Steckler's Star Studded Stock Picks

[mrmarket]

Dave Steckler is a legend on the AOL Experienced Investors forum. Now he's here sharing his ideas with us which makes me very very happy. Dave..please use this thread for your ongoing discussions. I'm sure you'll develop an eager fan club in a hurry.


Of course feel free to start new threads for separate stock picks if you'd like.

[DSteckler]

Ernst!

Will do and thanks for hosting this board.

[spikefader]

Hi Dave.

Looking forward to reading the thread. Welcome to the forum.

[DSteckler]

A buddy passed this one along to me. OXPS has a very high ERG rank of 270. "ERG" is a combination of EPS Rank, Relative Strength Rank, and Group Strength Rank. Here, it's 85+95+90 = 270. This ranking data comes from HGSI software, one of THE premier stock screening programs available and very reasonably priced. You can find out more about the software at www.highgrowthstock.com

[DSteckler]

CDIS is oil related, engaged in deepwater and shelf subsea construction. ERG = 281. Estimates for the upcoming quarter are up 43.66% YOY (year-over-year) and next quarter up 74.29% YOY.

I wouldn't be chasing it today; it's up 9.5% and that's late to jump in. A pullback to the 20-day EMA on decreasing volume could make a good entry price.

[DSteckler]

CONN is a retailer selling home appliances and consumer electronics. It closed Friday below its 20-day EMA but came roaring back today. ERG is a healthy 233. A negative is that the %A/D (an accumulation/distribution metric) is slightly distributive but today's action could reverse that. Earnings estimates for the January quarter are up 20.52%.

[mrmarket]

I have the urge to ERG

[DSteckler]

Well worth checking out their software, Ernie. IIRC, they offer a 30-day trial for $50 or so.

[Websman]

Any friend of Mr Markets is a friend of mine. Welcome!

[DSteckler]

But after the drubbing it took last week, this could be some short covering. Note that today's volume is lower than Thursday or Friday's of last week, both down days. Look for resistance at the 50DMA, about 13.35.

[DSteckler]

Thanks, Webs. Glad to be here.

[Lyehopper]

Dave Steckler is a legend on the AOL Experienced Investors forum. Now he's here sharing his ideas with us which makes me very very happy. Dave..please use this thread for your ongoing discussions. I'm sure you'll develop an eager fan club in a hurry.


Of course feel free to start new threads for separate stock picks if you'd like.
An AOL Legend!!!! WOW!!! dude! You must be HUUUUUGE!!!! did you ever meet a hot female "trading partner" over at AOL?.... oh.... sorry, a little inside $$MM$$ humor there.

WELCOME DAAAVE!!! I look forward to seeing a HUGE weekly stock pick in BillyJoe's POTW from you. And since you and Ernie are big pals and all.... maybe you can persuade his sorry arse to play sometime too.lol

[skiracer]

Dave,
Did MM pay you to come over here? You know he pays alot of us to stay here. LOL.

[Websman]

Dave,
Did MM pay you to come over here? You know he pays alot of us to stay here. LOL.

Dangitt Ski! You almost made me spill my glass of Apple Brandy! http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/biglaugh.gif (http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/misc.php?do=getsmilies&wysiwyg=0&forumid=5#)

[skiracer]

Dangitt Ski! You almost made me spill my glass of Apple Brandy! http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/biglaugh.gif (http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/misc.php?do=getsmilies&wysiwyg=0&forumid=5#)

Or knock over your bong!!!

[Lyehopper]

Dangitt Ski! You almost made me spill my glass of Apple Brandy! http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/biglaugh.gif (http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/misc.php?do=getsmilies&wysiwyg=0&forumid=5#)
LOL.... PLEASE!!!! don't spill that stuff Webs.... it'll eat a hole in the carpet. then your wife won't let you hang out with me anymore.

[skiracer]

LOL.... PLEASE!!!! don't spill that stuff Webs.... it'll eat a hole in the carpet. then your wife won't let you hang out with me anymore.

I think Lye is trying to get us all hooked on the apple brandy, then he would have control over the whole forum. I'm going to be looking to hookup for another fill. How will I get to sleep like a lamb without it now.

[IIC]

Saw your ERG rating thing.

I wish somebody (or maybe HGS does?) would factor estimates into their EPS rank. That is why I developed the IIC 100 which places strong emphasis on current EPS and projected EPS among some other criteria.

I just don't get excited with the IBD EPS rank...I could care less what a co. did 3-5 yrs ago...although they weight recent EPS a little more heavily.

Granted...Analysts overall might be out to lunch...but besides IR statements...what else do we have as far as estimates...Unless we project them ourselves?...Best, Doug(IIC)

[IIC]

Saw your ERG rating thing.

I wish somebody (or maybe HGS does?) would factor estimates into their EPS rank. That is why I developed the IIC 100 which places strong emphasis on current EPS and projected EPS among some other criteria.

I just don't get excited with the IBD EPS rank...I could care less what a co. did 3-5 yrs ago...although they weight recent EPS a little more heavily.

Granted...Analysts overall might be out to lunch...but besides IR statements...what else do we have as far as estimates...Unless we project them ourselves?...Best, Doug(IIC)


Just looked...they do have that option...that's good

[Lyehopper]

I think Lye is trying to get us all hooked on the apple brandy, then he would have control over the whole forum. I'm going to be looking to hookup for another fill. How will I get to sleep like a lamb without it now.
Control? ME?!!!.... Hey Ski, I didn't get my Jan. payment from $$MM$$ yet.... how bout you?.... I'm thinkin about going out on strike dude.... Now there's an Idea! let's organize a "poster's union" We'll call it the UBOSPP.... "United Brotherhood of stock pickin posters"....lol

[Websman]

I think Lye is trying to get us all hooked on the apple brandy, then he would have control over the whole forum. I'm going to be looking to hookup for another fill. How will I get to sleep like a lamb without it now.

I could sell the heck out of that stuff down here. Oh wait...That would be called bootlegging, wouldn't it? Oh well, gotta make a living somehow. :)

[IIC]

Control? ME?!!!.... Hey Ski, I didn't get my Jan. payment from $$MM$$ yet.... how bout you?.... I'm thinkin about going out on strike dude.... Now there's an Idea! let's organize a "poster's union" We'll call it the UBOSPP.... "United Brotherhood of stock pickin posters"....lol

I got mine...He even included a nice little Christmas Bonus...Maybe yours got lost in the mail?

[DSteckler]

<< I look forward to seeing a HUGE weekly stock pick in BillyJoe's POTW from you. >>

LOL! Sorry but I steer clear of posting weekly stock picks. Too many bumps can upset the apple cart between pick time and when the stock is sold (assuming it's even bought!)

[Lyehopper]

I got mine...He even included a nice little Christmas Bonus...Maybe yours got lost in the mail?
What are you tryin to say Doug?..... WAIT a minute.... He used to Fedex it to me.... hey!.... this dosen't look good.

[New-born baby]

Dave,
Welcome to the forum. I have been reading your posts and recommends, and have been impressed already. Keep up the great work!

I am sure you'll enjoy reading the posts of all these characters . . . er, I mean, incredibly sharp investors that frequent this forum.

[Lyehopper]

<< I look forward to seeing a HUGE weekly stock pick in BillyJoe's POTW from you. >>

LOL! Sorry but I steer clear of posting weekly stock picks. Too many bumps can upset the apple cart between pick time and when the stock is sold (assuming it's even bought!)
WHAT?!!!! You afraid to play with the big boys Dave? Skeerd to get them new trousers dirty? Maybe tear your shirt? hmmmmm? tell ya what! I'll let you borrow an old sweatshirt of mine and I promise not to tell your Mom you played...... OK for the first week we'll just play "touch" and if Webs knocks you down or something I'll get him for ya. OK?.... What-do-ya-say?.... It's just a game dude! Come ON! short or long.... just one pick a week. Rules are posted over there somewhere. SERIOUSLY!!! You'll love it dude.

~Lye

[Websman]

WHAT?!!!! You afraid to play with the big boys Dave? Skeerd to get them new trousers dirty? Maybe tear your shirt? hmmmmm? tell ya what! I'll let you borrow an old sweatshirt of mine and I promise not to tell your Mom you played...... OK for the first week we'll just play "touch" and if Webs knocks you down or something I'll get him for ya. OK?.... What-do-ya-say?.... It's just a game dude! Come ON! short or long.... just one pick a week. Rules are posted over there somewhere. SERIOUSLY!!! You'll love it dude.

~Lye

Were you ever an insurance salesman Lye? Hahaha!

[DSteckler]

Sorry, Lye, but no can do. I prefer to post about stocks I'm watching as well as observations on the markets. I don't post predictions, which is what a stock pick is.

[RL]

Welcome Dave glad to see you join the best forum on the net. While on IBD my handle was Hitmlong when I decided I had enough bs from so many knuckle heads I tried realy hard to get you on board with us but no luck and what do you think HERE YOU ARE IT'S GREAT.

[skiracer]

What are you tryin to say Doug?..... WAIT a minute.... He used to Fedex it to me.... hey!.... this dosen't look good.

Check out his latest post on the football games. He blew our bonuses on the games. We're shit out of luck.

[skiracer]

Sorry, Lye, but no can do. I prefer to post about stocks I'm watching as well as observations on the markets. I don't post predictions, which is what a stock pick is.

Dave,
Will you post your entries and positions after they setup the way you're looking for them to setup?

[Websman]

While on IBD my handle was Hitmlong

That was you? You were almost as hated as myself!

[skiracer]

I also remember that handle. It's been almost a year an a half since I gave it up over there. Seems everyone is gravitating to this forum. MM is like the Steinbrenner of forums. But no bonuses this year. Fooootball got it.

[DSteckler]

Dave,
Will you post your entries and positions after they setup the way you're looking for them to setup?

Shouldn't be a problem.

[IIC]

I also remember that handle. It's been almost a year an a half since I gave it up over there. Seems everyone is gravitating to this forum. MM is like the Steinbrenner of forums. But no bonuses this year. Fooootball got it.

Speak for yourself Ski...I was satisfied w/ my Bonus...Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

Speak for yourself Ski...I was satisfied w/ my Bonus...Doug(IIC)
didn't do you much good Doug.... just had to give it to your "trading partner".... bet you bought her a pair of TRLG jeans too. lol

[IIC]

didn't do you much good Doug.... just had to give it to your "trading partner".... bet you bought her a pair of TRLG jeans too. lol

Actually...since I'm becoming such a futures expert...I was thinking about going long March soybeans w/ my bonus http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060103/ap_on_bi_bo_of_tr/bot_1

[mrmarket]

Actually...since I'm becoming such a futures expert...I was thinking about going long March soybeans w/ my bonus http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060103/ap_on_bi_bo_of_tr/bot_1

Keep buying coffee and don't stop.

[IIC]

Keep buying coffee and don't stop.

Heck..SBUX has it cornered:

http://www.ktvu.com/foodnews/5797958/detail.html

http://abcnews.go.com/2020/GiveMeABreak/story?id=1390867&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312

How 'bout DougBux???

[DSteckler]

I use a variety of models I developed that buys various Rydex no-load mutual funds. The Asset Allocation model (annualized return since 1/1/03 = 24.16% vs. 11.76% for the SP 500; past performance is no guarantee of future returns) has now moved into Rydex US Gov't Bonds.

This model selects from among 14 Rydex funds, moving into whichever fund has the highest Alpha.

[DSteckler]

Here's a list of small float stocks with strong ERGs and a good looking chart:

BTJ (pulled back yesterday)
BOOM
ELTK
PARL
HITK

Please do your own due diligence (DD) before buying or selling any stock.

[mimo_100]

I look forward to reading your posts. MrMarket picks

are usually winners, so you are in a very select group.

Best wishes and good picking. I already like ERG as a measure.

Tim;)

[DSteckler]

Thanks, Tim.

[DSteckler]

Beautiful breakout this morning. DMI crossover went bullish yesterday and Volume Flow Indicator has turned higher, albeit still below the zero line.

[The Photon]

I agree your presence adds to the knowledge assets of these great analysts the mr marketishuge forum is the greatest stock board on the planet!! question: what is your location Dave? And what is your favorite stock media for following stocks IBD, wsj, web...? I have been here for about two years, I am a real newbe but it took me a year just to control emotion, I did'nt get hurt due to the observations of the pros on the board, and this year I a VERY thankful for my results and that an open forum of this nature exists.

[DSteckler]

Hi Photon,

I'm in St. Louis, MO. I get stock quotes and charting using TradeStation, stock selection filtering using High Growth Stock software, and fundamental data and news from a variety of web sources. I also IM and EM with a number of portfolio managers and research analysts over the course of the day.

[DSteckler]

A buddy told me about this one. Nice, tight consolidation zone for the past month and the chart has made a rising right triangle. ERG is a very respectable 249 and %A/D (a measure of accumulation/distribution) is a strong 51.9%.

The %A/D measures the strength of money flow in/out of a security or index. It's a proprietary formula that measures changes in price and volume over several time periods to arrive at a score for the particular security or index. A score of 100% means the security is under heavy accumulation. Likewise, a score of -100% means the security is under heavy distribution.

ROE is a very respectable 20.69% and institutional ownership is 58.5% of the float.

[DSteckler]

Back above it's 20-day EMA and moving through the resistance line of a falling flag. Could be setting up for a test of the Dec. high.

[DSteckler]

Another one I heard about from a buddy this morning. Steel is hot and IIIN has been in a very tight consolidation zone for months. Small float (just over 7 million shares), ROE is a strong 28.83% and the level of institutional ownership is only 36%.

IIIN made a stochastic pop today. For those unfamiliar with this indicator, it arises when the stochastic indicator goes above the 70 to 80 level. Instead of reversing, however, the stock tends to pop and momentum continues to rise.

Setup Conditions

I identify a Stochastic Pop setup when the following set of conditions occur:

1) Recent price action in a tight daily consolidation range;
2) Daily ADX below 20 (preferably below 15);
3) Daily stochastic %K above 70 (preferably above 80) and rising;
4) Weekly stochastic %K above 50 and rising;
5) Stock breakout on above average volume; and
6) Bullish market conditions.

The Stochastic Pop is not a new technical indicator or technique. Jake Bernstein wrote about this phenomenon years ago. The setup conditions I added are refinements that increase the odds of success by requiring confirming signals from both the daily average directional index (ADX) and weekly stochastic signals. Keep in mind, of course, that the past performance of this strategy is not an indication of future success.

[DSteckler]

Followup from yesterday. Back through the 50DMA and 20-day EMA on average volume. A volatile sucker but let's see how it closes.

[The Photon]

I may have to go the the library this afternoon this is getting heavy!

[DSteckler]

Bullish engulfing bar (so far) today but a V-botttom reversal on 12/13, which scares me. At least it's back through the 50DMA.

[DSteckler]

Nice breakout from a 4-week consolidation zone. Note how the 20-day EMA served as support on recent tests (11/8 - 11/9 and 12/14 - 12/15). Crossovers through this EMA are a great early-warning sign that a short-term trend change is in progress. Concommitantly, this EMA usually holds as support/resistance when tested, if the trend is strong.

ERG is a tasty 261. The %A/D is a strong 55.6%.

The %OScore (Optics Score) is solid at 45%. This metric scores a security by analyzing the current and historical EPS and Revenue of the security for consistent, continuous, consecutive improvements in EPS and Revenue over a period of 8 quarters.

Four individual component scores are computed:

Consecutive Quarterly Improvement to EPS,

Consecutive Quarterly Improvement to Revenue,

Consecutive Yearly Improvement for EPS, and

Consecutive Yearly Improvement for Revenue.

"Yearly" is computed by using current quarter to the same quarter one year ago

The four component scores are summed for each security. The score is turned into a percentage between 0% (very weak) and 0% (very strong).

[Websman]

I can tell already that you're thread is going to be very popular. Good stuff!

Thanks!

[Runner]

Stec, welcome to the forum looking forward to reading your thread!!!

[DSteckler]

A buddy told me about this one. Nice, tight consolidation zone for the past month and the chart has made a rising right triangle. ERG is a very respectable 249 and %A/D (a measure of accumulation/distribution) is a strong 51.9%.

The %A/D measures the strength of money flow in/out of a security or index. It's a proprietary formula that measures changes in price and volume over several time periods to arrive at a score for the particular security or index. A score of 100% means the security is under heavy accumulation. Likewise, a score of -100% means the security is under heavy distribution.

ROE is a very respectable 20.69% and institutional ownership is 58.5% of the float.

Closed above the consolidation zone on rising volume, better than the 50-day ADV (average daily volume) for the first time in weeks. Decreasing volume in a consolidation zone is usually bullish.

Note also how NETL been bouncing off its 20-day EMA support line for several weeks now. This EMA is a real "canary in the coal mine," folks - when it holds support for a period of time despite multiple tests, the odds that the stock will be moving higher are pretty good.

[IIC]

Beautiful breakout this morning. DMI crossover went bullish yesterday and Volume Flow Indicator has turned higher, albeit still below the zero line.

Of course it Broke Out...Because I sold it a couple of weeks ago...but no complaints I made a buck in less than a week.

BTW...Just remember..."If you wanna get rich...Just buy what IIC sells"

Heck...I sold RELV a couple of weeks ago in the 10's after holding it a year and a half...closed at 13.99 today...IIC

[DSteckler]

A couple of new additions to the list that look good.

PTC (closed back above its 50DMA yesterday)
ADAM (big move yesterday)

[DSteckler]

Cleanly through the resistance line of the descending trend channel. The channel is about 35 cents deep and the pivot price was about 3.25, so the target objective is around 3.60.

[DSteckler]

China stocks are hot and CAAS is starting to break out of a coil pattern. Clearing the 20-day EMA will be confirmation.

[DSteckler]

Following through on yesterday's breakout. The weekly chart is starting to look extended, though.

[DSteckler]

Worth keeping an eye on the housing stocks, IMO. The housing index ($HGX) has formed a triple top (starting in early October) and a rising right triangle.

[DSteckler]

Breaking out of a tight congestion zone. Very low ADX (11.35) suggests that the move will be significant. DMI crossover went bullish today and the Volume Flow Indicator turned bullish (upside cross through the 0 line) yesterday. Resistance is the 200DMA, about 782.

[DSteckler]

RTP, which has formed an island top reversal. Could find support at the 20-day EMA, around 180.

[New-born baby]

Breaking out of a tight congestion zone. Very low ADX (11.35) suggests that the move will be significant. DMI crossover went bullish today and the Volume Flow Indicator turned bullish (upside cross through the 0 line) yesterday. Resistance is the 200DMA, about 782.

Nice call on a cheap stock. I noticed that NVR busted out of a symmetrical triangle formation, and the price target is roughly $820.

[DSteckler]

BZH broke out of a shallow continuation H&S pattern and has a target objective of around 81 (distance between the neckline and head added to the breakout price).

RYL is close to breaking out through a double top/rectangular base. If successful, the measured move is the height of the rectangle (6.65) added to the resistance line (around 77.25) for a target objective of 83.90.

[ParkTwain]

Breaking out of a tight congestion zone. Very low ADX (11.35) suggests that the move will be significant. DMI crossover went bullish today and the Volume Flow Indicator turned bullish (upside cross through the 0 line) yesterday. Resistance is the 200DMA, about 782.


IMHO
buy NVR above 750 for a hold to as high as 900, where the next highest actual resistance is found.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=nvr,uu[h,a]daolyyay[dc][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ll14]&pref=G
(paste this entire URL into your browser's URL field)


Turnaround in the homebuilders is based on the market's anticipation of an end to Fed rate hikes by March 2006, with potential for rate drops later in 2006.

[DSteckler]

Breakout yesterday and followthrough today. Volume today is almost 2X ADV. Note how the 20-day EMA has been solid support every time it was touched, since early November.

[DSteckler]

GNT is definitely worth keeping an eye on. A biopharm with $24 million in cash, they are working on a drug to treat VOD (veno-occlusive disease). This disease causes blood vessels to swell, which can lead to multiple-organ failure. It received orphan drug status from the FDA and has been approved and is used in Italy.

The tests that have been done so far have been so successful that the company received two grants from the FDA to speed testing and approval of the drug. The potential sales for this drug (and others) is very large for a company this size.

The stock has a thin float (8 million shares) and an average daily volume of only 8,400 shares. A physician friend who researches biopharms very carefully thinks GNT would be cheap at twice the current price, but take that with a grain of salt.

Chart-wise, the overall trend has been lower since the IPO last summer. The past few months it's been bouncing back and forth through its 20-day EMA while trending lower.

[DSteckler]

Schweet move!

[DSteckler]

Breakout from a three-day consolidation around the 50DMA. I'm looking for a test of the November high.

[sisterwin2]

I told myself about six months ago, "self, to learn you will look up evey stock mentioned on this site", whewwwww been looking up alot.

Welcome to the club DSteckler, I am new to the trading world and see that your going to fill my evenings. Who needed a life anyway.

Enjoying your post,

[DSteckler]

Dena, looking up every stock mentioned by everyone has its usefulness but it can also leave you dazed and confused.

Every trader/investor has a different style. What works for me will not necessarily work for you, and vice versa. To narrow your focus begin by asking yourself the following questions:

1. Am I investing money I can afford to lose or is this my nest egg?

2. What is my tolerance for risk - if I sold a single investment for a 10% loss, would I have trouble sleeping? What about a 20% loss? A 30% loss?

3. How many positions do I want to hold at any one time?

4. How long do I typically hold (or want to hold) a position - a few days, a few weeks, or a few months?

5. Do I want to sit on front of a quote screen all day long and sweat out every tick in the stocks I own, or do I want a life outside the market?

6. Do I want to actively manage my investments or do I prefer more of a "fly on autopilot" approach?

Once you've answered these questions you'll have a better idea of your investment goals and objectives (IG&O). You'll then be able to spend more time analyzing the selections made by posters who have an IG&O similar to yours.

For example, assume you decide that you're comfortable with an intermediate-term hold time. If that were the case it wouldn't be an efficient use of your time to research my Cooper 1-2-3-4 pullback stocks, since they're typically held for just a few days.

Narrowing your focus will leave you time to more deeply research stocks that you may choose to buy and still have time for a life outside the market.

[IIC]

That's very good advice.

Dena...and whoever...I'd just like to say that managing your investments is a job. In my case I consider it a fun job...But never the less it takes a lot of work.

I met some people at the the Trader's Expo, in fact quite a few of them, who were looking for the "Holy Grail"...That "magical" system that will automatically let them earn 100% a year. I actually felt sorry for them...Even my wife who hung out with me part of the time mentioned that.

In my case, even though I work over 40 hrs a week at my regular job...I spend about 30 hrs a week (and sometimes more) looking at charts, reading, studying etc.

Now, I realize that most people with a Real Life are not going to spend that much time unless they work in the Investment field...And to do well it really doesn't take that many hours...I would suggest that you focus on your investment objectives and spend an average of about at least 7-10hrs a week.

I for one have numerous styles that I use...Day Trading, Swing Trading and intermediate/longer term trading...As you may have read...I am now learning the e-mini game. To start I think you should choose only one and learn it well...Probably Intermediate/Long Term.

I don't think it is really practical to check out every stock on this or any other board. Get a feel for what styles others use and concentrate on following their pix or lists if they post the types you are looking for.

I've been investing seriously since '83 and much longer than that on an occasional basis. And 'ya know what, when I got onto the boards back in '97 I started finding people that seemed to be right so often...And then in 2001 I starting running into some real sharp people. I remember a few times that I bot some stocks just because these "sharp" people mentioned that they bot 'em...Well, guess what?...I lost money on every single one of them...When I posted about them I heard things like..."Oh...I sold that last week". The whole point is that make sure you do your own DD before buying a stock that someone who seems sharp (Or actually may be sharp) posts.

Also, be in no rush...I'd much rather miss a gainer than end up with a loser.

And finally, as Dave says...Know your risk tolerance. There is absolutely no good reason to lose any sleep over your inevitable losses...It isn't worth it.

Finally...and I'm repeating what Dave was talking about...Determine your objectives, develop your criteria and FOCUS. Do not be afraid to be flexible or adapt to market conditions...But make changes gradually...Analyze what you can do to improve...but take it slow...Don't abruptly make a change just because someone else does it that way...There's no rush...The market will always be there...Best, Doug(IIC)

[dmk112]

Worth keeping an eye on the housing stocks, IMO. The housing index ($HGX) has formed a triple top (starting in early October) and a rising right triangle.

Interesting, I heard the same thing during a radio show today. Good work!

[DSteckler]

Which radio show? There are a couple of nationally syndicated guys on the radio who take their cue from one of the Barron's writers, who takes some of his cues from stuff I send him. <BG>

[Runner]

That's very good advice.
I've been investing seriously since '83 and much longer than that on an occasional basis. And 'ya know what, when I got onto the boards back in '97 I started finding people that seemed to be right so often...And then in 2001 I starting running into some real sharp people. I remember a few times that I bot some stocks just because these "sharp" people mentioned that they bot 'em...Well, guess what?...I lost money on every single one of them...When I posted about them I heard things like..."Oh...I sold that last week". The whole point is that make sure you do your own DD before buying a stock that someone who seems sharp (Or actually may be sharp) posts.

(IIC)
Awesome stuff their Doug. You could take everybody on this forum and all get in a stock at the same price and guess what? We all would have different results. Emotions is one powerful monster in the markets!!

[dmk112]

Which radio show? There are a couple of nationally syndicated guys on the radio who take their cue from one of the Barron's writers, who takes some of his cues from stuff I send him. <BG>

LOL. Investors Edge with Gary Kaltbaum.

[DSteckler]

Look like they will sum up to a positive return. According to the old investing chestnut, that means 2006 will turn in a positive return.

[DSteckler]

PARL - a stochastic pop setup today. Very high %OScore of 65%.

[DSteckler]

XOI bumping up against the resistance line of a rising trend channel.

[Lyehopper]

I own this stock, I first bought it in the summer of "04" around $8.... tremendous insider buying at that time caught my attention.... PARL has a high short interest % and it's a little speculative. Be careful and don't bet the farm an this one. But hey.... if it does break out.... WATCH OUT!!!!

[DSteckler]

ATML reached my short-term target of $3.65 so I closed the position (9.4% in two days). Will look to reenter on a pullback.

AMLN broke out on very heavy volume, currently more than 2X ADV.

Only real soft spot in the trading portfolio is BZH. The homebuilders index is making an inside day.

[DSteckler]

O&G company that's breaking out on a little better than average volume. Technicals look good. ERG is a very high 284. RS rank = 94 so if it moves up one more point, a pullback could be the start of a Cooper 1-2-3-4 pattern.

[DSteckler]

Nice continuation from Wednesday's big breakout. It's run up to the 1.618% Fibonacci extension level of the 7/8/05 - 9/26/05 decline.

GIGM is well above the resistance line of the former rising trend channel and I have the next Fibonacci extension target around 4.75. The stock will need to close above 3.65 before a test of that level is likely to happen.

[DSteckler]

Nice breakout in this electrical cable company. Estimates for the upcoming quarter are +63.64% vs. year ago and +23.94% for the next quarter. The Revenue % Change is accelerating, which is very bullish. This is another stock with RS rank = 94 so here too, one point higher and any pullback will be treated as a Cooper 1-2-3-4 candidate.

[DSteckler]

Setting up to be a failed breakout? If that happens a test of the 20-day EMA is almost a given and a pullback to the 50DMA is very possible.

[DSteckler]

Wide range today and a closed just above the open. A spinning top, in Japanese candlestick parlance. Usually interpreted as a sign of indecision and a possible topping signal when at the end of an uptrend.

OTOH, the move from late September to 12/2 is an A Wave, from 12/2 to today a B Wave, and today could be the start of the C Wave.

[DSteckler]

Cleared the coil resistance line and halted today almost exactly on the 38.2% retracement line of the 11/22 - 12/20 decline. Next resistance level is the 50%, around 8.20.

[DSteckler]

<< GIGM is well above the resistance line of the former rising trend channel and I have the next Fibonacci extension target around 4.75. The stock will need to close above 3.65 before a test of that level is likely to happen. >>

Done. Closed today at 3.80, up 19%, a real monster.

[DSteckler]

Enjoy, everyone!

[DSteckler]

Does anyone know if GIGM was chatted up on any boards or services today? Sure seems that way.

[DSteckler]

JFR
AEOS
JOSB
MKC
SXT
JTP



1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the low of (2).

[mystiky]

I finally got over to your own board, although you replied to me a few times over on Spike's board. All I just want to say is a big thank you for your great ideas and comments.

Willing and able to learn...

[DSteckler]

Glad to contribute, Mystiky.

[sekto]

JFR
AEOS
JOSB
MKC
SXT
JTP



1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the low of (2).

Hey dsteckler, can you give me an example of what this looks like on the chart so i know what to look for? thanks

[DSteckler]

This chart shows two examples of bowtie crossovers, the first down and the second up.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=38161&u=dave&a=MyCharts&id=690

The white ellipses show where the crossover occurred.

[DSteckler]

Looking at that chart I see where it's very difficult to see the blue 30-day EMA . Look carefully and you'll see it; it's almost blue-black.

[DSteckler]

But anything can happen between now and 9:30 tomorow morning.

[DSteckler]

BTU - coal. Black diamonds, etc. <g>. Phenomenal earnings growth for the upcoming quarter and next (up 90.91% and 333.33% respectively, YOY). Action on Thursday and Friday was one of hesitancy and you just know the market is going to have a few days of weakness to take in some of last week's profits. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

GRP - O&G. Forming a mini-coil. Also great estimates for the next two quarters (up 147.62% and 93.1% respectively, YOY). Extremely high ERG (290) and %A/D = 68.8%, %OScore = 80%. Energy stocks look a little weak pre-market.

LMS - construction. Stock traded in a very tight range Wednesday - Friday. It pulled back from its high in mid-December and has now retraced 50% of that pullback. Estimates for the upcoming quarter are up 716.70% vs. year ago.

[DSteckler]

Has made a beautiful run since the V-spike bottom of 8.25 but volume has been diminishing as MESA moves higher. If you're long, placing or raising your stop wouldn't be a bad idea.

[DSteckler]

Just announced great earnings report and 2006 outlook. Stock is up 6% pre-market. Will be interesting to see if this holds or if it is sold into during the opening 30 minutes.

[DSteckler]

On the 30-minute chart. A pullback to the 20-bar EMA could make a nice entry price.

[DSteckler]

Huge gap open higher on CERS. Up 13%; no news that I could find.

[DSteckler]

GRP seems to have stabilized around 47.95 on the 30-minute chart. Think I'll pick up some shares and see how it plays out.

[DSteckler]

Nice upside reversal today. Let's see if it can regain some of the momentum it lost Friday.

[DSteckler]

And a 13.6% dividend.

[dmk112]

Nice upside reversal today. Let's see if it can regain some of the momentum it lost Friday.

I watched it this morning reverse but failed to pull the trigger :(

[DSteckler]

For a 50 cent loss.

[dmk112]

For a 50 cent loss.


Looks like oil sector reversed from the morning.

[DSteckler]

Yup. I mentioned pre-market that several energy stocks were trading lower.

[DSteckler]

HGX clears the horizontal resistance line of the rising triangle with a vengeance. Target objective is around 620.

[DSteckler]

BEL clears the double top resistance of the rectangular base. The base was 42 cents wide so add that to the breakout price of 3.32 for a target objective of 3.74.

[mrmarket]

BEL clears the double top resistance of the rectangular base. The base was 42 cents wide so add that to the breakout price of 3.32 for a target objective of 3.74.

I love BEL.

[DSteckler]

I do too...maybe it's because my belly makes me shaped like a Bell Curve....<VBG>

[DSteckler]

GE hasn't confirmed the Dow Industrials move since mid-November and historically, as goes GE so goes the DJIA.

[DSteckler]

Easiest way to do it is by purchasing Profunds new inverse precious metals fund. Symbols are SPPIX and SPPSX.

[DSteckler]

Pissed that I missed this one.

[DSteckler]

Nice breakout on almost 1.5X ADV. Daily technicals support the breakout.

[DSteckler]

Broke out of a coil today. Breakout is suspect, however, since volume is only half the ADV.

[DSteckler]

Resistance at the 200DMA, around 782.

[DSteckler]

Easily cleared its 50DMA on average volume. Volume Flow Indicator turned positive today and very low daily ADX (12.58) suggests that the breakout, regardless of direction, will be strong. The 52-week high is 14.65 and todays high was 14.45.

[RL]

Dave would like your advice. Looks like the market could have a decent run but no one knows for sure. A'm I better off holding 6 top stocks or should I try to swing trade? Anyone else reading this would like your In put also.

[DSteckler]

<< A'm I better off holding 6 top stocks or should I try to swing trade? >>

Ray, it would be foolish of me or anyone else to answer that question without much more information from you. For example, are you independently wealthy with a seven figure net worth or living paycheck to paycheck? Have 12 mouths to feed or single with no family obligations? Age 35 and in the pink of health or age 99 with one foot in the grave?

My facetious point is that if you're asking that question, it wouldn't be a bad idea for you to sit down with a certified financial planner and asking him or her for an analysis of your financial situation. Only after that is completed would you be ready for an answer to that question.

[mystiky]

Hi,

I was wondering if you have any further comments about TRAD. You replied in Spike's group last Friday that "Connect the 11/14 and 12/6 highs and draw a trendline. It runs up to about 15.50, just above where TRAD closed today. Will be interesting to see what happens Monday."

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=35473&postcount=5981

Looks like TRAD had it's nice debut at #9 on the IBD100. But, it seems like towards the 2nd part of the day, more and more sellers started to appear.

It closed at 15.73, which is FURTHER AWAY from the DAY HIGH (16.25) than the day LOW (15.42). So, its not as bullish as the previous 3 or 4 closes, which were almost all at the high of the day at the close. Also, the stochastics look really overbought on the short-term. Hey, its gone up from 12.40 (low print) to 16.25 (top print) during these first 5 days of 2006!

Is it forming a SHOOTING-STAR DOJI?

I am seeing short-term support at 15.50, 15.30 and then probably 15. If one was to short it near $16 tommorow on any gapup, would it be a prudent play for a $1 or $1.50 gain?

[dmk112]

<< A'm I better off holding 6 top stocks or should I try to swing trade? >>

Ray, it would be foolish of me or anyone else to answer that question without much more information from you. For example, are you independently wealthy with a seven figure net worth or living paycheck to paycheck? Have 12 mouths to feed or single with no family obligations? Age 35 and in the pink of health or age 99 with one foot in the grave?

My facetious point is that if you're asking that question, it wouldn't be a bad idea for you to sit down with a certified financial planner and asking him or her for an analysis of your financial situation. Only after that is completed would you be ready for an answer to that question.


Dave which style would your recommend for the different types of people you mentioned?

[RL]

Dave I'm retired and have already feed 4 mouths they have thier educations and are all better healed than I am. I have apox. 35k to play with however have no more to add to It.I enjoy the trading [gambling] however naturally trying to make money not here to give It away only wanted to know If you felt I could make more by holding during a good market or trading? I realize something catastrophic could happen or I could wake up on a cloud at any time.However you answer this Is not gosepel or If you choose to not answer It at all we will remain friends on this forum.

[Runner]

Broke out of a coil today. Breakout is suspect, however, since volume is only half the ADV.
Dave, what is a coil?

[Runner]

Dave, I forgot to welcome you to the forum. Welcome and I look forward to learning a lot from you and your team. I have a question. What are some of your thoughts regarding exit strategies? It seems we all place much effort in the set-ups and little on the exit. I’ve herd it is because we feel in control on the entry is this true? What are some of your exit rules or strategies? I use to think I could pick out the tops but the market has a way of making fools out of us.

Thanks,
runneR

[DSteckler]

<< Is it forming a SHOOTING-STAR DOJI? >>

That's a shooting star. A doji is a candlestick where the open and close are the same price. That wasn't the case with TRAD although the O/C prices were close to each other. Shooting star candlesticks are bearish in an uptrend.

<< I am seeing short-term support at 15.50, 15.30 and then probably 15. If one was to short it near $16 tommorow on any gapup, would it be a prudent play for a $1 or $1.50 gain? >>

Sure. You're talking about a 6% - 9% gain. On a swing or day trade, that's a great return.

[DSteckler]

<< If you felt I could make more by holding during a good market or trading? >>

Ray, I don't mean to be evasive or deliberately not answer but it takes a lot more than the answers to a few questions to properly advise you. Seriously, you should be asking your question to a certified financial planner who can ask the questions you needed to be asked, and answered, in order to give you a useful recommendation.

Trust me on this, I've been down this road many times before with clients.

[DSteckler]

<< Dave which style would your recommend for the different types of people you mentioned? >>

Welcome to Investment Planning 101. LOL! I'm sorry but the answer would take pages for me to properly explain what styles would be suitable for each type of investors in my example.

[DSteckler]

<< Dave, what is a coil? >>

A coil is a pennant-like formation that can develop over a period of time that may be as short as a few bars or as long as several months. The pattern differs from a pennant in that there is no preceding sharp upswing in price - that is, there's no "pole." A good example of a coil is a symmetrical triangle.

Coils are consolidation (rather than continuation) patterns because of their tight trading patterns, with lower highs and higher lows. It is a largely unpredictable pattern because prices can break out in either direction; buyers and sellers are about equal in strength. I look at various technical indicators to help gauge in which direction the coil is likely to break out.

[DSteckler]

Runner, my wife is hollaring at me to take the dogs out for a walk. I'll get back to you on this in the morning.

[Runner]

Well heck now I know what a coil is. I even trade the set-up with trigger line above proceeding days high. In fact I found that formation happens very often. I saw it in APPL. I just figured that the coil was more likely then not to follow the longer-term trend. Based on the direction of the coil I think I received 5 signals on AAPL since Oct. I figured the gap down in Dec was a caution signal but the 30ema held and popped off it.

Thanks for giving me the TA coil definition.

[Runner]

<< Dave, what is a coil? >>

A coil is a pennant-like formation that can develop over a period of time that may be as short as a few bars or as long as several months. The pattern differs from a pennant in that there is no preceding sharp upswing in price - that is, there's no "pole." A good example of a coil is a symmetrical triangle.

Coils are consolidation (rather than continuation) patterns because of their tight trading patterns, with lower highs and higher lows. It is a largely unpredictable pattern because prices can break out in either direction; buyers and sellers are about equal in strength. I look at various technical indicators to help gauge in which direction the coil is likely to break out.


I got it now Dave. I like these coil things!!

[Runner]

Here is my example of the awesome COIL
http://img280.imageshack.us/img280/1452/aapl3vx.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

On second thought AAPL does not fit the coil pattern because the move is a continuation move fr the larger trend? What is the formation pattern I have on APPL? I just thought it was a pullback

[DSteckler]

The move from October through mid-December was a rising trend channel. The move since then is a broadening top pattern (higher highs and lower lows). This pattern is found during the distribution phase of a stock's lifecycle.

[DSteckler]

The type of exits I use, if any, depend upon what strategy is in play.

Swing trades like the Cooper 1-2-3-4 selections use a sell stop of one or two ticks below the low of the day prior to the entry day. I sell half the shares once my reward equals my risk. E.g., if the sell stop is 1 point below entry, I sell half the shares after a 1 point gain. I then raise the stop to breakeven on the remaining shares and if the stock continues to rise, change that to a trailing stop. The trade usually exits after 3 - 5 days.

For my position trades which are typically held a few weeks to a few months, I don't use stops at all. The stocks are selected via fundamental filter screens (two value, two growth) and the position is held as long as the stock continues to appear on the screen. I run the screens once a month, at different times of the month depending upon the screen. Once the stock no longer appears on the screen, I exit the position.

An obvious question arisies here - what about a collapse or a swift drop in price? Do you still hold the position? The answer is yes. I manage risk in my position trades by typically holding 50 - 75 stocks at a time. Rarely does any one stock account for more than 2% of that portfolio so even if one stock fell to zero, it wouldn't too adversely affect my portfolio's value. The fip side is that a blowout to the upside doesn't help that much; basically, all gains/losses are incremental to the portfolio. My goal is to have steady returns even if that means the average return is smaller.

We've all seen times where we get stopped out and a few days or a week (or hours!) the stock is back above our exit price, sometimes substantially so. I decided a long time ago to eliminate the whipsawing by holding position trades as long as the stock continues to meet the criteria of my fundamental filter screens, regardless of its price action. Don't believe for a minute that the MMs don't pick off stops.

My Rydex fund positions have sell stops varying between 0% and 10%, depending upon the system. The positions are held for a predetermined number of days regardless of price action. After that time period has expired the position is held as long as: 1) it hasn't dropped more than "x" percent below entry price; or 2) it hasn't dropped more than "y" percent below the high price since entry; or 3) the Alpha of the fund is above a predetermined value. If any of these three conditions are met, the position is sold.

My ETF positions exit based on the same type of criteria as the Rydex fund positions.

[DSteckler]

These charts look pretty good.

PTC
GROW
PARL
ATEA

NURO has retraced 50% of it's decline between the 11/23 high and the 12/27 low. It's sitting just below its 50DMA and if it trades above it, may bring in some technical buying.

[Runner]

Very interesting approach Dave. So basically you run your position trades for as long as they hit your screen. Only criteria used to exit is once it drops off screen.? I guess I could understand this approach if your holding 50-75 stocks. Looks like you have a few things in common with MM as far as diversity. With that many positions open at one time how do you handle the diversity on selection exposure. Example if 20 screen returns appear in energy how do you manage the exposure that you do not have to much weight in any one area? Is sector action important to you?
Do you have a system that you select a certain part of you port as large,mid, and small cap? Thanks for sharing. I’m always interested on exit plans as this is what counts maybe more then the entry.

[DSteckler]

<< if 20 screen returns appear in energy how do you manage the exposure that you do not have to much weight in any one area? Is sector action important to you? >>

Good question! Fortunately, the screens usually don't overweight in any one sector although early last year I was holding a large number of housing stocks. Worked out okay but I gave back about 2/3 of the gains before the stocks dropped off the screens.

<< Do you have a system that you select a certain part of you port as large,mid, and small cap? >>

No. I think that works to the detriment of the trader/investor, although there are plenty of financial planners who disagree with me. Maybe that's why my returns are better than theirs <VBG>.

[DSteckler]

<< Is sector action important to you? >>

Funny you should ask that. I developed three Rydex models, one of which is a sector rotation model. It buys from among 14 Rydex sector funds, so yes, sector action is important to me! In the position portfolios it is not as important; I buy what the screens tell me to buy and they've rarely been overweighted in any one or two sectors.

[DSteckler]

Phelps Dodge Slashes 4Q Profit Forecast

PHOENIX (AP) - Phelps Dodge Corp., one of the world's largest copper producers, said Tuesday fourth-quarter earnings will fall well below previous expectations, with higher copper prices, shortfalls in production and sales, and more one-time costs dragging down profits.


The company cut its earnings estimate to $1 to $1.30 per share for the quarter, down sharply from a prior forecast of $4.15 to $4.40 per share.


Phelps Dodge's new estimate includes a one-time charge of about $2.05 per share, whereas the previous forecast included a special charge of just 23 cents per share.


Shares of the company tumbled $14.30, or 9.3 percent, in electronic activity before the markets opened after closing Monday at $154.55.


Analysts, on average, have forecast Phelps' earnings at $4.76 per share for the quarter, excluding one-time items, according to Thomson Financial.


Phelps said its new estimate takes into account higher copper prices for the period that were offset by a price protection plan the company has in place, as well as shortfalls in production and sales of copper and molybdenum, a metal used as an alloy to strengthen steel and make it less susceptible to rust and corrosion.


The new forecast also includes more one-time costs that the company hadn't yet calculated when it issued its prior forecast in October, such as taxes on repatriated earnings from its South American mining operations and charges related to asset sales.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It will be interesting to see if this spills over to other copper/metal stocks. The Mining - Misc. Ores group has been on a tear since late November. A 38.2% pullback of the move from the May low to yesterday's high brings the index back to around 108.38, just below its 200DMA.

There could be some good shorting opportunites in the group. Stocks in the group are:

AA
AAUK
ACO
AL
ANO
AWC
BBL
BHP
BVN
CCJ
CLF
CMP
CUP
DMLP
FAL
FCX
FNX
FRG
GNI
HL
INDEX
IVN
LCC
MDM
MSB
MXM
N
NGD
PAL
PCU
PD
RBY
RIO
RLO
RTP
SWC
WTZ

[RL]

Dave I never thought you were being evasive, guess I was looking for that golden egg without the work. Thats why when I was In business the young guys would all ways ask me how to be successful It's just hard work. As for the market I have read and read but It don't seem to sink In. So think I'll buy a stock that will go up In the long run and also swing trade It at the same time.Have a good day Dave I can see by the number of posts you are sure busy. Thanks for your time. HAVE A GOOD DAY catch you later.

[DSteckler]

A tiddler that almost trades by appointment only, up 2.5% this morning.

[DSteckler]

Let's see if it works out this time.

[DSteckler]

Making a new high. Volume is very strong for so early in the day.

[skiracer]

<worked out ok but I gave back about 2/3 of the gains before the stocks dropped of the screens>

Dave,
Not trying to knock you but I can't imagine giving back 2/3 of a position once I have those gains. Are these stocks that are in your long term portfolio? If they are do you set trailing stops to protect those gains if you have them. I know these positions will trend up and down over time but that seems like losing out on alot of your gains. Would it be that hard to place some type of trailing stop on them to help protect those gains without getting stopped out to frequently in the midst of an uptrending stock. You can always re-enter if you were to get stopped out. Just an observation.

[DSteckler]

<< I can't imagine giving back 2/3 of a position once I have those gains. Are these stocks that are in your long term portfolio? If they are do you set trailing stops to protect those gains if you have them. >>

That was an unusual situation. Yes, these are stocks in a longer-term (weeks to months) portfolio. I do not set a trailing stop on these; many more times than not a trailing stop would have gotten me out too early, leaving a lot of potential profit behind. When you're managing a 50 - 75 psoition portfolio (that doesn't include the 15 - 25 swing positions I typically hold), it isn't practical to be constantly entering and exiting positions. More often than not the money is made by holding, not trading.

[skiracer]

<< I can't imagine giving back 2/3 of a position once I have those gains. Are these stocks that are in your long term portfolio? If they are do you set trailing stops to protect those gains if you have them. >>

That was an unusual situation. Yes, these are stocks in a longer-term (weeks to months) portfolio. I do not set a trailing stop on these; many more times than not a trailing stop would have gotten me out too early, leaving a lot of potential profit behind. When you're managing a 50 - 75 psoition portfolio (that doesn't include the 15 - 25 swing positions I typically hold), it isn't practical to be constantly entering and exiting positions. More often than not the money is made by holding, not trading.

I can appreciate the situation of holding that many stocks etc.. It would just bother me giving back that much. Especially watching it happen over the course of a few days or week or two.

[DSteckler]

Giving back 4 or 5 points doesn't hurt much when you see stocks that had you sold them, you would have missed a 20 - 25 point (or more) gain. Case in point - NVR. I'm long at $682.50 and had I used a trailing stop, I would have been out around $720. The stock is now at $787.27.

[DSteckler]

ATML has formed a coil, although an argument can be made it also formed a pennant.

[Runner]

ATML has formed a coil, although an argument can be made it also formed a pennant.
ATML looks nice to me! Sub-Sector in rocket mode

[Runner]

MEM CHIPS (sub-group)
http://img395.imageshack.us/img395/5469/chips7ji.png

[skiracer]

Giving back 4 or 5 points doesn't hurt much when you see stocks that had you sold them, you would have missed a 20 - 25 point (or more) gain. Case in point - NVR. I'm long at $682.50 and had I used a trailing stop, I would have been out around $720. The stock is now at $787.27.

Dave,
That's great. Good luck.

[Runner]

Dave what ya think of some of these stocks
RMBS SNDK MIPS SIMG ATML FLSH NETL

[DSteckler]

Easy way to play the group is with PKB, a relatively new ETF.

[DSteckler]

RMBS - double the 200DMA. Stocks that extended are flashing a warning sign that the odds greatly favor a pullback. Too late to enter, IMO; tighten your stop if you're long.

SNDK - action yesterday and today signals indecision.

MIPS - has run into resistance at the 200DMA, which it hasn't been able to get and stay above since April. I'd wait and watch a few days to see what happens this time.

SIMG - under accumulation. A pullback to the 200DMA could make a good place to start buying.

ATML - see my comments from earlier today.

FLSH - stochastic pop yesterday and last Thursday. The odds favor a continuation of the move but it could pull back a couple of points before that happens.

NETL - I was stopped out a few days ago and while it's up almost 3% today, the volume is anemic.

[Runner]

Thanks Dave, will stalk some of these for a posible P/B. I see SNDK might be in a 3rd move up and could P/B soon. Heck I think the group as a whole might P/B here soon.

[DSteckler]

The holdings for the building and construction ETF:

% of Index

Consumer Discretionary
(44.27%) KBH KB Home 5.81%
DHI D.R. Horton Inc. 5.71%
TOL Toll Brothers Inc. 5.66%
PHM Pulte Homes Inc. 5.34%
HD Home Depot Inc. 5.03%
RYL Ryland Group Inc. 3.04%
NVR NVR Inc. 2.96%
BMHC Building Materials Holding Corp. 2.71%
CHB Champion Enterprises Inc. 2.70%
WLS William Lyon Homes Inc. 2.69%
POOL SCP Pool Corp. 2.62%


Industrials
(49.77%) CAT Caterpillar Inc. 5.56%
FLR Fluor Corp. 5.55%
BLDR Builders FirstSource Inc. 3.14%
USG USG Corp. 3.13%
JEC Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. 3.12%
MTW Manitowoc Co. 3.11%
EME EMCOR Group Inc. 3.07%
VMI Valmont Industries Inc. 3.02%
WGII Washington Group International Inc. 3.02%
LII Lennox International Inc. 2.96%
TEX Terex Corp. 2.92%
GVA Granite Construction Inc. 2.84%
CAE Cascade Corp. 2.82%
PWR Quanta Services Inc. 2.78%
UFPI Universal Forest Products Inc. 2.73%


Materials
(5.96%) FRK Florida Rock Industries Inc. 3.02%
LPX Louisiana-Pacific Corp. 2.94%

[DSteckler]

Sliced up through the 50% retracement level (of the 7/29 - 10/19 decline). Should ultimately test the 61.8% retracement level, around 830.

[DSteckler]

On average volume. Earnings estimates for the next two quarters are up nicely (42.86% and 61.54% respectively, YOY). The %Oscore is a nice 45%.

Of particular interest is the fact that revenue growth percentage-wise is ramping up. The growth in the last four quarters is -.8%, -2.7%, 4.8% and 6.9%.

[DSteckler]

Out for a 75 cent/share gain. Yesterday's bar closed in the middle half of its range and today's action is bearish. Very low ADX and topped out stochastic (now rolling lower) suggest that PARL will pull back a few points.

[DSteckler]

Take a look at VPHM on a 30-minute chart. It's hugging the 20-bar EMA. Stochastics bottomed and have turned higher so I picked up some shares.

[Websman]

Take a look at VPHM on a 30-minute chart. It's hugging the 20-bar EMA. Stochastics bottomed and have turned higher so I picked up some shares.

I made did quite well on VPHM a while back. Maybe I'll play it again.

[DSteckler]

VPHM formed a bearish harami bar on the daily charts. These are normally interpreted as being bearish in an uptrend. VPHM has been moving sideways for two months, however, so I wouldn't call the action a downtrend.

On the weekly charts VPHM formed a diamond top pattern (a series of higher highs/lower lows followed by lower high/higher lows). This pattern is found during the distribution phase of a stock's life-cycle. The 20-week MA held as support on the right side of the diamond, however, which is bullish.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=38205&u=dave&a=MyCharts&id=690

[ninner]

what do u think of URBN??? and where it is going ...it may test the 200 day again if it can break the 50 but its going higher after that in my opinion...bearish harami formed today....at a key resistance level ....interesting to see what it does tomorrow.

cheers

[DSteckler]

Fell below both its 20-day EMA and 50DMA last week; tried to get back through and failed; traded lower today; and is getting slammed after-hours on their earnings announcement.

Watch that 20-day EMA. It's a canary-in-the-coal-mine when it comes to giving an early warning about changes in trend.

[DSteckler]

Look at how ATAC hugged its rising 50DMA the past two weeks. Broke out today on slightly less than ADV.

[DSteckler]

Sure do, bunky! Take a look at NDE. Textbook C&H breakout (long handle) ona little greater than ADV. Extremely low ADX (10.02) suggests this breakout should have some legs.

[DSteckler]

This stock gives me a chubby. <VBG> Stochastic pop today, too.

[IIC]

Back a few days ago Steck posted some "Sage" advice in response to Sis' re: Investing ...I threw in my 2 cents too on 1/5. However, there is one bit of advice that I forgot to post...And my little mini-disaster today on IDWK made me think of it. My IDWK trade doesn't really apply as it won't cost me that much in the overall scheme of things...But here is what I'd like to offer:

When you take a hit...."NEVER try to get it all back at once"...Pressing is a KILLER...it could even wipe you out. I've made some pretty big mistakes over the years...But I learned quite some time ago..."Don't try to get it back all at once"...Stick to your plan...Or if you find that your plan is flawed...Make changes gradually....Maybe take a break to refresh...The market isn't going anywhere...No Rush!!!...I will play it by ear on IDWK tomorrow...It was a possible accumulation plan anyway...But in the past I have lost quite a bit on single trades...The best thing to do is just get out and trade normally...Even the best laid plans have glitches...Either mental or maybe something happens that you have no control over.

When I got home today and told my wife...She said..."Does that mean I have to return my B-Day present"? (It was yesterday)...I said "Yes...and your Christmas presents too"...We actually did have that exchange...But it was all in fun...Sort of...Anyway, I will open tomorrow the same way I do everyday...No Problem...And besides NGAS the year has been Great so far...Doug(IIC)

[spikefader]

Take a look at VPHM on a 30-minute chart. It's hugging the 20-bar EMA. Stochastics bottomed and have turned higher so I picked up some shares.This thread needs more color! hehe :D

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/2460/vphmjan10a0rt.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Good luck with it DS!

[DSteckler]

ADAM - new stock on the list that was a successful Cooper 1-2-3-4 breakout on 1/4.

ATEA - upside breakout through a descending trendline yesterday.

[DSteckler]

But it's looking somewhat extended here.

[DSteckler]

Continues higher but has doubled its 200DMA and is more than 1.5X the 50DMA. Tightening stops would be in order here.

[DSteckler]

Disappointing because biopharms have the wind behind their back - Group Strength rank = 93, the highest it's been in months.

[DSteckler]

Up, up, and away! CNTF has risen through the 50% retracement level of the Dec. - January decline. Notice how the price hovered around the 38.2% level the past few days. Next resistance is the 61.8% level, around 16.40.

Now here's something interesting: take the all time high back in June and the all time low in October and construct a Fib. series. The 38.2% retracement level was around 12.50 and the December low was 12.59. The 50% retracement level was very close to the 38.2% level of the Dec. - Jan. Fib series. And notice how the 61.8% level was resistance for the same few days CNTF hovered around the 50% level of the Dec. - Jan. Fib. series.

This confluence of Fib. levels is referred to by Joe DiNapoli (author of "Trading with DiNapoli Levels") as Fibonacci Price Clusters. It graphically illustrates the fractal nature of Fibonacci.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=38215&u=dave&a=MyCharts&id=690

[dmk112]

VPHM working also, it filled that gap already and pulled back now. Let's see if it can bust it.

[DSteckler]

BNI has pulled back to the 20-day EMA. This EMA has acted as support each time tested since late October. The daily RSI hasn't been below 50 since July, which is very bullish.

[Lyehopper]

Up, up, and away! CNTF has risen through the 50% retracement level of the Dec. - January decline. Notice how the price hovered around the 38.2% level the past few days. Next resistance is the 61.8% level, around 16.40.

Now here's something interesting: take the all time high back in June and the all time low in October and construct a Fib. series. The 38.2% retracement level was around 12.50 and the December low was 12.59. The 50% retracement level was very close to the 38.2% level of the Dec. - Jan. Fib series. And notice how the 61.8% level was resistance for the same few days CNTF hovered around the 50% level of the Dec. - Jan. Fib. series.

This confluence of Fib. levels is referred to by Joe DiNapoli (author of "Trading with DiNapoli Levels") as Fibonacci Price Clusters. It graphically illustrates the fractal nature of Fibonacci.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=38215&u=dave&a=MyCharts&id=690

Hey DS? Do you ever use Gann fan lines to confirm a retracement? Here's what I do DUDE....


http://img495.imageshack.us/img495/3937/cntf110060gm.png (http://imageshack.us)

[DSteckler]

<< Do you ever use Gann fan lines to confirm a retracement? >>

Yup.

[DSteckler]

Up another 10% today. Getting extremely extended but I'm riding it as long as it keeps moving higher!

[Lyehopper]

<< Do you ever use Gann fan lines to confirm a retracement? >>

Yup.

Do you ever mark up and post cool charts (direct link) for your readers veiwing pleasure?lol

[DSteckler]

Lye, I post charts all the time. Look at my post about CNTF; there's a link in it.

[Lyehopper]

Lye, I post charts all the time. Look at my post about CNTF; there's a link in it.
I see em dude, I just like the chart to pop up in the body of the post that's all, just a personal preference.... I guess Spikefader has spoiled me.... I do follow this thread pretty closely though.... hey, I'm just pickin on ya a bit. keep up the good work!

[DSteckler]

<< I just like the chart to pop up in the body of the post that's all >>

How is that done?

[dmk112]

Dave, put the URL like this this (w/o the quotes)

"Htt://www.blah.jpg"

[Lyehopper]

<< I just like the chart to pop up in the body of the post that's all >>

How is that done?
Well Spike is the expert and he taught me everything I know.lol.... Here's what I do.

First of all I don't use stockcharts.com.... I'm a Vector-Vest dude and I use V-V Prographics and Protrader. So when I bring up a chart I just hit the (Prt Sc) button and paste it to MS paint. Then I trim it open a new window and past the trimmed image. Then I can draw lines, type words paste other stuff on the image or whatever I want to do.... then I post it to ImageShack and copy and paste the correct link for forums and BEHOLD there it is! Now I know that sounds like alot to do.... but It only takes me a minute to do it. ImageShack is a very cool tool to learn how to use. When I first came here I didn't know there was a (Prt Sc) button on my computor.lol

[DSteckler]

<< Dave, put the URL like this this (w/o the quotes)

"Htt://www.blah.jpg" >>

Does that require the image be placed on a server?

[Lyehopper]

<< Dave, put the URL like this this (w/o the quotes)

"Htt://www.blah.jpg" >>

Does that require the image be placed on a server?

Check out http://imageshack.us/ it's very easy to use once you've signed up.

[DSteckler]

I tried a couple of images, Lye. They're still too large to clearly see all the lines and annotations I put on the charts.

[DSteckler]

New high on very heavy volume. Didn't see any news.

[DSteckler]

Large V pattern with the left side formed in July/August, the low on 10/27, and the right side the past 3 weeks. Significant resistance just below 68.

[DSteckler]

Three-day rising right triangle forming on decreasing volume.

[DSteckler]

A thinster I've mentioned before that keeps inching higher. Long-term resistance is the descending trendline with resistance around 8.50.

[DSteckler]

Big move (8.5%) on more than double the ADV.

[DSteckler]

New ATH after a one day pullback yesterday. Even made a gap open higher today.

[DSteckler]

Below its 200DMA for the first time since June, on extremely heavy volume. Consider using any bounces higher as an opportunity to short.

[Lyehopper]

I tried a couple of images, Lye. They're still too large to clearly see all the lines and annotations I put on the charts.
before you post the charts do they fit your screen properly?.... Can you view the entire image without scrolling?

[DSteckler]

When I save them to Imagestation the charts are tiny and difficult to see.

[Lyehopper]

When I save them to Imagestation the charts are tiny and difficult to see.

Let me rephrase that..... When you pull up a chart for YOUR PERSONAL viewing (before you ever attempt posting it) does it fit your screen? or do you have to scroll around to view it? This is important. If it does indeed fit your screen I can tell you how to post it very easily.

[DSteckler]

<< When you pull up a chart for YOUR PERSONAL viewing (before you ever attempt posting it) does it fit your screen? or do you have to scroll around to view it? >>

Scroll around. I can easily resize an image to fit the screen but depending upon the chart and its annotations, that may make it too small to read.

[DSteckler]

SILC - Revenue growth has been busting through the roof; up 100%+ the last three quarters.

CTRN - Has been climbing a rising trend channel since late September.

JOBS - Would like to see this pull back a bit or move sideways for a week. EPS growth accelerating the last three quarters (4 cents - 7 cents - 12 cents).

[DSteckler]

This could be a third-stage breakout so caveat emptor.

[DSteckler]

Broke out of a symmetrical triangle a few days ago and is making a new ATH.

[DSteckler]

RTP gapped open higher and made a new ATH. Same thing with PBR.

JLG continues to climb the rising trend channel. It stochastic popped three times in mid-October; the usual run after a SP is 25% - 50% in 4 - 6 weeks and it's risen 43% since then.

SID, with that big, fat 13% dividend, broke out yesterday through the September resistance zone. It's through all the major Fib. retracement levels between the all-time high and the 2005 low so I'm expecting a retest of the ATH.

[DSteckler]

And forming a high tight flag (HTF) after the big run up at the end of December. Fundies suck so this has been moving on mo-mo alone. I picked up a slug of shares this morning at various prices.

[DSteckler]

WTI (an O&G exploration company) has run up to the resistance line of a multi-month symmetrical triangle. Punk volume today, though.

[DSteckler]

Only two pennies away from the ATH.

[DSteckler]

Whoops! ZIGO made a new ATH today; didn't see that.

[DSteckler]

WLT has made a new ATH and has an extremely low ADX (10.05). Technicals are starting to top out so I'm watching for a downside reversal.

[DSteckler]

Health care products company that had a large gap open higher on 12/23 and proceeded to pull back 61.8% of that rise (right at the 20-day EMA). It's popped back up to the 50% retracement level, around 7.45. The Volume Flow Indicator remained positive for almost all of the pullback, was negative for two days, and went positive again yesterday.

[Websman]

Health care products company that had a large gap open higher on 12/23 and proceeded to pull back 61.8% of that rise (right at the 20-day EMA). It's popped back up to the 50% retracement level, around 7.45. The Volume Flow Indicator remained positive for almost all of the pullback, was negative for two days, and went positive again yesterday.

It does look interesting, but that's a good sized gap. Regardless, I'll keep an eye on it.

[Lyehopper]

It does look interesting, but that's a good sized gap. Regardless, I'll keep an eye on it.
Hey Webs! You off work today? or did you get fired?

[Websman]

Hey Webs! You off work today? or did you get fired?

They couldn't fire me if they wanted to. I'm off until Wed.

I got em wrapped around my finger. lol

[dmk112]

They couldn't fire me if they wanted to. I'm off until Wed.

I got em wrapped around my finger. lol


I thought you quit to trade the YM's!?? haha

[billyjoe]

Lye,
I'm not suggesting that you short your entire portfolio or anything like that but did you ever wonder if Webs is in charge of guarding some of the world's most dangerous terrorists?

billyjoe

[dmk112]

Dave, still holding VPHM? What do you think?

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I'm not suggesting that you short your entire portfolio or anything like that but did you ever wonder if Webs is in charge of guarding some of the world's most dangerous terrorists?

billyjoe
I ain't worried.... Webs can drop a whitetail on a dead run @ 500 yards. He might let one or two sneak out..... but it'll just be for sport....

[DSteckler]

Yep, still holding VPHM. Volume today is extremely light (not even half of ADV) and the weekly technicals (DMI+/- and Volume Flow indicator) are still bullish.

[DSteckler]

Did anyone pick up shares? It's through the long-term resistance line around 8.50.

[DSteckler]

A food stock that has been bouncing along the rising 50DMA for weeks now, finally broke out. Volume is punk, though.

[Websman]

Did anyone pick up shares? It's through the long-term resistance line around 8.50.

I wish I would have...lol

[DSteckler]

SUPX - Revenue growth has jumped dramatically the last three quarters YOY (-12.8%, 12.3%, 30.1%) and EPS estimates for the next two upcoming quarters are staggering (+108.74% and 1,101.85% vs. year ago). ERG is a very strong 278. Relatively small float (10.6 million shares) and 52.5% institutionally held. It's been drifting sideways for a few days and the 50DMA has held as support when tested.

ASPM - Revenue growth as a percent-change YOY has increased every quarter since Oct. 2004. It pulled back 38.2% of the rise between the 9/20 low and the 12/2 high; a pullback to this retracement level (assuming it holds) is considered bullish. ERG = 264. Extremely high PE (132) so if that scares you, stay away.

SILC - This one comes from the Float < 7 million, ERG > 250 screen. EPS has improved every quarter since 6/04. A thinster with a float of only 2 million shares. Like ASPM, it too has pulled back 38.2% since its last significant low. ROE is an impressive 21%.

[DSteckler]

News this morning about a $15 million stock buyback.

[DSteckler]

But action smells toppy this morning, especially since yesterday looked like a distribution day.

[IIC]

But action smells toppy this morning, especially since yesterday looked like a distribution day.

I dt'd IVAC yesterday on that block

[DSteckler]

Isn't acting as well as I thought it would so goodbye, good luck, and good riddance. Out for a small loss.

[DSteckler]

On the 30-minute chart, VPHM is showing a bullish divergence. Higher lows on the stochastic but lower lows on price. Could be good for a point or two if the market improves after lunch.

[DSteckler]

Also has formed a small rising right triangle.

[Lyehopper]

Isn't acting as well as I thought it would so goodbye, good luck, and good riddance. Out for a small loss.
Hey Steckler.... Since you can post what you are buying and selling here.... Why not play one of your favorites in the POTW?.... It's just a fun little game.... Have you visited the thread?

Hey here's an idea.... You could post a looong disclaimer in your signature like CashMaker and CYA.lol.... Then you could play all you want!

[DSteckler]

LOL! Sorry, I don't post stocks in POTW contests.

[spikefader]

booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo :)

[Lyehopper]

LOL! Sorry, I don't post stocks in POTW contests.
well you could post on the POTW thread so we know you watch it. see that little dog run.... sorry Karel....lmbo

[DSteckler]

You can read this thread and know what I'm watching.

[DSteckler]

GNT gapped open higher today but has a tight daily range and as of right now, formed a shooting star bar. If it can move higher today, increasing the range, and close at or near the day's high, today might be the start of a runaway gap scenario. That could send GNT to new highs next week.

[DSteckler]

This could really take off if the market firms up in the last 90 minutes.

[Lyehopper]

booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo :)

Spike.... I would give Steckler a hard time about not playin.... but it's pretty hard to ruffle this dudes feathers.lol.... I tried the day he showed up even attempted the old "what? too skeered?" routine..... He won't bite.... I'll just throw it up from time to time, maybe he'll have a change of heart some day.hehe

BUT IT WOULD BE NICE TO SEE HIM POST THERE SOMETIMES!!!!

btw... you've got a good thread Steckler.... keep that little dog runnin....

[DSteckler]

TICK....<g>

[DSteckler]

The pullback from this week's highs was only to the 23.6% retracement level (using the 12/13 low and the 1/10 high), about 11.15. This is usually seen only with the strongest stocks.

The daily technical indicators have first started rolling lower so I'm sure there will be more downside pressure ahead. But the downside action yesterday and Wednesday was accompanied by less than ADV, which is bullish.

[DSteckler]

On SILC. Volume is better than ADV, an accomplishment in pre-holiday action.

[DSteckler]

Nice push in the last 1/2 hour.

[Websman]

On SILC. Volume is better than ADV, an accomplishment in pre-holiday action.

I tried to Buy SILC, but didn't quite make it...I'll try again on Tuesday.

Oh...I forgot...TICK

[billyjoe]

D,

If you liked FDG's chart you might like EGY.

billyjoe

[DSteckler]

Thanks. But for that funky price spike on 10/20, EGY made a beautiful inverse H&S from mid-September through the end of December. Neckline breakout was on 1/4. Measured target price is made by taking the distance between the neckline and the head (about 1.25) and adding that to the neckline pivot price (around 4.45), for an objective of 5.70.

[DSteckler]

LDIS
SMI
PNR
BBY
SNX
GLB
VZ
SGMS
AVX
BPL
STAR
F
WPI


1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the low of (2).

[DSteckler]

No pullbacks with RS >= 95.

[Websman]

LDIS
SMI
PNR
BBY
SNX
GLB
VZ
SGMS
AVX
BPL
STAR
F
WPI


1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the low of (2).

I'm starting to like your system. Makes good sense. :)

[DSteckler]

One thing you'll discover is that in a choppy market, you can buy in the morning and get stopped (or sell out) just a few hours later. Nature of the beast. It's rare that you don't see a pullback to the 20-day EMA within a few days after entry, which is where you'd exit the trade.

[DSteckler]

<< 5. If filled, place a protective stop below the low of (2). >>

Should have read: 5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

AVK, not AVX. Sorry for the typo!

[Runner]

Dave, nice thrust off the lows in AVK. Momentum appears to have picked back up. If it clears out resistance from back in Nov I think it could rock!
Weekly chart on AVK seems to be range bound. I bet the STO indicator works well with this one..

[Runner]

No pullbacks with RS >= 95.
Dave, what RS setting are you scanning?

[dmk112]

Dave, you should kill the RS>95 rule. IMO

Why don't you see what happens when you do...

[mystiky]

This could really take off if the market firms up in the last 90 minutes.

Nice call on SILC.... what is your "near-term" target on it? $9, or do you think it has a chance for a higher leg up this time around?

I assume you would try to buy it at like 7.80's if it dips on Tuesday at the open?

Also, any comments on TRE?

Looks like it has broken out, but the does $7 now look as the "make or break" on that rally?

Thanks as always...

[DSteckler]

<< Dave, what RS setting are you scanning? >>

RS Rank >= 95.

[DSteckler]

<< Dave, you should kill the RS>95 rule. IMO >>

Then it wouldn't be Cooper's 1-2-3-4 scan, which calls for RS Rank >= 95

<< Why don't you see what happens when you do... >>

I ran a backtest of that years ago. The result is a greater percentage of losses and smaller gains. Cooper knew what he was talking about.

[DSteckler]

<< Nice call on SILC.... what is your "near-term" target on it? $9, or do you think it has a chance for a higher leg up this time around? >>

It should test the range of the old high, say around 8.95 - 9.25. Market action will play a role in that, of course. If the market behaves I wouldn't be surprised to see new highs. A close above 9.75 should set up an eventual run to 11.70, the 1.382 Fib. extension of the October - December advance.

<< I assume you would try to buy it at like 7.80's if it dips on Tuesday at the open? >>

A pullback to 7.60 would work (that's the 20-day EMA) but if it starts trading below