jim Smith]

with a name like smuckers, it has to be good.

[Jim Smith]

no b/o yet, but worth watching....


My seasonality model projects that the OEX will fall to 593 this week....I have been day trading OEX puts with success last two days.


CAMH looks to have a little triple top formed over the last few weeks...I think there's a chance CAMH will move down to $2 and it better hold $1.95....No buys recommended without a close north of $2.60....

[Jim Smith]

long at 5.40.....target is 593

[Jim Smith]

EWZ looks like a great short

[Jim Smith]

IMO, this is going to drop to $118 near term.....

[Jim Smith]

now is the time....

[IIC]

now is the time....


OK...in mid 15.30's

[Jim Smith]

There's going to run this right up a flag pole....

[IIC]

Jim...ELN may be good for a holdover but I will sell...I sold 1/2 for +.18 in the 15.50's...will sell the rest before the close...thx for the idea though...Doug(IIC)

[Jim Smith]

got a Merrill upgrade today....watch 34.20 for breakout

[Jim Smith]

no breakout yet....but, as I said earlier, I think it's completed the five waves down and it's basing....

[Jim Smith]

this stock looks ready to rock....

3M can make $80 by year's end
AMD can make $28 near term
SNDK can make $65 near term
DXPE can make $50

[Jim Smith]

looks ok here to me

[Jim Smith]

Not that anyone here will notice cuz I don't have an avatar equal to Louetta's....However, I bring the goods....I look for the GLD to hit 80+ by the end or March 2007.....

[Rob]

I look for the GLD to hit 80+ by the end or March 2007.....Wow! Big symmetrical triangle. It reminds me a lot of the GOOG chart.

Interesting idea, Jim. So you're betting on the continued weakness of the "buck," eh? They say Warren Buffett has made a pile of money betting on a weak dollar over the past few years.

http://img455.imageshack.us/img455/7351/acg9.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Not that anyone here will notice cuz I don't have an avatar equal to Louetta's....However, I bring the goods....I look for the GLD to hit 80+ by the end or March 2007.....


You bring the goods, alright. Now if you'd post a chart where we could see your reasoning, that would be dessert. :D Gold is jumping today with Iran's nuclear threats.

[jiesen]

what about silver? Whatever gold does, silver ought to do trebly.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SSRI&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=slv+gld

[Lyehopper]

Not that anyone here will notice cuz I don't have an avatar equal to Louetta's....However, I bring the goods....I look for the GLD to hit 80+ by the end or March 2007.....
Try wearing a toga....

[Jim Smith]

I think yields have bottomed.....

[Jim Smith]

early 2007


This Iran situation extremely serious imo.....

[Jim Smith]

Imagine you're Indian and you're surrounded by crazies with nukes....You might just want to covert your rupees and US dollars to gold.....I believe gold is going to get safe haven status now regardless of what the buck does...

[jiesen]

what about silver? Whatever gold does, silver ought to do trebly.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SSRI&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=slv+gld

gold up 1%, silver up 3%. who just made precious metals their girlfriend?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SSRI&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=slv,gld

[Jim Smith]

closed GLD....luckily, had an offsetting trade that worked: long AMD which I sold to get my loot back....


Staying short the TLT as I believe long rates are heading higher.

[Jim Smith]

symmetrical triangle is large....

[Jim Smith]

also, watch for the long end of the yield curve to rise substantially.....also, watch for AMD to rally big time....also, watch for JOF and ORLY to rally near term....

[Jim Smith]

short the TLT with a target of 80.50

[Jim Smith]

GLD just broke the big triangle....how about some chatter......tomorrow, I am looking for an entry into GOOG plus going to hop on AMD again once the 100 day moving average is taken out.

[Jim Smith]

not that anyone will read this but what the heck.....I am short the TLT cuz I believe we've seen a low in interest rates on the long end....Dec 89 and 90 puts are my play....5.5% on the $TNX is my target by Thanksgiving.

[peanuts]

not that anyone will read this but what the heck.....I am short the TLT cuz I believe we've seen a low in interest rates on the long end....Dec 89 and 90 puts are my play....5.5% on the $TNX is my target by Thanksgiving.

I did not read this, just to let you know

[DSteckler]

I didn't read it, either....<g>

[Jim Smith]

it hasn't taken out the bottom rail but this is looking like a serious potential failure....a downside breakout could lead to another 20% downside so it's worth a watch for a trade.

[lemonjello]

I note that Jim posted the breakdown in the Naz a while back.

Any thoughts on the overall markets here, Jim?

[Jim Smith]

Friday was telling, imo.....the OIH group was shot while certain semis did very well; WFR, AMD and SNDK to name a few.....I think there's just too much money in the system for every index and commodity and realestate and bonds to go into the tank simultaneously.....the broader indexes probably cannot be shorted except for a day trade.

[Jim Smith]

watch for broken patterns, they bring the money....the GLD broke above a symmetrical triangle only to fail and fall out the bottom and look at it now.....everyone is a chartist these days so don't give up on a pattern just cuz it broke down,,,,,the breakdowns can win big.....it's going to be choppy into late October.....WFR, SNDK might be OK....

[Jim Smith]

back to 54.....


NVTL...active Dec 12.50 calls....

[gerihearne]

bought MOT on Jim's tip awhile back ...
sold for 15% today ...
Thanks, Jim!
hey, where've ya bin?
best,
Geri

[wweeaazz]

I really do.

[Rob]

I noticed Jim as MIA too and wondered what happened.
Through quakes and tsunamis
Through flash floods and flames
I thought we could always
Count on ol' James

[gerihearne]

I noticed Jim as MIA too and wondered what happened.
Through quakes and tsunamis
Through flash floods and flames
I thought we could always
Count on ol' James


i love your songs
best,
g

[IIC]

Even though Jim and I are not on the same wavelength investing wise...I like to take his take into account....He comes up w/ some ideas that I find of interest.

Perhaps he is not doing well???...But we all go thru periods like that...Hopefully though, nothing has happened to him.

JIM!!!...Where are U????...IIC????

[Jim Smith]

I got frustrated with always having to come up with my password.....For some strange reason, this board wouldn't remember me and demanded my password so I could post.....After about the 5th time, I thought this isn't worth it....Now, I read the board out of the blue and I can post again....I can't figure it out. I am not the saviest person when it comes to computers, you have to make it easy for me or my brain seizes......


Regarding the market, we're going higher but this could be a correction week....we're due for a pullack....The OEX has broken out of its channel to the upside so big caps are where it's at....Love brokers like MER and GS....Love BA but on a pullback to $80....Love ROK to $70 by xmas....hey, last April, MER topped out at 15.5 x forward earnings....IF we see that again early 2007, MER will see $107....

[jiesen]

I am glad to see you're back, Jim!

[Jim Smith]

buying here.....there's been a cluster of insider buying in the $5s

[New-born baby]

Welcome back, Jim :D

[Rob]

For some strange reason, this board wouldn't remember me and demanded my password so I could post.....After about the 5th time, I thought this isn't worth it....Now, I read the board out of the blue and I can post again....I can't figure it out.If you put a check in the checkbox on the log in screen that says to remember you, the server stores a cookie on your machine. This saves you the trouble of having to log in each time. If you delete that cookie or access the site from a different machine, then you will be prompted for your password when you try to post to this site. My guess is one of those things happened.

[Jim Smith]

moving above the 40 week moving average

[Jim Smith]

moving above the 200 day moving average.

[IIC]

If you put a check in the checkbox on the log in screen that says to remember you, the server stores a cookie on your machine. This saves you the trouble of having to log in each time. If you delete that cookie or access the site from a different machine, then you will be prompted for your password when you try to post to this site. My guess is one of those things happened.


Also, if you don't have the 'Remember Me" box checked you will time out and have to log back in if you are inactive, while logged in, for a while (The timeout time is not very long)...Doug(IIC)

[Jim Smith]

could put on a show for the next couple weeks.

[Jim Smith]

could rally to $125 and the sector is rocking....playing the Jan 100 calls.

[Jim Smith]

I think it's being accumulated

[Jim Smith]

wow, when a pattern fails, it fails big time.....LM left a mark but we'll get it back.......SIGM has a cup and handle breakout......


Long SIGM

[wweeaazz]

could put on a show for the next couple weeks.

Looking good so far. Thanks.

[peanuts]

Looking good so far. Thanks.

Is ACI a good play for energy or for other reasons? I have lots of energy now, but I could use a switch on one of them to something that is not such a strict play. Technically looking juicy here

[Tatnic]

wow, when a pattern fails, it fails big time.....LM left a mark but we'll get it back.......SIGM has a cup and handle breakout......


Long SIGM

hadn't been paying attention to lm until it collapsed. Just looking at the balance sheet it fortold trouble ahead, or it should have. I still can't find any competitors with such an ugly balance sheet that might experience a similar collapse. At this point, I'd guess it has more downside even with the fair value quote by one house of $87 give or take. Seems more like a $30 stock price would be in order but that's pretty far away from these levels and of course anything can happen in the short run.

[Jim Smith]

NEOL at $6, c'mon.....


I am playing the SOX March 460 calls looking for 535

[Tatnic]

consider your back patted jimbo. Makes up for that lm call.

[Tatnic]

NEOL at $6, c'mon.....


I am playing the SOX March 460 calls looking for 535

just when you take your eyes off the pot, it starts to boil. Check out the biotech indexes. That's been a coiled spring for months now. I like vphm and there are others.

[Jim Smith]

bought the $3+ pullback intraday.....it's above the 200 day and the downtrend....$82?

[Jim Smith]

wow, this is sexy.....Or, maybe I've been married too long....anyway, the SOX chart shows that it's getting back above the busted uptrend line dating back to October 2002

[Jim Smith]

hanging out around its 40 week ma after a nice gap....gotta feeling this is a buy and holder

[Jim Smith]

New CEO announced after close Friday.....Old CEO was good for R&D but a new skill set is required, one with sales and marketing abilities....I believe this is good news.....Ascending triangle on weekly chart.

[Jim Smith]

I like long dated calls here....Fidelity has been a huge buyer.....$16 is my key chart point to get piggish

[Jim Smith]

a whole lot more people are getting closer to their mortality.

[Jim Smith]

Over the summer, I mentioned this as the demand for corn would increase the demand for fertilizer....Well, it took some patience but this is a 50% gainer from where I mentioned it here.

[Jim Smith]

raymond james started with outperform.....Cramer doesn't like it....add it up and it looks like a good spec long...

[Websman]

raymond james started with outperform.....Cramer doesn't like it....add it up and it looks like a good spec long...

I wonder what Cramer would think of the VTP?

[Jim Smith]

everyone has a hair trigger.....but if you believe gold can rally, today is a good day to buy.

[peanuts]

Thanks for pointing this out to us, Jim. I've made my 10% and I'm out.

[Jim Smith]

all of a sudden, housing isn't acting too bad.....Warren buffet took a position in USG recently.

[Jim Smith]

can't you just see all those folks in florida calling their democratic congressman to complain about high rates on home insurance?

[Jim Smith]

oh I think we've just seen the top in ALL

[Jim Smith]

another little bb stock that is breaking out.

[Jim Smith]

restaurant stock.

[Jim Smith]

developing into a potentially explosive situation.....

[peanuts]

developing into a potentially explosive situation.....

It just made a new high. Will it pull back a little or blast off? Thanks for the heads-up.

[Jim Smith]

on the hook for billions from Katrina....going in front of a democratic congress in January over coverage for Katrina.....gonna be ugly.....My late Jan target is $56.50....I like April 65 puts

[Jim Smith]

the banks cannot allow funds to be transferred to offshore betting sites....but, WU might still be available to gamblers.....and, WU might be used by various aliens inside this country....the WU story is interesting.

[Jim Smith]

a weak dollar play....looks like a triple top ready to get taken out.....cup and handle with handle above/on 200 day ma.

[Jim Smith]

been riding the reacquired bottom rail of the uptrending channel on the weekly chart.....this stock indicates good expected growth for 2007 vs 2006....$25 would not be a surprise near term.

[Jim Smith]

head and shoulders bottom.....$152 is the target.

[Jim Smith]

17% short interest.....watch for a melt up potential

[Jim Smith]

Hear Cramer Friday night? He says corn yields are down and therefore more fertilizer is needed......This is exactly what I said on this thread over the summer when I said POT was a buy around $95 right here.....Now Cramer is jumping on my band wagon.

[Jim Smith]

the XBD looks like a cup and handle with a 290 target....I am long MER looking for $107 by Memorial day

[Jim Smith]

I expect GS to trade to 15x earnings in 2007......

[peanuts]

Hear Cramer Friday night? He says corn yields are down and therefore more fertilizer is needed......This is exactly what I said on this thread over the summer when I said POT was a buy around $95 right here.....Now Cramer is jumping on my band wagon.

You should get your own TV show :)

Nice call, Jimmy...now about answering questions posed to you on your own thread...

[Websman]

You should get your own TV show :)

Nice call, Jimmy...now about answering questions posed to you on your own thread...


Jim's much more important than us....

[New-born baby]

Hear Cramer Friday night? He says corn yields are down and therefore more fertilizer is needed......This is exactly what I said on this thread over the summer when I said POT was a buy around $95 right here.....Now Cramer is jumping on my band wagon.

Jimmy Eugene jumping on the bandwagon? That's a sure sign POT has topped . . . .

[jiesen]

Jimmy Eugene jumping on the bandwagon? That's a sure sign POT has topped . . . .

cool, you just saved me from having to say it.

Jim, you were right. Now that the Cramer minions are piling in, you can get out with your 50% gain, and start looking for the next big one.

Jim Smith is HUGE!!!

[Jim Smith]

I see someone asked me to answer a question.....I'd be happy to but can't recall what it was.....Please ask again and I'll give it a go.

[jiesen]

It just made a new high. Will it pull back a little or blast off? Thanks for the heads-up.

I believe this is the post to which Peanuts is referring. The question does seem a bit unanswerable though...

I vote for a blast off!

[peanuts]

I believe this is the post to which Peanuts is referring. The question does seem a bit unanswerable though...

I vote for a blast off!

Yup, That was the question which is in question... I guess my question was pretty non-descript. What I meant to question, is whether we can expect a pullback before it "explodes," or is it just going to explode without waiting on little peanuts to pick an entry point.

ps. I love the English language ;)

[New-born baby]

I see someone asked me to answer a question.....I'd be happy to but can't recall what it was.....Please ask again and I'll give it a go.

Jim,
You make great calls. How do you do it?

[Jim Smith]

through year's end.

[Tatnic]

on the hook for billions from Katrina....going in front of a democratic congress in January over coverage for Katrina.....gonna be ugly.....My late Jan target is $56.50....I like April 65 puts

jimmy....did you ever check the chart? Don't see any weakness on the horizon.

[Jim Smith]

also, long LTS......CAMH has certainly been a play only for the most patient


currently long: ba, beav, cat, gs, lts, tie

[Websman]

Jim...Where have you been?

[dmk112]

also, long LTS......CAMH has certainly been a play only for the most patient


currently long: ba, beav, cat, gs, lts, tie

I like TIE.

LTS a bit stretched, no?

Welcome back Jimbo!

When is the new soprano's season coming?

[mrmarket]

Goody...Steckler will be next.

[Websman]

Goody...Steckler will be next.

Steckler hates me...:confused:

[Tatnic]

Steckler hates me...:confused:

lol...we certainly have a high opinion of ourselves, eh?

If you would go back and read that post which made you think he "hated" you in the first place you'd see what an idiot you were for thinking that.

Dave told me that one of the reasons he left the site was that it turned into "church chat".

[skiracer]

lol...we certainly have a high opinion of ourselves, eh?

If you would go back and read that post which made you think he "hated" you in the first place you'd see what an idiot you were for thinking that.

Dave told me that one of the reasons he left the site was that it turned into "church chat".

Dave rubbed a number of people here the wrong way but he was an astute trader who was into stocks first and the other BS second. You can't have 100 % stock talk all the time but this forum has definitely digressed from a stock orientated platform and commentary to something alot less than that. It doesn't take a genius to see the very large decline in meaningful dialogue. All you have to do is to cruise around the internet and you can find any number of sites where the talk is all about stocks. Anyone that can't see that is deceiving themselves and the talk about the number of hits on the site doesn't mean crap if they aren't posting and providing some degree of meaningful stock talk. Just look around an see how many posts are about stocks and how many charts are getting posted and discussed. The percentage of stock related posts to general BS is proportionally much lower.

Webs,
I like and respect you but to be honest the Vulcan VTP thing is getting overdone. I don't think Dave hated you as much as had gotten tired of the whole scenario around here and we are all to blame for that.

Tatnic,
You can't go around calling people idiots and expect to nuture or propogate anything positive can you? Stick a "c " inbetween the TAT and express some of that. I've always felt that when assigning names to others it usually takes one to know one.

I owe you an everyone else an apology. You just might be right in your assessment of things. The slimey little eel Peanuts just brought out the worst in me after I brought you to task for that kind of talk. Sorry. Like Dave I'm out of here.

[Tatnic]

Dave rubbed a number of people here the wrong way but he was an astute trader who was into stocks first and the other BS second. You can't have 100 % stock talk all the time but this forum has definitely digressed from a stock orientated platform and commentary to something alot less than that. It doesn't take a genius to see the very large decline in meaningful dialogue. All you have to do is to cruise around the internet and you can find any number of sites where the talk is all about stocks. Anyone that can't see that is deceiving themselves and the talk about the number of hits on the site doesn't mean crap if they aren't posting and providing some degree of meaningful stock talk. Just look around an see how many posts are about stocks and how many charts are getting posted and discussed. The percentage of stock related posts to general BS is proportionally much lower.

Webs,
I like and respect you but to be honest the Vulcan VTP thing is getting overdone. I don't think Dave hated you as much as had gotten tired of the whole scenario around here and we are all to blame for that.

Tatnic,
You can't go around calling people idiots and expect to nuture or propogate anything positive can you? Stick a "c " inbetween the TAT and express some of that. I've always felt that when assigning names to others it usually takes one to know one.

I owe you an everyone else an apology. You just might be right in your assessment of things. The slimey little eel Peanuts just brought out the worst in me after I brought you to task for that kind of talk. Sorry. Like Dave I'm out of here.


I'd be willing to bet that webs would agree with me. I don't think he's an idiot, but his reaction to dave's post was idiotic. And I'm sure webs is a fun guy to have a beer with, i'd be willing to bet on that. But I'm also pretty sure dave doesn't hate webs and that he would get a kick out of all this "Dave hates me" drivel.

Me tactful? Sheesh...that'll be the day! I could try to be Mr. Politeness Man (a charactor from that whacky magazine from the 60's or 70's), but you'd hate that even more :).

[Tatnic]

I'd be willing to bet that webs would agree with me. I don't think he's an idiot, but his reaction to dave's post was idiotic. And I'm sure webs is a fun guy to have a beer with, i'd be willing to bet on that. But I'm also pretty sure dave doesn't hate webs and that he would get a kick out of all this "Dave hates me" drivel.

Me tactful? Sheesh...that'll be the day! I could try to be Mr. Politeness Man (a charactor from that whacky magazine from the 60's or 70's), but you'd hate that even more :).

National Lampoon!!

[mrmarket]

I loved Politeness Man...didn't he hit people on the head with some iron book or something??

[Tatnic]

I loved Politeness Man...didn't he hit people on the head with some iron book or something??

lol...think so...I wish I still had those old issues. Collector's items by now.

[Jim Smith]

interesting story......an old Wall Street firm being resurrected in Miami Fla.....

[Jim Smith]

turnaround story.....earnings being ramped up.....institutions buying

[Lyehopper]

But I'm also pretty sure dave doesn't hate webs and that he would get a kick out of all this "Dave hates me" drivel.

That's funny because Dave told me that he does indeed hate Websman and he also thinks the VTP is not a superior trading system.... BTW Dave also hates me because I'm an IC member.

[Websman]

Webs,
I like and respect you but to be honest the Vulcan VTP thing is getting overdone. I don't think Dave hated you as much as had gotten tired of the whole scenario around here and we are all to blame for that.



Nonsense...The VTP could never be "overdone". The VTP is an amazing system. I love the VTP...and the VTP loves me. :D

Long live the VTP!!!

[Websman]

lol...we certainly have a high opinion of ourselves, eh?

If you would go back and read that post which made you think he "hated" you in the first place you'd see what an idiot you were for thinking that.

Dave told me that one of the reasons he left the site was that it turned into "church chat".

I'm not an idiot...I'm just a dumb redneck, who happens to be a Vulcan and the creator of the VTP inner circle. :)

[stenzrob]

Jim,
You make great calls. How do you do it?
Another question gone unanswered. I actually have the same one.
Ernie keeps saying that Jim's a good picker and has good insights, but other than for CAMH, I haven't seen any rationale for anything ... where do these stock picks come from? Out of the thousands of stocks out there, Jim, how do you find the ones that attract your interest to look into further?
regards ... stenz

[New-born baby]

CAMH: the only one he reasoned out for us, and it is a loser. The silence is deafening.

[Jim Smith]

The whole situation is changing for CAMH....First, the ICD companies tried to kill CAMH as they saw it as an impediment to their business....Now that the ICD market is in the tank, they see CAMH as a possible savior.....STJ is going to lend their marketing muscle to CAMH......This was announced last week....Now, the Alpha test results, which were supportive to CAMH, came out Sunday....I think patience is going to pay off.

[Jim Smith]

I reasoned out POT in the middle of the summer saying the increased demand for corn would cause an increased demand for fertilizer.....the stock was $94 at the time.......

[mrmarket]

I reasoned out POT in the middle of the summer saying the increased demand for corn would cause an increased demand for fertilizer.....the stock was $94 at the time.......

POT was HUGE. I love POT. Too bad this administration is backing ethanol. What a waste of energy!

[skiracer]

POT was HUGE. I love POT. Too bad this administration is backing ethanol. What a waste of energy!

What a coincidence Ernie. I love it too.

[skiracer]

POT was HUGE. I love POT. Too bad this administration is backing ethanol. What a waste of energy!

What a coincidence Ernie. I love it too.

[Tatnic]

What a coincidence Ernie. I love it too.

its too bad that we can't grow industrial grade hemp...it would take an acre or so to get you high, but there's a ton of fiber in that acre, along with industrial grade oils and resins. I suspect you could even make some low-grade ethanol out of it. I've got a better idea, lets subsidize sugar farmers and get americans fat and unheathy, that's better for the economy, right?

[skiracer]

its too bad that we can't grow industrial grade hemp...it would take an acre or so to get you high, but there's a ton of fiber in that acre, along with industrial grade oils and resins. I suspect you could even make some low-grade ethanol out of it. I've got a better idea, lets subsidize sugar farmers and get americans fat and unheathy, that's better for the economy, right?

When I was a kid about a year out of high school after my Baja experience a buddy of mine got the idea to go down into Kentucky and Tennessee to pick wild hemp along the hedge-rows. He had gotten some from someone he knew who had supposedly picked a few hundred pounds of it and then brought it back to NJ and sold it making a few thousand profit. 5 of us went down in late Mid October and it was like another planet in Kentucky. Anyway we drive around for a few days looking things over and we spot a bunch of nice spots where it is growing wild and in abundance. We pick for a couple of nights in the early morning, 2 to 4/5 am, and have a few sacks filled to the brim in the trunks of two cars we went down in and only have about enough room for a little bit more. We go out that last night and are picking it and smoking it and a pair of car lights come on and takes us completely by surprise. I mean they were right there on top of us when the lights came on and we all must have thought of the same thing and we jumped into the cars and took off. We were speeding down these dirt farm roads only wide enough to handle one car at a time when I heard the first shot go off and the whole back window of the car we were in blows out. My buddy driving never took his foot off the gas and we did manage to get away but not before they took about 3 more shots at us. The only thing that saved us was that they were premature in turning the lights in their pickup truck on and that they were in back of us and the dust was so thick that they had to slow down and couldn't see us anymore because of the cloud of dust. It was the first time I had ever been shot at. We stopped only long enough to get our gear out of the hotel room where we were staying an to get out of Kentucky. We drove all the way home without the window and the car was peppered with buckshot pretty good on the trunk door.
No one down there called it marijuana. They all called it hemp. Apparently they had a problem with northerners coming down there and harvesting it for resale up north. We had no idea of what we were walking into. We brought back a few hundred lbs. of the hemp which looked just like the real bud.

[Tatnic]

When I was a kid about a year out of high school after my Baja experience a buddy of mine got the idea to go down into Kentucky and Tennessee to pick wild hemp along the hedge-rows. He had gotten some from someone he knew who had supposedly picked a few hundred pounds of it and then brought it back to NJ and sold it making a few thousand profit. 5 of us went down in late Mid October and it was like another planet in Kentucky. Anyway we drive around for a few days looking things over and we spot a bunch of nice spots where it is growing wild and in abundance. We pick for a couple of nights in the early morning, 2 to 4/5 am, and have a few sacks filled to the brim in the trunks of two cars we went down in and only have about enough room for a little bit more. We go out that last night and are picking it and smoking it and a pair of car lights come on and takes us completely by surprise. I mean they were right there on top of us when the lights came on and we all must have thought of the same thing and we jumped into the cars and took off. We were speeding down these dirt farm roads only wide enough to handle one car at a time when I heard the first shot go off and the whole back window of the car we were in blows out. My buddy driving never took his foot off the gas and we did manage to get away but not before they took about 3 more shots at us. The only thing that saved us was that they were premature in turning the lights in their pickup truck on and that they were in back of us and the dust was so thick that they had to slow down and couldn't see us anymore because of the cloud of dust. It was the first time I had ever been shot at. We stopped only long enough to get our gear out of the hotel room where we were staying an to get out of Kentucky. We drove all the way home without the window and the car was peppered with buckshot pretty good on the trunk door.
No one down there called it marijuana. They all called it hemp. Apparently they had a problem with northerners coming down there and harvesting it for resale up north. We had no idea of what we were walking into. We brought back a few hundred lbs. of the hemp which looked just like the real bud.

When i was in college, I had a bush growing in the back yard which I fed cat shit and made everyone pee on it who happened to be at the house partying. It got so big that people thought it was a pine tree. I don't recall how potent it was, just how big it was. It wasn't until later that I learned that in order to promote bud growth, you need to supply phosphorous, not nitrogen.

If I recall, Woody Harrelson (woody from Cheers) is a big proponent of industrieal hemp production and he's from kentucky....I'm guessing you stole someone's industrial hemp supply.

[Jim Smith]

My favorite dow stock.....I think there's decent news coming on a couple fronts.....unions and interest rates....

[Jim Smith]

may be ready for an end of quarter run back to old highs.

[Jim Smith]

by the end of June.....CLF and ATI could be strong as funds bid up what worked during the quarter.....1580 on the SPX is the top of the channel.

[Jim Smith]

it's my favorite dow play.....I've read plenty of headlines saying it's a bankruptcy waiting to happen....I like this negativity....GM can make $55 in 18 months, imo.

[Jim Smith]

by Goldman Sachs.......Mentioned this as my dow play of the year.....

[mrmarket]

by Goldman Sachs.......Mentioned this as my dow play of the year.....

I agree with Jim here...revenue growth looks solid. They could be out of the woods, and the dividend is sweet.

[Jim Smith]

nice bounce off the 100 day.....been hearing pipeline is solid.

[Jim Smith]

target is $42 by thanksgiving.

[Jim Smith]

you wanna be on this stock......
GS is a buy and hold forever play.....
BGC is a quarter end buy play
GM to $42
GE to $42
MRK to $60

[Websman]

You're amazing Jim. How do you do it?

[Jim Smith]

Bgc, Ati, Clf

[Jim Smith]

I see a resurgence due to effective use of flash memory in laptop computers....

[Websman]

You're amazing Jim. How do you do it?

[Jim Smith]

I think you've single-handedly put a serious dent in the viewership of this website.....quit baiting me you homo.

[IIC]

I think you've single-handedly put a serious dent in the viewership of this website.....quit baiting me you homo.

I always suspected Webs and BIG BUBBA were an item...thx for confirming :cramersmiley:

[Jim Smith]

when GE hits $37.....that's my tell......GE's target is $42 by Thanksgiving.....this from the desk of the guy who said buy POT at $95, presplit.

[Tatnic]

I see a resurgence due to effective use of flash memory in laptop computers....

maybe....you could argue its got an inverse head and shoulders pattern to fill out up to 53, give or take. MRVL has a similar chart and its looking like it wants to bounce.

The whole damn sector has done nothing but handout false breakouts over the past 3 years and even though the semis look like they wants to make a higher high, I still adopt the missouri motto....show me.

[Jim Smith]

5.6%.....$TNX is a nice uptrend.

[Jim Smith]

right on the 50 day ma......watch interest rates soar.....GS July 210 puts for $1.05 could win nicely

[Jim Smith]

double bottom off the 200 week moving average.....Same situation occurred in 2006....I look for the stock to reach $73 by the end of the calendar year.

[Jim Smith]

as mentioned on this forum....

[Jim Smith]

target is $15

[Jim Smith]

making a move....as posted here, you want this stock for year end.

[Jim Smith]

this week......

[Jim Smith]

this is a $72 by year end....Jan 65 calls are a good play.

[Websman]

I was only trying to compliment you Jim. You're doing a great job. I am not worthy....

I feel very fortunate to be able to read your thread. :D

[Websman]

I always suspected Webs and BIG BUBBA were an item...thx for confirming :cramersmiley:

How did you know Doug???

[mrmarket]

double bottom off the 200 week moving average.....Same situation occurred in 2006....I look for the stock to reach $73 by the end of the calendar year.

HUGE CALL Smitty. Congrats

[IIC]

How did you know Doug???

My crystal ball is never wrong

[Jim Smith]

when GE trades at or slightly below $37, the correction is over....I posted this here before.....The correction is on......GS is a short....

[Jim Smith]

scared money will run to this group......also, near the bottom of the long term channel

[Jim Smith]

long term downtrend is broken and the analysts don't believe yet

[Jim Smith]

and likely undercut them by a few points.....Financials are going to bear the brunt of this selloff hence my call to buy puts on GS.....I see the brokers dealers having another 6% downside over the next several days....

[Jim Smith]

GE still has a $1.30 downside to go.....The S&P and Dow therefore are headed for the house of pain....

[Jim Smith]

GE still has a $1.30 downside.....How ugly will the market have to get to get GE to fall to $36.80? Pretty darn ugly.....I would say SPX 1480 minimum downside target.

[Jim Smith]

long at 40.42......not usually my kind of play.

[Jim Smith]

my favorite county fund.....Target is par or $100

[Jim Smith]

Japan held interest rates steady which allows for the carry trade to continue unabated......

[Jim Smith]

by the end of the summer.

[New-born baby]

by the end of the summer.

target is $121.00

[New-born baby]

ICE: tgt is $210.

[Jim Smith]

TRF and CAMH.....notice a similarity? If TRF continues to mimic CAMH, then TRF is ready to explode higher.....it is just now trading above its 200 day moving average.....

[Jim Smith]

when they failed to raise interest rates, it was game on.....I withdrawl all comments about GE needing to reach 37 before a real rally......The Japanese took one for the team....

[Jim Smith]

you want to own these.....targets are $60 and $73 respectively

[New-born baby]

you want to own these.....targets are $60 and $73 respectively

Great avatar, Jim.

[Websman]

Great thread Jim. :D

[Jim Smith]

you want to own this stock......flash memory hot again.

[jiesen]

fantastic avatar! Ferguson rules! :cool:

[jiesen]

I think his money management tips for poker could be applied to stock-trading money managent as well. Check it out:

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/pro-tips-archive.php?player=Chris%20Ferguson&tip=100

Pro Tip: 100
Starting from Zero
Chris Ferguson
April 30th, 2007

I'm almost a year into an experiment on Full Tilt Poker. I'm attempting to turn $0 into a $10,000 bankroll. With no money to start with, I had no choice but to start out playing Freerolls. Starting out, I'd often manage to win a dollar or two, but I'd quickly get busted and have to start over again. It took some time but, after awhile, I was eventually able to graduate to games that required an actual buy-in.
Even today, people don't believe it's really me when I sit down at Full Tilt's small stakes games. They ask what I'm doing down here, and often tell me stories about how they turned $5 into $500 or $100 into $1,000. Usually, these stories end with the person telling me that they went broke. There's no surprise there. These folks tried to quickly build a bankroll by gambling. They'd play in a game that was beyond their bankroll and, if they happened to win, they'd move up to a higher limit and risk it all one more time. Inevitably, they'd lose a few big hands and go broke.
For me, this experiment isn't about the money. It's about showing how, with proper bankroll management, you can start from nothing and move up to the point where you're playing in some pretty big games. I know it's possible because I did it once before, turning $1 into $20,000.
To ensure that I keep my bankroll intact, I've adopted some key rules:


I'll never buy into a cash game or a Sit & Go with more than 5 percent of my total bankroll (there is an exception for the lowest limits: I'm allowed to buy into any game with a buy-in of $2.50 or less).
I won't buy into a multi-table tournament for more than 2 percent of my total bankroll and I'm allowed to buy into any multi-table tournament that costs $1.
If at any time during a No-Limit or Pot-Limit cash-game session the money on the table represents more than 10 percent of my total bankroll, I must leave the game when the blinds reach me. I think a lot of players would do well to apply these rules. One great benefit from this approach to bankroll management is that it ensures you'll be playing in games you can afford. You'll never play for very long in a game that's over your head because, when you're losing, you'll have no choice but to drop down to a smaller game. You can continue to sharpen your game at that lower limit until your bankroll allows you to move up and take another shot. These rules also prevent you from being completely decimated by a bad run of cards.
Dropping down and playing lower limits is difficult for a lot of players. They view it as a failure and their egos get in the way. Many want to remain at the level they'd been playing and win back their losses. But this can lead to some pretty severe tilt - and that can go through a bankroll in a hurry. I know that dropping down was difficult for me in my run from $1 to $20,000. When I first played in the $25/$50 game, I lost. Sticking to my rules, I dropped down to the $10/$25 game. I had a losing streak there and had to go down to $5/$10. That was tough. After playing $25/$50, a $5/$10 game was boring to me.
But I had the discipline to stick to my rules, and that motivated me to play better at the lower levels. I really didn't want to lose any more because I knew the consequences: I'd have to play even lower and work even harder to get back to where I'd been, which could take as long as a month. If you ever find yourself bored or frustrated playing at the lower limits, you're obviously not playing well. Take a break from the game. Often, stepping away can give you a fresh perspective and heightened motivation to play well when you return.
There are a couple of more tips I'd like to share regarding bankroll management. First, you should never play in a game that is beyond your bankroll simply because the game seems to be soft that day. It's never soft enough to risk money that puts your bankroll in jeopardy. The other point is that you should avoid playing in games that are at the top of your bankroll limits, when a lower game offers more opportunity for profit.
I'm confident that by sticking to these sound bankroll management rules, I'll make it to my $10,000 goal. These rules are sure to help you as well, as you pursue your own poker ambitions. So, if you want to start your own quest - or play against me while I'm continuing with mine - come open a free account at Full Tilt Poker and look for me online. But hurry, because I'm hoping I won't be in the lower limits for too much longer.


http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/images/ourTeam/sigFerguson.gif
Chris Ferguson

[Jim Smith]

watch out of any hint of a rate cut

[Jim Smith]

looking for a test of the 50 day moving average.

[Jim Smith]

biggest share position for me.....

[Jim Smith]

ascending triangle.....no breakout yet

[Jim Smith]

disk drives are old technology.....I said it here a few weeks ago, you want to be in SNDK for the push to replace disk drives with flash.

[Websman]

I think his money management tips for poker could be applied to stock-trading money managent as well. Check it out:

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/pro-tips-archive.php?player=Chris%20Ferguson&tip=100

Pro Tip: 100
Starting from Zero
Chris Ferguson
April 30th, 2007

I'm almost a year into an experiment on Full Tilt Poker. I'm attempting to turn $0 into a $10,000 bankroll. With no money to start with, I had no choice but to start out playing Freerolls. Starting out, I'd often manage to win a dollar or two, but I'd quickly get busted and have to start over again. It took some time but, after awhile, I was eventually able to graduate to games that required an actual buy-in.
Even today, people don't believe it's really me when I sit down at Full Tilt's small stakes games. They ask what I'm doing down here, and often tell me stories about how they turned $5 into $500 or $100 into $1,000. Usually, these stories end with the person telling me that they went broke. There's no surprise there. These folks tried to quickly build a bankroll by gambling. They'd play in a game that was beyond their bankroll and, if they happened to win, they'd move up to a higher limit and risk it all one more time. Inevitably, they'd lose a few big hands and go broke.
For me, this experiment isn't about the money. It's about showing how, with proper bankroll management, you can start from nothing and move up to the point where you're playing in some pretty big games. I know it's possible because I did it once before, turning $1 into $20,000.
To ensure that I keep my bankroll intact, I've adopted some key rules:


I'll never buy into a cash game or a Sit & Go with more than 5 percent of my total bankroll (there is an exception for the lowest limits: I'm allowed to buy into any game with a buy-in of $2.50 or less).
I won't buy into a multi-table tournament for more than 2 percent of my total bankroll and I'm allowed to buy into any multi-table tournament that costs $1.
If at any time during a No-Limit or Pot-Limit cash-game session the money on the table represents more than 10 percent of my total bankroll, I must leave the game when the blinds reach me.I think a lot of players would do well to apply these rules. One great benefit from this approach to bankroll management is that it ensures you'll be playing in games you can afford. You'll never play for very long in a game that's over your head because, when you're losing, you'll have no choice but to drop down to a smaller game. You can continue to sharpen your game at that lower limit until your bankroll allows you to move up and take another shot. These rules also prevent you from being completely decimated by a bad run of cards.
Dropping down and playing lower limits is difficult for a lot of players. They view it as a failure and their egos get in the way. Many want to remain at the level they'd been playing and win back their losses. But this can lead to some pretty severe tilt - and that can go through a bankroll in a hurry. I know that dropping down was difficult for me in my run from $1 to $20,000. When I first played in the $25/$50 game, I lost. Sticking to my rules, I dropped down to the $10/$25 game. I had a losing streak there and had to go down to $5/$10. That was tough. After playing $25/$50, a $5/$10 game was boring to me.
But I had the discipline to stick to my rules, and that motivated me to play better at the lower levels. I really didn't want to lose any more because I knew the consequences: I'd have to play even lower and work even harder to get back to where I'd been, which could take as long as a month. If you ever find yourself bored or frustrated playing at the lower limits, you're obviously not playing well. Take a break from the game. Often, stepping away can give you a fresh perspective and heightened motivation to play well when you return.
There are a couple of more tips I'd like to share regarding bankroll management. First, you should never play in a game that is beyond your bankroll simply because the game seems to be soft that day. It's never soft enough to risk money that puts your bankroll in jeopardy. The other point is that you should avoid playing in games that are at the top of your bankroll limits, when a lower game offers more opportunity for profit.
I'm confident that by sticking to these sound bankroll management rules, I'll make it to my $10,000 goal. These rules are sure to help you as well, as you pursue your own poker ambitions. So, if you want to start your own quest - or play against me while I'm continuing with mine - come open a free account at Full Tilt Poker and look for me online. But hurry, because I'm hoping I won't be in the lower limits for too much longer.


http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/images/ourTeam/sigFerguson.gif
Chris Ferguson

Jiesen, don't disturb Jim...He has no time for humor. he's a serious trader.

[IIC]

biggest share position for me.....

I had it on my Cups w/ Handles list up until last Sunday...I took it off because the handle was sort of whacko and some of the down days were on high volume...But admittedly, most of my CwH's are not "Classic" patterns.

Looks good now though:

http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/6214/scpo3.png (http://imageshack.us)

[IIC]

Hey Jim...I included MSFT in my Midweek Email Update tonight...That should be good for a 3% pop...Send me the usual.... ;)

[Jim Smith]

I give that jackass cramer a triple sell....JNJ is a triple buy here, along with MRK......

[Jim Smith]

India looks strong again......took profits from SNDK and rolled into INFY

[jiesen]

Jiesen, don't disturb Jim...He has no time for humor. he's a serious trader.

Well then, maybe this would be a more appropriate avatar for him.

http://doubledeckerbuses.org/blog/media/serious_cat.jpg
(I are not serious though)

[jiesen]

Jim,

Nice call on the MSFT, by the way. Though I don't own any myself anymore, it is my wife's biggest share position... that counts for something, right?

JNJ and MRK are great stocks to own, but again, not for me. I personally find the big pharmas too boring, and prefer the riskier biotech plays for the long-term payoff potential. My biggest positions are in LJPC, AMLN, and GPRO. (2 out of 3 are doing very well so far...)

[IIC]

Dang...did I miss a post warning me that MSFT was announcing today???

[billyjoe]

The good news is I got out of GS @115.93. The bad news , I got GOOGED and it hurts.

-----------billyjoe

[skiracer]

Jim,
what did you think of todays earnings report from MSFT? I bought the Oct. 7 32.50 and 35 calls this morning and am still holding them. Do you think the report was up to par or will be detrimental to the stocks price tomorrow.

[Jim Smith]

I sold MSFT Thursday ahead of the earnings because, I had very good profits, was going golfing Friday and was a little afraid of the sell-the-earnings report that appears to be occurring this quarter.......I thought the MSFT report was good enough and I rebought my MSFT position mid day Friday while on the golf course.....I rebought the Oct 32-1/2 calls for 66 cents that I sold for $1 the night before.....and I have the shares as well again.....I am looking for $35 then $40 this year....

[Jim Smith]

I think the Apple results will further strengthen SNDK as the demand for flash becomes ever more obvious.

[skiracer]

I sold MSFT Thursday ahead of the earnings because, I had very good profits, was going golfing Friday and was a little afraid of the sell-the-earnings report that appears to be occurring this quarter.......I thought the MSFT report was good enough and I rebought my MSFT position mid day Friday while on the golf course.....I rebought the Oct 32-1/2 calls for 66 cents that I sold for $1 the night before.....and I have the shares as well again.....I am looking for $35 then $40 this year....

http://img122.imageshack.us/img122/3833/msftju2.png (http://imageshack.us)

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/2797/msftcj3.png (http://imageshack.us)

This is a good one to keep an eye on over the next few weeks. The option chain has a couple of great opportunities right now at these prices for the Nov. 7 - 32.50 and 35.00 calls. Barcharts rating is also strong on it right now on that top chart.

[Jim Smith]

as I said here Thursday,,,,,JNJ and MRK are triple buys after Cramer puts a triple sell on them.....that guy is dangerous.

[Jim Smith]

now is a good place to buy these on the contract negotiations

[Jim Smith]

Of course he's 10 bucks late, but better late than never......Cramer is still a freakin idiot.

[Jim Smith]

now an investment grade short, imo.....target is $28 or less off this formation.

[Websman]

Jim...What do you think of ROCM?

Your pal Webs... :D

[Jim Smith]

recent dip below the 200 day saw immediate buying to bring back above....however, the stock is flatlining....waiting for information I guess.

[Websman]

recent dip below the 200 day saw immediate buying to bring back above....however, the stock is flatlining....waiting for information I guess.

ROCM down .80 today. Buying opportunity? Or maybe time to take profits...

[Jim Smith]

there's not much going on here for me to go one way or the other on this stock.....

[skiracer]

ascending triangle.....no breakout yet


http://img53.imageshack.us/img53/4566/msftap6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[riverbabe]

Ski, I'm playing the options with you and Jim here. I see it (MSFT) going higher and hope to be in the money soon. River

[skiracer]

Ski, I'm playing the options with you and Jim here. I see it (MSFT) going higher and hope to be in the money soon. River


River,
you know I only wish the best for you babe. I hope it makes it DEEP into the money. I feel that it will eventually before October and probably sometime around September it will be in the money. As far as playing your options with Jim and I, I can't speak for Jim but yours and my options are certainly open.

[riverbabe]

River,
you know I only wish the best for you babe. I hope it makes it DEEP into the money. I feel that it will eventually before October and probably sometime around September it will be in the money. As far as playing your options with Jim and I, I can't speak for Jim but yours and my options are certainly open.

MSFT right?

[New-born baby]

Looks like Jim's call for the fall will materialize today.

VIP down almost $8 before the open.

[skiracer]

MSFT right?

what other options could there be for an old married guy and a 39 year old voluptous woman like yourself river. although I do consider myself somewhat of a hardbody even at my age i'm not the same guy as i was 20 or 30 years ago. but my mind is as imaginative as ever.

[Jim Smith]

I think there's a long play here.....


I think just about all the brokers could be cut in half from today's prices.
IBM looks solid for the fall but I won't be buying here.
Market buyable when GE hits $32.
JCP broke a long term trendline, what is this saying about retail?

[Jim Smith]

I expect talk of a US/Euro recession to pick up.....This will depress oil prices, imo.....Therefore, I believe drillers may have a quick 20% downside:

DO to $70
RIG to $75
BHI to $65.