Steckler's Star Studded Stock Picks

[DSteckler]

Couldn't get back through the 20-day EMA and trading lower today.

[DSteckler]

A symmetrical triangle that can't get back above its 50DMA and retraced just under 38.2% of the decline since 5/11. Very low ADX (under 15) and stochastics rolling over from above 80 suggests the next move is lower. The trigger could be when it starts trading below the 20-day EMA (64.35).

[DSteckler]

Has formed a continuation H&S pattern with the neckline around 52.70.

[DSteckler]

Approaching double top resistance on a little more than 1/2 the ADV. It's back above the 50DMA, though.

[DSteckler]

Back through the 20-day EMA on ADV. Came out of a symmetrical triangle.

[DSteckler]

Back up through the 200DMA but on less than ADV. Nearing the resistance line of a descending trend channel.

[DSteckler]

EP - symmetrical triangle. Low ADX and stochastics rising.

IIIN - bearish divergence between price and stochastic.

[DSteckler]

AGO
BJCT
RELL


1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

ANSV
AUXL


1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's high must be higher than yesterday's high.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks below today's low good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's low good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades above its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop above the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

EP - symmetrical triangle.

[IIC]

Get back to the tables Dave ;)

[DSteckler]

Get back to the tables Dave ;)

LOL! I was down there a few hours ago...came up to check e-mail and place my orders for the open. Heading back down in a few minutes.

[DSteckler]

Went to the buffet for breakfast. Now I'm not saying I ate a lot but as I was leaving, I kept looking for the vomitorium....<g>

[skiracer]

Went to the buffet for breakfast. Now I'm not saying I ate a lot but as I was leaving, I kept looking for the vomitorium....<g>

Well now that's what we all wanted to hear. So did you end up purging. You know what the best thing after a good purge is don't you? What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.
I can't imagine being in Vegas and taking the time out to come post here. It's love. So what do you play an are you up or down right now? How are the hard bodies. I'm here at the Jersey shore, it's July 3rd, the sun is blazing, it's 94 degrees, the water temperature is around 70, and the young hard bodies are everywhere an 95 % of them have a tattoe or two. They had the AVP Seaside Heights Volley Tour here this weekend and the place is swamped. It's like being in a candy factory and not being able to touch or eat any of the chocolates.

[DSteckler]

I play Blackjack, Ski. Not as many hard bodies as I'd like to see; more fat bodies in tube tops! {Ewww}

Enjoy the 4th, folks. Talk atcha Wednesday.

[IIC]

Went to the buffet for breakfast. Now I'm not saying I ate a lot but as I was leaving, I kept looking for the vomitorium....<g>

What did you have Dave?

BTW...Where are you having dinner tonight?

BTW Again...You might try that Intestinal Cleanser I mentioned on Cos's thread when you get home...Doug(IIC)

[DSteckler]

Had a little of a lot of things. Tonight we're having dinner in Fusia, the Asian restaurant. Tomorrow we'll have dinner in the Steakhouse.

[IIC]

Had a little of a lot of things. Tonight we're having dinner in Fusia, the Asian restaurant. Tomorrow we'll have dinner in the Steakhouse.

Yummy...those sound great...Can you send me a Douggie Bag if there's any leftovers?...TIA...Douggie

PS...I'm really good w/ chopstix(I'm serious...we all have our talents)

[DSteckler]

YummyI'm really good w/ chopstix(I'm serious...we all have our talents)

Sure...I haven't had a hand-knitted sweater in years....<VBG>

[IIC]

Sure...I haven't had a hand-knitted sweater in years....<VBG>


Dave...I'm reporting you to your Casino Hostess...You are supposed to be losing at the tables...Not coming here to talk to the likes of me....;)

[DSteckler]

I played about 6 hours of blackjack yesterday. That's enough for one day!

[DSteckler]

Out of Consumer Cyclicals and into Energy. This is the model that selects from among six domestic ETFs, selecting the ETF with the highest Alpha/SD.

[Rob]

Dave, not sure to which model you're referring, but here are links to info. pages on five different ETFs that focus on energy.

PXE (http://www.amex.com/etf/EtPiPrintMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=PXE&MonthVal=12)
XLE (http://www.amex.com/etf/EtPiPrintMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=XLE&MonthVal=12)
VDE (http://www.amex.com/etf/EtPiPrintMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=VDE&MonthVal=12)
IYE (http://www.amex.com/etf/EtPiPrintMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=IYE&MonthVal=12)
IXC (http://www.amex.com/etf/EtPiPrintMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=IXC&MonthVal=12)

They all run pretty much in sync.

[skiracer]

Dave, not sure to which model you're referring, but here are links to info. pages on five different ETFs that focus on energy.

PXE (http://www.amex.com/etf/EtPiPrintMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=PXE&MonthVal=12)
XLE (http://www.amex.com/etf/EtPiPrintMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=XLE&MonthVal=12)
VDE (http://www.amex.com/etf/EtPiPrintMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=VDE&MonthVal=12)
IYE (http://www.amex.com/etf/EtPiPrintMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=IYE&MonthVal=12)
IXC (http://www.amex.com/etf/EtPiPrintMain.jsp?Product_Symbol=IXC&MonthVal=12)

They all run pretty much in sync.

Rob,
I think that you left out an important on from that set. OIH. Actually OIH and XLE are the most followed and traded IMO

[skiracer]

Out of Consumer Cyclicals and into Energy. This is the model that selects from among six domestic ETFs, selecting the ETF with the highest Alpha/SD.

Dave,
Have you been checking out the Morpheus Trading Groups website for Deron's ETF report?

[DSteckler]

Dave,
Have you been checking out the Morpheus Trading Groups website for Deron's ETF report?

Nope, never heard of it. It's one of a number of models I developed a few years ago. Annual average return since 1/1/03 through yesterday is 25.17% vs. 10.3% for the SP500. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[DSteckler]

Continuation H&S on the LMS daily chart. Neckline is around 28.85. What would be healthy here is a pullback to the 20-day EMA followd by a push higher on healthy volume.

[Lyehopper]

Continuation H&S on the LMS daily chart. Neckline is around 28.85. What would be healthy here is a pullback to the 20-day EMA followd by a push higher on healthy volume.
jejejejejejejejejejejejejejejejejejejeejejejeeeeee eeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!

[DSteckler]

Double top.

[DSteckler]

Rising trend channel with resistance at the 20-day EMA.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=40226&u=dave&a=MyCharts&id=690

[DSteckler]

Nice move on this recent IPO.

[DSteckler]

The market actually traded in the same direction for more than one day? I think technicians called it a "trend." <VBG>

[DSteckler]

Today's action looks like it's confirming the double top in the XOI.

[DSteckler]

IYF threatening to break up above its 50DMA. At its June low it retraced 50% of the rise from the October low to the May high.

[DSteckler]

C&H formation.

[DSteckler]

ACGY
ARS
ABR
BWINB
BDCO
BOSC
CCJ
CBR
CBU
GGY
SID
COP
DNR
DSGX
DVSA
DPL
DTSI
EAS
XOM
GDI
GTW
GGG
GWW
HARB
HELX
HTBK
HYDL
IBIS
ITMN
INTV
ISRG
KRO
LCRY
MCBC
MDCO
VIVO
MON
NPBC
NEM
NXY
NOVN
PEET
PLPC
PWR
SM
SU
SYY
TPO
TZOO
VISG
WHQ

Lots of oil companies in this list.


1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

VECO - symmetrical triangle but it couldn't punch through the 50DMA. OTOH, it didn't collapse on Friday, either.

WMG - formed a cup, now forming a hadle.

[DSteckler]

Choppy chart but it formed a symmetrical triangle the past week. Daily technicials improving, as are the weeklies. Estimates for the next two quarters are up 100% and 200% respectively, YOY.

[DSteckler]

XOI is rolling over. Very short-term support is around 1149. First significant support level is around 1117, the 38.2% retracement level (using the 6/13 low and the 7/7 high), which is also just below the 20-day EMA.

[Runner]

Dave, Gold and copper groups look pretty good...

[DSteckler]

Decreasing volume in the recent sideways consolidation.

[DSteckler]

ABI - misses being a Cooper setup by 1 RS point (RS = 94; Cooper requires 95 or higher). Earnings estimates for the next two quarters are nothing to get excited about, however - up only 9.68% and 12.5% respectively, YOY.

CAL - C&H formation.

[Jim Smith]

Dave, does the daily chart look like a diamond pattern here over the last several days? Which way do you think it will be resolved? Thanks.

[DSteckler]

Dave, does the daily chart look like a diamond pattern here over the last several days? Which way do you think it will be resolved? Thanks.

Not really, Smitty. Diamond patterns are usually tops and CAMH is nowhere near a top. The action the past few weeks is a rectangular base. If there's a weekly close above 2.55 then CAMH should test 2.78 - 2.80.

[DSteckler]

NUVO - very low ADX reflecting the tight daily range.

[New-born baby]

NUVO - very low ADX reflecting the tight daily range.

Nice call. That is a most beautiful bull flag.

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/2928/chart1sk5.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[RL]

Dave what do you think Is going on with GPS?

[DSteckler]

Dave what do you think Is going on with GPS?

Looks to be under distribution.

[Lyehopper]

WMG - formed a cup, now forming a hadle.
I don't see a cup/handle in WMG Dave.... but I'm not sure exactly what a "hadle" is. :p .... maybe it's a "pro thang".....je....je....je

Post us a chart so we can see what you're talking about dude.

Actually I see a great short play.

http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/4108/wmgmn7.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

I don't see a cup/handle in WMG Dave....
Just noticed the date on your post was 7/10/06 Dave.... Sorry! It was showing a cup/handle back then.:)

[DSteckler]

ABI - continues to coil.

GRMN - a long-time board favorite with an extremely low ADX. Trading lower in pre-market and the Volume Flow Indicator turned bearish (showing distribution) yesterday.

SHOO - it's da shoes.... Trading up 11% pre-market.

[DSteckler]

Looks like a downside breakout on ABI after earnings release.

[DSteckler]

Talk about a reversal! ABI bounced off the 20-day EMA and is now up for the day.

[DSteckler]

GRMN - a long-time board favorite with an extremely low ADX. Trading lower in pre-market and the Volume Flow Indicator turned bearish (showing distribution) yesterday.

Down almost 6%.

[DSteckler]

AGI - high tight flag.

CVO - has been climbing steadily since 4/05.

[DSteckler]

Look at the monthly chart and you'll see it's pulled back 62% of the high-low rise since the IPO.

[Lyehopper]

Look at the monthly chart (EBAY) and you'll see it's pulled back 62% of the high-low rise since the IPO.
Looks like somebody's buying it off the bottom today.

[DSteckler]

Looks like somebody's buying it off the bottom today.

Based on the low volume today I'm guessing that's some short covering.

[DSteckler]

ACU
CKSW
KSP
SNN
SYMC
VLI


1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[IIC]

ACU
CKSW
KSP
SNN
SYMC
VLI


1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.


Dave...is their any record of how these bow tie stocks pan out overall?...thx...Doug

[DSteckler]

Dave...is their any record of how these bow tie stocks pan out overall?...thx...Doug

Doug, those are just the entry criteria. How well they work out (assuming the trade is entered into) depends upon your exit and money management criteria.

[DSteckler]

Off to San Diego early in the a.m. Sunday. Cya on line!

[IIC]

Doug, those are just the entry criteria. How well they work out (assuming the trade is entered into) depends upon your exit and money management criteria.

I realize that Dave...But???

Have a good time in San Diego...Come up 125 miles and I'll take you out to dinner...Doug

[DSteckler]

I realize that Dave...But???

But what?

I sell half the position when my profit = risk. I then place a break-even stop on the remaining shares. Once profit = 1.5X risk I switch that to a trailing stop.

Using this exit/money methodology, Average W/L ratio is about 2.5:1, but the percentage of winning trades is only about 42%.

[Runner]

Dave, your exit plan is very similar to the one I use. Do you use a fixed percent of risk for you positions?

[IIC]

But what?

I sell half the position when my profit = risk. I then place a break-even stop on the remaining shares. Once profit = 1.5X risk I switch that to a trailing stop.

Using this exit/money methodology, Average W/L ratio is about 2.5:1, but the percentage of winning trades is only about 42%.


OK...that's basically what I was asking...thx...although when does "profit=risk"?

[Runner]

IIC, I think Dave is referring to this example. Say you set up a trade and your initial risk is 4.00. This means if the stock hits his initial risk of 4.00 on the upside he will sell ½ his position. His R/1 risk is 4.00. If it goes against him he will bail out at the R1 level or 4.00 under his entry. Once it goes past his R1 to the upside and hits 1.5 or 5.50 he puts in a trail order.

[Runner]

deleted this thread........IIC, you can even do this with your DT’s. Except your expectancy may be smaller. If your only risking .50 you could look to trail after your up .50 and attempt to get a higher R multiple. I view a very good target is R3 this simply means your now 1.50 up on your position. Once this happens you can set your trail stop to your preference. Simple method but effective… Now here is where you might have an advantage. You most likely will have more opportunities as your trading off intraday charts. If your hit rate is good and if you hit R3 consistently I bet you would be one very happy trader. Easier said than done though.

Also a system that only has a 42% hit rate can make more money then one with a 70% hit rate if you can believe this….Sure someone can be right very often but pull out with a very little profit. Sure he has a 70% hit rate but is he profitable?

[IIC]

IIC, you can even do this with your DT’s. Except your expectancy may be smaller. If your only risking .50 you could look to trail after your up .50 and attempt to get a higher R multiple. I view a very good target is R3 this simply means your now 1.50 up on your position. Once this happens you can set your trail stop to your preference. Simple method but effective… Now here is where you might have an advantage. You most likely will have more opportunities as your trading off intraday charts. If your hit rate is good and if you hit R3 consistently I bet you would be one very happy trader. Easier said than done though.

Also a system that only has a 42% hit rate can make more money then one with a 70% hit rate if you can believe this….Sure someone can be right very often but pull out with a very little profit. Sure he has a 70% hit rate but is he profitable?


I agree that you can be more profitable with a lower hit rate...The way I dt I could've been profitable in the 40% range...the last 2 years on dt's I was right a little over 62% of the time...this year it is a little higher...But this year I'm perfectly satisfied to take 1-3%...I have not really had any dt runners this year...but I have not had any big losers either.

I am seriously considering bailing on all longer term trades and only day/swing trading...Been 3 yrs on swings and 2 years on dt's...it is about time I put more money into those trades I think.

[Runner]

IIC, I think one of the biggest mistakes we traders make is misunderstanding Risk and or money management. Trading is not a get rich quick thing and many who hit it big often go bust. I think we all are looking for consistency over time. If you don’t mind me asking what is your risk tolerance per trade based off you total account value? You don’t need to tell me the dollar amount, as this is not my business. I’ve tried to raise this point in the past with little success. I only put 1-2% total account up on any one trade for swings. Now how one sets this up often yields very different results. The point being the number of shares one buys is very important. I can have a stop at a 15% loss and still be only risking 2% of my total account with fewer shares. Not sure many understand this and I think this will be the last time I mention it here.

[IIC]

IIC, I think one of the biggest mistakes we traders make is misunderstanding Risk and or money management. Trading is not a get rich quick thing and many who hit it big often go bust. I think we all are looking for consistency over time. If you don’t mind me asking what is your risk tolerance per trade based off you total account value? You don’t need to tell me the dollar amount, as this is not my business. I’ve tried to raise this point in the past with little success. I only put 1-2% total account up on any one trade for swings. Now how one sets this up often yields very different results. The point being the number of shares one buys is very important. I can have a stop at a 15% loss and still be only risking 2% of my total account with fewer shares. Not sure many understand this and I think this will be the last time I mention it here.


I understand it...But I don't really have a set amount...that might be a mistake...But I like different setups to different degrees...Like yesterday...I was a bit cocky after going 9 in a row...So I got cute trying to call a bottom on RACK...but I went in light and lost a few cents...A few Friday's ago(7/14) I really liked FTO and I backed up the truck...Perhaps that's why I trimmed so fast on it...But it worked out well...If I had invested less I'm fairly certain I would've made more per share...I'm not really a good person to discuss money management with because my $$$ amounts vary widely based on my gut feelings...Doug(IIC)

[Runner]

IIC, here is something you can experiment with. You have an awesome list in the IIC 100. take a port of 100K and say you’ll risk 2% of this 100K or 2,000. This will be the total amount you will risk. Now take your 2000. Risk and divide it by your top 10 that you think will yield you the best results. Now for each of these positions your risk is 200. This means you will get out if and when a position drops 200.00 from your entry. If all your positions get stopped your still with in your 2000. tolerance. Set these boys up in a test port and track them. When you get a profit of 300.00 set a trail and let them run. You will get stopped out and when this happens you can reinvest as necessary. Play with it and see what happens. Nothing lost, as this is simply a test. I think this can be very educational…

[DSteckler]

Ex-SEC Chair: Earnings Are Meaningless

All Associated Press News

NEW YORK (AP) - Imperfections in the accounting system make quarterly earnings numbers meaningless, former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman William Donaldson said Tuesday.

Speaking at an event sponsored by the CFA Centre for Financial Market Integrity and the Business Roundtable Institute for Corporate Ethics, Donaldson said, "The real issue is to stop managing a company for the quarterly results."

Thanks to assumptions allowed under accounting standards, quarterly earnings numbers "are so vague," Donaldson said.

[DSteckler]

Very low ADX (13.86) and breaking out to the upside. Light volume, however, so be careful out there.

[DSteckler]

EZPW - symmetrical triangle.

GM - rolling over after rising on decreasing volume the past few days.

[DSteckler]

EME - setting up in a Cooper 1-2-3-4 pullback.

JTX - bottoming out just above the 20-day EMA.

[DSteckler]

CTCI - symmetrical triangle and holding the 20-day EMA.

IWA - possible short. Gapped open lower yesterday and fell hard but bounced off the 50DMA.

[DSteckler]

AIXG
ATRS
AFG
AMSC
AMPX
HRT
BTRX
CCMP
CZN
CRED
GEHL
HSC
PTIE
PEC
RENT
RSYS
TLM
TOC
TAC
VTAL



1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

With BP taking 8% of US production off-line, I'm expecting Sept. crude (CLU06) to break out to the upside. It has a very low ADX (12.84) and had a positive DMI crossover last week.

[DSteckler]

AXE overbought and looks ripe to pull back a couple of points.

[DSteckler]

From Bloomberg:

"Futures prices show traders calculate about a 79 percent chance of a Fed pause today. The yield on the August fed fund futures contract is 5.29 percent, compared with 5.33 percent five days ago, when prices showed a 41 percent chance of a pause."

[DSteckler]

FXI gapped open higher and is trading at a 30-day high. Very low ADX (12.44) and rising stochastic/RSI suggest the move will continue.

[DSteckler]

APN (also, a Cooper 1-2-3-4 candidate)
NOOF
AGII
AQNT
FSN
TPC


1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/13/business/yourmoney/13stra.html?ex=1156046400&en=abe3a45bedce989e&ei=5070

[peanuts]

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/13/business/yourmoney/13stra.html?ex=1156046400&en=abe3a45bedce989e&ei=5070

I have lots of learning to do. I have only begun to scratch the surface of even understanding options. I know the basics, but I have not been able to form a strategy. I find a lot of value in seeing what people think of a stock's future by looking at the option chain participation. I can't make any good stock picks from it, yet, but I'm trying to learn. If you know of anything I need to be reading to be able to form a stock picking strategy based on option chain participation, please put up some more links.

Do you know of anyone that has a subscription to SBOE database? If you did what this paper says, then at a bare minimum, you only need $6000 just to break even on your purchase of the subscription. But, If you are really good, those "double digit returns" may be much higher than just 10%, and this could be an easy way to invest. I am interested.

[DSteckler]

I have lots of learning to do.

Peanuts, you've posted that you're averaging a 240% annual return (20%/month). Why do you care about option strategies?

[peanuts]

Peanuts, you've posted that you're averaging a 240% annual return (20%/month). Why do you care about option strategies?

HA! I wish it was like that overall. No, see, I breakdown my entire financial portfolio into 3 groups: Long Term, Mid Term, and Short Term. The allocation of funds is approx 50%, 30%, 20%. Obviously, I have certain types of investments in each group- everything from an IRA that has stocks and one that has mutual funds, a small money market fund, a few bonds, lots of stocks, and ETF's, to actual gold and coins and to top it all off- my baseball card collection. However, I do not trade options or in FOREX. I do not get high double digit returns overall in my Mid Term group, so adding an option account to my MT and ST groups could help to increase my overall gain if I can follow this strategy.

My ST portfolio takes a lot of risk. I'm getting better at picking these stocks, and I have recorded all my trades here, so there should be no doubt. However, I don't get to see those 240% annual gains even in this group, because I do portfolio rebalancing along the way. I try to maintain my ST group to only be 20% of my total portfolio. I also vary the amount invested in each position. I do not have too much money in the low priced stocks.

[DSteckler]

GI - very low ADX, indicating a very tight daily range. Volume Flow Indicator turned bullish yesterday.

NEU - C&H formation. Flat handle so far, which is less than ideal.

SHOO - bounced off the 20-day EMA a few days ago.

[Runner]

Dave, I like the set up on NEU.

[DSteckler]

MDRX - nice consolidation after the huge up day two weeks ago.

OKE - looking toppy; could pull back to the 50DMA.

[DSteckler]

ATRS

Cooper candidates are stocks that have a high RS rank (95 or greater) and make a three-day pullback, either three consecutive lower lows or a combination of lower lows and inside days. Enter long on Day 4, 1 - 2 ticks above the Day-3 high. Use the exit strategy of your choice.

The trade can be worked one additional day (lower low or inside day on Day 4, enter long on Day 5 one - two ticks above the Day-4 high). If it doesn't pop on Day 5, abandon the trade.

[DSteckler]

FNSR
FRD
CMO
IIF
VLTR
FISV
EFD
MTK
AFCE
QQQQ
STM
CPKI
UVV
CLN
CREAF
EXPE



1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

TRMA - worth taking a look at.

[DSteckler]

No, not Emeril.

BAMM looks to be setting up to test breaking back above its 50DMA.

[DSteckler]

Failed Hedge Fund
Haunts Celebrities

Investors Sue Those Who Cashed Out Early
To Return More Than $100 Million
By IANTHE JEANNE DUGAN
August 22, 2006; Page C1

In the annals of hedge-fund collapses, Sylvester Stallone is among lucky investors who walked away unscathed -- or so it seemed.

In 1997, the actor invested $2.5 million in a private investment partnership called Lipper Convertibles. Four years later, with his statements showing the investment had swelled to about $3.8 million, he cashed out. Fellow actor John Cusack also walked away with big gains, as did former New York City Mayor Ed Koch and a trust fund for the children of investor Henry Kravis.

Now, they are all being sued to give money back.

What none realized, according to their lawyers, was that Lipper never made all that money. A portfolio manager had inflated profits by at least 40%, Lipper discovered in 2002. "We want all the money to be put back in the pool, so we can divvy it up equitably among all the partners," says Thomas Dubbs, an attorney representing the federal trustee overseeing Lipper. (The hedge fund is unrelated to Lipper Inc., the mutual-fund data firm, which is part of Reuters Group PLC.)

In lawsuits filed in recent months in New York state court in Manhattan, the trustee, Richard Williamson, charges the investors who got out with "unjust enrichment." He wants them to return more than $100 million, including $1.3 million plus interest from Mr. Stallone alone.

Messrs. Stallone and Cusack, in court documents, say they were unaware of the fraud and didn't harm fellow investors. In an interview, Mr. Koch, who now works as an attorney at a private firm, says he intends to keep his profits, which amount to about $1 million, including interest. "It's just wrong," he says.

The battle highlights a trend emerging from the boom in hedge funds, which now control assets of more than $1 trillion for wealthy investors and institutions. In the wake of some failures, those investors who lost money are chasing those who cashed out. However, there is little precedent in terms of applying this legal argument to failed hedge funds. As a result, it remains to be seen whether the new cases have any success.

A trustee liquidating Bayou Management LLC, a failed Connecticut hedge fund, is attempting to reclaim more than $100 million from investors, including a fund called Sterling Stamos in which the owner of the New York Mets baseball team, Fred Wilpon, has a stake. In a separate matter, a Long Island family is suing several fellow investors in a bogus hedge fund called Sterling Watters. Among defendants: a former official of the Securities and Exchange Commission. (See related article.)

Those cases, like the Lipper case, are pending in state Supreme Court in Manhattan. Individuals who profited "should be sharing the pain," says Jeff Marwil, the federal trustee in charge of liquidating Bayou. "Our goal is to equalize in a fair and equitable fashion."

Bayou collapsed last summer after two founders revealed they had inflated profits figures and did not have the $450 million investors believed they had in the fund. The founders pleaded guilty to fraud and await sentencing. In February, Bayou filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. bankruptcy code.

Mr. Marwil has filed several lawsuits in recent months to retrieve money from investors.

Among them is UT Medical Group, a private-practice arm of University of Tennessee Health Science Center, which declined to comment on the lawsuit. Mr. Marwil is still tallying how much money was removed; others familiar with the matter estimate that as much as $250 million could be reclaimed. He says he intends to file several more lawsuits.

Unlike the Lipper cases, Mr. Marwil wants Bayou investors to return more than their profits: He also wants them to give back the money they originally put into the fund. So far, he is concentrating on investors who cashed out less than two years before he brought suit. That is the statute of limitations under bankruptcy law, though under state laws he could ultimately extend further back.

"Every payment made by the hedge fund needs to come back," he says. "We will then determine a payment scheme based on the amount of time the investor was in the fund and the losses in the fund."

Among investors who got out before the meltdown was Sterling Stamos. In early 2005, it withdrew tens of millions of dollars from Bayou, according to people close to the matter. The firm hasn't been sued, but its account has been reviewed by Mr. Marwil. An attorney for Sterling Stamos declined to comment.

The suit alleges that the money was unfairly paid out as part of the scheme by the managers to defraud investors. It is akin to Ponzi schemes, in which newcomers' money is paid to people who want to cash out, in order to create the false impression that the business is financially successful.

Similar issues surrounded Bennett Funding Group, which sought protection under bankruptcy laws in the mid-1990s, after federal securities regulators accused company officials of a scheme to cheat investors. A trustee overseeing the case, former SEC chairman Richard Breeden, liquidated Bennett, then sued thousands of investors who had cashed out. The effort recouped only a fraction of the money.

Charles Gradante, a partner in Hennessee Group, a hedge-fund consultant, is among those lauding the wave of new suits. Those who invested in Bayou on the advice of Hennessee collectively lost an estimated $20 million, he says. Ross Intelisano, a lawyer representing about 20 investors who also collectively claim to have lost $20 million in Bayou, said, "Our clients are very supportive."

The legal grounds are similar in a case filed by a Long Island family that claims to have lost about $7 million in a fund called Sterling Watters. It was launched in 1995 by a former Merrill Lynch broker named Angelo Haligiannis. He reported to investors that he was making annualized returns of 35% to 40%.

Among investors who profited was Peter Derby, who last year left the SEC where he was managing director for operations under former chairman William Donaldson. Mr. Derby had invested $1 million in 2002 and got that back, along with $185,000 in profits, when he redeemed a year later, according to records reviewed by people close to the matter.

Another investor, Jerry Drenis, contends that Mr. Derby and others were essentially paid with money stolen from others, including Mr. Drenis and his family. Mr. Drenis and his relatives collectively lost more than $7 million, he says. They are suing Mr. Derby and two dozen other investors.

"Angelo Haligiannis gave away our money to pay off other investors," says Mr. Drenis, the owner of a heating-oil business. "It's not their money to keep."

Sterling Watters, the Justice Department says, raised more than $25 million by misrepresenting its performance figures through a classic Ponzi scheme. Mr. Haligiannis vanished before his sentencing earlier this year.

Mr. Derby has filed a motion to dismiss the suit. "Even if the allegations are true -- which, of course we'd dispute if the ruling went against us -- there is no viable cause of action in which plaintiffs can recover" money, says Mr. Derby's attorney, Gary Kushner. Among other things, he says, limited partners in a corporation can't sue each other under state law.

Another defendant, Joseph Biasucci, a 68-year-old retired executive of the Teamsters union, says that he can't give back his profits. "I don't have it," he says. "I paid capital-gains taxes, and I spent the rest."

Mr. Biasucci says he found out about Sterling Watters through a lawyer in the mid-1990s and invested $50,000. He says that it ostensibly grew to about $130,000 over 10 years. He dipped in now and then, he says, to pay bills and taxes, coming out a bit ahead. Still, the paper loss was devastating, he says. "This was my retirement money."

In the Lipper case, the fund's namesake, Ken Lipper, made many connections working as a former deputy under Mayor Koch, and as the author of the novel "Wall Street."

Among numerous prominent investors was Mr. Kravis's children's trust, which court documents show made a $2.6 million investment in 1995. In 2001, the trust was paid a profit of $2.8 million.

It wasn't until two years later that Lipper sent the letter to investors saying that it had discovered that the profits had been inflated by more than $300 million. A portfolio manager, Edward Strafaci, pleaded guilty in 2004 to a federal charge of securities fraud and was sentenced to six years in prison.

Given the revised figures, the lawsuit filed last year by Mr. Williamson says, the Kravis trust should have received only $712,346. Thus, it "erroneously" received a $2.17 million windfall that "greatly exceeded the value" of its interests. The Kravis trust has filed a motion to dismiss that suit.

Mr. Cusack's Lipper investment, which totaled $300,000, was made in the mid-1990s, court documents show. In 2000, he was given $537,705, or an alleged overpayment of $166,123 plus $67,025 interest.

In an answer filed last month, a lawyer for Mr. Cusack says that "the damages alleged in the complaint were not caused by the alleged 'excess' payments to Cusack."

[jiesen]

sue the hedge funds? Brilliant! Just think of all the billable hours there... why settle for some, when you can have it all?

screw this investing BS, I'm going to get a law degree.

[DSteckler]

Bouncing higher off the 20-day EMA.

[peanuts]

Bouncing higher off the 20-day EMA.

Are you interested in this, or China stocks?

[DSteckler]

I like stocks that are in rising trend channel formations.

[DSteckler]

CVA looks to have topped out.

[DSteckler]

The Oct. 5 calls will give you better than 10% if not called away.

[DSteckler]

PFWD
WOLF
CRB (trades thinly)
BDAY
ENMD
RHD
LPSN
ALEX
SSCC



1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

BEBE
DLR


Cooper candidates are stocks that have a high RS rank (95 or greater) and make a three-day pullback, either three consecutive lower lows or a combination of lower lows and inside days. Enter long on Day 4, 1 - 2 ticks above the Day-3 high. Use the exit strategy of your choice.

The trade can be worked one additional day (lower low or inside day on Day 4, enter long on Day 5 one - two ticks above the Day-4 high). If it doesn't pop on Day 5, abandon the trade.

[peanuts]

BEBE
DLR


Cooper candidates are stocks that have a high RS rank (95 or greater) and make a three-day pullback, either three consecutive lower lows or a combination of lower lows and inside days. Enter long on Day 4, 1 - 2 ticks above the Day-3 high. Use the exit strategy of your choice.

The trade can be worked one additional day (lower low or inside day on Day 4, enter long on Day 5 one - two ticks above the Day-4 high). If it doesn't pop on Day 5, abandon the trade.

There sure seems to be a lot of interest in BEBE. I don't know if I'll follow the above strategy, but I may stalk this to play. Once weakness is shown, I'd get out as fast as possible. It has dropped really fast in the past

[New-born baby]

There sure seems to be a lot of interest in BEBE. I don't know if I'll follow the above strategy, but I may stalk this to play. Once weakness is shown, I'd get out as fast as possible. It has dropped really fast in the past

Late to the party already. Very bullish and impulsive breakout--but those gaps like to be filled, and need to be filled first. BEBE was once a $30 stock that fell all the way down to $12.50. Yes Peanuts: she knows how to pullback. :D Having said that, Friday's candle looks like BEBE is headed higher Monday. And the SEPT $22.50 call is a mere $0.65, so one could play it that way and risk a lot less. I won't be jumping in right now. Chart has too many gaps for me.

[DSteckler]

At a substantial premium could forecast other mergers and buyout.

[DSteckler]

ALJ - pulled back to the 20-day EMA, from where it's been bouncing higher.

[DSteckler]

Very extended here (short-term) and a bearish candlestick so far today. Completing the fifth wave up (could be a truncated fifth) and it looks ripe for a pullback to the 10.25 range.

[DSteckler]

Weekly chart shows an ascending triangle. Volume is good.

[DSteckler]

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog8-30-06/

[DSteckler]

http://etf.seekingalpha.com/article/16260

[DSteckler]

CVO - has been holding support quite nicely every time it pulls back to its 20-day EMA.

[DSteckler]

For a day or swing trade.

[DSteckler]

On very heavy volume. Highest high since 2000. If/when it gets above 12, the IBD crowd is going to be all over this one.

[DSteckler]

On Briefing.com:

With GIGM making a new 5-year high today, we thought we'd update investors on the name. GIGM is a Taiwan-based provider of online entertainment and broadband services. It develops software for online gaming, operates a casual game portal, and provides broadband Internet access in Taiwan. All of the co's revenues are generated outside the US... Since our last GIGM update on Apr 28, the co has reported two quarters of solid growth, with EPS up 633% & 200% YoY and revs up 92% & 82% in Q2 & Q1, respectively. Its most recent earnings (Q2) were reported on Aug 8, and the co attributed the solid results to continued growth in poker software products and margin expansion in all business units. Revenues in the poker and traditional gaming software business (55% of total revs) rose 124% YoY and 32% sequentially. The co said it remains excited about the prospects for real-money MahJong and other Asian cash-wager software which will start to roll-out this quarter... In early May GIGM announced an expansion of its China market reach through a strategic investment in online casual game company T2CN Holding, and on May 16 the co announced the sale of its legacy A.D.S.L. Internet service provider business as part of its ongoing restructuring to focus on the high-margin, high-growth online entertainment sector. While the co has said Q3 is traditionally a period of decreased Internet activity, mgmt expects moderate rev growth in their poker software product will largely offset the impact of seasonality on Q3 revenues for the entertainment software business and continue to support good growth going forward... The stock has been chopping around for the past four months in a range of $6.18-$10.78 and today broke above its range high to set a new 5-year high. Although the stock looks extended today, GIGM is a name to watch for continued momentum, especially if it closes above the $10.78 level. Mkt cap: $539 mln, float: 34.7 mln, avg daily volume: 1.1 mln shares. (PROFX)

[DSteckler]

MTW - tight daily range the past few days.

TPX - bearosh divergence between price and indicators on the daily chart.

WRLD - tight daily range the past few days. Disclosure - I own this one.

[DSteckler]

Global: Oil Update: Easing Has Started, but Mind Short-Term Risks
Eric Chaney (London) and Richard Berner (New York)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060908-fri.html

The decline of crude oil and refined products has accelerated over the past few days: One month ago, Brent for delivery in September was priced at $77.6/bl. As we write this note, Brent for immediate delivery is priced $14 lower. Oil markets are so volatile that this could be just another dip in what is fundamentally a bull market, as has happened systematically since early 2004. We take a different view. We think that the current correction, although probably calling for some reversion in the winter season, is the beginning of a structural change in the market that should bring crude quotes down to around $50 in the next two-to-three years, if not significantly lower.

Earlier this year, as the global economy was accelerating, the lack of spare capacity in the global supply chain of oil products convinced us that markets would ask for a heftier risk premium and that prices were more likely to rise than to decline. In our oil price update of April 21, we pencilled in a peak at $80/bl in August-September, during the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico. On August 8, the price of dated Brent reached $79/bl, after BP shut down the Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska. Since then, neither spot nor future markets has revisited the $80 region. Not that geopolitical risks have suddenly vanished: Not only has Iran continued and is still continuing to enrich uranium but, in addition, the tension between Hezbollah militias and Israel at the Lebanese border turned into a full-scale war. In our view, the message from the markets is two-fold:

1. On the demand side, the main piece of news is the cooling of the US housing market, inasmuch as it could foreshadow a significant slowdown in the largest oil importer in the world;

2. On the supply side, the geopolitical risk premium associated with risks of supply disruptions that has built up since 2004 is now large enough to cope with potentially dangerous events in the Middle East.

Although risks remain, we now think that the $80 peak we had called is indeed the peak and that the ebb of crude oil and refined products prices has started. While risks are probably tilted to the upside over the next six months, as we enter the heating season in the Northern hemisphere, with a global economy still growing at a rapid pace, we have marginally revised down our baseline price trajectory, by 8.7% and 12.2% for 3Q and 4Q 2006, and by 4.3% for next year. We feel vindicated by market developments in our medium-term view, i.e., crude quotes ebbing toward $50/bl in 2008, if not even considerably lower, as we will describe in one of our alternative scenarios.

Hurricane threat is serious but less than anticipated

In our April oil price forecast update, we thought that hurricane-induced supply shocks to the US Gulf Coast energy complex would again threaten energy supplies. After all, US hurricane forecasters in May were calling for 4-6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, with wind speeds over 111 mph) this season. And the memory of 2005’s record-breaking season — with four Category 5 storms, including Katrina and Rita — still lingered for market participants. Moreover, even a year after Katrina’s and Rita’s devastation, the industry has not fully restored Gulf oil and gas production. Correspondingly, we believed that even if the forecast fell short, the hurricane threat alone, combined with tight energy markets, would put a strong bid under refined product and crude quotes through the third quarter.

While the hurricane threat seems to have faded, it is premature to sound the all-clear in our view. To be sure, forecasters earlier in August downgraded the number of major hurricanes to 3-4, because water temperatures cooled somewhat, and there is no upper-level ridge pattern over the eastern US and western Atlantic to incubate an active season, as occurred in 2003-2005. Echoing those conditions, no hurricanes of any magnitude have yet appeared this season. But that does not mean they won’t; September and October are still prime hurricane months and storms can materialize in a few days, as Ernesto and Florence confirm. As a result, there is still a risk that supply shocks — or the fear of them — will lift prices from current levels.

The rise and the fall of crack spreads in the US

In our last update, we also focused on the dynamics of refined products, especially gasoline, in the US market. Refinery operators raised seasonal maintenance in the spring by as much as 20% over normal to finally catch up with downtime deferred after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and as they modified operations for new environmental regulations. That drew refined product inventories down to record lows in advance of the summer driving season. Several factors reduced supplies, snarled production at some refineries and put upward pressure on pump prices: the phase-in of Tier 2 gasoline requirements in the US to cut sulfur content that began on January 1; the renewable fuels mandate; the introduction of ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel starting in the summer of this year; and the phasing out of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and increased use of ethanol. As a result, crack spreads widened to as much as $22/bbl. and pump prices rose above $3/gallon by early August.

That was then. With the completion of refinery maintenance, the end of the summer driving season approaching, and the market having finished absorbing some of the dislocations from the environmental change, wholesale gasoline quotes have plunged more than 50 cents from their early August peak in the past month. Pump prices, as they typically do, are declining with a lag, having fallen more than 30 cents over the past four weeks. Barring further shocks, the weakness in product prices could put further pressure on crude quotes in the very short term, in our view.

The meaning of the recent ‘bear steepening’

However, our baseline scenario reflects the fact that crude and product markets are still dangerously tight, the hurricane season is far from over, and the winter heating season lies ahead. Interestingly, the recent decline in spot and short-term contracts has increased the slope of the future curve, enhancing the contango that has characterized the future curve since the beginning of the rally in 2004. The Brent future curve was practically flat when the spot price peaked out close to $80, before getting steeper, as short-term futures dipped. This was the mirror image of the ‘bull steepening’ observed earlier this year, when the slope of the curve increased, without significant changes at its short end. Our interpretation is that, this time, the markets do not yet anticipate a structural change in the relative dynamics of supply and demand in the next 8-12 months: inventories might look high in the OECD area compared to 2004, but this only offsets the fact that risks of supply disruption are also higher than they were two years ago.

Demand may be underestimated (the ‘missing barrels’)

Another reason, more analytical, makes us cautious: on the latest data gathered by the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand from OECD countries for oil products declined by 1% in the first half of this year, compared to one year ago. According to the IEA, this was enough to contain global demand significantly, despite strong consumption in non-OECD countries, particularly from Asia and the Middle East. For this year, the IEA is still betting on a modest 1.4% increase (1.2 mb/d). We are skeptical. Past experience has shown that reporting countries, especially non-OECD countries, often underestimate their own domestic demand, sometime by very large amounts. The paradox is striking: global GDP growth is likely to reach 5% this year, a speed close to the 30-year record rate recorded in 2004 (5.3%), and yet demand for crude oil would be as weak as it had been in years of much weaker GDP growth such as 2002 and 2003. Our demand equation, which dynamically links GDP growth and changes in real crude price to demand for oil, would rather suggest a 2.5 mb/d increase (+3.1%). While we easily concede that some structural changes may be underway, such as stronger conservation in OECD countries in reaction to permanently higher prices, data are still fragile and likely to be biased by under-reporting (the infamous ‘missing barrels’). Hence, we suspect that demand is actually higher than currently estimated and forecasted. Needless to say, stronger demand implies upside risks to prices.

The ‘middle distillates conundrum’ has not been solved

The ‘middle distillate conundrum’ we had stressed in our last note, namely the mismatch between marginal supply (heavy sour crude) and marginal demand (middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel) is still making the market more imbalanced than overall numbers would suggest. To put it simply, most of the existing refinery capacity has a low middle distillate yield (below 50%, according to our consultant Bjorn Dingstor from Norwegian Energy), so that, at the margin, two barrels of crude are needed to produce one barrel of highly wanted middle distillates, the rest being either high grade products (gasoline) or heavy fuel. High yield technologies such as hydro crackers do exist, but they are very expensive and their assembly takes years. Things are likely to change in the coming years, not in the coming months.

Conservation is accelerating

A few years ago, it would have been unimaginable that a major oil company would spend millions of dollars in an advertising campaign on the theme of conservation. This is now a reality, as readers may see in their favorite financial newspapers. This is no coincidence, we believe. While in the short term, demand is inelastic to prices, this is not true in the long run. Looking at annual averages, the real price of crude oil has tripled since 1999. By its magnitude, this shock is comparable to the 1979-1981 episode, but, this time, the increase was spread over seven years. Such a time span easily qualifies as ‘long run’, we think. Whether we call it conservation or price elasticity or capital to energy substitution (substituting expensive but energy-efficient technologies for cheap but energy-intensive ones), the result is the same: oil consumption per unit of GDP is now declining faster than it did during the period of cheap oil prices that followed the collapse of crude prices in 1986. The higher the price of energy relative to the cost of conservation, the stronger the incentive to be more energy-efficient. The important point here is that substitution fundamentally differs from the direct impact of higher energy prices on GDP growth. While the latter is negative but reversible (permanent oil price shocks do not have a permanent effect on GDP), the former is neutral for growth and irreversible. Despite the reservations we have made on demand data, it remains true that oil demand from OECD countries has started to slow, if not decline, despite robust GDP growth. In the US, energy consumption per unit of real GDP has declined faster in 2005 and 2006 (on our estimates) than in previous years, a pattern similar to the post 1979-1980 oil price shock.

The case of Europe, where GDP growth has sharply accelerated so far this year but where consumption of refined products has stagnated, is also striking. Going forward, slower global growth — our economics team currently anticipates 4.1% GDP growth next year, almost one full point lower than this year — will also contribute to reduce oil demand. Overall, actual demand is likely to be even lower than the 1.7 mb/d suggested by our equation.

The two-to-three year view: crude at $50 if not lower

On the supply side, our oil analysts confirm that 1) the supply of light sweet crude is due to increase by around 1 mb/d each year in 2007 and 2008, and 2) that overall refinery capacity should increase in 2007 and accelerate in 2008. In particular, the incremental gap between demand and supply of light products should shrink further over the next two years (see Easy Money Made, Douglas T. Terreson and team, September 5, 2006). Our end-2008 $50/bl target fits perfectly with our analysts’ estimate for the ‘normalized’ price of crude.

From the hot to the ultra-cool scenario

Against a backdrop of high uncertainties, both geopolitical and economic, we have kept our main alternative scenarios practically unchanged. With UN sanctions against Iran looming, we continue to see the main upside risk to crude price as triggered by a large supply disruption. In our hot scenario, we assume that Iran exports would be temporarily suspended, OPEC and non-OPEC producers having too little spare capacity to fully compensate for the loss of Iranian exports. Crude quotes would rapidly rise above $100/bl in our view, and would stay elevated for some time, before the unavoidable slowdown of the global economy would take its toll on oil demand and therefore on prices. Our ‘cool’ scenario is justified by the uncertainties on the nature of the slowdown in the US and of its consequences on Asian economies. Since the US and China are the most important marginal importers, the impact of a synchronized slowdown — not our baseline macroeconomic scenario — would probably cut prices below our medium-term target.

Several pieces of news led us to consider a third alternative scenario. First, investments in alternative (to traditional oil) sources of energy, from bio-fuel in Brazil to sand oil in Canada without forgetting very deep oil, are soaring. Second and maybe even more importantly, the main bottleneck in the global supply chain, i.e., the limited capacity to refine heavy sour crude, might disappear faster than expected. In Saudi Arabia, two giants’ refineries are now firmly on track in Jubail, one by Aramco and ConocoPhillips, the other by Aramco and Total. Together, they will produce 800 kb/d from heavy grade crude oil. In India, our analyst, Vinay Jaising, expects the refining capacity to increase to 3.4 mb/d by 2009 from 2.4 mb/d currently. The bulk of the increase will be on account of two key greenfield projects:

1) Reliance Petroleum’s project to set up a 580kb/d refinery at Jamnagar, Gujarat, at an investment of approximately US$6 billion. The refinery is likely to be commissioned in 2009.

2) Essar Oil’s project to set up a 220 kb/d refinery at Jamnagar, Gujarat. This project has been under construction for some time now and is likely to be fully commissioned in January 2007.

According to press reports (Wall Street Journal, August 29), the Reliance-Chevron project could be completed before the end of 2008. We are not qualified to discuss these projections. But one thing strikes us: so far, major oil companies were very reluctant to invest in large greenfield projects, having had their fingers burnt by overly optimistic price assumptions made in the early 1980s. But several years of very high refinery margins and the emergence of new investors such as Reliance in India, or the ambition of states such as Saudi Arabia seem to have changed their views. In our ‘ultra-cool’ scenario, a combination of a longer-than-expected economic slowdown and unexpected increases in global refinery capacity could well send the price of crude where it was in 1999, in the aftermath of the Asian crisis. This is an outlier scenario, but history has taught us that the markets tend to under-estimate the reaction of economic agents to very large changes in relative prices.

[jiesen]

Thanks for the post, Dave. I found the article very interesting!

[ParkTwain]

But that area has served as support since late 2003.
http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/09/oil_traded_belo.html

Also, regarding the article that Dave posted: can the US conserve and substitute energy more quickly than India and China will increase their energy consumption?

"energy consumption per unit of real GDP" - This is an interesting concept, but is also a specific example of the more general idea of "energy intensity."

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/efficiency/ee_gloss.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_intensity

//
Many factors influence an economy's overall energy intensity. It may reflect requirements for general standards of living and weather conditions in an economy. It is not untypical for particularly cold or hot climates to require greater energy consumption in homes and workplaces for heating (furnaces, or electric heaters) or cooling (air conditioning, fans, refrigeration). A country with an advanced standard of living is more likely to have a wider prevalence of such consumer goods and thereby be impacted in its energy intensity than one with a lower standard of living.

Energy efficiency of appliances and buildings (through use of building materials and methods, such as insulation), fuel economy of vehicles, vehicular distances travelled (frequency of travel or larger geographical distances), better methods and patterns of transportation, capacities and utility of mass transit, energy rationing or conservation efforts, 'off-grid' energy sources, and stochastic economic shocks such as disruptions of energy due to natural disasters, wars, massive power outages or unexpected new sources or efficient uses of energy may all impact overall energy intensity of a nation.

Thus, a nation with mild and temperate weather, demographic patterns of work places close to home, and uses fuel efficient vehicles, supports carpools, mass transportation or walks or rides bicycles, will have a far lower energy intensity than a nation with extreme weather conditions requiring heating and cooling, long commutes, and extensive use of generally poor fuel economy vehicles.
//

Here is a key graphic, GDP per Capita vs Energy Efficiency for the top (by GDP) 40 world economies:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gdp-energy-efficiency.jpg

That graphic is a snapshot created in 2005 (but with the timeframe of the underlying data uncited). I would like to see how each nation's location in that plot has changed over time. Notice that the chart shows both China and India as being more energy efficient than the US, but while being much less productive at per capita GDP. Also notice the most productive in GDP and with best energy efficiency (Hong Kong, Austria, and Switzerland). Are their economies predominantly service-oriented? Answer: yes, yes, and yes (thanks Diogenes). But the U.S. economy is also service-dominated; however, we are much LARGER in sq. miles of territory, so not surprisingly we use more energy to move our GDP around domestically.

[diogenes]

...(Hong Kong, Austria, and Switzerland). Are their economies predominantly service-oriented?

Hong Kong (stale data): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Hong_Kong

Edit: Better data:

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/hk.html#Econ

[DSteckler]

TNL
BDC
PRXL


Cooper candidates are stocks that have a high RS rank (95 or greater) and make a three-day pullback, either three consecutive lower lows or a combination of lower lows and inside days. Enter long on Day 4, 1 - 2 ticks above the Day-3 high. Use the exit strategy of your choice.

The trade can be worked one additional day (lower low or inside day on Day 4, enter long on Day 5 one - two ticks above the Day-4 high). If it doesn't pop on Day 5, abandon the trade.

[DSteckler]

LIFC - nice symmetrical triangle forming on the daily chart.

[DSteckler]

AZK
NTSC
CL
IMX



1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

ABT - improving technicals but estimates the next two quarters are flat YOY.

[DSteckler]

POS that may challenge its 20-day EMA today.

[DSteckler]

PTRY has made a nice run since bottoming a few weeks ago but is about to hit its 200DMA. Last time the DMA was tested (July), the failure to get through led to a sharp 20% decline.

[peanuts]

PTRY has made a nice run since bottoming a few weeks ago but is about to hit its 200DMA. Last time the DMA was tested (July), the failure to get through led to a sharp 20% decline.

Did the market have anything to do with the poor performance?

[DSteckler]

Did the market have anything to do with the poor performance?

To an extent but from a relative performance standpoint, PTRY performed worse than the market.

[DSteckler]

http://etfguide.com/view_article.php?slug=Busting%2BMarket%2BTiming%2B Tales&ID=150&D_ID=2&P_ID=7&PHPSESSID=54a8aaf05fef8478a9d05c3bfe33f5b4

[DSteckler]

Strong bounce off the 200DMA.

[DSteckler]

New six month high.

[DSteckler]

It's up 12% but on less than ADV.

[DSteckler]

Nice continuation after yesterday's bounce off the 50DMA.

[DSteckler]

Up 7% on heavy volume; highest high since 1997.

[spikefader]

Up 7% on heavy volume; highest high since 1997.
IIC's on that one.

[DSteckler]

Spike, is your new avatar the St. Louis Arch? <g>

[DSteckler]

BRR following through (up 8%) on increasing volume.

PTSI retracing about 50% of yesterday's move on decreasing volume.

[DSteckler]

Close to breaking out of a 1 1/2 week consolidation zone.

[DSteckler]

Crude's selling off on the near month contracts but the futures traders who are trading the out months are not buying into that thesis. History shows what that means.

[Lyehopper]

Crude's selling off on the near month contracts but the futures traders who are trading the out months are not buying into that thesis. History shows what that means.
So what am I supposed to do to understand this cryptic post? Study History?<sjb>

[DSteckler]

Well, if the futures traders who are trading the out months aren't buying into the theory of crude selling off in the near month, what does that sound like to you?

[Lyehopper]

Well, if the futures traders who are trading the out months aren't buying into the theory of crude selling off in the near month, what does that sound like to you?
Well, since this is a "stock pickin' forum" it's just nice to get "specific info" that's all....

I think the quick money short has already been made on the inventory build in crude over the past two weeks.... If you were paying attention that is.... I'd buy the refiners in a couple of weeks. See post #713 below....

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=1289&page=72

[DSteckler]

Well, since this is a "stock pickin' forum" it's just nice to get "specific info" that's all....



Guess that explains all your posts on cattle, then.

[DSteckler]

Very low ADX, starting to move out of the base.

[Lyehopper]

Guess that explains all your posts on cattle, then.
Cattle is "stock".... Well at least it is where I'm from....;)

[DSteckler]

Cattle is "stock".... Well at least it is where I'm from....;)

LOL! True 'nuff. And it will be where I'm moving to.

[DSteckler]

To the top of its rectangular base.

[Lyehopper]

LOL! True 'nuff. And it will be where I'm moving to.
Where's that Dave?....

We've got all kinda Yankees invading us down here.LOL!.... Back in March a Volvo driving NJ couple paid just north of $1 million cash for a 105 acre farm about two miles down the creek from my place. The property has no road frontage (only an easement).... They are raising Alpacas. :rolleyes: I heard they have paid as much as $10k for one animal. I gotta get in on this Alpaca deal.

[DSteckler]

Where's that Dave?....



Ft. Worth, TX, podner.

[Lyehopper]

Ft. Worth, TX, podner.
Yes Sir.... Now that's beef cattle country.... I've heard of 30,000 acre ranches running 7-8 thousand cow/calf pair down there.... And feed lot operators finishing 250,000+ head.... Can you imagine the sheer size of such operations? HUUUUGE!!!!

[DSteckler]

Beyond huge. A college buddy is a CPA in Ft. Worth and he has a client who own one of those ranches. Guy has a Robinson helicopter we uses to check on his spread.

[Lyehopper]

Beyond huge. A college buddy is a CPA in Ft. Worth and he has a client who own one of those ranches. Guy has a Robinson helicopter we uses to check on his spread.
I use a Polaris 4-wheel'r....SsSsSssss!:p

[DSteckler]

MFB

Cooper candidates are stocks that have a high RS rank (95 or greater) and make a three-day pullback, either three consecutive lower lows or a combination of lower lows and inside days. Enter long on Day 4, 1 - 2 ticks above the Day-3 high. Use the exit strategy of your choice.

The trade can be worked one additional day (lower low or inside day on Day 4, enter long on Day 5 one - two ticks above the Day-4 high). If it doesn't pop on Day 5, abandon the trade.

[DSteckler]

NTRI
RFIL
CTXS
MAN
TEN
TRBM
LSS
SF



1. The MAs shift from proper downtrend order (10-SMA < 20-EMA < 30-EMA) to proper uptrend order (10-SMA > 20-EMA > 30-EMA). What you're looking for is for the MAs to converge and then spread out again, giving the appearance of a bow tie.

2. Today's low must be less than yesterday's low.

3. Tomorrow, place a buy order 1 - 2 ticks above today's high good for tomorrow.

4. If not filled, continue to work the order above the prior day's high good for the next trading day until either filled or the stock trades below its 20-day EMA.

5. If filled, place a protective stop below the lowest bar in the setup.

[DSteckler]

Very low ADX (11.98) and a rising stochastic suggests a test of the recent high near 40.

[DSteckler]

Has been moving sideways after the 12% up day last week. A test of the 50DMA (27.75) is likely.

[DSteckler]

Volume is already greater than ADV.

[Lyehopper]

GIGM on a tear again. Volume is already greater than ADV.
I find it amusing that management's top (three) guys first names are Arthur, Tom and Mike....

[DSteckler]

Schwiiiing!!!!!!!!!

[DSteckler]

At the 200DMA. Low ADX and rising stochastic suggests it might finally break through to the upside. It's also poking its head through the 38.2% retracement line (using the May high and the June low as end points).

[jiesen]

Schwiiiing!!!!!!!!!

yeah, I hear that, Dave! though it's got a ways to run, if the numbers come in anywhere near the rosy projections they always put out. we'll see by next week, I should think...

too bad I sold most of my XING at 6 though.

[DSteckler]

Pretty good volume, too.

[DSteckler]

Nice consolidation underway; bullish Volume Flow Indicator on the daily chart and a 7.8% yield to boot.

[peanuts]

Pretty good volume, too.

Dave, I have breakout levels listed on my watchlist as $32.50, with +150K vol

IMO, it's not in breakout mode, yet.

[DSteckler]

Dave, I have breakout levels listed on my watchlist as $32.50, with +150K vol

IMO, it's not in breakout mode, yet.

Don't see where you're getting that breakout price from. The 30-day high was 31.85. ADV = 112,000 shares and volume right now is 107,000 shares.

[peanuts]

Don't see where you're getting that breakout price from. The 30-day high was 31.85. ADV = 112,000 shares and volume right now is 107,000 shares.

$32.50 is within a +/- .1 range from the highest closing price since momentum was lost on at the end of May... that would be the breakout level, not the greed trap level of the previous high... This will run many points once it breaks $32.50 on strong volume (30% greater than ADV)

At least, those are MY parameters for a confirmed breakout. You seem to look shorter term. What are your breakout parameters?

[DSteckler]

What are your breakout parameters?

Breakout from a rectangular base or a symmetrical triangle. The rectangle on AP started forming on 8/16.

[DSteckler]

AG - symmetrical triangle and low ADX (13.47) suggest a breakout, regardless of direction, should make a nice move.

[DSteckler]

Cleared the 200DMA and up through the triple top. IIF has the highest Alpha of the 15 ETFs I follow for this model.

Smooth sailing ahead? We'll know in the fullness of time.

[DSteckler]

Over GIGM. Thank you, Quagmire!

[DSteckler]

ODFL - extremely lows ADX (8.77) and rising stochastic suggests a continuation of the upside move. Estimates for the next two quarters are up 26% and 31% respectively, YOY.

WRLD - new ATH on light volume. Watch for a reversal.

PCP - similar to ODFL, with a low ADX and a rising stochastic. Estimates for the next two quarters are up 48% and 42% respectively, YOY.

BGC - an old favorite from way-back-when. Held a test of the 50DMA and is back through the 20-day EMA. Estimates for the next two quarters are up 104% and 79% respectively, YOY.

[DSteckler]

Interesting stuff.

http://www.ogj.com/category/online_subcategory.cfm?p=7&cat=ExplD&maxrows=21

[DSteckler]

This group has been gaining strength compared to others, using at a 3-week RS lookback period. DTLK is the leader in the group but it's extended. DSS has been slowly climbing a rising trend channel the past few weeks and held its 20-day EMA on a pullback two days ago.

Estimates for the next two quarters are up 100% and down 33% respectively, YOY.

[peanuts]

$32.50 is within a +/- .1 range from the highest closing price since momentum was lost on at the end of May... that would be the breakout level, not the greed trap level of the previous high... This will run many points once it breaks $32.50 on strong volume (30% greater than ADV)

At least, those are MY parameters for a confirmed breakout. You seem to look shorter term. What are your breakout parameters?

Dave,

AP looks like it wants to make its move past my breakout numbers... you already have it as breaking out. I wonder how you feel about it now? Nice bounce off of $32.10 right now... good volume

[DSteckler]

I still like it.

[DSteckler]

Anyone see any news?

[eliaskane]

Anyone see any news?

No news recently, but the numbers give some hints. First, PCCC crossed the magic $10 threshold on Friday. Second, insiders hold 68% and institutions 25%. That leaves a fairly small number of shares for the rest of us, so one would expect fairly large price swings. One surprising thing, to me, is that the run-up has been so well-behaved.

The chart says this could be the start of another leg up, just like those at the beginning and end of August. But keep in mind PCCC is already up 50% since its last - very nice! - earnings announcement. I'm enjoying the momentum but tightening my stop.

[mystiky]

Hi Steckler,

Any thoughts on EZPW? Looks like it has had pretty bad last two days. Do you see further down pressure? Does $34.50's look like the support of the next down move?

Thanks as always!

[DSteckler]

Hi Steckler,

Any thoughts on EZPW? Looks like it has had pretty bad last two days. Do you see further down pressure? Does $34.50's look like the support of the next down move?

Thanks as always!

I don't follow it so I can't say. Sorry!

[DSteckler]

Interesting reversal today.

[DSteckler]

Schwiiiing!

[jiesen]

Schwiiiing!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PCCC&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=xing

That's definitely the right word for it!

[DSteckler]

It's ZONS, on a breakout with good volume.

[DSteckler]

Hit 150% of the 50DMA. Will revisit once it falls to support.

[peanuts]

Hit 150% of the 50DMA. Will revisit once it falls to support.

You are not going to short?

[DSteckler]

You are not going to short?

IRA account so I can't short.

[peanuts]

IRA account so I can't short.

Do you only have an IRA account? Use your margin account

[DSteckler]

Do you only have an IRA account? Use your margin account

My short-term trading account is my IRA.

[DSteckler]

SMSI has completed five waves up and looks to have started an ABC decline. The bottom of Wave C should be around the 200DMA, currently 11.16 and rising.

[DSteckler]

AOB starting to move.

[DSteckler]

Looks to have put in a bottom. If it starts trading above the 20-day EMA there could be a push due to short covering in the O&G stocks.

[New-born baby]

AOB starting to move.

Resistance coming at $5.71 . . .$5.78.

[DSteckler]

Resistance coming at $5.71 . . .$5.78.

More like 5.85, where there's a double top.

[DSteckler]

Looks to have put in a bottom. If it starts trading above the 20-day EMA there could be a push due to short covering in the O&G stocks.


Buzneg! Out for a small loss. Should have waited until after the oil numbers cam out.

[New-born baby]

Buzneg! Out for a small loss. Should have waited until after the oil numbers cam out.

You know, I had a hint that oil numbers was going to stink up the place: gold trading lower.

[New-born baby]

What'cha think about AAPL, David?

[DSteckler]

What'cha think about AAPL, David?

Due for a pullback, probably to the 20-day EMA.

[peanuts]

Dave,

I have a stock that has declined 13% from a recent high, and has now stopped at support for the last 4 days in a row after a total 51% increase in PPS over the last 2 months (low to high)... does that give you any kind of inclination to a bounce or break of that support?

Thanks

[DSteckler]

Dave,

I have a stock that has declined 13% from a recent high, and has now stopped at support for the last 4 days in a row after a total 51% increase in PPS over the last 2 months (low to high)... does that give you any kind of inclination to a bounce or break of that support?

Thanks

What's the symbol?

[peanuts]

What's the symbol?

CECE.............. $9.50 is the support

[DSteckler]

Support on CECE is the 200DMA, currently around 8.30. It may hold at the 50DMA, currently around 9.

Technicals on the weekly chart have first rolled over so there will be downward pressure over the next couple of weeks.

[peanuts]

CECE.............. $9.50 is the support

not anymore... Looks like this is broken, now it becomes resistance.

Glad I didn't play this. I was tempted to risk a buy at $9.50... whew

[DSteckler]

TESS is breaking out, IWOV is setting up.

[DSteckler]

Very low ADX (12.65) and starting to move out of its trading range.

[DSteckler]

TESS is breaking out, IWOV is setting up.

TESS closed up 10% today. Hope y'all got some.

[DSteckler]

Cleared at triple top at 5.85.

[DSteckler]

Trading in a rising trend channel since early August. Resistance line of the channel is around 34.30.

[IIC]

Very low ADX (12.65) and starting to move out of its trading range.

Very low volume too...But I've seen these types before and sometimes they rocket on massive vol...Doug(IIC)

[DSteckler]

Bearish engulfing bar underway. Could be good for 1 to 1 1/2 points lower.

[IIC]

CAMT picked up the pace

[mrmarket]

where is Dave?

[skiracer]

where is Dave?

And while we're at it, "where is Godot"? Neither one of them has posted in a while.

[IIC]

And while we're at it, "where is Godot"? Neither one of them has posted in a while.

Refresh my memory...Who is Godot???...I did a search and I can't find any Godot

[mrmarket]

actually he might be in Cardinal land right now pulling for the birds against the mets.

[Lyehopper]

where is Dave?
He said he was moving to Texas.... Maybe he got lost, it's a pretty big place I'm told.

[Tatnic]

where is Dave?


Dave was most likely put off by the incessant demands that he provide indepth, excruciating details about the stocks he likes. I thought it was pretty obvious that he's a technical trader and that one does not need 2 dozen reasons to initiate a trade based on technicals? I apologize if I'm oversimplifying, but in fairness to Dave he explained why he couldn't provide a thesis for each stock pick. Granted he offended a few posters in the process but that's Dave. I would suggest that if the offended posters are too thin-skinned to take some blunt criticism from Dave or anyone else, that they may not be able to handle the extreme rudeness that the market tends to offer on a regular basis. Just my thoughts.

[mrmarket]

Dave was most likely put off by the incessant demands that he provide indepth, excruciating details about the stocks he likes. I thought it was pretty obvious that he's a technical trader and that one does not need 2 dozen reasons to initiate a trade based on technicals? I apologize if I'm oversimplifying, but in fairness to Dave he explained why he couldn't provide a thesis for each stock pick. Granted he offended a few posters in the process but that's Dave. I would suggest that if the offended posters are too thin-skinned to take some blunt criticism from Dave or anyone else, that they may not be able to handle the extreme rudeness that the market tends to offer on a regular basis. Just my thoughts.

I'll miss him. He is an excellent trader.

[Lyehopper]

I would suggest that if the offended posters are too thin-skinned to take some blunt criticism from Dave or anyone else, that they may not be able to handle the extreme rudeness that the market tends to offer on a regular basis. Just my thoughts.
Dave always has "an opinion" and many times it's critical. I personally don't mind critical posts and I read Dave's thread (and everyone elses for that matter). But in "their" defense the "members" who questioned Dave, still seem to be here. I don't think they are "offended".... Truth be known, maybe Dave is a bit "thin-skinned"....

[RL]

Maybe Dave Isn't Dave:confused:

[Tatnic]

Dave always has "an opinion" and many times it's critical. I personally don't mind critical posts and I read Dave's thread (and everyone elses for that matter). But in "their" defense the "members" who questioned Dave, still seem to be here. I don't think they are "offended".... Truth be known, maybe Dave is a bit "thin-skinned"....

Good point Lye... You're pretty damn smart for a rancher...were you a Hokie?

[Lyehopper]

Good point Lye... You're pretty damn smart for a rancher...were you a Hokie?
Thanks.... But in defense of cattlemen.....SsSsSssssss!

Tatnic.... I'm from NC originally but I've been in SW VA since "84" so I've lived here longer than I lived there, thus I claim to be a Virginian now. (I absolutely love it here btw).... I was always an NC State Wolfpack fan. "State" is an Ag school much like VA Tech so my adopted favorite school is VA Tech, but I root for the Pack every chance I get. As for college? I attended UHN.... The University of Hard Knocks.LOL!

[Tatnic]

Thanks.... But in defense of cattlemen.....SsSsSssssss!

Tatnic.... I'm from NC originally but I've been in SW VA since "84" so I've lived here longer than I lived there, thus I claim to be a Virginian now. (I absolutely love it here btw).... I was always an NC State Wolfpack fan. "State" is an Ag school much like VA Tech so my adopted favorite school is VA Tech, but I root for the Pack every chance I get. As for college? I attended UHN.... The University of Hard Knocks.LOL!

lol...you ranchers are the smart ones. Ever since I was a youngun I've wanted to live on a farm. The closest I came was when I lived on a hog farm along the New River south of Blacksburg (near the mouth of Tom's Creek)...damned if I can remember what the area was called but it'll come to me eventually. The guy that owned the farm (also raised quite a few beef critters) was a coach at Tech, but I can't recall his name either.

Btw...Frank Beemer was my baseball coach in Radford (he coached baseball and football there before going to Tech) and he was one of the most likeable and well-respected guys you'd ever run into. I not surprised to see him doing so well at Tech.

[Rob]

. . . along the New River south of Blacksburg (near the mouth of Tom's Creek) . . . I can['t] remember what the area was called . . .Just guessing here ... was it Eggleston Flats? That's one of the few places I know of in that general area, because it's where Adam Harmon found Mary Draper Ingles almost dead after she escaped from the Shawnee in 1755 and walked all the way home from Kentucky, near Ohio. I've been down there, and it looks like a beautiful, peaceful place.

Blacksburg used to be known as "Draper's Meadow" in the old days.

[Lyehopper]

Just guessing here ... was it Eggleston Flats? That's one of the few places I know of in that general area, because it's where Adam Harmon found Mary Draper Ingles almost dead after she escaped from the Shawnee in 1755 and walked all the way home from Kentucky, near Ohio. I've been down there, and it looks like a beautiful, peaceful place.

Blacksburg used to be known as "Draper's Meadow" in the old days.
Roanoke was known as "Big Lick"....

Hey Rob.... In Bedford County there's an area called "Body Camp".... Do you know about that?

[Tatnic]

Just guessing here ... was it Eggleston Flats? That's one of the few places I know of in that general area, because it's where Adam Harmon found Mary Draper Ingles almost dead after she escaped from the Shawnee in 1755 and walked all the way home from Kentucky, near Ohio. I've been down there, and it looks like a beautiful, peaceful place.

Blacksburg used to be known as "Draper's Meadow" in the old days.

No it wasn't quite that far downriver...I was only a few miles south of Price's Forks. I haven't been back to that neck of the woods in a long time. I guessing that many of the farms have been subdivided by now. It was at the time very beautiful country, maybe it still is!

[Tatnic]

Just guessing here ... was it Eggleston Flats?


Whitethorn was the name I was trying to rememeber. So Rob, where in God's country are you? My wife and I were remembering a trip to Devon and how beautiful it was with all the sheep pastures stretching way up into the wooded hills. I told her that the one area in the US that reminds me of Devon is Virginia and how it can just leave you speechless. I don't miss the hot summers and high humidity but I do miss the mountains and valleys.

[Rob]

Roanoke was known as "Big Lick".... Hey Rob.... In Bedford County there's an area called "Body Camp".... Do you know about that?Caustic Soda, yeah the name "Big Lick" came from a huge salt lick that used to draw all the wildlife to the area before civilization moved in. I've read that the lick was about where the downtown section of Campbell Ave. is. I've never heard of Body Camp. Sounds like a nudist colony.

So Rob, where in God's country are you?I've lived in Roanoke since 1991, would have been born here if my dad's job didn't move him out in the early 50s. I've got very deep family roots in Virginia. I love it here.

[peanuts]

Dave,

I'm sure that you already know about this one: FTK dude

I thought it would be a good oil service stock for you. I saw the chart and said to myself, "I bet Dave is on this already"

Well, are ya?

I also noticed that your PCCC is acting nicely!

[DSteckler]

http://www.rigzone.com/

[mrmarket]

Steckler is Baaaack! Good to see you davey.

[DSteckler]

Two people quoted in this article, Dick Arms and Louise Yamada, are members of AAPTA (American Association of Profesisonal Technical Analysts).

Technical Research Recovers
George B. Moriarty
December 4, 2006

In 2005, Citigroup and Prudential, two homes of robust technical analysis businesses, shuttered their TA departments. While the decision went largely unnoticed by the mainstream media, it was big news in the technician world because the two firms hadn't just closed businesses, they had excised two of the legends of TA - Louise Yamada and Ralph Acampora.

Long a stepchild in the analysis process, TA found itself on the outs at these two firms due, sources say, in equal part to cost concerns and revenue, as the banks couldn't determine how to get paid for the technicians' services.

The trouble in grasping the value of technical research came from the fact that, as opposed to the perceived inherent value in fundamental analysis, technical (or market) analysis doesn't provide an edge to the clients. Hence TA, among the Wall Street firms, began its death march.

However, a funny thing happened on the way to the funeral. TA has found its niche, and has begun a comeback that adherents argue proves the value of the skill even as its critics continue to doubt the value technical analysis delivers. And ultimately, an overview of the history of TA on the Street shows that what has happened is not so much a rebirth as a return to what gave the skill its start and now gives it new strength.

Commodity or Necessity?
The crux of the debate about the value of technical analysis begins at the core of the discipline. Merrill Lynch analyst Mary Ann Bartels points out that Charles Dow was among the first technical analysts, even though he probably didn't know what he was creating back in the late 1800s.

"In those days, there was no fundamental data available to investors," Bartels says. "So he started watching market behavior and developed his economic theory. The information that can be drawn from the ticker tape is amazing."

And that is the center of the debate. The tape presents the supply and demand picture, and some say that deciphering this depiction of supply and demand has become a commodity skill, and there's no need to pay Wall Street research prices for it. Be it the Dow Jones Industrial Average, General Electric or Baidu.com, the chart that appears with each stock quote you pull up presents a line representing the balance between buyers and sellers.

The doubters see the science of TA as having become a commodity that provides users with no edge, but adherents preach the value lying behind the daily chart that comes with every stock quote on Yahoo! Finance and that is waiting to impart a longer-term view of the market.

Louise Yamada, who now runs her own firm, says the basic concepts behind TA are a tool in the investment process, but that tool is not the complete process.

"It studies supply and demand. That's all it does," Yamada says. "The study is tracking what other people are doing with their money. It helps because when a chart moves out of a neutral trend, that means there is aggressive demand."

Indeed, Yamada takes that supply and demand to the extreme long term. She notes that Alan Shaw, who hired her to replace Ralph Acampora, identified in 1981 a break in a trend of interest rates that extended back to 1946, and that she thinks the current rate environment may just now be breaking that trend anew.

And it is that long-term view that TA practitioners argue separates the trained technician (yes, there are training courses and certifications), who can take that supply and demand representation and layer onto it a valuable perspective, from the lay users who cannot grasp the intricacies of the charts. For instance, Helene Meisler, an independent analyst who writes a trading newsletter for TheStreet.com, says the key is looking at the historic pattern of a chart, and she shares how her analysis of the chart of General Motors helped her land a job at Goldman Sachs' trading desk in the late 1980s. She received a call from the head of administration in sales and trading who asked her to look at General Motors and "do whatever it is you do" and they'd send a runner over to get it. In looking at the chart, she saw a pattern that indicated the stock could make a sharp move higher.

"I said if GM broke through $43.50 it was going to go to around $46 or $47," Meisler says. "I walked into the interview and the first person I met with was Bob Mnuchin, the partner in charge of trading at the time, who said, We're long 100,000 shares of Motors in here. At Goldman, you have to put your money where your mouth is.'"

The stock went up two and a half points that day, and Meisler landed a job as a technical analyst on the trading desk. (Meisler left the firm in 1992, and Goldman does not currently employ any technical analysts in its research department.)

Buyside Doesn't Buy
Meisler's story makes for compelling cocktail party talk, but it fails to appease the doubters, and buyside investors have some real issues with TA. One broker who focuses exclusively on hedge funds says there's absolutely no secret sauce to TA and that everyone sees the same thing, so he asks, "What's the value of using sellside technical analysis?"

Then, speaking to the mindset of the biggest of fishes, a fund-of-hedge-funds manager says that in a conversation with SAC Capital's Steve Cohen, he learned that the firm began as a largely technical trading house but had transformed itself into a fundamentals-oriented entity over time. SAC on any given day, some estimates say, can account for as much as 3% of daily volume on the NYSE and 1% of daily volume on Nasdaq.

And it's not just nonbelievers who question the value of institutional TA for the buyside. Charles Norton, principal at GNI Capital, says his firm combines the two disciplines and requires any investment employee to have read famed investor William O'Neil's book before they start. "We use the fundamentals to determine what to do, and the technicals to determine when to do it," he says. "You can have the greatest fundamental idea, but without the right timing, it means little."

That belief in the value of TA does not keep him from questioning the utility of Wall Street technical research for the buyside. Norton says technically focused hedge funds will generally have their own services in-house and might use outside services for an alternate viewpoint, but technical analysis from the sellside won't be as valuable.

"A fundamental analyst might offer the buyside something of value, be it access or something else," he says. "I don't think TA from an outside vendor, be it broker or otherwise, provides as much value, because buyside technicians tend to have their own recipe."

Practicing technicians though believe that the commoditized aspects of TA represent noise around the larger stories of the charts. Many people can spot a chart that is "breaking out" and moving averages and Bollinger Bands can be found on most quote engines. The harder part of technical research, they argue is in identifying what the intermarket relationships, first put into book form by John Murphy, are telling investors. For instance, one technician says a look at the equity, fixed income and commodity markets shows there is currently a much tighter noose around trends and that is leading to greater cyclicality. The increased cyclicality stems from the impact of hedge funds on the market, who are crowding into similar trades.

So perhaps it is no surprise that Wall Street firms have shied away from technical research, as it does seem to have a finite audience. Indeed, some firms have never employed full-time technicians in their research department. But it does bear noting that many firms have technicians employed in their proprietary trading areas and on trading floors in general (for example Morgan Stanley's Rick Bensignor reportedly moved to prop trading in 2005). Several sources said they knew of firms expanding their technical presence on trading floors and that one large bank was adding a technician to each trading group. Interestingly, none of the people would go on the record discussing the trading strategy.

But the legacy of technicians who made their mark on the research landscape is long and storied. When Yamada and Acampora broke into the business, the leaders were Smith Barney's Alan Shaw and Merrill Lynch's Bob Farrell. But emphasizing how close-knit the community was then, and remains today, is that Acampora and Yamada, who it should be noted remain among the top analysts today according to Institutional Investor's annual rankings, both came through the Shaw pipeline.

The Winds of Change
Yamada says that when Smith Barney was independent, the technical analysis was an integral part of the research process. The goal then was to help institutions limit risk and identify reward. But on reflection, she says that as the firm grew, technical research may not have been perceived as such an integral part of the research presentation.

"My hunch is that they felt as they were cutting budgets...[that TA was] an area that could be cut," Yamada says.
For his part, Acampora attributes Prudential's decision to cut the group loose in October 2005 to a business decision.
"The industry's changing. Prudential didn't let us go because of quality or because the clients didn't want us," Acampora says. "They let us go because they couldn't figure out how they get paid."

TA Today
And that brings us to today. With the firings of Yamada and Acampora a year behind us, where is TA's value? And if established shops like Citigroup and Prudential Equity aren't able to find value or get compensated for technical analysis, is there any demand?

The evidence, across all types of traders, is that demand is there and the money being paid for it is meaningful.
Ciitigroup's Smith Barney dissolved its US technical analysis practice on Yamada's departure and has not resuscitated it within the research group. However, the firm does maintain a TA group outside the US, and the bank's private client division has retained an outside provider to meet clients' demands. Prudential has not replaced its analysts.

Louise Yamada was lured back to the business by pension fund and institutional clients that clamored for her long-term views, which cater to their objectives. Indeed, she points out that she does more long-term analysis than most technicians, having begun making a long-term case for gold in 2000 and for oil in 2003.

As for Ralph Acampora, he landed at Knight, where CEO Thomas Joyce said he didn't want fundamental analysis, he wanted technical analysis because Knight is in the business of capturing orders. "He told me, We trade everything, and you track everything. Technical makes sense for me and my clients,'" says Acampora.

Since starting at Knight in 2005, Acampora has launched three products: an intraday service to capture momentum; a daily letter that provides ideas that can last a few months; and a weekly letter, which he authors, that provides ideas with a shelf life of 12 to 18 months. And the firm keeps bolting new products, such as foreign exchange, on to the research effort.

It's not just the new kids on the block expanding, either. Dick Arms, who created the Arms Index, or TRIN, in 1967, has recently launched new TRINs in Europe and in Australia. (The TRIN is a volume-based indicator of market breadth.)

"I went to the IFTA meeting and gave a speech introducing the European TRIN," Arms says. "There's a good deal more international interest, which started with a cocktail conversation that got me started in Australia."

Merrill Lynch's Bartels says she would argue there's been an increase in demand for what her shop calls "market analysis" over the past couple years. Merrill Lynch remains committed to this effort, and its team consists of six people and is an integral part of the research function. Bartels says that some of the increasing demand for her team's services might stem from the volatility created by hedge funds.

"It's not about looking at individual charts. It's looking at the market dynamics and what's happening in the whole market and not one individual pattern," she says. "Our value- added is being able to be anticipatory as to where the major moves are about to occur."

Ultimately the debate on technical analysis always comes back to the value it adds to the research effort, and Acampora's reply to a skeptical SEC attorney in December 2004 cuts to the heart of that value proposition.

"He asked me, What is a fact on that chart?'" Acampora says. "I said price is a fact. You restate earnings, but you never restate that chart."

(c) 2006 Investment Dealers' Digest Magazine and SourceMedia, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

[ParkTwain]

Good morning Dave,

Just wondering whether you are on board (in agreement) with Carl Swenlin's interpretation of these large-scale technical indicators. I find them to be very interesting in providing context for our day-to-day market battles and in explaining how the market got from July to October this year. His discussion is pretty persuasive to me.

"SENTIMENT NOT BULLISH ENOUGH FOR TOP"
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/061201_rr.html

"CRASH TALK IS PREMATURE"
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/061208_crash.html

[DSteckler]

Good morning Dave,

Just wondering whether you are on board (in agreement) with Carl Swenlin's interpretation of these large-scale technical indicators. I find them to be very interesting in providing context for our day-to-day market battles and in explaining how the market got from July to October this year. His discussion is pretty persuasive to me.

"SENTIMENT NOT BULLISH ENOUGH FOR TOP"
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/061201_rr.html

The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio is a derivitive of the Nova/Ursa Ratio, which is what was formally used to measure sentiment. The problem with the CFR is that Rydex has added so many funds in the last 12 - 18 months that you shouldn't compare readings from 2004 with 2005, or 2005 with 2006, like Swenlin does.

"CRASH TALK IS PREMATURE"
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/061208_crash.html

Seasonal bias is to the upside from now through the end of the year.

[mystiky]

Hi Steckler,

Miss seeing you more often here...

If you have a minute, what are your thoughts on IIG ?

Looks like the 10.2 float with 5.5 mil short shares is causing some headaches for the shorts.

[DSteckler]

Chart looks nice, Mystiky. Definitely accumulation under way.

[Runner]

Dave, I was looking at WHQ and was wondering what your thoughts are on the huge volume spikes that I noticed on the chart? You know I don't look at volume much but I did turn volume bars on trying to make sense of it.

[DSteckler]

Appears to be distribution, Runner.

[Runner]

Appears to be distribution, Runner.

Thanx Dave!

[DSteckler]

Well, so much for distribution! I really meant to say accumulation....<vbg>

[Runner]

I notice a little pop. It was on my list but I just got home and missed it!!
I'm getting interested in Medical related groups at this time... What are ya watching Dave?

[Lyehopper]

Hey Dave.... Saw on the news last night how GS is handing out $Billions in bonus' this year.... Some mgt getting as much as $20 million checks EACH!

Might not be such a bad job, huh?

[billyjoe]

Lye,
I'll bet the guy who cleans the GS restrooms gets the same thing he gets every other day.

---------billyjoe

[DSteckler]

What are ya watching Dave?

A container of Vicodin. I just got back from the oral surgeon.

[mrmarket]

Mr. Steckler has unsubscribed from mrmarketishuge.com. I will miss him.

[Websman]

I think Dave made too much money this year...

[IIC]

I'm sorry to see Dave go...He was a bit condescending and somewhat weak in the humour department...But I picked up some useful tips from him...Best of luck to him...Doug(IIC)

[dmk112]

Why did he leave?

[IIC]

Why did he leave?

Because he doesn't like all the Non-Stock related posts IMO

[skiracer]

Because he doesn't like all the Non-Stock related posts IMO

It has gotten kind of lopsided in the non-stock related commentary lately.

[jiesen]

It has gotten kind of lopsided in the non-stock related commentary lately.

True, and I think that (this) is what annoyed him more than anything else. He is an arrogant dude, and occasionally wrong... but I believe he is quite a sharp guy, and was never afraid to speak his mind. I also miss him greatly, and hope that he comes back even if it's just to complain about our OT banter.

He is definitely right, though, that this board needs more stock talk.

[skiracer]

True, and I think that (this) is what annoyed him more than anything else. He is an arrogant dude, and occasionally wrong... but I believe he is quite a sharp guy, and was never afraid to speak his mind. I also miss him greatly, and hope that he comes back even if it's just to complain about our OT banter.

He is definitely right, though, that this board needs more stock talk.

I liked the guy and he knew what he was talking about although authorative at times. He is a straight shooter and his positives far outweighed his negatives. He just wanted to talk about stocks rather than alot of the other stuff that gets air time here. Everyone does what they want to do. I have to admire him for that. You never realize how much someone means to you until they're gone. I would like to see him come back. We can't afford to lose guys of his calibre and knowledge regardless of his personality and whether or not you agree with him or not.

[mrmarket]

True, and I think that (this) is what annoyed him more than anything else. He is an arrogant dude, and occasionally wrong... but I believe he is quite a sharp guy, and was never afraid to speak his mind. I also miss him greatly, and hope that he comes back even if it's just to complain about our OT banter.

He is definitely right, though, that this board needs more stock talk.

major suckage

[mrmarket]

I must say I appreciated Steckler's input on this forum.

Quite frankly, I was disappointed in his behavior sometimes. He seemed to take great glee in watching AXR plummet and had a lot of fun at my expense. When the stock turned around (and did it ever) he never once offered congratulations or admitted that his call was wrong on AXR. (Major suckage).

It would have been nice if he had explained his reasoning for the bashing of this stock and to see his acceptance that the other side was correct.

It's funny, but he seemed to have disappeared as soon as AXR turned around. Just my 2 cents.

[peanuts]

It's funny, but he seemed to have disappeared as soon as AXR turned around. Just my 2 cents.

I also noticed his disapearance around this time. I always thought that it might have something to do with this post: LINK (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=65923&postcount=400)

I've always regretted the way I structured that message. Maybe I hurt his delicate feelings?

Of course, it may just be that many of his predictions have not come true, and many of his stocks did not breakout according to his standards. Maybe he internally masked his hatred for this group by convincing himself that it was us who was causing him so much displeasure here, and not his lousy attitude or poor stock-picking performance. Honestly, I used him as a contrarian indicator on many trades. I made money by going opposite DSteckler. I didn't think much of his ideas or his loose reccommendations. What 'good' did he bring to the table? Did we really lose much?

So long, Dave

[Tatnic]

I also noticed his disapearance around this time. I always thought that it might have something to do with this post: LINK (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=65923&postcount=400)

I've always regretted the way I structured that message. Maybe I hurt his delicate feelings?

Of course, it may just be that many of his predictions have not come true, and many of his stocks did not breakout according to his standards. Maybe he internally masked his hatred for this group by convincing himself that it was us who was causing him so much displeasure here, and not his lousy attitude or poor stock-picking performance. Honestly, I used him as a contrarian indicator on many trades. I made money by going opposite DSteckler. I didn't think much of his ideas or his loose reccommendations. What 'good' did he bring to the table? Did we really lose much?

So long, Dave

that's a good one peanut. Lets see how you do over the next few weeks before we crown you king of the markets.

[peanuts]

that's a good one peanut. Lets see how you do over the next few weeks before we crown you king of the markets.

What do you mean by this post?

[Websman]

Steckler, Shmeckler.... Bahhhhhhhhhhh

[IIC]

I also noticed his disapearance around this time. I always thought that it might have something to do with this post: LINK (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=65923&postcount=400)

I've always regretted the way I structured that message. Maybe I hurt his delicate feelings?


Well Peanuts...I sorta thought the same thing about your post. He dropped off from regular posting right after that...Although I doubt that one post made him leave...Maybe it was his breaking point where he just said "To h*ll with it"

My breaking point is 1000 critical posts directed at me...So far I've only seen 950 of them...But then again...900 of 'em were posted by you ;)

[skiracer]

What do you mean by this post?

I think that we are all legends in our own minds. The difference being that some of us actually believe it. I also think that you already know the answer to your question so why ask it? Dave just wasn't getting enough satisfaction out of the general topics being discussed here and was man enough to understand that it was becoming a waste of his time. Time being as valuable a commodity as it is. I don't beleive for a minute that Peanuts post or that Peanuts could drive him off with anything he said to Dave. Dave just got tired of us and what is going on here in general and decided he had enough. We all have our idiocyrancies and limitations as did Dave. Now that he is gone his absense is more noticeable to the point that we are discussing it at length. I think we all have to share the responsibility for driving him off. But so what. What's more important is where do we go from here.

[Karel]

Boys and girls, Dave has left. I think all this has been said in the past already and repeating it does not serve much of a purpose. Dave is no longer in a position to answer posts; let it go.

Regards,

Karel

[Tatnic]

What do you mean by this post?

I'm pretty sure you know what I meant. And Dave didn't leave this site because he hated you and everyone else...he left because this site is basically a recess site. YOu know, a place for you to play while you're at work. When you finally get booted from your job because you spend so much time on this site when you should be working, and are forced to fend for yourself for a dozen years or so in the markets, then come back and see how arrogant you really are. At this point, you're nothing because you have nothing on the line except play money. You'll probably never understand this and thats fine.

[mrmarket]

I'm pretty sure you know what I meant. And Dave didn't leave this site because he hated you and everyone else...he left because this site is basically a recess site. YOu know, a place for you to play while you're at work. When you finally get booted from your job because you spend so much time on this site when you should be working, and are forced to fend for yourself for a dozen years or so in the markets, then come back and see how arrogant you really are. At this point, you're nothing because you have nothing on the line except play money. You'll probably never understand this and thats fine.

Tatnic..that's pretty harsh. Who pissed in your cheerios this morning?

[peanuts]

Tatnic..that's pretty harsh. Who pissed in your cheerios this morning?

hehehehe.... he's swinging for the fences, big Ern. Too bad he just struck out.

Hey Tatnic,

Just to let you know- you're in an environment which your observations are failing your reason. The conclusions which you've been forming are based on assumptions which your reason has incorrectly deduced. Your whole basis for any argument is flawed because you have not truely observed and become aware of where you are. I implore you to wake up before posting such a moronic statement in the future.

And if you want to know something about me, just ask. You've made yourself look pretty foolish. I laughed at your post. I thought that maybe you were messing with me at first. But I don't think that anymore.

[IIC]

..he left because this site is basically a recess site. YOu know, a place for you to play while you're at work. When you finally get booted from your job because you spend so much time on this site when you should be working

Tatnic...So are you saying that Dave got fired from his job???

[dmk112]

I'm pretty sure you know what I meant. And Dave didn't leave this site because he hated you and everyone else...he left because this site is basically a recess site. YOu know, a place for you to play while you're at work. When you finally get booted from your job because you spend so much time on this site when you should be working, and are forced to fend for yourself for a dozen years or so in the markets, then come back and see how arrogant you really are. At this point, you're nothing because you have nothing on the line except play money. You'll probably never understand this and thats fine.

LMAO... tatnic you're too much dude, go drink a beer.

[Lyehopper]

Tatnic...So are you saying that Dave got fired from his job???
LOL!!!! That must be what happened and he's very bitter and blames Peanuts for it....

btw, I "wrote myself up" today for spending too much time on this forum. Two more warnings and I'll fire myself.

[spikefader]

SssSssSss ... I've chuckled at a couple of things said in this thread lately...comments by Lye, IIC, mrmarket, and Webs. What would this place be like without the laffs?!

So in that tone, I think I'm gonna miss Stinky Steckler as much as he liked the Fuzzy Counting theory. hehe

[mrmarket]

I like Tatnic's picks better.

[IIC]

I like Tatnic's picks better.

I am not doubting that Tatnic is good at what he does...But, I liked Dave...I think that I could've taught him a few things in the "Humour Department". But he could teach me a few things in the "Technical Analysis Department"...I wish him the best and I hope he keeps in touch...Doug(IIC)